I’m calling “top” of the market for Northern NJ, from here on out I think we’re going to start to see an even greater increase in inventory and the beginnings of a significant drop in prices. If you haven’t sold yet, there isn’t a better time to lock in the gains, if you are thinking about buying, my suggestion is to hold off, you’ve got nothing to gain and everything to lose.
September GSMLS Active Listings
This is a 7.5% jump in inventory for the first 21 days of September. At this rate we may see a 10% increase this month. Now, I’m not a “Realt*r” or even a real estate professional, but I do know some basic economics, and what this is showing us is that supply is increasing. If demand doesn’t increase to match, prices come down.
So how does demand look? Sales look to be taking a hit compared with last month, GSMLS sales for August came in a 3662, the September numbers to date are only at 2040. Given the 9 days remaining in the month, I’d estimate this months sales to come in at somewhere around 2900. If this isn’t evidence of demand dropping, I don’t know what is.
GSMLS doesn’t give a good picture for certain counties, namely Bergen and Hudson, so here is the NJMLS data:
September Active NJMLS Listings
The active listings increase looks to be similar to the GSMLS numbers (keep in mind there are overlapping listings, you can’t simply add these figures together).
Now, it’s easy to be persuaded to call “TOP” on a quickly increasing market, a number of people thought the housing bubble peaked last year, but I preferred to gather my own data and wait until I saw a real downturn develop. It certainly wasn’t last month, but September definately looks like the peak. One last tidbit, keep in mind sales data is a lagging indicator, the peak very well may have been August or even July in certain counties.