September inventory numbers are in! Since I do my data gathering around noon each day, I’m going to post this data up a bit earlier than I was planning. I’d still like to wait until sometime after close of business tonite to tally up the sales data for the month, just to be sure the last minute additions make into the stats (I don’t want to be accused of somehow doctoring or being selective about my stats).
For new readers, I define Northern New Jersey as the following counties: Bergen, Essex, Hudson, Morris, Somerset, Sussex, Union, and Warren (Sorry, Middlesex numbers weren’t included this month).
Now, I admit I was expecting a jump in numbers, but by the half way point I knew my guess was way off. So here it is, without further ado, the figures please..
Yes, 10.5% increase in active listings on GSMLS in one single month. Why? Are more people listing? Are fewer selling? Unfortunately, I wish I had access to the database to run some more complex queries and stats, but I don’t. If anyone would like to make that data available to me, I’d love to see it. Anyhow, back to the topic at hand, it looks like the jump was a bit of both. Last minute sellers trying to catch the bandwagon before it’s long gone, and a serious drop in sales in the September numbers (you’ll need to wait until tomorrow to see those).
So lets see the numbers (Counties include: Bergen, Essex, Hudson, Morris, Passaic, Somerset, Sussex, Union, and Warren).
9/1/2005 – 11405
9/30/2005 – 12612
There was a steady rise each day, with only a single day drop. I think the graph can help illustrate the trend.
It’s hard to argue that prices will remain stable with supply increasing at this rate. If this trend continues there will be significant pricing pressure on sellers in the near future. I expect this trend to continue through the winter months as we’re heading into the winter sales slump. While I don’t believe we’ll see large price changes in a short period of time (due to both buyer and seller psychology), I do believe we’re past the peak of this parabola. Nowhere to go now but down.
Buyers, please don’t feel like somehow you are going to be ‘priced out‘ or are ‘missing the boat‘. If you buy at this point you are the greater fool. Don’t be pressured into a sale by your agent, family, or friends. Believe me when I tell you that you have nothing to gain and everything to lose.