January 2006


Bloomberg presented his preliminary budget earlier today. While there certainly was coverage in the local and nationwide press, one small bit seems to have been overlooked. Thanks to the readers that brought this piece of information to our attention. It seems that Bloomberg had the common sense to arrange the budget to accomodate for the potential shortfall in real estate transaction taxes.

From the NYC website:

MAYOR BLOOMBERG PRESENTS $52.2 BILLION FY 2007 PRELIMINARY BUDGET

New York’s real estate market is expected to slow, however, with a 10% decline in home prices, a 14% decline in home sales over the next few years and a significant decline in real estate transaction taxes that have buoyed the City’s tax revenue in the last few fiscal years.

Bloomberg certainly hasn’t been holding back any punches when it comes to real estate. In an environment where real estate economists have been predicting nothing but gains, Bloomberg has joined the ranks of the unconvinced.

Isn’t NYC too “special” for it’s real estate values to ever fall? This isn’t just another Bubble Blogger or Doom and Gloom Economist making predictions of a decline, this is the Mayor expecting a 10% decline in home prices. That’s a rather precipitous decline for an asset that “doesn’t ever go down.”.

Caveat Emptor!
Grim

With a wave of his hand and a quarter point increase, Greenspan leaves the helm of the fed. I’m not going to bother with the linguistic puzzle games everyone else is playing.

Fed Ups Key Rate As Greenspan Retires

Fed raises rates again

Federal Reserve raised a key short-term interest rate Tuesday another quarter of a percentage point and said it may have to raise rates further in chairman Alan Greenspan’s last meeting after more than 18 years at the helm of the central bank.

Speculation now turns to what new Fed chairman Ben Bernanke, who officially takes over on Feb. 1, will do when the Fed’s monetary policy committee meets next on March 28.

Full text of the statement:

The Federal Open Market Committee decided today to raise its target for the federal funds rate by 25 basis points to 4 1/2 percent.

Although recent economic data have been uneven, the expansion in economic activity appears solid. Core inflation has stayed relatively low in recent months and longer-term inflation expectations remain contained. Nevertheless, possible increases in resource utilization as well as elevated energy prices have the potential to add to inflation pressures.

The Committee judges that some further policy firming may be needed to keep the risks to the attainment of both sustainable economic growth and price stability roughly in balance. In any event, the Committee will respond to changes in economic prospects as needed to foster these objectives.

Voting for the FOMC monetary policy action were: Alan Greenspan, Chairman; Timothy F. Geithner, Vice Chairman; Susan S. Bies; Roger W. Ferguson, Jr.; Jack Guynn; Donald L. Kohn; Jeffrey M. Lacker; Mark W. Olson; Sandra Pianalto; and Janet L. Yellen.

In a related action, the Board of Governors unanimously approved a 25-basis-point increase in the discount rate to 5 1/2 percent. In taking this action, the Board approved the requests submitted by the Boards of Directors of the Federal Reserve Banks of Boston, New York, Philadelphia, Cleveland Richmond, Atlanta, Chicago, St. Louis, Kansas City, Dallas and San Francisco.

Caveat Emptor!
Grim

Readers will immediately recognize the name of real estate shill, Warren Boroson..

If not, please read this older post:

Warren Boroson Background

Warren blessed us with another real estate gem this past week:

Morris’ housing market ‘vibrant;’ prices up 13.5%

I was a bit upset about the bubble references in this piece, so I decided to do a bit more digging on Mr. Boroson’s real estate holdings (he is, afterall, a renowned real estate author and investor).

So I searched the Bergen county tax records database, which turned up nothing. Interesting, since his website has him living in Hackensack, NJ. I did some more sleuthing and found this article:

Is it time to cash in on your home?

Who else might want to seize the opportunity to take profits? Anyone with more house than they really need. Warren and Rebecca Boroson bought their Glen Rock, N.J., home 29 years ago for $69,900 and raised their two sons there. But now, says Warren, “our children are grown and out of the house. We had four bedrooms, which is three more to mess up than we needed.” Last year the Borosons sold for $579,000 and moved to a high-rise apartment in Hackensack, N.J., with a doorman and a swimming pool.

“We sold mainly to lock in the profit,” Warren says. “It was a little faster than we’d planned. But if you’re planning to sell in a few years, you might as well do it now while you’re sure the market is still good.”

Warren writes a financial column for the Morris County, N.J., Daily Record that is syndicated nationwide. With an eye on retirement (he’s 69), he invested his cashed-out home equity in a laddered portfolio of bonds.

Are you kidding me? You’ve got to be kidding me? This shill is one of the biggest real estate cheerleaders in North Jersey, but he himself has since sold his home and now rents an apartment? Is anyone here as outraged as I am about this? He continually writes pieces that read like real estate advertisements, but he himself has realized that the market was overpriced and has “cashed out”.

I can’t believe his trash is peddled to the public as journalism.

Caveat Emptor!
Grim

Nine months of zero to negative savings certainly makes a trend.

U.S. Dec. Personal Spending Rises 0.9%; Incomes Increase 0.4%

U.S. personal spending increased more than expected in December as incomes grew, a government report showed, suggesting a pickup in demand at the end of 2005 that may help boost first-quarter growth.

The 0.9 percent increase in purchases, the most in five months, followed a 0.5 percent November gain that was larger than previously reported, the Commerce Department said today in Washington. The report’s price gauge tied to spending patterns and excluding food and energy, the Federal Reserve’s preferred measure for tracking inflation, rose 0.1 percent in December and was up 1.9 percent for all of 2005.

The savings rate has been negative in eight of the last nine months, indicating consumers are dipping into savings to maintain spending. Consumers spent $42 billion more than they earned last year, the biggest dip in savings since record-keeping began in 1929.

Savings Rate at Lowest Level Since 1933

To finance the increased spending, Americans dipped further into their savings, pushing the savings rate for all of 2005 into negative territory at minus 0.5 percent. That was the lowest annual savings rate since a decline of 1.5 percent in 1933, a year in which the country was struggling to cope with the Great Depression.


Personal Savings Rate
Apr -0.2
May 0.0
Jun -0.6
Jul -1.4
Aug -3.4
Sep -0.5
Oct -0.1 (revised)
Nov -0.2 (revised)
Dec -0.7 (preliminary)

Caveat Emptor!
Grim

I came across this piece on Ben’s blog this morning. I’m positing it here because I feel it is rather significant. If you’ve studied any economics you know the theory behind a perfectly competitive markets. If you don’t, the model theorizes a type of market where no producer or consumer can influence prices directly. The model has five requirements for this to be possible:

1) Atomicity - A large number of buyers and sellers
2) Homogeneity - Good and services are perfect subsititutes
3) Perfect and complete information - All firms and consumers know the prices set
4) Equal access - All fims have access to information, technologies, resources
5) Free entry - Any firm may enter the market

The real estate market most certainly achieves the first requirement of atomicity. The second requirement is arguable in either direction, but does involve quite a bit of subjective taste. The third and fourth requirements, however, are very important in the real estate industry.

Why?

Because as long as the real estate industry controls the information and do not share it, there exists an information asymmetry in the market that gives a significant advantage to the real estate industry. This asymmetry allows those insiders to manipulate the market. Why? Because the industry has a vested interest in the market.

So why am I bringing this up today? Because of this.

Home sales on a slide across the county

Over the past several years, the News-Press has obtained sales and median price data for the South Coast from the Santa Barbara Association of Realtors. The group recently told the News-Press that it now refuses to make this data available to the newsroom. Other associations of Realtors across the county willingly continue to share sales and price information with the paper.

Is this the beginning of a disconcerting trend to hide data and statistics from the public? If so, the Realtors would be able to spin the market any way they wish. It would only be through anecdotal stories and stale data that we would be able to know the market direction.

Hopefully, intelligent readers will realize that hiding this data from the public only further damages public trust for Realtors and the real estate industry. God knows that the Realtors were not shy with their information in a rapidly appreciating market. So why change now? Well, because the market is falling apart, and it is in their best interest to do everything they can to hide it.

Caveat Emptor!
Grim

A simple idea becomes huge Highlands task

It started as a relatively simple premise. The state’s Highlands Act was designed to save green spaces, protect North Jersey’s water supply and natural habitats, and stop construction crews from developing the remaining forests and fields of Northwest Jersey.

Now comes the hard part: turning the concept into rules and regulations.

There are many skeptics. They believe the state is moving too quickly on an enormous project that will have long-term consequences. They are concerned about a potential loss of property values and a loss of home rule to a Highlands bureaucracy.

“They are stealing our property values to redirect development. That is criminal,” said Hunterdon County farmer Hank Klumpp.

“I don’t understand to this day how this is going to be administered,” said Montville Township Committeeman Art Daughtry. “There is no money in the bank for this. How are they going to compensate landowners? This is going to end up in the courts for a long time.”

Getting away with murder

Kill someone in Essex County and chances are you’ll get away with it.

At least that was the outcome in 637 murders over a recent six- year period in the state’s deadliest county, a Star-Ledger analysis has found.

From 1998 through 2003, fewer than half the murders in Essex County resulted in a conviction. And even when killers were convicted, only one in four received the legislatively mandated 30-year minimum, largely due to plea bargains, the analysis found.

In Montclair, size matters … to the planning board

They’re going after the post- and-beam version of super-size fries.

Mammoth residences going up in Montclair have planners reaching for the antacids and looking to rein in the size of what are often called McMansions, a case in point being the 10 large-scale houses going up at the site of the old Marlboro Inn.

But what Mellon hears, Christina Mayer sees — up close. “They’re huge,” said Mayer, who lives across the street. “It’s overwhelming, and I even live in a big house.”

Just as mega-size residences are taking shape, though, Montclair’s planners — like those elsewhere in New Jersey — are rolling out new land-use rules to throw at least some additional hurdles in the way of developers.

34-home proposal derided

A housing development plan that some residents fear will impinge on a historic village in the township is smaller than originally proposed, but still controversial.

The 34 homes now proposed for 2-acre lots is five fewer than a plan discussed earlier in the month by a lawyer for the developer. Robertson Douglas originally had sought to put 43 homes on the property.

Guilty plea: I sent women into slavery at Hudson clubs

A woman from Texas admitted, in court Friday, that she helped smuggle young women and girls from Honduras into this country, then forced them to work as prostitutes and dancers in bars in Union City and Guttenberg.

“Did you know what you were doing was wrong?” Assistant U.S. Attorney Deborah Gannett asked Friday.

Isuala-Meza paused, then said, “Well, at the end, yes, I realized that.”

Trump sues, claiming he’s undervalued

Donald Trump has filed a multibillion-dollar lawsuit against the author and publisher of “TrumpNation: The Art of Being The Donald,” claiming the book knowingly understated the celebrity businessman’s wealth.

A lawyer for Trump filed a complaint in Superior Court in Camden on Monday accusing Timothy O’Brien, a New York Times business reporter, of damaging the real estate magnate’s reputation. Time Warner Book Group and Warner Books Inc., which published the 288-page book in October, are named as co-defendants.

The lawsuit takes issue with O’Brien’s use of three unnamed sources who said Trump “was not remotely close to being a billionaire,” and put his net worth between $150 million and $250 million. Trump’s suit suggests his fortune is closer to $2.7 billion.

Rich man, poor man: Report shows gap growing in NJ

The income gap between New Jersey’s richest and poorest residents widened dramatically over the last two decades, according to a report that also shows the top 5 percent in the Garden State had the greatest percentage increase in income nationwide.

It states that average income of the wealthiest 5 percent of New Jersey residents skyrocketed 132 percent from 1980-82, when it was $115,939, to 2001-03, when it was $268,889.

For the top 20 percent of New Jersey residents, average income rose nearly 79 percent, from $85,802 in 1980-82 to $153,362 in 2000-03. In contrast, average income for the lowest 20 percent rose just 25 percent over that span, from $16,397 to $20,391; for the middle 20 percent, average income rose 42 percent, from $42,145 to $59,929.



New Jersey is among the top 10 states in the disparity between lowest- and highest-income groups.

New Jersey ranks No. 9 nationally in the size on the income gap separating the top and bottom 20 percent of residents.

In 1980-82, New Jersey’s top 20 percent made 5.4 times more, on average, than the bottom 20 percent. By 2000-03, that ratio had jumped to 7.5.

Income Gap in New York Is Called Nation’s Highest

New York continues to have the highest income disparity between rich and poor of any state, according to a new study by two national economic policy groups.

The average income of the richest fifth of New York State families is 8.1 times the average income of the poorest fifth, according to the study, which drew from census data compiled by the Economic Policy Institute and the Center on Budget and Policy Priorities, two liberal research groups based in Washington.



New Jersey was ninth in income disparity, with a difference of 7.5 times, and Connecticut was 23rd, with a gap of 6.9 times.

The average income of families in the top 20 percent in New York State was $130,431, compared with $16,076 for the bottom fifth, according to data in the report.

Added to that, an increase in investment income helped the rich get richer, the study said.

The Economic Policy Institute (epi.org/epinet.org) is currently not responsive. I’ll post a link to the full report as soon as I can access the site.

Caveat Emptor,
Grim

Open Discussion for this weekend.

Observations about your local areas, comments on news stories or the New Jersey housing bubble, Open House reports, etc. If you have any questions you wanted to ask earlier in the week but never posted them up, let’s have them.

In particular, I’d like to put out a request for comments on the Hoboken and Jersey City markets. There have been many stories/rumors about certain message boards that cover that area. Lets have the dirt, inquiring minds want to know.

Have a nice weekend everyone!

Caveat Emptor!
Grim

Ameriquest Agrees to $325M Settlement

The investigation found that salespeople at Ameriquest had concealed interest-rate and loan costs during the loan process, pressured appraisers to inflate the values of borrowers’ homes, and engaged in other high-pressure tactics to close deals, a statement from New York Attorney General Eliot Spitzer’s office said.

Appreciation stagnates in many markets

What is real estate worth in a market with a glut of homes for sale, and where re-listings with price reductions are becoming routine? That’s the question facing buyers from Southern California to Arizona, to Florida and north to New England, all of which are experiencing declines in appreciation rates and sagging sales.

The answer often comes from someone they may not see, much less know by name: The appraiser hired by the lender.

For sellers, appraisers’ opinions of property value in softening markets can be pails of ice water: Sorry, but your house is worth $100,000 less today than it was last summer or spring.

Prospect of housing downturn casts pall over US economy

Mr Morris says a “bubble zone” has been created where house prices are overvalued by 35-40 per cent, equivalent to $6,000bn. Although this bubble could take time to deflate, Mr Morris warns that “the consequences of a punctured housing bubble could be traumatic”. Even a soft landing of zero house price growth, he says, will dry up the mortgage equity withdrawal that has fuelled consumer purchasing. Consumer spending makes up two-thirds of the US economy.

“There are already signs of softening in the new homes market in the US if you look at prices and the number of sales. That is going to hit discretionary spending,” says David Bowers, chief global investment strategist at Merrill Lynch.

US home building tumbles in December

Housing starts have fallen in two of the past three months. In December, starts plummeted throughout most of the United States. A 21.7 percent drop in the West marked the biggest percentage decline for that region since February 1999, when starts dropped 24.7 percent.
Total single-family starts dropped 12.3 percent in December while groundbreaking on multifamily units jumped 10.2 percent.

Permits for future groundbreaking, an indicator of builder confidence, fell 4.4 percent in December.

U.S. Economy: Home Resales Fall to Lowest Since March 2004

Sales of previously owned U.S. homes fell more than forecast last month to the lowest level since March 2004, evidence of the end of a five-year housing boom that will slow the economy.

Vegas Condos Go Cold

Now that several high rollers in the Las Vegas condo-hotel game, with properties linked to the likes of Michael Jordan and Ivana Trump, are either folding or selling their holdings, a growing number of players are losing their taste for big bets on high-rise residential real estate development.

Home investors, flippers may fade away

“The stats that we’ve all seen show anywhere from 15 to 25 percent of all home purchases right now are from investors and second homeowners,” said Robert Foregger, chief strategy officer at EverBank in Stowe, Vermont.

“If you revert to the mean, you could have somewhere between maybe 10 and 20 percent of the market that could really just dry up,” he said. “If it does, it has the potential to put more downward pressure on prices.”

Home prices get even more overvalued

The level of over-valuation matters in three ways, according to Ingo Wenzer, president of Local Market Monitor. The higher it is, the greater the risk of it correcting; the greater the correction can be; and the longer it will take to return to present-day prices after they fall.

“Once markets are overpriced by 40 percent or so, the risk is pretty high and the adjustment can take five to 10 years,” said Winzer.

Home sales continue to cool

Industry insiders blame the shift in the local market in part on the flight of speculators and investors, estimated to have been as much as one-third of real estate players in recent years.

The lack of action has caused some small-time investors who bought homes during the last six to 18 months hoping for a quick profit to suddenly look for an exit that just isn’t there at price they expect.

Single-family house prices fell nearly 12 percent in December

The median home price for a single-family house in San Luis Obispo County fell nearly 12 percent in December, or more than $70,000, but local real estate professionals warn that it is too early to determine if the market is headed downward.

The $534,930 median home price — the statistical point where half of the homes sell for more and half for less — declined 11.6 percent from the November price of about $605,160, according to the California Association of Realtors.

McCains having trouble selling mansion

Sen. John McCain, R-Ariz., tests the declining real estate market as he tries to sell his recently price-reduced $3.75 million Phoenix mansion.

The 11,000 square foot estate, with its nine bedrooms and eight bathrooms — and eight surveillance cameras — has been on the market for three months.

Only six prospective buyers have checked it out, the Arizona Republic says. That led to a half-million-dollar price cut.

State’s Housing Starts Fall for First Time in 10 Years

New home construction in California fell last year for the first time in 10 years and could drop more sharply this year, according to a report released Thursday that provided the latest sign of a cooling real estate boom

ECONOMISTS SEE HOUSING BUBBLE DEFLATING

It’s not the end of the world — just the first signs that the housing bubble is beginning to deflate.

That’s the verdict economists delivered yesterday on the data that show an unexpectedly steep slump in the sales of existing homes in December — despite a decline in mortgage lending rates that might have helped cushion such a decline.

Existing-Home Sales Slide

In a report yesterday, Goldman Sachs Group Inc. said the December figures suggest that “housing market conditions are deteriorating rapidly.”

The $7,000 drop in median home price from October to December, Goldman Sachs said, is the largest two-month drop in prices in years and must be taken seriously as a “potential sign of a sharper-than-expected weakening in the U.S. housing market.”

Centex says demand slowing

There’s no question demand is slowing in certain markets, such as Phoenix and Washington, D.C., executives said. Cancellations ticked up 175 basis points to 27.2% in the fiscal third quarter ended Dec. 31.

Unraveling the Pyramid

This issue is systemic industry-wide, as the entire process from the regulators to the lenders to the third party interactions of the loan officers and the Realtors/builders is broken. It certainly will take a collaborative effort from the entire industry to unravel the pyramid of bad practices that have occurred over the past ten years.

Smart Investing Amidst Real Estate Mania

The angry readers should draw insight from something Warren Buffett said: “For some reason, people take their cues from price action rather than from values. What doesn’t work is when you start doing things that you don’t understand or because they worked last week for someone else.”

Personally, I would say, “The dumbest reason to buy anything is because the price is going up.” Yet that’s what people do when they invest. They generally don’t buy high-priced things when they shop.

We all know a real estate crash is coming. The problem is we don’t know when.

Realtors’ Lereah: Housing To Make ‘Soft Landing’

And Lereah declared that the market adjustment was in fact expected, “with a soft landing in sight for the housing sector.” The normalization should give investors and industry players hope, one presumes, as he added that, “The level of home sales activity is now at a sustainable level, and is likely to pick up a bit in the months ahead.”

Caveat Emptor,
Grim

From Reuters:

Dec new home sales climb; record sales in 2005

Sales of new U.S. homes expectedly rose 2.9 percent in December as mortgage rates dipped, but home prices fell for a third month and the number of houses on the market hit a record, according to a government report on Friday.



Wall Street economists had expected sales to slow slightly in December to a 1.225 million unit pace.

While sales rose in December, the inventory and price data suggested some cooling in the housing market.

The number of new homes on the market at the end of December climbed 2.4 percent to 516,000, marking a new high. At the current sales pace, that represented 4.9 months’ supply.

—–

Here is a link to the dataset (warning, it’s in Excel format):

New Residential Sales December 2005

Sales in the Northeast dropped a staggering 23.3% in December. However realize these numbers are subject to large revisions as well as subject to high levels of error.

Median Home prices have been falling rather dramatically, in fact, the December 2005 Median Home Price of $221,800 is below the December 2004 price of $229,600.

U.S. Median Sales Price
Dec ‘04 $229,600
Aug $240,100
Sep $240,400
Oct $237,500
Nov $226,800
Dec $221,800

U.S. Average Sales Price
Dec ‘04 $284,300
Aug $295,000
Sep $299,600
Oct $291,400
Nov $286,000
Dec $272,900

Caveat Emptor!
Grim

New Jersey voters fell hook, line, and sinker for Corzine’s promises of lower property taxes.

Are more taxes in N.J.’s future?

Budget fixes: spending cuts, tax increases

Corzine urged to hike taxes

Aides to Governor Corzine are recommending a range of new taxes on clothing, cable television and Internet purchases as well as possible layoffs to help plug a $6 billion hole in the state budget.

The advisers, in a six-page draft report, are also suggesting a higher gas tax, a slice of 401(k) earnings for state coffers and a temporary tax surcharge to raise money immediately. They say they want an end to “illogical loopholes” in the income tax code.

“The fiscal health of the state of New Jersey has plunged perilously close to ruin,” the draft says. “In two short decades, under both Democratic and Republican administrations, the state has gone from a financial powerhouse to a financial basket case.”

Corzine has said the state budget will fall about $6 billion short of its anticipated $28 billion spending needs. Moreover, the Transportation Trust Fund, which finances multimillion-dollar highway projects, and the state workers’ pension fund are heading toward insolvency. The state has racked up nearly $30 billion in debt and has another $30 billion in liabilities, the aides concluded.

The document makes no specific proposals for dealing with spiraling property taxes throughout the state, but it does assert that the plan could lay the groundwork for comprehensive and long-lasting property tax reform. Failure to enact fundamental changes would lead to “grave consequences, including … skyrocketing property taxes,” it warns.

Corzine had campaigned on a platform of property tax reform. Although he refused to make a “no new taxes” pledge, he often said he had no intention of raising taxes.

The draft report Thursday led critics to compare him with former Gov. Jim Florio, whom voters punished in the early 1990s for declaring a new tax on toilet paper and other staples, plus raising the sales tax rate 1 percent.

“Corzine has broken Jim Florio’s record,” Wilson said. “In just eight days after taking office he’s announced perhaps the most significant tax increases in a long time.”

Caveat Emptor!
Grim

Poll: Housing costs are major burden for Long Islanders

A majority of Long Island residents say they have trouble making monthly rent or mortgage payments and may move to an area with lower housing costs and property taxes, according to a new poll.

The Rauch Foundation poll said 56 percent of those surveyed said they were likely to move in the next five years in 2005, up from 45 percent in 2004. Fifty-four percent of Long Islanders reported difficulty making monthly rent or mortgage payments in 2005, up from 47 percent in 2004, the poll found.

Some 1,215 Long Island residents were interviewed by telephone between June 7 and August 1 for the poll, part of the foundation’s Long Island Index reports on public policy issues. The survey, released Thursday, had a margin of error of plus or minus 2.8 percentage points.

The full text of the Long Island Index report can be found here:

Long Island Index 2005 - PDF

Caveat Emptor!
Grim

From the NY Times Walk-thru blog:

How Good are the Realtors’ Predictions?

Hats off to writer Damon Darlin for taking the time to compile the NAR estimates released over the past few years. Here is some of the article:

What actually happened in 2002: There were a total of 5.6 million existing-home sales in 2002, up 5 percent from the previous record of 5.3 million in 2001.

NAR was off by 6.4 percent.

What actually happened in 2003: There were a total of 6.1 million existing-home sales in 2003, up 9.6 percent from the previous record of 5.6 million in 2002.

NAR was off by 14.2 percent.

What actually happened in 2004: Existing single-family home sales surged in 2004, well above the previous record set in 2003, according to the National Association of Realtors. There were a total of 6.7 million existing-home sales in 2004, up 9.4 percent from 2003. This is the fourth consecutive annual record.

NAR was off by 14 percent.

What actually happened in 2005: There were 7.1 million existing-home sales in all of 2005, up 4.2 percent from 2004.

NAR was off by 9.6 percent, and guessed the direction wrong.

So what have we learned?

Caveat Emptor!
Grim

Northern New Jersey Residential Inventory (SFH, Condo, Coop)

GSMLS
Bergen, Essex, Hudson, Morris, Passaic, Somerset, Sussex, Union, and Warren Counties
1/18 - 11696
1/25 - 11931 (2% Increase, 8.3% since January 1st)

NJMLS
Bergen, Essex, Hudson, and Passaic Counties
1/18 - 5565
1/25 - 5691 (2.2% Increase)

MLSGuide
Hudson County
1/18 - 1782
1/25 - 1744 (2% Decrease)
(Hudson County listings increased on both GSMLS and NJMLS)

Caveat Emptor,
Grim

From Bloomberg:

U.S. December Existing Home Sales Fell 5.7% to 6.60 Mln Rate

Sales of previously owned homes fell in December for a third straight month, evidence that housing demand was starting to falter at the end of a record year.

Home sales fell 5.7 percent to a 6.60 million annual rate, the National Association of Realtors said today in Washington. Sales, which have been slowing from a record monthly pace reached in June, still finished 2005 at an all-time high of 7.072 million.

Sales were expected to fall to a 6.87 million annual rate from 6.97 million in November, according to the median of 59 estimates in a Bloomberg News survey of economists. Forecasts ranged from 6.75 million to 7 million.

The supply of homes for sale, another measure of housing demand, fell to 2.796 million in December from 2.924 million the month before. That represents 5.1 months’ worth at the current sales pace, up from 5 months’ worth in November.

The NAR December EHS data can be found here:

NAR December 05 EHS

In the Northeast sales were flat in December, however, compared with last year sales were down -3.5%, the second highest behind the West that came in at a -11.4%.

Median Home Price has fell again in the Northeast to $245,000 in December from a high of $254,000 set in August. This represents a decline of approximately 3.5%.

Caveat Emptor!
Grim

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