Worst Market In 10 Years?

It’s been a while since we heard anything real-estate related from friend-of-the-blog, Warren Boroson. So this piece, from the Morris County Daily Record, was a bit of a surprise to me.

From the Daily Record:

Sales of homes slow in Morris
By Warren Boroson

May and June are traditionally the best months for real-estate sales, but this May and June have been “very, very slow,” says Dan Scher of Ledgewood, who has been selling real estate for 25 years.

It’s the worst market he has seen in 10 years, for himself and other agents.

The root of the problem, in his view, is that sellers are stuck in a time warp and refuse to budge from their lofty asking prices.

Times have changed, but many sellers have not.

What has jinxed the market?

Scher says, “The inventory of houses for sale has risen dramatically, interest rates have climbed, gas prices are outrageous and we have a terrible war in the Mideast. The country is in the doldrums.”

Then there’s the obvious reason: House prices have climbed too high.

Jeffrey G. Otteau, president of the Otteau Appraisal Group, says he has no hard evidence that house prices in New Jersey have declined — but the latest data aren’t in.

His most recent data are for the first quarter of this year, and the next will be for the second quarter — available at the beginning of July.

But, worrisomely, he points out that the market began slowing in April, at the start of the second quarter. That’s when “the bottom fell out of the market.” The number of potential buyers declined sharply.

Otteau’s latest report, which notes a statewide decline in sales in April, concludes that this is “solid confirmation that the transition to a buyer-controlled market is now complete.”

No, the worst won’t happen. Frustrated homeowners will NOT be forced to leave their unwanted domiciles to their children because they cannot find buyers. Real-estate agents won’t be applying for jobs as greeters at Wal-Mart, competing for positions with journalists who used to write about real-estate activity.

What will happen is: lots more negotiation. That’s what is recommended by Keith Gumbinger, vice president of HSH, the mortgage-reporting agency in Pequannock.

I asked him: Why are there some weird people out there gloating over a slowdown? Is it because they are not homeowners and have been choking with envy in recent years at the fortunes that we homeowners have made? (I tell people: “I bought my house for $1.75 and sold it for $4.5 million. Or something like that.” Actually, I cleared a mere $500,000.)

Gumbinger acknowledges that it’s a different market. “We’ve passed the peak, we’ve topped out. There’s more room for negotiation now.

“Sellers know that buyers are not lined up 10 deep. And buyers know that while there were once three acceptable houses and 22 bidders, there are now 30 acceptable houses and very few bidders. Instead of asking for 10 percent off, they may ask for 20 percent off.

I thought this was quite fair and balanced, considering the source. However, I do have an issue with the stab, directed at this blog, in this piece. Why Warren? Why lower yourself to insult? Just who are these wierd people choking with envy? Oh, it’s us of course! Why don’t we just agree to disagree, and stop with the insult and derision?

Even though we’ve had quite a colorful relationship, Warren, I’m not going retaliate with a volley of insults. Instead, I’m going to thank you. I would like to thank you, publically, for trying to seek more balance in your reporting of real estate.

Caveat Emptor!
Grim

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54 Responses to Worst Market In 10 Years?

  1. Is reporting a slowdown and gloating over a slow down the same thing? I don’t think so.

    KL

  2. Anonymous says:

    “I asked him: Why are there some weird people out there gloating over a slowdown? Is it because they are not homeowners and have been choking with envy in recent years at the fortunes that we homeowners have made? (I tell people: “I bought my house for $1.75 and sold it for $4.5 million. Or something like that.” Actually, I cleared a mere $500,000.)

    Weird people? I don’t think so and I am not gloating. I have been reading this blog since October. In Decemeber I decided to sell. I closed in May. I got out right at peak and got the highest price ever for my model of condo in its resepective development.

    I actually feel bad, I even felt bad about the person who bought my place. He(single guy) paid $400,000 for my condo and I estimate his monthly non-descretionary spending to be near $3,000 a month. Mind you, in a fair market this condo should not be fetching more than $300,000.

    The crime is the media(real estate writers) and politicians who allowed all these aggressive loans to go unchecked. Their Ad dollars are derived substantially from real estate firms, hence the whole section of their newspaper. They write their articles calling $600,000 800 sqr ft. condos in Jersey City being “bargains”, “cheaper than NY”.

    When I purchased this condo, I had to have great credit and mandatory 20% down. My lender made sure I was able to afford my place and I didnt seek anything extravagent in terms of my condo. It was the right size for me. That’s not the terms my prospective buyers were getting, there was even a couple with a no-money down loan. I rent now.

    We are headed for a massive slowdown and the media will point their finger elsewhere, wherever it will benefit them on a political basis except where it belongs, to their advertisers who they write fluff pieces for.

    I would even venture a guess that all these aggressive loans were issued on purpose with the blassing of politicians. Bush gloats over “highest minority home ownership”(I am a minority) ever. He has had a great recovery in terms of the economy because the entire economy is running on cash out refis and debt. All this spending gave us an artificial bullish economy based on inflated home values, not increases in wages.

    I shorted the stock market in March because I know that Wall Street is a few quarters behind in terms of factoring in all the decrease in spending began this year. I think it has more to go in terms of a dropoff.

    No one is gloating except that idiotic, “BOOOYAA” guy who spams the message board here. I feel sorry for people and currently one of my friends wants to buy a $500,000 home and I am doing what I can to prevent him from doing that.

    Don’t buy anything right now, keep your cash. There will be bargains to be found by the end of the year and next year. And I am not only talking about Homes.

  3. Anonymous says:

    End of the day, its our own butts we care about. Nobody feels sorry for anybody. Lets face it.

  4. Metroplexual says:

    As I have said before, there is very little schadenfreude here (except Bob). As a matter of fact I am not envious at all. Who would be envious of someone who is a debt slave.

    As the previous anon 08:51:19 said, I feel sorry for many of these people who “bought in” to the idea that you have to stretch the limits to get into a house. I also agree that with the BK laws you will see alot of people selling anything and everything they own to make payments at bargain prices.

    It is just the facts, as Joe Friday used to say. I am surprised that Boroson has turned around so much. Two years ago he flatly stated there was no bubble, and that fundamentals were good. Granted we have seen a runup since then, but 2 years ago I could see it was out of whack, and I am no economist.

    BTW, as the now deceased comic / philosopher Rodney Dangerfield said “Everyone is normal until you get to know them”. Which implies that we are all wierd, so fellow wierdos you are in good company.

  5. Anonymous says:

    “Sellers know that buyers are not lined up 10 deep. And buyers know that while there were once three acceptable houses and 22 bidders, there are now 30 acceptable houses and very few bidders. Instead of asking for 10 percent off, they may ask for 20 percent off.”

    Don’t waste your time until you get at least 30% off of 2005 peak prices. Don’t be fooled by the markups then reductions. The reductions are a fantasy. Do your homework and do not be a bagholding underwater fool.

    Bababababababa

    BOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOYcott

    Bob

  6. Anonymous says:

    Starter houses at 1/2 a million !

    NOT!

    Tell’em to shove it.

    How many 1st time buyers can afford this?
    Yeah with a stupid creative loan maybe. But what happens in 2 3 years when loan adjusts.

    BANKRUPTCY!
    You sign up and buy with one of these loans you deserve the consequences.

    Babababababa

    BOOOOOOOOOOOOYcott

    Bob

  7. RentinginNJ says:

    Why are there some weird people out there gloating over a slowdown? Is it because they are not homeowners and have been choking with envy in recent years at the fortunes that we homeowners have made?

    Mr. Boronson,

    Weird? Is it really that “weird” to hope that you can find decent affordable housing for your family? Is it really any more “weird” than gloating about your “savvy” investment when prices take off for the moon? What do you think the flipside of “fortunes that we homeowners have made” is? I will tell you. It’s some young couple who didn’t know any better that was talked into buying an overpriced house they couldn’t really afford using a suicide mortgage and now faces a lifetime of slavery to suffocating debt. But don’t worry, prices only go up, right?

  8. Anonymous says:

    “…at the fortunes that we homeowners have made?”

    What fortunes? If fortunes have been made in this country by a class of people as numerous as “homeowners”, please explain why personal debt continues to skyrocket. Please explain why a country full of people making fortunes has a negative savings rate. There were some people buying and selling that did well as long as they dumped everything last year, but that’s a fairly small number.

    People still living in homes that have had abnormal appreciation should keep one thing in mind: easy come, easy go.

  9. Anonymous says:

    This guy doesn’t realize that there are no free lunches.

    Not even for somebody who pulled in $500K on a home sale. There’s a bagholder there, maybe somebody with a couple of little kids.

    Wealth only shifts in the current economy. It’s just a matter of whose kids are going to suffer.

    Life is indeed like the “Hokey Pokey.” That’s what it’s all about. It’s an us-against-them attitude, and it sucks.

  10. Anonymous says:

    This guy doesn’t realize that there are no free lunches.

    Not even for somebody who pulled in $500K on a home sale. There’s a bagholder there, maybe somebody with a couple of little kids.

    Wealth only shifts in the current economy. It’s just a matter of whose kids are going to suffer.

    Life is indeed like the “Hokey Pokey.” That’s what it’s all about. It’s an us-against-them attitude, and it sucks.

  11. Anonymous says:

    I am happy the market will be more favorable to buyers, but not gloating. Property taxes have been increased because of these inflated home prices. Will they adjust to reflect the lower home value? I doubt it. I think families earning @ $60k-70k a year should be able to buy a home without paying 10x their income.
    The NAR is a joke – begging for interest rates to pause. Please…they have bled the country long enough – their greed is just sickening. If the gov’t cares more about the NAR than our dollar we are all doomed.

  12. Anonymous says:

    Remember…Unitl you sell your house and have cold hard cash in your hands, you haven’t made a damn thing. People can ask for whatever price they want, market may say your house is worth x price, market may correct by y%.

    Either way, how many people really made money in this bubble? I know there are alot of people who have, but I think most have not made anything. They think they made money. But where is the cash?

    Cash is king baby. RE is a joke.

    Smart money knew this along time ago. Smart money never bought into the RE game, now when prices fall to 50cents on the dollar, smart money will clean house.

    Remember during the depression, there was a small few whom became millionaries during that time, by doing just this.

    Consider the early 2000-2005 as the roaring 20’s. Consider next few years stagflation, damn near depression for next 5-6 years (minimun, hoping China slows and Iran contained).

    History repeats itself again and again….

  13. Anonymous says:

    Where is Boroson warning first time buyers about the great risks in using these creative ponzi mtg loans?
    The guy is washed up.

  14. UnRealtor says:

    Who are the “weird” ones — the people who are leveraged to their eyeballs to become debt serfs to a $700-800K mortgage, or the people who sit on the sidelines and watch in disbelief?

  15. Anonymous says:

    We moved to NNJ in July 2004 from rural Indiana; gave up a farmhouse and jobs at a rural liberal arts college for a JC apartment and jobs at universities in the City. Despite the good jobs on this side of the move/life change, we can’t afford to buy anything worth living in, so we rent–husband, wife, two little girls, dog. It’s fine.

    But here is the thing: even though renting is working well and JC is fine too, I do gloat and feel righteous about gloating over a slowdown. I have no guilt or regret about gloating, and my sentiments are far from weird, cruel, or perverse.

    When we left the East Coast for Indiana in 1998 we could have afforded to buy a house in a decent town in NNJ to raise a family in, had we had then the kind of jobs and relative security we have now. Things really didn’t appreciate much in Indiana during our six years there, however, and, despite living according to sound and conservative financial principles, we are priced out of everything that isn’t in the slums in NNJ. So, I gloat about the slowdown and I hope for 40 percent depreciations. That would make it possible for the decent middle class arriving after the boom to settle into NNJ.

    I side with Bob! Let the sellers and the realtor trash suffer the consequences of their excesses. Yes, it’s too bad for the folks that got into this assinine market late; yes, it’s worse if they have kids and massive debt. Who wouldn’t feel bad for them? But there is this other whole population of speculators, wealthy entitlement idiots (whether in their 20s, 30s, 40s, or 50s), long-time home owners who have seen huge appreciation (even if they chose to cash it all out and now will eat dirt), and the whole real estate-mortgage-media industry that profitted obscenely from this bubble. To them, including Boronson, I simply say–kiss off! Call me weird, but I have much worse for you and your kind. Enjoy your just rewards from this crash (if it indeed turns into one)!

    WM

  16. Anonymous says:

    Hang in there. The greedy money grubbing sellers and starving realtors will be BEGGING BIDS in about 1 year. And you are going to give’em a bid at 30% + off peak summer 2005 prices. The arrogance will be wiped off their faces soon. Then back to some sanity.

    Qualified buyers (people who have a REAL down payment) will be in HUGE demand.

    Be a pro be polite BUT BLEED’EM DRY!

    Just Say NO MAAS to monthly slave payments. You just want to be treated fairly like the people who bought a house 10-20-30 years ago while not signing up for monthly slavery.Why should you have to pay 40-50-60 % of your income to buy a INSANEly priced house?

    BOOOOOOOOOOOOOYcott HOUSES!

    Bob

  17. Anonymous says:

    BOOOOOOOOOOOYaaaaaaaahhhhhhhh!

    Bob

  18. Richie says:

    The greatest thing about this is that we’re at the “PEAK” selling season.

    We have not hit bottom yet. There’s a brand new house (~4600 sq.ft) that just went on the market in my town for $1.25million. I laughed. There’s one much nicer that went on the market over a year ago for the same price. It’s been on the market 385 days, the price has dropped to $985k and hasn’t budged.

    People are still in denial.

    -Richie

  19. Anonymous says:

    Gloat if you will, but how dare you feel righteous. You’re the one who left for Indiana. I don’t feel its right that you should come back and take two good jobs that could have gone to people that were already here and would have liked those jobs so that they could afford a house. Many people can’t find one good job per household. You folks took two. That’s not right. Now you want a house. What do want? Everything?

  20. I was trying to think of a witty or insightful adjective to describe Boroson, but the only thing that resonates is the visceral – what a prick!

  21. Anonymous says:

    “Gloat if you will, but how dare you feel righteous.”

    Hard not to feel righteous, after watching all the flippers flip hovels the past two years, and after reading Boronson’s righteous drivel.

    Those $ 300,000-500,000, 800 sq. ft. condos going in on the garbage-strewn streets of seedy neighborhoods around NNJ, with bars open ’til 3am, hoods prowling the night, were and still are obscene, and up until about a year ago, a lot of the people selling them, flipping them, hand-over-fist were making blasphemous profits, amass speculative wealth far beyond what anyone could take in who makes mere an ordinary, non-Wall St., non-speculative salary–thus, the age of the ARM kicks into full swing. And who does the ARM serve? The speculators, not the humble, ordinary homebuyers.

    Who gloated then? Was anything righteous at all about that kind of moment or scene, regardless of who worked hard to land a decent job, someone from Indiana or someone from Red Bank?

    Forgive my momentary loss of humility and level-headedness–some situations, compounded by the attitudes of people like Boronson, can do that to folks.

    WM

  22. Anonymous says:

    Who cares if someone one wants to see the market crash? Worry about your own tail. If some wants a crash, they can want it all they want. Vice versa, if someone wants more bubble, they can wish for that too.

    My take, this housing market is going down. I want to see it happen so people from Indiana can move here and take jobs. Why not?

    Housing comes more affordable then, people move in, so do more jobs, and the cycle starts over again.

    Please, oh please let there be a real estate crash…..

  23. Anonymous says:

    BOOOOOOOOOYCOTT HOUSES!

    NO MAAS TO RIPOFF HOME PRICES!

    NO BUYERS =NO SALES = FEUDING REALTORS & SELLERS

    Hehehe
    Bleed’em dry!
    BOOOOOOOOOOOYAAAAAAAAAAAAAAA!

    Bob

  24. Anonymous says:

    YEAH!

    GREEDY MONEY GRUBBING SELLERS THINK THEY ARE ENTITLED TO 40-50% OF YOUR MONTHLY INCOME.

    TELL’EM TO SHOVE IT!

    GET ANOTHER JOB AND DELAY YOUR RETIREMENT!

    DON’T LET’EM STICK YOU WITH A MONTHLY SLAVE PAYMENT!

    BOOOOOOOOOOOOOOYcott Houses!

    Bob

  25. Anonymous says:

    bababababababbababa

    BOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOYcott HOUSES!

    Bob

  26. Chicagofinance said: “I was trying to think of a witty or insightful adjective to describe Boroson, but the only thing that resonates is the visceral – what a prick!”

    That’s actually very insightful. I wish Grim would ignore Boroson, because the attention he gets from time to time on this blog is far more than he is worth.

  27. Why are there some weird people out there gloating over a slowdown? Is it because they are not homeowners and have been choking with envy in recent years at the fortunes that we homeowners have made?

    I think Boronson lurks on this this board quite a bit. Now, I wouldn’t characterize anyone posting here as weird, but as I’ve stated many times there’s a lot of resentment indicative of a class war being played out on boards like this one. Homeowners, investor and realtors are not liked and people are giddy at the prospect of their financial downfall. It’s not gonna happen.

    I agree with him that there’ll just be more negotiation rather than a wholesale rout as far declining home prices. There’s too much pent up demand in NNJ for these houses to sit for too long. At some point, the buyers will give in and be out in full force.

  28. UnRealtor says:

    “There’s too much pent up demand in NNJ for these houses to sit for too long. At some point, the buyers will give in and be out in full force.”

    Keep dreaming…

    The concept of “pent up damand” is false, as the demand in recent years has been fueled by speculators/”investors” who are currently leaving the market (the smart ones already left), ann people buying second “investment” homes.

    Watch as the inventory climbs higher and higher, sellers and speculators are brought to tears, and the Anti-Fools sit by and enjoy our summer, unrushed, gathering yet more cash:

    “Currently, there are 30,687 properties advertised for sale in NJ on our site. For Residential Properties that are Multiple Listed with Garden State, 99% are available to be searched on this site.”

    http://www.gsmls.com/

    The “spring market” was a bust, and there’s only four more weeks to register the kids for school, then we have the dead holiday season…

  29. Anonymous says:

    Reinvestor 101…that said. You should buy as many homes as you can, now, this weekend. ps: the “masses” have been and always will be stupid, and even they, this late in the bubble have woken up…but I’m wrong and your right, soooo go get those houses…don’t forget to get yourself some paint brushes and paint and keep that checkbook handy for the tax assesor who is in all likely hood collecting on 05′ artificial values.

  30. Anonymous says:

    PS: Last month I moved to south Florida, I’m renting, funny thing is prices are way out of wack here to and when I speak to people about it, they go on and on about how “special” it is,and won’t be hit with falling RE prices etc. I thought to myself, WOW another place that’s just like SUMMIT,NJ. Good golly miss molly!!!! Nope. rather pure folly and I love it!

  31. Anonymous says:

    Unrealtor said: “Watch as the inventory climbs higher and higher, sellers and speculators are brought to tears, and the Anti-Fools sit by and enjoy our summer, unrushed, gathering yet more cash”

    Aint it da truth :)

  32. Anonymous says:

    I am in the market to buy – but not while this out of wack over pricing is going on.

    I am sure that I will not “give in and be out in full force” as reinvestor suggests.

    I am in absolutely no rush to buy -I am actually waiting for houses to expire and then when I am ready I’ll go put offers in, without a realtor (no commission for you).
    So, don’t hold your breath – I have my money and you won’t see a dime of it :)

  33. Anonymous says:

    Now gary,

    Some homeowners don’t think they are genuises for buying a house 10-20-30 years ago when they were priced sanely.

    Bababababababba

    BOOOOOOOOOOOYcott!

    Bob

  34. Anonymous says:

    there’s only four more weeks to register the kids for school

    You can register your kids at any time.

  35. delford says:

    reinvewstor: Stop with the class war and resentment, and all that silliness.

    Prices went up because of cheap money and lax lending standards. It was driven to a frenzy by speculators and cluelees first time home buyers, using toxic financing,all along of course cheered on by the real estate establishment.

    There is certainly no class advantage to sitting in a 50 year old cape, with an under water mtg, and a 10k tax bill.

    The market will correct, just like it did in the early 90’s,only this time the correction will be more severe,as the excess this time a round was that much greater.

    No need to ponder, no need to employ philosophy. it is really that simple. The Spring market was a bust, and the inventory increases every day.

  36. UnRealtor says:

    “You can register your kids at any time.”

    Not if parents want their kids to start school in September with everyone else…

  37. Anonymous says:

    Delford,

    I agree.

    You said it well and concise!

    Andy

  38. Anonymous says:

    do you have to live in a certain area in order to register kids?

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