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Dow Jones Newswire: August Home Data Weak

Dow Jones Newswire: August Home Data Weak

Sales and home prices fell at a faster clip than expected and inventories climbed further in August as the housing market continued to deteriorate, according to a Banc of America Real Estate Agent survey.
…
The study, released Tuesday, shows consumer sentiment toward buying a home soured in August.

“Consumers are shifting from a mindset of waiting for a better price to one where they do not want to buy at this time, no matter what the price is,” the study said.
…

Mass. home sale data MAR-red

By Scott Van Voorhis
Boston Herald Business Reporter
Wednesday, August 30, 2006

A bad storm is brewing in the once high-flying real estate market, and the Boston area, with its million-dollar fixer-uppers, is right in the eye of it.
For many hapless home sellers, desperately scrambling to find living, breathing buyers, this tempest appeared to come on as quickly as a Gulf Coast hurricane.
Or did it?
The monthly home sales reports put out by the Massachusetts Association of Realtors for years have been the main indicator of the health of the Bay State’s real estate market.
And as recently as last fall, the trade group was crowing about near-record sales.
However, other data, collected by a respected local publisher and real estate data firm, paints a different picture.
A steady decline in home sales across the state began in the spring of 2005 and has been building steam ever since, data released by the Boston-based Warren Group shows. (A note of disclosure, I once worked as a reporter for Banker & Tradesman, a publication of the Warren Group.)
Year-over-year declines in home sales of roughly 10 percent or more began in April 2005 and continued steadily, hitting nearly 14 percent in October and nearly 27 percent in July.
Meanwhile, median home prices peaked at $364,000 as early as June 2005 and began dropping steadily after that.
By last summer, let alone last fall, anyone following the Warren Group data would have been well aware of the real estate storm clouds on the horizon.
Yet, except for a few experts and insiders, no one was.
The firm for decades has collected records of all sales transactions right from the courthouse, publishing a thick insert each week in its Banker & Tradesman. But it was not until earlier this year that the Warren Group began an alternative to the Massachusetts Association of Realtors’ monthly sales reports, offering up its version of the numbers to the local news media. As the real estate market began to turn sour last year, MAR, a group formed to promote the industry, was still the main source of statistics for most news outlets.
And the Realtors group saw more evidence for optimism than concern.
While MAR reported year-over-year declines in home sales in April, May and July, it reported increases and new home sales records and near-records in June, August and September.
No increase was too modest to celebrate.
A 0.5 percent increase in single-family home sales in September. Roll out the barrels.
“Sales of single-family homes remain strong last month, climbing to their second highest level on record for the month of September in state history,” the group touted in a section of its Web site called “talking points.”
That was a badly timed fit of happy talk.
Since October, the market’s downhill trajectory has been too steep for anyone to ignore, with prices, not just the number of sales, falling.
But there are no apologies from David Wluka, MAR’s president.
He points to differences in how the MAR and the Warren Group collect data, though that doesn’t appear to account for the markedly different results.
And Wluka further contends that MAR has always offered a sober appraisal of the market.
Not everyone is convinced of that, though, including Wellesley College’s Chip Case, one of the nation’s top experts on the residential real estate market.
“They (Realtors) have a stake in high (home sales) volume,” Case said. “They care if people are trading. They have a huge stake in optimism. When optimism goes away, people don’t spend money on big-ticket items.’

Pardon me if I HOPE that the BEAR… EATS them ALL ALIVE !

I could never sleep at night knowing my pillow was financed by my credit card……

To each his own though. If the guy is truly happy impressing strangers in his leased BMW, so be it. BTW, keep an eye for plenty of folks walking away from car leases soon….

http://tinyurl.com/e4so5

Why???? Because they are trapped. Why did they opt for this type of loan when long term fixed rates were at historic lows??? The only way they could afford to buy was with creative financing, teaser rates and IO. Of course they had to buy, even if they could not afford, because everybody else was,they heard how everbody else was getting paper rich with RE. Their family and friends told them if they don’t buy now they may never be able to afford. Well, now comes judgement day. They can’t refinance since they can’t afford to pay today’s rate. Also, many of them will find out that their property is now appraised at a lower rate then when they originally bought. They are now upside down. Just ask yourself, how do they get out of this mess??? Talk to their financial advisor???? This will send them them from the ditch to a crater.
Simple refinacing is not their answer.Their problems are much more complicated/serious than this.

BC Bob