GSMLS – http://www.gsmls.com
(Garden State Multiple Listing Service)
Single Family Homes, Condo, Coop
(Bergen, Essex, Hudson, Morris, Passaic, Somerset, Sussex, Union, Warren Counties)
9/13 – 18,886
9/27 – 19,108 (1.2% Increase)
NJMLS – http://www.njmls.com
(New Jersey Multiple Listing Service)
Single Family Homes, Condo, Coop
(Bergen, Essex, Hudson, Passaic Counties)
9/13 – 9,184
9/27 – 9,270 (0.9% Increase)
MLSGuide – http://www.mlsguide.com
Single Family Homes, Condo, Coop
(Hudson County)
9/13 – 2,705
9/27 – 2,774 (2.6% Increase)
(Please note that these are 2-week changes)
For the curious in Bergen County, here is the number of active residential SFH listings; this does NOT include Condos/Co-ops & Townhouses.
Date 2006 2005 2004
01/31 3,328 2,297 2,270
02/28 3,501 2,341 2,275
03/30 3,543 2,400 2,409
04/24 3,856 2,604 2,529
05/29 4,352 2,877 2,873
06/26 4,588 3,041 3,048
07/26 4,623 3,171 3,168
08/30 4,505 3,210 3,145
09/06 4,483 3,284 3,059
09/13 4,504 3,378 3,145
09/20 4,487 3,402 3,173
09/27 4,512 3,494 3,163
Historical Actives are not available prior to 1/1/2004
From Bloomberg:
Homebuilders Offer Garages, Sprinklers to Lure Buyers
Phyllis Whitaker needed more than a mortgage broker and an attorney to help buy a new house this year. She had to create a computer spreadsheet to sort through all the incentives that homebuilders offered before she agreed to purchase a three-bedroom Colonial in Novi, Michigan.
“It was hard to keep track of them all,” says Whitaker, 47, who will take possession when construction is completed in December. She got $5,000 off the $299,990 list price and $5,000 in extras such as air conditioning, outdoor sprinklers and sod.
U.S. homebuilders including Pulte Homes Inc., Lennar Corp. and D.R. Horton Inc. are cutting prices and throwing in a lot more than the kitchen sink to stem a record build-up of unsold houses — even as their profits and shares tumble. The annual median price of a new home this year may fall for the first time in 15 years as sales drop the most since 1990, says Doug Duncan, chief economist for the Mortgage Bankers Association.
Builders are paying closing costs and a year’s worth of monthly mortgage bills to lure buyers, says Joshua Cohen, an agent with Wilkerson Real Estate and Investments in Las Vegas. More builders, such as closely held Pageantry Communities Inc. in Las Vegas, are offering incentives including $10,000 that buyers can allot for price reductions, equipment upgrades, closing costs or mortgage payments, he says.
“We’ve seen a huge upswing in supply and a huge decrease in demand,” Cohen says. “The builders will do whatever it takes to move a property.”
When I drive through Englewood every day, it seems that practically the entire town is up for sale (at least in the expensive parts). Many of these home are enormous and located on large lots. At the best of times, these home would take for ever to sell but now, it seems I can see ivy growing on the “for sale” signs.
This one just closed — 35% off original asking price:
20 Great Hills Terrace, Short Hills
MLS 2269098
Apr 20, 2006 – $1,199,000
Jun 27, 2006 – $1,075,000
Jul 08, 2006 – $995,000
Jul 14, 2006 – $849,000
Aug 10, 2006 – Attorney Review
Aug 31, 2006 – Under Contract
Sep 25, 2006 – Closed @ $772,000
You know something, I would almost consider the $772k figure a “fair” price. I know I might be strung up as a heretic for saying it. More evidence of a cooling/declining market perhaps?
If you back out the 5% commission and the seller is left with approximately $733k.
It was purchased in 1998 for $595,000.
That gives you an approximate appreciation of 3% a year.
jb
My thoughts exactly, Grim: That 3%/annum appreciation doesn’t seem THAT out of line. What’s scary is that the price declined so fast–most folks hereabouts have been saying that house values are due for a 25%-40% correction. But in past cycles, downward swings have taken years, rather than months, to find their bottom.
Now this is about just one house, so it’s difficult to divine a trend here… And, even though I’m reluctant to go into remote psych eval mode, I gotta say that, based on what I hear from folks I’ve spoken to, it appears that the money on the sidelines (at least on the fringes) is somewhat driven by schadenfreude and what I’ll call, for lack of a better name, “buyers’ greed”: Some who have been shut out of the markets for the past 3-5 years are in it for blood.
Not sure where things go from here.
“it appears that the money on the sidelines (at least on the fringes) is somewhat driven by schadenfreude and what I’ll call, for lack of a better name, “buyers’ greed”: Some who have been shut out of the markets for the past 3-5 years are in it for blood.”
this would only apply to those who realized that the past 3-5 yrs were out of the ordinary. in truth, the upswing was a decade long. Many 1st time buyers do not know anything about the pre-bubble years and consequently may be enticed by small price drops
Nice work Cliffy, I’ll bet that realtor hasn’t seen an e-mail like that for years.
“Some who have been shut out of the markets for the past 3-5 years are in it for blood.”
It’s not personal, just business.
Sellers won’t be doing high-fives after the closing anymore.
this would only apply to those who realized that the past 3-5 yrs were out of the ordinary. in truth, the upswing was a decade long. Many 1st time buyers do not know anything about the pre-bubble years and consequently may be enticed by small price drops
Skep: Potato-Po-tah-to. I see where you’re going with this, and I agree… to a point. Many buyers have been sitting it out for a couple of years, not because they smell something rotten, but because the had the good sense not to buy something they couldn’t afford. There are a lot of people out there–smart people, good people, sexy people in $299 jeans–who have the good sense to look at price trends before making the biggest investment (or purchase) in their lives. But before they do that, they ask themselves the elemental, if not forgotten, questions: “Can we afford this?” And the one the missus and I asked ourselves before we signed on the dotted line: “Will we feel like chumps for paying this much>”
Look around on this board. Several posters claim to have been renting because the prices are too high. They, among others including many of my friends and coworkers, represent the money on the sidelines. (And, in fact, I do, too, just not for a primary residence.) A select few, not I, are eager to stick it to what Booya calls the greedy grubbers. Hence my claim of Bloodlust: The Home Buyer’s Game.
Un: As usual (about the housing market, anyway), you’re right. Not many post-closing end zone dances among sellers.
Cliffy-
Still seems awfully high, 475-480 for a slab foundation (?), barely a living room, no dining room, jungle/overgrown forest backyard?
If it’s in a great neighborhood/town, maybe…
JM
Another reply from the agent received on 9/27/06. Ref. MLS2611385
Hi Cliffy,
I suggest you read the article on MSN.com, it is not so bad as you think.
We have offers above your suggested price and we are still negotiating.
My Reply- Sent on 9/27/06
Well, I wish you Good luck in the negotiations.
As reading rosy articles (I have not read the MSN yet, but I will), there are tons of articles in all media about the out of control housing crisis of the last couple of years. All the historical fundamentals were out of the window, such as the ratio of the median income to home prices in our region. You think it is it quite normal appreciation of 15-20% a year? Based on what? All of the sudden people starting making big buck salaries, got 15-20% raises per year? Or all of sudden we had a population time bomb and Manhattan got much closer (some of the buzz words I am sure you hear or use everyday) Even the biggest cheer leader in your profession see a bleak months ahead?! But other impartial experts see things will get much worse in the coming years. If it is normal to get 15-20% appriaction in a year then it is quite normal to see the chart going the other way. Seller are in denial, because they think the have earned it. (I am a buyer and a seller). So you have this standstill of glut in inventory and few transactions. The sooner it gets to the bottom the better it is to the market as sales will pick up again when buyers realize they are not buying deprecating assets. Hey we may see another run up after we hit the bottom. You know real estate is cyclic. Houses do appreciate in the long run only at a normal pace which is just above the inflation say 5% a year.
Just my unsolicited two cents.
Thanks for listening and good luck again (you may need it).
Cliffy, I’d be curious to hear that realtor’s reaction to this chart of real estate prices for the last 100 years:
http://graphics10.nytimes.com/images/2006/08/26/weekinreview/27leon_graph2.large.gif
wow!!! that’s some graph!!! eye opening to say the least… now I know why we didn’t buy a house this year!