Comments on: August Otteau Report

By: PMD

PMD — Sat, 30 Sep 2006 20:03:09 +0000

Guys:

Are you really sure that prices are dropping – I have been following the realestat in NNJ for morethan a year – I just see a drop of 10 to 20 K for a 1/2 mil house. This is not a price drop !!

Sellers are just adamant and not letting go the high price. The shitty houses are over priced and just sitting on the market and nobody even looks at them. Those who had good houses are out of the market by delisting or selling them to a dumb fellow.

By: bubbletuner

bubbletuner — Sat, 30 Sep 2006 06:37:57 +0000

One more thing-
It’s so interesting how market psychology begins to creep in. I know 2 people who have houses up for sale. Both people of course want to sell high and then buy low (take advantage of all those desperate sellers out there). But of course no one wants to be a desperate seller themselves. But of course with time, houses will have to be sold at current market prices. Life goes on, life, death, divorce and the like. Builders in northern NJ will also have to cut their losses and sell existing vacant lots at “discounts” from highs of the past. For example, I heard of one prominent McMansion builder in Monmouth county “Kara Homes” can’t seem to sell out left over lots and may have to file chapter 11. That’s from reliable insider info from company employees. Can’t wait to see the headlines. All you renters out there, patience is a virtue. It’s starting to brighten up out there. The word on the street in Bergen and Essex counties in the 1 million-1.5 million range is that the market hasn’t “slowed down”, it’s “evaporated”….virtually no traffic, no bids without deep cuts in prices.

By: bubbletuner

bubbletuner — Sat, 30 Sep 2006 06:27:43 +0000

I’m optimistic about a continued slide in home prices of about 10-15% per year over the next 2 to 3 years until prices stabilize. It’s the progression of the normal real estate cycle just like the early 80′s and early 90′s. It’s amazing to me how many people are so naive and just refuse to listen to the experts about how real estate cycles operate. I have been following real estate in northern nj for the past year. It’s amazing what has happened in such a short time. Inventories have skyrocketed just as demand has plummeted. Until the surpluss of houses starts to come down, prices will keep coming down slowly. It’s going to be nice to watch as the market continues to deflate.

By: gary

gary — Sat, 30 Sep 2006 01:27:08 +0000

Thank God the slide is over!!! Now my house will start appreciating at 12% per year again! You side-liners better buy quick before you’re priced out forever!

By: James Bednar

James Bednar — Fri, 29 Sep 2006 23:57:53 +0000

You really need to compare with last month to see where the changes were.

I’m working on a side-by-side. Personally, I don’t think August was much of a “pop”. Nothing we didn’t already know from the preliminary data posted much earlier in the month.

By: BC Bob

BC Bob — Fri, 29 Sep 2006 23:31:51 +0000

Vb,

That and how many buyers fell for the “incentives”??? Buyers may be thinking that it’s a bargain with the free options, mortgage payments for 6 mos-1 year, buying out an existing property, etc… What will the next round of incentives entail???

By: vb4203

vb4203 — Fri, 29 Sep 2006 22:58:51 +0000

I think the prop in August was because the school year starts in September. These buyers must have waited till the last minute.

By: BklynHawk

BklynHawk — Fri, 29 Sep 2006 22:47:36 +0000

Grim-
That image from the link isn’t much easier to read.

By: James Bednar

James Bednar — Fri, 29 Sep 2006 20:26:22 +0000

Shrunk the image to get it to fit, use this link for a better view: Otteau August