Lowball! 10/1 – 10/15

Welcome to another edition of Lowball!

Lowball! takes a look at home sales from a different perspective. For those new to Lowball!, a lowball offer is when a buyer offers a significantly lower bid than asking in hopes that the seller accepts the offer. We take a list of home sales from the past month and pick out the sales that have the highest percentage difference between original list price and selling price.

The purpose of Lowball! is to show buyers that the market has changed and buyers now have considerably more leverage than sellers. Just a short time ago, Lowball! offers would have been laughed at and discarded, however, not any more. The fact that so many under-asking offers are being accepted is clear proof that the market is changing.The list does not contain all sales, I hand-pick the most interesting sales from the list. These listings might be the highest dollar drops, biggest percentage reductions, or sales in towns that are thought to still be ‘hot’. Please note, even with double digit percentage reductions, these homes are still incredibly overpriced.

Below is a list of all Lowball sales from October 1st through the 15th. I used the 17% off OLP point for this table.

MLS Town OLP LP SP % off OLP % off LP
1638072 Raritan Twp. (1921) $1,000,000 $1,000,000 $560,000 44.0% 44.0%
2243604 Garwood Boro (2906) $1,099,999 $749,900 $650,000 40.9% 13.3%
2317643 Denville Twp. (2308) $632,000 $499,999 $425,000 32.8% 15.0%
2270484 Verona Twp. (1620) $425,000 $335,000 $300,000 29.4% 10.4%
2261372 White Twp.* (3023) $199,900 $175,000 $142,500 28.7% 18.6%
2308114 Haledon Boro (2503) $299,900 $219,900 $219,000 27.0% 0.4%
2284054 Mount Olive Twp. (2327) $698,000 $589,000 $515,000 26.2% 12.6%
2258252 Kingwood Twp. (1916) $324,900 $269,900 $240,000 26.1% 11.1%
2287464 Oakland Boro (1142) $369,000 $329,000 $275,000 25.5% 16.4%
2102578 Liberty Twp. (3014) $219,000 $169,900 $165,000 24.7% 2.9%
2295795 Tewksbury Twp.* (1924) $2,495,000 $2,495,000 $1,900,000 23.8% 23.8%
2100541 Rahway City (2913) $299,900 $299,900 $230,000 23.3% 23.3%
2276556 Montgomery Twp $550,000 $449,900 $425,000 22.7% 5.5%
2270561 West Orange Twp $489,000 $449,000 $382,500 21.8% 14.8%
2253791 Jefferson Twp.* (2314) $370,000 $300,000 $290,000 21.6% 3.3%
2263452 Plainfield City* (2912) $350,000 $275,000 $275,000 21.4% 0.0%
2275390 Denville Twp.* (2308) $699,900 $599,900 $550,000 21.4% 8.3%
2270268 Summit City (2918) $799,900 $724,900 $630,000 21.2% 13.1%
2255151 Essex Fells Twp. $1,349,000 $1,199,000 $1,065,000 21.1% 11.2%
2244385 North Plainfield Boro $399,000 $339,000 $315,000 21.1% 7.1%
2264777 Montague Twp.* (2816) $230,000 $207,000 $182,000 20.9% 12.1%
2108070 Chester Twp. (2307) $465,000 $399,900 $368,000 20.9% 8.0%
2263242 Alexandria Twp.* (1901) $949,900 $849,900 $758,550 20.1% 10.7%
2269934 Ridgewood Village $769,900 $689,000 $615,000 20.1% 10.7%
2240543 Franklin Twp.* (2708) $369,000 $299,900 $295,000 20.1% 1.6%
2260575 Berkeley Heights Twp. $550,000 $499,900 $440,000 20.0% 12.0%
2258630 West Orange Twp. $524,900 $465,000 $420,000 20.0% 9.7%
2282532 Chester Boro (2306) $399,900 $399,900 $320,000 20.0% 20.0%
2251391 Dover Town* (2309) $349,900 $299,900 $280,000 20.0% 6.6%
2243924 Clifton City (2502) $385,000 $328,900 $309,000 19.7% 6.1%
2239362 Stockton Boro (1923) $418,900 $398,900 $337,000 19.6% 15.5%
2275742 Montclair Twp. (1613) $925,000 $769,000 $747,000 19.2% 2.9%
2269814 Clifton City* (2502) $779,000 $645,000 $630,000 19.1% 2.3%
2270640 Vernon Twp.* (2824) $340,000 $309,000 $275,000 19.1% 11.0%
2255654 Harding Twp. (2313) $2,595,000 $2,095,000 $2,100,000 19.1% -0.2%
2285491 Jefferson Twp.* (2314) $319,900 $289,900 $260,000 18.7% 10.3%
2263624 Morris Twp. (2324) $910,000 $790,000 $740,000 18.7% 6.3%
2268503 Mahwah Twp.* (1133) $549,999 $449,999 $449,000 18.4% 0.2%
2317407 City Of Orange Twp. $169,000 $169,000 $138,000 18.3% 18.3%
2297981 Hillside Twp.* (2907) $269,000 $249,000 $220,000 18.2% 11.6%
2299764 Lake Mohawk Sparta $1,100,000 $1,100,000 $900,000 18.2% 18.2%
2279131 North Plainfield Boro $150,000 $125,000 $123,000 18.0% 1.6%
2252034 Clifton City* (2502) $439,000 $379,900 $360,000 18.0% 5.2%
2304873 Wayne Twp.* (2514) $194,900 $194,900 $160,000 17.9% 17.9%
2311244 Garfield City (1121) $219,000 $219,000 $180,000 17.8% 17.8%
2266028 Lopatcong Twp. (3015) $219,000 $189,900 $180,000 17.8% 5.2%
2253628 Lambertville City $365,000 $347,000 $300,000 17.8% 13.5%
2277918 Livingston Twp.* (1610) $675,000 $559,900 $555,000 17.8% 0.9%
2276278 Mendham Boro* (2319) $789,900 $695,900 $650,000 17.7% 6.6%
2281010 Clifton City (2502) $509,000 $419,000 $419,000 17.7% 0.0%
2284841 Springfield Twp. (2917) $589,000 $527,500 $485,000 17.7% 8.1%
2270462 Bernards Twp.* (2702) $529,900 $449,900 $437,000 17.5% 2.9%
2236929 Bethlehem Twp.* (1902) $679,900 $574,900 $560,900 17.5% 2.4%
2270404 Paterson City (2508) $315,000 $290,000 $260,000 17.5% 10.3%
2298885 Piscataway Twp. (2117) $339,000 $310,000 $280,000 17.4% 9.7%
2287241 Elizabeth City* (2904) $224,900 $224,900 $186,000 17.3% 17.3%
2267245 Maplewood Twp. $1,148,000 $999,000 $950,000 17.2% 4.9%
2256493 Clifton City* (2502) $579,900 $499,000 $480,000 17.2% 3.8%
2262946 Roxbury Twp.* (2336) $595,000 $500,000 $492,500 17.2% 1.5%
2109379 South Plainfield Boro $439,900 $439,900 $365,000 17.0% 17.0%
2092266 Paterson City (2508) $235,000 $235,000 $195,000 17.0% 17.0%
2252280 Pequannock Twp $499,900 $439,900 $415,000 17.0% 5.7%

Below you’ll find a link to an Excel table that contains all GSMLS sales from 10/1 – 10/15. It includes Bergen, Essex, Hunterdon, Hudson, Middlesex, Morris, Passaic, Somerset, Sussex, Union, and Warren counties.

Sales Data (Large XLS Warning)

Caveat Emptor!
James

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56 Responses to Lowball! 10/1 – 10/15

  1. SAS says:

    Keywords.
    “even with double digit percentage reductions, these homes are still incredibly overpriced.”

    Thanks for the data Grimy.

    SAS

  2. James Bednar says:

    Let me know if the Excel data is useful.

    jb

  3. James Bednar says:

    FYI, the excel data is all sales, including a number of “highballs”.

    jb

  4. Lindsey says:

    We’re through the rough patch. The market’s really starting to pick up as the excess inventory has worked it’s way through the system and I expect to see moderate price increases through the rest of the year before things really pick up in the spring.

    OK, I just said that to see what it would be like to be David Lereah. It feels icky, but if the NAR is interested, I might be available at the right price.

  5. Lisoosh says:

    OK, I’ll bite, what is the story behind that first house?

  6. James Bednar says:

    Leffler Hill Road
    1800’s home on 31+ acres.

    jb

  7. UnRealtor says:

    Love the new format and the Excel download is fabulous!

  8. UnRealtor says:

    This Greedy Grubber somehow managed to escape the busted bubble — so many close calls with disaster:

    17 Marion Ave, Short Hills

    Apr 18, 2006 – $1,595,000 (MLS 2268791)

    May ??, 2006 – $1,545,000

    Jun ??, 2006 – $1,499,000

    Jun 14, 2006 – Under Contract

    Jul 21, 2006 – Back on Market @ $1,499,000 (same MLS #)

    Jul 28, 2006 – Under Contract

    Aug 05, 2006 – Back on Market @ $1,499,000 (same MLS #)

    Sep 13, 2006 – Under Contract

    Oct 12, 2006 – Closed @ $1,499,000

  9. 007 says:

    James,
    The excel file is extremely useful. Thanks for the hard work. We all appreciate your effort. This site is the 2nd most web page I go everyday.

    007.

  10. chicagofinance says:

    James Bednar Says:
    October 15th, 2006 at 10:41 am
    FYI, the excel data is all sales, including a number of “highballs”.
    jb

    Ahhhhh…..that reminds me, I’ve got to go to the liquor store :)

  11. Down down down down it goes says:

    Sellers Please Please do not be dreaming of a rebound this spring. It may happen for about 1 week then it caves down again. The Bear is hingary for greedy sellers. You will be hoodwinked by the Bear hosuing market. It ain’t coming back for a long time…..years.

    Let the misery begin!

  12. Down down down down it goes says:

    Regret remorse words to describe grubbing sellers i the spring. NO HOPE of rebound and reality sinking in in the spring.

    NO REBOUND this spring will nail this thing into the gutter.

    I want lots of misery. Man do I like buying things when they are plunging…..

    BOOOOOOOOOOYAAAAAAAAA

    Bob

  13. Al says:

    Guide to “How to sell yoou house for any price you want”

    I. Pick desired Price (have no raltioon to real value or somps whatsoever.)

    II Price house att least 30% above that and put it on MLS listing.

    III To month later drop the price by 5%

    IV three month later releast the same price as in III but mention “highly motivated seller”.

    V when negotiating with next buyer/agent mention that you are considering huge reduction. When they will come to talk to you say well I will do 15% reduction, and eventually agree on 25 (but do not say 25% say quater off the price).

    VI You got your house sold at the price you wanted to.

    VII post your experience here so we will know that not all idiots are gone yet.

  14. Seneca says:

    Best website EVER! JB for President and all that. I finally have real and recent comps at my fingertips and comps are the #1 tool for any buyer looking to negotiate a deal.

    So based on this data, of all the homes that sold in the first two weeks of October, 14% were originally priced “right”. (I know most on this board would disagree with that statement but “right” is defined as what someone, somewhere was willing to pay for the home.) That leaves 86% of homes with OLPs that were too high. Moreover, 22% of the OLPs were priced too high by more than 10%.

    My focus is on Union County so for anyone else following these towns, here are some weighted average discounts to OLPs:
    Berkeley Heights: 9%
    Clark: No Data (I guess real estate is simply dead in Clark, NO sales!)
    Cranford: 5.2%
    Fanwood: 4.8%
    New Providence: 6.6%
    Rahway: 5.2%
    Scotch Plains: 6.7%
    Springfield: 12.1%
    Summit: 7%
    Westfield: 1.5%

  15. Hard Place says:

    Anyway to get the old MLS info for these lowballs or do you have to have full MLS access? I just wanted to get an idea why some of these places are getting such discounts of OLP. Are they just listed extremely high? or are they sellers that are motivated?

  16. SJ Observer says:

    JB,

    Do you have access to same data for South Jersey, or do you know another source? Specifically, I am looking for information on Burlington County. Thanks in advance!

    SJ Observer

  17. waters says:

    Not sure if this is kosher to post, but if you use this link:

    (edited)

    The last 7 digits are the MLS#, so you can look up other MLS #’s.

  18. James Bednar says:

    Not kosher, but if anyone is interested, email me.

    jb

  19. mkfinancial says:

    Grim – Excel data is great. Any chance you might expand the blog and start providing data covering central NJ (Monmouth Cty)? I suspect the same is happening there but at open houses today there appears to be a lot of denial.

  20. still_looking says:

    Hi, I am interested in the link but can’t seem to find how to email you. Can you let me know how to email you?

    Thanks in advance.

    love the excel data!!!

  21. NavyVet says:

    I second the request for including Monmouth county since that’s where I’m looking to buy. Adding Ocean county would be great too but Monmouth is my main focus. Whaddya think? Of course since I’m not doing any of the work, my request is the easy part….

  22. waters says:

    still_looking,
    I can send it to you. email me at sheeps “at” verizon.net

  23. Eric says:

    Can someone post what the OLP, LP, etc. stand s for in the spreadsheet. Thanks! And great site!

  24. What a professional! I commend you on your professionalism. You are actually giving us realtors a good image.

    I’m an investor and realtor. My primary focus is in Newark and the surrounding neighborhood.

    Prices have definetely dropped. But, in my opinion, they have dropped 5% but not more than 10%.

    Now when people call me to sell their properties they already know that the market is soft. As a matter of fact I prime my client and tell them to price it below comps because as the market drops you want to be ahead of the curve. Otherwise the pricing will always be behind the curve.

    Only true “sellers” are selling their property. All the tire kickers, who are trying to get top dollar are not getting viewings of their properties – let alone offers.

    I have several properties for sale at http://www.georgekasimos.com . Now these are investment properties that I am talking about. In February I sold an 18 unit building for TOP DOLLAR.

    My recent contracts are for a 3 family in newark which was originally listed at 359K. To view click here http://www.georgekasimos.com/364s12 . I actually had an offer on it for the full amount. But with the sellers concession the appraisal came in short. The seller agreed to a minor price reduction to come in under the appraisal. The property has passed all inspections and appraisals and all other minor issues and is due to close at the end of the month.

    Bottom line. Concerning investment properties.
    If the “numbers” are right then the property sells. The major thing that will affect investment property pricing will be interest rates.

    I am very concerned with the market for my own reasons. I also am an investor who is converting a 21 unit building into condos (click her for more info http://www.georgekasimos.com/eocondo ) and am building 22 condos in West New York (www.georgekasimos.com/wnycondo).

    Again Great Blog!

  25. Pat says:

    George, you have some kahonas. I like your style, though, cause your spelling is worse than mine. You maybe should get out of real estate and open a pork barbeque stand in Lakewood.

  26. Pat says:

    P.S….no offense meant there. Paaleeese don’t get all nutso.

  27. James Bednar says:

    George,

    Just an FYI.

    In the future, if you are going to post links to your own site, please run it by me first. Agent advertising is not permitted here.

    James

  28. FH NJ says:

    I am from Monmouth County as well & would love data from the area. Just sold my Middletown house last year, after 7 yrs. Now we’re renting and waiting w/our 10mth old.

  29. Hard Place says:

    Grim,

    Just got around to downloading the full spreadsheet. Great info and appreciate it. Is this something you plan on making available in the future as well?

  30. lina says:

    All,
    How can I see what house the MLS number refers to on these sales? If I go onto realtor.com, these listings are gone b/c they’ve sold. Would love to see if I can get a sense of where some of these listings are in town.

  31. BB says:

    Grim / Anyone…for the last lowball…in Pequannock, can you give the street? Was it on Della Ave?

  32. Seneca says:

    BB – Pequannock house was on Center Street off of Newark-Pompton Turnpike.

  33. lina says:

    If someone can look up the following MLS for these sold in Maplewood, that would be great!

    2298577
    2289463

  34. Seneca says:

    lina
    2298577 – 22 Menzel
    2289463 – 210 Hilton

  35. UnRealtor says:

    Here’s another lowball Grim:

    MLS 2281901
    49 Pine Street, Millburn

    May 24, 2006 listed @ $619,000

    Dropped to $519,000

    Closed @ $450,000 Oct 13th.

  36. Yuriy says:

    http://www.njmls.com/cf/details.cfm?mls_number=2638492&id=999999

    Hello everybody! Just trying to get some honest opinions. Please feel free to comment.

    Thank you!

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