Since it’s quiet on the news front and many are on holiday, I’m going to start the Open Discussion early this week.
This is the time and place to post observations about your local areas, comments on news stories or the New Jersey housing bubble, open house reports, etc. If you have any questions you wanted to ask earlier in the week but never posted them up, let’s have them. Also a good place to post suggestions, requests for information, criticism, and praise.
For readers that have never commented, there is a link at the top of each message that is typically labelled “[#] Comments“. Go ahead and give that a click, you might be missing out on a world of information you didn’t know about. While you are there, introduce yourselves to everyone.
For new readers that have only read the messages displayed on the main page, take a look through the archives, a substantial amount of information has been put online in the past year. The archives can be accessed by using the links found in the menus on the right hand side of the page.
This post will remain at the top of the page during the weekend, any new posts will be displayed below.
Happy Thanksgiving everyone.
jb
Mish has an interesting new post up today:
Open Market Operations, Interest Rates, and Gold
I have been reading many claims in many places lately that “The Fed is pumping M3”. Others claim that Fed Open Market Operations (repos and coupon passes) are purposely being used by the Fed to fuel the stock market. Others still point to manipulation in gold. This post attempts to look at those claims.
Have a Nice Holyday all!
Both refi and purchase apps fall this week.
US home loan demand falls, first dip in three weeks
U.S. mortgage applications fell for the first time in three weeks despite a dip in mortgage rates to their lowest level since January, an industry trade group said on Wednesday.
The Mortgage Bankers Association said its seasonally adjusted index of mortgage application activity, which includes both refinancing and purchasing loans, for the week ended Nov. 17 decreased 3.7 percent to 623.6 from the previous week’s 647.5.
…
The MBA’s seasonally adjusted purchase index, widely considered a timely gauge of U.S. home sales, fell 2.8 percent to 401.4. The index was substantially below its year-ago level of 472.3.
The group’s seasonally adjusted index of refinancing applications decreased 4.3 percent to 1,935.3. A year earlier the index stood at 1,584.1.
…
The ARM share of activity was unchanged at 25.5 percent of total applications.
Quote from the Telegraph Newspaper:
“‘We actually dropped it $10,000 and the agent offered to give money back from her commission. We had an offer, but they wanted us to move out right away,’ she said. ‘They got nervous about the time frame and backed out,’ she said.”
“‘We decided to take it off the market and put it on in the spring,’ Ms. Ripa said. ‘We’ll do some cosmetic work. The house is paid off, so it’s not like we have to move.’”
It is amazing that sellers are still confident that there are plenty of dumb buyers out there. “We’ll do some cosmetic work and put it back on the market next spring” ????
What the $%#@$# ?
Anti,
That’s why I feel we have a long way to go on the downside. There seems to be a lackadasical attitude on the part of sellers, they feel that all will be well this spring.
Good luck to the greedy grubbing seller. They will be feeling mighty miserable come spring when the bounce isn’t there and then realization sets in for all sellers. Right now some sellers are getting it but majority are in lalalaland still.
2007 SPRING HOUSING MASSACRE COMING TO A HOOD NEAR YOU.
BABABABABA
Bottoms form at capitulation….Greedy grubbers still have that green in their eyes….it will turn red when the papapapapapanic begins in the spring…..
be really worried grubbers…..when everyone is trying to get out it is to late….you wuill be trampled.
BOOOOOOOOOYAAAAAAAAAA
Bob
Wishing all the bubble bloggers a safe and happy holiday…bigwindow style!
JB,
Thanks again for all you do!!!! Happy Turkey day to everyone!!
Happy ham day (i dont like turkey) mmmmmm ham
Happy Turkey Day all…enjoy the meals that I know none of you paid for by refinancing!
Homer,
I heard the state will charge you a toll to go to the store to pick up your ham!!!!! They have been reading your posts and fell that a virtual toll road is a great idea. Your EZ Pass will be tracked this weekend, the state is looking for a big windfall this holiday weekend!!
BC Bob,
I’ll throw in the RFID that’s on the ham’s tag, and we’ll be able to surveil Homer and his ham’s Thanksgiving odyssey. Let’s see, Animal Farm, Brave New World, 1984…. Homer’s Illiad & Odyssey?
Happy Thanksgiving to you ALL! James you’re the best cult following since Weird NJ!
Can anyone use the following words in an example? I think I understand the definitions but perhaps not the depth/severity of the words in a worse case scenario. Anything else I should note for additional leverage?
1. easement*
2. rider
3. lis pendes
4. lien
* Is it a big deal if property has an easement, in the front yard for public works? Oh wait, my koi pond dreams!
Happy ham day (i dont like turkey) mmmmmm ham
Always a contrarian Homer!
Happy Thanksgiving to all ( as if this is the last time I ‘ll be checking this blog, right!)
James a real great holiday to you, no blogging at the table….
Hope this was’nt posted already and it is california – but a good article all the same.
http://www.ocregister.com/ocregister/money/homepage/article_1361000.php
KL
thanks for all the great links and input. jb, great work and good weekend.
curiousd
“The dollar tumbled to a three-month low against the euro and a three-week low against Japan’s yen Wednesday, undermined by growing concern that economic growth in the U.S. will slow more than forecast.”
http://www.marketwatch.com/news/story/currencies-us-growth-concerns-upend/story.aspx?guid=%7BFE7A2F6C%2D52E2%2D4F0D%2D981C%2DD9A6F4EEB51A%7D
For those who don’t understand why our property taxes are so high. From the Daily Record:
Hanover Pk. schoolschief to retire with $120,754 pension
Hanover Park Regional Superintendent John Adamus, Morris County’s longest-serving superintendent with 21 years at the helm of the high school district, will retire effective Feb. 1.
Adamus, who was the second-highest paid superintendent in the county last year with a salary of $179,500, has taken heat for his salary, one school board member said. In addition, this year, he was the public face of a district grappling with the arrest of dozens of current and former students for prescription drug sales and the deaths of three recent graduates to drug overdoses.
…
Adamus is estimated to receive a maximum pension of $120,754 per year or $10,062 per month. Adamus has a total of 37 years public school experience, all at Hanover Park. He will not be penalized for retiring before the age of 60.
WOW: pension!!! of $120,754 per year or $10,062 per month.
Can I get a show of hands, how many here would like a pension of $10,062 per month for 21 years work?
Hell, how many here would be happy to be able to earn $10,062 a month?
jb
Took a trip to the library last night, found a good one: Lets turn the way back machine to 1984! (Sorry about the long post)
THE DAY LOS ANGELES’S BUBBLE BURST
By Benjamin Stein
New York Times Dec 8, 1984
My pal Jerry P. just bought a condominium in Century City, in Beverly Hills, for 60 percent of what it sold for in 1980. Down the street from me here in the Hollywood hills, four houses have been on the market since 1981. The asking prices now are about one-third less than they were three years ago. Up and down Sunset Boulevard in West Hollywood, apartment houses that were converted to condos lie empty, boarded up, not one unit sold, in bankruptcy, with banks holding title.
New Yorkers do not like to believe they could learn anything from California, but perhaps in this one case they might try.
The Southern California residential real estate boom began in about 1974. It was not just a boom. It was a super boom, with miserable bungalows in Santa Monica running up from $40,000 in 1974 to $400,000 by 1980. Two-story colonials in Beverly Hills went from $200,000 to $800,000 and then over a million. One-bedroom condos in Hollywood were built and sold for $100,000 – what a house in Beverly Hills had been five years before. Every day, home buyers would look at the prices and say, “It can’t go on.” But every day, for five years, it did go on. Middle-class families were priced out of the market, and the brokers said, “But the rich will always be able to buy.” Ordinary rich people were squeezed out of the market in some areas, but the brokers said, “Never mind, the music business people will buy anything.” The music business fell into a depression in 1979, and the brokers said, “
The foreigners are buying. Compared with Paris or Teheran, real estate in Holmby Hills is a bargain.”
Everyone wanted to get in to the game, get the down payment on a house, somehow struggle with the payments for a year, then sell out and get rich quick. Inflation pushed housing prices into the stratosphere. But even when inflation stopped, brokers said, “The prices have nothing to do with inflation. Everyone on earth wants to live in L.A. The price will go up forever here, no matter what else happens in the rest of the country.”
Then the music stopped, some afternoon in 1980. As if a spell had fallen over the city, suddenly things began to stay on the market for three months, six months, a year, two years. Buyers disappeared. Asking prices stayed high, but nothing sold.
The great Southern California real estate boom was over. Prices had gotten so high that they could no longer be justified by inflationary expectations, or the influx of foreigners, or the climate, or for any other reason.
Now, four years later, those brokers who are still in the game tell sellers to expect that their houses will be on the market for two years. Other brokers have sold their BMW’s and are now working as “financial planners” or public-relations people, dreaming of the days when they worked for 6 percent of infinity.
THOSE WHO IGNORE HISTORY ARE DOOMED TO REPEAT IT
It is amazing that sellers are still confident that there are plenty of dumb buyers out there. “We’ll do some cosmetic work and put it back on the market next spring” ????
I think the spring will bring another wave of inventory. Many sellers are writing-off 2006 as a hiccup year in an otherwise stellar housing market that will take care of itself by spring. After all, our good friend David Lereah tells us that RE will rebound in the spring. If you are a seller and believe David, why sell now? Unfortunatly, his prognostications will only make things worse.
My immediate neighbor put up his house for sale about 2 months ago. Since then, he has lowered his price over $200K. Had an open house this past weekend and not a single person showed.
anecdotal but in the spirit of ‘greedy grubbers’ i know people at the coast that have had their homes on the market for months with no offers and are RAISING their prices.
these are not rich people. average joes. but they won’t take their prices down because ‘they can wait’.
there is a lot of this out there…and inventories will keep going up… and the prices will keep being set by the marginal buyer/seller (those which transact) and over time the ‘they can wait’ crowd will come down. BUT its going to be a long, sorry *ss, likely-slow ride down IMHO.
JB Thanks for all you do, a voice of sanity, in a real estate market and a state that is out of control.
Its noce to know that I am not crazy, that there are others out there who understand what is going on. Peace.
“Hell, how many here would be happy to be able to earn $10,062 a month?”
My hand is up! But I want it the way he’s getting it – for NOT WORKING ANYMORE!
Happy T-weekend all!
Have a question on siding.
Were any homes in NJ built with Masonite siding, which are part of a class-action lawsuit.
Here’s a link:
http://www.hadd.com/masonite/
A lot of pre-1996 houses in KS are affected by this siding.
My house in KS has this siding, and neither my Realtor nor the Home Inspector mentioned it. I discovered it a year after purchase.
seems like the market will be at a standstill for the next 3-5 months. you can predict that any slowness will be attributed to the season rather than fundamental weakness. don’t see any reason for sellers to capitulate now if they haven’t already. too easy for them to convince themselves that things will be better in the spring
Happy Turkey Day all.
Another funny listing to muse about:
MLS#: 2301733
LD: 07/19/2006
DOM: 126
OLP: $1,050,000
LP: $989,000
TAXES: $17,162
Remarks:Largest in Cinnamon Ridge and on cul-de-sac!! Stunning foyer w/brilliant porcelain flrs, 2-tier deck & HUGE yard.****25K to buyer for closing/updates if sold by 11/22****
Anti’s Comments ;-)
Any one wants 25K towards closing costs MUST spend $989K and buy this house today !! The offer expires today !!
What a joke !
Homer S/Nothing less than 25% off peak 2005:
The reason I say that it will be slow slide in the near term as opposed to a collapse is due to buyers like this chap who got a *deal* on a CONDO in summit:
MLS#: 2318036
1 Euclid Avenue, Summit, NJ
3 Bd RMS: 6 BDRM: 3 FB: 2 HB: 0 TBTH: 2 SQFT: 1720
OLP: $949,000
LP: $895,000
SP: $865,000
LD: 09/08/2006
UCD: 09/25/2006
CD: 11/17/2006
Sure it is 9% off the orignial asking price but it is still 900K for a 3 bed 2 bath condo in summit !
Now you can get 3Br 2.5 Bath town homes with garages and family rooms (including new constuctions units in summit from 500K to 700K depending on the location). When this buyer gets his head out of the sand he will see that he has just been shafted ! ouch !
“Hell, how many here would be happy to be able to earn $10,062 a month?”
Sure as long as I get a monthly Ham bonus
I heard the state will charge you a toll to go to the store to pick up your ham!!!!!
Hey thats why I sent my mother in law to get it :P
Always a contrarian Homer!
Yes well I feel that we should have a national Ham holiday. Also I would most enjoy and national cheese Holiday too. Life doesnt get much better than ham and cheese :P
if anybody has more info on the removal of
an old oil tank it is appreciated.
you really have a problem with an old one.
JB,
Every time I read a story about these pension holders receiving these gigantic payouts it makes me just want to move out of the state. With the high taxes currently being paid by most homeowners, people have been fed up and have moved out of the state. Slowly the pension funds will become underfunded and the shortfall will have to be made up by benefit cuts. Hopefully politicians will realize this and take the bitter bill earlier. If this keeps up NJ is doomed. A bitter piece of reality.
On a more positive note. Thanksgiving and the holidays are here. Have a happy one all…
Hard Place.
Enjoy your holiday everyone.
Financial Planner rant:
Remember to spend within your means!
It’s the thought that counts!
Don’t end up with a financial hangover in January.
Hat tip to the (Jersey) Shore Bubble Blog for this link:
Is Bonus Bump Bogus?
Wall Street’s $36 B. Test
In 2005, Wall Street investment houses handed out a record $21.5 billion in year-end bonuses, according to the State Comptroller. This year may be even bigger, with I-bankers and other staid dice-rollers expecting at least $36 billion total in bonuses to be doled out this winter.
Real-estate brokers must be popping champagne bottles. A very healthy bonus season means a very healthy Manhattan home-sales season in the spring, right?
Not really. While bonuses can pump up springtime prices, the effect on the volume of sales is more Wizard of Oz than Master of the Universe.
“Don’t end up with a financial hangover in January. ”
The only once to wake in spring with a hang over will be those greedy sellers and their ethical advisors.
O.K…teaching that thought early is on my mind. Next week is a school fundraiser dilemma for the Holidays. [It’s about the 12th fundraiser so far.]
All the kids get to “shop” at school. They get a list to fill out, and can buy a $1, $2…. up to $15 present for each person on their list. They have to go with cash in an envelope, and a ‘helper elf’ walks them around the gym and helps them pick out presents. They see the other kids shopping. So you can send them with a $10 or with $150.
What would teach a 5 year old the most?
Note 1: A father told me that last year a lot of the kids were crying, and didn’t have enough money when they got to the cash register.
Note 2: It is for a good cause.
Wow, what an awful thing to do to a five year old… or am I out of line here? It just seems like a lot of pressure for kids that age – who goes on the list, do I have enough money, how come Billy Vanderbilt has $150 and I have $10.
Shouldn’t they really be worrying about how Mom and Dad are going to find a PS3 for them for Christmas and where to hide the peas at dinner tonight?
I’m speechless, well not speechless since I typed up a two page rant, then deleted it realizing I sound like a lunatic.
Frankly, I don’t know what to say other than that is the worst idea for a fundraiser that I’ve ever heard.
jb
grim: I did the same thing.
I think it is ridiculous to put such a pressure on kids – and huge pressure on parents – this is very close to blackmailing the parents. What If I hardly make it and have no extra money???
One more argument toward separation of the society by income level and now it starts at 5 years old???
Hye I have an Idea – hire a lawyer and sue the schoold for punitive damages to kids!!!
JB…Half of me wants to send an extra thick envelope marked “keep at the cash register for any little kid who doesn’t bring enough money.”
The other half says it’s a painful lesson but they need to learn it either at Age 5 or 15.
Sometimes life with Catholic school sucks.
don’t these kids have credit cards?
HAPPY TURKEY DAY!!! to you all. Thanks JB.
BTW,
The reason all of you work like dogs is called
FRACTIONAL RESERVE BANKING.
Look it up, it is a simple concept, yet not 1% will understand it because it is so simple.
Need more, Look up MONEY AS DEBT.
That’s my gift to you all.
I love you as I love myself.
-Sapiens
P.S. Need a treatease on the subject? Read this here, quite lenghty but worth your time and financial welfare—>
http://www.mises.org/books/desoto.pdf
We actually like this program.
The kid gets an envelope that lists the family members and how much to spend on each. Nothing in the whole place costs more than $3.
My wife writes Dad $3, Mom $3, etc right on the envelope. The helper elf takes the kid to special tables where they pick out the item that are appropriate. Nobody really spends more that $20. My son is six and we are in an affluent school district. Nobody brings $150.
The ‘helpers’ need to steer the kids to the right items and there are no tears. Done correctly, the kid can’t spend too much money. My son likes it because he gets to select the gifts and give them to us. The gift that he selected is the highlight of his Christmas day. He would rather give his own present than open things from Santa.
It’s not a bad program at all. Somehow we all get coffee mugs and we don’t even have a coffee pot.
Not really. While bonuses can pump up springtime prices, the effect on the volume of sales is more Wizard of Oz than Master of the Universe.
While the bonuses are big, the securities industry accounted for only 4.7 percent of jobs in New York City in 2005 (NY Times).
According to the NY Dept. of Labor, there are 3.68 million jobs in the city. This would equate to 173,185 jobs in the securities industry. Assuming 25% of these jobs are held by people living in NJ, there are about 43,296 people living in NJ who work on Wall Street.
There are 1.73 million households in Northern NJ. Assuming 1 Wall Streeter per household, 2.5% of households in NNJ are occupied by people with bonuses. Of course, most of these people probably already own. Outside of maybe some specific neighborhoods in Hoboken or JC, the overall impact on the RE market will likely be negligible.
North Jersey Defined as:
Bergen County
Essex County
Hudson County
Morris County
Passaic County
Union County
Middlesex County
d2b…thanks. I wish that was how it worked. This year the chart on the envelope goes to $15. Inflation? I hope your scenario is what really happens.
Pat
pesche22,
I looked for the info onthe firm (burying tank) that did the work for me. I could not locate, I will dig again tonight.
Pat, #38, sounds like a good “sick day.”
:)
any info on the oil tanks send to
pesche22@aol.com
thanks
Here is what I would do in that situation.
I would sit down with my kid the night before, and start with a budget amount, whatever is reasonable, say $15. Make a list of the people who he/she will be purchasing gifts for, and designate a maximum amount to spend per person.
I would tell them that anything saved by purchasing under the amount designated can be used to buy something for themselves or saved.
When making the list, I’d include a purchase for charity, something like Toys for Tots.
jb
Yesterday somebody was cheering the move “up” in lumber. I really did not have the time to comment. Are you (whomever it was)serious with this nonsense??? The Jan contract is now approx $20, (around 263) off its recent low and approx $220 off its 5/04 high (464). Am I freaking missing something??? Somebody else recently mentioned Toll and its strong performance, its approx $8 off its low and approx $30 off its high. You have both of these approx 50% off their highs and you’re cheerleading??? Do you work for CNBC???? Bottom pickers usually have little/no conviction, low prices tend to go lower, not a prediction just an observation regarding market dynamics.
In the meantime, Gold is up approx 70% during the same time interval that lumber is down 50%, and you’re touting lumber??? Total joke!! You chirp when mortgage app’s are up .57, there is silence after the latest report indicates a 3.7% drop.
Enough of that. What is important is that this bubble has burst, weekly/monthly data tells us this. The only remaining question is how severe/time duration. There is complacency out there. Remember approx 28% of 205 buyers were for “investment”, i.e., flip. 12% were for 2nd homes. If you don’t think that speculative fever was a good portion of this, you are just kidding yourself.
Please stop with the rhetoric and concentrate on the facts!!
The latest poison from our politically-correct school systems:
When I stated speculative fever, I meant 2nd homes.
North Jersey Defined as:
Bergen County
Essex County
Hudson County
Morris County
Passaic County
Union County
Middlesex County—Central NJ and is definded as central NJ. Somerset county is more north of Middlesex county and its not north NJ. Bernardsville and surrounding areas are the most northern points of central NJ. Just correciting your mistake
repost from yesterday – may have gotten lost….
chicagofinance Says:
November 21st, 2006 at 11:17 pm
check this out……
http://www.flippernation.com/
episode one: the first flip
Re #46 and 52 posting
New version of the LoanPerformance MarketPulse report is out (you’ll need to register).
Some interesting stats..
Jan – Jun 2006
7.9% of NJ purchase mortgages were NegAm.
Vineland-Millville-Bridgeton, NJ MSA saw 16.23% investor activity
Trenton, NJ MSA saw a 14.47% investor activity.
Chi,
Hilarious!
Re #46 and 52 posting
My sons also had that “buying presents” program at grammar school starting with the Kinderg. class. However, I found it SAD that there was pressure to buy gifts – it made the holiday season very materialistic and commercial with the pressure to buy,buy, buy. It was as if making a gift was not deemed appropriate, even though that would have been more appropriate coming from a 6 or 7 year old. I’d rather have something my child made, that was thought about, even if it didn’t cost money – perhaps coupons for chores. How we handled it was that we told our children that WE (the parents) didn’t want those $ gifts – that they had to make gifts for us. And if they want something in that school store then to buy for themselves out of their allowance money. It worked for us and told our sons that money is NOT the most important part of the holiday season.
Sorry about being off topic, but I had to respond.
I am so glad I posted that question. Felt like a loser for the conflicting thoughts. It’s not something I would discuss at work.
Thanks for the different views, everyone. It does take a village.
Just correciting your mistake
Well than you very much for correcting me. While Middlesex is not NNJ specifically, the Northeast Corridor line passes through much of Middlesex County, making it a prime location for NYC commuters. Okay, maybe Somerset County could be excluded. I put it in due to rail access to Penn Station Newark, but it could probably be excluded. Perhaps I should have defined it as prime NYC commuting counties rather than Northern NJ.
… And its spelled “Correcting”…Just correcting your mistake :)
“There is a general pessimism on the dollar right now,” said Samarjit Shankar, director of global strategy for the foreign exchange group in Boston at Mellon Financial Corp. “People are now concerned that the growth outlook heading into next year is on the down side.”
http://www.bloomberg.com/apps/news?pid=20601087&sid=aKeGCB6bGc6A&refer=home
On the Flippernation site I thought this part was quite comical:
If you’re interested in real estate, thirsty for national exposure, and have a house that needs some attention, we have a great opportunity for you!
Submit your house to be on the show! If selected, we will:
Buy your house from you at under-market value
Fix up your house (inside/outside)
Sell your house back to you for a healthy profit
Need we say more?
Wow so let me get this right if the house is run down and say worth 300k, we sell it to them under market value say at 250k
Right there we lose 50k and than they invest say another 50k into it and than the homeowner buys it back for 400k. Wow where do I sign up, I now am out 150g for a 50k renovation, just to show the world how crapy your house is and to see other people get rich from you.
Why not just pay the 50k in the first place and get it done yourself how you want it. You know flippers are gonna be cheap and cut conners.
I hope that website is a joke
And its spelled “Correcting”…Just correcting your mistake
:)
Seems that I left an important part of my story out.
The part where Jersey Politicians jump out from behind a tree and take money from the pockets of my kids. After which they run away laughing and mumbling something about paying taxes on gift purchases.
:)
jb
Mmmm, that is what the cops and municipal courts are for!
I haven’t been there in a long time, but you should have seen how people were getting fleeced. LOL!
-Sapiens
loved flippernation.com!
Thanks.
BEWARE! BEWARE! I was recentely looking at houses on sale by owners and found that 6 out of 10 houses listed are very very close to High power lines(within 20 meters). Study has proven that safest distance from power lines is 300 meters in order to avoid child lukemia etc. If that is true then 20% houses in NJ should not be bought. I wonder still how come these sellers have guts to list these houses for premium prices. Are they fools or they think buyers are. Very Interesting……
Cite those studies please!
jb
JB,
Here is the link.
http://www.mcw.edu/gcrc/cop/powerlines-cancer-FAQ/toc.html
Under article 19N there is a graph of risk Vs distance.
From EEI:
” To date, there has been no final conclusion about the health effects of EMF. Although several studies conducted in the past suggest a link between proximity to power lines and some forms of childhood cancer, only a few show a statistically significant link, and many show no link at all.”
http://www.eei.org/industry_issues/environment/land/electric_and_magnetic_fields/index.htm
Yes SM. My good friend saved me from buying house near power lines. I backed out after signing the contract. Thanks to my friend again.
RentinginNJ,
The link that you provided is sponsored by Elecrical utility companies. Do you think they will publish studies even if they found any evidence. They would be sued left and right……
Are they fools or they think buyers are
Again and again I have tried to understand this market, and it makes no sence.
Why can a 5000 Square foot home in Parsippany on a nice size lot go for 799k
And in the same town for half the price you get a tiney little cape cod
MLS Number: 2284358 List Price: $399,000
I also want to know why there is a townhome Development in Hillborough, Somerset and East Brunswick that are the same exact townhouse. However the prices range and are higher in somerset than in Hillsborough. When asking a few differenent agents I said Hillsborough is 10 min ride from the townhouses in somerset to the ones in Hillsborough, they are the same, so why is the price higher. The answer I reveive, well these are new than those. Becuase these are newer they are more money. Well if this were true, than a house built in the early 1900 should be dirt cheap according to how these realors explain pricing stucture. And than you have some realtors say well Somerset/Frankin is a prime location. That may all well be true but I live in somerset on Rt 27 and theres nothing, its nothing to do. Wow we have run down New Brunswick right down the road, how exciting.
I know sellers set the price, but what are sellers smoking that they think there price is justified. Well uhh a house same size as mine sold for 30k more last year. That logic is like me saying well I am going to offer you 100k for your house becuase I am sure in some states there are houses for 100k. No logic people have.
FLIPPERS HAVE FLOPPED
BIDDING WARS ARE NO MORE
PRICES MUST DROP SO ALL THE PEOPLE LIKE US can afford.
Homer simpson,
This is like Lucent stock was 80 in 2000, give atleast 70 now. But market says it is worth 3 bucks! Guess what seller has to hold on to that stock for 5 more years hoping to get 70!
Pat,
I will add another suggestion to the many good ones you received. Check out a little book called “Hundred Dollar Holiday” by Bill McKibben. It’s not about money, but values.
Good luck.
Study has proven that safest distance from power lines is 300 meters in order to avoid child lukemia etc. If that is true then 20% houses in NJ should not be bought.
1. I think it is 100 meters (or 300 feet.)
2. not all power lines – just high voltage power lines. because you have power lines in your house.
“Experts blame no downpayment loans, ‘creative’ financing, overbuilding, over-appraised homes and outright fraud as contributors to the growing foreclosure problem.”
Where were these so called “experts” at the height of stupidity…cheering along with all the other dummies.
Expert This!
BOOOOOOOOOOOOYAAAAAAAAAAA
Bob
A portfolio management tool. Not a solicitation nor an endorsement to buy….
Bost
SAS
grim
what ye thinks?
75 bps seems like a lot for a “fee”, but you are obtaining access at the retail level, which is quite a convenience……
http://www.ipathetn.com/prospectuses.jsp
note: correleation to S&P 500 and Lehman ABI is virtually zero
From Reuters:
Here’s an uncomfortable housing scenario that’s getting more common in this soft market: You put in a contract on a new house. You can’t sell your old house. The sellers are getting pushy.
What are you going to do?
It’s a fact. More homeowners are singing a “stuck in the middle with you” duet with their real estate agents. It’s scary, because you can end up facing a situation with two houses, three loans and financial ruin. Or, watching the home you want slip away.
“These bridging homeowners are in nervous circumstances,” says Eric Cunliffe, of realestate.com, a Web site that seeks to generate leads for real estate agents. “They should have one goal: sell that home as fast as they can.”
Lost the link..
Do the housing loan shuffle
chi,
Any comments on how to hedge credit risks associated with the issuer when dealing with ETNs? I know it’s obscure, and unlikely, but something doesn’t sit well when the security isn’t backed by the asset.
jb
Okay,
I didn’t read all the posts but…. The Santa Sale , having been part of it and or running it for years, couple things. We have it every year, its is not a fundraiser. We get the items mark some of them by a quarter,some not all- to cover mistakes, possible put in the pockets, etc. The kids love it. They get an envelope with a list of who their parents want them to buy for and how much to spend on each.
There are alot of parent helpers, we help them find their gifts and stay on their budget
( nice lesson) Many parents give the kids money in there envelope to buy for themselves, and instead they use that money for someone else
( another nice lesson) And most of us parent helpers cover short money situations for these kids – we go into help with the sale and leave broke. My experience with them have always been great. And I know from working with the companys that provide the stuff most of the time these are not fundraisers.
KL
corzine’s future home when constructed
http://www.hudsonteatenants.org/tearoom/viewtopic.php?t=667
James Bednar Says:
November 22nd, 2006 at 2:32 pm
chi,
Any comments on how to hedge credit risks associated with the issuer when dealing with ETNs? I know it’s obscure, and unlikely, but something doesn’t sit well when the security isn’t backed by the asset.
jb
#1 the funds are self-contained, so there is no credit risk associated with BGI – I assume the fund itself will have counterparty risks
#2 even though it is commodities, these are actually very liquid markets and hence easy to hedge in a dynamic way
#3 I assume there is an “implied” guarantee from BGI on “CREDIT” risk. Note, if you do not understand this distinction you should not invest!!! I am not implying remuneration of investment losses, but I wonder assume if one of their robo-traders somehow blows up the fund due to massive tracking-error or counterparty defualt, BGI would step in as a matter of professional reputation – massive underwritier and distributor of ETF/ETN’s wouldn’t want to have a black eye, when these products are just a drop in the bucket compared to the meteoric growth of their more conventional investments.
I suppose it’s time for the standard disclaimer.
The information on this site is provided for discussion purposes only, and are not investing recommendations. Under no circumstances does this information represent a recommendation to buy or sell securities.
Homer, you mentioned you are in somerset off Rt. 27 – me too; renting.
I have heard terrible stuff about Franklin twp schools and looking for something in blue-ribbon schools – south bruns. or east bruns.
East brunswick houses are just ridiculously priced, even compared to the over-priced houses of south bruns.
When looking at Somerset county, are you taking schools into consideration?
I am just curious, how other (potential) home buyers are looking at houses w.r.t schools
A realtor adviced me that.. to get a good house, I could buy one in Franklin twp, and send my kids to private schools.
East Brunswick = Route 18 traffic nightmare.
When looking at Somerset county, are you taking schools into consideration?
Well with twins on the way yes its a factor, however becuase towns that have good highschools to get into are usually pricey areas, so i was considering looking to where they have good elemantry and middle schools. And than maybe move before they get into highshcool. Yes I dont really think that is fair moving them away from there friends, but I don’t see any other way of doing it.
The other problem I run into since I am in the computer field I am always changing jobs. So ideally Hillsborough would be
ideal, and they have good schools, but you cannot get a house for under 300k. And truthfully with the 2 nutty dogs of mine and than having twins..my wife would have a field day with the 4 of them. So thats why we really do need a yard. But I am refuse to spend that much (even if I could afford it) to buy a house with rooms the size of closets. I mean jeez I never thought it would be so much to ask for a 3-4 bed colonial with 2 bathrooms on agleast .25 of an acre…
And I dont see values of home going up that much in the next 10-15 years, so its not like I could upgrade to a bigger place eventually. I mean I would not have such a problem buying a small house but not for 350k.
ANd on your other thoug
A realtor adviced me that.. to get a good house, I could buy one in Franklin twp, and send my kids to private schools.
So I guess everyone in NJ must be millionaires…So you pay 6000.00+ for property tax and than you spend another 10grand a year or however much it is to send them to private school??? I guess since we are too poor to afford better areas I guess we are rich enough to send our kids to private schools…I hope to heck you sent that realtor packing they sound like there full of BS and will tell you anything to buy the place. Just like the one townhouse I saw, the kitchen cabinents were hung up all crooked, the realtor said oh thats an easy thing that you can fix. I looked at the realtor and said ummm I cant fix cabinents. I think one of the main reasons I hate realtors is they always assume. They assume you can send your kids to private schools, they assume everyone works in NYC, they assume every man can repair a home.
That to me shows they only care about there commission. I mean apparantly its that hard to say, well Blah blah is a nice area, but since the houses are a little cheaper you do have an option of sending them to a private shcool. It just seems realtors dont have a clue. I have spoken to ones who have been in real estate for a long time and they still don’t have a clue on how to make a bad problem look good.
READ MY LIPS YOU FRIGGEN DELUSIONAL GRUBBERS….NO REBOUND SPRING 2007 – SPRING HOUSING MASSACRE IN A HOOD NEAR YOU.
Be Really Worried Grubbers…When eveyone papapapappanics You will LEARN about the word ILLIQUIDITY!
This MELTDOWN IS GOING TO HAPPEN QUICKLY THIS TIME. IT’S UNRAVELING NOW BUT THE PACE WILL QUICKEN IN A FEW MONTHS…
BEWARE OF HOME EQUITY GOING POOOOOOOOOFFFFFFFFFF!
BOOOOOOOOOOOOYAAAAAAAAAAA
Bob
GO AHEAD INSIST ON YOUR ENTITLEMENT…The ATTITUDE MUST GO….IT’S GOING GOING GOING GONE SOON….EVER HEAR OF THE WORD HUMBLE…THAT’S THEY WAY YOU WILL BE FEELING LATTER PART OF NEXT YEAR….
THEN YOU WILL BE BEGGING FOR A BID SUBSTANTIALLY BELOW YOUR BLOATED FANTASY PRICE.
IT’S PAYBACK TIME BABY
MAKE’EM PAY!
BOOOOOOOYAAAAAAAA
Bob
ROAST A FEW TURKEYS OH I MEANT REALTORS….
MAKE’EM PAY…
BABABABABA
If anyone is still around… We’re still toying with that house with the junk garage (falling down, dangerous). Any ideas how much it would take to take it down, haul it out, and build a new one. Anecdotally, a friend told us it could be $20k for the demolition and removal alone. Any advice (other than don’t buy)?
‘It’s like trying to sell ice cubes to Eskimos,’ said Kurtz, whose home has been on the market since August 2005.”
BY THE WAY FORGET THAT FRIGGEN SHACK UNLESS IT IS SUSBSTANTIALLY BELOW PEAK PRICES…U DO NOT NEED TO BAIL SOME JERK OUT….LET THEM PAY FOR IT!
Do not be trashed on.
BOOOOOOOOOYAAAAAAAA
Bob
#96 I would budget about $25K ~ $30K for removal and rebuild. The demoltion and hauling away won’t be much, compared to building it.
FTB, you can probably remove and build yourself for about $15K, for a very nice garage.
And since it’s outside, if it takes you a month to build, no one will care. It’s not like gutting a kitchen where the whole house is trashed inside.
One thing to consider, if the garage is very close to the property line, and you tear it down, you probably can’t rebuild in the same location. Most towns have a 12 to 15 foot setback from the property line, which would ruin an entire backyard if the lot was small.
If it’s near the property line, you would have to carefully and quietly rebuild from the inside, making sure it doesn’t fall down, so you can keep it in its current location.
Shilling is on CNBC right now. He’s saying housing will crumble, and the others are in disagreement with him. He says this holiday season is the last hurrah for the consumer because they will no longer have equity in their homes. Also, said sellers are in denial about the housing collapse. Sales have lagged, and prices are next.
Poser, missed the interview :(
If you(or anyone else) comes across the text of the interview online, please post it here.
Thanks
“A portfolio management tool”
Chi,
Haven’t had time to read, may be a good excuse to get away from the table (outlaws)tomorrow!!!
“The worldwide rise in house prices is the biggest bubble in history. Prepare for the economic pain when it pops ”
A 6/05 article in the Economist, worth reading again.
http://www.economist.com/opinion/displaystory.cfm?story_id=4079027
BC Bob, love chart #3, raise your arms in the air and get ready for the rollercoaster ride down!
http://www.economist.com/opinion/displaystory.cfm?story_id=4079027
UnRealtor,
Scary stuff!! It is constructive to go back to these articles 1-1/2 years later. The Economist had this pegged, so did everybody (well not everybody) on this site. This is what leaps out at me;
“Not only does this dwarf any previous house-price boom, it is larger than the global stockmarket bubble in the late 1990s (an increase over five years of 80% of GDP) or America’s stockmarket bubble in the late 1920s (55% of GDP). In other words, it looks like the biggest bubble in history.”
YIKES!!!!
From the same article;
“A study by the National Association of Realtors (NAR) found that 23% of all American houses bought in 2004 were for investment, not owner-occupation. Another 13% were bought as second homes.”
Add to this,in 2005 28% were for “investment”, flip, and 12% were bought as second homes. These numbers are startling!!!
I have no idea how low prices may drop, if at all. HOWEVER, I am DAMN relieved to see prices level off.
Last summer, I experienced the EXACT PANIC emotions one does after an extended frenzy of which you are not a part of.
1) I felt I had better buy a house…ANY house, b/c soon I would not be able to afford a damn thing. I had watched my “mortgage free house” fund dwindle in relative value, fearing this would sooon become nothing more than a downpayment… This happens after seeing prices go balistic year after year.
2) I would drive down the road thinking, there’s a millionairre, and there’s another one. Yup, everyone who lives in a house is a $#@%$# milllionairre now. sitting on a 6 figure profit. I remember thinking with disgust of how long it took me to SAVE a few $100k, while it just appeared for these people automatically. Not bitter, or jealous, but just disgusted at how badly I f*cked up.
My instincts from my stock trading days were the only sanity I had left. There was no way EVERYONE was cashing out, without depressing the market. Just like a stock, excess sellers will drop the price. By definition, everyone can’t sell at the high.
I also thought, how this damn ATM house can turn into a liability. Lots of expenses to maint. a house.
I assume that will now come to the surface a bit more. Now that your increasing equity isn’t exceeding costs each passing month.
Well, I am just happy the market has stopped it’s exponential ascent. I am still in the game. Barely hanging on, and prob. not ever mort. free now…after the doubling from 2000 to 2006. But at least it’s paused.
Grim,
Maybe put your disclaimer as part of the index/main page OR have it as the main page and just have people agree to the disclaimer before entering. My 0.02
Gobble Gobble Everybody!
The High Voltage lines are what’s called ” non ionizing radiation” You probably don’t want to live near them but there are no proof positive studies that they cause cancer. Take a light bulb and hold it in the air on a humid night under the high power lines, sometimes you can get it to light up if enough power going through the lines.
Gave a lowball offer a while ago and there has been a stalemate since. Today I received a call from the listing agent stating that there’s been another offer (also through the listing agent). He gave me the specific number of the other offer, which is higher than our offer. Does anyone know whether giving me the specific number violates the realtor’s code of ethics? BTW – I told I wasn’t going to submit another offer and to get back to me if seller comes down on his number. Given the timing and the nature of the alleged other offer, the whole things seems fishy …
BC Bob – Your #103 Post was the best item I have read in days. Refreshing to read facts (hindsight is 20-20 and the future is clear), rather than speculation one way or the other.
It may be a tough 6 years.
And 1BR – look at the glass-half-full view:
You could have bought within the last two years and gotten destroyed. In that light, you are ahead – good move to hold out!
Situs,
I believe that is a violation. I am not a reator, however in my experience I have been told that they can’t reveal the price, only that there is another offer.
Clot/KL???
JB,
See my post, #106 regarding the past Economist article. Look at the 2004 #’s, the % of homes bought for investment, flippers, and the % of homes bought as vacation homes.
In various present articles, including the Gary Shilling one and the #’s that you brought back from the Otteau symposium (I think you stated this) it states;
The National Association of Realtors’ surveys reveal that in 2005, 28% of all home purchases were for investment and another 12% were vacation homes, for a total of 40%
1) Is it possible that the 2004 & 2005 #’s are almost identical???
2)Do you know how they arrive at these.
I knew the 2005 #’s. I did not realize the magnitude of the 2004 #’s. If these are correct this will be a bigger bust that I thought. Run these #’s thru your head, it’s incredible. They’ll start calling this market the “cockroach market”, stamp one out and 10 more appear!!!
it seems fishy b/c you’ve lost control.
welcome to the self serving world of real estate!
disclosure of preexisting offers is permissible if the homeowner gives permission to the LA to disclose said offer amounts, indeed in some cases disclosure of said offers could incite higher offers
…but probably not until early 2009…
Happy Thanksgiving!
I am not a reator
Neiter am I but , yes your right, I would debate AMS but I’m too tired.
KL
Happy Thanksgiving!
On Power lines, I remember from school about this phenomenon called eddy currents
Here’s the link:
http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Eddy_current
Happy Thanksgiving everyone!
I am thankful I don’t own and need to sell
“I am not a reator”
KL,
Thanks for pointing out my typo, along with your comment, I was moving too fast after reading the past Economist article again. It’s refreshing to see how important/pertinent mistakes are highlighted!!!
Neiter am I but
BC BOB
So kind of you not to point out mine. I am definitly on line way too late… I get goofy.
Happy Thanksgiving.
KL
The who wouldn’t want to make $10k a month says everything about the profile of those that frequently visit this blog.
To Situs (from #100):
Don’t have a copy of Code of Ethics handy, but pretty sure only obligation upon Realtor is to inform of the existence of an ACCEPTED offer. Telling a party in a multiple-offer situation about exact terms of other offers is still ethically sticky, as listing agents bear the responsibility of “fair dealing” to all offering parties. I don’t see how that agent can disclose Party A’s offer to Party B without doing the reverse. However, I’ll go out on a limb and guess that listing agent doesn’t want the party with the higher offer to know that yours is lower.
Far more troubling is the listing agent’s attempt to represent two buyers in the sale of his own listing. Disclosed dual agency is tricky enough, as the agent is now obliged NOT to negotiate on behalf of ANY party to the transaction. How that agent is going to “thread the needle”- of not negotiating, balancing the interests of three different parties and dealing fairly with all- is an impossible task. This agent really should have directed you to find another agent- from another company- to present your offer.
Practially speaking, though, your average listing agent (other than the super-experienced and principled) runs multiple-offer situations like a rug bazaar. The agent’s first desire is usually to “double-dip” the transaction; the second (if one of the buyers in rep’d by a colleague) is to keep the transaction within his office…and the third is to make the sale to the buyer who looks most compliant. The best-qualified, tightest offer that represents top value to the seller runs a distant fourth.
Clot,
I know we banter back and forth, all in good fun, well not always. I truly admire your passion/resolve. Your posts regarding marketing, agent’s role, presenting offers, etc.., are truly educational, I think most would agree. Your market views??? Only kidding, not today. We should all be thankful that we have an opportunity to express ourselves, no matter what viewpoint. In all seriousness, I wish you and your family the best this Thanksgiving!!!!!!!
…………..now off to the Outlaws!!! The best to all!!!
Happy Thanksgiving, y’all!
Chicagofinance — are you hanging out at kannekt.com nowadays? I saw someone there posting under the “chicagofinance” moniker lately. Good luck trying to kick some knowledge over there — as I said here before, the site is infested with flippers, real estate folks, and other assorted deluded imbeciles. Is there something in the water supply in Hoboken and Jersey City that screws up peoples’ brains concerning the real worth of their crappy walkups and cookiecutter Toll Bros./Hovnanian condos? Still, some financial sense is always welcome over there (even if it ends up getting censored or deleted, as the site manager is known to do to any real estate skeptics).
Homer: I am originally from Hillsborough myself. I’ve also wondered lately why Hillsborough real estate is so “cheap” compared to places like Franklin — when I was growing up, Franklin was definitely NOT considered more desirable than Hillsborough. Franklin has some nice homes, that’s true, but the parts neighboring New Brunswick are ghetto (which, in turn, affects Franklin’s school system). The only possible explanations that I can think of as to why Hillsborough is “cheap” is because it’s not as convenient to public transportation (there are lots of NYC and Philly commuters in town, and you have to deal with traffic to get to NJ Transit). I still think the ‘Boro is overpriced compared to what R/E was selling for in the not-too-distant past.
Thanks to everyone who replied to my post. My gut feeling was that the disclosure was unethical and further, that the alleged offer is bullshit. I guess only time will tell …
#51 pesche22
I send an email to your aol account with the contact of the chap who did a gas conversion in my previous place. Not sure if the aol filtered the email to junk.
“Do you believe the official story of 9/11?”
No, I do not.
But, this does not mean I am one of those hippie
conspiracy theorists either…
SAS
BC Bob, UnRealtor, and bubblewatcher,
Magazine article linked in post 103 is interesting, and author chooses the correct countries – United Kingdom and Australia – to compare with our housing market. UK and Australia have similar economies and cultures, feature similar housing market metrics such as economic growth profiles and homeownership rates, and have home price cycles that are 1-2 years ahead of ours. Canada is also comparable but is correctly excluded because its cycle is 2 years behind ours.
But it is not fair to celebrate an article written in June 2005 without checking to see what has happened since then. I checked the same UK and Australia home prices sources cited in the article, and here is where home prices have recently moved in those countries.
http://news.bbc.co.uk/2/hi/business/6131416.stm
http://www.abs.gov.au/AUSSTATS/abs@.nsf/mf/6416.0?OpenDocument
And the evidence shows that a similar rebound is occurring right here, right now.
http://www.hobokenx.com/html/modules/newbb/viewtopic.php?topic_id=3990&viewmode=flat&order=ASC&start=380
SAS,
Glad to hear it!
Jaywalk
“Do you believe the official story of 9/11?”
There’s only ONE story of 9-11, which we all know by now. Seek help if you believe the kook conspiracy theories, and also look into how the Moon landings were faked:
http://www.ufos-aliens.co.uk/cosmicapollo.html
what is that one story?
SAS
who wants to talk lowballs? anyone make any?
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