Lowball! December 2006

Welcome to another edition of Lowball!

Lowball! takes a look at home sales from a different perspective. For those new to Lowball!, a lowball offer is when a buyer offers a significantly lower bid than asking in hopes that the seller accepts the offer. We take a list of home sales from the past month and pick out the sales that have the highest percentage difference between original list price and selling price.

The purpose of Lowball! is to show buyers that the market has changed and buyers now have considerably more leverage than sellers. Just a short time ago, Lowball! offers would have been laughed at and discarded, however, not any more. The fact that so many under-asking offers are being accepted is clear proof that the market is changing.

The first table contains Lowball sales of 25% or greater off the Original List Price.

MLS Town OLP LP SP % off OLP $ off OLP
2307965 Saddle River Boro $1,999,999 $1,799,000 $800,000 60.0% $1,199,999
2283696 Allamuchy Twp. $439,900 $380,000 $210,000 52.3% $229,900
2288787 Phillipsburg Town $105,000 $65,000 $52,000 50.5% $53,000
2235610 Newark City $249,777 $174,777 $130,000 48.0% $119,777
2255200 Delaware Twp $1,125,000 $699,000 $600,000 46.7% $525,000
2324021 Middlesex Boro $359,000 $309,900 $200,000 44.3% $159,000
2246907 Alexandria Twp $1,125,000 $850,000 $695,000 38.2% $430,000
2256953 Mountainside Boro $675,000 $575,000 $425,000 37.0% $250,000
2292034 Phillipsburg Town $110,000 $85,000 $70,000 36.4% $40,000
2302885 Plainfield City $499,900 $384,900 $320,000 36.0% $179,900
2307626 Elizabeth City $399,900 $329,000 $257,500 35.6% $142,400
2289615 Demarest Boro $1,396,500 $999,900 $950,000 32.0% $446,500
2265095 Holland Twp $489,850 $409,900 $340,000 30.6% $149,850
2341512 Roselle Boro $179,000 $179,000 $125,000 30.2% $54,000
2318592 West Paterson Boro $429,000 $379,000 $300,000 30.1% $129,000
2282170 Washington Twp $324,000 $250,000 $230,000 29.0% $94,000
2285964 Plainfield City $224,900 $179,900 $162,000 28.0% $62,900
2278414 Hillsborough Twp $850,000 $649,000 $615,000 27.6% $235,000
2302233 Parsippany-Troy Hills $399,900 $309,000 $290,000 27.5% $109,900
2325135 Plainfield City $110,000 $110,000 $80,000 27.3% $30,000
2289264 Morris Twp $618,000 $499,000 $450,000 27.2% $168,000
2307086 Oxford Twp $279,900 $249,900 $205,000 26.8% $74,900
2291575 Franklin Twp $360,000 $299,900 $265,000 26.4% $95,000
2265649 West Milford Twp $379,900 $292,250 $280,000 26.3% $99,900
2252471 Midland Park Boro $750,000 $580,900 $553,000 26.3% $197,000
2290851 Parsippany-Troy Hills $541,000 $399,000 $399,000 26.2% $142,000
2312727 Hampton Boro $249,900 $220,000 $185,000 26.0% $64,900
2259132 Glen Rock Boro $559,900 $449,000 $415,000 25.9% $144,900
2258204 Wanaque Boro $249,000 $215,000 $185,000 25.7% $64,000
2258696 North Plainfield Boro $359,900 $293,900 $267,500 25.7% $92,400
2307803 Scotch Plains Twp $1,275,000 $1,150,000 $950,000 25.5% $325,000
2304857 Kenilworth Boro $435,000 $349,900 $325,000 25.3% $110,000
2268887 Hoboken City $879,900 $659,900 $659,000 25.1% $220,900
2322193 Westfield Twp $799,000 $629,000 $599,500 25.0% $199,500

The second table contains Lowball sales of greater than $250,000 off of the Original List Price.

MLS Town OLP LP SP % off OLP $ off OLP
2307965 Saddle River Boro $1,999,999 $1,799,000 $800,000 60.0% $1,199,999
2231774 Mendham Twp $3,950,000 $3,750,000 $3,400,000 13.9% $550,000
2255200 Delaware Twp $1,125,000 $699,000 $600,000 46.7% $525,000
2315375 Harding Twp $3,975,000 $3,975,000 $3,500,000 11.9% $475,000
2289615 Demarest Boro $1,396,500 $999,900 $950,000 32.0% $446,500
2274563 Franklin Lakes Boro $2,050,000 $1,795,000 $1,610,000 21.5% $440,000
2246907 Alexandria Twp $1,125,000 $850,000 $695,000 38.2% $430,000
2233988 Summit City $1,850,000 $1,600,000 $1,450,000 21.6% $400,000
2263229 Montgomery Twp $1,895,000 $1,695,000 $1,500,000 20.8% $395,000
2297692 North Bergen Twp $1,450,000 $1,285,000 $1,100,000 24.1% $350,000
2295882 Madison Boro $2,175,000 $1,899,000 $1,825,000 16.1% $350,000
2307803 Scotch Plains Twp $1,275,000 $1,150,000 $950,000 25.5% $325,000
2270088 Wayne Twp $1,520,000 $1,299,000 $1,200,000 21.1% $320,000
2268625 Harding Twp $1,289,000 $1,095,000 $975,000 24.4% $314,000
2271457 Nutley Twp $1,400,000 $1,400,000 $1,100,000 21.4% $300,000
2234317 Denville Twp $1,895,000 $1,895,000 $1,600,000 15.6% $295,000
2292948 Bernardsville Boro $3,200,000 $2,950,000 $2,925,000 8.6% $275,000
2269094 Green Brook Twp $1,559,000 $1,399,000 $1,285,000 17.6% $274,000
2276163 Raritan Twp $1,100,000 $849,990 $830,000 24.5% $270,000
2287617 Bernardsville Boro $1,595,000 $1,495,000 $1,325,000 16.9% $270,000
2278859 Mahwah Twp $1,249,938 $999,900 $985,000 21.2% $264,938
2256953 Mountainside Boro $675,000 $575,000 $425,000 37.0% $250,000
2333015 Summit City $2,500,000 $2,500,000 $2,250,000 10.0% $250,000
2323644 Watchung Boro $2,950,000 $2,950,000 $2,700,000 8.5% $250,000

Additional sales data can be found here: Sales-Dec06.xls (In Excel Format)

Caveat Emptor!
jb

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93 Responses to Lowball! December 2006

  1. James Bednar says:

    That Saddle River sale may have been a mis-key (800000 instead of 1800000).

    jb

  2. Source: http://today.reuters.com/news/articleinvesting.aspx?type=bondsNews&storyID=2006-12-26T204359Z_01_N26391792_RTRIDST_0_USA-FED-MORTGAGES.XML

    ” As home prices have stalled and begun to fall, late payments and foreclosures increased in the third quarter, with the subprime adjustable rate mortgage category producing the most pronounced increase in delinquency rates, according to the Mortgage Bankers Association.

    About 7 percent of all U.S. mortgages were subprime adjustable rate loans, while the delinquency rate on those loans rose to 12.56 percent in the third quarter from 11.70 percent in the second quarter. The overall delinquency rate rose to 4.67 percent, from 4.39 percent the prior period.

    The revised pamphlet also warns consumers that falling home prices may make it impossible to refinance their loans or pay off the mortgage with proceeds from the sale of the property. Many recent buyers have escaped sharply higher ARM payments by refinancing with fixed-rate mortgages.

    “If housing prices fall, your home may not be worth as much as you owe on the mortgage. Also you may find it difficult to refinance your loan to get a lower monthly payment or rate,” it reads.”

  3. James Bednar says:

    The data geeks here will have more fun slicing and dicing the XLS..

    http://njrereport.com/files/Sales-Dec06.xls

    jb

  4. What bubble? says:

    grim, or anyone else:

    can someone send me a link for the NUtley house, MLS # 2271457…even if it’s just a picture.

    thanks.

  5. James Bednar says:

    From the York Dispatch:

    Housing slump hits home

    When Tim Schieber bought a luxury town home a year ago without first selling his house, he didn’t think it would be hard to find a buyer for the Bucks County stone farmhouse where he and his wife raised five children over 21 years.
    But it would take 15 months, a $190,000 price cut, $16,000 worth of remodeling and a new real estate agent before the Schiebers were able to sell their 3,600-square-foot home near Doylestown.

    “The days when you put a house on the market and it sells (right away) — those days are gone,” said the 51-year-old business owner. “We just sat back and it got really tough.”

    Brand new market: After years of gains, the Pennsylvania real estate market decelerated in earnest this year as buyers balked at paying ballooning home prices and speculators left the market.

    A growing economy, low mortgage rates and new types of loans had fueled a decade-long housing boom, but declining affordability has put a dent in the market, especially in eastern Pennsylvania.

    “There’s no more flipping,” said Austin Jaffe, chairman of the insurance and real estate department at Penn State University who analyzes housing data for the Pennsylvania Association of Realtors. “It’s not the same psychology that you build a house and by the time you’re done with it, it’s time to flip it and do your next deal.”

    While there are signs the market may be stabilizing, analysts say it’s still too early to say whether a bottom has been reached.

    Still, it took some creative marketing to get a sale for the Schiebers. The realtor put the house on a historical homes tour. It sold for $650,000, far below the family’s original $840,000 asking price.

  6. What bubble? says:

    thanks JB…

  7. UnRealtor says:

    Love the spreadsheet JB.

    Two whiny column requests, if readily available:

    – Address
    – Closing date

  8. JerseyCitySidelines says:

    what a haircut!

  9. Take at least 25% off 2005 peak prices says:

    PAIN!!!!!!!!!!

    SPIN IT!

    Take at least 25% off 2005 peak prices
    mAY WANT TO CHANGE THIS TO 50%.

    Worried yet grubbers?

    hehehehehehe

  10. syncmaster says:

    Addresses would be great. Alternatively, appraised values (the value prop taxes are based on) would be good too.

  11. syncmaster says:

    50%? Dude, what are you nuts?

  12. Poser says:

    CNBC just featured an economist who’s predictions for 2006 a year ago were the most accurate of any economist. He was asked his predictions for 2007 due to his track record. Not surprisingly his first and major point was that housing is going to be a major depressant for the economy first half of 2007. His analysis as to the reasons was easy to understand for those of us folks that are simpletons.
    I’ll see if I can find the link on CNBC.com

  13. x-underwriter says:

    This data set shows an average % off OLP to be 6.9% and average $ off OLP to be $36,758.
    Things are coming down but not exactly crashing.

  14. Take at least 25% off 2005 peak prices says:

    who has been predicting crashing.

    Is 25-30% off of peak 2005 prices considered crashing?
    I call it inevitable.

    BOOOOOOOOOOOOOYAAAAAAAAAAAA

    Bob

  15. Take at least 25% off 2005 peak prices says:

    Spring 2007 housing massacre…watch it and retain for future.

    Some newly minted bagholders.

  16. James Bednar says:

    Closing Date, Days on Market, and Total Assessment have been added to the spreadsheet.

    jb

  17. bergenbubbleburst says:

    x-underwriter: Patience grasshopper, this is a process, and the process has just started, the crash is approaching, can you hear the roar?

    I have seen it before, and I am seeing it again, only this time it will be worse, so much worse.

  18. James Bednar says:

    x-underwriter,

    What values for those measures would indicate a crashing market?

    jb

  19. FirstTime BuyerNotBuying says:

    Hay syncmaster
    Why does 50% seem nuts?

    Yeah within 5 years house doubles(triples) in price and 50 percent is nuts.

  20. syncmaster says:

    Closing Date, Days on Market, and Total Assessment have been added to the spreadsheet.

    JB, you iz da man!

  21. Take at least 25% off 2005 peak prices says:

    For the record do not believe 50% drops will occur for Houses; Condoshacks are another thing.
    25-30% for houses would make’em fair.

    GRIND!!!!!!!!

    Worry!

  22. James Bednar says:

    A handful of losses in these sales..

    MLS# 2324051 – Mendham Twp.
    Purchased 11/16/2004 $1,399,000
    Sold 12/18/2006 $1,292,000

  23. Take at least 25% off 2005 peak prices says:

    50% off of 2005 peak prices that is. 50% off of some delusional sellers prices is happening.

    Take at least 25% off 2005 peak prices

    worried yet?

  24. syncmaster says:

    Wow. The assessed values are very illuminating. There’s a unit that sold for 335… but that same model (I recognize the assessed value) would have gone for around 400 in 2005.

  25. x-underwriter says:

    JB,
    I have no idea what would be considered crashing on a one month basis. Believe me, I’m just as bearish as you or the next guy here. You are posting above the 50 sales that represent the top of the % off OLP. I just think that, at a quick glance, the posting gives the reader the impression that things are down like 20% when there are quite a few transactions in the data that sold much closer to OLP. 5% off list price, in my opinion, would indicate a normal market in any other region (excluding the last few years)

  26. James Bednar says:

    The Demarest property (2289615) was a foreclosure sale (Wells Fargo).

    jb

  27. James Bednar says:

    x-underwriter,

    The goal here is to illustrate the fact that list prices are marketing tools, and sometimes bear no resemblance to the market value of a property. Because most people don’t have access to sales data, they typically use asking prices to gauge the market, a flawed approach. Another goal is to illustrate the variablility between asking and sales prices. Many folks will tend to look at an asking price, and assume a property sold for asking when it goes off the market. A flawed assumption as well.

    Don’t forget, the title of this exercise is “Lowball”.

    jb

  28. James Bednar says:

    A number of real estate professionals have made the comment that these properties were simply overpriced.

    The fact that they sold for significantly under OLP doesn’t signify market weakness at all, only that there was a error in pricing.

    jb

  29. x-underwriter says:

    I hear ‘ya JB and I think you’re doing a great service to anyone out there wondering what to do with nowhere to turn except salespeople.

  30. 2008 Buyer says:

    A number of real estate professionals have made the comment that these properties were simply overpriced.

    That’s funny… isn’t it the job of the listing agent to advise the seller of a REALISTIC selling price

  31. homebuyer says:

    I would love some help from a realtor that could provide a link to pictures/addresses for:

    2322193 westfield
    2259132 Glen Rock
    2313561 Glen Rock
    2283830 Millburn
    2281275 Millburn

    Additionally I want to know the SP for the Bodwell Terrace house that was listed in MLS a few months bank. It final listing was $479.

    Thanks in Advance for anyone that could help me out!

  32. James Bednar says:

    If you look at the spreadsheet data by DOM (Sort by DOM descending), you’ll quickly realize that homes that were priced properly (as identified by selling prices near asking prices) generally sold quickly.

    Homes that were significantly overpriced (as shown by a high differential between OLP and sold prices) did little else but stagnate on the market.

    jb

  33. Zac says:

    The Plainfield house in the first graph was bought by my good buddy. The OLP really is wrong – this house was re-listed with another realtor. Same street as Jim McGreevy – their nieghbors. WAY TO GO MAN. Thanks Grim and the bloggers. Without this blog, it would not have happened.
    BooooooooooooooYaaaaa.

  34. Zac says:

    Oh, may I add…

    BLEED ‘EM DRY.

  35. James Bednar says:

    Homes that were on the market greater than 60 days sold for 10.9% off OLP.

    30 to 60 days, 5.2% off OLP.

    Less than 30 days, 1.6% off OLP.

    jb

  36. Mark says:

    Take a look at this – new home sales up in November, and revised upward for August and September.

    http://news.yahoo.com/s/nm/20061227/bs_nm/usa_economy_dc

    30=60 days, 5.2% off OLP; less than 30 days, 1.6% off OLP. Looks like a number of homes are selling for 95% of OLP or greater.

  37. ck986 says:

    “Homes that were on the market greater than 60 days sold for 10.9% off OLP.

    30 to 60 days, 5.2% off OLP.

    Less than 30 days, 1.6% off OLP.”

    This is good info!! So above 30 days shoot for at least 10% off, above 60 days 15-20% off.

  38. James Bednar says:

    The one thing you want to keep in the back of your mind when looking at this data is that these are the properties that sold, not the ones that didn’t.

    jb

  39. Seneca says:

    Wow! I am speechless. #2316101 in Westfield is the home right next door to one of my best friends who bought in 2002. You do the math:

    #1
    Year of transaction: 2002
    Lot size: 53×143
    Taxes: 8,948
    Sale Price: 670,000

    #2
    Year of transaction: 2006
    Lot size: 53×142
    Taxes: 8,688
    Sale Price: 615,000

    I am floored. And the recent sale appears to be in much better shape than my friends house was in when they bought it in ’02. Wow.

  40. syncmaster says:

    The one thing you want to keep in the back of your mind when looking at this data is that these are the properties that sold, not the ones that didn’t.

    Back of my mind? Looking at the data, that thought comes right to the front. If a condo goes for 335, now I know why another condo (same model, same complex, same assessed value) listed near 390 is still on the market. I happen to know another unit of the same model went for 345 a month ago.

  41. metroplexual says:

    Grim or whoever,

    can you post the URL to lookup houses on the mls using the listing # provided by Grimmy. I never really paid attention but I saw something I would like to look up. Thanks!

  42. BC Bob says:

    Seneca,

    Almost 10% off 2002 prices in Westfield?? Are you sure?? If yes, I agree. WOW!!!

  43. Seneca says:

    BC Bob,

    I am not sh*tting you. I will email James the details to get him to verify for the blog, I don’t want to reveal names/addresses.

  44. James Bednar says:

    Metro,

    Unfortunately, that URL doesn’t work anymore..

    jb

  45. rhymingrealtor says:

    Agents are supposed to be the expert in pricing, I agree. If I determined the price without the seller having to agree that would work. The last listing ( withdrawn) that I had with a seller who knew better than me was listed at $499,000 I wanted it priced at 459,000 I got 2 offers one for $450,000 one for 455,000, I tried to explain to the seller it was not worth what he was asking, but he chose to ignore my advice and turn down flat both of those offers. He thinks he will sell it next year or the next year after that, for more than $499,000 but of course he’ll use another realtor
    after all I could’nt sell it!
    These withdrawns should really tip the apple cart when they come back on.

    KL

  46. James Bednar says:

    Thanks for the insight KL.

    jb

  47. metroplexual says:

    OK,

    can you tell me the address of the Allamuchy lowball? I am intrigued, and may be able to give you a visual of some crazy real estate.

  48. James Bednar says:

    207 Johnsonburg Road.

    Owners highly motivated. Present ALL offers!

    jb

  49. AMS In NJ says:

    Post 34 from Homebuyer:

    If you want pictures, you’ll need to email me for complete listing info. As it stands, here’s the listing/selling prices and addresses of what you asked for. First price is list; second sell.

    2259132 91 E GRAMERCY PL 449000 1 415000

    2313561 47 FAIRVIEW AVE 545000 1 510000

    228383 1612 WYOMING 33 Cypress Street 549000 2 508000

    2281275 17 Mt. Ararat Road 575000 1 563000

    2322193 550 Fairmont Ave. 629000 1 599500

    If you want pics, send me a private message; with luck I’ll be able to extract it.

    A

  50. AMS In NJ says:

    There’s nothing funny about it. The agent SHOULD set the price; not the homeowner. The trend has been to be a “partner” w/the H/O to determine a price, but it doesn’t work.

    Simply overpriced…

    What an oxymoron. KL I withdrew 3, THREE, 3 listings this year due to the seller’s inability to comprehend pricing and market rationale. The wisest move sometimes is just to walk. Let another agent/broker bear the investment in time & marketing costs to no good end.

  51. It's Crashing says:

    Owners highly motivated. Present ALL offers!

    This line is all marketing hype. Yes just present an offer and listen to the entitlement speech.

  52. It's Crashing says:

    These withdrawns should really tip the apple cart when they come back on.

    KL

    It’s funny how you see a house pulled and the sign leans against the house. The spring magic is not coming back.

  53. James Bednar says:

    Existing Home Sales due out at 10:00am tomorrow morning..

    jb

  54. It's Crashing says:

    Seneca Says:
    December 27th, 2006 at 5:23 pm
    Wow! I am speechless. #2316101 in Westfield is the home right next door to one of my best friends who bought in 2002. You do the math:

    Agreed this deserves a big wow…

    Now we are getting somewhere.

  55. James Bednar says:

    This line is all marketing hype. Yes just present an offer and listen to the entitlement speech.

    Typically, yes. However in that specific case, the seller did accept an offer that was just about half of the original list price.

    jb

  56. James Bednar says:

    I will email James the details to get him to verify for the blog, I don’t want to reveal names/addresses.

    Given that the homes are next door to each other and have similar specs, they are a close enough comparable for this exercise. Anything more detailed would need an actual appraisal. Aside from the styles differing, the homes are quite similar.

    jb

  57. njrebear says:

    article on bloomberg ties dismal holiday sales (economy) to housing downturn.

    http://www.bloomberg.com/apps/news?pid=20601087&sid=aCbMp9RTQDRs&refer=home

    ““With the collapse in home sales, the consumer doesn’t feel so powerful,” said Howard Davidowitz, chairman of New York-based retail-consulting firm Davidowitz & Associates. “A lot of earnings are going to miss expectations.” “

  58. metroplexual says:

    JB,

    207 JOHNSONBURG RD
    Sale Date: 10/28/99
    Book: 01655Page: 00087
    Price: 155000 Acreage: 2.240

    How many bedrooms NJACTB.org does not list.
    OLP LP P % off OLP
    Allamuchy, $439,900 $380,000 $210,000 52.3%

    I think the prices are going to implode from the outside in. My brother traded up in Madison from a 2 bed to a dentist office on a corner for only around 100K more. 1600 sq ft to 3000 sq ft. If anyone does not think the correction is underway they are delusional. Furthermore, this is one very fast correction which says to me bad times are ahead. CYA.

  59. hon says:

    where can i look up the mls listings? realtor.com does not display sold homes.

  60. metroplexual says:

    Thanks for the info Jim!

  61. housingcrash says:

    love,love,love,this blog!!!!! Can someone tell me how to find info on a house that was on this lowball list. Im real curious about the house in scotch plains. What web sight do you look up this info if you have an mls number.

  62. njrebear says:

    http://online.wsj.com/public/page/8_0006.html?bcpid=86195573&bclid=86212185&bctid=379163509

    1] Cash is gold!
    2] inverted curve is a leading indicator (12 month) for recession.
    3] mild recession in late 2007.

  63. Rich In NNJ says:

    You must be a paying member of the MLS in order to see Sold data.

    Rich

  64. homebuyer says:

    RE: Post 54

    Sorry for the newbie question but I want to PM AMS in NJ. How can I do this?

  65. Mark says:

    jb,

    RE data has always been property that sold, even during ‘peak’ market.

  66. njrebear says:

    New Yorkers given rabies warning

    http://news.bbc.co.uk/2/hi/americas/6213289.stm

    Health officials in New York are warning residents to stay away from stray animals over the holiday period.

    The advice follows a large increase in the reported number of rabies cases, including seven in December alone.

  67. Rich In NNJ says:

    Mark,

    Correct.

    But you are not the only looking at this data.

    Rich

  68. James Bednar says:

    homebuyer,

    You can email me at jamesbednar at gmail.com and I’ll forward that information on.

    jb

  69. Richard says:

    snore. and on a more positive note, the DOW is up almost 17% YTD. quite unbelievable if you hang around bear blogs all day.

  70. Richard says:

    >>I am floored. And the recent sale appears to be in much better shape than my friends house was in when they bought it in ‘02. Wow.

    be very careful with that assessment. unless you’re in the house you can’t accurately judge the differences in the pricing. within a 2 block radius of my house in westfield you pretty much have all the same types of houses , lot sizes and bedrooms but the prices can vary by $150k due to # and upgrades of kitchens/baths, finished basement, etc.

  71. njrebear says:

    “snore. and on a more positive note, the DOW is up almost 17% YTD.”

    Exactly. How are you doing with 2006 RE investments?? LOL

  72. Richard says:

    >>Exactly. How are you doing with 2006 RE investments?? LOL

    pretty good actually. i have a couple of RE investment trusts and have been dabbling in some commercial RE. on the residential side the only thing i’ve done is refinanced one property into a lower payment plan and got a new renter who’s paying 15% more than the last one. i’m not interested in expanding my RE portfolio at this time.

  73. njrebear says:

    “pretty good actually”
    2006 property is doing pretty good as in 17% return on capital?

    ” i’m not interested in expanding my RE portfolio at this time. ”
    Why is that so? I thought you were of the opinion that RE has hit bottom… or have you changed your opinion yet again?

  74. Rich In NNJ says:

    Richard,

    Big change in perception…
    Richard Says:
    January 23rd, 2006 at 10:28 pm
    everyone, inventory is building up rapidly. there are decent houses on the market at still high but not outrageous asking prices just sitting. this market is coming to a crawl. i expect this week’s home data to show further weakening and this will only continue. as inventory continues to build next stop is lowered prices. sellers haven’t seen a more normalized market in at least 5 years so give it some time to let the reality sink in. if you’re in the market to buy a house, wait until 2007. i’d stake my down payment prices and selection will be better than 2006.

    Rich

  75. BC Bob says:

    “the DOW is up almost 17% YTD. quite unbelievable if you hang around bear blogs all day.”

    Not really. We have been talking about the decline in the dollar for the past year. Multi-nationals are the winners. Not only not unbelievable but predictable. Also, you forgot to mention that gold is up over 20% and will finish 2006 with it’s 6th straight yoy gain. By the way, I won’t even mention what 20% in cash equates to in futures. Don’t want to make your head spin!!

  76. Richard says:

    big change rich? hardly. prices have definitely come down a bit from peak. the market appears to be bottoming so the ‘2007’ i predicted is coming in a bit early + rates have stayed low which has surprised me. i would have no problem suggesting someone buy now or if you want to wait another couple of months by all means.

  77. Richard says:

    >>Why is that so? I thought you were of the opinion that RE has hit bottom… or have you changed your opinion yet again?

    njbear, it’s called diversification. i don’t need any more RE in my portfolio. i’m already a bit overweight.

  78. Rich In NNJ says:

    Richard,

    From your comments in the past you were very bearish on the market.
    Richard Says:
    June 25th, 2006 at 10:00 am
    according to DB Global Markets Research $300 billion in ARM resets are happening this year with $1 trillion coming next year. i believe the 2 biggest impacts to the slowing market are these resets combined with rising interests rates putting those people already stretched in a no win situation.
    next year we’ll have the same recipe but more of the same ingredients with 3.3x the ARM resets and rates probably at least 75-100bps higher than today. next year is going to be the start of a bloodbath IMO. if you can wait to buy i’d highly recommend waiting until the spring market and saving up for more downpayment to shield you more from the rising rates.

    Heck, you were even agreeing with Booyaa Bob back then.

    But now you’ve been saying buy now. You went from renting to not only buying a home but additional real estate to add to your portfolio?
    What market fundamentals have changed for you?

    Richard Says:
    June 29th, 2006 at 6:32 pm
    “Apparently the chorus of voices predicting this collapse and the attention they received from the media, have played a role in bringing the market to it’s current state……as always perception becomes reality!
    um, really? you think it could more to do with something actually tangible like affordability? idiots.
    i>

    Rich

  79. James Bednar says:

    Using this site to establish any kind of relationship between a seller/buyer and an agent/broker is expressly prohibited.

    jb

  80. Rich In NNJ says:

    Someone else is going to have to “turn it off”?

  81. James Bednar says:

    Fixed.

    jb

  82. UnRealtor says:

    MLS 2281275 17 Mt. Ararat Road

    I’m familiar with this property.

    Here’s the full price history:

    Jan 21, 2006 – $759,000 (MLS 2237332)

    Mar 24, 2006 – $698,999

    May 10, 2006 – $698,998 (dropped price $1)

    May 22, 2006 – WITHDRAWN

    May 23, 2006 – $639,000 (MLS 2281275)

    Jun 13, 2006 – $625,000

    Jul 07, 2006 – $595,000

    Sep 14, 2006 – $575,000

    Sep 19, 2006 – Attorney Review

    Sep 26, 2006 – Under Contract

    Dec 12, 2006 – Closed @ $563,000

    This one illustrates two things: Greedy Grubbers will pay dearly for their greed, and flipping properties is a dead industry.

    This seller paid $525K for the property in Sept 2005 (MLS 2087215), and then gutted the house, put in a new kitchen, etc, carried the property for a year, and sold at a loss.

    It sold for over $200,000 less than original ask price, on a street where houses were selling for $350K only 4 years ago.

    Thankfully this insanity has come to an end.

  83. AMS in NJ says:

    Please forgive the unintentional transgression. The email was posted in response to the poster, not as a solicitation. However, in the past I had seen another realtor post her email address, leading to my confusion.

  84. James Bednar says:

    No problem at all, I’m just trying to keep everything under control. I’ve had issues in the past with agents and mortgage brokers spamming.

    I typically ask to be the intermediary in those types of situations, which is why I posted the following above:

    homebuyer,

    You can email me at jamesbednar at gmail.com and I’ll forward that information on.

  85. chicagofinance says:

    If you wish to insult grim you do not need an intermediary in those types of situations. You may do so directly in the threads.

  86. R Patrick says:

    I’m going to sound like Lerah but so Fort Lee is still immune? Or this shows only the SFH ( all 200 od them ) and not the 5000-10000 condo and co op units in town?

    I’m a single guy don’t need a house yet, why pay 6K in taxes for a whole bunch of rooms I don’t need yet. But I would like to upgrade from this studio

  87. TB says:

    This is a great site! Keep up the good work!

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