From the AP:
Experts: NJ job growth slow; home prices correcting, not crashing
New Jersey is likely to see job growth of only 0.6 percent this year, down 50 percent from last year, when it already trailed far behind the national average, according to the Rutgers Economic Advisory Service’s semiannual forecast.
The growth rate will average 0.9 percent over the next decade, Nancy Mantell, director of the advisory service, said Wednesday at a university conference for economists and other number-crunchers.
Real estate expert Jeffrey Otteau told conference attendees that the widely forecast crash following the recent housing market bubble might not happen.
“It’s beginning to look like this will be a correction and not a crash,” said Otteau, president of the Otteau Appraisal Group of East Brunswick.
…
Otteau noted that housing prices in the Garden State have declined significantly, but reports about median home sale prices continuing to rise have confused the public.“Median prices end up comparing this year’s newer, larger, more expensive houses to last year’s older, smaller, less expensive houses,” he said.
Housing prices normally rise strongly for several years, then flatten out for a year or two to allow consumers’ incomes to rise enough to make homes affordable again, Otteau said.
That pause didn’t occur in 2001 because the Federal Reserve started slashing interest rates after the Sept. 11 terrorist attacks, he said. New Jersey home prices accelerated 87 percent from 2001 through 2005 – almost five times as much as incomes.
“In essence, we reached 2010 prices by 2005,” he said.
That steep increase, along with rising mortgage and energy costs, the nation’s highest property taxes and the loss of high-income professional jobs, priced first-time home buyers out of the market and brought it to a screeching halt, Otteau said.
By last July, there wasn’t a single New Jersey county where someone earning the median income could qualify for a median-price house with a 10 percent down payment.
But prices dropped 10 percent on average in the second half of 2006 and should drop another 3 percent this year, Otteau said. That should make homes in seven of the state’s less-developed counties affordable to median-income buyers, and in more counties for families with two incomes.
Buyers can now expect to get a deal for slightly less than the asking price, instead of more, as was common two years ago, he said.
I’m still a bit surprised to hear Otteau say that prices fell 10% in the second half of 2006. It’s tough to point to a single easy-to-use statistic to show the decline. I do agree about median and average prices not being useful indicators in this regard.
jb
from njbiz.com
New Jersey Ranked Among Worst on Taxes by CFOs
New Jersey placed second, behind California, in a survey on states with the worst tax climate. The survey, called the CFO State Tax Survey and produced by Boston-based CFO Publishing, asked corporate tax officials for impressions of their states’ handling of tax-related issues, including audit fairness and the appeals processes. Of the 5,500 tax directors nationwide who received the survey, nearly 300 responded. This is the fifth state tax survey put out by CFO since 1996. According to CFO, “Tax directors rated New Jersey as having the most negative influence of any state on businesses’ expansion plans as the state has raised sales taxes and continues to struggle with a fiscal crisis.” New Jersey had been cited as having the worst overall tax environment in 2004, the last year the survey was published. – Yvonne Darling
I believe SG made this comment a few months back, but correct me if I’m wrong.
Basically, the median and average home price in an area might be telling us more about the buyers than the homes being bought.
For example, I might only be able to afford $250,000. I’m going to buy up to my affordability limit, regardless of the home I will get. I’ve already been told my monthly payment, and that’s the number that is guiding my choice.
If a $300,000 home falls to $250,000 and I buy it, does the statistic measure the fall in price, or is it capturing what the average and median buyer is willing to spend?
jb
“Housing prices normally rise strongly for several years, then flatten out for a year or two to allow consumers’ incomes to rise enough to make homes affordable again, Otteau said.”
That’s incorrect:
http://graphics10.nytimes.com/images/2006/08/26/weekinreview/27leon_graph2.large.gif
Years of price increases are followed by years of price decreases.
Yeah right now it looks like a correction regarding pricing. However, we are only in the beginning of this major decline. Remember, this is not the stock market where the negative wealth effect of a collapsing market is more immediate as compared to a housing slowdown. Stock prices are marked to the market. You have instantaneous prices, bids/offers being hit in milliseconds on electronic exchanges, (internet access), monthly/quarterly statements.
Although the inventory/sales data indicate the beginning of this crash, prices will come down very slowly. This can occur for years, maybe 3-5 years, a mutli year period of slowly falling prices. Lower prices are not a leading indicator of a potential build up in inventory. On the contrary, a large build up in inventory, combined with sales falling off a cliff, are a precursor to falling prices. Housing price value changes are not experienced by property owners until they try to turn the property into a liquid asset, either by selling or by refinancing. Remember, nothing is selling and the subprime can’t refinance. Therefore, we have not given this (prices) enough time to unravel. Home owners sell/refinance at different times,consequently there is/will not be a rapid negative wealth effect like a stock market crash. This will be more like Chinese water tortue.
“Real estate expert Jeffrey Otteau told conference attendees that the widely forecast crash following the recent housing market bubble might not happen.”
To Mr. Oteau: You don’t say? “Widely” forecast crash? Where are those links? The only crash forecasts I saw, before it was already in full swing, were in these blogs. Perhaps you meant to use the word “news” instead of “forecast.”
“Housing prices normally rise strongly for several years, then flatten out for a year or two to allow consumers’ incomes to rise enough to make homes affordable again, Otteau said.”
How the hell do wages catch up in a year or two??? What’s this guy on???
We have seen prices go up approx 80-100% from 2001-2005. Wages are going up approx 4-5%, real wages, 1-1.5%???? So if prices flatten out and stay at this level, it will take approx 60 years for “real” wages to catch up.[assuming constant wage growth and the same,low inflation]
BC Bob, a “year or two”, 60 years, not much difference when you live minutes from NY City and they aren’t making any more land.
House prices won’t “crash” per say, but do look for a long and steady decline in RE.
Sellers… you better load up on diapers, because you are going to need them when you start to shit yourself once you realize you can’t sell your house at the price you want.
yours truly,
SAS
Anyboy can see the information on this list, MLS# 2363371 ? Looks like too good to be true.
why can’t NJ goto a one child only policey like China?
Now, that would be a damn good idea.
Or tax breaks on anyone whom decide to become sterile…
SAS
2363371 is a piece of crap for $829K ( approx 1 mil).
Even if you put 20% down which is $165K, your monthly mortgage payment is $4103.79!!!
This doesn’t include property tax, which for some reason has been omitted from the posting. Very convenient of course.
Also the lone picture doesn’t completely load on my PC. Excellent marketing.
# sas Says:
January 17th, 2007 at 8:33 pm
why can’t NJ goto a one child only policey like China?
Now, that would be a damn good idea.
Or tax breaks on anyone whom decide to become sterile…
SAS
How about introduce extra income tax on families with kids: extra let’s say 5%/child state taxes???
Ohh man, why did I have to give them this idea??
njrebear,
Can you find out the location/address and the sales history? Looks like fliper house.
I am just look arround. Plan to buy at 2008.
I went to an open house in Maplewood this weekend and saw a property listed at $469,000 that the owners bought less than two years ago for $532,000, according to tax records. That’s a 12 percent decline and doesn’t account for the “major work” the realtor claimed was done by the owners.
But to be honest, I’ve been watching the market since spring and I don’t see prices falling. I see a lot of stuff just sitting for months at the same asking price.
lily,
JB might be able to help.
subprime news –
http://www.mortgagedaily.com/
Reform legislation for FHA, Fannie Mae and Freddie Mac is forthcoming, according to the country’s mortgage bankers. But pending anti-predatory legislation could hurt the fragile real estate market.
” I’ve been watching the market since spring and I don’t see prices falling. I see a lot of stuff just sitting for months at the same asking price”
sellers can only wait so long. Sooner or later, they have to give because now I think the speculation is out of the market…. for the most part…
SAS
way…way..off topic
but is anyone else out there feeling a little under the weather?
I am sicker than a dog right now…
Thank goodness for tomatoe and garlic soup.
SAS
Homer is back from the Dead. I have been bummin it not really following the market to much, beem busy getting ready for the Twins.
I think Mr Otteau needs to have his head examined. I am not sure where he is comming up with this new theory. Any economist with a clue would see what most salaries people make in NJ. If you take NYC salary vs NJ salary and see the actual salary that a Jerzian makes you will see that most people cannot afford even these “10%” lower prices. Yes NJ is made up of a lot of commuters however most are not flocking here anymore as they have been in the past few years. And the sellers dont understand why can’t I sell my home at this overinflated price? But its such an easy commute to NYC on 2 hours by bus. Foreclosures are up, jobs are
leaving the state, property taxes are up, NJ is no longer that desireable of a state to live in.
And if the market is so great and it won’t drop much more than why are there Realtor commercials on in desperation for people to buy saying its such a great time to buy and sell?? Desperate much.
Ridle me this…riddle me that… watch the real estate market go crash crash crash!!!
http://www.marketwatch.com/news/story/wamu-quarterly-net-rises-23/story.aspx?guid={D9C7F51D-93E8-46F2-A303-EB20113E94F3}&siteid=myyahoo&dist=myyahoo
WaMu Mortgage business loses $122 million in a quarter.
The deterioration of subprime credit conditions knocked $160 million of the quarter’s results, Washington Mutual noted.
Total profits were up 23% but the increase in profits was due to after tax gain of $415 Mil from the sale of WM Advisors, Inc.
It’s like the perfume market…
Sellers think that if they drop the price the ‘product’ is somehow inferior. “The Jones have it on the market for $650K, why shouldn’t my house be on the market for the same price… they are not making any more land”
…and the stink continues.
Wake up sellers, time to clean up!
“NYC rental market ranked top in the nation”
http://tinyurl.com/35wyfo
I found this sentence to be interesting:
“This rent increase will occur despite an uptick in supply, including an expected 50% jump in inventory in Manhattan.”
All I can say is wow. Once NYC has a little bit of a town tick.. look out below.
SAS
Mr Otteau’s is quicker than Reechard when it comes to changing projections.
Jim Rogers, the author of “Hot Commodities” who predicted the start of the raw material rally in 1999, said the recent slide in oil is a “correction” before prices resume their march toward $100 a barrel.
“I’m just not smart enough to know how far down it will go and how long it will stay, but I do know that within the context of the bull market, oil will go over $100,” Rogers said in a Tokyo interview.
http://www.bloomberg.com/apps/news?pid=20601087&sid=aPd76G1VHQek&refer=home
I’m just not smart enough to know how far down it will go and how long it will stay, but I do know that within the context of the bull market, oil will go over $100,’’ Rogers said in a Tokyo interview.
You gotta love predictions like this one…
I can say with 100% confidence, that housing will be double of what is it right now… Just can’t tell excact timeframe…
Hmmm:
“I went to an open house in Maplewood this weekend and saw a property listed at $469,000 that the owners bought less than two years ago for $532,000, according to tax records. That’s a 12 percent decline and doesn’t account for the “major work” the realtor claimed was done by the owners.”
And:
“But to be honest, I’ve been watching the market since spring and I don’t see prices falling.”
Care to reconcile your two statements?
For those who are smarter than me, I’d like to pose the question: Would it work to tax households based on the amount of school-age children they have? Thus, if no children, no school tax. And those with two children would pay less than those with three in school. Somehow this seems fair.
Yes, let’s drive away anyone with kids out of New Jersey. That’ll do wonders for the economy.
BTW has anyone else heard of the new townhomes that will be built right in front of Union townships train station? I drove past it today and saw a sign but the area is so crowded I can’t imagine where they’re planning to build the homes.
#28 Unrealtor – It’s not really a contradiction, is it?
That Maplewood house may sit on the market for months (and judging by the summery photos, it wasn’t as knew a listing as the realtor claimed) without the price coming down.
There may be plenty of houses coming on the market below what the owners paid two years ago, but I just don’t see a lot of homes dropping in price once listed.
I’m often frustrated by the lack of information available. How do I find addresses of homes in the public listings? Currently I’m trolling open house listings and making note of addresses when homes in neighborhoods in which I’m interested appear, but it’s a pretty labor intensive solution.
This past New Years Eve I went to sleep before midnight, didn’t see any reason to stay up.
However, I now find myself contemplating whether or not to stay up to wait for the BOJ rate decision.
jb
I’m often frustrated by the lack of information available. How do I find addresses of homes in the public listings?
Just ask here or email me.
jb
You really ARE a dork :(
at least you are our leader :)
From MarketWatch:
Bank results show signs of credit deterioration
Fourth-quarter results from several banks suggest the benign credit environment of recent years has begun to deteriorate and could restrain future earnings, analysts said on Wednesday.
Still, credit problems are mostly restricted to subprime and other riskier mortgages right now and shouldn’t spread to other areas of the lending industry, the analysts added.
…
“Credit has been tailwind for this industry for several years, but it’s becoming a slight headwind now,” said James Ackor, an analyst who covers IndyMac and other lenders at RBC Capital Markets.
“Credit has been so good for so long — particularly in the mortgage market, which has been supported by an incredibly robust housing market,” Ackor continued. “Credit being cyclical and with a deterioration in pockets of the housing market, it stands to reason that the environment will deteriorate.”
…
Past increases in subprime delinquencies have usually been accompanied by rising unemployment, RBC’s Ackor noted. That hasn’t happened this time, which suggests problems have been caused by deterioration in lending standards, he said.
“This is going to be a sizable speed bump, but it will only be an outright disaster if interest rates rise sharply or unemployment rises sharply,” the analyst concluded.
DorkMaster
I am starting to worry about the economy again, but not in the way that you might think.
Last year I raised the issue of Bernanke being a “hack”, and I went ballistic when he stopped raising at 5.25%
Well he looked prescient for quite awhile as things were settling in quite nicely.
However, it appears that 5.25% didn’t really get the job done, and I think that things are still TOO HOT.
With the last two week retrenchment of oil prices, it is the equivalent of a couple of rate cuts if not more.
I think by mid-year we may be starting down some more rate hikes ESPECIALLY if oil prices continue to move in a stimulative fashion.
I really do think that 2007 might be really hot, and we will have to have the economy beaten down. We have the makings NOT of a soft landing, but of NEVER landing, and then getting a HARD landing in 2008.
Opinions?
For example, I might only be able to afford $250,000. I’m going to buy up to my affordability limit, regardless of the home I will get. I’ve already been told my monthly payment, and that’s the number that is guiding my choice.
I agree.
Also, people have talked a lot about first time buyers getting priced out of the market. This could also push up the median price.
Let’s say 5 houses sell in 2005 for the following prices:
$500k
$400k
$300k
$200k
$100k
The median price is $300k
In 2006, prices drop by 10% across the board, but the first time buyer is priced out. So, that low end house doesn’t sell. Now we only have 4 sales:
$450k
$360k
$270k
$180k
The median price is $315k
The NAR reports that prices are up and recovery is here. In reality, prices and volume are dropping, but the sales mix makes it appear that the price went up.
“This past New Years Eve I went to sleep before midnight, didn’t see any reason to stay up.”
That can only mean one thing: you’re getting old.
I myself often ponder the outcome, had it been the justified .5 in August.
Of course, I don’t sit around and debate myself between 10 and 10:25 pm (I delete all those before hitting [Submit Comment], now that I know everybody just laughs at me).
Anyway, we’re a half too low right now. Whether or not the subsidized gas has been the primary reason, who cares? The numbers are looking better for the big guy, and it’s gonna get stretched a little more, because too much is up for grabs in 2008. This is one thing that can be manhandled and it will be, simply because it can.
I think by mid-year we may be starting down some more rate hikes ESPECIALLY if oil prices continue to move in a stimulative fashion.
Although, falling oil prices could also hold down producer & consumer prices. Lower transportation costs, cheaper plastic, cheaper electricity, lower food prices (due to transportation & petroleum based fertilizers) etc.
Provided that increased resource utilization doesn’t put pressure on prices, the Fed may not feel compelled to raise rates.
WSJ
As Crude Falls,
Don’t Expect
Rates to Follow
January 18, 2007
With crude prices retreating, oil producers will have less wealth to spread around the world. That should mean lower energy prices and lower inflation, but not necessarily a drop in long-term interest rates.
At $52.24 a barrel on the New York Mercantile Exchange, the price of crude oil is 32% below its record of $77.03 in July. The result: A big drop in home-heating costs and prices at the pump and more walking-around money for consumers. It also helps cool inflation, giving the Federal Reserve less impetus to raise short-term interest rates [chicagofinance: I disagree].
Oil-producing countries will have less cash to throw around. They have been running huge trade surpluses. But the surpluses might shrink, meaning fewer dollars flowing into their coffers. Last year they received oil revenue estimated in a recent Federal Reserve Bank of New York paper at about $970 billion. Total revenue, including nonoil exports, came to about $1.5 trillion — almost $1 trillion more than in 2002.
Roughly half that rise went to increased imports, estimate the economists who wrote the paper.
The other half went into foreign financial assets. It is hard to ascertain which ones, but the economists argue that because the U.S. has the biggest borrowing needs, U.S. assets have directly or indirectly been the destination for the bulk of oil producers’ foreign investments.
By lending the U.S. money, the oil producers have helped keep yields on long-term Treasurys and other bonds low. If the drop in oil prices leads to a drop in oil producers’ purchases of U.S. financial assets, rates could head higher.
Less inflation will hold back that pressure. And other countries, like China, might end up with more money to buy U.S. bonds.
BC Bob Says:
January 17th, 2007 at 9:15 pm
Jim Rogers, the author of “Hot Commodities’’ who predicted the start of the raw material rally in 1999, said the recent slide in oil is a “correction’’ before prices resume their march toward $100 a barrel.
Bost: but he’s also investing in airline stocks? Oil going through the roof and then buying a company that is certain to get whacked by it? What am I missing in this calculus?
http://www.famtg.com
Due to current market conditions in the mortgage industry, Funding America has decided to discontinue accepting any new business.
“It’s beginning to look like this will be a correction and not a crash,” said Otteau, president of the Otteau Appraisal Group of East Brunswick.
What’s the difference between a correction and a crash? And if it’s just beginning, how does he know what it’s going to be? Also, as an appraiser, isn’t his job to look in the rear view mirror to judge current values? What qualifies Otteau to make predictions?
So many questions, so little time.
MBA Releases Long Term Economic Forecast
http://www.mortgagebankers.org/NewsandMedia/PressCenter/47628.htm
“There are some downside risks in forecast,” said Duncan. “The housing sector could deteriorate more than projected, with sharper declines in single-family housing starts and home sales, resulting in sustained declining year-over-year home prices. This could lead to a marked slowdown in consumer spending growth and threaten an economic expansion. If so, the Fed could start easing to prevent a recession. However, if core inflation remains elevated or even edges higher, the Fed would likely remain on the sideline, increasing recession risks. We believe the probability for this scenario to be small.”
opinion #1:
why this obsession with the “hard” or “soft”? Just don’t think we are able to wrap our minds around this topic without a better feel for the situation.
njrebear #52, what’s that, the 12th lender to go out of business in the past 3 months?
There was a website that tracked them all, but I can’t find the link…
Nice home page message:
“Due to current market conditions in the mortgage industry, Funding America has decided to discontinue accepting any new business.”
http://www.famtg.com
A $50,000 Promissory Note to Makeup the Difference on a Short Sale
http://iamfacingforeclosure.com/130/50000-promissory-note-to-makeup-the-difference-on-a-short-sale/
“That’s the only way the Larchmont property first position lender will accept a short sale. Just signed it today… My super-persistent agent lady had to really fight for this one. Lets hope the buyers don’t back out.
“
Guys, as someone who is going into attorney review right now, (on the selling side), let me give you my perspective…
Sellers ARE waking up to the fact that they are not going to receive a bid near what they were asking (or the going rate) from last year. You can see that prices are dropping (anywhere from 5-15% off peak) from a year ago. I did see this coming (partly due to the fact of being a lurker here) from the summer.
Having said that, there are people who are BUYING homes in Northern NJ. It is not all doom and gloom as some here firmly believe. The key is pricing your house correctly. Doing that requires going on the MLS, seeing what has sold in your neighborhood recently & having realistic expectations of what asking price will bring in the most bids. Again, having a realtor who knows your market well, helps.
I don’t know how much I’ll post on here, but I just want to say thanks to JB for this site. It has been VERY informative and kept me ‘ahead of the curve’ so to speak when selling my home. thanks
Unrealtor,
Even the big boys are in trouble, Wa Mu and Indy Bank reported severe loss.
Wamu reported 1.06 Bln in profit Vs 865 mln.
The 1.06 bln includes – 415 + 135 mln from asset sale and another 100 mln in ‘ongoing efficiency initiatives’.
As i understand, if we remove these one time charges they end up with 410 mln Vs 865 mln.
home seller, get out of here with that realistic, on the ground observations. this place is for rantings and ravings on the severe housing correction that’s going to happen in 2007, or is it 2008, no i think it was 2009.
cool your jets folks. the economy looks like it’ll continue to do well in 2007 and that bodes ill for any sizable downward move on house prices.
home seller,
good luck.
as for you Richard,
per ‘home seller’ you are down 5-15% on your 2006 purchase :)
I definitely don’t think average or median price was good indicator for house prices. but I was disappointed in OFHEO. They were supposed to give same house HPI but since they only track lesser value homes and also include REFIs they are also not showing drop.
The only real indicator seems to me is DAYS OF SUPPLY. This number will have to come down for normal market.
Home Seller #58, thanks for the story.
But just because transactions occur, doesn’t mean there isn’t a winner and a loser.
Sounds like you’re a winner, who found a loser. :)
There’s an extremely high likelihood that someone who buys at “5-15% off” a 100-year-peak, will become a Certified Bagholder™.
Best of luck to you, and to the new “owner.”
“Yes, let’s drive away anyone with kids out of New Jersey. That’ll do wonders for the economy”
Yes, it will. When you are minutes away from NYC, you don’t need kids to stimulate the economey.
cost/benefit analysis….
SAS
Home Seller,
Congrats, you are selling your home to a less informed peson. In turn, this person is buying your debt.
SAS
I’ll keep this at the top today, since it was posted up late yesterday.
jb
Looking for a link to “Ruling faults lender” in the WSJ.
jb
NJMC predicts 70% increase in jobs for the Meadowlands…
http://www.njmeadowlands.gov/press_advisories/January_2007/economic_agenda.cfm/economicagenda_release_CL%20(2).pdf?&CFID=835821&CFTOKEN=39416032&jsessionid=72309effc4ac$7B$3Dv$
Mish takes a look at the Pennsylvania swaps fiasco that cost the Reading School Disctrict $230,000 (and made millions for Deutsche Bank).
Ponzi Financing On Interest Rate Swaps
While Reading’s taxpayers are liable for the loss, bankers and advisers already have pocketed $1 million in fees for arranging the swap, enough to buy 11 Mercedes-Benz S-550 sedans. This week’s payment to Deutsche Bank would have covered the school district’s monthly utility bill.
“It was all done in a real hurry,” said Keith Stamm, the only member of the board to vote against the deal. “The whole board is so desperate to try to find a way to raise money, they see this floated in front of them as a big-time amount of money and they want to go forward with it.”
It is starting to look more and more like the 80th:
First sales slow down.
Second – inventory build up
3rd – subprime lenders are going belly up
4th prices edge down a bit
5th small bump up in activily correlated with spring time
NJMC predicts 70% increase in jobs for the Meadowlands…
… over the next 15 years.
I’m looking for the report/study and some detail on the basis for those growth projections, or at least an outline of what they are going to do to facilitate that kind of growth. I believe that 70% number was based on a study out of Rutgers circa 2001.
I always raise an eyebrow when I hear percentages thrown around like that without any actual jobs numbers. The Meadowlands commission site states that the area has roughly 80,000 employees, a 70% increase will result in approximately 56,000 new jobs over 15 years (~3,700 per year).
I’ve said it before, but I’ll say it jokingly this time. It would be easy to hit those numbers in half the time, just turn the Meadowlands into AC North.
Also wonder how much of this projection was based on the Xanadu and EnCap, and how many of these jobs are construction jobs to build Xanadu, EnCap, and the new stadium.
jb
Let me just clarify, I’m not skeptical that those figures are achievable (well, maybe just a little). What I am skeptical of is whether or not the state and local governments will allow for the kind of development (new development as well as redevelopment) necessary to facilitate that level of growth.
jb
Weekend’s games will be great!!
Go Pats!!!! GO Saints!!!
Just to add a bit more, and I promise I’m finished on this.
The EnCap golf/residential project is absolutely massive. It’s plan is to redevelop more than 500 acres of the Meadowlands (ex-landfill). The project will create more than 2,000 housing units. (I thought the actual completed number was higher than 4,000 new units, does anyone know if the plan changed?)
jb
I don’t know how many commute but rt 15 south has been empty since Thanksgiving where did everybody go?
Rt.15 naming rights were sold to a philly rap
star.
The small towns within the Meadowlands are really diamonds in the rough. Transportation and very close to NYC, decent school systems, low taxes, etc..better off buying in one of those towns than commuting to NYC from PA or Greenwood Lake. Lyndhurst, Carlstadt, East Rutherford, Wallington, Secaucus…yes they are not Chatham or Upper Saddle River, but they are still good towns to live in
James, last I heard the encap project is moving forward
I’m going to be watching the Wesmont Station redevelopment project in Wood-Ridge closely. I think it’s really the most interesting development project taking place in North Jersey right now. It’s a 740 home mixed use, although primarily residential, development on the train line.
jb
Yes, the site of Curtis-Wright. Is it going to be only Condos and Townhouses mixed with retail, or will there be single family houses as well?
Woodridge is another nice town
also Hasbrook Heights
Chi,
Can’t speak for Jim Rogers. I only posted because it was an interesting observation. I do give him credit for calling the Nasdaq top and the commodity run, back in 1999. By the way, Boone Pickens believes the same regarding oil.
I believe it’s going to be a mix of dense single family, townhomes, and condos (including age-restricted). The Curtis-Wright property is only about 65 acres or so.
jb
Here is the Wesmont site plan:
http://video.mww.com/clients/wesmontstation/landscapingcroppedsmall.jpg
10 year- 4.80%
I’ve been looking at houses (open houses, lockbox, not just internet) since Dec ’05, prices have definitely dropped. I sold my house Mar ’06 and really put on the pressure to find a house before the closing in June, didn’t do anything because prices were dropping weekly. I now rent.
Numerous houses are still being sold at high levels, I just don’t think buyers are informed. I just got recent sales from Aug to date for 1 town and sales of recent homes are all over. Personal taste is one thing, but a crappy 3Br ranch on a main road selling for $50K more than a 5 Br Colonial on a culdesac just doesn’t make sense.
From MarketWatch:
U.S. Dec. housing starts up 4.5% to 1.64 mln
New construction of U.S. houses rose for the second straight month in December, the Commerce Department estimated Thursday. Starts rose 4.5% in December to a seasonally adjusted 1.64 million annualized units, stronger than the 1.57 million pace expected by economists surveyed by MarketWatch. Starts of new single-family homes fell by 4.1% to 1.23 million in December, while starts of large apartment units jumped 42.1% to 412,000. Building permits, a leading indicator of housing construction, rose 5.5% to a seasonally adjusted annual rate of 1.60 million.
From MarketWatch:
CPI rises 0.5% on higher energy costs
Led by higher gasoline, clothing and tobacco prices, U.S. consumer prices rose a seasonally adjusted 0.5% in December, the first increase since August, the Labor Department reported Thursday. Excluding food and energy prices, the core CPI rose 0.2% in December, the biggest increase in three months. The increases in the CPI and the core CPI were exactly as forecast by the median estimate of economists surveyed by MarketWatch. In 2006, the CPI rose 2.5% after a 3.4% gain in 2005. The core CPI rose 2.6% in 2006 after 2.2% in 2005. It was the highest core inflation since 2001’s 2.7%.
U.S. Dec housing starts up 4.5%. Single family starts were however down 4.1%.
From Bloomberg:
U.S. Housing Starts Rose 4.5% in December to 1.642 Million Rate
Construction of single-family homes fell 4.1 percent last month to a 1.23 million rate, today’s report showed. Work on multifamily homes, such as townhouses and apartment buildings, surged 42 percent to an annual rate of 412,000.
The increase in starts was led by a 26 percent jump in the Northeast. Construction in the West rose 12 percent and increased 1.8 percent in the Midwest. Starts dropped 2 percent in the South.
Unseasonable warm weather may have contributed to the strength in starts last month, economist said. Last month was the warmest December since 1957, according to the National Climatic Data Center in Asheville, North Carolina. The government boosts the December figures in order to compare it with other months because it assumes harsher winter weather stalled some projects.
“Given the warm weather in December, the seasonal factor was probably too large and therefore overestimated construction,” Drew Matus, a senior economist at Lehman Brothers Holdings Inc. in New York, said before the report.
The core rate, yoy, is outside the comfort level [1-2%] for the fed. Throw away that notion about lower rates coming to the rescue for housing.
JB, I think this is what you were looking for…
Ruling Faults Lender
In Option ARM Suit
WSJ
A federal district court judge ruled that a Maryland bank must rescind loans made to certain borrowers who took out so-called option adjustable-rate mortgages because it violated the Federal Truth in Lending Act.
The ruling comes at a time of heightened scrutiny of option ARMs and other nontraditional mortgages, which grew in popularity during the housing boom. Option ARMs typically carry a low introductory interest rate and give borrowers multiple payment options.
In recent years, option ARMs have found favor with borrowers looking to buy houses they couldn’t otherwise afford and with homeowners looking to pull out cash without increasing their monthly payments.
Some $208 billion of these loans were originated in the first nine months of 2006, according to Inside Mortgage Finance. That is on top of $280 billion in option ARMs originated in 2005.
Rising short-term interest rates have made option ARMs less attractive. In addition, the growth of these loans has raised concerns that some borrowers don’t fully understand them. For instance, borrowers who elect to make the minimum payment can see their loan balances rise. Federal regulators last year issued guidelines for nontraditional mortgages in response to concerns about risks to borrowers and lenders. Nearly two dozen states have adopted similar guidelines, according to the Conference of State Bank Supervisors.
The case decided this week was filed by Susan and Bryan Andrews, a Wisconsin couple, against Chevy Chase Bank. The couple said they thought the 1.95% introductory rate on their option ARM was fixed for five years.
Two months after obtaining the mortgage, they received a statement showing that their interest rate had jumped to 4.375%. An option ARM often carries a low introductory rate that is used to set the minimum payment on the loan for the first year, even though the actual rate on the loan may be higher.
The ruling, issued Tuesday by Federal District Court Judge Lynn Adelman of the Eastern District of Wisconsin, held that disclosures regarding the rate on the loan were unclear and confusing.
In addition, the disclosure statement included the words “5-year fixed.” That was also confusing to borrowers, the court said, because while payments on the loan were fixed for five years, the interest rate was not.
Borrowers who are covered by the decision will get back any payments made to the bank, including closing costs and attorneys’ fees, says Kevin Demet, the lawyer who filed the case. The ruling applies only to borrowers who received the specific disclosures cited in the case. Because of how the law is written, the decision applies only to borrowers who used an option ARM to refinance the mortgage on their primary residence.
Chevy Chase says it plans to appeal. “This is a very technical and complicated area, and I simply believe the judge came to some legal conclusions that are not correct,” says the company’s general counsel, Thomas McCormick. Chevy Chase hasn’t determined how many borrowers are eligible to have their loans rescinded, he says.
The words “5-year fixed” were used for internal tracking purposes, Mr. McCormick says. In April 2004, before the case was filed, Chevy Chase created special notices to emphasize that the interest rate on these loans is variable, he adds. The company says it made additional changes after the case was filed.
Chevy Chase issued $7 billion in mortgages last year. Option ARMs accounted for “more than half” of mortgage originations in the past few years, the bank says.
Only a few lawsuits have been filed by borrowers who took out option ARMs, but some attorneys expect more.
“Even fairly sophisticated consumers can’t understand what is written in the [loan] documents,” says Daniel Hedges, an attorney in Charleston, W.Va. “This product is so amenable to abuse, you are going to have more and more litigation over it.” Mr. Hedges is representing four borrowers who took out option ARMs, including one from Chevy Case.
Pamela Simmons, an attorney in Soquel, Calif., says mortgage brokers and loan officers have misled some borrowers about the features of their option ARMs. “I get a ton of people who think that their variable-rate option ARM loan is a fixed-rate loan,” she says.
Lenders say they are taking steps to make disclosures clearer. The Mortgage Bankers Association recently set up a task force to create a voluntary disclosure form lenders could use to make it easier for borrowers to understand the pros and cons of various loan products.
>>The core rate, yoy, is outside the comfort level [1-2%] for the fed. Throw away that notion about lower rates coming to the rescue for housing.
you can also throw away any increase. all indications are we’ll be sitting at or slightly down from where rates are today for much of 2007.
“you can also throw away any increase. all indications are we’ll be sitting at or slightly down from where rates are today for much of 2007.”
Ace,
Tune into the Chicago pits. They control the long end, not the fed. What are your indications, contrary to the 10 year chart??
It’s a Good Time To Buy! ????
Underhanded NAR television ad seeks to dup unsuspecting buyers into a declining market in a pathetic attempt to delay the inevitable.
http://www.paperdinero.com/BNN.aspx?id=80
Richard,
The core rate, yoy, is outside the fed’s comfort level. They have repeatedly stated what their comfort level is, just listen. The 10 year rates are breaking to new levels, just listen. All indications???? What/whom are you listening to?? The pundits?? You want to fight the fed and the Chicago pits??? Where’s that bridge??
Mortgage Lender Implode-O-Meter
http://ml-implode.com/
broadband: check out http://www.realtor.org and view all of their propagandads
Jimmy Rogers also had called for stagflation since the late 1980’s, he’ll be right eventually!
Market doesn’t seem too happy about what Bernanke is saying…
jb
From MarketWatch:
Bernanke urges Congress to put budget on sustainable path
Fed chief Ben Bernanke urged Congress to put the federal budget on a long-term sustainable path. “If early and meaningful action is not taken [to lower the budget deficit], the U.S. economy could be seriously weakened, with future generations bearing much of the cost,” Bernanke said in testimony prepared for delivery to the Senate Budget Committee. Bernanke said that recent narrowing of the deficit was simply “the calm before the storm” as spending on entitlement programs will begin to climb quickly during the next decade.
“fiscal crisis”
imperil the economy
Bernanke has been spending too much time around here…
jb
Full text can be found here:
http://www.federalreserve.gov/boarddocs/testimony/2007/20070118/default.htm
lifelongrenter Says:
January 17th, 2007 at 8:51 pm
I went to an open house in Maplewood this weekend and saw a property listed at $469,000 that the owners bought less than two years ago for $532,000, according to tax records. That’s a 12 percent decline and doesn’t account for the “major work” the realtor claimed was done by the owners.
Lifelong renter: I think I saw this house this weekend, too. Was it the the yellow one or they grey colonial kinda right on the street?
98]
implode-o-meter is way behind in his count.
“fiscal crisis”
JB,
The problem is nobody listens.
In conjunction with Ben’s testimony, the US Comptroller has stated that we are on a unsustainable path, this was posted on this site a few times. Is anybody listening???
RE: ponzi entitlements: O.K., which Dem is gonna try to catch that flaming alligator this year? Dodd? Yeah, right.
But it’s fun to watch.
From BusinessWeek Online:
Bad Loans Hit Housing Lenders
And about 44% of Countrywide’s loans are option ARM loans, which are advertised to give consumers more repayment flexibility, but add unpaid interest into the loan’s principal. “These loans have performed well until now, but they haven’t been stress-tested, by design. “We see such testing occurring sometime in ’07,” Plesser said in a research note. “We are concerned about CFC’s credit exposure
44% are option arms….. WOW… Thats how people are buying!!! Is Countrywide next one to go down???
I guess I need to start learning more and more about foreclosure market, and may be, look for a RE agent specializing in foreclosures??
Richard Says:
January 18th, 2007 at 8:59 am
you can also throw away any increase. all indications are we’ll be sitting at or slightly down from where rates are today for much of 2007.
Reechard: I don’t want to take swings at you. You make me feel as if I’m playing rope-a-dope.
BTW – the Bernanke testamony is just a smoke screen. He doesn’t want to discuss rates, so instead he is pontificating on a provocative topic assured of providing the neccessary electricity for the pundits.
I haven’t reviewed the testimony, but I would bet he said essentially NOTHING.
What if the lender that holds your mortgage goes under? Do you keep paying to them until another company buys their assets, both performing and non-performing?
Just wondering.
http://money.cnn.com/magazines/moneymag/moneymag_archive/2007/02/01/8398744/index.htm?postversion=2007011810
“Is your realtor on your side?”
O.K., S. Gandel…are you a lurker here? You forgot a few pointers Clotpoll has kindly tried to lay out for you.
twice shy,
Sorry, you don’t get a free ride. Your mortgage servicer likely won’t miss a beat.
It’s not uncommon for a mortgage to be transferred to both different owners and servicers during it’s lifetime.
jb
112
Smoke Screen:
An obvious, yet comical ploy, often generated by throwing flaming alligators at Senators seeking to redecorate the White House with lots of green paper.
Fortunately, Nancy Pelosi has outlawed smoke screens.
Or was that smoking?
Countrywide is based in CA. That explains all the ARMs
That explains all the ARMs
Keep in mind that countrywide is one of the biggest national lenders. Are you basing your assumption on the location of their HQ? I’m not saying that they don’t hold a significant portion of Ca. ARMs, they probably do, I just want to know if you came to that conclusion based on information other than where they were located…
jb
I mean, their name is “country wide” after all.
:)
jb
From MarketWatch:
Freddie Mac: 30-yr mortgage averages 6.23% vs 6.21%
The benchmark 30-year fixed rate mortgage average rose in the week ending Thursday, to 6.23% from 6.21%, according to Freddie Mac. The mortgage agency said its weekly survey showed the 15-year loan increased to 5.98% from 5.96%. The 1-year Treasury-indexed adjustable rate also rose, to 5.51% from 5.44%, while the 5-year hybrid ARM increased slightly, to 6.04% from 6.03%. “Interest rates drifted slightly higher following the latest positive economic reports,” said Frank Nothaft, Freddie Mac chief economist, in a statement. “Shoppers bustling through the holiday season boosted December’s retail sales above consensus expectations. In the same month, industrial production reversed a three-month decline and rose faster than had been anticipated.”
Back to Mr Otteau,
“Housing prices normally rise strongly for several years, then flatten out for a year or two to allow consumers’ incomes to rise enough to make homes affordable again, Otteau said.”
I still can’t get over this statement. Does he expect a moon shot in wages to mirror the RE run from 2001-2005??? He would be right if everybody receives a 80-100% pay raise.
Today on yahoo;
“Workers’ wages, which had been whittled by inflation, grew by 4.2 percent for the 12 months ending December.”
http://news.yahoo.com/s/ap/fed_economy
4.2% whittled by inflation, what does Mr Otteau forecast regarding “real” wage growth???
http://money.cnn.com/magazines/moneymag/moneymag_archive/2007/02/01/8398744/index.htm?postversion=2007011810
Something to consider when working with agents
The vast majority of ARMs are originated in the markets that have affordability issues such as CA, NY, and NJ. A lot of the CA market seems to be more likely to take out an ARM loan.
JB,
I posted the info you requested from the Wall Street Journal article Ruling Faults Lender
In Option ARM Suit, but it appears to be stuck in moderation…
Philly Fed Index came in stronger than expected.
http://www.phil.frb.org/files/bos/bos0107.pdf
http://money.cnn.com/magazines/moneymag/moneymag_archive/2007/02/01/8398744/index.htm?postversion=2007011810
“i don’t see anything north of 5% barring some global exogenous shock.”
Richard,
Your post on Tuesday. Short end,long end???
About the cnn article that Pat and rentorbuy provided –
#1 says:
“1. Go it alone
Finding a house yourself, rather than relying on a broker, is easier than ever. Realtor.com has extensive listings, and you can call listing agents directly to set up appointments.
Once you decide to buy, ask for 3 percent off your final price. Listing agents often try to collect the full 6 percent if a buyer is brokerless.
But you did the work; you deserve the rebate. ”
Rebates are considered Illegal in NJ. Someone please correct me if I am wrong, but in NJ, isn’t it illegal for an agent to give any rebate back to the buyer?
I was talking to the folks at hungryagents.com who said they had their lawyers working on this thing.. but have not yet come up with any proper way to limit an agents commission in NJ.
sucks, i know!
Nothing but good will come of the long end of the Treasury market getting itself straightened out. If they can do it the Chicago pits without fighting the Fed, all the better.
Stronger dollar, no more inversion, Fed gets some latitude on the short end…and my gold short position stays in the money!
BTW, 50-75 bps on mortgage rates ain’t gonna do a thing to slow buying activity, either.
“know if you came to that conclusion based on information other than where they were located…”
I know historically they have done business in CA, but yeah I am kind of assuming.
chicagofinance Says:
January 18th, 2007 at 11:15 am
BTW – the Bernanke testamony is just a smoke screen. He doesn’t want to discuss rates, so instead he is pontificating on a provocative topic assured of providing the neccessary electricity for the pundits.
I haven’t reviewed the testimony, but I would bet he said essentially NOTHING.
Following-up: I read some of the summary stories. He walked away scot-free. Basically he came out with an allegation [correct I beleive] that Congress is a bunch of spendthifts [i.e. on the offense]. He spent the session watching Congressmen defend their actions instead of having the political grandstanders take potshots at his policies, strategy and implementation. Quite Sun-Tzu.
Rebates are considered Illegal in NJ.
Sure, but you don’t need to work it as a rebate. You could adjust the sales price to reflect the fact that seller need only pay 3% rather than 6% commission. That arrangement, however, is between the agent and the seller.
Perhaps you could suggest the agent gets 4% and the savings get reflected in the sales price. Everyone wins here:
-You get 2% off
-The seller gets his house sold, while breaking even (he was planning on spending 6%)
-The agent gets 4% instead of the normal 3%
And in Las Vegas, where prices are expected to drop significantly in 2007, American Homes West has upped what it pays buyer’s brokers from $1,000 to $10,000, with an added $5,000 if the agent gets the buyer to pay full price.
It’s not just builders that are offering agent incentives; even individual homeowners, like Mohamad Khurram of Woodbridge, Va., are getting in on the trend. The reward for Khurram’s $785,000 four-bedroom is 8 percent plus $5,000 – that’s nearly $70,000 to just the buyer’s broker – if the house sells at listing price
Now I am wondering – let’s say he drops price of his house by those 70K and put it on FSBO or assists to sel – would not it generate tons of interest?? because his home would be priced 70,000 below!!!!! comparable homes (thats of course if from the beginning he did not price his home 100K above comps…)
re:Countrywide
They have an office in Hoboken. As do 3 of the other 4 top 5 sub-prime lenders.
HSBC
Citi
Wells Fargo
Jersey is a dead state there are so many people taking their money made from real estate to other places. I did that myself 2 years ago at the peak of this overpriced chaos. The problem is on many levels but let me see if I can break this down to its simplest reasons.
1-Jobs in other states/cities pay 70-110% the rate that Jersey/New York does. I had a company in NJ trying to get me to convert to perm at a mere 80K. I have the same job much less stress in the south for here for 95K. I have a friend who walked away from a 167K a year in NJ to take a job here for 120K. The funny part is after all the tax, insurance, cost of living and housing he takes home more money making 47K less and has since paid off his house that is some 1200sq ft larger and brand new that he had in Jersey. The waste he paid in property taxes and insurance alone would get his blood boiling.
2-Property taxes in places like NC, GA, TN, TX are typically half or significantly less than NJ. Mine went from 6500 to 2400 and my home size was 2000sq ft and 27 years old but my new home is over 3000+ and less than 2 years old. Which would you rather live in?
3-Poor commutes. Parkway Tolls, EZ pass, potholes, Road Rage, etc are all nearly a thing of the past where I live now. Wonderfull super cells. Yes we get traffic but no one is trying to take your bumper off to get one car ahead in the backup.
4-Drinkable Water and Breathable Air. To take a quote from the matrix do you think thats air your breathing? Yes its polluted.
5-No low cost housing in NJ. I know people that made together 100K but really couldnt afford a house worth living in NJ. That rediculous. Its not California with its sunny shores its an overdeveloped wasteland of tampons and attitude with high priced beach passes and lousy summer traffic. Makes me feel bad for my friends that want to leave the state but cannot or will not because of family reasons.
6-Companies are moving the jobs and even HQ’s out of Jersey. Lucent did, Merck is close to, and a few other phama companies I worked for relocated positions here in the south. More positions are opening up down here than there. When Merck goes the state will collapse because the rest of the pharma companies will do the same.
7-If you think the south is all VCR’s and Journey is the latest hot group you should rethink that as all my neighbors are from NY, NJ, and OH who all will tell you the same story their houses went up and they decided they werent working to give all thier money to the state and mortgage companies and have since gone to greener pastures. We have all the same places we did up north right down to olive garden and dunkin donuts. Plus my internet speed is some 20% faster here and much more reliable. I guess because its new lines not 50 year old ones trying to get upgraded.
8-While the housing market has softened in the south a few realtors are saying its because the overpriced areas are having trouble selling to get here. That makes sense to me. Were still seeing growth but not as fast when you see who is moving to the area (NJ, NY, OH) you get the story from them that it took longer for thier house to sell.
9-Schools in places like NC, TN, GA, and TX are much worse than Jersey. Yes when you look at the state as a whole that is correct but there are areas in NC, TN, GA, and TX that exceed those typically found in NJ. I happen to live in an area where the schools are near the top of best schools in the nation despite the state raking near the bottom. Dont judge by the state but by the area you plan to live in.
10-DMV is not called immigration here and of the 2 times I went I was the only person in line. No chaos getting tags or any of that other NJ BS.
Here are some areas to look at.
Raleigh/Durham, NC – Look at Cary and Apex.
Charlotte, NC – Look at Mooresville, Harrisburg, and Fort Mill, SC.
Atlanta – Find out where you job is first then make sure your home is on that side of the highway.
Tennesee – Not 100% sure but I get a lot of calls asking me to relocate there.
Get out while you can.
to #132 …
That arrangement, however, is between the agent and the seller.
exactly.
No agent would agree to that, unless there’s a change in the the rebate law; especially because buyers and sellers do not talk directly.
Tennesee – Not 100% sure but I get a lot of calls asking me to relocate there.
Get out while you can
Merck is close to, and a few other phama companies I worked for relocated positions here in the south.
May I ask you – what do you do for living – in general terms – I haven’t heard many stories of people from pharma companies having employees lining up to hire them recently…
it’s more in reverse – jobs are very scarce and people are struggling to get them.
Tick,
You make very valid points. I think about the same often. When you refer to “down here”, can you specifically state where??? By the way, Congrats for selling at the peak.
Sorry for the typo, correct one must say: I haven’t heard many stories of people from pharma companies having employers lining up to hire them recentl.
I am a Exchange Administrator and by buddy is a Global Messaging Engineer. My Neighbor a former princeton police officer is now working as an administrator here. Second Neighbor former NJ State Police doing detective work here. Guy accross the street not sure what he did in NJ but he is retired but went to work to find something to do during the day. Wife’s parents left because they can live off thier teachers retirement and have extra money to travel. I find it funny that on my street of 11 houses 3 are former NJ, 2 from PA, 2 from Ohio, 1 from Vegas. Not sure where the rest are from.
I worked for Merck, Lucent, Pfizer, Schering-Plough, Merial to name a few. I still talk to co-workers. 2 have since moved to the area and 2 more have visited. 3 friends have visited but are stuck because of family reasons.
Merial moved to Duluth GA.
Lucent moved to Chicago area.
Merck recently started moving its data centers to Charlotte, NC and has been talking about moving their HQ to Charlotte or Raleigh/Durham.
If Merck pulls the trigger Schering will move some of its operations as well.
The joke is nobody is from North Carolina except maybe that pickler girl from american idol. Most have been moving here from NY from about 7 years ago.
Tick, as a GA resident for 10yrs I know exactly what you mean.
The DMV office I went to in somerville is so primitive, I had to pinch myself to believe I haven’t travelled back in time!
However, there’s not much you can do about schools even if you are in a good area in the south or mid-west. In KS, for instance, they don’t allow Evolution to be taught. In GA, you can get by high school without ever touching a Physics book. Imagine having friends and not discussing Newton’s laws?! ;-)
And, there’s not a whole lot to do there -relatively speaking (site-seeing, museums, beaches, etc.) The closest big city from Atlanta is atleast a 5 hour drive. I have to admit, people in Georgia are way nicer!
ok, I am not making any point here.. just stating my observations.
Glad you enjoy it ‘down there’
Tick….to quote you…”We have all the same places we did up north right down to olive garden and dunkin donuts.”
Ummmm…OK
“Wife’s parents left because they can live off thier teachers retirement and have extra money to travel.”
By the way, thank you NJ taxpayer’s.
Thanks BC Bob.
NC near Charlotte. Felt there was more to do with a family here than Raleigh Durham. Was offered a lot of positions in the last 2 years in TN and Atlanta has always been inquiring.
For those looking in the area Denver and Sherrills ford are becomming hot areas north of Charlotte as they are putting in a 4 lane highway to work with the expanded traffic they expect. Just be sure to stay away from Mecklengurg county schools and you will do fine.
4th of july here is a blast because fireworks are allowed.
Skiing is only 2 hours away in the mountains.
You can scuba here they have rock quarries.
Disney is a 9 hour drive.
Parks like you wouldnt believe not like the lousy overcrowded places back in NJ. Clean too.
So many advantages that the wife and kids do not miss or want to even visit NJ. Except we have a wedding back in NJ.
>>Richard,
Your post on Tuesday. Short end,long end???
10 year. i can see a scenario where it briefly bounces off but it won’t sustain.
>>Reechard: I don’t want to take swings at you. You make me feel as if I’m playing rope-a-dope.
no reasons to take swings. be a man and act like one. my prediction is based upon my own research and opinion. we can revisit this later this year and see if it’s accurate.
Tick,
Don’t you miss the stench on the turnpike?? We are jealous, we’ll send the stink your way rather than to NY.
coming out of lurker mode for a minute…
“We have all the same places we did up north right down to olive garden and dunkin donuts.”
I’m not sure that the allure of the olive garden is enough to convince people to move out of new jersey. I know when I lived well below the mason-dixon, knowing that there was an olive garden, outback and chili’s didn’t exactly make it feel like i was up north again. in fact, before i moved to the south, i dont believe i had ever stepped foot in any of those places.
ok, back to lurker mode.
Chair Bernanke said it all
“the deficit is the calm before the storm”
went on to talk about entitlements , could
cripple the economy. How about NJ.
Do we have entitlements?
I don’t understand why every weekend there is a line to get into the olive garden…go to a real Italian place if you want good food
Richard,
I hope you are right.It will be good for gold. By the way, I am not predicting higher rates. Just listening to what the fed and the 10 year are saying presently. That could change on a dime as future monthly data is released. Reasons for a change?? I don’t think you would like that scenario.
The WSJ I asked about earlier, “Ruling Faults Lender In Option ARM Suit”, can be found up at #94 above. Finally released it out of moderation.
jb
Very cool..
Adding junk to the ETF pile
Barclays Global Investors has junk in the trunk.
The San Francisco-based unit of Barclays Plc filed a registration statement Wednesday with the Securities and Exchange Commission for an exchange-traded fund tracking the high-yield corporate bond market.
BGI is currently the only manager of fixed-income ETFs with 14 but this would be the firm’s first high-yield product. It would be designed to follow the iBoxx Liquid High Yield Index, which is calculated by International Index Co., according to regulatory documents.
Countrywide isn’t the only lender who is option-arm heavy. From #94 above.
Chevy Chase issued $7 billion in mortgages last year. Option ARMs accounted for “more than half” of mortgage originations in the past few years, the bank says.
bigwindow (151)-
Because to the vast majority of Americans, a 14-ounce plate of wet flour (pasta?) swimming in an oil slick qualifies as a tasty, well-cooked meal.
Funny that we all fight about markets and rates, when the real ruination of this country might well be an adult population in which morbid obesity and Type II diabetes are common conditions. A whole firggin’ nation of marshmallows hooked to insulin pumps.
#156 clotpoll, well said. well said indeed.
Tick….to quote you…”We have all the same places we did up north right down to olive garden and dunkin donuts.”
Funny…when I visited Raleigh, I asked the RE showing us around if it was possible to get good pizza in the area. She lived in Jersey years ago, so I figured it was worth asking. With all the NY metro people moving, you never know.
She said yes, “There’s a place down the street that’s almost as good as Pizza Hut”.
Okay… I guess I will be making my own pizza if I move.
Not the same. It’s the crappy water up here.
I tried making pizza when I was in FL for a while.
The only place I can make real Brötchen is in NJ, too.
http://www.mortgagedaily.com/
Five mortgage company offices had their approval to originate federally-insured loans revoked by HUD.
>>
Does anyone know the names of the five companies?
“A whole firggin’ nation of marshmallows hooked to insulin pumps.”
Clot,
What gets me is the huge increase in Type 2 for adolescents.
A whole friggin nation of marshmellows hooked in insulin pumps and easy credit, who have drunk the kool aid over the last few years.
Clot #130 you believe a 50 to 75 bp increase in mtg rates is not going to hurt buying activity? I think you are whistling Dixie on that one. You seem to think you can have it both ways;its not going to happen.
Sorry for the gap but work here lets me go to lunch instead of forcing me to eat in my cube.
Brookly Bros is nearby and they are from NY. I think they still have their place on Staten Island.
There is good italian. The point I was making is you move figuring your going to a hick town when people mention the south but its built up so much that every food chain and then some is here. Its not like the big attraction is the McDonalds going in. You literally give nothing up on shopping and places to eat and things to do. Good Chinese also is here.
To give you an idea of the difference you can let your kids play in the play areas at a McDonalds without fear of hyperdermic needles poking them. Plenty of parents watching their kids and the kids dont act out of line like they would up north. In some respects its like turning back the clock to when I was a kid a heck of a lot safer. At Chick-fil-e Not sure how to spell it on my Jersey education but at times there is a worker there walking around asking you if you want drink refills and they go get it for you. Ever seen that up north? There is a feeling of welcome when you go out to eat not a feeling of what the hell do you want and maybe I might get it for you and not spit in it.
Halloween here was amazing like nothing I have seen since I was a child living in NJ back in the 70’s and 80’s. It was literally fun for everyone.
Its something you dont realize how bad it is there until you get out of it. Within 10 minutes of being in NJ I can find road rage and someone with thier middle finger up. It used to happen every time I landed in Newark after a buisness trip. Here they let you in traffic but dont ride your tale about it 10 miles trying to run you off the road for doing so.
As for my wife’s parents yes thank you NJ tax payers but honestly no thanks because they would have liked to have stayed in NJ but the cost of living drove them to move out. Now they live on a lake and never think about it.
In all if I were to lose my job tommorow unemployment would cover all the bills I receive with extra to pay so we dont starve. Can anyone say that living in NJ?
There is more to life than working to give it all to the state and mortgage companies.
Best of luck to anyone looking to get out and I hope you get out with money to spare. Remember your money goes three times farther in other places.
NC is the new Florida.
Once the northern Yankees take over North Carolina school boards, I doubt the teaching of evolution will be in any serious jeopardy. Evolution seems to win out in the end once the creationists / intelligent designers run out of money to fight the legal battle.
Florida is the new Alabama.
lifelongrenter:
Most smart investors have stepped to the sidelines. You will continue to have some home sellers wating for a rebound which wont’happen.
#58 Home Seller Says:
You are abolutely correct. There are buyers in all ranges if you price your house correctly. I see nice homes in Chatham, Short Hills, Summit, Berkey heights, new providence etc go into contract in a couple of days or weeks if priced correctly. Some of these homes are priced in the 800K to 1 Mil range.
They key is to see what inventory is out there in your town and how long those homes have been on the market. This should give you an idea how to price your house competitively.
BC Bob,
Type 2 was there when I was a kid 30+ years ago.. There we where at the nurses office getting our insulin shots in the belly.. And not one of us were marshmallows..It was just more hidden.. We were a secret society…..Now the age of insuln pumps.. you notice it more.. You don’t want anyone seeing you “shooting” the insulin.. I still hide in the bathroom..
I’ve had some outstanding sushi in Chapel Hill. Last place I’d ever expect to find it. And I studied the sushi bar carefully before I decided to sit down. Very cosmopolitan.
On a politically incorrect note, there’s a high percentage of attractive young blonde females in the Chapel Hill area. NC girls rule! Nice eye candy for us old married types.
(My apologies to all.)
Oil through $50 although it bounced back off.
A couple weeks ago I mentioned that someone was talking a floor in oil starting with a $3-. We should start seeing this effect at the pump immediately. As soon as they can refine the stuff and get it into the wholesale market, you should see some instances of sub-$2.00 93 grade.
JB,
Were you able to get the address and prior sale info on that house in Madison, NJ (MLS 2363371). From some of the updates, looks like could be a flipper, but could be interesting.
Thanks,
ES
1- Interest rates are going to increase and to families who are maxed out to begin with this is a bad decision. If your banking on them staying the same and you making more money in the future your making a big mistake.
2-Corzine jacking up additional fees. Really didnt the state learn enough about voting democrat from Florio? Stupid is as Stupid does. Im not saying whats her name was a saint but for gods sake.
3-Insurance companies increasing fees (Really I heard for years when I turn a certain age the rates go down – Never saw a decrease until I moved).
4-Declining pay rates and job market. Before we left there were plenty of job offers but the pay rates had severely declining enough that the offers out of state became in line or greater than the state of NJ. The only high paying jobs were few and far between. Even NY was paying a poor rate. Add in outsourcing of tech jobs and throw in a dash of recruiting agencies taking too much off the top trying to live the glory days when bill rates were $250.00 an hour and you have a bad situation.
5-Homestead rebate? LOL. Were going to take an additional $1,000 from you slowly through the year but were going to make you feel like you got something back when we give you $100.00 at the end of the year and call it the homstead rebate. Were doing good by your right?
I believe Realtors have replaced car salesman as the sleeziest people of all. Hey it only costs an additional $63.00 a month to finance another 10K to get you into your dream home. Is the same tactic car salesmen use when they say “I dont know I will have to talk to my manager about this deal and if I do that we have a deal right?” Not to mention them undermarketing home values 10-20k for a quick sale or telling you your a fool for not pricing your home for 20k more only to tell you a couple months later that the market has declined and you should lower your price to what the more realistic realtor quoted you that you didnt sign with. After all most win 1-3% once you sign that paperwork.
NJ is severly overpriced. It will decline and it will be a hard decline dont bet on NJ real estate as a future income. The new housing companies are a clear indicator of that when they pull out. If you got it sell it. If your looking and think your going to make money look elsewhere.
Im betting the layers are working in a way to start suing the realtor agencies for malpractice. You watch its going to happen.
When I was a student at UNC, there was a big push in Raleigh to build a state zoo.
Jesse Helms suggested they just ring Chapel Hill with a 12 ft high electric fence.
Tick:
FYI – the Quiznos Subs in Red Bank shut down after being in business for a little over a year.
The biggest mystery I can think of in today’s markets is not the inner working of hedge funds, but rather how in the name of Illitch can the Domino’s on the Hoboken/JC border stay open.
I think we speculated in the past…..too many people from out of the Northeast bringing their screwed up palettes in tow….
Oil’s FIFO, tho.
When I want to visit the midwest or the south and I don’t have the time, I just go to Times Square and look around a bit.
At least the WWF Cafe shut down, although it was replaced with a Hard Rock…..mostly a lateral move, but a couple notches up.
Today’s adolescents will be the first generation after 1900 with a shorter lifespan than their parents.
Other things I love about the South:
1) Concealed weapons without permits.
2) Fried pickles.
3) Really hot women who are blood stupid (at least, back in the day).
4) Executions. Especially those involving devices named “Old Sparky”.
5) Richard Petty (I just like that name).
6) Pork products that have been vulcanized past the point of identification as a food product.
How about Fried Coca-Cola? Yes, it exists.
I dont remember a Quizno’s in red bank. I used to go to the hobby store when I was in high school. I went to school with Kevin Smith. Used to drink with him but I dont recall it. Was living in Atlantic Highlands back then.
Keep this in mind when travelling through places like NC and you dont see anything thinking no one lives here. Wasnt till our realtor told us that a lot of NC has building codes that dont allow them to put buildings higher than the trees next to a highway. So areas you think there is nothing has a lot going on just behind the trees.
From what I saw Starbucks cant survive in Cary/Apex mainly because of something called Mc-Cafe. Its McDonalds variation of Starbucks Minus the 4 dollar coffee’s.
Places I lived, Atlantic Highlands, Toms River, Neptune, Old Bridge, Sayreville, Edison.
Another cool thing down here I wish I would have thought of is remember the old little tiny kodak photo places in the middle of a parking lot? Down here they are coffee places where you drive up and get your coffee from them both directions. Brilliant I wish I would have thought of that with the way people pay out the yahoo for coffee.
Richard Says:
January 18th, 2007 at 1:10 pm
be a man and act like one. my prediction is based upon my own research and opinion. we can revisit this later this year and see if it’s accurate.
Reechard: you confuse me – you make a visceral pitch, then immediately turn around and reply on your [supposed] intellect. I guess I should expect as much based on your wimsical past history.
ChiFi (179)-
Fried Coke? Done that; it’s good. More things I love:
1) Suburban meth labs.
2) Lack of any discernible zoning (common example: church next to gas station next to strip club).
3) Cabela’s every 25 miles.
From MarketWatch:
Builders look for 2007 housing recovery
Homebuyers have been backing out of sales contracts and forfeiting their down payments during the housing slowdown, but cancellation rates should steady in the first quarter and taper off later in 2007, said the chief executive of one of the nation’s largest home builders Thursday.
“Cancellations are likely to stabilize and stay level this quarter, and then decrease,” said Ara Hovnanian during a Web cast of a real estate conference sponsored by Deutsche Bank in New York, adding cancellations should get back to “normalcy in a quarter or two.”
The Hovnanian CEO said many cancellations are for older contracts signed when the market was booming and home prices were rising. He said one way the company is avoiding cancellations is to negotiate with buyers at the closing table.
“We don’t like to do it, but it can prevent cancellations,” Hovnanian said.
Home builders have been reporting surging cancellation rates driven higher by sagging consumer confidence and difficulty in selling existing homes.
When asked to pick an indicator he’s looking at to spot a potential bottom for housing, Hovnanian said “we’re watching [home] resale listings, which is something we never used to focus on.”
Home builders face an inventory glut sparked by overbuilding and speculative demand drying up, but are hoping the spring selling season can jumpstart a recovery in 2007.
RMB,
I hear you. It runs in my family, sister’s been taking insulin since 12.
Clot,
You damn Tar Heel.
Tick:
quoted from the book “Fast Food Nation”….each McDonald’s [and really any pre-packaged] crapburger conatins the meat of over 1,000 different animals.
The reason e.coli is such a problem, is due to the fact that modern efficient slaughtering practices cause in the digestive tracts of cattle [yes – contents and all] to be intermingled with otherwise sterile body tissue.
When you go to Olive Garden, make sure the meatballs are well-done or skip-um.
Buca di Burp-Me
Clotpoll Says:
January 18th, 2007 at 3:07 pm
ChiFi (179)-
1) Suburban meth labs.
Clot: Denver is one MILE HIGH Meth Lab
1) Concealed weapons without permits.
Go ahead and consider robbing or car jacking someone else who might just have a few guns.
2) Fried pickles.
Havent tried them but excellent BBQ.
3) Really hot women who are blood stupid (at
least, back in the day).
You arent kidding and if they have less than 2 piercings and limit of one tastefull tatto. A girl at my gym went shooting on Thanksgiving but darn she is hot.
4) Executions. Especially those involving devices named “Old Sparky”.
LOL. We have the guys who are willing to pull the handles.
5) Richard Petty (I just like that name).
Junior gets seen around town a lot and a friend of mine works out with Jimmy Johnson.
6) Pork products that have been vulcanized past the point of identification as a food product.
Hmmm. Adds flavor. You think that restaraunt back north doesnt have rat?
:)
Tic, do you have njrereport.com in NC?
;-)
chicagofinance
I barely ever eat at McDonalds. 3 times a year maybe? Im a Taco Bell fan and I heard one I used to go to a lot up north just got into a lot of trouble in Edison with people getting Ill.
Something rediculous but I swear there is more meat in a NC taco bell taco than in NJ.
I prefer the hole in the wall style places like in NY City walk under ground to get into them. The place where its a dinky place but the food is just so darn good and barely anyone speaks english except to take an order.
Look at this njmls# 2640252, originally listed in summer of 2006 for $559K sound in Fall of o5 for 500K, price was steadly reduced to 479K, no interest. Relisted today at 519K.
I guess if people did not care at 479K, then they will care if it is priced 40K more at 519K.
Gee and we are members of the league of dorks?
Sorry #191 should be njmls # 2640251.
Hey Bergen (191)-
Didja ever hear me say EVERY deal offered is a good deal?
Im in NC and visit the website. Have 2 friends which should be leaving NJ soon heading south.
north carolina is a great state. the local
floks just wish the yankees would slow down.
re #91/92 –
I can’t believe they relisted at that price. Have you seen either of those houses yet?
River Edge taxes are insane.
where are the taxes , not insane? what town.
please name it.
Take a peek at Glen Ridge (Essex).
jb
I think GR taxes are worse than RE, but I haven’t done any kind of detailed comparison..
jb
GR is worse than everywhere, in comparison RE isn’t that bad.
Paramus isn’t insane.
it’s whimsical chikago, learn how to spell if you want to sound educated.
The Chapel Hill area is not NC. Take a drive an hour in any direction and let me know if your observations hold.
yes, paramoose.
Glen Ridge has to be close to the top. Right after high school graduation, the lawns were flowing with for sale signs.
Its something you dont realize how bad it is there until you get out of it. Within 10 minutes of being in NJ I can find road rage and someone with thier middle finger up. It used to happen every time I landed in Newark after a buisness trip. Here they let you in traffic but dont ride your tale about it 10 miles trying to run you off the road for doing so.
Or untill you move to NJ…..
Do people really go to random towns in the south expecting to find great Italian food? Do you go to Montpelier, Vermont looking for tamales?
One thing that is great about this country is the variety. The South in particular arguably has the most unique and important brand of American culture. Take a look at southern food, music, literature, etc. And southern women are unquestionably the hottest around.
Anyway, Atlanta and Charlotte are more like Boston and NJ than Alabama. They are both filled with people from the NE. You CAN go out for a nice Italian dinner if you want (maybe not Babbo, but still).
These cities are filled with people in high paying jobs who are cultured and like to do things other than watch NASCAR and hang out in front of the Piggly Wiggly.
One of my best friends from law school who is Russian took a job in Charlotte loves it. His commute is 15 minutes which he does in his convertible basically the whole year. Cost of living is so low that he effectively makes double what he would make in NYC.
These cities are filled with people in high paying jobs who are cultured and like to do things other than watch NASCAR and hang out in front of the Piggly Wiggly.
We need to maintain the image of this stereotype to keep the Northeast riff raff away.
Call someplace paradise, kiss it goodbye.
jb
This is sounding like an ad from the chamber of commerce of Raleigh or Charlotte. Why doesn’t Trenton just add 1% onto the realty transfer fee for those heading to NC??? Seems like a great way to raise significant revenue.
Tick,
You may have already stated, what is the difference in your property taxes/car ins.??
Thanks.
MBA also released its economic forecasts for the next three years. These projections did not differ substantially from those set out last week by Freddie Mac, however, here is a summary of the report.
**Real GDP growth will average about 3.0 percent in 2007, 3.3 percent in 2008 and 3.4 percent in 2009.
**Fixed mortgage rates are expected to rise to about 6.5 percent by the end of 2007 and to remain around that level through the forecast period.
**Existing-home sales will decline by about 7 percent and new home sales 8 percent relative to 2006. Both categories are projected to rebound in 2008 by about 3 percent and a further 1 percent in 2009.
**Existing home price appreciation will slow significantly over the next three years. Median prices for both new and existing homes should remain relatively flat next year and rise about 2 percent in 2008 and 2009.
**Purchase mortgage originations will reach $1.33 trillion in 2007 and remain flat in 2008. Refinance loans will total $1.06 trillion in 2007 and then decline to $957 billion in 2008. Purchase originations should edge up slightly the next year while refi originations should decline to about $800 billon.
**Total residential mortgage production in 2007 will be $2.39 trillion, declining by about 5 percent from an estimated $2.51 trillion in 2006. Total mortgage originations are expected to decline an additional 4 percent to $2.29 trillion in 2008 and drop another 6 percent to $2.15 trillion in 2009.
skep-tic. Thats the perfect comparison Charlotte is a lot like Boston.
I have a converible too. Charlotte has its good and bad with traffic. Nothing like the Parkway, Rt10, 287, or 27. The only headache about NC drivers is they dont use turn signals and they leave big gaps between cars moving forward. Its very easy getting in and out of the city. Our bus system is very good (CATS) Carolina transit system. Plus there is a free trolly in downtown charlotte to get you around. The city is small but food is good here. You can pretty much walk from one side of it to the other in about 20 minutes. We have street vendors and a starter bum set but they are friendly bums similar to california ones. Charlotte is expanding and putting in a lot of new roads even in areas which havent developed yet which is great thinking going foward. There are plans for a train system with the growth. Imagine if you could design NY from the beginning instead of trying to build around everything.
Denver and Sherrrills Ford of NC are going to be booming areas when Rt16 is complete sometime next year as those areas are currently a lot of woods.
The cool part you can talk to someone while pumping your gas they usually are from NY some 7 years ago. Now someone is about to complain well you have to pump your own gas there but hey I would rather do that than give my credit card to a guy who looks like he is about to mug me or rack up my credit the moment I walk away.
If there was one place we miss its Jose Teja’s by the woodbridge mall. Thats the only place we have yet to replace with something good.
3) Really hot women who are blood stupid (at least, back in the day).
And “Jersey Girl” stereotype come from Alabama???…….
Lurker: I saw the cape, it has potential, and I have family in the business, so it could be a possibility, subject to a discount.
The owners purchased in early 05 for 390k, and that would probably be my best price.
The other I did not get a chance to see, but just saw it today at the new improved (higher) price. Just incredible.
GR taxes are worse then RE, but then RE is not GR if that means any thing.
Paramus taxes are resonable comapred to surrounding towns, but you would think with all the malls that they might be lower; but they are still much better then RE,and the schools are just as good.
“skep-tic. Thats the perfect comparison Charlotte is a lot like Boston.”
OK, let’s not get carried away. I know both well, not Charlotte as well as Boston. That being said, Charlotte is no Beantown. There is a little green wall, in the heart of Kenmore Square, that makes Beantown extra special. Also, when was the last great tea party in Charlotte??
#64 , #66
There will always be more and less informed buyers/sellers in a market. Unfortunately for people who are buying, I just don’t see a ‘crash’ happening in this area.
Again, there are buyers out there which some people don’t like to hear (by the tone of the responses I’m seeing), but its the truth. If you house is priced accordingly, it won’t stay on the market for very long. Again, you won’t get peak levels like last year, but if your smart, you’ll take 5-10% off that. just my .02
Here ya go BC Bob.
Property Tax:
Toms River, NJ – $6500.00 (2000sq Ft, 27 years old) Left just prior to it being re-assesed.
NC – $2400.00 (3100sq ft, 6 Months Old, in City Limits)
Wife’s Parents
Brick, NJ $5700.00
NC $1200.00 outside city limits on lakefront.
Waterbill $12.00 a month $18.00 if they go over usage limit. Dont recall our water bill but we filled a 18′ temporary swimming pool for a party and it wasnt much when the bill came. I remember having a stroke on my Howell, NC water bill and I certainly felt like I filled a swimming pool.
Water is very drinkable and doesnt taste like chlorine. Toms River we had bottled water.
Car Insurance is half the cost of NJ. (Still using State Farm)
Gas is about 10 cents more per gallon but I drive a lot less than my former Toms River to Parsippany Commute. Couldnt see financing an additional 100K to be that much closer to work for a house in poor condition to the home from Toms River. Was looking forward to living near the jersey shore too but seaside is a dump. Not the same town when I was a teen.
Food is about the same cost.
Electric is lower but I havent figured out by how much. Dont really feel compelled.
Gas gets a little pricey in the winter but it really hasnt been bad but Im also heating 50% more house than I had in Jersey and we use the gas fireplace a lot. Cooking is also gas.
First year car registration was $300 because car was from out of state but its a one shot deal. I dont recall the renewal but it wasnt bad. My wife actually got my tags without me having to be there.
Here is the catcher you have to watch out for. If you sell your house in NJ and its value is over $300,000 (What house isnt?). NJ will take $3,000 of the sale. I heard there is a loophole if you get your license in another state before you sell your house in NJ but we had to pay the 3K. Your lawyer will know more.
JB (or others with MLS, etc. access),
Any address/listing and sale info on MLS 2364151 (4 BR in Milburn). It looks like Milburn/Short Hills prices are at least getting to where I only have to lease my wife into slavery, and not forfeit my future unborn children.
Thanks in advance
Clot: No I nevr said you did, But surely you can understand why some members of the LOD’s crybabywannabehomeowners/renter losers, are more then reluctant to take the plunge in this type of environment.
40K increase for a house that was not selling, Gee I guess i should have bid on it last week when it was 40K cheaper, I am down 40k in a week!
Don’t know if this was the realtor or the sellers stratey, but here would have been a perfect time for a realtor to walk away from a listing IMHO.
10% off 300K – 30K off. Most reductions I saw were in the 10K range. thats 3%. Do not impress me even If I see 3 of them also I do understand that it is the same as reducing price once by 30K…
Now Reductions of 10K on 700K house – that is what I call an insult…
Burst (219)-
That agent should have run away from that listing. Unf, it was probably the agent who suggested the “strategy” of jacking the price.
Home Seller (216)-
Keep chiming in. This news must be hitting the LOD like Jack Bauer with a stripped live electrical cord.
Electric is lower but I havent figured out by how much. Dont really feel compelled.
New Jersey is about 12.77 cents per kilowatt-hour (kWh. North Carolina is 7.91 cents per kWh; about 38% lower.
“For example, Lennar Corp. earlier this week said sales incentives offered to homebuyers averaged $47,300 per home in the fourth quarter, up from $10,600 the previous year.
“
JB, this paragraph from the Marketwatch piece you posted is interesting. Another way selling prices continue to stay inflated without affecting comps.
RentinginNJ.
Man in NJ the power would pop in and out about once every other week to once a month. Constantly electric going out just enough to have to reset the clocks. NC has been great with little to no power outages. Maybe 1-2 times a year I have to reset the microwave clock.
Its all those little things that like I said you dont realize are a neusance until you dont have to do them any more. If you add up all a little tiny issues and costs in NJ you realize how much of a headache the state is.
Another example is we returned our ez passes 2 years ago but they still send me e-mail statement about one of them.
No tolls between work and home another one of life’s annoyances removed.
Tick,
Thanks!! It looks like you scored!!
By the way, everybody in NJ gets hit with the realty transfer fee, doesn’t matter if you are moving next door or to the moon.
Clot #216 It is still very early in the game, best we see wait and see how this spring/summer turns out, before you guys declare victory.
MLS 2300885
OLP 799
New LP 795
….aah, brilliant strategery! Can a realtor please help me understand how a 0.6% price drop helps this house sell faster? Its not like people are searching in a range of 695-795. So whats the real story? Is this the beginning of a “LOSE 5K A WEEK!” strategy?
House has been empty since about September 2006.
An agent tells me that a valid method of determining home value is to use recent comps and divide sales prices by assessed value. Use that multiple against assessed values of homes for sale to determine appropriate market value.
Are there any holes in this method if you think comps sold for fair value?
Seneca, just use “cold for x% over assessed value” for a given house to compare.
Note that some people are brain-dead, and will pay 100 above assessed value in towns where many houses are selling for 10-20% above assessed value.
I’m floored by some of the idiotic deals that have closed on crapboxes, when better houses are available for a similar/lower price.
A fool and his money…
That’s “Sold for x% over assessed value”
That’s “100% above”
Bergenbubble,
This spring or summer??? How about 2009-2011??
MORTGAGES EARN DEBT DOWNGRADES
“Early damage has finally begun to grip the ABX index for “BBB” credit insurance. The credit default swaps (CDS) market concerns standard insurance for the vast collection of bonds, including many types of mortgages. Foreclosures mean deceased returns on investment within mortgage portfolios for banks. The BBB type refers to subprime mortgage loans, as measured from a broad basket of size and regional locations. The ABX index has fallen suddenly in the late autumn and continues to fall. Relative to its own market, a drop of over 5% is large indeed. As quasi-insurer having invested in CDS contracts, your risk premiums rose and you profited like with a stock held. The index indicates a sudden decline in high risk mortgage conditions.”
“The mortgage industry is unraveling precisely as my forecasts indicated last year. The concept of the credit default swap contracts is exactly the same as those pertaining to the General Motors bonds collateralized to car loans in summer 2005. As the bonds are damaged, the CDS contracts rise in value. The BBB index below absolutely screams of a widening crack in the mortgage industry, certain to extend into the banking system balance sheets. The scale of the BBB index is inverted to reflect fallen value of the mortgage portfolios.”
http://www.financialsense.com/fsu/editorials/willie/2007/0118.html
Clot-
#221. 24 references funny.
BTW, as a proud member of the LOD, I’d like to point out these gems from James previously posted.
https://njrereport.com/images/dec06a.gif
https://njrereport.com/files/SalesInvOverlay.xls
Here’s an analogy for you…the NJ real estate market will be like a water park ride…steep and scary like the Super Speed Water Slides or slow and a little crazy like the Colorado River Ride. But, either way, it’s heading down.
JM
eagle,
MLS# 2364151 – Millburn
OLP/LP: $759,000
DOM: 3
No prior MLS history.
The address in the listing is 4# Southern Slope, but the tax records have it listed as 18 Southern Slope (Sorry, I won’t post full MLS addresses).
jb
Eagle, I know that house, it’s a nice house (one of the 3 or 4 “real” houses in Millburn that aren’t a tiny row house.
Seems very well maintained.
However there’s no yard at all.
Makes me laugh that last year some genius paid $850,000 for a tiny cape on a 50 x 90 lot (but it had “granite” and “stainless steel”!).
on today’s CPI and housing data.
>>”People have been focusing so much on the weak housing market, but it doesn’t look like it’s spilling at all into the rest of the economy. This expansion is going to go on,” said Brian Gendreau, investment strategist for ING Investment Management. “The market has been pricing in a rate cut. It’s still in there, but with a lot less conviction than before.”
couldn’t of said it better myself.
You can’t make this up,I’m not sure if this was posted??
“Assemblyman Louis Manzo called the governor “clueless” about local politics in Hudson County — never mind that Corzine lives in Hoboken.”
“He doesn’t understand urban New Jersey,” Manzo said. “His policies are out of touch. He knows more about Darfur, or wherever he goes, than he does about kids on New Jersey streets.”
http://www.nj.com/news/ledger/jersey/index.ssf?/base/news-6/116909920166980.xml&coll=1
http://www.iht.com/articles/2007/01/17/bloomberg/bxeuro.php
“The concern is that global rates are more likely to be on the way up than on the way down,” said Jane Coffey, the head of global equities at Royal London Asset Management. “Over the next six months, there will be more pressure on the Federal Reserve to raise rates.”
From above link
Pat,
What an outlandish statement, talk about raising rates??
Transit village in Hamilton NJ?
http://www.nj.com/printer/printer.ssf?/base/news-2/1169096988273230.xml&coll=5
Richard Says:
January 18th, 2007 at 7:04 pm
on today’s CPI and housing data.
>>”People have been focusing so much on the weak housing market, but it doesn’t look like it’s spilling at all into the rest of the economy. This expansion is going to go on,” said Brian Gendreau, investment strategist for ING Investment Management. “The market has been pricing in a rate cut. It’s still in there, but with a lot less conviction than before.”
Reech: I said it by sticking my neck out LAST NIGHT [see posts 39-45]. “No landing” methinks.
I crossed off 2006. I say beware the false bottom. If you find the right property, at the right price, and it suits your needs now, go for it. However, by early 3Q07, if you have not dove in and bought something, I’m guessing that we will be crossing off 2007 entirely.
I need lyrics people:
Sing to the tune of “Love Shack” by the B-52’s……let’s call it “CondoShack”.
KL – is this your specialty?
Stay away fools,
’cause ARMs rule,
at the Condooooo-Shack
Stainless steel appliances…….rusted
Yeah, BC, who you gonna believe….some folks around, or somebody with a British accent.
Somehow, the British accent sways me. [as does the pricing in of an increase going on right now.]
Home Seller (216)-
” I just don’t see a ‘crash’ happening in this area. ”
We don’t want a ‘crash’ either. We are looking for a minimum of 25%-30% cut in prices which we believe will happen by next year.
Do you have any data to prove that prices will not fall further?
I see that you have dropped your estimates from 5-15% (post #58) made 24 hours back to 5-10%.
To Clotpoll # 74.
I just gotta tell ya dude, when i’m bored at work I might click on a mls listing 20 times a day. Yep, same house over an over, Done it often. So I wouldn’t put too much stock on how many hits a house gets in any given day. It’s just me. [or another person just like me, it’s a common behavior]
Another HB warns..
From Marketwatch:
Pulte Homes cuts fourth-quarter outlook
Pulte Homes Inc. Thursday evening cut its view for the fourth-quarter, and now sees the per-share result from continuing operations ranging from a loss of 5 cents to income of 5 cents. Previously, the Bloomfield Hills, Mich.-based home builder had expected per-share income at the lower end of a range from 30 cents to 70 cents. Pulte said it now expects fourth-quarter impairments and land-related charges of $330 million to $350 million, or 83 cents to 88 cents per share. The company had previously expected $150 million in impairments and land-related charges.
What bottom?
From Reuters:
Pulte Homes cuts 4th-qtr forecast
Pulte said demand for new homes during the fourth quarter was still far below pre-2006 levels.
#245,
It will be interesting to see what the next round between Ivy Zellman Vs Mr Toll has to offer :)
Here is chart of rental vacancy Vs Home owner vacancy. We have experienced a major recession every time the ratio is above 1/4. We just crossed that ratio again.
http://img487.imageshack.us/img487/442/picture3yu8.jpg
Zac (244)-
A few bored guys at work clicking on the same listing over and over don’t amount to a drop in a bucket at the sites whose stats I watch.
At these places, an uptick in pageviews is a sure sign that showings will follow. And that’s what’s happening now around these parts.
And, not to fill the LOD with glee…but I think there is an element of the dead cat to this bounce. Just a feeling.
#243
Just curious….what is your situation currently? Are you renting and waiting for some type of ‘bottom’? If you are renting, are you looking to buy? If you don’t get the 25-30% cut in RE home prices, will you buy if we only drop another 10%? Will you move out of NJ if prices don’t drop 20-30% next year?
Oh, by the way, I did mean to say 5-15% but that
s just an approximation from spending months watching what’s been going on in mine and surrounding towns. Again, houses are staying on the market for LESS THAN A WEEK if they are priced correctly.
“but I think there is an element of the dead cat to this bounce. Just a feeling.”
Tar Heel,
How about a relief rally??
LOD, now thats funny.
“Somehow, the British accent sways me.”
Me too, either when it’s Elizabeth Hurley or when it’s bitter or lager.
Bitter – a mainstay in English pubs, this golden-brown draft ale is top-fermented, hoppy, dry, and lightly carbonated.
Lager – made with a bottom fermenting yeast, lagers are characteristically “smooth, elegant, crisp, and clean.”
Friday in Tokyo. Are the techs falling out of favor already??
“Asian stocks fell from a two-week high. Samsung Electronics Co. and Tokyo Electron Ltd. dropped after International Business Machines Corp. joined Apple Inc. and Intel Corp. in posting sales that trailed analysts’ estimates.”
http://www.bloomberg.com/apps/news?pid=20601087&sid=a1Z_mDYB.RZs&refer=home
Samsung is a POS company that deserves to be bid down on every bourse on the planet.
http://www.cnn.com/2007/SHOWBIZ/TV/01/18/seinfeld.commission.ap/index.html
What IS the deal?
On an unrelated- and depressing- note, I just realized that my dog has “six pack” abs.
Youth is wasted on the young.
Richard Says:
January 18th, 2007 at 7:04 pm
on today’s CPI and housing data.
>>”People have been focusing so much on the weak housing market, but it doesn’t look like it’s spilling at all into the rest of the economy. This expansion is going to go on,” said Brian Gendreau, investment strategist for ING Investment Management. “The market has been pricing in a rate cut. It’s still in there, but with a lot less conviction than before.”
couldn’t of said it better myself.
Reechard,
You’re referring to the economy and not the housing market, correct?
If so, I agree. The economy will chug on… housing market, not so much.
Rich
Home Seller # 250,
I don’t have to move out of NJ because i’ll buy at 30% discount next year.
Do you really think the current 5-15% discount will hold when all 30K+ (and growing) houses are PRICED CORRECTLY?
Do you really think the current 5-15% discount will hold when ARMers/investors go default in record numbers this year? As of last year 1 in 856 homes in NJ are in some state of bankruptcy (NJ makes it to top 10 in bankruptcy!). The number of loans to reset this year will be twice that of last year and the dollar amount of resets will not come down for AT LEAST ANOTHER 3 YEARS (end of 2009). On top of that exotic mortgage lenders are going kaput.
NO ONE EXPECTED A PRICE DROP IN 2006. The fun was supposed to start in 2007. 2006 discounts were a bonus.
Do you still think 5-15% drop is the bottom? If so, why?
I’ll trade ya.
My cat, George, is half-bald and allergic to everything. Plus he’s fat, so he won’t make you feel so bad.
Upside is, he’ll get you up EXACTLY at 5 am every morning. Clockwork.
“Samsung is a POS company that deserves to be bid down on every bourse on the planet.”
Tar Heel,
Kind of like those 500k capes in NNJ.
I posted an excerpt from an housing industry expert on my website. The guy who wrote this is pretty smart and is from Jersey.
“Housing prices normally rise strongly for several years, then flatten out for a year or two to allow consumers’ incomes to rise enough to make homes affordable again, Otteau said.”
Take a look at RE over the years in NJ, CA, elsewhere. Prices rise, flatten, maybe fall some, but then continue rising over the long term. Whether it has anything to do with rising incomes is debatable. But it’s the long term view that matters.
WAAAAAAAAAAAAH!!!
Lot’s of bitterness on this blog tonight. Maybe a change of domicile would help some of the folks here.
WAAAAAAAAAAAAH!!!
>>Friday in Tokyo. Are the techs falling out of favor already??
the market is fickle. unless you’re a day trader, you should have some staying power and look for buying opportunities on the dip. i still like capex forecasts for the tech companies, particularly the larger ones. in my opinion if you want to get boring but get in on the run up buy yourself some microsoft and ge and sit back. me thinks you’ll outperform the market handily by end of year.
listentothecrybabyhomedebtors:
“In essence, we reached 2010 prices by 2005,” he said.
Enjoy the ride down bagholders!
The ‘fraidycats can stay on the sidelines. 10 years from now we’ll see who came out ahead. Much wealth and security are made through real estate, especially long term.
Home ownership rates are around 70% – there’s gotta be a reason why.
This is dedicated to all the crybabywannabehomeowners.
WAAAAAAAAAAAAAAH!!!
check out MLS 2355932. nice CH colonial in the western part of summit for $580k. a decent deal if you ask me considering upgrades, CHC, low taxes, good schools, it being summit etc. i have a friend who lives on the next street over so i know the area well. this house would’ve sold fairly quickly about a year ago for $625k. today it’s fairly priced for a 7% discount. now if you go back another 6-12 months maybe it would’ve bid up to $640k but not much higher IMO. the 5-10% off peak prices (and i mean more than one data point by peak) is what i’m consistently seeing in this town and a few others.
http://today.reuters.com/news/articlebusiness.aspx?type=businessIndustry&storyID=2007-01-18T183616Z_01_N18451955_RTRIDST_0_BUSINESSPROIND-BUILDINGPRODUCTS-LAYOFFS-DC.XML&from=business
The housing bubble is actually an extension of the stock market bubble – that every bagholder can agree on.
Greensscum’s tech swindle = cost to American investors $7 trillion in retirement and life-savings.
Greenscam’s RE Debt swindle = $ X + a lifetime of debt servitude for Y millions of bagholders
“Home ownership rates are around 70% – there’s gotta be a reason why.”
LTTCBWBHO: You have to be Bob.
That one’s just too easy.
# 268 Richard,
What data piont?
All we have is a list price which no one cares about and two $ amounts you pulled out of thin air.
Richard (265)-
GE and MSFT? Boring, yes. Profitable…huh?
GE is like a 250-lb girl in flannel PJ’s.
As for MSFT, check this ugly MIT Technology Review MS Vista hatchet job…by a MSFT fan:
http://www.technologyreview.com/Infotech/17992/page1/
Vista may convince a whole new market of users to buy a Mac.
I was just browing the MLS for listings in Rockaway and Roxbury. Those towns are a bit too far west for me, but there’s quite a few starter houses for under $300K. I have not seen prices like that since 2003!
clot: I rode MSFT from sub-$24 to $31 / Immelt ain’t no joker either – obviously when Jerk Welch had to coin-flip between Nardelli and Immelt – he made the right choice. I do not endorse these stocks – if you even consider buying or selling these securities based on this opinion, you have clearly lost control of your faculties and possibly also continence.
Clot, regarding the large number of page hits – it’s curious homeowners checking out the competition.
That’s the number one reason why sites like zillow, inspite of their huge traffic, are not profitable. It’s homebuyers checking out each others granite.
Don’t be fooled. Let’s tally when we get the real numbers.
rentlord,
good point
Pat Says:
January 18th, 2007 at 10:29 pm
LTTCBWBHO: You have to be Bob.
That one’s just too easy.
Pat: no question LTTCBWBHO = Booya
we only need grim to confirm it
cf & pat
It’s Boyaa’s evil twin :)
Rebar, RentLard, et al (275, 276)-
Then why the uptick in showings? Why the recent sales?
Just like the guy who said “don’t believe your lying eyes”!
ChiFi (274)-
Actually, have much respect for Immelt/GE. They’re just a classic example of how the law of large numbers works against the stock price of a mega-behemoth company.
Nice little $24-$32 run for MSFT, too. I just think the train stops here. Every new product is just a fresh reminder that they make expensive, counter-intuitive, hard-to-use stuff that breaks.
It’s interesting, Clot publishes page hit numbers and the crybabies create every conjecture, prophecy and excuse and to deny the a perfectly plausible interpretation that some RE intersest exists.
On the other hand, our esteemed blog host publishes page hit numbers to this website, and the same crybabies can’t offer enough plaudits and enthusiasm about them.
Seems that both sets of numbers have merit.
Come on crybabies, keep denying information that doesn’t marry and confirm your preconceived opinions, and you will remain… crybabywannabehoweowners.
WAAAAAAAAAAAAAH!!!
f@cked broker
http://forum.brokeroutpost.com/loans/forum/2/86763.htm
” … Well now Indymac is making me buy back the loan, even though as a brokerage we I believe we did our due diligence as a broker, is their something I am missing? Is there a way I can handle this without having buyback a loan? Any help would be greatly appreciated
“
With all this talk about NC, I couldn’t lurk any longer. Since it has not been brought up, I must share what the natives say Cary (a very popular Raleigh suburb) stands for: Containment Area for Relocated Yankees. I’m also a Duke grad, which the locals call the University of NJ, Durham campus. In short, the presence of northeast natives is undeniable.
As for me, I am the rare case that moved the other direction. My wife and I (TN natives) moved from the Research Triangle to North Jersey last year, and I can definitely confirm the cost of living difference. We looked at buying a townhome in Durham when we got married 3.5 yrs ago and decided against it because we weren’t comfortable with housing costing 30% of our POST-TAX income. My how my view of the world has changed! :) I am a renter here after doing the market research, but I’m still forking over 36% of my pretax income for that. Our rent literally doubled when we moved.
As has been stated ad nauseam on this blog, NJ is not attractive to the average young professional anymore. I am here only because 1) I had to take whatever I could get to break into a new specialization without industry experience and 2) I wanted to get my MBA part-time and this area offered some of the best ranked options. My company is paying for 80% of my NYU education, so I can’t complain about my overall compensation situation, but let’s be real, without a huge promotion and raise when I’m done, we’ll be looking for greener (warmer) pastures in a few years. It’s a shame too; while people here definitely are not sugary sweet (which is all too often fake…take it from a boy raised in the south), we do love the diversity of ideas and lifestyles found in the NJ population. In terms of the environment, I would love to raise kids here if it weren’t for the outrageous costs.
listen,
“Clot publishes page hit numbers and the crybabies ”
What does your dumb brain see ‘published numbers’? You are so dumb that you ought to foreclose just to prove Darwin’s evolutionary theory.
clot,
Are you sure this uptick you are seeing is not seasonal?
#259
I’ll ask the question again, if prices DO NOT drop 30% as you predict, will you still buy or wait on the sidelines? Will you move out of the state? Are you married/single? What does your spouse think?
I’m just curious because you have a certain # locked in that you know where the market will be. In my situation, I am moving out of state and both my family and the BUYER’s are extremely happy with the deal.
You seem to have it all figured out so I’d be curious to see what YOUR situation is…..
>>I do not endorse these stocks
chicago i’ll see you here at the end of the year and we’ll look at what the stock is today versus then. then we’ll see who was right.
>>All we have is a list price which no one cares about and two $ amounts you pulled out of thin air.
i thought it was assumed i’m talking about prior sold properties and what their original asking price and adjustments were before sold.
Condo prices reveal housing trends
By Les Christie, CNNMoney.com staff writer
In trying to get a read on how much real estate markets are slumping, some people may be looking at the wrong indicator.
The National Association of Realtors (NAR) tracks sales of both single-family homes and condos.
In the third quarter of 2005, NAR stats for single-family homes show that prices fell 1.2 percent from a year earlier, with 30 percent of markets showing declines.
Condo prices not only dropped more steeply, 2.1 percent, but 46 percent of markets showed declines.
Which gives a truer picture? Adam Koval, a former investment banker who now runs SocketSite.com, which covers San Francisco’s real estate market, insists condos are the way to go.
“Look at the same building six or eight months after the first sales were made,” he says. “The prices then will be a pretty good indicator of what’s going on.”
The reason: It’s an apples-to-apples comparison. With condos, there’s, “no adding floor space or big improvements,” says Koval. If you see a price change, it’s usually pure appreciation – or depreciation.
Contrast that with single-family house stats.
NAR prices, for example, do not account for the differences – especially the improvements – in homes. New houses, for example, have grown much larger, to an average of about 2,400 square feet from 1,500 in 1970.
To be more accurate, you’d have to see what the same houses sell for at different times. An index constructed by the Office of Federal Housing Enterprise Oversight (OFHEO) index does compare same-home sales, but it doesn’t account for investment in that home, say a big remodeling project.
Other shortcomings: The OFHEO data doesn’t do a good job capturing luxury home sales, because they track only transactions with conforming mortgage loans, which are limited to $417,000 for most of the nation. And it does capture values listed in refinancings, which are based only on appraisals.
Chief economist for the Mortgage Bankers Association, Doug Duncan, says there are several reasons why condo prices are more accurate.
“A smaller percentage of people who own condos occupy them; many are bought as second homes and for investment purposes,” he says. “There’s less friction in that market; it’s more liquid.”
More condo sellers react to market changes and act quicker than owners of single family homes, who tend to hang onto property in the face of lower prices.
Single-family house owners act like buy-and-hold value stock investors, riding out market peaks and valleys. They sell when they go through a life change – raising a family, retiring or moving for a new job, for example.
Condo owners act more like growth stock investors, who bet on the hottest companies and trade in and out of stocks much more often, reacting to what they perceive is happening in the market.
In looking back over the historical data of when the national housing market peaked, Duncan pinpointed July 2005 as the top. He also found it was the first month in four years that condo price appreciation was less than that of existing single-family houses.
Of course, condo stats have their own imperfections. Jonathan Miller, of the New York appraisal firm, Miller Samuels, says when markets slump, the mix of apartment sales changes. Many of the units that sell are the ones with the best views and the finest features. In happier days (for sellers) these would have sold at higher prices. That makes the market look stronger than it actually is.
Too, condo developers, like their counterparts among single-family house builders, will offer inducements to buyers that, effectively, lower condo prices without showing up in the stats.
Miller argues that the condo market is too different from the rest of the housing market to be a viable stand-in for it. He says, “Because of the investor component, condo prices show more volatility.”
#287 Home Seller,
I asked you a question first and for some reason you are backing away from answering it. Are you afraid of your predictions?
Do you really feel 5-15% discount is the bottom? If you feel 5-15% is the bottom then can you please post a reply to my questions in #259?
As a courtesy i will answer your question. i will continue to rent as long as affordability levels continue to be way beyond historic levels.
Richard,
post 268 says “house would’ve sold fairly quickly about a year ago for $625k. today it’s fairly priced for a 7% discount. now if you go back another 6-12 months maybe it would’ve bid up to $640k ”
post 289 says
“i thought it was assumed i’m talking about prior sold properties and what their original asking price and adjustments were before sold”
Go back to post 268 and show me where you listed ‘real’ original asking price and adjustments before sold”
I thought we considered real sale prices as ‘data points’ and not some hypothetical averages.
Did anyone else notice that the listing for the house in Madison that lily posted a zillion posts ago described the house as a 5 years young colonial but the pictures bear a 1/1/97 date stamp?
http://forum.brokeroutpost.com/loans/forum/2/86687.htm
It looks like Fremont which is one of the top 3 subprime lenders has tightened lending standards this month.
#291
I honestly believe prices will drop another 10% maximum from where they are now. NJ has historically been pretty high in foreclosures compared to the rest of the country. Does my prediction mean anything? Of course not! Just like your prediction…it doesn’t mean anything because no one knows has a crystal ball.
Ok, I believe I answered your question, now for the 3RD time, will you fully answer my question? So you say you will rent for as long as affordability levels continue to be way beyond historic levels. Are you married/single? Do you have a family? Will you buy or continue to hold out if prices do not come down another 30% like you predicted? If your prediction does not come to fruition, will you move out of the state? Will you be content renting for another 10-20 years (possibility if levels do not come down to your affordability levels..) What is your tipping point?
It would be nice to have some balance from you, so will you please answer these direct questions?
its getting late so I’ll take this up tomorrow
Finally… snow down here. Well, the first bad traffic day on Rt. 1 all year. Can’t complain, I guess. Better go get bread. Why do they do that around here, anyway? Nobody ever had to go get bread when it started snowing in Buffalo.
Responding to Home Seller 295 (sometimes it does help when you repeat things…more people may pick it up), I’m not waiting for an exact percentage off 2005 peak prices. We’re still renting because it makes sense for our specific financial situation. It would be nice to see prices go back in line with the historic trend, because I’d get that warm & fuzzy feeling that “all’s right with the world.” Not sure I’ll wait that long.
There will be a point, maybe a year from now, when prices are lower..maybe another 10-15%.
We could buy earlier, or even later. It will not be the perfect calculation of rent versus own, but it will be closer to the Golden Ratio than it is now. Other factors will come into play, such as tax code changes and investment results, that may push the rent/own calc one way or the other. Or, we just may find that one special seller, with the right house, who takes our first offer.
Home Seller #297,
Of course my predictions don’t matter and nither does yours but the gut in me tells another 15% and you seem to think that the prices will go down another 10%. On an average you are expecting a 15-25% drop from 2005 prices and i expect at least 25% off. Will you buy now when the gut in you says another 10% drop in the next year?
“Will you buy or continue to hold out if prices do not come down another 30% like you predicted? ”
I don’t remember having said ‘another 30%’.
All i said was 25-30% off peak. Can you point me to a post where i was looking for 25-30% off Jan 2007 prices??
” So you say you will rent for as long as affordability levels continue to be way beyond historic levels. Are you married/single? Do you have a family? ”
I am married. We have a toddler. Sometime back, my sister asked our daughter to push us into buying a house. My daughter told my sister “it’s too much money”. My sister went “you are probably right”.
I’m not making this story up. Wife thinks we can wait for at least 2 more years.
“Just like the guy who said “don’t believe your lying eyes”!
Tar Heel,
How about the Eagles;
“You can’t hide those lyin eyes.”
Before I get bombarded, I agree with Richard. I also like GE,longer term, not a buy and flip stock. Thet are kicking *ss overseas. For the first time ever, 50% of their business comes from overseas. That being said, if emerging markets hiccup??
Again not a recommendation, just an observation.
Now we have a Blue Devil and a Tar Heel. You thought the discussion on RE was passionate????
more on #297 – Home seller,
“NJ has historically been pretty high in foreclosures compared to the rest of the country.”
NJ has never experienced such high levels of exotic mortgage consumption and mortgage resets like we will experience this year. The current levels are unprecedented and therefore historically trends in this case may not be reliable.
F*&^%#$ng Dukie on the board! There goes the neighborhood.
What can you say about a school the size of a community college, surrounded by blight, that charges twice the going rate of comparable schools, has pretty much deep-sixed its entire sports program for basketball, and only accepts students who show up for the interview having not bathed in a week (yet show a proclivity for immediately turning into snarling, antisocial primates the minute they’re away from Mom & Dad)?
BTW, Coach K is a phony, Paulus can’t shoot and McRoberts reminds NO ONE of McHale. You can pencil in two VERY ugly losses to us right now. I see a 5-seed and a quick exit in March.
At least we’ll never see anyone from NC State here. They can’t read or write.
But, hey, they can fix tractors like nobody’s business.
Tar Heel,
Harsh words for the Cameron Crazies???
Richard Says:
January 18th, 2007 at 11:56 pm
>>I do not endorse these stocks
chicago i’ll see you here at the end of the year and we’ll look at what the stock is today versus then. then we’ll see who was right.
Reech: I wasn’t slamming the stocks. It is a disclaimer. I have to be careful. Sorry for the confusion.
Wow, over 300 posts on a weekday. I just want to second Pat’s thinking – we’ll buy maybe this year, maybe in a year, or maybe when we find that right house we can be in for the long term. But I’m not paying 200K more for some dump that someone else bought in ’05, nor will I feed into a stupid realtor-induced bidding war, because there are so many homes out there (and anyone who does is just completely idiotic). Those things are not going to happen.
However, I am confident there are some intelligent people out there who bought a while ago, are maybe moving somewhere cheaper and are more willing to negotiate. I also don’t need a sparkling new place – I’m happy to rip out someone’s heinous ’80s carpeting and chintz wallpaper.
Clotpoll
Thats because North Carolina doesnt have locals they are all former NJ, NY, PA, OH, residents like myself.
Maybe it should be called New York South instead of North Carolina?
I love watching reality shows like the simple life and trading spouses when its Jersey residents especially being a former resident. If you havent seen those episodes then I suggest you do because I wouldnt be bragging about NJ over those in NC. Of course every state has some real winners. Except in NC they have manners.
You would be surprised. NJ might think NC is full of hicks but I was sitting in downtown charlotte and heard someone say she must be from Jersey. How can you tell. The Big Hair. Wont be long before the mullet state of PA starts making fun of NJ.
And why does every Italian from NJ think they are in the Mafia? Do you know who I am? LOL.