December Existing Home Sales

The National Association of Realtors (NAR) December Existing Home Sales (EHS) data is due out at 10:00am EST this morning.

The December release can be found here:

December Existing Home Sales

November EHS came in at a seasonally adjusted annual 6.28M, consensus estimates put the December number at 6.30M.

From the AP:

Sales of Existing Homes Fall in December

Sales of existing homes fell in December, closing out a year in which demand for homes slumped by the largest amount in 24 years.

The National Association of Realtors reported that sales of existing homes were down 0.8 percent last month, a bigger decline than had been expected. For the year, sales fell by 8.4 percent, the biggest annual decline since 1982, when existing home sales fell by 17.7 percent in the midst of a severe recession.

The sales figure underscored the sharp contraction that is going on in the once high-flying housing market, which before last year had set sales records for five straight years.

Even with the sharp drop in sales last year, the median price of an existing home sold in 2006 managed to rise a slight 1.1 percent. But that was far below the double-digit gains during the boom years. The median home price had risen by 12.4 percent in 2005.

From Bloomberg:

U.S. Existing Home Sales Fell 0.8% in December to 6.22 Mln Rate

Sales of previously owned homes in the U.S. declined in December after increases the prior two months that pointed to a gradual improvement in the housing market. Sales for all of 2006 fell by the most in 24 years.

Purchases dropped 0.8 percent last month to an annual rate of 6.22 million, from 6.27 million in November, the National Association of Realtors said today in Washington. December sales fell 7.9 percent compared with a year earlier.

Resales were expected to drop 0.5 percent to a 6.25 million annual rate from November’s originally reported 6.28 million, according to the median of 65 forecasts in a Bloomberg News survey. Estimates ranged from 6 million to 6.4 million.

For the year, 6.48 million existing homes were sold, down 8.4 percent from 2005. The decline was the biggest since 1982.

The median price of an existing home last month was unchanged from a year ago at $222,000, the Realtors group said. For the year, the median resale price averaged $222,000, an increase of 1.1 percent from 2005.

This entry was posted in Economics. Bookmark the permalink.

218 Responses to December Existing Home Sales

  1. James Bednar says:

    Yet another homebuilder reports a loss, from the AP this morning:

    Beazer Homes Slides to 1Q Loss

    Home builder Beazer Homes USA Inc. said Thursday lower revenue and hefty charges drove the company to a fiscal first-quarter loss from year-ago profit, and noted it has “yet to see any meaningful evidence of a sustainable recovery in the housing market.”

    Losses for the quarter ended Dec. 31 totaled $59 million, or $1.54 per share, compared with a profit of $89.9 million, or $2 per share, a year ago. Excluding charges to cover inventory writedowns and forfeited deposits on land options, adjusted net income totaled $15.9 million, or 41 cents per share, in the latest period.

    “Operating conditions remained extremely challenging for the housing industry during our first quarter of fiscal 2007,” said President and Chief Executive Ian J. McCarthy. “Most markets across the country continue to experience lower levels of demand for new homes, high cancellation rates and significant levels of discounting.”

    Total quarterly home closings of 2,660 fell 31 percent year-over-year and net new home orders of 1,779 homes were down 54 percent, due to reduced demand across the company’s markets and a 43 percent cancellation rate — compared with historically normal levels of 26 percent.

    Looking ahead, the company said the current market environment continues to be characterized by weak demand, with heavy discounting required to drive meaningful sales volume.

  2. njrebear says:

    http://money.cnn.com/2007/01/25/news/companies/ford_loss/index.htm?cnn=yes

    A dubious record at Ford
    Automaker’s fourth quarter loss much worse than forecasts as annual shortfall (12 billion!!!) roars past company record; larger operating losses in 2007.

  3. James Bednar says:

    From Reuters:

    Shaken subprime credit on path to renewal

    Wall Street is taking a cautiously optimistic stance on subprime mortgage credit for the new year after being surprised by deterioration of the riskiest home loans produced in 2006.

    A surge in defaults on last year’s loans from abnormally low levels in 2003-2005 came as subprime underwriters loosened underwriting standards to maintain volume in a shrinking market. The loans, most of which are collateral for the $575 billion home-equity asset-backed bond market, are being returned to lenders by investors at alarming rates, hurting profits, analysts said. The weakest lenders failed or are up for sale.

    “The amount of bad loans put back have taught a lesson” to the underwriters, said Scott Eichel, head of asset-backed securities trading at Bear Stearns, at a conference last week. Bear Stearns is “pretty bullish” on 2007 credit because of better underwriting and a surplus of cash seeking yield, he said.

    Defaults on subprime loans in 2006 were rising at a rate near 6 percent, more than twice that of 2005 and making last year one of the worst in terms of credit quality, according to UBS Securities. As much as 5 percent of a typical subprime deal is tainted by defaults in the first few months of a loan, compared with 1.5 percent to 3 percent in 2005, the firm said in a research note.

    Investors are waiting for hard data to show that tighter underwriting will result in fewer defaults. House price gains that had boosted borrower equity have stalled, hurting homeowners’ ability to avoid higher payments by refinancing to a new loan. Most subprime loans are adjustable after two or three years.

    Home prices will probably decline nationally in 2007 before rebounding in 2008 and 2009, according to Moody’s Economy.com.

    “Based on what we are hearing about tightening guidelines and some hard lessons learned by certain originators, you could argue that the 2007 vintage will perform better than 2006,” said Brian Vonderhorst, an analyst at Standard & Poor’s, which has increased credit enhancement requirements. “But there are many variables that could change that view.”

  4. pesche22 says:

    f is finished in its current form.
    jag, and rover will be gone.

  5. James Bednar says:

    Would anyone like to offer up their prediction for the EHS numbers this morning?

    jb

  6. Thursday January 25, 7:18 am ET
    Existing Home Sales, More Earnings Likely to Keep Homebuilder Stocks in Investor Spotlight

    NEW YORK (AP) — Homebuilders are likely to stay in the spotlight Thursday when the National Association of Realtors releases December data on existing-home sales.
    Investors will also get their first opportunity to trade shares of Meritage Homes Corp. and Ryland Group Inc., both of which reported earnings after the closing bell Wednesday.

    Meritage said fourth-quarter earnings declined 91 percent, due to charges and record numbers of home cancellations. Ryland’s fourth-quarter profit fell 46 percent, as the homebuilder recorded fewer closings amid a slumping U.S. housing market, but results still surpassed Wall Street’s expectations.

    Earlier this week D.R. Horton Inc., the nation’s largest builder by deliveries, reported a sharp profit decline and Centex Corp. posted a quarterly loss.

    Existing home sales are forecast to fall modestly after gains in both October and November. That was the first back-to-back increase since spring 2005, right before the sector peaked after five years of record sales for both new and previously owned homes.

    Having slumped badly in 2006, the sector is feeling for the bottom. A modest drop in existing-home sales would help show some stability.

    The real estate trade group will also report the year-over-year change in median home prices, which fell in November for the fourth consecutive month.

    Demand for existing homes has declined as mortgage rates move higher from the historic lows that helped fuel the boom era. Although 30-year rates have fallen since a peak in June, there is still a glut of unsold homes on the market that has forced prices lower.

  7. BC Bob says:

    6.21

  8. RentinginNJ says:

    Would anyone like to offer up their prediction for the EHS numbers this morning?

    I expect they will be on-target due to a milder than normal December (would have been lower otherwise), more inventory than normal for December and some seller concessions. The NAR will point to this as a sign of “stabilization” and reiterate their expectation for a pickup in the market later this year.

  9. James Bednar says:

    I expect much of the same behavior that we’ve seen earlier this year. December EHS to come in under consensus estimates of 6.30M, however, December numbers will be higher than the downward adjusted November numbers.

    Should the EHS and NHS numbers beat consensus estimates, look for the 10Y yield to move up into the 4.9% range and retest the 5-6 month highs.

    jb

  10. Richard says:

    the soft landing evidence continues to mount.

  11. BC Bob says:

    “the soft landing evidence continues to mount.”

    Richard,

    Relay this insight to the H-B’s. Their recent releases are abysmal, at best. I’m sure they will take solace in your opinion. They state there is no end in sight. Please provide your supporting data that contradicts them.

    If you are referring to the economy, a soft landing for corp’s or John Q worker???

    How did you like my corroborated chart???

  12. njrebear says:

    I think price will be the surprise element in EHS release.

  13. James Bednar says:

    Is this new bifurcated economy to be expected? Autos and Housing are in a decline while the rest of the economy shines. It it due to the fact that housing and autos are both largely credit-dependent? Is the decline in the auto sector nothing more than the shaking off the last vestiges of our manufacturing economy? Is the consumer finally tapped out, reducing purchases of what are typically the two most expensive purchases they’ll ever make?

    jb

  14. SG says:

    Real estate: Who’s buying now?
    Wednesday January 24, 11:19 am ET
    By Les Christie, CNNMoney.com staff writer

    “The biggest group of home buyers by far is still married couples, accounting for 61 percent of all homes bought, according to the National Association of Realtors. But single-women now purchase 22 percent of all homes. Single men accounted for only 9 percent of purchases.”

    http://biz.yahoo.com/cnnm/070124/012307_new_real_estate_buyers.html?.v=1&.pf=real-estate

  15. AntiTrump says:

    I predict a slight uptick in volume and a down tick in median price, given the lows we had in mortgage rates in the last couple of weeks and a lowering of asking prices.

    i.e a small dead cat bounce !

  16. bergenbubbleburst says:

    ricahrd; Perhaps you can point to another example of soft landing from the past. You know one that has happened before.

    Our belief in prices droping, had far more precedent, than your hope for a soft landing.

  17. AntiTrump says:

    #30 JB

    80% of the economy is services that’s why the housing/manufacturing slow down hasn’t impacted the larger economy as much.

  18. BC Bob says:

    A little different point of view as compared to Richard. Some do believe that the problems with our “corroborated” dollar may have serious consequences.

    “U.S. stocks are vulnerable to a decline in the dollar because it would weaken corporate earnings and “really blow up” the market’s four-year rally, billionaire investor Carl Icahn said.”

    http://www.bloomberg.com/apps/news?pid=20601109&sid=apfVIpE1wPRs&refer=home

  19. Richard says:

    bob, your comex chart doesn’t corroborate anything. you said savvy investors are selling dollars and buying gold. gold going up doesn’t imply anyone being savvy. were homebuyers from 2000 to say 2004 savvy because prices went up? you and others here have consistently said no. same logic. your mouth is awaiting your foot.

  20. 2008 Buyer says:

    6.32

    A better question would be…how many people thinks Lereah will put a positive spin on the data regradless of what it’s saying?

  21. AntiTrump says:

    #19 BC Bob:

    Carl Icahn ? What the hell does he know?

    Richard is da man ! Remember his *freinds* are up 15% after buying homes last year.

  22. mifune says:

    Sales and inventory down in Dec. 0.8 & 7.9 respectively.

  23. mifune says:

    Median price unchanged y/y @ $222K – 8.4% slip for all of 06 – biggest since `82.

  24. DE says:

    A coworker of mine wanted to know what kind of loan he could get for a home purchase over the next year or two and some banks he called said if needed they could get him 100% or even 110% financing. I can’t believe this is still going on does anyone have any idea why this type of dangerouse lending in continuing?

  25. SM says:

    Just heard this on bloomberg radio. NAR just released the exisintg home sales data. Sale were down 0.9% for december after 2 months increase. Total sales in whole of 2006 were down most in 24 years.

  26. AntiTrump says:

    #DE:

    Your coworker can get 100 or even 110% financing. These kinds of products are still available. However they are a lot more costlier than in the last two years. This will be an expensive loan.

  27. mifune says:

    does anyone have any idea why this type of dangerouse lending in continuing?
    My guess is that without it there would be very little volume at all.

  28. RentinginNJ says:

    80% of the economy is services that’s why the housing/manufacturing slow down hasn’t impacted the larger economy as much.

    Also, much of our economy is driven by consumer spending. Consumers will continue to spend as long as they think everything is fine. A stock portfolio, unlike housing, is marked to market; when the market takes a hit, you know it immediately and the wealth effect driving spending diminishes quickly.

    With housing, many people don’t know they lost value until they try to sell it. For most people listening to the 11:00 news and hearing the regurgitated NAR press releases, the housing prices are just moderating; taking a little breather before returning to normal, nothing to worry about.

    I will take a while for consumer spending to reflect the housing downturn.

  29. NJGal says:

    Richard said:
    “the soft landing evidence continues to mount.”

    I say. that’s a generalized uncorroborated and subjective statement.

  30. BC Bob says:

    “bob, your comex chart doesn’t corroborate anything”

    Richard,

    You would be right if the market was supported by hel’s.

    I guess you can state the same regarding the dollar. Chirp,chirp,chirp.

    By the way, 2006 existing homes sales; worst in 24 years, Dec worst than expected. I remember you stated the new homes sales were not the proper barometer since they represented approx 15%. How do you respond to worst existing home sales in 24 years??? By the way, “corroborated”.

    Chirp,chirp,chirp.

  31. National Association of Realtors Propaganda Ministry says:

    We would like to report that the market has for the twelfth time in the last 6 months has in fact hit bottom.

    Please ignore the huge supply of unsold new and existing homes.

    Please disregard the massive increase in foreclosures.

    Please be blissfully ignorant of the sub-prime meltdown.

    Thank you for your gullibility.

    The time to buy and invest is now.

    Flip away. Housing is a great investment.

  32. Lindsey says:

    The report is out, but I haven’t seen it, so I’m going to make my callout.

    6.18annual adjusted. Sorry, BC, I’m a bigger bear than you.

    Actual sales reported 430K

  33. James Bednar says:

    BC Bob Says:
    January 25th, 2007 at 8:26 am
    6.21

    We have a winner.

    jb

  34. ADA says:

    http://money.cnn.com/2007/01/25/news/economy/home_sales/index.htm

    NEW YORK (CNNMoney.com) — Home sales saw the biggest drop in 24 years last year, according to a trade group report on the battered real estate market, but the reading also showed the the decline in home prices may have bottomed out in December.

  35. clayton says:

    January 2007
    “It appears we have established a bottom,”

    December 2006
    “As the housing market recovers from its correction, existing-home sales should be rising gradually during 2007 – it looks like we may have reached the low point for the current cycle in September,”

    November 2006
    “The present level of home sales demonstrates some confidence in the market, but sales are lower than sustainable due to psychological factors,”

    October 2006
    “Considering that existing-home sales are based on closed transactions, this is a lagging indicator and the worst is behind us as far as a market correction – this is likely the trough for sales,”

  36. njrebear says:

    Here is optimisum fo you –

    Mr Liereah –
    “With fingers and toes crossed, it appears that we have hit bottom in the existing home market,” he said.

    http://biz.yahoo.com/ap/070125/economy.html?.v=10

  37. James Bednar says:

    Lets take a look at nonadjusted sales year over year.

    December sales down 10.8% year over year on a non-adjusted basis:

    Dec ’05 – 527,000NSA
    Dec ’06 – 470,000NSA
    (Down 10.8% YOY)

    December YOY
    Northeast – Down 8.1%
    Midwest – Down 10.3%
    South – Down 9.3%
    West – Down 16.4%

    Inventory up 23.3% year over year, Supply up 33.3% year over year.

    Is this really a sign of “bottoming”?

    jb

  38. lisoosh says:

    Loved the title and subtitle of this Newsweek piece:

    “Escape From the Money Pit
    Home buyers thought they could put their house under their pillow and let the tooth fairy raise its value while they slept. Too bad.

    By Jane Bryant Quinn
    Newsweek”

    http://www.msnbc.msn.com/id/16720755/site/newsweek/

  39. Lindsey says:

    Re JB’s questions in post 13:

    This is not an original thought, but I think there’s a real problem in how economic stats are reported, in that it does not capture distribution of gains, under reports inflation, and fails to capture the true employment picture.

    The problem with distribution of gains is that as the mix has changed (greater corporate profits, lower wage gains) there was no way to capture the effects of the change. By all accounts consumers have kept up their buying level with increased borrowing, not earnings or income. As that move reaches its climax (and really hasn’t it gone on longer than anyone could imagine?)a slowdown is inevitable, i.e. the consumer is indeed tapped out.

    I think the details of the under reporting of inflation have been detailed enough so I’m not going to get into that, suffice to say, there is a lot of evidence.

    Finally, while there is plenty of small manufacturing going on, there seems to be four big sectors of manufacturing left in this country: Houses, cars, movies, and airplanes.

    It is quite obvious to everyone here that housing manufacturing is slowing down. If you’ve been following autos for the last few years you would know that is another industry which saw a record run-up during that time. Considering the increased durability of autos, much like housing I think they are now facing supply/demand issues (that’s why there are always incentives).

    Boeing seems to be doing great and the movie industry is generally underestimated as a source of foreign revenue in this country (last I recall, its export value wasn’t even properly accounted for.

    Credit is still incredibly loose and there is still an insane amount of liquidity in the system, but I think the imbalances in wealth distribution are finally starting to take a toll on economic activity.

  40. Today, Thu, Jan 25, 2007
    • BZH NVR Beazer Homes swings to loss; housing recovery not yet in sight
    at MarketWatch (Thu 10:30am)
    • NVR NVR 4Q Profit Falls
    AP (Thu 10:23am)
    • RYL Ryland Takes Optimistic Stance
    at TheStreet.com (Thu 10:21am)
    • HD W.R. Grace sales rise but legal costs drag down earnings
    bizjournals.com (Thu 10:12am)
    • CTX DHI KBH LEN PHM TOL Home sales plunged in ’06, but prices may have hit bottom.
    at CNNMoney.com (Thu 10:12am)
    • MTH Meritage Homes Corporation Earnings Call scheduled for 10:00 am ET today
    CCBN (Thu 10:00am)
    • BZH Beazer Homes Slides to 1Q Loss
    AP (Thu 9:59am)
    • RYL New Star Analyst Rankings for RYLAND GROUP INC
    StarMine (Thu 9:58am)
    • NVR Home builder NVR’s net falls 39%
    at MarketWatch (Thu 9:51am)
    • NVR NVR Q4 earnings fall
    at Reuters (Thu 9:34am)
    • NVR InPlay: NVR misses by $0.72
    Briefing.com (Thu 9:09am)
    • HD Outlook 2007: Interview with Linda Kaplan Thaler
    at Fortune (Thu 9:02am)
    • BZH BEAZER HOMES USA INC Files SEC form 8-K, Results of Operations and Financial Condition, Financial Statements and Exhi
    EDGAR Online (Thu 9:00am)
    • FNM Fannie Mae Redemption
    PR Newswire (Thu 9:00am)
    • HD Home Depot’s Newfound Austerity
    at BusinessWeek Online (Thu 8:08am)
    • CTX DHI HOV LEN MTH RYL TOL Ahead of the Bell: Homebuilders
    AP (Thu 7:18am)
    • BZH Beazer Home revises profit outlook, posts quarterly net loss
    at MarketWatch (Thu 6:31am)
    • BZH Beazer Homes Reports Fiscal First Quarter 2007 Financial Results
    Business Wire (Thu 6:15am)
    • KBH KB HOME Files SEC form 8-K, Change in Directors or Principal Officers
    EDGAR Online (Thu 6:00am)
    Wed, Jan 24, 2007
    • HD LOW [$$] Home Depot CEO Takes Stand on Pay
    at The Wall Street Journal Online (Wed 11:11pm)
    • HD LOW [$$] Lowe’s Expansion PlansNow Include Mexico
    at The Wall Street Journal Online (Wed 10:53pm)
    • DHI [$$] Housing Glut Gives Buyers Upper Hand
    at The Wall Street Journal Online (Wed 10:40pm)
    • CTX MTH RYL Earnings drop at home builders Ryland, Meritage
    at MarketWatch (Wed 6:37pm)
    • DHI Centex Shares Slump on Loss, Outlook
    AP (Wed 6:32pm)
    • MTH Meritage Posts Steep Profit Drop

  41. Richard says:

    excerpts from latest data. the sky is falling prediction has failed to materialize yet again. even with the worst housing sales market in 24 years the median still went up. ok let’s hear how the median isn’t represented and it takes years to play out and blah blah blah.

    >>Even with the sharp drop in sales last year, the median price of an existing home sold in 2006 managed to rise a slight 1.1 percent

    >>But economists said they believe the low point for housing has been reached and they are forecasting a slow rebound in 2007. Because of that optimism, analysts don’t believe the slump in housing will drag the overall economy into a recession.

  42. njrebear says:

    Jobless claims rise to 16-month high

    http://news.yahoo.com/s/ap/20070125/ap_on_bi_go_ec_fi/economy

    The Labor Department reported Thursday that 325,000 newly laid-off workers filed claims for jobless benefits last week, an increase of 36,000 from the previous week.

    The increase of 36,000 was bigger than the 20,000 rise that had been forecast.

    Based on past trends, claims numbers often surge in third week of the month as retail businesses shed seasonal workers hired to help with the crush of holiday shoppers. However, this year, the layoffs were much higher than in past years.

    >>
    I don’t know much about these job numbers but the fact is that we addded 167K jobs in December but lost 325k jobs last week. How can that be good?

  43. James Bednar says:

    the sky is falling prediction has failed to materialize yet again.

    Who, exactly, made this prediction?

    jb

  44. NJGal says:

    Richard, before you post quotes about the bottom, perhaps you should re-read Clayton’s post at #32. Now how many times have they called this?

    Also, tell me this – how thrilled will you be with your purchase if the median price continues to rise at the phenomenal rate of 1.1% for the next few years?

  45. Lindsey says:

    But the trade group reported that the median home price in December was $222,000, unchanged from a year earlier.

    “It looks like we’re moving beyond the low for the housing cycle last fall, and buyers are responding to historically low interest rates and competitive pricing by home sellers,” said a statement from David Lereah, the Realtors’ chief economist. “In addition, a tightening inventory of homes on the market is supporting prices.”

    This is the first run for the story, so I’m not going to be too hard on CNN’s reporting, just let me point out that if the median price remains the same, there is nothing indicating that pricing has become more competitive.
    Also, as Grim so aptly noted, it’s awfully difficult to see how inventory 23 percent higher than a year earlier can be called “tightening.”

    Particularly in the face of even lower sales.

    If you add in the context that even the NAR predicts lower sales in 07 than 06, (and the numbers indicate much higher inventory) there seems to be an awful lot of pricing pressure waiting in the wings.

    Finally, I know it’s Lereah, but it’s still disgusting that CNN allows the annual removal of homes from the market during the holidays to even be considered a legitimate drop in inventory.

  46. Richard says:

    >>Also, tell me this – how thrilled will you be with your purchase if the median price continues to rise at the phenomenal rate of 1.1% for the next few years?

    doesn’t bother me. in fact i expect something like that, maybe a bit better. on a $500k house where you take out a $400k loan you pay off 1% of the principal the first year and it keeps going up year after year. yes i know the $100k downpayment isn’t working for you in other ways and there’s upkeep and stuff but buying a house isn’t a purely financial play for those who aren’t investors.

  47. lisoosh says:

    About 30% of the inventory in areas I watch suddenly dropped off the MLS in 2 days.

    Pre Superbowl refresh?

  48. James Bednar says:

    What about inflation? CPI Less Shelter for December (CPI-U, year over year, unadjusted) was 1.8%.

    If we adjust that 1.1% median price gain for inflation, we actually have real prices falling 0.7% year over year in December.

    jb

  49. RentinginNJ says:

    But economists said they believe the low point for housing has been reached and they are forecasting a slow rebound in 2007. Because of that optimism, analysts don’t believe the slump in housing will drag the overall economy into a recession.

    “Economists” have been calling the bottom every month now for a year. Why should this time be any different?

  50. njrebear says:

    Median price is not going down because “condo and townhouses” sales rate is worse than SFH sales rate.

  51. Richard says:

    >>Who, exactly, made this prediction?

    jim, don’t make me sludge through past postings. you have a contingent of readers here looking for doomsday. not your fault, it’s the nature of the topic.

  52. RentLord says:

    Richard, how’s your job hunt going?

  53. Al says:

    I think with the sales report and jobless clain coming in I will postpone my home search at least untill fall…….. unles my first offer will get accepted that is. However I doubt it that the owners will accept it – we will know by monday, as it was quite a lowball on a lower priced fixer-upper and the offer was “Ridiculously low” according to the seller’s agent, who still submited it to the seller….

    But now I m starting to think that it might not have been low enough…

    My favorite quote from the link at the start of the page:

    David Lereah, chief economist for the Realtors, said that even with the December setback, he still believes that sales of existing homes have hit bottom and will start to gradually improve.

    He said that in 2005, 40 percent of the market represented purchases of second homes and investors buying homes looking to resell them for quick profits.

    He said that speculators had now left the market and that should leave sales at a more sustainable level.

    “With fingers and toes crossed, it appears that we have hit bottom in the existing home market,” he said.

    Another bottom call!!!

  54. Richard says:

    >>If we adjust that 1.1% median price gain for inflation, we actually have real prices falling 0.7% year over year in December.

    sure, but what does that really mean to most folks particularly if you plan on remaining somewhere a while? i just don’t see it. i’m sure one could concoct a case where you could come out ahead on a comparison basis but for most of us here it doesn’t seem substantial enough long term. just my opinion.

  55. National Association of Realtors Propaganda Ministry says:

    Existing-home sales fell 8 tenths of a percent in December from November to an annual rate of 6.22 mln.

    Sales for all of 2006 dropped by 8.4% to 6.48 million for the largest drop in 24 years.

    What’s really amazing is the truly horrible spinmeister they have at the National Association of Realtors – David Lereah, the chief economist of the NAR. With today release he says, “Despite all the doom and gloom stories and dire predictions over the last year, 2006 was the third strongest year on record for existing home sales.” That guy is a bum. 3rd strongest year? Tell that to the millions who tried selling a home last year – it was generally an ordeal. Third strongest year? Tell that to the millions who ensnared themselves in ARMs that will soon reset and send them into foreclosure. Third strongest year? Use that to comfort the CEO of Beazer Homes (BZH) which reported a loss this morning. Beazer’s CEO reports no indication of a meaningful housing recovery.

    http://buttonwood1792.blogspot.com/

  56. James Bednar says:

    “With fingers and toes crossed, it appears that we have hit bottom in the existing home market,” he said.

    Can’t believe that Lereah would actually make a comment like that. When I first read it, I thought it was a joke.

    jb

  57. Richard says:

    rentlord normally i wouldn’t bother responding to assertions from people like you but we can’t have you misrepresenting. i own a couple of rentals which i wouldn’t think of selling for 20 years but aside from that and my primary residence i have no other involvement in real estate.

  58. NJGal says:

    So you say it doesn’t bother you now, but what if there is actual depreciation or flattening for a wya longer than you plan? And I know you say you plan to remain, but the best laid plans gang aft agley, or so they say…

  59. MovingBackAtTheBottom says:

    Were these houses based on comps from over a year ago? Does this mean that similar houses have dropped 100+K in a year. And you will be surprised to see what these houses are listing at. I will give you a hint, its no where near a million dollars.

    2298102 – 110k drop from OLP

    2303271 – 100k drop from OLP

    2270294 – 105k drop from OLP

    I don’t believe it will take years for this market to correct. There is enough information on the net to have this market correct in a year or two. It doesn’t take a genius to figure out how much appreciation is fair by taking pre-boom prices and applying that fair appreciation to 2007-2008. All the data is at our fingertips (zillow, trulia). The economy is healthy and interest rates are still low. What we have now are speculators out of the market while the rest are holding bags; and by speculators I mean 21-year old supermarket clerks with 450 credit scores with a mix seriously spinelss buyers believing the hype.
    Be educated, do the math, it’s simple. All of us “educated buyers” took finance in college. However, don’t be caught catching the falling knife because of emotion or propoganda, offer smart and we will be able to buy in no time. Lowball, lowball, lowball. It not offensive especially when they are trying to highball the sh*t out of you. They are offending your intelligence;
    About Me: 27, married, no kids, no debt, 120k gross, still renting, still crunching numbers.

    And for all of you defensive homeowners, don’t be so offended that we suggest your house price is dropping, if you have lived there for a long time it is mearly returning back to normal, it was never a piggy bank. For all of those who recently purchased, what were you thinking or what were you no thinking. Of course you can say I am saying this in hindsight, but just wait until all those yuppies in the NYC metro area who have been stupid paying rent, sweep those houses out from beneath you. And once again the educated get richer. Coincidence, no just educated people making educated purchases.

  60. Lindsey says:

    Adding…

    Considering the last few years, it is no longer legitimate to use the phrase “historically low interest rates.”

    While the rate is low in comparison to most eras, because rates were as good or better during the last 36 months, it should be clear that the ability of the interest rate to spur demand is somewhat limited. Rates are still accommodative, to use the Fed’s terminology but, due to recent rate history, less of a factor.

  61. dreamtheaterr says:

    Is this new bifurcated economy to be expected? Autos and Housing are in a decline while the rest of the economy shines. It it due to the fact that housing and autos are both largely credit-dependent? Is the decline in the auto sector nothing more than the shaking off the last vestiges of our manufacturing economy? Is the consumer finally tapped out, reducing purchases of what are typically the two most expensive purchases they’ll ever make?

    jb

    My take is that too much of ‘future’ demand was fulfilled with the proliferation of exotic loans for mortgages, and 0% financing by Detroit for autos.

    So people refinancing a house, or trading in a car will find themselves upside down. I read somewhere that almost 65-70% of new car loans are >5 year terms. People are stretching a LOT to keep up with the Joneses and drive around in a depreciating asset.

    With the future demand already quenched, there is not enough current demand to absorb a normal supply going forward. How long this takes to play out is anybody’s guess.

  62. Richard says:

    >>but what if there is actual depreciation or flattening for a wya longer than you plan? And I know you say you plan to remain, but the best laid plans gang aft agley, or so they say…

    what if the opposite occurs? you can’t predict the future, no one can, so all you can do is make the best decision given today’s available information and such information will speak to your needs depending on how you interpret it.

  63. RentLord says:

    >> but aside from that and my primary residence

    Richard, negative equity must be really bothering you. Why would you otherwise ignore all the facts and be a cheer-leader for David Liareh?

  64. Richard says:

    MovingBackAtTheBottom, original listing prices mean nothing, it’s sales prices. trend those and see what you get.

  65. NJGal says:

    “what if the opposite occurs? you can’t predict the future, no one can, so all you can do is make the best decision given today’s available information and such information will speak to your needs depending on how you interpret it.”

    I agree you can’t predict the future, but there is very, very little evidence that we will see any kind of decent appreciation for the foreseeable future, at least until incomes catch up, barring any other economic incident. And incomes can’t just appreciate 50% a year thanks to easy credit, so unfortunately I think a long term flat scenario, similar to what happened in the 90s, is the best scenario one can hope for.

  66. Richard says:

    njgal 3 or 4 years ago there was very little evidence comparing incomes and prices to think the house prices would run up as much as they did. my point is you can’t use pure logic when looking at these things. humans don’t necessarily function that way. call it the wisdom or madness of crowds.

  67. Richard says:

    >>Richard, negative equity must be really bothering you. Why would you otherwise ignore all the facts and be a cheer-leader for David Liareh?

    yeah that’s it LOL. i’m so far from negative equity it’s not even worth discussing. i’m not a cheerleader for the NAR i’m just giving you another perspective.

  68. RentLord says:

    I was giving you a benefit of doubt that you must have a motive to go against all the current data. I ignored the ‘stupidity’ factor! sorry!

  69. MJ says:

    we had a miraculous year. No hurricane, very warm winter, hence low inflation pressure.
    There is only one way for oil/fed rates to go.. and its up.
    Even if the Fed rates dont go up, there is only one way for mortgage rates to go.. up ..
    because right now they are well below prime.
    Housing will bleed in 2007.

  70. James Bednar says:

    10y move this morning is a bit surprising..

    Currently sitting at 4.85%, highest interday since mid-August, give or take a bip.

    jb

  71. NJGal says:

    “njgal 3 or 4 years ago there was very little evidence comparing incomes and prices to think the house prices would run up as much as they did. my point is you can’t use pure logic when looking at these things. humans don’t necessarily function that way. call it the wisdom or madness of crowds.”

    But logic will always prevail and madness of the crowd can turn as quickly in the other direction. I believe they’ll make the turnaround eventually, although it will take a decent amount of time. And if there was nothing in incomes 4 years ago to make anyone think this would happen, there is no fundamental reason for it to happen. You can talk about low rates all you want, but incomes are what it will come down to in the end, and they just can’t catch up fast enough to save many who bought in the recent past.

  72. Rich In NNJ says:

    FYI
    In Bergen County for 2006, I’m seeing y-o-y declines in prices starting in September (SFH, Condo, Co-op & twnhs) after prices peaked in August.

  73. bergenbubbleburst says:

    I think I am going to renew my membership in the LOD’s.

  74. lowball says:

    from David Liareah’s Jan 2008 “It appears we have established a bottom (again)” speech:

    “With fingers, toes and eyes crossed …”

    ——————-
    “He [‘Baghdad David’ Liareah] said that speculators had now left the market”

    What a relief, all that glut gone POOOF!
    Now is a good time to buy!

  75. RentinginNJ says:

    Liareah pointed to tightening inventory as a sign of stabilization. Of course, pointing to signs of stabilization is a requirement for any NAR press release.

    With inventory tightening and sales falling, the reduction in inventory is probably coming from pulled and expired listings, rather than sales (which are down).

    Looks like this is the pullback before the tidal wave of inventory coming this spring.

  76. rhymingrealtor says:

    Re: 100% financing:

    There are a couple posts here about 100% financing, I was about to post some anecdotal stuff about it myself.
    It is all I am seeing. While its my understanding (from this board) that it is harder to obtain, it must be the only type of buyers left. On the opposite is all cash, that has also increased. Possibly downsizing.

    KL

  77. MovingBackAtTheBottom says:

    Richard,

    Someone needs a class on debate as well as reading comprehension.

    “MovingBackAtTheBottom, original listing prices mean nothing, it’s sales prices. trend those and see what you get.”

    The first statement I made was a question.
    “Were these houses (OLP) based on comps from over a year ago?”

    Well were they? And aren’t they supposed to be? Isn’t an educated realtor suppose to suggesting a valid list price?

    Also, if you see a suit on sale at the department store for $500.00 MSRP and it goes on sale for $400.00 and you pay $350.00, are you getting a 25% discount or a 10% discount.

    To me, OLP is MSRP and is dictated by the marekt comps. So if the OLP is 500 and I buy for 350, technically I got a 25% discount based on other houses of similar size, property, etc. in the neighborhood.

    Again this is suggesting that OLP is based on the market and not a ridiculously inflated number. However, notice these houses are all within 10 miles of each other, coincidence, same spineless realtor, same maniacal over pricing homeowner?

    You can put a spin on it however you want, OLP vs. sale, Final Listing price vs. Sale, but what makes sense is OLP is based on comps from the time it goes to market (OLP = Current Market Value at time of listing) (Current Listing Price = adjusted market value).

  78. James Bednar says:

    KL,

    Can you elaborate/clarify?

    jb

  79. Al says:

    It is all I am seeing. While its my understanding (from this board) that it is harder to obtain, it must be the only type of buyers left. On the opposite is all cash, that has also increased. Possibly downsizing

    It is not all the buyers left – it is the buyers who pay nothing to get into the house.

    SO they are not risking 5-20% of their after tax money to buy a house. If you put down 5% on the cheapest house you buy and it goes down 5% or not even goes down – just do not apprecial before you have to sell – you are out of your intitial 5% plus 1% extra (thats assuming only 6% selling costs).

    And 100% or 110% loans are still extremelly easy to get.

    As long as lensers can sell those loans to wall street, wall streeter’s can repack them and sell them to chineese the easy money scheme will continue.

  80. BC Bob says:

    “but buying a house isn’t a purely financial play for those who aren’t investors.”

    Richard,

    Oh really?? It’s only the biggest financial decision most make in their lifetimes. It’s funny we will now be hearing that housing is a lifestyle, shelter and joining a nice lovely community. When the financial aspect of it is doomed, we seem to revert to the early 80’s. Back to the Walton’s???

    What about the $1 trillion of arm’s coming due in 2007??? Isn’t that “financial”, they could not afford low fixed rate financing?? What about the bogus appraisals and the fraudulent applications?? Wasn’t that “financial”??? This whole mania was about “financial”, now the bust, not a falling sky just a RE bust, will also be about “financial”.

  81. chicagofinance says:

    James Bednar Says:
    January 25th, 2007 at 9:24 am
    Autos and Housing are in a decline while the rest of the economy shines.
    jb
    The MICHIGAN BASED Auto industry is in a decline

    Autos are just fine.

  82. gary says:

    With fingers and toes crossed

    This tells me two things: 1) Liarearh has no idea how long and deep this bust will be and 2) He has no clue how those with real data (like on this blog) are exposing him for the shrill that he is. What an idiotic statement.

    And Richard, keep up the posts, you are great entertainment.

  83. lowball says:

    To #81 BC BOOOOYAAAAAAA Bob:

    “What about the $1 trillion of arm’s coming due in 2007???”

    ———————

    “As much as $1.5 trillion in adjustable-rate mortgages are due to have their rates reset this year, according to the Mortgage Bankers Association.”

  84. Clotpoll says:

    Nothing to jack the comment count around here like a crummy housing number! I can feel the joy pouring thru my computer screen. LODs feeding like buzzards on a meatwagon.

    Before everyone pronounces “rolling”, isolated sector recessions as the new economic order of the day, examine the spillover effect of housing & autos on the broader economy. I submit that industries producing tangible goods and driving employment cannot tank in a vacuum.

    The pain you wish upon others may feel different when it hits you in the solar plexus, though. If worthless USDs, inflation, foreclosure and unemployment start to move in lockstep, you won’t be able to hide in your rental-bunkers and laugh at the passing parade. Some part of the fallout is going to singe you (unless you are actively and aggressively short everything you believe to be cratering).

    In the meantime, smart sellers reprice…smart buyers get good deals.

    LOD’s, I’m really with you; watching bad competitors drop like flies is fun (I just found out today a big competitor of mine is up sh*t creek)! Schadenfreude is a very underrated feeling.

  85. RentinginNJ says:

    njgal 3 or 4 years ago there was very little evidence comparing incomes and prices to think the house prices would run up as much as they did. my point is you can’t use pure logic when looking at these things. humans don’t necessarily function that way. call it the wisdom or madness of crowds.

    Human behavior is very predictable over the longer term. Bubbles, manias and “new paradigms” are nothing new. Hundreds of years of economic history, reaching back to the tulip mania of the 1630’s or South Sea bubble of the 1710’s to the recent dot.com meltdown, teaches us that markets are rational and self-correcting. Every bubble in history has experienced a correction.

    Please find me one example in history of a price of something undergoing rapid parabolic growth for reasons that defied logic or fundamentals, where a correction didn’t follow.

  86. BC Bob says:

    Lowball,

    I am not BOOOYAAAA Bob.

  87. lowball says:

    “The pain you wish upon others may feel different when it hits you in the solar plexus, though.”

    Flippers to Clotpoll: Hear, Hear!

  88. BC Bob says:

    “Every bubble in history has experienced a correction”

    RentinginNJ,

    I agree with what you say about predictable human behavoir. Manias swing from irrational back to rational. However, every bubble in history has ended the same, bust. For some of our friends here, this is corroborated.

  89. Richard says:

    >>But logic will always prevail and madness of the crowd can turn as quickly in the other direction. I believe they’ll make the turnaround eventually, although it will take a decent amount of time.

    we’re human beings. we’re not on this planet that long. if you and others want to sit on your hands putting what you want on hold for years and years be my guest as it’s your life. in the meantime others will move forward knowing that they don’t know the future and that sometimes you have to go with what’s best from a macro perspective. sometimes you win, sometimes you lose and that’s true on both sides of the debate.

    i’ll also posit even if people know that in a year or two the home they’re in might be worth the same or less, some would still buy. it’s the key premise of the time value equation and purely dependent on one’s desires.

  90. Richard says:

    bob, if it takes 15 years for the boom bust cycle to play out (assuming you can even recognize it), will you sit by until that time and then buy? i’d love to see this play out in the real world LOL.

    point is everyone has an entry point. most people here want to be homeowners and have some # in their head when they’d enter. is it 10% off today’s prices, 15%, 20%? when will you know when is the best time to buy if your target isn’t met? no one has a crystal ball so think of your own specific needs and act accordingly without feeling like some miscreant bagholder.

  91. NJGal says:

    I agree we may not be on the planet all that long Richard, but you act (or perhaps hope cause it would make you feel good) that the “bubblesitters” are talking 5-10 year waits. That’s just not so,at least not for me, and I don’t feel that waiting a bit longer will kill me. In fact, I think I’ll get a better deal if I wait just a few more months, and in no way does that, for me, mean holding up my life. In the interim, perhaps I’ll purchase a car at a low price from one of our troubled auto makers…

  92. Clotpoll says:

    Reechard (90)-

    A couple of people mentioned here yesterday that they would still buy this year, even if they were to go upside-down for a year or two afterwards.

    Opportunity isn’t there right now for everyone, though. To some, the thought of being upside-down for even one minute causes pangs of terror. In my office, I see this most often in those who have ever had to bring a check to the closing of a sale. I imagine that the feeling this engenders must last a lifetime.

  93. James Bednar says:

    From MarketWatch:

    Fed funds futures see no rate moves through June 2007

    The fed funds futures market now expects interest rates to remain unchanged through the first half of 2007, erasing all expectations of rate cuts. July fed funds were last trading down 0.015 at 94.75, implying zero chance that the Federal Reserve will lower, or raise its target for overnight rates from the current level of 5.25% through the policy setting meeting in late June, vs. a 6% chance of a rate cut late Wednesday. At the end of 2006, the odds of a first-half 2007 rate cut were 48%. Meanwhile, the yield on the 10-year Treasury note was last up 0.051 percentage points at 4.861%, the highest yield seen since Aug. 18.

  94. Clotpoll says:

    My 2 cents USD:

    Whatever the Fed does next, it will be a complete sandbag job, and EVERYONE will be left scratching their heads.

  95. Better lower your prices fast THE RACE TO THE BOTTOM IS ON says:

    http://www.futuresource.com/charts/charts.jsp?s=USH07&o=&a=D&z=610×300&d=medium&b=bar&st

    worry crabby bunch….

    affordability going down….fewer potential dummies out there to bag.

    READ MY LIPS:

    Better lower fast jump ahead of the competition. It is a race to the bottom. 2008 depths of misery

  96. BC Bob says:

    “i’d love to see this play out in the real world LOL.”

    Richard,

    What the hell do you think you are witnessing?? It’s happening right in front of your eyes. It’s not a fiction story. It’s the real deal. I’m sure the H-B’s wish this was a third rate movie.
    However, wishes and wants are not always accomodated by the market. The market giveth, the market taketh. Some gave, others took. That’s how it played out/is playing out in the real world.

    I don’t care how long it takes to play out. My determining factor is not time, just realistic pricing/value. If I’m wrong??? I let my interest pay my rent. That’s my risk?? What’s your downside??

  97. Better lower your prices fast THE RACE TO THE BOTTOM IS ON says:

    IT AIN’T GOING TO REBOUND BACK FROM THE DEPTHS OF MISERY IN 2008.

    BETTER ACT FAST IF YOU WANT TO GET OUT BEFORE THE BOTTOM. IT THINK IT MAY STAY AT THIS BOTTOM RANGE FOR MANY YEARS. POOOOOOOFFFFFFFFF THE PAPER EQUITY IS LOST.

    BOOOOOOOOOOOYAAAAAAA (SICK MOAN)

    Bob – happy comfortable home(s)owner.

  98. Better lower your prices fast THE RACE TO THE BOTTOM IS ON says:

    If you want out better take it now and lower aggressively “right now”.
    Once spring passes no hope no saviors to bail you out.
    Pyschology will shift decidely negative.

    hehehehe

    The pendulum is swinging to the other side.greed -concern-denial- fear
    Hanging on to spring magic. NO MAGIC left.

  99. RentinginNJ says:

    Richard,

    I have always said that I will buy when I can get a decent house that my family and I will be comfortable in for many years, without taking a suicide loan or becoming a slave to a mortgage. For me, a house is a place to live. Right now, I simply don’t see good value in the NNJ market. I’m sorry, but if prices doubling or tripling and then backing off 5% is supposed to be a good deal, I’ll pass.

    I don’t plan on renting forever, but I do plan to sit out 2007. If I like what I see next year, I will buy. If not, I will seriously consider joining the 72,000 people who left NJ last year.

  100. Better lower your prices fast THE RACE TO THE BOTTOM IS ON says:

    so for you buyers DO NOT expect much appreciation! the easy days of just leveraging up and counting the ATM home equity is history.

    If you pay to much you will be taking a check to closing if you have to sell within 7-10 years, so you better negotiate the lowest price possible “at least 25% off 2005 peak prices” for houses cuz you are going to need it.

  101. bergenbubbleburst says:

    #93 Clot: See you and I can agee on something, the feeling does stay with you for a life time, or it should.

    Spouse and I purchased at the height of the last bubble, lots of the same rah rah cheerleading going on at that time as therw was this time.”Experts” (not just realtors, economists etc.) on the radio in print (pre-internet days) were discusiing how prices would keep going up, and waiting made no sense, and how a whole generation of home buyers would be closed out of the housing market forever.

    Well spouse and I at the time, young 20″s newly married, living in an apartmenrt, and the thought of having to live there a life time, never to own a home was frightening.

    Long story short, we bought like so many others, and sold it 10 years later for 4k less then we paid for it, and not including all the improvements.

    Many many people lived through this time condo/coop shacks even worse people paying 125K at the top of the market selling them 10 years later for 25 to 35K.

    I remember this well, and as you said it colors or it should color ones perspective.

    I can some what understand the 30 something crowd of today, who blow this period off, and say Oh it could not have been that bad (it was), or who say Oh its different this time, but cannot offer an explanation as to why it is different this time, or one of my favorites, the government (whoever that is) won’t let it happen.

    What is really scary is that some people I know my age who should know better and remember this time, have all but forgotten it,and some of them too offer the old oh its different this time, and gain offer no explanation as to why.

    When I see the amounts of money they have taken out to spend on 100k kitichens and BMW’s and the rest I just shake my head.

    Some grant it are using the equity to pay tuition bills, but there are smarter ways to pay for it, rather then risking your house.

    When I point this out, its oh don’t be so negative , and again no explanation offered.

    The one huge difference at that time as opposed to the last few years, was that you actually had to really qualify for the mtg, the old 28/36.

    Most people had to put down at least 10%, and the norm was 20%, and there was none of this exotic financing in place.

    history I belive is repeating itself, only this time all the reckless that was so prevelant, will in my opinion make the down turn longer lasting and worse than last time.

    Today’s 30 somethings may have theri own horror stories to tell down the road.

  102. James Bednar says:

    Hey Boo-boo!

    Awfully bearish in here today…

    jb

  103. bergenbubbleburst says:

    RentinNJ #100 Hang on, if your desire is buy at a resoable price, I truly belive you will be able to accomplish that within the next year.

    The serious sellers need buyers, and they will adjust accordingly. I would think today’s numbers, and 24 low etc. will finally start to wake up many people to the now unfolding reality, and who do need to sell for whatever reason/s.

    Perception in real estate matters, just as it did when it was going up (closed out for ever), so will it on the way down (biggest decline in 24 years).

  104. SG says:

    Just another Anecdotal evidence.

    Few weeks ago I was in Bombay, India. I have few friends in IT industry there. The buzz this time was Lehman & UBS are hiring like crazy there. They were offering double the average IT salaries.

    I think back office movement from big FSI players of NYC to India for IT services will definitely have big impact on NJ RE. It may not effect NYC Investment bankers, but definitely to Back office people, who mainly live in suburbs.

  105. BC Bob says:

    “Hey Boo-boo!”

    When does Boo-boo disappear and the lights are turned onto Listen.

  106. BC Bob says:

    Bergenbubble [102]

    Great post.

  107. chicagofinance says:

    Last night I used the word “condoshack” in conversation. It just kind of slipped out. I thought WTF am I saying?!?!?!?!

  108. RentinginNJ says:

    Don’t feel bad. I once used “reapartmentation” – The processes of converting an apartment into a condo and then back into an apartment.

  109. BC Bob says:

    “Last night I used the word “condoshack””

    B-52 song version???

  110. rhymingrealtor says:

    http://njrereport.com/index.php/2007/01/25/december-existing-home-sales/#comment-73990

    Jim,

    I am certainly not busy enough myself to call a trend.. but what I see wether mine or other agents is the buyers are in these 3 categories,
    selling to buy up.. selling to buy down (cash) or 100% finance. No regular first time buyers.
    KL

  111. bergenbubbleburst says:

    BC Bob Thanks

  112. bergenbubbleburst says:

    I forget who on thos forum came up with the term condo shack, but to whoever it was, thank you.

    It is one of my favorites.

  113. Hard Place says:

    One issue that the longs can not refute is the demographic issue. Ultimately the composition of buyers will be people forming families. That’s typically the 25-40 year olds. According to the US Census we are entering a dearth of those buyers. Based on the 2000 census and projecting forward 7 years to the current time the current population profile does not favor rapid increase in prices.

    http://www.census.gov/population/pop-profile/2000/chap02.pdf

    That I believe is the strongest issue shaping future home prices. It’s the undercurrent of the wave. We already know that prices have been supported recently by low mortgage rates and excess liquidity and of course a tax system that in 1997 promoted home ownership with the 250k per person capital gains exemption. All those ingredients formed the perfect combination to create the housing bubble. Slowly things will unwind, but we are just in the beginning stages.

  114. mifune says:

    SG – If you hear or read anything else about outsourcing FS backoffice work to India please post it. That certainly would be a big deal to employment in the NYC area.

  115. SG says:

    I now firmly believe that only measure for RE that is reliable is Months of Supply. All other measures do not give correct picture. The following link gives MOS chart for last 20 years,

    http://www.economagic.com/em-cgi/charter.exe/cenc25/fsalmon06+1987+2006+0+0+0+290+545++0

    We are in similar pattern as it happened in 1988-1991 and 1993-1996. During both period coming back to normality took at least 2 to 3 years. In current boom, we are still increasing MOS, that is to say that one should definitely wait till peak is reached.

    Also, if you think of it, in earlier cycles, MOS reduced sharply every year at year end, but this did not at all happen in 2005 or 2006.

    I personally own a house, but we need to upgrade due to growing family. I definitely will not be buying for at least 2 more years.

    The question is First time buyers are not buying, Move up buyers like my self are not buying, Why will the Spring bounce be back in 2007???

  116. njrebear says:

    Summit Financial profit falls after closing mortgage unit

    http://biz.yahoo.com/pz/070125/112481.html

  117. SG says:

    mifune:

    Read this article.

    Financial services make hiring tough for IT industry: Nilekani

    http://timesofindia.indiatimes.com/NEWS/India_Business/Financial_services_make_hiring_tough_for_IT_industry_Nilekani/articleshow/1187584.cms

    The outsourcing is not just IT programmers now a days. They are hiring large number of CPAs and CFAs to do analysis work as well.

  118. RentinginNJ says:

    NEW YORK (AP) — Stocks pulled back sharply Thursday, sending the Dow Jones industrials down more than 100 points, as investors grew concerned over a lackluster report on sales of existing homes.

    Bonds fell after a disappointing auction of five-year Treasury notes and in response to news of a drop in the number of unsold homes last month. The yield on the benchmark 10-year note jumped to 4.87 percent from 4.81 percent late Wednesday. The dollar was mixed against other major currencies, while gold prices rose.

    http://biz.yahoo.com/ap/070125/wall_street.html?.v=35

  119. NJGal says:

    If anyone follows the legal market, there has just begun a huge salary war, the likes of which has not been seen since…1999. On Monday, Simpson Thatcher, a huge firm, boosted first year pay to 160K per year. That does not include bonus. And anyone who has ever met a first year knows they aren’t worth nearly so much. But apparently law firms are losing their people to financial institutions who pay million dollar bonuses so they are trying to compete.

    Welcome to wage inflation, starting at the top. It’s very interesting to me that this is pretty much exactly what happened right before the last stock market crash in 2000, when the big firms hopped up to the 125K level. Shortly after the crash, hiring ceased and many of my friends at large firms were laid off. And since I have always been told law works in 7 year cycles, we could be at the tipping point.

  120. chicagofinance says:

    bergenbubbleburst Says:
    January 25th, 2007 at 2:20 pm
    I forget who on thos forum came up with the term condo shack, but to whoever it was, thank you.

    bergs: BOOOYA BOB

  121. RentinginNJ says:

    Court throws out affordable housing plan

    In a stunning ruling today, a state appeals court invalidated the state government’s plan to make nearly 300 New Jersey suburban and rural towns provide nearly 77,000 affordable houses and apartments for low-income residents over 10 years and gave the Corzine administration six months to develop a new plan

    http://www.nj.com/newslogs/starledger/index.ssf?/mtlogs/njo_ledgerupdate/archives/2007_01.html#229440

  122. skep-tic says:

    “One issue that the longs can not refute is the demographic issue.”

    I agree that this is the biggest issue w/r/t housing (particularly suburban SFHs). The massive wave of boomers retiring over the next 5-10 yrs will drive prices lower if nothing else.

  123. Doyle says:

    I’ve been lurking here for a long while and have a totally off-topic question that I hope Chicago or someone else could help with…

    My mother opened a NJ 529 college savings plan with a broker for my 2-year old nephew. The broker recommend buying “A” Shares and paying the load upfront. I’m thinking she should just roll the plan over into a direct NJ 529 plan so she does not have to pay any load that will eat into any profit. Do you think this is the best route, or should she let the broker handle the management and leave the plan with him? I’m not a financial wizard, but I’m thinking I can handle managing it for her.

    Sorry to be off topic and thanks in advance for any advice.

  124. skep-tic says:

    “If anyone follows the legal market, there has just begun a huge salary war”

    I am following it and loving it.

    But let’s put it into perspective. Law firms have raised starting salaries 28% since 2000.

    Law school tuition has gone up at least 50% since 2000. Firms are simply keeping pace with the cost of becoming a lawyer

  125. lisoosh says:

    R.E. – Timed buying and being upside down.
    I for one would rather wait a year or so and be 20K upside down than buy now and be 120k in a hole.

    It might just look like percentages, but to most of us it is real dollars that we have to work for.

  126. skep-tic says:

    Richard deserves some credit for reminding us that part of housing expenditures is consumption, plain and simple.

    Just about everyone once they reach a certain age wants to buy, and only when the numbers are overwhelmingly negative does a sizeable portion of the buying public refrain

  127. RentinginNJ says:

    Home builders getting hit hard today.

    BZH 44.41 -2.6 -5.9%
    CTX 51.59 -2.05 -4.0%
    DHI 28.12 -0.63 -2.2%
    HOV 31.71 -1.4 -4.4%
    LEN 51.89 -1.74 -3.4%
    MTH 43.86 -1.99 -4.5%
    RYL 52.81 -3.16 -6.0%
    TOL 32.69 -1.5 -4.6%
    WCI 19.94 -0.92 -4.6%

  128. NJGal says:

    “I am following it and loving it.

    But let’s put it into perspective. Law firms have raised starting salaries 28% since 2000.

    Law school tuition has gone up at least 50% since 2000. Firms are simply keeping pace with the cost of becoming a lawyer ”

    They have been increasing salaries, true, but never so quickly. After all, the “shocking” 145K number was a raise that just happened in ’05/’06. Many firms were just starting to catch up late last year.

    But where do you get tuition going up 50% since then? That’s just not true. My husband graduated in ’02 (I was ’01) and there was no great increase in that time, nor have I heard of one since. We went to an expensive top rated private school, and remain involved, and no one has mentioned a number like that to us. After all, I paid about 28K in tuition at that time – now it’s about 36. Higher to be sure, but not 50%.

  129. BC Bob says:

    “Just about everyone once they reach a certain age wants to buy, and only when the numbers are overwhelmingly negative does a sizeable portion of the buying public refrain ”

    Skeptic,

    …….and then the NJ Real Estate Report was created. The essence of the debate, no???

  130. lisoosh says:

    One of the really frustrating things that has come out of the past few years is the current plethora of “renovations”.

    I would rather pay a reasonable price for an older home and fix it up according to my own taste and requirements than to overpay for a badly done, cookie cutter flipper renovation using shoddy materials and poor workmanship.

    Looks like every Tom Dick and Harry decided to become rich by painting over problem areas in neutral tones and installing granite countertops.

  131. skep-tic says:

    “After all, I paid about 28K in tuition at that time – now it’s about 36. Higher to be sure, but not 50%.”

    My alma mater is now $42,000 per year.

    that’s exactly 50% up from $28,000 in 2000.

    Regardless of whether tuition is up 30% or 50%, I guess I just don’t think the starting salaries are so high.

    The number of graduates from the top schools is fixed. There is massive turnover (at least 25% annually) at almost every big firm. Lawyers are expected to bill roughly double the hours they were 20 yrs ago. The list goes on and on.

    The legal profession has changed drastically in a short period and high starting salaries are just one aspect

  132. skep-tic says:

    “and then the NJ Real Estate Report was created. The essence of the debate, no???”

    absolutely. think back to fall 2005. this site was a godsend

    just saying that people (not all of them dumb) buy for all sorts of reasons that on paper are unwise.

  133. MovingBackAtTheBottom says:

    #124

    Who is the brokerage firm? Please don’t tell me it’s a bank. The firm matters because most of the time they try to sell thier own junk funds. And I don’t think the NJ 529 is that great. You don’t have to use your own states 529 plan. Other states have much better plans, not sure off hand.

  134. NJGal says:

    “Regardless of whether tuition is up 30% or 50%, I guess I just don’t think the starting salaries are so high.

    The number of graduates from the top schools is fixed. There is massive turnover (at least 25% annually) at almost every big firm. Lawyers are expected to bill roughly double the hours they were 20 yrs ago. The list goes on and on.

    The legal profession has changed drastically in a short period and high starting salaries are just one aspect ”

    That’s a crazy increase. What was the reason?

    The profession has certainly changed. But one thing never does – first years are useless no matter what school they come from:) And I speak from experience – I was pretty useless myself.

    If I was slaving away for 2300-2600 hours a year, I would also consider leaving for a financial job – why not? If you’re billing the time, you may as well take your million dollar bonus for it. That’s one reason retention is so bad, plus the fact that so few of these “sought after” grads will ever become partner. It’s kind of sad.

  135. NJGal says:

    One other thought skep-tic – a lot of people (ahem, Richard) will argue these huge starting salaries will help prop up prices. But if tuition, and subsequently loans, keeps rising, it erases those salary gains. Especially with interest rates where they are now. My gov’t loans are at 4% – my husband’s are lower, and he has pals with loans at 1%. But nowdays, we’re looking at rates back up to 7% and higher (my private loans, before I paid them off, were up to 8.25%).

  136. Rich In NNJ says:

    RentinginNJ Says:
    January 25th, 2007 at 3:13 pm

    “Home builders getting hit hard today.”

    Where’s the fish?
    “The trend is your friend…”

  137. pesche22 says:

    the trend sure is your friend when you can
    read a chart and your short.

  138. BC Bob says:

    Less demand for 10 year notes??? Supply weighing on the markets??? Primary dealers discussing the real world, not spin from pundits.

    “The $13 billion in notes were sold at a yield of 4.855 percent, the highest in six months. A gauge of demand comparing the volume of bids with the amount of securities sold was below the average of the previous dozen sales.”

    “The rally we had in the past has started to come undone,” said James Caron, head of U.S. interest-rate strategy in New York at Morgan Stanley, one of 22 primary dealers that bid on Treasury auctions. “Supply is going to weigh on the markets.”

    “The economy clearly has some momentum,” said William Hornbarger, chief fixed-income strategist at A.G. Edwards & Sons Inc. in St. Louis. “We could make a push to 5 percent” on the 10-year note yield.

    http://www.bloomberg.com/apps/news?pid=20601087&sid=aKAkxhMkOR_0&refer=home

  139. BC Bob says:

    pesche [138],

    Do you have Richarditis???

  140. Rich In NNJ says:

    pesche22 Says:
    January 25th, 2007 at 4:10 pm

    “the trend sure is your friend when you can
    read a chart and your short.”

    Now your short home builders…?

    Reechard the Fish

  141. Rich In NNJ says:

    Grim / NJREBear,

    Did ya get my email?

    Rich

  142. pesche22 says:

    the trend is your friend and the market was
    down today my friend.

    the market goes up. you make money.
    the market goes down. you make money.

  143. pesche22 says:

    and new home sales tomorrow at 10am.

    lets see what they do with it.

    XHB down today 1st in 15 sessions.

  144. Richard says:

    let me quote some actual data. median prices are up almost 2% y-o-y during one of the worst ‘downturns’ in RE history. homeowners should be shaking in their boots as their equity goes poof. lol. wake me up when median drops 7%+ annually.

  145. Richard says:

    markets looking ugly today. i’m still bullish but days like this can test a man’s mettle.

  146. pesche22 says:

    got to be a buyer today. takes a little chart
    reading . little over sold. as in housing.

    overdone.

  147. NJGal says:

    “let me quote some actual data. median prices are up almost 2% y-o-y during one of the worst ‘downturns’ in RE history. homeowners should be shaking in their boots as their equity goes poof. lol. wake me up when median drops 7%+ annually.”

    Ok, but I would ask that Grim or someone post the data about the last downturn, where prices actually increased slightly during the start of the downturn prior to the big fall.

    And if we’re talking NJ, didn’t prices actually DECREASE in 2006, at least in a bunch of areas? Since real estate is so local, isn’t that what’s important?

  148. BC Bob says:

    Richard,

    I really don’t care what median prices are reported at. If this was as rosy as you project, why are the H-B’s close to a downgrade by Moody’s. I sure HOV, TOLL and others can rest assured because median prices are up. What side of their ledger reflects that??? I can’t believe Wall Street anlaysts did not state this in their earnings report.

    What a bunch of crap. I know that I can buy at 10-15% off 2005, not an illusion, realtors are presenting this to me. How do those median prices reflect all the damn incentives??? If this market was was on solid footing why a free car,paid closing costs, 2 years of mortgage payments, etc…. By the way, maybe you should set the alarm clock.

  149. skep-tic says:

    “That’s a crazy increase. What was the reason?”

    50% works out to 7% annual tuition increases compounded over 6 yrs. pretty high, but not totally abnormal for universities in recent years. bottom line is there are people lining up to pay whatever they ask, so there’s no incentive to control costs.

    “If I was slaving away for 2300-2600 hours a year, I would also consider leaving for a financial job – why not? If you’re billing the time, you may as well take your million dollar bonus for it. That’s one reason retention is so bad, plus the fact that so few of these “sought after” grads will ever become partner. It’s kind of sad.”

    I think it’s sad if you have no interest in your work. Unfortunately, there is a strangely high number of people who work in these firms who cannot articulate why they do it (as I’m sure you know). Sad indeed

  150. Clotpoll says:

    Short interest & ratios in HBs now approaching that of Martha Stewart (MSO) as she was being fed to the monster.

    As BC Bob & I both mentioned yesterday, and especially given today’s bloodletting, who’s left who wants to sell?

    Can you say “short squeeze”?

    The HBs are setting up for a classic one!

    All disclaimers apply. I am neither long nor short HBs. If you short sell anything, your potential loss is infinite and you run the risk of being left without enough money to make the downpayment on ANY condoshack in ANY condition…even in Booyah Bob’s least favorite development.

  151. Clotpoll says:

    Amazing how many people with law degrees became Realtors during the bull run.

    They’re about as good at selling as I am at practicing law.

  152. BC Bob says:

    “wake me up when median drops 7%+ annually.”

    Richard,

    Maybe you don’t have to wake up completely today. I suggest you keep on sleeping. However, it may be a good idea to start throwing a little water on your face.

    The below would certainly get my attention. However, let’s be fair, you didn’t ask for a wake up call regarding the 10 year. Maybe you snooze, you lose???

    http://charts3.barchart.com/chart.asp?sym=TYH7&data=A&jav=adv&vol=Y&evnt=adv&grid=Y&code=BSTK&org=stk&fix=

  153. Richard says:

    bc bob, your bearish zealousness has blinded you to any other way of perceiving things. you’re sounding more like a born again christian every day.

  154. BC Bob says:

    Clot [151],

    I was referring to HOV’s short ratio. However, I am quite certain the others are also abnormally high.

  155. RentLord says:

    Reechard – question: what’s ur motivation to post here?

  156. chicagofinance says:

    Doyle Says:
    January 25th, 2007 at 3:06 pm
    I’m thinking she should just roll the plan over into a direct NJ 529 plan so she does not have to pay any load that will eat into any profit.
    Sorry to be off topic and thanks in advance for any advice.

    Doyle: Unlike many states, the NJ plan is identical whether it is broker sold or direct [some states do not have broker sold option, many states have different broker versus direct]. It is not a complicated product, so if you understand the basics, and are willing to monitor it for your mom, go for it. CAVEAT: if you are NOT willing to monitor it for her, use the auto-pilot option “Age Based Allocation”. No matter who offers the product, it is identical for everyone.

    Make sure to check up on this investment for her from time to time!!! Don’t leave her hanging out to dry with it.

    FYI – if your mom derives any income from New York State sources, she should consider the NYS plan. If your mom is a PA resident, she SHOULD NOT use the PA plan, which is unmitigated garbage. She should feel free to use the best plan she can find from any state, as the tax dedcution for PA is based on residency [unique provision].

    Off-hand, I don’t particularly recommend the NJ Plan. JMHO

  157. BC Bob says:

    Richard [152],

    No, I’m just awake. Born again Christian??? What the hell does that have to do with market observation. Typical asinine statement. LOL!!

    At least I’m consistent. You are the worm that turned.

  158. chicagofinance says:

    To be clear….there is nothing wrong with the NJ Plan.

    FYI – I’m sorry, I have to plug this…..I have a method of buying A shares in the NYS 529 without commission.

  159. chicagofinance says:

    Everything on my screen today is friggin’ red except F & EBAY :(

  160. NJGal says:

    “I think it’s sad if you have no interest in your work. Unfortunately, there is a strangely high number of people who work in these firms who cannot articulate why they do it (as I’m sure you know). Sad indeed”

    I think a lot don’t. I know that I really had no idea what I was in for, going to l.s. straight out of college. And most of my pals in big firms express no love for their work – it’s a cycle – they do it to pay loans, and because it helps open doors for work they WANT to do, despite the fact that working 4 years at a place like that means in reality that you get little legal experience (although your work ethic is probably pretty strong). My father laments the way the profession has gone everyday, as do many others his age (back then, he became partner in a now unheard of 5 years). But so be it. We have to adapt, and hope to make positive changes from here on.

  161. chicagofinance says:

    Has the Housing Slump Hit Rock Bottom Yet?
    January 25, 2007 2:02 p.m.

    Read a handful of economists’ reactions to Thursday’s report.

    * * *
    Home sales fell for the first time in three months but the median sales price edged up for the first time in five months. A big drop in the inventory of unsold homes may indicate that the least “motivated” sellers are withdrawing from the market. If so, “bid-ask” spreads, which though unobservable are nonetheless a gauge of imbalance in market, could begin to narrow. However, further declines in prices may yet be necessary. – Nomura Economics Research

    * * *
    The recent stability in sales helped bloated inventories show some improvement. Warm weather has likely supported recent housing market activity, and we expect some renewed downside now that more normal weather has arrived. — David Greenlaw, Ted Wieseman, Morgan Stanley Research

    * * *
    Despite December’s decline, the trend in home sales is probably turning up. The most important evidence to this effect is that mortgage-purchase applications continue to rise: up 4.7% in December and 3.2% so far in January. – J.P. Morgan Economic Research

    * * *
    Households are still not out there buying homes like crazy, but at least demand is no longer collapsing. Existing home sales fell moderately in December and sales for all of last year were off sharply. The condo market cratered and single-family homes were not very strong either. All regions were off but the West was the weakest as sales dropped nearly 17% last year. In December, there was again a large fall off in the West, a more moderate one in the Northeast and increases in the South and Midwest. On the positive side, the adjustment process appears to be well under way. – Joel Naroff, Naroff Economic Advisors

    * * *
    What are we to make of this report? No doubt many will leap on the dip in the inventory-sales ratios, the rise in condo sales and a leveling off in the annual rate of inflation as further evidence that the housing market is stabilizing. We remain more skeptical and, while acknowledging the marginally better tone of housing market indicators in November and December, still regard the housing market downturn as closer to the beginning than the end. – BNP Paribas

    * * *
    The housing market is showing some preliminary signs of stabilization, but there are not enough signs yet to suggest that we have convincingly turned the corner. The adjustment path is likely to be bumpy for several more months. The upshot is that housing and related upstream industries will continue to exert a significant drag on overall growth in the economy continue through the first half of 2007. – Brian Bethune, Global Insight

  162. BC Bob says:

    “Everything on my screen today is friggin’ red except F & EBAY ”

    Chi,

    I guess you don’t require a wake up call???

  163. skep-tic says:

    anyone who puts faith in the supposed median house price rise in 2006 is lying to himself.

    you’ve got every major homebuilder acknowledging they can’t move houses w/o major incentives and discounts.

    you’ve got analysts and realtors reporting from every region of the country in today’s WSJ noting big price declines.

    Off the top of my head, I recall Otteau saying (as he has before) that NJ prices are down 10% YoY.

  164. Clotpoll says:

    BC Bob-

    Pretty much all the HBs have massive short interest (ie- TOL approaching 19% of float short).

    Interestingly, DH Horton (DHI), the nation’s #1 HB in terms of units/year, features a respectable short percentage of only 5.4% of the float. Perhaps exposure to better-behaving US markets helps them a little?

  165. James Bednar says:

    cf,

    Looks like a number of mainstream analysts are taking a cautious to bearish position on housing now. Does this finally mean I’m no longer an un-American terrorist?

    jb

  166. BC Bob says:

    “bc bob, your bearish zealousness”

    Richard,

    Great one. Just bearish housing[yes, big bear], the financials and the US dollar. Otherwise bullish. Maybe I should just turn the 10 year and the dollar charts upside down and take a nap. YIKES.

  167. BC Bob says:

    Clot [165],

    How about a spread?? Short HOV [30% float is short] and long DHI.

  168. Clotpoll says:

    Sounds like Reechard is about to take a nap…a dirt nap.

    Thanks to Imus for coining that term.

  169. BuyNextYear says:

    Is it time yet for another edition of “Lowball” or “Price Reduced”?

  170. AntiTrump says:

    #105 SG Says:

    SG, I posted a couple of months back that majority of he middle back office headcount for our 2007 budget has been allocated to India. And it is not just IT, it is also operations and finance headcount. I suspect that equity research will make a big move their over the next couple of years.

  171. AntiTrump says:

    #128 “Home builders getting hit hard today.”

    Guess we won’t be seeing peche22 here today boasting about the uptick in housing stocks?

  172. AntiTrump says:

    #152 Clot says: “Amazing how many people with law degrees became Realtors during the bull run.”

    I was talking to my friend who is a doc and he said that his son quit med-school to become an investment banker in 2001 in the height of the dot-com bubble. After the crash and a few job hops around wall street, he has decided to go back and finish up med school.

  173. Rich In NNJ says:

    AntiTrump Says:
    January 25th, 2007 at 5:43 pm

    “Guess we won’t be seeing peche22 here today boasting about the uptick in housing stocks?”

    Now he’s shorting housing stocks… when he’s not ranting about NJ’s diverse population.

    Rich

  174. chicagofinance says:

    James Bednar Says:
    January 25th, 2007 at 5:27 pm
    Does this finally mean I’m no longer an un-American terrorist?
    jb

    grim: You are the DorkMaster, and this website is the Polish Hammer!

  175. HEHEHE says:

    My experience of working the past 9 yrs in major law firms is the typical new associate shelf-life is 2-3 yrs. Either they get the tap on the shoulder or thry burn out and look for a cosier legal/non legal job. After that time period most have their student loans paid off etc.

  176. chicagofinance says:

    Someone help me here…..I don’t sell annuities for the most part, because I think they are an expensive and inferior tool. Then I see stuff such as the story at the end of this link, and I sit here thinking am I f—— stupid. I could make tons of money selling this crap, and the public is obviously eating it up…………

    http://www.bloomberg.com/apps/news?pid=20601103&sid=aJ6kVF9MiXqs&refer=us

  177. skep-tic says:

    isn’t one good argument for an annuity that it provides the diversification of bonds with a tax deferral advantage?

  178. pesche22 says:

    #174

    I’m reading the report on the $200 Million
    NJ spends on illegals in our hospitals.

    Which has BK’d the system.

    Also just saw an editorial on Marcal,no shame

  179. Pat says:

    Annuity, annuity,
    Friend in perpetuity.
    All others have left me,
    my lone, sole security.

    How do I love thee,
    Much maligned little stream.
    Come rain, sleet or snow,
    True colors you show.

    Pray forgive youth’s
    lustful wandering eye-
    Its caution to the wind
    When Google was high.

    Value is cyclical-
    So much we forget.
    But when boomers go bust,
    Their hearts go with trust.

    Trust in something, not self
    Self made some losses,
    And created a world
    of 85-year-old bosses.

    You will again rise,
    And shine your bright light,
    for the few who have learned,
    of your repetitive might.

  180. Clotpoll says:

    Albert Einstein was once asked what the most amazing concept he’d ever encountered was.

    His answer?

    Compounding interest.

  181. Zac says:

    Zac’s now thinking about moving some of his 401k money out of the money market into the offered international fund. maybe 25%(?)

  182. Pat says:

    Zac..diversity is the soothing benefactor of the unwise investor. Why don’t you read a few of the on-line recommended strategies for someone your age?

    Very conservative approaches are here:

    http://money.cnn.com/popups/2006/moneymag/25_rules/7.html

  183. njrebear says:

    More on Fermont which is one of the top 5 ‘non-prime’ lenders.

    “http://forum.brokeroutpost.com/loans/forum/2/88772.htm”

    i got some scoop from former AEs… they are still in business and competitive at what they do… however 4th quarter buybacks are going to be in the hundreds of millions.. looking for a buyer – possible Bear Stearns.. thanks for everyone’s posts..

  184. njrebear says:

    More on Fremont which is one of the top 5 ‘non-prime’ lenders.

    “http://forum.brokeroutpost.com/loans/forum/2/88772.htm”

    i got some scoop from former AEs… they are still in business and competitive at what they do… however 4th quarter buybacks are going to be in the hundreds of millions.. looking for a buyer – possible Bear Stearns.. thanks for everyone’s posts..

  185. listentothecrybabywannabehomeowners says:

    mls# 2315051, OLP: $437,500, SP: $440,000 DOM:

  186. listentothecrybabywannabehomeowners says:

    mls# 2315051, OLP: $437,500, SP: $440,000 DOM: 12, CD: 12/10/2006

    MLS# 2313265, OLP: $729,000, SP: $735,000, DOM: 34, CD:

  187. listentothecrybabywannabehomeowners says:

    MLS# 2315051, OLP: $437,500, SP: $440,000 DOM: 12, CD: 12/10/2006

    MLS# 2313265, OLP: $729,000, SP: $735,000, DOM: 34, CD: 12/11/2006

    MLS: 2331922, OLP: $414,000, SP: 417,923, DOM: 24, CD: 12/4/2006

    Three examples of property selling above asking price in one month or less.

    WAAAAAAAAAAAAAAH!!!

  188. njrebear says:

    UPDATE 4-IndyMac Bancorp sees tough 2007, freezes salaries

    http://yahoo.reuters.com/news/articleinvesting.aspx?type=companyNews&storyid=247011+25-Jan-2007+RTRS&WTmodLoc=HybArt-L2-CompanyNews-2

    The Pasadena-based parent of IndyMac Bank also said it has frozen all salaries, stopped hiring non-revenue-generating personnel, plans to outsource 50 percent more jobs by year end, and has established a “SWAT” team to improve performance.

    Lower borrowing demand “is creating fierce competition and affecting margins,” Perry said. “You have excess capacity; a severely inverted yield curve; slowing housing prices, starts and sales; and credit losses returning to more normal levels. It is impacting our earnings in the short run.”

  189. listentothecrybabywannabehomeowners says:

    #187 & #188

    The sound of screaming wannabecrybabies makes me slip and hit the SUBMIT comment button.

    WAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAH!!!

  190. njrebear says:

    Millennium Bankshares shutting down mortgage business

    http://biz.yahoo.com/bizj/070125/1408132.html?.v=1

    Millennium Bankshares will wind down its mortgage banking business to focus solely on core banking services, the company announced Thursday.

    Bank officials say they will delay the release of their year-end financial results until they can determine the costs that will be incurred to close down the mortgage subsidiaries.

  191. listentothecrybabywannabehomeowners says:

    chicagofinance #177

    Thanks for your ethical approach to your work… I have elderly relatives – >80 years old, who were sold annuities by their life-long financial institutions. In both cases we were able to get the sales reversed.

    Annuities and their purveyors are evil slimeballs.

    WAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAH!!!

  192. listentothecrybabywannabehomeowners says:

    NJGal #148

    “Ok, but I would ask that Grim or someone post the data about the last downturn, where prices actually increased slightly during the start of the downturn prior to the big fall.”

    Huh???

    WAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAH!!!

  193. Zac says:

    where’s that ignore button ?

  194. njrebear says:

    Man Injured In Shooting At Mortgage Company

    http://cbs2.com/topstories/local_story_025102007.html

    >>
    Body armor needed for loan officers.

  195. SG says:

    Google search on keywords “New Jersey Real Estate” now returns Grim’s old blog nnjbubble.blogspot.com on first page.

    I am guessing google is catching up with Blog traffic.

  196. Clotpoll says:

    Zac (195)-

    Next to the Easy button.

  197. njrebear says:

    Dana capital in trouble.

    http://www.banking.state.pa.us/banking/lib/banking/consumer_information/dana_capital_consent_agreement.pdf

    The Commonwealth of Pennsylvania, acting through the Department of Banking investigating Dana Capital for originating Pennsylvania residential mortgage loans from unlicensed locations.

  198. skep-tic says:

    wannabe–

    obviously there are some smart sellers out there who know how to price appropriately.

    your info tells us nothing as to whether this was a profitable sale– only a quick one.

    Come to think of it, given how often agents relist properties with new MLS numbers, it doesn’t even tell us that.

  199. chicagofinance says:

    Clotpoll Says:
    January 25th, 2007 at 9:14 pm
    Zac (195)-
    Next to the Easy button.

    http://www.staples.com/sbd/cre/marketing/easybutton/index.html

  200. njrebear says:

    Realtors’ economist stayed sunny all year
    Commentary: David Lereah saw bottom in first quarter, second quarter …

    http://www.marketwatch.com/news/story/commentary-realtors-economist-stayed-sunny/story.aspx?guid=%7BEBC34E29%2D49EE%2D4925%2DA69A%2D52807DBE0C1E%7D

    >>
    This one is funny.

  201. listentothecrybabywannabehomeowners says:

    skep-tic,

    They are merely three data points that show a sale above OLP. These sales may have been at a huge gain, a huge loss or most likely, someplace inbetween. All are data points, all are relevant.

    Many crybabywannabes here post data showing sales off OLP. These sales may be at a huge gain, a huge loss, or most likely, someplace inbetwen. All are data points, all are relevant.

    We can forever conjecture, hypothesize, guess or speculate about the details about any sale presented here, but the data is the data.

    I find it amusing that RE data presented on this blog that is contrary to certain zealous, almost religious beliefs (BC, are you there?) is so viscously attacked and discarded. Call out the pit bulls! Or is it the pit bears?

    Also of note, the median price in NJ did increase from December 2005.

    WAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAH!!!

  202. listentothecrybabywannabehomeowners says:

    njbear #203,

    Thanks for the link, truly funny. Mr. Leeeerah gives crybabywannabes a good reason to cry. Not to mention he truly is a d******k. The NAR would do itself a big favor by firing the guy.

    WAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAH!!!

  203. Pat says:

    Listen, it’s not so much the crying, it
    s the dry-heaves.

    Here, this one’s always good for a gross-out:

    http://www.realtor.org/Research.nsf/Pages/LereahD

  204. Clotpoll says:

    I can’t believe NAR is so tone-deaf as to keep trotting this guy out, month after month.

    This is why I NEVER make the “suggested” yearly agent donation to NAR.

  205. listentothecrybabywannabehomeowners says:

    Clot,

    Do you donate MORE? ;-)P

    WAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAH!!!

  206. Rich In NNJ says:

    listentothecrybabywannabehomeowners Says:
    January 25th, 2007 at 9:44 pm

    “Also of note, the median price in NJ did increase from December 2005.”

    Y-O-Y, Dec. 05 to ’06? Or comparing Dec. ’05 to ’06?
    And by how much?

    NJAR hasn’t released Q4 results yet so any data you could supply would be great.

    Thanks,
    Rich

  207. rhymingrealtor says:

    listentothecrybabywannabehomeowners Says:
    January 25th, 2007 at 9:44 pm
    ((((I find it amusing that RE data presented on this blog that is contrary to certain zealous, almost religious beliefs ))))

    I don’t understand why you come to this church??
    KL

  208. lowball says:

    Liareah to the sheeple:
    “Now, with the speculators out of the market”

    THIS IS NONSENSE!
    The speculators are now trapped on the wrong side, you dumba$$.

  209. njrebear says:

    rumor has it that Argent Mortgage will be out by Feb 1

    http://forum.brokeroutpost.com/loans/forum/2/89049.htm

    Argent Mortgage Company is a leading non-conforming mortgage lender providing the most competitive mortgage loans in the industry.

  210. njrebear says:

    http://investor.housevalues.com/ReleaseDetail.cfm?ReleaseID=227004&Section=Investor

    “…Additionally, HouseValues announced that it is exiting the mortgage lead generation business and is scaling back or eliminating initiatives that are not critical to its real estate agent customers. These reductions only affect the company’s Kirkland headquarters and are expected to result in an overall reduction of the company’s workforce by about 12 percent or 60 employees. HouseValues “

  211. Al says:

    listentothecrybabywannabehomeowners Says:
    January 25th, 2007 at 8:41 pm
    MLS# 2315051, OLP: $437,500, SP: $440,000 DOM: 12, CD: 12/10/2006

    MLS# 2313265, OLP: $729,000, SP: $735,000, DOM: 34, CD: 12/11/2006

    MLS: 2331922, OLP: $414,000, SP: 417,923, DOM: 24, CD: 12/4/2006

    Three examples of property selling above asking price in one month or less.

    WAAAAAAAAAAAAAAH!!!

    So you were able to find 3!!! properties?? and how are the sales prices relate to comps from last year??? – 20% I assume?? thats why they have sold so fast?

  212. thatbigwindow says:

    “listentothecrybabywannabehomeowners Says:
    January 25th, 2007 at 8:41 pm
    MLS# 2315051, OLP: $437,500, SP: $440,000 DOM: 12, CD: 12/10/2006

    MLS# 2313265, OLP: $729,000, SP: $735,000, DOM: 34, CD: 12/11/2006

    MLS: 2331922, OLP: $414,000, SP: 417,923, DOM: 24, CD: 12/4/2006

    Three examples of property selling above asking price in one month or less.

    WAAAAAAAAAAAAAAH!!!

    Okay, lets play!

    MLS Sold Price Org Price var dom
    2639520 $455,000.00 $475,000.00 ($20,000.00) 24
    2639399 $355,000.00 $375,000.00 ($20,000.00) 47
    2641778 $510,000.00 $530,000.00 ($20,000.00) 43
    2645744 $385,000.00 $405,000.00 ($20,000.00) 7
    2641184 $855,000.00 $875,000.00 ($20,000.00) 26
    2640464 $410,000.00 $430,000.00 ($20,000.00) 31
    2645106 $975,000.00 $995,000.00 ($20,000.00) 8
    2643644 $1,575,000.00 $1,595,000.00 ($20,000.00) 20
    2642889 $305,000.00 $325,000.00 ($20,000.00) 32
    2639189 $470,000.00 $490,900.00 ($20,900.00) 35
    2639524 $438,000.00 $459,900.00 ($21,900.00) 61
    2641370 $325,000.00 $347,000.00 ($22,000.00) 9
    2642096 $467,000.00 $489,000.00 ($22,000.00) 21
    2643433 $495,000.00 $517,500.00 ($22,500.00) 34
    2640874 $525,000.00 $547,777.00 ($22,777.00) 48
    2640844 $554,000.00 $577,000.00 ($23,000.00) 35
    2640171 $505,000.00 $529,000.00 ($24,000.00) 49
    2640091 $375,000.00 $399,000.00 ($24,000.00) 29
    2638848 $495,000.00 $519,000.00 ($24,000.00) 73
    2638607 $575,000.00 $599,000.00 ($24,000.00) 40
    2644219 $445,000.00 $469,000.00 ($24,000.00) 16
    2640263 $371,000.00 $395,000.00 ($24,000.00) 13
    2638519 $1,275,000.00 $1,299,000.00 ($24,000.00) 14
    2641546 $365,000.00 $389,000.00 ($24,000.00) 38
    2640981 $502,500.00 $527,000.00 ($24,500.00) 48
    2639461 $335,000.00 $359,900.00 ($24,900.00) 52
    2643383 $355,000.00 $379,900.00 ($24,900.00) 50
    2642218 $525,000.00 $549,900.00 ($24,900.00) 20
    2703453 $1,100,000.00 $1,125,000.00 ($25,000.00) 13
    2641942 $415,000.00 $440,000.00 ($25,000.00) 33
    2641416 $375,000.00 $400,000.00 ($25,000.00) 51
    2639464 $397,000.00 $424,750.00 ($27,750.00) 43
    2641984 $360,000.00 $389,000.00 ($29,000.00) 37
    2639824 $600,000.00 $629,000.00 ($29,000.00) 18
    2640046 $320,000.00 $349,000.00 ($29,000.00) 36
    2639482 $430,000.00 $459,000.00 ($29,000.00) 28
    2702428 $450,000.00 $479,000.00 ($29,000.00) 8
    2640730 $470,000.00 $499,900.00 ($29,900.00) 37
    2641809 $529,000.00 $559,900.00 ($30,900.00) 42
    2640662 $400,000.00 $432,950.00 ($32,950.00) 16
    2638716 $465,000.00 $498,000.00 ($33,000.00) 37
    2640194 $465,000.00 $498,000.00 ($33,000.00) 61
    2643656 $515,000.00 $549,000.00 ($34,000.00) 5
    2638533 $395,000.00 $429,000.00 ($34,000.00) 45
    2640106 $345,000.00 $379,000.00 ($34,000.00) 30
    2641393 $465,000.00 $499,000.00 ($34,000.00) 40
    2640305 $365,000.00 $399,000.00 ($34,000.00) 55
    2639521 $415,000.00 $449,000.00 ($34,000.00) 1
    2639311 $435,000.00 $469,900.00 ($34,900.00) 72
    2640284 $475,000.00 $509,900.00 ($34,900.00) 35
    2639909 $405,000.00 $439,900.00 ($34,900.00) 25
    2639012 $505,000.00 $539,900.00 ($34,900.00) 61
    2640735 $415,000.00 $450,000.00 ($35,000.00) 30
    2640661 $440,000.00 $475,000.00 ($35,000.00) 87
    2638640 $440,000.00 $475,000.00 ($35,000.00) 67
    2642675 $442,000.00 $479,000.00 ($37,000.00) 13
    2641372 $500,000.00 $539,000.00 ($39,000.00) 38
    2639491 $480,000.00 $519,900.00 ($39,900.00) 25
    2640978 $525,000.00 $564,999.00 ($39,999.00) 23
    2643814 $640,000.00 $680,000.00 ($40,000.00) 40
    2641557 $448,000.00 $488,000.00 ($40,000.00) 22
    2639117 $425,000.00 $469,000.00 ($44,000.00) 65
    2641345 $355,000.00 $399,000.00 ($44,000.00) 46
    2641638 $375,000.00 $419,000.00 ($44,000.00) 16
    2640011 $555,000.00 $599,000.00 ($44,000.00) 56
    2641687 $755,000.00 $799,900.00 ($44,900.00) 18
    2638567 $532,500.00 $579,000.00 ($46,500.00) 17
    2638790 $740,000.00 $787,878.00 ($47,878.00) 70
    2639169 $2,200,000.00 $2,249,000.00 ($49,000.00) 30
    2639077 $500,000.00 $549,007.00 ($49,007.00) 23
    2639601 $550,000.00 $599,900.00 ($49,900.00) 48
    2640411 $500,000.00 $549,900.00 ($49,900.00) 34
    2641308 $500,000.00 $549,900.00 ($49,900.00) 79
    2643004 $385,000.00 $439,000.00 ($54,000.00) 56
    2642047 $642,500.00 $699,000.00 ($56,500.00) 19
    2647417 $265,000.00 $322,000.00 ($57,000.00) 45
    2642888 $412,000.00 $469,900.00 ($57,900.00) 36
    2639986 $380,000.00 $439,900.00 ($59,900.00) 72
    2638528 $540,000.00 $599,900.00 ($59,900.00) 94
    2642415 $395,000.00 $459,000.00 ($64,000.00) 39
    2639385 $535,000.00 $599,000.00 ($64,000.00) 48
    2644002 $335,000.00 $399,000.00 ($64,000.00) 20
    2641154 $730,000.00 $799,000.00 ($69,000.00) 25
    2640581 $880,000.00 $950,000.00 ($70,000.00) 29
    2639676 $728,000.00 $798,000.00 ($70,000.00) 42
    2638778 $825,000.00 $899,000.00 ($74,000.00) 63
    2641285 $900,000.00 $974,900.00 ($74,900.00) 39
    2640829 $730,000.00 $824,900.00 ($94,900.00) 66
    2639757 $700,000.00 $795,000.00 ($95,000.00) 42
    2642192 $1,250,000.00 $1,350,000.00 ($100,000.00) 52
    2639912 $640,000.00 $799,000.00 ($159,000.00) 35
    2640147 $1,057,500.00 $1,269,000.00 ($211,500.00) 49
    2640719 $2,245,000.00 $2,489,900.00 ($244,900.00) 74

    WAAAAAAH to that!

Comments are closed.