Sat 24 Mar 2007
Welcome to another edition of Lowball!
Lowball! takes a look at home sales from a different perspective. For those new to Lowball!, a lowball offer is when a buyer offers a significantly lower bid than asking in hopes that the seller accepts the offer. We take a list of home sales from the past month and pick out the sales that have the highest percentage difference between original list price and selling price.
The purpose of Lowball! is to show buyers that the market has changed and buyers now have considerably more leverage than sellers. Just a short time ago, Lowball! offers would have been laughed at and discarded, however, not any more. The fact that so many under-asking offers are being accepted is clear proof that the market is changing.
The first table below contains Lowball sales of 20% or greater off the Original List Price.
| MLS | Town | OLP | LP | SP | % off OLP | $ off OLP |
| 2223440 | Hardyston Twp. | $179,900 | $143,000 | $95,000 | 47.2% | $84,900 |
| 2277922 | Independence Twp. | $450,000 | $275,000 | $250,000 | 44.4% | $200,000 |
| 2336286 | Phillipsburg Town | $159,900 | $115,000 | $90,000 | 43.7% | $69,900 |
| 2321999 | Elizabeth City | $479,900 | $479,900 | $290,000 | 39.6% | $189,900 |
| 2226538 | Blairstown Twp. | $650,000 | $495,000 | $425,000 | 34.6% | $225,000 |
| 2327755 | Branchburg Twp. | $450,000 | $399,900 | $300,000 | 33.3% | $150,000 |
| 2354690 | Mendham Twp. | $1,200,000 | $1,200,000 | $825,000 | 31.3% | $375,000 |
| 2275609 | Stillwater Twp. | $239,900 | $199,900 | $168,000 | 30.0% | $71,900 |
| 2360200 | Wanaque Boro | $450,000 | $450,000 | $320,000 | 28.9% | $130,000 |
| 2245985 | Mahwah Twp. | $775,000 | $599,900 | $555,000 | 28.4% | $220,000 |
| 2277032 | Andover Twp. | $3,500,000 | $2,900,000 | $2,538,000 | 27.5% | $962,000 |
| 2256538 | Lake Mohawk Sparta | $2,500,900 | $2,000,000 | $1,815,000 | 27.4% | $685,900 |
| 2270544 | Berkeley Heights Twp. | $599,900 | $449,999 | $440,000 | 26.7% | $159,900 |
| 2241307 | Hillside Twp. | $380,000 | $285,000 | $280,000 | 26.3% | $100,000 |
| 2268877 | Livingston Twp. | $849,900 | $669,900 | $630,000 | 25.9% | $219,900 |
| 2336323 | Hopatcong Boro | $184,500 | $144,900 | $138,000 | 25.2% | $46,500 |
| 2274990 | Millburn Twp. | $3,495,000 | $2,800,000 | $2,620,000 | 25.0% | $875,000 |
| 2270841 | Roselle Boro | $259,000 | $225,000 | $195,000 | 24.7% | $64,000 |
| 2316407 | Montgomery Twp. | $1,680,000 | $1,399,900 | $1,265,000 | 24.7% | $415,000 |
| 2310373 | Hackettstown Town | $329,900 | $274,900 | $250,000 | 24.2% | $79,900 |
| 2311859 | Lake Mohawk Sparta | $369,000 | $279,900 | $279,900 | 24.1% | $89,100 |
| 2313471 | Chatham Twp. | $1,595,000 | $1,299,000 | $1,210,000 | 24.1% | $385,000 |
| 2337539 | Roxbury Twp. | $294,900 | $275,900 | $225,000 | 23.7% | $69,900 |
| 2235213 | Newark City | $249,000 | $199,900 | $190,000 | 23.7% | $59,000 |
| 2276023 | Montclair Twp. | $379,000 | $299,900 | $290,000 | 23.5% | $89,000 |
| 2329206 | Mount Olive Twp. | $319,000 | $299,000 | $244,300 | 23.4% | $74,700 |
| 2267386 | Lebanon Twp. | $675,000 | $525,000 | $520,000 | 23.0% | $155,000 |
| 2320682 | Kinnelon Boro | $630,000 | $579,900 | $490,000 | 22.2% | $140,000 |
| 2334078 | Union Twp. | $385,000 | $300,000 | $300,000 | 22.1% | $85,000 |
| 2307467 | Bridgewater Twp. | $389,900 | $354,900 | $305,000 | 21.8% | $84,900 |
| 2306015 | Lambertville City | $575,000 | $530,000 | $450,000 | 21.7% | $125,000 |
| 2274266 | West Milford Twp. | $277,900 | $248,700 | $217,500 | 21.7% | $60,400 |
| 2313686 | Bernards Twp. | $695,000 | $555,000 | $545,000 | 21.6% | $150,000 |
| 2297442 | Riverdale Boro | $389,900 | $339,900 | $306,500 | 21.4% | $83,400 |
| 2283259 | Harding Twp. | $635,000 | $585,000 | $500,000 | 21.3% | $135,000 |
| 2299694 | Lafayette Twp. | $399,000 | $349,000 | $315,000 | 21.1% | $84,000 |
| 2317388 | Hillside Twp. | $329,000 | $269,000 | $260,000 | 21.0% | $69,000 |
| 2313119 | Glen Ridge Boro Twp. | $499,000 | $399,900 | $395,000 | 20.8% | $104,000 |
| 2319872 | Piscataway Twp. | $325,000 | $275,000 | $260,000 | 20.0% | $65,000 |
| 2287921 | Franklin Twp. | $450,000 | $350,000 | $360,000 | 20.0% | $90,000 |
| 2313250 | Belleville Twp. | $349,900 | $299,900 | $280,000 | 20.0% | $69,900 |
The second table below contains Lowball sales of $200,000 or greater off the Original List Price.
| MLS | Town | OLP | LP | SP | % off OLP | $ off OLP |
| 2277032 | Andover Twp. | $3,500,000 | $2,900,000 | $2,538,000 | 27.5% | $962,000 |
| 2274990 | Millburn Twp. | $3,495,000 | $2,800,000 | $2,620,000 | 25.0% | $875,000 |
| 2256538 | Lake Mohawk Sparta | $2,500,900 | $2,000,000 | $1,815,000 | 27.4% | $685,900 |
| 2316407 | Montgomery Twp. | $1,680,000 | $1,399,900 | $1,265,000 | 24.7% | $415,000 |
| 2279300 | Tewksbury Twp. | $2,395,000 | $2,195,000 | $2,000,000 | 16.5% | $395,000 |
| 2257317 | Mountain Lakes Boro | $2,495,000 | $2,250,000 | $2,100,000 | 15.8% | $395,000 |
| 2313471 | Chatham Twp. | $1,595,000 | $1,299,000 | $1,210,000 | 24.1% | $385,000 |
| 2332355 | Westfield Twp. | $2,375,000 | $1,999,999 | $1,999,999 | 15.8% | $375,001 |
| 2354690 | Mendham Twp. | $1,200,000 | $1,200,000 | $825,000 | 31.3% | $375,000 |
| 2109338 | Mendham Boro | $1,975,000 | $1,650,000 | $1,600,000 | 19.0% | $375,000 |
| 2252469 | Mountain Lakes Boro | $1,899,000 | $1,699,000 | $1,550,000 | 18.4% | $349,000 |
| 2276661 | Mountain Lakes Boro | $1,499,000 | $1,275,000 | $1,200,000 | 19.9% | $299,000 |
| 2317707 | Upper Saddle River Boro | $1,799,000 | $1,599,000 | $1,500,000 | 16.6% | $299,000 |
| 2102487 | Westfield Twp. | $1,575,000 | $1,449,000 | $1,290,000 | 18.1% | $285,000 |
| 2329236 | Summit City | $1,500,000 | $1,500,000 | $1,225,000 | 18.3% | $275,000 |
| 2323368 | Franklin Lakes Boro | $3,699,900 | $3,699,900 | $3,450,000 | 6.8% | $249,900 |
| 2315389 | Montclair Twp. | $1,999,000 | $1,849,000 | $1,750,000 | 12.5% | $249,000 |
| 2226538 | Blairstown Twp. | $650,000 | $495,000 | $425,000 | 34.6% | $225,000 |
| 2245985 | Mahwah Twp. | $775,000 | $599,900 | $555,000 | 28.4% | $220,000 |
| 2268877 | Livingston Twp. | $849,900 | $669,900 | $630,000 | 25.9% | $219,900 |
| 2292671 | Morris Twp. | $1,299,000 | $1,099,000 | $1,080,000 | 16.9% | $219,000 |
| 2318709 | Warren Twp. | $1,434,500 | $1,299,000 | $1,219,000 | 15.0% | $215,500 |
| 2322157 | Westfield Twp. | $1,199,900 | $1,095,000 | $995,000 | 17.1% | $204,900 |
| 2276129 | Wyckoff Twp. | $2,599,999 | $2,599,999 | $2,399,000 | 7.7% | $200,999 |
| 2277922 | Independence Twp. | $450,000 | $275,000 | $250,000 | 44.4% | $200,000 |
Caveat Emptor!
Posted at 7:49 Jim? Sleeping late?I’m with Chifi on this one, Slacker!
KL
Yeah, I can’t seem to recover from the early DST change.
For the folks looking for the spreadsheet:
http://njrereport.com/files/Sales-Mar07.xls
jb
I’d like everyone to take a look at the spreadsheet and notice the relationship between Days on Market and % off OLP.
1) Homes that are priced right will sell.
2) They will sell quickly.
3) They will sell for asking, or over.
Homes that are overpriced will not sell, they will sit and stagnate until the seller capitulates.
jb
Can anyone point me to some details on MLS 2275609? thanks!
MLS 2275609 - Stillwater, NJ
977 MOUNT BENEVOLENCE
70×170 lot
Smaller home 2/1
Remarks: LARGER THAN IT APPEARS. CONVENIENT LOCATION/BLUE RIBBON SCHOOL/NICELY LANDSCAPED LEVEL LOT. 1ST FLOOR MBR /FORMAL DR/ PANTRY - LAUNDRY ROOM OFF KITCHEN. BEAUTIFUL FIELDSTONE FP- PELLET STOVE INSERT
Does this cover all sales ( listed with the County ) or only realtor sales. So all the side deals in Fort Lee might not be listed?
Thanks! Is there anyway to get a picture of this property?
BTW, the average (for what it’s worth) % of OLP for all properties in the spreadsheet is 6.3%. DOM averages out to 87 days.
RP,
This is GSMLS only, not NJMLS, so you won’t find alot of Bergen included here.
jb
washingtonpost.com: House of Cards !!!
READ http://www.washingtonpost.com/wp-dyn/content/article/2007/03/22/AR2007032200666.html
Can anyone provide more details on listing#2296466?
In general what is the best way to find details about a listing given a listing# on this site?
February EXISTING HOME SALES down bigtime vs. year/year !!!
READ
The NAR f*cks over the gullible MSM and sheeple, leads them to believe used home sales were up last month. That was NOT the case.
http://housingpanic.blogspot.com/2007/03/nar-fcks-over-gullible-msm-and-sheeple.html
Dubious NAR report shows home sales continue to crater, off 3.7% vs. last year, while unsold inventory explodes by another 763,000 units and median sales price (without incentives) is down 7.6% from peak
February used home sales (per the dubious NAR numbers) were supposedly 387,000 units, vs. 402,000 units February 2006, down 3.7%. Inventory is now at 3,748,000, vs. 2,985,000 in February 2006, up 763,000 unwanted homes, or 25.6%. And the median sales price (without cash back or incentives) in February of $212,800 is down $17,400 from the July 2006 peak.
Thanks for including the spreadsheet JB.
Seeing several realtor relists in there, which means the ‘Original List Price’ is much higher for several listings.
Sad that consumers have to track all this info manually to avoid being deceived…
Adding to post #13, an example:
217 White Oak Ridge Rd, Short Hills
May 2, 2006 - $939,000 (MLS 2273624)
May 27, 2006 - $915,000
Jun 25, 2006 - WITHDRAWN
Jun 27, 2006 - $875,000 (MLS 2293298)
Sep 13, 2006 - $849,900
Oct 10, 2006 - $819,900
Nov 1, 2006 - WITHDRAWN
Jan 31, 2007 - $789,000 (MLS 2369613)
Feb 06, 2007 - Attorney Review
Feb 12, 2007 - Under Contract
Mar 21, 2007 - Closed @ $789,000
Oh, and realtor’s MLS system indicates ‘Days on Market’ at 14 days, when in fact it was over 300 days.
JB, Good stuff!
btw would you have any data on Monmouth that you’d like to share?
JB - could you give me the address of listing number 2317707 in the March Lowball report? Thanks!
JB - could you give me the address of MLS listing # 2317707 in your Lowball! report?
This is great info. I’ve been tracking Hawthorne for 8 mos. — trynig to move back there after leaving for gray Seattle 4 yrs ago. Did you track values for Feb?