for example, if a home is on the market for 30 days, it will sell for 0% off OLP; 60+ days: 0% – 5%; 90+ days: 5% – 10%, etc., etc. I have the analysis going up to nearly 50% off of OLP for homes on the market +200 days.

i can only imagine that in some little real estate training manual there is a table with a similar scale letting these used car salesmen know when and by how much to “sell” the seller on when an offer is on the table.

Sales have slowed a little it seems in my area but like we began to see last year it wasnt because of demand it was because people had a hard time selling up north or in more expensive areas to be able to move to the area. Otherwise there is new going up all over the place still.

Thats North Carolina.

I do hear Tennesee which was booming for a bit has run into trouble and might be on a major decline. I think people may have run to TN because of the cost but didnt have anything lined up to capitalize on it.

The cookie cutter homes built in the last 5 years are nothing more than the name. I know many contractors and they all agree. The built these homes with 2 X 4′s not even 2 X 6′s. These fools from NJ & NYC are not educated on home designs & problems and they didn’t even know what super’s were talking about. The lehigh valley is a large swamp. The name Bear Swamp is given to Lower Macungie township, that’s where the largest number of these homes were and are being built. A 10 year old would have enought common sense to understand why you shouldn’t built there. The products used in building these homes are from Odd lots at the end of manufacturing runs. 10 years from now when the major home problems start, you won’t be able to match up shingles, roofs, siding because they don’t make them any longer. This NJREFUGEE is lost man, Our area is getting hit hard at the moment. We are the quintessential “BUBBLE MARKET”.

Perfect example:

Minor Street, Emmaus, PA. There is a string of rowhomes built in the early 80′s. They were selling 3 bedroom 2 bath townhouses from between 170-210 from 2004-2005. Prior to that in 2000 the averaged around 85-95k. In 2006 they were selling for 170 and that took 6 months to 1 year. The same homes are now selling for 149k and nobody is buying. These homes are going to sell for 120k and that’s about average. Currently one is for sale for 149k the owners lived there since the 80′s. The next door neighbor bought for 185k in 2006 and is asking 185k. Guess what if they 149k is getting no offers imagine what the 185k will do? Why doesn’t anyone talk about the 30% in foreclosures for the Lehigh & Northampton counties. Oh wait that doesn’t go along with the Bias & Lies the local newspaper won’t print. I don’t really care either way. I have owned my home for a long long time. It’s these fools who bought into this problem that’s funny. The average commuter is simply a blue collar worker from NJ who couldn’t afford where they lived & moved. The problem is they are getting burned with prices. If people simply moved to get lower home prices it would be a national trend. Instead it’s just a fools gold and when someone spends 3-5 hours a day on the road to get to and from work, it’s called STUPID. Stupid is as Stupid does and these commuters are going to bankrpupt the economy.

Whay do you say the homes built in the last 5 years were “built like crap”? Have you heard a lot of complaints?

You lose, now take your sorry ass back on the highway to NJ.

JB

Thanks again. You have a few drinks coming from me should you ever schedule another get together.

I’ve said repeatedly that the high end of housing is slowing in the LV while price points below 200K are moving just fine. Again, you like to create strawman arguements.

Here’s yet another article from the “liars” at the Morning Call. Why do you insist on being so selective in what you choose to read and quote from the Morning Call? Why do you want to deny that our area is growing?

Valley of the malls
The region is in the midst of biggest burst of building since 1970s.

By Kurt Blumenau Of The Morning Call

As the average Lehigh Valley resident gets wealthier, mall developers are jostling to provide plenty of places to spend that money.

Now, the region finds itself in the midst of what could be called its second golden age of mall-building. Three malls and one major mall expansion are either complete or in line to be built over the next two years, the biggest burst of major retail building since the mid-1970s.

The Promenade Shops at Saucon Valley (open)

• Banana Republic
• Brooks Brothers
• Fresh Market
• L.L. Bean
• J.E. Caldwell & Co.
• J. Jill
• Jos. A. Bank Clothiers
• Limited Too
• Lucky Brand
• Old Navy
• Rave Motion Pictures
• Sage
• Starbucks
• Velvet

Lehigh Valley Mall addition (under construction)

• Ann Taylor
• Coach
• Coldwater Creek
• Pottery Barn
• Sephora
• Sharper Image
• White House/Black Market
• Williams-Sonoma

BethWorks Now center (proposed)

• Barneys New York
• Eddie Bauer
• Ralph Lauren
• Salvatore Ferragamo
• Tommy Hilfiger

The Summit Lehigh Valley (proposed)

• Best Buy
• Muvico Theaters
• On The Border Mexican Grill & Cantina
• P.F. Chang’s China Bistro
• Target

Note: Stores listed for proposed malls have been announced by builders or retailers

Source: Morning Call research Related PhotosLehigh Valley Area Shopping, Past and Present
(The Morning Call) Lehigh Valley Local Links

The Promenade Shops at Saucon Valley, a ”lifestyle center” upscale mall, opened in the fall in Upper Saucon Township. An upscale addition to the Lehigh Valley Mall in Whitehall will welcome its first shoppers this summer. And work should begin this year on The Summit Lehigh Valley, a large Bethlehem Township mall, and on a high-end shopping center in the BethWorks casino project in Bethlehem.

The closest comparison for major mall construction is the period between 1973 and 1976, when Lehigh Valley and Palmer Park malls opened and the Hess’s South department store was expanded to become the South Mall.

The Valley also saw a retail building boom in the late 1980s, but most of those projects were smaller strip centers of the type that line MacArthur Road in Whitehall Township.

What’s driving the new boom? Again, the region’s improved demographics have a lot to do with it. As the Valley’s average income and education levels rise, the area becomes attractive to a new batch of retailers, such as Williams-Sonoma and Coldwater Creek.

The Valley’s mall explosion also coincides with a national craze for lifestyle centers, the industry name for open-air malls with extensive landscaping, town-center ambience and, generally, upscale stores. All four of the new projects are based on that model.

Half of the country’s 150 lifestyle centers have been built in the last five years, according to the International Council of Shopping Centers trade group.

But retail industry watchers warn that a shiny, new facade or hot, new format do not guarantee success. Some experts doubt all four malls will be able to land enough must-shop stores to establish themselves. At worst, the malls that fall behind in the leasing race will fade away; at best, they will operate in the shadows of the winners.

That point is underlined by shoppers such as Kathy Kutoloski, a lifelong Valley resident who remembers when the wave of ’70s malls supplanted downtown shopping districts. For Kutoloski, the stores make the mall, first and foremost.

”It isn’t about the location or how far we have to drive,” said Kutoloski, of North Whitehall Township. ”It is about the quality of stores and the merchandise offered.”

A Valleywide mall makeover

The re-malling of the Valley began to take shape in fall 2003, when plans for the Promenade Shops and the Summit Lehigh Valley were unveiled within two months of each other. Reports of a Lehigh Valley Mall addition began circulating the following spring, while the casino retail center was announced in December 2004.

All four promised a new class of national chains that had not yet reached the Valley, stores such as L.L. Bean and Pottery Barn and restaurants such as P.F. Chang’s China Bistro.

New arrivals in the Valley — especially those from New York, New Jersey and Philadelphia — demanded that variety, longtime real estate broker Amy Hawley said.

”You’ve seen a significant population increase in the Valley,” said Hawley, founder and president of Hawley Realty. ”There’s an influence from the migration from metro New York, where the shoppers are used to having centers that have a lot more of a tenant mix.”

The new projects range from 110,000 square feet at the Lehigh Valley Mall addition to 900,000 square feet for the Summit. The Lehigh Valley Mall is currently the region’s largest, at about

1 million square feet before the addition.

For a time, it wasn’t clear how many of the newly proposed centers would be built. The casino mall, in particular, stayed on hold for two years as its builders waited to see whether they would receive a state-issued slots license.

Now, though, the Valley has a solid chance of getting all four. The Promenade is open, and the Lehigh Valley Mall addition is taking shape. The casino backers have their slots license. And the Summit’s backers got approval this year to buy out-of-town liquor licenses for planned restaurants, one of several steps indicating the mall is proceeding toward a groundbreaking….

I noticed your attempt to quote only population growth in Lehigh County rather than the Lehigh Valley metropolitan statistical area. That’s an underhanded little trick (using selective and incomplete information) that I’m going to call you on. Here’s the article from the Morning Call regarding our population boom. Like I said, I don’t want our area to get too crowded either, but I’m not prepared to put out a bunch of lies to discourage folks:

“Population boom

Just three Northeast metropolitan regions added more people this decade than the Lehigh Valley

By Gregory Karp Of The Morning Call

The Lehigh Valley smashed through the 800,000 population mark during 2006 and ranks among the very fastest growing regions in the Northeast, according to Census data to be released today.

Population growth has caused a before-your-eyes metamorphosis of the region in a few years.

Since the last full Census in 2000, the Lehigh Valley added 59,942 people, nearly the same as the Boston metropolitan area. The nearly 60,000 people are more than twice the population of Easton, and growth is on pace to add a record-breaking 100,000 people this decade.

Officially, the Valley’s estimated population in mid-2006 was 800,336. The Census Bureau defines the Lehigh Valley metro area as the counties of Lehigh, Northampton, Carbon and Warren, N.J.

Across the Northeast, only the major metropolitan regions of New York, Philadelphia and Boston added more people than the Lehigh Valley this decade. And the so-called Allentown-Bethlehem-Easton metro region ranked No. 1 among Northeast regions of fewer than 1 million people.

”The magnitude of the growth appears larger than I expected,” said Kamran Afshar, an economist who studies the Lehigh Valley economy. ”A 60,000 change is huge.”

The historic increase amounts to 8.1 percent population growth in just six years. By percentage, the Lehigh Valley ranks No. 2 among metro regions in the nine-state Northeast. It was second only to York, a region half as big as the Lehigh Valley that grew 9.1 percent.

Population growth this decade has been fueled almost exclusively by the migration of people fleeing high-cost areas of New York, New Jersey and, to a lesser extent, Philadelphia. The new residents came in search of a lower cost of living, especially less expensive homes. Many were able to keep their high-paying jobs in New Jersey or suburban Philadelphia and trade off a lengthy commute for a richer lifestyle.

While the Valley’s growth is extraordinary in the densely populated and slow-growing Northeast, it’s less impressive compared with all U.S. regions, which include rapidly growing areas in the South and West. The Lehigh Valley region ranked 56th of 361 metro U.S. regions — the top 15 percent — in number of people added this decade and 113th — the top one-third — by percentage growth.

But among its geographical peers in the Northeast, the Lehigh Valley has been a premier destination. In 2006 alone, the Lehigh Valley added 10,641 people.

Northampton County was the primary driver of growth, increasing population 9.1 percent, or about 24,000 people, since 2000. Lehigh County grew by nearly as much, about 23,500, or 7.5 percent. Other components of the metro area, Carbon County and Warren County, N.J., added a combined 12,000 people.

The effects of rapid population growth are many and varied.

The swarm of people ignited the Lehigh Valley housing market, which sizzled even hotter than most places in America during the recent housing boom. Retail development exploded and included higher-end retailers and a slew of restaurants. Total income for area residents rose far faster than the national average. The influx even makes the Lehigh Valley appear more educated, statistically, because many of the new residents have college degrees.

”It appears to be helping our economy, in terms of keeping the housing market stronger than it would have been otherwise,” Afshar said. ”There is no question the growth of disposable income in our area is pretty strong.”

The rise in population has also meant crowding in schools, requiring expensive school expansions. It has meant more traffic on Lehigh Valley roads and loss of open space that longtime residents cherish — cornfields being plowed under to make way for housing and retail developments……..”