From Reuters:
Housing market bottom hoped for, not expected
Investors hope the next round of results from U.S. home builders, starting on Thursday, will show that the slump in the housing market is abating, but realistically they expect no sign of a bottom yet.
In fact, many investors and analysts expect the market downturn — caused by a glut of homes for sale, tighter lending standards and weak demand — to worsen until at least the second half of this year.
“I think it’s a pretty severe downturn,” said Robert Curran, Fitch lead home building analyst. “Could it be more severe still? Obviously.”
JMP Securities analyst Jim Wilson said he does not expect to see any sign the market for new homes has reached bottom.
“The builders are the last ones to see that, because the resale market drives the new home market,” he said.
The resale market is comprised of foreclosed houses; homes of subprime borrowers, which have poor credit histories, nearing foreclosure; and “regular people who need to move,” Wilson said. These homes comprise about 85 percent of the U.S. housing market.
“You have to start seeing (that) the resale market is seeing less inventory, and so far it’s not. It’s seeing more,” he said.
…
“There’s way too much resale inventory sitting out there that hasn’t been and needs to be marked down in price and needs to clear before you have any need of new homes,” Wilson said.
…
Fitch Ratings recently estimated that U.S. new home sales this year would fall by 11.5 percent from 1,053,000 houses last year to about 900,000 homes.Without the mortgage mess, the forecast would be 7 to 7.5 percent, Fitch’s Curran said.
Meanwhile, the year’s supply of new houses is expected to be about 1.2 million, he said.
As a result, home builders will add 300,000 homes to the current overhang of new homes for sale, Curran forecast, adding that the overhang is already troubling at about two months worth of sales.
From the AP:
Pulte Homes Sees Loss in 1Q
Pulte Homes Inc., one of the nation’s biggest homebuilders, said Wednesday it expects a first-quarter loss, as new orders for homes declined amid a sagging home market.
The company reported a preliminary loss from continuing operations of 34 cents to 38 cents per share. The company said it included in that loss estimate about 32 cents to 34 cents per share in losses from land-related charges and the reduced value of assets.
…
Net new orders fell 21 percent in the quarter to 8,499, Pulte said, and backlog as of March 31 totaled 13,334 homes, valued at $4.7 billion.
Homes closed decreased 37 percent to 5,420, and average sales price per home fell 2 percent to $330,000, it said.
Pulte Homes warns of deeper-than-expected losses
By Dan Gallagher
Last Update: 6:56 PM ET Apr 18, 2007
SAN FRANCISCO (MarketWatch) — Pulte Homes (PHM : pulte homes inc com
News , chart , profile , more
Last: 27.95+1.27+4.76%
4:15am 04/19/2007
PHM27.95, +1.27, +4.8%) warned on Wednesday that losses for the first quarter will come in much deeper than previously anticipated. In a statement, the homebuilder said it expects net loss from continuing operations of between 34 cents and 38 cents a share for the quarter. It had previously expected results to range from break-even to a loss of 10 cents a share. The results will include between $130 million and $140 million in land-impairment charges. Net new orders fell 21% to 8,499 for the quarter. The company blamed a “challenging” housing market for the shortfall
http://www.marketwatch.com/News/Story/Story.aspx?guid=%7b6D3765E8-C813-465B-8EE8-94BE1EDFF73A%7d&siteid=yhoo&dist=yhoo
From MarketWatch:
D.R. Horton’s net falls on charges
D.R. Horton Inc. Thursday said its fiscal second-quarter net income fell to $51.7 million, or 16 cents a share, from $352.8 million, or $1.11 a share a year earlier. The Ft. Worth, Texas-based home builder said its results for the quarter ended March 31 included pre-tax charges of $67.3 million for inventory impairments and $13.9 million for write-offs and costs related to land-option contracts it does not intend to pursue. “Market conditions in the homebuilding industry continue to be challenging in most of our markets as inventory levels of both new and existing homes remain high, and further increases in the use of sales incentives continue to put pressure on profit margins,” said Chairman Donald R. Horton in a statement. The stock closed up 59 cents to $23.04 on Wednesday.
Just took a look at the weather forecast for this weekend, looks fantastic. Sunny, clear, and nearing 70 in North Jersey. Looks like Sunday is going to be one heck of an open house day. Could this finally be the start of the Spring season?
jb
Great article.
People tend to look at small blips in the housing starts and mortgage applications to call a bottom in housing.
The only thing that really matters is existing home inventory and DOM !!
Still have not read the Whitney article. My only comment at this time; has censorship reared its ugly head? Is big brother watching?
The unequaled appeal regarding this site, is its unfettered forum which present views from both sides of the aisle. It worries me that this may have been compromised in some manner.
oh yeah… the warm sunny weather will make me pay an exta 200 thousand more than what it’s worth!
Keep dreaming!
Oops you forgot about those Home Depot flowers and baked cookies!
Still have not read the Whitney article. My only comment at this time; has censorship reared its ugly head? Is big brother watching
Links to some of Whitney’s pieces:
Doomsday for the Greenback
The Economic Tsunami
Housing Bubble Smack-down
The Dollar’s Full System Meltdown
“Shock Therapy” and The Freefalling Dollar
Preparing for the Economic Typhoon
The Great Dollar Crash of ‘07
The Mother of all Bubbles
JB,
Thank you. I have a ton to read. Comments will be forthcoming.
Most of these “affordability” loans would be in the $500+ range which would apply to NJ.
Trillions of dollars of mortgages will reset in 2007 and 2008 are just the primer and the beginning for a real estate downturn that will take real estate prices into an extreme dive beginning in late 2008….The culprit for the extreme dive will be negatively amortized loans…conservative outlook in order to highlight how much trouble we will be in at the end of 2008 even if the optimistic scenario of flattened home prices continues (as opposed to falling home prices).
http://www.inman.com/hstory.aspx?ID=62902
I’m sitting my first open house in about three years this Sunday…should be an interesting opportunity to “examine the patient” (if anyone shows up).
I’m gonna try to get buyers to talk about things like: how long they’ve been looking; how much longer they’re willing to wait for prices to drop further; their general confidence in housing; and, how difficult it’s been for them to sell their current homes.
Or…I’ll be watching a lot of NBA playoffs.
I’m sure everyone has read where Fannie Mae and Freddie Mac have stepped up to the plate and are going to put billions of dollars to work to address the subprime issue. I wonder if the Fannie Mae conforming limit of $417k is going to apply? And if so, does that mean that the homes in the higher end will still be in trouble? That limit wouldn’t apply to the more desirable location in NJ.
China’s #’s;
CPI- + 2.7%
GDP- + 11.1%
Ind Prod- + 17.6%, Wow.
“There’s way too much resale inventory…needs to clear before you have any need of new homes,” Wilson said.
Is there a way to figure out if there are too many homes in the US? Both owned and rented? When will the population catch up with housing?
If I recall NJ is losing more residents than gaining. I don’t know the numbers, but based on the # of condo developments recently we should have more housing than we had 5-10 years ago. That equals excess inventory, today and for years to come.
Am I wrong?
Thank you. I have a ton to read. Comments will be forthcoming.
Whitney’s pieces on the dollar, gold, and housing are all interesting. However, like everything posted here, one must consider the source, the history and agenda of the author, the agenda of the publisher/venue, and whether or not the piece is fact or opinion.
jb
Sunday is going to be one heck of an open house day
Well there will be the ones already scheduled and there will be the make-ups for last sunday.
If clot is doing an open house – April 22, will from now on be known as “Open House Sunday” LOL
Clot
I like your idea, and will try it myself and post the results, but If I am bored – I won’t be watching the NBA Playoffs, my mind will wax poetic about the days events ! (-:
KL
I wonder how the housing bust will affect the jobs that illegal immigrants have mostly in construction. If the construction stops, then what jobs could they seek?
The issue with the Whitney piece yesterday was partly my fault, mainly because I didn’t frame the article properly. Just because a piece makes it on the “front-page” doesn’t mean that I agree with the author, the agenda, or I think the source is credible. Sometimes I’ll post an article as an example of what is going on in the mainstream, or in this case, not so mainstream press. I’ve posted USA Today articles in the past, not because I think their writing is groundbreaking or because I think they are highly credible, but because everyone eating breakfast in a hotel is probably reading it this morning.
Analysis of the economic factors is important, However, analysis of the factors that affect public psychology towards housing is just as important. In order to do this, we’ve got to know what Joe Sixpack sees when he reads the paper, watches TV or surfs the web.
jb
Although I agree with many of Mr. Whitney’s premises, his overreaching, self-important and urgent writing style reminds me of pamphlets from the John Birch society.
I also think his assumption that US economic strength is predicated upon a dominant manufacturing sector (or that any recovery from a dollar-collapse-generated worldwide recession can only be led by manufacturing) is incredibly tunnel-visioned.
The louder prophets of total doom rant, the more people ignore them. There’s no gray with this guy…just black and white. It’s the very definition of polarizing, and I can see how his ideas are so vigorously rejected by some.
Buy this guy a case of grenades, an AK-47 and a cabin in Idaho. He’ll fit right in.
Bergen (14)-
I think you’re ahead of this by a few years. At the end of the Boomers, the population drops markedly. A physical oversupply of housing may be a problem at that point.
However, demographers have noted that the “tear-down” may be an accepted, mainstream concept by that time. A willingness to destroy and replace functionally obsolete housing may alleviate whatever excess inventory exists.
BC (13)-
And, there’s a pretty good chance those numbers are “cooked”…to the downside!
They are the elephant in the room.
The resale market is comprised of foreclosed houses; homes of subprime borrowers, which have poor credit histories, nearing foreclosure; and “regular people who need to move,” Wilson said. These homes comprise about 85 percent of the U.S. housing market.
If true, this is really interesting. It implies that 85% of the homes for sales are offered by individuals negotiating from a substantially weakened position.
This runs counter to some other anecdotal (NAR type) reports, which suggest that many people are just “testing the waters”; hoping to cash in big, but ultimately willing to pull their listing if they don’t hit the jackpot with a full-priced buyer.
If the former is true, it could mean a faster drop in prices, rather than a slow erosion.
bigwindow (17)-
Home invasion.
thatbigwindow [17]
See front pg. article in either yesterdays or Tues. NYT.
Already affecting Cali. Illegal construction workers (roofing, etc.) having to go back to working in the fields at much lower pay. Very little work in the building trades right now, at least in Southern Cal. No one is getting called or hired for jobs.
(the above is a summary from memory) maybe someone can provide a link? (I’m not registered.)
Grim (18)-
Wouldn’t watching Homer Simpson be a more accurate gauge of what Joe Sixpack is thinking?
The Joe Sixpacks I know rarely have thoughts that stray from beer, high-calorie fried food, sex and NASCAR.
Buy this guy a case of grenades, an AK-47 and a cabin in Idaho. He’ll fit right in.
When I need my daily fix I prefer to get it from Richard Daughty (aka The Mogambo Guru).
http://dailyreckoning.com/Writers/MogamboGuru.html
jb
JB [18],
I never read this guy before. Now I’m curious.
No explanation required on my part. You have always been more than forthcoming, stating that you don’t specifically endorse nor oppose a writers specific point of view. You have been more than equitable presenting both sides of the argument. That said, I did not see anything within the framework of that article that caused a controversy. It appeared to me, to be another version of Roubini, Schiff, etc…
I’ll read it, in full, later today.
You know what’s strange is that in Westchester, none of the many open houses were cancelled last week (and I suspect it didn’t matter b/c I believe at one already had an accepted offer and contract), and there are very few on for this weekend. I wonder how it will play out. We are seeing 2 houses with our agent, one in a development with another agent and one open house. It will be interesting to see how many people are out, versus how many have already done their “shopping” for the year.
“Mogambo Guru”
Now that’s a fix. Makes the other bears look like choir boys.
I’m starting to get the feeling that we’re going to get stories about “the bottom” every quarter for the next two years. Probably the first time they don’t write the story the bottom will be in.
Of course if they write it every quarter, at some point they’ll be able to say they called it.
BTW Clot, John Birch Society? I’ve got a feeling a lot of the kids here have no idea what you’re talking about. Of course they can always “use the Google” or pay a visit to Wikipedia if they want to know, and lets face it, the geeks and nerds who hang out here are definitely the kind of people who want to know.
Clot #11
I’m gonna try to get buyers to talk about things like: how long they’ve been looking; how much longer they’re willing to wait for prices to drop further; their general confidence in housing; and, how difficult it’s been for them to sell their current homes.
Or…I’ll be watching a lot of NBA playoffs.
If I ever walked into an open house and was asked those questions by the Realtor showing the home, I would think I was on some new Dateline NBC show where Chris Hanson was going to harass me for not just buying already.
Anyway, my answers would be: Been looking since 2005, looking in earnest since Spring 2006; willing to wait another year or two for price drops although if I see that there are no price drops by years end, will rethink lifestyle choice in total and consider moving outside the NYC-commute-suburbs of NJ (if prices remain flat, eventually inflation catches up to ask and I would buy having saved a much larger down payment but I can’t picture people sitting on a house for three years just so they can get their ask); confidence in housing – I don’t expect to have any real appreciation from a home purchase for at least 7-10 years and don’t consider it part of my overall investment portfolio, its a roof over my head where I get to paint the walls my color of choice, thus, not quite worth current asking prices [Clot won’t even work with buyers like me!!!!]; haven’t tried selling current home but based on the articles JB posted lately, I should still do well as I live in the section of Queens where prices still are appreciating (something to be said for not experiencing the rocket propelled jump in pricing, slow and steady wins the race).
As for the NBA Playoffs, the last open house I went to, the showing agent said to me with mouth stuffed with a sub and while never taking his eyes off the sports program he was watching on TV, “… feel free to walk around”. That was the entire exchange. House was under contract a few days later. Still haven’t seen it close though and its been a few months.
thatbigwindow Says:
April 19th, 2007 at 9:13 am
I wonder how the housing bust will affect the jobs that illegal immigrants have mostly in construction. If the construction stops, then what jobs could they seek?
bigwin: the failsafe is going home…..just watch, there will be a drastic falloff in illegal immigration, and someone will take credit for it
Re: 18
“What Joe Sixpack sees…”
These days it can be pretty tough to get a grip on what Joe is seeing, or more significantly, believing.
While more information than ever is not only out there, but accessible, the amount of misinformation is stunning (and oftentimes self-reinforcing) and for many people it totally overruns reality.
I’m going to cut this off before I start rambling, but at the end of the day there are too many people who lack a foundation of basic law, history, math, and scientific principles to be able to separate the wheat from the chaff. It’s quite sad actually.
Clot [11],
Funny story.
I went to an open house about 3 months ago. There were 2 other couples there. The agent asked me what I thought. I simply stated that it did not work. He started to explain why it was such a great time to buy. I said, I disagree. He asked why. My wife looked at him and said, it was nice meeting you and went to the car. As I was dishing, one couple got into an argument, the wife telling the husband that is exactly what I have been trying to tell you. The other couple looked at each other like deer in headlights.
Is going home the failsafe or was that the plan all along?
Did illegals really come to this country because living in tenaments with 7 strangers and working as slave laborers in construction was better than home?
I’m sure for some it was, but I can’t believe that the same scenario holds true for everyone.
There has to be some percentage of this group that were here simply to play the wage/housing arbitrage game. You come here and work like hell. While the salary is low in local terms, the purchasing power of those dollars are much higher when sent back home.
How many of these folks ever expected to stay here?
jb
#33 Lindsey: Joe six pack, that is I believe the term that is reserved for the blue collar truck driver,carpenter etc. Pretty cluless on most topics except sports, beer and women. HS grad or maybe a GED.
Well what do we call the college educated types, that are just as clueless on most things in life; believe me there ar a lto of them around too.
Re: Whitney…..I know nothing about him or prior authored articles. I just read the passage, and thought it was misleading and ignorant crap with an agenda. The best liars mix elements of the truth into a morass. If you have a casual visitor to the site, I thought it conveyed the wrong impression.
Thanks for the weekend suggestion, drink a six-pack, go to a renovated home with plasma TVs to watch the games of course and proceed to tell them why its a bad time to buy.
Nice cover to the NRA magazine – a neo-nazi view of Mike Bloomberg as an octopus.
I’m sure everyone has read where Fannie Mae and Freddie Mac have stepped up to the plate and are going to put billions of dollars to work to address the subprime issue.
Bernanke last year said he would do this if an emergency arose in the hosing market.
Last year, Bernanke suggested we “consider the possibility that the director might provide some emergency ability to GSEs to make extra purchases during times in which the director judged the housing market to be in distress for some reason” (emphasis added)
So, is the housing market, in Bernanke’s own words, experiencing an “emergency” and under “distress”? What happened to the “orderly cooling” we were promised?
The report from last year is worth a quick read:
https://njrereport.com/index.php/2006/07/20/bernanke-loses-mind/
Bergen 36,
I don’t necessarily think of Joe Sixpack as blue collar anymore, in part I guess because there just aren’t as many blue collars today.
Considering the number of six packs that disappear in college towns across the nation, I don’t think it’s fair to assume Joe doesn’t have a college education.
If it ever was true, I think the days when a college education implied superior thinking ability or greater clarity of thought are long gone.
If you’re a reader of Calculated Risk (and you certainly should be), there’s a great post up there right now where Tanta creates the term “unternerds” and defines it. If you really want to keep Joe Sixpack for the working classes, I guess unternerds could be your term for the ill- and uninformed with college educations.
#41 Lindsey: I will check that out. I agree with you, but I do think that there are many college educated out there who refer to Joe six-pack as the HS grad who does some type of manual labor, and is in a word stupid.
I guess my point is that many fo these so called sophisicated college grads (and I am on myself plus masters,a r just as stupid, but with a veneer of sophisication.
#30 John Birch Society. Haven’t heard that in a long time. My parents (ultra conservative) were members in the 50’s and 60’s
Chi [37],
Still have not read it.
Who does not have an agenda? Can’t that casual visitor come to their own conclusion/s? Don’t the regular visitors to this site warrant more consideration as compared to the casual visitor? Don’t we deserve a chance to decipher, analyze and discuss?
The article may have been misleading. However, that is not the point. You can throw everyone from Grubman, Blodgett, Quattrone, the NAR, lenders, regulators, etc.., into the same category.
When someone decides, upon themself, that a particular article is not worthy of viewership, the appeal of this site becomes compromised, imo. It’s censorship at its best. Your/my garbage may be another individuals treasure.
When will the media start talking about the bottom-line of the average home buyer? Not the bottom, but the bottom-line.
With gas prices expected to hit the roof, daily stuff like eggs (read ethanol) and milk costing more, not talking about the crazy RE taxes it will be one big slave nation trying to meet ends
(reposting ‘cuz of 500 error)
#45 Rent: and of course the just approved 10% fare hike fro NJ Transit effective in June.
Clot #11, Seneca #31,
“I’m gonna try to get buyers to talk about things like: how long they’ve been looking; how much longer they’re willing to wait for prices to drop further; their general confidence in housing; and, how difficult it’s been for them to sell their current homes.”
For the last few months I’ve been an open house junkie and went to an open house last Sunday. The realtor did ask me questions about what I thought about the market. I told her my position which I base on everything I learn here: sellers are unrealistic in their asking price and need to come down at least 20%, and I’m willing to wait until selling prices do; I’m confident that prices will come down due to Alt-A and subprime situation, reduced pool of buyers, high inventory, low affordability; I bought my current home at a good time and can price it aggressively if I need to; and that I believe the high end homes will drastically come down in price.
She remembered me when I was at the open house there a month earlier and she was very upbeat that the $900K+ market was still moving along well. She wasn’t as upbeat this time.
My realtor knows where I stand and doesn’t push or try to sell me at all. She sees me as a very informed buyer. I thank everyone here for that.
Hi Jim,
I couldn’t help wanting to address some of the issues that you raise in your post #35. I came here with a student visa 10 years ago to pursue a PhD, but I see undocumented immigrants every day because of my current line of work (I work as an interpreter for the Federal Courts). There’s all kinds of undocs. and all kinds of fluctuations of the dollar in each different country they come from. Where I was born and raised, in Peru, there was hyperinflation of literally 1000% per year for a while (1987-90) and at that time it was indispensable to save in dollars to protect yourself against the volatility. The local currency was as worthless and undeserving of confidence as the German Mark during the Weimar Republic. Later on, however, after economic-shock policies that caused an 200% overnight spike in unemployment (literally from 8/8/90 when the laws were enacted to the next day) the dollar has remained stable. When the Finance Minister comes on national TV, raises the prices of gas and basic foodstuffs by 800% per decree and then looks steady at the camera and says “may God have mercy on us”, you have every right to be scared. This is no fiction and you can research about it, it happened in Peru on Aug 8th, 1990. The president who decided to go ahead with the shock policy had been in office only for 20 days, and had been elected only because he swore he was NOT going to do it. But, alas, everybody knew it was the only solution. Anyway, after 1990 the dollar has been flat, hovering even below inflation. Stability is no panacea. There is no work available for anybody, from peasants to PhDs. So, Peruvians continue to come here in troves. If we were to get automatic green cards when we set foot like the Cubans do, I’m sure Peruvians would swim all the way here, sure. And Ecuador or Bolivia (were for the last 15 years presidents are serving an average of 2.5 years in their 5 year terms before street riots take them down) don’t do any better. My wife and I put a one-day ad in a Spanish newspaper looking for a babysitter. The pay was decent, but not great. We received more than 200 calls. Some of the people we interviewed had finished college in their respective countries.
Anyway, I got carried away. To answer in short: I think the dream for most poor immigrants, especially after they spend a year and have a test of what a rich country looks like, is to bring their families and stay. In their own countires they would kill for factory jobs that you or I would find demeaning and horrendous, but they aren’t any available. They don’t mind to work like beasts of burden (that’s most likely what they’ve always done) especially if they have the impression that it can lead them somewhere. A house in East Orange, with running water, looks like paradise to them. They don’t know or care where Chatham or Summit are. It is their americanized children who feel demeaned by living in ghettos and feel like shit and get in gangs. Their parents, the wetbacks, couldn’t be happier with their version of the American Dream in East Orange or Newark, etc. Others. of course, save, send money back, build a house in a dusty mexican village and return. There’s all kinds.
Can anyone enlighten me on when the AMT kicks in??
Say a family with one kid, 500K in mortgage and 150K income – will AMT kickin for such a family?? If yes – how much they’ll have to pay above their normal taxes for AMT?
I tried searching the web, but could not find a site which tells exactly how/when this kicks in.
Thanks in advance.
#48 – my understanding is that AMT is just based on income and mortgage, but is also based on your total deductions. the whole thing about AMT is that you dont really know if youre impacted until you do your tax returns.
but if you are impacted, you cant deduct some of your “normal” deductions. i forgot what the limit is.
i guarantee someone else here can explain it much better than i just did.
ARGH!!!!!!
Does anybody know HOW you can confirm that the seller’s agent presented an offer to the seller from a buyer’s agent?
The seller has an offer that was brought in by the seller’s agent (that the seller is going to accept) and I can’t help but feel my offer didn’t make it to the seller because the seller’s agent will have to split the commission.
Rich
Rich: call the seller directly?
About AMT – I think unless someone has the complete algorithm on how it’s calculated it will be difficult to figure out.
I had AMT in 05 but not in 06 although the situation was only marginally different. I think home-office deductions played a role in my case.
correcting my post #49 – it should say “AMT isn’t just based on income and mortgage…”
#51 tbw I posted this on another spot, don’t know if you saw it. I thought you might like to knwo that the Seniors iN River Edge are being villified for allegedly voting no.
No mention however about the dismal tuen out. Where were all the cheer leaders on April 17th?
#50 Rich in NNJ: are you throwing in the towel and buying, or was your offer a low ball? Just curious?
From Bloomberg:
Philadelphia Fed’s Factory Index Is Unchanged at 0.2
Manufacturing in the Philadelphia region stalled this month as shipments slowed and orders languished.
The Federal Reserve Bank of Philadelphia’s general economic index was unchanged at 0.2 in April from March, the bank said today. A positive number signals expansion. The index averaged 8.1 last year.
The report reinforces concern that an extended slowdown in manufacturing will further sap an economy already hobbled by a slump in housing. Federal Reserve policy makers meeting last month cited weakness in business spending as a risk to their outlook for a pickup in the economy later this year.
“Manufacturing is moving sideways,” Michelle Girard, an economist at RBS Greenwich Capital in Greenwich, Connecticut, said before the report. “Firms are working through the process of bringing inventories in line with sales. Until that process runs its course, we won’t see meaningful gains in manufacturing.”
Economists expected the Philadelphia index to rise to 2, the median of 53 forecasts in a Bloomberg News survey. Estimates ranged from minus 5 to 10.
burst (36)-
Call ’em sheeple.
BC Bob Says:
April 19th, 2007 at 10:59 am
Chi [37],
Bost: the stuff was tripe – how many times have I ever requested something
Here’s a new one, list your place for sale 9 months in advance:
http://newyork.craigslist.org/jsy/rfs/314513562.html
#59
The thing that always gets me is the association fee. That’s $300 on top of mortgage and taxes.
for annoying realtors at open houses [including clot, but not KL – oh, and definitely reech]
http://www.bloomberg.com/apps/news?pid=20601109&sid=a_8ni842Cn48&refer=home
Actually I don’t think $300/month is too bad for new construction, especially for a 2 BR. The condo fee for 1Br’s in my 20+ year old building are ~$250.
But I do get your point….
All kidding aside, I should be the last person to point fingers at Joe Sixpack. As several posters here have already intimated, some Joe Sixpacks have a better handle on things than many “college-educated” nincompoops.
I’m on the foundation of a local Vo-Tech HS (which shall remain nameless), and I’m astounded at the high quality of both coursework and students. Our school is very market-responsive, and the curriculum is constantly being upgraded to provide more value to both student and community. The image of vocational education vs. the reality is like night and day. It is no longer the refuge for the short bus and trenchcoat mafia crowd; over 90% of our graduates go on to higher education, and they go with something many traditional HS students don’t have: the ability to make a living. Our Vo-Tech also offers “traditional” core HS classes, so some of our graduates are perfectly able to go on to four-year college programs in engineering, architecture, nursing and pre-med.
What’s the real problem in secondary and higher education today? The problem is…too many kids go to college! As parents continue to believe that college is the only “legitimate” post-HS pursuit for their little ones, the effect of sending waves of marginally intelligent (or interested) students to college has the effects of both dumbing-down the experience and eventually turning scads of subliterate, postadolescent droids loose on the workforce. This terrific article by Charles Murray in a recent WSJ, lays out the dilemma with almost mathematical precision:
http://www.opinionjournal.com/extra/?id=110009535
We all probably know a skilled tradesman who makes way more than local doctors, lawyers and accountants. 5, 10 or 15 years from now, it won’t even be cause for raised eyebrows and jokes…it’ll be the norm.
ChiFi (61)-
Three of my agents carry Tasers at all times. No kidding.
Here’s a post I’d bookmarked about AMT, although not sure if it clears up the confusion:
Top Ten Things that Cause
AMT Liability
An overview of some of the things that may cause you to pay alternative minimum tax (AMT).
http://www.fairmark.com/amt/topten.htm
#50 Rich In NNJ Says:
April 19th, 2007 at 11:34 am
ARGH!!!!!!
Does anybody know HOW you can confirm that the seller’s agent presented an offer to the seller from a buyer’s agent?
The seller has an offer that was brought in by the seller’s agent (that the seller is going to accept) and I can’t help but feel my offer didn’t make it to the seller because the seller’s agent will have to split the commission.
I remember reading somewhere – (couldn’t find my bookmark)-a suggestion to find out who the seller’s agent is on a house that you’re interested in, and approach them. Then the competition between agents for their fees is eliminated, and the agent would be more motivated to work on a negotiated price reduction, since they”d be getting a healthy ‘double’ fee no matter the final price.
Has anyone else heard something like this?
Classic NJ.
I honestly don’t know whether to laugh or be disgusted at this point.
McGreevey’s first course as Kean instructor? Ethics
Star Ledger
James E. McGreevey, who resigned the governorship under a cloud of scandal, has a new job teaching law, ethics and leadership at one of New Jersey’s public colleges.
…
“It seems to me,” Wilson said, “Jim McGreevey teaching law and ethics is a little bit like Doctor Kevorkian teaching health maintenance.”
…
With the new post, McGreevey can once again accrue credits for years of service in the state pension system because Kean is a public college. McGreevey, 49, already has more than 19 years of service in the pension system. His final retirement benefit will be calculated based mostly on his nearly three years as governor, when he earned $157,000 a year. He will be eligible for his full pension once he has 25 years in the system and reaches his 60th birthday.
http://www.nj.com/news/ledger/index.ssf?/base/news-11/1176959107264480.xml&coll=1
From the AP:
Mortgage Co. ResCap to Cut 1,000 Jobs
In the second major job cut this year, Residential Capital LLC announced it would eliminate 1,000 jobs due to the “deterioration of the subprime mortgage market.”
The Bloomington, Minn.-based company said Wednesday that about a third of the latest cuts would come from eliminating currently unfilled positions. After the cuts, the company will employ about 12,000 worldwide.
…
In January, ResCap – the residential lending arm of GMAC Financial Services – announced the elimination of another 1,000 jobs, including 200 open positions.
looking (66)-
All that sounds great…except that a dual agent:
1) legally cannot negotiate on your behalf
2) has probably already negotiated a discount to the seller in case a dual agency arises.
A decent buyer agent, actively negotiating on your behalf, will probably get you a better deal than going the route described above. Also keep in mind that 95% of all Realtors routinely mishandle dual agency situations…usually to the benefit of the seller.
If you suspect your offer hasn’t been presented, ask the agent to provide a notarized receipt from the seller, attesting that they viewed the offer. If it’s not forthcoming, go next to that agent’s broker, then to the RE Commission. They live to get involved in public complaints like these.
Renting (67)-
I will now shave with a cheese grater.
Just another example of pigs swilling at the NJ public trough.
#64 Clotpoll
Buying stun guns are illegal in NJ by the way :)
A interesting perspective from this short video clip of a previous housing market recovery:
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=KlkOPAa4Mao
# 69 Clotpoll
Thanks for the clarification!
So that you don’t all think overpriced POS capes are confined to NJ:
http://tinyurl.com/2edzja
On my first RE transaction, went the dual agency route once for expediency (I thought), as I semi-knew the seller, they had a realtor already & we didn’t need to negotiate much on price etc.
I’ll tell you, even from that mild experience, I will NEVER do that again…the agent was certainly not at all looking out for my interests, let’s leave it at that.
I consider myself very lucky to have learned the lesson without incurring more serious damage-
#74
Yikes, more than 17K in taxes, too…
4Life (71)-
If you don’t get caught, it’s not illegal :)
#63 My ftahe in law and brotehr in law are both skilled carpenters, with my FIL having apprecticed in Europe.
The work they can do is truly amazing.
A trip to Home Depot or Lowes requires no notes an many times no measurements. They can look at a job and know exactly what they need and how much of it.
I have been amazed at the level of skill they have displayed oevr the years, not to mention envious.
unique 9 min perpsective from the chief economist of the NAHB – remember the discussion is ECONOMIC ACTIVITY not prices
Also, some serious NY Porterhouse being served up starting at minute 6:15.
http://media.bloomberg.com/bb/avfile/BBRECON/vFlVMdYJ8n0c.mp3
#74 NJ gal versatile floor plan, = code phrase for odd lay out. But if they throw in the Piano, maybe we can work soemthing out
can you please provide me with info. on MLS #4934037
New Jersey – #2 of the foreclosure top 10 states.
http://realestate.aol.com/gallery/rising-state-foreclosures
(67)
Ha ha ha.. we are so screwed in this state. I heard that Jim is going to have the following guest speakers. Bill Clinton, Jerry Falwell, Congressman Gary Condit, Al Sharpton, Jim and Tammy Fay Baker, and let’s not forget the ever popular Mike Nifong. Was Mcgreevey’s appointment cleared by the Jon Corzine ethics committee?
NJ and Ethics perfect together!
#54 bbb: I would like to know what was said about the seniors…and what age group these people were in.
From Reuters:
GE’s WMC Mortgage to lay off half of staff
General Electric Co.’s WMC Mortgage subprime lending unit plans to lay off 771 workers, about half of its staff, a spokeswoman said on Thursday.
The layoffs will include the closing of facilities in Costa Mesa and San Ramon, California, as well as Addison, Texas. Following the cuts, WMC will employ about 700 people, spokeswoman Brandie Young told Reuters.
The Burbank, California-based lender in March disclosed layoffs of more than 460 people.
BBB,
No and no.
Clot,
My agent (buyer’s) actually requested a receipt on my behalf.
What is your opinion of open bids?
Not just a trademark of Joisey.
“Texas owes state workers $50 billion in future retirement benefits and refuses to acknowledge the obligation.”
“I don’t like that,” said John B. Cummings, executive vice president at Newport Beach, California-based Pimco, which runs the world’s largest bond fund and manages $14 billion in municipal debt. “You’re supposed to tell me what’s going on.”
“Nationwide, states and cities have an estimated $1.5 trillion of unfunded costs for future retiree benefits, Credit Suisse Group estimated in a March report.”
http://www.bloomberg.com/apps/news?pid=20601109&sid=a8bnXx3cK9mg&refer=home
“Sales of new bonds backed by so- called Alt-A home loans rose in the first quarter as issuance of securities backed by riskier subprime loans slid, according to industry newsletter Inside MBS & ABS.”
“Goldman Sachs Group Inc. and General Electric Co.’s WMC Mortgage Co. and at least a dozen other companies said in statements or interviews in March that they are becoming less interested in buying Alt-A mortgages with low down payments, especially ones with risk factors such as those that lack proof of the borrower’s pay or loans made to real-estate speculators.”
“Their changes should cut Alt-A issuance this year by 25 percent, according to Dale Westhoff, an analyst at New York-based Bear Stearns Cos., the second-largest underwriter of non-agency mortgage bonds.”
http://www.bloomberg.com/apps/news?pid=newsarchive&sid=aQl8TZVKl_zs
Wow take a peek at this Bloomberg terminal screenshot from CR (http://calculatedrisk.blogspot.com/).
http://bp2.blogger.com/_pMscxxELHEg/Rie22iuzE2I/AAAAAAAAAaM/IUSqS0VFBMk/s1600-h/Screen+Capture.gif
jb
“Yikes, more than 17K in taxes, too…”
Welcome to Pelham – Westchester County has the highest taxes in the US. Pelham has the highest taxes in Westchester (yes, even higher than places like Chappaqua with it’s top school system, and more offensive because a large lot in Pelham is 50×100).
Saw an episode of “Real Estate Confidential” on the “Fine Living” network this week:
http://www.fineliving.com/fine/real_estate_confidential/0,3147,FINE_29096,00.html
Not sure when it was filmed (probably in late 2005), but in the episode the agents had 3 offers come in on a $350K crapbox located near an industrial park in California.
Then, in comes the winning 4th offer, which was:
* $10K over asking price.
* 100% financing.
* Had a $13K “credit” for the buyers.
So you have lemmings who can’t afford to buy the house, and are using 100% financing, while at the same time inflating comps by $13K with the “credit.”
The episode was a good window into the insanity that was the Housing Bubble.
Oh, and in another episode of the “Real Estate Confidential” show they had an agent driving a prospective buyer around in a $175,000 Bentley Continental:
http://www.privatewallpapers.com/wp-content/uploads/bentley_continental-gt_94_1280-9.jpg
For anyone with MLS access. Please help me with the following 3 bed townhouse MLS listing in chatham.
I would like to know these listings last sale price
2379204 – 599k – $7222/tax – $407/monthly fee
2395434 – 619k – $7200/tax – $407/monthly fee
Thx,
CC
JB [89],
You’re right, wow.
Impairments, rock bottom pricing, liquidity “crisis” and market not stabilizing.
It’s amazing how we go for years with the spigots open and after a few months we now have a liquidity crisis. I still feel you can throw aside all the talk of subprime, alt a, affordability, bailouts, etc… The main issue going forward, credit/lending standards. Not surprising, [more surprised it took this long] the liquidity crunch is here. A whole layer of former buyers, would not qualify with the new requirements looming.
Great times ahead, for prime buyers with cash to put down. Can they save this market?
“$175,000 Bentley Continental”
Unrealtor [92],
With a granite dashboard?
#84 tbw Basically they are blaming the Seniors, and as I have said the quesiton they really should be asking is what happened to all of the supporters of the schools, where were they this past Tuesday.
But to get back to your question. Here is a list of some of the things I have heard.
1. Selfish, cheap.
2. They already get handouts/tax relief.
3. They have lived in town so long they do not care about property values.
4. They have educated their kids, now they do not want to pay for today’s childrens.
5. Their houses are all dumps, and if they do not care about their houses, its no wonder they voted no.
6. And the one I found most offensive, if they cannot afford to live here, then they should move.
The age group, all people with elementary school age kids. Very Sad.
Just the last sale price?
2379204 – $345,000 (1999)
2395434 – No prior sales price in the tax records or MLS
anyone see the shills on the side of the road with the ‘Vote Yes’ sign for the budgets? people should question why someone would hold up a makeshift sign hoping to sway opinion on such an important subject in such a way, then vote the complete opposite of their intent. would serve them right.
in westfield about 16% of the people actually voted for the school budget. how pathetic.
%100 Apathy? Complacency? Or saying they support the budget, but than not voting either way, as to not have to take responsibility for their vote.
in westfield about 16% of the people actually voted for the school budget. how pathetic.
Do you mean voted for the budget, or voted at all?
jb
James Bednar Says:
April 19th, 2007 at 3:43 pm
Just the last sale price?
any other good stuff???
CC
I just came across this on nj.com. It has compiled information from The Star Ledger such as Home Sales, Demographics, Schools, etc.
http://www.nj.com/news/bythenumbers/
sorry voted at all. it passed with 15.9 percent of the registered voters participating in the election.
Results:
YES 1,956
NO 1,094
burst (97)-
Here in Clinton, we got about a 12% turnout, and the “budget” (I use that term loosely) was soundly trounced. I had to be (at 47) the youngest person there. However, just like the seniors, I voted “no”. And…I have two kids in the system. BTW, there was a big get-out-the-yes-vote effort this year. Maybe they should get a new chairman next year. Just pathetic.
The thing none of these education “experts” gets is that- as in any other pursuit- the best solutions are the ones that cost nothing. Before money is spent, all the free/low cost solutions to problems should be completely exhausted. Why is this such a difficult concept to grasp?
I genuinely fear that we are overspending to provide an education to kids who will never be able to live here. Until NJ’s fiscal house is in order, I cannot see how any thinking person can agree to a program of spending that assures our financial destruction.
Alas, the finger-pointing and name-calling toward the senior set has commenced here. Funny, but it’s all coming from people who were somehow unable to join the less than 5% of the local electorate who showed up to vote yes.
Bear Sterns goes bearish on Alt-A
http://calculatedrisk.blogspot.com/2007/04/alt-update-bear-goes-bearish.html
#106 Clot: i ahve been saying this for years now> We spend all this money to supposedly educate our children, yet they will not be able to live in this state.
It makes absolutely no sense. When I try and have this discussion with so called sophisicated people in my town, I get a stare, perplexed look, or shrug of shoulders.
I like your line about fiscal destruction, I am going to borrow it if I may,
It is so true.
Branchburg made the Relocate America “Best places to live” list:
http://www.relocate-america.com/states/nj/cities/branchburg.htm
The top 100 can be found here:
http://top100.relocate-america.com/
jb
One our way to a new host!
Signed on with a new VPS (virtual private server) hosting company this afternoon.
I’ll be migrating the site as soon as I can get the software and databases set up on the new server.
Thanks to everyone who made this possible!
jb
How much money did Marva Collins’ efforts require when she pretty much rewrote the book on how to deliver quality education in the inner city?
Despite the millions of dollars we throw at them, how many Abbott districts today are any better off educationally than they were when the program was mandated by the courts? How many of these districts have turned instead into sinkholes of corruption and waste?
Does every 6th grader in an affluent town need his own laptop? How much educational value is there in new, state-of-the art facilities, when the curriculum taught within is such watered-down, feel-good poo?
There used to be a consensus that quality education found its basis in the “Great Books”…that is, a liberal education taken from the acknowledged classics of Western culture in the areas of literature, history, science and the arts. Now, anything in a school that takes the classics as its basis is derided as irrelevant at best, and racist/exclusionary at worst. As we’ve decided to cater to all students, we’ve ended up serving none of them. What gets dished out now is a hash of varied and competing ideas, none of which come from a mutually-acknowledged foundation. Any of us who’ve seen how our kids are taught math these days has come up against this “meat-grinder” approach to teaching simple concepts. And, when kids wrestle with simple concepts, it is invariably because they are presented with no proper introduction or context.
And our schools seem to have only one idea with which to battle this monster: throw more money at it. As a result, all our shiny new equipment only serves to further alienate our children from the raw “stuff” of learning itself. Because all you need for real learning to occur is a teacher, a book, an idea and a pencil.
I am far from a xenophobe, and I think that any culture or civilization that has ever existed offers opportunity for learning. However, if we don’t come to other cultures from an understanding and foundation in the great ideas of our own, we are doomed to progress no further in those studies than the mere compilation of information; without the context and frame of reference provided by our own culture, we are all fated to be no more than the masses milling at the base of our own modern-day tower of Babel.
there won’t be a bottom until people start losing jobs. I took a walk down the mainstreet in my town this morning on the way to the train… Featured in the window of the 3 realtor shops I passed (3 in the space of 2 blocks!) are all of the SAME HOUSES that have been in those windows for a year at least. No doubt several of them have been for sale for 2 yrs by now.
I don’t know why anyone would want to have their house perpetually for sale, or why anyone would want to represent someone who is that thick-headed.
The only conclusion I can draw is that a huge percentage of sellers out there simply can’t drop their price because they have zero equity.
If this is the case, only unemployment is going to break the logjam
Capital One’s profit dives, outlook falls
Net income tumbles 24%, pushed down by mortgage banking weakness.
http://money.cnn.com/2007/04/19/news/companies/bc.capitalone.results.reut/index.htm?source=yahoo_quote
Nearly five months ago, Capital One completed its $13.2 billion takeover of Melville, N.Y.’s North Fork Bancorp Inc., adding more than 350 branches and a large mortgage business. A year earlier, it bought Hibernia Corp. for $5 billion, adding more than 300 branches in hurricane-ravaged Louisiana and Texas.
mortgage banking posted a “modest” loss in the first quarter amid “unusually weak conditions” in the market to sell some nonconforming loans, including “Alt-A” loans – or “Alternative-A” loans, which often go to borrowers who cannot provide full documentation of income or assets.
Weekend TV Alert
This weekend the crew from Trademark Properties starts a new show titled “The Real Deal” on TLC @ 9:00PM:
http://tv.yahoo.com/the-real-deal/show/41265/upcoming
You’ll recognize them from the hour-long show “Flip This House” which aired on A&E. Apparently, A&E decided to steal the entire show, not compensate Richard Davis and crew, and legal action ensued. A&E then replaced the Trademark crew with hacks from Texas, and then lesser hacks from Atlanta, to awful effect.
Anyway, the new show should make for some interesting TV.
#111 Clot We have a BOE member who wants to give lap tops to 4th graders> I mean lets just start with kindergarten, and be done with it.
How many High Schools still have a summer reading program,b ut hey we are wired and have astro turf, and still the scores go down.
Great Housing Bust video:
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=cEs1waa6HT4
Marito ~48, thanks for the viewpoint on immigration. Every immigrant community seems to have a spectrum of needs and dreams. A lot of folks I know just want to earn SS and save money here so they can go home and retire. But others want to stay and work hard to achieve the top in their profession.
Why do you think a (small minority) group of immigrants permit the next generation to commit crimes and/or be in gangs?
Clot,
Very interesting post about education! I agree much of what you said.
Marva http://www.marvacollins.com/biography.html
had one benefit that costs $$ & that is small class sizes. No one wants to spend the money for that even though class size does matter. I totally agree with her points regarding meaning and universal questions.
I read some fascinating discussions by NJIT Richard Sweeney about the role of technology in education. I think the longer you are out of school the less you understand the generation who is. Look at all of us blogging… how can you say that technology shouldn’t be utilized in children’s experiences, too? (To a certain extent & not at the expense of everything else, mind you.)
One Sweeney quote, “Along with differences in attitudes, millennials exhibit distinct learning styles. For example, their learning preferences tend toward teamwork, experiential activities, structure and the use of technology. Their strengths include multitasking, goal orientation, positive attitudes, and a collaborative style.”
A Seattle article: http://seattlepi.nwsource.com/lifestyle/307124_millennial13.html
& yes, I googled both Marva & Richard Sweeney to find the links used above!
D Says:
April 19th, 2007 at 8:32 pm
Look at all of us blogging… how can you say that technology shouldn’t be utilized in children’s experiences, too?
D: because we had the benefit of a conventional education
One Sweeney quote, “Along with differences in attitudes, millennials exhibit distinct learning styles.
For example, their learning preferences tend toward teamwork
D: aka – lack of personal accountability/reinforce lack of initiative
experiential activities
D: inability to conceptualize/understand the task without holistic integration of concepts
structure and the use of technology
D: bells and whistles to engage the ADHD mind/give them a friggin’ book
Their strengths include multitasking
D: aka – inability to focus
goal orientation
D: impatience/lack of perservence/failure to appreciate work for the sake of work’s sake
positive attitudes
D: lack of grounding in reality
and a collaborative style.
D: inability to complete a project without significant assistance
FYI – I would never hire anyone born past 1985 or so without significant emprical evidence that they are not a laughable clown.
on the issue of summer reading, parents routinely complain to my wife that she assigns it (these are high school honors classes)
some people think that learning happens by magic. throw a bunch of well dressed kids in a fancy building and all of a sudden they’re all geniuses. sort of like a brochure
Chi,
Please clarify if you mean that children shouldn’t use technology until they have “the benefit of a conventional education.” Isn’t that a bit late? When should they begin to use the world’s resources, including other people like we do here?
Maybe define conventional education… I’m guessing you mean like the kind you had b/c after all you turned out okay. That’s what most people think about public school nevermind the changing world-watch the news?
Skeptic,
My daughter’s reading list came home today. She’ll be in third grade in September. The letter said all kids grades k-8 had to read ONE BOOK during the summer. ONE?? Not to mention she’s already read two of the three choices. But one? Really, that is awfully lame. Maybe parents complained? That’s even more lame. So many people want schools to work miracles.
*sigh*
Chi,
When should they begin to use the world’s resources, including other people like we do here?
D: When they have the skills to be creators of content, and not just manipulators of other’s content. If you are handed a calculator before you can add, you will never learn.
Chi, I agree with your calculator analogy, but still disagree about the use of technology. Kids today really are wired differently, not all bad, not all good, but differently. Technology is part of their world in a totally different way than it is for any of us…read some of Sweeney’s work, it’s really interesting even if you don’t agree with most of it.
ChiFi (120)-
Please allow me to toss some gasoline on the nice, comfy fire you’ve built (your post is funny, but there’s more than a small grain of truth in it):
Computers are a tool. The internet is a tool. Google is a tool. Those tools are like levers. Levers can only be employed to advantage by people who’ve been taught how to properly use them.
Critical thinking is an intellectual skill. The ability to write is an intellectual skill. The ability to debate is an intellectual skill. In fact, cultivating the ability to learn is- in and of itself- an intellectual skill.
Without intellectual skills, all the levers in the world are meaningless. Much like burst’s brave new Bergen world, our local HS has astroturf and a wireless cloud…but nobody wants to do summer reading.
The other problem with levers is that they cost money. In the absence of intellectual skill, the people who have an interest in selling levers jump into the breach, proclaiming to all who will listen that more/better/newer levers will somehow impart intellectual skill. In an increasingly mercantile society, the lever salesmen gain greater and greater- dare I say it- leverage in blurring the line between knowledge and shiny new things. Pretty soon, the levers become synonomous with intellectual skill, as if the two were interchangeable.
Meanwhile, in lands far away, schools furnished with nothing more than good teachers and eager students turn out educated young people in numbers vastly larger than the rate at which we graduate entrants into what remains of our professional middle-to-upper-middle class.
50/30 is his the bailout
A 30 year mortgage with a balloon at the end?
For the forever house ( the one you buy for the long haul ) this seems like a really good idea, since inflation makes it much less at the end?
But, Clot, don’t you have to show them what a lever is and to think critically about when and how to use it effectively for intellectual pursuits and problem solving? They don’t magically learn to use levers, you know.
Wish I could play more, but I have school tomorrow. *grin*
From SmartMoney.com:
Capital One Sees No Profit in Mortgages
Capital One Financial Corp. (COF) on Thursday reported a 24% decrease in first-quarter earnings and lowered its full-year profit forecast, citing revised expectations for its mortgage banking business.
…
Capital One pointed to last year’s acquisition of subprime lender North Fork, which operates banks in New York, New Jersey and Connecticut.
“Assuming no improvement in the unusually weak conditions now present in the secondary market for non-conforming prime mortgage loans, including Alt-A, we expect that reduced volumes and margins would result in our mortgage banking business delivering no incremental earnings for the balance of 2007,” Chief Financial Officer Gary L. Perlin said in a statement accompanying Thursday’s report. “Our expectations for consumer credit to return to more normal levels and the yield curve to remain flat are unchanged.”
Alt-A mortgages are loans to borrowers with better credit than subprime borrowers but not quite prime.
http://www.imcbanking.com/
these guys didn’t waste time putting up the closed sign.
This spring : No house closings ; Only lender closings.
#125 Clot
It’s hard for schools to compete with the distractions of modern American life. I wouldn’t blame the schools or the budgets, though. I do believe all the new fangled equipment and tools can result in a better education experience – but not if there’s no will to use it. It starts at home (so says the guy who waited in line for hours to buy his kids a Wii). Unfortunately, I think too many parents just equate spending money as an effective substitute for actually working with /teaching their kids.
-P
politely,
I have to wholeheartedly agree with your last statement. In an effort to get my daughter to start learning spelling, I went to a number of different stores to see if I had missed some new technology that would do a better job than mom/dad. I was surprised to say the least (10 different Leap Frog products, basically all doing the same thing). I said the heck with this, I can’t choose and even worse, I could hardly understand the “speech” of the toys. We used a good old fashioned chalkboard and within 2 weeks she knew 20 different words. Now she asks me while we are driving in the car to test her with new words, incredible (she’s 2 and 1/2). I think had I bought one of those toys for her, it would have collected dust because especially at this age, she loves interacting with her parents. Even if you buy the “technology”, having mom or dad around to reinforce whatever “LEAP” or “LILY” or “TAD” is saying, is the most important piece. In the “let me get on with my life, let technology fix everything” lifestyle we lead, sometimes we miss the most obvious and least expensive options. afe
Afe,
I don’t know if you will check back on this thread but all this talk debate was losing me till I read your comment, it brought back memories of when my oldest was les than 2 and I made alphabet cards and threw them all over the floor and would say find me a “T” and he would run around those letters looking for it. When he got older we did word bingo ( I made ) and sioo many other educational games I made up, there was no way at that time could I buy him gadgets. Having said that ( and I hate that expression) My younger son had acess to video games at a young age because his brother is 6 years older. He learned math, reading,( reading at 4.5) by playing various video games. He is a very good student and my oldest son I don’t want to say is not, but he started ahead of the game but really is in the middle, the little video guy is a whiz. I don’t know?
KL
KL,
It is wonderful that your younger son did (is doing) well with the video games/gadgets. But I have yet to see any research studies that prove all of this technology is more helpful than good ole fashion learning; spending time with mom/dad at least for toddlers. Now, as politely said, there is a place for technology and a very important one in our children’s learning but like TV I think it has to be used judiciously and with parents’ monitoring. Also, maybe with kids who are younger they need more parental involvement while older kids (say those older than 3) do okay with learning video games etc.
Here is an article in Newsweek about this issue
http://www.msnbc.msn.com/id/17648215/