Sat 23 Jun 2007
Welcome to another edition of Lowball!
Lowball! takes a look at home sales from a different perspective. For those new to Lowball!, a lowball offer is when a buyer offers a significantly lower bid than asking in hopes that the seller accepts the offer. We take a list of home sales from the past month and pick out the sales that have the highest percentage difference between original list price and selling price.
The purpose of Lowball! is to show buyers that the market has changed and buyers now have considerably more leverage than sellers. Just a short time ago, Lowball! offers would have been laughed at and discarded, however, not any more. The fact that so many under-asking offers are being accepted is clear proof that the market is changing.
| MLS | Town | OLP | LP | SP | % off OLP | $ off OLP |
| 2363053 | East Orange City | $169,900 | $67,900 | $63,000 | 62.9% | $106,900 |
| 2343436 | Branchburg Twp. | $25,000 | $17,000 | $13,500 | 46.0% | $11,500 |
| 2335411 | White Twp. | $99,900 | $69,000 | $55,500 | 44.4% | $44,400 |
| 2388027 | Montague Twp.* | $262,500 | $159,900 | $159,900 | 39.1% | $102,600 |
| 2359771 | Phillipsburg Town* | $120,000 | $95,000 | $75,000 | 37.5% | $45,000 |
| 2358403 | Elizabeth City* | $419,900 | $299,900 | $265,000 | 36.9% | $154,900 |
| 2323942 | City Of Orange Twp.* | $239,900 | $158,999 | $153,000 | 36.2% | $86,900 |
| 2311072 | West Milford Twp. | $318,501 | $225,000 | $210,000 | 34.1% | $108,501 |
| 2040082 | Montville Twp. | $799,000 | $649,000 | $537,000 | 32.8% | $262,000 |
| 2342858 | Jersey City* | $235,500 | $177,500 | $161,000 | 31.6% | $74,500 |
| 2367803 | Paterson City* | $362,500 | $259,900 | $250,000 | 31.0% | $112,500 |
| 2278330 | Millburn Twp. | $3,195,000 | $2,540,000 | $2,215,000 | 30.7% | $980,000 |
| 2354260 | East Orange City | $230,000 | $210,000 | $160,000 | 30.4% | $70,000 |
| 2310008 | Newark City | $230,000 | $170,000 | $160,000 | 30.4% | $70,000 |
| 2338764 | Vernon Twp. | $236,500 | $175,000 | $165,000 | 30.2% | $71,500 |
| 2381569 | Summit City | $669,000 | $469,000 | $469,000 | 29.9% | $200,000 |
| 2291434 | Lambertville City* | $323,400 | $254,000 | $230,000 | 28.9% | $93,400 |
| 2384074 | Bedminster Twp. | $354,900 | $254,900 | $253,000 | 28.7% | $101,900 |
| 2261925 | Edison Twp. | $419,900 | $319,900 | $300,000 | 28.6% | $119,900 |
| 2327519 | West Milford Twp.* | $424,900 | $319,900 | $305,000 | 28.2% | $119,900 |
| 2333550 | Caldwell Boro Twp. | $535,000 | $415,900 | $385,000 | 28.0% | $150,000 |
| 2326900 | Springfield Twp. | $485,000 | $379,900 | $350,000 | 27.8% | $135,000 |
| 2381653 | Woodbridge Twp.* | $414,000 | $314,000 | $300,000 | 27.5% | $114,000 |
| 2336362 | Glen Ridge Boro Twp. | $999,000 | $790,000 | $727,000 | 27.2% | $272,000 |
| 2329811 | Roselle Boro* | $409,900 | $300,000 | $300,000 | 26.8% | $109,900 |
| 2303748 | Rocky Hill Boro* | $439,900 | $339,999 | $322,000 | 26.8% | $117,900 |
| 2248078 | West Orange Twp. | $599,900 | $455,900 | $440,000 | 26.7% | $159,900 |
| 2304099 | Morris Twp. | $1,495,000 | $1,149,000 | $1,100,000 | 26.4% | $395,000 |
| 2351070 | Lopatcong Twp. | $209,900 | $164,900 | $154,500 | 26.4% | $55,400 |
| 2393638 | Roselle Boro | $275,000 | $250,000 | $202,500 | 26.4% | $72,500 |
| 2318656 | South Orange Village | $1,351,080 | $999,999 | $999,999 | 26.0% | $351,081 |
| 2353613 | Millburn Twp. | $2,695,000 | $2,125,000 | $2,000,000 | 25.8% | $695,000 |
| 2320749 | Ogdensburg Boro | $333,000 | $259,000 | $247,200 | 25.8% | $85,800 |
| 2385843 | South Bound Brook | $254,900 | $254,900 | $190,000 | 25.5% | $64,900 |
| 2336039 | Jefferson Twp.* | $435,000 | $425,000 | $325,000 | 25.3% | $110,000 |
| 2379470 | Paterson City* | $179,900 | $150,000 | $135,000 | 25.0% | $44,900 |
| 2387981 | Piscataway Twp.* | $472,500 | $339,900 | $355,000 | 24.9% | $117,500 |
| 2287822 | Mendham Boro | $585,000 | $460,000 | $440,000 | 24.8% | $145,000 |
| 2270294 | Madison Boro* | $525,000 | $399,999 | $395,000 | 24.8% | $130,000 |
| 2288631 | Ogdensburg Boro | $339,900 | $299,000 | $256,500 | 24.5% | $83,400 |
| 2388493 | Elizabeth City | $204,900 | $204,900 | $155,000 | 24.4% | $49,900 |
| 2353189 | Vernon Twp.* | $349,000 | $265,000 | $265,000 | 24.1% | $84,000 |
| 2333985 | Old Bridge Twp. | $207,000 | $189,000 | $157,500 | 23.9% | $49,500 |
| 2322258 | Pequannock Twp. | $499,000 | $439,000 | $380,000 | 23.8% | $119,000 |
| 2372169 | East Orange City | $112,875 | $95,545 | $86,000 | 23.8% | $26,875 |
| 2346078 | Franklin Twp.* | $195,999 | $179,900 | $150,000 | 23.5% | $45,999 |
| 2285801 | Franklin Lakes Boro | $1,995,000 | $1,699,000 | $1,530,000 | 23.3% | $465,000 |
| 2259194 | Millburn Twp. | $1,595,000 | $1,349,000 | $1,225,000 | 23.2% | $370,000 |
| 2326177 | Passaic City | $395,000 | $335,000 | $305,000 | 22.8% | $90,000 |
| 2365258 | Maplewood Twp. | $549,900 | $495,900 | $425,000 | 22.7% | $124,900 |
| 2284548 | Mendham Boro | $565,000 | $449,950 | $440,000 | 22.1% | $125,000 |
| 2347438 | Franklin Boro | $79,500 | $65,000 | $62,000 | 22.0% | $17,500 |
| 2314194 | Hillsborough Twp. | $525,000 | $460,000 | $410,000 | 21.9% | $115,000 |
| 2298241 | East Orange City | $199,900 | $150,000 | $156,200 | 21.9% | $43,700 |
| 2351110 | West Milford Twp. | $248,900 | $224,900 | $195,000 | 21.7% | $53,900 |
| 2339321 | Clifton City | $389,000 | $329,900 | $305,000 | 21.6% | $84,000 |
| 2289139 | Paterson City | $184,900 | $149,900 | $145,000 | 21.6% | $39,900 |
| 2359926 | Paterson City | $148,900 | $129,000 | $117,000 | 21.4% | $31,900 |
| 2280286 | Hardyston Twp. | $349,900 | $279,900 | $275,000 | 21.4% | $74,900 |
| 2361272 | Fairfield Twp. | $449,900 | $370,800 | $355,000 | 21.1% | $94,900 |
| 2280124 | Edison Twp.* | $658,000 | $529,000 | $520,000 | 21.0% | $138,000 |
| 2385914 | Bridgewater Twp.* | $309,900 | $299,900 | $245,000 | 20.9% | $64,900 |
| 2290258 | Newark City* | $360,000 | $319,900 | $285,000 | 20.8% | $75,000 |
| 2380205 | Ringwood Boro | $239,900 | $239,900 | $190,000 | 20.8% | $49,900 |
| 2331386 | Linden City | $265,000 | $210,100 | $210,100 | 20.7% | $54,900 |
| 2325085 | Springfield Twp.* | $614,500 | $519,000 | $487,500 | 20.7% | $127,000 |
| 2405957 | Bridgewater Twp.* | $189,000 | $189,000 | $150,000 | 20.6% | $39,000 |
| 2319474 | Nutley Twp.* | $849,900 | $689,000 | $675,000 | 20.6% | $174,900 |
| 2370225 | Bloomfield Twp. | $339,900 | $275,000 | $270,000 | 20.6% | $69,900 |
| 2283696 | Allamuchy Twp. | $439,900 | $380,000 | $350,000 | 20.4% | $89,900 |
| 2267873 | Franklin Lakes Boro | $1,200,000 | $1,099,000 | $957,000 | 20.3% | $243,000 |
| 2364336 | Pohatcong Twp. | $699,000 | $569,000 | $558,000 | 20.2% | $141,000 |
| 2270570 | Mendham Twp. | $749,900 | $599,900 | $599,900 | 20.0% | $150,000 |
| 2390298 | Parsippany-Troy Hills | $299,900 | $299,900 | $240,000 | 20.0% | $59,900 |
Sales data for this period can be found here:
http://njrereport.com/files/Sales-Jun07a.xls
jb
For those of you interested in the large dollar lowballs.
MLS Town % off OLP $ off OLP
2278330 Millburn Twp. 30.7% $980,000
2353613 Millburn Twp. 25.8% $695,000
2364757 Westfield Twp. 16.4% $550,000
2338355 Harding Twp.* 11.6% $550,000
2301093 Millburn Twp. 16.2% $549,000
2388811 Harding Twp. 8.5% $500,000
2285801 Franklin Lakes Boro 23.3% $465,000
2304099 Morris Twp. 26.4% $395,000
2259194 Millburn Twp. 23.2% $370,000
2318656 South Orange Village Twp. 26.0% $351,081
2322698 Chatham Twp. 16.7% $349,900
2321368 Bernardsville Boro* 8.6% $300,000
2317805 Morristown Town* 15.8% $299,900
2354827 Westfield Twp.* 15.3% $295,000
2273782 Franklin Lakes Boro 14.8% $279,000
2336362 Glen Ridge Boro Twp. 27.2% $272,000
2337789 Essex Fells Twp. 13.4% $267,530
2040082 Montville Twp. 32.8% $262,000
2267873 Franklin Lakes Boro 20.3% $243,000
2371402 Kinnelon Boro 12.3% $240,000
2352474 North Caldwell Boro* 11.4% $225,000
2321079 Millburn Twp.* 7.5% $225,000
2383406 Summit City 11.0% $220,000
2335027 Morris Twp.* 14.2% $210,000
2344858 Ridgewood Village 19.0% $209,000
2294319 Summit City* 18.9% $207,500
2381569 Summit City 29.9% $200,000
2320177 West Orange Twp. 13.8% $200,000
2364806 Madison Boro 8.5% $200,000
2369326 Livingston Twp. 11.1% $199,000
2352973 Randolph Twp.* 15.0% $195,000
2390743 Westfield Twp. 10.9% $195,000
2362829 Ridgewood Village 11.4% $194,000
2361266 Raritan Twp.* 19.5% $184,900
2329648 Millburn Twp. 14.2% $184,000
2351574 Livingston Twp. 7.3% $182,500
2301768 Scotch Plains Twp.* 14.7% $180,000
2364142 Westfield Twp. 13.2% $175,000
2319474 Nutley Twp.* 20.6% $174,900
2387340 Fairfield Twp.* 15.0% $174,000
2308161 Franklin Lakes Boro 16.4% $172,000
2371690 Bernards Twp. 8.6% $170,900
2304012 Harding Twp. 14.5% $170,000
2348892 Raritan Twp.* 16.3% $169,100
2283919 Monroe Twp. 14.3% $165,000
2344174 Summit City* 12.7% $164,000
2248078 West Orange Twp. 26.7% $159,900
2368651 Westfield Twp.* 16.2% $159,000
2358403 Elizabeth City* 36.9% $154,900
2366151 Washington Twp. 16.5% $152,000
2329220 Kinnelon Boro* 13.1% $151,000
2364009 Mendham Twp. 13.0% $150,001
2333550 Caldwell Boro Twp. 28.0% $150,000
2270570 Mendham Twp. 20.0% $150,000
2305235 Clark Twp.* 13.6% $150,000
2362809 Westfield Twp.* 11.1% $150,000
2351077 Chatham Twp. 10.3% $150,000
2359081 Summit City* 8.1% $150,000
2367599 Summit City 7.1% $150,000
Where do you get this data from?
Local MLS systems.
jb
Nice list JB. That first house in Millburn was listed first at $3.995 with different agent for 6 months. So overall $$ drop is $1.780mm. But that means nothing in that price range. A $10mm home in summit was reduced to ~$7mm i think. $3mm lowball? dont think so
A number of those original prices were nothing but a dream.
jb
Hey Jim where is the Allamuchy lowball?
20# Johnsonburg
3/1 Ranch on 2.24ac
From the pictures, looks like a nice piece of property. Barn in rear.
jb
What do the asterisks at the end of the town names mean?
It is right off of exit 19 on I-80. I think I will check it out today it is only about 4 miles from where I live.
What was the Branchburg property for $25,000?
Jim, are you sure it is 20 J-burg? NJACTB has it listed as Board of education.
http://tax1.co.monmouth.nj.us/cgi-bin/m4sr.cgi?&srch_type=1&ms_user=monm&district=2101270
As-is trailer in an age restricted park.
jb
207, I was trying to obscure the address.
jb
Outstanding stuff, JB.
One thing … don’t see a lot of Bergen County houses in there.
Saw one Ridgewood house … but not much else.
What do you think may attribute to this? Think just nothing is selling in Bergen, or the sales aren’t low enough to qualify for lowball?
Sorry I guess I am a bit dense this morning. I just thought you had a dyslexic moment. Thanks!
What do you think may attribute to this? Think just nothing is selling in Bergen, or the sales aren’t low enough to qualify for lowball?
What do I attribute it to?
Mainly the fact that I was too lazy this morning to merge the NJMLS data along with GSMLS.
The vast majority of Bergen County transactions take place on NJMLS, not GSMLS. We are only looking at a subset of the Northern NJ market here. Also missing would be the Hudson MLS transactions (MLSGuide) as well as Middlesex, Monmouth/Ocean, etc.
jb
JB, the data is interesting. Thanks. Looks like median DOM in my town is about 40 and median % off OLP (again, in my town) is 2.7%. The median SP is down to 315k. All told, not too shabby, but not spectacular either. I live in a ‘plankton’ market so this can’t be bad news.
grim,
Thanks.
There are an amazing number of trailer parks in NJ.
Do we get a spreadsheet this week?
:)
RE: 2278330
This property actually sold for 45% less than original asking:
Dec 02, 2005 - $3,995,000 (MLS 2223612)
Feb ??, 2006 - $3,750,000
Mar ??, 2006 - $3,500,000
May ??, 2006 - WITHDRAWN
May 15, 2006 - $3,195,000 (MLS 2278330)
May 31, 2006 - $2,995,000
Jul 26, 2006 - $2,850,000
Sep 07, 2006 - Under Contract
Sep 16, 2006 - $2,540,000 (MLS 2278330)
Oct 29, 2006 - Attorney Review
Nov 26, 2006 - WITHDRAWN
Dec 19, 2006 - $2,540,000 (MLS 2278330)
Jan 31, 2007 - Attorney Review
Feb 02, 2007 - Under Contract
May ??, 2007 - Closed @ $2,215,000
This buyer actually got a good deal, this is one substantial property.
Oops, missed the spreadsheet link, thanks!
Is there some way to get access to the MLS data if you’re not a realtor? RealtyTrac or something similar?
“There are an amazing number of trailer parks in NJ.”
Not in Bergen County. No trailer parks here, I am pleased to report.
Followup to my previous post - I just compared the Oct 2006 sales data posted by JB to the most recent one. DOM in my town is down from 60 to 40. Median sale price is down from 370k to 315k. Huge drop in price but atleast homes are actually moving.
http://www.nj.com/news/ledger/index.ssf?/news/ledger/stories/20050623_blight.html
Gonna be interesting when the 10 year is yielding 6% BTW check out http://www.jerseylegalforums.com
Grim,
Thanks for including that trailer in Branchburg.
JB - Gotcha.
As a prospective NJ buyer … one who visits this site daily and hopes to be in NJ this winter … is it out of line to ask if you’ll be surfing the NJMLS for lowballs?
Either way, you do an outstanding job and keep up the good work.
# 24 Rober Troll There is a trailer park in Lodi, and one in Little Ferry, both of course Bergen Co. Obviously you are a newbie to Bergen, Donny.
JB said:
Mainly the fact that I was too lazy this morning to merge the NJMLS data along with GSMLS.
Yes, Mr. Bednar, don’t think I haven’t noticed how much you enjoy slacking off. The warm weather getting to you, hmmm?
You’re penchant for staring absentmindedly out the window will be your downfall young man. You really need to put some effort into this site, the place is falling apart.
Please. I (and my wife, I’m sure) wish I was as lazy as you. Thanks for everything JB.
You say trailer park, I say manufactured home community.
Actually, there probably aren’t enough trailer parks in NJ and the ones that do exist are under a lot of pressure from developers who see the land as very attractive for other types of development.
In all seriousness, trailer parks may be the only source of unsubsidized affordable housing in NJ. If there were a few more of them maybe we wouldn’t have COAH, “builder’s remedy” and other court mandated “solutions” to the lack of affordable housing in NJ.
Lindsey,
You are spot on. These land uses are disappearing fast because many times these places border commercial zones and it takes very little to nudge a land use board to rezone or at least overlay zone so a Big box can plunked down on it.
About 8 years ago there was an article in the WSJ that covered the impact in the Seattle area when people were evicted from their trailer park. This was due to the dearth of buildable land, out there topgraphy and hydrography are a major issue. So the park residents ended up homeless. But the strange part was they decided to live outside in the wilderness on the Snoqualmie river. THeir luck was bad that year because they had floods along the banks and a few of them died.
Seems like this is only happening in certain areas. Was hoping to see South Amboy on here. Love the info I’m reading here. Making think I should hold off a little on my home purchase.
Hmmmm, some of these areas my realtor looked into and never showed any lowballs as high as these… somebody may be holding out? >:0
Nice post on craigslist…whoever did it. It was funny!
Dave #34, you may enjoy this chart:
http://graphics.nytimes.com/images/2006/08/26/weekinreview/27leon_graph2.large.gif
Seems like this is only happening in certain areas. Was hoping to see South Amboy on here. Love the info I’m reading here. Making think I should hold off a little on my home purchase.
I’m only posting the areas that I have access to.
South Amboy is represented on a different MLS system, a system I don’t have access to. Sorry.
jb
Robert Troll / Donald,
Not in Bergen County. No trailer parks here, I am pleased to report.
Once again you state an opinion as fact and once again, you are wrong.
2 in Lodi, 2 in Moonachie and 1 in Mahwah
I didn’t see 3B’s post including Little Ferry.
So that would be a total of 6 trailer parks in Bergen County.
Home Sales Drop, Consumer Spending Gains: U.S. Economy Preview
By Bob Willis
June 24 (Bloomberg) — Home sales dropped last month to a four-year low and consumer spending picked up, signaling the housing recession isn’t rippling through the economy, reports this week may show.
Combined purchases of new and previously owned homes fell to an annual rate of 6.897 million, the fewest since April 2003, according to the median forecasts of economists surveyed by Bloomberg News. Americans spent 0.7 percent more on goods and services last month, a gain not exceeded since January 2006, another report may show.
The spending report may also show that, for the first time in three years, inflation slid within the Federal Reserve’s preferred range. Still, policy makers will hold the interest rate target unchanged when they meet this week and will maintain that inflation remains their biggest concern, economists said.
“The U.S. economy, ex-housing, seems to be showing strong signs of recovery, which will prevent the Federal Reserve from lowering interest rates any time soon,” said Eugenio Aleman, a senior economist at Wells Fargo & Co. in Minneapolis.
A report tomorrow from the National Association of Realtors may show sales of previously owned homes fell to an annual pace of 5.972 million in May from 5.99 million a month earlier, according to the median estimate of economists surveyed.
The following day, the Commerce Department is forecast to report new homes sold at a 925,000 annual rate, down from April’s 981,000 pace.
“We haven’t seen the bottom yet for home sales,” said Ellen Zentner, a macroeconomist at Bank of Tokyo-Mitsubishi UFJ Ltd. in New York. “Housing will continue to be a drag on growth.”
Builder Losses
Homebuilders also see no relief. Hovnanian Enterprises Inc., New Jersey’s largest homebuilder, last month reported its third consecutive quarterly loss as sales plummeted, it cut prices and wrote off land options.
“Without a doubt, things have slowed since about March,” said Ara Hovnanian, the builder’s chief executive officer, in an interview June 18. “There is not a recovery that is about to happen.”
The projected gain in consumer spending last month would follow a 0.5 percent increase in April, the Commerce Department’s June 29 report is forecast to show. Personal income probably rose 0.6 percent, after dropping 0.1 percent in April, according to the survey median.
Job and income gains are keeping consumers spending even as food and fuel prices jump and home values drop.
http://www.bloomberg.com/apps/news?pid=20601103&sid=asBwUQ4aKUWg&refer=news
JB, can you please add atleast zip code if not the whole address?