Mon 3 Sep 2007
Welcome to another edition of Lowball!
Lowball! takes a look at home sales from a different perspective. For those new to Lowball!, a lowball offer is when a buyer offers a significantly lower bid than asking in hopes that the seller accepts the offer. We take a list of home sales from the past month and pick out the sales that have the highest percentage difference between original list price and selling price.
Since I haven’t done a Lowball! in a few months, there is quite a bit of data to be displayed. To make it easier to post, as well as easier on me, I’m going to post these up on a county-by-county basis over the next few days. We’re going to start with Bergen, and move through the counties alphabetically. Keep in mind the Bergen Lowball! sales are sourced from GSMLS, not NJMLS, so a significant number of sales are missing from the data.
On to the list!
| MLS | Town | OLP | LP | SP | % off OLP | $ off OLP |
| 2337734 | Hackensack City | $1,175,000 | $925,000 | $850,000 | 27.7% | $325,000 |
| 2389558 | Ramsey Boro | $1,250,000 | $999,938 | $950,000 | 24.0% | $300,000 |
| 2345985 | Garfield City | $319,900 | $265,000 | $245,000 | 23.4% | $74,900 |
| 2383480 | Ridgewood Village | $729,900 | $565,000 | $560,000 | 23.3% | $169,900 |
| 2392716 | Oakland Boro | $444,500 | $359,900 | $350,000 | 21.3% | $94,500 |
| 2352992 | Fair Lawn Boro | $400,000 | $300,000 | $318,000 | 20.5% | $82,000 |
| 2359059 | Oakland Boro | $419,000 | $375,000 | $335,000 | 20.0% | $84,000 |
| 2370524 | Glen Rock Boro | $1,245,000 | $1,073,000 | $998,000 | 19.8% | $247,000 |
| 2363313 | Glen Rock Boro | $1,150,000 | $1,050,000 | $930,000 | 19.1% | $220,000 |
| 2351448 | Wyckoff Twp. | $799,900 | $699,000 | $650,000 | 18.7% | $149,900 |
| 2288917 | Franklin Lakes | $719,900 | $639,000 | $585,000 | 18.7% | $134,900 |
| 2239795 | Fair Lawn Boro | $369,000 | $337,900 | $300,000 | 18.7% | $69,000 |
| 2304593 | Rutherford Boro | $599,000 | $525,000 | $490,000 | 18.2% | $109,000 |
| 2343246 | Ridgewood Village | $689,000 | $599,900 | $565,000 | 18.0% | $124,000 |
| 2379258 | Harrington Park | $634,900 | $536,000 | $521,000 | 17.9% | $113,900 |
| 2366677 | Hillsdale Boro | $999,000 | $849,900 | $825,000 | 17.4% | $174,000 |
| 2381954 | Ridgewood Village | $575,000 | $500,000 | $475,000 | 17.4% | $100,000 |
| 2373561 | Garfield City | $399,000 | $379,900 | $330,000 | 17.3% | $69,000 |
| 2385159 | Fair Lawn Boro | $409,900 | $369,900 | $340,000 | 17.1% | $69,900 |
| 2387977 | Fair Lawn Boro | $239,000 | $219,000 | $200,000 | 16.3% | $39,000 |
| 2326403 | Waldwick Boro | $639,000 | $599,000 | $535,000 | 16.3% | $104,000 |
| 2359581 | Fair Lawn Boro | $739,000 | $649,000 | $620,000 | 16.1% | $119,000 |
| 2344733 | Saddle River Boro | $2,499,000 | $2,299,000 | $2,100,000 | 16.0% | $399,000 |
| 2396552 | Ridgewood Village | $1,495,000 | $1,385,000 | $1,260,000 | 15.7% | $235,000 |
| 2388007 | Fair Lawn Boro | $239,000 | $219,000 | $201,500 | 15.7% | $37,500 |
| 2370727 | Rutherford Boro | $258,900 | $238,000 | $219,000 | 15.4% | $39,900 |
| 2409191 | Franklin Lakes | $1,999,900 | $1,999,900 | $1,700,000 | 15.0% | $299,900 |
| 2327838 | Waldwick Boro | $599,000 | $529,900 | $510,000 | 14.9% | $89,000 |
| 2328085 | Tenafly Boro | $1,387,000 | $1,255,000 | $1,190,000 | 14.2% | $197,000 |
| 2384248 | Oakland Boro | $739,900 | $739,900 | $635,000 | 14.2% | $104,900 |
| 2304254 | Oakland Boro | $529,900 | $469,900 | $455,000 | 14.1% | $74,900 |
| 2320344 | Mahwah Twp. | $559,000 | $524,000 | $480,000 | 14.1% | $79,000 |
| 2409177 | Emerson Boro | $899,900 | $849,900 | $775,000 | 13.9% | $124,900 |
| 2412730 | Franklin Lakes | $8,445,000 | $8,445,000 | $7,300,000 | 13.6% | $1.145m |
| 2370198 | Ridgewood Village | $925,000 | $795,000 | $800,000 | 13.5% | $125,000 |
| 2318280 | Paramus Boro | $379,000 | $349,900 | $330,000 | 12.9% | $49,000 |
| 2398117 | Lodi Boro | $327,000 | $319,000 | $285,000 | 12.8% | $42,000 |
| 2387315 | Garfield City | $389,900 | $369,900 | $340,000 | 12.8% | $49,900 |
| 2395588 | Ridgewood Village | $749,000 | $699,000 | $655,000 | 12.6% | $94,000 |
| 2300974 | Mahwah Twp. | $849,000 | $774,900 | $742,500 | 12.5% | $106,500 |
| 2372219 | Rochelle Park Twp. | $479,900 | $439,900 | $420,000 | 12.5% | $59,900 |
| 2402380 | Glen Rock Boro | $439,900 | $424,900 | $385,000 | 12.5% | $54,900 |
| 2378161 | Wyckoff Twp. | $899,900 | $825,000 | $789,000 | 12.3% | $110,900 |
| 2390180 | Wyckoff Twp. | $815,000 | $749,900 | $714,800 | 12.3% | $100,200 |
| 2304941 | Saddle Brook Twp. | $469,900 | $445,000 | $412,500 | 12.2% | $57,400 |
| 2384515 | Wyckoff Twp. | $1,195,000 | $1,135,000 | $1,050,000 | 12.1% | $145,000 |
| 2399768 | Midland Park Boro | $995,000 | $919,000 | $875,000 | 12.1% | $120,000 |
| 2392235 | Oakland Boro | $699,000 | $629,000 | $615,000 | 12.0% | $84,000 |
| 2390143 | Allendale Boro | $1,079,000 | $989,000 | $950,000 | 12.0% | $129,000 |
| 2366817 | Waldwick Boro | $464,900 | $435,000 | $410,000 | 11.8% | $54,900 |
| 2363581 | Ridgewood Village | $1,700,000 | $1,700,000 | $1,500,000 | 11.8% | $200,000 |
| 2325320 | Allendale Boro | $699,000 | $619,000 | $620,000 | 11.3% | $79,000 |
| 2378810 | Wyckoff Twp. | $689,000 | $649,000 | $612,000 | 11.2% | $77,000 |
| 2320022 | Upper Saddle River | $1,095,000 | $999,900 | $975,000 | 11.0% | $120,000 |
| 2316931 | Rutherford Boro | $480,000 | $460,000 | $427,500 | 10.9% | $52,500 |
| 2381664 | Ridgewood Village | $595,000 | $565,000 | $530,000 | 10.9% | $65,000 |
| 2335667 | Waldwick Boro | $425,000 | $385,000 | $379,812 | 10.6% | $45,188 |
| 2383061 | Oakland Boro | $575,000 | $525,000 | $514,000 | 10.6% | $61,000 |
| 2359654 | River Edge Boro | $559,000 | $537,000 | $500,000 | 10.6% | $59,000 |
| 2382077 | Ridgewood Village | $689,999 | $639,000 | $617,500 | 10.5% | $72,499 |
| 2366742 | Ramsey Boro | $550,000 | $518,000 | $493,000 | 10.4% | $57,000 |
| 2417655 | Elmwood Park | $484,900 | $465,000 | $435,000 | 10.3% | $49,900 |
| 2319779 | Upper Saddle River | $924,900 | $849,900 | $830,000 | 10.3% | $94,900 |
| 2379186 | Mahwah Twp.* | $919,000 | $850,000 | $825,000 | 10.2% | $94,000 |
| 2415583 | Fair Lawn Boro | $529,000 | $499,000 | $475,000 | 10.2% | $54,000 |
| 2379809 | Tenafly Boro | $739,000 | $669,000 | $664,000 | 10.1% | $75,000 |
| 2362254 | North Arlington Boro | $345,000 | $310,000 | $310,000 | 10.1% | $35,000 |
| 2294893 | Wyckoff Twp. | $739,900 | $739,900 | $665,000 | 10.1% | $74,900 |
| 2385816 | Wyckoff Twp. | $839,900 | $839,900 | $755,000 | 10.1% | $84,900 |
| 2380369 | Upper Saddle River | $1,099,000 | $1,099,000 | $989,000 | 10.0% | $110,000 |
| 2413091 | Ridgewood Village | $524,900 | $499,000 | $472,500 | 10.0% | $52,400 |
| 2391823 | Garfield City | $399,900 | $389,000 | $360,000 | 10.0% | $39,900 |
there was a feeling a couple of years ago that the California market was 6-12 months ahead of NJ. Does this still apply?
jb,
Can you please post a link to the excel sheet?
I guess that by October/Nov, we’ll be seeing a lowball with far more 20-30% off orig list price and maybe even a 40% off OLP.
Blood 3-
I think its too early to call those percentages. I’m not sure it will happen that quickly. I believe 50% off is possible but before I say its probable, I’d like to see how our lovely president’s plan plays out.
This is a great item, thanks for posting it!!!
But what was the total number of sales for the period from which these were taken? I’d like to determine if these sales were as rare as lotto winners or becoming more the norm. (And #2’s request for Excel would be fab, since we could then toggle columns and more easily see what’s going on with homes in our price range.)
Will post the xls for this set when I get back home. Duke, I usually post the datasets for exactly those reasons. I’ll address your other comments at that time as well.
No fun blogging from the blackberry.
Jb
I hate the customer service on this site. It’s like going to the DMV :(
lostninny - My guess at those months is based on the foreclosures that are expected to happen this fall. They will begin in earnest in Oct and get worst in November.
http://njrereport.com/files/lbberg.xls
jb
jb, do you ever feel used?
Great work JB!
Some quick questions: do the MLS numbers correspond to GSMLS or NJMLS? Are they the original MLS numbers or the numbers under which the houses sold? I’m asking all this because I’m finally seeing some huge lowballs in Fair Lawn on the under 400K range (hurrah!) but the MLS numbers you post start with 22 or 23, which suggest houses that were pot for sale back in early 2006. Is that right?
On saving money in the NY Times … forget coming up with 10% .. who can possibly hack 20%? The days of I/O loans are over.
http://www.nytimes.com/2007/09/01/business/yourmoney/01shortcuts.html?em&ex=1188964800&en=d99324b2b2414e12&ei=5087%0A
“I know, times are tight and 7 out of 10 Americans report living paycheck to paycheck, meaning there never seems to be enough left over for savings. In 1985, Americans were saving $11 for every $100 they brought home; now the savings rate is around zero, and debt is at a record high.”
Don’t care how big of a buying pool is on the sidelines … if you cant put 10% down, you wont be getting into house
#12
How many people on this site have a budget or even know how much their fixed costs are every month?
I would venture less than 1/2
Home Seller,
I use Quicken to track things and budget.
SAS
bloodbath, #12
Nightline did a segment recently on a family that owns a house and two cars with no debt.
The parents are kamikaze coupon and specials shoppers - they communicate via walkie talkie while in the supermarket. A family of 7, and they buy their clothes at thift shops.
This is going to be the new thing - Young people behaving like Depression babies when it comes to spending money.
#13 home seller
Good job insulting 1/2 the people on thbis site (not sure which half)
I’ll place you int the bottom 2% in smarts, thanks
Home Seller:
No budget here. Guilty.
However, we save 10-20% of earnings at all times, live below our means, could buy a house cash if we wanted to, and have no debt.
Do we need a budget? Please vote.
From the Aug26th issue of NY Times:
Drop Foreseen in Median Price of Homes in the US.
“In an interview , Mr. Lereah now an executive at Move Inc., which operates a real estate Web site, acknowledged that he had gotten it wrong, saying he did not fully realize how loose lending standards had become and how quick they would tighten up again this summer. But he argued that many of is critics have also been proved wrong, because they were bearish as early 2002. ”
“The bears were bears way too early and the bulls were bulls too late” he said. “You need to know when you are straying from the fundamentals. It’s hard when you are in the middle of the storm, to know”
_________________________________
Wow !!, this from the ex-chief economists at the NAR? Now that he doesn’t work for NAR, he is free to speak his mind.
From NY Times (Sept 1st)
Lender Rejects Suitor Plan to Lower Price of deal.
“Accredited Home Lenders Holding rebuffed a private equity firm’s effort to pay less for the company, saying Friday that it would continue a lawsuit aimed at closing the deal at the price previously agreed”
“Lone Start agreed in June to pay $15.10 a share, or $400 million, for accredited, a sub-prime mortgage lender. But late Thursday, Lone Start told the mortgage lender that it wanted to pay $8.50 a share.”
_____________________________________
Nice ! A shotgun wedding. Wonder how investors in Lone star feel about seeing over $200 million disappear even before the deal has gone through. Kind of reminds me of the home buyers who jumped in to the market in 2005 and 2006 thinking that the worst was behind and they were getting a deal.
188k wall street fluff jobs on the chopping block….
http://www.marketwatch.com/news/story/wall-street-hiring-machine-goes/story.aspx?guid=%7B019FFB06%2DE822%2D4EA0%2D9BE8%2DB48B97F54FA6%7D
From the AP:
No Quick Action Expected on Mortgages
Want government help to get out of a bad subprime mortgage? Don’t look for Congress to come to your rescue anytime soon.
Lawmakers have lots of ideas and plans — as well as hearings to share their concerns and assess blame — but there’s no consensus on how to stop the foreclosures. The only thing everyone has agreed on is that something must be done.
“We may have as many as 1 million to 3 million people who could lose their homes, not because they lost their jobs, not because the economy collapsed, but because they got bad deals on mortgages,” said Sen. Christopher Dodd, D-Conn., chairman of the Senate Banking, Housing and Urban Affairs Committee.
House and Senate lawmakers are working on different plans to help Americans out of the mortgage crisis, none of which seems ready for a prime-time signing by President Bush. Dodd acknowledged as much last week as he urged the White House to take action, despite all the mortgage-related legislation his committee has planned for the fall.
“Those matters will take a little more time,” Dodd said.
Don’t worry if it is anything like Dodd’s quick turn-a-round of the Credit Card study that he launched sometime last year–then the people will be bankrupt and their property sold long before he and congress do anything of substance.
James,
Could you please post do lowball in middlesex county? Thanks.
“188k wall street fluff jobs on the chopping block”
Let’em get chopped.
SAS
#16
whoa, my bad…I meant to say the population in general….
I am curious who does and doesn’t know what they spend on since it has such a big effect on what you can save for a home.
#17
Yeah, same here. Live below my means so I can provide for my kids.
I actually don’t have a “budget” per se, but I always pay myself first w/pre tax and some taxable savings…
“188k wall street fluff jobs on the chopping block”
188K out of 848K, that’s nothing, most departments I know of, have quadrupled their staffing in the last 2 years. Weeeeeeeee layoffs are coming, weeeeeeeeee, how am I going to afford that 1 bedroom apartment in Hoboken for $500K? Weeeeeeeeeeee
What’s so scary about the entire real-estate bubble is the price level in NYC, then dust settles prices may have to come down as much as 70% in NYC. Reading the horror stories from CA, FL, and NV will seem like kids book when the entire NYC market takes a dive. How will 200K loss on a house in CA compares to a 2M loss on a 2 bedroom apartment in Soho?
whoa, my bad…I meant to say the population in general….
I am curious who does and doesn’t know what they spend on since it has such a big effect on what you can save for a home.
What about the ~13,000 NJ homeowners that found themselves in default on their mortgages in the first half of 2007 (Realtytrac)?
I’m guessing they don’t budget either..
jb
sx (22)-
Everything in DC is a big j-off and flim-flam.
Nothing of substance will be done. Nothing really can be done, except allowing the market to blow out the losses and purge itself.
#29
Agree 100%. I would guess majority of those people fell into that situation due to poor financial management.
They do say have a 6 month emergency fund for a reason, you know.
JB, thanks for all of your hard work this weekend! Such awesome “summer’s over” graphs & a comprehensive lowball, too! I feel badly you didn’t get the usual traffic, but tons will check in tomorrow & see your efforts.
TY!
JB-
Thanks for all the info. Interesting stuff.
JM
#32
Second that motion
Thanks, jb
Is there any way to find out the MLS details after the sale has closed. I would like to use 2304593 to beat up my Rutherford realtor with ….. :*)
JB: A big thanks for posting the Excel which I’m looking thru now. I’ve been reading your fantastic site at least every morning since I first came across it last month and have taken a half-dozen other sites off my bookmarks list since you cover their grounds so much better.
RE BUDGETS: For my wife & I, they are non-existant. No debt aside from several maxed out CCs contributing to our own version of the carry trade (using high-yield FDIC insured money markets). But we are also down to the penny every day via Quicken, and same for my biz via QuickBooks. When we do buy things, we shop hard and time the purchases for the best “ROI” possible….love sales! And that mentality has served us well as we also rent here in NJ after giving up house hunting two years ago out of pure disgust. The numbers made absolutely no sense whatsoever–probably because we are planning to buy w/out a mortgage and know what that will do to our Quicken numbers. (The horror.) By not looking at the “affordability” of monthly payments alone (which should only be done when renting, duh!!!) as “budgeters” might be tempted to do, it’s the total price that must be justified to us. And that’s still not even close to happening around here.
#36 “And that’s still not even close to happening around here.”
But it is getting there.
Great listing….Can someone do one for Somerset county using GSMLS? Would love to see the impact in that area.