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	<title>Comments on: Pessimistic or realistic?</title>
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	<link>http://njrereport.com/index.php/2007/09/26/pessimistic-or-realistic/</link>
	<description>Real Estate, Economics, and Politics</description>
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		<title>By: Zhang Fei</title>
		<link>http://njrereport.com/index.php/2007/09/26/pessimistic-or-realistic/#comment-126939</link>
		<dc:creator>Zhang Fei</dc:creator>
		<pubDate>Sun, 30 Sep 2007 23:28:45 +0000</pubDate>
		<guid isPermaLink="false">http://njrereport.com/index.php/2007/09/26/pessimistic-or-realistic/#comment-126939</guid>
		<description>Roach: &lt;i&gt;Yet history is clear: no nation has ever devalued its way into prosperity.&lt;/i&gt;

I wish he would spell out in greater detail the consequences of devaluation. He huffs and puffs and gives us dire warnings of bad things to come. But the reality is that South Korea came back big from its devaluation. As did the UK from Soros&#039;s currency attack. Every devaluation has within itself the seeds of a revaluation - the country&#039;s wages and assets become cheap relative to foreign markets, and prompt large inflows of foreign direct and portfolio investment. Brokerages making leveraged bets based on assumptions of stable currencies (like Goldman Sachs) may take huge losses if a major devaluation happens, but it&#039;s not the job of the Federal Reserve to shield wealthy Wall Street speculators from the consequences of their arrogant, unwise and, frankly, stupid actions.

By the way, in the early &#039;80&#039;s, the dollar bought roughly 2 Chinese yuan (RMB). Today, it buys 7.5 Chinese yuan. The Chinese devaluation vs the dollar - since the &#039;80&#039;s - doesn&#039;t seem to have hurt the Chinese economy much.</description>
		<content:encoded><![CDATA[<p>Roach: <i>Yet history is clear: no nation has ever devalued its way into prosperity.</i></p>
<p>I wish he would spell out in greater detail the consequences of devaluation. He huffs and puffs and gives us dire warnings of bad things to come. But the reality is that South Korea came back big from its devaluation. As did the UK from Soros&#8217;s currency attack. Every devaluation has within itself the seeds of a revaluation &#8211; the country&#8217;s wages and assets become cheap relative to foreign markets, and prompt large inflows of foreign direct and portfolio investment. Brokerages making leveraged bets based on assumptions of stable currencies (like Goldman Sachs) may take huge losses if a major devaluation happens, but it&#8217;s not the job of the Federal Reserve to shield wealthy Wall Street speculators from the consequences of their arrogant, unwise and, frankly, stupid actions.</p>
<p>By the way, in the early &#8217;80&#8242;s, the dollar bought roughly 2 Chinese yuan (RMB). Today, it buys 7.5 Chinese yuan. The Chinese devaluation vs the dollar &#8211; since the &#8217;80&#8242;s &#8211; doesn&#8217;t seem to have hurt the Chinese economy much.</p>
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		<title>By: otis wildflower</title>
		<link>http://njrereport.com/index.php/2007/09/26/pessimistic-or-realistic/#comment-126435</link>
		<dc:creator>otis wildflower</dc:creator>
		<pubDate>Thu, 27 Sep 2007 17:46:01 +0000</pubDate>
		<guid isPermaLink="false">http://njrereport.com/index.php/2007/09/26/pessimistic-or-realistic/#comment-126435</guid>
		<description>&quot;With one exception. One guy said to me, oh don’t worry about me, I’m diversified. I own just as much Lucent as AT&amp;T……..&quot;

ROFL!

(Bought IBM with employee discount at adjusted $25/share, sold at $108..  Was kicking myself that I sold before the peak, but after it laid around in the doldrums for awhile, I learned: you can _never_ time the peak, if you try you&#039;ll end up on the other side...)</description>
		<content:encoded><![CDATA[<p>&#8220;With one exception. One guy said to me, oh don’t worry about me, I’m diversified. I own just as much Lucent as AT&amp;T……..&#8221;</p>
<p>ROFL!</p>
<p>(Bought IBM with employee discount at adjusted $25/share, sold at $108..  Was kicking myself that I sold before the peak, but after it laid around in the doldrums for awhile, I learned: you can _never_ time the peak, if you try you&#8217;ll end up on the other side&#8230;)</p>
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		<title>By: njpatient</title>
		<link>http://njrereport.com/index.php/2007/09/26/pessimistic-or-realistic/#comment-126305</link>
		<dc:creator>njpatient</dc:creator>
		<pubDate>Thu, 27 Sep 2007 04:36:16 +0000</pubDate>
		<guid isPermaLink="false">http://njrereport.com/index.php/2007/09/26/pessimistic-or-realistic/#comment-126305</guid>
		<description>#214
&quot;Report controls for renovation spending by calculating returns on flips with 3 to 6 month holding periods.&quot;

Horse pucky.</description>
		<content:encoded><![CDATA[<p>#214<br />
&#8220;Report controls for renovation spending by calculating returns on flips with 3 to 6 month holding periods.&#8221;</p>
<p>Horse pucky.</p>
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		<title>By: njrebear</title>
		<link>http://njrereport.com/index.php/2007/09/26/pessimistic-or-realistic/#comment-126304</link>
		<dc:creator>njrebear</dc:creator>
		<pubDate>Thu, 27 Sep 2007 03:26:26 +0000</pubDate>
		<guid isPermaLink="false">http://njrereport.com/index.php/2007/09/26/pessimistic-or-realistic/#comment-126304</guid>
		<description>&quot;i’m up $350k on my house since i bought it and around $200k &quot;


Is this the one you bought in 2006?</description>
		<content:encoded><![CDATA[<p>&#8220;i’m up $350k on my house since i bought it and around $200k &#8221;</p>
<p>Is this the one you bought in 2006?</p>
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		<title>By: njrebear</title>
		<link>http://njrereport.com/index.php/2007/09/26/pessimistic-or-realistic/#comment-126303</link>
		<dc:creator>njrebear</dc:creator>
		<pubDate>Thu, 27 Sep 2007 03:20:53 +0000</pubDate>
		<guid isPermaLink="false">http://njrereport.com/index.php/2007/09/26/pessimistic-or-realistic/#comment-126303</guid>
		<description>BHP, Rio Tinto, Vale May Increase Iron Ore Prices 30%

http://www.bloomberg.com/apps/news?pid=20601087&amp;sid=a3MsHgljSTLg&amp;refer=home</description>
		<content:encoded><![CDATA[<p>BHP, Rio Tinto, Vale May Increase Iron Ore Prices 30%</p>
<p><a href="http://www.bloomberg.com/apps/news?pid=20601087&amp;sid=a3MsHgljSTLg&amp;refer=home" rel="nofollow">http://www.bloomberg.com/apps/news?pid=20601087&amp;sid=a3MsHgljSTLg&amp;refer=home</a></p>
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		<title>By: chicagofinance</title>
		<link>http://njrereport.com/index.php/2007/09/26/pessimistic-or-realistic/#comment-126302</link>
		<dc:creator>chicagofinance</dc:creator>
		<pubDate>Thu, 27 Sep 2007 03:05:39 +0000</pubDate>
		<guid isPermaLink="false">http://njrereport.com/index.php/2007/09/26/pessimistic-or-realistic/#comment-126302</guid>
		<description>RE: Lucent stock....

When I worked at AT&amp;T, I had long drawn out conversations with other employees about how important it was to avoid AT&amp;T exposure.  I was always met with blank stares.  With one exception.  One guy said to me, oh don&#039;t worry about me, I&#039;m diversified.  I own just as much Lucent as AT&amp;T........</description>
		<content:encoded><![CDATA[<p>RE: Lucent stock&#8230;.</p>
<p>When I worked at AT&amp;T, I had long drawn out conversations with other employees about how important it was to avoid AT&amp;T exposure.  I was always met with blank stares.  With one exception.  One guy said to me, oh don&#8217;t worry about me, I&#8217;m diversified.  I own just as much Lucent as AT&amp;T&#8230;&#8230;..</p>
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		<title>By: dblko</title>
		<link>http://njrereport.com/index.php/2007/09/26/pessimistic-or-realistic/#comment-126301</link>
		<dc:creator>dblko</dc:creator>
		<pubDate>Thu, 27 Sep 2007 03:03:18 +0000</pubDate>
		<guid isPermaLink="false">http://njrereport.com/index.php/2007/09/26/pessimistic-or-realistic/#comment-126301</guid>
		<description>Too bad about HSBC. What are other good places to park cash?

Some investment advisor at my bank tried to talk me into non-taxable short term insured municipals, but I did not follow up at that time. Does anyone has an idea what this is all about?</description>
		<content:encoded><![CDATA[<p>Too bad about HSBC. What are other good places to park cash?</p>
<p>Some investment advisor at my bank tried to talk me into non-taxable short term insured municipals, but I did not follow up at that time. Does anyone has an idea what this is all about?</p>
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		<title>By: mr potter</title>
		<link>http://njrereport.com/index.php/2007/09/26/pessimistic-or-realistic/#comment-126300</link>
		<dc:creator>mr potter</dc:creator>
		<pubDate>Thu, 27 Sep 2007 02:58:53 +0000</pubDate>
		<guid isPermaLink="false">http://njrereport.com/index.php/2007/09/26/pessimistic-or-realistic/#comment-126300</guid>
		<description>Thanks Ben..........what a jackass</description>
		<content:encoded><![CDATA[<p>Thanks Ben&#8230;&#8230;&#8230;.what a jackass</p>
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		<title>By: syncmaster</title>
		<link>http://njrereport.com/index.php/2007/09/26/pessimistic-or-realistic/#comment-126299</link>
		<dc:creator>syncmaster</dc:creator>
		<pubDate>Thu, 27 Sep 2007 02:45:45 +0000</pubDate>
		<guid isPermaLink="false">http://njrereport.com/index.php/2007/09/26/pessimistic-or-realistic/#comment-126299</guid>
		<description>5.05 was good while it lasted. F*** you, Ben.

&lt;i&gt;Dear xxxxx,

We are writing to let you know HSBC Direct has adjusted your Online Savings Account interest rate to 4.50% APY*.&lt;/I&gt;</description>
		<content:encoded><![CDATA[<p>5.05 was good while it lasted. F*** you, Ben.</p>
<p><i>Dear xxxxx,</p>
<p>We are writing to let you know HSBC Direct has adjusted your Online Savings Account interest rate to 4.50% APY*.</i></p>
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		<title>By: HEHEHE</title>
		<link>http://njrereport.com/index.php/2007/09/26/pessimistic-or-realistic/#comment-126298</link>
		<dc:creator>HEHEHE</dc:creator>
		<pubDate>Thu, 27 Sep 2007 02:32:23 +0000</pubDate>
		<guid isPermaLink="false">http://njrereport.com/index.php/2007/09/26/pessimistic-or-realistic/#comment-126298</guid>
		<description>Man the Mets know how to blow a ballgame.</description>
		<content:encoded><![CDATA[<p>Man the Mets know how to blow a ballgame.</p>
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		<title>By: was looking</title>
		<link>http://njrereport.com/index.php/2007/09/26/pessimistic-or-realistic/#comment-126297</link>
		<dc:creator>was looking</dc:creator>
		<pubDate>Thu, 27 Sep 2007 02:10:09 +0000</pubDate>
		<guid isPermaLink="false">http://njrereport.com/index.php/2007/09/26/pessimistic-or-realistic/#comment-126297</guid>
		<description>receiving listings from my realtor who rented me my apt about a year ago - came looking for me to discuss my buying plans etc and now receiving mls listings in union county.
Just my impression but it seems the prices for town homes/condos are priced higher than that of SFH&#039;s. Any reality to this?</description>
		<content:encoded><![CDATA[<p>receiving listings from my realtor who rented me my apt about a year ago &#8211; came looking for me to discuss my buying plans etc and now receiving mls listings in union county.<br />
Just my impression but it seems the prices for town homes/condos are priced higher than that of SFH&#8217;s. Any reality to this?</p>
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		<title>By: BC Bob</title>
		<link>http://njrereport.com/index.php/2007/09/26/pessimistic-or-realistic/#comment-126296</link>
		<dc:creator>BC Bob</dc:creator>
		<pubDate>Thu, 27 Sep 2007 02:08:48 +0000</pubDate>
		<guid isPermaLink="false">http://njrereport.com/index.php/2007/09/26/pessimistic-or-realistic/#comment-126296</guid>
		<description>[245],

2nd Quarter, 2006. LOL! The dance at the bottom didn&#039;t even begin at that point. Love to see 2nd quarter 2007.

Wasn&#039;t the largest concentration of flippers in CA, NV, AZ and FLA? Most flippers have quietly exited and trying to figure where to place their cash, in these states?  I do agree with you on one point, they are quiet.</description>
		<content:encoded><![CDATA[<p>[245],</p>
<p>2nd Quarter, 2006. LOL! The dance at the bottom didn&#8217;t even begin at that point. Love to see 2nd quarter 2007.</p>
<p>Wasn&#8217;t the largest concentration of flippers in CA, NV, AZ and FLA? Most flippers have quietly exited and trying to figure where to place their cash, in these states?  I do agree with you on one point, they are quiet.</p>
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		<title>By: pretorius</title>
		<link>http://njrereport.com/index.php/2007/09/26/pessimistic-or-realistic/#comment-126295</link>
		<dc:creator>pretorius</dc:creator>
		<pubDate>Thu, 27 Sep 2007 01:50:02 +0000</pubDate>
		<guid isPermaLink="false">http://njrereport.com/index.php/2007/09/26/pessimistic-or-realistic/#comment-126295</guid>
		<description>BC Bob,

Thank you for that link.  I dug a little deeper and found the source data.  

Flippers earned profits in 141 out of 147 MSAs in 2006.  Amazingly, the guy who wrote the article concluded from this data that &quot;flippers are losing money hand over fist.&quot;

http://www.homesmartreports.com/docs/hsrnews/flippingactivity92106.htm</description>
		<content:encoded><![CDATA[<p>BC Bob,</p>
<p>Thank you for that link.  I dug a little deeper and found the source data.  </p>
<p>Flippers earned profits in 141 out of 147 MSAs in 2006.  Amazingly, the guy who wrote the article concluded from this data that &#8220;flippers are losing money hand over fist.&#8221;</p>
<p><a href="http://www.homesmartreports.com/docs/hsrnews/flippingactivity92106.htm" rel="nofollow">http://www.homesmartreports.com/docs/hsrnews/flippingactivity92106.htm</a></p>
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		<title>By: Essex</title>
		<link>http://njrereport.com/index.php/2007/09/26/pessimistic-or-realistic/#comment-126294</link>
		<dc:creator>Essex</dc:creator>
		<pubDate>Thu, 27 Sep 2007 01:09:13 +0000</pubDate>
		<guid isPermaLink="false">http://njrereport.com/index.php/2007/09/26/pessimistic-or-realistic/#comment-126294</guid>
		<description>Oh, and the similiarity between the decimation of the portfolio--all eggs/one basket....and this latest crisis are interesting.  Homes were the retirement nest egg for many. Now, not so much.</description>
		<content:encoded><![CDATA[<p>Oh, and the similiarity between the decimation of the portfolio&#8211;all eggs/one basket&#8230;.and this latest crisis are interesting.  Homes were the retirement nest egg for many. Now, not so much.</p>
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		<title>By: Essex</title>
		<link>http://njrereport.com/index.php/2007/09/26/pessimistic-or-realistic/#comment-126293</link>
		<dc:creator>Essex</dc:creator>
		<pubDate>Thu, 27 Sep 2007 00:59:23 +0000</pubDate>
		<guid isPermaLink="false">http://njrereport.com/index.php/2007/09/26/pessimistic-or-realistic/#comment-126293</guid>
		<description>#235--Listen to this one. One hotshot had all his retirment money in Lucent. at the peak had roughly $900,000 + in the stock. when I last spoke to him several years ago had under $150,000 in the stock. 
+++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++

Did some business with them in 98....bought a bunch at 50 or so...sold at 70....my broker said it was &#039;like att&#039;...widows and orphans fund...no one should be without it.....then it went to single digits....I was shocked.  Completely blown away. But glad I&#039;d sold.</description>
		<content:encoded><![CDATA[<p>#235&#8211;Listen to this one. One hotshot had all his retirment money in Lucent. at the peak had roughly $900,000 + in the stock. when I last spoke to him several years ago had under $150,000 in the stock.<br />
+++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++</p>
<p>Did some business with them in 98&#8230;.bought a bunch at 50 or so&#8230;sold at 70&#8230;.my broker said it was &#8216;like att&#8217;&#8230;widows and orphans fund&#8230;no one should be without it&#8230;..then it went to single digits&#8230;.I was shocked.  Completely blown away. But glad I&#8217;d sold.</p>
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