From the NY Times:
Every time economists and Wall Street executives think they have acknowledged the full extent of the losses from the meltdown in real estate mortgages, more bad news turns up.
Merrill Lynch said yesterday that it would take a charge for mortgage-related securities on its books that is $3 billion more than the $5 billion it expected just two weeks ago. And a report from the National Association of Realtors showed that sales of existing homes in September fell twice as much as economists had expected, to their lowest level in nearly 10 years.
Stocks fell sharply early yesterday on the news, with the Standard & Poor’s 500-stock index falling 1.8 percent before recovering in the afternoon. Investors also bid up Treasuries as they sought the safety of government-backed debt.
At this juncture, economists say the troubles in the mortgage market could, all told, cost financial firms and investors up to $400 billion.
That is far more than the roughly $240 billion cost, adjusted for inflation, of the savings and loan crisis of the early 1990s, according to estimates of the combined financial toll of that crisis on both the federal government and private sector. The loss in total real estate wealth is expected to range from $2 trillion to $4 trillion, depending on how far home prices fall, according to several economists.
That would be significantly less than the losses suffered by investors in the stock market collapse earlier this decade, which erased more than $7 trillion, or about 40 percent, of market value.
Experts caution that these estimates are preliminary and the total costs could get bigger still. They also note that the loss of real estate wealth could prove more damaging for the general public than falling stock values because more American families own homes than own stock.
In a new report to be issued today, the Joint Economic Committee of Congress predicts about two million foreclosures by the end of next year on homes purchased with subprime mortgages. That estimate is far higher than the Bush administration’s prediction in September of 500,000 foreclosures, which in itself would be a tidal wave compared with recent years. Congressional aides provided details of the report yesterday to The New York Times.
The Joint Economic Committee estimates that the lost of real estate wealth just from foreclosures on subprime loans will be about $71 billion. An additional $32 billion would be lost because foreclosed homes tend to drive down the prices of other houses in the neighborhood.
Those figures would cause a decline of $917 million in lost property tax revenue to state and local governments, which will also have to spend more on policing neighborhoods with vacant homes. The states most likely to be hard hit fall into two categories: those where prices had been rising fastest, like California and Florida, and Midwest states with weak economies, like Michigan and Ohio, where people with low or moderate incomes made heavy use of subprime loans to become homeowners and consolidate debts.
“State by state, the economic costs from the subprime debacle are shockingly high,” said Senator Charles E. Schumer, Democrat of New York and the chairman of the Joint Economic Committee. “From New York to California, we are headed for billions in lost wealth, property values and tax revenues.”
The much bigger losses will be in declining real estate prices. Household real estate currently totals about $21 trillion, according to the Federal Reserve.
Global Insight, a research firm, predicts that the national average for housing prices will drop 5 percent over the next year and 10 percent before mid-2009, for a total of about $2 trillion. Economists at Goldman Sachs have predicted prices will drop by 15 percent, meaning an overall decline of more than $3 trillion; other forecasters have said the decline could be 20 percent or more.
House prices decline slowly, because many potential sellers simply stay in their current homes when they think prices are too low. But that becomes more difficult as people have to move either because of job changes or, increasingly, because their monthly payments are rising sharply. In the next 18 months, interest rates on more than two million homes loans will reset to higher adjustable rates.
The housing bust has also led to job losses. From the start of 2003 to March 2006, housing-related businesses like mortgage companies, home builders and contractors added 1.3 million jobs, or about 23 percent of all new jobs created in that period, according to an analysis by Mark Zandi, chief economist at Moody’s Economy.com.
Since then, the housing business has shed 383,000 jobs, while the rest of the economy has added nearly three million jobs.
Jan Hatzius, chief United States economist at Goldman Sachs, said the small decline in housing employment thus far is surprising and suggests more layoffs are ahead.
“You still have a million jobs that aren’t really needed anymore due to the downturn in housing,” he said.