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	<title>Comments on: October S&amp;P/Case Shiller Home Price Indicies</title>
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	<link>http://njrereport.com/index.php/2007/10/30/october-spcase-shiller-home-price-indicies/</link>
	<description>Real Estate, Economics, and Politics</description>
	<lastBuildDate>Thu, 09 Feb 2012 18:17:46 +0000</lastBuildDate>
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		<title>By: Trader</title>
		<link>http://njrereport.com/index.php/2007/10/30/october-spcase-shiller-home-price-indicies/#comment-132025</link>
		<dc:creator>Trader</dc:creator>
		<pubDate>Wed, 31 Oct 2007 22:59:52 +0000</pubDate>
		<guid isPermaLink="false">http://njrereport.com/index.php/2007/10/30/october-spcase-shiller-home-price-indicies/#comment-132025</guid>
		<description>Reinvestor (85)

The bloggers on this site didn&#039;t create Alt A, Interest Only, Sub-prime, and Negative AM.  You&#039;ve just gone through a period of time when you&#039;ve had a whole society forget about sales prices and instead focus only on the immediate monthly payment of homes.  On a Negative AM, anyone can buy a nice place in Greenwich CT.  So prices haven&#039;t reflected ability to pay since everyone believed that real estate can&#039;t go down.  Now that it has and Wall Street has lost billions, lending standards have tightened and PRICE and DOWN PAYMENTS magically matter again.

In the long run, real estate should yield about 8 percent per year on a comparative basis to renting the equivalent home.  Thus, if you look at a place that would rent for 3,000 (36,000 per year) per month and a similar home has taxes of 6,000 per year, it&#039;s present value should be equal to a 30 year annuity of 2,500 per month using an 8 percent discount rate.  This works out to a price of $340,000.  If the place costs less, it&#039;s cheap relative to the long run equilibrium; if it&#039;s more it&#039;s expensive.

If you look around, I think you will find property is extremely overvalued relative to rents and over time things revert to the mean.  All the complaining in the world about bloggers won&#039;t change this fact and attempts by the fed to cut rates won&#039;t make 30 year mortgages cheaper because they will inject inflation into the economy and thereby reduce affordability for people who purchase homes prudently and fix their rates.

Before you make a comment like you did, you might want to consider educating yourself a bit about the markets.</description>
		<content:encoded><![CDATA[<p>Reinvestor (85)</p>
<p>The bloggers on this site didn&#8217;t create Alt A, Interest Only, Sub-prime, and Negative AM.  You&#8217;ve just gone through a period of time when you&#8217;ve had a whole society forget about sales prices and instead focus only on the immediate monthly payment of homes.  On a Negative AM, anyone can buy a nice place in Greenwich CT.  So prices haven&#8217;t reflected ability to pay since everyone believed that real estate can&#8217;t go down.  Now that it has and Wall Street has lost billions, lending standards have tightened and PRICE and DOWN PAYMENTS magically matter again.</p>
<p>In the long run, real estate should yield about 8 percent per year on a comparative basis to renting the equivalent home.  Thus, if you look at a place that would rent for 3,000 (36,000 per year) per month and a similar home has taxes of 6,000 per year, it&#8217;s present value should be equal to a 30 year annuity of 2,500 per month using an 8 percent discount rate.  This works out to a price of $340,000.  If the place costs less, it&#8217;s cheap relative to the long run equilibrium; if it&#8217;s more it&#8217;s expensive.</p>
<p>If you look around, I think you will find property is extremely overvalued relative to rents and over time things revert to the mean.  All the complaining in the world about bloggers won&#8217;t change this fact and attempts by the fed to cut rates won&#8217;t make 30 year mortgages cheaper because they will inject inflation into the economy and thereby reduce affordability for people who purchase homes prudently and fix their rates.</p>
<p>Before you make a comment like you did, you might want to consider educating yourself a bit about the markets.</p>
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		<title>By: Otis Wildflower</title>
		<link>http://njrereport.com/index.php/2007/10/30/october-spcase-shiller-home-price-indicies/#comment-131869</link>
		<dc:creator>Otis Wildflower</dc:creator>
		<pubDate>Wed, 31 Oct 2007 15:46:23 +0000</pubDate>
		<guid isPermaLink="false">http://njrereport.com/index.php/2007/10/30/october-spcase-shiller-home-price-indicies/#comment-131869</guid>
		<description>#186: Might be time to &lt;a href=&quot;http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=ckvDo2JHB7o&quot; rel=&quot;nofollow&quot;&gt;Escape?&lt;/a&gt;</description>
		<content:encoded><![CDATA[<p>#186: Might be time to <a href="http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=ckvDo2JHB7o" rel="nofollow">Escape?</a></p>
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		<title>By: njpatient</title>
		<link>http://njrereport.com/index.php/2007/10/30/october-spcase-shiller-home-price-indicies/#comment-131798</link>
		<dc:creator>njpatient</dc:creator>
		<pubDate>Wed, 31 Oct 2007 05:19:19 +0000</pubDate>
		<guid isPermaLink="false">http://njrereport.com/index.php/2007/10/30/october-spcase-shiller-home-price-indicies/#comment-131798</guid>
		<description>Reinvestor 85
I think that may be the funniest post I&#039;ve ever seen on this blog. My favorite bit: &quot;They need a place to live and have to buy a house at some point.&quot;
We can&#039;t rent anymore? I didn&#039;t get the memo. 
&quot;Homeowners and real estate investors must unite&quot;

Too dang funny.</description>
		<content:encoded><![CDATA[<p>Reinvestor 85<br />
I think that may be the funniest post I&#8217;ve ever seen on this blog. My favorite bit: &#8220;They need a place to live and have to buy a house at some point.&#8221;<br />
We can&#8217;t rent anymore? I didn&#8217;t get the memo.<br />
&#8220;Homeowners and real estate investors must unite&#8221;</p>
<p>Too dang funny.</p>
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		<title>By: zieba</title>
		<link>http://njrereport.com/index.php/2007/10/30/october-spcase-shiller-home-price-indicies/#comment-131795</link>
		<dc:creator>zieba</dc:creator>
		<pubDate>Wed, 31 Oct 2007 03:08:47 +0000</pubDate>
		<guid isPermaLink="false">http://njrereport.com/index.php/2007/10/30/october-spcase-shiller-home-price-indicies/#comment-131795</guid>
		<description>Eight bucks to cross the Hudson?!

Are you F[BLEEEEEEP] kidding me?!

NYC 2012
English is now a second language....
subway fare: $5
Verrazanno bridge crossing: $20
Bridges and tunnels: $15
Starbucks latte: $6
Milk: $9 gal
Gas: $4
quality of life: none


and oh yeah check this out....

&quot;Oops. We&#039;re sorry, we goofed. Please invest with us in the future.&quot;

http://www.marketwatch.com/news/story/tetragon-says-68-mln-mortgage/story.aspx?guid=%7B52BD7F16%2D0415%2D4056%2D9280%2D434CC9F30E3C%7D</description>
		<content:encoded><![CDATA[<p>Eight bucks to cross the Hudson?!</p>
<p>Are you F[BLEEEEEEP] kidding me?!</p>
<p>NYC 2012<br />
English is now a second language&#8230;.<br />
subway fare: $5<br />
Verrazanno bridge crossing: $20<br />
Bridges and tunnels: $15<br />
Starbucks latte: $6<br />
Milk: $9 gal<br />
Gas: $4<br />
quality of life: none</p>
<p>and oh yeah check this out&#8230;.</p>
<p>&#8220;Oops. We&#8217;re sorry, we goofed. Please invest with us in the future.&#8221;</p>
<p><a href="http://www.marketwatch.com/news/story/tetragon-says-68-mln-mortgage/story.aspx?guid=%7B52BD7F16%2D0415%2D4056%2D9280%2D434CC9F30E3C%7D" rel="nofollow">http://www.marketwatch.com/news/story/tetragon-says-68-mln-mortgage/story.aspx?guid=%7B52BD7F16%2D0415%2D4056%2D9280%2D434CC9F30E3C%7D</a></p>
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		<title>By: Clotpoll</title>
		<link>http://njrereport.com/index.php/2007/10/30/october-spcase-shiller-home-price-indicies/#comment-131794</link>
		<dc:creator>Clotpoll</dc:creator>
		<pubDate>Wed, 31 Oct 2007 03:08:14 +0000</pubDate>
		<guid isPermaLink="false">http://njrereport.com/index.php/2007/10/30/october-spcase-shiller-home-price-indicies/#comment-131794</guid>
		<description>Just put a home I started at 449K in July under contract for 355K.

Seller is thrilled, BTW.  Thirty other competitors sit there tonight with no offer at all.</description>
		<content:encoded><![CDATA[<p>Just put a home I started at 449K in July under contract for 355K.</p>
<p>Seller is thrilled, BTW.  Thirty other competitors sit there tonight with no offer at all.</p>
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		<title>By: Fencesittingjack</title>
		<link>http://njrereport.com/index.php/2007/10/30/october-spcase-shiller-home-price-indicies/#comment-131788</link>
		<dc:creator>Fencesittingjack</dc:creator>
		<pubDate>Wed, 31 Oct 2007 01:40:43 +0000</pubDate>
		<guid isPermaLink="false">http://njrereport.com/index.php/2007/10/30/october-spcase-shiller-home-price-indicies/#comment-131788</guid>
		<description>October 30th, 2007 at 9:05 pm 
Bidding wars in Randolph? You’ve got to be kidding me..

Thanks for correcting the misinformation gang on the mb.
It appears from my standpoint that prices are starting the next leg down, the the spring leg is just around the corner. It will be un watching the prices spiral downward.</description>
		<content:encoded><![CDATA[<p>October 30th, 2007 at 9:05 pm<br />
Bidding wars in Randolph? You’ve got to be kidding me..</p>
<p>Thanks for correcting the misinformation gang on the mb.<br />
It appears from my standpoint that prices are starting the next leg down, the the spring leg is just around the corner. It will be un watching the prices spiral downward.</p>
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		<title>By: chicagofinance</title>
		<link>http://njrereport.com/index.php/2007/10/30/october-spcase-shiller-home-price-indicies/#comment-131787</link>
		<dc:creator>chicagofinance</dc:creator>
		<pubDate>Wed, 31 Oct 2007 01:28:42 +0000</pubDate>
		<guid isPermaLink="false">http://njrereport.com/index.php/2007/10/30/october-spcase-shiller-home-price-indicies/#comment-131787</guid>
		<description>just a great headline &quot;A CEO gets &quot;marked to market.&quot;&quot;</description>
		<content:encoded><![CDATA[<p>just a great headline &#8220;A CEO gets &#8220;marked to market.&#8221;"</p>
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		<title>By: BC Bob</title>
		<link>http://njrereport.com/index.php/2007/10/30/october-spcase-shiller-home-price-indicies/#comment-131786</link>
		<dc:creator>BC Bob</dc:creator>
		<pubDate>Wed, 31 Oct 2007 01:13:33 +0000</pubDate>
		<guid isPermaLink="false">http://njrereport.com/index.php/2007/10/30/october-spcase-shiller-home-price-indicies/#comment-131786</guid>
		<description>Tell this dunce to raise his/her price. After all, they are bidding up in Randolph. Why reduce your price?

http://newjersey.craigslist.org/rfs/455767044.html</description>
		<content:encoded><![CDATA[<p>Tell this dunce to raise his/her price. After all, they are bidding up in Randolph. Why reduce your price?</p>
<p><a href="http://newjersey.craigslist.org/rfs/455767044.html" rel="nofollow">http://newjersey.craigslist.org/rfs/455767044.html</a></p>
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		<title>By: grim</title>
		<link>http://njrereport.com/index.php/2007/10/30/october-spcase-shiller-home-price-indicies/#comment-131785</link>
		<dc:creator>grim</dc:creator>
		<pubDate>Wed, 31 Oct 2007 01:05:15 +0000</pubDate>
		<guid isPermaLink="false">http://njrereport.com/index.php/2007/10/30/october-spcase-shiller-home-price-indicies/#comment-131785</guid>
		<description>Bidding wars in Randolph?  You&#039;ve got to be kidding me..

Here are the sales from the last month..

Address	OLP	Sales Price     DOM 
  33 Sandra Ln.	499900	416000  57
  60 HIGH AVE	529000	371000  500?
  245 DOVER CHESTER ROAD	424900	424000  29
  77 Center Grove Road	569000	450000  320?
  61 RIDGEWOOD DR	499999	475000  50
  121 PARK AVE	599000	485000  360?
  8 Beaver Dam Road	549900	510000  360?
  73 LAWRENCE RD	624000	556000  82
  59 Calais Rd.	595000	575000  108
  5 Calais Road	699900	583000  280?
  16 JAY DR	689000	630000  180?
  5 LEWIS HOLLOW RD	928000	903500  40
  14 TROUT BROOK LN	1288000	1040000   87</description>
		<content:encoded><![CDATA[<p>Bidding wars in Randolph?  You&#8217;ve got to be kidding me..</p>
<p>Here are the sales from the last month..</p>
<p>Address	OLP	Sales Price     DOM<br />
  33 Sandra Ln.	499900	416000  57<br />
  60 HIGH AVE	529000	371000  500?<br />
  245 DOVER CHESTER ROAD	424900	424000  29<br />
  77 Center Grove Road	569000	450000  320?<br />
  61 RIDGEWOOD DR	499999	475000  50<br />
  121 PARK AVE	599000	485000  360?<br />
  8 Beaver Dam Road	549900	510000  360?<br />
  73 LAWRENCE RD	624000	556000  82<br />
  59 Calais Rd.	595000	575000  108<br />
  5 Calais Road	699900	583000  280?<br />
  16 JAY DR	689000	630000  180?<br />
  5 LEWIS HOLLOW RD	928000	903500  40<br />
  14 TROUT BROOK LN	1288000	1040000   87</p>
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		<title>By: bi</title>
		<link>http://njrereport.com/index.php/2007/10/30/october-spcase-shiller-home-price-indicies/#comment-131784</link>
		<dc:creator>bi</dc:creator>
		<pubDate>Wed, 31 Oct 2007 00:17:32 +0000</pubDate>
		<guid isPermaLink="false">http://njrereport.com/index.php/2007/10/30/october-spcase-shiller-home-price-indicies/#comment-131784</guid>
		<description>They should come to read this blog.

&quot;Bidding wars seem to be alive and well in Randolph. Everyone talks about the terrible market and how it is a buyers market--but it seems very competitive in Morris county to get houses. Does anyone know if things are really slowing down? The prices in Morris county still seem pretty high.&quot;

&quot;Yes-you are right. It was a house in a very nice open and quiet neighborhood, that had not been upgraded in 50 years. Very mid sixties style kitchen and basement. No central AC. No gas line. 3 beds, 2 baths. All floors needed to be refinished. A very old furnace and oil tank. 11 year old roof. Exterior needed cosmetic work. Needed landscaping. But it was a very spacious feeling house selling for 439. I bid 430, because of all the work that it would take to get it up to date-easily 40 thousand. Houses in the area were for 460--470. I had a cut off amount-kind of sorry I lost it but relieved about doing all that work as I don&#039;t make a high salary.&quot;</description>
		<content:encoded><![CDATA[<p>They should come to read this blog.</p>
<p>&#8220;Bidding wars seem to be alive and well in Randolph. Everyone talks about the terrible market and how it is a buyers market&#8211;but it seems very competitive in Morris county to get houses. Does anyone know if things are really slowing down? The prices in Morris county still seem pretty high.&#8221;</p>
<p>&#8220;Yes-you are right. It was a house in a very nice open and quiet neighborhood, that had not been upgraded in 50 years. Very mid sixties style kitchen and basement. No central AC. No gas line. 3 beds, 2 baths. All floors needed to be refinished. A very old furnace and oil tank. 11 year old roof. Exterior needed cosmetic work. Needed landscaping. But it was a very spacious feeling house selling for 439. I bid 430, because of all the work that it would take to get it up to date-easily 40 thousand. Houses in the area were for 460&#8211;470. I had a cut off amount-kind of sorry I lost it but relieved about doing all that work as I don&#8217;t make a high salary.&#8221;</p>
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		<title>By: Frank</title>
		<link>http://njrereport.com/index.php/2007/10/30/october-spcase-shiller-home-price-indicies/#comment-131783</link>
		<dc:creator>Frank</dc:creator>
		<pubDate>Wed, 31 Oct 2007 00:08:35 +0000</pubDate>
		<guid isPermaLink="false">http://njrereport.com/index.php/2007/10/30/october-spcase-shiller-home-price-indicies/#comment-131783</guid>
		<description>&quot;Steep toll hike possible for NJ-NY crossings&quot;

I would love this, raise them up to $50. How soon can they do it?</description>
		<content:encoded><![CDATA[<p>&#8220;Steep toll hike possible for NJ-NY crossings&#8221;</p>
<p>I would love this, raise them up to $50. How soon can they do it?</p>
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		<title>By: schabadoo</title>
		<link>http://njrereport.com/index.php/2007/10/30/october-spcase-shiller-home-price-indicies/#comment-131780</link>
		<dc:creator>schabadoo</dc:creator>
		<pubDate>Tue, 30 Oct 2007 22:41:16 +0000</pubDate>
		<guid isPermaLink="false">http://njrereport.com/index.php/2007/10/30/october-spcase-shiller-home-price-indicies/#comment-131780</guid>
		<description>&lt;i&gt;I think reinvestor’s post is a spoof.&lt;/i&gt;

Wasn&#039;t it Duck&#039;s first post?</description>
		<content:encoded><![CDATA[<p><i>I think reinvestor’s post is a spoof.</i></p>
<p>Wasn&#8217;t it Duck&#8217;s first post?</p>
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		<title>By: Heart breaker comp breaker</title>
		<link>http://njrereport.com/index.php/2007/10/30/october-spcase-shiller-home-price-indicies/#comment-131779</link>
		<dc:creator>Heart breaker comp breaker</dc:creator>
		<pubDate>Tue, 30 Oct 2007 22:15:23 +0000</pubDate>
		<guid isPermaLink="false">http://njrereport.com/index.php/2007/10/30/october-spcase-shiller-home-price-indicies/#comment-131779</guid>
		<description>grim Says: 
October 30th, 2007 at 11:37 am 
Plenty of cracks in the Upper Haughtyville market..

95 Rivervale Rd - Park Ridge
Purchased: 7/14/2005
Purchase Price: $592,000 

Currently listed at: $545,000 (Reduced from $612,000)
==
now just subtract another 100k and just maybe someone will bid.</description>
		<content:encoded><![CDATA[<p>grim Says:<br />
October 30th, 2007 at 11:37 am<br />
Plenty of cracks in the Upper Haughtyville market..</p>
<p>95 Rivervale Rd &#8211; Park Ridge<br />
Purchased: 7/14/2005<br />
Purchase Price: $592,000 </p>
<p>Currently listed at: $545,000 (Reduced from $612,000)<br />
==<br />
now just subtract another 100k and just maybe someone will bid.</p>
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		<title>By: Heart breaker comp breaker</title>
		<link>http://njrereport.com/index.php/2007/10/30/october-spcase-shiller-home-price-indicies/#comment-131778</link>
		<dc:creator>Heart breaker comp breaker</dc:creator>
		<pubDate>Tue, 30 Oct 2007 22:08:25 +0000</pubDate>
		<guid isPermaLink="false">http://njrereport.com/index.php/2007/10/30/october-spcase-shiller-home-price-indicies/#comment-131778</guid>
		<description>Shiller &quot;People who have to sell would be best served taking whatever they can get before prices drop even further&quot;

Stunning reversal.</description>
		<content:encoded><![CDATA[<p>Shiller &#8220;People who have to sell would be best served taking whatever they can get before prices drop even further&#8221;</p>
<p>Stunning reversal.</p>
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		<title>By: grim</title>
		<link>http://njrereport.com/index.php/2007/10/30/october-spcase-shiller-home-price-indicies/#comment-131777</link>
		<dc:creator>grim</dc:creator>
		<pubDate>Tue, 30 Oct 2007 21:52:54 +0000</pubDate>
		<guid isPermaLink="false">http://njrereport.com/index.php/2007/10/30/october-spcase-shiller-home-price-indicies/#comment-131777</guid>
		<description>From the Star Ledger:

&lt;a href=&quot;http://www.nj.com/news/index.ssf/2007/10/steep_toll_hike_possible_for_n.html&quot; target=&quot;_blank&quot; rel=&quot;nofollow&quot;&gt;Steep toll hike possible for NJ-NY crossings&lt;/a&gt;

The Port Authority plans to seek a toll hike of at least $2 on its Hudson River crossings and an increase in PATH rail fares after next week&#039;s state legislative elections, The Star-Ledger has learned.

Current peak-hour tolls of $6 per vehicle at the George Washington Bridge and Lincoln and Holland tunnels are expected to jump to at least $8 early next year - the first hikes since 2000, according to officials who spoke on the condition of anonymity because of the sensitive nature of the subject.

While a toll and fare hike proposal likely will be presented at the Port Authority&#039;s Nov. 15 board meeting, the agency&#039;s leadership has not yet settled on the exact amount of the increases, the officials said.

They explained there are some within the agency who would like a $3 increase, while others want to limit the hike to $2 on the Hudson River crossings and the Staten Island bridges - the Outerbridge Crossing and the Goethels and Bayonne bridges. Tolls are charged only one way.

There also is talk of eliminating the $1 E-ZPass discount for drivers. 

No decision has been reached on a PATH increase, though a 25- to 50-cent jump on the current $1.50 fare is being discussed, they said.</description>
		<content:encoded><![CDATA[<p>From the Star Ledger:</p>
<p><a href="http://www.nj.com/news/index.ssf/2007/10/steep_toll_hike_possible_for_n.html" target="_blank" rel="nofollow">Steep toll hike possible for NJ-NY crossings</a></p>
<p>The Port Authority plans to seek a toll hike of at least $2 on its Hudson River crossings and an increase in PATH rail fares after next week&#8217;s state legislative elections, The Star-Ledger has learned.</p>
<p>Current peak-hour tolls of $6 per vehicle at the George Washington Bridge and Lincoln and Holland tunnels are expected to jump to at least $8 early next year &#8211; the first hikes since 2000, according to officials who spoke on the condition of anonymity because of the sensitive nature of the subject.</p>
<p>While a toll and fare hike proposal likely will be presented at the Port Authority&#8217;s Nov. 15 board meeting, the agency&#8217;s leadership has not yet settled on the exact amount of the increases, the officials said.</p>
<p>They explained there are some within the agency who would like a $3 increase, while others want to limit the hike to $2 on the Hudson River crossings and the Staten Island bridges &#8211; the Outerbridge Crossing and the Goethels and Bayonne bridges. Tolls are charged only one way.</p>
<p>There also is talk of eliminating the $1 E-ZPass discount for drivers. </p>
<p>No decision has been reached on a PATH increase, though a 25- to 50-cent jump on the current $1.50 fare is being discussed, they said.</p>
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