This is the time and place to post observations about your local areas, comments on news stories or the New Jersey housing market, open house reports, etc. If you have any questions you wanted to ask earlier in the week but never posted them up, let’s have them. Also a good place to post suggestions, requests for information, criticism, and praise.
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From Reuters:
S&P says State St-managed CDO liquidating assets
A collateralised debt obligation (CDO) managed by State Street Global Advisors has started selling assets, ratings agency Standard & Poor’s said late on Thursday, raising worries that a wider array of structured securities may do the same.
S&P said it slashed its ratings on Carina CDO Ltd’s top tranche of securities by 12 notches to the junk level of BB from the top-notch triple-A. S&P also chopped its ratings on the subordinate levels of the CDO, one all the way to CCC-minus.
The trustee of the Carina CDO has started selling the asset-backed securities making up the CDO at the direction of the structure’s noteholders, S&P said.
“We believe the liquidation process has begun,” S&P said in its press release.
From the WSJ:
Get Set for Wave of Debt Downgrades
With Investors Frazzled, Real-Estate Softening,
Three Rating Firms Have Their Markers Out
By AARON LUCCHETTI and SERENA NG
November 9, 2007; Page C1
The credit-rating downgrade deluge that’s been rocking financial markets isn’t over.
In the next few weeks, debt-rating services like Moody’s Investors Service, Standard & Poor’s and Fitch Ratings look poised to downgrade hundreds of mortgage-related investments worth tens of billions of dollars, creating the potential for more market unrest.
The three major rating firms — owned respectively by Moody’s Corp., McGraw-Hill Cos. and Fimalac SA of Paris — have been maligned by critics for originally underestimating the danger of bonds backed by subprime mortgages and other investments tied to mortgages.
Now they’re moving in the other direction, aggressively reassessing where they stand on a wide assortment of debt. Behind the about-face: a worsening real-estate backdrop and frazzled investors.
110 Graphic Blvd, Bergenfield
Purchased: 3/3/2006
Purchase Price: $735,000
Sold: 11/8/2007
Sale Price: $655,000
43 Walnut Ave, Bogota
Purchased: 2/20/2005
Purchase Price: $423,000
Currently active, listed at $369,900
881 Lincoln Ave, Maywood
Purchased: 12/27/2005
Purchase Price: $409,900
Currently active, listed at $399,900
Some good laugh on Subprime 101
The links did not come right,
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=axAjb6fDsPY
See this one first, the other one is for Part 2
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=SJ_qK4g6ntM
Has anyone seen a large rent increase this year? The owner of my building in Hoboken wants to raise our rent 20% for the next year. No way I will pay that. I know plenty of people are renting while waiting to buy. It seems, though, that if there are houses sitting on the market, I should be able to find a reasonably priced rental. As much as I like Hoboken, it is time to leave. Does anyone have suggestions on where to rent while I wait for housing prices to drop or until I find my next job out of state?
From Bloomberg:
Wachovia to Raise Allowance for Loan Losses in Fourth Quarter
Wachovia Corp., the fourth-largest U.S. bank, said it expects to increase its allocation for loan losses to as much as $600 million in the fourth quarter.
“Wachovia now expects to record a loan loss provision in the fourth quarter of 2007 by an amount estimated to be between $500 million and $600 million in excess of charge-offs for the quarter,” Charlotte, North Carolina-based Wachovia said in a filing with U.S. regulators dated yesterday. The company cited “anticipated loan growth and the impact of continuing credit deterioration in our loan portfolio.”
SG,
Enjoyed that clip with a proper cup of tea.
Consumer confidence hits 2-year low
http://news.yahoo.com/s/ap/20071109/ap_on_bi_ge/consumer_confidence
The RBC Cash Index showed consumer confidence fell to a reading of 64 this month, down sharply from an early October reading of 80.6, when consumer sentiment was on the upswing as the stock market stabilized temporarily following a turbulent August.
I’ve been reading about FAS 157 vs level 3 assets. Sounds like a disaster waiting to happen.
So why hasn’t this gotten much press? Is it not the issue it’s being touted to be? Or is it just too wonkish for general consumption?
consumer confidence 17 year graph.
http://www.briefing.com/Investor/Public/Calendars/EconomicReleases/mich.htm
#3: Who is buying six hundred thousand dollar houses in Bergenfield…not only is Bergenfield insane with property taxes, but the schools are horrible and the town overall was bad 20 years ago, even worse 10 years ago and even worse than that in current times.
Hi, I saw this article and would like to get your take on it. It’s an arguement about the devaluation of the dollar between Paul and Bernanke
http://www.abcnews.go.com/Politics/Vote2008/Story?id=3839318&page=2
Part of his statment against Bernanke:
“It is that not only have we had a subprime market in housing; the whole economic system is sub prime,” Paul railed. “We artificially lower interest rates. And it wasn’t under your tenure in office; it’s been going on for 10 years and longer and now we’re bearing the fruits of that policy.”
From MarketWatch:
Wachovia sees up to $600 mln provision, $1.1 bln CDO hit
Wachovia Corp. said in a filing to the Securities and Exchange Commission that it’s anticipating loan losses between $500 million and $600 million in the fourth quarter, citing anticipated loan growth and the impact of continuing credit deterioration in its loan portfolio. Due to the October market deterioration, its asset-backed CDOs experienced further declines in value in the month of October 2007 by an amount it currently estimates to be approximately $1.1 billion pre-tax. Third quarter 2007 market disruption-related losses totaling $1.3 billion pre-tax included $347 million of subprime-related valuation losses, net of hedges, on ABS CDOs.
Pebbles,
Did you watch the q&a session after the testimony?
http://youtube.com/watch?v=yAwvlDJgJbM
BLB..lots of boring accountants have meekly whispered FAS from rooftops, but it’s likely not to filter through until teachers unions and public servants smell rotten eggs in their pensions.
I couldn’t believe how the Johns nailed it at the end of the video.
The funny folks usually know the score.
Flip gone flop in Linden.
800 Meacham Ave, New construction
Listed: 07/20/06
OLP/LP: $464,900
DOM: 184
Expired
Deutsche Bank foreclosed and purchased the property on 1/30/2007.
Sold: 11/08/07
Sale Price: $390,000
The best just got better.. S&P Case Shiller introduces tiered price indicies..
http://www2.standardandpoors.com/spf/pdf/index/110807_cshome-pairs.pdf
No grim, I hadn’t watched that. Thank you. Bernanke didn’t have much to say in response, I think the title said it all heh. I was going through the comments and saw this interview
http://youtube.com/watch?v=URgXOJm1P6w
Personally, I know very little about currency exchanges or concepts to improve the value of our dollar. Has there been much discussion anywhere about allowing competing currencies so we can opt out of the paper dollar? Or any ideas for that matter to prevent the continual value decline?
guys. fed has already wrapped up its holiday gift for you: fed fund rate futures points to 95% rate cut in december. stock is tumbling, commodity bubble is bursting, dollar is worthing less and where do you put your money to?
“where do you put your money to?”
[22],
How do you get Flutie’s #??
Where to put $ ? I can tell you one thing, there is certainly not a check being written to bi’s hedge fund. Unless, of course, you promise to walk the other way, Rene.
Well bi, Charlie Rangel says I’m going to put my money in the Federal Treasury.
#14 tbw And so is Bogota.
23#, seriously, i like pharmas, utilities and reits. these stocks traditionally pay high dividends, which is good in falling interest rate environment. all disclaimers apply.
Any ideas how low will housing pricess fall due to all bad news from Wall street??
BLB: I think it’s too arcane to be of interest to the general public – I agree with Pat.
Did anyone seen Howard Luttnick on CNBC yesterday (I know, I know, don’t yell at me.) He says he’s hiring five people a week to review the toxic sludge, price it and find buyers for it. Thoughts anyone?
Grim,
Do you sell listings outside of BC?
JB,
Your pharma should pop today. Merck settled their Vioxx lawsuits. The markets love certainty.
28, that Howard Luttnick is Cantor Fitzgerald’s? i guess some hedge funds are going to make huge money.
Breaking down citi’s $20B loss, my guess is $4B (20%) went to hedge funds, which trades with traditional ibanks, and 80% went to consumers who locked into low fixed rates or are bailed out
Even better, after 12/11 when we get our next 25bp even the people on the sidelines, (widows and orphans) who have it in CDs and Money Markets are going to get a very hard spanking. Everytime a CD rolls in 2008 it will be a shock. Those 5.25% ING one year CDs are a thing of the past. I can already see the mutual fund guy who sits in the savings bank and the damm annuity salesmen getting the old folks into risker things chasing yield. If that is the case 2009 will be even worse for those folks.
SS increase super low, travel is impossible due to declining dollar, taxes up and $4 a gallon fuel will have our school districts jacking taxes to feed their old boilers.
But hey those old folks can get a $999 50 inch Plazma TV, a $100 dollar treo and a nice new top of the line Chrysler for 20K, so if you average that out with skyhigh food and energy and a complete lack of dental coverage and having to pay a 1/3 of their medical bills in cash we only have less than 3% inflation for the old folks, boooooyaaaaa
Any ideas how low will housing pricess fall due to all bad news from Wall street??
Zero.
Housing prices will fall because they are fundamentally overvalued and markets are self-correcting. If we had a news blackout starting tomorrow, housing prices would still fall because people can’t afford houses at their current level. I also think housing problems are leading Wall Street down, not the other way around.
How many Japanese housewives decided to skip dinner, right to the sake?
BTW, do you think Citi will go 5 for 5 this week in declining stock price or is today a dead cat bounce?
Wamu yield is getting sky high but man I ain’t sticking my toe in the water yet, Cuomo has a hard-on real bad when he thinks about nailing them to the wall and moving from AG to gov or president like Spitzer. You can never put an entire industry out of business but you can pick one company make them the scape goat and crucify them and that will get everyone else some religion.
SM,
I don’t “sell listings”, I represent buyers. I cover most of Northern NJ, but tend to focus on Bergen, Essex, Morris, and Passaic counties.
what now #27,
If you’re talking about a 20 to 25 mile radius around NYC in some of the more desirable area’s with better schools, then not much. If you’re talking about some of the borderline towns in southern Bergen/Passaic, then you can you can low ball the h*ll out of the capes and split levels as you have your pick. It depends on where and what you’re looking for.
How many Japanese housewives decided to skip dinner, right to the sake?
BOBob, I was pondering that over whisky last night.
Sorry, BCBob…..
HI all, Can somebody get an address on
MLS ID# 2457804
MLS ID# 807646
Thanks in Advance!!!
2457804 – 206 Fourth St
Don’t have access to the system the other listing is on.
#37 garY: Patience Gary, it is coming, Oh Ye who do not believe!!!!
Thanks!! I believe second address will be something like 204 or 208 4th street :)
From Bloomberg:
Fannie Mae Profit Falls as Mortgage Defaults Fuel Credit Losses
Fannie Mae, the biggest source of money for U.S. home loans, said profit in the first nine months of the year fell 57 percent as mortgage defaults fueled an increase in credit losses.
The company had been behind on its financial reporting because of an accounting overhaul. Net income for the first three quarters of 2007 dropped to $1.5 billion, or $1.17 a share, from $3.5 billion, or $3.16, a year earlier, the government-chartered company said in a Securities and Exchange Commission filing today.
The filing, which brings the company up-to-date on its earnings reports, shows Fannie Mae hasn’t been immune to the worst U.S. housing slump in 16 years. The company is grappling with the same loan delinquencies and foreclosures that led to losses at Citigroup Inc., &cls;Washington Mutual Inc.&cle; and &cls;Countrywide Financial Corp.&cle;, and it was recently subpoenaed by New York Attorney General Andrew Cuomo in an investigation into fraudulent home appraisals.
“Fannie Mae is becoming another poster child for the problem you see with Countrywide Financial, Washington Mutual and any of the firms with a good chunk of mortgage business,” said Michael Mullaney, who manages $10 billion at Fiduciary Trust Co. in Boston. “You just don’t know anymore where you’re going to get a negative surprise that comes out of the woodwork.”
#33 thank you!!!
#36
thanks.
-44 – Grim – Also in their report $42.4Bil in securities backed by sub-primes.
From Reuters:
Fannie Mae 3rd-quarter loss widens to $1.52 bln
Could someone check the status of
MLS# 2452276 in Hunterdon?
It dropped off the site yesterday.
Thanks,
barbara’s got more money than every member of this blog combined so whom should i believe?
http://www.nydailynews.com/services/realestate/2007/11/08/2007-11-08_ask_barbara.html
From the Star Ledger:
Hovnanian can’t shake slump
When Red Bank-based home builder Hovnanian slashed its prices by as much as $100,000 during its three-day “Deal of the Century” fire sale last month, customers packed the company’s sales centers and kicked home sales into overdrive.
More than 2,100 contracts were signed in 72 hours — a flood of activity that convinced company executives the end of the housing bust was near.
Well, perhaps Hovnanian jumped the gun a bit.
Yesterday, the largest home builder in New Jersey and the sixth-largest in the nation reported a 10 percent drop in quarterly new-home orders and said sales significantly deteriorated in October.
Faced with a glut of unsold homes and canceled contracts, some analysts now predict Hovnanian may have to resort to yet another round of Crazy Eddie-type price cuts to clear its large inventory of houses.
“Sales likely fizzled after Hovnanian attempted to pull away incentives from its ‘Deal of the Century’ promotions the weekend of Sept. 14-16,” said Bank of America analyst Daniel Oppenheim in a research note.
LMAO, thanks Corcoran:
Q. I’ve been happily renting my little studio apartment in NoHo for the past five years, but my rent goes up each year, and sometimes it’s quite a steep increase. I’d like to buy a place so the money I pay every month goes toward building something for my future, but the housing market worries me.
A. Listen, sweetie, don’t worry about the market. New York real estate will always go up. You’ve been building someone else’s equity for five long years, and it’s about time you start paying into your own. Buy now.
#50 Richard
Definitely believe the sales person who wants you to spend money. Not just in Real Estate, but everywhere. Go to a car dealership today, if the car salesman says “buy a car”, then buy one! Enjoy your new ride!
Richard,
I can’t recall ever reading a syndicated realtor summing up that now is NOT a good time to buy.
Unless of course your thinking of paving your front yard to park your car. I have no comment there.
Rich
[50],
First a tv show, now a saleswoman. What’s next, 2 Wall Streeters looking to buy in W-Field?
3b #42,
Actually, it’s already arrived. There are tons of homes with slashed prices in towns like Elmwood Park, Saddle Brook, Clifton, Totowa, etc. Travel 5 – 10 miles north and west of these towns and it’s a different story.
Re paving the front lawn to park your car, I’ve seen that in Middlesex Borough recently. An old cape was destroyed, the lot was divided into two and a duplex went up on each. They’re rentals now. Anyway, each essentially has a parking lot in front instead of the usual lawn and driveway. Each unit has anywhere from 5-6 cars parked at any time. It’s pretty ugly.
Does anyone know if Butler is a good town to buy in? Was looking at new townhouses they are building there.
barbara’s got more money than every member of this blog combined so whom should i believe?
Believe Barbara!
By the way, your comparison is flawed:
There have been more than 200,000 unique visitors since January 1st, 2007.
If we take a shot in the dark and claim that the median net worth of the readership is $100,000 (likely a very low estimate), we come up with an aggregate net worth of $20,000,000,000 ($20b).
barbara’s got more money than every member of this blog combined so whom should i believe?
You should spend the weekend gambling at the Borgata. That place is beautiful! They must be loaded with money. So, if they are encouraging you to gamble in their casino, they obviously know what they are talking about. After all, they must be smart because they have lots of money.
She didn’t get all that money by not selling homes.
I have one question:
Why isn’t Ron Paul leading in polls? Is America brainwashed or just plain old ignorant?
Since we have become so dependant on big gov’t to take care of us are we convinced that we have to trust them as well.
grim, now if only each of them would give me a dollar, I’d have my downpayment.
make money #61,
Ron Paul is crazy.
61#, Ron Paul cannot be president unless he has his face lifted by his buddy pacticing surgery. John Kelly did 4 years ago but it didn’t do well so he did not become the president.
Believe Barbara ?!
I dont care how much money she has or does not have. She lost all credibility when she stated ‘NY real estate will always go up’. You must distinguish between OPINIONS and HISTORICAL FACTS.
#56 gary: and it’s a different story. For now perhaps, but the declines are coming to those “premier” towns as well.
If we take a shot in the dark and claim that the median net worth of the readership is $100,000 (likely a very low estimate)
Whose net worth is 100k? Sure not mine or anyone I know.
Those KHOV numbers for the quarter are very interesting. 2781 total contracts, 2100 from their “Sale of the Century” (3 days) leaving 681 for the rest of the quarter. Is it really that slow out there?
syncmaster Says:
November 9th, 2007 at 10:03 am
make money #61,
Ron Paul is crazy.
Why do you say that?
in august i was told by an expert on this blog that there will be huge inventory increase after 9/1 re-set. i didn’t see that. now it is postponed to spring 2008.
http://www.stockmania.com/index.php?showimage=89
Nice cartoon that shows Ron Paul spankage on Ben Bernanke complements of implode lender.
It would be interesting after Nov14th or so when the new accounting rule kicks in. Companies will forced to include mark to market level3 assets on their balance sheets. That’s when we will see who is swimming naked.
http://www.nysun.com/article/66066
As sign that all is not well in NYC’s invincible RE market?
Bi #64, are you chinese?
Is Homer saying that is too little or too much?
I would guess, adding up 401Ks, IRAs, 529s, cars, home equity, stock, bonds,cash and commodities the average would be around one million, give a take a few hundred thousand.
Homer Says:
November 9th, 2007 at 10:17 am
If we take a shot in the dark and claim that the median net worth of the readership is $100,000 (likely a very low estimate)
Whose net worth is 100k? Sure not mine or anyone I know.
I know most dont wish to hear about items outside the state of NJ but one can actually be surprised by how some states arent so corrupt. One can appreciate some good news in a sea of pollution.
In SC my buddies property taxes have dropped to nearly Half of what they were because the lottery is bringing in money for education. Unlike NJ thier lottery money goes toward the public schools not the administration at universities. To give you an Idea his 3000sq ft house on a half acre which is 3 years old will have taxes under $700.00 this coming year. He lives 15-20 minutes outside downtown Charlotte.
SC is also reducing taxes on grocery items. They also have the lowest tax on gas being some 30 cents cheaper in places than across the border in NC.
Kudos to hearing about a state that has its act together. Makes you think Hillbillys know how to do the right thing.
Hopewell Township
Last Purchased
5 Roosevelt Ave Oct 04 $1,049,000
Listed in REO owned by Countrywide
Listing price: $920,900
Even at Listing price over 100K in losses.
But shows it’s not just Low income (~~subprime) folks. This is happening to high income group as well. In fact the prices are below 04 level.
I was thinking the same thing, John Kelly….
Believe Barbara!
JB [59],
That B-Box is churning today!
Average 1 million? Oh man, I am seriously behind!
“John Kelly did 4 years ago”
bi [64],
It’s hard for me to believe that John had this done, just one year before he passed away. God Bless him.
http://www.boston.com/sports/specials/obituaries/kelley/
Ron Paul is perhap the smartest guy at Captial Hill but that does not transfer him be president. in this multimedia age, you need be a little sexy in front of camera to be president. i am speaking inconvenient truth here. Kelly knows that and he tried but failed.
#76 Mitchell
Glad to see you are back! NOT
Stop peddling NC real estate. Most if not all people on this board do not care about that market.
Actually since the majority of lottery purchasers are low income minorities and the majority of people in college are from middle to upper middle class home owning non minorities I guess your lotto scam to pay for college and lower taxes on mcmansions is in homage to your southern history of cheating the black community.
It is impossible to take money from one group (lotto purchases) and give it to another group and call it less taxes. You are esentially putting an extra tax on the lotto people and lowering the tax on the rich. NC should spend all lotto money profits on improving the schools, healthcare and neighborhoods of the people who bought the tickets, your rob peter to pay paul is not very nice.
In SC my buddies property taxes have dropped to nearly Half of what they were because the lottery is bringing in money for education. Unlike NJ thier lottery money goes toward the public schools not the administration at universities. To give you an Idea his 3000sq ft house on a half acre which is 3 years old will have taxes under $700.00 this coming year. He lives 15-20 minutes outside downtown Charlotte.
Mahwah
SLD 11 RAE AVE $825,000 9/30/2005
SLD 11 RAE AVE $795,000 11/6/2007
John #84,
The problem with your response is that lotto tickets are freely available for all residents to buy.
#83 Dissapointed its the only market still going up instead of in the toilet?
“In SC my buddies property taxes have dropped to nearly Half of what they were because the lottery is bringing in money for education.”
SC’s public schools suck.
A Real Estate Speculator Goes From Boom to Bust
http://www.nytimes.com/2007/11/09/us/09speculate.html
From Bloomberg:
U.S. November Consumer Sentiment Index Falls to 75
Confidence among U.S. consumers fell in November to the lowest in two years as rising fuel costs and falling home prices left Americans with less cash to spend, a private survey showed.
The Reuters/University of Michigan preliminary sentiment index fell to 75 from 80.9 at the end of October. It was the second-lowest reading since President George W. Bush’s father was in the White House, just above the post-Hurricane Katrina figure of 74.2 on October 2005. The index reached 73.3 in October 1992.
The report heightens concern that consumer spending, which accounts for more than two-thirds of the economy, may weaken more than forecast going into the holiday shopping season. Federal Reserve Chairman Ben S. Bernanke yesterday said the economy may “slow noticeably” in the current quarter.
“It really does presage a pullback in consumer spending in the fourth quarter,” said Chris Rupkey, senior financial economist at Bank of Tokyo-Mitsubishi UFJ Ltd. in New York, which had the third lowest forecast at 77.8. “The housing- market recession and financial-market turbulence are starting to hit the consumer with full force.”
Economists forecast the Michigan index would decline to 80, according to the median estimate of 67 economists in a Bloomberg News survey. Estimates ranged from 77 to 83.
bi Says:
November 9th, 2007 at 10:23 am
in august i was told by an expert on this blog that there will be huge inventory increase after 9/1 re-set. i didn’t see that. now it is postponed to spring 2008.
I was told by Bi many times that oil will be 40$!!!
Italict Off
in august i was told by an expert on this blog that there will be huge inventory increase after 9/1 re-set. i didn’t see that. now it is postponed to spring 2008.
Take a look at this chart and tell me inventory isn’t a problem.
https://njrereport.com/images/oct07_salesinv.gif
Also, GSMLS is currently listing 35,469 homes for sale. This is near record levels, at a time of year when listings typically fall off a cliff. It’s difficult to say how many houses stayed on the market and how many came off and were replaced by new listings from distressed sellers.
From the WSJ:
Idea of Jumbo-Loan Guarantee Is Floated
By DAMIAN PALETTA
November 9, 2007; Page A2
WASHINGTON — Federal Reserve Chairman Ben Bernanke yesterday floated a new idea to fix the troubled market for mortgages too large for Fannie Mae and Freddie Mac to buy: Allow the companies to securitize jumbo-size mortgages but have the federal government guarantee them.
Fannie and Freddie currently can buy mortgages only up to $417,000, and Congress — so far — hasn’t acted to lift that limit despite distress in that market that has made jumbo mortgages at “somewhat tighter terms and higher prices,” as Mr. Bernanke put it.
As an alternative to lifting that $417,000 cap, Mr. Bernanke offered a surprise answer to questions on Capitol Hill. He suggested that Congress could consider allowing the companies, known as “government sponsored enterprises,” buy mortgages of as much as $1 million from lenders, pay the government a fee for guaranteeing them and then turn them into securities to be sold to investors.
snip
Sen. Charles Schumer (D., N.Y.), chairman of the Joint Economic Committee, where Mr. Bernanke was testifying, said he would consider introducing a bill very soon to accomplish Mr. Bernanke’s suggestion. “I think that’s a very good idea,” Sen. Schumer said.
Rep. Carolyn Maloney (D., N.Y.), who chairs the relevant subcommittee in the House, endorsed the plan. She said Mr. Bernanke’s idea could be added to a broader legislative effort to overhaul oversight of the companies.
The House of Representatives has already passed such a measure but it has had little traction in the Senate.
http://online.wsj.com/article_print/SB119455499562686966.html
The lottery is a tax for those who do not understand math.
“recession-risk denial” – WOW
My 401K has been in bonds since August.
Reuters reports that Lehman Brothers’ (LEH 55.27, -0.84) Chief Global Bond Strategist sees the “deepest correction” ever in structured finance and the current market is in “recession-risk denial”. The Chief Bond Strategist also expressed the opinion that the U.S. credit crisis is now worse than the one caused by Long-Term Capital Management.
Long-Term Capital Management was a hedge fund that had massive losses in 1998. It is said to have nearly brought down the financial system due to its extreme leveraging. DJ30 -169.08 NASDAQ -59.27 SP500 -18.17 NASDAQ Dec/Adv/Vol 1994/708/765 mln NYSE Dec/Adv/Vol 2498/562/372 mln
#84 John – No one MAKES people buy lottery tickets. While I agree with you that it ends up being a tax on people who don’t understand probability, the buyers of the tickets freely choose to make the purchase. Just like the people who took out I/O ARM’s freely chose to do so. The government cannot and should not save everyone from their own folly.
(OMG Google down 3% – the world is ending!)
“The lottery is a tax for those who do not understand math.”
[95],
Great description.
Mitchell-
bi is all the entertainment we need here.
Brazil Discovers Large Oil Reserve In Deep Waters of Atlantic
By MATT MOFFETT and BERND RADOWITZ
November 9, 2007; Page A12
Brazil’s state-run oil company said it found a large reserve of oil deep in the Atlantic Ocean…
…
Tests at the Tupi field about 180 miles off the coast of Rio de Janeiro indicate a recoverable volume of five billion to eight billion barrels of crude-oil equivalent, according to state-run Petróleo Brasileiro SA.
…
The Tupi field, under more than 1.25 miles of water and another 2.5 miles of rock, is a “truly remarkable” discovery, said Andrew Latham, vice president of exploration for Edinburgh, Scotland, oil consultant Wood Mackenzie.
The discovery, while welcome news in a world where big oil strikes are rare, won’t likely affect oil prices, mostly because the field will take years to develop. Even if Tupi contains the high estimate of eight billion barrels, the world consumes about 86 million barrels a day, so it may contain about three months of supply.
I only buy 1 ticket for multiple weeks. I figure the odds are better on someone with a ticket than without. While the odds are next to impossible of actually winning its no worse than anyone elses ticket even those who spend hundreds per week arent any closer than my dollar. Its not enough to change my portfolio even if I look at it for 20 years but I will retire before then. $104.00 a year. WooHoo.
Is anyone on the board actually considering buying any properties over the next year?
Might be a good time to buy someones auctioned off boat because they couldnt keep up with mortgage payments. I just cant imagine talking about anything other than flippers flopping for the next year or two before the bottom hits.
99#, if you like money, which i believe so, you should seriously look at my calls today: pharma is up 1% despite of dow down over 1% (i know it is because of merck. but tomorrow will be something from pfe or jnj). oil stocks are down with the market despite of crude up half percent.
Richard Says:
November 9th, 2007 at 9:44 am
barbara’s got more money than every member of this blog combined so whom should i believe?
You better believe her and turn to her to catch up on lost appreciation, considering your RSF recco has only halved since you mentioned it.
Bi, any tips for Reech?
The odds of guessing another persons social security number are greater than your odds of winning the multi-state lottery. I’ll keep my dollar and not venture a guess. You, on the other hand choose to spend your dollar for one guess.
But my odds of having $104 more than you in my wallet come year’s end are significantly better than your odds of winning anything whatsoever.
By the way, statistically speaking. Until the jackpots reach $280 million, your dollar bet does not even have a dollar for dollar risk reward ratio. Once the jackpot surpasses $280 million, then it is an even money or better bet. Unfortunately, odds say that you don’t have a $280 million bankroll to ensure a fair shot of winning it and an even larger bankroll is necessary to overcome the variance.
Keep on playing though…you are improving the schools at a rate where probably less than a dime per dollar goes to the schools.
NEWS FROM REUTERS
Wachovia Warns of $1.1 Billion of Credit Losses
State Street-Managed CDO May Be Liquidating Assets – S&P
Capital One’s Oct. Charge-Offs, Delinquencies Rise
Wall Street’s Esoteric Assets May Be Trouble
Some Investors See Bank, Insurer Default – Lehman
Wall Sreet’s Subprime CDO Write-Downs Seen $64 Billion – Citi
Fortis Third-Quarter Falls 10 Pct, Keeps 2007 Outlook
BNP Paribas Third-Quarter Profit Rises, Cautious on Outlook
Global Watchdog Sets Up Task Force on Credit Crisis
Morgan Stanley Losses Show Risk Push Downside
Citigroup Gives Ex-CEO Prince $40 Million Package
Merrill Reveals $6.3 Bln More in Subprime – CDO Exposure
Visa, American Express in $2.1 Bln Settlement
N.Y. Subpoenas Fannie, Freddie in Mortgage Probe
Washington Mutual Sees Loan Losses; Shares Tumble
U.S. Finance Group Urges Risk-Based Approach to Regs
Greenspan, King See More Pain for Banks, U.S.
Citigroup Names Stuckey to Run Subprime Portfolio
Countrywide, Bank Outlooks Now Negative – Fitch
IndyMac Mortgage Loss Dwarfs Its Own Forecast
Citi Cuts Third-Quarter Profit, Shrs Fall as CEO Quits
Subprime Crisis Affects Banks Worldwide
Robert Rubin Steps Up in Bid to Repair Citigroup
Merrill Offers CEO Job to BlackRock’s Fink – CNBC
Scribe 94 This a great idea gov will back even larger loans in this market.Then sell them to whom, doesn’t matter as tax payer on the hook.We fund the gov.!Not to worry ben can print more money to cover the losses.We pay for that to as are money is worth crap.
Do these guys have a clue.
Anything Chuck Schumer is for, nitwit from ny is not the way to go.
bi,
I must have missed the post yesterday where you shared insider information regarding MRK with us.
Me too Grim.
Sounds like bi is trying to chase the herd.
108#, to my credit, i called pharma 3 months ago. by the way, clot can save his vomit drug in cabinet for a while
#102 I am !! why asking??
What haven’t you called?
Ok, since we’re making predictions:
I predict that the DJI will hit 15,000.
I’m not saying when, though. When it does get there, I’ll make sure everybody knows I was right.
“In SC my buddies property taxes have dropped to nearly Half of what they were because the lottery is bringing in money for education.”
Too bad there IQ also fell in half.
Down on Wall Street at the newstand in front of Goldman I only see clerks and poor people buying the tickets. The profits from that help support the SUNY system and the rich kids at SUNY ALbany and SUNY Binghamton parents get a nice tuition cut. The whole lotto thing is a big scam. A legal scam, but a crooked scam. OTB in NY for years actually lost money as so many 100K clerks were milking it. The govt actually took the money at a loss.
The good news is my high property taxes in NY gives me a federal tax write off that sticks it to SC in the Federal Taxes. Mr. SC thanks for paying for my free garabage pick up and great schools and parks!!!
Pharma hasn’t done anything for the past three months. The Vioxx settlement is not what is holding ‘all’ pharma down. It’s the discount pricing for generics that is absolutely slaughtering their former insanely juiced profit margins.
Sync,
I’ll do you one better.
I predict that the DJIA will hit 16,000.
To all Indian commenters on the blog,
Happy Diwali.
For others: Diwali is the biggest Indian Festival. More info at,
http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Diwali
#105 True but its just $104.00 and I go for weeks on end before I even check the numbers. Any time I win which is usually 3-5 bucks I give the ticket to my wife since she never remembers to bring cash with her and stops off at the local convenciece store. Probably comes out to $80.00 loss a year I guess.
One could certainly get a netflix subscription instead and get more out of it.
If I were a poor person I would have more use for that dollar instead of a lottery ticket but that probably explains why Im not poor.
Market should go up now that Indians tak day off.
Disclaimer: I am not actually bi)
#77 SG…there are more where that came from.
3 others in that category in a 5 mile radius are up on the block,or soon to be. Also, the land around that listing you mentioned is up for sale, they did not finish the development. They want $500,000 a shot for just shy of 2 acres. I think there are at least 6 lots for sale, no buyers.
#114 Parks and Garbage removal are not extra.
Easier tha EZ pass is not having toll roads.
We also dont have to recycle. All trash one can. Must be too complicated for southerners. ;)
Think about that the next time you have to pay $8.00 to get on a public beach.
Market for Second Mortgages Disappearing
Thursday November 8, 6:17 pm ET
By Alan Zibel, AP Business Writer
Mortgage Meltdown Chokes Off Second Mortgages for Downpayments by Risky Borrowers, Survey Says
WASHINGTON (AP) — The common practice of homebuyers with shaky credit taking out second mortgages for downpayments is ending because there’s no investor demand for securities backed by such loans.
The availability of second-mortgage financing for subprime borrowers has all but disappeared, according to a trade publication’s survey last month of more than 1,000 mortgage bankers and brokers.
Typically, homebuyers who couldn’t come up with 20 percent of the purchase price for a cash downpayment were required to buy mortgage insurance from companies like PMI Group Inc., Radian Group Inc. and MGIC Investment Corp. to protect lenders from default.
But in 2005 and 2006, at the peak of the housing boom, 22 percent of new mortgages had “piggyback” second loans used for downpayments, according to a recent Federal Reserve analysis of home loan data.
The downside, as many lenders and investors discovered, is that if a borrower defaults, the holder of the second mortgage typically gets nothing, even after a foreclosure sale.
The survey, published by Inside Mortgage Finance, a Bethesda, Md.-based trade publication, found 83 percent of lenders and brokers said there was no market in September for second mortgages made to borrowers with weak credit histories and not enough cash to make home purchase downpayments.
The survey is “one of the most dramatic examples” of how the housing market downturn is affecting the way mortgage industry players behave, said Thomas Popik, the survey’s creator and a principal with Nashua, N.H.-based research firm Geosegment Systems.
For so-called “Alt-A” mortgages that require limited verification of a borrower’s current income, 61 percent of the bankers and brokers said there was no interest in offering a second mortgage.
Part of the deteriorating outlook on defaults is that increasing numbers of borrowers are unable to make higher mortgage payments as their initial low “teaser” loan rates reset. The problem is expected to worsen in 2008.
Federal Reserve Chairman Ben Bernanke told federal lawmakers Thursday that an average of 450,000 subprime mortgages will reset to higher rates each quarter through the end of next year.
Surging default rates have battered institutional investors who were big buyers of mortgages that were pooled to spread credit risk.
Some lenders have decided to exit the market for second-mortgage securities. As of Dec. 31, Citigroup Inc.’s CitiMortgage unit, which buys loans from banks and credit unions, will stop purchasing second mortgage and home equity loans.
Mark Rodgers, a Citi spokesman, said in an e-mail that the decision was “reached as we continue to monitor the market and focus our business on products and programs appropriate for the market.” Citibank still offers home equity loans directly to consumers through its Citibank division.
The survey found second mortgages are still available for borrowers with high credit scores. However, defaults on second mortgages for borrowers with strong credit are also rising.
As of July, the percentage of second-mortgage borrowers with strong credit who were 60 or more days delinquent had more than doubled from a year earlier to 1.3 percent, according to research firm FirstAmerican LoanPerformance.
A Fed survey conducted in early October found that 41 percent of responding banks said they had tightened loan standards either “considerably” or “somewhat” for mortgages offered to borrowers with strong credit histories, up from about 15 percent of banks who reported tighter standards in July.
As for borrowers with weak credit: 40 of 49 banks said they no longer offer subprime mortgages.
30-Year Fixed Mortgage Rates Decline
Thursday November 8, 4:40 pm ET
By Martin Crutsinger, AP Economics Writer
30-Year Fixed Mortgage Rates Fall for Third Straight Week, Hit Lowest Level in Five Months
WASHINGTON (AP) — Rates on 30-year mortgages fell for the third straight week, dropping to the lowest level in five months.
Freddie Mac, the mortgage company, reported Thursday that 30-year, fixed-rate mortgages dipped to 6.24 percent this week, down from 6.26 percent last week.
It was the third straight weekly decline after rates hit 6.40 percent. Analysts attributed the decreases to mounting evidence that the economy is starting to slow.
“Reports of weaker consumer spending in September and a decline in manufacturing activity in October kept mortgages at bay this week,” said Frank Nothaft, chief economist at Freddie Mac.
The Federal Reserve last week cut a key interest rate by a quarter-part, marking the second rate reduction in the past six weeks. Fed officials, however, disappointed investors by signaling that there may not be further rate cuts, given their worries about higher inflation from surging energy prices and a weaker dollar.
Mortgage rates fell across the board this week.
Rates on 15-year fixed-rate mortgages, a popular choice for refinancing, averaged 5.90 percent, down from 5.91 percent last week.
Rates on five-year adjustable rate mortgages averaged 5.89 percent, down from 5.98 percent last week.
Rates on one-year ARMs dropped to 5.50 percent, down from 5.57 percent last week.
The mortgage rates do not include add-on fees known as points. Thirty-year fixed-rate mortgages carried a nationwide average fee of 0.4 point while 15-year mortgages and five-year adjustable-rate mortgages carried an average fee of 0.5 point. The one-year ARM carried an average fee of 0.6 point.
A year ago, 30-year mortgages stood at 6.33 percent, 15-year mortgages were at 6.04 percent, five-year ARMS averaged 6.08 percent and one-year ARMs were at 5.55 percent.
The worst slump in housing in more than two decades worsened in recent months in the face of rising mortgage defaults that triggered a severe credit crunch that has roiled financial markets since August.
Many homeowners are having trouble making higher payments now that their low introductory adjustable-rate mortgages are resetting to higher rates. Fed Chairman Ben Bernanke estimated Thursday in congressional testimony that an average of 450,000 subprime mortgages — loans offered to borrowers with weak credit histories — will reset each quarter through the end of 2008.
just for the record,
Grim, 119# is another bi not the same bi who is very bullish on re.
Is this a stocks investment blog or a real estate blog?
Hey look everybody, another bi!
Please do not impersonate other users.
stuw6, I call that 15,000 will come first.
Subprime Losses Force KKR Financial to Sell Mortgage Business
Friday, November 09, 2007
According to KKR Financial Holdings’ Q3/07 earnings report, the specialty finance unit of Kohlberg Kravis Roberts, is selling its mortgage business as a result of subprime losses. It also closed a series of collateralized loan obligations (CLOs) in the process.
According to the earnings report:
* the company sold $5.2 billion of residential mortgage loans and mortgage-backed securities and recognized a loss of approximately $65 million, which was reduced by gains on the termination of related interest rate hedges of approximately $28.6 million, and thereby recognized a net loss of approximately $36.4 million;
* the company sold $139.6 million of its private equity investments to unaffiliated third parties and recognized a net gain of $51.6 million;
* the company made the decision to dispose of its real estate investment trust subsidiary, KKR Financial Corp., and exit the business of investing in residential mortgage investments. Accordingly, the Company’s residential mortgage investment business and REIT Subsidiary are reported as a discontinued operation for which the Company recorded charges totaling $243.7 million.
KKR Financial lost $265.9 million for the three months to September 30, compared with a $32.6 million profit for the same period in 2006.
I’ve been reading this blog for along time. Thanks all for their insights. Here’s my story.. Guy listed his house FSBO May 2007 $629K. Couldn’t sell it and at the end of summer gave it to realtor and listed it at $635. 2 deals fell through (first buyer couldn’t sell his house, 2nd buyer couldn’t get the jumbo loan). Back on the market again by Owner. We offered him $535k this morning (kitchen and bathrooms are outdated). He outright refused to go a penny lower. Then came around that he can go alittle lower. A couple of houses in the neighborhood currently listed at $560/570 with a realtor and nothing has moved. Guess what…I’m a qualified owner, 20% downpayment…with time on my side. I guess I will wait till spring and see what else comes on. :)))
verypatientwife…
Good strategy………take a nice holiday vacation with the money you will save next spring.
#130 verypatientwife,
Is that house in Haworth?
I’ll take the Dow under 13000 by the end of next week … :*)
This is a home I tried to see in Jan 06, it had expired and the listing agent did not get back to me and I was just pretty much done with the idea of buying.
MLS#: 2096631 11 Scranton Parkway. Asking 269,000
Currently MLS#: 2376113 11 Scranton Parkway
( oxford) Asking 159,000 (reo)
KL
http://www.libn.com/breakingNews.htm?articleID=9180
130: verypatientwife…
Good move…qualified buyers are in short supply
in this market. Do you need to sell to buy? If not you can use this as a bargining tool. You never mentioned what the current FSBO price is. An offer of $535,000 on a $630,000 house is a big haircut. Hold your line and wait for a counter offer. If your seller is in any hurry he must come down buy at least 10%.
Good luck.
grim Says:
November 9th, 2007 at 6:05 am
110 Graphic Blvd, Bergenfield
Purchased: 3/3/2006
Purchase Price: $735,000
Sold: 11/8/2007
Sale Price: $655,000
————————————————
**Blank Stare** at someone paying $655k-$735k to live in Bergenfield . . .
What on Earth were they thinking?
Lumber Liquidators falls 10 pct in market debut
58 1sttimebuyer
#
Does anyone know if Butler is a good town to buy in? Was looking at new townhouses they are building there.
The ones on Main Street near the Subway and Rita’s?
I live near there and like it. It is like the last outpost of civilization, however; go five miles north or west and you’re basically in Pa.
#1 grim
that’s not a change in rating, that’s a punishment for selling. What’s S&P’s rationale?
Bizarre.
further, see:
“The ratings cut on the Carina CDO is more severe than would be justified by the deterioration of the underlying assets because a decision to liquidate would depress prices and affect all notes that were issued, S&P said.”
which town in new jersey has best name recognation?
bi #143,
Many people I run into in other states think “New Jersey City” is a city. So even though that’s not an actual city, it has the greatest name recognition.
AC
>>You better believe her and turn to her to catch up on lost appreciation, considering your RSF recco has only halved since you mentioned it.
i got out of that early on for a small loss after all this credit crunch business started spreading across to other sectors. i also had IGD and BGY which i dumped. my winners have outpaced my losers. i’ve added to my positions in Apple, IGNBX and Google. Apple and Google are going into the safe for 20 years.
which town in new jersey has best name recognation?
Buttzville
AC…agreed!
John is right. I live in SC and don’t understand the euphoria over lowered property taxes in exchange for a higher sales tax. Our federal deductions are lower and we’re paying more in taxes on purchases.
The good news is my high property taxes in NY gives me a federal tax write off that sticks it to SC in the Federal Taxes. Mr. SC thanks for paying for my free garabage pick up and great schools and parks!!!
AC? What about Trenton or Asbury Park?
which town in new jersey has best name recognation?
Brigadoon
I’m thinking of the rest of the country. What do they think?
The game Password.
Betty White says, “New Jersey???”
Housewife from Virginia says “Atlantic City!!!”
or maybe frequent flyers would say Newark.
“Richard Says:
November 9th, 2007 at 9:44 am
barbara’s got more money than every member of this blog combined”
I am going to guess that you’re wildly wrong about that. I read the article though – are you sure it’s not a spoof? If I wanted to make fun of ol’ Barb, I’d have written an article just like that one.
“which town in new jersey has best name recognation?”
Well if you are a recent buyer, it has to be; Hope,NJ
Asbury Park!!
A 10% cut in price is peanuts. I see a decent amount 600K homes from spring of 2005 on the market for around the high fours soon to be the low fours. 30% off original pre subprime price is not that. Houses are done for this decade, wait till 2010!!!
Princeton? Or do people across the country even know that the school is in NJ?
Looks like S&P is getting ready to cut another 547 classes of Alt-A Securities. Weee !
“which town in new jersey has best name recognation?”
Grover Mills, duh.
“bi Says:
November 9th, 2007 at 10:07 am
61#, Ron Paul cannot be president unless he has his face lifted by his buddy pacticing surgery. John Kelly did 4 years ago but it didn’t do well so he did not become the president.”
JOHN KELLY?
.. erm make that Grover’s Mills…..
which town in new jersey has best name recognation?
Come on people…Princeton got all sorts of Recognition on Fresh prince of Bel air…Although they never once said Pricneton was in NJ
Post 133 – the house is not in Hawthorne. In Hillsborough.
Post 137 – your right! I forgot to mention, he is asking $585…we offered $535. He’s an original owner. House is 20 years old. And I do not need to sell my house to purchase. thanks for the words of advice.
#85 john
Sing it, brother (and watch out, your heart was showing there for a moment).
“Mitchell Says:
November 9th, 2007 at 11:47 am
I only buy 1 ticket for multiple weeks. I figure the odds are better on someone with a ticket than without. ”
you don’t figure so good.
for the record, verypatientwife is no relation…
Name recognition.
Asbury Park Because the Bruce album.
Atlantic City because of Trump.
Trenton because you should know your capitols.
East Rutherford because of the Jets and Giants.
Thats it. Newark I bet most people outside the state know Newark. Maybe foreigners know it because thats where you go before you move to Edison.
NJ has one of these places and borders (nearly) two more; Newark, Philadelphia, and Baltimore
America’s Most Murderous Cities
http://www.forbes.com/forbeslife/2007/11/08/murder-city-danger-forbeslife-cx_de_1108murder.html
“If I were a poor person I would have more use for that dollar instead of a lottery ticket but that probably explains why Im not poor.”
I’m going to have to think about that one for a bit….
#164. Will tell you after tommorow night. But I bet your right 100 out of the 104 times a year.
The problem is the people who arent feeding and clothing thier kids buying $40.00 worth of tickets twice a week when that money could be used in getting an education at a community college to make something of themeselves. -Run on sentence. :o
#139 – Grim
Sounds similar to something I heard a few years back when the price of gas started its upward move. The CEO of BMW said that its sales are not affected by rising gas prices because their customer base can afford it, resulting in no need to increase efficiency. Ha – now their commercials tout “great gas mileage”.
#122 – Mitchell
Were you actually happy about not recycling in that post? Costs aside, I think in this day in age everyone should be recycling.
#168 if you cant figure that out then you need to buy a lottery ticket.
“which town in new jersey has best name recognation?”
“Mount Olive” , reminds me of my girlfriend Olive I had in High School :}
“Mitchell Says:
November 9th, 2007 at 2:37 pm
#168 if you cant figure that out then you need to buy a lottery ticket.”
I have to buy a lottery ticket because you lack logic?
#173 I could explain it but I fear you still wouldnt understand.
#172 Jim says, “Mount Olive” , reminds me of my girlfriend Olive I had in High School :}
Come on Jim, no one has been named Olive in the last 50 years.
for your info, mitchell, it is my impression that njpatient is a bsd lawyer and he is doing cross examination
The CEO of BMW said that its sales are not affected by rising gas prices because their customer base can afford it, resulting in no need to increase efficiency. Ha – now their commercials tout “great gas mileage”.
It’s probably that their customer base just isn’t as “prestigious” as it used to be. It just seems like these days any house frau can go out and get an EZ-lease on a BMW. Charge the $3,259 due at signing to your credit card and for $359 per month your driving a 328i.
Very true. It’s even more demoralizing when you go to Germany (and other Euro cities) and see that all the taxis are Mercedes!!
#177 Correct. When every 3rd car in the CVS parking lot is a BMW, the cachet is gone.
I wonder what the really wealthy people drive now, a Porsche?
…and the rain starts to fall in Hackensack.
What’s the going rate for a couple full rain barrels down in Georgia anyway? Some shrewd ones down there…
“Atlanta water use is called shortsighted”
“What was not on the table, and what has got to be on the table, is Atlanta’s unrestricted growth and cavalier attitude to water use,””
#170 If they had it here I would do it.
Can anyone with MLS access give info on MLS# 2440321. Thanks
I wonder what the really wealthy people drive now, a Porsche?
Nah, a 1995 Honda Civic hatchback!
Lexus, Infinity, Acura….you know…vehicles that last.
#176 LOL. Will he be asking what cross examination is?
#181
I’m sure. It just surprises me that it’s not offered everywhere at this point.
Stu…nope. ’08 Civic Sedan.
And dream, thanks for the cheerleading about the Honda dealer. You were right.
Can anyone look up a house for me? I’ve been renting in Wood Ridge for about 3 years now. Since the day we moved in the house around the corner has been for sale. I’m not sure of the exact address but it’s on Hackensack St. I know it’s a bit vague but there aren’t many residential homes on that road in WR. I’m just curious how long it’s been up. Thanks
187 Pat
I’m right behind you on that same purchase
#184 I had a lexus and it was a piece of crap it spent more time at the dealer to the point where we forced them to take the car back. We made $400.00 on it but hardly worth the aggrivation. Dont recall the dealership but it was by Monmouth Mall on 35.
#186 It took us a while because you have that guilty feeling throwing bottles and cans in the trash. Not sure why its not here.
SS 178:
Many European taxis are Mercedes for sure, but not the type we see in the US. When has anyone ever seen an E-Class stateside with a 2-liter diesel engine, a manual transmission and crank windows?
bi (111)-
“108#, to my credit, i called pharma 3 months ago. by the way, clot can save his vomit drug in cabinet for a while.”
I could…except, you keep triggering my gag reflex.
Mitch (122)-
“Think about that the next time you have to pay $8.00 to get on a public beach.”
Much rather pay eight bucks to go to the beach than be stuck living in a place where tractor pulls are considered sports.
#187, Pat
Am glad all is being resolved with your 08. I hear the loaded 08 now has leather as an option too. Honda is good with their customers after the initial sale, and that’s why they have such a huge number of repeat customers, which the Big 3 lack.
Here’s an example – Honda picked up 50% of the tab on new brake rotors and pads on my CRV at 36,000 miles even though its normal wear and tear and warranty finishes at 12,000 miles. Why? Because they knew I should not have warped rotors in 2 years. They didn’t have to be considerate, but they were.
Speaking of European Mercedes, my favorite car over there is the A-Series hatch. Engine choices are a 1.5l i4 or a 2.0l turbo i4.
I think it would sell very well in the US.
Can someone tell me the address of this property in south bound brook – 2454508 ? That’s from GSMLS.COM.
Thanks!
rent (147)-
Agreed. Buttzville also boasts the world-famous Hot Dog Johnny’s.
In case anyone’s interested in what Bob Toll had to say y’day:
“Massachusetts, Rhode Island is an F. Connecticut is a B, which is strange, except that most of Connecticut that we build in funnels down into the New York and suburb and New York market.
That’s probably the reason. New York suburbs, these are really excerpts. Putnam and Dutches are C-plus. Our city living division in New York City is a B. Our city living in New Jersey, that’s Hoboken, New Jersey city, is a B-plus. New Jersey itself is a D, with the exception of the Princeton area, which is a B.
Michigan is an F-minus, while Illinois, Chicago, is just an F. Minnesota is all the way up from an F-minus to an F. Mid-Atlantic states, the Philadelphia suburbs have slipped down to a D. The Pocono’s are an F-minus. Delaware is a B. Maryland shore its offerings are on F-minus.
Washington, DC, Maryland is a D. Virginia is a D-plus. West Virginia is a D-minus. That’s actually better than most of our margins, unfortunately. Raleigh is a D-plus now. That’s a serious slip for Raleigh. And Charlotte has gone all the way down, in our experience, to an F, and that’s probably due to the two banks laying off. Hilton Head has gone way down for us to an F-minus.
Atlanta, Georgia right now is an F-minus, but we’re really not a good judge. We are cutting roads and we have a trailer. It’s tough to get to the trailer. We have nothing to show, so that might account for the F-minus. But it’s definitely the market as well.
Florida Central, let’s see, Orlando primarily is D-minus. Florida East Coast, F. Florida north, Jacksonville, et cetera, F. Florida Tampa, F-minus, and Florida West, a C. That’s a significant change recently. We’ve had 24 deposits in the last four weeks.
I’m not sure that it’s not due to more aggressive discounts that we gave on some of the spec homes as the spec homes neared completion. Austin, Texas is a C. Dallas, Texas is a C. And San Antonio, Texas, I’m sorry to say, has gone down to a flunk, F.
West territory. Northern California is a D. Southern California is an F. That’s surprising. Even Orange County, where we have some pretty neat offerings have slipped seriously down. California, Palm Springs, F-minus. That could be seasonal.
We can’t tell, except the season should be starting now. Arizona is an F. Vegas has its own special category along with Tampa. It’s got an F-minus-minus. Reno is an F. Colorado was a C-minus. The fact that I differentiate between, I don’t think there were any F-pluses.
But the fact that I differentiate between F, F-minus and F-minus-minus, shows you that the drop in the market and to the extent that we’ve gone to in order for me to give you gradations, I go from miserable to outright purgatory. Thank you.”
6 (175)-
“Come on Jim, no one has been named Olive in the last 50 years.”
What about my cousin, Olive Clotpoll?
sorry SG, my reference in #121 was for your spot #78
So 2 banks lay off and Charlotte slips to an F? Wow.
syncmaster Says:
So 2 banks lay off and Charlotte slips to an F? Wow.
3 banks employ the entire town
Interesting.
November 9, 2007 — Global banking giant HSBC has put up the white flag in its grab for dominance in the mortgage market by closing its three-year-old asset- and mortgage-backed securities department and firing the staff.
http://www.nypost.com/seven/11092007/business/hsbc_bails_out_of_mortgage_trading_131379.htm
These guys seem to always be ahead of the curve. How long do you think it will take until, the merrills and the citis folow?
6-8 months is my prediction.
#179 Talking cache drop on a bmw, just wait until the 1-series arrives in 08. Looks good although, but I doubt the up-series bmr drivers will appreciate it.
http://www.bmwusa.com/vehicles/futurevehicles/new1?source=NEW1FVTOPNAV
btw, bmw (engineering) is VERY strong in fuel efficiency, would blow your mind to know what they do to make the ultimate driving machine a little less of a gas guzzler…
True to stereotype though the Germans do a MISERABLE job of communicating this, often leaving the exact opposite impression like noted in # 177.
#190
Mitchell,
If your Lexus was a piece of crap then you got a LEMON… oh, and NJPatient will eat your lunch.
Go back to selling trailers.
Sincerely,
Me
Is this the first we’re hearing from JP?
JPMorgan Chase Held $40.6 Billion in Leveraged Loans
JPMorgan Chase & Co., the third- largest U.S. bank, said it held $40.6 billion in leveraged loans and unfunded commitments as of Sept. 30 that are difficult to hedge and “further markdowns could result if market conditions worsen.”
JPMorgan’s pipeline for fees from investment banking also dropped from June 30 because of a decline in debt underwriting, the New York-based bank said in a filing today with the U.S. Securities and Exchange Commission.
A slowdown in the mortgage market producing less liquidity and wider credit spreads may make it harder to sell loans to finance leveraged buyouts, the bank said. Investment banking fees and trading revenue may also decline.
JPMorgan’s collateralized debt obligations, subprime mortgage holdings and trading positions may fall in the fourth quarter because of market conditions, the bank said. As a result, more money to cover bad loans may have to be set aside.
Home equity loans may cause a loss of $250 million to $270 million per quarter, “over the next few quarters,” the bank said.
JPMorgan wrote down the value of loans for leveraged buyouts by $1.3 billion in the third quarter and marked down the value of CDOs by $339 million, the filing said.
Big Alt-A warning from S&P, via Reuters:
S&P may cut 547 U.S. ALT-A RMBS, NIMS classes
Standard & Poor’s Ratings Services said on Friday it may cut the rating on about $2.4 billion of Alternative-A first-lien residential mortgage-backed securities and net interest margin securities (NIMS).
“The actions reflect a persistent rise in the level of delinquencies among the Alt-A mortgage loans supporting these transactions,” said S&P in a release.
Johnny boy,
I hear the 135 is a rocketship. I read one review that referred to it as a “baby m3”.
I have a feeling that a lot of people wished the market closed a half an hour early today.
Nice timing on the JPM and S&P warnings eh?
So how long before prime replaces alt-a and subprime as the big story?
up to this point i guess is that the banks which have to write down assets have already wrote down. the end of tunnel is near. guys.
“East Rutherford because of the Jets and Giants.”
[166].
I thought it was known for the Izod Center?
bi:
“up to this point i guess is that the banks which have to write down assets have already wrote down. the end of tunnel is near. guys.”
Have you been buying rock from those guys on your corner?
#212 I think it has already started as far as HELOC’s & Home Equity Loans.
3b…did you get a load of ‘his’ last comment?
How does he come up with this stuff? He is more short-sited than the general population of the average nursing home.
Raleigh is a D-plus now. That’s a serious slip for Raleigh. And Charlotte has gone all the way down, in our experience, to an F, and that’s probably due to the two banks laying off.
Many buyers in those areas are from the NY metro area. I’ll bet the slowdown there is also due in part to “cash in buyers” or “home arbitragers”, if you will, not being able to sell their homes up here so they can move down there.
Grim,
Yup, yup, you can even get it with the M-sports package – big wheels, tight suspension, the works (minus the M engine unfortunately).
They’ve had the hatchback version in Europe for a while now, no where near as pretty as the coupe imo. The entry level versions are a little weak but go above 120 and you’re good.
Check out this racing version they premiered in Japan.
http://www.webwombat.com.au/motoring/news_reports/bmw-1-series-coupe-tii.htm
RentinginNJ,
“Many buyers in those areas are from the NY metro area. I’ll bet the slowdown there is also due in part to “cash in buyers” or “home arbitragers”, if you will, not being able to sell their homes up here so they can move down there.”
I agree.
So what do people make of Hudson County, NJ, being the strongest market in the country, according to Toll?
#217 stu: I just tell myself, he has a beautiful mind, breathe deeply, and scroll down.
Although Doyls says I can use G—-H—–, but I am trying to save it.
“the end of tunnel is near. guys.”
That’s what they said regarding the big dig. They popped the chamapagne and then; leaks, floods, ceiling collapses and kills a woman, indictments for tainted concrete,faulty bolt fixtures and weakness in the tunnel walls. However, they did see the light at the end of the tunnel.
DFC – DELTA FINANCIAL CORPORATION Trade
Last Trade: 2.1000 [-] (Delayed Quote) 11/09/2007 03:58pm
Change: -1.0400 -33.12%
Volume: 872,365
Was 13 bucks a share in August, looks like the next american home mortgage. Down 33% today.
“they did see the light at the end of the tunnel” — an oncoming train perhaps?
#220 pret: Without getting into a long winded discussion/arguement with you (speaking for myself), here goes.
I do not see it lasting;heavily dependent on Wall St. And the 5 year party on the street is over, much as you wish to believe otherwise.
I gotta tell you guys, farming sucks. And it is clearly over-rated.
One thing though, at least Gold’s rise is keeping me in good spirits.
Cant wait to move down south and take a 80K paycut to save 8K in taxes.
Lots of 45 year old cops and firemen cashing in by selling their 600K capes up here and buying 300K mansions down there. Well that ship has sailed, NS/SC is going down faster than a preachers daughter on prom night.
guys you can laugh as long as you want. but i draw this conclusion by watching today’s market action on financials very closely: FNM erased 10% loss at open and all financials had strong run until 3:30 pm. it is friday, right? happy veteran’s day!
Foreclosures are going to be an increasing fact of life over the next few years and this NYT week-in-review audio slide show does a good job of putting the human face on it, in this case in Georgia…
http://www.nytimes.com/interactive/2007/09/02/weekinreview/20070902_FORECLOSE_FEATURE.html
I didn’t realize that the sherifs went into the houses with their guns drawn during a standard eviction, later on you see a pic of little Karina age 7 watching them come through…sad.
Regardless of how they ended up there, speculating or just sucked into the whirlwind, this country is going to go through some serious pain as RE wild ride comes back down to reality.
“faster than a preachers daughter on prom night.”
She was handing out invitations for eats and drinks, to view downtown condos.
#218 I think if your in the finance industry and decent at your job then any city your in trouble. Charlotte makes the most difference since most financial orgs are here. Only the upper level or butt kissers have a worry free job in finance. Everything else is still somewhat stable in all areas.
I like this forum but its really following the housing market. When things are up the board is up but when things are down a lot of the people are down on each other.
“When things are up the board is up but when things are down a lot of the people are down on each other.”
Come again?
#227 Its not all about taxes most jobs here pay the same or nearly the same as they do in the north. I may make less than I did in the north but at the end of the year I have more in the bank because of all my reductions. We still have first time home buyers buying new not fixer uppers and financed beyond their means. People do that in general.
Ever consider maybe your not worth 80k more to someone down here and should count your blessing someone is willing to pay you that much more up north. Might not last forever. Judging from your attitude I can tell you arent worth what your being paid now.
Places like charlotte, raleigh, memphis, texas have a choice hire someone for 150K in NY/NJ or hire them in Charlotte for 115K. Same job being done just a different location but 115K affects a companies bottom line a lot better.
But it doesnt matter jobs in NJ/NY have been paying less year over year so its only a matter of time before you cant afford to live there. Then if you go into unemployment how long will you last before your a forclusure statistic.
You have more tax increases on the way because the state is going to be what 3 billion short from all the people moving away so they are going to be increasing taxes on you again which makes houses less attractive to buyers especially when employers arent hiring for more money but for less.
Its not about how much you make its how much you get to keep in the end.
Try Ohio, Kentucky, Texas, Etc. If you havent heard your free to live anywhere. Those who disagree probably have no idea from top to bottom of their finances. They are too hooked in dollar per hour instead of the bottom line.
NY/NJ went through a housing boom not a pay scale boom the dollar in NJ is worth less than the dollar in NC.
Best of luck to everyone.
Bob.
229 Johnny boy
Boarded up neighborhoods and foreclosure notices with a ‘gun drawn’ bonus? I gotta move south!
I’m dying to move closer to pimp/preacher/Wealth Creator Mr. Tycoon…
#229 johnnyboy
foreclosures affect renters too….
Foreclosure can leave renters homeless
http://www.bankrate.com/brm/news/real-estate/20071109_foreclosure_eviction_renters_a1.asp
Think you’re exempt from the financial fallout of the downtrodden real estate market because you’re a renter? Think again.
If your landlord is facing foreclosure, you could easily end up on the street as well.
There were 223,538 foreclosure filings in September 2007, up almost 99 percent from the year before, according to figures from RealtyTrac, a company that tracks foreclosure activity. And it’s not just borrowers losing their personal homes — in many cases lenders are foreclosing on rental properties. Because lenders are not usually interested in managing rental properties, tenants are finding themselves displaced in the process.
“It’s a real bad problem,” says Ken Volk, founder of Arizona Tenants Advocates & Association, an organization that promotes tenants’ rights. The influx of tenants contacting his organization in the last three to six months has prompted Volk to compile information on the topic at his Web site, arizonatenants.com.
Not only are tenants being forced to leave, but because they generally have no knowledge of the landlord’s deteriorating financial situation, they are often taken by surprise.
“They (landlords) see foreclosure coming many, many months away. But they may not communicate this to their renters, so this can sneak up on renters,” says Brian Sullivan, a spokesman for the Department of Housing and Urban Development, or HUD.
#232 The board has become very negative over the last couple of weeks.
Mitchell, NO ONE CARES ABOUT NC
“#232 The board has become very negative over the last couple of weeks.”
mitchell [237],
Negative towards what? RE?
Mitch….I’m sorry, you earned this…..
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=ihd4G9XxJOc
#237
Mitchell,
People tend to not like realtors trying to sell them on NC via a blog… your fault, sorry man.
Oh, and “most jobs here pay the same” is a very general statement…
I don’t work in NJ though, NYC.
Bull$hit-O-Meter…..ding.ding.ding….
Sleazy Dimon….
http://www.bloomberg.com/apps/news?pid=20601103&sid=a8bnejPdqrZg&refer=us
Johnny #229 Some vid. Maybe our poster who likes to call people WIMPS could see what a he-man he is in her face.HE -MAN or maybe A##hole.
#241 I found NY pays less than NJ which I never understood.
#240 I love it.
In general even on the days I havent posted and just read the board has become more hostile. Picking at little things. Doesnt seem to matter what. I think there are maybe 5 people who will drive everyone else away from this board. Will see.
Chifi et al;
When are the heads on WS going to roll?
I know a whole bunch of people who got scooped up three years ago into support positions on the street. One of them was a marketing major without any interest in the markets and the other was actually somewhat interested but not particularly sharp.
I thought there was a weeding process of sorts. To me, it seems like it was a free for all payroll spree the result of which was a ridiculous paycheck for doing “things with money” as one of them put it.
When will the music stop? Are in the outro?
SS,
There are 5 SFH for sale on Hackensack St in Wood Ridge
2 “Colonials”
2 Ranch
1 Cape Cod
You’ll need to walk around the corner and get an address.
Rich
BTW Im not a realtor but I run a bunch of real estate sites that are free because I dont like the high cost people charge to someone selling thier home. Actually I have about 250 websites on various topics.
I think there are maybe 5 people who will drive everyone else away from this board. Will see.
I don’t recall this site getting so many posts as it does now.
Maybe people rebuffing your hard-sell tactics has colored your judgment?
rich [246],
Maybe it’s easier to post what’s not for sale?
#238 Could just be the days I read the site but its been a bit darker.
I would guess that is might be realtors on the site trying to contradict the housing market decline or analysts that are getting beat up.
Flame wars tend to generate a lot of chatter back and forth.
#232 BC Bob: bi’s brother?
BC [249]
Bwahahahaha!
#244
Mitchell,
That must be an IT thing…
Mitch (247)-
“Actually I have about 250 websites on various topics.”
Oh, boy.
Mitch-
Are you an actual person, or a spambot?
“bi Says:
November 9th, 2007 at 4:29 pm
guys you can laugh as long as you want.”
I’ll make you a deal: you keep writing and we’ll keep laughing.
#251 I think what is getting taken out of context is that I am promoting NC, SC, Etc. I compare the two because I have a reference for it. In fact Im trying to point out that NJ economy is so far out of whack that the best option may be to look elsewhere. Despite the pay rates being lower on other areas the overall ratio of income to cost of living is better in many other areas without the fears that higher taxes in a declining income area can only spell disaster. It could explain why several large financial firms HQ are not located in NY and when the layoffs occured it didnt occur in NY because well they didnt hire people for those positions in the higher paying areas because like I stated before why hire for 150K in NY when they can hire a person to do the same in TX for 115K. I dont doubt that NY and NJ are great places to live but its economy is screwed and the middle class is leaving furthering decline of the state and its people. So either you sit through and watch your assets decline or you get out while you can and try someplace else. Its not all tractor pulls and double wides elsewhere. What seems like back woods and country on the surface is the new world since we all technically work in a virtual one today.
New York may actually be a dying city being replaced some day by Vegas because its cheaper to build new than it is to rebuild something based on old technology. All NY has left is ego and that is fading.
Now tell me how a financial analyst in NY is worth so much more than one in TN in a virtual world? He isnt and companies and people are catching onto this.
This is why a lot of layoffs were in Texas not in NJ. Because the same job can be done there for much less. Eventually you will be forced to take less pay or the company will just hire someone somewhere else for less. Same job gets done in a virtual world. Get over your pay rates they wont last forever and focus on your imcome to cost of living ratios and the bottom line. The economy is going into a mild recession and in some place like NY/NJ its going to be much worse.
schab (235)-
Everything’s easier down South. Get a marshal, and enforce a foreclosure at gunpoint. Good times.
There’s also a special way to evict deadbeat tenants, which basically involves a big guy with an aluminum baseball bat busting down the door and giving the occupants 20 minutes to get out with everything they value. My brother dubbed this the “Oklahoma Eviction”.
mitch (257)-
I guess #257 was your reply that you are, indeed, a spambot.
“Only the upper level or butt kissers have a worry free job in finance.”
Too right! I mean, when was the last time you heard of the CEO of a financial corp losing his job!? It’s been … what … a couple of hours?
“I found NY pays less than NJ which I never understood.”
Pays less for what? I’m guessing Doyle can’t get the same pay in NJ, likely the same goes for John, and it’s certainly true for me.
I’d have to take a 50% pay cut to move to Charlotte.
“Actually I have about 250 websites on various topics.”
Jack of all trades…
“This is why a lot of layoffs were in Texas not in NJ. Because the same job can be done there for much less. ”
why are they firing the guys who get paid less?
#259 yup that totally negates my comments you win.
#258 I kind of like the marshall effect. Seems you can actually get people out of properties they arent paying for. Its sad but how many are deadbeats trying to say well the system can do nothing to me and I can live here for months on end without paying a cent. While the wall street journal can play it as a sympathy story we know in a lot of cases its people who financed way beyond thier means looking to get rich with real estate.
Washington Township (Bergen)
SLD 19 FILLMORE DR $825,000 6/1/2006
ACT 19 FILLMORE DR $819,900 9/18/2007
PCH 19 FILLMORE DR $799,000 11/9/2007
(Plus the cost: UPDATED W/GORGEOUS GRANITE TOPS W/TILE BACKSPLASH)
#261 Because they arent needed when the loan industry is a failure. Loans are harder to get which means they need less people to process them. You should ask why those hundreds of jobs werent in NY in the first place. Its because most of the high paying jobs in NY/NJ have moved elsewhere. Those that havent will be seeing pay cuts.
You doubt me? What do you think the next option is for companies that are seeing billion dollar losses if it isnt jobs its salaries that come next. Companies are going to get leaner that means replacing high paying positions with lower paying ones.
Nothing last forever. The housing boom is the first second is the jobs third is the pay rates.
NJPatient,
I can’t even get a 50% pay cut in Charlotte. My job doesn’t exist down there…
“preacher’s daughter on prom night” LOL!!
You’d best watch your mouth, John-Boy or that preacher’ll be all over yew lak ugly on a frog!
(we return now to our regularly scheduled program on New Jersey real estate)
Great point, Doyle.
People who do my job (a specialized type of real estate investing) in the US condense in select cities. Roughly 60% New York, 10% Chicago, 10% San Francisco, 10% Boston, and 10% dispersed in other major cities.
If I moved to Charlotte, then I would have to take at least a 50% pay cut and work in a job that is a lot less innovative and fun compared to what I do now.
I cant tell you how many positions we had open at Wachovia where they cancelled hiring the people in NY and instead hired the people in Texas and Charlotte. Its was simply because we could get the same work from someone in a different location for less money. Over the last 2 years that has happened many times. Anything else was outsourced oversees. The days of hiring people with super high salaries in locations like NY/NJ are coming to an end.
No company cares what your house costs and what kind of finances you have they only look at the bottom line and if its 50K more to hire someone in NY over TX guess who and why they are are going to hire the people in Texas. Hey I just saved the company 300K a year by hiring 6 people in Texas instead of NY. Thats a bonus to someone in thier paycheck for doing this.
They can do your job in Texas because they work in a virtual world. The stock market is a virtual one as is many other people positions they will go to the cheaper areas.
Overpriced homes dont help and as I said NJ/NY is screwed. Your gov tax hikes done help.
“#261 Because they arent needed when the loan industry is a failure. ”
But you were explaining why they’d be firing the low-paid TX folk rather than the highly paid NY folk. That doesn’t get you there.
#264 Use monster and search state by state its a beautiful country explore other areas. Lots of country to the west. NC/SC isnt the end all be all but a lot of positions that used to exist in NY are here now or Texas. Try Ohio you have 49 other options. Take the equity and run or find a place where the income to pay rate is not suicide.
“If I moved to Charlotte, then I would have to take at least a 50% pay cut and work in a job that is a lot less innovative and fun compared to what I do now.”
pret, this better describes my situation as well.
#269 The jobs never existed in NY to fire them. Just wait its coming.
I dont know what field your in to take a 50% cut but it cant be a good career if you can only find good pay rates in NY/NJ.
Careful Mitchell. You are developing an accent. Did you forget to add the word ‘none’ before the period?
“Your gov tax hikes done help.”
#274 I have one test you give. Ask this one question and that decides if you should move there or run. Ask the neighbors if Wrestling is real if they say yes then get out of there. Im happy to say Wresling is not real where I live.
Mitchell Says:
November 9th, 2007 at 6:15 pm
Its was simply because we could get the same work from someone in a different location for less money.
_______
Mitch, having lived across this country, I can tell you without a doubt NYC metro area has few rivals when it comes to a driven, highly educated population & an accompanying work ethic that puts most this country to shame many times over.
I was at JPMC and observed as they moved ever more jobs down to Columbus, Ohio for a fraction of the cost. The quality, seasoning and experience of those individuals paled in comparison to their NYC counterparts. On the surface it appeared (and I’m sure Jamie believed) that many of the more retail positions, at least, could be relocated easily. But even those replacements were woefully inadequate.
It was nothing remotely close to an even trade.
Sorry, that was me :)
Steve
Overpriced homes dont help and as I said NJ/NY is screwed.
Try and find who on this site would put up with:
moving to outwoods of the Carolinas–with Charlotte(ugh) as the nearest point of civilization–so they can spend their time in petty squabbles with the ubiquitous HOAs that dominate the area.
It seems like it would be hell on earth.
A mentor of mine back in the early 90’s invested heavily in home building in North Carolina. He eventually sold off his business in New Jersey and retired to run his properties and it paid off big time for him and his family.
Some interesting things down there such as more hogs than people about 10 million in all which do cause huge environmental issues in that state. They have decriminalized marijuana usage and in my opinion are strangely very liberal for the south.
From MarketWatch:
This week’s Real Estate stories
(Mitchell, You may want to pass on this one, they’re all negative over at MarketWatch…)
Sean (279)-
Yeah, but there’s still enough people down there who absolutely worship Jesse Helms.
The Triangle (RDU/Chapel Hill) supplies most of the liberal element. The tobacco areas and Pinewoods are the home of the ultra-reactionary conservatives.
Funny thing, though…as bitter as the politics get, the money/corruption/dirty tricks thing has never been awful there. At the end of the day, something resembling mutual respect seems to keep all the players away from the nuclear option. I always thought that having to face your opponents in church every week did something to keep things civil.
http://www.nj.com/starledger/stories/index.ssf?/base/news-2/1194155213192520.xml&coll=1
Bi-
I beleive you mentioned that no builder in Middlesex County has cut their prices? I think you are WRONG!!! SouthField Estates in Monroe cut their prices on all QUICK DELIVERY HOMES BY $100,000.
Bi are you a flipper?
Mitchell’s analysis misses the mark on a number of fronts…..his armchair’ism seems fascinating though. I wonder where he found information for his thesis? Undergrad at Rutgers visa vis North Carolina Community College?
#263 Rich PCH ? Sorry, keep forgetting.
#284 Essex: Dont knock Rutgers.
283#, nino, give a link?
Why not 3b…they beat my (‘undefeated til then) Bulls!
No my thought was that he came from somewhere else and looked around as a prospective graduate and the whole scene scared him. Natural for any recent grad imho.
bi [287],
RIGHT NOW, he doesn’t need a link.
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=-rLYph0J7vc&ref=boligkrakk.blogspot.com
#288 Essex: Just busting!
I know…..me too. My sister is selling a place in NC “right now”….on a golf course….but the place right across the street from them just got their ask….hmmmmm
anyone see the amount of new bentleys (all 150kplus) and porsches at the dealer in parsippany..they also have 2 ferraris and a lambo in their used car section….no worry of a recession there!!
BC Bob, I’m glad you posted the link to that video. I was just thinking before how complacent and “sweet” this blog has become lately. I’m sure the house pushers are just loving it.
I haven’t been on a soap box in a loooong time and to be quite honest, after opening the daily emails with links to the idiots’ POS houses and their laughable asking prices, perhaps it’s time to remind the readers here, new and old, what the message is, was and continues to be. Whew!!
It’s been two years from peak and the prices are still… STILL…. f*cking insane. These people are f*cking nuts. And anyone who buys a house anywhere near these f*cked up prices are as delusional as the fat, drunken b*stards who are off-loading their dump.
REFUSE…TO…BUY…THESE…HOUSES! Where’s Boyaaa Bob?
To the lenders…. f*ck you. To the sellers… f*ck you. To David Lereah, still…. f*ck you. To Lawrence Yun… f*ck you. To the buyers crying for help…. f*ck you. To the realtors trying to scrape together a few more dimes for that leased, wannabe BMW…. f*ck you. Get a real job, with tangible skills, like me, who has a steady income. It sucks without the bidding wars, doesn’t it? whaaaaaaa!! NOT!
I mean, c’mon now, gimme a f*cking break. Are you going to tell me these people aren’t smoking turpintine?
http://homes.realtor.com/search/listingdetail.aspx?ctid=27365&mnp=32&typ=7&sid=e92b065e841449c78e5451005f66b9d5&sdir=1&sby=2&pg=2&lid=1086254511&lsn=14&srcnt=49#Detail
Look at this mess for 3/4 of a million:
http://homes.realtor.com/search/listingdetail.aspx?ctid=28486&mnp=33&typ=7&sid=eb6955b658464104b8e41f7bff20e24e&sdir=1&sby=2&pg=6&lid=1088549601&lsn=52&srcnt=64#Detail
Here you go, here’s an open house for Sunday, MAY 6TH!!! BWAAAAHAAAAA!!!!
ALL BROKERS WELCOME!!!! BWAHHA!!!
http://homes.realtor.com/realestate/totowa+boro-nj-07512-1073984252/
Damn….prestigious totowa….why are all of these $1M boxes so horrible looking…..Great video BTW…..”RIGHT NOW”
i million to live in totowa.
3/4 to live in w.paterson.
are they kidding.
gary, how about this?
http://homes.realtor.com/search/listingdetail.aspx?zp=90275&ml=3&typ=1&sid=e62a4a42cbfb46ed851510a1773fc54a&pg=8&lid=1082287471&lsn=72&srcnt=138#Detail
Gary [293],
In addition to that, f*ck you Cowboys.
how about all the condosthey are trying to
unload. Prices are the same as houses and
so are the taxes.
Crazy.
outsourcing to India, NC, TX, GA, etc.
I have been very disappointed with the results of our outsourcing experiments.
If you can’t do it right, right now, I have no use for you; you are just costing me money.
It’s all about agility.
Bi…that actually might be a $1M view…all you can see from Totowa is route 46.
Right now;
“E-Trade shares slumped to $7.41 during after-hours trading on Friday, also hit by news that the broker had received an informal inquiry from the Securities and Exchange Commission regarding its loan and security portfolios.”
http://www.marketwatch.com/news/story/e-trade-shares-plunge-after-hours/story.aspx?guid=%7B61EB5E01%2D7BB1%2D4973%2D9546%2DAA3DD21C2402%7D&siteid=bnb
Right now…..it is getting ugly….and uglier.
Right now,
BB and Rubin:
http://www.financialsense.com/fsu/editorials/zentay/2007/1108.html
“outsourcing”
When you pay peanuts, expect monkeys.
Also, a consistently weak dollar will eventually force US companies to reconsider outsourcing indiscriminately just to cut costs. The cost advantage will further wither away given the huge wage inflation in Asia.
BC Bob,
Indeed… f*ck Romo!! I hope Strahan, Kiwanuka and Umenyora get two a piece!
Right Now, Eddie Van Halen is talking about Real Estate:
Don’t wanna wait till tomorrow,
Why put it off another day?
One more walk through problems,
Built up, and stand in our way
One step ahead, one step behind me
Now you gotta run to get even
Make future plans, dont dream about yesterday
Cmon turn, turn this thing around
Right now
The more things you get, the more you want,
Just trade in one for the other,
Workin so hard, to make it easier, whoa,
Got to turn, cmon turn this thing around
bi,
That house at LEAST has a view. But then again, that’s overrated, too.
I don’t know gary….when all else fails you can at least sit in your yard and watch the city burn as the revolution begins…..
Illusion of prosperity headed out way?
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=7l-uYsyquAk
Essex 311,
Hot Dog!! I hope the revolution starts in the summer, this way we can get a keg and put the speakers in the window and PARTY!!!
#293
whew, gary, that was so wrong it was right. between that rant and this here beer, I feel a whole lot better.
RayC,
Great!! Have one on me! More rants tomorrow…
gary Says:
November 9th, 2007 at 10:02 pm
To the lenders…. f*ck you. To the sellers… f*ck you. To David Lereah, still…. f*ck you. To Lawrence Yun… f*ck you. To the buyers crying for help…. f*ck you. To the realtors trying to scrape together a few more dimes for that leased, wannabe BMW…. f*ck you. Get a real job, with tangible skills, like me, who has a steady income. It sucks without the bidding wars, doesn’t it? whaaaaaaa!! NOT!
gary: looks like a job for the geto boyz….
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=CbtJMP8wZhQ
fluff post:
what’s a good four-square neighborhood in nj?
&…
cape?
craftsman?
mod/metro?
your-fav-style?
i.e you’re not worried about price but the style
btw. style = quality; flips decrease value of your ‘style’ so post sharp!
Belmar?
gary, nobody’s grown sweet around here, you just drank three more beers than you normally do. Go check out the garbage can count…see what I mean?
grim Says:(#3)
November 9th, 2007 at 6:05 am
110 Graphic Blvd, Bergenfield
Purchased: 3/3/2006
Purchase Price: $735,000
Sold: 11/8/2007
Sale Price: $655,000
———————————–
thatBIGwindow Says:(#15)
November 9th, 2007 at 7:05 am
“… Who is buying six hundred thousand dollar houses in Bergenfield…not only is Bergenfield insane with property taxes, but the schools are horrible and the town overall was bad 20 years ago, even worse 10 years ago and even worse than that in current times…”
Commanderbob sez: I agree, BIGwindow on your opinion about Bergenfield, but Graphic Blvd houses are on the nicer (west) side of town. The one GRIM posted above I believe was built in early 2006.(One 1950-era corner home demolished and two put-up in its place..)This area from the south end of town -to- the north Teaneck border is being populated by Orthodox Jewish Families.– Kinda like an overflow of population needing housing because of the newly expanded Synagogue by New bridge rd/Prospect Ave.in Bergenfield.-They are apparantly ‘running-out’ of homes to purchase in the ‘better’ sections of Teaneck….
A friend of mine had purchased (For ‘flipping’) a 1940’s home in the same area early this year and is in the process of renovating it as we speak….Doing a good job (IMHO). : New kitchen (Kosher Kitchen) renovated bathrooms, etc…..He hopes to put it on the market soon for about $625K—-I told him GOOD LUCK !!–I hope that he sells it in this terrible seller’s market…There are quite a bit of tear-downs going on in this quadrant, all hoping to cash-in on the above phenomena….
BOB
Any job that can be outsourced will be outsourced. And of Corporate America can’t outsource the job they will insource cheap labor from Mexico (i.e. trucking industry). This is one of the many reason our US Dollar is tanking.
looks like if Americans won’t buy homes foreigner see real value here …http://biz.yahoo.com/ap/071110/wall_main.html?.v=2…
Some address requests that got lost in the mix..
2440321 – 114 SYCAMORE AVE
2454508 – 254 HIGH ST
NJMLS# 2727080
74 Roosevelt Blvd, Oakland NJ
Purchased: 8/15/2003
Purchase Price: $339,900
Currently active, listed at $319,900. The current list price is 6% below the 2003 purchase price!
Note: This property is a Foreclosure/REO
This is an interesting property for someone who can swing a hammer and isn’t afraid of a little mold (as-is)..
NJMLS# 2733983
1080 Quigley Ct, Teaneck NJ
Purchased: 10/1/2003
Purchase Price: $600,000
Currently active, listed at $479,900. Current list price is 20% under the 2003 purchase price.
Note, property is a new construction (2003ish) corp/relo with water/freeze damage and mold.
Also worth noting that the house across the street (1081 Quigley) is for sale at $625,000 (down from $700k in 2005).
Interesting stuff Grim. Now if these lug heads out their can stop buying hold out 8 to 12 monthes we could get some affordable prices.28 homes sold in my town last month.Sheeple jump on small reductions STUPID.My agent advised me to buy a house & flip as I can renovate myself.
I told her that party is over.Still preaching good buy will be worth alot more in few years.Detached from reality for sure but they got 28 idiots to buy & trust me if any deal was that good I would have bought it.
OK, has anyone seen the home next to shoprite in Livingston….this thing was on the market for YEARS….at least since 2002…..finally someone looks like they have rehabbed it. I always glanced at the thing–it sits right next to the shoprite parking lot…..but now it simply fascinates me in a macabre sort of way.
Krugman on the US housing bubble
http://youtube.com/watch?v=qo4ExWEAl_k
gary (294)-
I’m pretty sure you can’t smoke turpentine.
Did somebody post this re Citigroup:
http://www.crossingwallstreet.com/archives/2007/11/did_she_say_shi.html
Clotpoll (330),
Based on that listing, they’re ingesting something that’ll cause improper cerebral synapse.
Here ya go, look at this mess for 700 large. Even with the fuzzy picture you can see the paint peeling everywhere. Oh, I get it, they were hoping we didn’t notice. When this dive finally sells in 2026, they’ll have to get the CSI crew in to ID the remains.
http://homes.realtor.com/search/listingdetail.aspx?mlslid=2430258&ml=3&typ=7&sid=5c88286f740b4e6abd1bf38af24f9e34&lid=1086259583&lsn=1&srcnt=1#Detail
From Roberta Baldwin’s (Montclair Area Realtor) Blog:
http://suburbandigs.typepad.com/my_weblog/2007/11/post.html
Thanks for the Memories?
Blind to the risk in dispensing millions of adjustable sub-prime mortages to Americans desperate to own homes, Wall Street titans are falling like flies. Their firms issued, then either sold or bought similar loans in large numbers, leaving the little people to flail as the loans adjust up to untenable levels. What were they thinking?
Now, the New York Times reports that homeowners on the edge of default are actually being told they MUST default in order to be helped out of default — if and when the bank or mortgage entity feels like paying attention to their problems (another Times article). Over at Washington Mutual these days, the Loss Mitigation (read: debt collection) department is now called Home Preservation. Yet even agents cleared to negotiate forclosures can’t get through to overworked negotiators and it may take months and months and months to do a bank deal.
Warm and fuzzy euphemisms aside, fear is in the air — and not just for those who may lose their homes very soon.
It’s also rampant among people who CAN afford to purchase. They’re so scared, they can’t find anything they actually want to buy — despite a surfeit of available properties in many areas. They’re so nervous, they think everything is over-priced, even when it’s just been reduced 20 percent. They feel better when sellers beg for their business. They do not want to see sellers hanging tough, asking for appraisal waivers, “as is” conditions, closing date changes.
Bank of America’s “Monthly Real Estate Agent Survey” for October 2007 is out (I’m a participant), affirming the lasting impact of the credit crunch and buyer defiance of price reductions. The “not ready to buy” syndrome is upon us, a paralysis of will even for those who yearn for space and sanctuary.
On the sell side, The Baldwin Dream Team has been hearing this fall from a larger than average number of our young clients in an impatient generation who bought in the last 1-3 years and are so ready for a bigger home. Problem is, they bought high, then ripped out kitchens and baths and replaced with the best of the best and now feel entitled to get back what they’ve spent and more. An average of 10 months in many areas to find a buyer? They can’t conceive of the notion.
It’s messed up, isn’t it? I feel sorry for new Realtors, who will have no idea how to work with the constant uncertainties. Twelve years ago, when I began my real estate career, I would do a quick calculation in my head when I had orchestrated a successful offer. Not now. No toasts, no self-gifting until the deal is completely closed.
One of my deepest-held beliefs: Homes are shelter from the storm. They are not just about profit. They are memory-making vessels. So, I am strangely upbeat. I know that when you need to make your memories, you will buy and I will help you do that.
Oh, I’m sorry, I never said good morning to the sharks and their clientele, the sellers. How rude of me. So, good morning house tour guides and sellers and….. f*ck you.
Sellers, in case you missed the memo, the party is over… the gig is up…. Elvis has left the building….. it’s over. You over-slept. That’s what happens when you drink too much. You missed the greatest five year window ever to pilfer, swindle, pinch, lift and embezzle the plebs for their present and future coke money. Stop crying and grow up.
Your house is a POS, admit it. It hasn’t seen a piant brush since the last Apollo mission and you’re taking advice from your neighbors cousins uncles step-mother on Real Estate. Nobody wants your dive, it smells. Save yourself the trouble and drop it 25% to beat the mad rush for the life boats.
And realtors, sober up. You still have to make a living and it’s not the end of the world. Driving a ’97 Buick Century doesn’t make you any less of a person.
…
Government figures yesterday showed Canada’s trade surplus narrowed to the smallest since 1998 as exports slumped.
…
French President Nicholas Sarkozy told American lawmakers Nov. 7 the U.S. must support the dollar or risk triggering a trade war.
http://www.bloomberg.com/apps/news?pid=20601087&sid=aMY38..x3Row&refer=home
>>
emerging markets not stepping up to the challenge?? I’m surprised.
chifi 316,
Hey, that’s me in that video… upper left side!
Can anyone give me info on
683 Victoria Ave
Paramus NJ 07652
Thanks
Long time lurker here. What do you think of buying a car, in general?
My dilemma is this: I’m renting a 1BR in NYC. I work in the suburbs, commute is easy. Wife does not work. Rent and city tax are high (though city tax may be largely deducted from federal taxes), but I don’t need a car.
We’ve been thinking of moving to suburbs. In that case, we would rent a 2BR and the rent would still be $400 less. However, most likely we would need a car (for commute, going to grocery store etc). I would buy a reliable, new car which seems to cost around $15,000. Annual payments (insurance, gas, oil change, maintenance scams, tolls etc) are also decent. I know nothing about cars.
We like city life but it is expensive here so this is a tough situation. Perhaps we can hang out here until we have kids.
Does he really like look a d*ck?
http://bp2.blogger.com/_wFWqWIH-WFU/RzS7fEbgL3I/AAAAAAAACzE/HyFZCitAw9k/s1600-h/dick+head+4.jpg
“273. Mitchell Says: November 9th, 2007 at 6:22 pm
I dont know what field your in to take a 50% cut but it cant be a good career if you can only find good pay rates in NY/NJ.”
I didn’t say that. I said it would be a 50% cut to go to SC. I could get the same or similar pay in Chi, Bos, DC, LA, SF, and there are another dozen metro areas where I’d be better off than in SC.”
Hans,
I’m actually very surprised that the difference in rent is only $400 between NYC and the burbs. Is it a comparable apartment or would you be getting something bigger?
If the decision is strictly based on the economics of car expenses versus lower rent , NYC wins out. The payment, insurance, maintenance, gas, etc. on even a very reasonable $15k will cost more than $400 per month.
While I’ll admit to buying new cars, the “optimal purchase” from an economic perspective is a used car, since most of the depreciation happens early in a cars life. In other words, let someone else pay to drive it off the lot.
What Market Slump?
http://www.nytimes.com/2007/11/11/realestate/11deal1.html?_r=1&ref=realestate&oref=slogin
$400 a month in car expense? How do you figure that? I bought a new car last year–I’m also a relocated Manhattanite. Insurance is about $1500/yr., and my gas consumption (I don’t drive very much) is about $30/month. That comes out to about 2K per year.
London, Manila, Moscow and Seoul is moving to Jersey City
http://www.nytimes.com/2007/11/11/realestate/11njzo.html?ref=realestate
Han’s comparison is not apples to apples has he points out. I’ll bet that his suburban flat choice is more than twice the size with a lot more light and less noise. That said, it’s in the suburbs. The lifestyle is hugely different.
If it was me, I’d prefer the shorter commute. If kids were involved I’d stay in the ‘burbs. It’s more boring but also more sane and less polluted.
As for cars, $15K can buy a great used honda or toyota. A little more can buy something new. And despite popular mythology to the contrary, there is little difference in either price or quality in a new vs 2 year old honda/toyota.
“311. Essex Says: November 9th, 2007 at 11:00 pm
I don’t know gary….when all else fails you can at least sit in your yard and watch the city burn as the revolution begins…”
Hee!
Speaking of cars…
Looking for a newer Cayenne or Rover, let me know. No, not for me.
rentinginNJ:My NYC apt is 1BR and suburban apt rental would be 2BR. I agree that economically speaking, used car would probably be better, but it is also more risky. I would hate to find out that it breaks in the evening in bad area when my wife is driving, so we’d really need a reliable car.
peacenow: What about other car related costs? Don’t you need to have the annual maintenance checkups (by an authorized scam artist), and pay all kinds of tolls and fees. New car may go a year or two without actual maintenance, but my impression has been that all kind of minor things need to be fixed pretty soon.
In anycase, paying 15k plus annually 2k (plus future maintenance) for a rapidly depreciating vehicle sounds quite steep.
grim 323,
thanks
Hans….judging from your user name I would say you would be happiest in a late model certified used BMW……
Insurance is about $1500/yr., and my gas consumption (I don’t drive very much) is about $30/month. That comes out to about 2K per year
PeaceNow,
That’s good that you keep your expenses low, but your example isn’t typical.
Most people finance a car and therefore have a car payment that would gobble up most of the $400 budget. A 36 month loan would be about $400 per month alone. Even if you paid in cash, there is an opportunity cost. $15k, if sitting in a CD would earn $700 and change per year (compounding over time). Instead, you are losing money through depreciation.
At $2.90 per gallon in a car getting 27 MPG driving a modest 12,000 miles per year (less than average), gas will run $100/month. Depending where you drive, tolls and parking can get expensive.
Oil changes, air filters, tire rotation, wiper blades, new brakes and tires all cost money.
Han as you work in burbs, less travel?Your time is money.Also if you rent close to work lease.You can lease a new accord for about 230 to 250 a month.I would say 3 year lease,nothing to fix on a honda.Always lease a depreciating asset,if have to have new.Milage limit always consideration do the math see if leasing is for you.
Hans….judging from your user name I would say you would be happiest in a late model certified used BMW……
Happiest until the insurance bill comes – which assumes he got past a purchase price which is twice the amount he called “steep.”
.
Question….
I’ve been keeping my house down payment fund in 6-month treasury bills, which until recently had a decent yield. Now, as investors are stampeding toward quality and the short end of the yield curve is pricing in another cut, the 6-month bill is yielding as quite crappy 3.64%.
Countrywide is offering a 6 month CD at 5.4%. Now, I know that Countrywide is in major trouble and I wouldn’t be surprised to see them go belly up, but they are FDIC insured (I’d put in under $100k) and they are offering 175 basis points of US treasury bills.
In light of the FDIC insurance, what risks am I taking by chasing the higher yield?
#355,
The risk is that you’ll not have access to your money for 12 months while the FDIC works out this mess and you’ll not see any interest during this period.
355/356 – FDIC is there as a backstop. But what happens if they get overwhelmed with claims (in excess of available funds)? Eventually you’d get your $$ but what if it takes a taxpayer bailout?
Sounds overly pessimistic I know. But still..
mitchell –
the problem with moving to a secondary city like charlotte, for example, is that your job choices are very limited. you say you work for wachovia. if you don’t like your job there, or you get laid off or whatever, where do you go? bank of america? what if they’re not hiring? what if your spouse works is advertising or fashion? what are the job choices in charlotte in those fields?
by the way, isn’t wachovia the company that bought ag edwards? aren’t they moving the broker/dealer headquarters out of richmond, va. to st. louis missouri? now all the people with decent jobs in the richmond headquarters have to move to st. louis – right? yikes! if their headquarters were in nyc, people would have other choices.
imagine, you’re from ny, you move to one of these secondary one note cities, and then you get laid off, or the company moves to the boondocks, or you just can’t stand your boss ….. then what?
there is a reason the nyc area is more expensive, and it’s not all govt. waste or corruption.
http://www.seekingalpha.com/article/53656-consumer-sentiment-hits-danger-zone
I think general public starting to get it.
8 to 12 monthes 20 to 30% declines.
But do we hold out for more?
Second coming of huge resents 2010-2012?
Will gov bail them out by then?
We shall see.
Leasing a car sounds actually quite interesting. What do you get for 230-250 a month? I assume you would still have to pay insurance but what about oil changes and maintenance costs?
Zack,
ACT 683 VICTORIA AVE $1,194,500 11/25/2006
PCH 683 VICTORIA AVE $1,179,000 2/20/2007
PCH 683 VICTORIA AVE $1,159,000 3/8/2007
ACT* 683 VICTORIA AVE $1,159,000 5/30/2007
U/C 683 VICTORIA AVE $1,159,000 5/31/2007
BOM 683 VICTORIA AVE $1,159,000 6/8/2007
PCH 683 VICTORIA AVE $1,129,000 6/26/2007
W-U 683 VICTORIA AVE $1,129,000 7/25/2007
(Listing expires 7/31, relist)
ACT 683 VICTORIA AVE $1,194,500 7/25/2007
PCH 683 VICTORIA AVE $1,129,000 7/27/2007
PCH 683 VICTORIA AVE $1,099,000 10/12/2007
Taxes:$14,867 (High for Paramus?)
Renting My local bank will give you 4.75 for 7 month,Chase. Shop around or go out of U.S.Stay away from CFC MHO.
Thanks Rich,
What do those acronyms mean
ACT
PCH
U/C
BOM
W-U
I’ve found that Hudson City usually has the highest yields around (Currently paying 5.1apy for 6m).
However, realize that your money will almost certainly be used to fund jumbo/nonconforming loans.
ACT: Active Listing
PCH: Price Change
U/C: Under Contract
BOM: Back on Market (Active)
W-U: Withdrawn
Han Change oil, wipper blades ,rotate tires about it.Go to local shop, dealer will rip you off.Its all a ? of milage in these cost.Do you have any idea on that.
Almost any new car will be ok for first 3 yrs.
Under warranty anyway.You can spend less on other makes.Hondas are good cars but you don,t have to be to picky when leasing.Just shop around this can be done on net.You can get a nice car for 200 I’m sure.
#343 Frank: http://www.nysun.com/article/66066
ALl is not well in NYC it appears.
#365 Rich: Thanks
Grim funny you mention Hud Citi that was my next stop as I have acct. their also.Rate sounds good.Also very solid bank.
Thnks again Rich, I know the seller bought it in 2005-2006 for around 850K and looking to make a quick buck in a year. Just seeing how he chases the market down.
Han got to go be back about 1 hour.Happy to help out.Will get back to you then if you want more info or others here will help out I,m sure.
Into the wayback machine:
Re post 77 from Mitchell:
The hillbillies aren’t doing that much better than the corrupt politicos of NJ, state and local taxes there amount to about a 10% savings over the Garden State according to the tax foundation.org, an anti-tax website.
http://www.taxfoundation.org/news/show/335.html
Please stop with the nonsense posts about taxes.
The issue in NJ isn’t so much the amount of taxes as the way taxes are collected, i.e. through property taxes. Yes, NJ is now in the top 10 (actually 10th) in terms of local+state taxes, but at No. 26 SC is not that much better.
For what it’s worth, the No. 1 difference in the number of public employees in NJ vs. other states is the number of people in law enforcement. If you want lower taxes, the shortest road is by firing cops.
From the FBI Uniform Crime Report:
http://www.fbi.gov/ucr/cius2006/data/table_77.html
NJ law enforcement employees: 36,456
SC law enforcement employees: 14,332
SC has roughly half our population so we have roughly 8K more law enforcement employees than they do. The cost, figured conservatively, is $6.4B.
I’ve found that Hudson City usually has the highest yields around … realize that your money will almost certainly be used to fund jumbo/nonconforming loans
Although I’ve heard that Hud City was somewhat more conservative with their lending
Zack,
FYI:
The tax records show the following:
Deed $193,000 6/7/1999
Deed $425,000 1/7/2005
(New home built on lot)
Deed $995,000 6/2/2006
Mitchell
Ask the neighbors if Wrestling is real if they say yes then get out of there. Im happy to say Wresling is not real where I live.
Making fun of wrestling with bad spelling and punctuation?
That’s gold!
Grim,
Do you have a Monmouth County counterpart? I’m a day away from firing my current Realtor because she simply just does not get it.
If the neighbors refer to wrestling as rasslin’ that’s another troubling sign. If they’ve got a ring set up and take video recordings of them beating each other with folding chairs, run.
Renting I’ve heard the same, hud very conservative.My mom did a loan thru them and they asked for everything,but were timely with response.Easy when you have perfect credit and great LV on property.
Anyone know how does one commute from Monroe to NYC? Monroe does’nt seem to have a trainline.
So is bus the only means to commute to the city from monroe? Also how long is the commute?
Grim Clifton your neck of woods,right?Alwood sec. Newer home on Zeil.Have they taken a beating their,friend thinking about moving.If going to I will ref. you.OK.
UBS Investment Banking Bonuses to Be More Stock, Less Cash
http://www.bloomberg.com/apps/news?pid=20601087&sid=a1QSWUIwq9AU&refer=home
>>
Does this come with a 3-4 year vesting period??
Don’t worry, the fed,hedonics and govt models are in control of core inflation. As homeowners pay approx $1,500-$2,000 more for heating oil this winter, I’m sure it is comforting to hear how inflation is contained.
“In a separate report from the Labor Department, data showed some evidence that the weak dollar was affecting the price of imports. Import prices rose 1.8% in October after rising 0.8% in September, the department said. In the 12 months ended in October, import prices rose 9.6%, almost double the 5% rate for the 12 months ended in September.”
http://online.wsj.com/article/SB119461417518587918.html?mod=googlenews_wsj
378#, ATT, as far as i know there is no train line going to monroe. if you live near route 130 side of monroe, you can drive to turnpike 8A park and ride and take bus to port authority. the distance is long but it will not be too bad if there is no traffic.
(I am not familiar east side of monroe)
Check out the development mentioned in 283#. maybe you can find a good deal there.
378: att
My dad has commuted from Monroe (exit 8A) for years. They used to live on the golf course there at Forsgate. He drove about 1 mile to the bus depot right next to the exit at 8a and it’s a straight shot into the city.
When Commuting home from the city things back up a bit from exit 8 because (as you know) that’s where the truck and car langes merge back together. It’s not terribly bad though…
.. my opinion is, if you don’t care about schools, it’s a bargain to live on the golf course and have a straight shot into the city via bus.
peace…
salty What is commute time like in,out in peak time?
Not sure.. i’d have to ask my dad… nonetheless, I seem to remember him saying about an hour to port authority especially in the morning if you take the early bus. I think he was taking something like a 5:15am or 5:30am bus and getting getting off the bus under an hour later. (this is second hand info though). Also, he’d leave around 3:30 and beat the rush as well…
u looking at a house on the golf course?
SALTY No just trying to gauge commute times to pricing thru metro area.Didn’t have an idea from that point by bus.Thank you.
Ho-Ho-Kus
SLD 208 ACKERMAN AVE $985,000 11/4/2003
SLD 208 ACKERMAN AVE $990,000 11/9/2007
This NC battle cracks me up. Did an internship in Greensboro the summer after college and loved it (was in Raliegh every weekend).
Wife and I will very likely be taking a slight pay cut and moving to Bucks County PA in the coming months. You can get soooo much more house for so little, AND don’t ask about the neighbors – you’re on an acre, who cares!
About six months ago we were serious about moving to NJ … that was before my small blog business kinda took off and we realized how messed up the State of NJ is financially. The taxes … the way the state is run … man, it’s messed up. I know NJ folks are defensive, and that’s fine, but it certainly isn’t a state I’d want to settle down in.
#387 Rich Owned it for 5 years, and virtually no appreciation.
And of course all the interest paid on the mtg for 4 years and the property taxes, but hey they own!!
And renting does not make sense because why again?
3b,
And isn’t Ho-Ho-Kus a “prestigous” Bergen County NYC rail-town where prices won’t fall?
Rich
On the phone with one of the guys that report to me, had his truck broken into again for the 4th time in Charlotte… great place, great place…
Hans – I’ve had good luck with used cars – and had them checked out by a mechanic before I bought. I always look for a small shop with a crummy waiting room that looks like a dive and has been there forever. Those guys are the real mechanics and won’t rip you off – their business depends upon referrals. The shop I currently use is a dump that has a huge parrot cage in the waiting room and I wouldn’t trade it for anything. Also, get a book about basic car repairs just so you know the vocabulary and you’ll know to run when they tell you your glove box washer motor needs replacing.(I actually had a guy tell me that my brakes needed to be flushed. I cracked up!)
#367 Late Condo Fees..was on the condo board back in the late 80’s….sales prices falling through the 130’s through the 110’s and finally into the 90’s, combined with economic slow down, people started being late with fee payments or not at all, had to raise fees on remaining payers…what a mess…then people started renting out properties so the make up of the complex changed…..
Wife and I will never share walls with another family again (God willing!).
bath (388)-
Winston-Salem & Greensboro are both really nice towns. Much more to do in both than one would ever think. I lived in Winston-Salem for a year and had a total blast.
Only downside…constant treatment from the Wakies (me being a UNC alum).
For what it’s worth…
There’s some mis-information going on around here about cars…
1. If you don’t like to maintain something, lease it. Leased cars are notoriously unmaintained. Even if maintenance is included in the cost, most people drive it to 36K with 1 or 2 oil changes and trade it back in…should you buy a used car off lease? Only if you can verify svc records. Otherwise, look for something new/cheap or buy something used, but have it looked at by a mechanic first.
2. The mechanic: a LOT of people have a WALMART mentality with regards to auto repair. You want cheap? You’re gonna get #$% work. Would you bring a coupon to your cardiologist?
3. Look for an ASE MASTER mechanic. They are more likely to be doing this because they are passionate about repairing cars.
http://www.asecert.org
4. Forget dealerships. They hire people who were flipping burgers last week and have them replace “what’s most likely broken…” and the mechanics are paid flat rate. There is ZERO incentive to even open the hood on your car.
If your car has a problem that needs diagnosing, bring it to a small mom-pop shop. These guys live and die by word of mouth, not glossy 4 page adverts….
5. Brakes do need flushing. Just about NOTHING else does, though. In the industry, when you get a customer to pay for a flush of just about any fluid, we call it a wallet flush.
Brake fluid is hygroscopic and needs to be “flushed” or replaced about every 2 years. The cool thing is, when you get a brake job and the brakes are bled, you are getting new fluid in the master cylinder and that takes care of the fluid exchange.
For dear GOD don’t pay for a “FLUSH” of your trans, engine, brakes, P/S, etc… and no engine “motorvac” or other gimmicks…there is no benefit other than getting the shop between you and your money. You will find the big chains/dealers doing flushes to make up for lost revenue in otehr areas. You will not find small mom-pop shops who are wizards at auto repair doing flushes. They don’t have time. They are too busy making real repairs.
Days late … but nice work getting quoted in an AP story, grim. What do the other realtors say TO YOU about this blog?
And I’m surprised you don’t even have google ads on here … if you’re getting some decent visit #s daily, you can make some cigarette money
Not clear if this NY Times article was posted here before. but anyway, Bob Toll gave NYC burb the best grade while giving national market F, F- or F–
The best grade, B-plus, went to Toll’s “city living” apartment projects in the New Jersey suburbs of New York, while similar projects in the city received a B, as did Princeton, N.J., and the states of Delaware and Connecticut. The suburban New York counties of Dutchess and Putnam, which he views as one market, earned a C-plus.
Blame for Poor Home Sales? It’s the Press, a Builder Says
By FLOYD NORRIS
The housing market is horrible in most parts of the country, says the chief executive of the luxury home builder Toll Brothers, and he fears it will not get better until the newspapers stop saying how bad it is.
Toll Brothers, which has operations in 22 states, said yesterday that it expected to take a write-down of $250 million to $450 million because of declining land values when it reports results for the quarter that ended Oct. 31. The company said sales for the quarter fell 36 percent, to $1.17 billion, and that customers backed out of 39 percent of their orders, the highest rate ever.
Robert I. Toll, the chief executive, handed out grades for 37 markets that the company operates in, and most got a mark of F or worse.
“The fact that I differentiate between F, F-minus and F-minus-minus” shows just how bad things are, he told analysts during a conference call. He said those grades “go from miserable to outright purgatory.”
The lowest grade went to Las Vegas and Tampa, Fla.
“Perhaps as the presidential campaign heats up and moves to the front page, negative articles about housing will move off the front page,” he said. “Then, hopefully, the positive underpinnings of low interest rates, low unemployment and a decent economy will raise new-home-buyer confidence.”
The company said many of the canceled home purchases were for its more expensive homes. The average price of new orders in the quarter was $646,000, but the average price of canceled orders was $788,000.
He said a survey of Toll customers who canceled contracts showed that only 11 percent reported trouble getting mortgages. More either had personal financial problems or were unable to sell the homes they already owned. “People who just wanted to walk” accounted for 17 percent of the cancellations, he said.
“Translation, they’ve read one too many Times articles, and decided now is not the time to buy a home,” he said.
Nearly all the decent grades went to markets in and around New York City, while some of the worst grades were given to once-hot second-home markets.
The best grade, B-plus, went to Toll’s “city living” apartment projects in the New Jersey suburbs of New York, while similar projects in the city received a B, as did Princeton, N.J., and the states of Delaware and Connecticut. The suburban New York counties of Dutchess and Putnam, which he views as one market, earned a C-plus.
The F-minus grade went to the vacation communities of Hilton Head, S.C.; Palm Springs, Calif.; the Maryland shore; and the Poconos area of Pennsylvania, as well as to Michigan and Atlanta.
The F grade was the one most often given, going to Arizona, Massachusetts, Rhode Island, Minnesota and Southern California outside of Palm Springs. The cities of Chicago; San Antonio; Charlotte, N.C.; and Reno, Nev., got the same mark, as did the eastern and northern parts of Florida. Mr. Toll noted that Minnesota had improved to get its grade up to an F.
Another area that has improved, he said, was the western part of Florida, which moved up to a C, although he said that might reflect Toll’s aggressive price cuts. He also awarded C’s to the Texas cities of Austin and Dallas. Colorado got a C-minus.
Raleigh, N.C., fell to D-plus, while D’s were given to most of New Jersey and to Northern California, as well as to Washington and its Maryland suburbs, and the Philadelphia suburbs. D-minus was the grade for West Virginia and central Florida, including Orlando.
Mr. Toll said the downturn was worse than the one in the early 1990s, adding “the growth in the rate of cancellations, the decline in new contracts, and the weaknesses we observed in October suggest that we still have tough times ahead.”
#382,
Don’t even think about Monroe (exit 8A), unless you get to the park and ride at 5am, there’s no parking, traffic on the Turnpike is a nightmare, if the bus does downtown add another hour to your commute, the bus ticket will cost you $300+ and on weekends all the roads around are packed. Good luck.
Any inside on when Hovnanian will go bankrupt? 3 months, 6 or a year?
398#, not true. frank. friend of mine living in west windsor commutes to JPM in midtown daily from 8A. he arrives at the desk by 8:00 am so the traffic should not be a big problem in early hours. but it is worse between 8:00 to 9:00 am on the turnpike. since there is no express bus lane in front of holland tunnel, it will take 10 to 20 minutes longer on average to downtown.
re: 8A park and ride. you should have no promblem getting daily parking by 7:00 am. in addition, you can get monthly parking -that is what most commuter does.
#400,
A co-worker commutes from Monroe, it takes him 3 hours downtown. Exit 14 on the NJT will take you 20 minutes at 6:30am, forget Holland Tunnel.
402#, 3 hours? yes. a few times a year it happens to any commuters to nyc from nj. but 3 hours is definitely not norm. i used to commute to midtown, downtown, or jersey city from exit 9 (one exit before 8A but usually no traffic from 8A to 9) for more than 5 years so I know the situation well.
402#, i also used to take east coast corrider train to the city from new brunswick and found that bus commute is not all bad. why? it shots more frequently. if you missed one and you can ride the next in 5 minutes. but for train, you need to wait for another 20 minutes if you missed one. thus you have to budget 5 to 10 minutes more for the bottleneck to the train stations.
however, the bus is not so reliable if your job requires you to be at desk by exact time.
Bi, (403/404) when you say “I used to” how long ago was that?
405#, to NYC it was 3 years ago. to JC, it was just one year ago but i don’t think the situation changed dramatically since then.
It takes me 1 hour and 30 minutes and I am much closer and I avoid exit 14 and Holland Tunnel at 6:30am. If you factor the 2 above you got solid 2-3 hours commute downtown from your McMansion.
Frank, here is my point: the distance does not matter that much. the most time you spent is when you are near exit 14. if you take train, it takes only 5 to 10 minutes more from princeton junction to nyc than from westfield to nyc. for bus/driving, usuaaly there is no traffic before exit 11.
Hans, a car lease almost never makes sense, unless you can write it off as business expenses.
Hell, buy new and sell after using it if you really want that new car smell. The hit you take on depreciation will still be less than the amount you’ve paid on the lease. And the peace of mind of looking at the road ahead instead of the odometer every 5 miles so see how many mile you’ve clocked up is worth it. Also, the dealership has more chance to rip off people in a lease because there are so many places to play around with the figures.
Every car needs basic maintenance, such as an oil change, engine air filter and tire rotation. Follow the maintenance schedule on the owner manual for replacing coolant and transmission fluid. Flushes are a rip-off as some one mentioned earlier.
If buying used, have a mechanic inspect the car. See if the tires have even wear and how much longer the brake pads will last. Also, if the odometer is around the mark where you need a timing belt replaced, keep that $500 expense in mind when you negotiate the price.
Beware and read of things to come: I am so glad I kept a strong will and refused to cave in to scummy realtors rheoric.found this posted elsewhere.
================================================
Ugly mortgage market anecdotal: Miami, FL
I am renting a property in an area called Pinecrest, FL, about 12 miles due south of Miami proper. I chose to rent this house after seeing many properties in the area which were massively overpriced, and frankly were demo jobs. This is an ‘estate’ area with most properties of 1/2 acre or larger, and houses of 2400sq ft or more, mostly built in the 60’s and 70’s with plenty of fresh new mcmansions on the larger squares of land. Prices for these properties for sale in March and April were between $800K and $1.2M depending on how close to the water they were situated.
So, I engaged a one-year lease for 3K a month as of May. A few Saturdays ago, I was served notice that the owner of this house was being foreclosed upon because he had not made a single payment against his mortgage on this property since commencement of the note in Feb. Truth be told, I wasn’t surprised, as a quick check of the local property records had revealed that the house had sold to my land lord in the $700’s, so the guy had to be completely upside-down, not including taxes and insurance, which would add another $1K to the monthly overhead on the property.
The server was a young guy, and more than happy to talk with me, as he put it “Many people are so pissed they want to rip my face off.” He had a buddy who was running the beat with him, and was carrying in case things got out of hand. Turns out he had been running summons for the court for civil mortgage actions for over 18 months, and had seen his business pick up from 40-50 per month to over 300, and on this Saturday he had a sheaf that filled a few bulk paper boxes. He had already served 4 houses within 4 blocks of mine, and was working across the neighborhood with 2 more. So, in less than a 1/2 mile square, he had 7 notices of Lis Pendens to deliver.
I take long runs all over the area, and by August it was more obvious that ominous changes were occurring in the local real estate market. Some properties were vacant and falling into disrepair with long grass and citations jammed in the doorframe. There have been a few house fires, and minimal or no efforts have been made to recover those properties. Some properties have auction invitations on signs or clearly denote “Foreclosed”. A few Sundays ago I ran by a corner property with a painted sheet of plywood stating: “We must be out by tomorrow, everything is for sale!” as they packed their U-Haul.
One house that I have been watching for some time is 7272 SW 132St on an acre which is just a few blocks away. By late summer 2006 it was clear something had gone wrong and it had gone vacant, and in Jan07 the foreclosure sale signs were on the property. Now, Miami is a pretty neat place in that all real estate property records are on line, so it is pretty easy to get the scoop on the house: Property info at Miami-dade.gov as there is no tax exemption, this house was not used as a principle domicile, so in all likelihood it was purchased as an investment. Gotta love those taxes on a $2M property eh? Notice that Countrywide is the holder here. Poke around a little more in the property information and do a search on the owner, and voila, it looks like that hub&wife team own the first five properties on the list, and not cheap ones either.
Well, the house was attempted to auction this past July. Countrywide set the minimum at $1.6M, a reasonably steep discount. No bids. So I guess the bank owns the house now…. ouch.
I followed up with the plaintiffs’ attorney to see how quickly they were preparing action on my rental, and at what point they would accept short sale offers. Now this was interesting, because the paralegal actually told me that they would probably never get there, because the circuit court was so backed up on these actions that in order to shorten the backlog, they were ‘arbitrarily’ throwing houses to auction if the plaintiff could produce the note. She directed me to the Circuit Court of Miami web site (only plays well on IE), where I found all sorts of interesting foreclosure trend data!
Well, that kicked off an inquiry that I was unable to confirm, but I seem to remember somewhere reading that banks really want all possible contingencies played out before going to auction, because once the property rolls to auction, it must be considered a non-performing loan and thusly treated as such on the books. The article had been one of those consumer advisories talking about how to negotiate with the bank, as even after the 90 days of default they really don’t want to claim non-performance because it hurts their book. Anyway, if that is true, with Miami-Dade accelerating the auction process, a whole bunch of inventory is going to be classed non-performing and get the deserved accounting treatment all at once.
So, today, after reading more about how Wachovia and Morgan Stanley are eating it, I got to thinking about where these numbers were going and given that some parties keep talking up that financials are trending oversold (!?!), just how close could we be to a bottom? I called my real estate agent today and I might as well have been her therapist, she was letting it all hang out. “Market went terribly this summer, worst I can remember in 30 years! Usually May, June, July pick up, but we slid down into Sep. Nobody wants to buy, nobody is even looking, and those that do can’t get a loan without massive collateral!” On her invite, I poked around in Trendgraphix, and summoned up this lovely data matrix:
Date 7/06 8/06 9/06 10/06 11/06 12/06 1/07 2/07 3/07 4/07 5/07 6/07 7/07 8/07 9/07
For Sale 27563 28712 30077 31107 32258 31803 33436 34455 35798 36364 37820 38033 38672 39736 40689
Sold 1817 1753 1733 1617 1528 1596 1284 1355 1638 1460 1572 1474 1246 1112 773
Pended 1881 1962 1816 1951 1680 1397 1602 1727 1853 1519 1522 1420 1163 1142 874
Months of Inventory based on Closed Sales 15.2 16.4 17.4 19.2 21.1 19.9 26.0 25.4 21.9 24.9 24.1 25.8 31.0 35.7 52.6
Months of Inventory based on Pended Sales 14.7 14.6 16.6 15.9 19.2 22.8 20.9 20.0 19.3 23.9 24.8 26.8 33.3 34.8 46.6
Avg. Active Price 634 628 623 620 614 620 612 608 604 598 584 576 565 559 553
Avg. Sld Price 421 431 438 430 430 437 449 457 478 472 507 472 483 480 465
Avg. Sq. Ft. Price 269 280 279 262 267 274 269 279 298 298 320 291 300 275 269
Sold/List Diff. % 95 95 95 95 95 94 95 95 94 94 94 94 93 92 91
Days on Market 75 77 79 81 90 90 94 99 101 100 101 106 109 109 107
Median Price 312 300 307 305 310 322 320 325 315 301 330 320 309 309 310
Months of Inventory based on Closed Sales
7/06 8/06 9/06 10/06 11/06 12/06 1/07 2/07 3/07 4/07 5/07 6/07 7/07 8/07 9/07
15.2 16.4 17.4 19.2 21.1 19.9 26.0 25.4 21.9 24.9 24.1 25.8 31.0 35.7 52.6
Months of Inventory Based on Pended Sales
7/06 8/06 9/06 10/06 11/06 12/06 1/07 2/07 3/07 4/07 5/07 6/07 7/07 8/07 9/07
14.7 14.6 16.6 15.9 19.2 22.8 20.9 20.0 19.3 23.9 24.8 26.8 33.3 34.8 46.6
Well, that’s getting pretty damn ugly, and that data doesn’t include Lis Pendens properties, either. So ugly as it may be, it is getting worse but it is clear that the blood is not on the streets yet. Not even close. It really starts to look like a death spiral looking at those inventory numbers for Q3.
Final thoughts:
– In sports terms, we are more likely in the top of the second than the bottom of the seventh.
– Renters need to be extra especially careful now, because unscrupulous owners are happy to take that first, last and deposit and run, because it is theoretically impossible to get it back when the banks stop the music and take over the property
– As mortgages go bust so go municipal tax revenues. Services are going to take a hit and some unfortunate places are going to go insolvent (and so go their bonds)
– Banks will be barfing on inventory if they are being forced to auction, and unable to sell because of their own liquidity issues restricting buyers
– Only entities that can self-finance can really come to the table to buy properties, and one would think anybody that savvy is smart enough to use their liquidity to short the banks and brokers: that little extra shove
Sorry to clutter this energy board with this but it seems relevant in the grand scheme of things. Thank you for your time and have a pleasant weekend.
BTW, two gas stations here were out of gas – completely empty. Prices range in the 3.15 – 3.20 for reg, 3.30-3.40 for
Bloodbath in Hoboken…
Not too long ago these places were going for 800K+, now there are down to $500K and still overpriced.
http://homes.realtor.com/search/listingdetail.aspx?zp=07030&ml=3&bd=4&typ=7&sid=a82e2781ab324ef1adc549cc3c6e8bba&lid=1083255282&lsn=3&srcnt=113#Detail
#395 The car was older than the mechanic and we used DOT 5 (silicone) brake fluid which is not hygroscopic. Trying to find a connection between this and NJ real estate but just can’t. Sorry, Grim.
How many posters named Bi/bi are there?
bi [397],
Toll’s grades are for HIS projects/investments in the nation and markets, not the overall market.
Rich
This NC battle cracks me up. Did an internship in Greensboro the summer after college and loved it (was in Raliegh every weekend).
Me too.
I know NJ folks are defensive, and that’s fine, but it certainly isn’t a state I’d want to settle down in.
You say this as you compare it to Mitchell’s offerings? The idea of ‘guns drawn foreclosures/boarded up neighborhoods/emergency water restrictions due to rampant overbuilding’ utopia that awaits doesn’t seem very tempting.
And the Confederate flag flying on state house grounds in Columbia does send a message…
From the APP:
Home-equity loans tighten
Back when the real estate market was flying at 30,000 feet, getting a home-equity line of credit was a pretty straightforward process. You called a toll-free number, asked for a loan, and within hours, a guy with a suitcase full of money showed up at your door.
It’s a lot harder now. Some lenders have stopped offering home-equity lines of credit and home-equity loans altogether, even to borrowers with good credit. And lenders that still offer the loans are being a lot more selective.
The lenders that have cut back on home-equity loans and credit lines are mainly those that raise money by selling the loans to investors. Investors have stopped buying such mortgages since the subprime market collapsed, says Bob Walters, chief economist for Quicken Loans, which has stopped offering home-equity loans or lines of credit.
Walters says investors have backed away from second mortgages for the same reason they’ve abandoned jumbo mortgages (those that exceed $417,000). Because investment mortgage giants Freddie Mac and Fannie Mae won’t buy jumbos or second mortgages, these loans are considered riskier than so-called conforming loans.
But just as community and national banks are offering jumbo loans, many banks, savings and loans and credit unions are still providing home-equity loans and credit lines, says Keith Gumbinger, vice president for HSH Associates, a Pompton Plains-based publisher of mortgage information.
These lenders typically use customer deposits to finance loans, so they’re not beholden to Wall Street, he says.
Still, these lenders are unwilling to take big risks with their money, especially in this environment. The Federal Deposit Insurance Corp. said last week that delinquent home-equity lines of credit – those late by 90 days or more — jumped 16.6 percent in the second quarter.
From the APP:
Dwek loses cars; home may be next
It’s a hard-knock life for Solomon Dwek.
The monthly $12,700 allowance he receives from U.S. Bankruptcy Court is less than half of what he says he’s worth.
The bankrupt 35-year-old real estate mogul has long since stopped paying $13,200 in monthly mortgage payments on his Ocean Township home. One lender now wants to foreclose on it.
Last week, three of Dwek’s four luxury cars were seized to be auctioned.
Dwek hasn’t bought an $800 suit in a year-and-a-half. Now, between trips to Florida and a luxury resort in Arizona, he picks up $13 dress shirts at T.J. Maxx.
Dwek, who is also facing federal bank fraud charges, is on a comparatively tight leash these days.
The son of an esteemed rabbi to the wealthy Deal-area Syrian Jewish community, Dwek built an empire of some 350 properties, once worth perhaps half a billion dollars. It rose with a spasm of borrowing and buying, but many investors and lenders claim in court papers they lost their money to Dwek in a mountain of lies and fraud.
Dwek is free on $10 million bond, accused of defrauding PNC Bank with a bad $25 million check he deposited last year. Now he spends his days helping his bankruptcy trustee unravel and liquidate his complex web of commercial debt and high-interest loans on commercial and residential holdings in seven states.
But the sales have not gone well.
The red-hot residential housing sector that fueled Dwek’s spree is on ice, and commercial property values are showing signs of a slowdown. Dwek paid top dollar for many of his properties, and their value has sunk with the market.
“He was the canary in the coal mine,” said Gerard Cassidy, a banking analyst with RBC Capital Markets, a global investment bank. “He was the first large-scale developer in the mid-Atlantic region to have financial problems in the residential real estate market in a period when most people were not aware of the problems that were coming. Too many speculators got involved, lending standards were reduced far too much, and that led to the collapse in housing that we have today.”
Private Mortgage Insurance (PMI)
MGIC, PMI Group and Other Private Mortgage Insurers Dragged Down As Delinquencies Rise
MILWAUKEE (AP) — As the housing market crumbles, homeowners are worried about mortgage payments and sellers are worried about slumping prices — but the companies that insure their loans are worrying about their very survival in the face of billions of dollars in claims.
Insurers like industry leader MGIC Investment Corp. are predicting they won’t turn a profit for at least a year. The uncertainty has sent their stocks plunging and raised questions about what happens if so many loans go bad that the insurers behind them go out of business.
In the short term, regulators and analysts say they aren’t concerned about the biggest insurers staying in business.
“We’re not worried about it today. You can ask us tomorrow. It may change. But right now, it’s not a high priority,” said Gail Madziar, spokeswoman for the Michigan Bankers Association.
And at least one competitor is making a big bet on the industry’s survival. Shares of MGIC and PMI Group Inc. surged Friday after mortgage insurer Old Republic International Corp. disclosed in a Securities and Exchange Commission filings that it had accumulated a 15 percent stake in PMI Group and an 11 percent stake in MGIC.
Bankers know that insurers have cash reserves, often a threshold set by the individual states, and find mortgage insurance to be the least of their worries now, said Madzair. Instead, they just want to make sure they’re giving loans to people who can afford them, she added.
Most mortgage lenders typically require home buyers to pay for mortgage insurance when they put down less than 20 percent of their home’s value. Payouts to the lenders are triggered when borrowers miss payments on home loans. And with falling home prices, it’s becoming less likely that delinquent buyers can sell their homes and pay off their loans.
If the insurers do run into trouble, the risks for the industry are huge. About 10 percent of the total loan market has private mortgage insurance, according to the Mortgage Insurance Companies of America. There was $776 billion in private mortgage insurance in force as of September, the trade group reported.
MGIC, which has $196.6 billion in policies written, is confident it can pay even though it figures it won’t return to profitability until at least 2009. So far this year, MGIC has paid out $586 million in claims and expects to pay out $875 million for the full year.
Next year, claim payouts are expected to rise to between $1.2 billion and $1.5 billion, roughly doubling the $611 million paid in losses in 2006.
“These are big numbers,” said Michael Zimmerman, vice president of investor relations. “Obviously we’ll pay out large numbers but we’re receiving money at the same time. We don’t anticipate losing a billion dollars.”
The company, like others, can decline to cover certain types of loans, including those to buyers with lower credit scores, or some that represent 95 percent or more of a home’s value, Zimmerman said.
PMI Group saw its quarterly U.S. claims rise 49 percent to $92.6 million. And the insurer Radian Group Inc. posted a loss of $703.9 million in the third quarter after getting hit by writedowns and losses at a subprime mortgage joint venture with MGIC.
The industry’s woes pressured MGIC to back out of a deal to buy Philadelpia-based Radian in September. The companies saw mounting losses in their joint venture and figured it was in each other’s best interest to concentrate on staying afloat.
Radian chief executive officer S.A. Ibrahim likened the turmoil to “an industrywide scramble to survive.”
The whole industry will most likely continue to lose money next year, break even by 2009 and possibly return to profit the following year, said Geoffrey M. Dunn, an analyst with Keefe, Bruyette & Woods. Even with those losses, the insurers should have enough in reserves to survive. He estimated MGIC has access to about $2 billion in capital to pay out claims.
“I think these companies are very well capitalized. At this point, I don’t see any of these companies going under,” he said.
As losses mount at the insurers, though, investors have suffered. MGIC shares are down 66 percent this year, PMI shares are off 69 percent and Radian shares are down 77 percent.
But Wall Street was buoyed Friday by the Old Republic news. PMI Group’s stock jumped $3.77, or 34 percent, to $14.88 and shares of MGIC rose $2.94, or 16 percent, to $21.30. Sares of Radian Group increased $2.42, or 24 percent, to $12.62.
Shares of Old Republic initially slipped to their lowest level in more than four years before recovering. The stock rose 90 cents, or 6 percent, to $15.07.
“The sentiment has been so poor on mortgage insurance and the data keeps coming out worse than the last time it came out,” said Thane Bublitz, an equity analyst for Thrivent Investment Management Inc. “That’s a hard environment for these stocks to gain any positive momentum.”
But he thinks the companies will survive, too, because of the extra cash they’ve stored in their reserves. And they’ll have to make shifts in their business, Bublitz said, such as charging more for certain types of loans, as MGIC plans to do.
Several analysts noted an upside to the crisis, though — more business as consumers and lenders seek to get more loans insured. The total number of policies written through September this year was up 41 percent to 1,498,132, from the same period last year, the industry’s trade group reported.
A message to readers:
It is not a buyers market. It is not a fantastic buying opportunity. Prices of homes in Northern New Jersey are still ridiculously over-priced.
I’m a two time homeowner of many years and have experienced every sales pitch, mantra and snake oil trick in the book. Do not fall for the gimmicks, tricks and tactics of the Real Estate industry. Their purpose is to sell you something and paint a rosy picture using selective details.
DO NOT BUY THESE HOUSES IF YOU’RE NOT FORCED TO MOVE!! Don’t be the sucker who funds someone elses lifestyle. These prices are still at insulting levels and the sellers need to get the stars out of their eyes.
Educate yourself. Be an informed buyer and don’t lower yourself to the level of the sellers. If they didn’t fund their retirement, it’s not your fault.
confused (418)
Thanks for that piece on an oft-overlooked- and little understood- corner of the housing market.
These PMI guys are huge players now in determining underwriting guidelines and who does and doesn’t get a loan. The first thing that happened when the credit crunch hit in August was a complete overhaul of the PMI industry’s minimum qualification requirements. It is now not uncommon to see deals fall apart that a lender might want to do…yet, the PMI insurers deem the applicant’s FICO too low to insure.
No doubt that as the PMI insurers refine their approach, we’ll see skyrocketing premiums for sketchy borrowers. This will further depress access to credit for the subprime crowd.
One thing for sure: these PMI guys always collect, no matter what.
gary (419)-
This one’s for you…the Howard Beale speech, from Network:
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=dib2-HBsF08
#417,
The first thing Solomon Dwek has to cut back is food, maybe he’ll slim down now that he’s broke.
Does anyone know months supply in Bergen Country right now? Thanks!
#418,
PMI is a small piece of their business, they have insured billions of CDOs and invested the premiums in the same CDOs. What a move. Few of them will be gone sometime next year.
This week listings are going up in Norther NJ and going down in Southern NJ.
Contracts on beach homes must be expiring and no one wants to go down there and re-new them.
#423,
It’s 12+ and going up, since sales are way down.
Ann,
Otteau Report Q3 – Bergen County Composite
Total Market – 9 months (up from 8)
Less than $600k – 8 months (up from 6)
$600k-$1m – 9 months (down from 11)
$1m-$2.5m = 14 months (flat)
$2.5+ – 23 months (up from 18)
Say what you want but Ron Paul is shaking things up…
http://www.nytimes.com/2007/11/11/us/politics/11paul.html?_r=1&oref=slogin
Are people really this stupid? If incomes rise at the rate of inflation, about 3% and houses rise at 10% over the last 6 or 7 years then what conclusion can you draw?
This was a scam of grand proportions. Wannabe con men are shaking their heads in disbelief of the pure genius of these shysters. He would’ve thought they could conceive a switch of this magnitude?
Buyers, think about it; you’re being bilked. The sellers are the pawn, they don’t know any better. They simply have the vehicle that the swindlers use to lift your money. You’re buying a dead asset and they’ve left town before you can realize you’ve been had.
What’s the differnce between this and some internet scam or someone simply holding a gun to your head? You think I’m exaggerating? Ask the 1,700,000 homeowners who are facing ARM resets over the next 14 months if I’m exaggerating.
Gary,
1. Inflation is not 3%, the government is laying to you, it’s more like 10%
2. People that bought homes with no money down are geniuses, the ones that have lend them the money are the dumb one. Think of it like going to Vegas with someone else’s money if you loose ohhh well, if you win you keep it.
Frank,
The lenders are the bookies and anyone knows anything about gambling will tell you that the bookies never lose. Ever.
430
Ridiculous.
more later…
Gary I’m sure sure you have seen chart on resets as they will go down 09 & then go back up to almost same level 2010 2011.Think we have to wait that long for crash or will this year do it.
re: (417)
Grim,
He was his own bubble on the market, and it burst.
Great coverage of this fraudster by the Asbury Park Press.
http://www.app.com/special/dwek/
Below is an email I received from a home owner looking to sell their Tinton Falls home at “below market value” (the new catch phrase for Realtors and the like). Even though these prices are well beyond what I can afford at the moment, I figured to inquire so I could develop a background on their situation and see what kind of mess they’re in. A couple of things jump out here; for “being in the mortgage industry” I’m appalled that she is trying to pawn off a 1yr old appraisal and more importantly her scope of the declining market seems to be gravely underestimated. I did a quick search on the phone number she had left with me and it turns out to be a number for Argent Mortgage which was purchased by Citi earlier this year. My conclusion: The high paying sub-prime account executive commissions of the go go days of 2005 allowed her to buy this home in the mid 500’s and as the housing market continues to reel so follows income, home, etc. It’s really an unfortunate regression for individuals and the industry as a whole but a valuable lesson for the future.
This is the house: http://cnj.craigslist.org/rfs/464901840.html
“Red Bank is 8-10 minutes away if you’re familiar with that area, the exact location of this house is exit 105 off the Garden State parkway. The house is also listed with a realtor right now but I have worked something out with them for the first month If I sell the house on my own, they dont get thje commissions. Its been about 3 weeks. (so I have a week or so left to offer at 680K) If you were to go thru the realtor its listed at 714,900.00. Thats a lot more than 680,000.00 which is what I want to sell. The house has two appraisals from last year (November) for 760,000.00. Even with the decline in market my house is easily worth 730,000.00. So you can see at 714,900.00 it is really priced to sell but I am willing to sell at 680,000.00. I am in the Mortgage Industry so I knew if I price it to sell I will sell my house pretty quickly. Also I am willing to do your mortgage and offer a rate that no one will be able to match because I am an Account Executive for the wholesale side as a perk.
Taxes are around 11,000. and the commute to NYC is an hour. There is a train station too if you weren’t looking to drive but to drive is an hour into mid town”
I just took a look into this “Below Market” home in Tinton Falls.
10 Taylors Run in the Woodmere Estates development. Was purchased new in May of 2005 for $644,380 (there may be some design center upgrades that are paid for “off contract”).
It was re-fi’d in Jan ’07 for $684K. Thus the reference to the Nov ’06 appraisal at $760K….hey, what a coincidence, a $760K appraisal gives them a 90% LTV on the re-fi.
The MLS Listing mentions also available for rent, and possible $10K concession for closing. Oh, and taxes are not “around $11K”, they are $12,297 and rising fast in Tinton Falls.
There are several models with various square footages in this development, so do your due diligence on this one.
nice work fiddy, thank you.
Are people really this stupid? If incomes rise at the rate of inflation, about 3% and houses rise at 10% over the last 6 or 7 years then what conclusion can you draw?
Gary [429],
Yes, they are that stupid. Incomes rise at 3-4% but retail inflation is up approx 10-12%.
Conclusions? Unprecendented leverage and debt, conceived by fraud, lies, greed/fear and deceit. The pigs created a mammoth pen and the brainless took a leap of faith. Presently, this staggering financial bust, will be the largest in US history, is currently starting to unwind. End result? It will be uglier than a Pisarcik to Csonka hand off.
Donations from the general public will be graciously accepted. Please give soon, year end audits are forthcoming.
“U.S. Banks Reach Agreement on SIV Backup Fund, N.Y. Times Says”
http://www.bloomberg.com/apps/news?pid=20601087&sid=alH61hTFT.9w&refer=home
Thanks! ~Ann
#439………….Yes, they are that stupid.
Preach it BC….you’ve converted me….this is direct result of the FOR SALE mentality of the US government and the hand of the banking industry in providing Usery services to the poor and misinformed….the government needn’t protect it’s citizens…..but now watch the result….it will be brutal on a scale that we might not imagine. But BC…the big question….how bad????? Recession. Most likely….but will we see a D-epression??? Scary, definitely.
#391 Rich: And of course it has a charming down town.
Lots of talk about commute times in this discussion.
Quickest commute between Midtown Manhattan and New Jersey is 6 minutes. That is how long it takes to get to Weehawken going outbound on the 123, 125, 156, and 159 buses, one of which departs Port Authority Bus Terminal every few minutes. Takes a little longer going in.
Get off at first stop, Park Avenue and North Marginal Road. Trip consistently takes me 6 minutes when I return home each night, although I usually catch the bus between 7pm and 8pm.
http://www.njtransit.com/pdf/bus/T0159.pdf
Seeking Alpha:
Fannie Mae’s Housing Forecast Seems Too Optimistic
http://seekingalpha.com/article/53689-fannie-mae-s-housing-forecast-seems-too-optimistic
BC Bob 439,
Great post. BTW, I was at that game… Edwards ran it in running towards us. I was in section 319 and on the way out of the stadium, a guy took a garbage can and tossed it on the field. It was an ugly scene after that game.
Oh, and to the sellers demanding that their realtor reps hold open houses today…. f*ck you. You’re house is a dump and it smells. Drop your price at least 20%.
mikeinwaiting 434,
I don’t know how long it will take, my friend. Logic wins out in the end, just keep preaching the word.
447 Gary
I preach but they don’t listen. I am dreading to see what will happen to them a year from now.
WASHINGTON (MarketWatch) — California is on the edge of recession, economists say. Or perhaps the nation’s most populous state is already in one.
“California seems to be sliding into recession,” wrote Jan Hatzius, chief economist for Goldman Sachs, in a research note earlier this week. Hatzius based his appraisal on the sharp increase in the unemployment rate in the state from 4.7% in November 2006 to 5.6% in September 2007.
While a 5.6% jobless rate may seem low, the important thing is how much it’s risen. Hatzius said any increase of more than 0.6 percentage points in California’s unemployment rate has always been associated with a national recession.
http://tinyurl.com/3de6vm
Hi guys, could i trouble someone to find out info on MLS#10101768 (Spring Lake)?
Thanks!
curiousd
From the WSJ:
HSBC Is Expected to Increase
Reserves for Subprime Defaults
By CARRICK MOLLENKAMP
November 11, 2007 4:00 p.m.
HSBC Holdings PLC’s U.S. consumer lending unit is likely to announce this week that it will increase the money it sets aside for souring subprime mortgage loans, according to analysts who follow the British bank.
On Wednesday, HSBC Finance Corp.’s third-quarter report could show that the consumer-lending business has had to increase its reserves because of increased deterioration in the U.S. subprime and housing markets, Lehman Brothers analysts Robert Law and Raul Sinha said in a recent report. The report will be closely watched because HSBC Finance is one of the biggest subprime mortgage lenders in the U.S. The unit also provides auto loans and credit cards, two sectors that are being closely watched to see if borrower defaults have increased.
HSBC, in a 2003 expansion in U.S. banking, acquired lender Household International Inc. It renamed the unit HSBC Finance Corp. with hopes of using the business and its technology to expand in the U.S. and globally.
Late in 2006, however, HSBC Finance began to notice increasing delinquencies for mortgages it had acquired. Those mortgages, largely originated in 2005 and 2006, would ultimately force the bank to increase bad-debt costs in February. HSBC spokespersons declined to comment before the results on Wednesday.
curious d-
MLS#10101768- Spring Lake
500 Prospect Ave.
lot 25 block 1.1
Original list price-3/06-$819,000
Present list price-$749,000
Last sale- 2/19/99- $295,000
Property taxes- $4,740
If you check the Monmouth County clerks site you will see there is a forclosure lis pendens on this property.
I just chec
NJ coast. Thanks so much! Couldnt figure out where the heck it could be (small town).
Thx
NJcoast, thanks. VERY helpful.
Curiousd-
Spring Lake is one of the most affluent towns on NJ shore. Located in eastern Monmouth County it boasts several oceanfront homes. There are presently 8 homes for sale over $5 million with the highest priced $10,995,000. There are currently 68 active listings on the MLS.
In the last 5 years many stately oceanfront homes were purchased for multi millions $$ and torn down to be replaced by mega McMansions.
On July 14, 2007 a home closed for $9,350,000.
Rising cost of crude oil pushes prices higher on a slew of consumer products
Bernanke and Co. better wake up soon.
http://www.marketwatch.com/news/story/costly-crude-fuels-price-hikes/story.aspx?guid=%7BBB5FACF8%2DDF6E%2D4E7F%2DA19F%2DE9F952002268%7D
http://www.newsday.com/news/specials/ny-enreal-gallery,0,5771997.storygallery
I love that Newsday had its cover page today about the RE Crash, numerous pages devoted to it with great charts. About time papers start to scare everyone.
Went to short sale today, 650K mortgage and house is on market for an approved 385K, owner already out, bank is selling with out the foreclosure process. House was a mess inside but it was on a block where all the homes are 580K, so that is 200K below the houses on the block. Ouch. Relator told me she has 10 just like it in nearby neighborhoods. I am smelling freefall!
njcoast, thx again. yes, getting familiar still with So. Monmouth, but like the area. SL is crazy expensive though. this one is basically on the railroad tracks…figures.
#445, 448
i’ve been looking down in MC since last may, prices have come down a tad but still frustrated with the avg price of inventory.
This report may be skewed. I was one of the 500 participants that they interviewed. They sent me $5.00 and they received an abundance.
“Their view on current economic conditions has been lower only once during the past 15 years –when the United States invaded Iraq in 2003, according to a survey released Friday by Reuters and the University of Michigan.”
http://www.marketwatch.com/news/story/consumers-danger-zone-worry/story.aspx?guid=%7B56B42DEA%2DDB07%2D4957%2D9374%2D0EAEC41357A0%7D
BC (439)-
Another first here: a Jersey Joe Pisarcik reference.
I think I’m so immersed in coaching soccer that I can’t enjoy football- at any level- anymore. In a way, football is like RE; you go out, execute a mechanical, conservative plan…go 10-6…then take your chances in the lightning round. I got home tonight just in time to see Eli sucking the pipe for the umpteenth time, and now I get to watch Peyton melt down in prime time. Ultimately, I just don’t care about any of these players or teams (except maybe the Pats, and the way they’ve immediately made being nasty and unsportsmanlike fashionable). No current NFL player transcends his ability- or role- in any way, shape or form. There are no Walter Paytons, and there are no more Lombardis to coach them. The NFL is rife with middle managers, and in that way, it reflects the mediocrity of our times (as well as the way in which all of us- just like NFL teams- possess precious little in the way of real capital and must spend what little we have sparingly on players who make no impact, as opposed to players who take risks and lead).
The Euro is whipping our ass, and soccer is worming its way- permanently- into American life. Face your opponent, outwit him, outrun him, then shake his hand. Much as we resent it, the game is simple and guileless…and, the players themselves aren’t separated from the audience by a ton of pads and facemasks.
The kabuki is over.
Eli sucking the pipe for the umpteenth time
Mentioning Eli before any reference of the defense seems like the definition of scapegoating.
Re: transcendence
Pick #199
2000 NFL Draft
BCBob, can you Fedex some Sake out to Japan…..Yen below 110.
“the players themselves aren’t separated from the audience by a ton of pads and facemasks.”
Clot, time for rugby perhaps?
Dream, you beat me to it.
Nothing like rugby.
Asian markets getting beat up tonight.
Nikkei down 543 3.5%
I played rugby. Great way to keep fit and sportsmanship is still important in the game. Watched several World Cup games at Mulligan’s in Hoboken. One thing that remains absent from US sport is meaningful international cups.
There are several decent men’s rugby cluss in New Jersey, but US game is centered in California. Would be great to see US host World Cup eventually, but no way rugby overtakes football in this country. That is because tradition and culture still matter in sport.
Ok, this may be a dumb question, but in this environment do you think the independent mortgage brokers are hurting? I only ask this because someone suggested I get in to the business but I am suspicious. Thanks
Uh Grimm
It’s 6AM monday morning. I am still seeing the weekend discussion! Slacker!
KL
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