October Existing Home Sales

From Bloomberg:

U.S. October Existing Home Sales Fall 1.2% to 4.97 Million Rate

Sales of previously owned U.S. homes fell in October to the lowest level in at least eight years as loan restrictions and the prospect of further price declines deterred buyers.

Purchases dropped 1.2 percent, more than forecast, to an annual rate of 4.97 million, the fewest since record keeping began in 1999, from a 5.03 million September pace, the National Association of Realtors said in Washington. Sales were down 20.7 percent from October 2006 and the median home price declined by the most on record.

Defaults on subprime mortgages have prompted banks to tighten lending standards, while foreclosures add to a glut of unsold properties that’s putting pressure on home prices. Lower property values raise the risk that consumers will curtail spending, making businesses more cautious about investing and compounding a slowdown in economic growth, economists said.

“Credit conditions seem to be getting tighter again, the economy is likely to slow and falling prices may be causing people to wait before buying,” David Sloan, senior economist at 4Cast Inc. in New York, said before the report. “There is plenty of downside left in this market.”

From MarketWatch:

Supply of homes on market at 22-year high
Existing-home sales fall 1.2% to 4.97 million pace in October

Sales of existing homes fell further in October even as more homes came on the market, driving the supply of homes to the highest level in 22 years, the National Association of Realtors reported Wednesday.

Sales dropped 1.2% to a 4.97 million seasonally adjusted annualized pace in October, the real estate advocacy group said. The sales pace is the lowest since 1999, when the group began tracking combined sales of single-family homes and condos.

Sales are down 20.7% in the past year and are down 31% from the peak of 7.21 million two years ago.
October sales were stronger than the 4.85 million pace expected by economists surveyed by MarketWatch.
The inventory of unsold homes rose by 1.9% to 4.45 million, representing a 10.8 month supply, the highest since1999.

For single-family homes alone, the inventory of 10.5 months is the highest since July 1985.
The median sales price fell 5.1% in the past year to $207,800. That’s the largest year-over-year price decline ever recorded.

From CNBC:

Home Sales, Prices Fell Further In October

The pace of U.S. existing home sales in the United States fell 1.2 percent in October to
a record low 4.97 million-unit pace, the National Association of Realtors said, amid a nationwide credit crunch and a spike in failing home loans.

The median existing home price of $207,800 was a decline of 5.1 percent from a year ago, a record drop.

The sales pace was the lowest since the realty trade group began tracking both single-family and condo sales jointly in 1999.

From the National Association of Realtors:

Existing-Home Sales and Prices Overview (PDF)

This entry was posted in Economics, Housing Bubble, National Real Estate. Bookmark the permalink.

310 Responses to October Existing Home Sales

  1. grim says:

    From Bloomberg:

    Wolseley Will Cut 1,300 U.S. Jobs as Profit Drops 15%

    Wolseley Plc, the world’s biggest distributor of plumbing and heating equipment, plans to cut 1,300 jobs in the U.S. in its fiscal second quarter as the worst housing recession for 16 years hurts profit.

    The reduction will bring the total number of U.S. job cuts over 1 1/2 years to 9,000 as Wolseley closes depots. Fiscal first- quarter pretax profit through October fell almost 15 percent as a weaker dollar and fewer housing starts led to a 10 percent decline in U.S. revenue, the Reading, England-based company said today.

    Wolseley, which gets half its sales in North America through its Stock Building Supply and Ferguson plumbing units, forecast the U.S. housing market will deteriorate further. The company already cut 6,000 jobs in its last financial year and the planned reductions for the first half should generate annual savings of 60 million pounds ($124 million), it said today.

    “This is at the very extreme of our worse-case scenario and 2008 will get worse,” said Paul Checketts, an analyst at Oriel Securities in London, who rates the stock “hold.” “The cuts announced today are the bare minimum. If this recession proves to be really deep, we can expect significantly more restructuring.”

  2. grim says:

    From the Record:

    Home prices drop again

    Home prices in the region have dropped, but not as much as national averages, according to a report released Tuesday.

    Prices in the New York metropolitan area, which includes North Jersey, fell 3.6 percent in the 12 months ended in September, according to a report from Standard & Poor’s Case-Shiller Index.

    In another report released Tuesday, the U.S. Conference of Mayors said the housing downturn will seriously hinder the economy in 2008, with the New York metropolitan area losing an estimated $10 billion in economic output. Nationwide, gross domestic product will lose an estimated $166 billion in growth because of cutbacks in home construction and consumer spending, the mayors’ report said. In addition, the report estimated that there will be 524,000 fewer jobs created across the nation than would otherwise have been generated.

    The report echoed the views of many housing analysts, who say prices have further to fall in 2008, as homeowners face higher payments on their adjustable rate mortgages. Many of these homeowners will be unable to afford the higher payments and be forced to sell their homes or even go into foreclosure.

    “Many house shoppers are going to hold off until they feel that markets have stabilized, and this will tend to prolong the price declines,” said Robert Dye, a senior economist at PNC Financial Services Group in Philadelphia.

  3. Pat says:

    Florida School Fund Rocked by $8 Billion Pullout Amid Defaults

    “…The disclosures followed a month of inquiries by Bloomberg News to Florida officials.”
    http://www.bloomberg.com/apps/news?pid=20601087&sid=aSkgscULJ6Tk&refer=home

    Geez, maybe it is all the negative press that’s causing housing prices to drop. ;)

  4. mikeinwaiting says:

    Let’s see how are friends at the NAR paint a happy face on the numbers today.At what point do these people lose all credibility.Does anyone in media ever take them to task.Its a joke.Does any one know who owns koolaid brand,I
    want to buy stock sales must be great.

  5. grim says:

    From Reuters:

    U.S. mortgage applications dropped last week-MBA

    Applications for U.S. home mortgages fell last week as rates on some adjustable loans soared to their highest levels in more than two months, according to data from an industry group on Wednesday.

    The Mortgage Bankers Association said its seasonally adjusted index of mortgage application activity declined 4.3 percent to 652.5 in the week ended Nov. 23.

    The MBA’s seasonally adjusted index of refinancing applications fell 15.3 percent to 1,862.9 last week. The index measuring loan requests for home purchases rose 6.1 percent to 450.1 in the week, the MBA said.

  6. Homer says:

    So a funny listing on the GSMLS. Not that I could ever afford to live in Westfield but I was looking and came across a funny listing
    MLS Number: 2413349
    The remarks state:

    Remarks: BUY THIS CAR & GET A HOME!.
    Its a hideous green BMW. Talk about desperate…Its used and its a BMW. LOL I guess they don’t have the money to buy the future home buyers a new car or SUV

    I would rather keep those puppies in the last picture

  7. grim says:

    From the AP:

    Wells Fargo Plunges Into Mortgage Muck

    After avoiding major trouble most of the year, Wells Fargo & Co. has finally bogged down in the mortgage muck that’s muddying one major bank after another.

    Wells Fargo, the fifth-largest U.S. bank, waded into the mess by saying it will recognize $1.4 billion in losses in the fourth quarter on home equity loans that aren’t being repaid as the real estate slump deepens in California, the Midwest and other major markets.

    Until Wells Fargo’s disclosure late Tuesday, the San Francisco-based bank had been largely unscathed by the turmoil that has battered a long list of other major lenders.

    “Clearly, this is a disappointment because (Wells) had been seen as better managers of credit than many other big banks,” said RBC Capital Markets analyst Joseph Morford. “But now they have a big blemish on them, too.”

  8. bi says:

    Guys, this is big news. It was the Thanksgiving week and the mortgage application for purchase was up 6% even rates on adjustable loans increased. Apparently people were rushing to lock in fixed rates, which were down half to 1 percent from their high in August.

    > The MBA’s seasonally adjusted index of refinancing applications fell 15.3 percent to 1,862.9 last week. The index measuring loan requests for home purchases rose 6.1 percent to 450.1 in the week, the MBA said.

  9. grim says:

    Homer,

    The unit next door, 246, is virtually identical (actually, listed at 2 baths vs 1.1) and selling for $20,000 less.

    Which would you pick?

  10. BC Bob says:

    bi,

    This is bigger news. Sorry, no link.

    Did You Notice? – Freddie Falters and Countrywide Cringes
    By Brian McAuley and Mike Shedlock

    What happens when Freddie Mac tries to repair its crippled balance sheet? Well, for one thing, the government-sponsored basket-case buys fewer mortgages from folks like Countrywide Financial. And if Freddie stops buying, Countrywide stops lending. That’s how a crisis becomes a contagion and a contagion becomes a disaster.

    Last week’s earnings news from Freddie Mac was nothing short of terrifying. The giant lender posted a $2 billion loss, which was three times what analysts had expected, and also disclosed that it needed to raise more capital to meet regulatory requirements. In order to raise that capital, Freddie proposed cutting its dividend by 50%. That news sent Freddie’s stock down almost 30%.

    But while the market seemed fixated on the dividend news, the far more important news went largely unnoticed. If market conditions continue to deteriorate and the dividend cut fails to raise enough capital to meet regulatory requirements, Freddie says it will consider slowing purchases in its mortgage portfolio .

    Whoa! That is a very big deal for the housing market. Ever since the secondary market for mortgage-backed securities dried up over the summer, Freddie Mac and Fannie Mae have been the reliable and counter-cyclical sources of liquidity that have kept a pulse going in the mortgage market. Now Freddie is telling us that if conditions continue to deteriorate, it may have to purchase fewer mortgages, effectively making fewer mortgages available to the largest segment of the mortgage market.

    This is earthshaking news, because up to this point, even as the availability of nonconforming mortgages (jumbo loans, no-doc loans, interest-only loans, and various adjustable-rate products) became scarce, there was some comfort in knowing that Freddie and Fannie would always be there to buy standard, full-documentation loans for amounts less that $417,000.

    However, if Freddie and Fannie were forced to curtail their purchasing of mortgages, this would take even more homebuyers out of the market by restricting the availability of even standard conforming mortgages.

    It’s no surprise, therefore, that Countrywide shares also declined on the news and still remain close to their lows for the year. In fact, bankruptcy rumors continue to dog Countrywide. (However, the giant mortgage lender continues to insist that it possesses “ample liquidity and capital and will be a beneficiary of ongoing mortgage market consolidation.”)

    Whatever the actual case may be, Countrywide can no longer sell mortgage-backed bonds to the secondary market. No one will buy them. So that means that Countrywide depends greatly on Freddie and Fannie to purchase its mortgages. But if Freddie and Fannie cut back on their mortgage-purchasing activities and that access becomes restricted, it may prove too much for Countrywide to bear.

    The potential for reduced access to funding from Freddie and Fannie is certainly a hard place to be in, but the rock for Countrywide is likely to be a downgrade of its debt rating to “junk” status. In a recent filing, the company said such a downgrade would have a severe impact on its ability to do business – meaning it would likely be unable to continue as a going entity.

    So from just about every angle you look, it appears the mortgage market is going to continue getting worse and that conditions for companies like Countrywide will become critical – either they start to improve right away or too many doors will have closed. And needless to say, this is not a positive development for the housing market. No matter how you slice it, fewer mortgages mean fewer homebuyers, and that means lower home prices.

  11. grim says:

    It was the Thanksgiving week and the mortgage application for purchase was up 6% even rates on adjustable loans increased.

    Holiday weeks are typically subject to dramatic seasonal adjustments. Frankly, I’d ignore both the purchase and refinance indicies this week.

  12. grim says:

    Not to mention this criticism..

    U.S. MBA’s Mortgage Applications Index Fell 4.3% Last Week

    Economists view the purchase applications numbers with skepticism because the survey only includes retail lenders, whose share of business has increased as many wholesale brokers closed their doors due to subprime turmoil.

    Also, the mortgage bankers report counts all applications, even those that are rejected, and some borrowers have submitted multiple applications as credit standards tightened.

    “Mortgage applications and home sales haven’t been tracking each other as closely this year,” said Larson. “It appears more borrowers are applying for home purchase loans, but fewer are being approved and that’s causing home sales to fall.”

  13. Bloodbath in Winter 2007 says:

    Can someone define, ‘mortgage applications’ going up? Does this simply mean that people were ‘applying’ for loans?

    Or were they actually securing loans and buying houses?

    Ahhhh, F it. I don’t even care. I’ll just sit back and watch the real estate market tank for at least another year, enjoy my few shares of apple stock, and keep the heat off in my NY rental apartment while sipping hot chocolate and continuing to build on my 20% downpayment and dump 15% into my 401k.

  14. grim says:

    BB,

    Look directly above.

  15. Homer says:

    The unit next door, 246, is virtually identical (actually, listed at 2 baths vs 1.1) and selling for $20,000 less.

    I don’t know…That shiney beamer is very tempting.
    But who knows the conditions of the beamer. I would go with the one for 20k less and lowball that prices.

  16. what now says:

    newah mind the beat up cars…will not work for as loontg the home pricess dont drop for another 20-30%.

  17. BC Bob says:

    In the past imperialism required tanks, bombs and guns. It’s a new paradigm, now all that is required is BB, an obliterated dollar and oil. On the bright side, maybe some of the sovereign wealth funds are seeking to invest in capes in NNJ.

  18. grim says:

    From Bloomberg:

    Deadbeat Developers Signaled by Commercial Property Derivatives

    In the bond market, commercial property investors are about as creditworthy as U.S. homeowners with subprime mortgages.

    “Commercial real estate is a full-blown bubble that feels very much at a bursting point,” said Christian Stracke, an analyst in London at CreditSights Inc., a fixed-income research firm. “There’s a fairly toxic mix of factors at work.”

    The cost of derivatives protecting investors from defaults on the highest-rated bonds backed by properties more than doubled in the past month, according to Markit Group Ltd. Prices suggest traders anticipate defaults rising to the highest level since the Great Depression, according to analysts at RBS Greenwich Capital in Greenwich, Connecticut.

    The seven-year rally in offices and retail properties ended in September when prices fell an average of 1.2 percent, according to Moody’s Investors Service. More losses are likely because banks are holding $54 billion of commercial mortgages they can’t sell, data compiled by New York-based Citigroup Inc. show.

  19. grim says:

    From MarketWatch:

    U.S. durable goods orders fall 0.4% in October

    With demand for high-technology goods weakening, orders for U.S.-made durable goods fell for the third straight month in October, falling 0.4%, the Commerce Department reported Wednesday. Orders were slightly weaker than the 0.1% drop expected by economists surveyed by MarketWatch. The details of the report were worse than the headline number suggested, as orders for volatile defense capital goods rose 16.1%, led by demand for military ships. Excluding defense goods, orders dropped 0.9%. The report provides more evidence that the manufacturing sector is slowing despite booming exports. Demand for core capital investment goods fell 2.3%, the biggest drop since February.

  20. x-underwriter says:

    bi Says:
    November 28th, 2007 at 7:55 am
    Guys, this is big news. It was the Thanksgiving week and the mortgage application for purchase was up 6% even rates on adjustable loans increased. Apparently people were rushing to lock in fixed rates, which were down half to 1 percent from their high in August.

    Bi, you’re retarded. Like I said before, applications don’t equal closed loans. Banks are declining twice as many applications as they did a year ago. Applications are going up because people are being turned down and they go to another bank to try to get approved

  21. grim says:

    Retail lenders want brokers out of the market. Retail lending is worth much more combined with other retail offerings (checking, savings, credit cards, etc) in the context of cross-sell/up-sell options.

    We’ve heard story after story about warehouse lines being cut and lenders going belly up. Sure, in some cases the withdrawl of credit was warranted (based on repayment concerns), but in other cases, it was simply a way to easily increase retail lending market share by destroying competition.

    In some way, the increased MBA applications data (which is based on retail lenders) is a confirmation that the strategy is working, even in the face of declining sales.

    Look to the Wells release for further confirmation of this shift.

  22. BC Bob says:

    “Prices suggest traders anticipate defaults rising to the highest level since the Great Depression, according to analysts at RBS Greenwich Capital in Greenwich, Connecticut.”

    From #18,

    How many comparisons to the Great D can one actually tolerate. It’s becoming depressing.
    On the other hand, it’s beginning to look a lot like X-mas.

  23. bi says:

    After reading so much negative comments on this board, I became more pessimistic about NJ real estate market. Now I see the home price are going to be down about 10% in next few weeks for buyers and for sincere buyers only. Here is what I see: the fixed 30 year rates are going to be 5.6% by year end from 6.5% in August. This means that the monthly mortgage payment for $330K loan will be $1900, which was the same payment amount for $300K loan in August. Yes! It is roughly 10% reduction!

  24. Clotpoll says:

    BC (17)-

    “…maybe some of the sovereign wealth funds are seeking to invest in capes in NNJ.”

    I hate to say it, but their operatives will need safe houses in which to build bombs and plan their skulduggery.

    Granted, it’s a stretch to imply that the Abu Dhabi fund is a conduit straight to terrorists, but honestly, is there anyone who posts here who hasn’t had the same thought?

  25. grim says:

    bi,

    Spot on, affordability increases when financing costs decrease.

    We’re trending down a path very similar to the one travelled during the last real estate crash.

    The combination of both home prices and mortgage rates falling created a period of affordability that hasn’t been seen for more than 10 years.

    Unfortunately, given the dramatic changes in lending, it appears that this opportunity can only be capitalized by those who have strong credit and sufficient incomes and down payments. Unfortunately, only a very small proportion of the total population of potential buyers.

  26. Clotpoll says:

    bi (23)-

    Whoa! That’s just too much retard, too early in the morning.

    Off to work…tilling the fields of human misery.

  27. mikeinwaiting says:

    Bi What does it matter if you lose 10-15% in value over next 6 to 12 months.

  28. BC Bob says:

    “Now I see the home price are going to be down about 10% in next few weeks for buyers and for sincere buyers only.”

    bi,

    You baffle me with your contradictions. Is Chiller getting into your head?

  29. mikeinwaiting says:

    Rentals triple in my little corner of the woods.
    15 monthes ago I couldn’t find a place to rent at any price.Now many to choose from, have seen some drop asking rent to entice renters.Houseing
    sales bad rentals worse go figure.Sorry all you fellow renters in waiting,Vernon is to far for most.You can do Morristown in 1Hr 15 thou.Good schools, no crime,you do not need to be bi ligual.Sorry if that upsets some but when you have kids its good to have no bad side of town.

  30. Confused In NJ says:

    Among other issues, Hubbard has been deeply involved in the debate over the State Children’s Health Insurance Program and Bush’s proposal for a major shift in tax policy to, for the first time, treat health insurance costs as taxable income.

  31. BC Bob says:

    “The combination of both home prices and mortgage rates falling created a period of affordability that hasn’t been seen for more than 10 years.”

    JB [25],

    Great time to be a member of the LOD’s.

  32. pretorius says:

    Pat #3,

    Thanks for pointing out the article. I read it in Bloomberg Markets magazine.

    I recommend people have a look at that magazine. The standard of reporting is super – far better than other business and personal finance magazines.

  33. Al says:

    Hmm I do not know – right now eve with good credit history and 20% down – I sitll get quotes for 6.35%…..

  34. pretorius says:

    Grim #18,

    Somebody should inform Christian that commercial property bubble has already burst.

  35. BC Bob says:

    Orion [32],

    Great link. Thanks.

  36. Pat says:

    pret, I was also impressed with the initial Bloomberg coverage of the FL fund situation a week or so ago.

    Not much in story coverage makes an impression on me anymore. This was old time, do-your-damn-job-and-stop-whining journalism.

  37. x-underwriter says:

    Orion [32],
    Also thanks for the link. That site is now saved to my favorites list

  38. grim says:

    Al,

    FICO > 720, Mortgage < $417k, 28/36 (yeah yeah, outdated I know), 20% down?

  39. pretorius says:

    Pat,

    I enjoy reading the financial media. My two favorites are the Bloomberg magazine and Crain’s.

    A lot better than Wall Street Journal and NY Times.

  40. John says:

    Freddie Mac, the second-biggest U.S. mortgage-finance company, lost 5 cents to $25.68. The company plans to sell $6 billion in preferred stock and cut its dividend in half.

    The two-part sale will include non-convertible, non- cumulative preferred stock and a “substantially smaller” portion of convertible preferred shares, the company said.

    Losses tied to bad loans reduced Freddie Mac’s core capital cushion by two-thirds last quarter, leaving it with just $600 million more than the reserve level required by its regulator.

  41. Sean says:

    re: (10)

    BC Bob, Freddie Mac and Fannie Mae have been doing allot more for market liquidity than just buying paper
    from Countrywide.I never though the LBO of Archstone-Smith by Tishman Speyer would be completed since the financing dried up.
    That is until Fannie Mae and Freddie Mac got involved.

    A few in Congress also took note. Sens. John Sununu, R-N.H., and Chuck Hagel, R-Neb, who have long been critical of Freddie and Fannie, asked Fannie Mae and Freddie Mac for more information regarding the role they played in the $15.2 billion sale of Archstone-Smith Trust to Tishman Speyer Properties and Lehman Brothers Holdings Inc. With Archstone long touting its properties as some of the most sought-after in various markets, the senators asked the CEOs of Fannie and Freddie to “Please explain how this transaction furthers your mission to promote affordable housing.”

    The answer from Freddie Mac? They were helping market liquidity!

    You can expect the taxpayers will get whacked with the costs of this steath bailout after the next election.

  42. chicagofinance says:

    pretorius Says:
    November 28th, 2007 at 9:24 am
    Pat, I enjoy reading the financial media. My two favorites are the Bloomberg magazine and Crain’s. A lot better than Wall Street Journal and NY Times.

    pret: I like Bloomberg too, but at a certain point, who gives a crap about Edgar Allen Poe-styled building of wine cellars in your Lichtfield County country house and spending $1.3M for a meteorite…..honestly, it kind of reeks a little bit of those bizarre magazines you are offered in the First Class cabins on planes. They really capture the pulse of the market though on a day-to-day basis……..please don’t slag the WSJ….I’m sorry I meant the Murdoch Street Journal.

  43. pretorius says:

    Sean,

    Great point. Now Freddie is propping up prices for class A apartment properties. That is crazy.

  44. grim says:

    From MarketWatch:

    U.S. Oct. existing-home sales fall 1.2% to 4.97 million
    U.S. Oct. existing-home sales stronger than 4.85mln expected
    U.S. Oct. existing-home inventory at 22-year high
    U.S. Oct. existing-home median price down record 5.1%

  45. njpatient says:

    “U.S. Oct. existing-home median price down record 5.1%”

    Oh my

    Does this mean pre was wrong?

  46. what now says:

    46 …nope it means pricess need to fall more!!

  47. njpatient says:

    Time for NAR to revise and extend?

  48. njpatient says:

    “46 …nope it means pricess need to fall more!!”

    Both things can be true simultaneously

  49. BC Bob says:

    “U.S. housing woes hinder European firms”

    “Wolseley to cut more jobs; Norwegian investment bank to go bankrupt”

    http://www.marketwatch.com/news/story/us-housing-woes-hurt-european/story.aspx?guid=%7B0C44EDEF%2D146E%2D41AF%2D952C%2DA4F31CA4C1DD%7D&dist=hplatest

  50. grim says:

    From the AP:

    Existing Home Sales Fall Again

    Sales of existing homes fell for the eighth consecutive month in October, with median home prices falling by a record amount. Analysts blamed the worsening housing slump on the serious credit crunch that hit in August.
    The National Association of Realtors reported that sales of existing single-family homes and condominiums dropped by 1.2 percent last month to a seasonally adjusted annual rate of 4.97 million units.

    The median price of a home sold last month declined to $207,800, a drop of 5.1 percent from a year ago, the biggest year-over-year price decline on record.

  51. pretorius says:

    Njpatient,

    My -5% to 5% forecast was for NJ home prices. The purpose was simply to put some numbers around my expectation for “stagnant” home price market.

    Let’s wait for the OFHEO data. It is reputable index (I acknowledge its imperfections) and has a state-by-state breakdown.

  52. kettle1 says:

    #30 COnfused

    Bush’s proposal for a major shift in tax policy to, for the first time, treat health insurance costs as taxable income

    Neocons are not “conservatives” currently both parties are all about tax and spend. It will be interesting to see if/or at what point people will actually start to protest the tax and spend behavior, in what ever form that protest may take. I would love to have a traditional “conservative in office” i.e small Gov, reduced spending etc…

  53. njpatient says:

    52 pre
    I’m just messing with you.
    I don’t take no truck with no NAR numbers neither.

  54. njrebear says:

    pret,
    Doesn’t OFHEO ignore houses valued more than 417K?

  55. 3b says:

    #52 pret How about the over 10% decline closed sale prices for the condo/coop market in Edgewater (gold coast), from Oct 06 through Oct 07, hardly sounds like stagnant to me.

  56. njpatient says:

    “currently both parties are all about tax and spend.”

    I agree, kettle, although I’d say there’s a slight difference: the Dems are the tax and spend party (they’ll tax you and spend freely) and the Reps are the spend and tax party (they’ll spend freely and tax your children).

  57. njrebear says:

    “I don’t anticipate any further major sales declines,” Yun said. If sales do continue to fall, “it would be a major concern” and “would raise the risk of an economic recession.”

  58. pretorius says:

    #55 – no.

  59. pretorius says:

    3b,

    Doesn’t surprise me. That submarket was wildly overpriced in 2006 and is wildly overbuilt in 2007.

  60. 3b says:

    #60 What sub-market is that,a sub-market of Hudson County?

  61. grim says:

    pre,

    Your prediction is a sucker bet. The interval is wide enough to drive almost 30 years of OFHEO index through.

    In the 126 quarterly observations made for NJ by OFHEO since 1975, only twice has the index ever gone negative greater than 5% YOY.

    Based on history alone, you have a 98% chance of being correct with your prediction.

    Congratulations, I have no doubt you’ll be proven right.

  62. pretorius says:

    #61 – no

  63. Jamey says:

    Short of channeling the spirit of Descartes or Sartres, where can I get statistics on the sale of non-existing homes?

    Thanks.

  64. pretorius says:

    Grim,

    Give me a break. I wasn’t making a scientific prediction linked to a single index. I was simply putting my “stagnant” expectation into context.

    The fact that my prediction gets more criticism than the “30%-off-peak-prices” hyperventilators proves the bias of the people here.

  65. chicagofinance says:

    pret: I AM NOT BIASED!

    I just have a strong opinion that colors my judgement ;-)

  66. grim says:

    pre,

    I apologise for calling you out. I only do it because I enjoy the back and forth and you typically make excellent arguments. I love to argue/debate, but it is impossible to do when the majority share my opinion.

  67. 3b says:

    #65 pret:Please lets nto talk about hyperventilating.

    You lost all credibility as a reasonable contrarian when you stated a couple of weeks back that tons of rich Ivy League graduates will move here, even with out jobs and their wealthy parents will buy them 700K condos on the gold coast.

  68. pretorius says:

    “In the 126 quarterly observations made for NJ by OFHEO since 1975, only twice has the index ever gone negative greater than 5% YOY.”

    Grim, I’m talking about 2007 prices compared to 2006 prices – not sequential quarterly numbers.

  69. pretorius says:

    3b,

    Moments ago you claimed that Edgewater was in Hudson County. How can you support that comment?

  70. BC Bob says:

    “The fact that my prediction gets more criticism than the “30%-off-peak-prices” hyperventilators proves the bias of the people here.”

    Pre,

    I guarantee that, if I buy, I will be buying at a minimum of 30% off 2005. Granted, it may not be until 2009. That said, I have had the opportunity to buy 2 properties at 30% off within the past 2 months, short sales. However, I felt that I would be over paying.

  71. grim says:

    pre,

    What do you mean, Q4 to Q4, Q1 to Q1, or 2006 to 2007 (does OFHEO even release a yearly index?).

  72. chicagofinance says:

    Essex Says:
    November 27th, 2007 at 11:06 pm
    Down on the Upside…man alive that was a favorite of mine. I used to listen to that on train into downtown Chicago from Lakeview all of the time…excellent.

    County East of London: Parallels….I was trolling through Hyde Park in 1996 blasting “Burden In My Hand”. Rough winter….do you remember the -17F?

  73. bi says:

    you guys here keep bashing the most reputable organization. here you see taht NAR’s number is even lower than chiller’s number. but pret is right: our area weathers much better. enjoy your another goldilocks day today: dow up 220 pts.

    http://www.realtor.org/press_room/news_releases/2007/ehs_oct07_mixed_results.html

    “Regionally, existing-home sales in the Northeast were unchanged at an annual pace of 900,000 in October, and are 12.6 percent below October 2006. The median price in the Northeast was $258,700, up 1.3 percent from a year ago.”

  74. Anxious but waiting says:

    OT

    Do any of you legal gurus know if a landlord can force their tenants to pay rent via electronic transfer. automatic deductions from tenants checking account.

    Thoughts..

    Tan

  75. pretorius says:

    Grim,

    Again I’m not making a prediction on a specific index. I think OFHEO index is quarterly only.

  76. pretorius says:

    BC Bob

    Go for it. You must be looking in suburbs with >1 hour commute door-to-door to Manhattan.

    Buy the way I’m impressed that you took action and sold in 2005, instead of just hyperventilating then actually doing nothing.

  77. BubbleYum says:

    Anxious but waiting Says:
    November 28th, 2007 at 10:43 am
    OT

    Do any of you legal gurus know if a landlord can force their tenants to pay rent via electronic transfer. automatic deductions from tenants checking account.

    Thoughts..

    Tan
    ________________________________________________

    Was this requirement included in your lease?

  78. chicagofinance says:

    bi Says:
    November 28th, 2007 at 10:42 am
    you guys here keep bashing the most reputable organization. here you see taht NAR’s number is even lower than chiller’s number.

    bi: STOP writing CHILLER….I was 8 years old in 1976, and many Saturday nights I would sneak out to the living room after my grandmother fell asleep to watch SNL. If it was a repeat, then I would switch and see this….

    http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=asO97gdn2oo&feature=related

  79. 3b says:

    #70 pret: No I said Edgewater is close to Hudson County, but yet still in prestigious Bergen County.

  80. BC Bob says:

    “Go for it. You must be looking in suburbs with >1 hour commute door-to-door to Manhattan.”

    Pre,

    No, 5-10 mile radius of the meadowlands. However, not eastward.

  81. njpatient says:

    “the most reputable organization”

    bi – that’s your description of the NAR?
    Can you say it in one sentence (here – cut and paste: I believe the NAR is the most reputable organization).

  82. x-underwriter says:

    bi Says:
    you guys here keep bashing the most reputable organization.

    By far, you are the most reputable poster here

  83. njpatient says:

    “Again I’m not making a prediction on a specific index.”

    But pre, doesn’t that render your prediction meaningless?

  84. Anxious but waiting says:

    #78
    BubbleYum

    Was this requirement included in your lease?

    No.. They just sent out a notice saying that they will be collecting all rents through the ACH on the 1st of the new year,
    attached an authorization form, and said nothing about any other options for paying after the 1st of 08.

    Tan

  85. njpatient says:

    “instead of just hyperventilating then actually doing nothing.”

    Indeed – BC Bob is not to be confused with bi

  86. njpatient says:

    “No.. They just sent out a notice saying that they will be collecting all rents through the ACH on the 1st of the new year,
    attached an authorization form, and said nothing about any other options for paying after the 1st of 08.”

    Send them a note saying that you will be paying by check as of the first of the year and attaching an acknowledgment for them to sign.

  87. grim says:

    I’ve made the same kinds of ambiguous predictions here before, as have many others. I deserve to be skewered in similar fashion.

  88. 3b says:

    #74 bi: Another goldilocks day? The market is hoping for another Fed cut on Dec 11, looks like a hope rally to me, nothing more.

    So where are you now, did you not say before that you expect prices to drop 10% over the next few weeks, for serious buyers only?

    And yet the NAR is correct etc and our area will hold up better? Well how can it hold up better if prices are going to fall 10%?

  89. 3b says:

    #79 chgo: The music and the creepy voice were the best!!

  90. njpatient says:

    “I deserve to be skewered in similar fashion.”

    Indeed you do. And if we can get around to having the meet-up, I shall skewer you with some fine scotch (pret too, if he shows).

  91. Glen says:

    Could someone with access to the MLS give me the address for MLS#: 2397890? I would appreciate it.
    Thanks

  92. grim says:

    12 Baldwin

  93. Richie says:

    OT

    Do any of you legal gurus know if a landlord can force their tenants to pay rent via electronic transfer. automatic deductions from tenants checking account.

    Thoughts..

    Tan

    I know that some condo associations can force this for monthly maintenance fees. Don’t see why landlords can’t do it for rent.

    It’s a much better mechanism so that the landlords don’t have to worry about you “forgetting” to mail your check.

  94. Glen says:

    Thanks Grim

  95. BubbleYum says:

    Anxious but waiting Says:
    November 28th, 2007 at 10:56 am
    #78
    BubbleYum

    Was this requirement included in your lease?

    No.. They just sent out a notice saying that they will be collecting all rents through the ACH on the 1st of the new year,
    attached an authorization form, and said nothing about any other options for paying after the 1st of 08.

    Tan
    ________________________________________________

    I’m not aware of any NJ L-T statute or ordinance that would empower a landlord to force a tenant to pay in this way, so the only way they could make you would be by agreement. If the terms of your lease make no mention of such a requirement, nor provide that the landlord is empowered to unilaterally implement such an option at some point during the term of the lease, then this would appear to be a voluntary act they are trying to make look compulsory.

    I don’t know what your relationship is like with the LL, but you may want to give them a call and explain that you intend to continue paying them as you always have.

  96. njpatient says:

    ” Don’t see why landlords can’t do it for rent.”

    They can’t if they’re not contractually entitled to.

  97. njpatient says:

    I see BubbleYum already said it better and in more detail, Anxious – what s/he said.

  98. syncmaster says:

    grim, what is the street address for GSMLS # 2462645? It is in Pway. Thanks.

  99. Rich In NNJ says:

    290 Kinderkamack Road, River Edge NJ

    Purchased: 8/2006
    Purchase Price: $585,000

    MLS# 2746946
    Listed: 11/27/2007
    OLP/LP: $575,000
    DOM: 1
    Active

  100. Anxious but waiting says:

    Thanx for all your input..
    I’m drafting a letter now with some questions regarding this “New Policy to make things easier for the Tenants”

    Tan

  101. 3b says:

    #102 Rich: That seller is going to get hosed. First of all it is Kinderkamack Rd., one of the busiest roads in Bergen County, and that particualr spot is one of the worst on that entire stretch of road.

    The crappy locations are going to suffer even more than say if that house was a block in.

  102. bi says:

    off the topic: b.c. bob, you guys have to sell gold nugget and oil what to buy christmas gift? oil down another 3% today.

  103. HEHEHE says:

    CNBC just reported Bear Stearns is cutting 4% of its staff, 650 jobs

  104. grim says:

    sync,

    500 Lynnwood

  105. syncmaster says:

    grim, thanks. Way too close to the river.

  106. Rich In NNJ says:

    86 Platt Ave, Saddle Brook NJ

    Purchased: 10/2006
    Purchase Price: $700,000

    MLS# 2717166
    Listed: 5/1/2007
    OLP: $825,000
    LP: $769,000
    DOM: 187
    Expired

    Relisted
    MLS# 2746969
    List Date: 11/27/2007
    OLP: $689,000
    Active
    DOM: 1

  107. BC Bob says:

    “sell gold nugget and oil what to buy christmas gift?”

    bi [105],

    Thanks for the comedy. I almost lost my snickers bar.

    Gold futures are in rollover. I’m sure you have no clue what that means. That said, the market, almost all the time, sells off during the week of rollover. Now if you own gold from approx $350 and rollover approaches, you simply hedge. You don’t sit idle like a screwed home seller, or maybe a lap dog, and watch profits evaporate.

    I would suggest you throw out your s*it streaming quotes and upgrade your system. If you want to talk about Gold you really should have a handle on rollover and its ramifications on the market. Otherwise, you are spitting in the wind.

    I do know one thing, I won’t be taking out a hel, nor cc’s, for X-Mas.

  108. John says:

    “Price declines are part of the healing process, but we have a lot of healing to do,” said Paul Kasriel, chief economist of Northern Trust in Chicago. “Obviously, when you have excess supply, one of the ways you come back into equilibrium is with price declines, and we’re starting to see that that with a vengeance. Of course we’re going to see more – it’s not over.”

  109. 3b says:

    #109 Rich: I am amazed that we are almost into December, and new listings are still coming on. I would have thought at this point people would wait until after the Holidays.

  110. njpatient says:

    “oil down another 3% today.”

    it’ll be at $40 any day now…

  111. njrebear says:

    59 pret,

    wrong again! Is anybody keeping a count??

    OFHEO ignores non-confirming loans. Meaning loans greater than 417K are not included in calculations.

    http://www.consumermortgagereports.com/home-values-down-in-15-of-20-major-cities/

  112. x-underwriter says:

    syncmaster Says:
    grim, thanks. Way too close to the river.

    I wonder if that neighborhood was underwater the last go-around. I know that area on Possumtown Rd. always gets shut down when we have a bad rain.
    Offer $100,000 off list price and say that’s an allowance for a boat. LOL

  113. VMC says:

    Tan, my advice on ACH deductions for rent would be don’t do it. I know my landlord has rules like a 60 day notice period if you don’t intend to renew your lease. If you only give them 59 days they charge you for 1 day rent at the above-market month-to-month rate – you could end up “owing” them major money if you only give them 50 days, or 30 etc. It says on our renewal notices that this money will come out of our checking account if we have agreed to automatic payments. Can you imagine fighting with a big landlord over this? They could say that you only gave X number of days, take your money, and good luck getting it back. I would prefer to fight with them over ME paying something, not begging them for my money back.

  114. syncmaster says:

    x-underwriter #115,

    The apartment complex on the other side of River Road from where that is was evacuated.

    Possumtown was shut down because of the swamp that lies between Possumtown and the area these homes are in overflowing. Birch Glen was a great idea *rolls eyes*.

  115. pretorius says:

    Njpatient,

    The 417 is the loan limit. You said values in #55. Loan amounts and values aren’t the same.

  116. otis wildflower says:

    Direct Deposit is one thing, direct withdrawal is quite another.

    For rent, I wouldn’t do either, though I do have the bank print and mail checks so I don’t forget..

  117. versity says:

    All,

    I’m the guy that posted a few months ago describing how I had to sell the house I bought in April ’07 because of a job move to Connecticut. I ended up selling for our asking price (5% above our purchase price) within 30 days of listing. We still lost money on the deal through transaction costs and because we made about $20k of improvements. Nonetheless, I learned the following:

    1. I am a lucky bastard. I walked away with most of my downpayment.

    2. The RE market it truly local, and NY is King in this area. We are walking distance to a nice Essex county town and to a 30 minute NYC train. Those qualities sold me and were the key points for my buyers.

    3. I will listen to my wife more. I wanted “bang for the buck” in a square foot sense but she insisted on the house we bought because it had “so much charm.” My buyer’s wife used that exact same phrase at the closing.

    Goodbye, board. I’ll check in again when I’m ready to buy in CT in a year or two.

  118. njpatient says:

    “pretorius Says:
    November 28th, 2007 at 12:29 pm
    Njpatient,

    The 417 is the loan limit. You said values in #55. Loan amounts and values aren’t the same.”

    You’re talking to the wrong guy.

  119. kettle1 says:

    BC Bob

    please correct me if i am wrong, but isnt rolling over just picking up new contracts before the existing ones die?

  120. njpatient says:

    cheers, versity – excellent work in a tough spot.

  121. grim says:

    versity,

    Thanks for the update.

  122. njpatient says:

    wow – did reinvestor apply for a job as a paralegal?
    http://www.abovethelaw.com/

  123. x-underwriter says:

    syncmaster Says:
    Possumtown was shut down because of the swamp that lies between Possumtown and the area these homes are in overflowing. Birch Glen was a great idea *rolls eyes*.

    Ha ha, I live (rent) in Birch Glen. We didn’t get evacuated for the flood this spring though. I told my wife to keep an eye on the parking lot for any floaters the whole day. Our basement sump pump ran constantly for weeks after that.

  124. njrebear says:

    118]
    Pret

    How are you going to buy a house worth more than 417K without a loan about the same price?

    Once you do and there is a correction, OFHEO completely ignores the change in price because the new sale isn’t confirming.

    bi at least knows how to change the subject when he is wrong…

  125. njpatient says:

    re 127 – nevermind, it’s not reinvestor; I hadn’t gotten to this part yet:

    “I have an associates and hope to start my own business someday on the side of real estate appraisal. But, this economy is dicey for anyone to train in the field.”

  126. John says:

    Why is it everytime I go to a PM Trading Desk I feel like yelling KATANGO!!!!!!! I want a cool word like that to use at work.

  127. syncmaster says:

    x-underwriter #128,

    My sump pump seemed to run nonstop for about 3 days. I’m in the same area.

    Hey have you noticed loud train noises at night recently? This is on the conrail track right behind Birch Glen and Canterbury. The same track you drive under when you go up Possumtown towards Centennial. I’ve always been aware of the train noises from the RARV line behind Maple Grove, but hese are new (and closer).

  128. Rich In NNJ says:

    3b,

    (112) I find that most of these new listings that are lower than their original purchase prices are flippers or they have to sell due to their ARM adjusting or other financial problems.

    Rich

  129. stuw6 says:

    From BankRate.com:

    By the way, when we got our last mortgage, E-Loan matched the BankRate loan listed at the time, to the penny. Our credit score was over 750 and we did put 20% down.

    Loan Type Today Last Week
    30 Year Fixed 5.80% 5.90%
    15 Year Fixed 5.38% 5.47%
    1 Year ARM 5.52% 5.49%
    30 Year Fixed Jumbo 6.64% 6.61%
    5/1 ARM 5.50% 5.51%
    3/1 ARM 5.29% 5.23%

  130. John says:

    Rates on one-year adjustable-rate mortgages that include many jumbo loans rose 26 basis points to 6.24 percent, highest since the height of the credit crunch in mid-September.

    How is the rate cuts helping hte arm folks?

  131. John says:

    Who needs an appraiser? I can give you the next five years of home prices right now!

    2008 = 2007 price minus 5%
    2009 = 2008 price minus 5%
    2010 = 2009 price minus 5%
    2011 = 2010 price minus 5%
    2012 = 2011 price minus 5%

    njpatient Says:
    November 28th, 2007 at 12:47 pm
    re 127 – nevermind, it’s not reinvestor; I hadn’t gotten to this part yet:

    “I have an associates and hope to start my own business someday on the side of real estate appraisal. But, this economy is dicey for anyone to train in the field.”

  132. x-underwriter says:

    syncmaster Says:
    Hey have you noticed loud train noises at night recently?

    I sleep like a rock. I know that’s a freight line so they have these old diesel locomotives running through there and they can get noisy. It seems to come and go.

  133. 3b says:

    #133 Rich: Understands. Still a tough time of year though to sell a home in any market environment.

    I think the Spring selling season may start early this year as in right after the holidays.

    Potential sellers may want to get a jump on the those who will be looking to sell come April/May of 08.

  134. njpatient says:

    More biglaw job cuts:

    http://www.abovethelaw.com/2007/11/nationwide_layoff_watch_thache.php

    Structured Finance and RE

  135. syncmaster says:

    x-underwriter,

    Yeah, I’ve tried to discern patterns in their timing but haven’t been able to. Some days in the evening a train will just sit on the track for hours, I’ll see it from my car on the overpass, sitting still. I’ll go out 2 hours later to get something and it’s still there!

  136. grim says:

    From Reuters:

    Fraud a factor in subprime underperformance

    Lax underwriting standards and fraud may account for a quarter of the poor performance of subprime mortgage securities originated in 2006, Fitch Ratings said on Wednesday.

    High levels of delinquencies and defaults by subprime mortgage borrowers are due to a number of factors including declining home prices and risky mortgage products, Fitch said in a statement. However, poor underwriting and fraud are also playing a role in high defaults, Fitch said.

  137. PGC says:

    So I’m trying to work out if you would describe the counters in the kitchen as purple or pink.

    http://tinyurl.com/2xajbr

    It shows you can’t buy class or taste.

  138. 1987 Condo Buyer says:

    #142..a pinkish Mauve!

  139. mikeinwaiting says:

    PGC Realtor-A deep rich pink.
    You & me- F88ken scary!

  140. njpatient says:

    I think that color is called “poivre”

  141. mikeinwaiting says:

    Chi fi Chiller……………Thats what I thought of the first time it was posted.

  142. DINJ says:

    grim
    Could I get address info for GSMLS#: 2424275

    Thanks in advance.

  143. mikeinwaiting says:

    House on my old block bought 05 350 sold 2 months ago 300.Thats over 10% + com. & tax.Can drive over & get address if some one would like to verifi.

  144. BC Bob says:

    kettle [124],

    That’s correct. Also, it coincides with options expiration.

  145. spam spam bacon spam says:

    I would call it pepto pink.

    My mother always said you can’t buy taste (like PGC says) and that right there is the proof. :)

  146. BC Bob says:

    “I feel like yelling KATANGO!!!!!!!”

    John [131],

    Contango?

  147. pretorius says:

    “How are you going to buy a house worth more than 417K without a loan about the same price?”

    Njrebear,

    I did it last year. Bought a home for more than that but got a loan for less. Reason is I made a downpayment.

  148. mikeinwaiting says:

    A downpayment how novel.Let us say retro,its back in style with the banks.

  149. njpatient says:

    152 – pret, now you’ve got the right guy

  150. Clotpoll says:

    pret (65)-

    That “30% off peak price” prediction has more basis in fact than anything you’ve offered up here.

    I’ve already booked two sales in the past few weeks that damn near hit that mark, so I am, in fact, my own confirmation of the fact you refer to as hyperventilation.

  151. pretorius says:

    Sorry njpatient for the mistaken ID. Please understand that is hard for me to keep track of all the people who are attempting to rubbish my posts.

  152. Clotpoll says:

    sync (108)-

    Hey! Waterfront property…

  153. Clotpoll says:

    BC (110)-

    The only “rollover” bi knows is the one he tells his dog to do.

  154. njrebear says:

    pret,

    You either put down a large down payment. In which case do you honestly feel that your purchase (ratio of downpayment to value) lies in the middle of the bell curve of NNJ transactions?

    or

    Were you just lucky to have payed the right down payment to make barely it across the line?

    I don’t think either of the two scenarios represent bulk of over 417K transactions.

  155. syncmaster says:

    Clot #157, that section of the Raritan River is filthy. But of course, you know that.

  156. Clotpoll says:

    3b (138)-

    This is not a tough time of year to sell. There are a surprising amount of buyers out there, although they are not in a mood to overspend or fool around (disclaimer: this is my experience, in my market area only).

    By Spring ’08, the rush to the exits will be full on…and it will be much more difficult to sell then.

  157. Clotpoll says:

    sync (160)-

    Please direct me to the section of this river that isn’t filthy…

  158. syncmaster says:

    Clot – Touche

  159. reality hurts says:

    Pretty soon they are gonna go from hyperventilation to something worse, now they are talking about waiting until 2012 to buy. What happens if prices depreciate slowly for the next 5-10 years? How long are will you housing bears be willing to wait it out? It seems the average age of people on this blog is about 28-32years old. That means you will be late 30’s early 40’s before you buy? OUCH. I may not come out ahead by 30 grand for buying last year BUT I am living comfortably and enjoying my prime years as an adult – having kids, getting married, buying a house. What say you?

  160. njrebear says:

    Slowdown has arrived, according to latest Fed Beige Book

    http://www.marketwatch.com/News/Story/Story.aspx?guid=%7B5EAD2BC3%2D7F0B%2D43F5%2DB433%2D9C4B45C12DBC%7D&siteid=mktw

    The report found soft retail sales, pessimism about the holiday season and concern that goods are piling up on shelves. The financial market turmoil is impacting the market for credit. Business loans are down and standards for consumer loans are up

  161. pretorius says:

    Njrebear,

    I’m not going to get too deep into the financials. But I think I made a normal downpayment (10%-30%) for a normal-priced North Jersey home ($300,000-$600,000).

  162. x-underwriter says:

    syncmaster,
    I was looking for some other stuff on the net and found this page of recent land transfers in P’way. It might be useful for you in pricing some local comps. Sales data is very recent

    http://www.aboutourtown.com/towns/pi/realestate/pi_real_index.htm

  163. Clotpoll says:

    pret (166)-

    Thanks for narrowing that down for us.

  164. syncmaster says:

    reality #164,

    You have a point. Regular people’s (i.e. not investors) decisions to buy and/or sell housing are rarely driven primarily by the news… they’re usually more driven by the pace of their lives and their perception of what they need/deserve. Life goes on, even during a housing downtown/plateau.

    JMHO, don’t kill me oh great and wise bears *bow*

  165. chicagofinance says:

    reality hurts Says:
    November 28th, 2007 at 2:22 pm
    That means you will be late 30’s early 40’s before you buy? OUCH. I may not come out ahead by 30 grand for buying last year BUT I am living comfortably and enjoying my prime years as an adult – having kids, getting married, buying a house. What say you?

    reality bites: I am 39 and rent. I am fighting tooth and nail to be relevent, but since I don’t own a home, I am really not a person. Maybe I should just kill myself……

  166. syncmaster says:

    x-under #167,

    Yeap I’ve seen that. You should even get a free paper copy of that once a month at home in the mail.

  167. grim says:

    That means you will be late 30’s early 40’s before you buy? OUCH. I may not come out ahead by 30 grand for buying last year BUT I am living comfortably and enjoying my prime years as an adult – having kids, getting married, buying a house. What say you?

    How (or why), exactly, is owning a house a prerequisite for enjoying my “prime years”?

    Are you saying renters can’t get married, have kids, or enjoy life?

    Sounds kinda pitchy if you ask me. That or someone duped you into buying by making that same argument.

  168. Clotpoll says:

    sync (169)-

    Right you are. Buying residential RE is a 99% emotional decision for 99% of the people who do it.

    Let the bears here rail. The thing most of ’em don’t get is that they are- in terms of real numbers- so small as to be statistically insignificant.

    If even 10% of the buyers in the US ascribed to the prevalent mindset here, we’d already be seeing sales numbers worse than during the Depression.

    Fact is, even when this thing craters out, sales will occur. For better or worse, the emotional appeal of homeownership will never fully die.

  169. njrebear says:

    Pret,
    In which case you are among the few who can afford a down payment and are still positive on housing market turning around. Again, from what clot says your kind is hard to find these days.

    Are you always that generous when providing a range? :)

  170. Pat says:

    cf..you could always stop by the Brigadoon shop and pick up some rose-colored glasses.

    It might help some with the perspective issue (the downside is, they don’t do anything to hide larger-than-normal head size).

  171. rhymingrealtor says:

    Hey Chifi

    Its hard to read comments when your away for a little while so I went directly to the end #170
    gave me my laugh for the day, Thanks!
    Only moments before that I got a laugh when I brought my Dog back home (from sisters) to see him slide across the new carpetless floor! Oh yea when I saw that I also thougt what a loser I am I pay the in rent of the equivelant of SFH taxes, only, of course my heat & HW is included and I asked my landlord to stop by ( he never does unless I ask) he did this morning and told me to pay only half the rent for December, he loved it! Stupid me.

    KL

  172. reality hurts says:

    #170 don’t kill yourself, I need you to keep paying taxes so they can repave the street in front of my house and my kids need new books for school :)

  173. BC Bob says:

    “The only “rollover” bi knows is the one he tells his dog to do.’

    Clot [158],

    Do you mean the one his dog tells him to do?

  174. x-underwriter says:

    syncmaster Says:
    Yeap I’ve seen that. You should even get a free paper copy of that once a month at home in the mail.

    I’m sure I’ve tossed every one of them without even looking at it

  175. BC Bob says:

    “I may not come out ahead by 30 grand for buying last year BUT I am living comfortably and enjoying my prime years as an adult”

    reality [164],

    I owned my first place when I was 22. If living in a house defines your enjoyment, in your prime years, you are probably living a shallow existence.

  176. chicagofinance says:

    Pat Says:
    November 28th, 2007 at 2:34 pm
    cf..you could always stop by the Brigadoon shop and pick up some rose-colored glasses.
    It might help some with the perspective issue (the downside is, they don’t do anything to hide larger-than-normal head size).

    http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=ihd4G9XxJOc

  177. kettle1 says:

    Reality 164,

    i can do all of that while renting plus depending on your situation and personal proclivaties still come out ahead financially wihtout having to worry about the normal carrying cost associted with a home such as maint. tax etc… There is no yes/no answer to renting, everyone will have a different answer even given the same circumstances.

  178. CB in SJ says:

    mikeinwaiting Says:
    Let’s see how are friends at the NAR paint a happy face on the numbers today

    Here you go, Mike:

    “Single-family existing-home sales were stable in October while the condo sector was down, according to the National Association of Realtors®. Lingering effects of the credit crunch were a drag on sales but the mortgage situation has improved significantly.”

    The rest of the article, on Realtor.org, is in a similar vein.

  179. PeaceNow says:

    Anxious(103):
    Read the posts about your rent and others’ responses. As someone who used to counsel tenants in NYC, I have to say that we’d all need to read the entire notice before giving you the best advice. For instance, nowhere did you say that this notice “requires” payment via electronic transfer, only that they’re now accepting payments that way. So before tying yourself in knots over this, re-read the notice. In any case, if you have a current lease, the landlord will have to continue to accept your checks. Leases are contracts and can’t be changed mid-period without the consent of both parties.

    To Kettle1: Absolutely LOVE FIOS. Technician was a little baffled by my Vonage router, then by my Mac’s Airport, but she got everything connected in less than four hours. TV picture is so much sharper and brighter that now I’d love to go flat-screen.

  180. syncmaster says:

    x-underwriter, the paper version isn’t called “About Our Town”, it’s titled something else but inside the URL listed is the same.

  181. kettle1 says:

    As clotpoll pointed out. I am a bear and in that very small percentage. After a recent presonal reassesment, it looks like we may be stuck stayin gin the area ( lots of family around). We will probably not buy for 3-5 yrs at the earliest and may wait longer. Of course this depends on the economics at any given time, but we plan to build. Our idea is to do ti (buy/buld) once and do it right. On the other hand, we would consider investment property (i.e rental property) in the niterim if we say a good opportunuity but ultimatly clot is right myself and many others here are in a “super” minority in that we tend to be financially savy and less inclined to emotionaly driven financial choices. To bad though, a few more ppl like us would not be a bad thing for the USA….

    sorry for the grammer to lazy to fix

  182. 3b says:

    #161 Clot: I undestand that there are always sales, just a surprised that this late in the year still seeing new listings. Last year at this time in the small area I follow, there were only about 25 homes on the market.

  183. 3b says:

    #183 CB So according to the NAR down mean stable?

    Gotta love it!!

  184. kettle1 says:

    Peace 184

    COngrats! if you start loosing internet access randomly then the problem is the router they gave you. its not actually the router itself, but has something to do with the software it runs. remeber to try the trouter thingy i told you about last night. This seems to happen to ppl regardless of whether they run Mac’s or pc’s. enjoy the surfing!

  185. 3b says:

    #`87Last year at this time in the small area I follow, there were only about 25 homes on the market. Today, there are over 100.

  186. 3b says:

    #166 pret: Just so I can keep this straight, You bought a condo in 05 and flipped it and made a handsome profit.

    Then in 2007 you bought another condo, and now a house, or is it just the condo?

  187. 3b says:

    #180 BC Bob: I owned my first place when I was 22.

    Same here, and did it with a 20% down payment.

  188. BC Bob says:

    3b [192],

    Yes, 20% down, 28/36, two months of pay stubs, bank records, prove that the 20% was not borrowed and 6 months of future payments, cushion for the bank. They put a scope up your a**, like you were running for Pres..

    Some things old become new again.

  189. John says:

    I rather wait five years to buy a house then lose 2K a month for the next five years. Sounds about as enjoyable as a sandpaper wrapped cucumber in the bunghole.

  190. pretorius says:

    3b, bought a condo for primary residence in 06. Flipped a couple this year. What about you?

  191. syncmaster says:

    I rather wait five years to buy a house then lose 2K a month for the next five years.

    Are you saying you believe the home you buy will lose 2k in value every month? 24k every year?

    I’m sure you’re not referring to PITI payments since as a renter, you make those anyway. Maybe not technically but indirectly. At least if you own you get to deduct the I+T part of PITI.

  192. pretorius says:

    I just looked home sales in my town (Weehawken)that closed in the last 6 months.

    Reason I did this is I wanted to see if there were any comp killers. Also thought it would remind people that home prices are not falling everywhere and many submarkets remains solid.

    Here are the results for homes that had been purchased during 2004-2007. I left out homes that sold for $1 or homes sold to family members.

    Address
    Closing date and price
    Previous closing date and price
    Absolute and annualized gains

    600 HARBOR BLVD,UNIT#957
    15-Feb-07 $420,677
    31-May-07 $545,000
    30% 146%

    80 WEST 18TH ST
    15-Apr-05 $255,700
    5-Jun-07 $360,000
    41% 17%

    3 GRAND ST
    17-May-06 $580,000
    6-Jun-07 $685,000
    18% 17%
    Substantially improved

    518-536 GREGORY AVE #B302
    30-Jun-04 $420,519
    21-Jun-07 $540,000
    28% 9%

    600 HARBOR BLVD,UNIT#1071
    7-Mar-07 $911,513
    22-Jun-07 $925,000
    1% 5%

    38 BONN PL
    22-Oct-04 $454,000
    25-Jun-07 $830,000
    83% 25%

    50 FULTON ST
    1-Mar-04 $540,000
    2-Jul-07 $795,000
    47% 12%

    518-536 GREGORY AVE #B301
    16-Sep-04 $350,000
    2-Jul-07 $433,000
    24% 8%

    110 HAUXHURST AVE
    31-Mar-06 $465,100
    3-Jul-07 $575,000
    24% 18%
    Foreclosure

    476 GREGORY AVE
    7-Jan-05 $855,000
    17-Jul-07 $917,500
    7% 3%

    273-279 PARK AVE
    17-Aug-04 $245,000
    6-Aug-07 $417,000
    70% 20%

    35-39 51ST STREET #B2
    10-Mar-04 $223,000
    30-Aug-07 $315,000
    41% 10%

    600 HARBOR BLVD,UNIT#953
    16-Jan-07 $421,203
    30-Aug-07 $525,000
    25% 43%

    23 REGENCY PL
    18-Nov-04 $1,500,000
    10-Sep-07 $2,325,000
    55% 17%

    600 HARBOR BLVD,UNIT#960
    21-Nov-06 $450,000
    12-Sep-07 $535,000
    19% 24%

    518-536 GREGORY AVE #B406
    19-May-06 $410,000
    28-Sep-07 $415,000
    1% 1%

    69 LIBERTY PL
    3-Jun-04 $513,500
    1-Oct-07 $770,000
    50% 13%

    600 HARBOR BLVD,UNIT#954
    2-Feb-07 $451,676
    10-Oct-07 $534,000
    18% 28%

  193. pretorius says:

    Oops forgot to list the comp killers:

  194. reality hurts says:

    BC Bob,
    So?? Why does everyone avoid the question of how long they are willing to wait? Will you be here posting for the next 10 years or not?

  195. lisoosh says:

    You know, I think reality is right. Obviously the person who rents this Mendham home is nothing but a loser. Probably home schools too.

    http://homes.realtor.com/search/listingdetail.aspx?pg=7&cmid=1083488%2c1083489%2c1083599%2c1083605%2c1083606%2c1083626&typ=40&sid=e5123fbe82d14c17a9d3c8b77e7bd444&lid=1091261797&lsn=65&srcnt=65

  196. 3b says:

    #196 Sold second house in 2004, for 3 times what I paid for it. Will purchase most likely for cash before the end of 08.

  197. njpatient says:

    “pretorius Says:
    November 28th, 2007 at 2:03 pm
    Sorry njpatient for the mistaken ID. Please understand that is hard for me to keep track of all the people who are attempting to rubbish my posts.”

    lol – understood. Hope you caught what grim said earlier that I would agree with – you’re the contrarian that’s fun and educational to spar with (we’re otherwise stuck with bi, Reech and reinvestor, who are as educational as a warm bucket of hamster vomit) – hence you cause a lot of traffic.

  198. 3b says:

    #200 I think most people here have stated over and over agin, when they will buy.

    For myself I will buy before end of 08, and have no doubt it will be at a 25% dicount or more to 05 high.

  199. mikeinwaiting says:

    CB 183 Stable with a over 10 month inventory.Good for me at this rate they will just keep piling up.Look at Grims pace charts
    get the picture.The mortgage Sit. better where
    are they going to get their 20% DP.Remember those.Most of you are to young to have dealt with how tough it was to get a mortgage 20yrs
    ago it wasn’t fun.Worked RE over 20 yrs back early 80’s they were calling Jersey City gold coast then to.It hit the fan then & will again.
    The days of DP & tough lending standards are back this alone would depress the market.Now add in REOs, recession talk,taxes.Frankly it doesn’t mean sh8t what NAR says I just find it amuseing.

  200. njrebear says:

    We are thinking of second quarter 09. Our lease expires in mid 09.

  201. njpatient says:

    “Are you saying renters can’t get married, have kids, or enjoy life?”

    I’m not quite as ooooooooold as chifi, but I’d still have to kick my wife and vast quantity of kids out of the house.
    D’oh!

  202. njpatient says:

    hey chifi – do you have a relative named Pat?

  203. dreamtheaterr says:

    Sync, welcome back!

    Losing 2K each month is approx 4% a year on a $600K house. That’s pocket change for bi; only $50K losses will get his brain smoldering. The key to coming out ahead is how much principal you are (pre)paying back while your house is dropping in value.

    Of course Reech will come out and say that you have to start somewhere so buy today….. but when someone will barely pay back 5-6% of principal after 4 years of payments, there is no urgency to buy today.

  204. njpatient says:

    I will likely buy in January 2010 (and no, I don’t think the market will have recovered by then).

  205. 3b says:

    #198 pret:Reason I did this is I wanted to see if there were any comp killers. Also thought it would remind people that home prices are not falling everywhere and many submarkets remains solid.

    And you rpoved your point, the question I would have for you is will this continue?

    You of course belive that it will, or perhaps only prices will stagnate.

    I of course believe otherwise, no area is immune, seen and heard it all before.

    Lets see how things play out going forward.

    As I have said in the past, you have only seen the upside in real estate.

  206. BC Bob says:

    “So?? Why does everyone avoid the question of how long they are willing to wait? Will you be here posting for the next 10 years or not?”

    reality [200],

    Yes, probably discussing a different bubble.

    One mo time. If I decide to buy again, it will be at approx 30% off 2005. How long will I wait? Until the cows come home. That said, a much larger issue, to me, will be the state of the state. It may not be worth paying 30% off 2005 if the state continues to proceed in the same inept, corrupt path.

  207. pretorius says:

    3b,

    Prices are flattening in Weehawken. I don’t expect them to decline by 30%.

    I’ve only seen the upside in real estate?! I’m witnessing the downside right now.

  208. 3b says:

    #215 What you are witnessing is the start of the down side right now. Of course in my opinion it will only get worse.

    You may not expect decliens of 30%, but I can tell you this, it happened before.

    I know alot of people, who sold coops and condos at prices 50% less than what they paid for them, during the last down turn all in very desireable towns.

  209. pretorius says:

    So 3b, you going on record with 30% decline in NJ home prices?

  210. BC Bob says:

    “I’ve only seen the upside in real estate?! I’m witnessing the downside right now.”

    Pre,

    I sat next to nasdaq traders in 1998-2001, overnight stars. It’s funny they said exactly the same back then. They were witnessing the downside as the nasdaq consolidated, pulled back 5-10%. They flipped stocks, not RE. Amazing, different market same psychology.

  211. Clotpoll says:

    The people in the Gold Coast/Manhattan markets will be seen to have been the biggest stooges of all when everything’s said and done.

    They’re standing on the tracks, the train is in the distance, and it’s hurtling straight at them. Yet, no one even dares mention that tiny, flickering light that gets a little larger by the day.

    “Look at all the foreigners buying”; “it can’t happen here”; “we’re the financial center of the universe”; “all that bonus money will keep the party going”…give me a f-in break! Manhattan RE has dive-bombed before, and it will happen again. The only difference is, this time will be total annihilation, because the fall will be even further than can be imagined.

    Don’t think so? Take a look at some of the most prolific developers (e.g., Harry Macklowe), who are coming up a teensy bit short right now, due to overly sunny revenue projections on some pretty fancy addresses.

  212. BC Bob says:

    “So 3b, you going on record with 30% decline in NJ home prices?”

    pre,

    I’ve been on record, 30-40% off 2005, 5-7 years from the peak. However, I may have been too conservative regarding the % and the duration.

  213. chicagofinance says:

    pretorius Says:
    November 28th, 2007 at 3:32 pm
    I just looked home sales in my town (Weehawken)that closed in the last 6 months.

    Reason I did this is I wanted to see if there were any comp killers. Also thought it would remind people that home prices are not falling everywhere and many submarkets remains solid.

    Here are the results for homes that had been purchased during 2004-2007. I left out homes that sold for $1 or homes sold to family members.

    pret: you are going to post this nonsense with a straight face? you are disingenuous or naive…….

  214. pretorius says:

    Chicagofinance,

    My intention was 100% genuine. If you are going to make serious accusations about a person, then at least you should back them up with some evidence.

  215. chicagofinance says:

    pret: by the way….the RE lawyer guy that started the HTTA…that conglomeration of renegade Toll-bashers and gravitational black hole of intellect, made most of his earliest money buying Weehawken co-ops in 1990-91 for about 50-60% lower than they had traded hands in 1986-1988. Granted they were co-ops and Weehawken was more of a hole at that juncture.

  216. Clotpoll says:

    BC (218)-

    “I’ve only seen the upside in real estate?! I’m witnessing the downside right now.”

    BC, you beat me to it. How friggin’ absurd…this guy thinks the shower before the monsoon is the monsoon itself.

    Hey, pret, you want downside? Try this:

    You’re sitting in an RTC auction, watching brand-new Class A office buildings sell for .05 on the dollar. Mint property after mint property is being taken down for nothing.

    Finally, the property you want comes up on the block. You bid at the reserve…look around…and there are NO other bidders. The property is yours. You are ecstatic.

    Until you step forward to make your deposit and sign the papers, and some guy who looks like he forgot more about RE than you’ll ever know- and who looks like Boone Pickens (except meaner and smarter)- tells you your little piece of heaven isn’t even worth the pittance you just paid for it.

    Pret, that USED to be my own personal benchmark for how low things can go. This time around, I can’t even imagine what my own “nightmare moment” will entail.

    I keep having this vision that it may involve me and a group of bidders huddled around a garbage drum fire, though.

  217. pretorius says:

    Wow this is getting crazy.

    BC Bob says 30% off peak prices.

    Then chicagofinance says 50%-60%.

    Now Clotpoll is going with at least 95%.

  218. 3b says:

    #217 pret Yes I am,and I respectfully disagree with BC bob,as I believe it will not take 5 to 7 years, perhaps for the final 10% decline or so, but I belive the bulk of the 30% decline will be over the next 18 months or so.

    And of course as BC says given the dismal fiscal state of NJ, the declines could be more.

  219. Pat says:

    Welcome to my party, you guys.

    Been waiting a loooonnng time for you to show up.

    Pat

  220. Clotpoll says:

    pret (226)-

    That is not my call, at all. Thanks for the misrepresentation.

    My call is 35-40% off ’05 peaks.

  221. pretorius says:

    Clotpoll, clearly I was joking about the 95%. But thank you for going on record with a call. Is it for NJ or just your local submarket?

    By the way what is your submarket?

  222. njrebear says:

    Wow this is getting crazy.

    If that’s crazy then what is
    300-600K
    +5- -5%
    10-30%
    ??

  223. Clotpoll says:

    pret (230)-

    That’s my NJ call.

    My submarket is prestigious Hunterdon/Somerset.

  224. Clotpoll says:

    pret (230)-

    I should also add that I believe the hyperinflated areas of NJ may take a 50-55% hit.

  225. chicagofinance says:

    My sub-market is Filippo’s II on First Street in Hoboken….Luca Brasi is garbage…..

  226. pretorius says:

    Clotpoll,

    What do you think is hurting your area the most?

    Affordability
    Psychologogy
    Too much supply
    Stagnant job market for NJ middle managers

  227. Clotpoll says:

    Hey BC-

    Kohn statements today a little warmup for the PPT?

  228. chicagofinance says:

    Here we go……NJ Gold Coast Demand forecast….

    http://www.cnbc.com/id/22009743

  229. Clotpoll says:

    pret (235)-

    All of them.

    Oh, and nobody’s got a damned DP.

  230. njpatient says:

    225 bi
    how uplifting

  231. Clotpoll says:

    Chifi (237)-

    Those layoffs are all back office jobs in S. Dakota…

  232. chicagofinance says:

    pretorius Says:
    November 28th, 2007 at 4:58 pm
    Stagnant job market for NJ middle managers

    pret: this comment is so pretentious, please spare us…..

  233. John says:

    I bought my first place at an RTC auction at 25 cents on a dollar from the previous peak three years earlier.

  234. pretorius says:

    Actually Clotpoll a ton of them are in Orange County. That is why office market is tanking there but doing okay in New York.

  235. Clotpoll says:

    Chifi (241)-

    I’m tempted to ask Pret to take a look at median family incomes in Hunterdon & Somerset…but, naaah.

  236. Clotpoll says:

    pret-

    Keep living in denial. That way, it won’t hurt so bad when the 2,000 pound anvil smacks you in the face.

  237. t c m says:

    wasn’t it goldman that said 30% off nj prices?

    i’m not saying that they’re completely infallible, but, come on, you have to admit they know something about money and markets.

    30% off in this market is a ton. if i’m looking at houses in the 600-700 range, it’s 180-210 – which also translates to over 1000 a month in p&i saved. there’s a lot i can do with $1000 a month once i buy and my “life starts” – all for literally doing nothing!
    just waiting.

  238. reality hurts says:

    Clotpoll,
    I think you may have stuck the q-tip too far into your ear this morning…

  239. dreamtheaterr says:

    “this guy thinks the shower before the monsoon is the monsoon itself.”

    Clot, I happen to come from a forsaken place with the highest rainfall on Mother Earth. It also accounts for the highest density of alcoholics known to mankind (ok, I made the latter up but I think someone should do their PhD thesis on why it might be true). Perhaps’s its something in the air…the elephants have a penchant for getting drunk too, and it’s never a pretty sight.

  240. 3b says:

    The Lehman and HSBC cuts are in NY,as are many of the Bear Stearns and Morgan cuts. And if Citi does in fact lay off 45K, amny of them will be in the NYC area

  241. BC Bob says:

    “Wow this is getting crazy.”

    Pre,

    You want crazy? You should have sat next to me at closing in 9/2005. Never in my wildest dreams would I think someone would write a check, in that amount, for a pos. Loco.

    If you follow markets, a 30% decline after a 100% gain is nothing. Actually, I’m probably too conservative. If this market doesn’t decline 25-40%, it will be the first time in history that a bubble, any financial bubble, has not resulted in a bust. I’ll place my bet with history.

  242. pretorius says:

    Clotpoll,

    I already know. Those are within top 10 in country on most income metrics.

  243. pretorius says:

    JB, can you re-post that NJ home prices file I sent you a few months ago? It is the one that shows price history in nominal and real terms.

    It provides a nice illustration of history, and it is a good time for everybody to take a look at it.

  244. Clotpoll says:

    Hey Pret (243)-

    Don’t look now, but (from Bloomberg, today, 11/28/07):

    “In Manhattan, the world’s largest office market, the vacancy rate rose to 7.6 percent in October, the highest in a year, property brokerage Colliers ABR said. Rents increased 1.4 percent on average to $64.08 a square foot from September, the second-smallest month-to-month increase since June 2006.

    The Bloomberg Real Estate Investment Trust Index measuring the stocks of 126 publicly traded property companies dropped 30 percent from its peak in February.

    Developers such as billionaire Harry Macklowe, whose properties include the General Motors Building on New York’s Fifth Avenue, have struggled to finance deals.

    William Macklowe, Harry’s son and president of Macklowe Properties Inc., said in a September interview the firm may have to sell some real estate to pay back $3.4 billion of short-term debt used to buy seven buildings in New York. He didn’t return calls this week.”

  245. BC Bob says:

    “Kohn statements today a little warmup for the PPT?”

    Clot,

    Exactly what I thought. I was just a few days early.

  246. reality hurts says:

    Anyone care to explain how we will get to 35-50% off peak when median home prices keep going up in NJ?

  247. BC Bob says:

    “Anyone care to explain how we will get to 35-50% off peak when median home prices keep going up in NJ?’

    reality,

    How about 2 short sales, that I could have bought for 30% off 2005 in BC.

  248. syncmaster says:

    reality, a few hours ago we talked about how real life doesn’t stop for the housing market and how people base their decisions to buy on real life. Well, the decision to sell can only be postponed so long. Real life catches up and eventually you have to sell. Volume is low, median prices are high. Wait till real life catches up. Volume will go high and median prices?

  249. njrebear says:

    from 251
    Northeast median is close to 2004 (except for Reech, pret and bi’s investments). Prices are down 9% from June 2006. Wow!

  250. njrebear says:

    sorry it’s 9% from june 2009.

  251. njrebear says:

    june 2007.

  252. pretorius says:

    Clotpoll,

    I agree that Macklowe’s rent increase projections were too bullish. But that wasn’t a typical transaction – it represents the high water market of the real estate cycle.

    People aren’t bearish on New York office buildings. A few days ago, a guy agreed to buy an empty one for $800 per sf, and he needs to put a lot of $ into it before he can rent the space.

  253. njpatient says:

    “reality, a few hours ago we talked about how real life doesn’t stop for the housing market and how people base their decisions to buy on real life.”

    As we discussed yesterday, there are numerous reasons why selling is a must, and no reasons why buying is a must.

  254. chicagofinance says:

    clot: I thought Hunterdon’s mean average income went down after Jayson Williams’ contract expired?

  255. chicagofinance says:

    to add…wasn’t he the only rich guy out there? oh, and obviously Christofi’s family too now….?

  256. pretorius says:

    Lame nightlife in Hunterdom and Somerset considering income levels out there. Very difficult to live within walking distance of restaurants and bars. Also 1.5-2 hour commute to city.

  257. BC Bob says:

    “Very difficult to live within walking distance of restaurants and bars.”

    Pre,

    If walking distance to bars and commute to the city are your main criteria, live in Harrison, NJ. There is a bar on every corner. At one time it made the Guinness Book of World Records, most bars per square mile.

    Also, great commute. Path to downtown in 15 minutes.

  258. BC Bob says:

    WASHINGTON (MarketWatch) — The economic slowdown has begun, according to the Federal Reserve’s latest report on conditions across the country released Wednesday. The economy continued to grow, but at a reduced pace, according to the report, known informally as the Beige Book. The glut of available homes for sale is keeping downward pressure on house prices and construction activity. No turnaround is on the horizon until well into 2008, contacts said. Two of the few bright spots were manufacturing and tourism which benefit from the weaker dollar. The report found soft retail sales, pessimism about the holiday season and concern that goods are piling up on shelves. The financial market turmoil is impacting the market for credit. Business loans are down and standards for consumer loans are up. Not wanting to dwell on the weak bank sector, the report separated out “nonfinancial services” as an area of strength. Demand for legal services increased.

  259. pretorius says:

    Harrison is like Weehawken in many ways. But Harrison still in decline while Weehawken is on the way up.

    What bars to you recommend in Harrison? I hang out in west Hudson County sometimes and would like to check out new places there.

  260. BC Bob says:

    pre,

    I wouldn’t recommend any. I usually step over bodies on the way to the path in the morning. However, great places for a cheap shot and a beer.

  261. pretorius says:

    One thing I look at when evaluating urban neighborhoods is % of adults with college degrees.

    As of 2000, it was only 20% in Harrison but 37% in Weehawken. National average was 24%.

    I think growing number of college graduates is good indicator that a ‘hood is on the upswing, and you can find this data in each 10 year census.

    It flows into the black box I use to decide which urban neighborhoods will experience fastest increase in home prices. Rapid increase in college grads is on of the reasons I bought the in neighborhood I live in.

  262. Clotpoll says:

    delusional (247)-

    I think I got the Q-tip in just right.

    I pulled it out, and there you were, right on the end.

  263. Clotpoll says:

    …you quivering blob of festering ear discharge.

  264. BC Bob says:

    I would have thought that Harrison would be lower than 20%. I think Harrison may be stuffing the ballot.

  265. Clotpoll says:

    pret (271)-

    “One thing I look at when evaluating urban neighborhoods is % of adults with college degrees.”

    I look at that, too. It’s a great indicator of an overabundance of people with no real intellect or ability who believe themselves to be both educated and employable.

  266. Clotpoll says:

    BC (270)-

    “I usually step over bodies on the way to the path in the morning. However, great places for a cheap shot and a beer.”

    Can’t wait for the soccer stadium to be finished there. Just think…we already have a built-in supply of potential hooligans and the means to get them liquored up quickly.

  267. lisoosh says:

    BC (270)-

    “I usually step over bodies on the way to the path in the morning. However, great places for a cheap shot and a beer.”

    Cheap shot at what? :-)

  268. Clotpoll says:

    ChiFi (264)-

    “clot: I thought Hunterdon’s mean average income went down after Jayson Williams’ contract expired?”

    Don’t know about mean income, but our number of mean dudes sure went down when he left town…

  269. pretorius says:

    “I usually step over bodies on the way to the path in the morning. However, great places for a cheap shot and a beer”

    That goes for the entire county.

  270. Clotpoll says:

    pret (266)-

    “Lame nightlife in Hunterdom and Somerset considering income levels out there.”

    If your standard for “nightlife” includes $12/glass Chardonnay from some tank farm in the Central Valley and being surrounded by aging shrews covered by a slime of makeup and stuffed into some sort of full-body girdle, we are indeed lacking.

    I guess you’ve never been to the Plucky…

  271. pretorius says:

    Clotpoll, the wine I buy is that $8 stuff with the kangaroo logo. I am not very fancy. I like to go to bars in Union City and around Port Authority (9th Ave side).

  272. 3b says:

    #256 reality You need to understand just what median price means. Ah well another poor fool who bought at the top,and thinks he/she knows it all.

  273. rhymingrealtor says:

    Subject: Verizon Fios

    The Big Box: A 4ft by 5ft metal that goes on a pole every couple blocks had been installed on the pole right in front of my house last June. I get to see those circles of cable as shadows constantly through my blinds. I have continually complained about the signals it is sending directly to my brain to no avail.

    The service: I called customer service and was unable to get any prices unless I gave them my 16 digit customer number, which I did not have handy at the time of the call, after much fuss I got a supervisor who told to call the business office in the AM to get my number. They would give me no info till I gave them my number.

    Decided after my father got it and loved the brightness of his older TV’s, that I would call his salesmen let him come to my home get a commission and I would also get the free lcd flat screen tv they are offering with the package deal. This even after my neighbor had 2 appts that they never showed up for.
    Salesmand came, took my order tried to call it in and was told the service is not available to me. Now my father lives 3 blocks away and I look at that F**ing box every day. Even the salesman could’nt beleive how screwed up they are. I await a call from their engineering dept. I should have recieved the call by now but have not.
    Wonder if I should commit to them for 2 years…

    KL

  274. 3b says:

    #253 pret No need for files, those of us who lived it, know it, and price drops were ugly.

    And back then you actually had to qualify for a mtg. Time after time you refuse to recognize just how much recklessness was involved in this now ended run up in real estate prices. A

    s opposed to last time, where agin you actually ahd to qualify for a mortgage.

  275. Pat says:

    http://www.njbia.org/news_newsr_071128.asp

    They just did a summary of that on NJN.

  276. kettle1 says:

    283 RR,

    what town do you live in? last i heard, verizon was slowing its expansion, the have more work then they can do at the moment according to a tech i spoke to recently. Most techs are doing 60 hrs/wk min and not keeping up with work load. as a consequence, outlying areas that have just recently been wired and are not considered prime territory are being given a cold shoulder until they catch up on the work load. This was from a tech i spoke with about 3 weeks ago

  277. 3b says:

    #245 clot: its no use, its like trying to reason with an infant.

    Keep in mind this is the same individual who said jobs do not matter as wealthy Ivy League graduates will come to NYC even without jobs and their parents will buy them 700k condos on the gold coast, therefore prices will not fall.

  278. kettle1 says:

    OT, but ….

    the trouble with beer

    http://tinyurl.com/2m5zvx (SFW)

  279. Clotpoll says:

    3b (287)-

    It is frustrating, because somewhere in the back of my mind, a little voice keeps telling me that through such mindlessness is how recessions turn into depressions.

  280. kettle1 says:

    Clot, 3b

    A fundamental difference between Pre and others on this board ( i think you guys agree with me in general) is that Pre believes that the middle and lower classes are essentially irrelevant (i.e the rich mommies and daddies will buy homes for their little tommy’s and sue’s).
    Others on this board realize that if you do not have a strong middle class you may start to resemble mumbai more then NY

  281. Clotpoll says:

    Vodka (290)-

    Perhaps pret is the perfect postmodern New Jerseyan. Pretty soon, it’ll just be a state of rich people and their poor minion of state-supported footmen.

    Resemble Mumbai? It’ll be more like Monty Python & the Holy Grail:

    MORTICIAN: Who’s that then?

    CUSTOMER: I don’t know.

    MORTICIAN: Must be a king.

    CUSTOMER: Why?

    MORTICIAN: He hasn’t got shit all over him.

  282. Clotpoll says:

    vodka (290)-

    Not to go on, but it is pure insanity to believe that most of those little Tommy and Sues have:

    1. Completed their 4-7 year journey through higher education without completely breaking their parents.

    2. Learned much of anything…including how to continue to learn.

    I have a passel of nieces and nephews who have been graduating college over the past few years. I still have 2-3 about to graduate. These are very bright, accomplished kids from good families. The one common denominator amongst them is: not a single one seems to have gotten anything out of the experience. Doubly frustrating is that none of them has acquired a simple, marketable skill. Hell, not a single one of them can even cook an egg. They are all underemployed and in need of basic vocational training (which they are too silly and proud to pursue).

    Several of their parents, though, are on the brink of financial ruin.

  283. Clotpoll says:

    I can go to one of BC Bob’s shot-and-a-beer bars in Harrison and learn how to binge drink far more cheaply than coaxing my Dad to send me to Syracuse, laying out 40K/year and calling it “education”.

  284. chicagofinance says:

    Clotpoll Says:
    November 28th, 2007 at 6:36 pm
    pret (266)-“Lame nightlife in Hunterdom and Somerset considering income levels out there.” If your standard for “nightlife” includes $12/glass Chardonnay from some tank farm in the Central Valley and being surrounded by aging shrews covered by a slime of makeup and stuffed into some sort of full-body girdle, we are indeed lacking.
    I guess you’ve never been to the Plucky…

    clot…you beat me to the punch…..oh Plucky RIP…….

  285. chicagofinance says:

    clot: How about toilet papering some houses in Califon?

  286. rhymingrealtor says:

    Kettle

    I have neighbors on this same block getting Verizon. They are not handling the business very well, makes me very leary. When I call cable 24/7 they know who I am, I need no code/customer number. I guess its a start-up new business issue, but who wants to deal with a company that can’t handle it’s start-up?

    KL

  287. chicagofinance says:

    bost/clot: Speaking of shot-and-a-beer….I desperately miss Dan Lynch’s Blues Bar on 2nd/14th….what a tragedy that it is gone…..

  288. chicagofinance says:

    …and with a KFC on the corner, it had the best kitchen in NYC…

  289. Clotpoll says:

    ChiFi (294/95)-

    Hey, we can go roll some houses in Califon (yuk, yuk) after a couple of shots of popskull and a little foie gras at the new, improved Plucky:

    http://www.pluckemininn.com/overview.html

    No parking lot fights at the new version, though. And you can’t throw things at the (nonexistent) TV during Jets games. :(

  290. chicagofinance says:

    Essex: another 1996 Hyde Park memory was this tune….great glam rock guitar riff for these one hit wonders, but the lyrics are right out of the playbook of an autistic monkey….anyway, the lead singer is Mr. Liv Tyler, so he doesn’t have to worry about paying the rent….

    http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=PYxl-4oRu1U

  291. chicagofinance says:

    Clotpoll Says:
    November 28th, 2007 at 9:38 pm
    http://www.pluckemininn.com/overview.html
    No parking lot fights at the new version, though. And you can’t throw things at the (nonexistent) TV during Jets games. :(

    clot: someone needs to bacon wrap these people and leave them for dead on 202/206

  292. Clotpoll says:

    ChiFi (301)-

    The stiffs are all inside.

    What a pretentious POS restaurant. The owner is living a real-life Brewster’s Millions in this joint. Like fer sure I’m going to Bedminster and lay out $400 for Gaja Barbaresco and desserts that look like plastic products.

  293. jmacdaddio says:

    I dated a girl who wouldn’t stop going on about the old Plucky. She had a bit of a tough chick attitude so I’m not surprised she liked it. Heh, she was one of the many who thought that buying a condo in NJ in 2003 was like winning the lottery.

  294. njpatient says:

    “Cheap shot at what? :-)”

  295. njpatient says:

    281
    Pret
    PA bars? Meet you tomorrow…

  296. njpatient says:

    292 clot

    Damn if that isn’t as big a bubble as RE. The college racket has got to give soon – I think the cost to value ratio is even worse than residential RE in 10/05.

  297. 3b says:

    #290 kettle: Agreed. There may coem a day when pret finds that he too is irrelevant.

  298. Lowgrasysor says:

    I’d prefer reading in my native language, because my knowledge of your languange is no so well. But it was interesting!

  299. Lowgrasysor says:

    I’d prefer reading in my native language, because my knowledge of your languange is no so well. But it was interesting! Look for some my links:

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