December 2007


OK you pompous prognosticators, dust off that crystal ball and lets hear ‘em!

Ground Rules
Predictions provided should either be for June 30th, 2008 or December 31th, 2008, please specify.

Provide justification for your forecast, where applicable (unless you are just making it up, if so, state that).

You may provide any caveats and/or assumptions that your forecast is based on.

You need not provide a forecast for all categories below.

Where applicable, forecasts are judged against the surveys/reports listed.

Real Estate
National Existing Home Sales - NAR
Median Existing Home Price - NAR
Median Existing Home Price - S&P Case Shiller HPI
Median Existing Home Price - OFHEO HPI

New Jersey Existing Home Sales - NAR/NJAR
Median Existing Home Price - NAR/NJAR
Median Existing Home Price - S&P Case Shiller HPI
Median Existing Home Price - OFHEO HPI

National New Home Sales - NAHB
Median New Home Price - NAHB

Commodities
Oil
Gold

Equities
United States
International Developed Markets
Emerging Markets

Mortgage Financing
30-Year Fixed - Freddie Mac PMMS
15-Year Fixed - Freddie Mac PMMS
5/1-Year ARM - Freddie Mac PMMS

Macroeconomic
10y Treasury
Fed Funds Rate
National Unemployment Rate
New Jersey Unemployment Rate

Oddball
Anything else you’d like to make a prediction about.

From the Wall Street Journal:

Lender Lobbying Blitz Abetted Mortgage Mess
Ameriquest Pressed For Changes in Laws;
A Battle in New Jersey
By GLENN R. SIMPSON
December 31, 2007

During the housing boom, the subprime industry succeeded at more than just writing mortgages. It also shot down efforts by some states to curtail risky lending to borrowers with spotty credit.

Ameriquest Mortgage Co., until recently one of the nation’s largest subprime lenders, was at the center of those battles. Working with a husband-and-wife team of Washington lobbyists, it handed out more than $20 million in political donations and played a big role in persuading legislators in New Jersey and Georgia to relax tough new laws. Those victories, in turn, helped blunt efforts by other states to crack down on reckless lending, critics of the industry contend.

Executives at Ameriquest, based in Orange, Calif., acknowledge that the company lobbied heavily against state lending restrictions, but say that other subprime lenders did so as well. In fact, a host of subprime lenders and banking trade groups, including Citigroup Inc., Wells Fargo & Co., Countrywide Financial Corp. and the Mortgage Bankers Association, spent heavily on lobbying and political giving.

Data from federal and state campaign-finance records, Internal Revenue Service filings, and the National Institute on Money in State Politics show that from 2002 through 2006, Ameriquest, its executives and their spouses and business associates donated at least $20.5 million to state and federal political groups. In comparison, over the same time period, Countrywide Financial, another large subprime lender, gave about $2 million in campaign gifts, and spent an additional $6.7 million lobbying in Washington, records indicate.

Much of Ameriquest’s efforts took place below the national radar, at the state level. State legislatures wanted to crack down on so-called predatory lending, which refers to the use of deceptive or unfair practices in the sale of high-interest loans, often to low-income borrowers who can’t afford them. In New Jersey, for example, lawmakers passed a strong predatory-lending law in 2003 that made it difficult for Ameriquest to continue doing business there.

Problems were also developing for the industry in New Jersey. The state Assembly there passed a similar law against predatory lending, the Home Ownership Security Act. It too contained a tangible-net-benefit rule, but it didn’t provide much guidance on how the standard would be applied. “The New Jersey law makes it impossible for anyone to be in compliance,” Mr. Bass, the Ameriquest lawyer, complained at an industry conference.

In October 2002, Ameriquest and Mr. Andrews’s lobbying firm contributed $4,500 to five New Jersey state senators, state campaign reports indicate. The American Financial Services Association, a subprime industry group that included Ameriquest, predicted the law would cause lenders to abandon the state. Nevertheless, in the spring of 2003, the bill passed the state Senate and was signed into law.

At that point, opponents of the new law got some help. Just as it had done in Georgia, Standard & Poor’s said it wouldn’t rate some securities containing loans from the state. In addition, federal banking regulators issued a series of regulatory orders banning states from applying state consumer-protection rules to federally chartered banks and thrifts, part of a turf battle between federal and state regulators. That put pressure on states to soften predatory-lending rules so federally chartered banks didn’t have an advantage over state-chartered ones.

The subprime industry set to work trying to roll back the New Jersey law. The National Home Equity Mortgage Association, one of the subprime groups run by Mr. Andrews, released a survey predicting that the law would reduce mortgages in New Jersey by $4 billion.

Ameriquest and Mr. Andrews’s lobbying firm began handing out campaign contributions. Among the recipients were John Adler and Gerald Cardinale, two state senators who had voted for the new law. In October 2003, Mr. Cardinale, a Republican, received a $2,200 donation from Ameriquest, according to state election records. In November 2003, Mr. Adler, a Democrat, received $1,200 from the lobbying firm, the records indicate. In early December, the two senators introduced a bill to make changes sought by the industry.

That December, Neil Cohen, a state assemblyman who had voted for the new law, received a $500 donation from the lobbying firm, state records show. The Assembly’s Financial Institutions Committee, which was headed by Mr. Cohen, offered its own legislation to soften the lending law. Mr. Cohen couldn’t be reached for comment.

In 2004, as debate over the predatory-lending law dragged on, Ameriquest and Mr. Andrews’s lobbying firm together donated an additional $3,200 to Mr. Cohen, $1,100 to Mr. Cardinale and $1,300 to Mr. Adler, according to state records. Ameriquest gave $10,000 to the Democratic Party in the Assembly, $10,000 to Democrats in the Senate, and $7,000 to Senate Republicans, the records indicate.

Mr. Andrews’s wife, Lisa, then head of government affairs at Ameriquest, was also focused on New Jersey. On the Web site of her Washington public-relations firm, she says that she “built a coalition of mortgage brokers, mortgage bankers, appraisers, title companies, and others involved in home mortgage lending to create a grass-roots lobbying campaign that produced 7,000 emails and faxes to state policymakers in a six-week time frame.”

In June 2004, New Jersey’s Assembly and Senate unanimously passed bills that rolled back parts of the earlier law, including the tangible-net-benefit rule. Mr. Bass, the Ameriquest lawyer, announced that the company would “be offering a full range of loans in New Jersey.” Thousands of New Jersey homeowners subsequently refinanced existing mortgages or took out new loans with Ameriquest before the subprime market tanked. Many of those loans are now in foreclosure.

From the Record:

Senior housing age limit lowered

The council recently lowered the eligible age for age-restricted communities in the borough because a senior complex wasn’t selling its units.

Now residents must be 55 — not 62 — to move into the Stone Ledge Senior Housing complex — the only such community in the borough.

Condominiums have been slow to move in Stone Ledge, despite the initial excitement when the first unit went on the market. Since then, only one-third of the 36 luxury units have sold. The developer has even offered a 20 percent discount for Emerson residents, said developer Paul Van Dyke of Prudential Galaxy Real Estate.

Two units have sold since the restriction was lowered this month, Van Dyke said. The law creating a special zone for age-restricted housing was crafted specifically for the complex.

Watkins said the poor housing market has made it difficult to sell units. Sales are conditioned on the buyers being able to sell their homes, and Watkins said several potential buyers backed out after their homes didn’t sell.

Borough officials who voted for the rule change do not think it will significantly affect Emerson seniors who choose to buy in the complex.

“The prices on the units themselves are driven by market forces; they’re not controlled by the developer,” said Councilman Christopher Heyer. “The real estate market has taken a hit, and there aren’t as many buyers as there were before.”

Similar developments have also run into difficulties. K. Hovnanian Homes recently sold the Concierge Club, a for-sale senior condominium building in Teaneck, to a company that is converting the units to rentals. The company said at the time that the changing real estate market left them unable to absorb the slow selling pace.

From the Home News Tribune:

State homeowners “coped with the bursting of the housing bubble”

In June, Mary Lou Mangarella listed her New Brunswick home with discount real-estate broker Foxtons, in a move that unwittingly placed her smack dab in one of the biggest business stories of the year.

With the housing market in a steep decline, West Long Branch-based Foxtons went out of business in September. Her home sat for three more months until her Foxtons contract expired. And she finally sold it for 16 percent less than she originally asked.

“It was a nightmare,” said the 77-year-old Mangarella, who moved to Milltown in Middlesex County.

She summed up 2007 for many. Thousands of New Jersey homeowners coped with the bursting of the housing bubble. Home builders and real-estate agencies struggled sometimes futilely to stay in business. And the economic impact reverberated to local banks and retailers.

Through it all, the economy managed to stay afloat. New Jersey added jobs, albeit slowly. A regional mall lifted the curtain on a giant expansion. And telephone, cable and Internet companies slugged it out for customers with mixed results.

“The good news is we didn’t slip into a no-go mode,” Rutgers University economist James W. Hughes said. “The bad news is, we didn’t rev up to a go-go mode either.”

The housing market, which lost steam in 2006, fell into an outright slump in 2007. The median price of an existing single-family home in the region that includes Monmouth and Ocean counties was $391,000 during the third quarter, down 5.7 per-cent from the same quarter a year ago, according to the National Association of Realtors.

Analysts said the prior growth in the price of homes outpaced wages, setting the stage for a steep correction that played havoc with homeowners, companies and investors.

The real-estate downturn caught up with other companies in 2007.

Foxtons, which made its name by offering discount com-missions, closed in September after it ran out of money. It laid off more than 300 workers and filed for Chapter 11 bankruptcy with a reported $488,000 in as-sets and $40.9 million in liabilities.

Metro Homes, a Hoboken developer, halted construction in December on its 224-unit Esperanza high-rise in Asbury Park, citing poor real-estate conditions.

“We are convinced that the national mortgage crisis now impacting real-estate markets around the country represents a temporary setback, and we remain fully committed to Asbury Park and its rebirth,” Dean Geibel, president of Metro Homes, told the Asbury Park Press.

A quick real-estate recovery didn’t materialize.

One reason: With home prices climbing beyond their reach earlier this decade, many consumers needed to resort to unconventional financing, including subprime loans. Some of those buyers had poor credit histories. Others didn’t have money for a down payment.

The loans, which carried high interest rates, were affordable in the beginning. But after a year or two, the interest rate ad-justed. The payments rose. And many homeowners had to default.

From the Record:

Laying the foundation for a deal

Heading into 2008, the outlook for housing is more promising for buyers than sellers. Most analysts expect home sales to be slow, with flat or declining prices. But whatever happens, both buyers and sellers can increase their chances of getting what they want by making the right moves. Here are our best tips:

- Become a better borrower. The mortgage industry has tightened lending, and buyers now need better credit histories, and more income and assets.

- Build a bigger down payment — preferably at least 10 percent. The no-down-payment loans that were so prevalent a couple of years ago are scarce these days.

- Shop around for the best housing fit. A few years ago, buyers had to bid on homes as soon as they saw them, or risk losing out. In today’s slower market, there’s a lot of inventory to choose from and buyers can take their time. Take photos and keep records of homes you’re interested in. The more homes you see (especially new construction), the harder to remember which was which.

- Shop for the best mortgage deal. There are still plenty of mortgages out there, averaging less than 7 percent, for qualified buyers. Check regional banks and savings and loans, mortgage bankers and mortgage brokers. Don’t go with the first company you talk to, and don’t just go with your real estate agent’s recommendation.

- Don’t be shy about negotiating; many sellers will accept offers below asking price. But be diplomatic. Realtors say many buyers are coming in with offers so low that they upset the seller.

- Choose your real estate agent with care. There are many who have had no experience in dealing with a housing slump. According to a survey by the National Association of Realtors taken at the peak of the market in 2005, just over half of its members had four years’ experience or less. The last big slump was in the early ’90s.

- Price your home correctly. In a market in which no one is sure whether prices have bottomed out or when it will happen, this is like trying to shoot a moving target. Yet this is the most important part of the sales process.

“Everything in this market is pricing; location is second,” said Antoinette Gangi of Re/Max Real Estate Associates in Woodcliff Lake. “Everyone wants a good price, a steal. If we’ve got a great location, we can hold out a little bit on price. If you have a location near a main road, or there’s a stream or easements on the property, you may have to adjust the price.”

- Prepare your house for sale. You need to de-clutter and de-personalize your space. Think “homey” in a “model-home” kind of way.

- Finally, repeat this mantra often: The first offer may be the best offer. “Usually, your first offer is your best offer,” said Ann Murad of Re/Max Real Estate Associates in Woodcliff Lake. “I put a home on the market in February. It was listed at $469,000, and the sellers got an offer for $445,000. They didn’t take it. Every single offer they got after that kept coming in $5,000 lower increments. They wound up selling the house for $410,000. They said to me, ‘Ann, we should have listened to you.’ “

This is the time and place to post observations about your local areas, comments on news stories or the New Jersey housing market, open house reports, etc. If you have any questions you wanted to ask earlier in the week but never posted them up, let’s have them. Also a good place to post suggestions, requests for information, criticism, and praise.

For readers that have never commented, there is a link at the top of each message that is typically labelled “[#] Comments“. Go ahead and give that a click, you might be missing out on a world of information you didn’t know about. While you are there, introduce yourselves to everyone.

For new readers that have only read the messages displayed on the main page, take a look through the archives, a substantial amount of information has been put online in the past year. The archives can be accessed by using the links found in the menus on the right hand side of the page.

From Bloomberg:

U.S. November New-Home Sales Probably Fell to Near 11-Year Low

Sales of new homes in the U.S. fell in November, approaching an 11-year low and signaling no end to the housing recession that’s threatening to stall growth in 2008, economists said before a report today.

Purchases fell to an annual pace of 717,000, according to the median forecast in a Bloomberg News survey of 68 economists, from 728,000 in October. The 716,000 pace reached in September was the lowest since 1996.

The residential real-estate slump, already the deepest in 16 years, shows no sign of ending as discounts fail to lure buyers and mounting foreclosures swell the glut of unsold properties. Falling property values may cause consumer spending to cool, boosting the odds the expansion will come to an end.

“The housing recession continues to grind away,” said Brian Bethune, U.S. economist at Global Insight Inc. in Lexington, Massachusetts. “Imbalances in the housing market overall are being exacerbated by a rising number of homes being reverted to the market due to foreclosures.”

Economists’ forecasts ranged from 685,000 to 750,000. The Commerce Department report is due at 10 a.m. in Washington.

The housing recession has deepened since the August turmoil in subprime mortgages led to a worldwide credit shortage. Stricter borrowing standards and a freeze on lending to borrowers with poor credit put mortgages out of reach for more potential buyers. That’s driving home prices lower, weakening sales as people hold out for even bigger reductions.

Sales of new houses will probably tumble 8.9 percent in 2008 after a 25 percent drop this year, according to a Dec. 13 forecast from Fannie Mae, the largest mortgage buyer. Sales of new homes in October were already down 48 percent from their July 2005 peak.

From the NY Times:

Home Prices Fell Faster in October

The decline in home prices accelerated and spread to more regions of the country in October, according to data released Wednesday.

Prices fell 6.1 percent from October 2006 in 20 large metropolitan areas, according to Standard & Poor’s/Case-Shiller indexes, compared with a 4.9 percent decline in September. On a monthly basis, prices fell 1.4 percent in October, the fastest they have declined in at least the last seven years.

During the boom, rising home prices increased consumer spending because people felt more wealthy and were able to borrow against their new home equity. Now that process is reversing itself, said Patrick Newport, an economist at Global Insight, a research firm outside Boston. “And the foreclosure rates are going to go up a little more. If prices are falling, you are more likely to default” because the house may be worth less than the mortgage on it.

“It has been surprisingly resilient,” Robert J. Shiller, the Yale economist and a creator of the home price indexes, said about the economy. He added that it was difficult to determine what impact the weakness in housing would have on the economy going forward.

“We are in uncharted territory,” he said. “This was the biggest housing boom we have ever seen.”

Edward E. Leamer, an economist at the University of California, Los Angeles, said the declines in Seattle and elsewhere should not be surprising because they were also caught up in the housing boom that was fueled by low interest rates and lax lending standards.

“Finance is not local,” he said as a counterpoint to the maxim that real estate is local. “The availability of mortgages at extremely easy terms affected every home in the United States.”

From the Wall Street Journal:

Pace of Decline
In Home Prices
Sets a Record
By JAMES R. HAGERTY and KELLY EVANS
December 27, 2007

A closely watched gauge of U.S. home prices shows they are falling sharply across most of the nation, as a deepening slump in the housing market threatens to damp consumer spending.

Home prices in 10 major metropolitan areas in October were down 6.7% from a year earlier, according to the S&P/Case-Shiller home-price indexes, released yesterday by credit-rating firm Standard & Poor’s. That exceeded the previous record year-to-year decline of 6.3% in April 1991, when the economy was emerging from a recession.

The silver lining behind the latest home-price data is that they signal the market is making what most economists see as a necessary adjustment, dragging home prices back into closer alignment with Americans’ ability to pay. The market is working its way “back to reality,” says David Seiders, chief economist of the National Association of Home Builders. He thinks house prices will bottom out by early 2009.

Some other economists say that might not happen before 2010. “The housing shock is only about halfway over, and housing prices will continue to fall well into 2009,” says Lehman Brothers economist Michelle Meyer.

During the housing boom in the first half of this decade, fast-rising home prices made it easy for homeowners to take out home-equity loans or refinance their primary mortgages to extract some cash. That helped sustain consumer spending, which accounts for about 70% of U.S. economic activity.

Economists now worry that falling home prices will prompt consumers to pull back on spending enough to slow growth or even tip the economy into recession. “Eventually what’s happening in the housing market is going to catch up with us,” says Patrick Newport, an economist at research-firm Global Insight Inc.

The S&P/Case-Shiller index showed that some of the fastest declines in home prices are in metropolitan areas that were among the hottest during the housing boom. Prices were down 12.4% from a year earlier in Miami, 11.1% in San Diego, 10.7% in Las Vegas and 10.6% in Phoenix.

Home prices are still up from a year ago in some cities, such as Seattle and Charlotte, N.C. And people who bought their homes several years ago still are sitting on sizable gains in most of the country.

The boom more than doubled prices in many populous areas near the coasts. The run-up was fueled in part by unusually low interest rates, which slashed the cost of monthly mortgage payments. In addition, in the wake of the technology-stock bubble, many Americans viewed real estate as a safer investment than stocks, and so poured increasing sums into second homes and rental properties. Home sales began to slow in mid-2005. Prices leveled off and then started declining in 2006. Over the past year, mortgage defaults have soared, leading to rapid growth in foreclosures.

But the recovery of the housing market is likely to be a gradual process. That’s partly because the boom left prices so far out of whack with incomes. As measured by the S&P/Case-Shiller national index, home prices jumped 74% in the six years through 2006. During the same period, U.S. median household income rose 15%. (Neither figure is adjusted for inflation.) That made housing unaffordable for many Americans.

For a few years, lax lending standards — some loans required no down payments and offered low introductory interest rates — meant borrowers could buy more expensive houses than they could really afford. But lenders have been burned by a surge in defaults that started in 2006, and such mortgages generally are no longer available. That means house prices will have to fall to a level potential buyers can afford.

Mark Zandi, chief economist of Moody’s Economy.com, a research firm in West Chester, Pa., predicts that on average U.S. house prices will decline about 12% by the second quarter of 2009 from their peak in the second quarter of 2006. He expects household income to rise by about the same amount over that period.

The mortgage market also needs to adjust further. Most of the funding for home loans comes from investors who buy securities backed by bundles of mortgages. Since August, many of those investors have shunned the market amid fears of rising defaults. As a result, lenders generally are focusing on loans that can be sold to government-sponsored investors Fannie Mae or Freddie Mac, or insured by the Federal Housing Administration. So-called jumbo loans — those above $417,000, too big to be sold to Fannie or Freddie — have grown much more expensive, deterring buyers in high-cost areas.

The current scarcity of funds available for mortgage lending creates a chicken-and-egg situation, says Prof. Leamer. Investors who provide funding for home loans don’t want to commit more money until they believe the housing market is getting better. But it’s hard for the housing market to rebound as long as mortgage credit is tight. Lower prices eventually will break this impasse, by luring buyers back into the market and reassuring investors that the market is finding a bottom, he says.

From Standard and Poor’s:

Broadbased, Record Declines in Home Prices in October According to the
S&P/Case-Shiller® Home Price Indices
(PDF)

Data through October 2007, released today by Standard & Poor’s for its S&P/Case-Shiller® Home Price Indices, the leading measure of U.S. home prices, show broadbased declines in the prices of existing single family homes across the United States, marking the 10th consecutive month of negative annual returns and the 23rd consecutive month of decelerating returns.

The chart above depicts the annual returns of the 10-City Composite and the 20-City Composite Indices. The 10-City Composite’s annual decline of 6.7% is a record low. The previous largest decline on record was 6.3% recorded in April 1991. In October, the 20-City Composite recorded an annual decline of 6.1%.

“No matter how you look at these data, it is obvious that the current state of the single-family housing market remains grim,” says Robert J. Shiller, Chief Economist at MacroMarkets LLC. “Not only did the 10-City Composite post a record low in its annual growth rate, but 11 of the 20 metro areas did the same. If you look at the monthly figures, every MSA went down in both October and September. Eleven of the 20 MSAs, in addition to the two composites, recorded their single largest monthly decline on record in October. For both the 10-City and 20-City composites this was a decline of 1.4% over September”

From the New York Times:

Frozen Rates, Falling Prices

THE Bush administration’s mortgage rescue plan will worsen, not alleviate, the problems in the housing market.

We are suffering from a home value crisis, not simply a credit crisis. If home prices were still rising, defaults would be low, investment returns would be high, borrowers would still be cashing out equity, and lenders would be showering credit on home buyers.

Falling prices reverse this dynamic. A recent study by the Federal Reserve Bank of Boston found that most foreclosures result from falling home prices, not from the resetting of mortgage rates.

And if rates are frozen for some subprime mortgages, standards for most new loans will become increasingly strict. Lenders will have to factor in the added risk of having their contracts rewritten when borrowers default. Higher down payments, mortgage rates and required credit scores — along with lower loan-to-income ratios and perhaps the death of adjustable-rate loans altogether — will further push down home prices.

Whether or not their payment levels are frozen, borrowers with loans that are greater than the values of their homes will have few incentives to keep paying their mortgages or to maintain their properties. Why spend more on a home in which they have no equity and which they may lose to foreclosure anyway?

Having put nothing down or having extracted equity in previous refinances, most subprime borrowers will lose nothing financially from foreclosure. In some cases the low teaser rates allowed them to pay less than what they might otherwise have paid in rent. The real losses are borne by the lenders.

Proponents suggest that a rate freeze will buttress home prices by keeping foreclosed homes off the market. But that is a stay of execution, not a pardon. Most homes temporarily saved from foreclosure will continue to depreciate as new buyers fail to qualify for loans. Lenders will be on the hook for even more losses than if the foreclosures had taken place sooner.

Everyone seems to agree that a return to traditional lending standards is a good idea, but no one seems willing to accept a return to rational prices as a consequence.

From the Philly Inquirer:

States, feds must impose tighter lending standards

The Federal Reserve’s proposals last week to address deception and fraud in mortgage lending will all be for naught unless the states, the Fed, and other federal agencies tighten their enforcement of the lending rules.

Lending standards weakened sharply in 2005 and 2006 as home prices soared. Fraud and predatory lending were rampant in the subprime market, which served borrowers with the weakest credit histories.

Yet there wasn’t any federal sheriff. No one made sure that borrowers received complete and clear information from lenders so they would know what they were getting into - and that lenders checked to be sure borrowers would be able to handle the monthly payments. During the housing boom of the early 2000s, lenders were so anxious to write mortgages that information provided was sometimes misleading or fraudulent, and borrowers’ financial backgrounds weren’t verified.

At least eight federal agencies, including the Federal Reserve and even the FBI, have had some oversight responsibility for mortgage lending. Also, mortgage brokers and non-bank lenders are regulated at the state level.

“This does not change the current enforcement scheme,” a senior Fed official acknowledged when explaining the rules proposed by the Fed last week. He was one of a team of officials who briefed reporters on the condition that they not be identified by name.

But the status-quo enforcement is a problem, given the weak track record on self-regulation by industry and widely varied government enforcement.

“I think, with the subprime blowup, we’ve seen that markets aren’t good at governing themselves,” said Kurt Eggert, a law professor at Chapman University in Orange, Calif.

Eggert, who is finishing a three-year term on the Fed’s consumer advisory committee, credited Fed Chairman Ben S. Bernanke with recognizing the need for tighter enforcement rules. His predecessor, Alan Greenspan, did not.

From the Wall Street Journal:

Profit Outlook Darkens for Big Banks
By DAVID REILLY and DAVID ENRICH
December 26, 2007; Page C1

For major banks, the next few years will be a return to a simpler and possibly less-profitable time.

The subprime crisis and ensuing credit crunch have thrown a wrench into the highly profitable bank business model: Make loans that are then sold off to investors while arranging corporate financing through off-balance-sheet vehicles that keep banks’ capital costs down.

Now, banks are holding on to more of the loans they make, as they did years ago. And the off-balance-sheet lending business is crippled. It isn’t clear how long this will last, or how the banking model might evolve in response to the current market crisis. What is clear is that some of the banks’ more profitable lines of business have been shut, either temporarily or permanently.

“Banks are going to have to think real hard about what their new business model is,” said Christopher Whalen, managing director at Institutional Risk Analytics, a banking research firm. “It was a different world when they could just set up another [off-balance-sheet vehicle] and put this stuff out there. It gave them unlimited flexibility in balance-sheet management.”

The originate-and-sell business model “encouraged reckless lending” that triggered the current mortgage morass, Mr. Cassidy said. Keeping loans on banks’ books will help avoid future meltdowns that could torpedo years of profits.

Meantime, changes being wrought to the banking business model are quickly becoming apparent. Citigroup has seen the amount of loans and leases it holds in inventory — and doesn’t plan to sell to investors — increase to about $697 billion at the end of September, up about 9% over six months, according to data from IRA.

Banks are likely to make up for those lost fees by increasing the interest rates they charge on loans, Mr. Poulos added. But that will diminish companies’ ability to take on debt, which could hurt the wider economy.

“Lending is going to be tight for the next year or two,” said David Hendler, an analyst at CreditSights Inc.

From the NY Daily News:

Bank protesters say predatory loans threatening to make them homeless

Gloria Knight hasn’t been able to heat her home to a comfortable temperature this winter.

The 64-year-old Brooklyn woman also keeps her modest, three-bedroom house in East New York dark most nights to save on electricity bills - and has even been skipping meals.

“I’m trying to be very economical and stay within my budget,” she said. “But that means a lot of sacrifice.”

On Monday, Knight joined about two dozen homeowners in a protest outside a Washington Mutual bank branch in Manhattan, where many say they took out predatory loans.

They demanded that bank officials meet with them to restructure their loan packages - and they held signs declaring the “Banks Stole Christmas.”

For Knight, a pastor who relies on Social Security for income, this is a new and harsh reality since the interest rate on her mortgage recently ballooned from 9% to 18%.

She is among the thousands of New Yorkers who fear they will be left homeless because of the subprime mess.

As teaser rates are reset monthly, foreclosures in the city - particularly in low-income parts of Queens and Brooklyn - keep rising.

Milagros Munoz, a 46-year-old mother of three from Brooklyn, said she is buckling under the pressure of paying $4,100 a month for two loans on her East New York house.

Munoz said she was initially given low interest rates when her mortgage broker lied on her loan application - stating her monthly income as $14,000 - without her knowledge.

She doesn’t earn anything close to that as a dental assistant.

“I’m on a financial freeze,” Munoz said. “I can’t go anywhere or do anything. When my rate went up, all I kept asking myself was, ‘How am I going to get through today with what I have to pay?’”

From the IMF Finance and Development Magazine:

Subprime: Tentacles of a Crisis

How could a modest increase in seriously delinquent subprime mortgages, which amounted to an additional $34 billion in troubled loans, so disrupt the $57 trillion U.S. financial system last summer that worldwide financial turmoil ensued? Lax, if not fraudulent, underwriting practices in subprime mortgage lending largely explain the rise in the rate of seriously delinquent loans from 6 percent to 9 percent between the second quarter of 2006 and the second quarter of 2007. But the impact on financial markets and economies far exceeds any expected losses from mortgage foreclosures.

The answer lies in the evolution of the structure of the home mortgage market. Over the past 70 years, it has changed radically from one in which local depository institutions make loans to one that is centered in the major Wall Street banks and securities firms, which employ the latest in financial engineering to repackage mortgages into securities through credit derivatives and collateralized debt obligations. Today’s mortgage market depends critically on the ability to carve the debt into various risk segments through complex financial instruments and then sell those segments separately—the riskiest segments to high-yield-seeking, and sometimes highly leveraged, buyers such as hedge funds.

To understand how the mortgage market has changed—and to identify where the market broke down, show its structural weaknesses, and explain why the rupture reached across borders to other developed and emerging economies—requires an architectural tour of the U.S. mortgage market.
(snip)

Next Page »