Wed 26 Dec 2007
Shiller: “single-family housing market remains grim”
Categories: Housing Bubble , National Real EstateFrom Standard and Poor’s:
Data through October 2007, released today by Standard & Poor’s for its S&P/Case-Shiller® Home Price Indices, the leading measure of U.S. home prices, show broadbased declines in the prices of existing single family homes across the United States, marking the 10th consecutive month of negative annual returns and the 23rd consecutive month of decelerating returns.
The chart above depicts the annual returns of the 10-City Composite and the 20-City Composite Indices. The 10-City Composite’s annual decline of 6.7% is a record low. The previous largest decline on record was 6.3% recorded in April 1991. In October, the 20-City Composite recorded an annual decline of 6.1%.
“No matter how you look at these data, it is obvious that the current state of the single-family housing market remains grim,” says Robert J. Shiller, Chief Economist at MacroMarkets LLC. “Not only did the 10-City Composite post a record low in its annual growth rate, but 11 of the 20 metro areas did the same. If you look at the monthly figures, every MSA went down in both October and September. Eleven of the 20 MSAs, in addition to the two composites, recorded their single largest monthly decline on record in October. For both the 10-City and 20-City composites this was a decline of 1.4% over September”
October data is available from S&P:
http://www2.standardandpoors.com/spf/pdf/index/CSHomePrice_History_122622.xls
NY Metro Area (commutable area)
June 2006 - Peak
Index: 215.83
October 2007 - Current
Index: 205.48
Peak to current decline is 4.8%, year over year decline is 4% (Nominal)
From Bloomberg:
U.S. Home Prices Fell 6.1% in October, Index Shows
Home prices in 20 U.S. metropolitan areas fell in October by the most in at least six years, a private survey showed today.
Property values fell 6.1 percent from October 2006, more than forecast, after dropping 4.9 percent in September, according to the S&P/Case-Shiller home-price index. The decrease was the biggest since the group started keeping year-over-year records in 2001. The index has fallen every month this year.
Prices will probably remain under pressure as the jump in foreclosures puts even more homes on the market just as stricter lending rules make it harder for buyers to find financing. Declining values make it harder for owners to tap home equity for extra cash, posing a risk to consumer spending.
“Prices need to fall to clear excess inventories,” Michelle Meyer, an economist at Lehman Brothers Holdings Inc., said before the report. “There’s a huge overhang of homes for sale on the market.”
Compared with a month earlier, home prices dropped 1.4 percent, the biggest one-month decline since records began. The figures aren’t seasonally adjusted, so economists prefer to focus on the year-over-year change.
The median forecast of 12 economists surveyed by Bloomberg News projected a 5.7 percent decline.
From MarketWatch:
Home prices drop 6.1% in past year, Case-Shiller says
Home prices in 20 major U.S. cities were down 6.1% on average in the past year as of October, according to the Case-Shiller price index released Wednesday by Standard & Poor’s. Since October 2006, prices in 10 cities fell 6.7% — a record drop. The prior largest decline was 6.3%, reached in April 1991. “No matter how you look at these data, it is obvious that the current state of the single-family housing market remains grim,” said Robert Shiller, chief economist at MacroMarkets LLC and co-developer of the index.
I cannot think of anything more appropriate….to use a grim phrase..”hat tip to bi”….
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=4rpY1xBphKY&feature=related
doh!
http://www.bloomberg.com/apps/news?pid=20601103&sid=a7×1XS9pKJB4&refer=us
Tiered price indicies are out as well:
http://www2.standardandpoors.com/spf/pdf/index/cs_tieredprices_122622.xls
From Reuters:
US home prices post biggest annual drop in Oct-S&P
Prices of existing U.S. single-family homes recorded their biggest annual drop in October, suggesting the housing slump is far from over, a national home price gauge released on Wednesday showed.
The Standard & Poor’s/Case-Shiller year-over-year index of 10 metropolitan areas fell to 209.68 in October, down 6.7 percent from a year earlier. The decline surpassed the 6.3 percent drop in April 1991.
…
The firms’ newer, composite home price index on 20 metropolitan areas declined to 192.89 in October, down 6.1 percent from a year ago.
On a month-over-month basis, both indexes lost 1.4 percent in October compared with September.
Eleven of the 20 metropolitan areas recorded their largest monthly decline on record in October, led by San Diego, where home prices fell 2.6 percent, according to S&P/Case-Shiller.
Home prices post record drop
S&P/Case-Shiller index of 10 major cities fell 6.7% in October. Housing markets remain ‘grim.’
Is this the same “grim” that is on this site?
A Christmas gift of dominoes for RE101 and Pretard:
“This is the commercial real estate domino effect. If one key player backs out of a commercial real estate development, then they all do: “Lowe’s backed off, and then Kohl’s said it wouldn’t come without Lowe’s, and the whole house of cards collapsed.”
http://www.minyanville.com/articles/WMT-TGT-HD-LOW-kss/index/a/15332
Are these adjusted for inflation?
No, these are nominal.
Hehehe,
Retailers always launch growth plans that prove too ambitious. Same thing happened in late 1990s. That was followed by massive store closings in 2001 and 2002.
Same thing is happening now. Nobody is surprised by these stories, except gullible municipal officials who were counting on the new source of taxes.
Retail real estate oversupply problem is worst in Midwest, Southeast, and Texas. Projects in high density, high income markets can still attract retailers.
In 5-10 years, Quakerbridge Mall in Mercer County will be like The Westchester and Roosevelt Field. Nordstrom and Neiman Marcus have already signed on to the redevelopment there, and these luxury retailers won’t reverse there decision because they’re desperate to find more locations in high income, high density markets.
However, expect a few Ashley and Raymour & Flanigan furniture stores around here to go dark during the next few years.
http://money.cnn.com/galleries/2007/fortune/0712/gallery.101_dumbest.fortune/99.html
What if inflation-adjusted real estate prices were graphed as a roller coaster (1890-present)?
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=kUldGc06S3U
Can someone please recommend suitable attorny for helping with buying pre-forclosure property. I am having discussions with seller and just wanted the right attorny for helping with this.
From today’s WSJ:
Credit Downturn Hits the Malls
Centro Properties’ Woes
Underscore the State
Of Commercial Market
By KEMBA J. DUNHAM and JENNIFER S. FORSYTH
December 26, 2007; Page C1
The credit crunch triggered by the downturn in the housing market is creating problems in commercial real estate, driving down prices of office buildings, shopping malls and apartment complexes, and leaving some owners scrambling for cash.
[CMBS]
One victim is Centro Properties Group, the fifth-largest owner of shopping centers in the U.S. The Australian real-estate company saw its share price fall by 90% in two days last week as it struggled to refinance short-term debt it took on to fund its $6.2 billion acquisition of New Plan Excel, one of the biggest owners of strip malls in the U.S.
Centro had planned to pay off the short-term loans by selling long-term debt via the commercial mortgage-backed securities market, but the lack of buyers forced it to get a two-month extension from its creditors. Commercial mortgage-backed securities, or CMBS, are pools of loans that are sliced up and sold to investors as bonds.
Residential mortgages are packaged and resold much the same way, but so far the CMBS market hasn’t had any significant problem with defaults.
In another high-profile case, the clock is ticking for Harry Macklowe, the New York developer, who is struggling to raise financing by February to replace $7.1 billion in short-term money he borrowed to finance his heavily leveraged acquisition of seven Manhattan office buildings this year.
The predicament facing Centro, Mr. Macklowe and numerous others underscores the state of the once-unflappable commercial real-estate market. For the past few months, the sector has been in a state of near-paralysis, as financing has nearly dried up. The number of major properties sold is down by half, and many worry that the market will continue to deteriorate as property sales remain slow, prices continue to drop and deals keep falling apart.
Where the Fog Is
“Where we’re really in a fog is on the capital markets side,” said Michael Giliberto, a managing director of J.P. Morgan Chase & Co., on a conference call last week about the state of the commercial real-estate market.
[Harry Macklowe]
The CMBS market was the engine that drove the commercial real-estate boom. Over the past few years, the issuance of CMBS allowed banks to get rid of the risk on their books, lend with cheaper rates and looser terms and that made it easy for private-equity firms to do huge real-estate deals.
Between 2002 and 2007, CMBS issuance rose to an estimated $225 billion from $52 billion, according to Commercial Mortgage Alert, a trade publication that compiles its own statistics.
Real-estate investors aren’t the only ones feeling the pain. Many big banks issued short-term loans to buyers and planned to sell them off later, much the way they do with loans made to private-equity buyout shops. But the banks have gotten stuck with an estimated $65 billion in fixed- and floating-rate loans on their books, according to J.P. Morgan. Some of the largest issuers have been Lehman Brothers Holdings Inc., Credit Suisse Group and Wachovia Corp.
Lehman has said that about half of the $79 billion in mortgage debt it was holding at year-end is CMBS-related. Wachovia and Credit Suisse declined to comment.
http://online.wsj.com/article/SB119862576458749597.html?mod=dist_smartbrief
“pretorius Says:
December 26th, 2007 at 10:24 am
Hehehe,
Retailers always launch growth plans that prove too ambitious.”
Does anyone remember W.T. Grant, Sterns, Alexanders,or Woolworth? Growth led to death.
http://www.businessweek.com/the_thread/hotproperty/archives/2007/12/getting_an_f_in.html
grim, no. 19 is in moderation
Gurus,
Can you please advise if it is worth jumping.
This house is under forclosure, the guy listed for sale is not the owner. He has a contract on it for $490k and asking for 520K for selling the contract. Can there be any other legal issues. Lien is clean(just one lender).
Can you please give reference if some good attorney.
for #22 I meant pre-forclosure to be auctioned sometimes in Jan
Grim/Clot/Chifi/BC, someone please help.
SM,
$30k for the privilege of a contract assignment?
Sorry, but with no other details I can’t see how that is a good deal for anyone but the middleman. I haven’t heard of that game being played on an existing home in many years.
As for legal references, if anyone would like to provide one, please do it through me in email, otherwise refrain from posting referrals in public.
Why don’t you just approach the owner directly? I’d wager a bet that the “buyer” has no intention of closing if he can’t sell the home.
“Does anyone remember W.T. Grant, Sterns, Alexanders,or Woolworth? Growth led to death.”
I would think everyone remembers Woolworth’s no? Grant’s, same. My mother used to take me to Alexanders to get get my winter jacket every year when I was a kid.
Alexanders?
I miss the Stefan Knapp mural..
Grim,
The 30k is the asking price and negotiable. Issue is owner has already moved out of the house and not reachable. This middleman arraned for me to see the house.
Is there any way to get owner details.
Again for any reference for attornys please email me at satishmiranda@yahoo.com
Thanks in advance for all your help
Sterns, too. I remember the one on Route 4 in Paramus had a little restaurant on the 2nd floor. As a kid, I used to love going there.
Alexanders never went out of business!! It is one on the highest priced stocks on the NYSE. Alexanders has a huge REO of properties that are subletted out. The old Alexanders in Roosvelt field was just rented out to Macy’s.
My now dead uncle visited my father from Europe back in the early 1960’s when he got off the train at 59th and Lex he was amazed by the huge Alexander’s department store. There was nothing like it in Europe at the time, he went home and immediately went to work and opened the First Mega department store in Ireland and died a multi multi milionaire almost 45 years later.
FYI Sterns took over Gertz back in the day for us old timers. You forgot Korvettes, A&S,Wiz, Crazy Eddies, Mays, Two Guys, Caldors etc.
Lawrence Yun, chief economist for the National Association of Realtors and among the most optimistic of industry insiders, conceded that large inventories will mean further price declines. “Price growth during the boom was clearly unsustainable. This is the payback,” he said.
clearly unsustainable
‘Clearly’, as in “without doubt or question”?
If it was so clear, why didn’t the NAR, Lereah, or Yun say something?
njpatient Says:
December 26th, 2007 at 11:29 am
I would think everyone remembers Woolworth’s no? Grant’s, same. My mother used to take me to Alexanders to get get my winter jacket every year when I was a kid.
nj: my mom was the manager of the cosmetics department at the Alexanders on 59th for a time….it is now the Bloomberg LP headquarters buidling.
John said:
“It is one on the highest priced stocks on the NYSE.”
That is what happens when you control great real estate.
There’s a growing number of distressed owners of great real estate out there.
John Says:
December 26th, 2007 at 11:43 am
FYI Sterns took over Gertz back in the day for us old timers. You forgot Korvettes, A&S,Wiz, Crazy Eddies, Mays, Two Guys, Caldors etc.
JJ: I still remember being at a party when I was ten years old. My mom mentioned that she worked at Korvette’s (the one that used to be at Kissena and Sanford in Flushing). One of the other mom said “E.J. Korvette?…did you know E.J. stands for eight Jews?” I look at her stunned for a second, and said out loud “what a bitch”….my mom dragged me out of the party, onto the street, and slapped me in the face.
I was pissed at my mom and said “…but I was right.”…she said it didn’t matter, that you just don’t do that type of thing to someone else in public…..to this day, I still think I did the right thing.
FYI - my mom is Jewish
John,
If you remember Two Guys From Harrison, you’re really dating yourself there, dude :)
PS - Obviously, I remember that store, too. :)
Sure the big box retailers will cut their capital budgets, but don’t think for a minute they will start closing down stores in large swaths. They have worked hard to put everyone else out of business and in majority of places across the old USA the big box retailers are the only game in town.
According to Korvette’s founder, Eugene Ferkauf, the name E.J. Korvette was coined as a combination of the initials of its founders (Eugene and Joe) and a re-spelling of the naval term, “Corvette.” [3]. This claim, and the fact that the name pre-dates the Korean War by three years, directly contradict an urban legend that the name stood for Eight (or Eleven) Jewish Korean War Veterans.
BTW, my grandfather was the current day equivalent of their CFO.
What about Bradlees?
In the late 60’s, my Dad usually had our one car at Elizabeth or some other nasty railroad yard.
In the Winter, we’d walk several miles to go sit at the counter in Woolworth’s for 5 cent cups of chicken soup and toast. I thought my Mother was wonderfully extravagant and would tell all the kids at school. This usually ended in a playground fight.
Some things, no matter how young you are, you remember, especially defending Mom.
http://biz.yahoo.com/cnbc/071226/22398678.html?.v=1
Helping friends or opportunistic?
Waxing Nostalgic,”Gimble’s” next to “Macy’s” in Manhattan was a classic store. For upscale, a store which is also gone was “Bonwit Teller”. When Gimbel’s & Macy’s were Miracle’s on 34th Street, Downtown Brooklyn had A&S, EJ Korvettes, Martins, and Mays as the big box stores. Five & Dimes included Woolworths, Kresge’s, Nichol’s, etc. Back then most stores were independent, not part of conglomerates like Federated.
Two Guys Dept. store…. one on route 440 in Jersey City and the other on Kennedy Blvd. in North Bergen. Went to both all the time back in the day.
John Says:
“My now dead uncle visited my father from Europe back in the early 1960’s when he got off the train at 59th and Lex he was amazed by the huge Alexander’s department store. There was nothing like it in Europe at the time, he went home and immediately went to work and opened the First Mega department store in Ireland and died a multi multi milionaire almost 45 years later.”
Do you just make all this stuff up out of boredom? Europe has had grand department stores since the 1800’s in many of the major cities. Even the UK - ever heard of Harrods, Selfridges, Jenners in Edinburgh (est. 1830’s)?
Hell, even a quick look at Ireland in Wiki shows their biggest and grandest department store was founded in the 1850’s.
SM (22)-
Tread lightly. Nothing is inherently wrong with an assignation of contract, but you should proceed with caution.
I’d give an attorney recommendation, but I don’t know any attorneys who have extensive experience in pre-foreclosures and/or assignations. It’s not something NJ has ever seen in volume before.
ChiFi-
Your mom should’ve slapped the taste outa that bitch’s mouth.
Property-Tax Frustration Builds
by Amy Merrick
Wednesday, December 26, 2007
provided by
States, Cities Revise Strategy as Homeowners Protest Rising Levies
Falling home values and rising property taxes in many parts of the country are generating the loudest complaints about property levies since the 1970s, forcing state and local officials to address the outcry even as the housing-market slump eats into many sources of their revenue.
Indiana residents held public protests this summer against a surge in property taxes and acted on their frustration by ousting the mayor of Indianapolis. Florida voters will decide next month whether to adopt massive property-tax cuts, in a debate that has pitted part-time residents against full-time Floridians.
In California, thousands of homeowners are having their assessments reduced under a decades-old state law, and lower tax revenue due to the weaker housing market is likely to force an emergency budget session.
More from The Wall Street Journal Online:
• The Clinton Housing Bubble
• Falling Starts on New Homes May Open Door
• Mortgage-Relief Plan Divides Neighbors
Falling real-estate prices and turmoil in the mortgage market are expected to reduce property values for U.S. homeowners by a total of $1.2 trillion next year, according to Global Insight Inc., a research-and-consulting firm in Lexington, Mass.
Unless tax rates are changed, California could lose $2.96 billion in property taxes over several years because of the housing bust, the firm predicted. New York could lose $686 million; Florida, $589 million.
Nationwide, falling real-estate prices mean local property-tax growth probably will slow significantly, and taxes could even fall in many places, Global Insight said in a report released last month by the U.S. Conference of Mayors.
In some markets where real-estate values had been rising sharply for years, property taxes are still climbing. That is because it can take a long time for assessments, which commonly are based on a property’s estimated market value, to catch up with the realities of the real-estate market.
The lag time has led to an outcry to cut property taxes reminiscent of the 1970s, says Gerald Prante, an economist with the Tax Foundation, a nonprofit, nonpartisan research group in Washington.
“In many cases, incomes were growing faster than property-tax bills in the 1990s,” Mr. Prante says. “Recently, property-tax bills have grown faster than incomes, on average.”
State and local property-tax collections increased 50% from 2000-06, according to Census Bureau data. During the same time period, the median household income rose 15%, before adjustment for inflation.
In Indiana, a spike in real-estate tax bills for Marion County, which includes the state capital of Indianapolis, caused a backlash this summer. In some neighborhoods, property-tax bills as much as doubled. Residents staged a rally at which they dunked a giant tea bag in a canal — a reference to the Boston Tea Party — and a July 4 protest outside the governor’s mansion.
“I was holding a microphone and saying, ‘I’m right there with you,’ ” said Michael Rodman, Marion County treasurer, who joined protesters after seeing his property-tax bill jump 80%.
Property taxes in the county were increased by new assessments, the elimination of a business-inventory tax that shifted more of the tax burden to homeowners, and greater spending by local government and schools.
Indiana Gov. Mitch Daniels stepped in, freezing tax bills for Marion and several other counties at 2006 levels pending a new round of assessments.
In October, the governor released a plan that would cap homeowners’ property taxes at 1% of assessed value, shift the full cost of school and child-welfare operations to the state, and require voter approval of major building projects. But voters could face a rise in the state sales tax to 7% from 6% under the plan, which the state legislature has discussed in committee hearings this month.
Despite efforts to address voter outrage, Indianapolis Mayor Bart Peterson, considered a shoo-in before the revolt, was defeated in a Nov. 6 election by Greg Ballard, a little-known Republican challenger whose campaign, as of mid-April, had reported less than $10,000 in cash on hand.
In Florida, where the falling housing market has gouged the state’s economy, residents are debating massive property-tax cuts that will be voted on Jan. 29. Implementing the proposed changes would require amending the state’s constitution. The plan, which strongly favors longtime homeowners over new buyers and part-time residents, has sparked opposition.
In Washington state last month, legislators held a special session to reinstate a cap on property taxes that would limit the growth in property-tax revenue from the existing tax base to 1% annually. Earlier in November, the state Supreme Court threw out a 2001 referendum on the cap, saying voters weren’t adequately informed about what they were choosing.
Across the U.S., concerns about property taxes have reached levels not seen since the passage of California’s Proposition 13 in 1978. That landmark law capped property taxes at 1% of assessed value and said the base assessment on a home couldn’t increase more than 2% a year until it is sold. A companion initiative, Proposition 8, allows homeowners to get assessments temporarily reduced during a weak housing market, until home prices recover.
This year, thousands of California homeowners — primarily those who bought their homes in the past few years, at the market’s peak — are getting a tax break because of Proposition 8. Assessors in counties such as Ventura and Contra Costa decided to review thousands of properties sold since 2005 and reduced many of the tax bills mailed this fall.
California has been hit so hard by housing-related problems that Gov. Arnold Schwarzenegger said Friday that he plans to declare a state of “fiscal emergency,” in order to address a projected $10 billion to $14 billion budget shortfall during the next 18 months. Slower-than-expected growth in property-tax revenue is partly to blame for the expected gap.
In several states, there has been a push against sharp property-tax reductions. The most extreme plan was floated in Georgia, where House Speaker Glenn Richardson last month proposed eliminating all property taxes. But after touring the state to get feedback from residents, he has scaled back his plans and hopes to eliminate property taxes over time, starting with a few measures that he presented to the state House last week. He would offset the lost revenue by eliminating sales-tax exemptions on lottery tickets and groceries, and by adding taxes to consumer services.
In New Jersey this fall, residents received the largest property-tax rebate checks in state history, with 1.8 million homeowners getting an average $1,000 refund. But on Nov. 6, voters turned down an amendment that would dedicate a portion of last year’s sales-tax increase to reducing property taxes further. Initially, the proposed measure was expected to pass easily, but critics called it a gimmick, at a time when New Jersey is facing a $3 billion budget deficit.
I went to 2 guys all the time, the original in Kearny/harrison. Had friends who worked there, work now with a woman who met her husband when they both worked there,I can still picture the escalators clearly shown thru the all glass windows. The one in Kearny was replaced with TSS it could’nt hold a candle to Two guys we nicknamed it The Stupid Store”
My first job was at Mc Crory’s on Broad street in Newark. You know my age now….by the fact that my parents let me work there and take the bus there and back shows just how old I am.
KL
What about Bambergers, Steinbachs, and Hahnes?
Great Eastern, Valley Fair?
or electronics stores like Druckers, Brick Church, or Newmark & Lewis?
Actually, the store is still there. My uncle checked the patent/trademark laws and discovered that Alexanders was not trademark protected in Northern Ireland. He actually named it Alexanders. He opened the department store in Belfast. To cut out the middlemen when land was dirt cheap in the 1960s/1970s he bought the factory next door and made a lot of his own clothes on the six floors he had catholics on one floor and protesants on the next floor and he always kept a 50/50 mix and in doing so managed not to get bombed by either the UVF or IRA. That factory to this day makes most of the traditional white Irish sweaters. In addition it makes, PLO, UVF, IRA, JDL etc. uniforms. His one claim to fame was in the 1970s he made a dress shirt without a collar to save a few bucks on fabric and for a brief period the grandfather shirt as it was called was a fashion hit. Of course he always knocked off everyone so he kinda felt good at least one time he was knocked off.
From the Woodbridge Sentinel:
Front Page December 12, 2007
Woodbridge seeking input on master plan
First of many public hearings took place on Dec. 6
BY KATHY CHANG Staff Writer
Fred Heyer and Susan S. Gruel, principals in the New Brunswick planning firm Heyer, Gruel & Associates, want to know what the residents of Woodbridge Township like and dislike about the place they call home.
“If people are not pleased [with the way their community is being built], the master plan can shift to where the people want their community to go,” said Heyer.
The planners said historic land use patterns prevent them from starting with a clean slate, but they said it does not prevent the communities from beginning to shift in the right direction.
Approximately 30 residents came to the Dec. 6 meeting held at John F. Kennedy Memorial High School, the first of many public meetings to discuss what they would like to see added to the township’s master plan, which was last reexamined in 2003. Council President Brenda Velasco, Ward 4 Councilman James Major, Ward 1 Councilman Charles Kenny, Councilwoman Patricia Osborne, and Marta Lefsky, director of planning and development, were on hand to listen to the residents’ concerns.
Under the New Jersey Municipal Land Use Law, the state requires municipalities to review their master plan and development regulations every six years.
“We hope to have a first draft of the master plan by the spring,” said Gruel.
Residents brought up a variety of issues, including restoring historic buildings, preserving open space, seeing more neighborhood restaurants, redeveloping areas such as a section of Route 1 in Avenel, providing setbacks to streams and brooks, and preventing so-called McMansions on small lots.
[snip]
The planners asked residents if there were specific areas where residences or buildings were being built that they felt did not fit in the area.
Residents said it was hard to name a specific area, but named residences that went up on New Dover Road in Colonia, Oak Tree Road in Iselin, Star Street in Iselin, and areas in Woodbridge proper, and Menlo Park Terrace.
http://ws.gmnews.com/news/2007/1212/front_page/002.html
By “New Dover Road,” I’d be pretty sure they’re talking about a huge house that was still under construction, the last I saw, a year ago. It’s made of orange stucco - huge and gaudy. The garage has a flat roof, and there’s a gazebo on top.
“You’ll find Alexander’s has what you’re looking for; how lucky can you get?!”, Alexander’s advertising jingle.
KL,
I and my mother used to take the bus into Newark every year before the school year started to shop for clothes.
That ended with the riots.
The drumbeat of negativity continues after a brief hiatus. When will you guys stop?
Hehehe, I’ve asked you several times to cease with linking the Looney Tunes cartoon site here. You can’t expect the comments by Daffy Duck, Goofy, Mickey and etc. to be taken seriously. These matters are serious and the undermining that’s affecting the real estate markets is similarly so.
The amount of hysteria out here is ridiculous. Imagine if the press would just stop printing negative news for a few weeks. What do you think would happen? Let me answer that; the hysteria in the markets would disappear and things would get back to normal. This constant drumbeat of the sky falling is the biggest problem facing the real estate markets as it’s creating a lot of unsupported hysteria. A moratorium on negative news would cause the fuel to be removed from all the negative thoughts being expressed on this blog which would eliminate another self reinforcing mechanism undermining the real estate markets.
The first thing that Bush did after 9-11 was stop allowing the media to give voice to al quaida. Perhaps we need to consider placing the same muzzle on real estate terrorists.
HEHEHE Says:
December 26th, 2007 at 10:07 am
A Christmas gift of dominoes for RE101 and Pretard:
Two Guys, that brings back memories. Wasn’t there one in Lodi too? Also, Valley Fair! Where was that, I think, Little Ferry.
Who could forget Alexanders with the big mural right at 4 and 17? That mural was so cool. Now there is the big ugly IKEA that looks like a hangar.
Stern’s was another one. With the restaurant on top, with the “view.”
Good times, good times.
That ended with the riots.
And so began the “mall” era in Northern NJ.
Perhaps the internet should be replaced by FOXnet?
Sounds good to me. What do you propose next? Limiting the number of children Americans are allowed to have?
For someone who claims to be a shining example of patriotism, you are coming across more and more like a fascist.
… Oak Tree Road in Iselin was a sleepy little street and today it’s vibrant with tons of people
scribe #51,
I noticed no mention of the jitney service on Oak Tree Road that has been discussed by the mayor of Woodbridge a few times. There is a dangerous mix of automobile and pedestrian traffic in the Indian section of Oak Tree, exacerbated by rough drivers and careless pedestrians.
I go there a lot for ethnic shopping and I’d like to see jaywalkers and aggressive drivers ticketed. That would go a very long way in alleviating what ails Oak Tree. Of course, you’ll have the wannabe-politicians in the Indian community yell racism, but it would be so worth it.
grim, #57
In Central NJ, too.
The Woodbridge Mall opened in the early 1970’s - built on the site of the old clay pits.
The Menlo Park Mall was built before the riots - opened sometime in the early to mid-1960’s. The original mall wasn’t much, but after the riots, it became the main site for department store shopping.
reinvestor #55,
Your terrorist is someone else’s freedom fighter ;)
sync,
I think the traffic problems are part of a different plan, specific to Oak Tree Road.
Also from the Woodbridge Sentinel, on July 3rd:
The 10-point plan also included ideas of a shuttle bus, additional police presence, and a streetscape and design layout for Oak Tree Road.
The township is currently doing a survey to see if a shuttle bus is feasible for the area.
“This is a high-density shopping area where people come out of the stores with 40-pound bags of food,” said McCormac. “We want to see if the bus could be successful.”
McCormac said another idea is increased police presence.
Currently there are two officers, paid through a grant, who make sure traffic runs smoothly from noon to 5 p.m. Saturday and Sunday.
“In 2006, police made five arrests, gave 1,094 warnings, gave 4,523 parking summonses and 972 other summonses,” said McCormac.
McCormac presented a streetscape and design layout for Oak Tree Road, which showed a drop-off and pick-up area on the road where residents or the proposed shuttle buses would not block traffic, which would help traffic move freely.
http://ws.gmnews.com/news/2007/0703/Front_Page/002.html
“This is a high-density shopping area where people come out of the stores with 40-pound bags of food,” said McCormac.
He must have seen me!
Currently there are two officers, paid through a grant, who make sure traffic runs smoothly from noon to 5 p.m. Saturday and Sunday.
I have never seen these officers and I always go on weekend afternoons. I’ve always wondered at the lack of police presence in an area that desperately needs it.
sync,
I don’t think any of that has happened yet.
The meetings on redevelopment that just got started will address - in part - the issue of building huge houses on small lots.
I know the house they’re talking about on Star Street. Not a bad-looking house, but much larger than anything else in the area.
John Says:
December 26th, 2007 at 1:56 pm
“You’ll find Alexander’s has what you’re looking for; how lucky can you get?!”, Alexander’s advertising jingle.
JJ: “….I’m sauntering through Sachs; meandering through Macy’s; but I buy at Alexander’s…I buy at Alexander’s!!!
#50 John
My BS meter is going off the scale. Please post a link (Google Wiki etc) to this mythical store.
sync,
Email McCormac :)
Come to think of it, I’ve never seen them, either. But Oak Tree Road is a long stretch, too.
My brother’s observation is that one of the problems is traffic from Metropark. Lots of people when a rush hour train comes in.
Pat…the handle is snide commentary directed at pret-a-poseur……LOVE the sigma though! That’s some serious VOL
scribe Says:
December 26th, 2007 at 1:57 pm
KL, I and my mother used to take the bus into Newark every year before the school year started to shop for clothes. That ended with the riots.
s: my mother-in-law grew up inside the border of Newark just one block from Seton Hall. She was always nostalgic when she visited us Hoboken, because when she was a teenager she used to sneak with her friend onto the bus to Hoboken to buy fresh bread.
scribe #67,
Metro Park is part of it. Even if MP didn’t exist though, Oak Tree would be a mess. There’s just a lot of Indian shopping and eating one can do there that simply can’t be done anywhere else in the region (except for Jackson Heights) and that is a huge draw. I made the mistake of going there on a Saturday afternoon before Diwali (an Indian holiday), OMFG the place was crowded beyond belief… and not one cop in sight.
Re Oak Tree Rd in Edison:
People drive like crazy there coz they think they are back in India - absolutely no courtesy for pedestrians, and scant respect for the law. The above applies to NYC cabbies too. These guys need to be ticketed for ‘poor etiquette’. Also, pass on a free sample of Old Spice too. Where are the cops when one needs them?
That’s why I’ve been to Oak Tree precisely once in the past 2 years.
dream #71,
I hear you. I wish I didn’t have to go but the spousal unit has demands that must be met.
Oh, and let’s not blame only the drivers. Desis walk like they own the place too.
I dream of the day we have an upscale version of Oak Tree in a nicer town. Keep out the FOBs LOL.
reinvestor101 - unsupported hysteria?
What makes you such an authority on the real estate market that you have the gall to take licence and dismiss any and all factual information about the current state of affairs as unsupported hysteria?
You might as well cick your heels three times already, since the majority of recalcitrant wooden headed donkeys like yourself always take the hardest hit and will be the ones taking their medicine without the vaseline.
sync,
What’s an FOB?
Back to RE matters.
What are peoples thoughs on interest rates? The Fed has cut rates and Libor has dropped. Where will the 30yr Fixed go in the next 3mo 1Yr and 5Yr?
ALEXANDERS (CLOTHING MANUFACTURING) LIMITED Registered No. NI014403 27 CASTLEREAGH ROAD, BELFAST, BT5 5FB …
No Website, uncle wouldn’t know a computer if it hit him on the head.
scribe #74, derogatory term for new immigrant - fresh off the boat.
My apologies for using it :)
another (now defunct) dept store chain:
B Altman
sync,
bad boy :)
What about Korvett’s on route 17 in Rochelle Park? And on the way back from Paramus, we stopped at Fat Mike’s on 17 south for a hot dog.
And in Hudson County, Bergenline Avenue was a beautiful place to shop… ahh the memories.
Well since Reinvestor seems to think people listen to the media and this blog and cannot think for themselves about the housing market..
Than…
The housing market will go back down to 1997 prices and there nothing we can do about it.
All the signs are there, economists agree that prices will continue to fall and fall. So do not buy now. Wait until the prices fall to 1997 level before you buy.
If you buy now you will only lose money as the values of homes keeps dropping and dropping.
Lets all stop the reinvestor madness and wait to buy a home. Wait until the greedy sellers stop dreaming up prices that no one will pay. Average home prices will be between 100-160k in the next few years so wait and don’t buy. If we all stick together and do not buy homes as we have been these greedy grubbers will lower there prices.
And on a final note…do not I repeat do not by reinvestors home…Its a horrible investment.
Homer #81,
Time to DoS this blog before the peasants read your post. 1997? Can’t have that.
http://www.bloomberg.com/apps/news?pid=20601039&sid=avYbXq3sIzUA&refer=home
FOB is now SOB - Smelly Off the Boat
Duck, are you out there under another name?
Post as Duck and tell us if you’re planning to relist in Feb. Come on, don’t be proud.
Can I have 1997 gas, restaurant and bar prices to go with my housing prices?
#76 John.
The store is in East befast not downtown. as I’m from the otherside of the city I have never heard of it. While big department store is a misnomer, I’ll give them credit for staying in business this long. Most other manufacuturers have packed up and the large scale industry is on life support.
“it makes, PLO, UVF, IRA, JDL etc. uniforms” I didn’t think guerrilla armies went much for uniforms. Makes the clandestine side of the business slighly more difficult and it makes it hard to keep a low proifle.
Grandfather shirts came from the fact that in the old days shirts had detachable collars and cuffs. They were the parts of the shirt that wore out more quickly and could be replaced cheaply. With cheaper manuafacturing costs in the 60s they went out of style and only the older generations would wear them. If it was not a formal occasion the cuffs and collar would be left off. So the fashion style was wearing the shirts your grandfather wore.
javascript:bringupPlayer(’vid=v0Xo9JImvAZA’)
Seen on TV day before Christmas:
Interviewing shoppers going into debt to buy presents, parents saying they need to buy the stuff their kids want, people saying they spent more than planned because they feel obligated to buy gifts.
Seen on TV day after Christmas:
Floods of people rushing the stores to take back the piles of cr@p people felt obligated to buy them.
It’s a sick, sick cycle. Glad I passed on adopting the season. Saving myself a fortune.
stuw (58)-
Unfortunately, there are a lot of idiots out there who now think fascism IS free-market capitalism.
How else does Kudlow get a TV show?
“How else does Kudlow get a TV show?”
by sharing his blow?
Hey when I was little I went to an orange man parade and boy their were there a lot of uniforms and flaming cocktails and bonfires galore. Those guys have non public meetings kinda like the masons where they all dress up. The kookiest one my uncle ever went to was a UVF spsonsored how to kill a catholic seminar hosted by a guest speaker from the PLO. Even kookier was when the IRA or UVF ran short of bullets/guns they used to buy from one another.
I remember going to Belfast and my uncle took me out by the wall where the UVF shot catholics and it had a lot of spraypainted anti catholic stuff and some nice bullet holes. Full body searches to go shopping, guns everywhere and the occasionally car bomb going off was all a normal day shopping in Belfast in the early 70s.
Now those days are long gone, thank God.
PGC Says:
December 26th, 2007 at 3:37 pm
Clotpoll,
Thanks a lot. Can you please send your recommendations for attorneys to me at satishmiranda@yahoo.com
Grim,
Apologies for directly posting my email here.
lisoosh,
Pat was here the other day accusing me of trying to hit on you. She saw through me like glass. You intrigue me. I don’t know what it was, maybe it had something to do with your knowledge of grenade launchers. Maybe it was the thing with the self defense class you were talking about. Maybe it’s the fact that you’re feisty. ohhh…you excite me!
The only possible thing that might be a problem between us is your disdain for real estate. Perhaps we can work on that?
lisoosh Says:
December 26th, 2007 at 3:46 pm
Seen on TV day before Christmas:
Interviewing shoppers going into debt to buy presents
Dear Homer:
Please note that I’d rather run through hell in gasoline underwear than to ever sell you my home. You don’t deserve my house.
Please note for future reference.
Sincerely,
R.E. Investor 101
Homer Says:
December 26th, 2007 at 3:22 pm
…And on a final note…do not I repeat do not by reinvestors home…Its a horrible investment.
#93
Ewww. That is just creepy, in a stalker kind of way.
Get help.
#93 reinvestor: You are of course delusional, and in bitter self denial, but I am now begining to think you are disturbed.
lisoosh (95)-
Feel like taking about 27 showers?
#87 it makes, PLO, UVF, IRA, JDL etc. uniforms”
The “hard men” never wore uniforms.
OT, but since conversation here has often touched upon the Entitled Generation, I thought this might be interesting:
Generation Y: Too demanding at work?
Not too long ago, the generation gap meant parents didn’t understand why ripped jeans cost twice as much as regular ones or why every other word coming out of their child’s mouth was “like.”
Now the gap means employers don’t understand why twentysomethings straight out of college expect a high salary and lots of vacation time.
Eighty-seven percent of hiring managers and HR professionals say Gen Y exhibits a sense of entitlement that older generations don’t.
More at: http://www.cnn.com/2007/LIVING/worklife/12/26/cb.generation/index.html
Clot - more like removing a couple of layers of skin.
Ever see Meryl Streep being decontaminated in “Silkwood”?
Like that.
#9 John jeahhhhh but we do love OUR GRIM :)
hehhehe
Excuuuuzmeeee #77 I am FOP ..:)
#93 Yuuuuuuck. That is just creepy and has no place here or anywhere.
So We’ve gone from Johns uncle was the founder of the first great department store in Europe…..
To Johns uncle owned a sweatshop in Belfast, claimed to invent the grandfather collar and gave away free T-shirts the members of all major militia who came knocking.
Must have kissed the Blarney stone at some time in his life.
On a side note, any anglophile who has ever watched Coronation Street, Johns uncle appears to be the Irish Mike Baldwin.
Clot,
Sorry for being pushy. Can you please send me the references directly or via Grim. Need not be experts in forclosures just someone who you found good in legal matteres considering your extensive experience.
reinvestor101: Time to grow up and learn about what is going on rather than giving your opinions about the housing market and the economy. Here are a couple of websites to start.
http://calculatedrisk.blogspot.com/
http://www.itulip.com/
http://globaleconomicanalysis.blogspot.com/
http://www.minyanville.com/
I am not a “sky is falling” type person. As a mattter of fact, I am a very optimistic person. But the housing and economy mess we are in is not to be taken lightly.
When you start reading, look out for the following topics:
1. Commercial paper backed by mortgages
2. Default rate of Alt-A mortgages
3. Failure of mortgage insurance companies like ACA and MBIA.
Good luck my friend, if this does not open your eyes, nothing will.
Reinvestor - Funny stuff. Question … so let’s say all the ‘negative’ (read: factual) news evaporated. What, you think there would be a rush on people buying houses?
I think you simply don’t understand what happened the last 4-5 years. People who couldn’t afford houses were getting them … with no money down. And they weren’t just buying something nice and small … they were buying large houses out of their price range.
Now, those loans are gone. And thus the only people that can buy are those with a 20% downpayment … and why the hell would those people buy when they know prices are falling and will continue to fall? Why not just wait a year?
anyone know of good architects/builders in Northern NJ?
hoodafa Says:
December 26th, 2007 at 5:09 pm
OT, but since conversation here has often touched upon the Entitled Generation, I thought this might be interesting:
More at: http://www.cnn.com/2007/LIVING/worklife/12/26/cb.generation/index.html
hoodafa: I sort of did not appreciate the tone of the article. It started with what I would consider are the accusations, then it jumped to the “why” the requests are made, but it left the door open to the justification. As a result, it painted a WELL YOU SHOULD kind of portrait to potential employers.
The biggest problem is that the Gen Y’s cannot discern who should get the perks and why they should get them (basically - everyone/no questions asked). The way they sound is “entitled”, which was the original accusation.
I know I haven’t been around much lately but I get scared when I see people’s names turned into equations and lioosh being hit on by someone who should be medicated. I guess I’ve been missing all the fun.
#98
“The “hard men” never wore uniforms.”
There’s a long story about a “pink Pringle”, but that’s for another forum.
#104 lisoosh
To bring it back to RE shall we discuss the Duckworths Stone cladding or Hilda Ogdens Wildfowl wallpaper.
Well, I missed a lot!
I remember Alexander’s in Menlo Park.
I had a shirt that had “alexanders” written all over it about 100 times in different colors and every time I wore it, I would be inundated with the inevitable stupid question “Hey where’d ya’ buy THAT shirt?!?!”
I remember the lunch counter at Woolworth’s in MP. I used to swing my feet waiting for my grilled cheese sandwich.
My nana used to take me to MP on the bus and get her groceries at the PathMark there.
I’m too young to remember MP before it had a roof put on it.
My mom remembers riding horses where MP is. Apparently an “uncle” of some sort owned a farm where MP is now… if I know my family, the guy probably sold it for about $8.00
Anyway, a bagillion years ago, my aunt gave me REALLY old riding breeches from her riding days in Roosevelt Park. They were WOOL (ugh) with those flared sides that were all the rage for some unknown reason…
Speaking of Roosevelt Park, my great-great uncle helped build that park as part his being employed by the WPA…
I used to say “Hamburger’s” instead of Bambergers and my aunt (with the breeches) was a phone operator on Sundays for Bamberger’s…. the old way with a headset and pulling out corded plugs from one hole and putting them in another to connect…
And all this time, I thought 50.5 was waving his flag.
WTF is this?
WSJ
Wall Street Wizardry
Amplified Credit Crisis
A CDO Called Norma
Left ‘Hairball of Risk’;
Tailored by Merrill Lynch
By CARRICK MOLLENKAMP and SERENA NG
December 27, 2007
In recent years, as home prices and mortgage lending boomed, bankers found ever-more-clever ways to repackage trillions of dollars in loans, selling them off in slivers to investors around the world. Financiers and regulators figured all the activity would disperse risk, and maybe even make markets safer and stronger.
Then along came Norma.
Norma CDO I Ltd., as its full name goes, is one of a new breed of mortgage investments created in the waning days of the U.S. housing boom. Instead of spreading the risk of a global home-finance boom, the instruments have magnified and concentrated the effects of the subprime-mortgage bust. They are now behind tens of billions of dollars of write-downs at some of the world’s largest banks, including the $9.4 billion announced last week by Morgan Stanley.
[edit]
I’ve moved my rook back to a defensive position and am again thinking 25.25 is J.B.
Only someone with a terrific sense of humor or a drastic need for traffic would say, “ohhhh…you excite me!”
BC (113)-
Letting his freak flag fly.
ChiFi (114)-
“Norma CDO”?
Is this like the crack cocaine of mortgages?
“Norma CDO”?
I think it was created in the same Cayman office as the PPT.
Confused In NJ Says:
December 26th, 2007 at 12:38 pm
Waxing Nostalgic,”Gimble’s” next to “Macy’s” in Manhattan was a classic store. For upscale, a store which is also gone was “Bonwit Teller”.
I used to like Bonwit. At least we still have Saks and Bergdorf.
Patricia:
You’re breaking our pact. You’re not supposed to be posting when I am posting. Please comply.
I have no earthly idea as to why I am periodically accused of being the blog master. I am a separate person. Besides which, this blog doesn’t require me to cause an increase in traffic. There’s enough of you to post all the gloom and doom you guys want. Come on now, at tbe sight of any bit of news that you guys believe confirms that real estate is in the doldrums, you guys will post 500+ posts to celebrate. Nooo, you guys don’t need me to cause traffic, there’s enough gloom and doom to support that.
Perhaps it’s some sort of myopia here that prevents you from seeing this, but there are those of us who support this country and its real estate markets! It’s your charcoal colored glasses that prevent you from seeing that.
Besides Patricia, you brought up the whole thing about me and lisoosh a couple of days back. I think you’re getting jealous now!
Pat Says:
December 26th, 2007 at 10:06 pm
I’ve moved my rook back to a defensive position and am again thinking 25.25 is J.B.
Only someone with a terrific sense of humor or a drastic need for traffic would say, “ohhhh…you excite me!”
Hey, you’re trying to treat me like Pepe LePhew of Bugs Bunny fame.
Trying to play hard to get huh?
lisoosh Says:
December 26th, 2007 at 4:49 pm
#93
Ewww. That is just creepy, in a stalker kind of way.
Get help.
spam,
*I* worked the “jewelry” counter at that Woolworth’s. It was my first job at the age of 16.
When you drive towards the mall, just as you’re getting there, there’s a side street to the right.
We had our first house there between 1953 and January ‘57.
There was a big horse farm. Our backyard was flat and grassy, like the prairie, and huge. We had a Western-style fence. The horses would break loose and hop the fence to get into our yard. We had an orchard with apple, pear, and peach trees, and they would eat the fruit off the trees.
We also had Native American neighbors from Oklahoma - an elderly couple. The man had a bowler hat with a feather; the woman had a big colorful poncho. They would chase the horses out of our yard with their whips - like a wild west show. They may have been horse wranglers who worked for the horse farm.
What’s there now - the spot where our house stood - a 7-Eleven.
My parents were always sorry that they didn’t hold on to the property. Once the mall was announced, it would have been worth a fortune.
I saw the house before it got knocked down, when it was vacant and vandalized.
By then, I was 13 or 14 - old enough to ride my bike that far.
Seeing our beautiful old house like that was a shock.
I still remember how much it upset me.
But, yeah, that area was really rural prior to the 1960’s.
We had an RFD address.
PGC Says:
December 26th, 2007 at 8:28 pm
#104 lisoosh
“To bring it back to RE shall we discuss the Duckworths Stone cladding or Hilda Ogdens Wildfowl wallpaper.”
Oh wow, my Wednesday evenings wouldn’t have been the same without Hilda, the ducks and her “muriel”.
Good times, thanks for the memories.
Spam/scribe - you’re describing a New Jersey I can’t even imagine, I believe it, but picturing it is something else. Another world altogether.
scribe #122,’
Your writing is so vivid! Thanks, like lisoosh, I have trouble imagining anything in this region that looks like that.
Dam US soldiers in Iraq blowing up dog for fun
http://uaddit.com/discussions/showthread.php?s=71ba5bfe5f83e916b24d175d225fdcdc&t=400