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	<title>Comments on: North Jersey December Residential Sales</title>
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	<description>Real Estate, Economics, and Politics</description>
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		<title>By: 3b</title>
		<link>http://njrereport.com/index.php/2008/01/06/north-jersey-december-residential-sales/#comment-146252</link>
		<dc:creator>3b</dc:creator>
		<pubDate>Tue, 08 Jan 2008 14:12:49 +0000</pubDate>
		<guid isPermaLink="false">http://njrereport.com/index.php/2008/01/06/north-jersey-december-residential-sales/#comment-146252</guid>
		<description>#274 Essex I worked with many, somer were absoulutely brilliant. Many were complete morons,and some were just plain bizzare.</description>
		<content:encoded><![CDATA[<p>#274 Essex I worked with many, somer were absoulutely brilliant. Many were complete morons,and some were just plain bizzare.</p>
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	<item>
		<title>By: Ann</title>
		<link>http://njrereport.com/index.php/2008/01/06/north-jersey-december-residential-sales/#comment-146211</link>
		<dc:creator>Ann</dc:creator>
		<pubDate>Tue, 08 Jan 2008 13:14:57 +0000</pubDate>
		<guid isPermaLink="false">http://njrereport.com/index.php/2008/01/06/north-jersey-december-residential-sales/#comment-146211</guid>
		<description>244 Clotpoll

Why the bashing on State U grads?  Sure, many colleges, not just &quot;State U&quot; have turned into Vo-Tech centers, but let&#039;s be real, many jobs don&#039;t involve advanced analytical thought either.  And rich kids who go to fancy schools don&#039;t end up in rehab?  Ha ha ha ha ha ha ha ha ha ha ha.  

Everyone I knew from my state college, ended up being quite successful and happy people, no matter where they ended up.</description>
		<content:encoded><![CDATA[<p>244 Clotpoll</p>
<p>Why the bashing on State U grads?  Sure, many colleges, not just &#8220;State U&#8221; have turned into Vo-Tech centers, but let&#8217;s be real, many jobs don&#8217;t involve advanced analytical thought either.  And rich kids who go to fancy schools don&#8217;t end up in rehab?  Ha ha ha ha ha ha ha ha ha ha ha.  </p>
<p>Everyone I knew from my state college, ended up being quite successful and happy people, no matter where they ended up.</p>
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	<item>
		<title>By: Essex</title>
		<link>http://njrereport.com/index.php/2008/01/06/north-jersey-december-residential-sales/#comment-146197</link>
		<dc:creator>Essex</dc:creator>
		<pubDate>Tue, 08 Jan 2008 05:51:26 +0000</pubDate>
		<guid isPermaLink="false">http://njrereport.com/index.php/2008/01/06/north-jersey-december-residential-sales/#comment-146197</guid>
		<description>The apostle of the alternative way is a white-haired, bespectacled former education editor of the New York Times named Loren Pope, whose book Colleges That Change Lives is the best-selling admissions guide, ahead of A Is for Admission: The Insider’s Guide to Getting Into the Ivy League and Other Top Colleges.

    He lays out all the ways in which the past 30 years have smiled on smaller schools. With rising prosperity, their endowments have grown. The number of Ph.D.s doubled from 1968 to 1998, meaning a deeper pool of professors to choose from.

    And in some ways the small schools gained an advantage over their prestigious rivals: after Sputnik, many colleges became research universities, “and smaller has been better for undergraduate education ever since,” Pope says. “At big research universities, professors spend more time researching than teaching.”

    Given the changes in the economy as well as the academy in the past 20 years, advocates for smaller schools argue that they give students a sharper competitive edge. “What most parents are concerned about is providing the best security for their child,” says Gay Pepper, head of college guidance at Greens Farms Academy, a private school in Westport, Conn. “Some see going to a brand-name college as providing that security.

    We have to shift that thinking. A college that is right for the student is the best form of investment.”</description>
		<content:encoded><![CDATA[<p>The apostle of the alternative way is a white-haired, bespectacled former education editor of the New York Times named Loren Pope, whose book Colleges That Change Lives is the best-selling admissions guide, ahead of A Is for Admission: The Insider’s Guide to Getting Into the Ivy League and Other Top Colleges.</p>
<p>    He lays out all the ways in which the past 30 years have smiled on smaller schools. With rising prosperity, their endowments have grown. The number of Ph.D.s doubled from 1968 to 1998, meaning a deeper pool of professors to choose from.</p>
<p>    And in some ways the small schools gained an advantage over their prestigious rivals: after Sputnik, many colleges became research universities, “and smaller has been better for undergraduate education ever since,” Pope says. “At big research universities, professors spend more time researching than teaching.”</p>
<p>    Given the changes in the economy as well as the academy in the past 20 years, advocates for smaller schools argue that they give students a sharper competitive edge. “What most parents are concerned about is providing the best security for their child,” says Gay Pepper, head of college guidance at Greens Farms Academy, a private school in Westport, Conn. “Some see going to a brand-name college as providing that security.</p>
<p>    We have to shift that thinking. A college that is right for the student is the best form of investment.”</p>
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		<title>By: Essex</title>
		<link>http://njrereport.com/index.php/2008/01/06/north-jersey-december-residential-sales/#comment-146196</link>
		<dc:creator>Essex</dc:creator>
		<pubDate>Tue, 08 Jan 2008 05:48:20 +0000</pubDate>
		<guid isPermaLink="false">http://njrereport.com/index.php/2008/01/06/north-jersey-december-residential-sales/#comment-146196</guid>
		<description>Yeah, the whole mystique of the Ivy league really diminishes once you have the opportunity to work along side some of these folks....solid thinking comes from many, many schools....remember that.</description>
		<content:encoded><![CDATA[<p>Yeah, the whole mystique of the Ivy league really diminishes once you have the opportunity to work along side some of these folks&#8230;.solid thinking comes from many, many schools&#8230;.remember that.</p>
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		<title>By: PGC's wife</title>
		<link>http://njrereport.com/index.php/2008/01/06/north-jersey-december-residential-sales/#comment-146195</link>
		<dc:creator>PGC's wife</dc:creator>
		<pubDate>Tue, 08 Jan 2008 05:38:19 +0000</pubDate>
		<guid isPermaLink="false">http://njrereport.com/index.php/2008/01/06/north-jersey-december-residential-sales/#comment-146195</guid>
		<description>#44 Clotpoll

&quot;That’s why State U-educated Johnny lives in the ‘rents finished basement, wakes up at noon and pops a coupla bong hits before his shift at Starbucks.&quot;

Well this State U-educate Jane has a hefty bank balance, no loans, and unlike Ivy-educated prats knows how to use a fax machine.  BTW - I was paid to attend graduate school, and had both my pick of schools and jobs thereafter.  Having worked with engineers from around the globe the MIT graduates were pathetic as a whole.</description>
		<content:encoded><![CDATA[<p>#44 Clotpoll</p>
<p>&#8220;That’s why State U-educated Johnny lives in the ‘rents finished basement, wakes up at noon and pops a coupla bong hits before his shift at Starbucks.&#8221;</p>
<p>Well this State U-educate Jane has a hefty bank balance, no loans, and unlike Ivy-educated prats knows how to use a fax machine.  BTW &#8211; I was paid to attend graduate school, and had both my pick of schools and jobs thereafter.  Having worked with engineers from around the globe the MIT graduates were pathetic as a whole.</p>
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		<title>By: njpatient</title>
		<link>http://njrereport.com/index.php/2008/01/06/north-jersey-december-residential-sales/#comment-146194</link>
		<dc:creator>njpatient</dc:creator>
		<pubDate>Tue, 08 Jan 2008 05:18:25 +0000</pubDate>
		<guid isPermaLink="false">http://njrereport.com/index.php/2008/01/06/north-jersey-december-residential-sales/#comment-146194</guid>
		<description>&quot;That’s why State U-educated Johnny lives in the ‘rents finished basement, wakes up at noon and pops a coupla bong hits before his shift at Starbucks&quot;

Not that there&#039;s anything wrong with that.</description>
		<content:encoded><![CDATA[<p>&#8220;That’s why State U-educated Johnny lives in the ‘rents finished basement, wakes up at noon and pops a coupla bong hits before his shift at Starbucks&#8221;</p>
<p>Not that there&#8217;s anything wrong with that.</p>
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		<title>By: lisoosh</title>
		<link>http://njrereport.com/index.php/2008/01/06/north-jersey-december-residential-sales/#comment-146193</link>
		<dc:creator>lisoosh</dc:creator>
		<pubDate>Tue, 08 Jan 2008 05:09:05 +0000</pubDate>
		<guid isPermaLink="false">http://njrereport.com/index.php/2008/01/06/north-jersey-december-residential-sales/#comment-146193</guid>
		<description>Clot, would it make you swoon if I told you I used to date a Celtic and Scotland player?

OK, in school before he joined either team - but it still counts!!!:-)</description>
		<content:encoded><![CDATA[<p>Clot, would it make you swoon if I told you I used to date a Celtic and Scotland player?</p>
<p>OK, in school before he joined either team &#8211; but it still counts!!!:-)</p>
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		<title>By: Clotpoll</title>
		<link>http://njrereport.com/index.php/2008/01/06/north-jersey-december-residential-sales/#comment-146192</link>
		<dc:creator>Clotpoll</dc:creator>
		<pubDate>Tue, 08 Jan 2008 05:01:42 +0000</pubDate>
		<guid isPermaLink="false">http://njrereport.com/index.php/2008/01/06/north-jersey-december-residential-sales/#comment-146192</guid>
		<description>lisoosh (268)-

Will check the Glasgow thing.  That&#039;d always be good for a Celtic/Rangers death match.  Probably the most intense rivalry in European soccer.  The England thing may be no good, as Allardyce is doing his best to screw up Newcastle for the next 10 years.  Guess I could pop over to London and catch Arsenal, though.

To hell with my kid&#039;s schooling, I want my &#039;ooligans and football.

SS (269)-

Trading accounts.  Every few months, it seemed like the programs and fees changed.  I never could get a handle and ended up taking my account to Schwab.</description>
		<content:encoded><![CDATA[<p>lisoosh (268)-</p>
<p>Will check the Glasgow thing.  That&#8217;d always be good for a Celtic/Rangers death match.  Probably the most intense rivalry in European soccer.  The England thing may be no good, as Allardyce is doing his best to screw up Newcastle for the next 10 years.  Guess I could pop over to London and catch Arsenal, though.</p>
<p>To hell with my kid&#8217;s schooling, I want my &#8216;ooligans and football.</p>
<p>SS (269)-</p>
<p>Trading accounts.  Every few months, it seemed like the programs and fees changed.  I never could get a handle and ended up taking my account to Schwab.</p>
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	</item>
	<item>
		<title>By: SS</title>
		<link>http://njrereport.com/index.php/2008/01/06/north-jersey-december-residential-sales/#comment-146191</link>
		<dc:creator>SS</dc:creator>
		<pubDate>Tue, 08 Jan 2008 04:54:00 +0000</pubDate>
		<guid isPermaLink="false">http://njrereport.com/index.php/2008/01/06/north-jersey-december-residential-sales/#comment-146191</guid>
		<description>Clot - phantom fees for the online savings account or just trading accounts?</description>
		<content:encoded><![CDATA[<p>Clot &#8211; phantom fees for the online savings account or just trading accounts?</p>
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	</item>
	<item>
		<title>By: lisoosh</title>
		<link>http://njrereport.com/index.php/2008/01/06/north-jersey-december-residential-sales/#comment-146190</link>
		<dc:creator>lisoosh</dc:creator>
		<pubDate>Tue, 08 Jan 2008 04:42:04 +0000</pubDate>
		<guid isPermaLink="false">http://njrereport.com/index.php/2008/01/06/north-jersey-december-residential-sales/#comment-146190</guid>
		<description>Sybarite - You got to Zeppelin? Hubby&#039;s dream, missed out on the lottery. Heard someone payed over $100k for tickets.

Hoping for a tour...........


Clot -- the whole Oxbridge area/experience/education is fabulous, and intense, and full of rich Arabs. Worth the time, although the social scene is expensive. Friends who went to Cambridge seemed to all receive amazingly eclectic educations. 
Lot are also heading over to Edinburgh/St. Andrews/Glasgow which I can heartily recommend. First two have the cache, but Glasgow is actually a REALLY good school.</description>
		<content:encoded><![CDATA[<p>Sybarite &#8211; You got to Zeppelin? Hubby&#8217;s dream, missed out on the lottery. Heard someone payed over $100k for tickets.</p>
<p>Hoping for a tour&#8230;&#8230;&#8230;..</p>
<p>Clot &#8212; the whole Oxbridge area/experience/education is fabulous, and intense, and full of rich Arabs. Worth the time, although the social scene is expensive. Friends who went to Cambridge seemed to all receive amazingly eclectic educations.<br />
Lot are also heading over to Edinburgh/St. Andrews/Glasgow which I can heartily recommend. First two have the cache, but Glasgow is actually a REALLY good school.</p>
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	<item>
		<title>By: Bloodbath in Winter 2007</title>
		<link>http://njrereport.com/index.php/2008/01/06/north-jersey-december-residential-sales/#comment-146189</link>
		<dc:creator>Bloodbath in Winter 2007</dc:creator>
		<pubDate>Tue, 08 Jan 2008 04:37:17 +0000</pubDate>
		<guid isPermaLink="false">http://njrereport.com/index.php/2008/01/06/north-jersey-december-residential-sales/#comment-146189</guid>
		<description>But nothing bad ever happens in the great Bergen County!!!

&lt;i&gt;grim Says:
January 5th, 2008 at 5:10 pm

Glen Rock Comp Killer

89 Hillman Ave, Glen Rock NJ

Purchased: 2/17/2006
Purchase Price: $530,000

MLS# 2733312 - REO

Sold: 1/4/2008
Sale Price: $350,000

34% under 2006 price.&lt;/i&gt;</description>
		<content:encoded><![CDATA[<p>But nothing bad ever happens in the great Bergen County!!!</p>
<p><i>grim Says:<br />
January 5th, 2008 at 5:10 pm</p>
<p>Glen Rock Comp Killer</p>
<p>89 Hillman Ave, Glen Rock NJ</p>
<p>Purchased: 2/17/2006<br />
Purchase Price: $530,000</p>
<p>MLS# 2733312 &#8211; REO</p>
<p>Sold: 1/4/2008<br />
Sale Price: $350,000</p>
<p>34% under 2006 price.</i></p>
]]></content:encoded>
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		<title>By: chicagofinance</title>
		<link>http://njrereport.com/index.php/2008/01/06/north-jersey-december-residential-sales/#comment-146188</link>
		<dc:creator>chicagofinance</dc:creator>
		<pubDate>Tue, 08 Jan 2008 04:30:29 +0000</pubDate>
		<guid isPermaLink="false">http://njrereport.com/index.php/2008/01/06/north-jersey-december-residential-sales/#comment-146188</guid>
		<description>Shore Guy Says: 
January 7th, 2008 at 11:27 pm 
# 153 “All I do is bilk people for marginal value at best.” It is good work when one can get it.

shore: got to get up at the crack of dawn for my next victim............BOOOYAAAAAA</description>
		<content:encoded><![CDATA[<p>Shore Guy Says:<br />
January 7th, 2008 at 11:27 pm<br />
# 153 “All I do is bilk people for marginal value at best.” It is good work when one can get it.</p>
<p>shore: got to get up at the crack of dawn for my next victim&#8230;&#8230;&#8230;&#8230;BOOOYAAAAAA</p>
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	<item>
		<title>By: chicagofinance</title>
		<link>http://njrereport.com/index.php/2008/01/06/north-jersey-december-residential-sales/#comment-146187</link>
		<dc:creator>chicagofinance</dc:creator>
		<pubDate>Tue, 08 Jan 2008 04:28:35 +0000</pubDate>
		<guid isPermaLink="false">http://njrereport.com/index.php/2008/01/06/north-jersey-december-residential-sales/#comment-146187</guid>
		<description>t c m Says: 
January 7th, 2008 at 10:00 pm 
#221 - yeah, but, what if none of them gets into the top college? then, who lost? wouldn’t it have been better to go to the best hs that you are able instead of some mediocre hs? face it, the top colleges are not going to load up on kid#3’s from the school in trenton any more than they’re going to load up on the others.

teese: I think you missed my point, did you read my other posts?  The gryffer understood what I meant....

Bear in mind, I certainly think it helped me get into Cornell Arts &amp; Science that I was some stupid $hitbag from 11355, whose mom was a secretary, dad didn&#039;t have a college degree and parents were divorced.  Not the blueprint that Pingry doles out mind you, but it was effective.</description>
		<content:encoded><![CDATA[<p>t c m Says:<br />
January 7th, 2008 at 10:00 pm<br />
#221 &#8211; yeah, but, what if none of them gets into the top college? then, who lost? wouldn’t it have been better to go to the best hs that you are able instead of some mediocre hs? face it, the top colleges are not going to load up on kid#3’s from the school in trenton any more than they’re going to load up on the others.</p>
<p>teese: I think you missed my point, did you read my other posts?  The gryffer understood what I meant&#8230;.</p>
<p>Bear in mind, I certainly think it helped me get into Cornell Arts &amp; Science that I was some stupid $hitbag from 11355, whose mom was a secretary, dad didn&#8217;t have a college degree and parents were divorced.  Not the blueprint that Pingry doles out mind you, but it was effective.</p>
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	<item>
		<title>By: Shore Guy</title>
		<link>http://njrereport.com/index.php/2008/01/06/north-jersey-december-residential-sales/#comment-146186</link>
		<dc:creator>Shore Guy</dc:creator>
		<pubDate>Tue, 08 Jan 2008 04:27:32 +0000</pubDate>
		<guid isPermaLink="false">http://njrereport.com/index.php/2008/01/06/north-jersey-december-residential-sales/#comment-146186</guid>
		<description># 153 &quot;All I do is bilk people for marginal value at best.&quot;

It is good work when one can get it.</description>
		<content:encoded><![CDATA[<p># 153 &#8220;All I do is bilk people for marginal value at best.&#8221;</p>
<p>It is good work when one can get it.</p>
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		<title>By: mneer1</title>
		<link>http://njrereport.com/index.php/2008/01/06/north-jersey-december-residential-sales/#comment-146185</link>
		<dc:creator>mneer1</dc:creator>
		<pubDate>Tue, 08 Jan 2008 04:13:24 +0000</pubDate>
		<guid isPermaLink="false">http://njrereport.com/index.php/2008/01/06/north-jersey-december-residential-sales/#comment-146185</guid>
		<description>Pain Street USA: &#039;08 housing outlook
The forecast is for a longer, deeper home-price slump than previously expected, with double-digit declines in many markets.
By Les Christie, CNNMoney.com staff writer

NEW YORK (CNNMoney.com) -- 

The United States is deep in its worst housing slump since the Great Depression, and according to a new report, it&#039;s not going to get better any time soon.

In a new survey, Moody&#039;s Economy.com says many metro areas will record losses of 20 percent or more during the downturn, with the national median price for single-family homes dropping 13 percent through early 2009. Factoring in discount offers from sellers, the actual price decline would be well over 15 percent.

Eighty of the 381 metro areas covered by the report will record double-digit losses, according to the report. Most of the worst-hit markets are in once high-flying areas, such as California and Florida.

Home spiff-ups for all seasons

 

The steep losses were bound to arrive sometime. Throughout the housing slump, which began in the summer of 2006, experts kept expecting prices to tumble, but it wasn&#039;t until recently that they dropped substantially, according to Mark Zandi, chief economist for Moody&#039;s Economy.com. 

&quot;There has been a sea change in seller psychology since the subprime shock this summer,&quot; he said. &quot;Sellers now realize they have to drop their prices to make a sale and prices are coming down very rapidly in some markets.&quot; 

One such place is Punta Gorda, Fla. In Moody&#039;s outlook, prices there will undergo the steepest correction of any U.S. market. From their peak during the first three months of 2006, to their bottom, forecast for the second quarter of 2009, prices will decline 35.3 percent. That&#039;s in nominal dollars; adjusted for inflation, the loss will be even greater. 

Other metro areas expected to go through crushing price drops include: Stockton, Calif., where prices are forecast to drop 31.6 percent, Modesto, Calif. (-31.3 percent), Fort Walton Beach, Fla. (-30.4 percent) and Naples, Fla. (-29.6 percent). 

The worst hit market outside the Sun Belt is expected to be Ocean City, N.J. where prices will fall 24.9 percent, according to Moody&#039;s. Prices in St. George, Utah (-21.8 percent), Grand Junction, Colo. (-18.9 percent) and Atlantic City, N.J. (-18.6 percent) will also suffer. In the Washington, D.C. metro area, Moody&#039;s forecasts a decline of 18.4 percent.

Home prices are being pulled down by an even more severe decline in home sales, which Moody&#039;s expects to bottom out in early 2008, when unit sales will be down more than 40 percent from their peak.

Home builders continued to add to inventory even as the slump got well under way, contributing to what is now an 11-month back-log of homes for sale, according to the National Association of Realtors.

Many of these homes are sitting completely empty: The Census Bureau reported a total of 2.1 million vacant homes for sale. Vacant homes add pressure on prices because owners of these houses are usually more willing to slash prices to move the properties. They cost out-of-pocket cash each month while providing neither income nor shelter.

Even though home construction has now contracted severely - the Census Bureau reported Tuesday that new housing starts were down to an annualized rate of 1.187 million units in November, the lowest in 16 years - it will take time to work through the excess inventory.

The housing slump will have a substantial impact on the overall economy, according to Moody&#039;s, which says it will depress real gross domestic product by more than a percentage point this year and by 1.5 percentage points in 2008.

Speculative investment in the mid-2000s helped fuel the current slump. Zandi pointed out that 16 percent of mortgage originations during 2005 were for non-owner-occupied housing, twice the number of a few years earlier.

&quot;And that&#039;s a very conservative estimate of investor demand,&quot; he said. &quot;Many home buyers lied on their mortgage applications.&quot; That&#039;s because interest rates are lower for owner/occupied dwellings.

Buying for investment was especially prevalent in many resort areas, such as Ocean City, N.J. Many buyers were betting they could hold onto the property for a short time and sell it for a quick profit, a difficult feat to finesse, considering the high transactional costs. Many speculators came late to the party and got caught in the slump. Now their properties are adding to mountainous inventories.

Another factor was excessive new home construction, especially in once hot markets. As prices skyrocketed, builders rushed to take advantage of the increases, contributing to the now high inventories.

Also adding homes to markets was the increase in foreclosure filings. When lenders take back properties, they put them back on the markets. Foreclosures have just about doubled this year.

For the slump to end, much of the excess inventory will have to be worked through. Zandi doesn&#039;t envision that happening much before 2010, which he forecasts to be a very modest recovery year with low, single-digit growth.</description>
		<content:encoded><![CDATA[<p>Pain Street USA: &#8217;08 housing outlook<br />
The forecast is for a longer, deeper home-price slump than previously expected, with double-digit declines in many markets.<br />
By Les Christie, CNNMoney.com staff writer</p>
<p>NEW YORK (CNNMoney.com) &#8212; </p>
<p>The United States is deep in its worst housing slump since the Great Depression, and according to a new report, it&#8217;s not going to get better any time soon.</p>
<p>In a new survey, Moody&#8217;s Economy.com says many metro areas will record losses of 20 percent or more during the downturn, with the national median price for single-family homes dropping 13 percent through early 2009. Factoring in discount offers from sellers, the actual price decline would be well over 15 percent.</p>
<p>Eighty of the 381 metro areas covered by the report will record double-digit losses, according to the report. Most of the worst-hit markets are in once high-flying areas, such as California and Florida.</p>
<p>Home spiff-ups for all seasons</p>
<p>The steep losses were bound to arrive sometime. Throughout the housing slump, which began in the summer of 2006, experts kept expecting prices to tumble, but it wasn&#8217;t until recently that they dropped substantially, according to Mark Zandi, chief economist for Moody&#8217;s Economy.com. </p>
<p>&#8220;There has been a sea change in seller psychology since the subprime shock this summer,&#8221; he said. &#8220;Sellers now realize they have to drop their prices to make a sale and prices are coming down very rapidly in some markets.&#8221; </p>
<p>One such place is Punta Gorda, Fla. In Moody&#8217;s outlook, prices there will undergo the steepest correction of any U.S. market. From their peak during the first three months of 2006, to their bottom, forecast for the second quarter of 2009, prices will decline 35.3 percent. That&#8217;s in nominal dollars; adjusted for inflation, the loss will be even greater. </p>
<p>Other metro areas expected to go through crushing price drops include: Stockton, Calif., where prices are forecast to drop 31.6 percent, Modesto, Calif. (-31.3 percent), Fort Walton Beach, Fla. (-30.4 percent) and Naples, Fla. (-29.6 percent). </p>
<p>The worst hit market outside the Sun Belt is expected to be Ocean City, N.J. where prices will fall 24.9 percent, according to Moody&#8217;s. Prices in St. George, Utah (-21.8 percent), Grand Junction, Colo. (-18.9 percent) and Atlantic City, N.J. (-18.6 percent) will also suffer. In the Washington, D.C. metro area, Moody&#8217;s forecasts a decline of 18.4 percent.</p>
<p>Home prices are being pulled down by an even more severe decline in home sales, which Moody&#8217;s expects to bottom out in early 2008, when unit sales will be down more than 40 percent from their peak.</p>
<p>Home builders continued to add to inventory even as the slump got well under way, contributing to what is now an 11-month back-log of homes for sale, according to the National Association of Realtors.</p>
<p>Many of these homes are sitting completely empty: The Census Bureau reported a total of 2.1 million vacant homes for sale. Vacant homes add pressure on prices because owners of these houses are usually more willing to slash prices to move the properties. They cost out-of-pocket cash each month while providing neither income nor shelter.</p>
<p>Even though home construction has now contracted severely &#8211; the Census Bureau reported Tuesday that new housing starts were down to an annualized rate of 1.187 million units in November, the lowest in 16 years &#8211; it will take time to work through the excess inventory.</p>
<p>The housing slump will have a substantial impact on the overall economy, according to Moody&#8217;s, which says it will depress real gross domestic product by more than a percentage point this year and by 1.5 percentage points in 2008.</p>
<p>Speculative investment in the mid-2000s helped fuel the current slump. Zandi pointed out that 16 percent of mortgage originations during 2005 were for non-owner-occupied housing, twice the number of a few years earlier.</p>
<p>&#8220;And that&#8217;s a very conservative estimate of investor demand,&#8221; he said. &#8220;Many home buyers lied on their mortgage applications.&#8221; That&#8217;s because interest rates are lower for owner/occupied dwellings.</p>
<p>Buying for investment was especially prevalent in many resort areas, such as Ocean City, N.J. Many buyers were betting they could hold onto the property for a short time and sell it for a quick profit, a difficult feat to finesse, considering the high transactional costs. Many speculators came late to the party and got caught in the slump. Now their properties are adding to mountainous inventories.</p>
<p>Another factor was excessive new home construction, especially in once hot markets. As prices skyrocketed, builders rushed to take advantage of the increases, contributing to the now high inventories.</p>
<p>Also adding homes to markets was the increase in foreclosure filings. When lenders take back properties, they put them back on the markets. Foreclosures have just about doubled this year.</p>
<p>For the slump to end, much of the excess inventory will have to be worked through. Zandi doesn&#8217;t envision that happening much before 2010, which he forecasts to be a very modest recovery year with low, single-digit growth.</p>
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