Wed 9 Jan 2008
North Jersey December Pending Home Sales
Categories: Economics , Housing Bubble , New Jersey Real EstateContracts for sale in Northern NJ fell to their lowest in more than two years (actually much worse, see below) in December, down approximately 31% year over year (NJMLS & GSMLS). Tremendous weakness was seen in the fringe commuter areas, as Sussex and Warren were down 41% and 51% year over year, respectively. Quite surprisingly, Passaic County seems to have held it’s ground in December, with contract sales falling approximately 12% to 15% (depending on which MLS system we track).
The strength in pending home sales seen early this year has not only faded, but since has reversed. Many housing pundits hailed the strength seen during January and February of 2007 as a recovery of the NJ real estate market. Unfortunately, that strength was short lived as the market weakened notably in the months that followed. Particularly interesting is the steep decline seen across both MLS systems and all counties (see the XLS below) in August. As credit markets seized, so did the North Jersey market.
This data is one month more recent than the National Association of Realtors Pending Home Sales index released yesterday, thus is a more timely indicator. This is not an index but a count of actual contracts signed. Not every contract results in a sale.
To give you a taste of how bad December actually was, here are the December contracts for Bergen from NJMLS. NJMLS data goes back considerably further than GSMLS. Bergen contracts have fallen to a 13 year low, a level likely not seen since the last real estate bubble burst in NJ.
Bergen Contracts
NJMLS
1995 - 445
1996 - 477
1997 - 529
1998 - 676
1999 - 536
2000 - 480
2001 - 600
2002 - 586
2003 - 667
2004 - 684
2005 - 683
2006 - 629
2007 - 393
North Jersey Pending Home Sales (XLS)
Year over year Pending Home Sales by County
Bergen
GSMLS
December 2006 -117
December 2007 -83 (-29.1%)
NJMLS
December 2006 -629
December 2007 - 394 (-37.4%)
Essex
GSMLS
December 2006 - 303
December 2007 - 226 (-25.4%)
NJMLS
December 2006 - 97
December 2007 - 79 (-18.6%)
Hunterdon
GSMLS
December 2006 - 92
December 2007 - 65 (-29.3%)
Middlesex*
GSMLS
December 2006 - 89
December 2007 - 51 (-42.7%)
* Note - GSMLS is not the primary MLS for Middlesex
Morris
GSMLS
December 2006 - 370
December 2007 - 222 (-40.0%)
Passaic
GSMLS
December 2006 - 178
December 2007 - 157 (-11.8%)
NJMLS
December 2006 - 177
December 2007 - 149 (-15.8%)
Somerset
GSMLS
December 2006 - 234
December 2007 - 160 (-31.6%)
Sussex
GSMLS
December 2006 - 134
December 2007 - 79 (-41.0%)
Union
GSMLS
December 2006 - 242
December 2007 - 172 (-28.9%)
Warren
GSMLS
December 2006 - 88
December 2007 - 43 (-51.1%)
December Total
GSMLS
December 2006 - 1847
December 2007 - 1258 (-31.9%)
NJMLS
December 2006 - 903
December 2007 - 622 (-31.1%)
Year over year change in contract sales - 2007 vs. 2006
GSMLS
January 10.8%
February 2.4%
March -9.6%
April -7.9%
May -3.5%
June 1.0%
July 2.7%
August -19.5%
September -21.5%
October -16.5%
November -24.6%
December -31.9%
YTD -9.0%
NJMLS
January 18.5%
February 9.3%
March -6.4%
April -3.1%
May -6.9%
June -3.3%
July 9.6%
August -16.1%
September -24.8%
October -19.9%
November -25.9%
December -31.1%
YTD -8.3
Ouch…. I was thinking that this spring might be the time to buy…. Now I might look at rentals instead…. I look at prices and sellers just do not give up - 5K reductions on 400K house, 1k reduction on 300K house- just not doing it for me.
By the way - a question to people here:
Please feel free to express your opinion:
I am a professional - PhD in chemistry,working in my field.
My Employer will pay for a part time MBA - they will cover all costs.
Employer probably will not cover a big name school tuition - like NYU Stern, or Columbia (I think, in part they are thinking that with degree from thouse schools it will be very hard for them to retain me).
Rutgers Buisness school is a done deal - I got approval and if I decede to do it it wil be paid 100%.. They will not impose any requirements on curriculum - I can get it in hotel management if I want to - right now I am thinking of concentrating on - you guessed it - finance/corporate management (or may be Rutgers Pharm-MBA programm - seems to be one of the best in the country)..
So from your opinion - for PhD professional, will Rutgers MBA improve possible carrer path, earning potential and such??
I am 30 right now. In short- is it worth the effort as it is a quite an ordeal. Espetially with small baby and full time job.
Whats you thoughts on this?
2010 for me
I’m pulling together the data, but I believe that December pending sales were the lowest since 2000 on GSMLS, but only because the dataset only goes back to 2000.
NJMLS has a deeper dataset, and it has Bergen contracts as the worst in 13 years.
Al, do you have a whole heck of a lot of other things to do in your spare time?
What are the downsides?
- Cost? No.
- You won’t ever use it? Not likely.
- Not as much time for blog reading? Not likely…in fact, you have a bunch of resources here to save time.
- Possible regrets later in life that you didn’t go full time/to a name brand place?
Maybe. So you could go again later.
You don’t seem to have many downsides.
Wonder how Suzanne is doing?
I can’t wait to get that 5 bedroom 3 bath in Upper Saddle River for $300,000…
Al- like you’ve found out with your baby, you make time. I got my MBA while still working full time and it sucked at times, but it wasn’t that bad. A big piece will be the program you pick. If it’s you and a bunch of 23 yr olds without a job going full time then it may be tough. No one to relate to, profs that think everyone only has school and no job, classmates wanting to work on projects together at 1pm, not weekends, etc.
What about an executive program that caters to older working people.
grim, have u checked the MLS, and seen how few homes have sold in Jan. For Bergen county
What about an executive program that caters to older working people.
Excectutive program is for people with quite a bit more job experience than what I have, and generally for professionals in middle manager position already..
Also, I assume, since I am considering part time MBA only (still need to make living while going to school) I will be with taking classes with people like myself.
From MarketWatch:
Mortgage applications rose 32.2% last week: MBA
Applications for mortgages jumped a seasonally adjusted 32.2% in the week ended Jan. 4 compared with the week before, due largely to a sharp increase in refinancing filings, the Mortgage Bankers Association reported Wednesday.
Interest rates on fixed-rate mortgages dropped last week, according to the MBA’s weekly survey.
Total mortgage application volumes were up an unadjusted 8.7% compared with the same week a year ago, the MBA said.
The latest week, the mortgage group noted, was shortened by the New Year’s holiday.
Applications to refinance an existing loans increased 53.9% on a week-to-week basis, while purchase applications rose a seasonally adjusted 14.7%.
Al I did my MS at night, it was a bit tough to do lab research but that was the only difficulty. I have actually considered going back to get my pharm management MBA as well. You can probably apply some of your pHD credits to knock down the time you’ll spend completing the program. Generally, most programs will accept up to nine credits.
If you go to school for hotel management your company can pay but it is unrelated to your work and will be taxable income. Check on IRS website for rules. The MBA Finance is tax free as it is general enough to relate back to your work.
Al,
Here is the issue, plain and simple: You can “relatively” easily turn your PhD in Chemistry into a career in equity research following the big chemical companies. Your insider knowledge would be a huge asset to the big firms. That being said, these larger equity research shops will look to the bigger name brand schools first. Also these schools will have a much better track record with the larger firms as well as a better recruiting relationship, THIS IS ESSENTIAL! You need that recruiting relationship to get an interview as a career switcher, otherwise your resume will fall into the “circular file”. I know because I went through this last year. If you stay a Phd in Chemicals you will find little use for your MBA. However, if it is free then I say take it if you have the time(it might come in handy down the road). Without risk there is no reward. If you really want to change careers then go big name. Even better, quit your job and go full time as this is the best way to career switch. Email me for more advice on the subject.
Executive MBAs are considerably more expensive. However when you balance it with work, it may be a better option.
I would go for it. I owned a business in my early twenties and I never thought that I would need my undergraduate degree. I was wrong.
I can’t really concentrate on the data today as the season finale of GG is on tonight plus a new episiode of CM. The housing data is so depressing I need a diverson.
2 Al
What are you thinking of doing once you get the MBA? Not sure what industry you work in now, I’m assuming pharma? It sounds like you’re working as a Ph.D. chemist.
I think the most important thing is to know what your goal is when deciding to go for an MBA or not. Is it to facilitate a switch (example from R&D to marketing)? Also, research if you really need the MBA to make the switch and of course, will an MBA ensure that you can switch?
My advice is always to make sure that you really want to make the switch. Like, let’s say you want to switch from R&D to marketing. You probably make a switch like that without an MBA, so try to do that first before you go start the MBA program, which as you already said, is going to be a long haul, especially with a baby and a FT job.
Of course, it may be a switch that you can’t make without an MBA (finance). A switch like that is a TOTAL career change, so tread carefully there too. Are you motivated mostly by increased earning potential, or do you really have a passion for the field that you are thinking the MBA will get you into. It’s ok to be motivated by money, but if you don’t like the field, what’s the point?
It sounds like you are relatively young and I’m assuming that if you got a Ph.D. you haven’t been working that many years. If your goal is to get out of R&D or any of the other traditional Ph.D. jobs, consider other fields first (marketing, medical writing, medical communications, quality, regulatory). It sounds like you are early enough in your career that you could make a switch like this. Your Ph.D. would serve you well, you wouldn’t need an MBA and if you end up happier, great!
Al,
When posted a job opening for a chemistry position, we received 600+ applications. better get out of Chemistry. I am an organic chemistry Ph.D. There is not much hope for chemistry unless you worked for a Nobel Laurate. I do not know much about MBA, but if you can move in to analytical chemisty or drug metababolism in drug development area,
we still have some jobs left in NJ. The situation for chemists in NJ pharma sector will get only worse as lot of CROs are opening in India and China.
Good Luck!
Looking,
It’s way to early to compare January sales, but here is what I pulled from NJMLS for Bergen County for Jan 1 - 8.
1999 120
2000 107
2001 118
2002 126
2003 133
2004 129
2005 155
2006 101
2007 98
2008 65
Um…. I’ve a…. sort of changed careers…. things have been a little tough and I had to… you know…. improvise a little. Listen, I got to go, my nine o’clock is here.
Re 17
BTW, I have an advanced degree in chem and so does my husband. I stay home right now and am a freelance writer for magazines that don’t have anything to do with chemistry and I am happy as could be.
My husband also has a Ph.D. in chemistry and also doesn’t work in anything to do with chemistry anymore and he is happy as a lark too and making a nice bit of money now.
No offense to anyone who really likes chemistry, but it’s a rough road. Don’t confuse wanting to get out of Ph.D. chemistry with wanting to go get an MBA in finance. There are other ways to get out of chemistry!
Al #2
What is the reason for the MBA? If you are planning to switch careers it’s best to go full time. I just graduated from NYU Stern part-time and it is tough to go through recruiting as a part time student. I had some success but was the exception not the rule.
Don’t waste your time on a lesser school as options from a lesser place will not exist.
Here is Under Contract (Pending Sales) data for the same period (still, way to early).
NJMLS for Bergen County for Jan 1 - 8
1999 119
2000 148
2001 104
2002 146
2003 135
2004 111
2005 159
2006 99
2007 145
2008 84
Stu Says:
January 9th, 2008 at 2:32 am
In other news for ChiFi. Moghul Morristown lost their lease. IMO, Rupee for rupee, Akbar is the best Indian value in NJ with Moghul Edison being the most authentic fancy Indian restaurant. Aangan is quite good, but a little pricey.
Stu: thank you…..my wife and I were always partial to Moghul Edison. We lived in Iselin briefly about 10 years ago, and we would walk (for walking’s sake) from Route 1 and Green Street to Moghul (oh quite a scenic 45 minute stroll). I think we were at Akbar back when it first opened. Is that the converted diner?
Al,
I’ve no advice to offer but I wish you all the luck. FWIW I know people who’ve done their MBA’s from RU part-time and they all say it’s very easy. I don’t know what that means.
Mogul in Edison? *shudder*
Rasoi is much better.
#22 Trader
I went through the exact same thing at Stern in 2006. Full time is definitely the way to go for career switchers. Still happy I did it but I wish I knew this going in! I also was able to land some good interviews but it was tough going.
From Reuters:
Goldman Sachs sees recession in 2008
Goldman Sachs on Wednesday said it expects the U.S. economy to drop into recession this year, prompting the Federal Reserve to slash benchmark lending rates to 2.5 percent by the third quarter.
In a note to clients, Goldman said real gross domestic product would contract by 1 percent on an annualized basis in both the second and third quarters. For all of 2008, the investment bank said GDP would rise by 0.8 percent.
The unemployment rate will rise to 6.5 percent in 2009 from the current 5 percent, it said.
The weakening economy will force the Fed to lower policy rates by an additional 1.75 percentage points from the current 4.25 percent. Starting in September, the Fed cut rates at the last three meetings of the Federal Open Market Committee, reducing the target rate on loans between banks by 1 percentage point from 5.25 percent.
…
On Monday, Merrill Lynch economist David Rosenberg said the jump in U.S. unemployment in December confirmed that the economy was entering a recession.
To Ann post # 21:
I liked chemistry too. But as
pine_brook Says:
January 9th, 2008 at 8:51 am
Al,
When posted a job opening for a chemistry position, we received 600+ applications. better get out of Chemistry.
said chemistry is in decline. And all I see right now is that Universities are producing more and more PhD’s with no Jobs added - actually Jobs are declining fast.
I think I am fairly safe right now, but in the future 5-10 years from now - nobody can tell.
Ann -No offense to anyone who really likes chemistry, but it’s a rough road. Don’t confuse wanting to get out of Ph.D. chemistry with wanting to go get an MBA in finance. There are other ways to get out of chemistry!
ny Idea on what are the other ways out of chmistry - working at wall-mart??
Do not get me wrong - I like what I do, but I see it very clearly int he next 5 years somebody up high will decede that they just spend way to much money on US workforce and will move the company to China or India…
And than what?
Ph.D. jobs, consider other fields first (marketing, medical writing, medical communications, quality, regulatory).
What I see right now - job opening in thouse fields require 5-10 years of experience in the FIELD already!!!
(ok May be not marketing, but why whould MBA not help with Marketing?)
The reality - R@D is disappearing and now there are a lot more people looking for a job than Job Openings. We recently hired 1 scientist - we got over 100+ resumes in one week.
Rich,
At some point you will see a spike in sales as some morons will think that they are getting a bargain 10-15% off 2005 and low interest rates, maybe now in January.
However, after this crowd is in the books down we go again countinuosly until sometime in 2012.
I’ve said before that we need either double digit interest rates or a recession and it seems like we got one. (and I believe that hyper inflation is coming too, hence 2012).
5% unemployment is still considered full employment we need to get to 8%-10%.
I think the full time NYU MBA will only help you if you are one of the few graduates who get right into Goldman, Lehman etc during full time campus recruiting.
The MBA is a Great thing to have. My brother and I went at same time and graduated sametime in the fall of 1991. He graduated NYU me SJU. There were no jobs on Wall Street or in banking period at that time. Two business connections got me interviews but competition was fierce. An FX trading desk had HR interview 200 MBA candidates for 4 jobs and I got a call back and was told I should be proud to be in top 50 considered, woo woo, no job. Second shot was I sat on a charity board and got a shot at being a Sec Lending Trader at MS and landed the job, but I opened the newspaper that next day and YE 1991 numbers just came out and MS had a job freeze and my verbal offer was canceled. Called back MS next year when things were better and was told that Sec Lending Trader training program is for new MBA candidates only, they don’t go back to prior year classes. Sad part my brother from NYU was impressed I even got two interviews. My brother got none, even more insulting to my brother is he was already making six figures and NYU took credit for his salary when they did their report on average starting salaries for new grads.
The MBA is always good to have on resume, but the day you graduate Wall Street and Banking needs to be in Happy times or you will get no quick payoff. NYU Spring 2008 grads GOOD LUCK. I pay for my staff’s MBA and so far have not lost anyone to GOLDMAN.
Al,
Assuming you’re in the Pharma or Biotech industries, I think an MBA is an excellent decision. It would not only be a way to distinguish yourself from the other PhD’s, but also a hedge against contraction of the R+D world which is already happening.
I say go for it.
I am not really looking at switching careers to Wall street trader. I’d like to stay in my industry, but right now PhD’s are limited to researches or at best low to middle management.
If you ever want to move-up to a decision making level - well I do not knwo what you really need.
Thats in part why I am asking.
#34
Well, strictly speaking, you already have the requisite degree to get into upper-middle and upper management. Most VP’s in my company have either MBA or PhD, but very few have both. I wouldn’t say an MBA is a requirement, as long as you distinguish yourself professionally.
However, in the course of obtaining the MBA, you would potentially learn how to better distinguish yourself from your peers.
Your company may differ, but I think really any kind of advanced degree is really the only requisite for moving beyond middle-management. Moving beyond further up simply requires proving yourself.
Al #34,
If you ever want to move-up to a decision making level - well I do not knwo what you really need.
Does your employer offer a mentoring program? I’d sign up if it does. Sometimes, the best people to ask are the people who actually do it.
Al and Ann,
When my company closed down chemistry department in NJ and moved all the jobs out of country, I was given a chance in drug development area along with 3 other chemists.
All of us tried to get jobs in NJ with other companies in drug discovery as chemists. Sadly none of us succeeded. many of my chemist friends are telling me to hold on to whatever the job dearly. Future for NJ Pharma does not look good. I am hearing that big pharma is trying to outsource drug development jobs too to Indian companies.
Another interesting thing I noticed when we posted job oppening is that 95% of the applicants with Ph.D. in chemistry are immigrants! I think we have lot more chemists than we need at this moment. I myself is an immigrant.
A chemist can move in to regulatory affairs, GLP QA, analytical chemisty, drug metabolism, patent division, gov jobs in FDA, EPA, USDA etc.
Try to hang on!
# 7 !!!!
would love to be your neighbor ..keep me posted.
A 5/3 in Upper Saddle River for $300k?
Only if USR goes the way of Plainfield, Branch Brook (Newark), or East Side Park (Paterson).
Expecting riots in Hackensack?
al,
if i had the opportunity to receive and MBA for free, i’d jump on it. i was recently laid off and now competing for jobs with mba grads. i might as well just have a g.e.d..
Pine_Brook you didn’t happen to work for GSK? A bunch of my former colleagues got outsourced late 2006 all chemists. Funny thing is they laughed at me when I made the switch to QA/corporate auditor in 2002.
I hear you Al! I LOVED studying chemistry. I wouldn’t have changed my undergrad major at all. However, I’m not sure I would have gone on to the Ph.D. looking back.
There are so many ways out of chemistry. Here is my advice, take it with a grain of salt.
First of all, I’m assuming you are young (I think you said 30) and haven’t been working that long. So, you are not making that much money that you can’t switch yet.
Do you work for a pharma company? If so, do they have a marketing department? You would be surprised, you might be able to get yourself into an associate product manager in marketing. They probably make the same amount of money as you do, so no issue there. Will you have to make a case? You bet! Make an appointment to talk to a director in marketing just to do some career exploring.
If that’s not an option, the other classic way out is to go work for vendor that serves pharma clients. For example, with a Ph.D., you could easily be a medical writer for a vendor that does medical communications. This is a great gateway job to get out of chemistry and into the other side of the business (medical marketing). You do a year or two there, and you are well positioned to get a job in medical affairs, medical communications, that sort of thing. Then once you are back in, marketing, regulatory, medical communications, all of that is back on your plate of options.
Another idea, not sure how sales-y you are, but how about becoming a rep, if you have the personality? Another excellent gateway job. If you want to be an executive at a pharma company, a career in sales will never do you wrong.
An MBA will help with marketing for sure. Can you get an MBA at RU and fall into a marketing job at a pharma company? Possibly, but not guaranteed. More importantly, there may be other ways around it without torturing yourself for the next four years!
Here’s the important thing if you want to make a switch out of R&D. You have to be willing to let go of the Ph.D. a bit and open up your mind to other areas that don’t necessarily require a Ph.D. Don’t expect to be compensated for the Ph.D. necessarily. BUT, the fact that you have a Ph.D. in chem shows that you are a smart guy and it is that attribute that will serve you well no matter what you go into.
My main point is to try to find a way to explore another area without signing up at Rutgers, slaving away in the lab for the next four years while you hoof it to RU at night. A few years later, you’ll just have MORE science experience on your resume (possibly a liability) and to be honest, a PT RU MBA is not going to be an instant ticket to something awesome anyway. Exploring other options first may save you those years of PT MBAing it, you get out of the lab quicker, which is the goal anyway, and you may find something where your Ph.D. is useful anyway.
Of course, if you want to make a total switch, then go for it, but you might want to consider making the sacrifice as other people mentioned, and just trying to go to the best MBA program you can.
Sorry for the novel, this is something very near and dear to my heart. I think our current grad school system in the sciences is exploitative and only serves the professors and institutions, leaving good, hardworking young people with not-such-good options after years of labor and sacrifice.
Ridgewood Comp Killer
651 Midwood Ave, Ridgewood NJ
Purchased: 10/31/2005
Purchase Price: $575,000
MLS# 2461818
Original List Price: $589,900
Currently Asking: $539,000
6% under 2005 price
Make Money 31
I agree with most of your points, but did you see the M1 and M2 data from yesterday???? It looks like we may be heading into deflation, no disinflation, but real deflation. A deflationary scenario has the potential to be devastating in that suddenly people with huge Credit card balance/ car notes / mortgages will owe a greatly increased amount of :money” due to the increased vale as the dollar deflates
Grim
any further thoughts on the meet up? date? time?
GS is now even more bearish on housing:
Nevertheless, Goldman said real gross domestic product would only rise 0.8 percent for 2008. The investment bank added that the economy would contract by 1 percent on an annualized basis in both the second and third quarters. As a result, the unemployment rate would jump to 6.5 percent in 2009 from the current 5 percent, it said.
Consumer spending and corporate profits will be hurt, the bank said.
http://www.cnbc.com/id/22570827
“With our switch to an outright recession call, we have also deepened our forecast for the cumulative decline in nominal house prices, to a 20-25 percent peak-to-trough decline from a 15 percent drop previously,” Goldman said.
moghul in Morristown reopened in headquarters plaza as mehndi
http://www.mehtanirestaurantgroup.com/
#46
What do you gyus think about Caffe India in Morristown? I went to Moghul right before it closed in its previous location, and wasn’t as satisfied as from Caffe India. Perhaps it’s psychological though, since I prefer BYO places…
Anybody interesting to buy in short hills? I got good two good deals and have to give up one. Listing price 995k and accepted price is 900k(OLP was 1129K). email me wendyliuwl@yahoo.com
# 42 Ann that is the most comprehensive and best advice for getting out of a science job while not throwing your degree in the toilet I have seen. It is also exactly the tact I took when making my career change, kudos.
Getting back to housing if Countrywide and the tan man shut their doors. What happens to their foreclosures in process? I’m just curious as they have a litany of sheriff’s sales. Do they still send out staff to bid as a proxy of CW’s creditor’s or can you basically snatch a deal? Not that I would do it, the process is way to involved and frought with pitfalls for me but a more industrious person may be able to benefit.
holy s! CFC sub $5
Uncle Angelo might finally loose his tan.
#50
Yeah, wow, I’m surprised it’s going that low. If I had some cojones, I’d buy a ton of CFC right now. I seriously doubt they’ll go under.
All disclaimers.
Kettle,
Money supply is a good indicator however ask yourself this.
What’s gonna happen when the value of the dollar hits that imaginary value when the foreign dollar holders finally decide to take their losses and send them all back home?
Remember during the Great Depression the dollar actually went up while the deflation was taking place. reason? it was backed by gold!
“Eileen Says:
January 9th, 2008 at 7:59 am
Wonder how Suzanne is doing?”
She’s being prepped to testify in that couples divorce trial.
Secondary [50],
Same story, different firm. Denials, accusations and eventual demise. Unfortunately, you can’t make no-doc, liar loans to millions upon millions of unqualified buyers without losing it all.
thats fine with me. purge and reinvent the industry starting with the demise of cfc. we’ll see where their CD rates go now.
#39 grim,
what is USR?
nevermind, duh.
Make 52
Once again you have a good point. But another “unknown unknown” is the question of whether the world is willing to sink the US economy. As we have seen with the mortgage/SIV mess the global markets are more tightly link then may be comfortable/prudent. If countries and banks stat to dump the dollar in any significant quantities then they are going to be hit by serious blowback as the US sinks in hyperinflation. As you pointed out, during the depression the dollar was still backed by gold, but there was also the fact that national economies where no where nearly as tightly linked as they are now. We function within a global banking system now, not individual national systems. There will be little to no insulation for the countries and banks that would dump the US$.
I think that accelerated inflation is still a possibility but the #’s currently point towards deflation. I am taking a shot in the dark at this one, but since our money is based on debt and debt appears to be being destroyed in the form of forgiven loans and write-offs, it would seem that we are currently deflating
Sybarite Says:
January 9th, 2008 at 10:12 am
#50 Yeah, wow, I’m surprised it’s going that low. If I had some cojones, I’d buy a ton of CFC right now. I seriously doubt they’ll go under. All disclaimers.
S: No one can know about CFC until after the dust settles……please bear this one in mind…in another life I got whacked with Enron after making a bundle off Tyco….this flat out feels (at 10:30AM on 1/9/08) more like Enron than Tyco. I could be wrong, but either way, the right call is to stay away.
To be clear:
TYC = crooks dealing with intact business
Enron = crooks dealing with a f— business
Make money,
regarding countries dumping the dollar at some point….
I agree that that appears to be a real concern, but as i am sure you are aware it may be a fools choice. A good example is the petrodollar. Many of the OPEC nations would love to drop the petrodollar and go to another currency. But, what other currencies are suitable? The euro is considered to have to many inherent stability issues ( due to constant EU partner bickering and wrangling) as well as it does not have enough volume in circulation to try and replace the dollar. The chinese renminbi isn’t a great option as china is flying high and low on fuel. They are set to take a sizable plunge in the near future. Long story short, there is no readily apparent replacement for the petrodollar. The same issue exists somewhat in the general currency market
There are 2 camps that are rarely wrong in my opinion. Buffet and GS.
Still more price pain to go for buyers.
I looked at the RU part-time MBA program and I was not thrilled. It seemed like a long road for a marginal payoff. I have a chemistry background and I currently work in IT supporting R&D labs in pharma - kind of a niche role. An MBA from a school like RU or SHU makes sense if you’re in the financial business already or if your management is grooming you for bigger and better things. I didn’t see it opening doors and I figured I could try out different things at my present employer if I was bored with my present role. Career switchers are better off going back full time to a name-brand school (I realize that may not be an option for many). For my situation, I didn’t want to spend 4+ years at RU pursuing a degree that could very well lead to a job paying less than the one that I have now. If you’re a science/tech person and your management is grooming you, go for it, otherwise you will be seen as a lab person with an MBA and nothing more.
“I could be wrong, but either way, the right call is to stay away.”
Chi [59],
I agree. Countrywide says it will be profitable at the end of the year. Short sellers say it is dead in the water. Behind the scenes, our treasury dept is pumping it full of steriods, trying to resuscitate the patient. ????
Al:
IF you are looking to get out of the lab and into another pharma job, I have a much better alternative for you…
I suggest that you move your career into Project Management. These are the people in the research/development field that deal with the timelines/budgets for developing drugs. There is a tremendous need for people to accurately develop realistic timelines to bring drugs out of the lab into humans and human trials to FDA approvals.
If I were you, I would take an intro class for Micorsoft Project and then take a Professional Project Management course and have your employer pay. Once you get the first job in PM then start your MBA if needed.
I will say that you will always have a job as most of the PM in my company are PhD’s. They are liked b/c of the analytical training. It will be easy to find another job, just read the job postings on biospace.com.
This is the way to go, trust me….
#64
That’s not a bad option either, if you can handle that kind of work. I’m not crazy about project mgmt, but for those who can do happily do the job, it seems to be a good option.
It also provides a means for transitioning to a new industry as well, should PM positions start to dry up in biotech/pharma.
# 63,
Of course, it could be worth making an offer for 1,000 shares at say $4. One might find someone willing to bite, one may not, but I have had luck with in the past, instead of just putting in a buy order “at market.” If the stock goes down, it will still take a pretty decent percentage drop to get to where you bought and if it stays stedy or goes up at all, you make a bit. If the company implodes, all you are out is $4m plus commission. No doubt, it is a gamble, and not so much an investment, but if the $ loss will not hurt you….
Can anyone with MLS access look up the address for 809000? It’s supposedly a 2-BR condo or townhouse in New Brunswick. Thanks!
shore [66],
It’s an option with no expiration date. At least you know your downside.
Grim,
What happened to Hudson County data?
Kettle,
A good example is the petrodollar. Many of the OPEC nations would love to drop the petrodollar and go to another currency. But, what other currencies are suitable?
I don’t think they have to make a choice right away for short period of time(historically) they can flee to GOLD.
I can see the Barrell trading at .10 ounces of gold until the dust settles.
How does the DOW value according to gold now? It was twenty ounces of GOLD in January last year and it’s roughly 14.3 ounces of gold today.
I forsee that by years end I will be able to buy the WHOLE DOW with 8-10 ounces of GOLD.
Forget nominal terms and year to date interest declines and start thinking in real terms.
That’s why I give Ron Paul money. By the time this president is finishing with her first term the dollar and DOW will be devastated and sad part is that they won’t know how to fix it!
“It was twenty ounces of GOLD in January last year and it’s roughly 14.3 ounces of gold today.”
make [70],
Go back to 2001 and look at the ratio.
This question is for Bi,
Do you see Bank of America making a $2 Billion write down anytime soon?
rememeber they can always purchase CFC at $18 dollars a share and assume a peace of the company.
hell, at $18 per share Mozzillo would sell them th ewhole thing.
I said it in Sept that it was a foold gold on BoA to think that they can outsmart Mozillo.
proof is in the pudding.
Does anyone know where this is?
The owners of an industrial property near the Edison Train Station plan to take the unusual step of asking the public what they ought to build.
Using the findings of the Edison Smart Growth Initiative as a framework, Intercap Holdings, a Princeton-based developer, will hold a series of public meetings regarding the future of their property.
http://www.thnt.com/apps/pbcs.dll/article?AID=/20080109/NEWS010204/801090477/1001
My wife and I put in a low ball offer and our realtor told us that we might “insult” the Sellers. Turns out we did. Turns out, I don’t care. I’m not about to pay close to asking while the market is falling and credit is tighter. There is a lot of inventory out there and not many people ready to buy.
#68
In essence, yes. I would not advocate making such moves a major part of one’s retirement investment strategy. That said, as long as one goes in assuming that there is a good chance to walk away with nothing…. The other thing is that with the bad news that is out there, I suspect that of all the shareholders it is not impossible to find someone willing to sell at a significant discount just to be rid of it.
#74 jam; Tell your Realtor you are insulted by the sellers asking price.
I did, but its not about a pissing contest. I made the offer, they can take it or leave it. so they left it. Next!
Remember the old trading maxim:
Price follows volume…
Go back to 2001 and look at the ratio.
BC,
I know, 2002-2007 was supposed to be a huge BULL market and the DOW kicked ass.LOL
74 jam
Good for you! Hey, you tried, right? Good luck to them! How much less did you offer versus their current asking price BTW?
I have a theory, I could totally be wrong, that super lowballs (15% or more) have little chance of being accepted. Most sellers have to get to the realistic price themselves, at least somewhat.
Here is a charming fixer upper in Belmar. Only 2.4M, it’s only been vacant for 5+ years.
http://cnj.craigslist.org/rfs/532629337.html
BC,
I can’t thank you enough for your foresight into persuading me to look into non-dollar denominated assets as part of my portfolio.
I have recently moved all my US dollar holdings as all of my US Dollar CD’s have expired.
Swiss Francs and Gold baby. I have a custodial account for my daughter with a couple of dollars she earned for birth, eid, birthday’s and New years from family and friends and I closed that and bought GLD.
It doesn’t make sense to stare at the beach when you know a tsunamy is coming.
Even Mozillo said that there has never been a soft landing in housing.
There is no such thing as a soft landing tsunamy.
jam [77],
Well Done.
“2010 Buyer Says:
January 9th, 2008 at 11:00 am
Grim,
What happened to Hudson County data?”
What happens in Hudson County STAYS in Hudson County!
From the AP:
MBIA to Post $737 Million in Losses
Bond insurer MBIA Inc. said Wednesday it will take a $3.3 billion writedown, cut its dividend and sell $1 billion in new debt as a way to maintain its crucial credit rating.
MBIA, which has been warned by ratings agencies it must raise capital or face a downgrade, also said it will take $737 million in losses and related expenses for the fourth quarter.
MBIA will take a pretax writedown of about $3.3 billion on the value of its debt holdings, including collateralized debt obligations. CDOs are complex financial instruments that combine slices of debt, including mortgages.
Barbara Corcoran on CNBC - ‘this housing crisis is nothing ‘ after another commentator mentioned that most people could not afford to buy the home they are currently living in.
Editorial - She looks like she is on the other team
From Bloomberg:
Countrywide Says Foreclosures, Overdue Loans Rise
Countrywide Financial Corp., the biggest U.S. mortgage lender, fell in New York trading to the lowest since 1996 as foreclosures and late payments last month were the highest in more than five years.
Foreclosures doubled to 1.44 percent of unpaid principal in December from 0.7 percent a year earlier at the company’s unit that handles billing and processing, Countrywide said in a statement today. Late payments advanced to 7.2 percent of unpaid balances from 4.6 percent.
Countrywide fell 7.7 percent today after losing more than a quarter of its market value yesterday, when the company denied speculation it will file for bankruptcy. Declining home sales and rising defaults pushed Countrywide down 79 percent last year, and Chief Executive Officer Angelo Mozilo has called the housing market the worst since the Great Depression.
“It appears that the housing trends in 2008 will look a lot like 2007, so Countrywide will remain under a lot of stress,” said Tom Atteberry, a money manager in Los Angeles at First Pacific Advisors LLC, in an interview yesterday. “What they are left with is a pretty low-margin business.”
In regards to CFC, get you calculator out and see if you can buy a 40% bond and hedge it with an option that assigns a bankrupt price to CFC.
With regards to breaking into upper management and being a decision maker. It is a club. Your MBA from the right school helps, but you need to network, join the right trade organizations, do some speaking engagement to get recognized in your indusry, get elected to some boards etc. Also prior work at a top tier consulting company helps. That with the MBA will get you there. Also being googleable as an industry thought leader in your field is important. Your linkin bio needs to show all these stuff for senior management to pay attention. Also learn how the inards of the company works, Corp Gov, FR, IT, M&A. Marketing, Ops, you can’t just be a chemist and be CEO you gotta know at least a little about a lot and a lot about your field of expertise.
Theres money in them there REO’s
JB, don’t know if you had posted this little Bergan County gem
89 Hillman Ave
Glen Rock
Feb 06 SP 562,000
Dec 07 SP 350,000
38% loss.
#86 mr. potter this housing crisis is nothing
What was her point, there is no housing crisis?
Painhrtz,
I did not work for GSK. I think you made a right choice of going to regulatory side which has stil some potential in NJ
Make,
I am curious, how would moving to petro gold work in your scenario. I would guess that this is one of those deadman choices, going to petrgold could devastate various national currencies and we are back where the il producers do not want to be. If say the US market gets wacked due to a move to petro gold, then US oil prices would skyrocket. At that point its in the US’ best interest to move off of oil as much as possible. This scenario was explored by OPEC in the 90’s I believe and they came to the conclusion that sustained prices over $100 would cause the US to develop alternative energy sources at industrial scales in 5-10 years and hence sustained spikes in oil prices should be avoided.
Re 87:
Another reason to stay away from CFC. No white knight is going to come in and buy up a bunch of foreclosure lawsuits and writedowns. They’ll just wait until they go Chapt 11 and slice and dice.
Jam, #77,
They will come back to u after 1-2 month because nobody will give close to asking price offer.
Jam, #77,
They will come back to u after 1-2 months because nobody will give close to asking price offer.
make,
I dont disagree with the general idea of a financial hurricane on the horizon. and i used to totally agree with your current view, but as i have look a little deeper i have shifted away from a dollar dump scenario and more to a “race to the bottom” scenario where no one gets dumped due to blowback, but instead everyone races to the bottom through either deflation or inflation depending on the country and their economic condition. By the way i personally agree with your hedging and have taken a few similar steps myself
CFC 52-Week Low
4.43
(01/09/08)
Yahoo syas you do not need an MBA, of course they also print articles by the Rich Dad guy and Ben Stein:
http://hotjobs.yahoo.com/career-articles-five_hot_business_careers_no_mba_needed-276
Regarding oil…
from CNBC
OPEC’s ability to tame oil prices that hit a record high above $100 a barrel last week is curbed by limited unused production capacity, officials from the exporter group and analysts say.
The Organization of the Petroleum Exporting Countries says it holds around 3 million barrels per day of production in reserve. Since many members have expressed unease with record prices, that begs the question: why are they not raising output?
http://tinyurl.com/338×2j
Of course you don’t need an MBA. But lets say I have two twentysomethings working for me. Both do equally good jobs at work. One goes home and plays the WI, IMs his friends and lays on couch watching TV. Worker two goes home and goes to school to learn about business and spends saturdays in library working on projects and studying business related topics. Both jobs do nor require an MBA. Who am I to take more serious? Who appears to me to be more career focuses? Who do I fee is ready for next promotion cuase they can do their day job and an MBA so I know they can handle much more. So the boss is more likely to promote the MBA student. Plus the firm paid for MBA so in order to avoid flight risk they promote, give extra bonus or raise to the worker who just completed an MBA. Most Firms that offer MBA find their is a small percentage who actually go and get one.
In reality someone who just does thier job at work in today’s age is not a team player. Management starts to feel if he/she does not care about his career why should I.
[80]. Just around 10%. That’s the number every article states to be approporiate and in this market, I honestly believe it was a good price point. My wife and I have been looking for some time and the prices this year are higher than last year, even with the down turn. I believe prices should be lower than the last few years. Not back to 2000, but 2001/2002 seems appropriate.
Kettle,
Here’s a qoute from Peter Schiff in a newsletter he sent to his clients last friday.(01/04/08)
“Finally, Wall Street takes solace in the fact that long-term interest rates on U.S. Treasuries apparently reflect a benign outlook for future inflation as well. However, today’s high bond prices are more a function short-term bets being placed by leveraged speculators and central bank buying, not the rational expectations of long-term private investors. Rather than reflecting quiescent inflation, low long-term interest rates result from a bubble in the bond market. When it bursts, the true rate of inflation, as reflected in the relentless run up in gold prices, will finally be priced in.”
when this happens, please look out for Double digit long term rates. It’s inevitable.
Agree?
Kettle,
Because they can’t!!!
Resources for people facing foreclosure:
http://www.federalreserve.gov/pubs/foreclosure/default.htm
[80]. Just around 10%. That’s the number every article states to be approporiate and in this market
jam,
remember 18 months ago they said that RE never goes down. don’t you think 10% is a shift in th eright direction. It’s only a shift. Trust you gut only after getting all the info.
#102 jam:My wife and I have been looking for some time and the prices this year are higher than last year, even with the down turn….
Are you saying the sellers asking prices are higher than last year?
make 102
I agree that that is a very real possibility,it will be interesting if M1 and M2 continue to support deflation or if they shift towards inflation
OT but claims of vote fraud are already starting in NH after the primary results were released….. on both the democratic and republican side.
Oh and guess who’s doing the vote counting??? Anybody remember a company named diebold!
Any one with MLS access may I have the addresses and DOM for the following homes
2463239 and 2444470
Thanks in advance
jam,
I’ve found, and from a lot of the data on here you’ll see it too, that prices seem to be hovering around 2004, right now at least. But you’re right, the best thing to do is make a reasonable offer that you believe in. 10% isn’t that bad, but maybe they were already priced around 2004, which makes sense that they didn’t accept it (right now)?
Fire Isiah…
http://www.firstcousinsmusic.com/
Jam,
Just waiting about two weeks and the seller will come back to you wanting to negotiate. I placed close to 10 lowball offers 10-20% below asking. 2 responded right away; 4 took two weeks; 2 took a month. The other 2 did not respond and are still on the market.
I can almost guarantee a response in a couple weeks.
2463239 Dover Town
71 Baker Avenue
$339,500
DOM 51
2444470 Wayne Twp.
1172 ALPS RD
$335,000
DOM 118
OMG John,
GG season finally is tonight. I guess I am going to have to watch it on the web since I will be busy. Please don’t spoil it for me:)
Chifi:
Akbar is a restaurant attached to a Holiday Inn Express. It is just past the old Ford plant (or what’s left of it) on the South Bound side of US 1.
Wendy Says:
January 9th, 2008 at 10:04 am
Anybody interesting to buy in short hills? I got good two good deals and have to give up one. Listing price 995k and accepted price is 900k(OLP was 1129K).
I am willing to put in a formal offer @ 500k.
awesome thanks Sybarite
How about 350K all cash deal.
Al says- Excectutive program is for people with quite a bit more job experience than what I have, and generally for professionals in middle manager position already.
Not necessarily, they also like people from different backgrounds so having a chemistry guy with a phd is a commodity to the classroom.
A good deal on RE!!! Is it the year 2012 already!!!
JMAC #67-
I took a look into your ML#809000.
Address is 10 I Neilson St, New Brunswick. I don’t know the name of that complex, but it’s right on Rt 18, near the river. Probably filled with college kids renting.
This one is a 2 bed, 1.5 bath. Realtor says 3-level, but she’s counting the basement. Taxes are $3440 and Maintenance is $180 per month (no pool). It has been on market since 11/07 and asking price is $255K.
The most recent sale was another 2 bed unit for $239K in 4/06.
Way to price it right!
Chemistry guy is great in a Wall St. program, those traders will need a lot of drugs to make it through 2008.
BTW how much does a chemistry phd in NJ make? I have no clue.
#124
Probably not as much as a BA Finance major.
Foreclosures strain condo buildings
South Florida’s many condo buildings began to suffer from hundreds of foreclosures – and it may get worse in 2008.
I love this quote…
Fornet said. “This is Manhattan, it’s the future Manhattan, so we’re all sitting real good.”
http://www.miamiherald.com/business/story/372092.html
Chifi:
I also made a double on Tyco. I saw the value in all of it’s parts. Enron, I stayed way away from ;)
A little late…..
S&P ADOPTS DEFENSIVE VIEW
01/09/2008 12:24pm
SAM STOVALL, Standard & Poor’s, New York: Standard & Poor’s Equity Strategy Group (ESG) embraced a more defensive view of the market today by upgrading the traditionally defensive sectors and downgrading the traditionally discretionary/cyclical sectors. Specifically, we upgraded Consumer Staples, Health Care, Energy and Utilities to overweight from marketweight; downgraded Information Technology to underweight from overweight; and downgraded Industrials to underweight from marketweight. See S&P Research Notes for more information.
Well I am back for a few minutes - thank you everybody for very informative and insightful replies, I got more information than I hoped for :) I need some mroe time to read through it al again.
TO answer John’s question -I think chemistry PhD at the beginning of their career - starts at 70K-100K. It is greatly depends on size of the Company, Type of Job, Location in NJ as well. Around Princeton they make a bit more - I do not know why. Also start-ups usually pay a bit less - but offer stock options.
Spread is pretty big.
Usually after a few years is you are good and not happy with your salary you start looking for another position…
Hi all,
Please correct me if I am wrong. I started looking at Bridgewater area (08807) early 2007. Seems to me that the reason of less sales is that there is NOT much home for sales in this area, especially starting December 2007. Almost no house for sales. I think the Pharm companies do help the house price steady here.
007
# 126 “”This is Manhattan, it’s the future Manhattan, so we’re all sitting real good.”"
He never said WHICH Manhattan; maybe he meant Manhattan, Kansas.
What do you gyus think about Caffe India in Morristown?
I enjoy it.
And their $20 dinner special feeds me and the wife for two days.
SHORE GUY 131
Maybe he meant that with glaciers melting at unexpected rates, that they would be an island due to sea level rise
133
Maybe the new Venice?
I thought London was going to be the future Manhattan.
I thought we were kicking around Harrison for the next get together?
KL
TIme to buckle up if you are long real estate. Its going to get much worse before it gets better.
Countrywide reports that Prime(not to be confused with subprime) mortgage deliquencies are up 6.9%.
Conclusion: People with good credit lied about their income,got inflated appraisals which led to a mortgage that is not sustainable.
“kettle1 Says:
January 9th, 2008 at 12:35 pm
Oh and guess who’s doing the vote counting??? Anybody remember a company named diebold!”
uh oh.
Diebold, yup. Hillary’s ascension to the throne is preordained.
Conclusion: People with good credit lied about their income,got inflated appraisals which led to a mortgage that is not sustainable.
like that Hynday commecial “DUH”
Conclusion #2: Not even people with good credit want to make negative return payments, and they expect returns to stay negative longer than credit damage will hurt.
Basically, the hit on assets is expected to be more painful that the credit damage.
You can never get the money back. You can repair your credit.
i wonder how much a presidential election costs?? do you think diebold would give me a quote, i always wanted to be the president.
Mike NJ #14,
I agree with what you wrote, and I like the positive spirit.
FYI – I used to work in big pharma. I was in the business operations side, not the science side. Got my company to pay for most grad school costs. I did an MS in Real Estate from NYU, where I learned a lot and built up a global network of contacts. Then I bolted big pharma. Currently I work in real estate investment.
Although a brand name MBA would help, I don’t believe it is essential for somebody aiming to flip from pharma into investments. Direct industry experience and existing advances degrees should be enough to open some doors.
I recommend targeting smaller investment shops. They have open minds about hiring and aren’t weighed down by stupid HR bureaucracies that screen out many of the best candidates.
For chemists hoping to stay in their field and make big bucks in NJ – good luck. The opening of China, India, and Eastern Europe has resulted in a dramatic surge of qualified scientists into the global labor market. This surplus of labor is growing will continue to suppress scientists’ wages.
142
I think the diebold ceo was a bush “ranger”, no?
I’m telling you folks, there’s going to be some crap coming down the pike during the course of the next year that will curl your nose-hairs. You can hardly imagine.
Plunge Protection Team Is Real:
http://www.minyanville.com/articles/Bernanke-Paulson-Fed/index/a/15471
So, the sellers are “insulted” that they’re getting lowball bids despite the fact that sales are abysmal and inventory is high and about to get much higher in the coming weeks. What does it say about the majority of sellers when the days on market approach 250 and they haven’t had an offer? What does it say about a seller when they reluctantly lower their overpriced, p*ss smelling, dank reeking, pile of sh*t from $649,000 to $644,900 and think they’re giving their dump away? Nobody told them to do a cash out refi and go out and buy an Escalade and then expect to retire or move up to a better house that they’ll subsequently turn into an eyesore while sitting their fat @ss on their ugly, dog hair infested couch eating doritos watching Deal or No Deal.
This is probably the same seller who would fall for an academy award winning performance by a wheeping, ivory tower charlatan posing as a Presidential candidate. This is probably the same seller who thinks Olive Garden is an Italian restaurant or would pay $1,500 for a pair of Hannah Montana tickets. Insulted? Sellers, I got news for you; when your sitting there stunned that your 20% underwater with no offers, you’ll be praying to be insulted.
Jim,
Can you repost the Case-Shiller graph for me?
(soon, if you can)
Thanks,
sl
not to sound like a doomsdayer, but when you look at housing markets being wrecked, financial markets may be deadmen walking, and energy supply/demand curves possibly reversing; things do not look to rosey
[147] Love the response.
149 kettle
I’m as pessimistic as I’ve been, and the stuff I’m hearing in the last few days is completely nuts.
Nj patient,
You are in law correct? hearing stuff at work or by reading market news???
Overheard at family holiday gathering:
Family friend lives in Bergen, thinking of selling for $600,000 since that’s what neighbors got last year and that’s what his house is worth. Uncle who lives in Westchester and traded down for a condo replies that a house is only worth what the market will bear, and if nobody can qualify for a mortgage to cover the $600,000 price, it doesn’t matter what it’s worth. That got heated very quickly.
Also overheard: Family friend and husband live in new townhouse in Morris, bought in 05. Every other unit is for sale thanks to young couples who overbought. When two incomes are needed for the mortgage, and mom wants to stay home after a baby or two, suddenly reality slaps you in the face.
sl,
This one?
http://njrereport.com/images/spcsnytier.gif
.. how bout the Case-Shiller Housing Index graph–
(can you email the link to Heather H., too?)
sl
“This is probably the same seller who thinks Olive Garden is an Italian restaurant”
Gary [147],
You saying it’s not an Italian Rest.?
And Thanks!! (almost forgot my manners..) I’m at work — so a bit rushed, sorry!!
:-)
sl
Do I buy now to “lock” the current $417k or should i just wait & see how much more I can get from ‘08/’09 distressed sellers if either $521k or $560k are approved?
http://www.navytimes.com/news/2007/12/military_veterans_homeloans_071214w/
http://thomas.loc.gov/cgi-bin/query/z?c110:H.R.4539:
kettle [149],
Take a look at a S&P chart. It rivals JB’s. The technicals are abysmal[just an observation]. In addition to this, the yen/euro cross is flashing caution signals.
That said, deadman walking is a great analogy.
gary (147)-
Your rants are oddly inspirational.
Plunge Protection Team Is Real
With all these short-term fixes being attempted by Bernanke and crew, I assumed they were hoping to stave off a downturn until the fall and then blame it on the election. At the very least you’d have to make it to the summer, right?
Two minutes into Kudlow’s show and I was proved wrong.
And I learned that every candidate is anti-capitalist.
Guys: interesting conversation. i was HEAVILY thinking about leaving wall st to work in pharma (doing data analysis).
i know the payscale is less, and i have a pretty stable job on wall st, but the lifestyle isn’t for me, nor the stress.
can anyone comment on pharma it/data jobs and if its a good “trade” or not?
i live in northern nj & have just about had it with nj transit.
question for the group:
if CFC goes into bankruptcy, does that mean anything will change or get screwed up on my fixed 30 year mortgage with them?
To njguy Says:
Guys: interesting conversation. i was HEAVILY thinking about leaving wall st to work in pharma (doing data analysis).
Just so you know
My company jus outsourced ALL of our IT to india. Even the help desk is in India right now. . Now we have 4 IT people!!! total in US who just come and fix our hardware and install new programms if we need them.
Of couse PPT is real, but PPT is the nick name. When the market takes a insane free fall and there are super high volume days like last aug they call all around before the open to see what the mkt is going to do. Once they were so desparate they even called me!
Al: is this help desk IT, or the entire firm’s IT? I take you work in the pharmaceutical space?
njguy: Most pharma IT jobs are country clubs compared to Wall St. Even if you’re running an essential server or system, a 5 minute outage won’t cause traders to start screaming at you for the millions they could lose.
On the flip side, most big pharmas are outsourcing core IT functions such as server administration, networking, database administration, etc. to outsourcing providers or to India. Your best bet might be with a small company or with a company like EDS who specializes in providing IT services.
if CFC goes into bankruptcy, does that mean anything will change or get screwed up on my fixed 30 year mortgage with them?
Not likely, the worst case is you might be moved to a different servicer.
CIO - Chief Indian Officer
NJguy
Take this with a pound of salt….
I would generally recommend against pharma jobs in NJ. There are those on this board that disagree with me, but pharma in NJ is in its twilight years at best. For a number of factors which comprise an entire discussion in their own right, pharma has and is moving else where in the US ( NC, MA, CA). And in the intermediate future a significant portion of the pharma industry may be headed into india, southeast asia, and eastern europe.
I have been in pharma for a number of years and am currently looking to get out. There may be attractive opportunities available, but i would suggest that they are far and few.
between.
Keep in mind that i am an engineer and my expectations and experiences may not apply to you. For further opinions, look at Al’s posts above about being a PhD chemist in NJ pharma
I know the concensus is to stay away from CFC. However, is there anyone who took a position on it this week.
Long? Short?
I know I’ll probably be abused here if they implode but I bought 5,000 shares today.
I have a hunch of a fed bailout in process.
The infrastructure stocks are getting killed today. JEC, FLR, CBI, nasty, nasty free-fall.
I have a hunch of a fed bailout in process.
Do they fall into the too-big-to-fail category?
Back in the 1970s Franklin National Bank went bankrupt, at the time the largest bank to go under and they had a boatload of mortgages. My Mom’s mortgage was assigned to Citigroup by the FDIC and to her nothing changed. Interesting enough ALL OF US owe Franklin National who got in over their heads a huge debt. They pretty much invented the Bank credit card, the ATM and the drive through bank. The Franklin Bank’s ATM in Rockville Centre Long Island was the first ATM ever. They were the countrywide of their time!!!
#173
“at the time the largest bank to go under and they had a boatload of mortgages.”
But were they the largest mortgage company in the nation?
151 njpatient:
Come on, spill the beans! I think you’ll find a sympathetic audience here.
kettle1:
Thanks for the insight. I feel that there is pressure for them to move out because of the high cost base in NJ. But it seems like the industry is under a lot of pressure in general.
I was thinking about moving into marketing science or doing data type of work as opposed to chemistry related stuff… more administrative. I figured those jobs would be around for a bit.
Thanks much for your insight though!
make [170],
They have been pumping Countryslide.
“As the Wall Street Journal reported Monday, Countrywide has increasingly relied on the FHLB system for cash flow as the mortgage market downturn continues to batter one of the industry’s top peddlers of high-risk home loans. While other banks have also increasingly relied on the FHLB system, none have done so with more haste than Countrywide. Through the first three quarters of this year, Countrywide’s advances from the Atlanta-based FHLB bank had soared 81 percent, to a total of $51 billion. That represents nearly 40 percent of FHLB Atlanta’s total advances, according to the bank’s latest SEC filing—a potentially dangerous level of exposure considering Countrywide’s track record in poor underwriting and predatory lending practices in recent years.”
http://www.senate.gov/~schumer/SchumerWebsite/pressroom/record.cfm?id=287914
From cbsmarketwatch, on the question of what would happen if CFC goes under:
http://www.marketwatch.com/news/story/mortgage-lenders-bankruptcy-would-have/story.aspx?guid=%7B3AAE96F2%2D8397%2D4334%2D87D8%2D90813CCFFF0E%7D&dist=TQP_Mod_pressN
Here’s another chart similar to JB’s.
http://www.restaurant.org/pressroom/pressrelease.cfm?ID=1539
Bc,
that’s a Nov 26th article on CountySlide
Is there anyone else on this board willing to admit that they hold a position on CFC?
re: nuts, it is an election year right?
How is this for nuts?
PPT won’t be needed if Bernake gets his secret discount window off the ground, the money supply spigots will be wide open.
With the discontinuance of the M3 monetary aggregate and nothing to really track the ebbs and flows of newer forms of money that have been manufactured on Wall Street and in other global banking sectors, there is really only one way folks and that is Up, Up and Away.
I’m surprised that entrepreneurship never comes up as part of the career discussions that pop up here from time to time.
Al,
Find yourself a geneticist and get to work coming up with a GM macroalgae that has a high enough oil yield to be suitable for chemical extraction and conversion into biodiesel.
Or just concoct a snake-oil weight loss or male “enhancement” pill.
Entire IT department….
AL what Company??
Sean,
There are private groups who still do M3 calculations…..
I’m surprised that entrepreneurship never comes up as part of the career discussions that pop up here from time to time.
I agree, there is obviously a lot of talent and decent money on this discussion board. Why not have a new business idea and business plan(preferably RE related) competiton and the winner will get funding and partners.
It would be interesting and I for one would be interested.
make [180],
Yes, I am aware of this. How much more has been advanced since then? Taxpayers on the hook again.
AL newah mind got it :(
BC
Yes, I am aware of this. How much more has been advanced since then? Taxpayers on the hook again.
I agree my man, it sucks being a tax payer but why not make a couple dollars on this?
#186
Me too. I know some molecular bio, if that helps. No private lab space though. Lab space and equipment is usually quite pricey…
make,
I’ve traded business plans and ideas with a number of readers in the past. Plenty of folks here seem to have at least an inkling of entrepreneurial spirit.
I bought it at $4.55 and it’s at $5.00 now.
that’s 10%? not bad huh?
Al,
Find yourself a geneticist and get to work coming up with a GM macroalgae that has a high enough oil yield to be suitable for chemical extraction and conversion into biodiesel.
Or just concoct a snake-oil weight loss or male “enhancement” pill.
First part - it is being worked on for a while now - I know of at least couple of companies.
On the second notice - funny you should mention Enhancement pills in the same post as biodiesel - thats excactly what I feel about biodiesel in it’s current incarnation.
About your own entrepreneurial spirit: I’d love to start my own company - If I would have few millions to spare….
hey Biochemical engieer at your service, iam always up for a good challenge.
Actually i have been thinking about the whole algae biodiesel angle. there could be some opportunity in NYC. consider putting an algae operation into an industrial building in the city, you should have ready access to raw materials and potential customers.
Complex idea, very short description…..
170 kettle
Re direction of pharma in NJ. I can see manufacturing moving for sure overseas with basic R&D basically being “outsourced” to biotechs and universities, leaving big pharma as development and marketing entities via licensing. As far as development and marketing, I see that staying here in NJ for a while.
I wouldn’t advise anyone I liked to go into science at all. Engineering seems better though it sounds like from your experience, not so much.
Keep in mind that i am an engineer and my expectations and experiences may not apply to you. For further opinions, look at Al’s posts above about being a PhD chemist in NJ pharma
197 Ooops skip last paragraph, I copied your comment to respond to it.
Ann
the engineering outlook is about the same of the PhD chemistry outlook :(
very few engineers do engineering anymore….
153 jmac
Re townhouses for sale after mom stays home with baby, where are those couples going to go? A condo? Or I guess an apartment?
Grim #192,
Mind sharing some of the real estate investment ideas people have come up with?
199 kettle
That’s what I thought but I wasn’t sure. I hope my kids have the sense to stay away from science entirely.
One of the main issues with science and engineering is that companies no consider these people “value added” assets. Instead they are just cost centers who are better outsourced or off shored.
Ann the downfall of science and engineering will be the downfall of the US just as it was one of the main drivers of the rise of the US.
One of the turning points was when the law was changed so that universities could patent their research. After that corporations decided it was cheaper to use universities as their R&D groups then actually pay people to do it.
Of course globalization has played a factor as well. When you are the richest country in the world equalization means you have no where to go but down :(
147 gary
love the rant.
Have to correct it on something though. It’s not just the people who refinanced or drive around in Escalades or spend 1500 to see Hannah Montana that are stubborn and unrealistic about reducing the prices on their “overpriced, p*ss smelling, dank reeking, pile of sh*t.”
It’s also old people who are already in assisted living, retirees who should have sold two years ago, buyer uppers in their 40s who bought in 97, people who have already relocated. Stubbornness and greed and stupidity know no bounds. Even the dead won’t price properly.
203 kettle
I agree. It makes sense from a business perspective to outsource basic science. Basic science is a high risk investment. Why not just license compounds from biotechs/universities? Of course, science in America has been completely sabotaged for many other reasons too, including the influx of immigrants willing to work for cheaper.
Ann
My guess is out of state. If they’re staying in NJ, I would guess they would move in with one set of parents, to a rental, or to someplace smaller and further away from the city.
Ann [205],
“Even the dead won’t price properly.”
LOL! That is classic.
139 “Diebold, yup. Hillary’s ascension to the throne is preordained.”
As tied to the Bush family and the Republican Party Diebold is, I think that if Diebold loves Hillary it is braised with a bernase sauce and a nice oaky white wine.
#206
Because then “R” departments are slashed. I loved science as a kid and teenager, and thought it would be a prestigious and lucrative industry.
Boy was I wrong…but I still enjoy science and the thought processes needed for it. It’s a shame our country is getting less and less scientific.
Actually saw a really cool vertical growth planar reactor for algae growth, it was to be used as a carbon scrubber for coal plants, secondary biproduct was to be biodiesel. Unfortunately, last I heard the company was under severe financial constraint. I have been trying to find a way to out license university research to be both productive and profitable. At the very least to be facillitator to the process. It is lot more difficult than you think even with a science and regulatory background. Hopefully within the next five years.
Re:
opinions on engineering - not worth pursuing -
is that all types of engineering, or just chemical?
Poole’s list of five key mistakes:
Borrowers took on mortgages they could not afford.
Mortgage brokers put too many people in unsuitable mortgages. They knew, for instance, that adjustable-rate mortgages probably wouldn’t be right for many borrowers if interest rates rose as the market expected.
Investment banks jeopardized their reputations by securitizing mortgages without doing due diligence on the underlying assets, many of which were based on “inadequate or spurious information.”
Rating agencies put their stamp of approval on securitized mortgages without considering whether AAA ratings could be maintained if house prices fell.
Investors scooped up those securities without doing adequate analysis first. “Investors too readily accepted the AAA ratings at face value,” Poole said. “A reach for yield with inadequate attention to risk in another basic lesson that apparently cannot be relearned often enough.
Regarding encouraging kids to study science: I wouldn’t necessarily discourage science study per se, but I would try to steer them towards something which holds potential. In other words, study science in pursuit of a marketing degree, for example.
(151) njpatient,
Care to elaborate? Just a little bit?
Re townhouses for sale after mom stays home with baby, where are those couples going to go? A condo? Or I guess an apartment?
If they had a condo they would have a baby!
Bottom line an engineer or a scientist to the Senior Management Team is no different that a clerk or a factory worker. They don’t fully understand what you do and don’t care to know. My brother in law and niece are engineers and it might as well be chinese to me. GM lost its way in the 70s to 90s and dissed the importance of engineering and almost went bankrupt. Now they are rising from the dead on R&D and engineering. However a lot of companies like IBM for instance who hired the head of RJR to be their CEO at one point and he admitted publicly he did not even own a computer or know how to use one felt, who cares how the product is made it is all about profit and sales. That is why ladies in short skirts giving out free lunches and samples at the doctors offices get paid more per year than a PhD at Pfizer.
That is why ladies in short skirts giving out free lunches and samples at the doctors offices get paid more per year than a PhD at Pfizer.
You ain’t kidding.
I would highly discourge anyone, particularly a daughter from Engineering. My niece just graduated an ivy league school and could not get a job in the NY region and is moving out of state. Her parents are losing her for good. Plus she works with a bunch of geeks in some out of state dumpy location. Salary is high to start but then flat lines around 30. A lot of her friends did teaching and work 9-3pm in the suburbs and have plenty of time to attend the right parties and events to land a Ibanker or trader. When she is 30 and living in Pittsburg working in the lab her friends will be at the country club in their BMWs on their summers off. My brother in law is an engineer and he had to meet his wife on match.com cause their are all guys at work, she is a little kooky and moans and moans that she can’t stay home with her infant cause as an engineer he can’t support his family, his mother in law has to baby sit for free on his engineering salay. Meanwhile guys his age on wall street make 4x his income.
Entire IT operations of many companies have been outsourced to outsourcing firms, some onshore, some offshore, some a mix of both. The jobs that tend to go in the companies I am familiar with are mostly operational, including the application development tasks that can be called operational. The move creates many new positions in the US, primarily project management, customer relationship management and outsourcing governance type positions. Sometimes architecture and tech strategy stays in-house too.
If one wishes to remain in IT operations, your best bet is EDS, IBM, Accenture, etc. But they pay sh1t and work you to the ground.
210 and 214 sybarite
If my kids really love science, I won’t discourage them, but I won’t encourage it, and I will encourage other fields like you said.
It is sad. Science is awesome. Even on a basic level, an entire country of scientifically-illiterate morons is a scary thought. Oh wait…
220 Ann,
What do we need science for? It is all explained in the beginning of the Bible. You don’t even have to read the last 95%, that’s all fluff!
217…sales and marketing are completely different occupations grim…
As someone who works for one of the largest BPOs in the world…
…We’re comin’ for ya.
I would discourage both sons and daughters from science and engineering.
Downsides for both girls and guys, like you mentioned.
hey I wish I could have parlayed research into a lucrative career. I just found another avenue to use the analytical skills I had developed. I definately would discourage a career in science but think a good science based education can only help. If the current population of sheep had been a little more analytical and assessed the situation they were getting into more closely Grim would probably be running a business development blog and not the ongoing housing trainwreck blog.
“…..attend the right parties and events to land a banker or trader….” Wow, lucky girls….Your post was interesting John…though I would say incredibly cynical and somewhat pathetic. Sorry man. Just calling it as I see it.
#225 — naw painhrtz……….everyone loves a trainwreck.
221 RayC
Right on. All we need is the Bible and shopping and the American way of life will continue! Oh yeah, and lots of oil.
Ann don’t forget reality TV
229
Yes. Reality TV. Can’t forget that.
And Britney. She’s a growth industry right there. Maybe we should tell our kids to be gossip writers.
From yesterdays’ UK Telegraph:
http://www.telegraph.co.uk/money/main.jhtml?xml=/money/2008/01/07/bcnuseco107.xml
NJ GUY (#162, 177)
Interesting, looks like only jobs left are Finance, Retail, Healthcare, and Government. Healthcare & Finance will be outsourced, over next decade, leaving Retail & Government. Retail will probably consolidate to Walmart, leaving Walmart & Government. Private Population will probably be outsourced, as they will have no work. Oh well, they say average lifespan of Democracies is 200 years. Maybe Chavez can save the Country, by Nationalizing everything. If nothing else people would get a laugh at Exxon screaming.
#229
Don’t forget GG.
#233
I firmly think Marketing and Regulatory will remain domestic, at least for Pharma/Biotech.
cfc market cap is now $2.95B down from $24B six months ago.
I say Lewis from BoA drops another 3 billion and buys CFC outright. Separates it tin to pieces, sells some platforms and keeps the banking Clienetele and it’s retail business.
by year end CFC stock is back to $20 and I look like a genious.
Any chance?
NJ GUY (#162, 177)
Stay away from big pharma in NJ - they are all laying off workers and outsourcing everything to India and elsewhere. And when you turn 50 - they will do anything (and I mean anything such as bogus performance reviews, etc) to get rid you. (this is because “older workers” have the higher salaries and benefits). And they absolutely don’t want you to get a pension (another thing that is on its way out).
Another thing that is popular is hiring “consultants” to do everything.
Basically every male that I know in their 50s has been laid off once they hit their 50s.
No wonder people want the job security of gov’t jobs.
My dad once told me that in the future the only jobs available would be for people to wrap hamburgers at McDonald’s and the engineers who ran the machines that performed every other task. Apparently in the early 1980s some believed that getting a robot to wrap a hamburger would be too much of a technical challenge.
#236
i’m with you make; except I’m not putting my money where my mouth is, as yet. I’ll live vicariously through your move. ;-)
I jumped ship back in the mid 90s when they moved an Indian PHD into the hood next to me who was making 35k. Two years after I left the plant was shut down.
I did 2yr school and moved into IT. One of the cooler ‘escapes’ I have seen was a really smart young woman that got into patent law.
A constant reader of the blog here. I appreciate all the insights here and rarely have any insights to add.
But the OT note on chemistry hits a cord–I too began with a chemistry background, a simple Chemistry BA pulled in $36,000 my first year as an associate chemist in Boston in 1999. And this was working for Big Pharma right after a name-brand undergrad. I got out after two years, and went to law school.
For all that, I wouldn’t trade my biochem degree for the world. That basic appreciation of “how stuffs work” and rigorous problem sets kind of shapes you forever–you can’t BS your way out of a lab report or calculus question. A hardcore science career requires true calling, and there are still opportunities out there for people who plan to live with it. For those of us lesser mortals who value more mundane desires, there are many other easier skills/paths to a decent life.
———————————————-
On a related note, the wave of out-sourcing also creates opportunities for anyone willing to work in a foreign country, since there is a constant demand to put American overseas to oversee foreign operation, but a small supply of bodies willing to pull-up and leave. Can’t fight globalization–maybe join globalization.
If anyone here is interested in taking the Rutgers/Bloustein Online “Developer’s Toolbox: Housing Market Analysis” course with me, the URL is:
http://policy.rutgers.edu/bocep/courseinfo/dthma.html
The cost of the course is $270, if you are interested you need to hurry up, the course officially begins tonite (although there are no class meetings). Course runs from January 9th to February 16th. The course is being run by Deborah Brett, co-author of:
Real Estate Market Analysis: A Case Study Approach
Duckweed 22000 per annum 1997 out of Stockton. I hung on until 2002 and an MS.
Speaking of globalization my audit schedule for this year includes Singapore, South Africa, Australia and back to China.
I am really curious about the housing market in Aussie land as well as S Africa. Plus I might get to see a lion outside a zoo yeeee!
I bought it at $4.55 and it’s at $5.00 now.
that’s 10%? not bad huh?
I bought 70 feb 5s on yesterday morning for .40 and sold them for 3 times that this morning.
make money Says:
January 9th, 2008 at 3:58 pm
I bought it at $4.55 and it’s at $5.00 now.
that’s 10%? not bad huh?
albani: are you out? Don’t talk about paper gains…..
albani: seriously, stay away from it….if you want to f— around, then pay for a long straddle or strangle…..
pretorius Says:
January 9th, 2008 at 2:12 pm
Mike NJ #14, I recommend targeting smaller investment shops. They have open minds about hiring and aren’t weighed down by stupid HR bureaucracies that screen out many of the best candidates.
pret: WTF does this mean? Best candidates? Huh? I understand the point you are trying to put forth, but you either are going to far with it, or you have a serious chip on your shoulder the size of Hughes….
make money Says:
January 9th, 2008 at 5:17 pm
cfc market cap is now $2.95B down from $24B six months ago. I say Lewis from BoA drops another 3 billion and buys CFC outright. Separates it tin to pieces, sells some platforms and keeps the banking Clienetele and it’s retail business. by year end CFC stock is back to $20 and I look like a genious.
Ever heard of a value trap?
#226 Your post was interesting John…though I would say incredibly cynical and somewhat pathetic.
Meh, there’s no way he actually believes what he posts.
“While financial services employment in the U.S. shrinks, global banks are expanding apace in Asia and elsewhere. JPMorgan and Barclays are the latest examples.”
“Investment banking fees in Asia rose 36 percent last year to a record $11.7 billion, according to Thomson Financial. By comparison, worldwide M&A advisory fees reportedly climbed about 10 percent, while underwriting fees for new stock and bond issues in the U.S. market dropped 1.7 percent.”
http://news.efinancialcareers.com/NEWS_ITEM/newsItemId-12367
CFC could also turn into the next enron… You are right though it is a dangerous play.
Speaking of the decline of pharma in NJ…
300,000 sq ft data center to be built on site of demolished GlaxoSmithKline building.
http://www.gvawilliams.com/x1081.xml
As housing slumps, realtors quit By Patrik Jonsson
Wed Jan 9, 3:00 AM ET
ATLANTA - After three years showing houses in Atlanta’s hilly suburbs, Dee McMahon is finished with real estate.
ADVERTISEMENT
Yanking up her custom-made “For Sale” signs in her North Lake neighborhood rattled her ego, she admits. But when Ms. McMahon closed her final sale, a house in Snellville, Ga., in late November, the mother of two felt a swell of relief.
“Now I can finally get my own house back together,” she says. “I’m nervous about the future, but I feel happy.”
McMahon is one of thousands of real estate agents across the US wandering with mixed emotions and uncertain prospects through the debris of a real estate gold rush.
As many train for new careers, return to old ones, or wait tables until prices rebound, the plight of the real estate agent – average age, 51 – reveals the human dimension of how loose lending, raw opportunity, and self-determination produced a housing bust that has stunned the US economy.
“They’ve tasted success and big money, and now their standard of living has been rocked and reality has set in,” says John Baen, a real estate professor at the University of North Texas in Denton. “The whole [economy] has been built on real estate. When the music stops, what is left?”
Americans are still drawn to working in real estate, according to the National Association of Realtors, which says its membership rose this year to 1.35 million. That growth in the ranks may be attributed to unaffiliated agents scrambling for clout in a tough market rather than an indication that the total number of agents is rising, the NAR acknowledges.
Evidence is growing that agents, especially in hard-hit markets like Florida, California, and Georgia, are closing up shop in large numbers, experts say.
Here in Atlanta, the number of agents letting their licenses lapse is growing at a faster pace than the number of overall licenses held. Nationally, an average agent’s income dropped from $49,300 to $47,900 between 2004 and 2006. Not helping that trend is the cold fact that, according to Standard & Poor’s house price index, home prices dropped precipitously in 2007, breaking the record 6.1 percent annual decline in 1991.
In Cape Coral, Fla., where only 30 percent of agents sold even a single home last year, real estate agents are “dropping out” daily, says local realtor Ginette Young. The Oregon Association of Realtors reports an 11.5 percent decline statewide of licensed agents in the past year.
Many of those who leave quietly shelve their signs. Others go out big: In Gilbert, Ariz., the fastest-growing city in the fastest-growing state, RE/MAX 2000 closed 13 offices throughout the Valley of the Sun, laying off at least 20 employees and scores of contract agents right before Christmas. The company couldn’t meet its expenses.
Real estate is a line of work filled with mothers returning to the workforce, older workers squeezed out of lifetime careers, and young opportunists looking to trade sweat equity for potentially big cash-outs. Indeed, the industry norm is that only 4 percent of agents choose real estate sales as a first career.
In Georgia, realty ranks had swelled to 48,000 at the peak of the market. In the end, many say, there were too many inexperienced agents hawking houses.
“There’s a lot of money being spent [on real estate classes] teaching agents how to waste a year of their life,” says Atlanta agent Sandy Koza. “Then you get a downturn and a bunch of people get bumped. To [experienced agents like] us, it cleans out the business a little bit.”
Florida’s Cape Coral, a canal-sliced beach community, saw 800 building permits a month fall to 25 to 30 in the past year. The rapid slowdown left real estate agents, investors, and brokers holding the bag on big-money deals.
“It’s a gold-rush mentality,” says Michael Davis, an economist at Southern Methodist University’s Cox School of Business in Dallas. He has been struck by how many agents, brokers, and investors, acting against conventional wisdom of portfolio management, converted large percentages of cash holdings into only a single and somewhat risky investment: property. “I don’t know whether they’re ignorant or optimistic, perhaps a little of both,” says Dr. Davis.
Many others became the foot soldiers in the housing boom, second- or third-careerists drawn to the self-determination, relatively low entrance costs, and perhaps even the allure of the trade as embodied by novelist Richard Ford’s legendary character Frank Bascombe, an angst-driven realtor who wanders the Jersey Shore for deals and revelations.
A former computer developer, Thomas Banecke of Sandy Springs, Ga., spent most of the summer baby-sitting a new condo development – usually a plum assignment. But when the Atlanta condo market tanked, foot traffic dwindled to almost zero.
Mr. Banecke is now back in the computer business and is putting his real estate career on hold. In some ways, he says, the cold housing market forced real estate agents, especially rookies, to confront their own abilities, schemes, and dreams. Upfront costs, marketing, association fees, and the crucial contacts are either more costly or harder to procure than an aspiring real estate agent usually expects, Banecke says.
“This kind of thing will wipe up a whole bunch of people who thought they could do this to make a living,” he says.
As for McMahon, the Atlanta agent, she still had a nice listing book and plenty of leads when she called it quits. In the end, unreliable buyers, surly sellers, and a lack of office camaraderie contributed to a decision that solidified when home sales and prices dipped. “I was waiting for a time to kind of swing out,” she says. She’s planning to become a high school science teacher.
One problem for out-of-work agents is that their skills may not transfer easily to other careers. California is waiting to hear on a $9 million federal retraining grant after 6,000 people lost their jobs in the housing industry since September.
But Dr. Baen of the University of North Texas is optimistic about their futures. “These people are hustlers, hard workers. They’re used to getting on the phone,” he says. “They’ll end up in insurance, in mutual funds, in retirement planning, and commodities.”
France is healthcare leader, US comes dead last: study Tue Jan 8, 2:13 PM ET
WASHINGTON (AFP) - France is tops, and the United States dead last, in providing timely and effective healthcare to its citizens, according to a survey Tuesday of preventable deaths in 19 industrialized countries.
The study by the Commonwealth Fund and published in the January/February issue of the journal Health Affairs measured developed countries’ effectiveness at providing timely and effective healthcare.
The study, entitled “Measuring the Health of Nations: Updating an Earlier Analysis,” was written by researchers from the London School of Hygiene and Tropical Medicine. It looked at death rates in subjects younger than 75 that could have been prevented by timely and effective medical care.
The researchers found that while most countries surveyed saw preventable deaths decline by an average of 16 percent, the United States saw only a four percent dip.
The non-profit Commonwealth Fund, which financed the study, expressed alarm at the findings.
“It is startling to see the US falling even farther behind on this crucial indicator of health system performance,” said Commonwealth Fund Senior Vice President Cathy Schoen, who noted that “other countries are reducing these preventable deaths more rapidly, yet spending far less.”
The 19 countries, in order of best to worst, were: France, Japan, Australia, Austria, Canada, Denmark, Finland, Germany, Greece, Ireland, Italy, Netherlands, New Zealand, Norway, Portugal, Spain, Sweden, the United Kingdom and the United States.
Some countries showed dramatic improvement in the periods studied — 1997 and 1998 and again between 2002 and 2003 — outpacing the United States, which showed only slight improvement.
White the United States ranked 15th of 19 between 1997-98, by 2002-03 it had fallen to last place.
“It is notable that all countries have improved substantially except the US,” said Ellen Nolte, lead author of the study.
Had the United States performed as well as any of the top three industrialized countries, there would have been 101,000 fewer deaths per year, the researchers said.
France is healthcare leader, US comes dead last
Shockingly, few care.
grim, don’t worry about 254
#256 - confused -
i don’t put much credence in articles i read on yahoo. i find most of them pretty shallow and uninformative. for example, in the tips for buyers they say:
“This cycle appears to be at or near the bottom.”
along with some simple minded advice like negotiate, and all real estate is local. Wow, I never heard that before.
i’ve also suspected that some articles are politically motivated. considering the tight race between obama and hillary, i find the timing a little suspicious.
Like most rankings, the health care league tables attract a lot of headlines. But the health care rankings are routinely designed to avoid giving the US credit for all the medicines that are invented and commericalized here. Developing new medicines and improving existing ones is a key part of health care.
If this contribution to world health was given the weight it should be given, then the US would be at or near the top of the table.
TCM #212
all the engineering disciplines are in the same boat. Electrical is probably the best shot you have of doing something mildly interesting, but really they are all hosed.
I would not tell someone to not do engineering. But i would make sure that they understand what the outlook is and that their best bet financially is to do BS in engineering then a MS in finance/business and work in the finance/business world.
256 tcm
You may well be right, although the movement in this Country to “Assembly Line Managed Care versus Private Practice”, and Hospitals which have outsourced everything from ER to Radiology, makes one wonder, about quality? Warren Hospital, which is a Community Hospital in Warren County, is even closing it’s Maternity Ward, because too many Patients lack insurance, not cost effective. Good article on TV today said moderate drinking is more effective then exercise, for preventing heart disease. Funny part about Red Wine, it’s known to boost yout HDL Good Cholesterol. So, I guess if you drink Red Wine ($6/Liter at Stirling Wines) you can dump your Lipitor plus Doctor & Lab visits, with no side effects other than feeling good.
Chicago 246,
I’m simply giving people the benefit of my experience going for a investment job when I didn’t have the conventional pedigree.
A lot of smaller shops have decided to hire more industry people and teach them the investment side of the biz. They aren’t afraid to consider people from non-finance work and education backgrounds - smaller shops are casting a wider net.
On the other hand, the big banks and asset managers still focus on hiring finance and accounting people and teaching them a particular industry. They miss some good candidates with this approach.
Most of us would agree that the poor in bumf*ck MS probably don’t get the best medical care. I am sick people comparing the entire USA with single Eurostates.
#250,
CFC is the next Enron.
The biggest Growth Industry in this Country appears to be Prisons, as we import the Worlds Criminals. Now if we could only Charge Dack the Cost to the Originating Country, we could remake America as the World’s Devil’s Island, and just put everyone to work as Prison Guards.
#258 - kettle -
thanks.
my son is majoring in engineering. he went into it not because he definitely wants to be an engineer, but he wanted to do something in math/science, and we were also advised that an undergraduate engineering degree is desirable because it shows you know how to think - be a problem solver etc. - and that graduate schools look favorably on it too.
i was feeling bad about all the comments on it because he takes very hard courses, and it seems sort of a shame that a smart kid, after working so hard, has such a bleek employment outlook. however, he probably will go on to graduate school. right now, he’s all starry eyed, and has no desire to work on wall st., but we’ll see if that changes once real life sets in.
He (172)-
The infrastructure beat-down is a knee jerk reaction to recession talk. The CBIs and FWLTs have billions of dollars in order backlogs and win more contracts almost daily.
Once the panic subsides, these companies are gonna get bid right back up.
I stopped out of FWLT…AND had a limit buy order trigger today. Never had that happen before in my life.
All disclaimers. I’d hate for my advice to make you a ramen-eater for the rest of your life.
interest rates are at summer ‘05 levels
house prices? ‘05? barely.
quit paying off 15 year mortgages for ‘02-’04 buyers.
#264
After this long a period of time, I doubt Europe and Africa are going to pony up.
grim, in moderation on 267
The guy who runs a NJ-based real estate vulture fund appears to have a new column over at globest.com. He is William Procida at Palisades Financial.
Might need to register on globest to get his stuff, but I think this piece is accurate and informative. It is too long to cut and paste though.
http://www.globest.com/viewpoints/bigpicture/167107-1.html
#264
Hey I hear you. During undergrad, I had to take all kinds of difficult Bio and Chemistry courses, with long labs and early morning classes, while many of the non-science majors partied and got wasted and slept in every day.
These are the guys who went on to work on Wall St, or to Law School because of connections and end up making the big bucks.
grim (183)-
All of us should put “male enhancment pill” in each of our posts. You’ll be at the top of Google in no time.
There are some smart cookies here, but I don’t detect an entrepreneurial bent. Too many IT/engineer/science (and other analytical, risk-averse) types. Gotta be a wack job to fly your own pirate flag.
pret (201)-
1. NJ Vulture Fund
2. Pool our beer money, and buy the dilapidated house on the edge of the swamp that Gary posted a few weeks ago.
Duckweed 240
As much dour stuff as I wrote on here today about science, I wouldn’t trade my chemistry degrees for anything either, even though I don’t use them anymore. Ok, maybe I would give the advanced one back in exchange for those wasted years of my life, but I’ll keep the BA. There’s nothing cooler than the periodic table, it’s so amazing, that the world can be reduced to the atom.
#253 I don’t care what article said …did anyone talk to FRENCH folks ..sick once.? My aunt came here for hart surgery ,,,,there should would have had to wait 10 months …she for should would have been lil cold by that time ,,,,and not from winters cold!!!
264…………..hey he can always marry a banker…………not kidding. Serious.
Ann (206)-
It’s all part of a calculated gubmint conspiracy to subjugate (and simulataneously enslave) the middle class.
Intellectual control, emotional control and physical control have almost been accomplished. Pretty soon, corporations and gubmint will have a billion or so narcoticized, NASCAR-addled zombies, ready to do their bidding with little-to-no resistance.
Want fries with that?
sybarite (210)-
Most people’s idea of science stops at the concept of restrictor plates in NASCARs.
If either of my kids looks twice at IT, I will slice their fingers off.
In the sweet old country where I come from
Nobody ever works
Yeah nothing gets done
We hang fire, we hang fire
You know marrying money is a full time job
I don’t need the aggravation
I’m a lazy slob
I hang fire, I hang fire
Hang fire, put it on the wire
We’ve got nothing to eat
We got nowhere to work
Nothing to drink
We just lost our shirts
I’m on the dole
We ain’t for hire
Say what the hell
Say what the hell, hang fire
Hang fire, hang fire, put it on the wire
Doo doo doo
here’s ten thousand dollars go have some fun
Put it all on at a hundred to one
Hang fire, hang fire, put it on the wire
277 Clotpoll
You need to watch more reality TV. Come on, there is serious stuff going on out there, like who can lose the most weight or date Tila Tequila.
276 Essex
Bankers are way overrated. They work too much.
#218 John Meanwhile guys his age on wall street make 4x his income.
Onlu those jobs are limited (no many), and becoming scarcer by the day.
make (236)-
CFC keeps diving toward 0, files for bankruptcy protection, the prime bits get vultured and the carcass is left to rot in the sun.
Bondholders get the scraps that are left, common shareholders get nuttin’.
If you’re up a quick 10%, get the f- out.
All disclaimers.
277 hey clot,
so true, especially considering middle class is a 500-1mil to invest.
you want an extended warranty with your blackberry?
John’s post was held in moderation…………..from 1958.
TCM 264
I was your son not to long ago, and then i got a real engineering job :( I loved the problem solving and the analytical thought required in college engineering classes. The only problem is that there are a few jobs that require real engineering but they are elusive at best. I have recently come to the conclusion that i want to go into finance, possibly quantitative finance. look into quantitative finance (also known and financial engineering), its basicly modeling financial systems. Your son might find it interesting
183. Or just concoct a snake-oil weight loss or male “enhancement” pill.
A lot of Modern Medicine is Modern Snake Oil.
o Patient has a Physical
o Patient say’s Doctor I feel good!
o Doctor say’s no you don’t, your Cholesterol is High. You need Statin Drugs.
o Patients say Doctor, Drug Side Effects make me feel Bad.
o Doctor say’s sometimes you have to feel Bad to be Healthy.
o Patient say’s I’m losing Confidence in you.
o Doctor say’s; “My Way or the Highway”.
o Patient say’s I feel ill.
o Doctor say’s, No you Don’t, test I ran say you’re O.K.
o Patient say’s can’t you run test to find out why I’m Sick
o Doctor say’s I only do “Well Care”, “Sick Care” doesn’t have a Script to Follow.
252 Confused in NJ posted the article about the RE agents dropping out of the industry in large numbers.
How many listings does a “busy” real estate agent who is doing well carry? I’ve been looking around at some of the websites for realtors in NJ, and I see maybe 3 or 4 house listings on their websites. Are these part-timers, or do they not post all of their lisitngs on the websites?
“pretorius Says:
January 9th, 2008 at 7:26 pm
Like most rankings, the health care league tables attract a lot of headlines. But the health care rankings are routinely designed to avoid giving the US credit for all the medicines that are invented and commericalized here. Developing new medicines and improving existing ones is a key part of health care.”
What is the point of US companies research (paid for in large part by US taxpayers but rapidly outsourced to India) bringing about new medicines (many of which don’t work appreciably better than old ones) if most of the people here cant F******G AFFORD THEM!?!
# Aaron Says:
January 9th, 2008 at 5:28 pm
I jumped ship back in the mid 90s when they moved an Indian PHD into the hood next to me who was making 35k. Two years after I left the plant was shut down.
I did 2yr school and moved into IT. One of the cooler ‘escapes’ I have seen was a really smart young woman that got into patent law.
patent law is always an option - company would pay for this too - but I talked to couple of people at the company who is getting this degree right now part time - it will take about 7 years - so for law - it is full time only or not go…
Oh, and here’s another ex-scientist (physiology and biomedical) although actually I prefer working out of the lab anyway.
Clot - actually you are right about analytical and risk averse, my husband just kicked my behind for always having fabulous ideas and then thinking/procrastinating them to death.
He’s the impulsive one; we’re working to meld the two together into one fully functional unit.
Forgot to mention the other day - UK universities are organized differently than in the US. Except in certain circumstances (Aberdeen, my old school accepts into faculties rather than departments) students join departments and follow a fairly strictly set range of courses. Choices are generally between several of one departments offerings (cognition or child development say in Psychology).
This means the education is frequently better focused, but the student needs a good idea of what they want to do with their lives from the get go. It also means that while a particular school may be excellent, you also have to look at the departments record. Sometimes a good school is weak in a certain area, sometimes a bad school has one standout department which is well recognized. My old school is a good example - Aberdeen is probably the lower of what are called the “Scottish Ivies”, in part because part of its focus is on providing an education for the more northern areas - the Highlands and Islands. BUT, my old department Biomedical Sciences, is in the top 5 in the country. So if the UK is a serious option, take a really good look all the fine issues.
#289- kettle1
thanks for the insight - and advice. i think it’s a good idea.
Looking at everyone’s post, it appears that a quantitative or science college education is still valuable. I don’t think these degrees will hold anyone back. One could stay in the discipline for a PhD if one really loves it and hang in academia or industry. If not, then you can go to law school, med. school (for bio sci. majors), finances, or other opportunities.
Doesn’t feel that any door is closed to a science major.
#296
No, it’s just that there are more doors, with bigger piles of money behind them, for other majors.
it sucks being gen x.
boomers with 80/20’s holding up the fall.
oh to be genZ… or damien hurst.
About a year ago, I sold a condo that I owned in suburban NJ.
I was shocked when I discovered that the guy who bought it is a flipper. The only work he did was paint the living room - the same ugly color that I painted over before I put it on the market.
He marked the price up 25%. The place is still on the market. After several price cuts, the asking price is down to where I sold it at.
This guy has lost $20,000 and counting.
I’m just another EE grad working in Finance. Started looking at Quant, but wonder if, considering the recent year’s results whether it isn’t primarily BS like charting and Elliot waves.
Clotpoll,
IT has treated me very well. I went into corporate and then government. I work exactly 9 hour days and get every other Friday off.
The money is pretty decent and I see my kids every day.
CFC– one last thing. (sorry for stock advice on the boards)
If they close below 5 they are going to get hammered! You cannot buy stocks under 5$ on margin… if they close under 5 the institutions will drop them like a hot potato.
Take your 10% and consider yourself lucky, they almost didn’t make it today.
Group if anyone is ever in Albany NY I have a stop for you Jacks Oyster Bar.Don’t be fooled by the name real nice place. Good food,good prices & the best oysters I have ever had.Right on State St off thruway.Posting from there now.Hanna Montana concert for my little girl( 145 a ticket).Mom & daughter saw concert I drink scotch, good deal.One observation scalpers were stuck with alot of ticket 10 min before show I could have bought for no markup (50)thats without dealing.They misread the market who is going to take their kid in hand to see a show with no tickets.In NJ tickets were from 1000-1500 at Newark concert.So I’m in Albany at a hotel.
I agree with your point the way you worded it the second time. Please remember, “stupid HR bureaucracies” are not inherently stupid, only if the staff member you are interacting with is stupid.
My wife would be an example of an HR Director that #1 makes your organization more efficient; #2 saves you time and distraction from your primary responsibilities; #3 constantly saves your co-workers and your a55es from being sued and terminated for cause by covering your back….
pretorius Says:
January 9th, 2008 at 7:35 pm
I’m simply giving people the benefit of my experience going for a investment job when I didn’t have the conventional pedigree.
n the other hand, the big banks and asset managers still focus on hiring finance and accounting people and teaching them a particular industry. They miss some good candidates with this approach.
pretorius Says:
January 9th, 2008 at 2:12 pm
Mike NJ #14, I recommend targeting smaller investment shops. They have open minds about hiring and aren’t weighed down by stupid HR bureaucracies that screen out many of the best candidates.
this is one long thread.
SAS
259 pret
That’s nice. Too bad we still die more frequently.
304
What chi said
Your nightly summary.
Sell CFC ASAP. (Don’t report paper gains)
December RE is looking baaaaad.
Try Caffe India.
—————–
I know someone was interested in Indian RE.
I have read a little about it and the past 2 years would have been a great time as it increased at about 40% annually. This year the economists predict 30-35% increases, but a slowdown in 2009-2010. There is no subprime crisis brewing here as all credit requires collateral, often jewelry is used.
The local version of CNBC is a riot. Their stocks are so volatile that as they announce a 10% gain, the same chart on the screen shows the stock is down 5%. Fortunately, they don’t cheerlead and although they like to point out the huge daily gainers and major index mileposts like the Sensex hitting 21 earlier this week, they warn the viewer that the market is way overvalued and it’s too late to pull the trigger on buying many of the equities. It’s kind of refreshing to see.
Otherwise, I had the greatest dessert ever last night in the hotel restaurant. It was a vanilla bean Kulfe with a wild berry sauce (I think it was rasberry and strawberry). It was probably the best tasting dessert I ever had.
Cheers.