Tue 29 Jan 2008
From MarketWatch:
Home prices falling at record rate in November
The decline in U.S. home values accelerated in November, with prices falling for the third month in a row in all 20 cities tracked by the Case-Shiller home price index released Tuesday by Standard & Poor’s.
For the 20 cities, prices fell a record 2.1% in November. In the past three months, prices fell at an annual rate of 16.2%.Among those 20 cities, prices have fallen a record 7.7% in the past year. For the original 10-city index, which has a longer history, prices are down a record 8.4% in the past year, exceeding the drop recorded in 1991.
Home prices fell in all 20 cities in November, led by a 3.6% drop in Los Angeles.
The outlook is grim, economists said.“With supply overhang enormous and mortgage financing tougher to obtain, home prices are going to decline considerably further in the quarters ahead, most likely to a double-digit pace on a year-over-year basis before too long,” wrote Joshua Shapiro, chief economist for MFR Inc.
“We reached another grim milestone in the housing market in November,” said Robert J. Shiller, chief economist at MacroMarkets LLC and one of the developers of the index. He noted that prices fell at a record pace in November in 14 of the 20 cities. In eight of the cities, prices have been falling for more than a year.
From Standard & Poor’s:
Data through November 2007, released today by Standard & Poor’s for its S&P/Case-Shiller® Home Price Indices, the leading measure of U.S. home prices, show broadbased declines in the prices of existing single family homes across the United States, marking the 11th consecutive month of negative annual returns and a full two years of decelerating returns.
From Standard & Poor’s:
S&P/Case-Shiller® Home Price Indices (XLS)
NY Metro area home prices down 4.84% year over year in November.
NY Metro area home prices are down 5.54% from the peak set in June of 2006.
NY Metro area home prices have fallen to August/September 2005 levels (not inflation adjusted).
YoY, it looks like NYC metro area has outperformed many other areas. Our price decline has been 4.84%, these metros have done worse:
Miami -15.09%
San Diego -13.43%
Las Vegas -13.16%
Detroit -12.98%
Phoenix -12.85%
Tampa -12.63%
Los Angeles -11.95%
San Fran -8.58%
Washington -7.77%
Minneapolis -6.64%
Cleveland -5.83%
From the Financial Times:
Case-Shiller adds to US housing gloom
The Case-Shiller index of home prices on Tuesday delivered the latest bleak snapshot of the US residential property market, with prices of homes in 20 large cities falling 7.7 per cent in the year to November 2007.
The decline was steeper than the 7.1 per cent drop expected by economists, and significantly more acute than a 6.1 per cent fall in the index the previous month.
The disappointing Case-Shiller report, published by Standard & Poor’s, will reinforce the belief that the US housing market has not yet reached bottom. On Monday, the US commerce department reported that new home sales in December had declined 4.7 per cent, hitting an annual pace of 604,000 – the lowest since 1995. This was also worse than expected.
“The continued steepening of house price declines, coupled with recent indications of further weakness in home sales, indicates that the housing contraction still has a way to run,” Goldman Sachs economists wrote in a report. “It also indicates that the problems for securities with mortgages as collateral, and the credit crunch they have spawned, have further to run”.
From Bloomberg:
U.S. Consumer Confidence Declined to 87.9 in January From 90.6
Consumer confidence fell in January, approaching a two-year low, as Americans struggled with high energy costs and a persistent housing slump.
The Conference Board’s index of confidence decreased less than forecast to 87.9 from a revised 90.6 the prior month, the New York-based group said today. The index averaged 103.2 last year.
The figures may reinforce concern that Americans will cut back spending, which accounts for more than two-thirds of the economy. Home values are falling and higher gasoline and heating- fuel costs are adding to consumers’ woes, economists said.
“There’s not much for consumers to hang on,” Sal Guatieri, a senior economist at BMO Capital Markets in Toronto, said before the report. “Home prices and equity prices are falling and employment growth is weak.”
sync,
How do we explain performance in Charlotte, Portland, and Seattle?
Charlotte +4.3%
Seattle +3.3%
Portland +1.9%
How, exactly, is Charlotte faring better than NYC? Heck, both Boston and Chicago fared better during this period.
If you are looking for a gloom and doom article.
http://www.marketwatch.com/news/story/america-land-bubbles-next-pop/story.aspx?guid=%7B60CE4669%2D6814%2D4A48%2DA555%2DBE998EC6FC58%7D
“Given the current state of our economy, the only thing worse than a new bubble is its absence.”
From CNN/Money:
Home price drop hits a new record low
The S&P Case/Shiller report shows the biggest year-over-year price decline on record.
The housing market is only getting worse, according to the latest report from S&P Case/Shiller released Tuesday.
Home prices were down 8.4 percent in November compared with last year in its 10-city index, a record low. The 20-city index also fell 7.7 percent.
The Case/Shiller report compares same-home sale prices. The industry considers it to be one of the most accurate snapshots of housing prices.
Previously, the largest year-over-year decline on record was 6.3 percent in April 1991. The November report marked the 11th consecutive month of negative returns for the index, and twenty-four months of decelerating returns.
I plotted Charlotte in Excel, it doesn’t look like they had a bubble at all. The price line is about as close to a straight line as could be expected.
Portland and Seattle graphs resemble the NYC graph, I don’t know what’s going on in the Pac NW.
Charlotte - was late to the bubble and prices are still quite low. So all peopel leaving NJ with gains form selling house here can easilly afford 3% increased price in Charlotte.
My relatives live in small town Montana - Population increased fron about 30,000 to 100,000 - local people getting priced out - house priced doubled on Californians moving in - they did nto even negotiated the price - just bough at whatever price it was.
I was tere for christmas - 3bed/2bath house (nice, big - about 2600Sqft, but not new - about 15years old, on 1.2acres….) - Guess how much they are asking…… 750K!!!!It is in Montana - in hte middle on nowhere, not by skiing resort, not buy lake - nowhere!!!!
Only 1.2 Acres - of course this is asking but still…..
No wonder it has being on the market for I think close to ayear. So if you plug this town in Montana - it will probably be close to 25% appreciation last year….
So in Charlotte - well is was the same.
Seattle is a different story - but having realtives who bough house there last year as well - well they are slowly declining - and it will accelerate.
And also - all thouse condoos sitting empty in Seattle - they just got as carried away as CA.
At some point there was no condos built under 500K!!!
I live 20 miles south of Charlotte, so I can speak for this area. It is a growing area because a lot of northeasterners and mid-westerners are moving away from the cold. Demand has been fairly good, so prices have not dropped that much. But there are pockets of weakness. Charlotte has a bunch of developments that were predominantly subprime neighborhoods that are looking more and more like ghost towns these days. Twenty miles south there are houses sitting for over a year without any selling price drops, so they just sit unsold.
So I have another question:
I monitor REO houses for sale….
Banks are not dropping prices…
In a year they dropped asking by 10K!!!
Why???
They carrying costs are close to 10K/year…
Do Banks count money anymore?? I would expect them to be on top of opportunity costs…
Or is everyone hoping for quick rebound/recovery??
kettle1:
In response to your question about the Alternative Energy bubble. Yes it has begun anew, and even if today’s high oil prices of $90 per barrel eventually begin to fall and history just repeats the same 12-year oil price cycle as last time oil was high in the 70s and early 80’s from 1973-85, you might reasonably expect green technology to be hot until the price of Oil comes to a bottom say in the year 2015.
Monorail derails a monoline?
Ambac-insured Vegas monorail may default-Moody’s
Nearly $446 million of bonds insured by troubled AMBAC Financial Group for the Las Vegas Monorail project could default in as soon as two years, according to Moody’s Investors Service, which on Tuesday sliced the monorail’s credit three notches to “Caa3″ from “B3.”
#11 Al,
Encourage more people to walk away, that’ll
spankleverage the bank’sassbottom line to sell you an REO for a good price.http://www.youwalkaway.com/
Investors & pensions aren’t being paid back by bad mistakes so why should banks get anything but the house? Its just
oops, my badbusiness.I posted this on the last thread…
Here is another good one - not HELOC (which is what I am looking for) but good comp killer from Dover.
Purchased 2006 - $440,000
2006 Line of Credit (same day as mortgage and notated on Mortgage) $44,000
2006 Mortgage $352,000 ( both from Weichert)
(Looks like 90% financed property - pretty good compared to the other foreclosures I have seen.)
2007 $352,000 loan bought by Wells Fargo
Wells Fargo files foreclosure June 2007
Listed Craigslist 2008 as follows:
$295000 Huge Home For Sale For A Dam Cheap Price
and
Seller/Bank will take highest acceptable offer.
Also, does anyone know of an economic model that allows one to calculate the inverse relationship between the percent of foreclosures to the value of homes/neighborhoods?
Thanks in advance.
#11 - Al
Nobody’s lowering prices. It’s very frusterating
#17 Ready: You just have to be patient and disciplined, it is all playing out accordingly. Try not to let it get you frustrated.
Shhhhh…don’t tell prêt….
BARRON’S
January 28, 2008
Superluxe Less Super
Manhattan’s Mood Darkens
Manhattan’s superluxe residential real-estate market, long im¬pervious to economic forces that affect lower priced digs, is showing some cracks.
“The top, top of the market is a little soft,” says Dolly Lenz, vice chairman of Prudential Douglas Elliman. “Even with more aggressive pricing, things aren’t moving as quickly” as they were a year ago, she says. Lenz says that this trend in the $10 million-plus market began taking shape before the credit crisis and stems from a weakening of confidence. That may only deepen with the recent downdraft in the equity markets, con¬cerns about mortgage lending and fears of recession.
The news that Wall Street bonuses fell 5% last year, to an av¬erage of $180,420, won’t help matters, either [edit: REALLY?].
Based on recent prices for all Manhattan apartments-the av¬erage hit a record $1.4 million in the fourth quarter-you wouldn’t know there were problems.
But Lenz says those num¬bers represent deals negotiated two years ago, at the height of the boom[edit !!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!]
Driven by higher rental costs and fears of still tighter mortgage credit, the $1 million to $6 million segment of the market is holding firm, says Lena. Lend¬ ers already have raised their minimum downpayments to 25% from 5%; the worry is they’ll go higher.
And the lower end of the market, always more interest-rate sensitive, has been getting a lift from declining rates, says Pam Liebman, president and CEO of the Corcoran Group. Though she hasn’t seen softness in the superluxe market, she notes that this year so far isn’t like ‘07, where the psychology of the market was “buy, buy, buy.” That mood could return if top-end come down a little further. -robin goldwyn
#19 That mood could return if top-end come down a little further.
Yes and pigs can fly, and it snows in July.
Just released smith barney research
Valuation
We are lowering our fair value estimate for Countrywide to $5 from $6 as we add in a 25% chance that Bank of America will either renegotiate the transaction price or not go through with the deal. The fair value estimate is based on BofA’s stock price ($37.39 at the close of Jan. 22), and consequently could be quite volatile. currently, BofA is set to exchange 0.1822 of its shares for each share of Countrywide. However, the terms of the deal
contract make it fairly easy for BofA to renegotiate or call off the deal. With significant legal liabilities, a deteriorating housing market, and seven months remaining before the deal closes, we peg a 25% possibility that something goes wrong with this transaction.
Off topic, but I read this morning that the Wall St Journal is moving uptown to Murdoch’s News Corps headquarters.
He is also looking to expand and broaden the readership base, and as such will be adding a sports page, more politics, and of course an entertainment section.
The end of an era as the WSJ was in lower Manhattan for 119 years.
#10…..charlotte….NC….I have ‘kinfolk’ in Davidson. House on golf course — sits — nada. Nothing….slowing market there too.
From CNN/Money:
Home ownership in record plunge
The housing and mortgage meltdown caused the biggest one-year drop in the rate of homeownership on record, according to government figures released Tuesday.
The Census Bureau report showed that home owners accounted for 67.8% of occupied homes in the fourth quarter, down 1.1 points from a year earlier. It’s the largest year-over-year drop recorded in the report. The ownership rate was also well below the 68.2% ownership rate in the third quarter of 2007.
Homeownership rates, which have been tracked since 1965, hit a record high of 69.2% at the end of 2004.
The report also also showed a record 2.18 million homes vacant and available for sale in the fourth quarter, up from the 2.07 million in the third quarter and the 2.1 million a year earlier. The fourth-quarter reading on vacant homes for sale matched the previous record set in the first three months of 2007.
re: 22 -
3b picture the NY Post with a better font.
#17
Your frustration will be paid of in the end when you buy 50 cents on the dollar.
You do have a choice. You can buy now and finance the sellers retirement account or wait patiently for the right time.
#1
“YoY, it looks like NYC metro area has outperformed many other areas”
you need to take NYC sales/price out of NE RE data ,,,,and new PICKTURE more realistic will emerge. NYC has always been separate market.
#25 sean: Thats what I am afraid we will see.
“We are lowering our fair value estimate for Countrywide to $5 from $6″
Priceless WS research.
From a previous thread:
“pretorius Says:
Lisoosh,
Do you actually consider buying any of these places?”
I once considered a dirt cheap Cadwalader mansion but the associated headache of private schools put me off.
I really want a house with some property. If I could have a 6 acre spread in the middle of the city that would be fantastic, but you have to compromise so rural it is and I don’t want to go nuts with a huge house. Too much upkeep.
My main reason for pointing out those homes was that they were built when the areas were obviously completely different. Those neighbourhoods were once the cream of the state. It is good to remember that Brigadoon is a different town in different years and not to give in to hubris.
AL,
I have also seen Montana RE upclose and it is a sad state of affairs for many of the locals.
Re places like Charlotte -
Their bubble effect was different. Rather than skyrocketing prices, they saw overdevelopment. Too many houses too quickly, controlled prices but now they have the problem of empty developments.
Different scenario, same source, equal pain. Houses there sit and sit, even when priced according to local salaries.
Sean,
Oil prices will always be volatile , but do not expect oil to consistently stay low. As the chinese and indian middles classes grow their demand for oil is growing at a huge rate. Current oil production rates just meet demand. Most of the larger oil fields around the world such as saudi, north sea, mexico, are already in decline or expected to enter decline soon. At the same time you have rapidly growing demand in china and India for oil due to the growing middle class.
It sounds like we may have to politely disagree but by 2015 $90 oil will considered cheap.
Might i suggest you take a quick look at this
from shell
http://tinyurl.com/ypgrht
Sean, another point for you to consider,
if you want to see a preview of what we may have to deal with look at russia and europe w/ regard to natural gas.
Russia has been cutting their supply of natural gas to europe short because local demand has been higher then expected and the natural gas usually sold to europe stays put. This puts place like ireland and the UK in a bad situation, as they do not have any significant storage capacity of natural gas and must depend on constant supply from russian pipelines. As supply outsrtipes demand producers will begin putting less and less product on the market and keeping more at home for local use. The US is set up for potential supply problems with natural gas supplies in the near future, that is why you hear about all of the new offshore natural gas depots being planned and built, although that may only slow the inevitable.
What are the leading indicators of a ‘good’ neighborhood going irreversibly down the tubes?
“UK house prices slumped in the quarter to December 07, with London leading the way as momentum gathers towards the 2 year forecast for an average decline of 15% by August 2009. The mortgage banking sector has only just beginning to feel the impact of the housing slump as the number of foreclosures (repossessions) is expected to surge to a record busting 80,000 for 2008 from 40,000 last year. Northern Rock was the first to go bust, other banks will follow. But in the meantime watch out for other mortgage lenders, especially those exposed to the buy to let sector such as Paragon to be pushed towards bankruptcy, down 90% from its highs.”
“The Big Freeze continues to tighten on the UK commercial property market with Britain’s fourth biggest insurer, Friends Provident freezing its Property Fund in December and thereby denying over 110,000 investors the ability to liquidate their investments. The unfolding crash in the commercial real estate market may be the biggest in 27 years as valuations are cut on holdings of the UK’s £700 billion commercial property market.”
http://www.financialsense.com/fsu/editorials/walayat/2008/0129.html
so NYC-area prices have come down 5-10% from the 2006 peak, in real terms. Based on the way the trend is accelerating, I think you can easily double these losses for 2008. We could be 20% off peak prices by 2009
“What are the leading indicators of a ‘good’ neighborhood going irreversibly down the tubes?”
That is a very subjective question.
In my opinion, when you perceive a significant uptick in the local crime rate, the neighborhood is done.
Often this is preceded by the establishments of gangs in your local high school.
Based on my numbers, if you bought at the average in 11/06 and paid $642K and your home is now, 11/07, marketable at $611K ( or the -4.84% decline) or $31K less. Sadly this could reflect a complete loss of equity for many of the 5% down folks.
Assuming one cosumated the above transaction, which corresponds to 20x leverage, the ROE over the year would be -96.7%. That’s pretty painful especially after you consider opportunity cost which at a minimum would be +5%.
To avoid ending this post on such a negative note, i’m sure plenty of buyers put down at least 10%, hence only a ROE loss of -48.3%. Plus, I heard a commecial sponsered by the National Association of Realtors, that said on average realeste doubles every 10 years. So despite this “glitch” you’ll be fine by year 20__?
Prices in Charlotte have started to drop lately as well. See below website.
http://www.trulia.com/real_estate/Charlotte-North_Carolina/
37 skep-tic
Bad news - I agree with you. But I was pretty sure that prices were going to come down by the end of 2006, at least enough to warrant a long term purchase versus renting. Good news, the broken clock theory may apply to me.
Anyone have an opinion of the Journal - Real Estate Economics? Is it primarily academic or trade related? Recommend or Avoid?
Thanks in advance.
kettle1
I agree to a point about Gas and Oil prices staying high but bear in mind Oil and Gas are still do for another run up to perhaps $150-$200 a barrell or more and if a war starts much higher.
As I said earlier in another post $30 a barrel is never coming back, where it will end up all depends. The farm is bet, and if newly discovered fields south of the border don’t materialze all bets are off.
Read up on the Rig Companies like Transocean Inc.
http://finance.yahoo.com/q/bc?s=RIG&t=5y
They have bet the farm that there is 15 billion barrels 175 miles off the coast of Louisiana in the Jack 2 field and are developing super deep drilling equipment and techniques to get at that oil and gas. There are also lots of large new large finds in Central and South America.
The only way those Central and South American reservers of Oil and Gas will ever go Asia is if someone over there starts WWIII and wins it.
There are inherent problems with deep water drilling that are just now being overcome (like Hurricane Katrina shutting down work for over a year) by American companies who are betting the farm on these new oil and gas fields and our technology prowess.
In the interim the Green Technology bubble is growing and growing.
And if these newly discovered fields south of the border don’t materialze?
Then all bets are off.
Kelly:
Were do you get that information? (mortgage, liens, etc) It is great! (I would like to extract some info for a couple of properties)
Thanks
I recently read that, historically speaking, annual rent rates run at about 5 to 5.5% of home values. By that logic, my two bedroom condo in Hoboken for which I pay market rent of approximately $3000 per month would be worth $720,000. That seems awfully high to me. Does anyone out there have any stats that can show the historical correlation between residential rental rates and house values in the NY metro area?
#30 lisoosh: East Orange up until the late 60’s early 70’s was one of the most prestigious towns in NJ to live in. It started its rapid decline in the earlyy 70’s. Its now referred to by the local gangsters as Ill-town.
30 re hubris, Brigadoon
Didn’t Westfield go through a downturn too and then was revitalized at some point? It wasn’t always Brigadoon from what I remember hearing.
38 Stu
I agree, when the gangs start filtering in, watch out. They rarely leave and things usually don’t get better from that point.
Sean,
we seem to agree on the basics and disagree on some of the details. The newer deep fields such as the south american field off of brazil may or may not pan out. That field and several of the larger new ones are deeper then they have commercially drilled before and they projected yields are still highly suspect as from what i have read, they assume that they will recover oil at the same efficiency as shallow fields. From the info i have seen eve if all of these new fields turn out as best case scenario the new supply will not keep up with demand.
I also think that this will ulimatly tie into housing, because if you thin it is expensive to heat your home now, then just wait a few years as fuel prices continue to go up. heating expenses , at least in places like the northeast will start to become a factor in home purchase considerations.
declining towns…
I grew up in a town in Southern Bergen County, then we moved to N BC when I was older
I drive through my old town and the towns around it once in a while, and I can’t believe how they have gone downhill. They were quite nice back then.
If I buy on the NAR’s logic of assuming home values double every 10 years and factor in mainstream economic assumptions that RE will decline through 2008 and 2009 at about the same rate as 07 and then flat for 2010 and 2011, RE would have to increase in value by 13% a year for each subsequent year from 2012 to 2017. Am I alone in thinking this is irresponsible?
Dan #44
Grim gave out a link yesterday to the Morris County database - so I have limited my searches to that. It is somewhat monotonous - but I like that type of stuff. You have to research record after record and check out all the names on the deed. It is all on scanned data so you can not cut and paste the info. On newer properties I have a hard finding all the necessary info for the research.
I am looking for HELOC/Mortgages that well exceed the value of the property.
Glad someone other than me enjoys looking at those numbers!
Well my old neighborhood when we saw clothes lines on the front lawn that was a leading indictor we were on the way down. Another favorite is these type of new neighbors, missing teeth, cat ladies, shade tree mechanics and 40 guys named Jose in a three bedroom ranch.
Of course as soon as your town has a white castle and a day labor pick up site it is pretty much over.
Screw the NAR - historically every normal investement doubles every ten years, stocks bonds with reinvested income etc. Pulling your money from a good stock mutual fund to buy a house historically is a bad investment. Plus if you bought a 200K house at 7 percent interest on a nothing down loan you would have paid 156K interest income in the first ten years, so even if it went to 400K yin ten years ou would only be up 44K. That does not even include RE taxes.
http://www.youwalkaway.com/
Web site that helps you walk away from your house, if facing foreclosure. No need to stress any more.
This is a follow-up to a posting I made on Sunday about going to see an open house in Hanover listed for 540k.
We liked the house and our agent called yesterday only to find out that the house has gone into attorney review. He mentioned that we might be interested in making an offer for 500k. The listing agent said the current offer is much better than that and there are no contingincies.
Just a bullet point for any of you out there looking in the morris county area
356 Salty: Let it go. Fromm attorney review to actual closing is a long time;wait and see what happens.
3b,
you gotta love all of the happy smiling family pics at the top of the page :)
PARIS (AP) — The trader accused of causing about $7 billion in losses at Societe Generale told investigators that he believes his bosses were aware of his massive risk-taking on markets but turned a blind eye as long as he earned money, a judicial official said Tuesday.
Jerome Kerviel told investigators: “I can’t believe that my superiors were not aware of the amounts that I was committing, it is impossible to generate such profits with small positions,” according to excerpts of his testimony published in Le Monde newspaper. Kerviel’s remarks were confirmed by Isabelle Montagne, a spokeswoman for the Paris prosecutor’s office.
A lawyer for the bank accused Kerviel of lying. Societe Generale said last week that Kerviel’s actions cost the bank nearly 5 billion euros ($7 billion) as it unwound his trades.
A rogue trader, aided by his firm…as long as the trades were in the money?
358 kettle: Yes and they will provide you with your own customized plan to do it. It will help you stay in the house as long as podssible for FREE!!!
And thats not all you can even speak live to your own personal advocate, who will help you naviagate the process every step of the way!!
And I would think that if you call right now, you can probably get a free Ginsu knife too, it slices, it dices, it peels!!!!
Gangs, crime, clothes lines and Jose.
I see a lot of graffiti around me. It wasn’t there a year ago.
No crime yet, though. Or clothes lines.
Just a bullet point for any of you out there looking in the morris county area
Steve,
Is this the same house that was asking the same price as the 2005 purchase price?
If so, why are you surprised that homes priced well are selling?
Couldn’t believe the grafitti on the sound walls on Route 18 by the Old Bridge/East Brunswick border. I grew up there and it wasn’t bad at all.
“A rogue trader, aided by his firm…as long as the trades were in the money?”
Clot,
The rogues, Socgen, sit in the corner offices.
“What are the leading indicators of a ‘good’ neighborhood going irreversibly down the tubes?”
How about the ‘town next door’ going down the tubes?
#63 stu: There is graffiti on the sound barriers on Rt 17 in Saddle River!!
#54 “John Says:
January 29th, 2008 at 1:32 pm
Screw the NAR - historically every normal investement doubles every ten years, stocks bonds with reinvested income etc.”
Agreed. The only benefit RE has is that capital gains are, in most cases, free. Of course, one need not pay any taxes on equities until the gain is realized, instead of every year like RE.
#62 grim:If so, why are you surprised that homes priced well are selling?
Do you consider houses selling at 05 levels as being priced well?
Syncmaster 35,
Two indicators I analyze are homeownership and educational attainment.
If these metrics are rising faster in a particular neighborhood compared to othern nearby, then it is a good sign that the neighborhood is getting better and home prices should outperform. The opposite is probably true, too. Data is available by census tract but takes some time to collect and analyze.
Several years ago I did this analysis for Hudson County and Northampton and Lehigh Counties in Pennsylvania. Model said buy Hoboken, Weehawken, and parts of Jersey City. Said sell rest of Hudson County neighborhoods. Worst neighborhood in Hudson was western part of Guttenberg.
I thought about buying some stuff in Allentown and Bethlehem because prices there seemed too low. Then I did analysis and indicators showed no signs of a turnaround in neighborhoods out there. College-educated people are fleeing in droves and being replaced by renters. I don’t want to own real estate in places like that.
# 68
If the other homes in the area are priced at peak and one has their heart set on living in that particular area one can make argue that it is priced well. Perhaps it is not priced at bottom but for the moment it may be priced well.
TO syncmaster -i recall you are currently renting in P-way (I do as well) - according to long term p-way residents: town is going down the drain - city officials too corrupt and there are gangs in schools now….
I was tols they have appeared in the last 4-5 years. Not too much, but they are here.
House inspectors literally asking for the bribe in order for you to get a CO if you did anything!! yourself or not through their cronnies.
I do nto knwo about house inspectors but I do know about gangs starting to form…
BC Bob Says:
January 29th, 2008 at 1:59 pm
“A rogue trader, aided by his firm…as long as the trades were in the money?”Clot,
The rogues, Socgen, sit in the corner offices.
Bost: At least in the U.S., the people in charge accept the Marie Antoinette treatment. Stupid frogs are on the Parisian march to irrelevancy.
Quoting the eBay listing joke:
Historic WWII French Army rifle.
Pristine condition; never discharged.
Only dropped once…..
Hypocritical ba$tards….
# 71 or 72 Gangs? I heard they were self-organized and self-funding youth groups.
Couldn’t believe the grafitti on the sound walls on Route 18 by the Old Bridge/East Brunswick border.
There’s graffiti on most sound barriers. Big deal.
287 @ Mountain Lakes is covered with it. I’d take a house there.
#70 shore: Just trying to clarify for myself., Because if the peak was 05, then we are back or flat at 05 peak levels.
If the peak was 06, then we are down from 06 peak pricing.
# 75
Yea, but in Mountain Lakes it is painted with Ralph Lauren paint and the painters properly use both the subjunctive case and the plural possessive.
# 76
Gotcha.
Shore Guy Says:
January 29th, 2008 at 2:14 pm
# 71 or 72 Gangs? I heard they were self-organized and self-funding youth groups.
I’d say right now they are still not self-funding or any funding at all, and thats why there is still hope…..
I know that P-way police is quite pissed off about that - they do not want to get shot at.
It sounds like the Senate is poised to slow down the great Target shopping spree givaway.
Is the grafitti on the inside or outside of the barriers?
If it is on the outside, it’s evidence that the barriers are working to keep the riff-raff out.
Didn’t Maplewood want to build a wall across it’s Irvington/Newark border?
Funny story bought a house with an illegal bathroom upstaris, had money in escrow to get get co after closing.
Week one Inspector shows up and I tell him bathroom is upstairs, says he knows and does not move, I repeat bathroom is upstairs and he says look if you are not going to work with me I am leaving and he leaves.
Week two call inspectors office to complain and they send the guy back, Inspector shows up and I tell him bathroom is upstairs, says he knows and does not move, I repeat bathroom is upstairs and he says look if you are not going to work with me I am leaving and he leaves.
Week three complain to my assembly man which puts me in touch with head of housing permits, I go to his big office and explain and he launches into this speech that us tax evaders put in illegal additions and then years later when we want to move to florida we rush them for cos. I then explain I did not put the bathroom in and I am a new home owner and the assembly man said he would do a investigation if this does not get resolved. He goes ok.
week four same guy comes back and I start to say the bathroom is upstairs and he interputs my and says don’t start with that crap again I am just here to give you your permit and he hopped in his red caddie and tore off. He never did visit my bathroom but I got a permit!
66:
Yeah, but the grafitti says, “Shhhhh. Quiet please.”
[81] Yes Maplewood wanted to build a wall at one time, I heard that as well.
Honestly, can’t say I blame the town. I’d want to build one to if I lived near Irvington. Have you ever checked out the crime rates there?
# 84 I thought it was a moat the wanted.
[85] Guess Maplewood didn’t want to pay for another “llewellyn park” (don’t know if that’s spelled right).
Seroiusly, does anyone know when the conventional loan threshold is going to go up?
excuse the missing “y”
Jam,
Are you waiting on that to lock in a jumbo?
#87 Dont count on it happening anytime soon. The senate is going to mess around with the House/White House deal and nothing is certain yet.
Al, I own in Pis cat away. Not rent.
Yes, there are gangs now. Graffiti is way more than it was even some time back. Route 287 is a disaster, esp around Edison. But the graffiti I’m talking about is more local. Lincoln Blvd in Middlesex, I even saw one instance of it inside my condo complex. I am pretty much convinced that buying here was a bad idea.
[89] Not really, some banks give conventional rate up to 615 and others up to 750. I’m not borrowing that much so the threshold increase will not really mean anything to me.
Al, don’t get me started on P-way police. They’re a bunch of p*****s. I called once last summer about a ‘disturbance’, the patrol car came by, chatted with the evildoers and then just left. The disturbance resumed shortly afterwards.
#81 grim I though that Maplewood had gates in certian areas of the town that bordered on Newark, and that they were closed after 10:00 P.M.
This was going back to the late 90’s so not 100% sure.
94 Ocean Grove used to have several gates they used to close off Asbury Park at midnight and the whole town for all of sunday.
WASHINGTON — The Federal Reserve, working to combat effects of a serious credit crisis, said Tuesday it had auctioned $30-billion (U.S.) in funds to commercial banks at an interest rate of 3.123 per cent.
It marked the fourth in a series of innovative auctions the Fed began last month in an effort to provide cash-strapped banks with extra reserves. The Fed’s hope is that the increased resources will keep banks lending and prevent a severe credit squeeze from pushing the country into a recession.
http://www.reportonbusiness.com/servlet/story/RTGAM.20080129.wfedauction0129/BNStory/Business/home
Grim #13:
Lyle Lanley: Well, sir, there’s nothing on earth
Like a genuine,
Bona fide,
Electrified,
Six-car
Monorail!
What’d I say?
Ned Flanders: Monorail!
Lyle Lanley: What’s it called?
Patty+Selma: Monorail!
Lyle Lanley: That’s right! Monorail!
[crowd chants `Monorail' softly and rhythmically]
Miss Hoover: I hear those things are awfully loud…
Lyle Lanley: It glides as softly as a cloud.
Apu: Is there a chance the track could bend?
Lyle Lanley: Not on your life, my Hindu friend.
Barney: What about us brain-dead slobs?
Lyle Lanley: You’ll be given cushy jobs.
Abe: Were you sent here by the devil?
Lyle Lanley: No, good sir, I’m on the level.
Wiggum: The ring came off my pudding can.
Lyle Lanley: Take my pen knife, my good man.
I swear it’s Springfield’s only choice…
Throw up your hands and raise your voice!
All: Monorail!
Lyle Lanley: What’s it called?
All: Monorail!
Lyle Lanley: Once again…
All: Monorail!
Marge: But Main Street’s still all cracked and broken…
Bart: Sorry, Mom, the mob has spoken!
All: Monorail!
Monorail!
Monorail!
[big finish]
Monorail!
Homer: Mono… D’oh!
syncmaster Says:
January 29th, 2008 at 2:42 pm
Al, I own in Pis cat away. Not rent.
Yes, there are gangs now. Graffiti is way more than it was even some time back. Route 287 is a disaster, esp around Edison. But the graffiti I’m talking about is more local. Lincoln Blvd in Middlesex, I even saw one instance of it inside my condo complex. I am pretty much convinced that buying here was a bad idea.
I’d never buy a condo unless it is cash flow positive +20%…. - you have all disadvantages of an apartment, plus, you can not move.
Gangs are more “amature” but it will not take long unless something is done. Graffiti doe not bother me.
I just heard they are increasing the Parkway and Turnpike tolls.
Did someone open their wallet in front of the Gov and he spot the last 2 nickels you had left?
NO goverment want you to take a credit to pay tolls :) Everybody is doing it:)
47 kettle (previous thread)
Exfreakingzactly.
Al #98,
At the time I bought the place, I didn’t know 1% of what I know now - and even now, I know very little! :) I bought the place because people convinced me I should, prices go up up up. I even took out an ARM at the time :)
Live (and lose) and learn.
Bank Reserves Go Negative
http://www.minyanville.com/articles/MER-C-jpm-bac-MBI-WB/index/a/15712
38 stu
I think you’re right
I think the actual point is when enough people become afraid to walk in certain areas at certain times in their town, and suddenly there is a loss of the sort of community feel that happens when people gather in public places (whether for a stroll, a bite at a sidewalk cafe, an evening jog, what have you).
I realized that NYC was a different place when it became obvious that most residents no longer had a “safe zone” map in their heads at all times.
I think the actual point is when people starting to move out because they do nto dfell safe - the moment first few people moves out and get replaced by let’s say someone you would not want to be Your neightbour - it is all downhill from there.
HEHEHE
I posted the raw data from the st louis fed a couple of weeks ago showing that, and all i got was a comment from (3b i think) saying something along the lines of “pay no attention to the man behind the curtain”.
to me, that data is a serious alarm bell!
re: (103) Hehehe
There also has been a mini-run on CDs, and banks have lengthened the period it takes to transfer money around.
The use of the new TAF (Term Auction Facility)and the Fed not disclosing who is borrowing under the TAF leaves me to believe that the $250 Billion in defaults will come to pass this year.
Somebody is going to have to pay or there will be a run on the banks.
Does anyone know where I can hide all my my gold so the Treasury Agents cannot find it?
HSBCDirect is down t 3.8%
107,
Sean you may or may not be joking, but that comment about treasury agents may not be so far off. gold has been banned in the past and i can easily see it happening again. It represents to much of a threat to a rapidly inflating currency.
oh i would recommend a self installed safe behind some drywall, simple and effective
HSBCDirect is down t 3.8%
Sickening, isn’t it? ING is killing me.
Let’s punish people who save, what could possibly go wrong?
hehe [103],
Alarming. If our currency was backed by anything tangible, we would be revisiting 1929.
Grim and all I will explain why Charlotte isn’t falling like the north. I’m not spamming or trolling this is the truth some of you have heard me say it many times. You can try denying it with were all toothless and live in trailers with the left over VHS tapes from blockbuster.
Charlotte never experienced the bubble to its full degree. Yes it went up a more than usual the past couple of year but there is an easy explanation for this.
My House in NJ 2,000 SQ, 26+ yrs old, needed roof soon, fence, pool liner, kitchen remodel. Probably about 45K worth of work to make it as new. Sold it for $500,000
In the Charlotte area it seemed like a steal for us to purchase a house 1,000 sq ft larger and Brand New. When I say 1,000 sq ft larger I also mean I have 24ft ceilings in a third of the house its very open as opposed to very boxy. It is really about 3600 sq ft if I had bonus rooms put in but I like it open. Nearly twice the house at half the price and a quarter the taxes. We purchased it for $257,000. Essentially I have a car payment larger than my mortgage payment. Taxes dropped to $2,400 a year and thats the pricey side of taxes. Some of the best schools in the nation, low crime rates, and I live in walking distance to the lake and I haven’t shoveled snow in 3 years. No Tolls.
NOW 2008 WHY ISNT CHARLOTTE DROPPING.
My house up north is worth 446K now with the declines.
Now my house down here is worth 325K if I were to sell it today. The reason we dont see a real price drop if that as you can see the housing in the north is still priced a lot higher than down here. My house New in NJ would be about $650K-$700K. So to someone from the north we look like a bargain. They would see it even if they sold at $445K and bought at $325K as saving $120K and getting a lot more house for the money and NEW!
Jobs. Well I make about 85% of what I used to from NJ. I am offered perm jobs more than what perm would pay me back in NJ. I will say that in my previous job I had to carry a pager, cell phone, and blackberry, None of which I need to carry today and I still make 85% of what I used to. I make more than people in similar positions in NJ.
The reality is Charlotte still have first time home buyers here and were talking single head of household making enough so the wife can stay home and take care of the kids. We never lost that. Job pay rates are very good depending on what line of work your in. Some are still working their way up.
I’m not trying to run salt into wounds however I can afford to be unemployed and still have enough left over to put money in the bank on unemployment. Try that on what is it $475.00 a week in NJ?
NC is not for everyone but it was for me and my family. I got my life back and have never been happier. Jersey was taking every dollar I made and if I put in an extra hour it found a way to take it. Government really screwed NJ up with its take more give less with no end in site.
Best of luck to everyone and remember your free to live anywhere in the country. Some places are just less costly than others. I’m sure some of you vacation here and basically that is what it is like for us down here year round. Disney is a 9 hour drive for us now. The outer banks about 3 hours. The choice is yours.
“3b Says:
January 29th, 2008 at 1:16 pm
#30 lisoosh: East Orange up until the late 60’s early 70’s was one of the most prestigious towns in NJ to live in. It started its rapid decline in the earlyy 70’s. Its now referred to by the local gangsters as Ill-town.”
I well believe it based on some of the properties there.
Same thing could happen to any “prestigious” or “top” town in New Jersey at any time. High end property snobs should always be careful about their assumptions.
On the snob line - is it me or are Bridgewater residents starting to get some Brigadoon ‘tude as well? I used to like that town but many of the newcomers are seriously starting to grate. Just a little too self satisfied in tone.
I’m still at 4.25% at my Apple Bank for Savings Grand Yield Direct account.
$49 Kettle -
“I also think that this will ulimatly tie into housing, because if you thin it is expensive to heat your home now, then just wait a few years as fuel prices continue to go up. heating expenses , at least in places like the northeast will start to become a factor in home purchase considerations.”
Perhaps global warming is a government conspiracy to hide their inability to get us off oil? Just heat up the world and no more need to heat houses?
Better develop more efficient solar to run all of those extra air conditioners though, or the plan might backfire.
Grim, are you gonna keep letting this clown advertise here?
Wait ’til his state has about 4 million former NJ residents. They’ll be a Peoples’ Republic in no time. Us NJers can’t help ourselves.
Can’t wait to hear somebody telling Elmer and Wilma they need to pay 12K in property taxes on their tar paper shack so that their three-chromosomed offspring who can’t even follow a NASCAR race get “the best schools possible”.
lisoosh (113)-
Bridgewater = Edison North.
Just a wrecked town. Corrupt, spending out of control, schools jammed to the gills, traffic. Attitude to burn.
The amazing thing is that I haven’t had a buyer in two years come to me looking to live there. It used to be that people wouldn’t accept any other town. The word is out.
#32 Empty homes are a lot of people from NY/NJ who cant sell their home in the north. They came in bought the home because well it was cheap as chips compared to the north. Figuring a quick sell up north that didnt happen so the houses down here sit open or as of late you see a lot of rentals from people who just cant sell where they are at.
I do expect a decline here in Charlotte area and last week I stated there is about a 1% decline recently but those priced in line are still selling. Those priced a little more are sitting a few months more.
I would guess we might lose 3-5% in the next year basically erasing last years increase but oh well. Were still a bargain compared to the north.
Clotpoll,
What Somerset and Hunterdon towns do you think are becoming more desirable?
Bridgewater always had attitude as thinking superior. It does have some nice areas.
Funny how they cant seem to get potholes fixed on 22 though.
Bound Brook :D
“The outer banks about 3 hours.”
Not to mention, Tobacco Road.
#106 kettle: posted the raw data from the st louis fed a couple of weeks ago showing that, and all i got was a comment from (3b i think) saying something along the lines of “pay no attention to the man behind the curtain”.
I did? Not sure what it was in reference to.
Bridgewater was nice once upon a time.
I kinda like Hillsborough. It’s nice if you work in NJ.
Clot,
You said on another thread that there was no spring bounce in ‘06 and ‘07, and you thought there wouldn’t be one this year, either?
But why?
If mortgage rates are going down, and at least some people are finally lowering prices …and with the REOs and foreclosures hitting the market …I would think this year’s spring market would be better vs last year or the year before.
Maybe not great, but better.
#125 Because:
1. It is going to be a whole lot more difficult to qualify fro a loan.
2. The sense of urgency is gone.
3. People will continue to wait and continue to get both lower prices and lower interest rates (just like in the ealy 90’s).
4. The psychology has dramatically changed.
5. Yes you can lose money in real estate.
6. Its no longer viewed as a road to riches scheme.
Well between the auction facilities, the higher CD rates, ATM fee increases and Citigroup’s limiting the amount of ATM withdrawals last month over a supposed “fraud concern” it really makes you wonder how thin of operating margins some of these banks have going right now.
What really makes me wonder is the dragging out of everything with the smoke and mirrors. What do they possibly see improving in the next few months? If anything the economy will be in worse shape than it is now. Just get it over with already.
Clot -
Nice to see my impression of Bridgewater wasn’t off course.
Funny. On another forum I troll through, it is one of those towns “everybody” recommends as good. It seems that once a place gets that reputation, it has jumped the shark.
Sync - I used to be looking in the Hillsborough area but it has become seriously overbuilt in the past few years with WAY too many McMansions and townhouses. It used to have a rural flavour which is disappearing, and 206 is a nightmare. It is also starting to turn up on the radar of the commuting crowd who keep trying to convince themselves that it won’t really take 2 hours each way to get to Manhattan.
Montgomery is the same, just with higher taxes, more attitude and bigger McMansions.
I would probably buy in either town at the right price, but they have changed in a way I’m not sure I like.
Concerning towns going downhill -
Just remember, once they hit bottom, and the gangs have had their way with the town, and prices drop to zero, if it is adjacent to anything useful, it will have its renaissance.
When Hoboken was home to Sinatra and featured in “On the Waterfront” it sure wasn’t the town of million dollar condos and yuppy bars.
GSMLS 2463912 on 1 1/4 acre property for 450K in the heart of Central Jersey.
Bound Brook ;) The picture of the rear yard looks nice….very well watered.
#129
Will this be the case with Camden, and its proximity to Philly? I’m not so sure…
I would be betting that NJ needs another 5%-10% drop before prices begin to stabilize. Your probably looking at another 2-3 years before things flatten out.
NJ needs to reach first time home buyers to start moving upward essentially and even with the current drop it isn’t reaching them.
Or
You need an area where the cost of housing is much higher and people see NJ as a bargain. Currently I think NY would disagree that NJ is a bargain so this is not going to happen better hope for fist time home buyers.
Anyone who purchased in the last couple of years is not a potential buyer so people doing the house to house looking to make money by buying a bigger house within or outside their budget just isn’t going to happen. Burned once by this and I don’t see them getting loans either.
Loans are going to be much tougher to get and you better have a good down payment. Were back to basics. 20% down and a solid job to boot.
Fuel costs increased which means everything is going up in price. It may be another $5.00 at the pump but its costing you for everything especially food costs.
Food for cattle hit a catastrophic road block so eating meat is going to go up a lot.
The sad part is when these prices go up rarely do they ever come down. Even if the cost comes down the big wigs like getting big profits and the prices will slowly move downward but will rarely return to normal. Anyone for $1.55 gas? Kiss $2.00 a gallon goodbye.
Taxes and Tolls are on the rise in NJ. This making NJ less desirable.
New construction with insane taxes is not desirable nor is anyone building new. The taxes are a deal breaker though so old looks better than new.
No amount of white collar people will tolerate what it costs to live in NJ. Most will probably live in NY.
Throw in stupid spending like $4.00 coffee’s when you barely making ends meet because most people are sheep.
SIMPLY PUT:
Erase the home increases for the last 5-6 years, hope you werent a part of it, and NJ will return to normal then you need to address the insane tax increases.
#128. As soon as they get away with charging $3.00 ATM Fees gone are the days of $2.00 ATM fees forever.
Maybe its time people learned to walk through the door of their own bank to take out money.
He also said the Senate rebate plan was more straight-forward, providing payments of $500 for individuals and $1,000 for couples filing jointly with no income cap for eligibility, and for families an additional $300 a child.
http://www.nytimes.com/2008/01/29/washington/30cnd-fiscal.html?_r=2&hp&oref=slogin&oref=slogin
>>
Shore guy. I wrote a letter to our 2 senators. I doubt if they even read it but here it is…
“SIMPLY PUT:”
Mitchell [132],
Maybe it’s simpler to just buy the crb?
also from above…
The Senate plan does not include the proposal by the House to increase the limits on “conforming” mortgages that can be bought by Fannie Mae and Freddie Mac, or insured by the Federal Housing Administration.
# 134 It is a good thing to do. Call the office and get the fax number. Send NOTHING to the Hill in the mail. Fax will get more attention than will e-mail. I would then follow up via mail to their local offices; even better, if close to you, walk in and have a nice conversation with whomever is in front and then drop off the letter (even better during a break when they are spending time at home).
By Sue Chang
Last update: 3:52 p.m. EST Jan. 29,
“SAN FRANCISCO (MarketWatch) - Federal investigators have opened criminal inquiries into 14 companies as part of a wide-ranging investigation of the subprime mortgage crisis, The Wall Street Journal reported on its Web site Tuesday. None of the 14 companies were named in the report.”
sync - Hey, Bound Brook has some lovely neighbourhoods up out of the flood zone, really nice homes there.
I had a customer who was the former Fire Chief, he was very proud of his town and would always point out that it is one of the most diverse he knew of. He would also point out that after Floyd, the “gentlemens” clubs were some of the biggest doners to rehabilitation and held many fundraisers to assist the town.:-)
Can’t knock community spirit.
“The Federal Bureau of Investigation is investigating 14 corporations for possible accounting fraud and other crimes related to the subprime lending crisis, officials said.”
“Neil Power, chief of the FBI’s economic crimes unit, wouldn’t identify the companies, though he said the cases involve “valuation-type stuff.” The probes include reviews of subprime lenders, housing developers and Wall Street banks that package loans as securities, he said.”
http://www.bloomberg.com/apps/news?pid=20601087&sid=aJAqV8MEwnes&refer=home
#139
Sure are some nice older homes in Bound Brook. My co-worker’s apartment was just burglarized last week, however.
Just to make something clear.
I’m the kind of person for whom the words “up and coming town” are a massive red flag and a signal to run the other way.
So the status conscious and upwardly mobile should probably ignore anything I have to say about any town in NJ.
Bound Brook,
It sounds like the title of a dodgey movie.
#141 - Hey, can’t have it all.
Hoboken’s closest peers are places like Camden and East St. Louis, former industrial towns across a river from major cities.
The biggest reason why Hoboken regenerated and these other towns haven’t is Hoboken’s proximity to economic growth.
New York City’s economy and population have grown dramatically during the past 30 years. Meanwhile, Philadelphia and St. Louis economies have stagnated and populations have declined.
Camden won’t bounce back unless Philadelphia finds aw ay to attract and retains a few hundred thousand smart, rich residents.
New York City
1980 7,071,639
1990 7,322,564
2000 8,008,288 (all-time high)
Philadelphia
1980 1,688,210
1990 1,585,577
2000 1,517,550
All-time high 2,071,605 in 1950
St. Louis
1980 452,801
1990 396,685
2000 348,189
All-time high 856,796 in 1950
Holy! the House moved H.R.5140 the Stimulus plan right past the Ways and Means Commitee through to a vote without any real debate in only two hours.
Things must be worse than some of us think, they did not even save it for after the primaries on Super Duper Tuesday.
Here is the Roll Call.
http://clerk.house.gov/evs/2008/roll025.xml
Ron paul voted NO, at least he has some balls.
3b, #126
Here’s my counterpoints:
#1.) But some people do qualify, and have been saving up serious down payments. This board seems to have a fair number of them.
#2.) True, but sometimes, you need to get on with your life, too.
#3.) I think this is the big one - if the Fed, as expected, lowers to 3% and to 2.5% by September, which seems to be what the futures markets are predicting at this point.
I think that, with mortgage rates falling, a fair number of people might perceive the spring/summer/fall as one last shot at getting an unnaturally low mortgage rate - a limited window of opportunity - because the Fed will have to raise rates again at some point after the election.
#4.) It sure has.
#5.) Yes, you can. But anyone who lived through the previous bust of the late 1980’s/early 1990’s knew that already. There was a lot of pain back then, too.
#6.) Not everyone caught the fever. I think there are a fair number of people who just want a good house as a house to live in.
pretorius Says:
‘Camden won’t bounce back unless Philadelphia finds aw ay to attract and retains a few hundred thousand smart, rich residents.”
I would have put it another way, but in essence I agree with you for once. Camden won’t have a revival until there is a da*n good reason for people to want to move there and that would probably be strong economic activity in Philly. Or some new amazing as yet undiscovered industry setting up in Jersey on the other side which happens to bring in lots of high income, educated workers who want some access to city life. At the moment, Philly just isn’t strong enough to carry Camden.
On the other hand, Hobokens reliance on NY, doesn’t bode well for the city if (well, actually when) Manhattan starts to suffer losses.
# 148 “On the other hand, Hobokens reliance on NY, doesn’t bode well for the city if (well, actually when) Manhattan starts to suffer losses.”
Still, if things go to hell in NYC, the best views of the city are from NJ and one can move out of the mess and still get to gaze at it from afar.
Sorry if somebody already posted but this was on Seeking Alpha:
“Won’t happen this time, Charlie says, because the mortgage market isn’t what it once was. “Since August, 90% of non-conforming loans loans have not gotten funded. That translates — based upon quarterly federal reserve analysis of equity (cash) extraction from homes via cash over mortgage at sale, cash out from refi’s and home equity loans — into about $20 billion less per month going to the economy. That is equal to about 4% of the $430 billion monthly after tax take home pay of all 140 million or so on payrolls.””
http://seekingalpha.com/article/62097-maybe-investors-should-fight-the-fed
Bob, this was a hoot:
“Neil Power, chief of the FBI’s economic crimes unit, wouldn’t identify the companies, though he said the cases involve “valuation-type stuff.”
One of my relatives works for the FBI. He always puts “stuff” at the end of descriptors. He shrugs when he says the word “stuff.” It must be a Virginia thang.
Going to a ball game: Doing baseball type stuff.
Things purchased anywhere but a mega mall: Walmart-type stuff
Lottery tickets: Gift type stuff
Fitch downgraded 37,541 bonds insured by SCA’s subsidiary, XL Capital (nyse: XL - news - people ) Assurance Ltd. The bonds include debt floated by such local government entities as the Bernards Township Board of Education in New Jersey, the Comanche County Consolidated Hospital District in Texas and the Wayne County Public Library in Ohio.
http://www.forbes.com/feeds/ap/2008/01/29/ap4588380.html
Quote of the day, from Tom Kean, Bloomberg radio:
“Today we talk about Shiller’s grim housing statistics”
145
Camden will never bounce back, ever, ever, ever.
Philly can hardly stay afloat.
Depending upon where you work, you can get a decent modern Colonial in Greenwich Township (Stewartsville) or Lopatcong in Warren County for under 450K. Washington model on short sale now for $308K. Easy access to Rte 78 & Rte 57. Taxes relatively reasonable. Lot’s of stores.
If you are considering Boundbrook, stay above Rte 28. Friends on Voessler avenue are O.K., not in flooding. Lot’s of illegals though. Their neighbors just got deported to Costa Rica by INS.
Dunellen, next to Boundbrook, has had people I know migrating to crowded Bridgewater.
McGreevy is in Historic Plainfield.
Has anyone considered this scenario? Homeowner bought at the peak of the house bubble. They see that housing prices are plunging and have an ARM or some other crappy mortgage. So, they refinance into a 30yr fixed at a lower rate and lower their monthly payment. Now all they need to do is wait until the market bottoms, rent out their existing home and purchase home#2 and ride that back up to cancel out the losses of Home#1.
How could they cover all costs for “as long as it takes?” The refi savings wouldn’t help much if rent is still only half the mortgage payment.
pret (119)-
I thought about this for two hours.
I’d have to say none. We’re really at one year of standing inventory and growing. Why anyone wants to live anywhere in NJ frankly astounds me. The only people I’m dealing with on the buy side are practically forced to live here because of job or family. The people I know who aren’t tied to the community are either gone…or getting out ASAP.
Confused #155
Dunellen, next to Boundbrook, has had people I know migrating to crowded Bridgewater.
Dunellen is changing rapidly. Ethnically. As is Bound Brook and Pis cat away. Nestled right in between BB, Dunellen and Pway is Middlesex Boro, which appears (so far) to be magically untouched by it all. It’s the strangest thing.
Clotpoll,
Seems like growth drivers of that area were big companies like AT&T and Merck. But the best days of these companies are behind them, and I guess the best days for Hunterdon and Somerset are in the past too.
scribe (125)-
They could lower mortgage rates to 1%. It wouldn’t matter. Rates aren’t the problem; affordability is.
The toxic money has all dried up, and now a buyer needs a DP, documentable income and decent credit. Besides, look at all the people who’ve been defaulting at the teaser rate on properties bought in the last 1-2 years for just a few dollars more a month than those homes would cost now.
Lower mortgage rates might mean something if we were coming off years of 10-11% vig, but rates have been low- and stayed low- through this whole downturn. Besides, you can now see rates are going lower still…and lenders are becoming less and less willing to lend. They’re hoarding cash, trying to Band-Aid their crippled, bleeding balance sheets. This credit seizure will probably turn into a multi-year phenomenon.
Declining rates, coupled with increasing lender reticence in extending credit, are also the first signs of a deflationary credit crisis. I expect this to worsen throughout ‘08. We are probably weeks away from the first HB and bank to go belly-up, as well as a good, old-fashioned, Northern Rock-style bank run (I never thought I would be typing those words).
Incomes still don’t match the inflated prices being asked, and funny money isn’t available to bridge the income/price gap. And don’t forget, Corzine and co. can’t wait to jack your tax bill to yet another soul-crushing plateau. The only thing that can/will give is PRICE. Until we see another 20% or so slashed-and-burned, expect this water torture to continue.
Look at the REO out there. For the most part, it’s as mispriced as Fred & Ethel’s dank, cabbage-smelling POS. A lot of the REO has also had time for its own cabbage aromas- and other, more serious problems- to fester into really major defects. The banks don’t get it, either. They’re all fumbling around in the dark, looking for a clue, hoping for a sucker. There are none to be found. The buyer pool breaks along the lines of: a) clueless and tapped-out, or b) saavy and sitting on dry powder. Where the twain meets? Neither group can, or will, pull the trigger right now.
lisoosh (128)-
Hillsborough blows.
Unless you like traffic, crowded stores and tapped-out neighbors.
I’m thinking about it but golly gee gosh darn, those sellers sure are pesky. Maybe they’ll like us and take 5K less?
http://web.archive.org/web/19961030130550/www.bobdevlin.com/westlisc.html
Shore (137)-
I’d like to hand Lautenberg or Menendez a letter…
clotpoll [161],
wow… that’s all I can say. Something’s gotta give.
lisoosh (139)-
“Hey, Bound Brook has some lovely neighbourhoods up out of the flood zone, really nice homes there.”
Yeah, the houses are almost worth 325K…and the tax bill will run 11-12K (this year).
The RE play du jour there is to buy a dilapidated floodzone multi-family for around 200-225K, and fill it with 27 illegals, each paying $900 or so a month (cash). Talk about cash flow!
confused (155)-
Dunellen = Dungellen
this is for boyaahhh bob.
MOTIVATED DRIVEN AND -HUNGRY- REAL ESTATE PROFESSINAL WANTED (emphasis on HUNGRY!)
http://miami.craigslist.org/rfs/556181272.html
:)
Clot, #161
Thank you.
Think (156)-
Think some more. A refi into a 30 fixed doesn’t automatically mean the place will cash flow positive on the rental. Checked the rental market lately? There are about a million vacant units out there that won’t sell…and the owners are offering them for ever-decreasing rents.
If your proposal could work, it’d be working right now all over the US. It isn’t.
Clot,
Tousa filed, 13th largest US homebuilder.
Yeah, but Tousa trades on the pink sheets. I’m looking for a biggie (my bets are on Hovnanian or Technical Olympic) to spit the bit.
hov is next. hanging on by a ,
some of them may be having problems arranging the BK finance
Tousa=Technical Olymic?
grim: do you know how those hov sales are going in the w.paterson/clifton complex.
what do you hear?
The article on the NJ Judge retiring to Florida with the $118K Pension underscores the difficulty Public Sector has affording NJ retirement.
NY State Senate Seat
http://www.nysun.com/article/70327
I did a little research on Dunellen. The town has a master plan for a downtown rebirth. It’s still a dump though, in spite of the train station and easy NYC access.
It’ll be interesting to see how the housing market and tax situations affect the downtown rebirths that seemed to gather steam over the last few years. New Brunswick has stalled - the only affordable condos are in war zones or on the desolate outskirts. Going forward where will New Brunswick, Somerville, Dunellen, Plainfield, Rahway, Perth Amboy, Asbury Park, Elizabeth, etc. get the money to develop downtowns? If the yuppies who were supposed to magically appear to snap up $350,000 condos fail to show, will developers cancel projects? Already a condo project in downtown Cranford (a nice town) changed to rentals (that pesky r-word). Without state and private money, the NJ towns counting on rebirth will need to scale back their dreams.
MLS Number: 2435039 Nice Short Sale in Ogdensburg (Sussex) less the $300K.
176…………Leaving NJ with your pension.Why would you stay in NJ….pay huge taxes….endure crappy weather…when in fact you have dedicated 20 plus years of your life to the state? You are a bit *confused* yes?
Washington Avenue was a nice short cut through Dunellen from Rte 22, to get to AT&T in Piscataway. Pleasant Drive.
Confused 180 Thats my neck of the woods,you don’t want to live there.That is unless you are really into nascar or married to your 1st cousin.
Essex Says:
January 29th, 2008 at 9:04 pm
176…………Leaving NJ with your pension.Why would you stay in NJ….pay huge taxes….endure crappy weather…when in fact you have dedicated 20 plus years of your life to the state? You are a bit *confused* yes?
177 not 176. I sympathize with Public Retirees not able to afford NJ. Corzine should consider doing like NY, Zero Tax on Public Pensions, just tax the Private Pensions. After all we must be fair.
Corzine is a crook.
Toll increase is a terrible idea.
Best to vote with your feet, and move out.
SAS
183. Mike
There actually are some very nice people in Ogdensburg, who moved there basically because they were priced out of other areas like Denville.
btw…
for you pension people… be on the lookout for the word “privatization”.
Its coming…
SAS
“I thought about this for two hours.”
Clot [158],
Daydreaming for the first 119 minutes?
grim (175)-
Holy sh#t. I never heard Technical Olympic referred to by an acronym. I stand corrected; they are one and the same.
Duh.
let me correct myself:
State pension people!
see post 186.
SAS
Has Barton been blogging?
Barton Biggs has some offbeat advice for the rich: Insure yourself against war and disaster by buying a remote farm or ranch and stocking it with “seed, fertilizer, canned food, wine, medicine, clothes, etc.”
The “etc.” must mean guns.
“A few rounds over the approaching brigands’ heads would probably be a compelling persuader that there are easier farms to pillage,” he writes in his new book, “Wealth, War and Wisdom.”
“Mankind endures “an episode of great wealth destruction” at least once every century, Biggs reminds us. So the wealthy should prepare to ride out a disaster, be it a tsunami, a market meltdown or Islamic terrorists with a dirty bomb.”
http://www.bloomberg.com/apps/news?pid=20601088&sid=aImBVle3OMyo&refer=home
jmac #179
I did a little research on Dunellen. The town has a master plan for a downtown rebirth. It’s still a dump though, in spite of the train station and easy NYC access.
Dunellen looks old and ratty but it’s not unsafe. The schools are ok, not horrible like Plainfield. On a small budget, it’s still a decent place to raise a family. JMHO.
Confused 185 I’m sure there are some nice folks from down below (as they are called by the locals).But overall that town isn’t
considered a good town by the people up here.I know it very well & wouldn’t buy there.If you don’t have kids I guess its ok
no crime or gangs just red necks.Joe six pack in spades.Definately not the upper crust by a long shot.
What are people’s opinions of Westfield? We moved to Westfield in 2004 and really like it. We can walk to downtown and (almost) live without a car. I console myself with the thought that it’s somewhat insulated from deflation. In any case we plan to stay in the house for a long time.
From MarketWatch:
FBI focusing on 14 companies in mortgage probe
The Federal Bureau of Investigation is targeting 14 companies as part of a broad probe into the subprime mortgage meltdown, a spokesman said on Tuesday.
Agents are looking into allegations of fraud in several stages of the mortgage securitization process, in which home loans are packaged up by investment banks and sold as securities to institutional investors, Brian Hale, an FBI spokesman explained. He declined to name the companies being investigated.
(7) Syncmaster
I lived in Oregon for 21 years. We thought of Portland and Seattle as the “business centers” for the Pacific Northwest. Nike for the Portland Area and Seattle has Costco (Richland WA), Starbucks, and Microsoft. Not much new contruction.
The price drop is still bound to hit them sooner or later.
194. Steve
Lord & Taylor is nice. Problem with Union County is taxes. Towns like Summit, Westfield, New Providence, Berkeley Heights, Springfield and Cranford are the revenue source for the rest of Union county. A few years ago New Providence & Berkeley Heights Town Counsels looked into possibility of breaking away and joining Morris County. Can’t be done without permission. Main complaint my friends in Westfield have are taxes and traffic.
194. Steve
Actually, traffic is a growing problem in all of those towns. Mt Laurel opened the door for high density housing which overburdens a lot of the infrastructure.
It may be off the beaten path by New York City standards, but officials at the Port Authority are banking on the Hudson Valley’s Stewart International Airport having a bright future.
…
The Port Authority took over the upstate airport in November and said it would spend 500 million on it over the next 10 years.
The Port Authority is converting the airport into what it hopes will be a state-of-the-art facility that attracts millions of travelers a year and eases some of the congestion at the metro area’s three major airports.
Port Authority officials say Stewart International can also serve as a hub for economic growth in the Hudson Valley.
http://www.wcax.com/Global/story.asp?S=7789243&nav=menu183_2
More NJ waste:
The Edison Board of Education last night approved a contract that gave John DiMuzio a $39,725 raise and officially names him acting superintendent of the township’s school system.
…
The board’s action last night raised DiMuzio’s salary from $130,275 to $170,000 a year, effective today.
…
The move angered some residents.
“We’re throwing away money,” said Terence Smith, who questioned why the board increased Di Muzio’s salary.
Board President David Dickin son said DiMuzio’s salary was increased “because of the position he holds and the amount of work he’s expected to do.”
http://www.nj.com/news/ledger/middlesex/index.ssf?/base/news-3/1201584949136880.xml&coll=1
Clot - Wow, you’re really down on everything in the area aren’t you?
200. syncmaster
The board voted Nov. 19 to place Superintendent Carol Toth on paid administrative leave until June 2010, when her contract expires. At that same meeting, the panel named DiMuzio, who was director of personnel, acting superintendent.
It’s ashame that the board is paying the existing Superintendent Carol Toth on paid administrative leave until June 2010. Would have been nice if they could at least have gotten her to cut the grass until June 2010, or better yet do DiNuzio’s job in personnel.
lisoosh #201, At times I wonder if irrational exuberance has merely been replaced by irrational pessimism.
Confused #202, I agree.
lisoosh (201)-
Would you recommend NJ to any (non-millionaire) friend of yours who doesn’t live here?
My listing appointments are short and sweet. I advise that prospects get out as fast as they can. If they’re dragging their feet, I ask them what part of hemmorhaging money daily is the most fun.
re: all the posts about south & bound brook, piscataway, dunellen, & middlesex not being touched; what exactly, you white bread a$$holes is wrong with spanish? next thing you know you’ll be on po’ ol’ franklin! look at the tax rates vs. effective rates!
Look at the working middle class boomers renting out their places to them! Criticize them!
Wonder Bread bitchin’ about their parents retirement plans is what that is!
grim 205
sync (203)-
What’s irrational about anything I’ve stated in this thread?
I help people buy and sell RE every day all over Central NJ. I see the lis pendens, sheriff sale and tax lien postings every single day. I watch the young, the old and the in-between taxed further into oblivion every year.
When an average couple starts a family, the only way they can usually remain in NJ is to completely sacrifice their quality of life. The welfare state is bleeding us by a death of a thousand cuts. I never thought I’d agree with the Jersey Guys on 101.5, but I’ve really come to believe that Corzine et al really have the destruction of the middle class as their goal.
There are nice people everywhere. It is just that some areas have many bad people also.
And to top it all off, I just found out I can’t send my son to school on his birthday with one f-ing cupcake for him and each of his friends. I guess the tobacco lawyers need a new avenue for generating fees, and food will be the next battleground. I swear, I wish I could light 7 cigarettes at once, walk into school, and blow a big cloud of smoke right in the face of the NPR-addled Bolsheviks who can’t manage to function within a budget but have no problem whatsoever making rules about cupcakes.
Little by little, the gubmint steals a slice of freedom here, a choice there…all of it under the guise of “helping” us.
We the sheeple. Live and in color.
Bell Biv Devoe (207)-
I like the people here. I just don’t like what happens to the ones who get elected to office.
208. Clotpoll
Actually I did send Corzine a suggestion in July 2007 that he implement a FAT Tax at $10/lb for overweight Sheeple. I allowed an exclusion for those with a Medical problem causing it. Obesity is the new Sin Frontier. I thought it would compliment his Cigarette & Liquor Tax Initiatives. Maybe the Cup Cake Ban is the start. I also suggested this week he look at NY’s new Sin Tax on Marijuana, lest he fall behind the curve. Especially after today’s medical report that 1 joint is worse then 20 butts.
confused (210)-
Being a small business owner, I’ve seen firsthand how traditional insurance costs just drain the life out of companies. It’s made me an advocate for universal healthcare. Yes, it would be expensive, but it would also free even more capital that is simply wasted right now on feeding the insurance beast. I’ve also come around to the idea that healthcare is not a privilege, but a human right.
That being said, any universal healthcare system that is implemented in the US needs to come with a heavy dose of prevention and personal responsibility. I think the idea of taxing people who can’t stop jamming crap in their pie holes is perfectly fine. Same goes for other forms of self-abuse that lead to ugly, protracted, expensive deaths.
However, we’re nowhere near that day, so until such time, all the cupcake rules and other nonsense just feel to me like little freedoms being washed down the drain.
Clotpoll Says:
January 29th, 2008 at 11:24 pm
lisoosh (201)-
“Would you recommend NJ to any (non-millionaire) friend of yours who doesn’t live here?”
That’s a hard one. Partly because my perspective is international. The UK is in many ways home, but has it’s own standard of living issues, and as you know, the housing bubble is even worse there. It is my retirement place though.
Israel is even worse than here for taxes, costs and has a low standard of living plus you can get blown up so there are plenty of negatives there too.
I’m more stressed here than in the UK, have a better standard of living than in Israel. Both other countries have universal health though and that is a big plus to me - it takes a load off you might say.
As for the US - I am a West Coast kind of personality BUT it is much further from family which is a negative. Plus California is completely f’d up. New England is appealing but the cold not so much. South is full of bible thumpers, couldn’t deal with that. Midwest…..no, just to squeaky for me. Texas, apart from Austin, not a chance in h*ll, same goes for Florida. The desert has some appeal, but has the same issue as the West Coast.
So…. its suffer the distance or put up with NJ, unless you can suggest someplace suitable - East Coast, not too cold, not too humid, reasonably cosmopolitan, within stiking distance of a Rabbi so my kids can get Bar Mitzvah’d. And with employment.
I’ve thought about moving, even with all of the headaches and transition, but am stumped about where to go frankly.
Lazy.
All of you.
What kind of area is North Brunswick considered to be?
Is anyone familiar with the Renaissance subdivision there…and what do you think of the town house / single family prices? There should be a train station coming in the next 3 years supposedly so how will that affect the property prices there?
Right now, a 2500 sq ft single family house (with barely a back yard), 4 br, built in early 2000, is around the 500 K range, which it was about 3 years ago as well.
What would be a realistic amount for this kind of property — given the supposed growth of the city?
212. Clotpoll
You may well be right as long as Universal Healtcare doesn’t remove other personal rights. My biggest concern is in the push to preventative WellCare, Big Pharma has come up with a lot of Voodoo Diseases and Treatments. I could very well see this Dysfunctional Government requiring Annual Physicals and Mandatory Voodoo Treatment, without regard to side effects.
215 rabs
North Brunswick is not considered one of the nicer towns around there, but if you don’t have kids, maybe.
E. Brunswick is nicer, S. Brunswick, Plainsboro.
I wouldn’t count on a train station, but if it’s true that might be a boost, although Jersey Avenue is pretty close anyway, so who knows how much of a boost.
212 universal healthcare
Universal healthcare would boost the economy. If companies that don’t want to be there could get out of the healthcare business? If entrepreneurs could go after their ideas without being chained to their corp jobs?
#194 steve: it’s somewhat insulated from deflation.
No area is insulated from deflation, NONE,