Preliminary February sales and inventory data for Northern New Jersey is in. Please note that this data is subject to revision.
Due to the low volume of sales in February, the lower bound of all graphs had to be adjusted downwards.
The first graph plots the unadjusted sales data (closed sales) for the counties listed. Please note the lower bound of the graph, it is set to 1000 500, not to zero. I do this to emphasize the seasonal nature of the Northern NJ market.
(click to enlarge)
The second graph is another view at the sales data for the full year. Please note that this graph does cross at zero.
(click to enlarge)
The third graph displays only February sales, 2000 to 2008 YOY.
(click to enlarge)
The fourth graph displays an overlay of Sales and Inventory from 2003 to 2007.
(click to enlarge)
The last graph displays the year over year change in inventory on a month by month basis.
(click to enlarge)
Closed sales continued to deteriorate in February, reaching lows that haven’t been seen for quite some time. I don’t have sales volume prior to 2000, so unfortunately I can’t put a date to the volume. However, what is clear is that we’ve fallen well through the 1,000 mark, causing me to readjust the scales on a number of graphs.
Sales fell 38% year over year in Febuary, from 1445 in Febuary 2007 to 889 in Febuary 2008.
Given that February is the seasonal low for closed sales, we will undoubtedly see sales begin their yearly march (no pun intended) towards the seasonal peaks in the summer. As always the normal seasonal trends will be misinterpreted as a recovery, look for plenty of bottom calls in the near future.
Inventory continues to increase, February inventory increased at a 5.4% YOY rate, up from 4.3% in January. Judging from the graph it appears that the YOY rate of increase is beginning to accelerate again. If the trend continues we will undoubtedly be setting new inventory records this summer.
(All figures are based on GSMLS)
From the Asbury Park Press:
Waiting for a thaw
Bradley Beach resident Susan Stone’s home on Brinley Avenue is just over one block away from the beach.
And the six-bedroom house, which also has two rental apartments out back and a two-car garage, has been on the market since early last month, priced at $989,900.
“If you are going to sell a beach property, now is the time to do it,” Stone said. She and her husband, Tom Gavin, are looking for a house in the Interlaken area.
…
The spring selling season is almost upon us. As the weather warms, it’s an important time for home sales.
But one real-estate expert says New Jersey’s home market hasn’t started the year well, a warning sign of a tough spring ahead.
“The pace of New Jersey home sales sank to a four-year low in January, raising serious questions about what’s ahead for the spring housing market,” the Otteau Valuation Group, an East Brunswick real estate consulting firm, stated in a report last week.
…
In New Jersey, home sales fell by 30 percent in January over the same month in 2007, according to Otteau. Sales at the Jersey Shore outperformed the state, but still fell by 24 percent in Monmouth County and 26 percent in Ocean County, the firm states.
“Sales are running at very weak levels,” said Jeffrey Otteau, the company’s president. “Clearly what we have here is that the housing market continues to be in a stall.”
…
“Buyers are still out there,” said Chris Schlueter, president of the Ocean County Board of Realtors and a sales associate at Re/Max at Barnegat Bay in Toms River. “The calls are still coming in to a lot of places. They key to the market remaining strong is that as (sellers) become more realistic about the current value of their home, I think the market will retain its strength.”
Indeed, said Mark Kotzas, broker and owner at Crossroads Realty, which has 14 offices in Monmouth and Ocean counties, properties that are priced correctly are seeing activity.
From NYT:
http://www.nytimes.com/2008/03/02/realestate/02njzo.html?ref=realestate
Mike,
Here are the Sussex Numbers
Febuary Sales
2000 – 150
2001 – 137
2002 – 162
2003 – 147
2004 – 170
2005 – 121
2006 – 140
2007 – 97
2008 – 68
Re: (2)
Very cheap-looking house in Bradley Beach. Tacky and cheesy for $989,900?!!! Gimme a break. Better deals in Avon.
BTW-I closed on a condo in Asbury Park last week.
Also keep in mind that no leap year adjustment was done to the 2008 data.
#2 “If you are going to sell a beach property, now is the time to do it,” Stone said. She and her husband, Tom Gavin, are looking for a house in the Interlaken area.
Actually march 05 was the time to sell it. We have run out of fools.
Investing in apartment buildings.
From IBD:
http://www.investors.com/editorial/IBDArticles.asp?artsec=27&issue=20080228
These numbers are SICK! I am sicked.
grim: caption fix?
“The third graph displays only January sales, 2000 to 2008 YOY”
Thanks
Well at least that little purple dot isn’t looking so lonely any more.
From the Home News Tribune:
Moving companies confirm N.J. exodus
JAMES W. HUGHES and JOSEPH J. SENECA
Alan Greenspan, former chairman of the Federal Reserve Board, often scrutinized obscure data sources for insightful clues on the state of the U.S. economy. Translating this approach to New Jersey, it is useful to look at household movement/shipment data provided by United Van Lines and Mayflower Transit in order to supplement formal interstate migration data as measured by the U.S. Bureau of the Census.
Census statistics show that the numbers of households and individuals leaving New Jersey for the rest of the United States have increased in recent years, although our total population continued to grow because of births and net immigration from abroad. Between 2000 and 2007, approximately 377,000 more people moved out of New Jersey to the rest of the country than moved into New Jersey from the rest of the country. We ranked fourth among the 50 states and the District of Columbia in net migration losses during this seven-year period.
Despite these losses, our total population growth, when also accounting for births, deaths, and international immigration, totaled 272,000 people between 2000 and 2007, although most of the growth accrued in the earlier years of this period.
Data from two moving companies provide “on the ground” snapshot certifications of the more comprehensive Census Bureau data. First is the annual interstate “migration study” of United Van Lines, the nation’s largest carrier. Its report tracks the states where its customers moved from and moved to. New Jersey was the third-ranking “high outbound” state in the survey. Of the total United Van Lines’ interstate movements that took place in New Jersey in 2007, 61 percent were outbound compared to 39 percent inbound.
The Garden State ranked third in outbound percentage behind economically challenged Michigan (67.8 percent outbound), which ranked No. 1. Michigan has been devastated by a collapsing industrial/automobile economy. We also trailed weather-challenged North Dakota (67.2 percent outbound). Second-ranking North Dakota has the lowest average annual temperature (42.2 degrees) in the lower 48 states. In contrast, New Jersey’s weather has been mild and free of extremes, and its economy had been growing modestly, yet the outflow continued apace.
Confirming this general pattern of high outbound movements from New Jersey is the 2007 Mayflower Transit Customer Relocation Study, a second set of household movement data. In 2007, Mayflower Transit found that 59.9 percent of its New Jersey moves were outbound, just below the 61 percent outbound share of United Van Lines. Thus, the two companies’ data on New Jersey migration are highly consistent not only with each other, but also with the Census Bureau migration estimates.
In addition, according to the United Van Lines study, North Carolina was the No. 1 “high inbound” state; 61.6 percent of its household goods movements were inbound, a reflection of its growing “demographic might.” In 2000, New Jersey’s resident population (8.4 million persons) was approximately 400,000 persons larger than North Carolina’s (8 million persons). By 2007, North Carolina’s resident population (9.1 million persons) was approximately 400,000 persons larger than New Jersey’s (8.7 million persons). This represents a swing of 800,000 people in the two states’ relative position in a brief seven-year period, a remarkable demographic shift.
In any case, the two moving companies have a good customer in New Jersey, although they have to keep shipping empty moving vans into the state in order to move New Jerseyans out. This is just the opposite of the growing stacks of empty cargo containers in the Port Newark area, where far more cargo containers with goods flow into New Jersey than flow out. Thus, our cargo movements have an interesting lack of symmetry with our household goods movements.
#13 We could put those cargo containers on flatbed trucks and use them to move people out of NJ. 2 birds one stone.
From the Record:
Betting the house
Kevin and Jean Petterson of Rutherford fell behind on their mortgage payments in mid-2005 after Kevin, a truck driver, broke his ankle and was unable to work for several months.
In 2006, facing foreclosure, the couple got a letter from a Scotch Plains company, Elite Financial Solutions, that offered to help “stop the foreclosure process!” It promised “No gimmicks or tricks.”
But Kevin Petterson, 41, says the company left his family worse off than before — in deeper debt and in danger of losing their small Cape Cod.
“I’m going to have to go Chapter 7 [bankruptcy],” Petterson said.
The Pettersons’ story spotlights a new player in the housing bust — foreclosure “rescue” companies, which find distressed homeowners through public records. Some of these companies have been accused of “equity stripping” — taking whatever equity these desperate people have in their homes.
“Homes are literally being stolen from their owners all over the country,” said a June 2005 report called “Dreams Foreclosed” by the National Consumer Law Center.
This YOY drop along with contraction of the job market will make it a particularly painful year for the RE market.
It would be interesting to compare 2008 numbers with 1990-1994.
ChiFi (9)-
Much as I was yesterday, I am sicked once again.
There appears to be little pant-up demand.
lisoosh (12)
Is this what “System of a Down” means?
http://www.systemofadown.com/
Re 13
I assume the data from the moving companies does not take into account the 1/2 or so illegal aliens who have moved into NJ to replace those who are on the radar and fall into the census stats and use moving companies. The population is not decreasing, what is happening is “white flight”.
1/2 million
Sean,
So are you saying that these, at your count 1/2 million illegals are buying homes?
Or are you just expressing an opinion on illegals in NJ?
I’ve heard that the population of illegals are actually on the decline as jobs are dwindling.
Rich
A lot of listing expired and the end of February, I see a race to re-list them this month.
i don’t think illegals will qualify anymore
Two observations:
We’ve hit bottom
All bad news is actually good news for McCain
/tim russert.
2:
A thumbnail view:
Not too long ago, like in late ’06, early ’07, there was nothing below the 400ks on LBI. Now there are tons of smaller condos in the twos and threes. I think the runners are massed at the starting gate for a race to the bottom. It may take longer for the downturn to reach the seasonal/shore communities, but my gut says it’ll hit hard and last longer.
Monmouth county closings for February according to Monmouth county MLS
2004- 312
2005- 304
2006- 273
2007- 300
2008- 179
I am saying the citizens are leaving this state with their money, businesses and jobs in droves and are being replaced in droves by both illegal and legal immigrants.
Sean,
do you think immigrants can support house prices? considering some of the immigrants are working in construction and other jobs related to the housing downturn they might stop coming to NJ and the ones here start leaving w/ white flight
Sean,
Ahhh, legals too.
Causing white flight.
Interesting.
Doesn’t answer the question, but instead creates more.
When are you leaving? Soon?
Now if the businesses and jobs are leaving, why are the immigrants coming here?
Are they starting new businesses and jobs? And if so, is this a bad or good thing?
And once again, what is the impact on housing?
Rich
from bankrate.com, on re-listings:
http://www.bankrate.com/brm/news/realestateadviser/20080302_MLS_DOM_a1.asp
Re: impact
Take a look at the closing hospitals, the high tax burden and the outstanding liabilites.
I do not believe the the demographic switch to neary 1 in 5 foreign born in NJ illegal and legal are going to fix these issues, but exacerbate them as the convoy of mov ing trucks takes the businesses and the dollars they ring up to other states.
More needs to be done to retain the high earners or NJ will head into a terminal decline, and the aging housing stock will decline with it.
Some anecdotal evidence to support the out flux of talented, tax paying professionals.
We know two couples that have left NJ in 2008 alone. One couple are both attorneys, who moved to New Mexico because the wife wanted to open a catering business but it was almost impossible to do successfully in NJ. It was a tough decision for them as they both grew up in NJ. They were renting a dingy place in Montclair and have since bought a gorgeous house on a golf course near Santa Fe (husband is a huge golfer, this was part of the reason to move as well). Another couple consisted of a PhD scientist (working in Big Pharma) and a nurse, they moved to Austin. Neither were from NJ and they hated it here, they were so miserable that they would have sold their condo for a steep loss to get out. They got lucky and sold it to some sucker in December for about what they paid for it.
I think there will be a huge out flux of young professionals from NJ in the years to come. Many get drawn here out of college by good job opportunities, but as they settle down and look to raise families and buy property, they realize that NJ is a raw deal. Also, once they grow up and realize that NJ has declared war on their incomes and standard of living in order to support the ever expanding welfare state, the rate of out flux will increase even more.
People bring up white flight likes it is a bad thing. Do people realize that the racial mix of the population of the US is changing? This is much more pronounced on the coasts and within major cities. It’s not necessarily white flight, but the encroachment of other ethnicities into the fabric of America. Just like there was a large migration into America in the past, it still continues. However, following 9/11 probably less so do to tighter immigration laws. There may be some whites leaving to other areas, even in the more “white areas” there are increasing amounts of other ethnicities. It’s been the foundation of America, people leaving their countries to find better opportunities. If we close the doors, eventually we will become like France or Japan. Countries, whose best years are behind them. Let’s hope for our children’s sake this recent increase in anti-immigration is a temporary phenomenon.
Chi [9], Clot [18],
You’re sicked? How the hell do you think I feel? My point guard scores 46 and we’re up by 18, early 2nd half. Final? We lose by 10. I feel your pain.
I just love these charts. How about the 4th graph? A quadruple bottom, sliced like a knife thru butter. If thus was a chart of the S&P’s there would be a crash. Every hedgie would be selling as this 5 year bottom/support was pummelled. The RE crash will follow. Unfortunately, it it’s not lightning quick, followed by a V reversal. It just plods. Drip, drip, drip.
Can BIA make a curtain call and interpret graph # 4. Please, it will help sooth my pain from yesterday.
I’m an NJ native and I know a lot of people from other states at my job in big pharma. Sticker shock does not even begin to describe what they think, and one by one, they all leave and choose to raide their families elsewhere. These are mostly PhD level scientists with young children, the kind of people who form the backbone of the tax base, and they’re leaving.
Just an observation about immigration: I’m not sure the immigrants coming in to NJ have any plans to stay. In the old days, you left your home country and never looked back because travel and overseas phone calls were prohibitively expensive. Air travel for everyone and cheaper telecom means it’s possible to keep those ties going across thousands of miles. I get the sense that most recent immigrants plan to go back once they have enough money saved to live large in their home countries.
BC (36)-
More meat in the grinder. I think the Heels are rounding into form.
(35)
Come to Edison, where I live… Have a good look around, and tell me that immigration and white flight is a good thing. This place is a hodge-podge disaster!
Looks like the sub 1000 sales came much earlier than expected.
From the year end prediction thread:
dreamtheaterr Says:
December 31st, 2007 at 12:28 pm
No WAGs by me; I am hopeless at it. My only guess is that winter 2008 will see NJ monthly home sales fall below the 1,000 mark.
Randy (40) –
Edison would be a hodge-podge disaster no matter who lived there! It’s off my list of places to buy because I don’t feel like wasting an entire Saturday in traffic as I get a haircut and pick up light bulbs. The price to quality of life ratio is seriously out of whack.
#5 “BTW-I closed on a condo in Asbury Park last week.”
Was it in one of the new bacch/lakefront buildings, an older highrise, or one of the newer small conversions?
I just got a chance to pick up the paper and in the last 15 minutes this is what I read:
1) River Vale home assessments double (but hey… it’s prestigous Bergen County)
2) Starting today, tolls, bus and PATH fares increase by 33%
3) Increases in pensions, salaries and health care will result in a (ahem…) “special resolution” to increase property taxes on Morris County residents.
4) Senators Menendez and Lautenberg voted “YES” on a bill to bailout subprime mortgages.
5) Muhlenberg Hospital can’t afford to keep its doors open and is closing.
I can’t wait to turn the page.
When it comes to census data, one needs to bear in mind that the Census Bureau does not care if one is in the country legally or illegally. They are charged with counting (and, in between decennial counts, estimating) population in a given area. Both the NJ and NC numbers should consider the illegal populations of each state.
Randy,
Exactly as jmac said, it’s probably because Edison is already going down the toilet. Immigrants moving in is not a cause, but a symptom of the decline. Wealthy/professional immigrants move into towns like Short Hills and it does not bring down the town.
Yet with all the problems homeowners still are not cutting prices. I am finally, seeing nice homes come to market and sit. In the past only pos houses sat for more than a month. But they all sound like a broken record, couples bought between 1998 and 2003 and dumped 200K into fancy renovations, they all seem to think that money dumped in is returned at 120% just like TV and by knocking 50K off peak price buyers will come. The buyers have a strike and with good reason. A dual income couple can save 3K a month towards their downpayment if they are in a cheap starter or rental and houses are falling 3k a month. Each month you have 6K more towards the downpayment. What is the incentive to jump in? This is not 2004 when even if you could save 3K a month towards your downpayment what was the point, houses rose 5K each month, might as well hold your nose and dive in on a zero down teaser.
Even more depressing when a lot of expensive homes are being sold my desparate people who have a noose around their neck, hardly a good advertisement for the buyer. Heck it is like buying a used car and when your ask the owner why he is selling he tells you it is a money pit and he is cutting his losses before he sinks anymore cash into the clunker. Well that is the story I have been hearing for sellers, not exactly good marketing.
from a historical point of view, white flight has been a, perhaps “the” sign of a declining neighborhood. This has been due to the fact that a significant amount of $$$ went with the white population when they left and was not replaced. The question is not so much race as it is money. If the people replacing the groups that are fleeing can replace their money then the neighborhood will not have a problem. But if they cannot then the neighborhood is in and will continue in decline.
From what i have read and heard, the incoming groups replacing those leaving NJ are NOT replacing the $$$ that is leaving with the groups fleeing NJ. NJ is in serious trouble. Its like a cancer patient thinking that they will be fine if they take a few asprin for the discomfort.
# 47 “This is not 2004 when even if you could save 3K a month towards your downpayment what was the point, houses rose 5K each month, might as well hold your nose and dive in on a zero down teaser.”
BINGO! The unsustainable increase in prices, fed by the feeding frenzy, has ceased and now the pressure is in the opposite direction. The sellers are so far resisting the downward pressure by letting listings expire or letting units languish on the market for extended periods. In this situation, it is rational for potential buyers to conclude that waiting is the only prudent course. I would hate to be someone who MUST sell right now.
Kettle,
The newly born and immigrants are not replacing the close to $1B in tax revenue that said sayonara last year?
Maybe teaching in NYC isn’t so bad now-
Governor signs 55/25 into law
http://www.uft.org/news/issues/press/55_25_signed/
“I would hate to be someone who MUST sell right now.”
shore,
How would you like to be on the other side of the table, no pressure to buy?
# 52,
That describes me and Mrs. Shore. We are looking for another getaway place and are just not willing to move right now. The options just keep getting better. For now, it looks like we will drop $50k into some kitchen remodeling and another $30k on a vacation rather than put any of it into declining RE. If we find a sufficiently-distressed seller who will turn over title for what we anticipate prices will be in 18 months, then fine. Otherwise, we will just play withthe money we would lose by buying right now.
[42]JMD…
I don’t feel like wasting an entire Saturday in traffic as I get a haircut and pick up light bulbs.
You can do both in one day??? in Edison? I’m impressed. Hey… did you cheat and find a “Bob’s Haircuts and Liquors Cheaper” joint that also carries light bulbs? Fess up now…
For Shore Guy and others who gave me advice on my business investor issue: I was lowballed. (sigh)
We had our meeting with our possible investor and his proposal was downright low (I could pull his number out of my bank account tomorrow) and his proposed business setup added 2 more people for 36K/year (ttl) without any output from them (paper employees), plus bump up an internal employee to above me (WTF??) and some other crazy crap.
I was proud of myself, though! We listened to his blah blah blah for 2 hours and when the numbers came around and he tried to casually slide them in, I let the words be the very last ones anyone said and they sank like a brick. I stared him down and he looked away first. He then mumbled about if I believe the number is low, I can come back with my justifications…
I didn’t get where I am by being a ‘tard. You’d think he’d know that?
And now, it’s time for another round of famous lines uttered by realtors to Mr. and Mrs. Gary:
1)”This neighborhood only expects a certain type of people.”
2)”This bubble talk is a bunch of bullsh*t.”
3)”Northern NJ is insulated – real estate will never drop in this area.”
4)”On average, real estate goes up 7% to 8 per year in this town (Little Falls).”
5)”Whatta ya mean you’re not interested in this house!”
6)”Just keep bidding and I’ll let you know when you win.”
7)”Take out a HELOC on your current house to buy another house but don’t let the bank know what the loan is really for. And, make sure you do it at least 48 hours before you list your house.”
8)”Bergen County’s population is increasing by 10% a year.”
Yup, actually utterances.
#42
I hate Edison. Lived in Edison woods for 2 years when I first got married and was commuting to NYC. Trafic has only gotten wose in that area.
I go to Edison very 2 to 3 weeks soo wecan eat lunch at Penangs (awesom, authentic Malyasian palce), then do some grocery shopping at Kam Man (asian grocery store). In the little plaza next to Kam Man I get my haircut at some place called Hair Toto.
3 things in the same day in Edison is some kind of record.
If it wasn’t for Penang I would never enter Edison again unless I was being chased by wolves
# 56
I hope you were wise enough to follow this sage advice.
#56 Gary, I really think I should start a t-shirt business selling shirts like
‘Renters Rule”
**Warning** then a flling kife zone sign
etc
#59 i mean falling knife.
Lousy typos!!
Maybe a better shirt for the folks on this board would have a person up against a stone wall wearing a tee shirt that says seller and another person who is wearing a tee shirt that says buyer holding a knife to the buyer’s throat while the buyer removes the seller’s wallet.
The caption would be: I am here to negotiate, from a position of strength.
I will be taking orders shortly.
#56
Gary, Were they saying you were or were not the certain type of people?
Next time they say that you can reply “Oh, only financially illiterate people are allowed?”
I had an agent tell me “This house is a good deal” I said “Yes, but for who?
The look of confusion on her face was priceless
i went to a few dozen open houses last spring. At least 10 to 15% of the houses the agent was also the owner.
I always wondered if they saw the writing on the wall or were flippers caught in a bind?
Does anyone here have any history with ceramic cooktops? In general, I am curious about scratching, durability, and performance, as well as the advantages/disadvantages of flush-mount units and those that have trim. In particular, I am wondering about electric and induction cooktops made by Wolf.
Also, although I swore I would never buy a stone counter, I am amazed to find that Corian and similar counters we like cost the same as stone, and lack the benefits when baking. Uggh!
Don’t know about ceramic cook tops…..but we went with Quartz on the counters and love it. No BS going to a quarry to pick out a slab…and yet it is super durable and anti-bacterial.
#65 Shore Guy
If you are truely using your kitchen to cook and not just to be a showplace, gas cooktops are best for cooking and electric ovens are best for baking. And nothing beats a cool granite or marble counter for rolling out dough-also no trivets needed. Corian burns,scratches and stains. I do alot of cooking.
bairen Says:
March 2nd, 2008 at 4:13 pm
#56
Gary, Were they saying you were or were not the certain type of people?
————-
I wasn’t going to touch that phrase with a 60 foot pole. I didn’t want to know what the realtor meant. The wife and I were following behind the realtor in an open house as we were walking. When the realtor uttered that phrase, I literally whacked my wife in the arm as to say, ‘don’t even open your mouth.’
When we got back in the car my wife said, “Oh…. My….. God.”
Gary….be careful man….your wife is gonna beat you in your sleep.
# 66 and 67
Essex and NJ,
Thanks for the quick response. I agree that gas is best for the cooktop. For reasons particular to the house we are inproving, it is not an option, other than installing a propane tank and that is a non-starter.
I had heard that the Corian had issues and appreciate the extra input. My inlaws and some friends have various stones and I like the look, but always looked at them as excessive. But, now tht we are pricing various options, aside from laminates, the options are all very close in cost. As I too do lots of baking, the opportunity to avoid having dough stick to the counters has some appeal.
spam – sorry it didn’t work out for you. It must be a great disappointment as I am sure you already had some plans in your head with where you could go.
Good thing it didn’t go to far in terms of time and expenses.
Essex,
She beats me when I’m awake so what’s the difference. :)
From AC Press this week:
House prices fell about 1 percent in the Atlantic City metropolitan area in the fourth quarter of 2007, a federal survey said Tuesday, the area’s first decline since the recession of the 1990s.
Home prices in Ocean City and the rest of Cape May County fell 3.4 percent in the fourth quarter, according to the Office of Federal Housing Enterprise Oversight’s house price index.
Both declines were the largest since 1995. The survey tracks sales and refinancings of the same homes to prevent home size from influencing the results.
Franklin Williams, president of the Ocean City Board of Realtors, said he and others in the industry there hadn’t seen significant price weakening.
“Actually, it’s looking like the first quarter of this year is going to be above the last,” said Williams, who is a broker/salesman with Prudential Fox & Roach Realtors in Ocean City. “January sales are showing an increase over January the previous year.”
Williams said that in 2007, prices in Ocean City were unchanged, while sales volume was up nearly 12 percent.
A real estate professional who works in Philadelphia and has a house in Margate said the new figures are just starting to reflect significant price drops in the market.
Marc Wiser, vice president of Legend Properties, was shocked by Realtor figures earlier this month suggesting prices in Atlantic County were still going up.
“It makes no sense, when every single property that is within blocks of my Margate house has been lowered due to a lack of activity,” Wiser said then.
The housing price decline reported in the federal survey makes more sense, but it too has further to go, he said.
“The house next door to mine was listed at $799,000. It’s now $535,000. Around the corner a home was listed for $649,000. It’s now $449,000. Both have been on the market well over two years, and I can go on and on,” Wiser said.
Tom Wilhelm, with Century 21 O’Donnell of Ventnor, Brigantine and Egg Harbor Township, remained guardedly optimistic.
“The data suggest a pricing bottom forming in the Atlantic City and Ocean City Metropolitan Statistical Areas,” Wilhelm said. “These relatively benign pricing decreases are on the heels of extraordinary five-year gains and I wouldn’t draw any conclusions until the data trends are more substantial. Overall, area homeowners have fared very well in their property investments over a five-year period.”
Nationwide, house prices gained a 10th of a percent in the fourth quarter, the federal report said. In New Jersey, prices fell a quarter of a percent, ranking it 41st out of the states in home price appreciation.
A companion survey by the Housing Enterprise office that only includes house purchases and not refinancings showed a grimmer trend: a nationwide price drop of 1.3 percent in the quarter.
The Standard & Poors/Case-Shiller Home Price Index, also released Wednesday, painted a bleaker picture still: a 5.4 percent plunge in home prices in the fourth quarter.
That index tracks typical single-family homes in 20 selected cities nationwide. It also includes houses bought with jumbo and subprime loans that aren’t covered by the federal survey.
Since we’re talking countertops, does anyone have experience with soapstone? I think it’s beautiful. Any info is appreciated.
# 72
Don’t say that too loudly. From some of the posts made a week or so ago, there are a few folks on the board who will be over to get their share of abuse.
# 74
Isn’t it very soft?
75 Shore
Apparently only if Mrs. Gary is wearing PVC.
Shore Guy [75],
I think the debate was whether it should be PVC or leather. What, spandex is out all of a sudden?
Gary
Actually I said latex and kettle shot me down. :(
lostinny,
LOL! I just saw your post after I posted!
Whew! Ok….. I think I’ll go eat dinner now, followed by a cold shower. lol!
Gary [70],
Why is propane a non-starter?
Hey grim et al,
I want to do a bit of investigation in NYC, but I don’t know where to start. My wife works for NYU, and we get subsidized housing from them. A couple years ago, NYU made an agreement with a developer to offer brand-new luxury condos in Roosevelt Island to people in our situation, so that they could get us to move out of the on-campus locations. They’ve only managed to sell 13 of 58 units thus far, not exactly a runaway success. They won’t say if they sold for asking price or what. They say the list price for those 58 units is a ¨special price for NYU affiliates¨, but I don’t buy that. The address is 425 Main St., Roosevelt Island, NY. How would I get the info? Thanks a lot.
#82
Mrs. Shore would borrow some leather and hang me with it. She insists on not having any tanks on the property.
gary,Lost
i believe the debate was PVC or latex.
I suggested PVC myself ;) the glean of the crop off of the PVC under the lights just cant be beat….
shore, 84
even if you bury them?
Clot, will need your expert opinion on this one – what is the deal with rates?
Any explanation as to why they are going up? Any projections on when they will go down? We’re still not ready to buy – moving to new area, want to check it out for 6 months, and then buy … but this whole rate thing has us wondering … should we wait even longer?
Nobody seems to know why rates are going up, and if the Fed wants people to buy, can rates go down as well as prices? Yup, i’d love to have my cake and eat it, too.
blood
chifi or 3b may correct me on this, but i believe that outside of the immediate technical details, rates are going up because of an increase in risk. credit markets are unstable at best, the dollar continues to inflate and bergabe seems hell bent to continue cutting FFR rates. on top of all this banks are starting to feel the sting of the credit orgy that took place.
FFR rate reductions are not making loans cheaper to banks. even if the $$ value on paper may be cheaper, there is a n increased level of risk to the lender and hence a higher rate.
Re post 34:
JBJB,
I don’t know how your friends are doing out there in New Mexico, but if you can’t run a successful catering business in NJ, You can’t run a catering business.
Also, what’s up w/ two attorneys who can only afford a “dingy place in Montclair,” ?
Kettle
I’ve got a bunch of PVC I’d love to get rid of. If you know anyone that wants some, get my email from grim.
GRIM 4 Thank you,trying to catch up out all day.Great charts thats if you are looking to buy!Now to start from 4 down.
Shore Guy [84],
Sorry for misaddressing the previous note.
I ask because I have two (completely illegal, I admit) 30 pound tanks tucked behind a couple of foundation plants, plumbed to a cooktop with orifices altered for propane, with a switch between the tanks so that when one runs out (always happens when company’s coming), you flip it over and start cooking again. Pull off the empty one and get it filled sometime. We use maybe two tanks a year and we cook a lot.
Does the missus also object to the 20 pounds of propane hanging off the barbecue?
North Nj will go down another 15% by 2009 Jan. Don’t buy yet.
57 re Edison
I remember when that gas line blew up at Edison Woods and it was like a huge fireball in the air. Crazy.
Just talked to my dad tonight. After looking for a non-POS in central/north Jersey for almost two years, he has decided to sit this round out and signed a 2 year lease on a house in Somerset county. My mom will be happy that her stuff can finally come out of storage and be settled into a house, and my dad can rest a bit easier waiting to see where the bubble takes us the next 1.5 years.
blood,
Very simply, long term rates are going up as a result of the fed easing the ffr. Who in their right mind would buy 10 years, yielding approx 3.8% while inflation is over 4%, our govt #’s. Real infaltion is approx 8-10%. You want long term rates to come down? Write to BB and tell him to raise the ffr and support the dollar.
Remember, the fed is lowering rates to bail out the banks. A positive yield curve, steep, is their mandate. They could give a s*it about Jonh Q and what they pay for long term $.
56
I remember on one house we made an offer on, we got insults through the roof as they kept calling us for weeks.
The best was “Why was our agent bringing us to see houses that we couldn’t afford?” and that this is “X Terrace” didn’t we know that. As if “X Terrace,” lined with it’s overpriced 1950s POSs splits, was so prestigious.
blood,
One other item, the fed controls short term rates. The market controls long term rates. The market will win. Bergabe is crapping in a backed up septic system.
spam (55)-
For most small businesses, the rule of the day is NFP. An acronym for:
No f-ing partners.
Yes, the Market Has Its Bright Spots
EAGER brokers may seize on any positive development as a harbinger of improvement. But market analysts continue to advise caution, pointing out that the supply-and-demand cycles for both the rental and sales markets ordinarily take years to play out.
Still, if you were an optimist, you might take heart from the following items of New Jersey real estate news:
http://www.nytimes.com/2008/03/02/realestate/02njzo.html?ref=realestate
Gary (56)-
How recent?
Anyone have any info on MLS #2744055 in Oradell? Specifically, how long it’s been on the market, what area of town, and anything to beware of? I have a friend looking for a small house and this is in her price range.
bath (87)-
Can’t have your cake and eat it too.
Mortgage rates are going up because the USD’s being inflated up the hump of the monetary roller coaster. When the long side of fixed income markets (10 years and out) get a whiff of inflation, they don’t like that. Inflation erodes fixed income gains. When we get to the top of the inflationary roller coaster, then we turn over and get the thrill of a deflationary credit crisis. That’s when nobody wants to lend anything to anybody, because every borrower’s steroid-pumped collateral is exposed as worthless.
More and more, it seems like we’re experiencing both sides of the roller coaster at once. The not-so-subtle code word for that is “stagflation”.
Thank your lucky stars your advisor has finally allowed you to dabble in the alchemistic arts. If you are sufficently locked and loaded, you’ve got yourself an E-ticket to the most fun you can have while clothed.
Follow your intuition on when the best time to buy a house will be. The market is obviously taking another big dive right now, and it’s unlikely you’ll miss a good entry point. Guys like Grim have the movements pegged in what seems to be real-time.
All disclaimers. I am an old, tired white guy.
lost (90)-
Please take this into a chat room. :)
Ed Sanders
The couple I was referring two are quite young, he was out of law school three years and she was just out. They were really trying hard to pay down huge student loans. They weren’t (like many here) going to go out and overpay for a POS even though they could probably easily make the monthly nut. He was working 55-65 hr weeks and she decided that wasn’t for her (hence the catering business). I think they decided that working your ass off in NJ to support a growing welfare class was not worth it, so they moved. I am not sure why she couldn’t get the catering business going but she seemed to believe it would be better where they were moving to. The point i was trying to make is that there are lot of professional, productive people (i.e the tax base) who are going to flee the state for a more conducive environment for working and creating wealth.
bath (87)-
Don’t forget to round out your portfolio with other shiny stuff: platinum, palladium, copper, moly (although moly doesn’t shine), zinc, nickel and titanium.
And to top it all off: a company that can clad metal-to-metal through the use of controlled explosions (BOOM).
All disclaimers. I am a tired old white guy who derives entertainment value from watching things explode.
NJ makes it almost impossible to have a catering business unless you have a restaurant. You can’t cater out of your home unless you have a completely separate kitchen with fire supression system, commercial ventilation system,grease traps, hand washing sink, etc. etc. Also the licensing fees and insurance and taxes are killer.
Did Godzilla escape from monster island again?
http://finance.yahoo.com/q?s=%5EN225
OT-
No March Madness game will approach Lakers-Mavs today.
Nikkei down over 4%
spam [55] & clot [99],
Not to be condescending or obnoxious and I don’t know a damned thing about spam’s business but …
If you are running a business and paying yourself the $100k of profit when your time is worth $100k on the free market, the business is worth zero. I cannot tell you how many small businesses I have looked at where the seller thinks he/she should be paid the capitalized value of his/her job.
#74 Soapstone
We installed soapstone (hubby did it!) & LOVE it! It is easy to keep… sometimes we oil it & it’s black & shiny. Other times we let it go to a soft dark gray. It’s very very strong- not soft at all & great for defrosting or cooling. We got ours from M. Teixeira in Hackensack; they are local experts: http://www.soapstones.com/
Sean (108)-
It’s a meltdown of the yen carry trade.
Sort of a Godzilla vs. Swamp Thing showdown.
Godzilla is winning. If there’s such a thing as a winner.
punch (111)-
Shouldn’t have to buy yourself a job.
However, a business that you own- that you love- that provides meaning to your life and meaningful work for others- is not something you can necessarily measure in those terms.
Clotpoll Says:
March 2nd, 2008 at 8:41 pm
bath (87)- Don’t forget to round out your portfolio with other shiny stuff: platinum, palladium, copper, moly (although moly doesn’t shine), zinc, nickel and titanium.
And to top it all off: a company that can clad metal-to-metal through the use of controlled explosions (BOOM).
clot: you get too amped on this charting $hit….be careful, people don’t seem to be able to parse everything you say into digestible bites….ALL DISCLAIMERS is not enough…..you have self-reported a rigorous stop discipline, most of your lurking fans are likely not as prepared….
Futures down over 100 points, market unrest continues. I hope Corzine has limit orders on those pension funds,down 4 billion from July and counting.
JIM
marito, #83: try this:
propertyshark.com
and you might check the archives of:
curbed.com
“It’s a meltdown of the yen carry trade.”
Soon to be called the US dollar carry trade!
Marito #83
Love Streeteasy.com for this type of thing..
check out
http://www.streeteasy.com/nyc/building/455-main-street-manhattan
116. Corzine doesn’t need Pension Fund Investment Limits, he simply sells NJ real estate, and raise taxes. He may borrow a script from the Church and institute tithing, requiring each NJ person to cede 10% of their net worth to the NJEA annually. It’s only fair.
57 Bairen – If you love Penang & Kam Man, but hate Edison, there happen to be both in the same shopping plaza on Rt. 10 in East Hanover.
Hinterlands report: stunning ads in today’s paper for – get this – $250k houses. They’re all over the paper. $50k plus needed with 30yr fixed. Ha. Nobody has any money for this for entry level garbage. These houses should be $150 max.
There’s a place that looks like your typical slapped-up Toll farm-killer. $150k total needed. Again, nobody has that for a square box with bowed-out siding and a front face lift. Good luck and drop the price, folks.
A year ago, these places wouldn’t even be featured with a picture.
ChiFi (115)-
I don’t think I have fans. Never had ’em before.
Just so nobody thinks I’m parsing words, I’ll try this:
Loading up on hard and soft commodities is gambling, pure and simple. If you want to gamble, this is a legitimate way to do it. However, the results you obtain may reflect the results that come when you gamble a lot.
HE (118)-
BC has been running USD crosses for five years now.
I don’t really understand why I was so surprised to discover that the other day.
Vacant Homes in U.S. Climb to Most Since 1970s With Ghost Towns
By Brian Louis and Dan Levy
More Photos/Details
Feb. 29 (Bloomberg) — When Quinn Cuthbertson looks around his new neighborhood in El Dorado Hills, California, he sees rows of empty homes and barren hillsides. A promised new school and a clubhouse haven’t materialized.
Cuthbertson paid $460,000 for a four-bedroom house in this northern California town named for the mythical golden city. He now suspects his neighbor spent $45,000 less. Nearby, 87 of 98 Toll Brothers Inc. home sites are undeveloped.
Almost 200,000 newly constructed single-family homes are sitting empty in the U.S., the most since Commerce Department statistics began in 1973. Partially completed developments reduce revenue for cities and towns and hurt businesses, said Nicolas Retsinas, the director of Harvard University’s Joint Center for Housing Studies. Rising foreclosures and falling property values may cut tax revenue by more than $6.6 billion for 10 states, including New York, California and Florida, the U.S. Conference of Mayors said in a November report.
“Half-filled developments are an advertisement for a failing housing market,” said Retsinas, a former assistant secretary for housing at the U.S. Department of Housing and Urban Development. “It also has a spillover effect on the surrounding community.”
Falling Prices
About 370,000 new homes are for sale because people who initially contracted to buy them backed out, according to estimates in a Feb. 15 report from analysts at New York-based CreditSights Inc. An additional 216,000 homes are under construction, according to Commerce Department data.
In January 1973, the number of finished new homes for sale was 97,000, when the U.S. population was about 212 million, according to the U.S. Census Bureau. In December 2007, 197,000 completed homes were on the market and in January 2008 there were 195,000. The current population is 303.5 million.
Home prices may fall at least 8 percent nationwide and by as much as 26 percent from the third quarter of 2007 before hitting bottom, according to a Feb. 13 report from New York- based Deutsche Bank AG analyst Karen Weaver, the firm’s global head of securitization research.
El Dorado Hills and the nearby towns of Bass Lake and Cameron Park started growing in the mid-1990s as Californians sought out new suburbs within commuting distance of Sacramento, the state capital. El Dorado Hills is about 30 miles east of Sacramento and used to be known as just a bus stop between the San Francisco Bay Area and Lake Tahoe resorts.
El Dorado’s Growth
“Thirty years ago, El Dorado Hills was a Raley’s and a 76 gas station, and some homes off in the hills,” said Mike Applegarth, a senior administrative analyst in the El Dorado County chief administrative office. Raley’s is a grocery store chain based in West Sacramento, California.
Today the town has a Target Corp. store, a Mercedes-Benz dealership and a Regal Cinemas with 14 screens, Applegarth said.
Most of the community’s growth came in the late 1990s when the El Dorado County Board of Supervisors gave approval for construction of 11,598 homes as part of five development agreements, said Laura Gill, the county’s chief administrative officer.
Lennar Corp., Centex Corp., Cambridge Homes and Parkland Homes plan to build 1,500 houses on 990 acres in El Dorado Hills in the Blackstone El Dorado development south of Highway 50, according to the project’s Web site. So far, Centex has built 30 of the 105 houses it plans to construct there, said salesman Bob DeWitt.
Building permits in El Dorado County are estimated to drop to $3.5 million in the fiscal year ending June 30, from a peak of $5.7 million in fiscal 2004, Gill said.
Cutting Prices
In Yorkville, Illinois, a town 55 miles southwest of Chicago, residential building permits fell 47 percent in 2007 from the year earlier.
In El Dorado Hills, Cuthbertson, a California Highway Patrol officer who has two sons ages 4 and 6, plans to stay in the area, and says he can afford to wait for prices to recover.
“We’ll wait to see what the neighborhood will be like,” Cuthbertson said. “We know prices might be going down, but in five years we’ll be OK.”
Homebuilders can’t wait. They’re cutting prices even further than last year and some are courting real estate brokers and using auctions to get rid of homes. They usually rely on their own staff to sell properties.
Builders Retrench
“It’s a desire for the companies to do whatever is necessary to retrench and put themselves in a position to succeed when the residential markets turn more favorable,” said Keven Lindemann, director of the real estate group at SNL Financial in Charlottesville, Virginia.
The five largest U.S. builders had almost 8,900 completed homes for sale at the end of their most recent quarters, according to data compiled by Bloomberg.
D.R. Horton Inc., the second-biggest U.S. builder, held an “UnAuction” on Feb. 16 and Feb. 23 with prices cut as much as 50 percent at 23 developments in Southern California.
Pacific West Cos., a Reno, Nevada-based builder, said this month that it’s offering a “risk free” price guarantee to buyers in its California communities, including El Dorado Hills. If a similar property in the same development sells for less than a homeowner paid, the company will refund the difference.
`Element of Fear’
“We’re taking the element of fear away,” said Taylor Cohee, Pacific West’s vice president of sales.
Builders such as Los Angeles-based KB Home and D.R. Horton of Fort Worth, Texas, are seeking out real estate agents to bring buyers to developments, said Joellen Chappell, sales manager at Century 21 M&M and Associates in Stockton, California. Century 21 realtors are now getting commissions of as much as 4 percent for a sale.
“They’re bribing us with bonuses,” Chappell said.
Stockton’s metropolitan area had the second highest foreclosure rate in the U.S. last year and again in January. Almost 5 percent of households in that community were in some stage of foreclosure in 2007, according to RealtyTrac Inc., an Irvine, California-based seller of foreclosure data.
At least 14 new-home auctions are scheduled through April in California, Florida, Illinois, Arizona and Nevada, said Brigitte Boudress, a Beverly Hills, California-based spokeswoman for Kennedy Wilson Inc.
Moving Inventory
“The builders are looking for ways to accelerate sales and get inventory moving,” said Marty Clouser, senior vice president at Kennedy Wilson. The company auctioned 450 properties last year for $170 million at prices 85 percent to 90 percent less than the homes’ listings, Clouser said.
The decline in housing values is reducing the amount of revenue that counties make from property taxes, said Jacqueline Byers, director of research and outreach with the National Association of Counties in Washington. In states like California that require builders to use sales proceeds to pay for streets, fire stations and schools, that means slower development.
Brent Sease, who bought a five-bedroom home built by Miami- based Lennar in El Dorado Hills, said a park and school that were supposed to be constructed are at least two years from being completed. Across the street, red tags that say “Available” are pasted on two houses.
“That’s the thing I’m concerned about,” said Sease, a software manager with three daughters. “It’s going to be a while before they put all that in, because they’re not selling homes.”
To contact the reporters on this story: Brian Louis in Chicago at blouis1@bloomberg.net ; Dan Levy in San Francisco at dlevy13@bloomberg.net .
May I once again suggest Love in the Ruins, by Walker Percy?
This book was written over 40 years ago but reads like it was done yesterday.
I just e-mailed a note to pick it up. I’ll read it on the plane this week. Thanks for the suggestion.
Clot – do you have Discovery Channel – they have new show: “Smash Lab”. also mythbusters sometines pretty good.
Al-
me like watch things go boom
Pat (127)-
I really hope you like this book. I can already feel the egg on my face if you don’t.
If you get into it big time, stop for a minute and think about how much Jonathan Franzen’s The Corrections resembles it.
Newsweek:
Man in the Middle
His name might sound familiar. But who is Tony Rezko, and what’s his connection to Barack Obama?
http://www.newsweek.com/id/117851
Clot, I’ll love it. The library description reads, “the adventures of a bad Catholic at a time near the end of the world.”
I’ve been craving good books for six years. BC (before child) I was always part of a reading club in Philly..house to house, every month, getting good suggestions and tearing apart books for four hours. Now, I’m culture-less, and have fallen back on old faithfuls I’ve read before.
Some open house fun to share: I cruised around Quailbrook again before running errands. The first OH was a unit I saw already with my realtor, only I didn’t realize it until I opened the door (cookie cutter developments can be disorienting). The unit next door featured a sign in the window stating it had been winterized on behalf of some mortgage company, which screams “foreclosure!” loud and clear. The listing realtor said she had seen it and told me to stay far, far away, especially since the bank was holding out for a good price.
The second OH was also one which I had seen. The owner has done some work to make it contemporary however I neglected to take a close look on the first stop. The master BA needs some work. The listing realtor said “there’s lots of interest in this place”, to which I said, “oh sure, but there’s plenty for sale, so if I don’t buy this one, I’m sure I’ll find something just as nice.”
Did anyone else hit the open houses and feel like the realtors still think it’s 2005?
Jill,
Near River Edge / New Milford border on a dead end off of Kinderkamack (difficult to make a left to head south on Kinderkamack)
ACT 248 GARDEN PL $425,000 10/31/2007
W-T 248 GARDEN PL $425,000 11/27/2007
BOM 248 GARDEN PL $425,000 11/30/2007
W-T 248 GARDEN PL $425,000 12/18/2007
BOM 248 GARDEN PL $425,000 12/20/2007
PCH 248 GARDEN PL $399,900 1/8/2008
DOM: 124
Taxes: $5,713
Property: 40’x135′
ACT: Active
W-T: Withdrawn
BOM: Back On Market
PCH: Price Change
From the WSJ:
Wall Street Gears for Its New Pain
Commercial Real Estate To Yield Write-Downs; Defaults Slim So Far
By LINGLING WEI and RANDALL SMITH
March 3, 2008; Page C1
After suffering a beating from their exposure to home loans, banks and securities firms are about to take their lumps from office towers, hotels and other commercial real estate. And the losses could last longer than those from the subprime shakeout.
As the economy wobbles and financing costs rise because of the credit crunch, commercial-real-estate values are starting to slide, with analysts at Goldman Sachs Group Inc. projecting a decline of 21% to 26% in the next two years. That means misery for securities firms with exposure to commercial-real-estate loans and commercial- mortgage-backed securities.
…
A team of Goldman analysts predicts the financial damage from commercial real estate could last as long as two years, which would mean “a significantly longer tail than subprime.” That is because only 28% of commercial-real-estate loans have been packaged into securities since 1995, while about 80% of subprime loans have been securitized; the higher level of securitization subjects the subprime assets to more-immediate mark-to-market accounting, which is playing out in the form of the write-downs that are dominating headlines.
Wall Street has set itself up for a hard fall in commercial real estate. Banks and securities firms are facing exposure from loans and financing commitments made on commercial-real-estate projects, property they own directly and commercial-mortgage-backed securities that no one wants to buy.
From MarketWatch:
HSBC profit climbs 21%; bad-debt charge soars
HSBC on Monday reported a 21% rise in profit for 2007, driven by growth in Hong Kong and Asia, even as its earnings from North America were virtually wiped out by an ill-fated push into the subprime-mortgage market.
The U.K.’s biggest bank by market capitalization reported net income of $19.13 billion for the year, up from $15.79 billion a year earlier and ahead of market expectations. Total operating earnings for the year rose 25% to $87.6 billion.
HSBC, said profit from its U.S. operations slumped more than 98% to $91 million due to surging bad-debt charges. The bank bought Household International in 2003 and used it as a springboard to target aggressive growth in U.S. lending, including subprime mortgages.
On Monday it said total loan-impairment charges for the group jumped 63% to $17.24 billion, largely due to that U.S. lending.
From the WSJ:
Countrywide’s Mortgage Woes Deepen
By JAMES R. HAGERTY
March 3, 2008; Page A2
Countrywide Financial Corp.’s mortgage portfolio continues to deteriorate rapidly as defaults increase and home prices fall, a securities filing shows.
The Calabasas, Calif., lender’s annual filing with the Securities and Exchange Commission, released late Friday, showed a big increase in late payments on option adjustable-rate mortgages, known as option ARMs. These loans give borrowers several choices of payment each month, including one that covers only part of the interest normally due. When borrowers choose that minimal payment, the loan balance grows.
As of the end of 2007, payments were at least 90 days overdue on 5.4% of option ARMs held as investments by Countrywide’s banking arm, up from 0.6% a year earlier. Countrywide held $28.42 billion of such loans as of Dec. 31. The company said 71% of the borrowers were making minimal payments. Only about a fifth of the borrowers were required to document fully their incomes before receiving the loans.
From NY Magazine:
Not Ready for Subprime
One in 40 New York City homes with a mortgage is in foreclosure, and there are 26,000 subprime loans in the city. “A lot of these people were okay paying 5 or 7 percent mortgages, but when their monthly payments exploded, they ran into trouble,” says State Senator Jeff Klein, who is running sessions for borrowers to meet with mortgage servicers and bank counselors. “We need to force lending institutions to sit down with loan holders and modify the terms,” he says. Invitations were sent to 20,000 New Yorkers in or near foreclosure. Arianne Cohen spoke to four of them at Klein’s first forum, in the Bronx, on February 23.
From the Staten Island Advance:
Foreclosure crisis gripping Staten Island involved fraudulent players big and small
Behind the big lenders headlining the subprime crisis are smaller fraudulent players, who experts say played a role in the foreclosure crisis now gripping Staten Island and the nation.
A new state law, which requires all people who originate mortgages in New York to undergo criminal background checks and fingerprinting, could help cut down on criminal behavior.
It’s a measure Islander Elizabeth Giammarino wishes had been in place when she dealt with two mortgage makers back in 2006.
The same two men were recently arrested in Florida on drug charges. And one, Annadale resident Joseph Crapanzano, already had a criminal record for a real estate scam even before he promised to find a loan to help Mrs. Giammarino’s mother stop foreclosure on her Great Kills home.
But 75-year-old Rose Marie Giammarino only sunk deeper into debt and back into default after Crapanzano and Mark LaMassa got her an “interest only” $350,000 mortgage in 2006. The loan doubled her monthly payments and was due to be paid in full after one year — an impossible proposition, attorneys at the Homeowner Defense Project at Staten Island Legal Services argue in court papers.
From the WSJ:
Study finds deep subprime impact
By GREG IP
THE WALL STREET JOURNAL ASIA
March 3, 2008
Mortgage losses, compounded by contemporary risk-management and accounting practices, could prompt banks and other lenders to shrink their lending and other assets by $2 trillion, a study concludes.
The resulting withdrawal of credit could knock one to 1.5 percentage points off U.S. economic growth, compounding the impact of collapsing home construction and softer consumer spending due to lower home wealth, the study said. It was presented Friday at a forum in New York on the U.S. Federal Reserve organized by the Brandeis International Business School and the University of Chicago Graduate School of Business.
The study is one of the most exhaustive efforts to date to pinpoint the extent and impact of mortgage losses.
In the initial stages of the crisis, some optimists noted that early estimates of subprime losses of between $50 billion and $100 billion were about the same as one bad day in the stock market.
But the latest study argues the losses will be far larger — about $400 billion — and cause much more damage than if they had occurred in stocks or corporate bonds. That is because about half the losses will be borne by banks and other highly leveraged institutions, which hold equity and other capital of just 4% to 10% of total assets.
For each dollar of loss not made up for by new capital, these institutions will have to shrink their balance sheets by $10 to $25 by reducing lending or selling securities. They would do that not just in order to keep their capital ratios steady, but also to raise those ratios to align with risk-management practices.
From Seeking Alpha:
Homeowners Feel the Pain of Over-Improvement Syndrome
Clear evidence that the U.S. housing boom is now officially over appeared in bold type in this story : Say Goodbye to Granite Countertops. It almost sounds un-American to print such a thing, but there it was at CNN/Money
As first discussed here almost three years ago, back when this blog was just starting out in the spring of 2005, the end result seemed clear – it was just a matter of the timing.
…
Well, the boom has surely ended and, as expected, Americans are indeed left with “a pile of debt and a bunch of granite countertops”, though, lots of those granite countertops are now owned by the bank along with the rest of the house.
American consumers turning away from granite countertops, once the object of their endless affection (and quite functional too), just makes it official.
In some ways, granite countertops were like marijuana, a sort of entry drug, where a homeowner could dip a toe in the home-equity water and come out smiling, at least for a few years. Investment property and subprime lending, on the other hand, were like crack cocaine and heroin – almost guaranteed to end in tears.
Whatever the drug analogy, kitchen upgrades now have a completely different feel than they did a few years back and stories like the one below are only going to make things worse for the likes of Home Depot and Lowes, where countertop installers are probably losing their jobs at a pace equaled by mortgage originators.
From the WSJ:
Small Banks Face Trouble, Too
Many Are Likely to Fail Because Home Builders Cannot Repay Loans
By MICHAEL CORKERY and LINGLING WEI
March 3, 2008; Page C2
While the world’s largest banks are still reeling from the meltdown in the home-mortgage market, smaller banks are feeling even more strain because of their big bets on construction loans to home builders.
Cash-strapped, heavily leveraged builders are falling behind on interest payments as the housing downturn drags on and dwellings sit unsold. Now, many of the small banks that financed builders are caught with accumulating portfolios of delinquent loans and face increased pressure from banking regulators to reassess and hedge these troubled loans. Those banks that don’t have enough capital set aside or aren’t diversified enough have an increasing likelihood of failure.
As a result, small banks could be the next wave of casualties of a lending meltdown that started when thousands of home buyers found themselves unable to pay their mortgages.
From the Record:
Don’t rush into buying a house with ‘Mr. Right’
You’re a single professional woman living in a rental apartment. You’ve launched a career meaningful to you. Yet you still yearn to fulfill two other interlocking goals: finding “Mr. Right” and buying your first home with him.
Dating experts believe women who can afford to buy a home on their own shouldn’t postpone a purchase until they find true love. But they allow that a fair number of women, including many traditionalists, would rather wait until they’re hitched — or at least engaged — before they make a property purchase.
Anybody watching Buffett on Squawk?
#121 I’ve been to the one on East Hanover and like it, but my kid loves sitting in the boat in Edison, and we go to the bookstore in Kam man sometimes. Otherwise I’d always go to the one in East Hanover. Edison really sucks
#133 Are you talking about Quailbrook in Somerset? I used to live there.
If you have kids look in another town. Awful school system. We wound up going to Wegman’s or a supermarket on the other side of Somerset because the one on Easton ave is not a pleasant shopping experience. Unless you like being stared at by jobless folks.
Quailbrook is a nice little enclave. We moved there because we didn’t have kids and the bubble hadn’t taken off yet. It was cheaper to own then rent a 2 bedroom. We figured if we had a kid we wouldn’t have to bail you till s/he turned 4.
(126) Clot – I see you are there this AM…WAY off topic –
Post divorce -riddled with feelings of failure and one heck of depression..reading hundreds of books… Peck’s “Life is difficult” just wasn’t enough (Viktor Frankl’s “Mans Search for Meaning” remains my favorite from those days)then I hit upon Walker Percey’s “Lost in the Cosmos.”
“You are depressed because you should be. You are entitled to your depression. In fact, you’d be deranged if you were not depressed.”
I read on – fascinated…”Now notice that as soon as suicide is taken as a serious alternative, a curious thing happens. “To be or not to be” becomes a serious choice, where before you were stuck with “to be.”
Your other choice was how “to be” less painfully, either by counceling, narcotizing, boozing, grouping, womaninzing, man-hopping, or changing your sexual preference.”
I chose counceling (two years) and the rest is history. I am very bogged down with reading just now but will put “Love in the Ruins” on my to-do list.”
Clot 144 yes
“Loading up on hard and soft commodities is gambling, pure and simple.”
Clot,
I guess everybody’s definition of loading up is relative? On the flip side, all can hold paper and watch their discretionary purchasing power hemorrhage.
Does anyone have an opinion (good or bad) on moving long distance with PODS?
I am one of the masses moving to NC from NJ. I can’t find a job down there so will be asking “would you like to make it a combo meal” until I find a real job. If my b.f.’s business takes off then I don’t have to worry about a job.
I wonder if there has been a study yet of the % that move to NC without a job? I’d have to believe it is high. I had no problem finding a good job in NJ, yet getting nowhere down there. I even applied at Duke! Now that’s desperate.
Friend moved from NJ to TX, found it substantially cheaper to hire a partial trailer than to use the Pods service. He found a company that sold partial space in a long-distance hauler. They dropped off the trailer at his place, gave him 24 hours to fill. Took a few days to get down, but he was given the same time to off-load.
I can get the full details if you would like.
Cindy (147)-
Lost in the Cosmos? That was a life-changing book for me, too.
Although I can’t imagine having read that before reading any other Walker Percy. That’s usually the one people save for last.
I’d also suggest The Moviegoer. That was his first novel & won the Nat’l Book Award in 1963. Once you read it, you’ll wonder why no studio ever tried to turn in into a movie.
Clot,
Check your email.
New tunnel tolls but traffic the same, people don’t care about money around NYC.
Reporting in from Atlanta again this morning, before I takeoff.
Took a drive around greater Atlanta yesterday, there are.a great many new townhomes for sale ranging in price from 150k – 800K, all within 20 miles of downtown, Isaw many new developments that looked like ghost towns.
The strip malls on the outskirts have many failed and boarded up stores.
I saw litte or no action at the sales offices for these townhome developments.
Commercial office space was just a bad, even buildings 7 to 10 miles from downtown were vacant.
There are many expensive 2+ mil homes for sales in the buckhead area,the people – spoke to that can afford them are unable to sell their existing homes to take advantage of the lower prices in the better neighborhoods.
They are in for a world of hurt down here, as many of the churches are advertising “professional counceling”, I guess a few verses from the bible dosen’t cut it anymore when times are bad.
From MarketWatch:
SUBPRIME TODAY
HSBC profit climbs 21%; bad-debt charge soars
Dollar tumbles to three-year low versus yen
Japanese consumer-credit firm Takefuji warns of derivative trading losses
Economists divided over best policy(in dealing with debt and subprime)
E-Trade, with Layton as CEO, might be angling for a sale
Auction supply ‘tsunami’ foreshadows deeper municipal losses
Buffett says U.S. in recession, stocks not cheap
Details to above headlines at link on top, Rich
(152) Clotpoll Read/have “Moviegoer” but came to it later. At the time I read Cosmos, I needed a life-changing experience….
New tunnel tolls but traffic the same, people don’t care about money around NYC.
I think people care, but what choice do you really have?
sean (155)-
“I guess a few verses from the bible dosen’t cut it anymore when times are bad.”
Time to break out the Paxil.
More bad news in muni-land.
http://www.bondbuyer.com/article.html?id=20080229ISOT72ZV
More turmoil in muni-land.
http://www.bondbuyer.com/article.html?id=20080229N3MJ9GBG
What an odd bubble. Houses are still being listed at 100% higher than their 1999 sales price. Usually a bubble knocks off a heck of a lot more. We either have a way to go or sellers will squat on their prices for a good tens years until inflation eventually brings it back to their asking price. Makes zero sense.
From MarketWatch:
Thornburg Mortgage gets new wave of margin calls
Thornburg Mortgage Inc. said Monday that it has not yet been able to meet a new wave of margin calls worth at least $270 million and is facing a liquidity shortage in its ability to meet any new outstanding margin calls. Thornburg said in a filing with the Securities and Exchange Commission on Feb. 28 that it had received margin calls in excess of $300 million between Feb. 14 and Feb. 27, but the mortgage company said Monday that due to the costs of meeting those obligations, Thornburg has been left with limited available liquidity. “There is no assurance as to Thornburg Mortgage’s ability to sell such assets or raise additional funds in the current market at acceptable prices, or to raise additional capital,” the company said in a statement. “If the company is unable to satisfy outstanding margin calls, any or all of its reverse repurchase agreement counterparties may declare an event of default and liquidate the pledged securities.” On Friday, credit rating agency Standard & Poor’s cut Thornburg’s rating because of the increasing number of margin calls it is facing.
From MarketWatch:
Fed’s Plosser says low rates today must be temporary
The level of the Fed’s benchmark interest rates is lower than standard monetary policy rules call for and therefore must be transitory and reversed in due course or inflation expectations may become unmoored, said Philadelphia Fed Bank President Charles Plosser on Monday. Plosser said that the turmoil in financial markets is a good reason why policy is lower than implied by policy rules. “But such devisations should be temporary and limited and promptly reversed when conditions return to normal,” Plosser said. Plosser is a voting member of the Fed’s policy making committee this year.
Spitzer if nothing else is consistently stupid. He just signed legislation lowering the UFT Pension Age & Service criteria for full pension. He thinks it’s 1975. One wonders if he is part of the Political Terrorist Network.
May I please get an address for #2488679?
Many thanks.
Auction Rate Muni Mania!!!!! Just for fun searched the bargain bin for NJ tax free bargain munis. Here is a NJ state bond paying 14.75% tax free. There is your tax dollars at working borrowing money at almost 15%!!!!!!
NJ HSG 2004B-11
Basic Analytics
Price (Ask) 100.000000
Yield to Worst (Ask) 14.750%
959 Ardsley
#93 test:North Nj will go down another 15% by 2009 Jan. Don’t buy yet.
Won’t take that long, you will see that 15% drop by mid- later summer in my opinion.
3b,
Regarding the ars market; Are the problems solely attributed to current liquidity conditions? Normally the IB’s would purchase what the market did not take, correct?
grim,
Comment from March 3rd, 2008 at 9:05 am is awaiting moderation.
#134 Rich: That house in Oradell also near the bus depot, and the rail road tracks. It is a real dumpy looking area. I would not buy there at any price.
NJ RE is going down faster than Tony Sopranos underware at the bada bing.
forget about RE lets talk investing. Assume I bought condos/houses soley for an investment purpose in 2004-2005, money market was 2%, munis were 1.75%, corp bonds were 3% and stocks still haad a bad taste in our mouths from the march 2000 to march 2003 wipeout. Houses were gaining double digit so cash flew there similar as it is today for metals. Why should I buy a house? Heck I saw Puerto Rico tax free triple A munis today for 5% tax free. For those of us in the highest tax bracket that is the equivalent of 7% taxable. Now some insured munis have buffet in a secondary position. So on those the default risk is the town goes bankrupt, so MBIA has to pay and if MBIA can’t pay Buffet has to pay. So if The statue of NJ, MBIA and Bershire Hataway are all bankrupt within ten years on a ten year bond you can lose your principal. I think we would be in a bunker in nevada with more pressing concerns if all three went bankrupt.
#154 Frank: So the tolls went up and what, you expcted people to stay home from work today?
A little thought in your posts might help.
WSJ:
Wall Street Gears for Its New Pain
Commercial Real Estate
To Yield Write-Downs;
Defaults Slim So Far
http://online.wsj.com/article/SB120450569895406511.html
“As the economy wobbles and financing costs rise because of the credit crunch, commercial-real-estate values are starting to slide, with analysts at Goldman Sachs Group Inc. projecting a decline of 21% to 26% in the next two years. That means misery for securities firms with exposure to commercial-real-estate loans and commercial- mortgage-backed securities.”
#162 John: Most people will not wait 10 years, if they really have to or want to sell.
Spring/Summer this year I believe will bring many sellers to theri senses.
can anyone give me any information on the following mls#2460173 please?
John Says:
March 3rd, 2008 at 8:44 am
What an odd bubble. Houses are still being listed at 100% higher than their 1999 sales price. Usually a bubble knocks off a heck of a lot more. We either have a way to go or sellers will squat on their prices for a good tens years until inflation eventually brings it back to their asking price. Makes zero sense.
———————
Hmmmm… what an interesting and pragmatic observation. Perhaps the fiscal connoisseurs on this site would care to explicate this trend?
Huge problems in liquidity in Auction Rate Securities. Banks no longer backstopping the issuance because of fears of not being able to resell and limited liquidity on their balance sheets.
From the New Yorker via MSNBC:
The argument against home ownership
What was a savings plan is now pushing some into indentured servitude
#170 BC Bob: When I was in the business, we technically had faield auctions almsot every day,as every time there was a balance left over, that indicated a failed auction,as there were not enough buyers.
We simply stepped in, took the balance down,and worked the inventory off that afternoon/next day. The goal was to have it all sold so the firm would not have to finance the position. These securities settle T+1.
Now the IB’s simply do not wnat to have this stuff on their books,and they are shafting their issuer clients, as well as their high net worth small corp customer base who purchased these securities.
This market is dead,and there will be layoffs, and as I have been saying, I think we will see at least one of the big firms bag the muni business entirely.
We either have a way to go or sellers will squat on their prices for a good tens years until inflation eventually brings it back to their asking price. Makes zero sense.
Makes perfect sense. You’ve nailed it right on the head. Marginal sellers will not “sell at a loss” and only forced sellers will take the hit. Human behavior, no one wants to take a loss unless they have to.
#174,
I would figure they would give up they Mercedes S500 and use a bus or a train instead. That’s all.
#183 Hard palce That is a little too simplistic,a nd its not the way it happened last time.
Margin calls thrash Thornburg again
The news keeps getting worse for Thornburg Mortgage (TMA). The Santa Fe, N.M., jumbo mortgage lender saw its shares plunge 23% in premarket trading Monday after the company said it received more margin calls as the market value of its mortgage securities holdings continued to fall. Thornburg, whose shares fell sharply late last week after the company said it received $300 million in calls for more collateral, said Monday morning that it has gotten an added $270 million in margin calls since then – and that it hasn’t been able to meet most of them. The company said it ”is working to meet all of its outstanding margin calls within a time frame acceptable to its lenders by either selling portfolio securities or raising additional debt or equity capital.” With Thornburg’s shares having lost three-quarters of their value over the past year, any capital-raising will come at a steep price to existing shareholders.
The company’s CEO, Larry Goldstone, blamed a quirk of fair value accounting for Thornburg’s plight. “The turmoil in the mortgage financing market that began last summer continues to be exacerbated by the mark-to-market accounting rules which are forcing companies to take unrealized write-downs on assets they have no intention of selling,” he said Monday. “In this environment, the current market price of assets has become disconnected from their underlying recoverable value, resulting in increased volatility and imprecise quarter-to-quarter comparisons of asset valuations.”
Goldstone isn’t the first to make this claim, but he remains upbeat about the prospect that Thornburg will muddle through the mortgage mess and realize higher profits. “These difficult market conditions have also created increased profit opportunities as lower-priced mortgage assets will translate into wider mortgage spreads and improved portfolio margins going forward,” Goldstone said. “We remain committed to manage through these challenging and volatile markets and remain focused on building long-term value for shareholders.”
Sean Says:
March 3rd, 2008 at 8:13 am
Reporting in from Atlanta again this morning, before I takeoff.
Was in Atlantan on Friday. I was amazed at how many new housing communities are being built. When you get near the city and look from top, Every few miles, you see, large chunk of levelled land, with road running through it. I wonder if they build all that stuff, the inventory would swell up like anything.
That actually poses a question. In NJ I don’t see any new housing community development of normal SFHs. I am starting to believe that due to such supply restrictions, the prices haven’t come down even compared to National Price declines. What does everyone think here?
#134: Thanks for the info. I should have known that Oradell at that price would be a crappy location. New Milford border wouldn’t be an issue, neither would the screwy intersection (I know it well) because my friend would go NORTH on KK Road every day. But the tracks are a deal killer. It probably floods, too.
The only real pluses are walking distance to town and five minutes from Lodos, the best Turkish restaurant in the area.
I guess I’m in moderation because of the “C” word….
3b,
Thanks. Basically, it’s not like the stuff is toxic. It’s simply the banks don’t have the cash to step in and buy the remainder?
If this is a correct statement, there must be some muni’s that are a screaming buy at this time. No?
“I guess I’m in moderation because of the “C” word….”
Jill,
Crash?
“We either have a way to go or sellers will squat on their prices for a good tens years until inflation eventually brings it back to their asking price. Makes zero sense.”
I think that people are not selling because they can’t raise the capital necessary to buy their next home. They are essentially trapped until they have enough equity in their current residence to afford the next residence.
Be patient people!!!
There has not been a spring RE season with no credit available. If the employment numbers get worse (and they will) then people are going to default and banks will be forced to sell these homes for 25% under comp value. Otherwise, there really is no impetus for people to sell at a lower price. The lack of sales is certainly a deterrent to lower prices. Just give it some more time and don’t gamble with your downpayment (commodities/gold). Withing the next 18 months, you will see the prices drop. Especially considering the tax problems NJ now faces will exacerbate the diaspora prompting more sales. It WILL get ugly.
The average housing bust takes 4 years. This boom was unprecedented in size. It may take a little longer to get here, but it will. There is nothing that I can see that will stop it.
#167
John where do I buy these bonds?
NJ HSG 2004B-11
Basic Analytics
Price (Ask) 100.000000
Yield to Worst (Ask) 14.750%
Lots of people will wait ten years. I know plenty of newlweds who bought one bedroom coops in 1989 for 150K and saw then fall to 80K, those bozos rented them out at a loss for a good ten years before they sold them. Never underestimate how long people will sit on a loss to make it right regardless of how much money they lose each month so they can say that on “paper” they broke even.
question: With short sales becoming more and more commonplace, at what point do you consider
them a good viable comp?
Re 192, those are auction rate bonds, your money will be tied up till they call them or they mature could be many years. Fidelity.com has tons and tons of them online with a min quant of 25K. If you have tons of cash and want to drop some money into an iliquid high yielding investment it is a good deal, if you are not in that catagory a plain old 5-10 muni at 5% tax free with a min quant of 5K would be a bet deal and much more liquid.
#192
Frank……these bonds are available and a good investment for the short term if you can stomach the ill-liquidity. These typically pay 3ish percent but when the auctions fail they have a default rate that triggers that is much higher. I am long some of these bonds and enjoying some high rates but concerned that they are ill-liquid. Even Goldman auctions failed on these bonds….
Inventory is declining in some areas.
http://www.nytimes.com/aponline/us/AP-Luxury-Homes-Fire.html?_r=1&oref=slogin
#189 BC Bob: Yes that is exactly correct, and there are some incredible buys out there right now.
Rown Univ had some auction aper last month that reset at 20% for 35 days.
Plus there are a lot of “story bonds” out there right now, with funky call features, pre-res etc. that are also screaming buys, and not toxic. but nobody wants to hear the story.
The damage however that these IB’s have done to both their issuer clients,a nd teh onvestors who purchased these is in my opinion irreparable.
Just to give you some examples, here are a few of the investors who were buying tons of this stuff, when I was selling it.
Best Buy, Dell, (including Michael himself) Microsoft,AK Steel, Kohls, Boston Scientfic, SC Johnson, Purdue, Novell, and many more and lots of wealthy individuals,(all hosuehold names).
The firm I worked for only had the wealthiest of the wealthiest investors
This will be a good opportunity for the small regional muni firms to step in and grab business.
#198 ADA: Declining or withdrawn, big, big difference.
so sales are roughly half of peak volume and inventory is roughly double the Feb. inventory low point. you now need a downpayment to buy, but even if you have the money, the motivation isn’t there because you aren’t sure if you’ll be employed in six months. Plus, basically everyone agrees that prices are just headed down anyway, so why not wait? Cannot imagine a scenario better suited to drive prices downward rapidly
ADA,
Climbing in Bergen County.
Month 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008
March 3,206 3,235 4,945 5,231 5,455
#196 John: It will nto be many years. First no issuer wnats to have a failed auction, month after month in the market, it is an incredibly bad reflection on the issuer.
Second no issuer will wnat to pay these kind of rates month after month.
Thes instruments will eb called, and new long term bonds, serials and terms will be issued to pay off the auction rate securities.
And that means many of the bug boys who ramped up their auction desks over teh lst few years, will be ramping them down. Auction rates were onw of the last real profit areas left in teh new issue business.
And these issuers who will now be flexing their debt out long term, are going to IMO not do these deals with the IB’s who let theit auctions fail.
That is why I believe this will be a good opportunity for the small regional firms who just do munis.
3b
Interesting thought. I have some money managed by ‘one of the big boys’ who put me in munis. Same as cash pitch. Now its ill-liquid. I am about to pull my money because of a lackluster answer when I asked ‘why is it good enough for me to buy(on your advise) but when the auction fails its not good enough for you to buy back ?”
#198 – Inventory is declining (via arson). Very funny! Always look at the bright side, eh? Maybe the NAR will pick up on this.
#204 mr.potter: We all pitched these as good as cash, because they really were at one time.
I am actually shocked that these firms are letting these auctions fail.
I was involved in marketing the product in the begining, back in the 90’s. Its kind of personal for me, dorky as that sounds.
Not surprised you got a lacluster answere, what else is the salesman going to say at this point.
146 “We wound up going to Wegman’s ”
We love the Wegmans on Rt 35 in Ocean.
207 – We love the Wegmans on Rt 35 in Ocean.
Wegmans is the best. I used to shop at that same one when I was living in Wanamassa.
#198 – Inventory is declining (via arson). Very funny! Always look at the bright side, eh? Maybe the NAR will pick up on this.
Buy now while you still can!!! Better get in before your dream house burns down!!!
208 Before Ocean opened up, we headed out to Manalapan.
[111] Punch…
You’re right. You have me confused for someone else.
I get paid decently for my “job”. I can do my same job for someone else, if I felt the need.
I happen to also have a lot at stake, and for that, I reap a handsome profit in addition to my salary.
My employees also do well.
Hell, just my soft equipment turnover cost is MORE than this guy offered. (Soft equipment =
211/spam spam bacon spam-
Soft equipment?
Warning, don’t leave ambiguous phrases open ended with this crowd.
JM
# 211
It usually does not hurt to hear a pitch and to keep an open mind to possible opportunities. That said, when the deal does not bring sufficient benefits to you, it is best to walk away. I wonder if he suspected that you were undercapitalized and eager to do anything to get a cash infusion.
I have been witnessing the implosion of a partnership (that never really needed to be a partnership in the first place) and it is ugly. If you can reatin total control and survive, I would be loathe to bring on any equity partners. It can be like se-xua-l (trying to avoid the moderation bin)intercourse; quite a nice experience, but one that can being great discomfort and pain in the end (either through pregnancy or STDs). If you want to get pregnant, fine. If that is not your goal, you better be careful on the front end; the same holds true for any partnership.
reatin? Oy! I need to punish my fingers for that one.
A good example of why this downturn is not going to end this year.
http://www.cnbc.com/id/23447657
Housing Crisis Puts Off First-Time Buyers
For decades, buying a home was a key step on the path to financial security for the American middle class. Home owners could count on a fixed mortgage payment rather than rising rent, take advantage of tax breaks, and build equity as their houses increased in value over time.
But with home prices falling and families losing their homes to foreclosure, some people who under other circumstances would be looking to buy their first home now see greater security in renting.
One such person is Lisa Chesnut, who lives in Tucson, Arizona, and works as an information systems coordinator. With a good job and two young sons, 29-year-old Chesnut and her husband, Bryan, look like classic first-time buyers.
They had considered it, until the the market started to slide a year ago.
“At first we thought, prices are falling, that’s good,” she said in a phone interview.
“Then we started reading about the foreclosures and the ARM rates and people losing their homes,” she said. “We thought, what if something happened where we could lose our house?”
[snip]
From MarketWatch:
Manufacturing sector contracting in February
The U.S. manufacturing sector contracted in February, the Institute for Supply Management reported Monday.
The ISM index fell to 48.3% in February from 50.7% in January. It was the lowest reading since April 2003, just after the start of the Iraq War.
Readings under 50% in the diffusion index indicate more firms are contracting than expanding. The ISM surveys purchasing managers at top corporations for their first-hand take on business at their firms. The ISM is considered one of the best and earlier coincident indicators of the economy.
212 “Warning, don’t leave ambiguous phrases open ended with this crowd.”
How very true. Before long talk will turn to PVC and dodgy bars and clubs in lower Manhattan.
From MarketWatch:
U.S. construction spending falls 1.7% in January
Spending on U.S. construction projects dropped 1.7% in January as outlays on private residential projects took another tumble, the Commerce Department reported Monday.
Economists surveyed by MarketWatch had been looking for a decline of 0.7%.
On a year-over-year basis, construction spending fell 3.3% in January.
Spending on private residential construction declined 3.0% in January, on the heels of falling by 2.6% in December.
On a year-over-year basis, construction spending on private homes was down 19.7% in January.
The decline in private residential construction spending reflects the weak state of the U.S. housing market.
Spending on private construction projects fell 2.2% in January, putting the year-over-year drop at 6.4%.
Public construction spending slipped 0.2% in January, with year-over-year outlays up 6.6%.
Meanwhile, the Commerce Deparment revised data on construction spending for December to show a drop of 1.3%, bigger that the prior estimate of a 1.1% decline.
Soft equipment?
Is that what you nicknamed your purple headed friend in the turtle neck sweater?
I have been personally buying munis since December, the rolling credit crisis creates fixed income opportunities. First seven months of 2007 was all in 6 to 12 month risk free cds at 5.25% as I did not see the need to take on risk for little prem, them from August to November rolled cds as they matured into beaten up investment grade corporates, From December till now I am rolling the maturing CDs into 2-10 year laddered munis. Who knows by the time summer rolls around I may be rolling into MBS. I bought some munis this morning at a 1.2 spread to treasuries. That is pretty wide. We will get a rate cut on March 18th and with so many people screaming to buy munis and with money markets at 2% come April this will be a short lived muni bond buying opportunity of a lifetime. The hedge funds are unwinding and new issues will hit markets that all can’t be absorbed at once as auction rates are switched to fixed rate bonds. That is a few months at best.
Problem is come March 18th I will have to stop buying and let future cash pile up in the money market as I still want to trade up in 2009 or 2010 and need some liquid cash. Plus I will need to sacrifice yield once the Fed is done cutting and let it pile up in the money market as there may be a sharp revevsal of rate cuts in 2009 and don’t want to lock in long term on any post March 18 low rates.
NEW YORK (Reuters) – New York Attorney General Andrew Cuomo on Monday will announce a deal with Fannie Mae and Freddie Mac aimed at stamping out inflated home appraisals, sources close to the negotiations said.
Cuomo’s office said Senator Charles Schumer and industry representatives also will speak at the announcement. Sources close to the negotiations said that Cuomo has reached a deal with the nation’s two largest sources of mortgage finance that would put home appraisers at arm’s length from mortgage lenders.
New York’s top attorney was close to a deal last week but the accord was put on ice after the companies’ federal regulator, the Office of Federal Housing Enterprise Oversight, said it wanted time to clear the deal with other regulators.
Cuomo had told the companies and their regulator that he wanted a deal by early this week or he would sue, sources said. OFHEO wanted more time to clear the deal with federal bank regulators, sources said.
(Reporting by Joseph A. Giannone and Patrick Rucker in Washington, editing by Gerald E. McCormick)
From MarketWatch:
Paulson: Homeowners should honor mortgage contracts
Treasury Secretary Henry Paulson had a tough message for homeowners: Don’t think about walking away from your mortgage if you can afford the payments. In a speech to the National Association for Business Economics, Paulson said people who can afford their mortgage payments but decide to walk away from their homes because of falling home prices were nothing more than “speculators.” Economists are concerned that many homeowners will choose in coming months to take part in “jingle mail” or mail their house keys back to the bank because of the falling value or rising payments as their adjustable rate loans reset. Separately, Paulson said he was not worried about inflation. He said the Fed rate cuts had helped already by lowering some of the potential pain as adjustable rate mortgages are reset.
AAA/NR 630 419578NL9 HAVERSTRAW STONY POINT N Y 3.000 10/15/28-17 5.145(M) 72.940 NY N
WOW – A NY muni at par six months now under 73 and Thormburg at 3.65 a share. We have a manic monday.
Clotpoll Says:
March 2nd, 2008 at 10:48 pm
Al-
me like watch things go boom
http://dsc.discovery.com/tv/smash-lab/smash-lab.html
Rich,
Super, was just about to post that one..
Thanks for the link posts, tied up today at the office.
# 225
As long as you are not tied up at one of John’s dodgy clubs.
This is an excellent post on CR about how “walking away” might just be an excuse for a bank bail-out by making it seem like they are the victims.
http://calculatedrisk.blogspot.com/2008/03/walking-away-and-reading-delinquency.html
#150 Rachel, I moved to NC without a job lined up. It didnt take long once I arrived before I was getting tons of calls. Since it was consulting at first for me the reasons I believe are that a lot of companies wouldnt commit to me until I was actually here. I assume they dont want to try lining people up then have them get the job and not show up. Not a problem for someone who is local already.
You can contact companies directly and a lot of the larger ones will pay for relocation or provide company housing.
As for PODS. From my understanding PODS are only as good as you pack your items. Keep in mind in order to get a POD onto a truck bed they pull it up at a pretty steep angle so your stuff needs to be packed in a way that it will survive the initial lift.
Tips for those making the move from NJ to NC:
Get a job before you register your car. If you dont NC will try to hit you with a large amount for transfer (Taxes) but if you have a pay stub its work related and they supposedly cannot tax you on the vehicle this way. The insurance will be so much lower you probably wont care anyway but to save a few hundred why not.
Expect to take the driving exam: BTW – Circular sign = Rail Road. If you read the little book they give out the rest is a no brainer and 45 mins later you have a license.
If you go into an HOA and they promise amenities but they arent in yet. Have them put the amenities in writing and have it set so the money stays with you if they dont put in the amenities in a timely manner. HOA’s are not evil although they may seem like it. The nice part about an HOA is they prevent stuff like Car repairs in the driveway and above ground pools all of which would bring down your house value. Where most people say they are evil is because Privacy fences usually arent allowed and at first we thought the same but it looks much better with open fences. You can see the hills. Obviously chain link would be a NO and the HOA would prevent anyone from putting in chain link.
The cost of movers ran us about $4500 and that was a 4BR home with the usual living, dining, Big TV, etc. We have a lot of junk so maybe 5BR home equivilent?
West Charlotte = Dont move there. Thats our Newark/Camden.
Expect funny questions like your commute will be 30-40 mins from where you live can you handle that on a daily basis?
Oh the reason I didn’t try harder on a direct company to pay for my relo is that some have a commitment to re-imburse you if you dont stick with the company for a certain period of time and I wanted to take some time off and handle getting settled without the chaos of working 40 hours and trying to get the house in order.
isn’t it funny how the AG of NY is doing more productive work on the housing front than all of the morons in Washington?
I shall start a list of listings comments that have made me LMAO.
“No need to worry about the exterior for years, thanks to the beige vinyl siding”
Mitchell, how old are you if I might ask, and in what field do you work?
If you don’t want to answer the first question, how about a range:
a) under 25
b) 25-35
c) 35-40
d) 40-45
e) 50-55
f) 55 or older
Thanks.
# 230
I hate vinyl siding. I much prefer cedar clapboard, even though the one is supposed to be maint free. Speaking about vinyl, NO not clothing, has anyone had experience with this insidious black mold spore that mulch ejects into the air? It latches onto the vinyl siding and stains it and does not wash off with soap and water or brushes. I watched someone go to war on the stuff. It is nasty.
I wonder if bayfront and oceanfront homes (e.g., in Mantoloking could meet a similar fate). The APP has been running a series of articles about thereats development poses to marshlands and the shore wildlife that relies upon the marshes.
http://www.nytimes.com/aponline/us/AP-Luxury-Homes-Fire.html?_r=1&ref=us&oref=slogin
Suspicious Fires at 4 Luxury Homes
By THE ASSOCIATED PRESS
Published: March 3, 2008
Filed at 11:28 a.m. ET
WOODINVILLE, Wash. (AP) — Fires burned four multimillion-dollar show homes in a suburb north of Seattle Monday, and authorities found a spray-painted sign purportedly left by a radical environmental group at the scene.
The sign, a white sheet that had the initials of the Earth Liberation Front in scraggly red letters, mocked claims the luxury homes on the ”Street of Dreams” were environmentally friendly, according to video images of the sign aired by KING-TV.
”Built Green? Nope black!” the sign said.
The fires started at a strip of unoccupied, furnished luxury model homes where developers show off the latest in high-end housing, interior design and landscaping. The homes are later sold.
The blazes are suspicious because they were set in multiple places in separate houses, said Chief Rick Eastman of Snohomish County District Seven. Eastman confirmed that the ELF sign was found at the scene of the fires in the community north of Woodinville, where some homes were still under construction.
[snip]
Can someone with GSMLS access please give me the status of 17 Oxford St in Montclair? The for sale sign came down and I was wondering if it ever sold or was pulled from the market. If it sold, a sale price would be great too.
Thanks.
hard (180)-
I heard firms are offering customers margin loans on ARS that have become totally illiquid. And, CNBC had some guy on this AM spreading rumors that some top-drawer holders of ARS are being allowed to liquidate their positions.
Hmmm…margin loans on financial instruments in which there’s no market, thus no valuation? The idiocy knows no bounds.
SG [232],
Power washer?
Let’s face it. No matter what you put on the side of a house, the 2nd law of thermodynamics is always trumps.
You never answered my query about Mrs. Shore and the propane tank on the barbie. Is it scary or unsightly for her?
They are alwasy at PAR, it is the interest rates that flucuate.
Clotpoll Says:
March 3rd, 2008 at 12:18 pm
hard (180)-
I heard firms are offering customers margin loans on ARS that have become totally illiquid. And, CNBC had some guy on this AM spreading rumors that some top-drawer holders of ARS are being allowed to liquidate their positions.
Hmmm…margin loans on financial instruments in which there’s no market, thus no valuation? The idiocy knows no bounds.
ROFL!!!!
I should read what finally gets posted…
Soft equipment is hardware and software that has a lifespan of 3 years or less. We also have hard equipment which may have a lifespan of, well, a lifetime.
And I’m REALLY sorry none of this involves latex or PVC or polypropylene or polystyrene or styrene or whatever youse guise got yer knickers in a bunch about :)
No purple snakes in sweaters or whatever, either :)
There was another 2 paragraphs to my orig post but suffice it to say, Shore Guy is correct. Partnerships, when they’re NOT needed, are a train wreck waiting to happen.
He tried to “steal us” and since we’re debt free and doing fine, we’re under no stress to do anything.
Listening to his pitch did us no harm (we ate very well) and came away more educated.
purple sweaters…I swear…
John (194)-
Exactly true. This phenomenon is beginning to occur right now.
NJGator,
I see an listing that was withdrawn on 2/19.
236
Re mold: Powerwashing did not to it. I suggested Bon Ami, which did work. BUT, can you just imagine the pain in the @s$ job of scrubbing a house with Bon Ami every year to keep the mold down? I dont know why it seems to focus on vinyl, but I have never seen it on anything else.
Re propane tank: She just does not want it. As I am usually the one with strong preferences, I yield to her on this.
spam [211],
I’m happy to hear you have your feet planted on solid ground. As I said, I have run into many who do not.
I don’t mean to pry, and don’t answer if you prefer, but was there some reason to look for an equity investor as opposed to approaching your bank?
Since I am going green for 2008 I also prefer Cedar houses. That way when the mortgage holders light them up for the insurance money it is much better for the enviorment.
BTW Home Depot has some junk you mix in with water and a powersprayer that kills that junk on vinal
Shore Guy Says:
March 3rd, 2008 at 12:12 pm
# 230
I hate vinyl siding. I much prefer cedar clapboard, even though the one is supposed to be maint free. Speaking about vinyl, NO not clothing, has anyone had experience with this insidious black mold spore that mulch ejects into the air? It latches onto the vinyl siding and stains it and does not wash off with soap and water or brushes. I watched someone go to war on the stuff. It is nasty.
#231
I am c) 35-40 my Wife is b) 25-35
Myself – (Messaging Engineer (E-mail/Blackberry), Programmer, Project Manager)
Wife – She was one of Ethan Allens top Interior Decorators for several years but now she is a stay at home mom with a part time job at a daycare facility where our youngest goes to school. Hence InteriorLiving.Com was her website originally.
If your younger (21-maybe 32) by all means live in NYC, MIAMI, LA, SF, for the lifestyle. You only live once. Work hard play harder. Be smart about your money and sock a good portion of it away somewhere.
Rent its obviously not the time to buy in any major metropolitan area. Maybe 2010/2011 things will start to spark in a positive direction just keep watching the board.
NC is more family orientated.
Big cities are more single life. My opinion.
I know you asked for A-F.
241
Fair enough. IMO life is too short for electric cooktops.
mr potter (204)-
Liquid? Just like cash/money mkt?
Fraudulent conveyance?
Disclaimer: I am not an attorney. I only portray one in the theatre of my mind; and, I stayed in a Holiday Inn Express last night.
245 LOL!
or bad wine.
Why does everyone on this site want to move to NC? Just put a trailer in back of your house where you can home school, hang a confederate flag and watch NASCAR while drinking Billy Beer!!!!
VMC (205)-
My arson skills are not very good. :)
# 246
At times, my business has taken me to places where a Holiday Inn Express would have been as welcome as the Plaza.
240 – Thanks, Grim!
From Bloomberg:
Fannie, Freddie to Overhaul Appraisals in Cuomo Deal
Fannie Mae and Freddie Mac, the biggest sources of financing for U.S. home loans, agreed to overhaul the way property appraisals are conducted in a deal reached today with New York Attorney General Andrew Cuomo.
The government-chartered companies will stop buying mortgages from lenders who allow brokers to arrange appraisals or who use their own in-house staff to conduct valuations. The changes will help ensure independent, reliable appraisals for homeowners and banks, Cuomo said.
“Today’s agreement with Fannie Mae and Freddie Mac begins to set right what had gone so horribly wrong in the mortgage industry — rampant appraisal fraud,” Cuomo said in a news release. “The integrity of our mortgage system depends on independent appraisals.”
Shore (215)-
First, we bring several years’ worth of buyers forward.
Now, we take the few potential buyers that are available, and push them back several years.
Here’s the profile of any NJ seller you’ll encounter for the next few years. Select up to two from this list:
1. Facing foreclosure.
2. Facing Chapter 13.
3. Divorcing.
4. Relocating corporately (probably to NC).
5. Self-relocating (John Q on the Penske Express, probably to NC).
6. Forced downsizing.
What, I am 45 and consider myself young with a good 20 years to go at work. I could see me buying a little place down south for golf etc when I am 65, but what the heck would I do down there for the next 20 years? Most guys who work in manhatten on WSJ have stay at home wives with 2 or 3 kids out in the family friendly surburbs with lots of friends. I am really only home two days a week anyhow, why would I pull them from their 7 day a week life and me from my 5 day a week life just to move to NC, what is the value proposition? I know I save cash but that is not enough.
Plus since when is Miami, LA and SF a big city where people work hard? I been to all three on business and they seem to be at the gym, beach or bar a lot more than at work.
If your younger (21-maybe 32) by all means live in NYC, MIAMI, LA, SF, for the lifestyle. You only live once. Work hard play harder. Be smart about your money and sock a good portion of it away somewhere.
#253
You forgot..
7) Death/Estate
Rich (221)-
“Paulson said people who can afford their mortgage payments but decide to walk away from their homes because of falling home prices were nothing more than “speculators.”
Wow, Hank. Tough talk. That’s gonna really stop some of these people from flipping their keys back to the bank. Good going…atta boy!
“Separately, Paulson said he was not worried about inflation.”
It’s now time for someone to administer a drug test on Paulson.
253
8) Trying to get approval for a short sale
grim (255)-
Thanks. That group’s a constant.
At least until Ray Kurzweil figures out how to make people live forever.
#248 Last time that was funny I laughed so hard I fell off my dinosaur.
Really is a trailer so bad compared to a sea of Vinyl sided homes with Brady bunch style designs that cost $500,000 with god knows what underneath that siding and worse than trailer trash living next door?
Got Jesus or Mary statues for that front lawn? What’s the quota 1 per street in NJ and one bright blue painted house?
Jam (257)-
File that under reason #1.
[260] Stucko would be so bad – especially if wasn’t designed to drain – then you have rot and mold underneath.
[260] I know Clot, but I had a situation where the people didn’t plan on forclosure – signed on to a deal and then didn’t have the money to close. They were still making their montly payments but couldn’t afford to pay off the loan for the purchase price so they couldn’t sell.
#254 By your logic your would rather be at Work than the Be with the Family, Gym, Beach, or Bar.
No surprises here..
NJ looking to move $1.4B from auction rate securities market
Facing millions of dollars in losses each month, New Jersey today laid out plans to extract about $1.4 billion in funds from the auction rate securities market, a market that last month collapsed and became prohibitively expensive.
Members of the New Jersey Economic Development Authority voted today to authorize the removal of the bonds from the auction rate market, either by refunding the debt or replacing it with other forms of credit.
The deals will probably take at least three weeks to launch, Nancy Feldman, director of the state’s Office of Public Finance, said. That means the state faces more time on the hook for double-digit interest rates and payments that have jumped by more than $1 million a week since Feb. 1.
“Obviously, we’re all on the same page,” Caren Franzini, EDA’s chief executive officer, said during a special board meeting in Trenton at which the authorizations were unanimously approved. “What we want is the least cost solution for these bonds.”
No solution is likely to be cheap, Feldman said.
Replacing the auction-rate debt with fixed-rate bonds or an alternative form of short-term borrowing will cost the state millions of dollars in professional fees and, potentially, another $100 million to cancel a series of deals called “swaps” that the state set up to try to lock-in low interest rates on the 30-year bonds.
A few comments on the NJ immigration/emigration issue.
Out of curiosity, i dug up a bunch of official numbers over the weekend and put a brief excel sheet together. From the data i collected and the sources i read i t appears that the majority of the emigrants are white and the majority of immigrants are foreign born/ US citizen non-white. Based on the average/median numbers, you need almost a 2 to 1 replacement (immigrants to emigrants) rate to maintain the income that is leaving with the emigrants.
If we take the 2006 data point you have about 80K people leaving the state and about 40K coming in + about 40K being born. The newborns wont be adding to the states coffers for about 18+ years and the best info i could find on thei mmigrants suggests that they probably only may 60% – 70% of what the emigrants do. This means that the incoming people are not replacing even HALF of the lost revenue. On top of that the incoming people are probably going to be using more state services hence a higher cost ( i have info to back this statement up, just a personal guess).
i e-mailed grim the spreadsheet and asked him to put it up, take a look if he does
264,
NJEDA will have to get in line. Even if they refund, it’s not exactly what they thought they had signed up for. The yield on whatever they issue is going to be MUCH higher than what they thought they were going to pay on those ARS through maturity.
If there is a big enough flood of this long paper (and let’s face it, whatever comes isn’t going to be insured), they could end up paying ~6%.
Re: Mold Houses in the south are routinely powerwashed with a mild chlorine bleach solution about every 18 months and always before any painting is done. I thought it might hurt the shrubbery but it didn’t.
#265 Im betting your right and those are some excellent points. The state wont mention that newborns don’t provide a taxable income instead they would hide that information in the numbers to try and show state growth.
However if Corzine has his way there will be a baby tax and children are required to work one day a week for the state of NJ to cover a portion of their school expenses.
Also are you sure from what I see on the boards everyone makes 250K in NJ. ;)
Seriously nice work.
#264 grim: No surprises here..
Nope, layoffs in muni-land to follow.
Maybe a little punctuation between “Mold” and “Houses” would have been nice.
#266 they could end up paying ~6%.
True, but they have no other chocie.
As a heads up. Both our dogs from NJ were diagnosed positive for Lyme disease. After some investigating I found that NJ has an ever increasing rise of Lyme in NJ. Not as bad as CT which in some areas they expect 100% of pets to have Lyme but it was interesting to see our dogs had this given we use the best tick and flea medicines available. Vet said they see this a lot with animals coming from the north.
#256 clot:“Separately, Paulson said he was not worried about inflation.”
Yep. aAnd Bernanke is not worried about stagflation. Looks like I am going to have to do the worrying for both of them.
I would love to be a fly on the wall when begabe or paulson are behind closed doors. Do they get a kick out of telling everyone it will all be OK, pay no attention to the man behind the curtain, while merrily moving their assets into protected locations while smoking cubans and enjoying a fine scothch? Or perhaps they are wondering how long they can hold this thing together before they get lynched and take the blame?
An additional comment on # 265
To really maintian the revenue levels, the immigrants to Nj would probably have to be closer to 3 to 1, as those 20K newborns are all expenses to the state in various forms of schooling and various forms of aid. So we have 80K wage earners leaving while only 40K wage earners are replacing them and another 40K dependents are entering the system…… does not compute
[272]
Can definitely confirm this. The tick/Lyme problem in CNJ is epidemic. We had out dogs vaccinated for Lyme (although I believe this is at best 70-80% effective) but we have been lucky so far. However, many of our neighbors w/ pets have recently been diagnosed w/ Lyme disease, a few have had to put their pets down because of it. One word of caution though, our Vet told us that the diagnostic tests for Lyme are not exactly robust or accurate, thus there may be a lot of false positives out there. Seems to be a lot of confusion about testing, vaccines, diagnosis, and treatment.
#276 JBJB
Are your neighbors or your neighbors pets being confirmed with Lyme or both the pet and owners?
Couple of poeple I know of got lyme desease… One person lives in monmoth county, and not outdoorsy type at all – she assumes she got bitten in her yard…. She has no pets.
The worst part that there is really no good treatment – this person goes to doctor, gets her antibiotic treatments every years and lyme keep coming back.
Sorry for the confusion, mostly I have heard of pets getting it, although humans can easily get it as well. I did have one colleague who got Lyme Disease, he was knocked out for a week.
#253
9) Property tax refugee
(Selling because they either can’t afford or no longer want to pay their property taxes)
#279 Thanks.
From what we learned the bullseye is becoming less common so their may be no indication of being infected.
My friend Bobby got Lyme and he was one that had no indication nor was he someone who spent much time outdoors. He is a truck driver out of Long Island and it knocked him silly till he went to the doctor and they discovered he had it.
Also we hear a lot of places that diagnose a lot of people with Lyme are coming under fire from health care agencies and questioning the places that have high positives. I guess the treatment is expensive and maybe they think since the testing is poor they might be using Lyme as a way to get extra cash? Who knows. My guess is they need better tests and soon since the outbreaks seem much more common today.
Both of my dogs have had Lyme while in NJ.
My vet routinely tests all dogs using the Idexx SNAP 3 test. She says approx 60% of the dogs in her practice come up positive. The SNAP 3Dx tests for heartworm, ehrlichiosis, and Lyme disease. Ehrlichiosis is also on the rise in this area. Frontline may get the ticks off within 24 hours, often too late to prevent Lyme.
SNAP is only good for dogs who have never had Lyme. Once diagnosed the other test is approx $120 to get an accurate reading.
280.RentininNJ Says:
March 3rd, 2008 at 1:44 pm
#253
9) Property tax refugee
(Selling because they either can’t afford or no longer want to pay their property taxes
Amen. I sold houses in 2003 & 2006 because of Property Taxes.
YES!!!!!
Actually, going to lunch and drinks afterwork is part of my job and I don’t have to pay. Plus the last time I was at a beach it was a business trip. I love being at home but come Sunday night I am soooooo looking forward to getting back to work. Kids are lots and lots of work.
The gym to me is plain stupid. I always see those 100 year old people and when they are asked how did they live that long I never hear anyone saying they went to the gym three days a week.
Mitchell Says:
March 3rd, 2008 at 12:48 pm
#254 By your logic your would rather be at Work than the Be with the Family, Gym, Beach, or Bar.
253, 255, 257, and 280.
Yup, yup, yup, and yup.
Gold Breaks Out Big Guns
http://www.minyanville.com/articles/gold-dollar-euro/index/a/16129
#284. Wow. I like my job and co-workers. Have the occasional night out with the guys from work and maybe will do the fishing trip down the NC shore or play cards but I like spending time with the wife and kids. But that’s cool John. Glad to hear your life is good and working for you.
284.
Make this statement when you are 55+, then you will understand why didn’t you go to gym. it’s not about living 100 years, it about living the way you want to live.
If you have $100 Mil and you can’t eat whatever you want coz you have diabetes/BP, then what is the use of $100 in your pocket.
Mitchell #272 and elsewhere: Thanks for your response. In your age group in IT, you were at optimal-to-last possible time to make this relocation. My spouse and I are 52, and to try to just pull up stakes and relocate and try to find employment is out of the question.
What I would have wanted to do had I lost my job in 2005 when we had layoffs was sell the house, take the $280K-ish in profit we would have made then, go to NC, buy a house for cash for $175K and get a job at Target or some such and supplement our income by investing the difference.
But I’m not going to say it’s a BAD thing that I still have my job, because it’s a good one with great benefits…and my spouse is employed too. I can’t imagine why anyone in their 30’s with kids wants to stay here indefinitely at this point. Of course it depends where you go. I would go nuts in, say, Hickory, as would most Bergenites. But in Chapel Hill there’s more live music we like than there is even in NYC.
#198
3b, Rich;
It was a joke guys, click on the link.
Guys:
What are your thoughts on EverBanks’s foreign currency CD’s ?
The Icelandic Krona’s rates are 9.93% for a 3 month CD.
Is there something we should know?
#290 ADA: Sorry!!
(268)-
“However if Corzine has his way there will be a baby tax and children are required to work one day a week for the state of NJ…”
Sorry, the Feds have beaten everybody to the punch when it comes to newborns. The Dept of the Treasury creates a straw man for every child born in the US. This straw man is the true backing for our monetary system. “Full faith and credit” still needs some sort of actual basis, and our a$$es are it.
http://www.nytimes.com/2008/03/02/business/02view.html?_r=1&ref=patrick.net&oref=slogin
Hey my blood pressure and numbers are great, I am on zero medication and never spent a night in the hospital. Yea I know I should work out but thankfully I never had too. Plus I don’t hardly every drive mostly walk so I have some health built in.
Vic (291)-
I bet you could get a helluva coupon on some Zimbabwean bonds.
#295(lot) – LOL!!
Just googled it and i now know why!
#246 Clot
YEs, same as cash. The only good thing I have going for me is that its easier to sue the big guys. For now I will enjoy my 15% triple tax free muni that they told me was the same as cash :)
Wow! Where do I sign up to get in on this?
http://cnews.canoe.ca/CNEWS/WeirdNews/2008/02/15/4850849-ap.html
Rachel #282….Brrrr….erlichiosis. That is very nasty. Now THAT I know they have in NC, because my brother-in-law has had it.
Punch-
Actually, it’s a weird situation.
We don’t NEED the money. Didn’t even want it. Never even contemplated it, actually.
Let’s just say daddy wants to “buy” junior a business; junior loves our business and since daddy is loaded to the rafters with cash, I can never say “no” to a possible nice early retirement.
Daddy forgot we didn’t approach him. He approached us. He is used to buying businesses (I’m assuming) that are under duress. He even told a story of another business he’s buying in JC that he’s waiting for a certain gov’t agency to close down and he will “swoop in” (his words, not mine)…
Like I said, if nothing else, we gained a lot of education (for free, he paid to have all the valuations done).
#297 Enjoy!! They wont be around for long.
Ok I am going to say something good about NC. Was at a kids b-day party this weekend from my daughters class. One of the guys there was 50 and had a 5 year old son, and a 12 and 14 year old daughter. Basically told me he was a highly paid truck drive till around 4 years ago and now his back gave out and now he went back to get his masters and was a NYC teacher for a year till that washed out and now he is subbing for like peanuts and none of the schools will hire him as they want kids out of school or people with connections. Heck I could have told him that way back when. Meanwhile he is supporting a family of 5 on my guess a 40K income while trying to keep up with the jones.
That guy must have at least 400K in equity on his pos house. Why NC is tailor made for that guy and I think I will tell him that next time I see him.
Well, here’s what I learned today about NC. Top ten reasons to move to NC from NJ:
1. You can just move there without a job and you’ll just start automatically getting calls from companies.
2. Vinyl sided houses are as ugly as trailers anyway, so what’s the difference?
3. Loads of time to spend with your family, NCers hardly work at all.
4. Very family oriented. As opposed to here in NJ, where we prefer to just ignore our children. In NC you will find parents who actually love and spend time with their children. Wow.
5. Dogs without Lyme disease.
6. People without Lyme disease.
7. Non-evil HOAs that won’t let you put up privacy fences, but really, it’s for your own good.
8. No Jesus statues on the lawns.
9. No Mary statues either.
10. No bright blue painted houses quotas. Because those were getting a little out of control.
IS IT TIME TO BUY AMERICAN’S MUNI-BOND FUNDS?
http://news.morningstar.com/articlenet/article.aspx?id=228788
3b
I agree……..
“Meanwhile he is supporting a family of 5 on my guess a 40K income while trying to keep up with the jones.”
John,
Nobody has to worry about keeping up with the Jones. The Jones are tapped.
Kettle1 #265
I think your analysis may be a bit misleading. How many of the 80k that left NJ in 2006 were employed, vs. children, non-working spouses, unemployed, retirees living on low fixed income and Soc. Security?
make that #266
spam [300],
I don’t mean to cause you any more heartache, because you sound well shut of this deal, but …
Now that the daddy with buckets of ducats has seen all the details and junior really likes the business, have you put yourself at risk of him funding junior to compete with you?
John,
Nobody has to worry about keeping up with the Jones. The Jones are tapped.
NO Jones have moved to North Carolina!!!
Gurus
Is there a way that ordinary folks can buy V(isa) on the primary market, or are secondary markets still a decent place to buy IPO’s. My basic research showed you can open a new account with the IPO underwriters and try to get a piece of action. Where can I find more information on this..
Ann,
ROFL
Gold Beats Financial Assets as Investors Seek Haven (Update3)
http://www.bloomberg.com/apps/news?pid=20601087&sid=a32yIjCiPM9E&refer=home
“How many of the 80k that left NJ in 2006 were employed, vs. children, non-working spouses, unemployed, retirees living on low fixed income and Soc. Security?”
Theo,
Almost 1B in tax revenue, 2007.
Ann,
You read my mind… The lyme disease was the last straw.
Even their dogs’ are better than ours.
#289 50’s are the new 30’s but I understand where you coming from it sounds like if you make the transition your looking for the retirement position using the equity your built from your home. Had you been able to do it in 2005 it would have been the optimal timing for max home equity transfer.
However I don’t believe your in a bad place unless you have to do something drastic now or the next year or two. Your just offset until the market starts turning a bit more positive again. 2010/2011 maybe baring a mild recession period. Hopefull only a few more years till things start looking upward.
Even if NC still rises in home values over the next couple of years there is SC. Which is the equivalent of working in NJ and living in PA.
Timing plays a big role. Who knows will probably see you in a couple of years. Either way I hope things work out for you.
BC Bob,
And all of that is attributable to these 80k leaving? Not just our crappy anti-business nj economy?
Wow – ING is really trying to kick the CD crowd out the door into riskier things.
6 Month 3.50% 03/01/08 Open Now
9 Month 3.25% 03/01/08 Open Now
12 Month 3.25% 03/01/08 Open Now
18 Month 3.25% 03/01/08 Open Now
24 Month 3.25% 03/01/08 Open Now
30 Month 3.25% 03/01/08 Open Now
36 Month 3.25% 03/01/08 Open Now
48 Month 3.25% 03/01/08 Open Now
60 Month 3.85% 03/01/08 Open Now
Theo,
I addressed some of your question in the spreadsheet. here is one of my main sources
http://policy.rutgers.edu/news/reports/RRR/RRR_October_2007.pdf
“The cumulative income loss during the 2000 to
2005 period was $7.9 billion. That means that the
net outflow of taxpayers from 2000 to 2005 caused
a reduction in the state’s 2005 total adjusted gross
income of $7.9 billion.”
this study looked at tax records to determine the financial impact of the people leaving
hey grim let me know if you are willing to link it. thanks:)
BC Bob Says:
I disagee a bit, right now it is trendy to cut back. We all like to stay it is a recession we are cutting back. To me showing up with a fancy new car or house is just rubbing it in the face of the leveraged masses. Therefore I am cutting back in 2008 as my way of giving back, it is right up there with me being green in 2008!!
March 3rd, 2008 at 2:53 pm
“Meanwhile he is supporting a family of 5 on my guess a 40K income while trying to keep up with the jones.”
John,
Nobody has to worry about keeping up with the Jones. The Jones are tapped.
#302 John you might want to push him into looking at South Carolina. Its about 20% cheaper than NC from a housing standpoint and strangely much cheaper in property taxes. Almost a no care in the world from a property tax standpoint.
40K income with 400K in equity he could live in NC but in his case it might be worth it for him to maximize it even more by going just across the border to SC. Would have all the benefits of NC and his 40k would go a little further.
I love where I live but there are a lot of benefits to living in SC as well and its 15-20 mins to Charlotte.
another point from the Rutgers study (page 4) that i missed.
average income of people leaving = 65,319
average income of the people entering the state = 64,425
Consider that 2X as many wage earners are leaving as wage earners entering the state, and the 40K newborns arent income generators for the state.
the study generate the numbers from federal tax returns.
315
I heard NC’s non-Lyme-disease-ridden dogs automatically learn to use the shower and the toilet upon crossing the state lines (non-evil HOA doesn’t want owners to have have to scoop). Then the dogs drive themselves to work, because the jobs are so plentiful even canines are in demand. The NC dog has truly got it going on.
#303
11. Pulled pork.
They also earn 80% of the dog bones they earned in NJ, and have a shorter commute.
Okay, I’m done.
Press release from the NAHB:
FOR IMMEDIATE RELEASE
CONTACT: Paul Lopez
202-266-8409
plopez@nahb.com
NAHB Condemns Actions of Domestic Terrorist Group Near Seattle
Washington, March 3 – Following is a statement released today by National Association of Home Builders (NAHB) President Sandy Dunn in response to the terrorist burning of several show homes in Woodinville, Wash. early Monday morning:
“The 235,000-member National Association of Home Builders strongly condemns the criminal actions of the radical and violent environmental group known as the Earth Liberation Front (ELF) in a suburb north of Seattle, Washington this morning, where at least four new homes were destroyed by arson. The FBI has previously identified ELF members as domestic terrorists and attributed many millions of dollars worth of damage to new homes and communities to this extremist group. ELF’s heinous crimes do nothing to further the cause of environmentally sensitive home building, and everything to degrade ELF’s own image in the public eye as a group of violent thugs who seek to damage and destroy property and put human lives in danger.”
“NAHB supports the continued efforts of both local and federal law enforcement in bringing these criminals to justice and putting an end to ELF’s unlawful and violent activities.”
I’ve heard a number of the NJ expat dogs grumbling about the mandatory gun dog training in NC.
Even heard they made one vegan dog hold a dead duck in his mouth, just terrible.
My dog says she won’t go. No way she’ll be caught dead riding in the bed of a pick-up she tells me. She puked on the rug when I mentioned the day-glo orange jacket.
Hey Paulson, shut the f*ck up. You and your buddies have been looting the till for years now making a fortune off of the guy driving a truck 60 hours a week and the single mom doing 12 hour over-nights as a nurse. F*ck you, Paulson. If these people have no recourse but to walk away then you and your golf buddies should chip in and lead by example. D*uche-bag.
John Says:
March 3rd, 2008 at 12:30 pm
Why does everyone on this site want to move to NC?
________________________________________________
As a transplanted Midwesterner, I can assure you–if everybody on this site wanted to move to NC, they’d quit their bellyachin’ and just do it, just like the one’s who all wanted to move to Florida, and now all want to move to South Carolina. Most people will live their entire lives without realizing that no matter where you go, there you are . . .
3B: please given me some insight to the below question….
mr potter Says: March 3rd, 2008 at 10:17 am
3b Interesting thought. I have some money managed by ‘one of the big boys’ who put me in munis. Same as cash pitch. Now its ill-liquid. I am about to pull my money because of a lackluster answer when I asked ‘why is it good enough for me to buy(on your advise) but when the auction fails its not good enough for you to buy back ?”
3B: To the extent that you own a tranche of auction put bonds, what does an individual do? I have a client with a wirehouse account, and has two NYC-related bonds that MTM at par. These things are #1 MTM correctly? #2 he is stuck, but as he is cooling his jets, he is receiving the penalty yield from the issuer?
So if he doesn’t need the money, it represent good value for now, it’s just that he cannot redeploy the funds and lock-in a long-term rate…yes?
303:
No Jesus statues — they would clash with the burning crosses.
My dog dosn’t care where we are. As long as he has a couch to sleep on :)
Things you don’t have to worry about in NJ:
Cockroaches – The South isn’t as bad as Hawaii but if you don’t have them now, you will.
Tornadoes – Can kill you instantly – being impaled on a 2×4 really messes up your day.
Swearing – Down here, swearing is verboten unless you want to be referred to in the worst possible terms, i.e. “His mama didn’t raise him right.”
Terms of Address: In NJ, you are not addressed by neighborhood children as “Miss Lucy” or “Mr. Jim.” It’s really a sign of respect, but it takes some getting used to.
All that aside, I do like living here.
Nice report Kettle1 I’m still reading through.
Story about moving to Florida once.
I tried making the transition to Florida once with a job at the capital building in Tallahasse working with the state house of reps. Since I wasn’t sure about the move I took my possessions and moved them into storage in NJ and loaded the car with my clothes, computer, and basic essentials. I rented a room in a furnished place with a guy who was truly a character. All I had to buy was a mattress. This minimized my move to essentially gas and hotel for a few days then onto rent. This allowed me to evaluate Tallahassee as well my brother lived in Jacksonville at the time. I never really fit in either Florida locations and eventually moved back in 9 months to make things short.
Florida was very different from moving to NC. Many people down there didn’t understand the northern mentality and I really didn’t have anything in common with anyone down there. Everything was out of place. I did a little better in Jacksonville but still being in Florida I felt while the weather was excellent the people were from another planet and never moved at a pace that I could tolerate. Florida was painful. I made the right choice by leaving my stuff in storage instead of fully committing to FL. No loss other than time spent in the area. Probably did lower my IQ a few points because of it though.
Moving to NC was very different while its a different stage in my life its a lot different from my experience from FL. As grim has pointed out there are a ton of NJ moving here. If its not NJ its PA or NY. All of which have a similar mentality about them. This made the transition easy because you instantly have things in common with a lot of the people down here. Dont think your going into hillbilly hell its essentially the same as moving into a NJ suburb that is all new with much more positive people.
Yes NC dogs are much better than NJ. Has any dog from NJ ever won the Westminster kennel award? Best radioactive glow goes to. Just kidding it was a heads up on Lyme. Its a problem more prevalent in CT and spreading south. Hope you and your dogs don’t have it.
Ann (303)-
Byatch slap that troll!
#327 Nice.
NC where dogs are dogs.
NJ what color Gucci purse do you carry your tinkerbell dog in?
:)
Bubble,
I was born and raised here and love my life here. My wife is from PA and she loves it here too, so were not going anywhere. I just enjoy poking fun at Mitchell’s daily sales pitch. I imagine NC would come up once every 3 months or so if Mitchell wasn’t campaigning here on a daily basis.
Does anyone know of a good analyst write-up that I can grab for free (or send me a doc) that has written a bear case for Citigroup even as it trades at $23? This post does not represent any opinion that I have, but I need to build the case to someone to diversify….
http://www.bloomberg.com/apps/news?pid=20601103&sid=a2PU3tvcSmks&refer=us
Things which started under Vikram Pandit are already in trouble. What else do you need.
Asset-Backed, Commercial-Mortgage Spreads Met `Ebola’ (Update3)
By Jody Shenn
March 3 (Bloomberg) — The extra yields investors demand on bonds backed by assets from commercial mortgages to credit cards rose to records last week, as the debt slump prompts banks, hedge funds and other investors to shun the securities.
The extra yields, or spreads, have surged since mid-2007 as a weakening U.S. economy erodes confidence in the bonds’ credit quality and as losses on debt investments lead to forced sales and reduced demand. The spread widening may herald more losses for the world’s largest banks, which have reported more than $180 billion in mortgage-related losses.
“People are calling it financial Ebola,” Ed Steffelin, a senior managing director at GSC Group in New York, said in a telephone interview last week, referring to the deadly, contagious virus named after the Ebola River Valley in the Democratic Republic of the Congo.
MJ Says:
March 3rd, 2008 at 4:10 pm
Things which started under Vikram Pandit are already in trouble. What else do you need.
a real write-up by an analyst reflecting the bear case….
#336 Doyle I lived in NJ most of my life as well but you need to know when something is done. NJ is done. Like that one burger on the grill that resembles coal but is still sitting on the grill.
Doesn’t matter where the people of NJ are going to. What is amazing is why no one is coming back or moving to NJ. I’m just one person who can speak from experience on the move?
What’s worse is a lot of companies are pulling out of NJ. If it weren’t for NY/PA then NJ would be toast. NY is almost a better deal than NJ thanks to Corzine.
What happens when Pharma starts to pull out of NJ? Its gonna happen. NJ Taxes will chase away business in NJ. If Corzine cant tax the people enough he will screw the businesses. They will do like everyone else and pull out of NJ.
3:53 pm post in moderation. And I was pointing out some of NJ’s good points too.
Chi [337],
Try to get your hands on Meredith Whitney’s analysis.
http://globaleconomicanalysis.blogspot.com/2008/02/analyst-meredith-whitney-asks-banks.html
Mitchell,
Thanks for your input, next time I need your advice I’ll ask for it. I’m in good shape, please don’t worry about me.
chifi 338
As a financial laymen i am highly skeptical of that forecast. with inflation running rampant and the extensive weakness in the markets, i would be shocked to see that happen.
#330 chgofinance: he should just sit tight for at the moment, and collect the penalty rate for as long as possible.
He should continue to enter a bid to sell at every auction, therby ironically helping to ensure the auction fails, and enhance his ability to get the penalty rate.
One of the indexes that is used to determine the penalty rate is the JJ Kenny index rate, which is reset on a weekly basis.
You can tkae that rate and then multiply it by say 100%, 2005 etc. All this infor is in the Official Statement.
It willt ake time to put together new fixed rate deals to retire the auction bonds, so he might as well enjoy it, if the does not need short term access to the monies invested.
#338 chgo: Are these guys kidding? And they do not even give any kind of scenario as to why that will happen. I think rates may tend lower, but probably in a tight band.
I just do no see a scenario wheereby they would get to be that low. if they doe, well heck I will take it.
Much lower prices, and really low rates, sure I will take it, no problem.
ChiFi (337)-
“Does anyone know of a good analyst write-up that I can grab for free (or send me a doc) that has written a bear case for Citigroup even as it trades at $23?”
How about the Book of Revelations?
(340)-
“Financial Ebola”?
Catchy.
Mitchell-
I’d rather be bitten by a Lyme tick than live amongst wood ticks.
#351 That showed me. Try hitting me with your purse next time it will do more damage than your comments.
“Has any dog from NJ ever won the Westminster kennel award?”
Why yes! Champion Darbydale’s All Rise Pouch Cove!
“Josh won the audience’s heart at the 2004 Westminster Kennel Club Dog Show when he let out a big, bellowing “Woof” right in the middle of Madison Square Garden. Now happily retired and living with his owners, David and Peggy Helming, in New Jersey, the 8-year-old Newfoundland still travels occasionally and works as a therapy dog with senior citizens when time permits, but spends most of his days as personal greeter in the Helming home.”
#353 Kudos Ann.
Sorry, off topic.
Trying to get a loan. Chase quote me 6.00% if I have a Chase checking account. BA quote me 6.00% with 1.17 points. Looking at bankrate.com and there is ebandMortgage which quote for 5.625% but with $1375 application fee.
I have excellent credit and will have 40% downpayment. Someone please suggest me a reliable bank with better rate.
Thanks in advance.
007
Mitchell (352)-
I would, but your momma gave me her purse last night, and I like it much better than mine.
Dear 007 to quote grandmaster flash, “don’t do it”
#356 Momma jokes? Thats classy NJ what 80’s?
My mom would strap one on and call you bitch.
007 (355)-
All lenders borrow money from the same place, and they all sell those loans to the same place (Fannie/Freddie, for conforming).
Assuming that you’re going for a conforming loan, just throw out the stuff that seems too high and the stuff that sounds too good to be true. Then, shop the whole loan package, not just the rates. Rates are only a fraction of the story, when there are lenders out there that can use hidden fees to slowly bleed you out.
Doyle Says:
March 3rd, 2008 at 4:02 pm
Bubble,
I was born and raised here and love my life here. My wife is from PA and she loves it here too, so were not going anywhere. I just enjoy poking fun at Mitchell’s daily sales pitch. I imagine NC would come up once every 3 months or so if Mitchell wasn’t campaigning here on a daily basis.
________________________________________________
I stand corrected, Doyle–it’s probably fairer to say that most people realize that wherever you go, it’s going to be one thing or another; and clearly (since I’ve moved myself) I don’t have a problem with people choosing to live in one place over another. It’s just that sometimes the “grass-is-greener” whinging get’s a little hot and heavy here . . .
Mitchell (358)-
You must have me confused with your father.
http://www.politico.com/news/stories/1107/6784.html
Mitchell-
Aren’t you missing “NASCAR Today” right now?
#361. Clotpoll = NJ’s finest.
Now I remember why I moved. NC Trailer parks starting to look like Princeton.
Bubble,
I hear ya, I was probably agreeing with you more than anything. I think the people who leave just get up and go, they probably aren’t swayed by a NC Realtor angling for biz on an NJ blog…
I would direct the FBI to the owners financials and see what comes!!!
http://breakingnews.nypost.com/dynamic/stories/L/LUXURY_HOMES_FIRE?SITE=NYNYP&SECTION=HOME
Mitchell #316: Not in the eyes of employers is 50 the new 30. 50 is the new 50, and with half the hiring managers being Gen-X and wishing we would all just up and die already, it’s not a move that you risk as long as you have a job here.
I have family in the Chapel Hill area (including a sister who’s a realtor) so when the time comes it’s a logical place to go. Then I have to convince DH, who just cannot believe that anyplace in NC is a place where they don’t marry their sisters. I tell him we have that too in NJ, like in Sussex County. *snerk*
My sister doesn’t look for work on an NJ blog; she gets plenty down there. She’s been doing it for 20 years and she’s very good at what she does, with many repeat clients.
I’m not a Realtor despite positive talk on NC and owning a few free real estate posting sites. I’m also a programmer and that’s a hobby but I might be selling them off to a group of Realtor’s soon. Decent offer was made to me recently but I might want to sell the website engine on the side so I have to read through what they want with the purchase.
#367 Jill, Chapel Hill is very nice. We would have wound up in Raleigh/Durham area but Charlotte for us and the kids seemed to offer a little more for their age group. I know you’ll love it there. Best of luck to you.
365 Doyle
Mitchell is an NC realtor?
Now it all makes sense.
For the record, I don’t think the grass is greener in NC. I am scared to death of moving. I am giving up an amazing job and taking a chance. Pretty much terrible timing if you believe we are heading for a recession.
The job market sucks in the RTP, NC area. I don’t care what anyone says. I have been looking for months and the jobs just don’t exist. I check monster daily and maybe once a week find something almost acceptable. I gave up months ago on finding a good job that would pay relo.
My biggest fear is NC will become FL. I grew up in Ft Lauderdale and hate it down there because of the same type of people who are now moving to NC. I feel more isolated from the masses since I will be in Chapel Hill. It is nothing like the rest of the RTP area…it has charm!
The best thing NJ gave me is great job growth which allowed me to save large amounts of money. This savings is the reason why I feel comfortable enough to do a move w/out any hope of finding employment in the next year. Besides, if we can grow the restaurant I don’t have to work again in corporate america.
ps-they don’t have dogs in NC; they have dawgs.
I own a Technical site so I guess I am a geek.
I own a dating site so I guess I am single
I own a fitness site so I guess I like spandex.
I own several real estate sites so I guess Im a realtor.
Grim bought my deals and bargains domain from me some time ago but I will be returning to that area with something different.
Plus I own a barrage of employment sites too that deal with the finance sector so I guess I am an employer.
I think I have 353 in total now? Wow I’m versatile.
Oh well take your choice. Whatever helps you sleep at night.
[309] Punch:
They wanted that. Junior was smart enough to realize it cannot be done before they tried. However, let me say this: they did try a smaller version of their own startup and it failed. Junior is not a “bootstrapper-ground floor” kind of person. He’s a “ride the elevator to the top floor on his first day” kind of person.
And it’s *OUR business* he wants… not just any one of the businesses in our industry…
He wants *our* gig. We spent long and hard making it literally a one of a kind that you cannot easily duplicate. (This is not a joke…)
We have friends in our industry all over the country and some say right to our face they’d be scre**d if they had to compete with us.
Let me say it this way: We’ve “branded” ourselves in a unique way and you cannot buy the reputation we have…you could re-create it, but it takes years and junior doesn’t have the skill, as I said.
We’re not shut of the deal, yet…as it was presented, yes, that’s a non-starter. But he can always add a few more zeros and get serious.
And I’ve decided…no partners. He either buys us out lock, stock and barrel or stays home.
Anybody here know anything about predatory towing? Our van got pulled from the school parking lot across from our compex on Sat. morning. Along with 14 other residents’ vehicles. Not enough spaces at our complex and town prohibits overnight parking. Anyway, I can’t find the laws on fee limits that the tow truck operators can charge. $305.00 seemed kinda high.
Jill (367)-
Sadly, replying to this annoying troll is like waving warm road kill in front of a buzzard.
NC is full of losers. Enjoy life in NJ until u r 60+ and then go to NC. If you live/work in NJ then you can live anywhere. try getting 150K+ jobs in NC. Not going to happen
Mitchell,
I stand corrected, you’re not a realtor, just annoying.
My mistake.
I know it’s not an analyst ChiFi, but the author’s bio says he’s not a diversity fan.
http://seekingalpha.com/article/66460-will-citigroup-go-to-the-teens
Do a search at SA for ‘C’ or refer your client to Roubini’s blog ;)
Beans in the teens…and C will be, too.
Mitchell click through advertising is paying your bills? Hahaha, what is the going rate these days for say the word “mortgage”. I hope you bought something reasonable down there in NC because internet advertising revenue is taking a big hit right now, and is headed south of the mason dixon line real fast.
Do you take advantage of people’s dyslexia and come up with names like “raeltor.com” and turn around and sell that click for 1/10th of a cent?
How many “naughty” click though sites do you own you freak?
# 303 “As opposed to here in NJ, where we prefer to just ignore our children. ”
Who in their right mind in NJ would “ignore” their children when thay could have them sitting in front of a sewing machine cranking out piecework to help pay the taxes?
# 358 “My mom would strap one on and call you bitch.”
How does one strap on a purse? Is that one of those silly backpack purse things?
Clot,
Beans will trade higher than C this year.
they, even
Shore (381)-
I bet Mitchell sports a murse (man-purse).
OT: The Jets are on fire….what the f— are they doing with Woody’s money?
…and they don’t want to pay Coles?
OT: so is Bryan Thomas, Victor Hobson and who else is toast?
can we cease and desist with the NJ vs. NC comparisons? Seems to come up at least once a week on here, and it’s worthless and annoying.
Mitchell – we get it. You LOVE NC. I enjoyed a fantastic summer there and i agree with a lot of what you say. But for the love of NASCAR, please quit trying to force it on everyone else? It ain’t working.
If everyone in NJ can deal with the laughably high taxes, the the potential for bankruptcy in the near future, and the small home for big price (just a few of the state’s MANY flaws) then they probably WANT to be a part of it.
Us – we’re off to Bucks County, PA in a month! Promise not to shove it down everyone’s throat once the move happens. Will still frequent this board daily to try and do what everyone says not to do – time the market. The board saved me once (selling my flip before the s*** hit the fan), perhaps it’ll happen again?
New York is about to lose two “young and bright innovators” – at Pret likes to call them. (That’s me and the wife.)
If I were a betting man, I’d say that North Carolina is destined to become Atlanta. Heh.
Hi guys,
Can anybody help with a few GSMLS #s? I just want to know what sold and for how much. Thanks a lot.
2472896
2474669
2443695
2456185
2443584
Shore Guy (43)
New construction with ocean views.
#387 – well said.
Ragged (388)-
In the end, we’re all dead.
“All lenders borrow money from the same place, and they all sell those loans to the same place (Fannie/Freddie, for conforming).”
I just got sold to Countrywide. I suppose it will be BOA messing things up in a few weeks anyway. But I’ll get to go through the joys of another BOA merger.
#269 munis are going to follow MBS?
try finding work in CDOs, MBS allocations, any type of MBS middle office. Unless you are a big hitter (top producing salesman or trader) you are praying you don’t get laid off.
Sorry, no “data” to back this up. Just 3 months of knocking on doors and talking to former coworkers.
And those 3 months were in late summer early fall before things got real bad.
Bloodbath,
That’s cool and all that you found somewhere you want to live, but come on now, Bucks is not a big rebellion! : )
Are you going to work in Bucks too?
390
If it is not too prying, was it at Wesley Grove? We looked at a “penthouse” unit there and liked it, and the inside parking. But, we did not like the anti-development graffiti and valdalized windows as well as the lack of progress on phase II and the south-bronx look across the street. Part of me wishes that we had made a deal, the other part of me thinks it is too big a chance. With Kushner leaving, perhaps things will move along. I hope so. We have not been in any North Beach units.
#321 Mitchell
West Charlotte sucks. university area isn’t much better. I also thought North Tryon (tyron?) the main drag in downtown Charlotte was pretty creepy once you go a few miles from the big office buildings.
Didn’t like SC. Total lack of zoning law enforcement. I drove around where the Baker’s used to have their little empire and is now a new development. Development looks nice but right across the street was a trailer wedding chapel, a junk yard.
Ballyntine, Huntersville, Concord all are great. Kind of like new sections in Princeton area. Houses are 1/4 what the same house would be in NJ.
Couldn’t find a good asian supermarket though. found a nice Korean one over by Pine something. Most of the ones we found were in hoods and had bars on the windows. There was an asian stip mall in a creepy area. Would only want to shop there in daylight while carrying.
[373] prtraders2000:
1. They have to have their rates posted at their business. You can check when you get your car.
2. If the police called ’em, they have to have bid the contract and the rates are set in stone. They can charge no more than the rates agreed to, you can find out the rates from the entity that called to have you towed.
3. They get the high rates because it’s NJ and impounding a vehicle gets tow operators shot, clubbed, hit and worse, even… :)
4. The insurance on a tow vehicle can be more than double your mortgage payment each month. (Assuming 20% down with 7% financing at 30 yr fixed ;) Everyone screams about a ding and and thinks their ship came in.
5. They have to provide a locked yard for your car while it’s impounded, they pay for that, too. So get your car right away. Daily fees are a lot because they’re liable for your car while it’s in the possessin and believe me, they don’t want your car. Oh, and they had to pay the guy to come get your car. And diesel is at $3.60/gallon.
6. Seems cheap to me.
7. Don’t park there anymore.
;)
duh….
*their possession
clot
“In the end, we’re all dead.”
Never truer than with respect to Edward II
http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Edward_II_of_England#Death
Like my job these days.
Hope to resurface soon – cheers to all
#388 Very true. I really liked Concord in 05. Went back summer 07. Much of the woods and farmland were being turned into housing. I think in 10 years the Northern charlotte area will look like a new Edison/Piscataway.
It’s still nice now, but add 50k people a year who are fleeing gridlock and 10 years later you will have gridlock.
I want to check out Austin and San Antonio this summer. If i don’ like that area will look at New Mexico.
If that sucks will pray San Fran has a huge crash so we can move there. If I’m going to have a high cost of living and a small place I want to be excited about the area.
PGC (393)-
Countrywide’s payoffs and wire routing instructions all have Bank of America’s imprint. Don’t know what that’s about, but the mortgage company in my office just noticed it for the first time today.
Also, Countryslide’s NJ VP got the ax last week. My guess would be that they’re cutting dead weight, hoarding cash and cleaning things up as much as possible before the deal closes. Perhaps having BofA process payoffs allowed them to let go a department.
Dude! From Fast Money tonight:
Foreclosure Fiestas. Police in Bakersfield, California broke up a drunken party taking place in a foreclosed home over the weekend, a scenario that has been playing out across the country as more homes are left abandoned.
OMFG! Now, I’m watching Suze Orman, pumping munis. And, she makes a lot of sense.
What are you waiting for, Clot?
http://www.countrywide.com/purchase/f_reo.asp
103 possible locations in NJ!
#403 clot
I have a lot of time for Suze. She preaches to the masses at times and can be a bit patronising. The underlying message is sound. If you can’t afford it or you can’t understand it, you shouldn’t go near it.
Brokers hate her as she has most of her money (25mil) in TIPS
Apologies for responding to posts multiple threads later- I finally managed to be “extracted” but only because my normal works was being deep-sixed..
ChiFi,
Basically that region has been a huge driver of profit/revenue- and of that, capital markets business there was an outsized piece. Over the past years it’s grown incredibly, outpacing other regions by orders of magnitude (e.g. 100s of percent) for a number of years.
Of course law of numbers would suggest you can’t just go parabolic forever, but even so it seems everything dried up so suddenly it’s taken people very much off guard. Not sure if this is due to structured products or which particular items hitting a wall, but I have to believe we’re not alone in seeing this development–
We’ll have to see if this is an anomaly or not, but since I’m seeing similiar slowdowns now within the US cap mkts given my earlier referenced career field-trip, it seems there is likely some correlation amongst it all..
Marito,
None sold, all but 2456185 went under contract, 2456185 was withdrawn
#405
How big will that list be in 6 months? 250? 500?
How soon before Summit, Morristown, the hoight toity places join that list? I’m betting by the summer.
Not to get it going again but 16 foreclosures in Charlotte NC, 6 for Newark NJ held by Countrywide Hmmmmm………
morristown hoity toity? Uh…..sure.
3b
Firms will be closing their muni auction desks, and by the timw it is over I would expect that one of the big firms bags the muni business entirely.
____________
3b,
From what I see I think it’s entirely possible the issuers stop playing in this altogether…there’s still very little liquidity, people are spooked, after being worked like dogs for weeks/months on end- I fear these folks could certainly see their desk(s)shut down. I hope not, esp now after I’ve met/become friends with them and it’s taken on a very personal dimension, but my gut says it won’t end well…
All I can say….and someone on here might agree…life in NJ is amazing….home is home.
Hey sybarite, thanks a lot!
dreamtheaterr Says:
March 1st, 2008 at 9:38 pm
I don’t own any muni funds but some closed-ended funds do look a bit tempting to nibble.
———–
Dream
Just fyi, perhaps not directly relevant, but in the ARS realm the ones seeing almost zero liqudity are the closed end funds….. the straight muni debt, closer to plain vanilla, with higher yields are the only things (sells) getting filled.
CEFs have lots of holdings, too complicated, how do you figure out what the hell is going on with underlying ratings when monolines are on the ropes? They’ve become toxic, even issuers with the best names are failing auctions consistently…
Steve,
Yes, when all is said and done, RE will be a step child compared to this mess.
______
Yeah, so true BCB. Right now I’m just adding to my f– you acct, which right now is more like protection/survival money for the rainy days- which for my firm at least, seem pretty likely to ripple throughout…
ChiFi,
P.S.- feel free to get my email from Grim if you wanted more detail …
thx
Steve
#405 Still thinking about that REO list. Now if I see something tasty and they’ll take a 35 off lowball offer, maybe I’ll buy something in NJ before next decade.
Final anecdote:
Talking with a veteran trader today, he (as many of us have speculated here) sees the very real possibility of a failure of a large money center bank….
Intested to read recently (sure it was likely reported here as well) that the Feds are now requiring the largest banks to report their mortgage holdings on a regular basis; obviously all this has them quite unsettled–
# Ann Says:
March 3rd, 2008 at 8:04 pm
Bloodbath,
That’s cool and all that you found somewhere you want to live, but come on now, Bucks is not a big rebellion! : )
Are you going to work in Bucks too?
We’ll rent to start … wife has a job where she’ll work in NJ, and I’ve got a business that i recently started and i can do from home. If it fails, the plan is to get a state job pushing papers, teaching, whatever – so i can collect a pension. :)
We now know that the end of the world is nigh….
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=y1zJxyPPK8c
There was a listing in Chatham Twp for $829k that was listed for the longest time. Did that go UC? It was on Candace Lane. Sorry didn’t keep the MLS #.
Hard Place,
Went UC 2/1/08 anticipated to close on 4/30.
Apparently the housing bubble was a big display of machismo: http://www.palmbeachpost.com/blogs/content/shared-blogs/palmbeach/realestate/entries/2008/03/03/housing_bubble_all_about_sex_b.html
I love women with McMansions, H3s, and 60 mile commutes.
On the noble topic of predatory towing, I live in an apartment complex with a paltry 12 guest spots for 400+ tenants. Parking quickly turns to anarchy because people park wherever they can. I can’t tell you how many times I’ve seen visitors getting towed. Two of the spots are designated for prospective new residents to park while visiting the leasing office, and my gf has seen people getting towed from there for parking overnight. There were rumors of a kickback scheme involving residents of a unit overlooking the lot and the tow truck company with the contract: the spotters would get kickbacks from the tower for calling in improperly parked cars. Only in NJ would a 400+ complex only set up 12 guest spaces, and have a kickback scheme to boot.
ah the woes of community parking….yet another thing I hated about renting….especially in crowded areas…..something about coming home and hitting that electric garage door opener….and going under the house into a 2 car garage…..damn near worth the cost of ownership right there.
Note: not shilling for real estate purchases ….just remembering how much renting sucked.
Re: 402
Hey, at least the homes aren’t being bought for pot farms anymore.
Naw, dude, I ain’t kidding. Check out 2006:
http://cbs13.com/local/Stockton.sub.divisions.2.472651.html
PGC (405)-
Can’t blame that battle-ax for clipping an easy coupon. TIPS were made for people like her.
ChiFi (420)-
Yep. That’s definitely one of the signs of the Apocalypse.
Suze:
You know if I won that huge mega millions from last week thats probably what I would do with most of it for at least the first year.
Wait for people to forget my name, and get a really good lawyer/accountant.
Thanks Sybarite. That house on Candace Lane I remember be listed originally in the high 900’s and than all the way down to $829k after sitting for over a year. Curious if they closed near final LP or was it under $800k.
I am piling into the munis as well, thru closed end funds. They are selling at a discount to NAV, and the NAVs are depressed, so these are at a HUGE discount, particularly in NJ.
Effective yield is about 5.2%, and the tax equiv. yield is nearly 7.2% I have not moved into NJ yet, but even if I stay in Bucks Co. for taxes, my yield is still over 7%
So, if you need to park cash long term (short term is too volatile) then I cannot see how this yield can be beat, and if the prices return closer to par, a nice cap gain (alas, taxable) as well.