From the Wall Street Journal:
Blacklisting Hits Home Sellers
By DAWN WOTAPKA and MARSHALL ECKBLAD
March 5, 2008; Page B5A
In the nation’s worst-hit real-estate markets, home sellers are suffering a new blow: They are being blacklisted by lenders.
As property values decline and credit markets contract, home lenders nationwide are growing ever more unwilling to finance home purchases in sharply declining housing markets, driving prices down further. In some cases, lenders have ruled out entire geographic regions and property types altogether, most notably high-rise condominiums in South Florida and Las Vegas.
Lenders including BankUnited, a unit of BankUnited Financial Corp., and Vertice, a wholesale lending unit of Wachovia Corp., have elected not to lend to some areas or properties because of declining prices. Countrywide Financial Corp., the nation’s largest mortgage lender, considered a similar move last week before reversing course, and other lenders have tightened underwriting guidelines for slumping markets so as to make financing nearly unattainable.
There are “lists circulating” from banks, says Peter Zalewski, a broker with Condo Vultures Realty LLC, and those lists are pushing down prices when news of the black-marked properties spreads.
…
Moreover, the blacklisting isn’t always obvious. “We don’t call it blacklisting,” said an official at a large bank. “We just don’t write the loan.”The banks are acting to protect themselves in a steep downturn. But the drying up of loans threatens to create a self-perpetuating cycle.
“If mortgage credit dries up, then prices are going to fall more,” says Morris Davis, a professor of real estate and urban land economics at the University of Wisconsin-Madison’s School of Business and a former economist at the Federal Reserve Board.
…
Blacklisting isn’t redlining — the illegal practice of restricting lending on a socioeconomic basis — so it doesn’t run afoul of fair-lending laws, says Alexander Bono, a partner at Schnader Harrison Segal & Lewis, a law firm in Philadelphia. Banks are allowed “to identify a county when it’s based upon something other than socioeconomic conditions” and then change its stipulations for lending there, Mr. Bono says.Even when banks haven’t officially ruled out entire markets, the stipulations they use before lending in such areas are becoming very stringent, and can leave mortgage credit all but off-limits.
…
In December, Fannie Mae, the nation’s government-sponsored mortgage-lending behemoth, issued an announcement titled “Maximum Financing in Declining Markets.”“When a property is located in an area identified as declining,” the announcement says, the lender originating the loan must reduce the maximum amount it could otherwise lend to that buyer by 5%.
In healthy markets, New York’s J.P. Morgan Chase & Co. will currently lend borrowers a mortgage equal to as much as 90% of a property’s value. For borrowers in states that have declining markets, however, the bank reduces that maximum, says Tom Kelly, a spokesman for the bank. J.P. Morgan then reduces that level even further for borrowers in the worst declining markets, Mr. Kelly says, though he declined to provide specifics.
CitiMortgage, a wholesale lending operation of another large Wall Street bank, Citigroup Inc., maintains a list of “declining market areas” that red-flags dozens of counties in more than 10 states. Citi reduces the amount it will lend for properties in those counties “by at least 5%,” the document says.
“We routinely review our credit parameters, including maximum loan-to-value ratios, in declining markets,” says Mark Rogers, a CitiMortgage spokesman.
One silver lining: For “all-cash buyers,” Mr. Zalewski says, the lists are “heaven sent.”
Buyers who have cash “can use that to negotiate,” he says: “If you don’t sell to us, who are you going to sell to?”
From Bloomberg:
Auction-Rate Bond Failures Approach 70%, Show No Sign of Easing
Auction-rate bond failures show no sign of abating after investors abandoned the market for variable-rate municipal securities.
Almost 70 percent of the periodic auctions in the $330 billion market failed this week as investment banks stopped buying the securities investors didn’t want. Yields on the debt averaged 6.52 percent as of Feb. 28, up from 3.63 percent before demand evaporated in January.
States from New York to California and lawmakers including House Financial Services Committee Chairman Barney Frank are attempting to revive the market. Rising yields are pinching state and local governments just as a slowing economy and falling property values slash tax revenue by more than $6.6 billion, according to a report by the U.S. Conference of Mayors.
“Even if the auction-rate market survives, we’re not going to see the kind of rates we’re used to,” said Roger Roux, chief financial officer at Rady Children’s Hospital in San Diego, which spent an additional $940,000 on its auction bonds since rates reset as high as 15 percent last month.
From the WSJ:
Credit Agricole Swings to Loss On Write-Downs
By NICOLAS PARASIE
March 5, 2008 3:08 a.m.
PARIS — French bank Credit Agricole SA Wednesday said write-downs related to the credit crisis caused a hefty net loss in the fourth quarter.
The Paris-based bank said its fourth-quarter result plunged to a €857 million ($1.3 billion) loss from a €1.06 billion net profit in the year-earlier period. That figure is worse than analyst expectations of a loss of €480 million.
Agricole cited €3.3 billion in write-downs at its investment bank Calyon as the main driver for the quarterly loss. The figure is above the €2.5 billion in write-downs disclosed by the bank in December.
Agricole’s chief financial officer, Bertrand Badre, said the company took €700 million in additional write-downs in the fourth quarter to cover its exposure to bond insurers.
Fed Admits Missteps on Banks
By DAMIAN PALETTA
March 5, 2008; Page A11
WASHINGTON — A top Federal Reserve official said the central bank failed to fully appreciate risks that financial institutions were taking before the recent credit problems, and it is reviewing its regulations.
During a sometimes-contentious Senate hearing, Fed Vice Chairman Donald Kohn said the central bank is likely to become “more forceful” with the financial institutions it supervises. Mr. Kohn didn’t explain what new actions the Fed might take, but he did warn banks to rely less on the assessments of credit-rating agencies.
After years of watching the banking industry make record profits, regulators are now scrambling to deal with turmoil stemming from problems in the U.S. housing market. Large U.S. banks have had to write down the value of assets by billions of dollars, including slivers of mortgage-backed debt that many believed were almost risk-free.
Mr. Kohn’s comments mark one of the few times that a top Fed official has acknowledged shortcomings in regulation as a cause of the mess.
Are we going to see more of this?
From Reuters:
U.S. fund accused of fraud linked to subprime
A Salt Lake City hedge fund adviser and its principals were charged with using much riskier trading strategies than described to investors, resulting in the near-total loss of assets in two funds, the U.S. Securities and Exchange Commission said on Tuesday.
The SEC filed a lawsuit accusing Thompson Consulting Inc, Kyle Thompson, David Condie and Sherman Warner of fraud, saying that the fund’s deviations from stated investment strategies — including subprime-related investments — resulted in losses of about $60 million (30 million pounds).
The SEC is seeking civil penalties and disgorgement of ill-gotten gains against the defendants.
From Reuters:
Fremont Gets Default Notices, Survival Threatened
Fremont General Corp (FMT.N: Quote, Profile, Research) said on Tuesday it has received default notices related to $3.15 billion of subprime mortgages it sold last March and said its survival could be threatened if it were sued.
The Brea, California-based parent of Fremont Investment & Loan said the notices from the mortgage purchasers concern its failure to maintain a $250 million tangible net worth. Tangible net worth equals total assets minus liabilities and intangible assets such as goodwill, copyrights, patents and trademarks.
Fremont said that because of “limited available liquidity,” it can neither deposit cash into a reserve account, nor provide a letter of credit to satisfy a tangible net worth covenant associated with guarantees it provided in the loan sale. It said it is in talks for a waiver.
From Reuters:
US Bank Regulators Wary of Next Set of Credit Woes
U.S. regulators said on Tuesday they are watching credit cards and commercial construction loans for signs they may be the next trouble spots as strained financial markets constrain credit.
The housing downturn, with its epicenter in the subprime mortgage market, remained atop the list of concerns. But banking regulators and Federal Reserve officials expressed concerns that credit risks may extend beyond mortgages.
From the New York Times:
Hope When?
A report issued Monday by Hope Now, the White House-backed mortgage industry group formed to help hard-pressed homeowners, makes one thing clear: homeowners aren’t getting the help they need.
From July 2007 through January, Hope Now helped 638,000 subprime borrowers. But nearly 70 percent of them were simply given a chance to catch up on late payments — a quick fix that means borrowers can easily fall behind again, especially if interest rates rise.
The remaining 195,000 borrowers received loan modifications. Hope Now did not specify how the loans were altered. If, say, the loans’ introductory rates were extended briefly, a common fix according to borrower advocates, homeowners may simply default later. For those who owe more on their mortgages than their houses are worth, rate adjustments may not be the best medicine.
…
The report’s lack of specificity clouds even its good news. In January, the pace of modifications picked up, to 45,320. If the acceleration continues and if the loans are modified in ways that make them affordable for the long run, Hope Now could make a lasting dent. Those are big ifs. More than one million subprime borrowers are now behind in payments and an estimated three million could end up in foreclosure over the next several years.
Industry’s (and the administration’s) latest claim is that lower interest rates are fixing the problem. In a speech on Monday, Treasury Secretary Henry M. Paulson Jr. credited “lower rates, rather than loan modifications,” for helping borrowers cope with their junk loans.
But lower rates are just a reprieve. The loans are still debt traps, wired to adjust upward explosively if and when rates rise again. As such, they still need to be modified.
From the New York Times:
Double Bubble Trouble
AMID increasingly turbulent credit markets and ever-weaker reports on the economy, the Federal Reserve has been unusually swift and determined in its lowering of the overnight lending rate. The White House and Congress have moved quickly as well, approving rebates for families and tax breaks for businesses. And more monetary easing from the Fed could well be on the way.
The central question for the economy is this: Will this medicine work? The same question was asked repeatedly in Japan during its “lost decade” of the 1990s. Unfortunately, as was the case in Japan, the answer may be no.
If the American economy were entering a standard cyclical downturn, there would be good reason to believe that a timely countercyclical stimulus like that devised by Washington would be effective. But this is not a standard cyclical downturn. It is a post-bubble recession.
The United States is now going through its second post-bubble downturn in seven years. Yet this one stands in sharp contrast to the post-bubble shakeout in the stock market during 2000 and 2001. Back then, there was a collapse in business capital spending, a sector that peaked at only 13 percent of real gross domestic product.
The current recession has been set off by the simultaneous bursting of property and credit bubbles. The unwinding of these excesses is likely to exact a lasting toll on both homebuilders and American consumers. Those two economic sectors collectively peaked at 78 percent of gross domestic product, or fully six times the share of the sector that pushed the country into recession seven years ago.
For asset-dependent, bubble-prone economies, a cyclical recovery — even when assisted by aggressive monetary and fiscal accommodation — isn’t a given. Over the past six years, income-short consumers made up for the weak increases in their paychecks by extracting equity from the housing bubble through cut-rate borrowing that was subsidized by the credit bubble. That game is now over.
Ron Paul on the cause and solution for the housing bubble
Intersting rumor from Goldman.
“GS is making heavy real estate related investments. Someone in GS thought it would be prudent to
make investments when the market is low and bet on a surge later while holding on to inventory
(they should have enough staying power for the long haul !). The request was for 5B. After some review
they thought the idea has enough potential and sanctioned 105B !!! ”
If it is true, is it a Hail Mary play or just going long on 1st down.
From MarketWatch:
Mortgage applications rose 3.0% last week: MBA
The volume of applications filed for mortgages went up a seasonally adjusted 3.0% last week, coinciding with a big drop in interest rates charged on fixed-rate mortgages, according to the Mortgage Bankers Association’s latest survey.
Applications to refinance existing home loans rose 4.5% for the week ended Feb. 29 compared with the previous week, the Washington-based MBA said Wednesday. The Feb. 22 week was shortened for the Presidents Day holiday.
Home-purchase loan applications were up a seasonally adjusted 1.4% on a week-to-week basis.
…
Interest rates on fixed-rate mortgages dropped last week, with the 30-year fixed-rate averaging 5.98%, down from 6.27% the previous week, and the 15-year fixed-rate averaging 5.26% last week, down from 5.77% the previous week.
One-year ARMs fell only slightly, averaging 5.83% as opposed to 5.84% the previous week.
You know, some good NJ economic news would be nice for a change…
If it is true, is it a Hail Mary play or just going long on 1st down.
That reminds me of that french trader
Martingale at the heart of every black box.
From MarketWatch:
PSEG proposes 96 wind turbines off NJ coast
PSEG and Winergy Power Holdings on Tuesday proposed what could be the first major offshore wind-power project in the U.S., a 350-megawatt phalanx of 96 giant turbines, 16 miles off the shore of southern New Jersey.
While similar projects have been proposed off the coast of Massachusetts and Delaware, the New Jersey wind farm is in the running to be the first one developed.
“THINK OF THE SEAGULLS!”
“THIS WILL DESTROY THE NICE OCEAN BREEZE!”
“DON’T TURN THE SHORE INTO THE TURNPIKE!”
It’s only a matter of time…
Grim,
I can’t remember if it was Martha’s Vineyard or Cape Cod where they tried to put those up a few years ago and all the green global warming limosine liberals got all up in arms about it ruining their views and property values.
“Buyers who have cash “can use that to negotiate,” he says: “If you don’t sell to us, who are you going to sell to?”
Amen.
“State aid cuts will hit small towns hardest”
Lets raise taxes and tolls in NJ. Keep people and jobs away from NJ.
“A top Federal Reserve official said the central bank failed to fully appreciate risks that financial institutions were taking before the recent credit problems, and it is reviewing its regulations.”
[3],
It’s very confusing. Acccording to the Federal Reserve Act; establish a more effective supervision of banking in the United States. OK, then who is running the asylum?
Just a thought. Time is of the essence. In the near future the banks may be regulated by foreign nationals?
From MarketWatch:
U.S. Feb private employment down 23,000, ADP says
Companies in the U.S. private sector shed 23,000 jobs in February, according to the ADP employment report released Wednesday. The report comes two days before the Labor Department reports on nonfarm payroll growth for February. Adding in some 25,000 jobs typically created by government, the ADP report suggests nonfarm payrolls grew by about 2,000, compared to the 20,000 expected by Wall Street economists. The ADP reported job growth among medium-sized businesses declined for the first time since June 2003.
ADP report
-23K M/M
>>
got dart?
Salaries – We had some conversations about what people earn on this site and most info was based on outdate census data. Well todays WSJ has some details about the 2007 returns of the high income earners and it is pretty interesting.
Tax payers in the top 1% earned a AGI of at least $364,657 and taxpayers in the top 5% earned at least $145,283 and taxpayers in the top 10% earned at least $103,912.
The top 400 earners received an average annual income of $213.9 million.
Mediam after-tax income is $55,900
So in reality the pool of qualified purchasers of middle class NJ houses are in the top 10% of earners, trade up house bueyers are in the top 5% of earners and the purchasers of most over a million houses are in the top 1% of income.
#20 “He who pays the piper calls the tune.”
hehe 17
one of the big issues for all the politicians and CEO’s complaining about the project was that it would be built in one of the their favorite areas for sailing :(
I wish McCain picks VP better than what Bush did. I think the best candidate he can pick is Jack Kemp. I am biased as I have worked with Mr. Kemp in past and have great respect for him. I would be swayed to Republican side only if he picks right VP and does not pick anyone supporting Limbaugh type. Otherwise, its going to be Democratic this time.
#16: Unfortunately windmills cause migratory bird fatalities.
Consolidating towns in NJ is a great idea. Isthere any reason for a Belmar and South Belmar, er Lake Como? Spring Lake and Spring Lake Heights? Just ridiculous.
I once lived in Indianapolis. Except for Speedway, right around the track, the entire county was one government. They simply merged the city and county governments. It seemd to work out pretty well.
AMBAC FINANCIAL GRP INC 6.150% 02/15/2037 MAKE WHOLE
Price (Ask) 56.500
Yield to Worst (Ask) 11.263%
Roll the dice BABY – 50/50 on Ambac making it through the crises. If it makes it the above bond is paying guaranted 11.263% a year for 30 years!!!!
“Buyers who have cash “can use that to negotiate,” he says: “If you don’t sell to us, who are you going to sell to?”
Amen.
Preach on brother.
Who is on the other side of the ABX, CMBX trade? Someone is losing money, right?
Thanks in advance!
Who is on the other side of the ABX, CMBX trade? Someone is losing money, right?
Thanks in advance!
BI where are you? This is a margin call. Earth to BI. No answer NJ.
NYC plans to convert more than half of its 2 Billion in auction debt to fixed rate/VRDN, and more budget cuts on the way.
http://www.bondbuyer.com/article.html?id=20080304GVMRFTGN
Anyone (Clot?) need a good laugh?
http://online.wsj.com/article/SB120467165797211541.html?mod=hps_us_editors_picks
Gold may soon hit $1,000 an ounce. For all I know it may even go to $2,000 before the boom ends. But I still wouldn’t touch it right now with a 10-foot pole.
This mania is well overdue for a pullback. A veteran London-based investor I know who was a gold bull eight years ago when everyone else laughed, now warns the market is heavily overbought.
I think windmills area great Idea, 16 miles off the coast they will be hardly visible. The PSEG plan wants to build them off of Cape May, and Atlantic County.
I gather they are doing it in South Jersey to avoid the opposition that would form if it was Point Pleasant or Deal.
John: Good points, but I will tell you getting back to those historic Income to Home price ratio would be very long drawn out process. As Buffet said, “the market can remain irrational longer than you can remain solvent”.
My opinion is very simple. We have huge supply side restrictions in NNJ, CNJ area. I have lived through similar situations. I grew up in Bombay, where supply side restrictions are so huge that no-one even talks about affordability anymore. Even top 5% earner in that city can really afford small 2 bed room condo in decent suburbs.
Grim pointed out earlier, it is economically unviable for builders to build anything other than McMansions. Also the towns where there is land to construct even dense housing, are not allowing due to pressure on infrastructure and for keeping the vote bank alive. For last 2 years you see some distressed home sales but nothing compared to what has happened in rest of the country. How do you explain that? Are we so different compared to rest of country? Shouldn’t we have had similar corrections as in states like Virginia (which are very similar to NJ).
At present, I think we are back to 2004/2005 prices. At best we will go back to 2002 or 2003, which IMO is wishful thinking. If Democrat win WH, forget about any meaningful correction. The ARM rates are freezing for next 5 years.
Till date, I have not read any thoughtful analysis which leads to me believe, we are going to have affordability problem solved very quickly.
#1 grim; The muni auction market is dead. Kind of ironic for me. I was heavily involved in this product, from the begining, in another life.
“Anyone (Clot?) need a good laugh?”
bb [34],
I missed the punchline?
#36 SG: So your belif is that we go back to 2004/05 prices, and that is it, all will be well, people willlbe coming out of the woodwork to buy homes (even if they do not have a down payment)?
Hogh oil prices tightening credit, receission here or close to it rising inflation, job losses, including Wall St, record amounts of consumer debt, and aon and on, and yet you feel we just get back to 2004/05 prices?
That make no sense to me.
#34,
It’s a result of central banks around the world printing money to buy our dollars to keep their currency pegged to us. We are in essence exporting inflation. That’s why you see Gold and the rest of commodities at all time highs.
US and the mighty dollar will not fall easy hence expect this phenomenon to continue. Then the mania and th eirrational exuberance will gain speed and we will throw all the economic textbooks out the window and say why it’s different this time and that Gold only goes up.
That’s when you sell or stop buying.
my two cents, and all my money is on it.
BC – For this guy’s column to carry any weight, and for Gold to drop like a rock … wouldn’t the market have to turn? Would the housing situation have to turn?
Aren’t the two related?
Who knows, maybe the laugh’s on me!
“The ARM rates are freezing for next 5 years.”
SG[36],
If this occurs, the market will be decimated. If collateral is altered or terms modified watch rates go sky high. A 5 year freeze will be akin to terminal cancer, for this market.
Make
“my two cents, and all my money is on it.”
ALL your money?
That could be exciting!
From MarketWatch:
SUBPRIME TODAY
Credit Agricole swings to loss, writes down $5 billion
Mortgage applications rose 3.0% last week: MBA
Punk Ziegel trims Citigroup Q1 EPS outlook
WaMu board shields executives’ bonuses
Citic seeks revised agreement with Bear Stearns
Singapore working to clarify aims of sovereign-wealth fund
Auction-rate bond failures approach 70%, show no sign of easing
XL Capital downgrade warning signals more bond insurer woes
Bankers plan pay code to head off backlash
Inflation likely to curtail ECB, Bank of England
Details to above headlines at the link above
Curious about this house MLS 2449183
It’s on my parents block and i’m guessing it’s been listed for about a year now. Any history? Oh and there is NO WAY it’s 3500 Sq. Ft. Thanks.
http://tinyurl.com/2uuahu
According to the Bollinger Bands GLD is not overbought, it’s trading right in its range:
http://finance.yahoo.com/q/ta?s=GLD&t=1y&l=on&z=m&q=l&p=b&a=&c=
“Credit Agricole swings to loss, writes down $5 billion”
That CAN’T be true! bi said there would be no more writedowns!
As most, I’m in the market for a home and I’ve got to make a huge decision by the end of the month…
Do I sign the lease on my apartment for another year or should I make it 2? Rent only went up 25 bucks a month this year, so I really don’t see any value in signing a 2 year lease.
36 SG
I agree, the affordability problem can not be solved. It has to solve itself. Greenspan’s intervention wrecked the housing market (Go Ron Paul!) – a 5 year freeze on ARMs could have made a huge difference 12-18 months ago, but it is too late now.
3b: #36 SG: So your belif is that we go back to 2004/05 prices, and that is it, all will be well, people willlbe coming out of the woodwork to buy homes (even if they do not have a down payment)?
When you say “People”, you are combining a large section of groups. Even today, if someone lists their property at 2004 prices, in NNJ and CNJ area you have ehough buyer group to clinch them. There is large section of housing on sale right now which do not have to do fire sell. I do agree that at bubblecious prices of 2005 and 2006, you dont have many buyers, but at 2004 prices, that group increases drastically.
I do agree with lot of articles that get posted here, but I have to yet see anything specific that researches into NJ area specifically. Most articles are based on National level analysis. The only anaylysis you have is from Otteau group, which does very basic stuff like finding Median prices etc… Nothing thorough that shows Demand and Supply and pricing for NNJ and CNJ area.
SG
The one of the problem with builders and the fact that it makes more sense for them to build as big as possible on a given lot size, is that thye are allowed to externalize the true costs of their buildings. A home has more in costs then PITI and maint. There is a cost associated with increased traffic, increased need for services etc. These things are paid for by taxes, but this is external to the builder. If the external costs of new construction that are shifted to the town were tied into the cost of construction in the first place, then you would not see the phenomenon that grim described yesterday. In this scenario you would see much more sensible building patterns as the true costs of development would be seen upfront and wiser economic choices would be made by both builders and buyers.
Can we sue you?
3b Says:
March 5th, 2008 at 9:20 am
#1 grim; The muni auction market is dead. Kind of ironic for me. I was heavily involved in this product, from the begining, in another life.
doughboy
I’m planning my next lease to take me through to 2/10, so I’d be doing 2 years in your shoes. I happen to think it’ll take until spring 2011 at the earliest for the market to turn upward, but that’s just my guesswork.
SG
“Even today, if someone lists their property at 2004 prices, in NNJ and CNJ area you have ehough buyer group to clinch them.”
This is not the experience of my friends in NNJ who currently have homes on the market.
More on #21 from above
From MarketWatch:
Private sector sheds 23,000 jobs, ADP survey says
February reading raises doubts about state of U.S. labor market
…
This is the first decline since April 2003.
Economists said it is clear that labor market conditions are deteriorating.
…
In the bond market, Treasury prices edged up and yields declined in the wake of the report.
Employment in the service-producing sector rose by a net 47,000 jobs, but employment in the goods-producing sector lost 70,000 jobs, the ADP survey showed. And factory employment fell for the 18th straight month, dropping a further 40,000 jobs.
Most of the declines came from job losses at the biggest companies, but medium-sized businesses shed jobs for the first time since June 2003, according to the survey.
…
Economists have become somewhat skeptical of the forecasting ability of the ADP index in recent months.
Indeed, in two of the last three months, the ADP report estimate of job growth was much higher than the government’s estimate.
“While we continue to evaluate the value of the ADP series, in general we now rely on it less as a predictor of payrolls and more as an alternative measure of labor-market conditions,” said the economic team at Lehman Brothers in a note to clients.
In January, the ADP report showed a revised 119,000 private-sector jobs while the Labor Department’s report pegged the month’s increase at just 1,000.
————-
Yet the bond market cares about what the ADP report says.
That’s why I found this article from yesterday very interesting.
Stirring up the already-murky jobs picture
Estimate based on tax receipts say economy lost 77,000 jobs in February
I think it is one part lack of affordable housing and people keeping up with the jones. Pulte build a lot of middle class housing near me on the wrong side of town and they are two bed, 1.5 bath condos for well under 300K. Well guess what the subprime crowed bought 600K one families with 5% down and now can’t make their payments. Whose fault is that?
Plus those condos had a big RE abatement and required no maint as everything is new and landscaping are being taking care of. The subprime.
I had dinner last night with a close friend who’s been in the RE business in NYC for the past 18 years (owns his own business, does rentals, flips, simple renovations; the whole nine yards). He’s planning to get in an all cash position, even on Manhattan holdings, in the next three months.
His best story was that on one brownstone they own, the title is held by one individual at the company and the loan is held by a completely different individual at the company. If the second individual scarpers, the bank’s got nothing. Amazing.
I’ve been moderated…
I seriously doubt there’ll be any rate freezes by either party. The hedge funds and banks have given too much money to the campaigns.
http://www.marketwatch.com/tools/quotes/intchart.asp?symb=GC08J&sid=2337992&dist=TQP_chart_date&freq=7&time=3
bb[41],
I don’t want to get into a long explanation. I’m long term bullish, have been for the past 5 years, and short term nervous. Therefore I am hedged.
Futures are a different animal as compared to cash. A $1 move in cash equates to $100 in futures.
BC Bob Says:
March 5th, 2008 at 9:40 am
“The ARM rates are freezing for next 5 years.”
If this occurs, the market will be decimated. If collateral is altered or terms modified watch rates go sky high. A 5 year freeze will be akin to terminal cancer, for this market.
Why do you think that? Wouldn’t market cheer to the fact that Bank would not have this huge write downs? Yeah, the long term rates would go up by few percent points, but at 7% or 8%, 30 year fixed, you will have lot of buyers from Gulf and China. Politicans would not even think twice to gain short term gain, compared to long term stability.
Also Home prices do not change based on few percentage point changes in Interest Rates. If they did we should have seen effect as rates went from 4% in 2005 to 6% in 2007. The prices have gone down but not in proportion at which rates went up.
I know I am taking opposing stand than conventional thinking on this board. I do believe the prices are due for some correction, just that I don’t think even after correction, affordability will return to anywhere close to historic norm or that of late 90’s, especially in NNJ and CNJ areas. (You have to take out some exceptions like very bad areas and very high end areas).
Hedge Fund Blowups:
http://www.minyanville.com/articles/c-wb-gs/index/a/16149
OT: Delgado has an arthritic hip and needs a hip replacement. His career is over…..they are looking to trade Pelfrey for a bat and move Heilman into the rotation.
njpatient: This is not the experience of my friends in NNJ who currently have homes on the market.
They have either paid too much in 2004, have bad Agent, are not in desirable Location or have grudgingly reduced prices after 180 DOM (stale). There are exceptions everywhere.
You have to take out some exceptions like very bad areas and very high end areas
Hey we are in NJ. Here we only have High end area and Bad areas.
“OT: Delgado has an arthritic hip and needs a hip replacement.”
Is Mo Vaughn available?
What, nobody giving Clinton props for her big two wins last night?
We got a race on our hands again (thankfully).
Sorry guys, nobody gets a pony this morning.
“SG Says:
They have either paid too much in 2004, have bad Agent, are not in desirable Location or have grudgingly reduced prices after 180 DOM (stale). There are exceptions everywhere.”
No. I’m talking about 100% equity in a nice town. OK, maybe they have a bad agent, but isn’t that a given?
“Yeah, the long term rates would go up by few percent points, but at 7% or 8%, 30 year fixed, you will have lot of buyers from Gulf and China.”
SG [61],
Why do you assume that SWF and China will buy mbs at 7-8%?
Your scenario, 5 year freeze, is akin to dead man walking. Millions of mortgage holders that can’t afford their teaser rate now frozen for 5 years? The economy will go into a tailspin.
In addition to this, if contracts are modified, to the detriment of the lenders, investors will flee this market like the plague.
#61 SG: as rates went from 4% in 2005 to 6% in 2007. The prices have gone down but not in proportion at which rates have gone up.
Fixed rate mtges never reached 4% in 2005, prices have gone down yes, and they need to go down more, but you are neglecting to mention the orecord amount of inventory.
Where are all these buyers? rates are low, and yet people are not buying in droves, and the inventory contiues to rot on the market, while at the same time the inventory is continuing to rise. Does nto sound like a healthy amrket to me, not in the least.
So for serious sellers they will have to lower their prices, and dramaticlly to get this market moving again.
njpatient: If possible, give out listing number and address. We have some bright agents on the board who can quickly give advice on price that house should be listed at and what should be realistic closing price in todays market.
I will rest my case, if that price is much less than comp prices from 2004.
I had an opportunity to buy 2 properties, short sales, at 2003 prices. I decided that I did not want to overpay.
53:[i]njpatient Says:
March 5th, 2008 at 9:59 am
doughboy
I’m planning my next lease to take me through to 2/10, so I’d be doing 2 years in your shoes. I happen to think it’ll take until spring 2011 at the earliest for the market to turn upward, but that’s just my guesswork.[/i]
I’m pretty sure that I’m going to be here for another 2 years, but is a possible $300 savings per year worth being tied in?
Why do you assume that SWF and China will buy mbs at 7-8%?
Very simple. They have too much money (with Oil at $100+ and large export money coming in), and US is still less risky (even after taking some hit) compared to anything else. Where else would they invest, in Emerging market or Europe, which has even bigger housing bubble then US? In US we have too much reporting, we don’t have same reporting coming from Europe or Emerging Markets. I am not Risk or Investment expert, but I don’t think I am far off. The Risk associated with other investment avenues are not significantly better compared to US.
Another possible angle. It may be that SWF and China does not buy MBS, but they just invest directly in US banks, which then keep holding these MBS till the tide turn around. Anyway money from sources comes in, just with different title.
Speaking of religion, wheat Religion is Barrack? He has on his bio that he belongs to the United Church of Christ, but that is some bs religion that only started in 1957, anyone can go. He mentions that he switched to Christianity, what was he before?
Plus certain religions like catholicism you can’t just cancel, your need the church’s permision to no longer be catholic. Sure if you marry someone jewish or mainstream christian it is no problem but I doubt a real religion will go through the trouble of un-doing everything so you can join something like the UCC. Plus the USS does not even require you switch religions to attend, only that you believe in Jesus. I notice Obama carefully says he is a member of that church or he attends that church he nevers says he is that religion.
Does anyone know what religion Obama was growing up? I am kinda curious.
http://www.ucc.org/about-us/top-10-reasons-to-check-out.html
Credit Default Swap Problems:
http://www.minyanville.com/articles/LEH-BSC-TMA/index/a/16154
Religion causes too many problems with political leaders. Almost every war in history was started over some religious reason.
This is a riot! Read the link to see why, in the Philly RE market, it’s a new paradigm! “I’ve been in real estate for 24 years”, she says, but she looks 24 years old in her photo – give me the name of her doc!. (FWIW, she’s married to Michael Smerconish, who is very much like Rush Limbaugh but less pleasant).
How Matt Lauer Is Wrecking the Philly Real Estate Market
http://www.phillymag.com/articles/how_matt_lauer_is_wrecking_the_philly_real_estate_market/
Choice quotes:
“The softening has nothing directly to do with the sub-prime market, or the availability of quality real estate or mortgage money. The market forces in effect here are Matt Lauer, Diane Sawyer, Ann Curry and their ilk.”
“We have good inventory on the Main Line; interest rates are at some of the lowest points they’ve been in years; there’s still no shortage of mortgage money, and even jumbo mortgages are available at no penalty to qualified buyers. Sellers remain welcoming, but buyers are stuck in a holding pattern”
“The minute they say it, we’re on our way to a self-fulfilling prophecy. First, there are the buyers. They hear about the decline in the market and believe it must be the case everywhere. They certainly don’t want to appear foolish or unsophisticated by purchasing a home at anything close to an asking price, no matter how reasonable that asking price may be. So they either make ridiculously lowball offers, or stay home and wait for a complete bottoming-out — or until those same national experts tell them the water is warm enough to jump in again. Sellers, meanwhile, are frustrated about the absence of buyers. They try the usual array of staging, sprucing-up, painting and polishing. And when that fails, they bury St. Joseph in the yard. Finally, they significantly drop their asking price to get the attention of the few buyers who have to move due to life circumstances — relocations and new babies and the like.”
#78 NJpatient: they either make ridiculously lowball offers.
Oh yeah ridiculous low ball offers, says who her? Of course when the sellers were getting their prices back in 05/06, they were not ridiculous, they simply reflected the market.
Oh yeah right, so prices ont eh way up normal, prices on the way down and the offerrrs are ridiculous.
My response to that realtor is simply bite me.
“Does anyone know what religion Obama was growing up? I am kinda curious.”
I don’t vote on the basis of a candidate’s childhood religion. Nor on their adult religion, for that matter, unless they want to impose it on me. Therefore, for example, I don’t care that John McCain is in the process of changing his religion, but I do care that he thinks the Constitution establishes a Christian nation.
doughboy
“is a possible $300 savings per year worth being tied in?”
Probably not, unless there’s any possibility whatsoever that your landlord would boot you after one year in order to sell.
“Religion causes too many problems with political leaders. Almost every war in history was started over some religious reason.”
Not true, most wars were started for other reasons and then masqueraded as a religious reason.
“Not true, most wars were started for other reasons and then masqueraded as a religious reason.”
Either way, the folks at the top are using religion to anger the masses to the extent of killing each other.
I distrust anyone who brings up religion in the context of politics.
#75 John: the only permision you need from the Catholic church is to annul a marriage, nothing else. You do not have to cancel your Catholicism.
If you convert to another religion, there is no process involved to cancel your Catholicism.
If you are baptised Catholic, in the eyes of the church you will be always Catholic even if you convert or are lapsed, but that is all.
Does NJ have several microclimates that I’m not aware of?
I received several “new listings” today that showed houses surrounded by flowers and trees in full bloom.
I’m eager to schedule a showing, if for nothing else to experience dogwood in full bloom in March.
http://www.freedomsenemies.com/_Obama/ObamaReligion.htm
Wow – Obama has some interesting religious past. Interesting his current religion is for black people only. Isn’t that a little racist.
84 3b
Thanks. Saved me saying it.
John, kindly stop posting extremist and bigoted propaganda.
BC Bob: I had an opportunity to buy 2 properties, short sales, at 2003 prices. I decided that I did not want to overpay.
You are smart investor and expert, and I would be wrong to argue against your decision. Just from the fact that you are looking at short sells, I can tell you will find best deal in almost any market. In fact, most would probably do good following your buy signal.
The only trouble is most buyers would cave in much before that point arrives.
SG,
I don’t agree that the impact on prices/rates will so benign, but I do agree that the countries and wealth funds you mention have much longer investment horizons.
#74 SG They have lots of opportunities to invest throughout the world without buying our MBS’s.
And if they do buy these things, they are going to require much higher rates than 7 or 8 %.
“Where else would they invest, in Emerging market or Europe, which has even bigger housing bubble then US?”
SG [74],
Why are you assuming housing, here or abroad?
It seems to me that they have been and will be focusing on infrastructure, [industrial & engineering], energy, agriculture, resources, technology, transportation, etc. These may be just some of the areas that they deem more crucial as opposed to mbs. We have already exported/jammed s*it structured loans down their throat. How have these investments performed? What makes you think they have an appetite for more?
My opinion is very simple. We have huge supply side restrictions in NNJ, CNJ area. I have lived through similar situations. I grew up in Bombay, where supply side restrictions are so huge that no-one even talks about affordability…
I agree that NJ has supply side restrictions that ultimately support higher prices in NNJ/CNJ compared with other parts of the US. I, however, I would posit that the tighter supply of land has been priced into NNJ residential real estate for along time and certainly before the bubble.
Even in the mid/late-1990’s when looking back, real estate seems cheap, NNJ homes were still considerable more expensive than homes in other parts of the country; even more expensive than could be justified by higher incomes alone.
As part of the supply/demand equation, you also have to look at the supply of money to fund loans. Right now credit is tightening and lenders are returning to more rational lending standards. Without a supply of cheap and easy credit, these prices can’t be supported.
On the demand side, people are leaving the state, taking additional pressure off the supply of homes.
Right now when you look at the number of homes just sitting on the market, it doesn’t support a case for an exceeding tight supply of homes.
“Either way, the folks at the top are using religion to anger the masses to the extent of killing each other.
I distrust anyone who brings up religion in the context of politics.”
Can’t argue with that.
Not to get Gary all stirred up, but my good friend looking in the Montclair / GR area was outbid again. He loved the house, but knew he didn’t have a chance when there were 15 couples at the open house on Sunday and everyone was whispering how much they loved it. He bid above list again, and someone bid more, again. I know they price aggressively in this area, but there seems to be serious buyer interest every time the nice house on the block is up for sale.
That is twice in the last month. I am just reporting my friend’s experience, not looking to stir up a fight on the state of the market.
Take it for what it’s worth.
#89 SG The only trouble is most buyers would cave in much before that point arrives.
Sure some buyers will cave in as you say, and some can afford if you will to cave in, if they are impatient.
The question is how many ( and I believe the numbers are very high), may want to cave in, but cannot get the financing to be able to cave in.
How many first time buyers who will now have to have a down payment in most cases to buy, will have that down payment.
Assuming a POS cape at the 05 price of 500k, now requiring a minimum 5% down payment, thats 25k, plus another 7/8k for closing maybe more.
How long will take them to save that money, not everybody will bw able to get it form Mom and Dad.
“Not to get Gary all stirred up”
Huh? Stir him up! Stir him up!!!
78- NJpatient
Shes 45.
85- livelongrenter
My money would be on recycled photos from earlier listings. No one wants to look at pictures of stagnant grass and bare trees from the winter! :)
The Next Slum?
Strange days are upon the residents of many a suburban cul-de-sac. Once-tidy yards have become overgrown, as the houses they front have gone vacant. Signs of physical and social disorder are spreading.
At Windy Ridge, a recently built starter-home development seven miles northwest of Charlotte, North Carolina, 81 of the community’s 132 small, vinyl-sided houses were in foreclosure as of late last year. Vandals have kicked in doors and stripped the copper wire from vacant houses; drug users and homeless people have furtively moved in. In December, after a stray bullet blasted through her son’s bedroom and into her own, Laurie Talbot, who’d moved to Windy Ridge from New York in 2005, told The Charlotte Observer, “I thought I’d bought a home in Pleasantville. I never imagined in my wildest dreams that stuff like this would happen.”
Oh No, Where is Mitchell??? This could not be in NC?
#69 “if contracts are modified to the detriment of the lenders…” Nothing like the wholesale abrogation of contract law to create a business-friendly climate. Am I the only one who sees a parallel to nationalizing industries in tinpot dictatorships? Maybe I need more coffee…
Speaking of NC (land of milk and honey) my BIL called me from his home in Greensboro apprently the local gangs are escalating their turf wars. He stated he is glad he has his concealed weapons permit and a bushmaster. He lives a pleasent communtity of Single and 1.5 story homes that is almost Rockwellesque. I think I’ll stick with the crime I know here in the Northeast.
Sorry – it is the best I could do. I am actually just curious on Hillary, John and Barracks actual religions. All three belong to new age type versions of Christianity and was curious what was the orignal religous heritages. More interesting is I read that 46% of cigarettes are smoked by people with various mental disabilities. Barrack smokes. Another thing I read that people who belong to non-mainstream extremist religions usually are not mentally stable and easily swayed. Pesonally all three front-runners have backage. Mcain came back from WAR all banged up and his wife cared for him for years and when she got sick and needed help he dumped her. Plus McCain switches religions and wifes as offten as you and I buy a new pair of shoes. Hillary, I don’t even have time to go into that carpet baggers backage. I have no clue who to vote for. Mr. Bloomberg would have been my favorite if he ran.
njpatient Says:
March 5th, 2008 at 10:55 am
John, kindly stop posting extremist and bigoted propaganda.
Many local markets that are currently declining rapidly (Boston, Southern California) are essentially built out, just as is the case with the NYC area.
“Nothing like the wholesale abrogation of contract law to create a business-friendly climate.”
[100],
Exactly.
I think that no matter where you go you will find gangs and crime. Certainly NC isnt immune to this.
#80 Patient: Sorry but I totally disagree as I feel the muslim religion was forced on me on 9-11 and I won’t forget that or not pay attention if one of the candidates for president is trying to hide an affiliation with that religion. It does matter what you believe and where you come from which is why we have rules about where our presidents are born,etc.
Somewhat related to SG’s prediction that the house prices won’t go below 2004 levels.
Every time I talk to people about housing and explain to them that because of credit tightening and with the 20% downpayment requirement back in fashion it will be much harder for people to afford a house and therefore the house prices have to come down, the comeback always is well that doesn’t matter. The Asians have a lot of money saved up and can easily make the 20% downpayment so the credit tightening is not going to affect them, they will buy the properties.
What do you guys think about the Asian influence on the NJ housing market and their supposed ability to prevent a crash.
I think it’s just a myth because if it was true the prices wouldn’t have fallen to the levels they already have. But if it were even slightly true, it could delay (if not prevent) a further decrease in the house prices.
grim (7)-
“In a speech on Monday, Treasury Secretary Henry M. Paulson Jr. credited “lower rates, rather than loan modifications,” for helping borrowers cope with their junk loans.”
D’ya think this guy drinks himself to sleep at night? Or, is he such a sociopath that he actually believes what he says is true?
No matter where you live you will have to compromise on something
weather
schools (I know, God forbid!!)
food
personal property tax
gas prices
septic vs sewer
traffic
jobs
commute time
community
and so on
3b: How many first time buyers who will now have to have a down payment in most cases to buy, will have that down payment.
I would like to believe all the point, myself. The only tough call on that lack of any reliable analysis on side of Buyers. All we have in the form of statistics is Median prices and closing prices etc…
I do agree that there is no line of buyers as was the case in 2004 and 2005. But at the same time, there are buyers buying all the time. On that note, I think it would be great if we could see the traffic to Realtor.com. That would definitely shed some light.
Anyway, I dont want to make big argument, as it would not change anything. The point is even though logically it will be prudent to wait till market settles, but Human Psychology will override the logic.
# 35 “I gather they are doing it in South Jersey to avoid the opposition that would form if it was Point Pleasant or Deal.”
I think it has as much to do with 1) the congestion of shipping lanes north of Barnegat and 2) the depth of the sea (things are far shallower for a much greater distance from shore off South Jersey.
PGC (10)-
Classic Goldman contrarian play.
However, they’d better average in those purchases. Things have a long way to go before it all goes to black.
“Dry powder in reserve” should be any RE investor’s mantra these days.
Doyle:
I’ve seen that trend too, but although it can be frustrating, I still don’t pay it much attention. The number of actual closings in Montclair/GR remain low. Inventory still appears to be increasing. The prices of lower-end homes are dropping, but the nice homes are still elevated.
However, the number of relistings and houses that come off the market without sale make me wonder if, even though interest in buying the nice homes remains high, actual ability to make the purchases remains low. Alternately, I’ve seen a number of old homes (not just in Montclair/GR, but all over) that will have granite countertops and stainless steel appliances, but also have leaking roofs, considerable insect damage, ancient unsafe wiring, exposed asbestos, and other issues that are true deal-killers, but don’t show up when you’re looking at the paint job. So, you get attorney review, under contract, inspection, then the deal falls through when the buyer/lender won’t accept the state of the house.
Is this in line with other people’s experiences?
Jaw: What do you guys think about the Asian influence on the NJ housing market and their supposed ability to prevent a crash.
Actually very good point. I am from India and large percentage of today’s buyers are from that region. I will tell you few of my observations from demographics perspective.
1. Towns with good school district is top priority and will get premium from Asians.
2. Town with significant higher or significant lower Asian concentration is actually negative.
3. The housing in US is cheaper compared to their native countries.
4. Housing is generally considered social symbol, especially the bigger houses.
5. Most generally don’t care for larger lots as they hate outdoor work.
6. The biggest hurdle in buying a house in getting Green Card, which can take from 4 to 6 years or may be more. At present there is huge backlog due to slowdown at USCIS and quota mismatch. A lot would depend if this backlog increases or decreases. If backlog decreases, many would buy. But if the time increases significantly, most would packup and go back as well. So for those who want housing prices not fall too much, they should actually support legal Employment based Immigration reform, esp. in NJ.
IVV,
In this case, I disagree on the “ability to purchase” being low. My friend is very qualified, 20% plus, good credit, very strong six figure salary. And, he’s the one who keeps losing.
That’s an interesting point on the state of these homes however. They do look pretty online, but I’ve often wondered what kind of shape they are really in.
Has anyone looked at the 10 year treasury lately? Scary!
http://yournewreality.blogspot.com/2008/03/cnn-warns-americans-another-great.html
CNN Warns of a US deprssion looming…yikes
JLB
9/11 was not an instance of islam being forced on the US. 9/11 was the end result of decades of poorly thought out foreign policy combined with US empire building at the cost of local populations.
JLB,
was oklahoma city a case of Christianity being forced on the US??
#110
SG– I think we can assume a few things about current buyers.
#1 they resisted buying at peak prices. There was nothing holding them back; anybody could get financing a year ago. It seems clear to me that the people looking to buy today are concerned about overpaying.
#2 they are less able to buy than people 1 year ago. You need a real downpayment now and solid credit. Buying cannot be done on a whim now. For most people, it will take substantial planning. i.e., if you haven’t been preparing to buy for a while, you are not realistically in the market right now.
#118
that’s rather like blaming a rape victim for wearing a short skirt.
“Vandals have kicked in doors and stripped the copper wire from vacant houses; drug users and homeless people have furtively moved in.”
99 SG – admit it. You found that on Mitchell’s newest website: http://www.101usesforanabandonedhouse.com
“Nothing like the wholesale abrogation of contract law to create a business-friendly climate.”
Yep – line of the day.
that’s rather like blaming a rape victim for wearing a short skirt.
we not just wearing a short skirt looking exposed like a sitting duck;we are also bent over and begging for some capital infusion. Addicted to goods we resemble a nympho. Only diference is Prostututes rent their body and we are selling it peace by peace.
Funny crazy thought:
If one holds an Alt-A mortgage today, and they’re currently trading at 70 cents on the dollar, can a mortgagee (would can successfuly find the replacement debt) negotiate with the asset backed noye holder to repay his/her individual mortgage at some discount, say 20% of face? The bondholder makes a 15% gain over mark to market, and the homeowner gains the difference (net of taxes?), which cushions somewhat the market downtown. Provided he/she has enough equity cushion to refinance, of course.
Thoughts?
“The extra yield that investors demand to own so-called agency mortgage-backed securities over 10-year U.S. Treasuries rose to the highest since 1986, boosting the cost of loans for homebuyers considered the least likely to default.”
“The difference in yields on the Bloomberg index for Fannie Mae’s current-coupon, 30-year fixed-rate mortgage bonds and 10- year government notes widened about 1 basis point, to 204 basis points, or 70 basis points higher than Jan. 15. The spread helps determine the interest rate homeowners pay on new prime mortgages of $417,000 or less. A basis point is 0.01 percentage point.”
http://www.bloomberg.com/apps/news?pid=20601087&sid=apo02K8ZFgA8&refer=home
#118 Kettle: Get real! 9/11 was an attack on this nation and the people that did it were affiliated with Islam and attempting to force it down our throats along with the destruction of the buildings and the death of thousands of humans. Although I do not blame the religion I do think we can all agree that there are still many zealots out there affiliated with that religion that want to commit another 9/11. when a person running for president of this country is hiding an affiliation with that same religion it does matter. It does not mean he can’t have the affiliation, but it does speak to his character that he is hiding it.
#114 SG: Well all the town in Bergen Co, with the good school districts all have tons of inventory sitting there.
So perhaps Asians are savvy enough not to over pay too.
Plus the Asians will also have to qualify for mtg money, unless we assume that they all buy houses with cash in Nordstrom’s shopping bags.
Asians since they feel, and bleed, and put their pants on one leg at a time just right the rest of us, will also be subject to layoffs, and recession and all the rest.
John,
As I understand it, B.O. was brought up in an a-religious household where religion was examined as a cultural, not a spiritual, phenomenon.
#115 Doyle:In this case, I disagree on the “ability to purchase” being low. My friend is very qualified, 20% plus, good credit, very strong six figure salary. And, he’s the one who keeps losing.
And for every one like your friend, how many more are in the exact opposite position? Would certainly at least somewhat explain the massive inventory.
“we are also bent over and begging for some capital infusion”
Thanks, Make. Coffee out my nose. Now I need a new keyboard.
#119 Kettle: I don’t believe the horrible criminals that committed the atrocity of Oklahoma city planned it in churches or used phrases from the bible while killing thousands, I could probably think of many other examples but I am so in shock with your inability to see that those horrible scum bags that flew planes into buildings were cloaking themselves within the religion of Islam, are you an American?
121 skeptic,
how so? I am certainly not saying “we deserved it”, but look at our foreign policies for the last several decades. we have toppled elected foreign governments ( Iran, Guatemala), propped up dictators ( we basically put saddam in power) and used foreign countries for proxy wars. Foriegn policy like this will eventually piss off enough people so that someone decides to retaliate.
The rape analogy is in no way relevant here. You are implying that we were just sitting in north america minding our own business and then someone just upped and attacked us just because they felt so inclined. Just because you may not agree with another groups perception of having been wronged does not change their point of view or actions taken on those views, whether they are right or wrong.
#110 SG Sure there are buyers buying al the time, just not enough of them to absorb all the inventory currently available, and rising every day.
I am not cocnerned that 2 houss may have sold for whatever reason or reasons, and therefore that means prices will not go down.
I am more interested/concerned with the fat that the other 50 similiar houses out ther have not sold.
But his middle name is Hussein, so he’s gotta be a distant relative of the butcher Saddam.
Right?
RIGHT?
Stupid bigots. They’re everywhere.
Doyle,
Who is the listing broker on that Montclair home?
BC (126)-
But aren’t mortgage rates at historic lows? Aren’t housing choices plentiful and well-priced? Isn’t today a great time to buy?
[sarcasm off]
Asian Influence,
Ok yes I could have handled this better a couple years ago. I actually bounced this off some people I know from various places in Asia.
In fort lee/pal park/teaneck many want to live near their churches which are the center of their social lives.
Seriously living near parents, family, ect for support and social interaction seems to make sense. Like really no matter where you come from.
The concept of house being a huge status symbol is true from what SG says. Same with the cars.
But all that family money comes with strings, and since it was made from blood sweat and tears, you have three uncles and a dad walking through the second showing GRILLING the realtor and looking the place over.
Look it’s a huge advantage and one I am jealous of, but they will probably not be buying POS capes.
3B,
I don’t disagree, but I am talking about some nice homes in a specific town. If my friend is overqualified and has bid over list multiple times and been told “no thanks”, then there are obviously some other qualified buyers he is competing with.
Try telling him that the market is weak. It is all relative, that is all I’m saying.
BTW, a local broker (whose irrepsonsible cheerleading I’ve loudly rebutted) has filed ethics charges against me at the local RE board.
JLB
I will vote against anybody who makes a big deal out of religion. Anyone who invokes religion as part of their campaign is out of the running as far as I’m concerned; I’d rather have an atheist than a zealot.
I fear religious zealots, whether they are Muslims bombing buildings, or Christians bombing federal buildings, or Christians sending Anthrax-laced letters. Overzealous religiosity of ANY stripe is a non-starter for me. On that front, I won’t be voting for the candidate who thinks a religion is enshrined in the Constitution.
140 Clot
“BTW, a local broker (whose irrepsonsible cheerleading I’ve loudly rebutted) has filed ethics charges against me at the local RE board.”
You may wish to consider a lawsuit in an actual court for actual money.
Doyle:
Actually, your friend being well-off with good credit may very well be part of the problem. Getting there requires prudence and discipline. It requires being able to say, “Hey, I like this, but I’m not willing to pay too much for it.” All your friend has to do is decide to take an option ARM with no money down, and he’ll win those bids, easy.
Sure, he won’t be able to keep up with payments in a couple years and lose the house then. But who’s thinking about the future?
The run-up in California and the resulting foreclosure-based crash was based on these economics. Unless you were lucky, you would only be able to win the bidding war by bidding recklessly. Only as long as you were willing to be on the hook for an amount of money that you couldn’t realistically pay back would you be able to buy anything. I was in the same situation as your friend–good credit, 20% down, fully disclosed income to guarantee payback–and we could only afford lower-end properties. Sure, I could have bought a higher-end home in a better neighborhood with increasingly creative financing, but I like sleeping at night. In the end, we bought small, lived comfortably, and was able to sell at a profit last year in a cratering market.
So, I commend your friend on keeping his cool while losing out on homes he likes. It’s no fun, but it’ll be one less potential foreclosure to worry about.
Here’s to prudence!
And, about the state of repair of older homes, I always roll in the costs of required maintenance to the actual price of the home. Sure, the POS Cape may be $400K, but once you’ve addressed the wiring, drainage, mitigations, etc. that needs to be done, the price is actually $550K, and that additional cost is, ultimately, all cash (the property value won’t help there). Suddenly, homes look considerably more unaffordable…
66:
Vaughn available? Maybe as a hip donor for Delgado…
Doyle,
Can you get the MLS or address on those homes he lost out on?
Rich
JLB:
“I don’t believe the horrible criminals that committed the atrocity of Oklahoma city planned it in churches or used phrases from the bible”
You haven’t done enough reading on the subject, then.
#136
Rich, I will check when I get back to the office. It’s in GR.
You are not a bigot just because you question the character of someone petitioning the public to be the president! And Kettle you are someone who clearly did not lose a loved one in 9/11 and can sit in cool casual retrospection and try to speak for those murderers that took thousands of human lives (leaving little children saying when is daddy coming home?). You are disgusting and I seriously doubt you are an American–you are probably here in this country making money and that is fine but dont preach that we brought 9/11 on ourselves unless you want to commit to the Bin Laden camp.
127:
That’s a lot of stupid you’ve packed into a relatively small post.
Good work. Take the rest of the day off.
jamey – Mo Vaughn had essentially the same problem as Delgado.
Mets now looking for another left-handed 1B-playing 34-year-old slugger with a hip problem.
#107, 114
Jaw: What do you guys think about the Asian influence on the NJ housing market and their supposed ability to prevent a crash.
——————————————-
“Asian influence” is just that, an “influence” of many cross-currents. I am not also sure there is an unified “Asian” buyers. For example, SG’s list highlights what working Indian family may be looking for, but the stereotype “Asian big saving” might also be attributed to older Asians who made their living and saving outside the U.S., whose preference mirror more of a retiree’s preference.
Just to contrast SG’s list, my own observation of my Chinese relative (older) who are currently looking are–
1. School not so important since they are retiring grandparents.
2. They got their money and saving of 20% down from outside the US. Employment is secondary.
3. While they can care less about gossipping with fellow Chinese retirees, an Asian supermarket and Chinese-speaking doctors within walking distance.
4. The grannies likes to grow things in the garden.
5. Housing in U.S. is a form of consumption/creature comfort–convenience and ease of management is paramount.
As for those in their 30s and 40s working in this country–their fate and financials are tied up with the rest of U.S., and they worry about the same things as everyone else–layoff, mortgage, school district, retirement savings… Somehow it’s hard to imagine them as being a separate market segment.
#133
kettle1- there are plenty of grievances throughout history. most people do not take it upon themselves to murder thousands of people in an absurd attempt to “right” the wrongs of the past. the ones who do justly deserve our scorn and are not worthy of any excuses you may make on their behalf.
JLB
we will have to agree to disagree as we seem to have fairly different opinions on the matter.
Religion was involved in 9/11 but as someone said earlier today, religion is usually used as an excuse/justification and not the root cause. the majority of wars throughout history have been cloaked in religion and thats all it usually is, cloaking. for example, the spanish inquisition was ultimately about the church maintaining power and spheres of influence, not about what individual sky wizard you may pray to.
To answer your other question, I am about as white bread as they come.
148
Wow. JLB – get a grip.
#146 Patient: Do enlighten me then. How exactly were the Oklahoma criminals pushing Christianity while committing murder? Did they yell allah is great while blowing up lives? I admit I do not know, do tell.
Make
“my two cents, and all my money is on it.”
ALL your money?
That could be exciting!
Yes Sir. Exciting indeed. I’m having a great day. Are we at a $1,000 yet?
From MarketWatch:
Bond insurer Ambac halted for pending news
The New York Stock Exchange on Wednesday halted trading in shares of bond insurer Ambac Inc. pending news from the company. It is widely expected that the company will soon report that it has arranged plans to raise capital and maintain its important AAA credit rating. Shares last traded at $11.35
——–
That or they traded for Delgado
156 make
getting close! $989
oil with jet fuel again, too, at $103.55
67
Big props to Hill, let’s hope she can pull of the nom somehow.
Re Barack’s religion
I was under the impression his mother was an atheist, he was raised unchurched, and then joined that UCC church with Michelle in Chicago.
95 Doyle
I believe it. There is always the one nice house in town, the best value, that the few buyers our there want. We had multiple bids on our sell in Nov while the other listings are still sitting there.
#148 – Wow, that’s so much ad hominemit’s right off the scale.
102 John
You can always stay home from the voting booth. And don’t forget about Nader.
109 compromise
You mean there is no secret, perfect town (or state)? Darn! I think most people just try to optimize all of things you listed as best they can.
#132 JLB: First of all it would not be phrases from the Bible, but rather phrases form the Koran.
I believe these Islamic terrorists are not so much interested in converting us, but rather in ejecting us from the Middle East entirely.
Our bases in Saudi Arabia after the Gulf War, has enraged these 12th century so called holy warriors.
Also there is a belief that we have chosen one side over the othere regarding the Israeli/Palenstianin conflcit, we are not seen as an honest broker in that tragic situation.
And Bush’s naieve belief that there would be a peace treaty there before he left office, shows just how incredibly stupid and ill informed the man is.
We are also attempting to reshape the Middle East into what we perceive it should be, which is a folly. Just ask the Brits and French who tried to do the same after WWI. Nad of course we wnat the Iraqi oil, you know the oil that was going to pay for this war.
Who are we to force them to be Democratic? Their religion is more importnat to many of them than their form of government. These countries are going to have to find a system that works best for them.
I was opposed to the Iraq war, precisely because I knew how it would turn out. This BS that we would go in and give people demorcracy,and all would be well, was just that BS.
If a small relatively prosperous Lebanon cannot establish a stable so called democratic government, how could we possibly think we would do it in Iraq.
Plus Saudi Arabia is where the terrorists get much of their support and financing, and yet we invaded Iraq.
I wish them all the best over in that part of the world in finding some system that works for them, but our prescense there is not the answer, we are just babysitting.
If they choose to live under the auspices of their religion that is their perogiative. It is only an issue for me, if they want us to accomadate that when they immigrate to the west.
128 3b
Asians are also trying to sell their houses right now for outrageous prices. I saw a few.
I’m getting so frustrated with people claiming “now is the time to buy” since prices have come down. At a wedding this weekend I had a number of what I consider smart people telling me how great it is to be a buyer in this housing market. Prices are down slightly, but look where they were. I’m surprised at what short term memories people seem to have. This correction is going to take a long long time given the general attitudes and perceptions out there.
155 JLB
McVeigh was bound up in the Christian Identity movement. Beyond that, he was a member of the Aryan Republican Army, which consists of many adherents of Christian Identity, including members calling themselves ministers. He was before that a member of the KKK, which is an inherently Christian group.
Here’s some basic reading material.
http://eyeonhate.com/mcveigh/mcveigh6.html
166 prtraders
Gently point out that people have been saying that “now is the time to buy” since G*d was a boy.
#161 tosh: actually I think we should verbally attack people in the United States of America who dare to say we deserved 9/11 no matter how they try to couch it. I am a very proud American who believes in this country and although I realize we as citizens try hard to make the best decisions we sometimes fall short and as a country are not perfect world citizens. That said there is NO justification for thousands of our citizens to be destroyed on some random Tuesday morning and I don’t want to hear some stooge who thinks he/she is so much more analytical, rational than the rest of us tell me it meant anything other than cold blooded murder.
#169 – Translation “I don’t want to think, just tell me who to hate!”
Rich #157
Watch the market shoot up 200 points after Ambac announces some sort of capital infusion.
Is Buffet behind this?
Or the usual suspects. Our enemies “bailing” us out again.
http://www.nytimes.com/2008/03/05/opinion/05roach.html
“There are eerie similarities between the United States and Japan in the 1990s”
And we read it here (njrereport) first. Sorry if this is a re-post.
+400!
173 grim
I’m awful at these games. What’s +400?
$104.10!!!!
#167 okay, I get it but I don’t think it is the same thing as Bin Laden in the desert rallying muslims to take over the world and stamp out christianity. Bin Laden sent the terrorists on 9/11 in the name of that crusade. Mcveigh being a Christian is somehow not quite the same thing, although I agree their are zealots in every religion and lets be honest murder is murder as a human life is a human life. My only point is that the character of the president is important and if obama is trying to hide his religious affiliation it does matter especially since thousands of our citizens were killed in the name of that particular religion and his views on it might be important. wouldn’t it be scary if we elected a president who was sympathetic to the terrorists, like Kettle?
kettle1 Says:
So in other words you would not vote for Hillery Clinton as it was she and her husband in the white house who did nothing about the first WTC bombing and striped the milatary of proper funding and support. This allowed bin-laden to build up his following of fantics that brought us to where we are today.
March 5th, 2008 at 11:45 am
JLB
9/11 was not an instance of islam being forced on the US. 9/11 was the end result of decades of poorly thought out foreign policy combined with US empire building at the cost of local populations.
#99 West Charlotte is out Newark/Camden/Trenton/Atlantic City.
Im sure we can find easily many more areas in NJ with similar problems.
Please don’t start the NC vs NJ BS when you have no reference other that google searches to back up your claimed knowledge of the area.
The Fannie Mae current-coupon yield today is 5.73 percent. Investors are comparing that to yields of about 7 percent or more at which AAA rated, non-agency mortgage securities can be bought and tax-free yields of at least 5 percent to 6 on municipal bonds, according to Andrew Chow, who oversees about $6 billion in asset-backed bonds and derivatives at SCM Advisors LLC in San Francisco.
#170 Tosh: please don’t just hate, that is no way to live. I know you aren’t translating my words because I was actually urging you to think–think this–murder is bad, get it? I realize your vocabulary may be too elevated to process the word bad so let me give you a word you may understand–murder is hurtful! Is that enough pansy for you?
JLB,
you caught me, my family name is actually hussien and i have prospered heavily off of the fleecing of working class americans by luring them into overpriced homes and taking my cut. of course i send most of the money to family outside the country so that it doesnt help the US economy.
Skeptic 152
I am not trying to excuse anyone. What was done on 9/11 was a monstrous inexcusable act. But i also believe that you reap what you sow.
My point was that if you build up enough ill will in a foreign land, eventually they will decide to retaliate in one form or another regardless of whether such retaliation is just, monstrous, right, or wrong.
#99 What is stupid about that its like putting in million dollar homes outside Camden and not expect the local Camden crime scene to notice.
That was a poor place to put in homes.
#176 John: that’s right I wouldn’t vote for anyone associated with the USS Cole being attacked and not doing anything about it, either. According to NJ Patient I am not as well read as I should be but I did see the movie Black Hawk down and the visual of the United States soldier being carried through the streets is one that should keep Bill Clinton up at nights!
“if obama is trying to hide his religious affiliation”
If McCain is trying to hide his physical lust for goats it’s a problem, too, but since neither thing is true, it’s not a problem.
You’re into the Swift-Boat portion of the campaign already, I see.
#182 – I am not as well read as I should be but I did see the movie Black Hawk .
Now you’re just obviously trolling.
“I wouldn’t vote for anyone associated with the USS Cole being attacked and not doing anything about it, either.”
The Cole was attacked three weeks before Bush was elected, so who are you complaining about not doing anything?
When the WTC were bombed in 1993, Clinton promptly caught, tried and convicted the perpetrators. How’s Bush doing catching Osama Bin Forgotten?
#183 show me where McCain slept in the same house with goats and I will think about it, I would “hate” to not give it due consideration.
John, 176
You are correct, there are many reasons that i would never vote for hillary, her husbands actions are not directly one of them, but i do disagree with the majority of her positions
#185 patient: I didn’t say I voted for Bush either. Osama is not forgotten to me and shouldn’t be to any true American!
#127 9/11 is actually the second attack.
The first attempt was a U-Haul truck with a major explosion in the parking deck.
What you might not know is fellow IBM people I worked with at Allied Signal is where the main person worked from who planned the attack.
One of the IBM guys heard an FBI official say the original plan of the first bombing of the trade centers was actually to topple the first tower into the second tower but they weren’t able to get the truck into the position they had planned.
9/11 they succeeded.
Google the first attack on the trade center and look at the damage. It was possible.
Can’t we all just get along? I need to join a new religion to further my career, I wonder which one would be the most politically correct?
I am in London next week so I will check out the housing market there to see if it is cracking like it is here.
Also everyone is obsessed with downpayments. Now that the market is stagant or dropping the 1-5% down people are out of the game. People keep throwing 20% down like that is any type of good downpayment. 20% down is peanuts. Heck houses could fall another 5-20% down. Most people are uncomfortable with over a 400K mortgage and plenty of houses cost around 800K, most of that crowd is putting down 50% at least.
Regarding make money 117
Did anyone watch the video and notice that the talking heads feigned shock and anger that anyone in a position of power would suggest that banks might fail, even if it is true?!?!?!?!?
is someone using orwell as a guide book?
#182 JLB soldier being carried through the streets is one that should keep Bill Clinton up at nights!
It was awful, but who exactly shluld Clinton have attacked after that.
We attempted to something good in that country, and when it failed we got out, which was the smart thing to do, just like Reagan got out of Lebanon.
#190 John:most of that crowd is putting down 50% at least.
And how do you know that??
I’m getting so frustrated with people claiming “now is the time to buy” since prices have come down. At a wedding this weekend I had a number of what I consider smart people telling me how great it is to be a buyer in this housing market
I get the same thing all the time.
It’s funny. The same friends and family who suggested that I “buy now or get priced out forever” in 2005, now tell me how smart I was to wait; “you were right, prices did come down”. But now they can’t understand why I don’t declare victory and buy something. I try to explain that prices have gone up over 100%, backing 5% off peak prices is still grossly overpriced.
#165 Ann: Not surprising.
is someone using orwell as a guide book?
no sir. using peter schiff and Europac as a guidebook. But its the hairy ones that you need in the end.
Are we at a $1000 yet?
Renting, ptrader
to put the mania into perspective, a family member of mine is a CFO in commercial real estate in NYC and for the last 2 -3 years all i have heard from him is to buy now, leverage to the hilt and the increasing value of the home along with salary increases will cover the difference in a few years.
I havent heard any of that from him since about Oct….
50%? Really? They have $400K sitting around?
At the 2004 NJ median household income of $55,416, assuming that the household saves 25% of pretax income and can earn 7% a year on that, it’ll take 29 years to earn that. And that means saving aggressively and being lucky with investments.
The average age of a homebuyer is 39 years.
nj
grim is saying +400 for the dow after ambac anounces the actual news.
I think it’s +200.
notice grim is quiet.
Ambac will offer common shares.
196,
I can see what guide books you are using, But really, shock and dismay about some telling the truth about our financial outlook???
Then again out financial system is based on people having faith in the system. Remove this one variable and the entire system collapses
#140 clot: What are the ramifications of that?
Can you be censured or fined?
Ambacs also halted the underwriting of CDOs and MBS
#140 Why? Because you speak the truth?
http://xml.10kwizard.com/filing_raw.php?repo=tenk&ipage=5514223
From the Ambac prospectus:
As a result of the rating agency actions described above, as well as significant disruption in the capital markets and investor concern with respect to our financial position, we have been able to write only a limited amount of new financial guarantee business since November 2007, and we have written virtually no new business thus far in 2008.
#145
Rich in NNJ: MLS#: 2488995
Not sure on the first.
Come on we live in NJ. Everybody have a lot of money, makes 200K+ or comes from money with parents giving kids hundreds of thousands of dollars.
Or Asian. Asians are rich.
55K is not correct figure for household income – i think it is after tax income.
Also there are plenty of houses at the market right now for under 300K (gasp)…
Where is my 200 points rally???!!!
WSJ
Ambac Financial Group says it will offer common shares, according to a prospectus. Full article to follow shortly.
I only vote in elections where I actually care which canditate wins, this is not shaping up to be an election that I will waste my time with. Plus I don’t want to serve jury duty.
Houses in the 800K are normally purchased by Tax payers in the top 5% earned who have at least $145,283 in income. Quoting the 55K income adds in crack-heads and mickie-d workers into the mix. The lowest family income would be around 145K of the 800k home purchasers and at 39 years of age they most likely have profits from a starter home plus their downpayment savings. 400K down is not much at all. Lets say they bought a pos house for 250 with a 200K mortgage in 1998 when they were 29 that would still be worth today at least 550K and they would have paid down some of the mortgage, maybe 100K left so from their starter alone they have 450K as a downpayment. 400K is not much at all. Heck my sister whose family has a combined income of 140K with three kids to boot put down 650k on their last house that cost 950K.
Ann Says:
March 5th, 2008 at 12:26 pm
102 John
You can always stay home from the voting booth. And don’t forget about Nader.
From from the Ambac prospectus link above:
We do not anticipate that the completion of this offering and the Equity Units Offering will result in S&P or Moody’s assigning a “stable” outlook to our triple A ratings nor Fitch upgrading our double A financial strength rating to triple-A.
grim:
Our buddy is in hot water!
WSJ Editorial
Obama’s Border Incident
March 4, 2008; Page A16
Barack Obama says he’ll revive the art of American diplomacy, which sounds nice. We’re not sure how this promise squares, however, with the diplomatic incident his campaign has caused in Canada, of all unlikely places.
Last week, Canada’s CTV television network reported on a leaked memo from a Canadian diplomat casting doubt on Mr. Obama’s sincerity. The memo reported that Mr. Obama’s chief economic adviser, University of Chicago professor Austan Goolsbee, had told Canadian officials that Mr. Obama’s vow to unilaterally withdraw from the North American Free Trade Agreement was simply campaign rhetoric aimed at Ohio primary voters. This week, Mr. Goolsbee said that’s not what he meant at all when he attended a February 8 meeting at Chicago’s Canadian consulate. Perhaps something got lost in translation.
Mr. Goolsbee maintains that he did say that Mr. Obama recognizes the benefits of free trade. But, Mr. Goolsbee adds, he also emphasized that Mr. Obama’s objective is to strengthen Nafta’s labor and environmental provisions. The accommodating Canadian Embassy nonetheless tried to smooth things over yesterday with a statement saying that “there was no intention to convey, in any way, that Senator Obama and his campaign team were taking a different position in public from views expressed in private, including about NAFTA.” Which is too bad, because the apparent revelation that Mr. Obama doesn’t believe his own trade rhetoric is the best news we’ve heard about the Illinois Senator’s economic policy.
In Mr. Goolsbee’s defense, we too have recognized a language barrier separating the U.S. and Canada, particularly when we enjoy watching NHL games on television. In their understated manner, Canadian analysts describe blows to the head as “messages” and sticks to the face as “taking liberties.” So perhaps Mr. Goolsbee’s obligatory nod toward the benefits of trade was interpreted in Canada as a passionate defense of free markets.
However, if the Chicago professor was in fact sending a signal that Mr. Obama does not really intend to destroy America’s largest trade relationship, we can only say, “Kick save, and a beauty!” Leaving Nafta alone would be great news for Ohioans in particular, as the Cato Institute’s Daniel Griswold recently noted2. Canada and Mexico buy more than half of Ohio’s exports, and since Nafta’s 1993 enactment the U.S. economy has added a net 26 million new jobs. The average real hourly compensation (wages and benefits) of workers has climbed 23% and real median household net worth has increased by a third.
We suspect Mr. Goolsbee knows all of this, because the benefits of free trade are one of the few things that economists of the left and right agree on. The Commerce Department reports that while countries with which we enjoy free trade agreements generate only 7.5% of global GDP, they consume more than 42% of U.S. exports.
And along with importing our products, countries seeking open trade with America are also required to embrace the rule of law as a condition for such agreements. Colombia’s inspiring progress shows that foreign policy benefits may exceed even the economic gains. But a rejection of the pending Colombian free trade deal, a rewrite of Nafta, and a literal embrace of Mr. Obama’s campaign rhetoric would send a disastrous signal over our borders, north and south. Here’s hoping Canadian officials heard Mr. Goolsbee correctly the first time.
More from Ambac (link 204 above):
Mark-to-market losses on credit derivatives and total return swaps are estimated to be approximately $650 million for the month of January 2008 reflecting wider credit spreads across nearly all asset classes, especially in CDO of ABS containing greater than 25% RMBS exposure which widened an average of 72 basis points, contributing $461 million to the January 2008 mark-to-market loss. Market conditions which give rise to such losses have continued into February 2008.
Wow, that wasn’t the bailout plan anyone wanted to hear.
Fitch still has them on outlook neg.
Make [196],
Not yet. However the April contract traded and closed at a new high.
Fitch: Ambac unlikely to regain ‘AAA’ until risks contained
Fitch keeps Ambac’s ‘AA’ rating on Watch Negative
Ambac shares fall 15% following news of planned stock sale
Ambac will stop underwriting credit card securitizations
Ambac will also stop underwriting auto loan securitizations
Ambac to stop guaranteeing CDOs, mortgage-backed securities
Ambac has written ‘virtually’ no new business in 2008
Countrywide Is Sued Again by U.S. Overseer
http://www.nytimes.com/2008/03/05/business/05lend.html?_r=2&dlbk&oref=slogin&oref=slogin
John –
” I am actually just curious on Hillary, John and Barracks actual religions. All three belong to new age type versions of Christianity and was curious what was the orignal religous heritages. ”
Hillary was brough up Methodist.
Methodists are New Agey?
chicagofinance #63: Where are you reading this about Delgado? I’m not seeing anything coming up in my news searches.
Mets ought to take a look at their conditioning regimen. Their guys seem more injury-prone than average.
John #75: What do you care when Obama’s church was founded? I guess you’ve been getting these “Obama is a double-dog-secret Islamic terrorist mole sent by Osama Bin Laden to infiltrate our government” e-mail smears. May I suggest that you, and the people who have sent you such things, read this, which debunks this false claim.
I might also refer you to Article VI, Section 3 of the United States Constitution (you know, the document that George W. Bush thinks is “just a [expletive deleted] piece of paper), which states quite clearly: “…no religious test shall ever be required as a qualification to any office or public trust under the United States.”
Obama attended both Catholic and Muslim schools in Indonesia as a child. The Muslim school was not a “terrorist madrassa”, but reflected the majority population where he lived.
I don’t know about people who have been hiding under the bed for the last six years with a roll of duct tape in one hand and one of plastic sheeting in the other, but I WANT a president who has been to the Muslim world and has some understanding of what the issues are that we face with respect to that part of the world.
A candidate’s religion is only an issue to the extent that it violates the establishment clause in the Constitution. John McCain mistakenly believes that this nation was founded as a “Christian nation”, which it wasn’t. The founding documents refer to “Creator”, which could mean the Judeo-Christian YHWH, the Flying Spaghetti Monster, or any other deity one imagines. Or it could refer to the random “s**t happens” theory of the universe, which would then be the “Creator.”
I am considering informally adopting “Hussein” as my middle name until the November election. As sort of an “I Am Spartacus” gesture.
All Ambac has to offer is massive share dilution? I gather there are no Arabian Kights riding in to say they day. Buffet must be licking his chops.
could i get an address for the following? thank you
GSML# 2441621
re: candidates and religion – Did anyone think Romney even had a change with the Republicans? and what makes you think the Democrats are that much different?
For most voters religion matters, except perhaps for the far left who don’t practice religion.
Any candidate who pretends religion does not matter will lose out in the General election.
sorry if this idea has been tossed around already but…….
would it be too much to ask to take the weekly sales from buyinginbergen.com/sales.html and get a history for each sale?
– olp, lp, relistings, dom, etc…
i would do the legwork myself but i don’t have that kind of access…
i think it’d be very interesting to see… kind of like being able to see the cards when you’re watching poker on tv…
i would even put the weekly results into a spreadsheet/database myself for everyone’s viewing pleasure…
#221 that’s right and I am here to tell you (not because I want it that way but it is what it is) there will be a woman president, a black president, a latino president, a gay president before there will be a muslim president!
ABK ain’t saving no one today
Last [Tick] 9.0200[ – ]
Change -1.7000
% Change -15.86%
Not yet. However the April contract traded and closed at a new high.
bc,
I love it when you talk dirty. just keep saying things like the new high.
“For the first time in my adult life, I am really proud of my country”
That says it all for me.
The fact that Obama had attended mengaji classes is well known in Indonesia and has left many there wondering just when Obama is going to come out of the closet.
Actually if Obama wins and picks Hillery for his VP we will have a woman, a black, a gay and a muslim in the white house.
God Help us…
http://www.bloomberg.com/apps/news?pid=20601109&sid=ad_dkwtXz.TE&refer=home
For some reason I though this paper was funny. Am I weird?
BTW when Obama attended Catholic school in Indonesia he was excused from the religous aspect as his enrollement form state he was muslim.
I have no problem what so ever with his religion it is just he has so many, he and his wife both switched to their current religion. His mom was protestant, his father muslim and he attended Islamic and Catholic schools and is currently in a liberal left wing african american church.
181:
Isn’t there a North Carolina Real Estate Blog on which you can brag about living in the greatest place on earth?
No, really. I’ll join you there to start a Hartford Whalers thread.
228:
Please close the window behind you.
patient (66)-
“OT: Delgado has an arthritic hip and needs a hip replacement.”
Is Mo Vaughn available?”
Mo Vaughn available? As what? A first baseman, or a hip donor for Delgado?
A born-again devout Christian is doing wonders for our country!
A few more of such and we will be back in biblical times trying to multiply fish and bread to feed the hungry millions.
Barry Sotero’s (Obama) schoolmate, Rony Amiris, at Besuki Primary School remember’s young Barry as enjoying playing football and marbles and of being a very devout Muslim. Amir said, “Barry was previously quite religious in Islam. His birth father, Barack Hussein Obama was a Muslim economist from Kenya … all of the relatives of Barry’s father were very devout Muslims”
“We previously often asked him to the prayer room close to the house. If he was wearing a sarong he looked funny,” said Rony.
Amiris now the manager of the Bank Mandiri, Jakarta, recently said, “Barry was previously quite religious in Islam. His birth father, Barack Hussein Obama was a Muslim economist from Kenya. Before marrying Ann Dunham, Hussein Obama was married to a woman from Kenya who had seven children. All the relatives of Barry’s father were very devout Muslims”
Rony extrapolates further, that Obama at one point had to change his religion if he ever intended later to run for the office of President of the United States because America would never elect a Muslim to the be President of the United States.
Barack about being present to his family: “It is important that when I’m home to make sure that I’m present and I still forget stuff. As Michelle likes to say, ‘You are a good man, but you are still a man.’ I leave my socks around. I’ll hang my pants on the door. I leave newspapers laying around. But she lets me know when I’m not acting right. After 14 years, she’s trained me reasonably well.”
Source: Lynn Norment, Ebony, “The Hottest Couple in America”, February 2007, pages 52-54.
patient (142)-
What can I go at him for?
George Bush is not born again, he is Methodist.
The only born again he had is when he stopped being a drunk.
Jill said:
but I WANT a president who has been to the Muslim world and has some understanding of what the issues are that we face with respect to that part of the world.
AMEN
JLB,
SO i have no chance as a future president as a pastafarian????
This is the “value system” of the church that Obama does admit to being a member of:
1. Commitment to God
2. Commitment to the Black Community
3. Commitment to the Black Family
4. Dedication to the Pursuit of Education
5. Dedication to the Pursuit of Excellence
6. Adherence to the Black Work Ethic
7. Commitment to Self-Discipline and Self-Respect
8. Disavowal of the Pursuit of “Middleclassness”
9. Pledge to make the fruits of all developing and acquired skills available to the Black Community
10. Pledge to Allocate Regularly, a Portion of Personal Resources for Strengthening and Supporting Black Institutions
11. Pledge allegiance to all Black leadership who espouse and embrace the Black Value System
12. Personal commitment to embracement of the Black Value System
From MarketWatch:
Economy has slowed since start of year: Fed finds
Beige book confirms slower growth in ‘08
The latest Fed Beige Book survey reported Wednesday that two-thirds of the twelve Fed regional bank districts were experiencing a “weakening in the pace of business activity.”
The others weren’t much better, referring to “subdued, slow, or modest growth.”
…
According to the survey, retail activity was generally weak or softening. Services industries, a bedrock of growth, was also slowing. Even nonfinancial service firms were not immune to the slowdown, the report said.
Manufacturing, a chronic problem, was said to be sluggish in about half the districts. But several others indicate steady factory results. One economist speculated that factory owners want to keep secret the benefits of the recent declines in the dollar.
There were upward pressures on materials and energy, although wage gains were modest. Firms were having only “mixed success” passing their higher costs along to their customers.
Demand for loans was lower in many districts while tight credit standards were reported in almost all districts.
Jill Says:
March 5th, 2008 at 2:01 pm
chicagofinance #63: Where are you reading this about Delgado? I’m not seeing anything coming up in my news searches.
Jill: the source is a reporter with the Daily News, but he is not going public with it until he gets the OK from Minaya’s office.
#239 Afe and Jill: Let me help you out with the issues that we face in that part of the world–some of them seriously hate us and although this may hurt your tender feelings we need a president that can embrace that and actually protect our children, not someone who is going to justify why terrorists want to blow us up which is why “value” systems, religions and the truth actually does matter!!!!
#240 – You could always try worshiping might Cthulhu
vodka (180)-
When the Afghanis were fighting the Russians, wasn’t Bin Laden a “freedom fighter”? Didn’t Bush the 1st shake Saddam’s hand and call him a friend of America…when Saddam was waging a war of attrition against Iran?
A pawn who would be king will bite the hand of anyone who helps him. While we never deserved what we got on 9/11, it does behoove us to figure out who our friends are based upon a concept more stable than situational ethics.
John (190)-
“I am in London next week so I will check out the housing market there to see if it is cracking like it is here.”
Save your time, and go have a nice dinner instead. It is.
#246 Time magazine almost made Bin Laden man of the year.
http://www.snopes.com/rumors/manyear.htm
3b (202)-
Censure and fine appear to be the two avenues of discipline.
Then again, maybe I can advertise myself as having been found in violation of the NAR Code of Ethics…:)
Whatever happens, they can all go f- themselves.
241 JLB
do you have a link for that? I thought Barack was a member of the UCC? Or are you saying that is the tenets of his particular congregation?
Clott,
i have read opinions that most wars after WWII have been proxy wars between the superpowers on the basis that no one was willing to openly engage in total war after experiencing it in WWII. Therefore it was decided that proxy wars were more acceptable then 2 heavy weights going at it. Its an interesting idea that has some merits, but also some holes.
Tosh 245
Good point, Cthulhu would probably be a good fit for people like JLB, with the promised 0rgy of violence and what not
vodka (251)-
The only problem is, our side’s run out of proxies.
#250 the link is his very own church’s website…
http://www.tucc.org/black_value_system.html
“Is Mo Vaughn available?”
I’ll start asking around the all you can eat buffets and see if I can track him down for you.
Can Obama be a full member since he is half black. I always Laugh when Al Sharpton says he is a white black man.
I believe in the Church of the Fonz.
Eyyyyyyyyyyyyyyyy!
#251 kettle: if you had been paying attention you would know that I am against the violence which you are able to justify. You were the one commenting that we caused 9/11 with our inept policies, or would you like to change that position?
And his prophet Chachi.
A wha wha wha!
I believe in the Church of the Fonz.
Eyyyyyyyyyyyyyyyy!
Peter,
You blasphemous bastard!
Francis
Here’s some good news we can agree on. The only damned Yankee I ever liked:
TAMPA, Fla. (AP) -A brain biopsy on New York Yankees broadcaster Bobby Murcer showed no sign that a tumor had reoccurred.
An MRI exam last week showed an area of concern, which prompted the biopsy Monday at The University of Texas M.D. Anderson Cancer Center.
“We received great news this morning,” Murcer said in statement released by the Yankees on Wednesday. “The biopsy revealed scar tissue. It showed no signs of cancer. It’s what we had hoped for all along. I plan on resting at home over the next few weeks and focusing my energy on returning to the stadium for its final opening day. My family and I thank everyone for their prayers, e-mails, cards and thoughts.”
Murcer was scheduled to leave the hospital Wednesday and return to his Oklahoma home.
An All-Star outfielder who played 17 seasons in the major leagues, Murcer had surgery in December 2006 – four days after being diagnosed with a malignant brain tumor.
The 61-year-old Murcer played for the Yankees, San Francisco Giants and Chicago Cubs from 1965-83, batting .277 with 252 home runs and 1,043 RBIs. He has been a popular broadcaster on Yankees games for 23 seasons, winning several Emmy Awards.
when you read that black value system that Obama’s church espouses, doesn’t it seem like something you might have heard before? maybe there are tones used with the words chosen that seem a little like some of the white supremacy groups who have grabbed podiums in the past? wow, this is who we want to be president, someone who will vow to support the black race and africans before the whites? who are the true racists?
“The only damned Yankee I ever liked:”
Clot,
Not a fan of the straw that stirred the drink?
oh but that is the church he does claim to belong to. maybe he should denounce it and admit to being a muslim, maybe that would be easier to explain
Does anyone want to predict the size of the Mets collapse this year. Will they loose every single game September?
Last yera they were being compared to the Minneopolis bridge that collapsed.
This year they will be compared to the US Dollar.
Clot,
Steve Howe?
McGreevy came out of the closet, after he was elected, and there was no penalty. $500K for his painting at Trenton, even though he failed to serve the full term. So the pattern is there in politics, lie and there is no downside. Be interesting to see what skeletons are lurking in the Presidential Candidate’s closets.
176 John
“it was she and her husband in the white house who did nothing about the first WTC bombing ”
I missed this. I guess you weren’t aware that they caught, convicted and imprisoned the first WTC bombers.
Jeebus – leave for three hours and JLB is still going on about religion?
It’s official. You’re a zealot.
You don’t get out of Jury Duty in NJ by not voting. They also use the DMV records. So, to get out of Jury Duty in NJ, Don’t vote, Don’t register a car, and don’t have a drivers license. Interestingly, one person who is not a citizen, doesn’t drive, doesn’t vote, got called for jury duty. In her county, they also used property tax records?
SO i have no chance as a future president as a pastafarian????
Great, now I’m starvin’.
JLB, ever consider decaf?
#249 Clot:in violation of the NAR Code of Ethics…:)
Ironic to say the least.
Change the word black to German and we have 1940’s German propaganda
JLB Says:
March 5th, 2008 at 3:37 pm
when you read that black value system that Obama’s church espouses, doesn’t it seem like something you might have heard before? maybe there are tones used with the words chosen that seem a little like some of the white supremacy groups who have grabbed podiums in the past? wow, this is who we want to be president, someone who will vow to support the black race and africans before the whites? who are the true racists?
What this man says is true whether you like him or not. Go to
http://finance.yahoo.com/expert/article/richricher/69637
#268 Patient: I am a zealot. I am against a fraud winning the presidency of the United States of America and I will zealotly patrol my right as a citizen of this great country to question the qualifications and statements of candidates for the presidency. Oh and I am still pissed over 9/11 and the thousands of people that were murdered, so yes I guess I am a zealot. Maybe you should try getting passionate about something Patient, instead of trying so hard to not care!
260 Clot
That is excellent news. A really top shelf fellow, Murcer.
“I am against a fraud winning the presidency of the United States of America”
You referring to Bush in 2000?
#276 Patient: I realize it may pain you to stick with reality but Bush is not running in 2008
shab 270
may you partake of the holy sacrament (spaghetti!) and be touched by his noodly appendage
249 Clot
“Whatever happens, they can all go f- themselves.”
If you get fined, you should put out a tip jar on your blog.
If you get censured, you should put out a banner on your blog.
247
What Clot said.
246
What Clot said.
(this commenting thing is EASY).
274# JLB:
If as you say, that Obama is trying to hide his “muslim” identity/faith from the public, then he is not doing a particular good job at it.
Subterfuge 101 would have required him to change his middle name.
Ramen
JLB – I thought the Gulliani campaign was over. I think almost everyone is tired of the 9/11 battle cry to distort and cloud today’s issues.
“Only a Sith speaks in absolutes.”
“Clotpoll Says:
March 5th, 2008 at 2:51 pm
patient (142)-
What can I go at him for?”
I’m not a litigator, but you could investigate the possibility of defamation/libel. He may wish to withdraw his action and apologize before he actually gets sued.
Subterfuge 101 would have required him to change his middle name.
That’s exactly what they’d expect him to do.
That’s why not changing it is so devious.
#279 Patient –
Would you mind posting a link to Clot’s blog?
“Sean Says:
March 5th, 2008 at 2:03 pm
All Ambac has to offer is massive share dilution?”
Hey – at least I’m back on the blog!
Victorian – click on his name.
286 schab
Please tell me you’ve listened to The Goon Show.
#284 Are you serious? Is 9/11 over in your mind? I absolutely think 9/11 is a today issue and a tomorrow issue too, you don’t? Was not our country attacked less than ten years ago and were not thousands killed? What will it take for you to care? does it have to be your wife or husband or child killed for you to care? Don’t worry if you keep on this apathetic trail you might come upon that day where your loved one is taken. It does matter who we elect as our president!
218 Jill
“I might also refer you to Article VI, Section 3 of the United States Constitution ”
Didn’t you know that the Constitution is “quaint”?
Ramen
as in noodles for dinner 2008-2012?
Please tell me you’ve listened to The Goon Show.
Nope, a little before me. Monty Python was my bag.
Hearing that Peter Cook, the Pythons and John Lennon were big fans has me intrigued.
BTW, ‘that CAN’T be true’ is a great running bit.
“grim is saying +400 for the dow after ambac anounces the actual news.”
Oh.
Oooooops.
Hey Jaw, what do you do for a living, if I may ask???
“Hearing that Peter Cook, the Pythons and John Lennon were big fans has me intrigued.
BTW, ‘that CAN’T be true’ is a great running bit.”
Thanks. You should check out the Goon Show. Hysterical. Peter Sellers at his absolute finest, and about the funniest thing you could ever listen to on a car trip.
On other blogs I tend to be a Goon by handle.
Here’s a link:
http://www.thegoonshow.net/
AMBAC MARKET MANIPULATION:
http://bigpicture.typepad.com/comments/2008/03/ambac-part-iii.html
You think Gasparino is going to get subpoena’d about these supposed I-bankers he was talking to?
JLB, thx for link re Obama’s church. Yeah, that’s going to be a big problem for BO. Some of it is fine (what’s wrong with valuing education etc), but it’s going to be read every which way.
I think it is very Sad that we haven’t been able to bring Bin Ladin to Justice. And the blame belongs with the entire Government. Congress would rather interogate baseball players then demand Bin Ladin be neutralized. In fact Congress goes out of it’s way to reduce penalties on anyone who could provide information on Bin Ladin. They are more concerned with protecting the Terrorist rights, then capturing the Terrorists.
#299 If we can go into Pakistan then we could but were too busy playing by the rules.
297 hehehe
Gasparino is a mark who constantly gets played. He never knew what was going on – just wanted a scoop.
#284. You are kidding right?! Why don’t you tell that to the relatives of all those who were KILLED that day. And the relatives of all the military men/women that have died since.
So, based on your comments, we might as well let it go and forget what was done to us in OUR OWN COUNTRY?
Should we also stop the security checks at the airports? It is just a waste of time right?
Breathe, Dan.
Also, I believe the Giuliani campaign is, in fact, over, so I doubt Artemis is kidding about that.
302
Nothing brings home a point more than RANDOM capitalization…
The CNN exit Polls have been interesting. It would appear that the only voters who are very diverse are the Non Hispanic White Voters. Clinton draws the majority of Hispanic Voters, Obama the majority of Black Voters. They both split White Voters. Interesting.
300. Mitchell
Congressional Rules which jeopardize the safety and security of the US, are unconstitutional and invalid.
Dan et. al. — just wondering: How many of “them” do we have to kill before YOU think we’re “even”? What’s the ratio? 4-1? 10-1? 10,000-1?
And another question: How do you reconcile your views of yourselves as tough guys when you’ve been quaking in fear 24/7 for the last six years? Isn’t that kind of inconsistent?
As for “what was done to us in our own country”, I think you also have to look at wireless wiretaps on Americans for no reason, putting Quakers and pacifist nuns on no-fly lists, and the other ways GWB has decided that the way to address “They hate our freedom” is to take it away from us.
307
What Jill said.
Clot, My 1:26 post is still in moderation so I’ll try again. Why the ethics complaint? Is someone upset because you speak the truth?
307/308. If you fire a gun, aim at the right target. It’s most of Government, i.e. Congress. GWB is irrelevant.
Well, based on the Obama’s church black value system I guess Michelle Obama’s thesis statements could be viewed in a different light (especially if you are white), I can’t help but think Barack may want to retract his statements and admit to being muslim afterall as it might be easier than defending his “claimed” church…
Michelle Obama’s Senior Thesis: “I Will Always Be Black First And A Student Second”
“. . .it is impossible to help everyone and everything equally at the same time. Therefore an individual must create a motivational hierarchy…[to] determine which social groups are most important to benefit.”
310
Congress has spent 8 years doing every last thing Bush ever asked, so how you can say he’s irrelevant is utterly beyond me.
W has created a unitary executive with unparalleled power in the history of the country. He IS the government, and Congress has provided no oversight (for that, may they be d*mned, but not a single thing has happened in the last two terms that wasn’t straight from the Bush admin playbook).
311 JLB
I’d say something unpleasant about John McCain’s wife, but I don’t know which one to say it about.
307,308: First of all it isn’t about killing them, but not letting them kill us. Second, the people quaking in fear are the people making decisions based on fear and choosing to elect leaders because the rest of the world will like them and maybe they will like us then, oh please. Lastly, what happened in our country was thousands of people were killed which is not the same thing as civil liberties that may or may not be infringed on.
Sean Says:
“re: candidates and religion – Did anyone think Romney even had a change with the Republicans?”
No. And that’s a real shame. Obsessing about Mormonism allowed them to ignore the most viable candidate in terms of understanding and being able to handle the current economic mess.
A country gets the President it deserves….
There are a boat load of political blogs on national politics yet everyone thinks they’re going to prove/win their argument here and persuade/edify other’s to their viewpoint.
You’re wasting your time and worse, making scroll.
Grim,
Please stop working at the day job and start deleting all this political bullsh1t.
Rich
#313 patient: Bring it, find the worst thing you can about McCain’s wife and say it–pick either wife and I bet it still won’t approach Michelle Obamas thesis alienating all races from the black race. Why is it okay for a black person to say “stick with the blacks” while if a white person even suggested “stick with the whites” it would be called racism?
JLBLT,
Are you sure you’re at the right site?
Frenzied, reactionary, making little sense, completely off topic…I’d say it’s a tossup between Free Republic and lgf.com.
307, 308
It is not a point of how many of ‘them’ you have to kill or to make it even. It is not a case of an eye for an eye, you missed the point.
I agree, 9/11 should not be a political battle cry, but I believe we should not be thrown to the side and forget it.
I do believe 9/11 is a consecuence of US foreign policies, and that the current war on terror, wiretaps, waterb, etc., is no the right way to go.
But the fact is that on 9/11 thousands of lives were lost and something has to be done; what we have done is to slowly make a bigger mess of it.
schabadoo Says:
March 5th, 2008 at 4:12 pm
“Subterfuge 101 would have required him to change his middle name.
That’s exactly what they’d expect him to do.
That’s why not changing it is so devious.”
schab – You’re not a Blackadder fan are you?
That would just be in line with one of Baldricks “cunning plans”.
317 JLB
“PHOENIX — GOP presidential candidate John McCain’s wife Cindy took to the airwaves last week, recounting for Jane Pauley (on “Dateline”) and Diane Sawyer (on “Good Morning America”) the tale of her onetime addiction to Percocet and Vicodin, and the fact that she stole the drugs from her own nonprofit medical relief organization.”
http://www.salon.com/news/feature/1999/10/18/drugs/
This version’s uglier:
http://www.phoenixnewtimes.com/1994-09-08/news/opiate-for-the-mrs/
patient (285)-
Long story short, I called him to task on my blog for writing a piece that parroted NAR predictions of a strengthening housing market in ’08. He also made the claim (on 12/30/07) that in regards to the current market, “the worst has passed”.
The body of my post wasn’t what drew his ire. He brought a charge of making false statements against another Realtor, because I tagged my posts: “______ is the child of Satan” and “_________ is a hack and a shill”.
This should be fun.
Jill – good on you, stick it to the chicken hawks.
patient – LOVE the Goons.
317 JLB
http://www.salon.com/news/feature/1999/10/18/drugs/
http://www.phoenixnewtimes.com/1994-09-08/news/opiate-for-the-mrs/
Dan [302],
As someone who traded bonds and an occasional drink over a period of three years with two guys at Cantor who died that awful day, I get a little peeved at the insinuation that I’m lacking in patriotism because I won’t salute as reflex. Then I get even more peeved at people who bring up the now 4000 members of the military killed since in a war that had nothing to do with 911. A real patriotic American would like a chance to vote for someone who, upon taking office, claps the current officeholder in irons and has him deposited in the brig while awaiting trial for war crimes and treason.
Regarding security checks at airports, yeah, I’m in favor of abolition. They accomplish f-all except aggravating travelers. An armed society is a polite society. Put four plain clothes marshals on every plane. It would cost less than the sham security we have today and it would be more effective.
Michelle Obama’s own words in her thesis..
My experiences at Princeton have made me far
more aware of my “Blackness” than ever before. I have found
that at Princeton no matter how liberal and open-minded some
of my White professors and classmates try to be toward me, I
sometimes feel like a visitor on campus; as if I really
don’t belong. Regardless of the circumstances underwhich I
interact with Whites at Princeton, it often seems as if, to
them, I will always be Black first and a student second.
Punch (323)-
Cheney, Rumsfeld and Wolfowitz should be Dubya’s cellmates in The Hague.
War criminals, all.
maybe you want to read her thesis yourself..
http://obamaprincetonthesis.wordpress.com/
322
Oh.
Yes, that should be fun.
317 JLB
I’m in moderation, so look at 321 when it comes out for links to stories about Cindy stealing drugs from her charitable corp.
326 JLB
I think it’s odd that you are so freaked out by that.
Rich [316],
Thank you.
patient (327)-
You say that as though I’m fried.
Dont forget the Oprahism factor.
Putting her weight behind Obama the Oprah clones are homebodies and have free time to vote. She will teach them how.
#328,#329–if she stole drugs she should be arrested and prosecuted or be rehabilitated and maybe they should lock the medicine cabinet in the white house but that still isn’t the same as a possible first lady that sees one race in the country above all others. Don’t you think pervasive racism is a slippery slope and especially if it is residing in the white house? I would love to see a black president but I’m not sure I would want that to be people who clearly would not see all the citizens as equals but would instead promote racism.
patient [301],
Played like a fiddle.
er, JLB…
“Regardless of the circumstances under which I interact with Whites at Princeton, it often seems as if, to them, I will always be Black first and a student second.”
Read the above again. It’s not Obama calling herself “Black first”.
I liked Obama…..but agree that his wife is a liability. I laughed today when the NY Times referred to his desire for a ‘Coronation’. As for McCain…he would actually be a little more friendly to some of the special interests that make this great state tick. But his association with Bush is pathetic.
312. Congress makes the Laws. To the extent that they do that based upon input from Lobbyist or the Mad Hatter, they have failed in their duty to the people. The real issue is Congress must do their job, for the people within the framework of the Constitution. When Justice Brennan ruled 5/4 that states were responsible for paying for the education of children of illegal aliens, he told Congress it was up to them to modify the law to disallow that ruling. They failed to do that, regardless of presidents or party control, leading up to the very big illegal alien problem today. They have continually failed to do their job in many areas. They didn’t stop Clinton in Bosnia or Bush in Iraq.
333 clot
nah – you’re not, but suing him probably won’t work.
337 clot
JLB doesn’t deal in subtleties.
patient (338)-
I don’t want to sue him. I want to go back to ridiculing and humiliating him.
Only in the most ethical way possible, though. :)
#335 UH DUH CLot: yes I understand it is Michelle that believes all whites think that about her, what a great starting point for dealing with someone of another race. Read the whole thesis, you might learn something about one half of the couple trying to get in the white house and then realize that she got him to join her church that espouses “the black value system”, are you starting to see a pattern?
sx (336)-
“But his association with Bush is pathetic.”
It’s like taping a turd to your lapel.
JLB,
You are beyond the pale. I realized after I typed my response that I don’t have the energy to engage you. Sorry.
Clot
“Only in the most ethical way possible, though. :)”
Always speak in questions. Example: “Is ____ the child of Satan?” (Check out the lower third chyrons at Fox News – they’re true experts at this technique).
#342….holy crap. Funniest post of the day.
Down South, there’s a concept- still very much alive- of the “uppity black”. It’s pretty much what you’d think: an articulate, educated black person develops a chip on the shoulder and proceeds to behave in a very aggressive and outspoken manner, much like an entitled and aggrieved white person might.
This behavior is often greeted with disdain by whites- and, ironically, many blacks. Whites feel threatened by it, and blacks see it as either showing up other blacks or as an attempt to act “white”.
An educated, articulate black person is, therefore, a constant target. There is no proper way to speak or behave. No matter what, the articulate and educated black is culturally adrift, fitting in neither the traditional white nor black worlds.
I don’t consider myself a bleeding heart by any means, but that is a helluva a way for somebody to go through life.
324. If you substitute White in Obama’s thesis, it would probably reflect what the Clinton’s are feeling right now, as years of cultivated support in the Black community evaporate, over their whiteness, or apparent lack of blackness.
The interesting thing about Obama’s thesis is that while it honestly reflected her feelings, her feeling may not have factual, as related to how her professors really saw her.
some more of Michelle’s wisdom (when reading her wonderfully intellectual thesis, one might wonder if maybe class has as much or more to do with this identification issue as race does, but surprisingly that wasn’t where her thesis went)…
I began this study questionning my own attitudes as a fu-
ture alumnus. I wondered whether or not my education at
Princeton would affect my identification with the Black com-
munity. I hoped that these findings would help me conclude
that despite the high degree of identification with Whites
as a result of the educational and occupational path that
Black Princeton alumni follow, the alumni would still main-
tain a certain level of identification with the Black commu-
nity. However, these findings do not support this possibil-
ity.
#343 Clot: that’s okay honey, you keep your energy because you need it for your troubles with your blog…that’s what happens when instead of using facts to debate you slide into filthy mud slinging…oh poor boy, sure hope you get some help
I think the irony was how ‘Bill’ kind of helped his wife blow her lead — instead of giving Americans an incentive for leadership, he reminded the country just how dis-functional that couple really is. And poor Chelsea….yech. She got the worst of that gene pool
Putting her weight behind Obama the Oprah clones are homebodies and have free time to vote. She will teach them how.
Thank you for that post.
Good to see your true colors at last.
wait a minute, “white oppressor” sounding a little like Farrakhan? More of Michelle speaking of the campus back when black power was in vogue, in her (very understanding) own words..
It is possible that Black individuals either chose to or
felt pressured to come together with other Blacks on campus
because of the belief that Blacks must join in solidarity to
combat a White oppressor. As the few Blacks in a White environment it is understandable that respondents might have
felt a need to look out for one another.
From MarketWatch:
Merrill stops originating First Franklin mortgages
Broker mulls sale of mortgage-servicing unit as subprime market deteriorates
Merrill Lynch & Co. said late Wednesday that it will stop originating home loans from First Franklin, a subprime mortgage business the investment bank bought for $1.3 billion less than two years ago.
Merrill said it is also exploring the sale of Home Loan Services, a mortgage-servicing unit of First Franklin.
About 650 people will be affected by Merrill’s decision. Total charges from the move, primarily severance and real estate costs, will be $60 million for 2008. Roughly half of that will be recorded in the first quarter, Merrill said.
Merrill is the latest investment bank to scale back its mortgage business amid rising defaults and falling prices in the U.S. real estate market.
More at the link above , Rich
ooops, bold off
354 JLB
Clot’s right. No point in talking to you. You go on with your bad self, however; I’m sure McCain will be glad for your public support.
[/presidential politics off]
Thanks grim
Help me help myself.
Clot: going forward on your blog, here’s the go-to encyclopedia of litigation-proof headline-writing – the NAR can’t possibly object!!!
http://www.thedailyshow.com/video/index.jhtml?videoId=117466&title=the-question-mark
How about that clown yesterday who says homes are the most affordable in 4 years. Well I got 2 issues with that.
1) 4 is a very unlucky number in Chinese culture (sounds like death in mandarin)
2) Homes became way overpriced 4 years ago.
3) If homes are so cheap that clown should go pick up a few and become an investor
4) 8 is very lucky in Chinese culture. I’m waiting. Got another year or so to wait till we get back to 2001 prices. Myabe I’ll wait till I can shop likes its 1999. (sorry Prince)
You’re not a Blackadder fan are you?
No, never seen it.
Rowan Atkinson?
Ah, schab – you now have weeks of fun ahead of you – Blackadder AND the Goons!
I think turd stick pins are the new rage for eBay! Show your support! Sport the turd!
Patient @295: lawyer
365 Jaw
I suspected as much given the facility with the public filings (the existence of which most of the public seems unaware).
schab – Yes, Rowan Atkinson. I would especially recommend the first series, and the one set in Elizabethan times. And also one set in the Middle Ages. And the war time one wasn’t bad either.
Essex (362)-
Turd? That’s Mr. Hankey to you, pal:
http://tinyurl.com/yothjt
You know, George Carlin has some great comments about religion.
Rich [353],
Thanks for the RE related post.
#228
Kettle:
85 Mohican Rd.
Blairstown
Oops, I mean to refer to #220, in post 369.
re 352
You apparently cannot distinguish between a thesis and a manifesto.
Bob (369),
Wasn’t sure if the topic would be well received but I thought I’d go out on a limb and just mix it up a bit.
Early April GTG anyone?
# prtraders2000 Says:
March 5th, 2008 at 12:30 pm
I’m getting so frustrated with people claiming “now is the time to buy” since prices have come down. At a wedding this weekend I had a number of what I consider smart people telling me how great it is to be a buyer in this housing market. Prices are down slightly, but look where they were. I’m surprised at what short term memories people seem to have. This correction is going to take a long long time given the general attitudes and perceptions out there.
Many uninformed types have shouted this to my wife and I in the last six months. Initially, we took it personally and argued with them. We would tell them that we’ve done the homework, seen the charts, sifted through the realtor BS, and charted towns. It would turn into a back and forth.
Now, we just smile, say, ‘well, we’re going to hold off’ and toe that company line until they get the point and the subject changes. It does feel good to be informed.
I also think that no one will buy unless they really have a 50% down payment ie liquid assests. Its ok to take a 80% mortagage but stupid if you have nothing less. If you take a Dave Ramsey approach and only purchase a home 25% of your take home live on 50% and bank the other 25%. You should be able to pay the home off in 15 years or have 50% equity in 7.5 years. When prices were going up it did not matter but now that they are not going anywhere and with inflation it woud be risky to puurcahse without this much. Also, parents all over the place are buying or adding to the down payment instant 6% interest. When you have to diversify your portfolio what are you going to invest in. Most parents already have their house paid off and are still earning or need somewhere to dump there SS checks 401K withdrawals. If the average age to buy a house is late 30’s it makes sense that people would have more than 50% down.
#373 Bloodbath,
I’ve been using the phrase “waiting for my stock options to vest.” Well I don’t have any stock options so it’s going to be a long wait.
Got tired of telling people this was a bubble that was going to end badly. I think this summer the sellers are going to discover the market is like musical chairs, only someone removed 90% of the chairs at one shot.
BC Bob and others looking for a deal in Vegas-
Prices just came down substantially on rooms at the Venetian.
flowerboy,
I don’t know of a single person who bought in NJ with 50% down. The majority of your post doesn’t even make sense to me.
If you knew Dave ramsey math you would understand. He teaches peope to buy a house only 25% of your take home and to take a 15 year mortgage or to take a thirty year mortgage but pay off in 15 years. I don’t know anyone who did buy a house without the parents backing up the purchase. They may not of actually loaned the money but were there as an insurance policy in case something happened. My last apartment was bought in cash by a brother for his sister. A 400,000 one bedroom in whitestone, queens in 2005. Within a week of moving in the place was gutted and totally remodeled from inside a nice bubblegum pink Hello Kitty color. My parents are begging me to buy a house so they have someplace to put there baby boomer SS check. They are still working and do not need the money right now. To afraid to put more in the stock market, do not want to make 3% in a CD, and do not want to spend it frivously. They figure give it to me essentially get 4-5%guaranteed and somewhere to live in there golden years. I consider there money, my money, our money and vice versa. I am waiting though and not giving in till I feel comfortable with a good 50% downpayment or liquid assets
bairen, 359
4) 8 is very lucky in Chinese culture.
To see the desperation, see how many listings show list prices such as 499,888 or 627,888. Its like listing a house in Vegas for 777,777. Who wouldn’t buy that based on the lucky number theory?!?!?