March Beige Book

From the Federal Reserve:

Summary of Commentary on Current Economic Conditions

SECOND DISTRICT–NEW YORK

Second District’s economy has softened since the last report. Manufacturers report substantial weakening in business activity as of mid-February. Port activity is also reported to be weaker, while, more generally, contacts outside the manufacturing sector report deterioration in business activity and a pullback in hiring. Retailers indicate that sales have been below plan thus far in 2008, though inventories are reported to be at satisfactory levels. Tourism activity in New York City has shown some signs of slowing in recent weeks but remains strong. Housing markets continue to be sluggish, though Manhattan’s co-op and condo market has shown some resilience. Manhattan’s office market remains tight, but vacancy rates have edged up and rents have decelerated. Finally, bankers report some continued weakening in demand for new loans but a pickup in refinancing activity; respondents also report ongoing tightening in credit standards and rising delinquency rates, particularly on non-residential mortgages.

Housing markets in the District have generally weakened since the last report. New Jersey’s housing market is reported to have seen a decline in transactions, with large gaps between asking prices and offers. The inventory of available units remains high but has retreated somewhat, as some sellers have taken their homes off the market. Builders have curtailed most new construction projects; one industry expert cites as a major problem the fact that prices for redevelopment land have not come down in line with home prices.

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26 Responses to March Beige Book

  1. bairen says:

    A message to all sellers

    “Lower your expectations” … Charlie Munger

  2. bairen says:

    WaMu is not going to count mtg losses against its execs to calculate bonuses.

    http://money.cnn.com/news/newsfeeds/articles/newstex/AFX-0013-23558219.htm

  3. PeaceNow says:

    There was an open house on my Ocean Grove block last weekend. Brand-new Victorian-style house; many bells and whistles, and priced to reflect them. Not one person walked through the door. Not one.

  4. bairen says:

    #3 In Ocean Grove do you get to buy the land with the house? I thought all or most of the lots were leased and you bought the house.

  5. PeaceNow says:

    There’s a 99-year lease on the land. My “ground rent” is $10.50/year, and can’t be raised until around 2080; taxes are another matter. The ground rent for this place might be significantly higher though, since it’s new construction. I’ll have to look into that.

  6. shuky says:

    Grim

    Please, could you give me some history info of
    MLS ID# 2470240 ?
    thanks a lot

  7. njcoast says:

    The Camp Association of Ocean Grove always gives me the willies. The town reminds me of Shirley Jackson’s short story “The Lottery”.

  8. njpatient says:

    2
    Wow
    5 – that’s an odd arrangement – sounds like an American in Mexico (can’t own land).

  9. njpatient says:

    7
    There’s a blast from the middle school past. That story always sticks in my mind. Right there with Stepford, and the Most Dangerous Game.

  10. Sybarite says:

    #6

    1 Januson Ct.
    W. Orange

    LD: 1/02/08
    OLP/LP: $799,900
    DOM: 63

    I couldn’t find any other listings besdie that one.

  11. grim says:

    Jefferson Comp Killer

    13 Moosepac Lane

    Purchased: 7/16/2004
    Purchase Price: $560,000

    MLS# 2495417

    Currently Asking: $519,000

  12. njcoast says:

    Until the 1980’s nobody could drive a car on Sunday in Ocean Grove, no swimming on Sunday either. I used to sail my Hobie Cat onto the beach on Sunday just to watch the police stumble down the sand to kick me off. I believe it is still a dry town. And they just lost their state funding for the boardwalk gazebo because they refuse to allow same sex ceremonies there.

  13. grim says:

    Nice Ridgewood Lowball

    238 Heights Rd, Ridgewood NJ

    OLP/LP: $1,650,000
    DOM: 175

    Sold: $1,152,000
    Sale Price: 3/4/2008

    30% under asking?

  14. bairen says:

    #13 Wonder what that Ridgewood prop was going for in summer of 2005

  15. bairen says:

    Lawmakers looking into CEO pay and the mortgage crisis

    http://money.cnn.com/galleries/2008/news/0803/gallery.ceo_compensation/

    A little late. If your bonuses are based on quarterly or even annual growth instead of 3 or 5 year rolling averages it’s so easy to use creative accounting and do deals that make money in 06 but most likely will cause the company major losses 2 years later. And hey if the board likes you they can just ignore the results (see post 2 on this thread)

    But who cares as long as the execs get paid.

    These execs are not capitalists. They are not risking their own wealth. They are playing with house money. If their ideas work they get big fat bonuses, if they don’t they get big golden parachutes orhave the rules rewritten afterwards so they still win.

    And since the board is made up mostly of CEOs they just rubber stamp each other’s tickets. It’s a big con.

  16. PeaceNow says:

    NJCoast–The police chased you? Really? That must’ve been in the days before OG was incorporated with Neptune Township, like pre-1980ish. I doubt the Neptune cops would actively chase anyone these days on a Sunday, although the beach is still closed until 12:30. And, though the town’s still dry, virtually every restaurant allows BYOB. But yes, the Camp Meeting Association is a little scary.

  17. JBJB says:

    OT

    Wow, just watched Lebron James light up the Knicks for 50 pts, 10 asst, 8 reb, 4 steals. The guy is a monster (6’9″, 245 lbs), only 23 years old, and worth around 250 million. He’s got the ear of Warren Buffet and Jay Z. Truly a phenomenon.

  18. njpatient says:

    15 bairen

    That’s all spot on (particularly as to board composition). It’s part and parcel with the modern american definition of capitalism: privatized profits and socialized losses. The CEO corollary is personal benefit/company risk.

  19. njpatient says:

    Also, bairen, had to repeat this post from the last thread – too funny not to share:

    “#373 Bloodbath,
    I’ve been using the phrase “waiting for my stock options to vest.” Well I don’t have any stock options so it’s going to be a long wait.
    Got tired of telling people this was a bubble that was going to end badly. I think this summer the sellers are going to discover the market is like musical chairs, only someone removed 90% of the chairs at one shot.”

  20. JBJB says:

    Anybody have recommendations on good Shore towns for weekly summer rentals? We are looking for a nice, quite, beach front for a few couples w/ children, must be dog friendly. Not looking for party towns. Suggestions?

  21. bruiser says:

    JBJB, 17

    I could light up the Knicks for at least a double-double, and I’m 5’7″ 155 lbs of whiteness

  22. Shore Guy says:

    # 16 The Camp Meeting beach nazis still call the cops on people who try to walk the wet part of the beach on sunday mornings. Of course, the public trust doctrine protects the public’s right to most of the beach in OG (it was replenished with public $), notwithstanding the CMA’s attempts to prevent it.

    I actually went to the beach with my lawyer one sunday (after years of taking abuse while walking the wet sand on sunday mornings)and when the CMA called the cops — long story short — they had to admit that the CMA rules have to yield to the laws of NJ. The beach nazis were so ticked off.

  23. Shore Guy says:

    #22 cont. I love OG but the whole CMA thing is a real downer. If the CMA were ever sued, its only significant asset is the land. If they lose a suit, a whole heap of homeowners may find they have a new landlord.

  24. Shore Guy says:

    #20 Ocean Grove fits that to a tee. It is great for renatl. I would not buy there though.

  25. PeaceNow says:

    ShoreGuy—Interesting about the beach. I’ve never gone down on a Sunday to test the waters, so to speak. (ha-ha) But regarding the CMA’s assets and lawsuits, I wouldn’t worry. In the three years I’ve been living here full time, I’ve learned quite a bit about the CMA, and their assets are not limited to the land in OG. Plus I’m sure they have directors/officers insurance as well as liability, and they get lots of money and services donated. The lawyers representing them in the civil union lawsuit, for instance, volunteered for the job from some right-wing org based in Arizona.

    Re: renting. Ocean Grove, Bradley Beach, Avon—all nice towns. Ocean Grove is probably the least party-ish, though every summer it seems to get a little rowdier. (Or I’m just getting older and less rowdy.)

  26. manhattanexile says:

    Re Ridgewood Comp Killer (13):

    Grim –

    Troubled property that I believe was listed multiple times. RE taxes were way high (IIRC $32K+ p.a.) small old house on huge lot (35K sq ft.) prop needs work, think sellers already gone etc etc. Buyer was in-the-know local and good negotiator.

    Insult to injury for the previous owner: Village reassessed rceently at $1.519MM!!!!!

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