Thu 20 Mar 2008
Purchase Price: $590,000
Purchased: 5/16/2005
Current Asking Price: $499,000 (Short Sale)
15% under 2005 purchase price
Dorsett Drive, Mount Olive NJ
History
MLS# 2255782
Listed: 3/8/2006
Original List Price: $689,900
Reduced to: $634,899
Days on Market: 156
Withdrawn
MLS#: 2309154
Relisted: 8/11/2006
Original List Price: $634,899
Reduced to: $599,000
Days on Market: 155
Withdrawn
MLS#: 2385919
Relisted: 3/14/2007
Original List Price: $599,000
Reduced to: $583,333
Days on Market: 162
Withdrawn
MLS#: 2437705
Relisted: 8/23/2007
Original List Price: $583,333
Reduced to: $553,333
Days on Market: 144
Expired
MLS#: 2476370
Relisted: 1/14/2008
Original List Price: $536,000
Reduced to: $499,000
Days on Market: 66
Active
Why a comp killer, you ask?
2# Dorset
Purchased: 1/13/2006
Purchase Price: $575,000
4# Dorset
Purchased: 8/16/2006
Purchase Price: $652,000
4# Dorset
Purchased: 1/24/2005
Purchase Price: $601,000
Booya…
2/04/2006 03:24:00 PM
chicagofinance said…
The ARM reset issue means that you should be in no rush to enter the market. Target very specifically what you want, and bid aggressively using Grim’s lowball tactics. You may get your property today, next month, next year or in 2008, but you certainly do not have to worry about the market moving away from you any more.
Your personal situation dictates the right time to approach the market. There is no hard and fast rule or loud pop that will be heard.
We haven’t seen horrible sob stories, scenes of domestic violence, or a new reality show about a HOME REPO MAN.
There is a long road ahead of us, and it is going to be a sad one for me to witness :(
I was about to ask you to post recent nearby comps. You beat me to it.
Or these on the block over..
6# Karen Place
Purchased: 8/7/2006
Purchase Price: $650,000
4# Karen Place
Purchased: 8/24/2004
Purchase Price: $630,000
$499k is solid 2002/2003 territory for that development.
As evidenced by the sale of 2# Dorset, a similar home two doors down, at $503k in October of 2002.
grim: any interior pix on that? anything wrong with the neighborhood?
From the previous thread, about people who ARE deserving of sympathy -
How about soldiers returning badly wounded from Iraq, unable to serve longer but getting stiffed, without benefits or medical assistance?
Nice to see the Gov. has it’s priorities right.
US financial crisis is over, says Punk Ziegel’s Bove
The U.S. financial crisis is over but problems facing the economy are not, said Richard Bove, financial analyst with broker Punk Ziegel, adding that this was a “once in a generation” opportunity to buy bank stocks.
“I do, in fact, believe that the crisis is over. There will be more negative developments but they will be meaningless,” Bove wrote in a note to clients.
http://www.reuters.com/article/rbssFinancialServicesAndRealEstateNews/idUSBNG14754520080320?pageNumber=2&virtualBrandChannel=0
I must be exhausted. 499k seems like a decent price for that house.
Now, how do we get that price for that house about 15 miles closer to Manhatten?
Gary,
Maybe in the fall?
Now, how do we get that price for that house
Patience?
bairen and grim,
I’m locked and loaded. Let it happen. :)
I just checked realtor.com
saw 16 houses under 500k in Summit
even saw 1 for 349k in Chatham (5 more below 500k)
8 under 500k in Warren
I might actually be able to stay n NJ after all.
Now, how do we get that price for that house about 15 miles closer to Manhatten?
How about just for a house 15 miles closer than Mt Olive?
Anyone know the builder of that development? That house mysteriously looks exactly like 6 or 7 houses I’ve seen in Plainsboro, and 4 or 5 in Cranbury.
“grim Says:
March 20th, 2008 at 7:24 pm
Now, how do we get that price for that house
Patience?”
Wha’d'I miss?
Wow, yeah. That house looks like it would list for a million dollars (and sit on the market for a year or two, while the seller refuses to admit that it’s not a million-dollar house) on the opposite end of Morris County…
mitchell, sybarite
regrding sybarites question about mitchell and corn farms (ethanol)
Corn based ethanol is a dead end and is really nothing but another farm subsidy for corn farmers. The problem is that corn based ethanol is either a break even or net negative proposition when you consider how much oil ( fertilizer, fuel for tractors, etc) went into the production of that ethanol.
to put thing into perspective, oil companies do not even bother taking oil out of the ground if the EROEI (energy returned on energy invested) is less then between 5 and 8. corn based ethanol clocks in at between -1 and 2.
Ethanol can make sense in certain situations, and notice that i specified corn based ethanol. corn based ethanol is a joke. there are a handful of feedstocks that make ethanol a realistic proposition, such as sugar cane. Corn is not one of those.
Ethanol is not a realistic replacement for oil. the only 2 alternatives to oil that are likely to work on a large scale are electric transport or hydrogen. both of those are energy carriers, not energy sources. This topic is very detailed and not a short discussion, so i shall sufice it to say that corn farmers will make money on corn based ethanol for a time, but one food prices go high enough they will stop
Sweet Jesus, and to think its only March.. What the hell are we going to see in July?
From the Legal Intelligencer:
Lawyer and Client Sanctioned Over Client’s Outbursts
federal judge has levied sanctions of more than $29,000 on a lawyer and his client after finding that a deposition was a “spectacular failure” because of the client’s constant use of vulgar language and insults and dodging or refusing to answer questions, and his lawyer’s failure to rein him in.
In his 44-page opinion in GMAC Bank v. HTFC Corp., U.S. District Judge Eduardo C. Robreno found that Aaron Wider, the CEO of HTFC, engaged in “hostile, uncivil, and vulgar conduct, which persisted throughout the nearly 12 hours of deposition testimony.”
Robreno noted that Wider used the “F word” or variations of it 73 times during the deposition and that the video shows that his lawyer, Joseph R. Ziccardi of Chicago, at one point “snickered” at his client’s conduct.
Ziccardi was also to blame, Robreno found, because he failed to stop his client’s tirades and persuade him to answer questions.
“The nature of Wider’s misconduct was so severe and pervasive, and his violations of the Federal Rules of Civil Procedure so frequent and blatant, that any reasonable attorney representing Wider would have intervened in an effort to curb Wider’s misconduct,” Robreno wrote.
“Ziccardi’s failure to address, then and there, Wider’s misconduct could have no other effect but to empower Wider to persist in his behavior. Under these circumstances, the court equates Ziccardi’s silence with endorsement and ratification of Wider’s misconduct,” Robreno wrote.
I’m waiting for a fat pitch. (house back to 2001/2 or so prices)
I really thought we were going to have to leave good old NJ. But seeing so many houses under 500k in March in towns we’re looking at, maybe a good house at a fair price will come along in the next 6 to 18 months.
“Time is on my side”
Buffet and the Stones on the same post without tying. I really must be tired.
Q: This is your loan file. What do Mr. and Mrs. Fitzgerald do for a living?
A: I don’t know. Open it up and find it.
Q: Look at your loan file and tell me.
A: Open it up and find it. I’m not your f*cking bitch.
Q: Take a look at your loan application.
A: Do it yourself. Do it yourself. You want to do this in front of a judge. Would you prefer to [do] this in front of a judge? Then, shut the f*ck up.
Q: Sir, take a look–
A: I’m taking a break. F*ck him. You open up the document. You want me to look at something, you get the document out. Earn your f*cking money, assh*le. Better get used to it. You’ll retire when I’m done.
(Courtesy of the Consumerist)
kettle1 - I agree a boom for the farmers. A great grand uncle of mine “farms” about 10k acres in the midwest in the corn belt. This is an old man who hasn’t farmed for years and collects his subsidy checks, to keep his land idle. He has no equipment or manpower to farm corn. He was recently told by the USDA to begin farming again. Ethanol via corn is good for the farmers but reality is capacity will never put a dent in oil consumption anytime soon.
Also, clean coal is a myth, run away if anyone pitches that as an investment.
Too bad they don’t videotape these.
Q. And you have a hard time comprehending. We’re going to adjourn this deposition if this happens again because you are offending every single person.
A. Don’t speak for anybody in here except yourself f*ck face.
Q. I’m speaking for myself and I’m speaking for the Court Reporter.
A. If she had a problem with me she would say something. She knows it’s [not] directed toward her. It’s directed to you because you’re a piece of sh*t and a piece of garbage and I’m the only person in your life that is f*cking up your world and I enjoy it. I enjoy it and when you sit there and say I’m perpetrating a fraud I’m just better at the law than you are and you can’t get in the f*cking door and it’s pissing you off. Keep trying.
22, 24 grim
Nice
Check this one out from a Monsanto deposition (and be sure to read the previous bit from the QVC/Paramount deposition). Friend of mine was involved in both.
http://www.brainwidth.net/blog/2006/04/06/lawyerin-aint-easy/
You can also just have fun searching the phrase “don’t joe me, a$$hole”.
This kind of stuff winds up on the law-school syllabus
http://www.fr.com/jjs/Sept29.doc
From Forbes:
Philly Fed Results Mirror Prior Recessions
The Philly Fed says the manufacturing in the Mid-Atlantic region has improved, but the results of its business outlook survey on Thursday were still bleak.
Manufacturing in March saw an improvement at negative 17.4, up from negative 24.0 in February. Last month represented the lowest manufacturing activity level in seven years. The index reached negative 29.6 in February 2001, just prior to the U.S. entering recession. A figure of zero or above represents growth in manufacturing for the region. The Street had anticipated a figure of negative 20.
The Philly Fed index is “among the most reliable business cycle indicators,” said David Resler, chief economist at Nomura Securities. It is “unlikely to move into positive territory until the overall economy begins to improve.”
The Philly Fed survey began its decline in December posting a negative 1.6 indicator. It nosedived in January to negative 20.9 causing many economists to agree that a recession in the U.S. had begun.
Resler added that the decreases in the Philly Fed index are “reminiscent in both magnitude and timing of the decline that began in December 2000 to March 2001, just before the onset of the 2001 recession.”
since we talk finance so often here….
http://www.inspectd.com/
go ahead practice those skills!
Re: #24
I like to think of myself as a civilized (and admittedly Left-leaning) man, yet I can’t escape the impression that Mr. Wider’s attitude could immensely benefit from a sound beating!
Re: comp killer
Taxes on that listing are over $14,000, with the school budget, pension charges and town budget it could go over $15,000 a year.
NJ is drowning in debt, with no concievable way out.
JIM
Kettle1,
Re: Ethanol, everything I’ve read about ethanol as auto fuel is pretty much a pipe dream. But don’t forget that it makes for good politics for the politicians and good PR for some automakers, like General Motors, who are big proponents of ethanol. They’re pretty much bragging about their new dual-fuel engines (engines that can run on gasoline or ethanol) as a solution for global warming and our dependence on foreign oil. Yeah, right. When’s the Hummer H4 coming out?
http://dealbook.blogs.nytimes.com/2008/03/19/an-unhappy-lewis-prepares-to-act-on-bear-deal/index.html?hp
Unhappy Billionaire Prepares to Act on Bear Deal
March 19, 2008, 8:32 pm
Bear Stearns shareholders are understandably furious about the investment bank’s sale to JPMorgan Chase for about $2 a share. Now one of the largest of them is warning that he intends to try and stop it.
Joseph C. Lewis, the reclusive billionaire investor who is Bear’s second-largest shareholder, said in a regulatory filing that he will do anything “necessary and appropriate to protect the value” of his shares. What Mr. Lewis will do is left vague, but he says he may try to encourage Bear and others to consider “strategic transactions or alternatives.”
Through various entities, Mr. Lewis, a commodities trader who is friends with Bear chairman James E. Cayne, owns 12,136,724 shares, or an 8.35 percent stake.
The New York Post on Wednesday reported that Mr. Lewis had teamed up with Mr. Cayne to find some way to derail the JPMorgan deal. So far, the newspaper said, the two have contacted several former bidders for Bear, including private equity firms J. C. Flowers & Company and Kohlberg Kravis Roberts and foreign banks like the Royal Bank of Scotland, Barclays and Credit Suisse.
But the hurdles facing Mr. Lewis are extremely high, as DealBook and The Deal Professor have noted. JPMorgan right now essentially has a tight grip on Bear’s business, and the banking giant has what amount to call options to both Bear’s soaring Madison Avenue headquarters and 19.9 percent of its stock.
“bairen Says:
March 20th, 2008 at 7:28 pm
I just checked realtor.com
saw 16 houses under 500k in Summit
even saw 1 for 349k in Chatham (5 more below 500k)
8 under 500k in Warren
I might actually be able to stay n NJ after all.”
That’s why prices haven’t really gone down. There are lots of people ready to jump in as soon as prices reach the $500K level.
HC
#35 I’m still waiting. Guess I’m cheap and lazy. Another 10 to 15% reduction in list prices and i”ll get more interested
Corn is a viable path to ethanol, assuming you add the right amount of tax dollars.
I saw a listing for a Central Square condo in Metuchen. Yours for 299k. I haven’t seen any of those units listed below 300k since 2003.
Careful blokes…don’t fool yourself.
beware of the false bottoms.
:)
SAS
#39 sas
Is that something spitzer and clinton told you?
:D
was today’s market a dead cat bounce?
on a more serious note - has anybody seen a dead cat bounce? - that would freak me out big time.
Foreclosures in Whippany NJ:
http://realestate.yahoo.com/New_Jersey/Whippany/Homes_for_sale/result.html;_ylt=AipSJboyNiTevPUf5DKk403nMrQs?typeBak=realestate&p=whippany%2C+NJ&type=foreclosure&search=Search&priceLow=&priceHigh=&bedroomLow=&bathroomLow=&redir=1
I think there is a bottom around the 450k-550k mark (depending on locality and size)
We’ve been sitting looking in this range and are slowly seeing more homes..
450k will get u a 1 garage split in livingston
510k will get u a 3or4 bed ranch or bi-level in hanover/whippany
This is a good 10%+ drop from the peak.
What blows me away is that people are buying 1 bedroom condos across from headquarters plaza in mo-town for 380k! what up with that???
40
No
But I’ve seen a piano bounce.
“on a more serious note - has anybody seen a dead cat bounce?”
V,
No. However, I have witnessed investors/traders lie down with dirty dogs and contract a serious case of fleas.
Understanding inflation/deflation:
(for the few economically(?) challenged amongst us - including me)
http://web.mit.edu/krugman/www/babysit.html
BC Bob/Others
Few days back MS [?] introduced an ETF that tracked RMB. Do you happen to know the symbol?
Thanks
Kettle
re: Ethanol…
I don’t know the ins and outs of subsidies, kick-backs, ROI rates, etc…
But I can tell you this:
It doesn’t take an IQ of 200 to see that
you shouldn’t burn up your food source…
Especially to get to the mall.
47 spam
I laughed
I cried
Please, please shoot me.
The Long Johns comedy duo from the UK give a primer on subprime:
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=SJ_qK4g6ntM
Funny, although not politically correct, and factual at the same time.
I was living near that area till 2002. It is great neighborhood. I believe Kaplan build those houses from 1999 onward. They were I believe sold for 400K or so that time.
how far are we from using cellulose? to use as ethanol
grim (26)-
I like this guy!
BTW, this is how many mortgage people converse in daily life…
patient (28)-
This is good stuff! Did you go to Boalt Hall?
Trip (31)-
I think we could all use a dose of that guy’s rage against the machine.
vodka (34)-
Lewis should save his energy. He is- in the purest sense- the ultimate, all-time-champion “bagholder”.
With no takeover, what alternative is there for BSC other than an immediate declaration of bankruptcy?
The bondholders, in the senior position, might also take great exception to Messrs. Lewis and Cayne’s meddling.
vic (40)-
“…has anybody seen a dead cat bounce?”
No, but I’ve been to a lesb!an tractor pull.
Will there be a big party when we all finally buy our houses?
I agree with #10 bairen. $499k looks reasonable in this market.
spam (47)-
Especially when Brazil already produces enough cellulose ethanol to satisfy the entire US demand. It’d also be cheaper than corn ethanol…but there is a crippling tariff in place that makes it impossible to import a single drop of it.
Ethanol is a political boondoggle and pandering of the worst kind: the awarding of an entire industry to a narrow, yet politically-powerful constituency…even though the industry is a net loser, its product is of no benefit and the unintended consequences of the industry’s production have crippled the entire economy.
Ethanol is no less than economic cancer, metastasized.
grim - That HFTC file is f’n hilarious!!!
yome (51)-
About as far as from here to the moon (see #58). Unfortunately, Archer-Daniels, Monsanto and CSX don’t stand to profit from growing switchgrass and converting it into ethanol.
Funny, since cows and people don’t need to consume switchgrass- and since you don’t have to grow it on prime Iowa corn acreage- cellulose ethanol wouldn’t have an impact on commodities markets.
Corn ethanol: are the net results due to coincidence or conspiracy?
What’s Mount Olive like?
I take back what I said. Curiosity struck me so I checked on GSMLS for houses in Mount Olive at the $499k range. This house is probably priced right for the market. That being said, it is outside my range for NYC commuter neighborhoods. Two hour commute on NJ Transit!
i need to wait until house prices are less than 300. we could afford way more, but the taxes… eep. i don’t want to be in a position where i can *just* afford mortgage + taxes, and then have someone raise the taxes on us. it’s worse than an ARM, because at least you know *when* the adjustment is coming. tax increases can hit anytime… and you can’t refinance out of them.
Mount Olive is great but the taxes are big on this property. Estimated at 14K
14k on a 499k house? Damn. Thanks for the info!
I grew up in MO. Used to be a great town. They pretty much have developed every tract of land with houses. I think that is a TOLL Bros. house. They have the highest tax rate in Morris county.
This neighborhood is surrounded by high power lines. This particular house shown is just about 100 feet from the high powerline. The owner must be a fool to buy in this neighborhood with that price.
Don’t forget this house has to pay more than $14,000 for tax.
A neighbor house sold recently with the last asking price of $500,000. The sold price is unknown now. Another house in the same street still asks more than $560,000.
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