Thu 27 Mar 2008
Congratulations to Mary J. Blige on her skillfully executed Saddle River Lowball!
Original List Price: $17,000,000
Last List Price: $13,900,000
Sale Price: $12,300,000
(28% under original list price!)
From the Daily News:
Mary J. Blige pays $12M for N.J. mansion
It’s a castle fit for the Queen of Hip Hop.
Grammy winner Mary J. Blige plunked down $12.3 million in cash for a Saddle River, N.J., mansion, the Daily News has learned.
“She fell in love with this one,” a source said of Blige, who checked out several houses in the swanky area before settling on the 18,250-square-foot dream pad.
Thanks to the sagging housing market, the 37-year-old best-selling singer got a relative bargain.
The house originally went on the market last year for $17 million and was reduced this year to $13.9 million, the source said.
Lovely
From the WSJ:
Jumbo FHA Mortgages
May Have Higher Rates
By JAMES R. HAGERTY
March 27, 2008; Page A6
Mortgage borrowers seeking the new supersized loans backed by the Federal Housing Administration will have to pay a sizable premium, Wall Street analysts say.
Trying to prop up the housing market, Congress recently approved legislation that raises the ceiling on loans the FHA can insure to as much as $729,750 from $362,790 in the highest-cost areas. The limits are due to expire at the end of this year, but pending legislation could bring a permanent increase in loan sizes.
Early bidding by mortgage-bond dealers suggests the larger FHA-insured loans will require interest rates around 0.375 percentage point higher than rates on normal FHA loans, said Mahesh Swaminathan, a mortgage strategist at Credit Suisse in New York.
The rates could be higher than that estimate, though. Chris Freemott, president of All American Mortgage Corp., a lender in Naperville, Ill., said early indications from the investors that buy his loans are that the rate will need to be at least about 0.5 point higher on the bigger loans. He said the current rate for a normal 30-year fixed-rate FHA loan is about 5.875%, while the rate on a larger one is around 6.375%.
The larger FHA loans are being bundled into securities that are separate from those backed by traditional FHA loans. Mr. Swaminathan said investors will require higher yields on the new type of loans because larger mortgages are more subject to refinancing when rates dip and because the market for the securities backed by larger FHA loans won’t be as large and so it won’t be as easy to trade them.
Government-sponsored investors Fannie Mae and Freddie Mac also are introducing larger loans under the temporary authority from Congress. Early indications are that the larger Fannie and Freddie loans may require interest rates about 0.5 point higher than ordinary ones, Mr. Swaminathan said.
From MarketWatch:
Lennar swings to loss as revenue drops 62%
Miami homebuilder Lennar Corp. said it swung to a first-quarter ending Feb. 29 loss of $88.2 million, or 56 cents a share, with revenue dropping 62% to $1.06 billion. “Market conditions have remained challenged and continued to deteriorate throughout our first quarter of 2008,” the firm said.
From the BBC:
Job cuts shake Wall Street nerves
Wall street is in crisis.
The economy may not officially be in recession, but at this point that just seems like semantics.
The US’s fifth largest investment bank; Bear Stearns has had to be bailed out.
Lehman Brothers and Citigroup - New York’s financial royalty - are slashing jobs.
In Manhattan alone they have cut 5,000 and more layoffs are expected.
And as the big bucks go, so does the big spending.
The city is already feeling the bite.
This can’t be good..
From MarketWatch:
One of Iraq’s two main pipelines blown up: report
Interesting piece by John Berry from Bloomberg:
Fed Actions Defuse Subprime ARM Rate Reset Bomb: John M. Berry
Many analysts and public officials have said that foreclosures of subprime adjustable-rate mortgages would soar this year as owners’ monthly payments jumped when interest rates reset to a higher level.
Not only is that unlikely to happen, this year’s resets of earlier vintages of subprime mortgages may even reduce some payments that increased in 2007.
The reason? The index to which many ARMs are tied is the six-month London inter-bank offered rate, or Libor, and that rate has fallen from more than 5.3 percent last fall to about half that level.
If you have the time and desire, I highly recommend this paper from Adam Ashcraft and Til Schuermann at the NY Fed. This paper formed the basis of the John Berry commentary above.
Understanding the Securitization of Subprime Mortgage Credit
Don’t worry, you don’t need to be a NY Fed Economist to be able to understand this paper.
This paper is also somewhat historic, as it contains a footnote that references the well-known blog, Calculated Risk. You read that right, a blog referenced in a NY Fed paper. Bloggers be proud!
You never know who you might be talking to on the other end of the alias.
Now I know my tax dollars are being spent frivolously.
If staffers at NYFed are hanging out in blogs all day, can you imagine all the gubmint employees loafing around reading garbage like NJREREPORT?
If I were a CEO and found out my peons were reading economics blogs, I’d…I’d…I’d
ask them for some help getting through the next two years.
From the Philly Inquirer:
Editorial: A Foreclosure Moratorium
As many as 16,500 New Jersey homeowners with subprime loans will face foreclosure this year.
That’s why State Sen. Ronald Rice (D., Essex) and Assembly Majority Leader Bonnie Watson-Coleman (D., Essex) want a six-month moratorium on foreclosures. Their bill also provides counseling services and loans to consumers up to $5,000.
The program would be paid for with $1 million from the state Housing and Mortgage Finance Agency, plus funds generated by making lenders pay a $2,000 fee to foreclose on a house.
The fee is a risky move in a high-tax state that’s already seeing companies move out. But the sentiment is understandable.
Lenders won’t be so quick to make risky subprime loans leading to foreclosure if they know it may cost them such a penalty.
The new program would allow persons whose home is lost to foreclosure to stay as renters until it is purchased. It also requires the purchasers to live in the house. The aim is to discourage speculators who buy up foreclosed homes to use as rental property.
Rice and Watson-Coleman also want to save neighborhoods from becoming blighted with vacant houses left by families who could no longer afford the mortgages.
The New Jersey legislation, if enacted, could be a good accompaniment to the federal government’s bailout plan that aims to prevent foreclosure for up to 1.2 million homeowners by freezing their loan rates or refinancing their mortgages.
So Rutherford omitted the Chief of Police position saving $100,000 a year. Instead, they now have a civilian police director who can not make arrests, issue tickets or really do any police work. Well..this is a step backwards…
Speaking of cuts..
From the Jersey Journal:
Hoboken Bd of Ed votes to cut non-tenured teachers
Neither pleas from teachers and parents nor political grandstanding could stop passage of next year’s Board of Education budget - and its projected layoffs of 15 to 20 non-tenured teachers.
Teachers and parents at Tuesday night’s budget hearings said the layoffs would be a severe blow to teacher morale, but officials said rising costs made the cuts were necessary.
From the Daily Record:
Mt. Olive may cut 50 school jobs
The school board’s proposed $79.2 million budget calls for cutting more than 50 staff positions and could lead to the elimination of middle school athletics and some student activity clubs.
tbw Chiefs don’t do police work. They run the force & now we aren’t on the hook for life time medical & pension.
“That’s why State Sen. Ronald Rice (D., Essex) and Assembly Majority Leader Bonnie Watson-Coleman (D., Essex)”
[9],
I got this far and stopped. BARF.
GRIM 11,12 Now we have a step in the right direction no money you must cut, not raise taxes or borrrow.
(10) TBW
As Mike mentioned i don’t expect Police chief’s to issue tickets and make arrests. They just ‘manage’ the herd.
Edison has already got a civilian police director after the previous chief retired last year.
#13: What qualifies a civilian police director to run something he/she knows nothing about? That is like having a manager at McDonalds become a manager at a medical corporation.
Mary J…..dayum….she could care less what lenders say….c-c-c-cash…..
Screw Beijing….If I have to go the rest of the year hearing about how lame these morons are after they own 1/2 our asses…and sell our kids cheap lead laden crap….I might just say NUKE the Olympics.
Speaking of cuts..
From the Jersey Journal:
Hoboken Bd of Ed votes to cut non-tenured teachers
Neither pleas from teachers and parents nor political grandstanding could stop passage of next year’s Board of Education budget - and its projected layoffs of 15 to 20 non-tenured teachers.
Teachers and parents at Tuesday night’s budget hearings said the layoffs would be a severe blow to teacher morale, but officials said rising costs made the cuts were necessary.
Although i don’t have a link (only because i can’t find one) but I know in the Woodbridge district where my wife works that there isn’t going to be enough “DEPA” money to go around so all first year teachers will be let go in the entire district. All second and third year teachers can stay.
Pret,
Did you read that BBC article?
“In Manhattan alone they have cut 5,000 and more layoffs are expected.”
That isn’t Manhattan, Kansas, big guy
“Screw Beijing….”
Essex [18],
Funny, the markets are singing the same song regarding the Shanghai Index.
Hoboken plan sounds good move administrators
into classrooms cut pay & give other teachers full class loads.This could be done across the state & it will as revenue dries out & tax payers tapped out.
Rates;
Dreyfus Basic NJ Muni Money Market still at 3.15% and intervest bank in NY has MM at 3.75% plus first central bank of queens has six and 12 month cds at 3.73 and 3.84. But as soon as uncle bernie cuts again on april 30 even these measly high rates will be history until 2009.
grim Says:
March 27th, 2008 at 7:16 am
From the BBC:
Job cuts shake Wall Street nerves
Wall street is in crisis.
grim: from article
Lengthy process
The bronze statue of a charging bull is a hint at so-called “bull markets” when everyone on Wall Street is optimistic.
It remains a symbol of hope.
Now its more private parts are rubbed for a bit of a change in fortune.
You can imagine they are looking pretty shiny at the moment.
grim Says:
March 27th, 2008 at 7:49 am
Speaking of cuts..
From the Jersey Journal:
Hoboken Bd of Ed votes to cut non-tenured teachers
Neither pleas from teachers and parents nor political grandstanding could stop passage of next year’s Board of Education budget - and its projected layoffs of 15 to 20 non-tenured teachers.
Teachers and parents at Tuesday night’s budget hearings said the layoffs would be a severe blow to teacher morale, but officials said rising costs made the cuts were necessary.
grim: how about cutting 15 to 20 non-tenured no-show jobs……HBOE needs to be shot in the head….multiple times….Hoboken Board of Graft is more like it….
chfi 25 lets do both that would help even more.I was born in Hoboken & grew up in Hudson Cty.The political jobs are out of control.The guys arrested in NO.Bergen & others are all people I know, went to school with almost all of them.Hudson county is the most corrupt in the state.
That’s a nice house.
SAN FRANCISCO (Reuters) - Auditor KPMG either initiated accounting fraud at New Century Financial Corp (NEWCQ) or stood idly by as the failed subprime mortgage lender committed fraud in 2005 and 2006, an independent report requested by the U.S. Department of Justice shows.
Once the second-largest U.S. subprime lender, New Century filed for Chapter 11 bankruptcy protection last April 2, and was one of the first major casualties of the current U.S. housing crisis, which has roiled global financial markets. It had been one of the largest U.S. providers of home loans to people with poor credit.
The 581-page report by court examiner Michael Missal concluded that New Century “engaged in a number of significant improper and imprudent practices related to its loan originations, operations, and financial reporting.”
KPMG contributed to some of these accounting and financial errors “by enabling them to persist and, in some instances, precipitating the company’s departures from applicable accounting standards,” Missal concluded.
#6 - Interesting article. It begs the unraised question of how long can the rates be held this low? And at what cost?
Please everyone a moment of silence.
LOS ANGELES — A Southern California McDonald’s restaurants official says Egg McMuffin inventor Herb Peterson has died in Santa Barbara at age 89.
grim,
I passed by that house at 1285 Van Houten last night just to take a look. I can’t believe they took a hit like that… what was it originally, around 525K and sold for around 360K a few years later. Wow. And the house was no great shakes to begin with.
Neither pleas from teachers and parents nor political grandstanding could stop passage of next year’s Board of Education budget - and its projected layoffs of 15 to 20 non-tenured teachers.
Teachers and parents at Tuesday night’s budget hearings said the layoffs would be a severe blow to teacher morale, but officials said rising costs made the cuts were necessary.
They should do like AT&T did in the Great Depression, rather than layoff’s, they cut everyone’s salary. I’m sure the “Tenured Teachers” would support that as “It’s for the Children”, and would retain teacher morale.
Essex (304, from yesterday’s “Have Mercy” thread)-
“We’re able to do new product engineering in Bangalore as easily as we’re able to do it in Austin, Texas,” he said, referring to the Indian city where many international companies have “outsourced” technical and customer support workers.
“I know you don’t like hearing that, but that’s the way it is,” he said.
Stephenson said neither he nor most Americans liked the situation, and the solution was a stronger U.S. focus on education and keeping jobs. Business needed to help, such as AT&T’s repatriation of service positions and education grants, he added.”
This guy should be arrested, tried and executed. I’m on the foundation board at Somerset Co. Vo-Tech, and we’ve been putting together a Summer Institute for area teachers. The purpose of this institute is to allow high school-level teachers to directly interface with large employers in the Central NJ area, in order to understand what skills these employers need most in entry-level candidates. The hope is simply that our teachers can then go back into the classroom and work on imparting those skills.
When we announced the Institute, AT&T agreed to participate by sponsoring a day of events. To their credit, plenty of other local corporations agreed to join us.
However, just a few days ago, AT&T backed out. They evidently don’t have the “resources” (or, more likely the desire) to invest in keeping jobs in this area…especially when they can be exported offshore, to a labor base making pittance wages.
Sad day. I guess the torch is passed to Bergabe?
“Mugabe’s Days Numbered Regardless of Vote, Mining Industry Bets”
http://www.bloomberg.com/apps/news?pid=20601109&sid=aZfgp_WqoSb8&refer=home
sx (18)-
I’m surprised no one has drawn parallels between Beijing ‘08 and Berlin ‘36.
This Summer’s Olympics will go down as one of the biggest propaganda events in history.
Of course, we sheeple will lap this one up.
Ex-Glen Ridge mayor calls for Corzine recall
Carl Bergmanson, an independent who was the Essex County town’s mayor until December, said his long-simmering anger at the Democratic governor boiled over this spring when Corzine proposed municipal aid cuts to small towns. Bergmanson filed a notice of intent with the state Attorney General’s Office — the first attempt to recall a governor in New Jersey since the law allowing it passed in 1995.
http://tinyurl.com/25uutv
Mike (22)-
BTW, middle school athletics can easily be cut, as in many areas of NJ, club sport programs are better-run, better-coached and better-capitalized.
http://www.cues.org/pls/cuesp/!cues1.main?complex_id_in=3069489.3071923.3080851.11715218.page
On Compliance: The ‘Next Big Thing’ in Mortgages
Proposed changes to Reg Z mark the Fed’s first attempt to define subprime loans and attach requirements to them
(28)-
Damn. These audit firms never learn, do they?
Slogan for KPMG?: “Your Partner in Fraud”
From The Record:
Developer had 20-20 foresight
Two years ago, Robert Ambrosi, president of ARC Properties Inc., saw a storm coming.
At the time, the Clifton-based lease management and development company owned dozens of properties across the country, from office towers in Texas to research buildings in Indiana. Many of these holdings were a result of ARC’s drive to become a real estate investment trust, a trend that swept through the industry starting 15 years ago.
But instead of morphing into something like Paramus-based Vornado Realty Trust, a publicly traded REIT, ARC decided it did not want to be a national REIT.
Just this month, the company completed a two-year liquidation process. ARC has sold 26 properties across the U.S. worth an estimated $212 million, and has reconfigured its scope to focus on the tri-state area, with a focus on New Jersey.
“Our timing has been extraordinary,” Ambrosi said.
“We saw lenders making crazy loans, people buying things that didn’t include reserves, vacancy factors, capital improvement factors — the underwriting just got out of hand.
“Then you had grandmothers speculating on condos, buying them to flip. We saw this happening 18 months ago and saw it was time to get out.”
…
ARC is taking a somewhat different tack from other private companies awash in cash; not only is ARC buying new properties, it is building projects as well.
The company has 30 development projects under way, the majority of which are in New Jersey.
…
Though some of ARC’s projects are built for clients such as Walgreens, Target and Home Depot, many of them are speculative — buildings with no specified tenants. Building speculative projects has become increasingly uncommon in New Jersey because of stagnant vacancy rates and a lack of demand. But Ambrosi said there are still opportunities for speculative projects, as long as they are located in key areas.
BC (33)-
Zimbabwe’s inflation rate topped 100.000% last month.
A meal for four in a restaurant there is now around 45 billion dollars.
Of course, if you have USD, the same meal is 19 bucks. Their economy’s now transitioned entirely to barter and foreign currencies. Not a great sign.
Anybody sees huge vacanvy rates??
In Piscataway on Centennial drive - there are huge buildingas, and ALL are for rents. Teher are miles of empty buildings just sitting for over a years now.
With no Job grows are they going to sit empty forever?
From The Record:
Trump averts tax sale of Meadowlands site
Manhattan real estate mogul Donald Trump plunked down $262,692 Wednesday morning for back taxes on the troubled EnCap golf project.
The check, hand-delivered by Trump’s executive vice president, Michael Cohen, staved off a tax sale that had been scheduled for noon in North Arlington. Borough officials said EnCap owes them a total of $450,000 on back taxes for 70 acres of land where the developer once planned to build a luxury housing community.
…
EnCap broke ground in 2004 on a grand plan to transform old landfills in Rutherford and Lyndhurst into a resort destination of links-style golf courses, shops, a hotel and luxury housing units. The state designated Trump as the project’s manager after EnCap defaulted on key agreements.
Next month, Trump said, he will unveil detailed plans that would make sweeping changes in the EnCap plan, including 2 million square feet of retail space and thousands of additional apartments in mid- and high-rise buildings.
Rich (39)-
This is a guy with dry powder!
#41-Moderation
Probably because the article says EnCap more than twice.
From the London Review of Books, comes this brilliant slice of analysis:
>
“My friend Tony, however, is sanguine. ‘Sorting out who’s in the shit is going to be a nightmare, but when it all shakes out, all it’ll mean is that credit is a little bit more expensive. That’s a good thing. It had got crazy. It was cheaper for companies to borrow money from other companies than it was for governments. That’s nuts. These things are cyclical, it had all just gone too far and we needed a correction.’
‘So we’ll have to stop running around spending money like drunken sailors,’ I said.
‘Well, drunk sailors tend to be spending their own money,’ Tony said. ‘By contemporary standards they’re quite prudent.’
From Bloomberg:
Banks Fail to Lower Mortgage Rates as Bernanke Cuts Money Costs
Marjorie Killian is eager to buy a home in San Diego and is pre-approved for a mortgage. She won’t make an offer on a property until she can get a fixed rate of 5.5 percent, she said.
Killian is just the kind of buyer that Federal Reserve Chairman Ben Bernanke needs to entice to revive the U.S. housing market and halt its drag on the economy. Lenders aren’t helping the central bank even after they’ve been given seven interest rate cuts and a new program designed to jumpstart borrowing.
The difference between the 10-year government bond yield and the average U.S. fixed mortgage rate was 2.7 percentage points last month, the widest spread since 1986, data compiled by Bloomberg show. Banks are defying Bernanke and hoarding cash after writing down the value of more than $200 billion of mortgage-related securities since July. The banking industry’s earnings fell to a 16-year low of $5.8 billion in the fourth quarter of 2007, ending six years of record profits, according to the Federal Deposit Insurance Corp. in Washington.
“The Fed is trying to drive a car with only slight control of the steering wheel and no control of the gas or the brakes,” Clive Granger, the 2003 Nobel laureate in economics and professor emeritus at University of California, San Diego, said in an interview. “In order to stabilize the economy, people need access to mortgages at rates they can afford, and so far the Fed hasn’t been able to do much about that.”
…
Banks are rebuilding their battered balance sheets and are likely to remain “skittish” about passing on lower borrowing costs to homebuyers until their capital levels improve, said Henry Savage, president of PMC Mortgage Corp., an Alexandria, Virginia-based lender that serves seven states.
“For the moment, fixed mortgage rates seem to have disconnected from the 10-year Treasury bond,” Savage said. “Lenders are nervous.”
“In Manhattan alone they have cut 5,000 and more layoffs are expected.”
That CAN’T be true!! Manhattan is immune to the downturn!
“Nice” house. Looks like the place where Jason Williams murdered his driver. Accidentally, of course.
#49 njpatient; They must mean Manhattan Beach California.
njpatient, have been keeping tabs on the main line prices? just curious, i’m happily renting in old city but have dog eared a couple of properties to track over the next year or so.
36:
http://www.washingtonpost.com/wp-dyn/content/article/2008/03/25/AR2008032503207.html?hpid=topnews
I’ve seen the echos of ‘36 addressed pretty regularly. But you’re right: the so-called MSM has too much skin in the game (GE’s got 3.2 billion riding on the broadcast rights) to report on Beijing ‘08 objectively.
I guess prices and affordability do matter…BOOYA to all those NJ bulls who don’t see a secular decline in process.
Sun Belt is growth hotspot
Figures suggest almost 1 in 6 Americans moving out of state went to Texas
The Associated Press
updated 5:16 a.m. ET, Thurs., March. 27, 2008
DALLAS - Four Texas metropolitan areas were among the biggest population gainers as Americans continued their trend of moving to the Sun Belt in 2006 and 2007, according to Census Bureau estimates to be released Thursday.
Dallas-Fort Worth added more than 162,000 residents between July 2006 and July 2007, more than any other metro area. Three other Texas areas — Houston, Austin and San Antonio — also cracked the top 10.
Atlanta saw the second-largest population jump with just over 151,000 new residents. Phoenix was third with more than 132,000, and was followed by Houston, Riverside, Calif., Charlotte, N.C., Chicago, Austin, Las Vegas and San Antonio.
Of the 50 fastest-growing metro areas, 27 were in the South and 20 were in the West. Two were in the Midwest, one — Fayetteville, Ark. — straddles the South and Midwest and none was in the Northeast.
Detroit dips
Detroit lost more than three times as many people as any other metro area — its population declined more than 27,300. Other areas losing more than 5,000 people were Pittsburgh, Cleveland, Columbus, Ga., Youngstown, Ohio, and Buffalo, N.Y.
Experts credit much of the growth in the South to relatively strong local economies and housing prices that are among the most affordable in the United States.
“People are running away from unaffordable housing, from the economic slowdown,” said Karl Eschbach, a state demographer in Texas. “I would expect Texas to stay at the top of a slowing game.”
According to figures compiled by Eschbach, 16 percent of Americans who moved to other states between July 2006 and July 2007 came to Texas, which led the nation for the second straight year in that category.
Home prices continue to be a big factor. A report earlier this month by Global Insight found that housing prices in the Dallas area were undervalued by as much as 30 percent.
Inexpensive homes
Ann Sekesan, a pharmacy technician, moved her family from Pennsylvania to suburban Fort Worth last June after seeing spacious homes in Texas for under $200,000 on a television show.
“After we saw that on TV, my husband and I looked at each other and said, ‘Have you ever been to Texas?” Sekesan said. “It’s amazing the size of a home you can get down here. It’s just incredible.”
Among other Census Bureau findings:
# On a percentage basis, the Palm Coast, Fla., area was the fastest-growing in the nation. Population there jumped by 7.2 percent to more than 536,000. The next areas experiencing the biggest surge in growth were St. George, Utah; Raleigh, N.C; Gainesville, Ga.; and Austin.
# The New Orleans area, recovering from Hurricane Katrina, grew by 4 percent or nearly 40,000 people, putting it 16th in terms of raw numbers but eighth for percentage growth. During the same survey last year, the population of New Orleans dropped by nearly 290,000 people.
Is anyboldy here in the 10,000-name-long client list?
Client #9 really demands higher standard: bachelor’s degree, speaking at least two languages …
http://www.nypost.com/seven/03272008/news/regionalnews/and_there_he_hos_again_103741.htm?page=1
http://www.nydailynews.com/gossip/galleries/mary_j_bliges_posh_palace_fit_for_hip_hop_queen/mary_j_bliges_posh_palace_fit_for_hip_hop_queen.html
11 pictures including inside of that saddle river house
[48],
Someday it may click. The problem has NEVER been attributed to interest rate levels. Lending money to those that can’t/won’t pay back is simply reckless. Now the banks are buried with worthless crap.
HELLO. It’s very elementary. Debt has to either be paid back or “simply” written off. Debt does not give a rats #ss whether rates are 0% or 25%. It’s debt/insolvency, stupid. Can’t wait for a Presidential candidate to shout that one.
10:
Not all that different than civilian leadership of the military, an idea that works pretty well as long as you don’t have a vainglorious half-wit like Donald Rumsfeld pulling the strings…
Last time I heard of a C-o-P making a bust is when the Chief of the Scranton, PA police caught some guy trying to break into his car back in the early ’80s.
reL (37) Glen Ridge population is 7,271.
I gather they don’t want to merge with Montclair or Bloomfield?
This is going to be fun battle, Glen Ridge is the epicenter for high taxes, some columnist coined “Glen Ridge Syndrome” a while back, where you have a sign on your lawn congratulating your last kid’s graduation and a Forsale sign at the same time.
where you have a sign on your lawn congratulating your last kid’s graduation and a Forsale sign at the same time.
This is not a joke, it really happens. The Glen Ridge market is driven very strongly by the academic calendar. The gas lamps are nice, but why else would you live there?
I did hear a comment once that Glen Ridge was one of the only municipalities with no long term debt, which is the reason taxes are so high. I’ve not been able to confirm that, so if anyone has insight into that, I’d love to hear it.
all i know about glen ridge is there are finally sfr there for under 400k. (399 for a 3 bdrm! woot!)… can’t wait to see what they get to next spring…
I wonder when Bloomberg is going to show up on somebody’s list?
(To me this is significant, because when I told our realtor that I was looking at houses in the 400 range, expecting them to come down 100k by the time we were ready to buy, her eyes got very big and she said, “But that won’t happen *here*…” I wanted to pat her hand, because she said it so believeably.
Rockland Human Rights Commission fines real estate agencies
http://www.lohud.com/apps/pbcs.dll/article?AID=/20080327/NEWS03/803270436
Divorce Forces Sale. Must Sell. Make An Offer.
I love it when realtors advertise how desparate the owner is to sell on their MLS site. Does ex-wife come with house for free?
#59 grim I know quite a few people in River Edge who have the same plan wait for the last kid to graduate HS, and then they are gone.
The only problem is some of them will not be able to go, as they have sucked out all of their equity, and prices are now declining.
River Edge went from having one of the more resonable property taxes in Bergen county, to the 3rd highest in 5 years.
John,
It would be my honor to represent you, in submitting a contract that includes an “ex-wife must be included” contingency. Although I’m not sure I’ll be able to keep a straight face while presenting it.
Clot,
How would we word the chattel provision in this case?
3b,
That’s because River Edge is prestigous.
grim [66],
And don’t forget the “will not feed the squirrels” contingency.
Wall St. is running out of suckers, I am buying back into Gold.
http://in.reuters.com/article/asiaCompanyAndMarkets/idINN2633332520080327
Glen Ridge has no ratables whatsoever. This is why their taxes are so high. The entire town, except for a couple of retail shops on their tiny piece of Bloomfield Avenue is residential. The town has not floated bonds probably because they realize that there would be no way to recover from this tactic without the ability to bring in ratables which would require demolishing homes. More towns should follow their lead.
Ho-Ho-Kus
SLD 19 LAKEWOOD AVE $472,000 9/18/2000
(Under contract twice while at $649,900)
ACT 19 LAKEWOOD AVE $649,900 11/13/2006
PCH 19 LAKEWOOD AVE $595,000 4/27/2007
PCH 19 LAKEWOOD AVE $548,000 5/9/2007
EXP 19 LAKEWOOD AVE $548,000 5/31/2007
(I believe REO)
ACT 19 LAKEWOOD AVE $487,000 3/26/2008
Saddle River is Crips’ territory, Mary J.!
1, 2, 3, you can’t see me!
If you want to see empty buildings, drive along Alexander road in Princeton. Someone should buy these building and build condos.
Noticed on my way to work today that retail space is available in the Best Buy mini mall in Union. This is a new sign.
73#, with 3rd round COAH rules pending, princeton township/borough as well as high-end condo developers is not willing to add more housing to the community.
Rich,
A Y2K price in HoHoKus? Wow..
Slightly OT,
SO as i have gained a better understanding of the current housing/credit/banking fiasco, it seems to me that the entire event, from the runup of home process to the credit mess with massive levels of leverage is all dependent on the credit rating agencies willingness to give AA ratings to financial devises that should not have ever received such a rating. SO while green span may ave lit the fire with ridiculously low interest rates, it looks to me like the credit rating agencies supplied the fuel. Without the credit rating agencies the banks could never have marketed all their CDO”s and other various financial instruments as AAA debt that everyone wanted to buy and then even with the low interest rates we would not have seen a run up anywhere near the extent that we have.
Am i that far off base on this? or is this pretty much what has happened? If this is the case the credit rating agencies should be hung out to dry as how is this nay different then a large scale form of price (credit rating) collusion?
grim (66)- Ex wife being relegated to chattel. Me thinks this could complicate things a bit.
FYI: COAH PROPOSES NEW THIRD ROUND RULES
If it is passed, I guess no middle or upper scale towns are willing to add more commercial or residential properties.
“New ratios are 1 affordable unit among 5 units and 1 affordable unit for every 16 jobs (previously ratios were 1 among 9 units and 1 for every 25 jobs)”
http://www.nj.gov/dca/coah/dec07proposal.shtml
59 Grim - I believe you are right about this. Recently the town wanted to float bonds to astroturf the school athletic fields and it was hugely controversial.
http://www.baristanet.com/2007/10/glen_ridge_turf_war_heading_to.php
http://www.baristanet.com/2006/11/glen_ridge_approves_referendum.php
Kettle1: The rating agencies were hired by the investment banks to rate their CDOs and other toxic crap products. It is an obvious conflict of interest resulting in biased ratings.
Question:
Is that Saddle River mansion located on Ackerman Road?
#67 gary:That’s because River Edge is prestigous.
It was better when we did not think we were prestigious.
#77
Seems to me that credit agencies may have been the enablers, but there was failure to properly appraise risk across the board. when big institutional investors buy whatever is rated AAA, they are simply outsourcing their management duties to the rating agencies. to the extent that everybody knows they do this, this sort of thing was bound to happen sooner or later. if it wasn’t CDOs, it would have been something else. basically I am saying it takes two to tango
Kettle1:
All you need to know is that the banks and the mortgage buyers were both speculating that housing prices would forever increase.
The investment banks, needed leverage to increase their profit growth and found it through the use of packaging and selling these toxic mortgages.
All would have been fine, but unfortunately, housing prices do not always continuously rise and as the prices fall, the quality of the loans deteriorate. Since these loans were leveraged on the way up, the pain on the way down is also leveraged. Hence, banks not willing to take on new loans and hording cash to survive (credit crunch).
ChiFi/Grim, let me know if I’m missing anything here in my laymen’s explanation.
Clotpoll Says:
March 27th, 2008 at 9:09 am
Essex (304, from yesterday’s “Have Mercy” thread)-
This guy should be arrested, tried and executed. I’m on the foundation board at Somerset Co. Vo-Tech, and we’ve been putting together a Summer Institute for area teachers.
However, just a few days ago, AT&T backed out. They evidently don’t have the “resources” (or, more likely the desire) to invest in keeping jobs in this area…especially when they can be exported offshore, to a labor base making pittance wages.
clot: it is not the same AT&T….the company is really SBC with an AT&T logo. There are no local call centers. All the jobs require post-secondary education or else base level interpersonal skills. The only votech stuff is through the CWA, and those jerks are useless. If AT&T is going to fall on its sword, it will do so in Texas.
Verizon and the pharma companies should be the priority.
http://concealedcampus.org/
Great pro gun website
Just when you thought news could not get worse, this gem shows up.
From Bloomberg:
http://www.bloomberg.com/apps/news?pid=20601110&sid=aS9BmyNJr0wU
My mother lives in River Edge. 10k a year property taxes on a small fixed income
Confused In NJ Says:
March 27th, 2008 at 9:09 am
Neither pleas from teachers and parents nor political grandstanding could stop passage of next year’s Board of Education budget - and its projected layoffs of 15 to 20 non-tenured teachers.
Teachers and parents at Tuesday night’s budget hearings said the layoffs would be a severe blow to teacher morale, but officials said rising costs made the cuts were necessary.
They should do like AT&T did in the Great Depression, rather than layoff’s, they cut everyone’s salary. I’m sure the “Tenured Teachers” would support that as “It’s for the Children”, and would retain teacher morale.
confused: Hoboken BOE is a special animal. The whole thing is completely out of control. What they did was go after the MOST defenseless group of people that were least connected.
There are three problems in Hoboken: oversized and overpaid administration (no steps taken); oversized and overpaid tenured teacher force (no steps taken); accepting kids from other school districts to increase student enrollment.
They needed to cut something, and they went for the path of least restistance. Non-tenured teachers are probably one of the lowest cost items they had, and you get very little bang for the buck.
As an example: you may have a tenured elementary school teacher being paid $90,000 with a class of 12 students.
You also have one high school with possibly 1200 students total and the district has Supt, Assistants, a Principal, Assistants. even the elementary school has multiple assistants. Everyone on the take……..a fiscal disaster….
My friend is having an open house in Ho Ho Kus this weekend and unless she finds a rich Elliot Spitzer Ho to buy it she is in deep doo doo. I guess she better bring her knitting needles. Funny thing is in the spring of 2004 you needed two to three people to man the open house with all the people coming to see it at once. Now I have been to some bank REOs where the realtor sits in his car out front reading the newspaper and relaxing as he is lucky to get one or two people in a two hour open house.
STU,
I was a little long winded, but i understand the general concept of what got us to where we are now. It just seems to me that why would anyone trust the credit rating agencies ratings anymore???? they obviously have no problem with conflict of interest and will rate in the manner that provides the greatest financial return, not based on what the real value of the ratables are! I do not understand how the ratings agencies are still in business?
Now they downgrade it around 12 months too late.
Following a review. Moody’s has a Baa3 rating on Toll’s existing senior unsecured note issues and a Ba2 rating on the homebuilder’s subordinated note issues. “In the context of the further deterioration in the already weak outlook for the homebuilding industry due to substantially tighter lending standards, diminished consumer confidence, rising repossessions, and falling home prices, the review was prompted by Toll’s lower than industry average inventory reduction to date and its substantially greater than industry average exposure to the high density mid-rise and high-rise tower business,” Moody’s said in a statement. The rating agency plans to finish the review after Toll reports second-quarter results
grim (66)-
It should be put on a separate bill of sale. :)
kettle1, somehow someone was actually able to polish a turd and sell that turd as pure gold to lots of pension funds.
Next time someone hands you a sure thing ask who paid for the polish.
kettle [77],
AG laid the foundation. Subsequently, there was built a long chain of deceit, fraud, lies, wishes, delusion, etc.. The realtors sold a hopeless dream, the appraisers lied, the mortgage brokers lied, the buyers lied, Wall Street lied and finally AG lied, regarding adjustables. Lo and behold the rating agencies winked, put out their hand, and stamped the crap, AAA, in a businees[securitization] that they knew less than zero about.
Great system?
Anyone hear this morning on CNBC that Korea is turning away from buying US Treasuries…that is bad. Other countries buying our Treasuries keeps us a float..but if Mr. B backs the treasuries with bad mortages why would anyone buy them
ChiFi (85)-
Verizon and pharma are “in” on our program. They see the value of direct interface/input with teachers.
I do realize AT&T here is a shell of their old selves (and that the SBC gang has basically shut down the old ops here), but as long as they have a presence in NJ, they should play the game. If they don’t want to be here at all, they should get the hell out.
Can’t have it both ways.
#91
Kettle– not to defend the rating agencies because they obviously screwed up massively, but they were also on the receiving end of fraudulent data (e.g., all of the phony appraisals used to justify the mortgages in the first place). IMO, everyone involved in this business from top to bottom was complicit in the fraud and ineptitude
grim (66)-
I think the best wording would be in the form of some sort of personal services agreement…
Take my wife, please.
Kettle1:
It’s no different than when GS changes their ratings and targets of stocks. Do you doubt for one minute that these upgrades/downgrades are not manipulated to benefit their own clients accounts?
Hmmm. Let’s announce a downgrade on X. Then we’ll buy X. Then we’ll upgrade X. Then we’ll sell X. This is easy!
“Other countries buying our Treasuries keeps us a float.”
Actually they keep dead man walking.
Skeptic 98,
I understand your point and it is a valid one. But it seems to raise the question; when the entire system is so corrupt that there is no one person or business to blamed, is it not time to either destroy said system or remove yourself from it ASAP?
A bit of a modern cliché, but perhaps we should rename NY to New Rome, we cant be that far from the pinnacle of decadence
Stu 101,
good point, that only reinforces my comment at 103
“is it not time to either destroy said system or remove yourself from it ASAP?”
kettle,
All you can do is take the other side of the trade. The masters of the universe have laid it out on a silver platter. Go get it!
Kettle,
No one link is much worse than the others IMO. The credit agencies are merely sheep doing the work for the I bankers. They are all wanna be I bankers at the agencies anyway hoping for a job offer from a large I bank to get their pay to the next level. I interviewed at an agency in early ‘06 and it was disgusting. They played the game because they were getting paid like all the rest. Why did Arthur Anderson not give a qualified rating to Enron? Because they were getting paid millions to rubber stamp the whole mess. AA paid the ultimate price because it was singled out. Every rating angency has played this game and you can’t take all of them down since they are still a necessary cog in our financial system. Bankers were waaaaaaaaay too cozy with those responsible for giving ratings. And when you gave a lousy rating to an agency, guess what, no more business was pointed at you. Conflict of interest at the highest levels.
“we cant be that far from the pinnacle of decadence.”
All we need now are some vestal virgins and some vomitoriums.
vodka (103)-
“…we cant be that far from the pinnacle of decadence…”
I’d submit that we’re now skiing down the frozen backslope, with no poles.
Stu (107)-
You alliterative genius, you.
Just what I needed to read as I tuck into a tuna sandwich.
See Clot…reality vs. perception.
Most people would read that article and think…man, our kids must really be useless…but you know the real deal. There are some talented young people out there who would benefit from a job with ATT and bring value to the firm….but of course they can outsource the same job and pay pennies on the dollar. Stinks.
Maybe it’s time to put “Caligula” on my Netflix queue…
52 secondary
I’ve only been tracking on realtor.com, but at some point a few months from now or so I’ll start taking it seriously.
“Maybe it’s time to put “Caligula” on my Netflix queue…”
Helen Mirren in her greatest role!
89.There are three problems in Hoboken: oversized and overpaid administration (no steps taken); oversized and overpaid tenured teacher force (no steps taken); accepting kids from other school districts to increase student enrollment.
Same problem exists in most NJ school districts. The New Depression, unfortunately, is required as an excuse to get back to Reality.
“BC Bob Says:
March 27th, 2008 at 11:56 am
“Other countries buying our Treasuries keeps us a float.”
Actually they keep dead man walking.”
keep dead men floating?
110. The Globalist running this Country into the ground have outsourced everything. This battle was lost when only 10% of the voters realized Ross Perot was right. When all fails, 10% will see it coming, 90% will still be clueless.
64 john
“I love it when realtors advertise how desparate the owner is to sell on their MLS site. Does ex-wife come with house for free?”
For free? She probably didn’t even come with a heck of a lot of effort…
Essex Says:
Nobody young wants to work at the phone company. The union people no longer want to work there as they killed pensions and a job for life many years ago. Easier to be a cop/fireman/teacher, more pay, better pension and less work. The tech guys all dream of Google and Finance guys all dream of Goldman out of school. No one dreams of working for Ma Bell in the middle of dreery old NJ. My visits there it seemed to be all middle age white telecommunications workers who have been branded as phone people and are trapped there till the day they get the ax.
March 27th, 2008 at 12:04 pm
See Clot…reality vs. perception.
Most people would read that article and think…man, our kids must really be useless…but you know the real deal. There are some talented young people out there who would benefit from a job with ATT and bring value to the firm….but of course they can outsource the same job and pay pennies on the dollar. Stinks.
Who the heck eats a tuna sandwich the week after lent ends. I am on a month long tuna strike, MEAT MEAT MEAT>
eClotpoll Says:
March 27th, 2008 at 12:03 pm
Stu (107)-
You alliterative genius, you.
Just what I needed to read as I tuck into a tuna sandwich.
I think i may have just had an epiphany of just how corrupt the financial system really is. I have always assumed a certain level of corruption and greed, but i think i just absorbed/accepted the real implications of the current mess!!! :(
#103
“when the entire system is so corrupt that there is no one person or business to blamed, is it not time to either destroy said system or remove yourself from it ASAP?”
Yes– we are in a situation akin to when the Securities Act of 1933 was enacted. There is no confidence in this market. If you take the cynical view, we can expect people to be bad when there is potential to profit. This is not to excuse the bad actors, but there was a failure of government as well. Real estate is no longer a simple local issue when the effect of an appraisal in your neighborhood reverberates around the globe. The regulation of mortgages clearly needs to be taken away from the hodgepodge of state laws and moved up to the federal level just as was done with stocks in the 1930s
118…It was not too long ago that Lucent (LU) was a place on par with Google in terms of buzz and ability to create wealth….that of course imploded…but as long as there are decent incentives…people will work there…and the workforce will include all kinds of folks. Now about that ex-wife…
skeptic 121,
has not the current situation been caused by the “Cynical” version you speak of. This has not happened because of a tangle of local and federal regulation. This situation was clearly intentional.
sx (110)-
Don’t get me started. Most of the kids I deal with are plenty smart and motivated. In fact, many of them are brighter and much more organized than their parents.
It’s funny that so many companies would rather offshore work to populations that are, in essence, indentured. I guess slave labor is preferable to an educated, well-paid domestic workforce.
I’m not Lou Dobbs on this issue, and I understand that there are jobs that make perfect economic sense to outsource. But it seems to me that there’s a fear on the part of both gubmint and corporations to work toward developing a maintaining a workforce of aware, educated and decently-compensated people.
Because a large, educated, well-compensated middle class would be the biggest threat to the status quo in this country.
Giants Stadium LLC, set up by the Mara and Tisch families that own the team, sold $650 million in auction-rate securities in August 2007 to help finance a $1.7 billion facility scheduled to open in 2010. Rates on $123.8 million of those range from 11.5 percent to 22 percent after at least one monthly auction failed on March 24, according to a person who asked not to be identified because the figures aren’t made public.
Alice McGillion, a spokeswoman for the stadium project, declined to comment.
Interest on bonds sold to refinance debt related to the existing 32-year-old stadium is also soaring just two years before it may be demolished. The New Jersey Sports and Exposition Authority sold $190 million in securities in November, only to have some rates more than triple to 15 percent from 4.3 percent one week last month.
The auction-rate market “was all the rage,” said Joe Consolazio, chief financial officer of the New Jersey authority, which voted this month to explore refinancing the debt again. “Because of this liquidity crisis, everyone’s skittish.”
#123
the manipulation of stocks in the 1920s was intentional as well, but it would have been nice if we had the SEC back then which might have been able to mitigate the damage.
I am very pro market, but markets can’t function without coherent regulation and enforcement. The hodgepodge of mortgage regs at state levels and the absence of a comprehensive federal response provided the breeding ground for all of the mortgage scams of the past few years. My point is that there will always be people who try to game the system. This is why you need strong and consistent regulation to make sure that the bad actors do not completely take over the market
skep (121)-
Unfortunately, I must agree. The sheer net dollar implications of the average RE transaction also mandate this. RE, whether we like it or not, has become an investment by dint of the price involved.
Although I shudder to think what a botchery Federal oversight will be…
AHHHH, the exlusive middle class. No one on this board could even define a quantative income range for middle class or qualitative definition of the mind set that makes people deem themself middle class.
I know families barely scrapping by on 40k a year whose pride makes them boldly state they are middle class and I also know plenty of sons and daughters of blue collar families making 300k a year who are also proud to be middle class.
Because a large, educated, well-compensated middle class would be the biggest threat to the status quo in this country.
sx (122)-
Hah! Yeah, until they handed the keys to Pat Russo.
In fairness, that company was toast 10-12 years ago. What a culture of do-nothings and middle managers. It’s as though AT&T decided to spin off LU, packed with all the worst features of their own awful corporate culture.
exclusive or elusive?
#118 john: I like Goldman Sachs much better when people did not know who it was.
When I worked there, if you told somebody outside the business that you worked at Goldman Sachs, they thought it was a jewelry company.
John (128)-
So, what’s your point? That the middle class can’t be defined, so why worry about it?
How about a working definition as being a class whose economic fortunes are predicated upon work that cannot- or should not- be outsourced to a slave or a robot?
#127
“Although I shudder to think what a botchery Federal oversight will be”
the question is what is the alternative. state level beaurocrats/legislators with a dim understanding of the market, or their more competant federal brethren. kicking it up to the feds also eliminates the “race to the bottom” among states trying to attract businesses.
I think it would be great if we could form something similar devoted to regulating real estate transactions as the SEC. The people who work for the SEC are highly competant.
skep (133)-
Why not put it under the SEC? I’d go for that in a heratbeat…especially if licensing requirements were kicked up to a commensurate level of difficulty.
I will not be holding my breath until this happens, though. The RE lobby will never allow it.
#128
John– you hit the nail on the head. there is a group which is economically in the middle and a group whose culture derives from the above. both consider themselves middle class, but there is only partial overlap. to me, I think it is weird to pretend you are middle class when successive generations in your family have broken free of blue collar land. more understandable if you are the first generation to rise up
Can anyone offer the Bergen County home sales in March YOY since 2004? I want to compare it to Rich in NJs post from yesterday about inventory levels for the same time frame.
Thanks!
Real estate qualitative question.
LLL: Decent neighborhood, good schools.
Subject Property: 60’s split; 4/2, 2500 sf including basement; .25 acre.
Remodel: Basic kitchen in late 90’s; baths, ok.
Ask: $350k
Comp: 7/2007 Sld $255k; Same street & block. 50’s Ranch, corner lot; sold 7/07, 1850 sf, 3/2 no basement; same taxes, no remodel but solid. Needed kitchen.
What would you pay?
#134
SEC would be as good as anybody to do it. I wouldn’t underestimate the pressure on Congress to “do something” about this mortgage mess as this drags out. Enron and Worldcom gave us Sarb Ox and the corporate lobbyists were powerless to stop it.
Clot,
I’m getting kids from the Vo Tech. (incl Somerset)
I’m getting the “Johnny can’t read”’s, “Johnny steals”, “Johnny beats up other kids” so let’s throw him in the vo tech and let him be someone else’s problem…
The better idea, IMO, would be to NOT let these kids advance until they can do the work.
I’ve got kids coming thru THAT CANNOT WRITE THEIR NAME. How do they get a NJ HS diploma AND THEY CANNOT WRITE THEIR NAME????
The world is going high-tech and you just don’t HAVE THE PLACE for unskilled, illiterate workers, anymore.
And STOP STOP STOP using the vo-tech as a dumping ground for underperforming kids.
LASTLY-MY BIGGEST BEEF (Bif!) is PLEASE STOP hiring people that want to become teachers because they are failing in their chosen field!
WTF?!? Everyone knows you can go “hide” in the vo-tech as teacher.
I’ve got names.
Don’t get me started.
(ooops! too late! :)
Don’t they commute to the city from LI?
“Third of NY subprime foreclosures are on LI”
http://www.newsday.com/business/ny-bzfore275627313mar27,0,2973120.story
“Americans owe a staggering $1.1 trillion on home equity loans — and banks are increasingly worried they may not get some of that money back.”
“Equity Loans as Next Round in Credit Crisis”
“To get it, many lenders are taking the extraordinary step of preventing some people from selling their homes or refinancing their mortgages unless they pay off all or part of their home equity loans first. In the past, when home prices were not falling, lenders did not resort to these measures.”
http://www.nytimes.com/2008/03/27/business/27loan.html?_r=2&ref=business&oref=slogin&oref=slogin
Interesting thing is that nearly all the companies that blew up were subject to Sarbox which required under 404 that all large assets on the balance sheet be validated.
The synthetic mortgage mumbo jumbo was so hard to price and models were so hard to comprehend that the accountants had to rely on the business and their own pricing and risk management groups to determine they had effective internal controls related to the pricing and valuation of the complex mortgage related securities. Bottom line they already was supposed to do this and either missed it or were incapable of valuing such complex instruments. How would re-regulating this help anyone?
kettle1 (120) - Let me know how you absorbed/accepted this mess. I have yet, to get my mind around it. All of that ‘planning’ you mentioned has been rather prudent if this continues.
2 points here:
1- Mary J Blige overpaid… she coulda’ had this gem for 80% LESS.
2- You get a listing like this and you post 2, that’s TWO pictures, and one picture is the VIEW, so let’s just say it’s a picture of grass.
MEDIA: 2
MLS#: 2501722
LP: $2,495,000
RMS: 20
BDRM: 5
FB: 5
HB: 1
TBTH: 5.1
SQFT: 12000
12,000 SQ FT SUPERBLY BUILT & ARCHITECTURALLY NUANCED HOME ON A 22 ACRE CUL-DE-SAC LOT W/LONG-DISTANCE PANORAMIC VIEWS. FULL WALLS OF WINDOWS AND A WRAP-AROUND “RIBBON OF GLASS” BRING THE OUTSIDE IN TO THE VARIOUS LIVING PAVILLIONS. TWO-STORY FAMILY ROOM WITH A FULL WALL BUILT-IN MEDIA CENTER & BUTLERS PANTRY W/ WET BAR, 23X16 TWO-STORY MARBLE FOYER W/ FLOOR-TO-CEILING GLASS IN FRONT AND BACK, HUGE KITCHEN WITH STAINLESS STEEL GE MONOGRAM APPLIANCES & A VIKING DOUBLE CONVECTION OVEN, 2-STORY LIBRARY WITH BUILT-IN BOOKCASES, EXPANSIVE 2-STORY DINING ROOM WITH A BUILT-IN BUFFET/SERVER, HUGE 2-1/2 STORY 36X21 MUSIC ROOM/CONSERVATORY WITH EXQUISITE VIEWS, EXTRAORDINARY MASTER BEDROOM WITH SEPARATE 36 FT MENS & LADIES WINGS, POOL HOUSE W/GUEST RM, FULLY WINDOWED WALK-OUT BSMNT WITH LARGE EXERCISE ROOM, A 20-SEAT PROFESSIONAL-CALIBER SCREENING ROOM , A FOUR-STOP ELEVATOR, AN OBSERVATION DECK, & SO MUCH MORE!
TAXES: $36,167
http://weblogs.newsday.com/realestate/blog/2008/03/foreclosure_watch_central_isli.html
Even more scary there are houses for sale for under $200K in suffolk again.
I remember back in early 2002 I went to look at an original condition split in my town for under 300K, the realtor told me this is the last split I will ever see in my town for under 300K, well she was right for 5 years. We have a few $299 REOs on the market right now.
LASTLY-MY BIGGEST BEEF (Bif!) is PLEASE STOP hiring people that want to become teachers because they are failing in their chosen field!
WTF?!? Everyone knows you can go “hide” in the vo-tech as teacher.
**********************************************
Gee whiz man….failures were in abundance during the dot com bust….so the thousands of displaced workers…and hundreds that became teachers are failures in your book? what is the criteria? Trying? Absolute rubbish.
139.
I’m getting the “Johnny can’t read”’s, “Johnny steals”, “Johnny beats up other kids” so let’s throw him in the vo tech and let him be someone else’s problem…
The better idea, IMO, would be to NOT let these kids advance until they can do the work.
++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++
Or better yet not electing them President of the United States….and CEOs of major corporations…..
spam (139)-
There’s a contingent of problem/developmentally-challenged kids in Vo-tech, but hey…it’s a problem in mainstream HS, too. I know that in Somerset, Vo-Tech began to refuse to be the dumping ground for these troubled kids several years ago. However, there are still some that get through. We have a pretty active anti-gang program going at Somerset VT, so I know we have a long way to go.
One plus: the gangbangers immediately agreed to make Vo-Tech a “neutral” site. That’s a good thing…since pretty much everybody has access to something in a classroom that can be used as a weapon.
Despite the fact that the year 2008 is only 40 years away - as far ahead as 1928 is in the past….
http://blog.modernmechanix.com/2008/03/24/what-will-life-be-like-in-the-year-2008/
BC (141)-
Lender refusal to subordinate. Another weird phenomenon spawned by this mess.
Lenders holding seconds/HELs are big-time nervous these days. They should be. If that borrower gets blown out, these lenders will get nothing.
I am congratulating Mary J. Blige for a job well done on making headlines on Grim’s latest Lowball Edition.
Jim Grant lashes out on Bernanke in this video (hope link works):
http://www.grantspub.com/video/
#142
John– I agree that there is already sufficient regulation at the issuer level. The problem is that their models can’t be reliable when the inputs are garbage. There needs to be better regulation on the ground for appraisers and mortgage brokers.
Bloomberg: Presidential Candidate Barrack Obama stated that he will appoint Surge Knight as the Head of his planned Mortgage Supervisory Authority. He is confident that Mr. Knight will have no problems settling any financial issues that arose as part of the mortgage meltdown.
When questioned to his choice of Mr. Knight he replied that he is an avid reader of the NJREReport and he decided it was about time that he started “keeping it real”
Class is defined by the town you live in, what cellphone and MP3 player you have, and the car you drive. If you make 30k a year and lease a BMW, have the latest I-Phone and wear Armani suits, then you are one classy person.
What are you if you make 6 figures, wear no-name suits, take the free cell phone, drive a 13 year old Civic hatchback and still use a walkman?
Subject to AMT?
Stu (156) - That would be the prudent class.
Class is tough to define….but if we look at net worth….it is one thing here and another in a small town in Illinois. We have covered that. I think the idea of opportunities being driven out of the country solely for the means of saving money may come back to bite the big corporations when no one can afford their services….but then there is always India.
[9] Grim,
It occurs to me that the moratorium and foreclosure fee helps those who are already underwater. Any owner with equity gets screwed by that bill. This is because the interest will continue to run during the moratorium. Further, the fee comes out of the costs of foreclosure, which I am sure is a cost the lender can pass to the seller under the mortgage agreement. So, if the house isn’t underwater, the lender says “okay, we can wait. It’ll just cost you more.”
Oh, and lenders will adjust their pricing accordingly for future loans.
Same for HOEPA loans (if you can get them after the fed gets done with Reg Z). They will be ridiculous in terms of cost. And if the gov caps rates, the banks will simply insist on greater LTV or get out of the business.
Further, they will be willing to take the CRA hit: CRA really only matters when you need a regulatory approval, and what banks are merging nowadays?
So these well-intentioned efforts to keep people in their homes (a) won’t succeed and (b) drives up the cost of future lending to LMI borrowers.
Oh, and lenders will adjust their pricing accordingly for future loans.
Unfortunately, Rice and Watson will never factor this into their analysis.
Or worse, they do. Like you say, this is nothing more than an attempt to socialize the cost of the bailout.
124 clot
you’ll get me revved as well (despite that I hate Lou Dobbs) - “outsourcing” and “free trade” may “make the pie higher” from a global perspective, but it makes it more difficult for Americans to “put food on their family” from the local perspective. It’s a simple math problem: elimination of international barriers to corporate operations will necessarily result in an equalization of international pay, given sufficient time. This is a good thing for middle class workers in nations with historically low pay, and a Very Bad Thing for middle class workers in nations with historically higher pay.
People instinctively understand this, I think, and the result is that they don’t give a d*mn if Big Telco’s profits rise if it’s at their expense - why should they make that sacrifice in order to benefit Big Telco and a bunch of folk who live somewhere overseas?
One thing’s for certain; as far as Trickle Down Economics goes, you can’t say that increased corporate profits will be beneficial for middle class wages if increased corporate profits are the result of decreased middle class wages.
If me and my 9 buddies making $400K apiece are sitting in Cheers chugging Miller Lite, you can’t say we’d be better off if one of us made $1B and the other 9 made $10K - not unless the $1B guy is sharing (and, for the record, he never is). This remains true even if the guys in Gary’s Old Towne Tavern who used to make $500 now make $10K. Yay for them.
BTW, I found out that the spouse’s relo policy is not nearly as advantageous as I was led to believe (which makes sense, actually–what spouse described sounded too good to be true).
So, I am one foot out of the property buying hunt in New Jersey. Now we can look for a rental house in a nice town with good schools and not worry when NJ implodes.
159 Nom
Yeah.
156 Stu
Yes.
This has been another edition of Simple Answers to Simple Questions.
Grim,
LOL. Got that right. They will just order DOBI to go after the federally chartered lenders again, just as Ann Milgram did so disastrously this past year. Laughed my aZZ off when I saw that–will have to needle her about that the next time I see her.
If I had taken Stu Rabner up on his offer, that would not have happened. Or at least, she would have known that a beatdown was forthcoming.
156 stu
Maybe not. AMT applies only when you have taken a lot of deductions, and your effective tax rate is below the AMT threshold. So, if you are in the top rate, and have no deductions, AMT doesn’t matter since you can’t be taxed any higher than you are.
126 skeptic
well put - completely agreed.
#154 John
Sometimes I thought xenophobe, but this is a simple confirmation of bigot.
It’s not just getting the work done more cheaply, but it’s the lack of education along with the lack of good work habits that is fueling the outsourcing phenomenon. I know this personally as I’ve done the same primarily because of a shortage of well educated individuals with a desire to actually work. Everyone wants to get paid, but not many want to work.
This is the cumulative effect of a long line of failed liberal policies that have ruined this country and have literally forced business to outsource to India. The liberal stance is always to attempt to baby people by giving them a damn diaper change and a powder when they should be made to work by market forces. In other words, if you don’t work, you don’t eat. A little bit of hunger will change some attitudes.
Basically, it “hunger” or scarcity that fuels all the immigration to this country and the hard work the Indians do with outsourced work. Since we have the illusion of plenty here, there’s no incentive to actually work. Liberalism has supported the attitude that one can get something for nothing. Get rid of liberalism and we get rid of these sorts of problems.
spam spam bacon spam Says:
March 27th, 2008 at 1:11 pm
Clot,
I’m getting kids from the Vo Tech. (incl Somerset)
I’m getting the “Johnny can’t read”’s, “Johnny steals”, “Johnny beats up other kids” so let’s throw him in the vo tech and let him be someone else’s problem…
The better idea, IMO, would be to NOT let these kids advance until they can do the work.
I’ve got kids coming thru THAT CANNOT WRITE THEIR NAME. How do they get a NJ HS diploma AND THEY CANNOT WRITE THEIR NAME????
The world is going high-tech and you just don’t HAVE THE PLACE for unskilled, illiterate workers, anymore.
Thanks NOM.
Perhaps I should amend my tax forms so I can weasel out of AMT by taking less deductions ;)
168 Nom
“So, if you are in the top rate, and have no deductions, AMT doesn’t matter since you can’t be taxed any higher than you are.”
This is a situation that doesn’t occur, since at a minimum you will have deductions for state and local taxes, which will get taken away by AMT.
So as to Stu, I still say
Yes.
If the American people ever allow private banks to control the issue of their currency, first by inflation, then by deflation, (i.e., the “business cycle”) the banks and corporations that will grow up around them will deprive the people of all property until their children wake-up homeless on the continent their fathers conquered. -
Thomas Jefferson, President of the United States 1801-1809
171 reinvestor
You are in charge of hiring people for something?!?!? What, pray tell??
You need the middle class to keep the upper and lower classes from smashing into each other.
If I were a xenophobe I would hate Mccain since he was not born in one of the 50 states. Actually I do hate him cause he ditched his sick wife. If I was a bigot I would not joke as I would hiding the fact I was a bigot. A white comedian can do black face if he is considered not a bigot but a white comedian considered a bigot can’t do black face. The fact you can’t joke about peoples ethnic background makes you a bigot, kinda like the fact that people in AA can’t drink makes them drunks. It is very complicated. Something only a vulcan could understand. Kinda like that half black half white face star trek eposide.
PGC Says:
March 27th, 2008 at 2:14 pm
#154 John
Sometimes I thought xenophobe, but this is a simple confirmation of bigot.
Party is over in Newport beach, Heloc’s are cut to 10k by Citibank and this person is complaining.
Read the comments after the article, quite entertaining.
http://www.queercents.com/2008/03/26/citibank-freezes-home-equity-lines-of-credit-helocs/
#171 socalledreinvestor: I guess all those idiots at Bear Stearns that destroyed their own firm, and ruined all of theri employees are all Liberals.
njpatient (175):
“171 reinvestor
You are in charge of hiring people for something?!?!? What, pray tell??”
Since no one would dare listen to his maniacal ravings over here, he has moved offshore to find some people who might.
Question: Is it morally wrong to walk away from a mortgage and give the house back to the bank? Is a mortgage really an obligation to pay, or something you can just walk away from if it becomes economically efficient to do so? Businesses breach and terminate contracts all the time when it is economically beneficial to do so. Why is a house different? Has there really been a permanent shift from our grandparents ways of thinking?
BC Bob
Great quote
Here’s a little more flesh around it:
“I believe that banking institutions are more dangerous to our liberties than standing armies. If the American people ever allow private banks to control the issue of their currency, first by inflation, then by deflation, the banks and corporations that will grow up around [the banks] will deprive the people of all property until their children wake-up homeless on the continent their fathers conquered. The issuing power should be taken from the banks and restored to the people, to whom it properly belongs”
I dont think REInvestor is the same REInvestor from the blogspot days…I think this one is simply someone who wants to sound like a right wing nut job to get a good laugh.
“Question: Is it morally wrong to walk away from a mortgage and give the house back to the bank?”
No.
Party is over in Newport beach, Heloc’s are cut to 10k by Citibank and this person is complaining.
Since when is credit a right?
183 tbw
For awhile I thought the same. I didn’t think it was possible to be quite that level of stupid combined with mendacious. Now, I’ve decided that it _is_ possible.
10k HELOCs? That wont buy me granite countertops and nickel plated faucts
# grim Says:
March 27th, 2008 at 2:26 pm
Since when is credit a right?
=================================
Isn’t credit approval incidental to “the pursuit of happiness,” an inalienable right?
179 3b
recoward101 wouldn’t know - he doesn’t have any meaningful contact with any of the relevant people.
He’s is a suffocating peon lashing out at a cruel and unfair world.
118 dawg
Spelling errors: That’s “the purfuit of happinefs”.
Question: Is it morally wrong to walk away from a mortgage
Was it morally wrong for a Realtor to profit from selling you a house that was overpriced, or more than you can afford?
Was it morally wrong for the mortgage broker to profit from putting you in a loan that they knew you couldn’t afford?
Was it morally wrong for the investment banks to profit from pooling and securitizing loans into vehicles they knew were going to fail?
Was it morally wrong for the ratings agencies to profit from providing ratings to the above mentioned securities far beyond what they should have been rated?
Nobody else seemed to ask the morality question through this entire process, why should the borrower?
I think we should give Grim some credit for stating that credit is not a right.
Unless of course, you can discredit his thought.
Grim, are those rhetorical questions?
# grim Says:
March 27th, 2008 at 2:31 pm
Question: Is it morally wrong to walk away from a mortgage
Nobody else seemed to ask the morality question through this entire process, why should the borrower?
================================
I just find it interesting that there are still individuals who cling to the belief that there is a moral obligation to pay one’s debts.
“To be sane in a world of madmen is in itself an act of insanity.”
#187tbw: Granite is out, FORMICA RULES!!! Looks great, easy to clean, and when it gets a little dated or worn out, easy and cheap to replace.
You get a whole new looking kitchen, at a fraction of the cost of granite.
I just find it interesting that there are still individuals who cling to the belief that there is a moral obligation to pay one’s debts.
In other news, the Mortgage Brokers Association makes
a bribe of$500m in donations to various churches locatedin high loan loss areasacross the nation.“The liberal stance is always to attempt to baby people by giving them a damn diaper change and a powder when they should be made to work by market forces. In other words, if you don’t work, you don’t eat. A little bit of hunger will change some attitudes.”
50.5,
Apply the same thought process to your previous rants regarding a RE bailout and praising Bergabe for prostituting our currency. All for some ill advised attempt to save the same masses/speculators, along with the financial engineers.
In other words if you can’t pay, take a damn walk. Stop the charade and blow out the dead wood. Trash Lifeline, Hope Now, TAF’s, etc… Let market forces prevail. Stop baking/selling s*it crumbs, trying to shove it down John Q’s throat as a new version of chocolate chips. It’s time all the deadbeats acquire a new set of diapers. Hopefully not on a hel or cc.
197 BC
Stop applying logical consistency - you’ll have lost him be the end of your first sentence.
Recoward101 comes from the “School of Hard Knocks For Thee But Not For Me”.
njpatient
W/o knowing stu’s tax profile, we are both right.
Stu might not have enough deducts after the phaseout to push him into AMT. And AMT won’t recapture everything. Stu should still take deductions, they just won’t be worth nearly as much.
(and yes, I am a tax lawyer)
#189 njpatient; Not to get into political arguements ( I try to avoid those). Just for the record, I do not consider myself either left or right, but rather pragamtic/commonsense, and fair.
And there are enough crybabies on both sides of the divide (left/right).
The problem I have seen with the supporters of the rabid right such as so called reinvestor, is the incredible level of hypocricy.
BC Bob Says:
March 27th, 2008 at 2:42 pm
=============================
Metaphor…overload…error…can’t…compute… *circuits crash, becomes lifeless*
#177 John
When you put that stereotype together with your older comments (the one on Jews was a memorable one) you paint the picture.
You can hide behind the veneer of comedy, but there is still MDF at the core.
A bigot is a bigot regardless of their race, color, creed or social acceptance.
Sweet mother of downgrades, $1.1 billion, from one firm, in a single shot. Nice job on those originations, Aegis. It isn’t any wonder why you went bankrupt.
Fitch Affirms $61.7MM & Downgrades $1.1B from 3 Aegis Subprime Transactions
199 Nom
“(and yes, I am a tax lawyer)”
Ah. So am I, in part, but probably different sections of the Code. I spend most of the Code portions of my time with 280G, 409A and 162(m).
Y’all tax lawyers are weak sauce, yo. Corporate law’s where it’s izat.
3b: I cant stand granite…much rather have either butcher block or formica.
I guess you could say credit is something of a right since there are anti-redlining laws.
Inconceivable!
Merrill may write down billions more: analysts
Merrill Lynch & Co. may record $4.5 billion to $6 billion in write-downs from exposure to mortgage-related securities and troubled bond insurers during the first quarter, analysts said Thursday.
Bernstein Research analyst Brad Hintz expects the brokerage firm to take a $4.5 billion write-down, but noted that there’s downside risk to this estimate. He forecast first-quarter earnings of $1.30 a share, down from a previous forecast of $1.60 a share.
Meredith Whitney, an analyst at Oppenheimer & Co., reckons that Merrill will announce $6 billion in write-downs. Her previous estimate was $2 billion. She is now predicting a first-quarter loss of $3 a share vs. a prior estimate of a 45 cents a share profit.
“Corporate law’s where it’s izat.”
I’m that, too.
Nom/njpatient:
I am not a tax lawyer, but I play one at home every March ;)
Seriously though, I do still take deductions, they just aren’t worth nearly as much as they used to be.
And now, I must pay estimated quarterly taxes, even though I received a refund this year.
I looked it up and yes, due to my rental income, and few deductions against it, I am subject to paying quarterly taxes. No big deal though, but it was just a bit surprising.
Our tax laws are insane. I’m sure you are both happy for it!
“Meredith Whitney, an analyst at Oppenheimer & Co., reckons that Merrill will announce $6 billion in write-downs.”
What a maroon!! Doesn’t she know that CAN’T be true?!? bi and S&P said there would be no more writedowns!
skep,
Equality is a fundamental right.
Credit, however, is still a privilege.
# njpatient Says:
March 27th, 2008 at 3:04 pm
“Corporate law’s where it’s izat.”
I’m that, too.
=======================
Much respect for executive comp attorneys, yo. I put the “gross” in gross ups.
“What a maroon!! Doesn’t she know that CAN’T be true?!? bi and S&P said there would be no more writedowns!”
I knew the market had been too quiet over the past few days. So do you all think Lehman will survive the insolvency rumors or will they go the way of Bear? Who will buy Lehman on Sunday night? Oh that’s right, the liberal taxpayers. Who will benefit? The conservative Lehman account and shareholders.
it’s all about the gross-ups.
This is interesting from Yahoo Finance Market Update:
3:05 pm : Action has been choppy following the results of the Fed’s new auction. The stock market climbed to the unchanged mark, but is now going back on the retreat.
The Fed will be lending $75 billion for 28 days due to the completion of itsfirst Term Securities Lending Facility auction. The bid-to-cover ration came in at 1.15–which is the amount of bids divided by what was lent out. The stop-out rate–which the lowest rate the Fed accepted–was 0.33%.
The TSLF auction results were akin to a seller listing a house for $300K in a weak housing market only to see multiple bids come in at $200K. It can be said that demand for the asset is technically high, but only at a discounted price, implying the buyers don’t really need to buy the asset but they will if they get it at an extremely discounted rate. The Bid-to-cover at 1.15 (there’s the demand) but stop-out rate at 0.33% (there’s the recognition it isn’t really needed).
214 Stu
Nice weather we’re having.
LEH? More interesting to watch things unfold at FGIC and XL Capital (SCA).
Re: A bigot is a bigot regardless of their race, color, creed or social acceptance.
That I disagree with. In yesterdays Wall street journal there was a long article about shootings during funerals at africian american funerals. The funeral director said it was so bad the shootings at one funeral they had to call the “Paddy Wagon” Wow what a bigoted insult towards the Irish that the WSJ printed without batting an eye. She is alowed to get away with it because of her color.
CIT too
So the banks are lowballing the FED!!!!
Ha ha ha.
d-dawg, are you in mid or downtown?
Things are looking good over here njpatient. Still playing the don’t pass?
I still have that woman’s business card who worked at CIT as of last week (I shared the emergency row with her on a trip out to MSP). Maybe in a month or so, I’ll call her to see if she is still there.
# njpatient Says:
March 27th, 2008 at 3:12 pm
d-dawg, are you in mid or downtown?
============================
Are you a partner or an associate?
223
Yep.
225 dawg
point taken.
New Jersey Nets playing the Miami Heat on Oct. 9 in Paris and Oct. 12 in London
Gerri Willis, whoever that is, on CNN right now:
“Now is a good time to buy. Mortgage rates are low, low, low. If you find the right place, I would buy.”
She’s a blonde, easy on the eyes, but clearly doesn’t read this board.
“Lenders are starting to get with the program and lend money.”
#206 tbw; Do not care for the butcher block look, and it stains, but you and I do agree on formica
New Jersey Nets playing the Miami Heat on Oct. 9 in Paris and Oct. 12 in London.
Perhaps someone might actually attend these games vs. their games played back home?
njpatient Says:
March 27th, 2008 at 2:56 pm
199 Nom
“(and yes, I am a tax lawyer)”
Ah. So am I, in part, but probably different sections of the Code. I spend most of the Code portions of my time with 280G, 409A and 162(m).
________________________________________________
Oh dear God–not a benefits/exec comp lawyer!? **shuddering at mention of 409A**
I’m going to start asking for a cut of billing.
John might be a lawyer too. I often here him complaining about Section 8.
232 BY
LOL - purely M&A.
Haworth
SLD 501 HAWORTH AVE $789,000 6/6/2005
ACT 501 HAWORTH AVE $829,900 1/30/2008
PCH 501 HAWORTH AVE $799,000 3/27/2008
tick, tick, tick…
229 blood
“Now is a good time to buy. Mortgage rates are low, low, low. If you find the right place, I would buy.”
And yet somehow the anchors on these g*dforsaken shows always miss the opportunity to say “so, are you actually buying, or are you just saying that?”
Sean #178 -
From your link:
“I actually wanted to put more down, but our mortgage broker suggested otherwise. Her advice was that we could be doing smarter things with this money… as in buying additional assets (cash positive rental properties, etc.) or other long term investments.
Immediately after we bought the house, our mortgage broker had us refinance and get a line of credit from Citibank for $168,000. We have never used it.”
I LOVE this womans broker. Instead of commission from one house sale, she finagled two house purchase commissions and one from the refinancing. And she has convinced the morons that she is qualified to provide independant financial advice. What a shark.
#219 John
Nice straw man arguement. The WSJ can print it because it is a direct quote. They do not endorse or condone the remark. The first amendment covers the funeral directors right to say it, but still does not excuse the fact it is a racial stereotype. Same applies to you.
NJpatient
I have to go to my next door partner for the exec comp stuff. I live in the plans/exempts/muni world. Mostly plans. Used to do regulatory work on bank deals when I was elsewhere (back in the “badden” old days, before my LLM). Hence the banking stuff.
Yo C dawg, anyone can be corp if they can read and mark up a doc. You get to bill for sleeping at the printers.
We have a first admendent right to be a bigot? How patriotic of you. Speaking of bigots the IRS unfairly targets high income people.
Jason (138),
You’ll have to wait about a week for March ‘08 numbers
Year Sold U/C
1995 483 806
1996 509 989
1997 535 938
1998 610 1083
1999 661 1093
2000 659 982
2001 593 848
2002 694 942
2003 589 832
2004 707 1114
2005 702 1133
2006 644 1025
2007 658 974
#237 njpatient: It is all part of the game. ANy of these so called business shows are rah-rah cheerleaders, nothing more.
Notice they rarely have any commentators whoa re Bears, and if they do, its 1 Bear to at leat 2 or more Bulls.
They preach everything is fine, even when that is not the case. They grudginly admit there might be a problem, but of course look on the bright side, we will get through this.
This is the way it has to be. Advertiser pay money to advertise on these shows. Take a cruise, buy this, open an account and the list goes on, just keep spending.
If people who watch the shows stop spending, no more advertising, canceled shows.
And does it not just make you feel warm and fuzzy when Kudlow claims how much he loves this country.
And of course his free market capitalism ( yeah right) is the best path to prosperity spiel just makes me want to stand up and sing God Bless America; and maybe invade another country.
“Speaking of bigots the IRS unfairly targets high income people.”
Yeah, cause so much of your hard earned money keeps tricklin’ down. Down into your tax loopholes and offshore accounts.
#242 Rich:
You’ll have to wait about a week for March ‘08 numbers.
Any color/thoughts at this point on March numbers?
Considering that February had an extra day this year, was warmer than normal, I would predict another number showing the rate of sales as continuing to deteriorate at an increasing rate.
The end is near.
My connection to quality Mets tickets is leaving her job at Shea tomorrow.
Say it ain’t so!!!!!
3b (245),
Yes. Cliff fall comes to mind.
Right now, sales DOWN around 52% Y-O-Y!!!!
Under Contract DOWN about 45% Y-O-Y!!!
Sales might come in down around 42-48% and Under Contract (Pending) down around
40-45%.
And I think I’m being generous.
[148]
Spam said: LASTLY-MY BIGGEST BEEF (Bif!) is PLEASE STOP hiring people that want to become teachers because they are failing in their chosen field!
WTF?!? Everyone knows you can go “hide” in the vo-tech as teacher.
**********************************************
Essex said: Gee whiz man….failures were in abundance during the dot com bust….so the thousands of displaced workers…and hundreds that became teachers are failures in your book? what is the criteria? Trying? Absolute rubbish.
*********************************************
Spam says:
My bad. I should’ve explained myself better:
The teachers I’m thinking of have worked in a technical field (hence “vo-tech”) and have fallen behind in their understanding of the latest technology. As more and more work goes “high tech” in their workplace, (compared to what they can do), they are usually pushed aside or can’t make enough to feed themselves on commission, so they show up on the doostep of the vo-tech applying for a teacher’s position.
Here’s a REAL WORLD EXAMPLE:
In a local vo-tech school, the evening school teacher for diesel technology teaches what he knows: points and condensor technology (last used about 1973/1974) and he has never worked on a diesel truck as a professional mechanic. In his previous life, he rebuilt starters and alternators for a living. He shows up late, arriving from the bar. Has asked kids to meet him at the bar.
The diesel daytime teacher (was) a car mechanic. Never worked on diesels. Never ASE certified, AFAIK. He got the job from knowing the previous teacher, who was not the “star” where HE had worked… he had fumbled for years as a mechanic, muddling through, until he got to where there was little he could do at a repair shop besides push a broom and run for parts.
So I ask… Is our children learning?
Obama might double cap gain tax with CNBC, so better to buy a home, which is tax examplt up to $500K
http://www.politico.com/blogs/bensmith/0308/Obama_talks_capgains_rate_with_CNBC.html
Rich In NNJ [248],
I bet all that pant up demand from all these savy buyers is just ready to explode. I’ve been told by a realtor that the smart buyers are just waiting for the market to stabilize before jumping in.
#247 Relax, Stu. Bottom of the ninth. Mets 9, Braves 4
Most Americans Oppose Federal Bailout for Homeowners
http://rasmussenreports.com/public_content/business/general_business/most_americans_oppose_federal_bailout_for_homeowners
#248 Rich: WOW!!! Absoultely ugly,ugly numbers. Thanks as always for the update.
#251 gary: the smart buyers are just waiting for the market to stabilize before jumping in.
Yes waiting for the prices to stabailize DOWN, more, before jumping in.
#253
Any logic would tell a person this.
But, many americans feel entitled.
This is what its come to.
How about Rice and Coleman the NJ Reps.
They want to stop all foreclosuers for 6 months and loan the people 5k. Are we crazy,answer yes we are.
Yes I am in charge of hiring people for something. I own a business and the biggest headache has been finding good people. Don’t worry about what type of business…it’s not important so much as the issue of people not having the skills and desire to work.
njpatient Says:
March 27th, 2008 at 2:16 pm
171 reinvestor
You are in charge of hiring people for something?!?!? What, pray tell??
247 Stu
A true disaster!!!!
reinvestor
“I own a business and the biggest headache has been finding good people.”
In other words, you flip houses and you can’t find enough Mexicans to do your work for you now that you can’t HELOC one of your flips to pay them?
“It is all part of the game. ANy of these so called business shows are rah-rah cheerleaders, nothing more.”
3b,
They cheer from where they sit. Hopefully, the public, for the rubes sake, buy their nonsense.
How have the public fared? Well they bought, hookline and sinker, worthless dot com stocks with no earnings. Subsequently, they bought, hookline and sinker,
Cayne took loss too.
http://www.reuters.com/article/marketsNews/idUKN2739757020080327?rpc=44
News, just now:
Jimmy Cayne dumped his whole BSC position (about 5 mil shares) the day after JPM upped their bid. Got about 55 mil out of what was once 1 bil.
Talk about a rat fleeing a sinking ship.
#260 BC bob: Subsequently, they bought, hookline and sinker,and can blame themselves.
Oops, didn’t finish.
3b,
They cheer from where they sit. Hopefully, the public, for the rubes sake, buy their nonsense.
How have the public fared? Well they bought, hookline and sinker, worthless dot com stocks with no earnings. Subsequently, they bought, hookline and sinker, the dream of retiring rich by bidding up properties, 10,20,30,40% over their true value. If the public continues to listen to their trash, they will eventually buy, hookline and sinker, a spot on the bread line.
BTW, has anyone seen the number of FSBO signs go up in your neighborhood?
Also, are people asking about where to find skilled folks with a desire to work? I’m one. MBA in Finance, moved into the area. We’re definitely around and available.
261#, if yahoo finance number is right, cayne sold all his shares.
Reported on 21-dec-2007, cayne hold 5.6m shares of bsc
http://finance.yahoo.com/q/mh?s=BSC
257…nonsense. It always matter what type of business. You would be amazed at how many piss ant operations claim they are the BEST PLACES TO WORK in NJ, yet they are far from it…management…career path…type of work…hours….conditions…objective…Everything counts in large amounts.
#257 so called reinvestor/bailout cndidate: it’s not important so much as the issue of people not having the skills and desire to work.
So you are complaining about finding people with the skills and desire to work, and yet at the same time you are crying to be bailed out form your mistakes.
If you had the skils, and the desire, and dare I say the sense, you could have avoided your problems.
That’s entirely different. There’s too much riding on real estate and related investment. There’s absolutely nothing riding on deadbeats fostered by liberalism.
Apply the same thought process to your previous rants regarding a RE bailout and praising Bergabe for prostituting our currency. All for some ill advised attempt to save the same masses/speculators, along with the financial engineers.
In other words if you can’t pay, take a damn walk. Stop the charade and blow out the dead wood. Trash Lifeline, Hope Now, TAF’s, etc… Let market forces prevail. Stop baking/selling s*it crumbs, trying to shove it down John Q’s throat as a new version of chocolate chips. It’s time all the deadbeats acquire a new set of diapers. Hopefully not on a hel or cc.
God, these candiates are idiots. They all suck, in their own special ways.
Capital gains is not a tax on the rich. The rich can afford it. It’s a tax on people who are TRYING to get rich.
AAAARGHHH!!!!
Tard (269)-
I’d give any amount of money to place five of your comments here (any five will do) in the hands of your employer.
242&248
Thanks Rich. Cant wait to see exactly how bad the numbers are going to be next week!
#269 socalledreinvestor: Either it is a free market or it is not, simple as that.
No baliouts for you or any other person who screwed up.
Your mistake, you pay for it.
Typical rabid right wing puffed up Capitalist on the way up, crybaby Socialist on the way down.
Essex Says:
Please. I don’t know about you, but if I have to feed my family with the backdrop of high unemployment, I’d take a “piss ant” job if I had to. Everybody wants to be coddled before actually doing work. That’s bullshlt.
March 27th, 2008 at 4:34 pm
257…nonsense. It always matter what type of business. You would be amazed at how many piss ant operations claim they are the BEST PLACES TO WORK in NJ, yet they are far from it…management…career path…type of work…hours….conditions…objective…Everything counts in large amounts.
#264 BC Bob: So true!!
Got about 55 mil out of what was once 1 bil.
Does that even pay for his new place?
Feel free to do so. My employer is me and I approve all of my comments
Clotpoll Says:
March 27th, 2008 at 4:38 pm
Tard (269)-
I’d give any amount of money to place five of your comments here (any five will do) in the hands of your employer.
273….amazing how many dead-ends there are for the workforce…not your fault…just a fact. Part of the bigger problem.
“I own a business and the biggest headache has been finding good people.”
50.5,
If/when you go public, please provide the ticker symbol. Always looking for new shorts.
grim (275)- 27.5 million for the new place in the Plaza. Not even breathing heavy.
Bartiromo interview with Obama is disturbing. Guy is talking about potentially raising cap gains tax to 28%, top marginal tax rate to 39%, indexing minimum wage to inflation, putting up protectionist trade barriers and bailing out deadbeat homeowners. does he actually want people to invest in this country?
I’m not convinced that dead ends for the workforce are a bigger problem than the deadbeats in it. Try running a small business and hire people. Hell, you can’t even get them to fog up a damn mirror let alone have the skills and inclination to work.
It’s one of the biggest threats this country faces.
Essex Says:
March 27th, 2008 at 4:44 pm
273….amazing how many dead-ends there are for the workforce…not your fault…just a fact. Part of the bigger problem.
If/when you go public, please provide the ticker symbol. Always looking for new shorts.
Cute Bob, real cute.
Let me tell you something, if you’re looking for new shorts, go to Walmart.
He’s a liberal. What the hell do you expect?
Bartiromo interview with Obama is disturbing. Guy is talking about potentially raising cap gains tax to 28%, top marginal tax rate to 39%, indexing minimum wage to inflation, putting up protectionist trade barriers and bailing out deadbeat homeowners. does he actually want people to invest in this country?
3281 skeptic: Well not to get into the political thing again. But here goes. Clinton, Obama, McCain, that is it, that is all the choice we have? This is the choice we the American people have?
Well than I guess we get what we deserve.
The only one who showed some promise IMO was Romney, but he had to to go apparently because he was a Mormon.
So there I do not favor any of the 3 running for President.
I admired much about Teddy Roosevelt, too bad he is long dead..
#253: Funny how they aren’t anywhere nearly as outraged about how the Administration found over $200 billion to bail out Bear Stearns virtually overnight.
#284 recrybaby: So we shopuld vote for the McCain boyo, who says economics is not really his thing, but he bought Greenspan’a new book?
Oh yeah great choice, and we get to stay 100 years in Iraq too!!
#282 rebailout: It’s one of the biggest threats this country faces.
No the biggest threat is from ignorant, uninformed and uninvolved individuals like your self looking for bailouts.
recoward101
“That’s entirely different. There’s too much riding on real estate and related investment.”
It’s different because it involves YOU. You have too much riding on real estate.
You’re about to go bankrupt, so you’ve got your grubby, lazy hand stretched out, begging for some pinko socialist welfare from the government so that you don’t have to do any actual work.
rec*ward101
“That’s entirely different. There’s too much riding on real estate and related investment.”
It’s different because it involves YOU. You have too much riding on real estate.
You’re about to go bankrupt, so you’ve got your grubby, lazy hand stretched out, begging for some p*nko s*cialist welfare from the government so that you don’t have to do any actual work.
re50.5
Still asking for handouts, aren’t you.
njpatient Says: Your comment is awaiting moderation.
March 27th, 2008 at 5:03 pm
rec*ward101
“That’s entirely different. There’s too much riding on real estate and related investment.”
It’s different because it involves YOU. You have too much riding on real estate.
You’re about to go bankrupt, so you’ve got your grubby, l@zy hand stretched out, desperate for some p*nko s*cialist welf@re from the gov’t so that you don’t have to do any actual work.
“Clinton, Obama, McCain, that is it, that is all the choice we have?”
3b,
I normally fade the politics talk. However, since these 3 are the best that this country can offer, I have already cast my vote. It’s in the vault.
Jill Says:
March 27th, 2008 at 4:59 pm
#253: Funny how they aren’t anywhere nearly as outraged about how the Administration found over $200 billion to bail out Bear Stearns virtually overnight.
Jill: it is only $30B..and it is a subsidized loan that needs to be repaid..
287 3b
Another way of looking at it is that the biggest threat to the country is the idi*tic decisions made by “investors” like recoward101 in the first place.
One of the reasons I despise recoward101 so much is that he should be here apologizing for doing so much damage to my country, rather than asking my country to give him free money as a reward for his stupidity.
286 3B
You think that’s bad? Google Kevin A. Hassett.
skep-tic Says:
March 27th, 2008 at 4:50 pm
Bartiromo interview with Obama is disturbing. Guy is talking about potentially raising cap gains tax to 28%, top marginal tax rate to 39%, indexing minimum wage to inflation, putting up protectionist trade barriers and bailing out deadbeat homeowners. does he actually want people to invest in this country?
skep-tic: just for context, please recognize that the current tax rate structure is at one of its most beneficial point in this country’s history. Anyone in the tax-and-spend camp is going to find such a condition as a free handout to the rich, just as a conservative looks at government handouts as a free handout to the poor.
OK, so we are coming off the biggest asset bubble in the history of the world just as the most populous generation in history is about to quit working and get old and sick.
We already as a nation are completely unable to pay for the government programs we have. We are deeply in debt at every level of society. Our currency is tanking. We have high inflation. So what is the logical solution?
You guessed it– tax more. Reward people who took on irresponsible amounts of debt. Punish savers. Spend more on social programs.
Clot (113)
Don’t bother with Caligula - it’s over two hours of my life that I’ll never get back.
#295 njpatient; Agreed.
299 jmac
There are a couple of scenes that you must have missed….
I’m going to be happy today, So no, I’m not going to let 3b and Inpatient goad me into getting angry. You won’t take my joy.
#302 good I am happy today, and every day, and I do not need bailouts to make me happy.
Mike NJ Says:
March 27th, 2008 at 12:01 pm
Kettle, No one link is much worse than the others IMO. The credit agencies are merely sheep doing the work for the I bankers. They are all wanna be I bankers at the agencies anyway hoping for a job offer from a large I bank to get their pay to the next level. I interviewed at an agency in early ‘06 and it was disgusting. They played the game because they were getting paid like all the rest.[edit] Every rating angency has played this game and you can’t take all of them down since they are still a necessary cog in our financial system. Bankers were waaaaaaaaay too cozy with those responsible for giving ratings. And when you gave a lousy rating to an agency, guess what, no more business was pointed at you. Conflict of interest at the highest levels.
Mike NJ & ket: Honestly, the agencies are an easy target. Most of the complicit people are out of a job and a permanently toxic, so they can resume their careers in academia or other math/engineering laden industry. This business was a small fraction of the overall rating agency pipeline. Bear in mind, they didn’t get paid as the bankers did, so ultimately, they were su$kered just like everyone else.
As usual, the bankers get paid a bundle, get paid in cash, and walk away intact. It’s been the same forever. It is not some big epiphany. This situation is EXACTLY the same as it has ever been. We were having this discussion in 2005 before the worst of it went down. The only thing we were waiting for was the details.
“I’m going to be happy today”
Our resident chartologist is also happy.
http://www.happyfunny.com/content/7172.html
reinvestor101:
I am starting to think that you own a construction/building company and you own multiple properties that are not selling. Your angry outbursts give me the impression that you have more than the skin of your butt invested right now in the housing market.
See you and some of your construction buddies at the next get together.
Peace Out!
I don’t know if this was posted, but it’s gold.
Zippy Cheats & Tricks
[snip]
The document recommends three “handy steps” to loan approval:
Do not break out a borrower’s compensation by income, commissions, bonus and tips, as is typically done in a loan application. Instead, lump all compensation as the applicant’s base income.
If your borrower is getting some or all of a down payment from someone else, don’t disclose anything about it. “Remove any mention of gift funds,” the document states, even though most mortgage applications specifically require borrowers to disclose such gifts.
If all else fails, the document states, simply inflate the applicant’s income. “Inch it up $500 to see if you can get the findings you want,” the document says. “Do the same for assets.”
…
“This is not how we do things,” [Chase spokesman Tom Kelly] said. “We continue to investigate” the memo, Kelly said. “That kind of document would neither be condoned or tolerated.”
“That kind of document would neither be condoned or tolerated.”
Frankly, it should be denounced and rejected.
Rick: How can you close me up? On what grounds?
Captain Renault: I’m shocked, shocked to find that gambling is going on in here!
[a croupier hands Renault a pile of money]
Croupier: Your winnings, sir.
Captain Renault: [sotto voce] Oh, thank you very much.
[aloud]
Captain Renault: Everybody out at once!
There is no Fair & Rational reason why Stock Investment Income is taxed at a different rate then Interest Income or Dividend Income.
310 Confused
“There is no Fair & Rational reason why Stock Investment Income is taxed at a different rate then Interest Income or Dividend Income”
…or Earned Income.
njpatient Says:
March 27th, 2008 at 6:07 pm
310 Confused“There is no Fair & Rational reason why Stock Investment Income is taxed at a different rate then Interest Income or Dividend Income”…or Earned Income.
??? patent nonsense….you are providing incentive for long-term capital investment…
312
What’s wrong with incentive for labor?
You have to earn capital before you can invest capital. So think of a fair rate of taxation for earned income as incentivizing the necessary precursor for long-term capital investment.
njpatient Says:
March 27th, 2008 at 6:30 pm
312 What’s wrong with incentive for labor?
I wasn’t answering that question, and would not disagree with such an incentive.
Bear in mind, Obama increasing top ordinary income rates from 35% to 39% is a disincentive…
njpatient Says:
March 27th, 2008 at 6:33 pm
You have to earn capital before you can invest capital. So think of a fair rate of taxation for earned income as incentivizing the necessary precursor for long-term capital investment.
patient: Some would argue that long-term capital investment is necessary to create the opportunities for earned income.
You need to first build a factory for people to be able toil in it….
Furthermore, if folks have money to invest (i.e., they don’t need it to pay the rent, or buy food, or gas up the car, or put clothes on the kids’ backs), what the h*ll else are they going to do with it? They were going to stuff cash into their mattress if they didn’t get that lower tax rate?
Ridiculous.
njpatient Says:
March 27th, 2008 at 6:36 pm
Furthermore, if folks have money to invest (i.e., they don’t need it to pay the rent, or buy food, or gas up the car, or put clothes on the kids’ backs), what the h*ll else are they going to do with it? They were going to stuff cash into their mattress if they didn’t get that lower tax rate?
Ridiculous.
patient: you are way to smart and experienced to say something so myopic….
“You need to first build a factory for people to be able toil in it….”
That’s circular. This hypothesis always assumes the pre-existence of the capital. It works if you believe the first investor was G*d.
As we have noted here, the leaders of job creation in the United States are small businesses. You need to incentivize the small entrepreneurs to make that marginal decision and keep more of the spoils….it is capitalism and it works…..think broadly
If you stopped taxing actual labor at a punitively higher rate than investment, then you’d have a lot more people who were able to build enough capital to start a small business.
BTW - don’t think about the brokerage account…think about the entire country and the impact on business. I see everyday the impact of taxation on decisions on the margin…
We can have fun going around this mulberry bush some more at the next GTG, ’cause I have to go get in the car, but I’ll leave you with this thought, chi: You’re arguing for higher taxes.
How gauche!
;)
“I see everyday the impact of taxation on decisions on the margin…”
As do I.
njpatient Says:
March 27th, 2008 at 6:44 pm
If you stopped taxing actual labor at a punitively higher rate than investment, then you’d have a lot more people who were able to build enough capital to start a small business.
patient: I am not disagreeing with you.
I am responding to this comment:
“There is no Fair & Rational reason why Stock Investment Income is taxed at a different rate then Interest Income or Dividend Income”…or Earned Income.”
I am not even saying that I support the information that I am presenting. However, it is a valid set of arguments, and whether I agree with the overall impact is separate from question their veracity.
njpatient Says:
March 27th, 2008 at 6:40 pm
“You need to first build a factory for people to be able toil in it….”
That’s circular. This hypothesis always assumes the pre-existence of the capital. It works if you believe the first investor was G*d.
patient: bear in mind…we are already on the continuum…it doesn’t matter how it started…sunk cost fallacy :)
Warren Buffet disagrees with you Chi. Sorry.
“we are already on the continuum…it doesn’t matter how it started”
Reconcile with
“You need to first build a factory for people to be able toil in it….”
I don’t disagree with Confused either.
Jest poking the bear.
Chi,
Again, the usual disclaimers from me ( no economic knowledge) My thought has always been less tax on the money you work for, more tax on the money that works for you.
KL
njpatient Says:
March 27th, 2008 at 6:56 pm
“we are already on the continuum…it doesn’t matter how it started”
Reconcile with
“You need to first build a factory for people to be able toil in it….”
patient: your literal reading is fine, but you are playing semantics with language and it prevents you from addressing my point….
lisoosh Says:
March 27th, 2008 at 6:54 pm
Warren Buffet disagrees with you Chi. Sorry.
l: You are not closely reading what I am positing. Buffet? He long ago transcended capitalism. His marginal dollar means nothing to him, so he is not a good barometer. Do not overreact to this comment. On this particular point, I would not hold him out as authority on economic motivation. At this juncture, he makes sure bets….we need risk takers to move the country forward……
320.chicagofinance Says:
March 27th, 2008 at 6:42 pm
As we have noted here, the leaders of job creation in the United States are small businesses. You need to incentivize the small entrepreneurs to make that marginal decision and keep more of the spoils….it is capitalism and it works…..think broadly
Then allow Capital Gains Rate only for investment in Wholy Owned US Companies whose factories are exclusively in the US employing US citizens. Investment in Pseudo Global US companies with Outsourced Factories and Outsourced Employees can be taxed at the Earned Income Rate.
Tard (277)-
In that case, your employer has an idiot for an employee.
skep (281)-
He pretty much just revealed himself to be a black Corzine today.
Go for the lazy sheeple vote. Yep, that’ll unify America.
He’s just another wealth redistributor. I guess that’s all the Dems can trot out now.
Meanwhile, we get an addled old geezer on the other side.
Great choice…
Tard (282)-
If I worked for you, I’m pretty sure I would assault you within the first week.
You must be as inept at your business as your are in RE.
Tard (284)-
How the heck else is Obama gonna pay for your bailout?
ChiFi (294)-
“Jill: it is only $30B..and it is a subsidized loan that needs to be repaid…”
At 2.5% vig, with the borrower indemnified against unforseen losses. Nice terms.
Chi (297)-
Why do there have to be handouts for anyone?
I’m voting for the candidate with the biggest package.
Re: tax rates for labor vs. investment
i’ve always thought it unfair that the rich pay less tax on investments than a postman, for example, pays on income earned from carrying a sack of mail on his back all day - but, in the end, i guess it’s not about what’s fair, but it’s about what works for the economy. you have to give people extra incentive to risk their money - afterall, they could lose it also. (before the days of bailouts).
mack daddy (299)-
How do you think Malcolm McDowell feels?
That movie killed his career in its tracks.
BTW…I’ve seen “Caligula” at least 12 times (and I don’t like it, either). Just call it a personal problem of mine.
Tard (302)-
“You won’t take my joy.”
Maybe I can. Retard.
patient (308)-
That was SOP for originators between 2003-2005.
The Fannie/Freddie computer system gave them 10 tries per application to get an approval, before flagging the originator.
IMO, that makes Fannie/Freddie complicit in the fraud.
KL,
I just wanted to let you know that I enjoy almost every post you write! Maybe it’s a female bonding or something, but I agree with much of what you say. If you go to any GTG, I just may also (no offense, boys).
D
None taken..
But there were a number of ladies at the last GTG, not 50% of the attendees, but certainly more than 25%.
Some of them ladies were hot. Especially that JMacDaddio chick!
Chifi
Missed your response at 315 - would have cut me off at the pass. That’s what I get for trying to read in the car
343 clot
C’mon now - be fair: he’s also a coward.
Good to know! I just picture too many of youz guyz as guyz, I guess! We need a gender profile for the blog… it would help visualize appropriately- lol- the pictures I have already…maybe it was all of the cigar talk for the last GTG?
Chi - not really convinced.
I don’t think it was ever about what was good for the economy so much as what was good for the Gov’s biggest donors. Poor working people don’t get much sway in the halls of power.
I don’t also think that lower taxes are necessarily an extra incentive for investment. Human nature dictates that the biggest incentive is the possibility of a big payout. We don’t let people pay less taxes to get them to gamble in a casino or buy lottery tickets but they willingly throw their money away on ridiculous risks daily.
I don’t buy it as an incentive for small business set-up either. That is something I am in the process of doing now, and frankly a bigger incentive to me would be a better return on my earned income. It is the early years which are lean, the make or break years when people drop out because they can’t make enough to survive.
345 D, KL
Next time come, meet Mrs. Patient! (I only post my opinions here after she tells me what they are).
Stu
Jmac has those lovely lashes.
(No lost/clot, that wasn’t a vault reference).
Gary has nice hair too.
Thanks D,
I really wanted to go to last one. If the next GTG is closer to my neighborhood -South bergen,hudson, I’m going.
KL
Yes I am of the female persuasion.
I thought my toga party tapes were destoyed….
njpatient Says:
March 27th, 2008 at 9:28 pm
345 D, KL
Next time come, meet Mrs. Patient! (I only post my opinions here after she tells me what they are).
patient: BIG Mrs. Patient fan……you done good..
Folkes there is a new thread runing.
lisoosh Says:
March 27th, 2008 at 9:24 pm
Chi - not really convinced.
l: I don’t want to discount what you are saying, because it is your personal thought process and it is the crux of your decisionmaking on the margin. However, economic theory contrasts this perspective and is well supported by empirical evidence.
To try and offer an illustrative example, take New Jersey. We have a well educated, capable, and motivated workforce. Setting aside all manner of details such as cost of living, housing, infrastructure limitations etc., one major issue is that we have a shortage of commensurate employment to support our workforce.
Dropping the marginal income tax rate is not going to create job opportunities. If you are unemployed or underemployed, your tax rate is a secondary factor. What will create a solution would be to offer a tax incentive to a company to locate in New Jersey (i.e. investment on the margin spurred by a beneficial interim or long-term capital gain tax rate). Once the employer is here, they can employ New Jersey workers.
It is why NJ has always attempted to bribe NYC employers with tax breaks.
I would actually take this illustration one step further…..I would argue that dropping income tax rates (holding all other variables constant - ceteris parabus) would actually in the long-run be recaptured by investors, and they would tend to target a certain after-tax return on capital. As such, regardless of taxation, they would reverse engineer a certain net income by focusing on generating the necessary before-tax margin. The only plug would be to offer lower wages to ensure that margin. Since the worker is left in the same postion in terms of take home pay, it presents a long-term equilibrium, basically because workers tend to be less adaptable and mobile (e.g., in experience, skills, geography) than companies in the long-run, and so employers have greater leverage.
Chi - there are probably enormous numbers of variables in terms of investments - from the company deciding where to locate a company to somebody parking a couple of mill in stocks with a high dividend. Or placing that money in an offshore tax haven.
Not sure about the correlation between federal income/capital gains taxes and a company choosing between locating in NJ or in Georgia - those are different incentives (or corporate welfare to some).
I still view much of your viewpoint, at least in regard to federal taxes to be more about responses to the vagaries of the tax code and peoples wish to preserve as much of their wealth as possible rather than a concious effort at wealth creation for the nation and the health of the economy.
I would be curious to see any sources of research on flat taxes if you know of any. Just out of curiosity.
#342, Clotpoll:
To be fair, McDowell has had much more of a (admittedly mediocre) career after Caligula than he ever had before it — considering that pre-Caligula, everything bookending his A Clockwork Orange appearance was minor BBC TV.
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often think else damage as proud personalities.