Thu 3 Apr 2008
Preliminary March sales and inventory data for Northern New Jersey is in. Please note that this data is subject to revision.
The first graph plots the unadjusted sales data (closed sales) for the counties listed. Please note the lower bound of the graph, it is set to 500, not to zero. I do this to emphasize the seasonal nature of the Northern NJ market.
(click to enlarge)
The second graph is another view at the sales data for the full year. Please note that this graph does cross at zero.
(click to enlarge)
The third graph displays only March sales, 2000 to 2008 YOY.
(click to enlarge)
The fourth graph displays an overlay of Sales and Inventory from 2003 to 2007.
(click to enlarge)
The fifth graph displays the year over year change in inventory on a month by month basis.
(click to enlarge)
The sixth graph displays the year over year change in sales on a month by month basis.
(click to enlarge)
The last graph displays the absorption rate (not seasonally adjusted), in months:
(click to enlarge)
Additional tables/graphs:
NJAR Q4 Statistics - New Jersey Pricing by Bedroom
NJAR Q4 Statistics - New Jersey Pricing by Region
OFHEO, S&P Case Shiller, and NAR pricing graph, courtesy of Pretorius:
(click to enlarge)
Primero.
Yikes; promises to be a slow year.
Contracts spreadsheet updated:
http://njrereport.com/files/contracts.xls
Yikes; promises to be a slow year.
The contracts data gives us a glimpse at what closed sales might look like over the next two or three months. The downward trend continues.
The spring market appears to be a complete bust.
BC Bob Says:
April 3rd, 2008 at 5:39 pm
Chi,I am talking consumer discretionary, stocks. Yeah they’re down. However, sometimes cheap becomes cheaper. I like to short items that are trending down. When the technicals turn, I’ll turn. I have been short discretionary and long staples, as a spread.
ALL DISCLAIMERS.
Sure that has worked since 10/07, but it might have outlived its usefulness…..not that there isn’t more money on the table, but the risk/reward at this juncture kind of dissipated, no?
I see a decisive uptrend in MOM 2008 sales….
Got any recession years to mix in with the charts?
Dear Sellers,
Tick…. tick…. tick…. tick….
Sales rose!!!
Yay!!!
I see a bottom!!!!
Oh… wait… that was just an a$$
6 chi
beat me tuit.
New graph added, Year-over-year change in sales.
What does it say? No bottom.
March sales lower than January sales.
hoo boy.
That sales pace chart rocks grim
great stuff once again.
Thanks!
grim,
Effing beautiful… that’s all I could say.
Housing fall down go boom!
I’ve fallen and I can’t get up?
Hey lost, Mrs. Patient and I are taking the Little Patients down to New Orleans in a couple of weeks for JazzFest.
Patient,
Just rub it in. We are desperately trying to find a way to get down there this year. If it happens at all, it will either be for New Year’s of the summer. As hot as it will be, I’m betting the summer.
Have you been there for Jazz Fest? You’re going to have an awesome time.
Sorry that’s New Years OR the summer.
Does the NAR present this kind of data on their site? Viewing their site has the same effect on me as a crucifix does to a vampire so I can’t go there to check.
lost
this will be the 5th year in a row at JazzFest - we’re not big spenders, so the trip consists of driving down (the three Little Patients are great on road trips and we have a blast) and we stay with the Patient-In-Laws while we’re down there, so it’s a great, cheap vacation for us. And, of course, good food in New Orleans can be had for a song.
I’m pretty pumped - some of my favorites are in the lineup the first Sunday.
do I smell a widening spread between actives and solds? Booyah!
From the AP:
Corzine fears $500M more in cuts to NJ state spending
Gov. Jon Corzine said today he may be forced to seek $500 million more in budget cuts.
The governor has already proposed a $33 billion budget with $2.7 billion in cuts. But Corzine said during an interview on CNBC today that sagging tax revenue may force more slashing.
The governor said federal officials should have taken quicker action to stave off economic problems. The nation is already in a recession, he said.
Patient
How long is the drive? It took me 17 hours to get to Atlanta (with a few wrong turns). I imagine the drive to NOLA is 24 hours? Fantastic that the kids behave for so long. New Orleans is a relatively inexpensive vacation even with air and hotel. It’s the food I spend a fortune on. Have you been to NOLA’s? It’s my fav restaurant. We have to talk at the next gtg about restaurants down there. Of course, that’s as long as you’re not in New Orleans at the time.
I really should have never looked at the lineup. I really want to see an act every day of it. Dammit!
“Sure that has worked since 10/07, but it might have outlived its usefulness…..not that there isn’t more money on the table, but the risk/reward at this juncture kind of dissipated, no?”
Chi,
I view things differently. It works until the market tells me otherwise. When markets are in trends, I don’t try to pick bottoms/tops. I can’t define cheap/expensive, the market has another definition. I’m not smart enough. That said, if a big move is caught on the downside, I may liquidate half, place stops or buy calls.
I look to sell BB steroid induced rallies, in this sector. If it’s working I stay with it. If it turns against me, my protection/stops will get me out. Trends normally go much futher/longer than most can imagine. Why screw up a good trade?
PA realtors cheer. I can hear the corks popping from Philly to Bucks. No wonder I sold my rowhouse in Philly in one day.
“The downward trend continues, the spring market appears to be a complete bust.”
JB,
Good news, only 10 months to the Super Bowl.
I thought this year would be bad, but damn this is really bad.
patient[17],
Be careful. Half the town is under water, the other half is indicted.
#3 Down goes Frazier!
do I smell a widening spread between actives and solds? Booyah!
I’ll add another graph, absorption.
12 more months of this and it will be time to buy. I cannot wait. To all those like me who patiently waited, our time is almost here!
Read my lipppppppppppsssssssssss”
The Spring Selling Season has now been renamed
THE WAKE UP AND SMELL THE COFFEE SEASON YOU GREEDY GRUBBING SELLERS
G’DAY GRANITE
SAYONARA STAINLESS
TV shows will focus on flipping burgers instead of houses
LET EM BURN
#33 I miss Booyaa Bob
Absorption rate graph (unadjusted) added.
The bursting of the tech bubble took out that POS Mutual Funds magazine.
Will this housing bust take out HGTV? I at least hope it takes out those flipper shows and My house is what worth what?
grim Says:
April 3rd, 2008 at 7:47 pm
Absorption rate graph (unadjusted) added.
YOU WILL BE ABSORBED!
http://sttos.epguides.info/GetIMG.asp?ID=56449
Senate bailout plan dies.
Senate Drops Aid for Bankrupt Homeowners
Republicans and business-friendly Democrats on Thursday scuttled a plan to give people threatened with losing their homes more leverage in winning favorable loan terms from their lenders in bankruptcy courts.
The Senate killed the bankruptcy plan by a 58-36 vote on the first full day of debate on a bill designed to boost the slumping housing market.
The Democratic-backed bankruptcy law changes, opposed by banks and their GOP allies and a handful of Democrats, would have given judges the power to cut interest rates and principal on troubled mortgages to help desperate borrowers trapped in subprime mortgages keep their homes.
The idea was to give borrowers duped into abusive mortgages leverage in getting their loan terms adjusted. Such power, said the plan’s chief proponent, Sen. Dick Durbin, D-Ill., would have helped “more people than all of the provisions combined” in the rest the bill.
But Republicans and 10 Democrats, along with Connecticut independent Joe Lieberman, voted to scuttle the bankruptcy provision. Opponents argued that, despite modifications by Durbin, the proposal would hurt more than it would have helped by leading mortgage lenders to ratchet up interest rates and thereby put another drag on the soft housing market.
The defeat of the bankruptcy plan highlighted a weakness that many people find with the bill — that it showers generous tax breaks on money-losing businesses like home builders but does little to help people facing foreclosure.
#26 ???
As a Bucks owner, wondering to what your comment is referring. thanks
Ara Hovnanian is on CNBC now talking about the new builder tax credit, and he is getting nailed on selling his shares of HOV!
The talking heads are calling it a rebate for the crack heads!
good times!
OT:
Sick! You WILL be absorbed!
http://startrek.com/startrek/videoview?id=2315153
grim (38)-
Thank God. If that thing had gotten traction, it’d be curtains.
…in my best Boooooyyyyaaaaaaah Bob voice…
The time has come to stop dancing greedy grubbers! The time to lower your prices and sell your overpriced crapshack was last November but you missed out! Hope you enjoy the taste of Friskies Casserole!
BABABABABBABABABOOOOOOOOOOOYYYYYYYYYYYYYAAAAAAAAAAAAAHHHHHHHHHHHH!!!!
24 lostinny
It usually takes us about 22 hours to drive down. The kids are really great - we listen to a ton of music, sing songs, read stories, nap, stop for meals, and they love staying in hotels.
I love all sorts of music, but on the way down it’s wall-to-wall jazz, blues, zydeco and bluegrass.
29 BC
hey!
That’s my family.
ok, so it’s Mrs. Patient’s family, but close enough…
“To all those like me who patiently waited, our time is almost here!”
I can’t imagine who you might be referring to.
Patient
That’s awesome. Although for me, I like to listen to music that is different then the music I’ll hear once I get to the event.
The absorption chart is great, too, grim. That’s a poke in the eye with a sharp stick!
“I can’t imagine who you might be referring to”.
ReInvestor101 of course.
Jim,
Do you have acess to NJMLS, they have a new feature- pdf graphs, if you have acess please take a look because they look more positive than yours. Of course we now have that delightful notice about key box showings. Feb’s are higher than jans. They don’t give last year numbers.
KL
patient[45],
Just kiddin.
“Sen. Dick Durbin, D-Ill., would have helped “more people than all of the provisions combined” in the rest the bill.”
The first name is appropriate.
Lost, my background is classical music, so I don’t mind the lead-in.
#6 chgo ?
#55 Ah Never mind, got it.
Sean [40],
Fast Money;
Did I hear this correctly, Paulson[John] thinks his short subprime trade, swaps, has currently attained just 25% of its potential/his target? If yes, WOW!
KL,
I do, but the Total Solds isn’t too pretty, they’ve got February sales down 28% year over year, and contracts down 25% year over year.
Must be the pretty colors.
#32 all hype, hear, hear….
sl
NJ Patient
Bands that I have worked for in the past and would not miss at the JazzFest- Kenny Wayne Shepard, Keb’Mo’, Elvis Costello, Bela Fleck, Neville Brothers, John Prine, Dr. John, Widespread Panic. Great people- good times.
Now worries, BC - was kiddin’ ya back.
Coast, that’s quite a lineup. What was your gig with those guys (and why stop)?
njcoast[60],
Looking for 1 more on that list?
60
That is quite a line up. I’m sure I wouldn’t have wanted to stop working with them.
njpatient
Backstage caterer. When they perform at NJ theatres I am their “Mom” for the day. Still cooking.
Patient
I enjoy classical myself. Actually, there’s almost nothing I won’t listen to except country and new skool rap. But you wouldn’t know it if you listened to my band.
65
Cool.
I like food.
65 Coast
I can cook. Need some help? :)
What do you play, lost?
Patient
Keyboards and I sing.
Uh oh, not good.
CEO: Schering-Plough cost-cutting will hit NJ hardest
Schering-Plough’s chief executive said today the budget ax will fall first and hardest in New Jersey as the drugmaker cuts more than $1 billion in spending after the abrupt collapse of its top-selling cholesterol medicines.
Fred Hassan, the company’s CEO, said the global cost-cutting plan was still under development but workers in the United States - particularly employees at the company’s Kenilworth headquarters - would bear the brunt of the projected 5,500 layoffs.
“The way its going to fall on the U.S., unfortunately, it’s going to fall on New Jersey,” Hassan said in a telephone interview. “That’s the way the situation has unfolded.”
Hassan said the company would lay off administrators first to spare laboratory researchers and workers on manufacturing lines that produce its stable of allergy, arthritis, respiratory and
cancer treatments.
Nice
I sing too. Used to play violin and piano, and write.
still_looking:
Give me a call, I will be up for a while….
I sing too. Used to play violin and piano, and write.
Great, so it sounds like we have enough musicians to put together a band to play while the state capsizes.
#74 Grim
I’ll run the soup kitchen!
I’m all for housing prices coming down to more realistic levels, but I’ve realized for it to get there things have to get really depressing. How do you guys stay so chipper w/ all this gloom and doom in the markets, in the food aisles, on the unemployment line, etc…
72
I write all the lyrics for my band. Last album I didn’t write any of the music or sing. This album will be very different. Hey maybe I can sample you?
74
Sorry but as a woman and a selfish beyotch, when that ship sinks I know I get a spot in a lifeboat.
Going back to the what to bid on a house discussion:
A family friend has put up their mothers house FSBO. He has the house listed at 360K but has said he will take 320k. Sellers are clearly setting asking prices above their minimum acceptable price. If you were to put a 10% off bid on that house you would be leaving money on the table. Granted this house will never sell for 360 or 320 for that matter but that is a different story. Although, he did say that a lot of people are taking the fliers he has out.
I guess my advice would be bid a number you can afford and one that you wont regret if prices come down another 10-15%.
re: (57) Bob,
Did you catch that discussion today in the Senate about Bear shorts and trading volume activity previous to Bear’s demise and the mention of collusion by Senator Dodd while he was grilling Chris Cox Chairman, Securities and Exchange Commission? Word is apparently the biggest Bear short was Paulson[John] who was one of Bear’s biggest Hedge Fund clients.
I believe Paulson[John]was on CNBC on March 10th or 11th telling people Bear was fine all the while he was busy pulling his money out of the place and shorting the stock.
Smells like collusion, and Senator Dodd knows it. Not like anything is going to happen, the DOJ is a joke now, the SEC is a asleep at the wheel now.
The taxpayer takes another one without the vaseline.
Speaking of music, check out the inspiration for the Animal Muppet:
http://www.collegehumor.com/video:1809497
# 74 Old timey and irish fiddler here. a little rusty after popping out the wee spud, but after a few beers does it really matter?
74 grim
Lol
We are currently in the “re-arranging the deck chairs” stage
79 galgon
Thanks for a great real-world example of what I’ve been saying today.
82 sassy
Oh man - get a couple drinks in me and I won’t care. I’ve got a lot of irish stuff on the cd shelf (old blind dogs, anyone?) as well.
77 lost
You sure can.
Albums? Can I find these albums anywhere?
Patient
Get my email from Grim. Last time I tried to be my band on here, it wasn’t allowed. I’ll send you the link for our page and our myspace. But I’m quite sure you’re not going to be used to that kind of thing.
Regarding TJ’s interesting 6% a year calculator post in today’s 300-comment thread …
how do you take into account additions? Such as a new kitchen? Finished basement? pool?
Now that anyone cares, but we’re out of NYC and in Bucks County, PA. 361-ish more days of renting before we buy. The search commences in a month or two.
87 lost
sent grim a contact
Patient
Cool. I’m off to watch the end of the Ottawa game.
Hard Place Says:
April 3rd, 2008 at 9:35 pm
I’m all for housing prices coming down to more realistic levels, but I’ve realized for it to get there things have to get really depressing. How do you guys stay so chipper w/ all this gloom and doom in the markets, in the food aisles, on the unemployment line, etc…
____________________________________________
I would not say that I am “chipper” about all the problems in the market/economy. People like myself and still_looking were early to realize that there was a giant bubble in housing a couple of years ago. So instead of drinking the bubble Kool-Aid, we rented and saved money knowing this was going to pop sooner or later. It also took a lot of reading on websites like this to affirm our beliefs with solid facts.
Spring selling season is a complete bust thus far. Gotta love KHOV, no conscience whatsover
I stay chipper by knowing that when the time to buy arrives, I’ll be able to do so without committing financial suicide. I’ll be able to get a place I want at a fair price and not fund someone else’s retirement. I’ll be able to own something for less than the cost of renting (unlike most who bought from 02-07) and I’ll be able to afford non-plastic furniture.
#85 spent far too much time at the Eagle Tavern, McGovern’s and a few others….never had time to listen to too many cds… I’ll have to check ‘em out! thanks
Never even considered to by at such crazy prices before. And even though I was promised a 0% loan for downpaylent by my employer at my last review (I’m still short for a downpayment 90-95K for a home I’m looking for) I’ll wait for at least a year
Blood, how close are you to Yardley? The Continental reopens in two weeks, wife of the contractor tells me.
From Bloomberg:
U.S. Probably Lost Jobs for Third Month as Economy Weakened
The U.S. lost jobs for a third consecutive month in March and the unemployment rate rose, signs the economy continues to turn down, economists said before a report today.
Payrolls shrank by 50,000 workers, according to the median estimate of 79 economists surveyed by Bloomberg News before the Labor Department’s report. The jobless rate rose to 5 percent from 4.8 percent in February, the survey also showed.
Job losses have shaken consumer confidence, contributing to a weakening in spending that has almost stalled growth. The report reinforces forecasts the Federal Reserve, whose Chairman Ben S. Bernanke this week acknowledged the economy may face a recession, will need to do more to prevent further deterioration.
“Whatever way you slice it, the labor market doesn’t feel good for the average person,” said Ethan Harris, chief U.S. economist at Lehman Brothers Holdings Inc. in New York. “You’re seeing the weakness spread more broadly. It’s not an abysmal outlook, but it is quite weak.”
Projections in the Bloomberg survey ranged from a decline of 150,000 jobs to a gain of 65,000. The report is due in Washington at 8:30 a.m.
The drop in payrolls would follow a 63,000 decline in February. The last time employment fell for at least three consecutive months coincided with the start of the Iraq War in 2003.
http://www.bloomberg.com/apps/news?pid=20601109&sid=aefAJU_88vfs&refer=home
“Lenders who allow owners to stay in their homes are distorting the record foreclosure rate..”
Any lenders out there with an empty house, 4/2 in the area of Middletown, NJ to Newtown, PA, please contact me. I am willing to live in your empty house for the next year. We will make it look lived in, but inviting.
We will provide:
-free lawn service
-semi-professional cleaning once per week
-window washing
-carpet shampoo once each six months
-no dogs
-cupcakes and cookies for your open houses
-jovial 40-ish guy who could stands around and chat Mets with all the NJ guys coming through while the wives look.
Contact me through JB. ;)
PAT 98 Sounds like a plan!You would think they would go for it very cost effective.
From BusinessWeek:
Death of a Bond Insurer
Wall Street used ACA to hide loads of subprime risk. It worked—until the tiny company collapsed
From Forbes:
Subprime Tsunami
U.S. and European banks have fessed up to massive losses related to subprime mortgage investments, and lots more is likely yet to come. But a major financial center is still missing from the picture–Japan.
To date, only a handful of big institutions there have booked subprime losses. Among them: Mizuho Financial Group (nyse: MFG - news - people ) at $3.4 billion, Nomura Holdings at $1.4 billion, and Norinchukin Bank, which wrote off $382 million and announced an unrealized loss of $18.3 billion as of the end of September.
Shinsei Bank booked a $228 million loss between April and December, and said it would sell its marquee headquarters building to Morgan Stanley (nyse: MS - news - people ).
The betting in Tokyo is that there are plenty more such write downs to come.
One worrisome sign: Takinogawa Shinkin Bank, a little-known credit association, took a $70 million hit. Japanese banks, especially the smaller ones, rarely travel alone. UBS analyst Nana Otsuki estimates the total amount of subprime and subprime-related debt in Japanese banks’ hands could total up to $67 billion.
Now even the banks are walking away,another good one by Barry Ritholtz
Some lenders are approaching the Foreclosure process a little bit, how shall we delicately call this — differently. They are considering the sale decision prior to even taking possession. Their conclusions may surprise you:
“In some cities that have low property values, where there are dense concentrations of foreclosures, you see lenders who file foreclosure proceedings but don’t actually take control of the properties, because the lenders have to maintain them and pay taxes on them.”
“There are areas in some parts of the country where property values are quite low, and there are no large-scale expectations of them going up. They don’t know that they will ever recoup those costs,” and so the lenders never re-take title to the properties, allowing them to become derelict.” (emphasis added)
There you have it: Abandoned, Non-REO Foreclosures.
The local market conditions are what seems to determine the abandonment decision. In a region where the job and real estate market is doing anything better than “a little soft,” I would surmise that abandonment makes no sense at all.
However, at a certain point, in a weaker region, with declining neighborhoods, certain lenders might make the decision to simply walk away from a large swath of (potential) real estate holdings, on the simple basis that it might be cheaper to do so.
There are very significant costs to this. Consider what the potential impact of these property abandonments by the lender means:
- Total write off of the loan;
- Boarded up homes/neighborhoods;
- Loss of tax revenue to the local school district or town;
- Long delays before the local town, municipality, or state can take possession due to tax arrears.
Thus, these incomplete foreclosures/abandonments can have very significant impacts.
If this becomes widespread, we could be in the process of creating an entire new universe of suburban slums…
LINK
http://seekingalpha.com/article/71176-lender-abandoned-non-reo-foreclosures
lost (66)-
Do you like Christian thrash metal?
grim (74)-
I’ll supply the deck chairs.
Great. I flip on the TV, and there’s Kudlow.
Yeech.
Clot you crack me up.
mike (102)-
“If this becomes widespread, we could be in the process of creating an entire new universe of suburban slums…”
Slums? I’m thinking ghost towns…
#107 Just think of all the action movies that can be filmed in those abandoned areas. The local government’s would be happy to have a studio blow those ghost towns up for free ad hire some locals for extras.
Of course we now have that delightful notice about key box showings.
KL,
I haven’t given this much thought, so take it with a grain of salt, but I think you would need to adjust showings for total inventory. The raw number could possibly be misleading in a rising inventory situation. More homes on the market, client wants to see them. When you’ve got 2 homes that match the client’s requirements, you can’t have more than 2 showings (yea yea, repeats).
I’d like to see the YOY change in showings normalized by inventory level.
Although I’m sure Pre is going to jump all over me claiming conspiracy, because we all know that the number is going to be negative once you run it through that beige box.
Clot 102 With the banks doing their version of jingle mail,slums or ghost towns are inevitable. What this portends for revenue at all levels of are gov is very scary considering what bad shape states like NJ & the fed gov. itself is in the future is GRIM.
Pat,
Thought this bit was interesting..
The number of borrowers at least 90 days late on their home loans rose to 3.6 percent at the end of December, the highest in at least five years, according to the Mortgage Bankers Association in Washington. That figure, for the first time, is almost double the 2 percent who have been foreclosed on.
Lenders who allow owners to stay in their homes are distorting the record foreclosure rate and delaying the worst of the housing decline, said Mark Zandi, chief economist at Moody’s Economy.com, a unit of New York-based Moody’s Corp. These borrowers will eventually push the number of delinquencies even higher and send more homes onto an already glutted market.
“We don’t have a sense of the magnitude of what’s really going on because the whole process is being delayed,” Zandi said in an interview. “Looking at the data, we see the problems, but they are probably measurably greater than we think.”
Here are some good ones.
Quotes of the Day
“You have to talk to your lender. Your lender wants to talk to you; your lender does not want to own your house.” - Ruhi Maker, the author of the Empire Justice Center study on a widening foreclosure crisis in New York State. (WHAM TV, Apr. 2nd)
“Having this alliance is much more helpful than not having this alliance.” - Faith Schwartz, Hope Now Alliance’s executive director, responding to criticism of the coalition of mortgage lenders and government groups that form the Hope Now Alliance. Critics say Hope Now has not had much success in helping struggling homeowners avoid foreclosure. (Int’l Herald Tribune, Apr. 2nd)
“That doesn’t fix the problem. You still have houses that need a buyer…and the U.S. government owning a declining asset.” – White House Spokesman Tony Fratto on a Democrat-sponsored bill that seeks to allow the Federal Housing Administration to renegotiate troubled mortgages and insure up to $300 billion in new ones. (US News & World Report, Mar. 31st)
Link
http://seekingalpha.com/article/71121-housing-market-tracker-foreclosure-crisis-spreads-in-new-york
While reading this I was surprised to find Hope Now has 3 full time staff members not 3 in an area or region 3 period. The gov has more people being payed to do studies of mating habits of some animals Or some other equally silly thing & we put 3 people on the foreclosure problem.
Thain says Merrill doesn’t need to borrow Lehman’s begging cup. However, he did not mention that they busted 10 windows this week.
miw[112],
How do you qualify to be Executive Director of Hope Now?
BC 114 Mail order degree & a pack of Chiclets!
“London office space take-up plummets”
“A key measure of growth of the financial sector in London’s main financial district shows that it has almost drawn to a halt, according to the latest figures from property agency Atisreal.”
“Take-up of office space by banks and finance companies has dropped from a historical norm of 40pc of the market to just 8pc in the first quarter of this year.”
http://www.telegraph.co.uk/money/main.jhtml?xml=/money/2008/04/03/cnprop103.xml
can’t wait to hear what emanates from Kudlow’s coke-addled brain next.
Payrolls out in just over a minute. I’ve got butterflies.
I’m not sure whether investools is such a bad name because I hear “stools” or I think they’re implying that the investors are tools, but either way they need to change the name of the product.
d’oh!!
NON farm -80k UP 5.1
It’s ALL good news!!!
OUCH.
It’s gonna be a long walk home.
February revised -76k from -63k
The hits just keep on coming.
BREAKING
NEWS
Economy lost 80,000 jobs in March, marking third straight month of declines, in latest sign of recession. Unemployment up to 5.1%.
Don’t worry though…No jobs were lost in New York or in the immediate vicinity.
Great time to be a geologist?
What about the marginally attached and discouraged?
“Over the past3 months, payroll employment has declined by 232,000. In March, employmentcontinued to fall in construction, manufacturing, and employment services,while health care, food services, and mining added jobs. Average hourly earnings rose by 5 cents, or 0.3 percent, over the month.”
“About 1.4 million persons (not seasonally adjusted) were marginally attached to the labor force in March. These individuals wanted and were available for work and
had looked for a job sometime in the prior 12 months. They were not counted as un-
employed because they had not searched for work in the 4 weeks preceding the survey.
Among the marginally attached, there were 401,000 discouraged workers in March, about
the same as a year earlier. Discouraged workers are defined as persons not currently
looking for work specifically because they believed no jobs were available for them.
The other 951,000 persons classified as marginally attached to the labor force in
March cited reasons such as school attendance or family responsibilities.”
http://www.bls.gov/news.release/empsit.nr0.htm
Great News - keep the layoffs coming. Back in 1991 when I had a low paying secure job I was able to get hampton rentals, cheap used luxery cars and cheap ski trips out west. A good recession is always a plus for the little guy!
Maybe one day a million dollars will once again buy a home that you can call a mansion rather that a starter home.
Traders now see a one-in-five chance of a half-point reduction in the benchmark rate, to 1.75 percent!!!!
It is a bull market in bonds!!!
#76 hardplace, Thing already are depressing, sad but true, and prices are already falling. People here are not what I would say chipper, but perhaps a little of the attitude “I told you so.”
mike (110)-
Here’s my question: if whole city blocks are hit by foreclosure filings- and then the banks abandon the properties- those properties become the responsibility of gubmint as property taxes fall into default.
Normally, gubmints would issue tax certificates on those properties, then eventually seize them. But, in this “brave new world”, do the gubmints just come in with a bulldozer, take it all to the ground, and call it a day?
Cities like Buffalo and Cleveland are obtaining judgments against lenders to force them to take responsibility for these abandoned homes. But, how can these cities enforce the judgments in an environment of ever-dwindling enforcement resources?
BC (114)-
Same way you used to qualify for a mortgage: fog a mirror.
From Bloomberg:
U.S. Loses 80,000 Jobs, Unemployment Rate Increases
The U.S. lost jobs for a third consecutive month in March and the unemployment rate rose to the highest September 205, pointing to an economy that may already be in a recession.
Payrolls shrank by 80,000, more than forecast, after a decrease of 76,000 in February that was more than initially reported, the Labor Department said today in Washington. The jobless rate rose to 5.1 percent, the highest since September 2005, from 4.8 percent.
Job losses have shaken consumer confidence, contributing to a weakening in spending that has almost stalled growth. The report reinforces forecasts that the Federal Reserve, whose Chairman Ben S. Bernanke this week acknowledged the economy may face a recession, will need to do more to prevent further deterioration.
“The odds of a recession are now very high,” Chris Rupkey, chief financial economist at Bank of Tokyo-Mitsubishi UFJ Ltd. in New York, said before the report. “It will be a miracle if the economy is able to keep growing as the lack of a paycheck will put a brake on consumer spending. The Fed still has its work cut out for it.”
…
Revisions subtracted 67,000 jobs from the originally reported figures for January and February. The last time the economy lost jobs for at least three consecutive months coincided with the start of the Iraq War in 2003.
The jobless rate was forecast to rise to 5 percent from 4.8 percent in February, the survey said.
Not to worry the gov & service ind added jobs. So more on the gov dole payed by the unemployed tax payer & more people flipping burgers. Recipe for disaster.
Clot
You got me. There’s another genre I can add to the list.
BC (127)-
“What about the marginally attached and discouraged?”
What about the baby that was born 17 days ago and just got counted as part of the workforce?
How do you tell a newborn that his a$$ is already mortgaged to the hilt and his very existence helps form the basis for a sham statistic?
In the world of labor stats, the best thing a US citizen can do is die.
We must redeem our straw men in due course!
“The odds of a recession are now very high,” Chris Rupkey”
Don’t you just love these experts. Hello, we’ve been in a recession for the past few months. That said, economist’s require a year of date before making their official call. You can bet the recovery will be underway, when they finally ring the bell.
Now if Big Pharma could just develop housing Viagara…
#138 BC Bob: yes, and then they can say it was short and hopefully shallow which is what they knew it would be all along, after the fact. If you know what I mean. (need more coffee)
Shore (139)-
They can just dispense Pez at $9 a pill, have the FDA bless it and wait for the suckers to start buying in droves.
# 24
I vote for Commanders
#133 The Fed still has its work cut out for it.
Yes, just cut to zero and get it done with already.
April is open house month not bad news month!! Seriouly tho..the stats quoted here do not surprise me…The house around the corner is 100k overpriced. The open house had NO LOOKERS. The RE parked her late model Jag in front and she was the only car all day. It hasn’t yet had any price reduction so after the intial open house it has had no interest. Same agent sold one in the hood here recently and she sent out a glossy flyer to everyone on her mailing list that she had actually moved a house…like she’d cured cancer or something…it’s ONE house.this woman is one of the top agents in the area.
Clot 131 I don’t have the answer & neither does the gov. I would like to see these homes fixed & rented cheap sort of like sec.8. Give the dam things away to people who sign a contract to fix them & 2 year tax abatement. At least then there will be a rateable down the road.
mike (145)-
Don’t look now, but after the boomers check out, the population takes a big dive. Within a generation, we won’t need the already-enormous amount of housing stock that’s currently on hand.
Plus, we already have evidence that the preferred next-generation mode of housing will be in the transit village/European mode.
Is it the Garage Mahals in cornfields that gubmints will be bulldozing?
Laurie (144)-
And, obviously, the lookers ain’t buying the open houses they do choose to attend.
Just hungry lions sizing up the wildebeests.
Rate cut hope rally?
re: (131) ghost towns and abandonded blocks. You don’t need to go too far to see what will happen. Take a ride when you have time to 118th Ave and Sutphin Blvd in Queens, Zip code 11434, between the Belt parkway and the VanWyck Expressway.
Looks like the housing abandonment of the 1970s, where entire blocks are stripped of anything worthwile and the squatters and druggies have taken over many abandonded homes.
There are so many forclosed homes there that you need to zoom in on realtytrac down to the block level.
http://www.realtytrac.com/MapSearch/MapSearch/MapSearch.aspx?zipOnly=true&zipcode=11434&selStatus=M&exactzip=1&accnt=64751&
“Don’t look now, but after the boomers check out”
Clot [146],
That, along with the useless in Trenton, is a bigger concern of mine as compared to 30-40% off 2005. What’s the pipeline 15-20 years down the road?
grim (148)-
Yep. Piling into Treasuries from the get today. Think I hear Santelli now talking about traders believing there’s an implicit Fed guarantee of continued rate whackage.
Great. The inmates think they control the asylum.
“Rate cut hope rally?”
JB,
Bad news is good news.
BC (152)-
Nobody on the beach today in the Caribbean. Battle stations.
95 firestorm
Watch that 0% loan from your employer. You’ll have a reasonable interest rate imputed as taxable income.
Hey, look on the bright side, interest rates are at historic lows and there’s plenty of houses to choose from! I heard this from a realtor. :o
Clot,
They have expanded their network. We also have to monitor the Isle of Wight. Fun and games.
Hey, some of you guys are famous:
http://blog.nj.com/jerseyblogs/2008/04/xanadu_too_ugly_for_the_meadow.html
“Hey, look on the bright side”
Gary,
I agree. The recent homeowner may only be down 20%. They should take a bow, much better than many hedge funds and the IB’s [the biggest hedgies of them all]. They should all storm the window.
# 74 “Great, so it sounds like we have enough musicians to put together a band to play while the state capsizes.”
If I recall correctly, one of the last songs the Band on the Titanic played was “In the Shadows,” which seems appropriate to the current RE market, as that is where the buyers are staying. Can you guys fo a version of it in honor of the current market conditions?
Well, In the Shadows or maybe Snowblind by Black Sabbath :)
Shore Guy,
More like “Knockin’ on Heaven’s Door” by Dylan.
No Depression In Heaven by the Carter Family might be more appropriate..
For fear the hearts of men are failing,
For these are latter days we know
The Great Depression now is spreading,
God’s word declared it would be so
I’m going where there’s no depression,
To the lovely land that’s free from care
I’ll leave this world of toil and trouble,
My home’s in Heaven, I’m going there
In that bright land, there’ll be no hunger,
No orphan children crying for bread,
No weeping widows, toil or struggle,
No shrouds, no coffins, and no death
This dark hour of midnight nearing
And tribulation time will come
The storms will hurl in midnight fear
And sweep lost millions to their doom
(c) A.P. Carter, 1936
“Is it the Garage Mahals in cornfields that gubmints will be bulldozing?”
Yes.
This has been another episode of Easy Answers to Easy Questions.
Or Atlantic City, by the Patron Saint of NJ
“Maybe everything that dies someday comes back.” At least that seems to be the hope for those who bought during the bubble.
“Enter Sandman”, Metallica?
From the outside it looks like a charming Victorian home. This is a huge successful lowball.
In Morristown MLS#: 2333955
OLP on 10/24/06: 924,900
SP on 4/1/2008: 525,000
Last sale 6/25/02 for 775,000
With the numbers Grim posted earlier maybe “Children of the Grave” (another Sabbath tune) best summs up many sellers in this market.
And the McMansions going to rot on the edge of the burbs can take a cue from “Darkness on the Edge of Town.”
Rachel,
Was there a mass murder in that place, it seems way too cheap..
Check out the remarks:
Steal of the Decade! Sensational Price Reduction!
169
Exorcism included for $1 in consideration?
Shore (170)-
Don’t mess with Beelzebub.
NEW YORK, April 3 (Reuters) - A third of all home sales planned to prevent foreclosure fail, due largely to sluggish response from mortgage companies that service the loans, a survey showed on Thursday.
The study of more than 3,000 real estate agents last month by Campbell Communications found it takes mortgage servicers an average of 4.5 weeks to provide answers on so-called short sales, in which the sale price is below the balance of an existing loan.
Short-sales and other pre-foreclosure sales are of increasing importance to the U.S. housing market, which is suffering from falling prices, rising defaults and high inventories. Together, the sales account for one in every five transactions nationwide, the survey said.
Foreclosures reached record heights in 2007 as risky loans made during the housing boom turned sour as home prices began to fall. The loss of homes has pushed the economy closer to recession and is the focus of myriad programs of lenders and lawmakers to stop losses to consumers and financial institutions that extended the credit.
Slow responses on short-sales from banks, such as Washington Mutual Inc (WM) and Lehman Brothers Holdings Inc’s (LEH) Aurora Loan Services, appear to reflect a reluctance to accept up-front losses, the survey said. Potential buyers are walking away.
“With rapidly declining prices, combined with 100 percent or greater financing, many of the sellers are so far in the hole that the mortgage companies are hesitant to accept what the market will bear, and end up forcing these would-be sellers into foreclosure,” the survey said.
In addition to WaMu and Aurora, real estate agents gave low grades on response times to American Home Mortgage, whose servicer was acquired out of bankruptcy court by billionaire investor Wilbur Ross in September. Agents gave the highest marks to National City Corp (NCC) and units of HSBC Holdings and Wells Fargo & Co (WFC), according to the survey.
Other reasons for failed short-sales include damage to the property, appraisals below the planned purchase price and sellers’ inability to pay commissions.
Responses from mortgage servicers on sales of property that they own through foreclosures averaged less than two weeks.
# 171
Is that Big Ben’s middle name, perchance. Just kidding, I know it is Big Dick’s.
They should just give a purchase price tax credit to builders to bull doze half completed homes if they promise not to build on that lot for 10 years and a tax credit to banks to bull doze their foreclosed homes if they promise not to sell the land for ten years. Lets take all those homes back off the market and go green. It is the inventory stupid.
Since we’re on songs;
My City’s in Ruins;
There is a blood red circle
On the cold dark ground
And the rain is falling down
The church door’s thrown open
I can hear the organ’s song
But the congregation’s gone
My city of ruins
My city of ruins
Now the sweet bells of mercy
Drift through the evening trees
Young men on the corner
Like scattered leaves,
The boarded up windows,
The empty streets
While my brother’s down on his knees
My city of ruins
My city of ruins
Has this been posted yet?
From today’s WSJ:
States Move Fast on Mortgage Aid
Bans on Foreclosure
Give Debtors Time,
Dismay Loan Firms
By RUTH SIMON and AMY MERRICK
April 4, 2008; Page A2
State governments are acting more aggressively to help homeowners avoid foreclosure, frustrated by what they view as the federal government’s inadequate response to the mortgage crisis. But some of the programs are putting states at odds with mortgage lenders.
Ohio officials announced Tuesday that they had enlisted more than 1,000 local attorneys to work with certain borrowers free of charge to try to block foreclosures.
Wednesday, an Illinois lawmaker introduced a bill, backed by the state’s governor, that would impose a moratorium of as long as 60 days on foreclosures. The measure would apply only to borrowers who enter housing counseling and is meant to give them more time to work out a deal with lenders.
Maryland Gov. Martin O’Malley signed emergency legislation Thursday to give borrowers at least 150 days to cure defaults, effectively creating a short-term moratorium on foreclosures. The state also is requiring mortgage-servicing companies to provide the names of borrowers whose adjustable-rate mortgages are about to reset to higher rates, and it is asking companies to stop levying late fees and other charges on borrowers whose request for a loan workout is being evaluated.
The state actions come as Congress considers a variety of plans to aid the housing market, including a $15 billion plan that includes a tax credit to buyers of properties facing foreclosure and grants for communities to buy and refurbish foreclosed properties. But there is little in the plan that would help individual borrowers facing foreclosure, and state officials say they can’t wait for federal help.
[snip]
“We have a crisis in mortgage foreclosures, and this seemed like the boldest way that we could respond to the problem,” said state Sen. Ellen Anderson, a sponsor of a Minnesota bill that would let some borrowers with subprime loans or negative amortization mortgages defer paying a portion of the amount owed, without being considered delinquent. A negative amortization mortgage is one in which the loan balance can grow even if the borrower keeps up with the payments.
The Minnesota legislation would require a mortgage lender attempting to foreclose on a home to honor a borrower’s request for a 12-month deferment. During that time, the borrower would have to continue paying either the monthly payment due on the loan at the time it was made, or 65% of the monthly payment at the time of default, whichever was less, though the borrower would eventually have to make up the deferred payments. The bill has passed committees in the Minnesota House and Senate, but the governor has said he probably will veto it. Wednesday, the bill’s sponsors sent to the governor a letter suggesting that lawmakers work with him to craft a compromise.
The legislation faces strong industry opposition. “It would significantly erode the confidence lenders and borrowers have about the stability of contracts in Minnesota,” said Tom Deutsch, deputy executive director of the American Securitization Forum, an industry group.
These latest efforts by states are more aggressive — and in some cases more controversial — than earlier programs, most of which provided counseling services or offered to refinance certain home loans into state-backed mortgages with better terms. However, the counseling and refinancing programs aren’t helping as many homeowners as hoped, in part because borrowers seeking state help tend to be in such bad financial shape that their situations don’t lend themselves to easy solutions.
As a result, the programs are targeting more troubled borrowers. Beginning May 1, borrowers in Massachusetts will have 90 days to cure any defaults before their mortgage company can initiate a foreclosure. Massachusetts officials have already obtained 30- to 60-day delays in the foreclosure process for more than 630 borrowers facing the loss of their homes. More than half were able to avoid foreclosure through modifications, refinances, short sales and other initiatives, state officials say.
Under Ohio’s new legal effort, pro bono attorneys will counsel certain homeowners facing foreclosure, try to broker deals with mortgage companies, and represent borrowers in mediation or in court.
“There are defenses to many more of these proceedings than we ever thought,” said Ohio Attorney General Marc Dann. For instance, the party bringing the foreclosure action may not own the mortgage, he said, or attorneys may be able to show that the mortgage was “fraudulently induced.”
Such efforts “will help promote the conversation between borrowers and lenders,” said Paul Richman, vice president of state government affairs for the Mortgage Bankers Association. “It’s something we don’t have a problem with so long as it’s not being used to create unnecessary and frivolous delays in the legal process.” However, the association opposes foreclosure moratoriums.
http://online.wsj.com/article/SB120727451884988549.html?mod=hps_us_whats_news
JB,
The Boss is in moderation.
What seriously scares me about the markets ignorance of negative news (such as today’s jobs report) is that when the realization finally does occur, the size and volume of the drop will be much larger (and scarier) than it should have been.
The FED discount window is simply an extremely low interest loan that must be paid back between 28 and 90 days, if I recall correctly. If the problems that created the credit crisis are not fixed by the time these loans are due, then we are right back where we started. Unless of course, the window stays open indefinitely.
Heaven help us if the Chinese call in their loans to us.
In the for what it is worth Department.
“It pays to be the boss, especially if you’re a CEO in New Jersey. The Garden State is the top paying state.”
http://www.cnbc.com/id/23918484?photo=7
re: (174) John
So you are saying the Fed, State and the municipalites should give the builders tax credits because they overestimated demand?
If you missed the CNBC fast money comment last night while they had Ira Hovnanian on the show, Karen Finerman called the proposed tax rebate a discount for the crack heads!
Let the builders go under, they are a service that is no longer needed.
Stu,
I would put the odds 70-30 that they keep that thing open to the I-banks on a monthly see as you go basis. Trading revenue is the only positive on their balance sheets right now as there’s little or no ipo/m&a activity.
Also, from the WSJ:
FHA Loans Grow Costly as Banks Add Fees
By JAMES R. HAGERTY
April 4, 2008; Page A2
Politicians are prodding the Federal Housing Administration to help revive the nation’s housing market by enabling more Americans to obtain or refinance home mortgages. But banks that make loans insured by the federal agency are adding fees and restrictions that make those loans more costly and less widely available.
Congress recently approved legislation that raises the ceiling on loans the FHA can insure to as much as $729,750 in the
Demand for FHA loans has jumped as other types of mortgages have become more expensive and harder to obtain.
J.P. Morgan Chase & Co.’s home-mortgage unit this week informed lenders that sell loans to the big bank that it will require “price adjustments” on the new, larger variety of FHA loans. The adjustments will add about half a percentage point to the interest rate on those loans, mortgage executives said. A spokeswoman for J.P. Morgan Chase declined to comment.
Lou Barnes, a mortgage banker at Boulder West Financial Services, Boulder, Colo., said other big lenders appear to be making price adjustments roughly in line with those announced by Chase. Mr. Barnes said he could offer a rate of about 6.375%, with no fees or “points” paid to reduce the interest, on the new “jumbo” FHA loans, compared with about 5.875% on smaller FHA loans.
Kevin W. Lynch, a mortgage broker at A. Anderson Scott Mortgage Group in Rockville, Md., said he has been quoted rates of nearly 7% on jumbo FHA loans. The loans are so expensive they “aren’t going to sell,” Mr. Lynch said. “It’s a waste of everybody’s time.”
The higher rates largely reflect muted demand from investors for securities backed by jumbo FHA loans, traders say. Those securities are expected to be less actively traded than ones backed by smaller FHA loans, and the larger loans may be apt to refinance faster, reducing the value to investors.
Meanwhile, many banks also are requiring minimum credit scores for borrowers seeking FHA loans. The FHA doesn’t set a minimum, but many lenders recently have begun requiring scores of at least 580 on the standard scale of 300 to 850.
That is shutting out some people who otherwise would qualify for an FHA loan, said Daniel H. Jacobs, chief executive of 1st Metropolitan Mortgage, a nationwide broker based in Charlotte, N.C.
At a time when Congress wants the FHA to provide more help to the mortgage market, “this is taking a major step backwards,” Mr. Jacobs said.
http://online.wsj.com/article/SB120727489462588565.html?mod=loomia&loomia_si=t0:a16:g2:r1:c0.21566
Shore guy there is something wrong with your top ten paying professions list. How the hell can an anesthsiologist only earn an average of $184,340?
Anesthesiologists: $184,340 per year average
Sean,
I saw that last night, kudos to K-fine for calling bs on that one.
# 183
Not my list. I just thought the reference to CEO pay in NJ was interesting. Not that it compares to what politicos can put together with multiple jobs and a little graft.
Builders are not paying taxes anyhow. If I give them a credit for knocking down a building they can’t use it anyhow till they start making money and if they go bankrupt they can use it anyhow. Towns with too much inventory have a lot of half built, crap foreclosed dirt cheap houses for sale. If you knocked them all down and put grass in their place prices would go up.
Sean Says:
April 4th, 2008 at 9:52 am
re: (174) John
So you are saying the Fed, State and the municipalites should give the builders tax credits because they overestimated demand?
If you missed the CNBC fast money comment last night while they had Ira Hovnanian on the show, Karen Finerman called the proposed tax rebate a discount for the crack heads!
Let the builders go under, they are a service that is no longer needed.
For Ara Hovnanian:
Satan, Your Kingdom Must Come Down (traditional)
Satan, your kingdom must come down
Satan, your kingdom must come down
I heard the voice of Jesus say
Satan, your kingdom must come down
Gonna pray until they tear your kingdom down
Gonna pray until they tear your kingdom down
I heard the voice of Jesus say
Satan, your kingdom must come down
Gonna shout until they tear your kingdom down
Gonna shout until they tear your kingdom down
I heard the voice of Jesus say
Satan, your kingdom must come down
Hehe (181):
“as there’s little or no ipo/m&a activity.”
You’re telling me? I’m the one who works at a financial printer. In my nine years in the industry, I have never witnessed such a dramatic slowdown in transactional business.
Of course the talking heads are all predicting a 2nd half of 2008 recovery. Based on what?
They got me!
Clot,
You better tame the foreclosure parties, the fuzz got wise…
Police charge 21 teens with trashing summer homes
Sea Isle City police accused 21 teenagers of trashing three vacant summer homes with roving parties in the offseason.
The teens, who range in age from 14 to 18, would party and leave a mess in the morning, including about $35,000 in damage at one home, police said.
The parties took place over several months because there are few people in the Cape May County resort.
One homeowner became suspicious when he started receiving electric bills. Another homeowner told The Press of Atlantic City her house had been used for “alcohol, drugs and sex.”
“alcohol, drugs and sex.”
I always thought that was the reason you owned a beach house..
In calling out apropos songs, what about “Burning Down the House”
great charts as always. most revealing is the sales pace which continues to tank.
“Karen Finerman called the proposed tax rebate a discount for the crack heads!”
Sean/HEHE,
It was classic. She drilled hov.
Grim - two comments in moderation 189 and 190, they are duplicates, I think the word medicine is caught in your spam filter.
112 Mikeinwaiting
I have dealt with Ruhi Maker and Faith Schwartz in the past. Did not think counseling was their thing so I am not surprised that they aren’t making much headway.
Also, they have thrown some bombs at banks in the past (I had to read and respond to their missives), so the bankers are likely a bit on the defensive when it is them across the table.
THE SONG for the current bubble is, by the B-52s: Deadbeat Club
#169 - Grim:
I don’t know anything about the house or it’s history. I rode by it on my bike one day and looked it up and have been following it ever since.
Clot–I am leaving for Chapel Hill this morning. We got an email about keeping our store safe if UNC should win and additional emergency phone numbers. They said to expect 50,000+ people on Monday night. It isn’t exactly the rioting type of town, but you never know. GO HEELS!
“I’m all for housing prices coming down to more realistic levels, but I’ve realized for it to get there things have to get really depressing. How do you guys stay so chipper w/ all this gloom and doom in the markets, in the food aisles, on the unemployment line, etc”
(1) I am good at budgeting and simply cut back on consumption to stay within budget
(2) Don’t think I’ll lose my job, but if I do I feel confident I’ll land somewhere else
(3) every month that house prices collapse, it’s like someone just handed me $10,000
BC Bob - any comment on post 80?
My opinion is the powers that be, the Gov’t and the banking cabal are going to want to make an example of one of the hedgies.
Paulson[John] may have Greenspan as an advisor but I don’t think he is too well liked down in DC anymore or on Wall St.
REM - It’s The End Of The World As We Know It.
How appropriate - My first cousin back in the very early 1980s purchased a tax lien NYC brownstone in Carrol Gardens for 40K and the damm B-52s deadbeats tennants were on the main floor. She had to evict them after she won the house at the NYC tax auction.
They shortly afterwards had a monster album but the B-52s really are deadbeats.
Songs? Try one of mine…it’s called ENDLESS GOODBYE
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=p-y9UGai-ic
192 skep
Agree
Great addition by grim
BC,
Keep an eye on those stacks of resumes, we don’t want an accident.
From Businessweek:
Bear Stearns Rescinds Job Offers
The phone calls they’ve been dreading began coming in yesterday. Business school students with job offers from Bear Stearns started to hear that their summer internships and full-time associate positions with the battered financial firm were gone.
What has me unsettled is that, rather than looking to fundamentals, what seems to be holding the market up, as it were, is a hope that everything bad is now or soon will be over and we can get back to making huge profits without any particular talent or effort. Every last little non-negative bit of news is taken as an excuse to bid-up the market, and significant bad news has a shelf life of a day or less, regardless of hoe substantial. It is like a spouse who, despite all evidence, that his or her spouse is unfaithful and a louse plays up every non-negative sign and ignores the foundation cracking actions. Where is there any solid data to support the recent rally, such as it is? We are in debt to our eyeballs, our currency is tanking, consumers are tapped out or in the hole, yadda, yadda. This is not an economic sniffle; we are very ill and it will take a lot of time to get our economic house in order. I do not believe for a minute that smart policy makers do not know this and I resent their dishonesty in dealing with the current state of affairs. Where is Teddy Roosevelt when you need him?
Update on 22 Garden Road, Summit–
Disclosure shows termites in the past, termite damage (repaired(?)), all appliances and mechanical at least 10 years old (or older) and some flooding. Bathrooms looked original to the house. Everything was builder grade.
Spouse (who knows a thing or two about this) says 200K worth of renos needed to get it to “summit style.”
Blood in the streets in the town of New Jersey!!!!!!
You guys with short memories back in the late 1970s and early 1980s people were walking away from rental buildings they owned with no mortages!!!!! Did not want to pay RE TAX or upkeep them!!! They would set them on fire for insurance purposes or just start pocketing rent and not paying a dime to keep them up or pay the taxes, heat or water bills. NYC was so stupid back them you could go 10+ years without paying a water bill. Now that is what I want to see again!!!
In the 1978 World Series in one game in the Bronx you can see a slum lord building up in flames right during the game. That is a good indicator of a real estate bottom.
In the 1978 World Series in one game in the Bronx you can see a slum lord building up in flames right during the game. That is a good indicator of a real estate bottom.
Where else can you get historical commentary like this?
#157
holy sh*t– that crazy looking thing is Xanadu? I drove past that a couple of weekends ago (first time in NJ in a while) and thought what the hell is that ridiculous looking thing? what a disaster
How to make money in real estate circular 1982.
Buy a run down horrid rent controlled building for 200K cash and get seller to give you proof you paid 600K, take out fire insurance and burn it to ground and collect 400k. Change status of lot to vacant land and pay $500 a year tax. In 1985 build coop on it and sell them all for 200K each and pocket Three million, wait till 1992 buy back unsold sponsor units for ten cents on the dollar and then in 2006 sell them again to a pile of new suckers, then in 2009 buy back at ten cents on dollar from RTC II, RE is so cycical.
Staying chipper…
Knowing I have cash on hand for a downpayment and I’m not overextended in debt helps. My big worry is I work on Wall Street, so I guess if I can duck the flurry of bullets than all will be well. I still think there are some larger layoffs looming on the street. Chopping has been primarily limited to mortgage and structured credit related businesses. Other areas of the banks/dealers have not been hit as hard yet.
re: Zanadu - I heard the proposed Ferris Wheel will be the biggest one in the world and will be all lit up with a giant neon Pepsi sign on it.
The new Zanadu buildings look like leftover colors from 1970’s appliances.
I guess we get to relieve the 1970s all over again, inflation, bad music, forclosures, and crap cars from detroit.
Sean [200],
It would be typical govt, blame someone else. If I was a hedge fund and one day, all of a sudden, my prime broker would not accept a trade, due to my contra party, I would also short that IB. You answer to your clients. Doesn’t Paulson have a fiduciary responsibility to make that trade? That said, you are right, the ill informed will tag somebody as the
scapegoat.
Everybody lays the blame elsewhere;
Soros is blaming Thatcher and Ronnie for the credit crisis, Bear blames rumors, UBS blames it’s IB division, Hov blames the media, Congress blames Bergabe, Bergabe says FU, rein in your spending, cut out the pork. Everybody should take a step back, watch out for what they step in, and take hold of themselves. Look in the mirror. There are many more acts to play out before the final curtain is dropped.
Clott 146
Don’t look now, but after the boomers check out, the population takes a big dive. Within a generation, we won’t need the already-enormous amount of housing stock that’s currently on hand.
Plus, we already have evidence that the preferred next-generation mode of housing will be in the transit village/European mode.
Clott you nailed it, put ever increasing energy costs on top of that and the suburban mecca that stands now is is about to crumble to the ground. You will still have rural/suburban european type “villages”, but not eh “as far as the eye can see” MCdevelopments…
Sean,
A Xanadu developer (Lloyd Kaplan) had the audacity (arrogance, chutzpah, whatever) to compare the Pepsi Wheel to the Eiffel Tower a few months back.
Wait, it gets better…
“We believe this will be of enormous beauty.”
I wonder if Kaplan was able to keep a straight face when he said that.
#71 I used to work at Schering-Plough. I really liked working there. Will have to touch base with the guys to get the inside scoop.
A pair of those guys I worked with stopped down here to check out the area late 2005 but their wives pulled the I don’t want to move on both of them. I cant think this latest situation will sit well with them thinking they should have over ridden their wifes decision now.
Makes me wonder if Merck is going to pull the trigger and move operations south now. Merck discussed for a while of moving a lot into NC a while back and phasing out NJ positions. Instead they don’t have much more than a data center in Charlotte. It was a minor determining factor for me moving down here. What Merck does several others follow.
This could be the beginning of some major Pharma changes in NJ. If NJ Pharm doesn’t stay then the state is doomed. Corzine better start kissing Pharma butt.
BCBob 150,
Dont forget the other “BOOMER” bomb, how many boomers who are about to retire were depending on their house selling for a bazillion $$$ to fund their retirement??? You are going to have a large number of elderly people who cannot afford to stop working. This is a crisis waiting to happen and in the very near future ( 5+ years?). The government is already broke, SO how are they going to respond? the normal response would be to increase SS or a similar solution, but the population is already taxed to death!. BOOYYAAA may be more right then he thought about calling these people “friskies eaters”
“but the population is already taxed to death!.”
And the money has already been spent. And borrowed. And spent again.
maybe people will grow to love the massive Pepsi sign like the Citgo sign in Boston
kettle [218],
Spot on.
JB [205],
Very troubling to the Gold Coast sellers. How’s their pipeline?
skeptic [220],
My first weekend in school, I almost passed out under the Citgo sign. Just feeling ill, not a drinking binge!
“Dont forget the other “BOOMER” bomb, how many boomers who are about to retire were depending on their house selling for a bazillion $$$ to fund their retirement???”
This is why people who have owned their homes for 20 yrs are stubbornly holding out for ridiculous prices. My question is how many of them will just take a reduced price vs not sell.
How’s their pipeline?
Bombed by insurgents
“In the 1978 World Series in one game in the Bronx you can see a slum lord building up in flames right during the game.”
Actually, that was just an accident that occurred because Nettles’s glove was so hot that series.
Kettle, are you a writer for the Reckoning?
“Across the nation, repossession filings are up 93% from last year. And as we saw yesterday, food stamps are up big time. But there really aren’t any “stamps” any more. Now, the food comes via plastic, a type of credit card that can be used - theoretically - only for buying food. In practice, nice shopkeepers in bad neighborhoods take the card and give back cash at steep discount. Say a $10 charge for 7 bucks worth of cash to buy life’s real necessities - liquor, cigarettes and gas.”
“It’s all going according to plan, as we see it. The empire is rolling over. Now, in its advanced, decadent phase, the imperial government must provide bread - in the form of plastic food stamps…and circuses - in the form of national party conventions, elections and foreign wars. The combination settles the public…and distracts them. They become docile, subservient, willing to stand in line to protect themselves from make-believe threats …and ready to put up with any nonsense, no matter how grotesque, absurd or faithless.”
http://dailyreckoning.com/
Grim,
Great charts. Could you add one that shows prices?
re: (214) BC Bob,
Why not blame Canada?
Fairfax Financial Holdings and Prem Watsa made a bundle shorting subprime.
NEW YORK (CNNMoney.com) — An influential member of the Federal Reserve said that the U.S. economy “has all but stalled” and could shrink over the first half of the year, the latest warning sign of a recession from a central bank official.
In a speech late Thursday, San Francisco Federal Reserve President Janet Yellen also warned that “economic prospects remain unusually uncertain,” and said the Fed must be ready to act in a timely manner to try to spur the economy and keep it out of a recession.
Yellen is not a member of the Fed’s rate-setting body, the Federal Open Market Committee, but she is considered an influential member of the central bank.
I’m trying to track down Delievered Vacant, a documentary about how many suspicious fires in Hoboken from the late 70s into the early 90s cleared the way for the city’s yuppification. It’s not on Netflix. Hoboken was known as Arson City for a while. Has anyone here seen the movie?
No problem.
227 pretorius
In case you missed it, here’s the first sentence of the post above: “Preliminary March sales and inventory data for Northern New Jersey is in.”
Hence, the charts address sales and inventory.
I’m sure that, when new information about prices comes in, we’ll discuss that, too.
Sorry if the charts make you feel uncomfortable.
jmac,
You’ll need to call the producer and schedule a screening. It has been on my list of things to do for months now. You’ll also need to get in touch with a local library or school to host the screening. The film was never released to the public.
I’d love to run a screening on the Gold Coast.
$10 a ticket, donate the proceeds to a local affordable housing charity.
A huge Ferris wheel over the Meadowlands? WTF?
#222
“My first weekend in school, I almost passed out under the Citgo sign. Just feeling ill, not a drinking binge!”
Bob– Riiight… I’m very familiar with the BC ‘illness’ that causes people to pass out in random places. Used to visit my wife (then girlfriend) almost every weekend when she was living in Boston. Almost always a couple of BC kids passed out on the T on a Friday night (not that I was much better)
Pret:
Here’s your chart…
http://tinyurl.com/5qsnpl
Re Pharma in NJ
Only rumors and whispers, but as i have said before the word from on high in the world of NJ pharma is that no new operations will come here. Current operations will stay until moving that operation out is cheaper and the second that happens the operation is gone! PHARMA IS DEAD IN NJ. NJ is the guy who just got shot through the heart but hasnt looked down and realized it yet.
There will always be some amount of pharma in NJ, but the larger operations are out the door, its just a matter of time. This is already incorporated into various pharma’s offical strategic plans.
skep [235],
LOL! Memories, Mary Ann’s.
Shore Guy Says:
April 4th, 2008 at 10:21 am
THE SONG for the current bubble is, by the B-52s: Deadbeat Club
How about something from the master of gloom….
A Pain That I’m Used To
Songwriter: Martin L. Gore
I’m not sure
What I’m looking for anymore
I just know
That I’m harder to console
I don’t see who I’m trying to be
Instead of me
But the key
Is a question of control
Can you say
What you’re trying to play anyway
I just pay
While you’re breaking all the rules
All the signs that I find
Have been underlined
Devils thrive on the drive
That is fuelled
All this running around
Well it’s getting me down
Just give me a pain that I’m used to
I don’t need to believe
All the dreams you conceive
You just need to achieve
Something that rings true
There’s a hole in your soul
Like an animal
With no conscience
Repentance unknown
Close your eyes
Pay the price for your paradise
Devils feed on the seeds
That are sown
Can’t conceal what I feel
What I know is real
No mistaking the faking
I care
With a prayer in the air
I will leave it there
On a note full of hope
Not despair
All this running around
Well it’s getting me down
Just give me a pain that I’m used to
I don’t need to believe
All the dreams you conceive
You just need to achieve
Something that rings true
jmacdaddio Says:
“April 4th, 2008 at 11:01 am
I’m trying to track down Delievered Vacant, a documentary about how many suspicious fires in Hoboken from the late 70s into the early 90s cleared the way for the city’s yuppification. It’s not on Netflix. Hoboken was known as Arson City for a while. Has anyone here seen the movie?”
I watched it when I was at Rutgers. Maybe you can get a copy thru them.
Open question is who set the fires. Landlords are blamed, but very likely that most Hoboken arsons at that time were done by careless kids burning down their own homes.
Skeptic 223
Boomers who refuse to sell and hold the home are bigger losers then those who slash prices and sell now. I have seen it first hand, an older couple cannot get the price they want so sit in the house, the house deteriorates as they cannot keep it up. medical costs rise, taxes rise, food expenses rise. You become unable to climb the stairs anymore so rarely if ever go upstairs in your 2 flr CHC. Eventually you are forced to sell and now that the home has deteriorated and the market has spontaneously combusted they are going to get pennies on the dollar and become the next friskies eaters.
BC Bob Says:
April 4th, 2008 at 10:17 am
“Karen Finerman called the proposed tax rebate a discount for the crack heads!”
Sean/HEHE,
It was classic. She drilled hov.
http://www.cnbc.com/id/23944215
Time for a few more posts. Taking a few days off work before shipping out. Getting back to the two questions I just saw from Wednesday-
No…not Iraq…yet.
Yes…reserves.
Going to the OK, TX and NY. Then back to drilling stateside for a while. It’ll be a welcome break from the “day job.”
243 par
shwoo.
230 Jmac,
http://www.offthegridproductions.com/pages/films/vacant.html
is this what you are looking for?
Blodbath in Winter 2007 Says:
April 3rd, 2008 at 9:57 pm
Regarding TJ’s interesting 6%..
For the most part, most houses in NJ were last upgraded in 1970.
My calculation really can’t apply to additions and major upgrades.
If there were upgrades, most of them happened in the past 5 years and those people think the $15,000 investment in a kitchen = 50K ROI. Too much Home and Garden Channel math.
Anyway, I ran into a few of those and did not like any of the choices. Either overpriced or not my style (i.e. Rustic Italian Cafe)
Pretorios - I can guarantee a chart of prices would tell a very different story than sales. The reason there’s so much inventory is that no one is lowering their price.
Check out MLS# 2503311
The owner bought last year, and now wants 30 pct more!
Sales won’t recover till prices fall.
http://cosmos.bcst.yahoo.com/up/player/popup/?rn=3906861&cl=7261617&ch=4226713&src=news
That case I told you about last month in Staten Island that the judge threw out the foreclosure due to predatory lending in the news tonight.
If you just look at he couple you would know that they’re from Staten Island.
njpatient - Vet?
“Open question is who set the fires. Landlords are blamed, but very likely that most Hoboken arsons at that time were done by careless kids burning down their own homes.”
Hoboken kids tended to be careless in the 70s and 80s. Now, they’re not.
One of the many unsung reasons for the New Paradigm.
249 par
No, I don’t have that distinction.
Are there any good rental sites for NJ, besides Craigslist, for no-fee rentals?
#250 njpatient: I could not even begin to bring myself to respond to that post. It is just too tiring.
248 make
It’s the usual slob story. They made less than 30K and bought a 350K house.
I keep seeing the slob stories in the NY Times, on Dateline, on Good Morning America and and 60 Minutes.
I have never once heard the reporter ask the obvious question: “Why did you buy a house that you can’t afford?”
par
can i ask what type of unit you are with, or what unit?
Pre,
NJAR q4 price tables added, working on your graph.
251 njp - ahhh…ok.
Pret
I understand that a big reason why careless kids no longer burn down apartment buildings in Hoboken could result from fewer kids living there as the town yuppified. Also fewer adults smoke now than 20 years ago, so fewer smokers = less access to matches and lighters for children. Plus improvements like sprinklers, etc. have helped. There will always be some kids somewhere who manage to burn down something, and it is a tragedy when it happens.
Despite all this, look at who benefits when an apartment building with a handful of stubborn rent-controlled tenants goes up in flames. I find it hard to believe that any more than a small percentage of Hoboken fires could be pinned on careless kids.
Pre,
Ok, your graph is added as well.
clott,
Here is what the inside of your favorite ride looks like….
http://www.globalsecurity.org/military/systems/ground/m1a2-pics.htm
In reference to your leather appointed M1 abrams
Looking in Chicago. Responsibility, “You are expected to show up”. You can’t make this up.
Earn while you learn!!!
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We will teach you what you need to recognize this.
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Some of the mentors you will learn from literally have hundreds of deals on their desk for consideration every day. Organization keeps it profitable.
Efficiency is important for fast transactions. Come to the table organized and leave profitable.
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Owners burned them down. Heck even Peter Lugars back in the day arsoned their Great Neck location for fun and profit.
Burning a large building to the ground requires a little more skill then a pack of matches.
245 Kettle - thanks, that’s the one! Looks like it’ll be a pain to get a screening - too bad I freecycled my VCR and they don’t seem to have it on DVD.
Regarding pharma, my employer has flat-out said they are done expanding operations in NJ. New growth will be through outsourcing providers in India. Scientists here will become project managers and liasions. I don’t think the state will attempt anything until the last moving van heads south on the Turnpike.
#241
“an older couple cannot get the price they want so sit in the house, the house deteriorates as they cannot keep it up. medical costs rise, taxes rise, food expenses rise. You become unable to climb the stairs anymore so rarely if ever go upstairs in your 2 flr CHC. Eventually you are forced to sell and now that the home has deteriorated and the market has spontaneously combusted they are going to get pennies on the dollar and become the next friskies eaters.”
I think you just described about 50 million people 10 yrs from now
john 262
Gas leaks ignited by a stray spark ( from a light fixture perhaps or furnace) can be very effective at razing a building. Just make sure no one is in it.
(just a joke)
Pret - This one’s for you
http://www.nytimes.com/2008/04/02/nyregion/02prices.html?ei=5087&em=&en=bf9fec46c84ef673&ex=1207454400&pagewanted=print
April 2, 2008
Manhattan Apartment Prices Hit Record High
By CHRISTINE HAUGHNEY
While most of the nation plods through a housing slowdown, Manhattan is experiencing its highest prices in history.
The average price of a Manhattan apartment in the first three months of this year was $1.7 million, up 33.5 percent from the same period last year, according to the real estate appraisal firm Miller Samuel Inc., which processed the numbers for the brokerage firm Prudential Douglas Elliman.
But the record prices do not tell the entire story of Manhattan’s real estate. Although prices are rising, sales are slowing, and executives of the four largest brokerage firms in Manhattan said they see some trouble, though not disaster, ahead for Manhattan’s real estate.
The huge price increase reflects the sale of an unusually large number of very expensive apartments, which skewed the average. In this year’s first quarter, 71 apartments sold for more than $10 million, compared with 17 apartments in that range for all of 2007. This year’s first quarter also included the sale of dozens of apartments at the extremely high-priced 15 Central Park West and the Plaza Hotel.
A number of brokerage firms released data about the first quarter that generally showed the same trends. All showed that the median price of an apartment grew. According to Miller Samuel, it was up to $917,000 from $840,000, suggesting high prices for many types of apartments.
The median price for studios rose by 22 percent, to $490,000 from $401,000; and the median price for one-bedroom apartments grew by 12 percent, to $750,000 from $669,000, according to the Corcoran Group, a real estate brokerage firm.
The firms disagree, however, on the extent of the slowdown in sales in the first quarter. According to Prudential Douglas Elliman, the number of sales fell by 34 percent in the first quarter, to 2,282 apartments from 3,474 last year. Data analyzed by Brown Harris Stevens and Halstead Property showed a 1 percent drop in sales. Corcoran also said it saw a slight drop.
No one disputes the fact, however, that inventory is rising, and after a wave of bad news in the financial world, a crucial underpinning of New York’s economy, fewer buyers are signing contracts. “We’re starting to see a hesitancy in the marketplace,” said Diane M. Ramirez, the president of Halstead. “What I look at very carefully is the signed contracts, the deals that are coming to us right now. I’m starting to see a slowdown.”
So far, wealthy Wall Street executives and foreign buyers have stayed in the market, paying record prices in a range of buildings. The high average price of Manhattan apartments reflects the popularity of luxury condos. The average price of a co-op rose to $1.3 million in the first quarter of this year from $996,000 last year, and the average price of a condo rose to $1.9 million from $1.3 million during the same period, according to Halstead. Corcoran and Prudential Douglas Elliman reported similar figures.
The value of a co-op with four or more bedrooms rose an average of 86 percent this past quarter, to $12.9 million from $6.9 million the year before, according to Halstead.
The rising prices are not just concentrated among Thurston Howell III types who want to live near Central Park. Apartments in less expensive areas like Inwood, Harlem and Hudson Heights also saw price increases, according to Halstead’s data. The average price of a studio rose by 2 percent, one- and two- bedroom apartments by 9 percent and three-bedroom apartments by 57 percent, according to Halstead.
Gregory J. Heym, an economist who prepared the reports for Halstead and Brown Harris Stevens, said that in Harlem, prices rose in new condo projects like the one at 111 Central Park North. In Inwood and Hudson Heights, the prices of co-ops increased.
“In Inwood and Hudson Heights, that just shows you it’s a decent resale market,” he said.
Contrary to the trend in Manhattan, in Brooklyn, overall prices have started to drop. Median and average sale prices dropped by 2 percent in the first quarter of this year, according to data tracked by the Corcoran Group. Median prices in Brooklyn dipped to $549,000 from $560,000, according to the data. Pamela Liebman, president of the Corcoran Group, said this pattern was typical of any slowdown. “When buyers become more cautious, the first markets to feel it are those that have been considered to be emerging neighborhoods,” Ms. Liebman said.
All five boroughs are also facing an escalating number of foreclosures. The number jumped by 65.7 percent, to 918 foreclosures in the first quarter of this year, compared with 554 during the same time last year, according to PropertyShark.com, a real estate data company based in Brooklyn.
The numbers make up a small percentage of New York City’s three million households, according to PropertyShark.com. The foreclosures are concentrated in Queens neighborhoods like Jamaica and Howard Beach, and Staten Island’s Mid-Island and North Island.
Brokers are not as optimistic, however, about the next few quarters in Manhattan. Sales in the first quarter were strong in part because nearly a third of the apartments that closed were for condos that buyers signed contracts for at least a year ago, according to data tracked by Brown Harris Stevens and Halstead.
Now buyers have more choices, with an inventory of 6,194 apartments compared with 5,923 at this time last year, according to Prudential Douglas Elliman. The brokerage firms reported that the number of buyers who went to contract in the first quarter was far lower compared with buyers last year.
Hall F. Willkie, the president of Brown Harris Stevens, said that in the first quarter, the number of contracts signed in Manhattan fell by 21 percent even though the average price rose by 3 percent.
Ms. Liebman said she had fielded calls from several Bear Stearns executives wanting to sell their apartments in the wake of the buyout of their firm. She said that a couple of Bear Stearns executives put their homes on the market.
“Wall Street’s pain is definitely real,” she said. “We will see less transactions, but stable prices.”
But while the brokerage firms say prices may eventually decline, they do not expect Manhattan’s real estate market to suffer as much as the rest of the nation’s.
“I don’t think you’re going to see the next quarter being the end of the world,” said Dottie Herman, the president of Prudential Douglas Elliman. “You’re going to see a market that’s a lot more conservative, and things are going to be on the market longer.”
255 Kettle - a medical logistics unit.
I’ve heard that Delivered Vacant is not available for viewing in Hoboken because it paints the guy who is the current Mayor in an unflattering light. I of course was under the impression that you first had to be flattering before somebody could show you to be unflattering but apparently I am wrong.
Skeptic 264,
I say that from experience. I have seen that very scenario happen to a family friend. granted it was in memphis, but the same thing can happen to anyone anywhere. ( clott you are from memphis?)
Par
I was w/ 2-102 AR. have been out for a few years though. best of luck to you!
I suppose if hired thugs were careless with kerosene and matches, an apartment building could burn.
I suppose if landlords and developers were careless with envelopes of cash at the fire chief’s office, an suspicious fire could become an accident.
Fort Wadsworth…
206 shore
Amen
235 skep
LOL. I always considered “drunk BC student” to be redundant.
237 Kettle
Agreed. I get a lot of news from inside pharma and I agree that there will be no expansion in NJ, perhaps ever. Those I talk to have nothing good to say about the state and here’s why.
1. Trenton seems to impose a new burden on employers on a weekly basis. Also, no one seems to much trust the new A.G. or the courts.
2. Notwithstanding his pledge not to undercut a [democratic] neighbor, Rendell has quietly seen several new pharma facilities open in eastern PA in the last few years. Whole new facilities, not just relocating jobs to the state. They get the proximity to NJ companies without the grief and their employees can afford housing. Expansion is too marked to be happening w/o gov help, such as KOIZ or some other assistance.
3. Other states are also trying aggressively to poach pharma jobs and facilities–Maryland even wanted to create a special court branch along the lines of Del Chancery to siphon off pharma and biotech. NC’s triangle where GSK maintains its co-HQ is also hot (some worry in Phila that GSK could relo everything to RTP, but informed opinion is that they won’t). And let’s not forget Mass. (Boston, Cambridge and 128) where house prices in the burbs outside 128 have tanked already (I was recently there and could not believe how much prices came down in mid-tier communities).
Natives are getting restless;
“81% in Poll Say Nation Is on the Wrong Track”
http://www.nytimes.com/2008/04/04/us/04poll.html?_r=1&ref=business&oref=slogin
It’s the usual slob story.
There is nothing ususal about this as they beat the rap and the loan was deemed predatory. Thy’re still living in a home they can’t afford and they’re not paying a single centin mortgage or rent.
make, #248
That SI couple - they both work, and they have a combined income of less than $30,000 - in New York City????
And the house was 10x their income?
Banks gone wild, for sure.
Amazing how the reporter on the story didn’t question those two points.
BC (194)-
“It was classic. She drilled hov.”
Truth be told, he’s an easy target. Just aim for the oil slick.
Nom [274],
Yet, no classes in window jumping.
Do bars still accompany the windows at the Zoo?
#274
“prices in the burbs outside 128 have tanked already (I was recently there and could not believe how much prices came down in mid-tier communities).”
Nom– same experience. Mass bubble is about 1 yr further along than tri state.
Saw this NAR ad this morning on TV, i almost vomited, and laughed hysterically at the same time
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=gc4BhpGnXCk&feature=related
That SI couple - they both work, and they have a combined income of less than $30,000 - in New York City????
retail!Someone has got to stack those $300 jeans that we are buying.
can be “previewed” through google here
http://www.google.com/search?aq=-1&oq=&num=50&hl=en&rlz=1G1GGLQ_ENUS260&q=youtube+Realtors+%22building+wealth%22+ad+2008&btnG=Search
you can see this version even is work blocks youtube
Rachel (198)-
It IS the rioting type of town…if they make it to the last game. Batten down the hatches, win or lose.
I have personally helped carry several small cars down Franklin St. :)
reporters don’t question the deadbeats because it is an article of faith that every American deserves to own a home, two cars, cellphones, digital cable, plasma tv, eat out thrice weekly, etc. questioning whether someone can afford something is unAmerican
Grim 109
Thanks for that very good point. Keybox showings are running on a banner as if it were proof of the real estate market picking up. Without regard to the inventor or year or year it is worthless information.
I post here not to give information but to get it.
KL
Skeptic,
1 big difference between Mass and NJ is that mass has a solid foundation of pharma, biotech, and startups that provide higer paying employment. What does NJ have???
grim (209)
“Where else can you get historical commentary like this?”
Romania.
#287
“What does NJ have???”
off the top of my head: proximity to two major cities.
Bizarro World -
“Wall Street pulled back and Treasurys rallied following news that the economy gave up 80,000 jobs last month, the biggest loss in five years.”
Skeptic,
Another difference in Mass is that in the boston metro area and outer Burbs, the local population have consistently shot down extensive development despite the local towns pushing for it. Some of the towns are now cutting services and basically saying ” well we wouldnt have to do this if you had let the developers come in and build Mcmansions”, ” we hope all your tree’s and local town ambiance was worth it”. Up there the local population has actually stood up to the towns and to the developers somewhat.
BC,
Said in the last thread, no bars while I was there or on any subsequent visits in the years following. Recent grads say that it is about as big a “party school” now as Oral Roberts (ouch) due to the admin’s efforts to cast off the 70’s image. See that you are still SITS, though.
Found Cleveland Circle to be more of a Zoo than UMass. Never saw muggings or mass wanton vandalism in Amherst, and the only brawl I got into there was with some kids that decided to take a road trip from (wait for it) BC!!! And I gotta say, 5 on 1 isn’t fair where I’m from. That what they teach you at the Heights???
In fact, a lot of trouble that makes the news in Boston (reported by BC, BU, and Emerson grads) doesn’t involve students, but louts that make road trips to Amherst (and yes, despite Shaughnessy’s protestations to the contrary, there is a conspiracy on Morrissey Blvd). And being a state institution, they can’t cover things up like the Jesuits can. Not that the priests ever covered anything up, heavens no.
Load up for Round 2, I already have a round chambered.
# skep-tic Says:
April 4th, 2008 at 12:32 pm
#287
“What does NJ have???”
off the top of my head: proximity to two major cities.
Skeptic, that reeks of the classic, “but we cant fall we are close to NYC/Philly”.
These cities do have an effect, but they will not save NJ nor can the act as the primary employer for any significant % of the state
#274 The only problem is RTP has transit problems. They need to move a lot faster with their road expansions and approve the train system already. Too many good ole boys there looking for a payout.
PA will most probably grab a good chunk of Big Pharma away from NJ.
Aventis I think would stay put after their 2005 purchase of the AT&T facility and Pfizer would probably keep most of thier HQ in NJ but they have the money to change thier minds too.
#291
“in the boston metro area and outer Burbs, the local population have consistently shot down extensive development despite the local towns pushing for it.”
depends on the town. there a lot of new construction south of Boston and in the outer western suburbs.
I saw Delivered Vacant a few years after I moved out of Hoboken in 1990. It was powerful, and “careless kids” is ridiculous.
I moved back to Hoboken and people were voicing the same complaints as when I left. Too many Yuppies, overbuilding, infrastructure can’t handle it…they were right both times, but the second time I lived there I was too old to be a yuppie.
Mitchell,
I do not think aventis is a guarantee, heard some rumblings from there, could be the usual BS though. Aventis has had some unexpected competition in the market recently.
SKeptic,
Boston has definitely had its share of construction, but not to the degree that NJ has had. The developers own NJ. They actually had to try to get deals through in boston. Also, a lost of the building was actually a shift of people from the suburbs north of boston into southern NH
make,
The reporter should have asked whether it was a stated income loan, and if so, what was the stated income on the mortgage app.
Also, the grounds on which the judge found violations of NYS banking laws.
Nom,
Very comical. I guess the Zoo is sedated.
#297
“Boston has definitely had its share of construction, but not to the degree that NJ has had.”
I will take your word for it as I am not familiar with what’s happened in NJ. Compared to Westchester and southern CT (which I am more familiar with), the Boston suburbs seem to have a lot of new developments
Clott, are you familiar w/ boston at all?
From my experience it seems that there has been similar “migration” of neighborhoods in the boston area recently as what has been going on in Memphis for a while. Once to many people not part of the “local elite” move into an area, the neighborhood tends to shift to a new location, and the “new people” replace those that left. One difference is that it doesnt seems to be so much race based as class based in the boston area
richnj/grim: If one of you guys get a chance, can you pelase get me the sales hsitory on njmls 2812460, and 2813586. Thanks.
Mass and NJ are apples and oranges. Boston = a town. NYC = the center of the universe. Proximity to NYC is critical to real estate values, hence the reason NJ “train” town RE values are still very strong.
Thanks for the additional data, pret.
Muni Bonds less than Par !!
Just got a call from my broker from a “reputable” IB. Was informed that the muni bonds they put me in were still ill-liquid. And got an - “oh by the way”. Since they are ill-liquid, the SEC is making us value them on the March statement and dont be suprised to see a range of .80 to .95 cents on the dollar. Beauitiful…
These same as cash investments aint same as cash…….
Next call was to my attorney…….
some on this board my find this book interesting
http://www.amazon.com/dp/0805087281/ref=nosim/?tag=nationbooks08-20
You gotta watch my boy Peter Schiff dismantle and abuse this dumb tour guide realtor they put in front of him.
That people like her can make a great living in RE goes to show you how valuable they are in the transaction.
even cavuto says” this is your business” like shoudn’t you have to know this?
http://housingpanic.blogspot.com/2008/04/peter-schiff-on-fox-schooling-yet.html
Thanks for the additional data, pret.
I like it too, it really helps to understand those indicies when you see them plotted together.
good luck, potter.
Oh, and which one of you glommers did this one?
http://www.cnn.com/2008/LIVING/wayoflife/04/03/frugal.strategies.ap/index.html
You’re funny. Ha Ha.
“Annette and Steve Economides of Scottsdale, Arizona, try to live the life they describe in their book, “America’s Cheapest Family Gets you Right on the Money.”
Economides.
Hi,
I know this is a jersey site, but my sister in PA is considering buying, and I was wondering if someone could tell me how long this house has been on the market:
Listing #299397
(1130 East Highland Street, Allentown PA 18109)
Thanks!
Mr. Potter,
I’m sorry about your Muni meter experience. Please do yourself a favor and get your money out of this subprime country and as far away from USD as possible.
Can you not see the writting on the wall. Lies Lies Lies. Inflation is their best friend.
311 make money
I did however drop an F bomb on the guy when he told me that there is good news. In that they will lend me money against them at 3%. What a set of balls!
pat #(309),
I wish I would have married her. I just forwarded this article to my wife but I’ll bet anything she won’t read it.
Hmmm..at 3% take it and buy a swiss CD that offers more+currency appreciation.
Anybody, have any predictions when we can expect manhattan prices to start dropping? I’m looking to buy a 1 bedroom and I feel like I’ve been waiting forever.
#266
A number of brokerage firms released data about the first quarter that generally showed the same trends. All showed that the median price of an apartment grew. According to Miller Samuel, it was up to $917,000 from $840,000, suggesting high prices for many types of apartments.
The median price for studios rose by 22 percent, to $490,000 from $401,000; and the median price for one-bedroom apartments grew by 12 percent, to $750,000 from $669,000, according to the Corcoran Group, a real estate brokerage firm.
Investor calls for UBS break-up
Swiss financial giant UBS has come under new pressure from a former chief executive who wants to meet the board to discuss a break-up of the group.
Luqman Arnold, who runs the UK-based investment fund Olivant, is also seeking an overhaul of corporate governance and risk controls at UBS.
The proposals come after UBS said that its sub-prime writedowns have more than doubled to about $37bn (£18.5bn).
He criticised the bank’s new chairman Peter Kurer, a 58-year-old Swiss lawyer who has spent the last seven years as the bank’s main legal adviser.
He said Mr Kurer lacked “proven strategic, risk management and communications skills” and questioned whether he was the “best possible solution” to be elevated to management at this time.
“UBS’s reputation has been comprehensively destroyed by proprietary trading activities totally divorced from any client business,” said Mr Arnold.
http://news.bbc.co.uk/2/hi/business/7329866.stm
# 275 ““81% in Poll Say Nation Is on the Wrong Track” ”
AND plan to reelect darned near EVERY single official running for reelection from Congress to dog catcher. Humm, I wonder if things will change.
re: (316)
A friend of mine just took a job at UBS this week is Secaucus. I warned him but he took the job anyway.
I have a UBS account, and I moved money out of it, not that they are going to go under but their service is severly lacking.
#297 Aventis
I think their EU operations like to talk a big game hoping that it will keep the Bridgewater facility on its toes.
299 BC
I was going for sarcastic.
#303 Thats the only thing going good for NJ is NY is holding but NY is starting to show a lot of cracks and the foundation is starting to turn to sand. When it finally starts to crumble it will be game over.
Any wagers on who is going to be the new Enron? Could be a lot to choose from.
# 237 Kettle1..my brother works in engineering/robotis with a pharma co in CT. I asked him over Easter how work was going..not so good. He will be out of job in 2 or 2 1/2 years as they are moving production to India. He thinks he will stick it our for the severance and their last child will be out of college of 2010 so that is a factor as well.
that is robotics..I really can spell. think i just type too fast here
#307. “Real Estate Guru”, I thought Guru’s are supposed to know what they are talking about!
NY will crack soon, the William Beaver House downtown is almost up and is a gigantic empty monster, the Asiate and 25 Broad condos near me get no traffic in the sales office, they are throwing like a thousand new units on the market in the next 12 months down in the wall street area. Meanwhile the only BD making money downtown is Goldman and they are moving people over to Jersey or up by WTC when they are done so most of those folks would not to buy down by broad and water anyhow.
Sounds like just desserts to me!!!! Guy makes robots that eliminate peoples jobs gets outsourced.
House Hunter Says:
April 4th, 2008 at 1:31 pm
# 237 Kettle1..my brother works in engineering/robotis with a pharma co in CT. I asked him over Easter how work was going..not so good. He will be out of job in 2 or 2 1/2 years as they are moving production to India. He thinks he will stick it our for the severance and their last child will be out of college of 2010 so that is a factor as well.
I wouldn’t bet on India for much longer especially with Russia and Brazil outsourcing on the rise. India is starting to look overpriced to some groups. India outsourcing will still grow but competition from other area is starting to take shape and model the way India took a lot of jobs.
Some things are a world market. Pretty soon we will outsource to the nigerian e-mail scam artists.
#325 john; And don’t forget 20 Pine St,and 100 Wall.
#324 Secondary Market
If you watch A&E you will find a GURU is usually someone who is a scam artist. Someone slightly smarter than the area intelligence where they are bilking people out of their money with fake rituals feeding on people’s spiritual beliefs.
When the market really collapses buy stock in religion, cigarettes, and alcohol.
#305 mr potter. It must be UBS, as they announced that last weekend. contact ww.finra.org (formerly NASD, and file a customer comlaint)
#303 Imus: Keep telling yourself that , and make sure you click your heels while repeating it.
Mitchell,
My understabnding is that AFrica is expected to be the big ooutsourcing location in about 10 years and in the interim south east asia, eastern europe are the big locations. One thing to note, is that in soe filed like biotech outsourcing in easier said then done, you nedd a well trained staff and advanced facilities. Both southeast aisa and india have been pumping a lot of money into this. SO while things like service centers and low level m,anufacturing may start to leave india, things like pharma and biotech will stay around much longer. As even with increased local costs, biotech in india or SEA is still more profitable then europe of north america. Several of the larger biotechs have already written this into their long term plans. for example wyeth plans on shutting down at least one US site in the next 5 - 8 years due to overseas competition forcing them to move manufacturing out of the US and Europe.
#332 Kettle1 I don’t doubt it for a second.
“Former Nigerian E-mail scam artist now head executive of manufacturing in Africa”
284 clot/Rachel
Saw a vanity licence plate in the parking lot of the Little Patients’ school this morning that put youse guys in mind: GOHEELS
You can guess what color the bumper stickers were.
you know i’ve been meaning to check my nigerian account balance. $5 gazzilion is just so hard to manage these days.
#36 Bairen Said:
“The bursting of the tech bubble took out that POS Mutual Funds magazine.
Will this housing bust take out HGTV? I at least hope it takes out those flipper shows and My house is what worth what?”
“My house is worth what?” is such bunk! Most of the episodes i have seen over the past few months (4-5 episodes) nobody is actually selling anything. Complete speculation as to what the house would sell for.
As for the flipper shows; it would be interesting to see a “where are they now” version of the show. Did all of these people actually sell? Did they have to take a bath during that sale?
One thing i do appreciate that comes out of all of these “how to sell your house” shows is that now they stress how to have your house NOT look like a POS if you wanna sell it. Having seen many many houses as part of my hunt, i have seen some pretty amazing things.
Maybe there is a market now for “home stagers”?
Hmmm…
The local Westfield paper (http://www.goleader.com) has a full page ad from Coldwell Banker with Pictures of 25 Union County Open Houses with “Event Pricing”.
I don’t think I can make them all. I went to an open house 4 months ago (out of my price range - $899) and was told by the agent, that I better hurry or I’d miss out. It was a total renovation, pretty nice, on a great street. They reduced it to 799, then 699, then it disappeared from listings, so I assumed it sold. I just got a realtytrac pre-foreclosure email that listed the same property. But it could never happen in Westfield.
#337 ray:But it could never happen in Westfield.
You mean Brigadoon.
338 3b
If they had put “Brigadoon” in the listing, it would have sold by now.
Powerpoint slide show that to we did not start the fire that does 50 years of american history history in less than 3 minutes!
They should give this to the indian call centers.
Click on this: http://home.uchicago.edu/~yli5/Flash/Fire.
337 RayC
See you at the Trolley!
341 njpatient
Hopefully the Trolley is a place that serves Guinness and not something that requires some kind of Metrocard. I wouldn’t know because I moved to Westfield because we have 1.5 kids - so nightlife usually means watching Blue’s Clues. (Although I did briefly get my son addicted to “School House Rocks DVD”)
#339 yes, magical and mythical.
3b
To ad insult to injury, they bought one of the failed bonds from me that was getting 18% but left me with a handful getting around 6% (tax free). Its not UBS by the way.
This guy is on to something?
“We’ve heard other financial institutions say that they, in fact, can’t truly verify the full value of their securities,” said Sen. Robert Menendez (D-N.J.). “So if we don’t have a valuation of these securities, how are we so confident?”
342 RayC
The Trolley is a great institution, and is even kid-friendly (they have high chairs and crayons) and has lots of Guinness and a quite decent selection of brews overall.
Mitchell Says:
April 4th, 2008 at 12:37 pm
#274 The only problem is RTP has transit problems. They need to move a lot faster with their road expansions and approve the train system already. Too many good ole boys there looking for a payout.
PA will most probably grab a good chunk of Big Pharma away from NJ.
Aventis I think would stay put after their 2005 purchase of the AT&T facility and Pfizer would probably keep most of thier HQ in NJ but they have the money to change thier minds too.
—————————————–
Retard spelling aside…..appreciate the prognostication there Nostradumbass.
#344 mr potter: I suugested UBS, only because I know they were the first to do it, now of course others have as well.
That market unfortunaltely is destroyed now. you should still file a complaint.
#336 Addison
The house flipping shows at least one of them at the very end has an update. The majority either barely made out and stopped flipping or were forced to move into their flip.
What we need now is like you said where are they now? Are they walking away from the flip they were forced to move into? I couldnt understand the million dollar flips because the mid level flips had as much profit potential but with much greater risk.
A few I suspect lost their shirts but they usually don’t show those flips again I noticed.
But I would put that Montilongo guy on a show as he hired all those hooters like girls for a quick party to blow off steam for the construction guys and wound up putting them to work on the job site briefly carrying trash and painting. LOL.
http://www.reuters.com/article/ousiv/idUSN0221593620080404
A small sign of things to come and believe me they are coming.
Get your guns and your pitbulls now while they’re cheap.
#336
LOL Oh well his website looks like it needs to be flipped.
http://neiyerm.armandomontelongo.com/
Most images don’t come up.
I liked his character of all the home flippers.
But I would put that Montilongo guy on a show as he hired all those hooters like girls for a quick party to blow off steam for the construction guys and wound up putting them to work on the job site briefly carrying trash and painting. LOL.
That was a classic. Those bimbo’s didn’t get a dime they all worked for free and to be on TV. Talk about cheap labor.
Mitchell(327),
Our costs in India have gone up 30% since last year. We used to accept sub-standard work because it was cheap but we’re reconsidering our options.
I’m sure others have had positive experiences with their offshore resources. However in the eight years I’ve worked with offshore developers and support staff…they have all been sub-par.
3B (302),
2812460
No NJMLS listing history or tax record history
Taxes: $7,159.50 50×100
2813586
No NJMLS listing history or tax record history
Taxes: $9,501.60 75×100
Both look to be estate sales
#347 Essex
I give you props for the Retard spelling aside…..appreciate the prognostication there Nostradumbass comment for being imaginative but I didn’t realize we were being graded?
Take your chill pill before the weekend starts there grammar police. There are other people who want to get home safe on the parkway and don’t need you driving like an angry jersey guy. Your fantasy ferris wheel of enlightenment will be built soon enough.
#354 Thanks Rich Could I trouble you for the addresses? Sorry.
vodka (301)-
I do have a passing knowledge of Boston, based on some market research I did when I was doing restaurants (Boston, BTW, is the worst big city restaurant scene on Earth; nobody there can cook).
Anyway, it’s always seemed to me that race is an ENORMOUS factor in Boston. Look at the reaction to public school desegregation and the introduction of busing. Way worse violence & resistance in Boston than in any Southern city.
I got served a lobster a Locke-Ober in Boston that looked and tasted like Carlton Fisk’s catcher’s mitt. Probably just as old, too.
Still remember that meal…and thankful I wasn’t doing yoga on porcelain that night.
make [350],
“A spike in the price of rice and other food staples is triggering consumer panic, including food riots in Yemen and Morocco, and hoarding in Hong Kong.”
“Governments around the world have taken radical measures in recent weeks to control their countries’ supplies of rice. Egypt last week said it would ban all rice exports for six months. Cambodia has stopped all private-sector exports of rice, and India and Vietnam also have imposed restrictions.”
http://www.washingtonpost.com/wp-dyn/content/article/2008/04/03/AR2008040304054.html
potty (305)-
How were these securities described in the prospectus?
#B (356),
No problem
2812460 744 7TH AVE
2813586 171 BOGERT RD
357 clot
Not sure I’d go as far as your last sentence, but I’ve always had the same impression (granted, I only lived there for a summer and spent a year of weekends visiting Mrs. Patient there before she’d marry me), but it seems to me that I’ve been reading snippets about racial tension in Boston since g*d was a boy.
Clot [357],
Ask Bill Russell.
#353 Similar India outsource cost increases as well with increased negative feedback.
We have some small outsourcing to Russia for low level items and it is getting better feedback. Brazil is still a question mark but costs make you look.
We keep what we can in the US but there is almost an unwritten rule to how much should be outsourced to oversees today. A few too many looking for the bottom line instead of quality. We kind of have a balance.
I pointed out our oversees division never takes a lead on high risk/high profile issues while our TX, NY, and NC guys do. Dont talk of outsourcing more because you blame USA techs if they take a few hours to resolve an issue. At least they are doing something about it instead of pretending the problem doesn’t exist or didn’t see it. This opens them up to exposure while oversees remains quiet. I encouraged them to outsource more because I want to see what happens when oversees actually tries to solve a real issue. Scared the heck out of management and shut them up.
BC (359)-
I have a cousin in Arkansas that has some prime riceland in the flyway, near Stuttgart.
Maybe I should put him back on my Xmas card list…
BC (363)-
Celtics & Sawx didn’t have all those white guys by accident.
#261 Thanks Rich, I will check out the one on 7th if they have an open house this Sunday. Do not like the location of the other one. Thanks again.
347/355
I’ve been waiting for the grammar police to arrest grim for the very opening sentence of this thread.
patient (362)-
Nice day to be talking about racial tension (I still remember where I was 40 years ago today…about 10 blocks from where Dr. King got shot. Boy, did we get home fast.).
I was in school in Memphis when deseg was ordered. 400,000 students, bused all over kingdom come. After Dr. King and all the problems, deseg was a yawner.
Nassau County,Long Island is listed as the most segregated surburb in America. Funny part is no one is complaining on Long Island. What is the purpose of Desegregation? A rich Indian couple living in Hickville which has tons of fantastic Indian restaurants and shops is free to move to Woodmere in Five towns which is all orthodox with Kosher restaurants. Why would he want to and why should he be forced. No wonder they rioted in Boston.
Plus Larry Bird was a great basketball player that is nonsense they drafted him cause he is white.
I think a lot of people look at all of the universities and money managers in Boston and forget that it is mostly a working class city. I don’t think the racism there is worse than the racism you’d find among any community of working class whites. I think people are just surprised because they have this image of Boston as being so enlightened.
Dr. King is lucky he is not around today, that hound dog cheated on his wife left and right, he would have been spitzerfied right out of the pulpit.
“Celtics & Sawx didn’t have all those white guys by accident.”
Clot,
If Jim Rice was Freddie Lynn’s color, there would be a statue of him in Kenmore Square.
#337 ray:But it could never happen in Westfield
Brigadoon shall rise again! We still have Trader Joes!
CLott Patient
I lived up therr for 2 years (boston). I agree that the food sucks for the most part. There are only 1 or 2 decent chinese places in the whole metro area. I have never seen the racial aspect to boston even though i have heard of it. What i saw was more class/money based. if you want to talk about race issues, look at southern NH. A beautiful area with some nice places to live, but it could get uncomfortable if your skin is to dark.
more doom and gloom (from the WSJ):
“The International Maritime Bureau, which tracks piracy, said in its annual report earlier this year that global pirate attacks rose 10% in 2007, marking the first increase in three years.”
360 clot
“Prospectus”??!?!!
If anyone ever reads one of those things, there’s going to be trouble.
374
Steve!
Where’v you been hiding??
355….I’m home…..feet up…..completely relaxed Mitch. But we both know you are mentally challenged.
379. No offense to the mentally challenged.
373 BC
Without question.
Sawx were the last team to integrate.
Pumpsie Green, I think.
Brigadoon shall rise again! We still have Trader Joes!
Big deal. So does Wayne and Paramus.
Make Clott BC,
(puts on all knowing all seeing beard, robe and sandals)
Here is how this whole thing is going down. We are entering the plateau portion of peak oil, this means that energy growth no longer keeps up with demand. as a result the first thing to get hit is food production because the majority of the worlds food is directly dependent on oil. As fuel prices rise we see people try to shift demand to bio-fuels ( bad idea, would you rather eat or drive?) This means that people are now competing with the energy market for food. As a result or increasing energy scarcity and decreased food exports, countries are /will curtail both food and energy exports. The two main players who have potential in this market are the energy exporters and the food exporters. if you do not have one of those 2 you are hosed. (google for export land model).
what does this mean? people/countries dependent on food aid will soon see massive starvation, fodd prices will contiue to increase and the airlines are dead men walking.. This is the tip of the ice berg.
This is not financial advice, just my personal musings, but you may be able to make a killing buy buying a stake in thai rice exports! look at asian rice demand and how many countries are banning exports. Thailand may be one of the stronger food economies in the region. remember i know nothing about investing!
re: (376) skep-tic
“global pirate attacks rose 10% in 2007″
10% growth,damm I am in the wrong business. It may be time to put my sailing skills to real use.
#382 and Paramus.
That is because Paramus is prestigious, it is in Bergen Co, and those who know, know that Bergen Co (all of it) is prestigious.
I think in Boston so called racism in the lower middle class blue collar working man’s white area is more an economic concern. They have seen the block busting and white flight that took place in the 1970’s where real estate values plummited and families that grew up next to each other were forced to relocate all over and sell their houses at a big loss. These families with a 10 year old car in the driveway a christmas club account and a small union pension to look forward to have all their actual wealth tied up in their little 40 by 100 starter house and don’t want to be forced to lose their life time of mortgage payments or end up living in a slum behind gated windows in retirement. It is the fear that drives them to be that way. No different than in a thriving african american neighborhood in Brooklyn where the yuppies come in to gentrify and throw the old timers on the street or triple their rent. Either way it makes for a lot of tension.
“We are entering the plateau portion of peak oil”
Ket, I may call you Apocalypse boy, but by the same token I said EXACTLY the words above to a colleague not 20 minutes ago.
I laugh whenever the usual suspects talk about the “speculators”.
Fitch downgrades MBIA..
#379 Essex if your hoping I ask what are you wearing you would be greatly disappointed. I don’t swing that way. But Im glad you not on the parkway taking your anger out on other people.
I’m not quite sure what set you off? Did I not conjugate a vowel?
385 3B
“those who know, know that Bergen Co (all of it) is prestigious.”
That sort of thinking is outdated, 3B. Only the areas near Manhattan are prestigious.
Thread closed..
nj PATIENT,
we are just at the plateau of oil,
natural gas and condensible liquids are another facet. You can also debate wether peak oil+ NG + condensibles are the saem as peak energy or can we shift our energy production to another method and surpass our current energy production. I think we can, from a technical stand point, but i am not sure it will happen from a social stand point. It would require to much long term planning that those in power refuse to do. Even joe shmoe needs to look ahead somewhat but good luck getting a soccer mom to notice this.
I heard an interview on NPR this morning and they were asking PA resident who they might vote for in the Dem primary. One woman complained that the Rep’s had not brought energy prices down and the DEMS could. She is in for a nasty surprise.
Nom’s idea on a “communal” farm/residential plot is ahead of its time