Thu 17 Apr 2008
From the Star Ledger:
Jobless rate holds steady as officials note bad trend
Employment in New Jersey was essentially unchanged in March — even though the nation as a whole lost 80,000 jobs last month, state officials reported yesterday.
New Jersey’s nearly 4 million work force gained 1,000 jobs in March, bringing to 9,700 the number of jobs lost in the first three months of the year — when the nation’s payrolls fell by 232,000.
…
Economist Joseph Seneca of the Bloustein School at Rutgers said, “The state is fully participating in the weak labor market caused by the national recession, and going forward we remain exposed in finance, and in business and professional services connected to the financial sector.”New Jersey gained 1,000 jobs in March, 700 in government and 300 in the private sector. Seneca focuses on private sector employment, which he said declined by 10,500 jobs in the first quarter in New Jersey, while the nation lost 286,000 private sector jobs in the quarter.
Seneca said the rest of the year is likely to be weak. “When the finance sector was booming, it was very beneficial to the region, and now we are likely to experience the obverse of this.”
…
Rae Rosen, senior economist of the Federal Reserve Bank of New York, said while New Jersey is tracking the nation, there are some regional differences. While business and professional services have weakened substantially in New York City, that sector is holding up better in New Jersey so far, Rosen said. The same goes for the education and health sectors, she said. “This is what we are seeing in the data, but we don’t know why.”
April 17th, 2008 at 5:59 am
From the APP:
N.J. labor market was stagnant in March
“I think there’s a definite slowdown in the economy now,” said Matt Deiner, owner of Francis Cable Systems, a Lakewood company that manufactures electrical wiring for commercial and industrial buildings.
The report was released as the economy continues to feel the impact of a downturn in the housing market. The decline has caused homeowners to default on their mortgages, banks to tighten their lending standards and em-ployers to scale back hiring.
The monthly report capped a glum first quarter. New Jersey lost 9,700 jobs and the United States lost 232,000 jobs in that period.
“We’re both heading in the wrong direction,” said James W. Hughes, an economist and dean of the Edward J. Bloustein School of Planning and Public Policy at Rutgers University.
The housing market has been slumping since 2006, when consumers could no longer afford to buy homes. Economists in recent months have worried that the correction is rippling through the economy.
Real-estate agents and mortgage brokers are selling fewer homes. Residents spend less money on new furniture. Banks, trying to recover from loans that soured, have become more cautious about taking on risk.
Taken together, it adds up to tough times. Deiner, for example, said he has noticed commercial and industrial construction falter. To stay afloat, his company has looked overseas, where the weak dollar makes its product more affordable to potential cus-tomers.
Others say they, too, are taking steps to try to stay a step ahead.
“You have to work harder,” said Tracey Rovito, senior loan officer for 1st Metropolitan Mortgage in Wall. “You have to be willing to give extra service to people to get them through (the home-buying process).”
April 17th, 2008 at 6:25 am
From USA Today:
Housing bailout: Helping hand or handout?
Even as home prices jumped earlier in the decade, conservative lenders in Vermont resisted high-cost, exotic loans. Today, as a massive U.S. housing bubble bursts, the state’s mortgage delinquency rate is less than 3%, while values are still stable.
In Nevada over the same period, home buyers gorged on unconventional loans, with 30% of Las Vegas borrowers taking out higher-cost subprime products in 2006. The state’s delinquency rate is above 7%, home prices have plummeted, and in some areas, a majority of borrowers owe more than their homes are worth.
Should taxpayers in Vermont be asked to bail out home buyers in Nevada? The answer now taking shape in Washington appears to be, “Yes.”
“That’s a tough one for most people living up in Vermont to wrap their arms around,” admits Ken Libby, owner of Stowe Realty in Stowe, Vt. “The majority of folks probably would say, ‘Why should Congress be bailing them out?’ “
April 17th, 2008 at 6:27 am
From BusinessWeek:
Housing: Time to Halt Taxpayer Subsidies
Homeownership has long been a vibrant part of achieving the American Dream. But these days owning a home is more like starring in a horror flick, perhaps called Nightmare on Main Street. The numbers are frightening. Home prices are falling nationwide, and the foreclosure rate is at record levels. The delinquency rate for subprime adjustable rate mortgages is an astonishing 20%, and the Federal Reserve’s home equity measure is at its lowest level in 60 years. Indeed, Moody’s Economy.com estimates that more than 10% of the nation’s homeowners were “upside down” on their mortgages by the end of March. In other words, the value of their mortgage is greater than what their home is worth.
It’s a safe bet with both the housing market and the economy deteriorating that more federal money (as well as state funds) will go toward supporting housing this year. But once the downward trajectory moderates, the government should learn from recent experience and take a radical stance: Forget propping up housing. Instead, eliminate taxpayer subsidies for housing. Yes, you read that right.
…
Yet in a modern, dynamic high-tech economy, why should homes get preferable tax treatment over stocks and other investments? The tax gap in treatment is significant. Take capital gains. Say you’d invested in a basket of high-tech stocks three years ago and now you sell the portfolio for a $500,000 profit. Well, you’ll pay a 15% capital gains tax rate on the gain, writing a $75,000 check to Uncle Sam. But you and your husband also sell the home you bought three years ago for a $500,000 profit. Guess what? The Internal Revenue Service gets nothing.
By the way, the tax break for capital gains on housing was signed into law in 1997. Is it a coincidence that home prices soared 79% in the time between the first quarter of 1997 and the first quarter of 2005, with home prices not just going up but rising at an increasingly rapid rate, as calculated by Peter Bernstein, a long-time advisor to institutional investors and author of Against the Gods: The Remarkable Story of Risk. It’s doubtful.
…
What’s more, the mortgage interest deduction is simply bad tax policy. It’s sold as a middle-class subsidy, but since the value of the deduction goes up with the size of the mortgage, the biggest break is enjoyed by the highest-income households. For instance, the President’s 2005 Advisory Panel on Federal Tax Reform calculated that individuals making more than $200,000 a year received more than eight times the benefit of those earning between $50,000 and $75,000 a year.
These days, no one can doubt that a home is an investment. It’s an asset class, like stocks and bonds. Indeed, one reason why housing prices hit such stratospheric heights was the potent combination of owners treating homes as an investment, and the capital markets shoveling huge sums of money into real estate through such innovations as collateralized debt obligations (CDOs). For awhile, the net effect was to increase the liquidity of real estate “investments,” supporting an unprecedented degree of speculation.
The tax code shouldn’t bias investment money to favor one kind of investment over another—certainly not in an intensely competitive global economy. Let the economic fundamentals dictate where investors place their financial bets on the future rather than the tax-writing prejudices (and campaign contribution solicitations) of Congress and the White House.
April 17th, 2008 at 6:29 am
From the IHT:
The problem when homeowners simply walk away
Increasing numbers of Americans are simply walking away from their houses and mortgages, increasing pressure on banks and the economy.
Rapid declines in home prices in many parts of the United States will soon leave as many as one in five borrowers owing more on their loan than the house will sell for, removing the single most powerful incentive to keep up with payments.
The phenomenon of “walkaways” or “jingle mail,” so called because of the noise the house keys make in the envelope mailed to the bank, is hard to measure but shows every sign of gathering pace and having a substantial impact.
Wachovia went so far as to change its models on how quickly loans will go bad in the face of what it called “unprecedented” changes in consumer behavior.
“I don’t know where the tipping point is,” said Don Truslow, chief risk officer at Wachovia. “But somewhere when a borrower crosses the 100 percent loan to value, their propensity to just default and stop paying their mortgage rises dramatically and really accelerates up.”
He added, “It’s almost regardless of how they scored, say, on FICO or other kinds of credit characteristics.”
April 17th, 2008 at 6:31 am
so let me get this,700 gov jobs 300 private
only in nj,,how about another ball park
April 17th, 2008 at 7:00 am
From MarketWatch:
Merrill Lynch posts $1.96 billion loss on write-downs
Merrill Lynch said it swung to a $1.96 billion, or $2.19 a share, loss during the first quarter, with revenue down 69% to $2.9 billion on $1.5 billion write-downs from asset-backed securities CDOs and credit valuation adjustments of $3 billion on hedges with financial guarantors. Merrill Lynch earned $2.16 billion in the year-earlier period. The brokerage did report record revenue in global wealth management and said it was “well-capitalized” with an $82 billion excess liquidity pool. Its $2.20 a share loss from continuing operations compared to the $1.98 a share loss seen by analysts polled by FactSet Research.
April 17th, 2008 at 7:02 am
From Bloomberg:
Vacant Homes in U.K. Prove Speculator Nightmare as Losses Mount
Richard Lee spent 5.3 million pounds ($10 million) buying 20 rental homes across the U.K. with just 150,000 pounds of his own money. Today, the properties are worth about 60 percent less and owned by the banks that financed the purchases.
Lee was one of thousands enticed by one of Europe’s top five best-performing residential property markets during the past decade. Now repossessions are mounting and properties stand empty as many investors fail to find the tenants needed to cover their mortgages after a building boom flooded cities, especially Leeds and Manchester, with apartments.
The unraveling buy-to-rent investment market contributed to a 2.5 percent drop in home prices last month, the biggest since 1992, a report by mortgage lender HBOS Plc shows. Britain is among the countries most likely to follow the U.S. into a housing slump, according to the International Monetary Fund. Prices may drop 10 percent this year and next, said Michael Saunders, a London-based economist at Citigroup Inc.
“Buy-to-let investment was a bubble inside the housing market bubble,” Saunders said. “It’s turning out worse than I thought.”
April 17th, 2008 at 7:02 am
From the WSJ:
Merrill Lynch Swings to a Loss
By KEVIN KINGSBURY
April 17, 2008 6:59 a.m.
Merrill Lynch & Co. posted its third-straight quarterly loss as the brokerage recorded a further $9 billion in write-downs on mortgage-related assets, leveraged loans and hedges.
The company reported a net loss of $1.96 billion, or $2.19 a share, compared with year-earlier net income of $2.16 billion, or $2.26 a share a year earlier.
The latest results included $1.5 billion in write-downs on collateralized debt obligations, much lower than the past two quarters, $3.5 billion in pretax write-downs primarily related to Alt-A residential mortgage-backed securities, a $925 million write-down on leveraged loans and a $3 billion loss on hedges with financial guarantors.
April 17th, 2008 at 7:18 am
From MarketWatch:
Investment bank to slash 4,000 jobs in bid to save $800 million
Merrill Lynch on Thursday reported a $1.96 billion loss for the first quarter and said it’s planning to cut 4,000 jobs.
…
Merrill said it is planning to cut headcount from year-end levels by about 4,000 employees, or 10% of its workforce excluding financial advisers and investment associates. The job cuts will be targeted at global markets and investment banking and support areas.
April 17th, 2008 at 7:22 am
From Bloomberg:
Banks That Misquote Money-Market Rates to Be Banned
The British Bankers’ Association said it will ban any member deliberately misquoting lending rates at daily money-market operations amid concern that some contributors are providing misleading quotes.
The global credit squeeze has raised concern lenders have been manipulating the so-called fixing process to prevent their borrowing costs from escalating, the Bank for International Settlements said in March. Participants have complained to the BBA, the Wall Street Journal said today, citing a person familiar with the matter. The BBA holds its annual board meeting today.
“It’s very important to us that we preserve the integrity of the figures,” said Lesley McLeod, a BBA spokeswoman in London. “It’s something we have been looking at. If we find that people have been putting in figures which don’t reflect accurately their financial figures, the ultimate sanction is to throw them out of the pond.”
April 17th, 2008 at 7:27 am
From Bloomberg:
CIT Group Posts First-Quarter Loss on Bad Loans, Cuts Dividend
CIT Group Inc., the commercial finance company trying to escape a cash squeeze, said it was unprofitable for a fourth straight quarter and cut its dividend after failing to staunch losses on residential and student loans.
The first quarter’s $249.7 million loss before preferred dividends, or $1.35 a share, compares with a profit of $208.1 million, or $1.01 fully diluted, in the same period a year earlier, according to a statement on Business Wire. Fifteen analysts surveyed by Bloomberg predicted earnings of 55 cents a share.
April 17th, 2008 at 7:29 am
Grim 10 Didn’t they get the memo from the PPT we can’t have the libor rate going up as so many loans are tied to it. One more nail in the coffin.
April 17th, 2008 at 7:39 am
Not to worry, the construction of Xanadu will bring plenty of high paying jobs to Northern NJ. And there are a few new hotels being built on Route 17 adding even more jobs. I predict these jobs will bring people to the area to purchase all of the built up inventory. Problem solved!
April 17th, 2008 at 7:53 am
tBw 13 Yes, those 6 figure service ind. jobs will just come pouring in from Xanadu. Then they can buy a pos cape for 550 in BC.
April 17th, 2008 at 8:20 am
: thatBIGwindow says (#13)
April 17th, 2008 at 7:39 am
“…Not to worry, the construction of Xanadu will bring plenty of high paying jobs to Northern NJ. And there are a few new hotels being built on Route 17 adding even more jobs. I predict these jobs will bring people to the area to purchase all of the built up inventory. Problem solved…”
Commanderbob sez; YEP !– “High-paying” jobs a-coming. Also coming your way, a tremendous amount of nightmare style traffic that the idiot planners will be giving us;– The lack of a parallel road from North Bergen across the Hackensack River to this ‘Xanadu’ site insures this future nightmare of a commute on Route 3…Damn local/state government fools for not requiring the developers to build at their own expense proper access to this GIANT project !!
On another note: It should be interesting if Vornado will be financially sucessful with the purchase and total rebuilding of the old Bergen Mall on route 4 in Paramus…They got off to a slow start but the project seems to be really moving along lately. They are betting hundreds-of-millions on the brick-and-mortar retail world…Vornado are shopping center ‘people’, So I guess that they know what they are doing…
BOB
April 17th, 2008 at 8:24 am
I really wonder how many of these jobs will be “new” and not simply jobs shifted from other marginal/less successful retail centers. Can we really support this additional retail capacity? Will we see other struggling centers fail?
Will be interesting to see how this plays out.
Pre, what is your take on this.
April 17th, 2008 at 8:30 am
Especially interesting when you throw in wildcards like declining consumer spending, and gambling in the Meadowlands.
April 17th, 2008 at 8:33 am
C BOB 15 That would be some undertaking.
Cutting a road off of west side over the TP twice as you skirt Secaucus. In addition the eastbound RTE 3 bring is long in the tooth & I believe is same design of the one that collapsed out west. I read somewhere it has to be refurbished or replace SOON.
April 17th, 2008 at 8:33 am
From the Star Ledger:
Trump may buy out Meadowlands investor
Donald Trump is in talks to buy out the biggest investor in the long-troubled EnCap golf-and-housing development in the Meadowlands, according to the real estate mogul’s attorney.
Trump is “in substantive conversations with Cherokee to acquire their interest in the Meadowlands site,” Michael Cohen said today. North Carolina-based Cherokee Investment Partners is EnCap’s main backer.
…
In November, Trump took over management of the project, in exchange for $15 million. Trump already has invested his own money in EnCap, Cohen said.
He spent $2.5 million for construction vehicles and nearly $300,000 to pay off tax liens for four properties targeted for development, Cohen said. The payments were made by Meadowlands Development Venture, a wholly owned subsidiary of the Trump Organization, Cohen said.
But in order for the project to succeed, Trump would need to build more housing units, Cohen said.
April 17th, 2008 at 8:35 am
I wonder what the new estimate is? 3,000 homes? More?
April 17th, 2008 at 8:36 am
GRIM
Especially interesting when you throw in wildcards like declining consumer spending, and gambling in the Meadowlands. ?
Grim gambling in the Meadowlands I hadn’t heard about that.
April 17th, 2008 at 8:37 am
From Marketwatch:
U.S. weekly initial jobless claims rise 17,000 to 372,000
First-time filings for state unemployment benefits rose by 17,000 to 372,000 in the week ending April 12, the Labor Department reported Thursday. The four-week moving average of those claims fell by 750 to 376,000. For the week ending April 5, continuing jobless claims came in at 2.98 million, their highest level since mid-June 2004. The number of continuing claims rose by 26,000. The four-week average of continuing claims, meanwhile, rose by 29,750 to 2.94 million.
April 17th, 2008 at 8:40 am
Tom Barrack and Colony Capital are big into gaming. They are the new backers of Xanadu, swooped in to save the day. Why bail out a mall in the Meadowlands? Look next to the racing industry that has been begging for VLTs at the track in an attempt to keep racing alive. Put this in the context of a search for new state revenues. Lastly, gaming in the Meadowlands would go far to stem the outflow of penny slot gamblers to neighboring states. Now we’ve got Trump in the Meadowlands too? Something is afoot.
April 17th, 2008 at 8:40 am
Grim, Mike in Waiting:
Xanadu IS gambling in the Meadowlands.
What is the over/under in how long after Xanadu opens that the first gang-related stabbing occurs?
I give it 19 days.
April 17th, 2008 at 8:44 am
Bob (15)-
Never bet against Vornado. They are a cut above.
April 17th, 2008 at 8:44 am
If they want to keep racing alive at the Meadowlands switch to regular horse racing instead of that harness bs.
April 17th, 2008 at 8:45 am
“Also coming your way, a tremendous amount of nightmare style traffic that the idiot planners will be giving us”
I think the best example is the Home Depot between the entrance and exit of the Holland Tunnel. While the JC planning board did try to stop it, the HD lawyers pulled some 1950’s legislation to force it through.
April 17th, 2008 at 8:46 am
grim (23)-
No coincidence there. IMO, they’re up to more than just slots or a racino set-up. I’m feeling full-fledged casino…
The NFL should love that.
April 17th, 2008 at 8:48 am
Clot(25):
“Never bet against Vornado. They are a cut above.”
I heard the same thing about BBBY, JNJ, GOOG and CMG. Nothing goes up forever. VNO is the largest commercial real estate REIT in my ultrashort ETF. I hope you are wrong ;)
April 17th, 2008 at 8:50 am
Mere minutes from NYC? Minutes from an international airport? World class golf? Horse Racing? Football? Just throw in an F1 track and you’ve got yourself the next Monaco/Macau. Why bother with the houses? Turn it into a mega-resort.
To hell with AC, let it sink into the sea.
April 17th, 2008 at 8:51 am
Kettle,
The supply side;
“Nigeria risks losing a third of its oil output by 2015 unless it finds ways to boost investment in joint ventures with foreign energy companies, an internal report by President Umaru Yar’Adua’s energy advisers warns.”
http://royaldutchshellplc.com/2008/04/17/nigeria%E2%80%99s-oil-output-%E2%80%98could-fall-by-a-third%E2%80%99/
April 17th, 2008 at 8:52 am
Gambling at the Meadowlands?
“HEY HONEY, WHERE IS THAT HELOC APPLICATION I LEFT ON THE KITCHEN TABLE?”
April 17th, 2008 at 8:53 am
Stu (29)-
VNO can go down- in the short run- as easily as any other REIT. They’re 25% off their 52-week high right now.
However, they don’t saddle themselves with bad locations, excessive vacancy and rosy projections. When you look at them over entire industry cycles, they perform exceedingly well.
April 17th, 2008 at 8:56 am
Don’t worry, John Challenger is obviously challenged. Probably missing a blackbox. I’m sure pret has a better handle on WS/financial jobs.
“Fears are rising that Wall Street’s new bloodbath is spreading abroad, with Swiss banking giant UBS expected to slash payrolls by 10 percent and London’s stock market bracing for as many as 40,000 sackings.”
“Investment banks - clobbered by losses of more than $250 billion in collapsed mortgage securities - are shedding payrolls at one of the sharpest rates in years, said Challenger Gray & Christmas, with 26,719 jobs in the first quarter alone disappearing in the financial services industry, including Wall Street banks.”
“Financial services are at the center of this recession,” said CEO John Challenger. “This crisis is deeper than the one in the early 1990s, and we still don’t know how far we’re into this one.”
http://www.nypost.com/seven/04162008/business/dont_bank_on_it_106780.htm
April 17th, 2008 at 8:57 am
Good thing most NJ’s newly minted private sector jobs are in the exciting field of “food services”. The employee discount at Bennigans can serve as a very effective hedge against food price inflation.
With inflationary pressures rendered a non-issue for NJ’s growing army of food service workers, the overhang of half-a-million-dollar starter capes should be snapped up pretty quickly. Better get one while you still can.
April 17th, 2008 at 8:58 am
Big Friggin Deal about unemployement. This is not 1992. I know lots of people unemployed, my brother who took a big package who is on vacation in Vegas, my friend who took a package and has a summer jobs off the books, My Bear friends who nearly all of them who were offered a job at Chase on June 1st turned it down for severence and unemployment and my brother-in-law who is watching the three kids and saved tons of child care while out. In 1992 people were thrown out the door and at stay at home wives and there was no income in the door. My friend at Bear for instance has no kids a wife who makes 200K and would rather get a big check June 1st get the summer off on unemployment and re-hit the labor market in Sept. The 1991/2 test was that when the 26 weeks of unemployment ended people still could not find work with a stay at home wife, that is a desperate person and shows their were no jobs. With dual income households and severence and unemployment checks it ain’t that big a deal to be out of work for a few months. My brother is looking forward to golf all summer. He got 14 months severance so until May 2009 he is getting paid, boo hoo.
April 17th, 2008 at 8:59 am
334 BC Bob:This crisis is deeper than the one in the early 1990s, and we still don’t know how far we’re into this one.”
This is exactly what I have been saying, but hey pret knows best.
April 17th, 2008 at 8:59 am
I wonder if traders and bankers would make for good casino employees? All the more reason.
April 17th, 2008 at 9:03 am
“Big Friggin Deal about unemployement.”
John [36],
Yes, you are a moron. Don’t step back, you might step in it. If you get the slip, please come back and regurgitate these same sentiments.
April 17th, 2008 at 9:04 am
Inventory questions:
For all or any that asked about GSMLS inventory, I had mentioned I had kept a record of it but lost it to a computer crash. I have recovered all my lost files and the all time high recorded was Oct 2007 the amount was 36,202 The first month I started was May 06 the high for that month was 27909, the high for april 07 was 32861, today we are at 35,307, If the build up follows the patterns of the last 2 years we will reach 40,000.
KL
April 17th, 2008 at 9:05 am
“I wonder if traders and bankers would make for good casino employees?”
Grim,
I know a few traders that are now in Vegas, constructing point spreads.
April 17th, 2008 at 9:06 am
And our top story… as expected, the meteor that has crashed off the coast of Guam last week has wiped out 75% of the world’s species and plunged the world into darkness which is forecasted to last another 6 months. As a result, there are massive fires and rioting for food, water and shelter around the globe. The good news, though, is that house prices in prestigous Northern NJ are expected to hold up and possibly rise in the first half of 2009.
April 17th, 2008 at 9:06 am
GSMLS owners must be laughing all the way to the bank. They don’t care if properties sell or not, they get paid either way.
I can’t imagine how much money they are raking in every month with 35,000 properties listed, it has got to be tremendous.
April 17th, 2008 at 9:09 am
336 John:Well let me tell you that months go quickly.
When I was laid off from Goldman I got a big severance pakage too, but the months quickly fly, and goofing off for a year in my mind does not make a lot of sense.
As far as the spouses making 200K, thats more the excpetiont han the norm. And what happens if the spouse looses the big job?
I think your friends were foolish to turn down the job offers from JP Morgan, especially if they are over 40. So they turn down the offer, take the package, and then what come back next year and go where Merrill, Morgan?
Hiring on the street is going to be int he dumps, for a long,long time, and if you aagain if you are over 40,forget it.
They were quite lucky to get those offers and I assume they must be in the prime brokerage, or high net worth sales group, or perhaps the clearing business.
Becasue from what I have been told by people I know at Bear is that those are the only areas that JP is interested in keeping. Everything else is redundant.
April 17th, 2008 at 9:10 am
“Big Friggin Deal about unemployement.”
Let’s have a show of hands. How many would actually embrace the pink slip?
April 17th, 2008 at 9:12 am
I know a few traders that are now in Vegas, constructing point spreads.
Few years back I was hanging out with Moby at the Foundation Room at the top of Mandalay. We had a table, and quite a crowd, I must add. Now normally, a dork like myself would have never been invited, but I happened to be out with two models, friends of a friend. Anyhow, he spared no expense, he bankrolled the party but didn’t have a single drink (had one hell of a suite too). Anyway, he was there with a friend of his who ran book, a quant who spent many years on the street. Guy had an incredible academic background (yes, I looked him up after the fact, published). Anyhow, he grew tired of the street and found he could do much better running a book. Took alot of the same high-powered quant techniques and applied them to the book, they had one hell of a number crunching system in place.
(This is the best imitation of John I can muster)
April 17th, 2008 at 9:14 am
If I was collecting a severance, I would hit the pavement on the same day my current employment terminated. Nothing like a double salary for a few months to really juice up the investment portfolio.
April 17th, 2008 at 9:15 am
grim (46) - Laughing uncontrollablly into a conference call, thanks…really…
April 17th, 2008 at 9:18 am
JB,
One of the offshore betting sites is run by option traders from the Pacific Stock Exchange. They created options betting on sports. The line adjusts during the game. You can bet during the entire game. After one team goes on a run, you may want to sell out a call. It’s classic.
April 17th, 2008 at 9:23 am
You know what, I might even have a picture, let me see if I can dig it up.
April 17th, 2008 at 9:25 am
Clot?
http://www.app.com/apps/pbcs.dll/article?AID=/20080417/NEWS/80417008/0/NEWS03
April 17th, 2008 at 9:32 am
from Times Online (UK)
The Bank of England is close to agreeing a plan designed to ease the mortgage funding drought.
It is understood that the Treasury about to finalise a scheme under which the Bank would allow lenders to swap their mortgage-backed assets for government bonds rather than cash. Lenders would be able to use the gilts as collateral for loans from other banks. It is hoped that the move will ease the seizure in the credit markets and lead to a drop in mortgage rates for homeowners.
At least the FED arent the only ones accepting handwritten IOU’s
April 17th, 2008 at 9:32 am
#47 stu: Exactly!!
April 17th, 2008 at 9:34 am
Did anyone notice the comments from the JP conference call, they expect a 7-9% decline in home prices in just 08 alone
April 17th, 2008 at 9:36 am
How ’bout Harley? Is there any better indicator of a HELOC bonanza slowdown?
April 17th, 2008 at 9:38 am
From the AP:
Harley-Davidson cuts shipments, jobs as 1Q profit skids
Harley-Davidson Inc. will cut its workforce by about 8 percent and curtail shipments of its iconic motorcycles this year after reporting a decline in first-quarter profits Thursday, with domestic sales tumbling nearly 13 percent.
April 17th, 2008 at 9:40 am
BC,
WSJ apparently has blamed the decline in russian oil on lack of access by foreign companies, not supply issues…. RA RA SIS BOOM BA
April 17th, 2008 at 9:46 am
I used to do the tech gigs….6 months or a year with a firm….firm melts down gives severance….take 6 months off. It is a great lifestyle. Always avoid Gov checks…they are taxable….
April 17th, 2008 at 9:50 am
John,
What are you gonna do with a $400 per week unemployment check when you worked at Bear and made 200K? Can you even pick gas, food, and pay property taxes?
Are you kidding me? All of the sudden after the summer goldilocks economy is coming back and in September there’s going to be another Bear Sterns out there.
What are you smoking?
You’re right this isn’t ‘91/’92 it’s much worse and everyone is carrying a lot more debt with them.
April 17th, 2008 at 9:54 am
jon will be on bloom at 11am to discuss
nj and our future together.
carla,,, wrote the scrip
April 17th, 2008 at 9:57 am
From the WSJ:
Why Lenders Are Leery
Of Short Sales
This Foreclosure Alternative
Helps Strapped Homeowners,
But It’s Not Easy to Pull Off
By RUTH SIMON and JAMES R. HAGERTY
April 17, 2008; Page D1
As more people fall behind on their mortgages, lenders have been slow to take advantage of a longstanding alternative to foreclosure — a so-called short sale.
At first glance, a short sale might seem like a win-win for everyone involved. In such an arrangement, the borrower sells the home for less than the amount owed, with the lender forgiving the difference. The sale releases borrowers from their obligations. For mortgage holders, it can be less costly than foreclosing — and could provide protection against future price drops. For buyers, it can be a chance to buy a home at an attractive price.
Short sales — which were rare when the housing market was booming — can also be a good way for lenders and investors to minimize losses. They typically result in losses of 19% of the loan amount, compared with an average loss of 40% for homes that are sold after foreclosure, according to a recent analysis by Clayton Holdings Inc., which tracks more than $500 billion in mortgage loans monthly for investors. The costs of foreclosure can include not only legal fees, but also taxes, insurance and the expense of maintaining the home until the property is sold and repairing any property damage.
As the housing market continues to weaken, the number of short sales is edging upward. Short sales currently account for about 18% of home sales, according to the National Association of Realtors. But it can be extremely difficult to get these deals completed. Unlike a traditional real-estate sale, a short sale requires the approval of not only the buyer and the seller, but also the mortgage-servicing company. In many cases, loans have been packaged into securities — which means that the mortgage servicer must consider the interests of the investors who own the loans.
Deals can fall apart because the mortgage company rejects the price that has been agreed upon by the buyer and seller. Long delays in getting an answer from the mortgage servicer are another obstacle.
The process can be so frustrating that some real-estate agents and home buyers have decided that a short sale isn’t worth the effort. Shari Adams, a paralegal, bought a foreclosed three-bedroom house in Stuart, Fla., after she tried twice to buy a home being sold in a short sale. One deal fell through when the mortgage servicer turned down her offer after six weeks and didn’t make a counteroffer. Another deal collapsed because it wasn’t clear that the seller was truly facing a financial hardship.
“I basically started to run away from any home listed as a short sale,” Ms. Adams says.
April 17th, 2008 at 9:57 am
(cont)
The success rate for short-sale offers is low, real-estate agents say. Molly Kay Hamrick, president of Coldwell Banker Premier Realty in Las Vegas, estimates that 20% of short-sale offers in the area lead to completed sales, compared with 85% for more traditional sales. Redfin, an online real-estate brokerage based in Seattle, says it represented buyers on 65 short-sale offers in the first quarter but expects only two or three to result in a completed sale.
Because so many deals fall through, Jean Manner Schwimmer of Coldwell Banker Gay Dales in Salinas, Calif., advises buyers making an offer on a short sale to put a clause in their contract that says the deposit can’t be cashed until it is clear that the sale has been approved by the mortgage company and the contract has been signed.
Many borrowers walk away in frustration because it takes so long to get a response from the mortgage company to their offer. Servicers take an average of 4½ weeks to provide an answer on a potential short sale, according to a recent survey of real-estate agents by Campbell Communications, with some taking two months or more to respond. By contrast, it takes an average of less than two weeks to get a response to an offer for a property that has been foreclosed on, the survey found.
April 17th, 2008 at 9:58 am
“Did anyone notice the comments from the JP conference call”
Kettle,
More on JP. Dimon says the credit crisis will continue for the remainder of the year, possibly longer. Fuld says the crisis is over, Mack and Blankfein say it’s in the 8th or 9th inning. Is it possible that we are playing a double-header? Hey Ernie, let’s play 2.
Guess, who has more level 3 assets?. Is Dimon spraying more bullets at the rest of the street? This is taking shape to be more entertaining than a Broadway play.
http://www.independent.co.uk/news/business/news/jp-morgan-warns-credit-crisis-could-continue-into-next-year-810489.html?r=RSS
April 17th, 2008 at 9:59 am
54 kettle
So what? 7% is just 2% more than 5%, and 5% constitutes “stagnant”, so even if that’s a correct forecast, prices will be basically the same.
/sarcasm off/
April 17th, 2008 at 10:05 am
Re 63 BC,
My personal opion is Dimon appears to at least be in touch with reality. Probably has more to do with their being a traditional bank and not as involved in the subprime/alt-A crud.
There are years worth of ARMS resets and job losses ahead that mean more CDO/CLO blowups down the road and more write offs. Any fiscal bailout is going to take forever to be effective, if its effective at all, and the typical foreclosure process takes about a year from beginning to end. Any of these clowns saying we’re in the ninth inning is just trying to prop up share prices.
April 17th, 2008 at 10:08 am
Hilarious…..I didn’t even need to read the article….about a DIY king….
http://www.nytimes.com/2008/04/17/garden/17akron.html?_r=1&oref=slogin
The photo told me all I need to know…..he put the electrical service on the front of the home…completely ruining the place.
April 17th, 2008 at 10:09 am
I had an interetsting evening last night. I had to go into the city for a dinner at the Nasdaq. There was a speech by a major IT CEO basicly saying that they are out of the hardware business and the future is in the service sector. NOthing new on that front. The part I did have a problem with was that he would not focus on small to midsized companies, but on the large companies like Citigroup who were sitting in the front row. I’ve been working with this company for 15 yrs. Companies like mine have been the bedrock of their earnings. We held them up when they got burnt by the dot com bust. I left the dinner feeling that at a time when they are going to get burnt again they are walking away from us. They no longer want my business. I wish them well with Citi. They are relying on harpooning whales for their future earnings. All I can say is good luck Ahab.
A fun part of the evening was walking up 7th Ave, I had to show major restriant to the many members of “Team Mitzvah” and the many offers to pray with them. On the outside, it was a rebuff with a polite “No Thanks” or “I’m of a different faith”. On the inside I’m wondering if there is free rugula. The bad side of me wants to ask if we can pray for the success of the popes visit to re-energise the catholic faith, but I know that would just be mean.
April 17th, 2008 at 10:10 am
46 Grim,
Priceless!
April 17th, 2008 at 10:16 am
Orion (51)-
I’d better go out to my garage and check the “inventory”…:)
April 17th, 2008 at 10:19 am
Oh yeah, nothing like chocolate ruggalach from Yochie’s Heimish in Passaic Park.
April 17th, 2008 at 10:20 am
“This is the best imitation of John I can muster.”
Don’t quit your day job.
1. You failed to describe the chicks. (-10 pts) 2. You included the following phrases:
April 17th, 2008 at 10:20 am
HE (65)-
“My personal opion is Dimon appears to at least be in touch with reality. Probably has more to do with their being a traditional bank and not as involved in the subprime/alt-A crud.”
Don’t be so quick with the praise, HE. Just because JPM’s mortgage ops have been top-shelf doesn’t mean the whole enterprise is spotless. Nobody has more potentially-toxic derivatives exposure than these guys.
April 17th, 2008 at 10:20 am
25 clot
“Never bet against Vornado. They are a cut above.”
Maybe, but they can’t seem to fill that space across from Radio City that’s been empty for months.
April 17th, 2008 at 10:21 am
after the fact, etc. (-15 points).
April 17th, 2008 at 10:21 am
arrrgh…shift tab stinks.
April 17th, 2008 at 10:23 am
Clot,
Very true. Just saying at least he’s being “honest” compared to the bs coming from the other CEO’s
April 17th, 2008 at 10:23 am
grim (46)-
Too funny.
I think you should devote a whole day/thread to a “write like John” contest. Perhaps have different threads for each of his personalities.
I’d suggest these:
1. Lady-killer
2. Grossout king
3. Cheapskate
4. WS big swinging d*&k
5. NJ suburban schlub
6. Latent racist
April 17th, 2008 at 10:24 am
I know, I know, it’s just not John without the hookers and public urination.
April 17th, 2008 at 10:25 am
Hey, has anyone seen anything interesting from Otteau lately?
April 17th, 2008 at 10:26 am
Pat (79)-
No. One of his guys came to appraise a short sale of mine three weeks ago and hasn’t filed the report yet. He clogging up the damn works.
Hey Jeff, get the damn appraisal to the bank!
April 17th, 2008 at 10:27 am
Only the Q1 Otteau Reports.
April 17th, 2008 at 10:27 am
#45
BC,
I would NEVER want to get laid off… my gig keeps me from drinking too much, plus it pays the bills.
April 17th, 2008 at 10:30 am
“The latest results included $1.5 billion in write-downs on collateralized debt obligations, much lower than the past two quarters, $3.5 billion in pretax write-downs primarily related to Alt-A residential mortgage-backed securities, a $925 million write-down on leveraged loans and a $3 billion loss on hedges with financial guarantors.”
That CAN’T be true!!! bi and S&P said there would be no more writedowns!!
April 17th, 2008 at 10:33 am
“Merrill said it is planning to cut headcount from year-end levels by about 4,000 employees, or 10% of its workforce”
Thanks goodness none of those will be in Manhattan. Merrill said it is planning to cut headcount from year-end levels by about 4,000 employees, or 10% of its workforce
April 17th, 2008 at 10:35 am
re: 19 & 21 - Medowlands
Trump wants to build lots of office space, lots of housing and he hasn’t said it yet but he is hedging and may want to build a CASINO and a CONVENTION center.
Think Atlantic City North with Zanadu, Football, Concerts, Convention center,a casio and lots of condos.
Five miles from Manhattan means billions in reveune for anyone that can pull it off. Right now our legislators are tripping all over each other to get this done including adding provisions to fund the pension system directly from the profits. You know the Unions will be on board with this one, jobs, jobs, jobs, and pensions for everyone!
Checkout the Bills floating now in the Legislature.
Bill info is found here.
http://www.njleg.state.nj.us/
Search for the word casino and also Meadowlands on the “Bill Search” right side. I would post links but Grim does not allow that many.
April 17th, 2008 at 10:35 am
BC Bob Says:
April 17th, 2008 at 9:10 am
“Big Friggin Deal about unemployement.”
Let’s have a show of hands. How many would actually embrace the pink slip?
If it comes with 14 month severance pay I am first in line…
However my company policy: 1 month /year of service up to 10 month max. No more.
April 17th, 2008 at 10:36 am
From MarketWatch:
Philly factory gauge falls to 7-year low
Factories in the Philadelphia region reported weaker conditions in early April, as the Philly Fed index remained negative for the fifth straight month.
The index fell to negative 24.9 in April from negative 17.4 in March, the Federal Reserve Bank of Philadelphia reported Thursday.
It’s the lowest reading in the index since February 2001. The index is one of the earliest indicators of activity in a given month, but it can be erratic.
Readings below zero indicate more firms say conditions are worsening than say things are improving.
The report adds another piece to evidence that the nation’s manufacturing sector is struggling as weakness from the housing market spills over into other parts of the economy.
The news order index fell to negative 18.8 in April from negative 9.3. The shipments index fell to negative 8 from negative 6.3.
Employment gauges remained negative.
Firms reported paying higher prices, and a growing number say they are making their own price increases stick. The price-paid index fell to 51.6 from 54.4 in March. The prices-received index rose to 30.5, the highest in more than two years.
April 17th, 2008 at 10:39 am
Sean,
ACR52/ACR236 baby..
Constitutional amendment authorizing Casino gambling at Meadowlands complex; dedicates revenues to fund State-administered retirement systems.
April 17th, 2008 at 10:40 am
23 grim
That’s another GTG conversation to be had.
April 17th, 2008 at 10:40 am
10 G. It shall be lawful for the Legislature to authorize by law the
11 establishment and operation, under regulation and control by the
12 State, of gambling houses or casinos at the site of the Meadowlands
13 complex, located in East Rutherford, Bergen County, and to license
14 and tax such operations and equipment used in connection
15 therewith. Any law authorizing the establishment and operation of
16 such gambling establishments shall provide for the State revenues
17 derived therefrom to be applied solely for the purpose of funding
18 the State-administered retirement systems, in accordance with such
19 formulae as the Legislature shall by law provide. The type and
20 number of such casinos or gambling houses and of the gambling
21 games which may be conducted in any such establishment shall be
22 determined by or pursuant to the terms of the law authorizing the
23 establishment and operation thereof.
April 17th, 2008 at 10:41 am
Doug Kass
Kass: Reality Check
http://www.thestreet.com/story/10412028/1/kass-reality-check.html?puc=btlhome
April 17th, 2008 at 10:41 am
Doyle [82],
Not to mention, Super Bowl tickets.
April 17th, 2008 at 10:43 am
Barrack is a bright guy, a grave dancer too, he wouldn’t have bailed Xanadu unless there was something big in it for Colony.
Take a peek:
http://www.colonyinc.com/gaming.php
April 17th, 2008 at 10:43 am
grim (90)-
I just wish some casino outside Vegas could get the right to open a sports book.
April 17th, 2008 at 10:46 am
Personally hope I never get laid off, I hate daytime tv.
April 17th, 2008 at 10:47 am
#66 DIY King.
http://www.nytimes.com/slideshow/2008/04/17/garden/20080417akron_index.html
I think he did a good job on the restoration. It looks a whole heck of alot better than when it was worse (obviously).
April 17th, 2008 at 10:48 am
I am like a cockaroach I will keep my job. BTW their are TONS of high paying jobs out their! Problem is they are not in the USA In NY/NJ you need your house paid off by 50, a million in your 401K by 50 and be willing to move, consult, travel or do sales in your next job. Then a layoff is not that big a deal.
My friends at the FED who were considered low paid in 1987 were doing a irish jig in 1991 when they had guaranteed jobs and incomes and they were buying NYC coops and Hampton houses like they were gong out of style from Bankrupt traders. What comes around goes around. Unemployment is great news for people with guaranteed jobs. They took less pay in good times so they would have pay in bad times. They want the bad times to justify their decision.
BC Bob Says:
April 17th, 2008 at 9:03 am
“Big Friggin Deal about unemployement.”
John [36],
Yes, you are a moron. Don’t step back, you might step in it. If you get the slip, please come back and regurgitate these same sentiments.
April 17th, 2008 at 10:49 am
Especially, ESPECIALLY, after what he said in this interview from October 2005:
I’m Tom Barrack* and I’m getting out
*The world’s best real estate investor has made billions in the U.S. market. Now he’s cashing out and buying overseas. Should you cash out too?
Then Barrack launches into a parable. “I feel totally safe playing polo on a field full of pros,” says the bronzed 58-year-old. “But when amateurs are all over the field, someone can get killed. They have more guts than brains. They charge after every ball and don’t know when to hold back.” It’s the same with the U.S. real estate market right now: “There’s too much money chasing too few good deals, with too much debt and too few brains.” The amateurs are going to get trampled, he explains, taking seasoned horsemen, who should get off the turf, down with them. Says Barrack: “That’s why I’m getting out.”
Investors, take heed. Barrack may be an amateur in polo, but when it comes to judging markets, he’s the ultimate pro. Arguably the best real estate investor on the planet today, he runs a $25 billion portfolio of trophy assets, from the Raffles hotel chain in Asia to the Aga Khan’s former resort in Sardinia to Resorts International, the largest private gaming company in the U.S. Barrack’s Colony Capital of Los Angeles, one of the largest private-equity firms devoted solely to real estate, has racked up returns of 21% annually since 1990, handing investors, chiefly pension funds and college endowments, 17% after all fees.
April 17th, 2008 at 10:50 am
Clot [94],
Did you ever trade basketball options, trading throughout the game?
April 17th, 2008 at 10:50 am
What kind of scam numbers can we expect on a Housing Bailout? Katrina scammed $485 million and that was just one city. How much can a nation scam?
$485M overpaid to storm victims
http://www.usatoday.com/news/nation/2007-06-14-fema-overpayments_N.htm
The Federal Emergency Management Agency overpaid victims of the Gulf Coast hurricanes by at least $485 million and is struggling to reclaim the money from tens of thousands of people it says shouldn’t have been given aid.
April 17th, 2008 at 10:51 am
Clot,
Check the nj leg link above, already in the pipeline. AC has been begging for it.
April 17th, 2008 at 10:52 am
http://www.njleg.state.nj.us/2008/Bills/A2500/2013_I1.PDF
April 17th, 2008 at 10:53 am
#92
BC, true, true… good memory.
April 17th, 2008 at 10:53 am
77 clot
The ABA thanks you for interrupting the conference with my laughter
April 17th, 2008 at 10:56 am
Molby is way techno cool!!! I used to live on 26th street years ago right near the building where his grandpappy wrote Moby Dick.
BTW NASDAQOMX is the worst name of a company I ever hear!!!!
Which stands for:
National Association of Securities Dealers Automated Quotation system Options Market eXpress
April 17th, 2008 at 10:56 am
82 doyle
Same.
In fact, I picked my gig specifically because it is highly unlikely to result in a layoff.
April 17th, 2008 at 10:58 am
#24 Stu.
First Gang related stabbing 12 days.
First Shooting in 23 days.
Car Theft - Priceless.
Jersey Gardens closes within 3 years after Xanadu opens.
April 17th, 2008 at 11:00 am
90
And there it is.
April 17th, 2008 at 11:01 am
Xanadu will be like Disney, nobody dies in Disney. Your bloody body will be dumped in Moonachie.
April 17th, 2008 at 11:06 am
Mitchell,
Have there been any stabbings or shootings at Jersey Gardens?
When I think of violence and mayhem at shopping malls, it is Eastland Mall in your town that comes to mind.
That’s what can happen to real estate values in the South. A bad mall in the south is worth $10 million or less.
But a bad mall in North Jersey is worth more than $100 million.
Vornado paid $145 million for the failed Bergen Mall.
April 17th, 2008 at 11:11 am
96…Yes I agree the inside is nice…but man alive…why put the box on the front of house….kind of ruins it from the front.
April 17th, 2008 at 11:13 am
Can any one tell me how long this one has been listing for MLS # 20812374. Thanks!
April 17th, 2008 at 11:15 am
#109 oh god here we go with the north vs south again. Avoid the parkway if its going to make you so aggressive.
Wonder what the taxes are on over valued real estate? Enjoy that toll you pay to get to Xanadu.
April 17th, 2008 at 11:21 am
I have a nice signed retention package. Auto workers are not the only ones smart enough to get it in writting. So I would raise my hand!
April 17th, 2008 at 11:21 am
any one planning on showing up to harvest Moon in NB besides me Syb and Jmac?
April 17th, 2008 at 11:23 am
Mitchell,
I don’t drive anywhere. I use NJ Transit to move around. So gas prices and tolls don’t matter to me.
New York metro has great public transit by US standards. This makes it is possible to live here without a car or for a family to get by with only 1 car.
It costs something like $5-10k per year to keep a car on the road in this state. Real estate taxes are a little easier to bear when you can avoid that car expense.
April 17th, 2008 at 11:24 am
Interesting ING just raised one year cds but kept 6 low and made 9 lower as if to say we will get the next rate cut but that will cause inflation to rise and rates to rise in the 9-12 month period.
9 Month 2.50% 04/17/08 Open Now
12 Month 3.30% 04/17/08 Open Now
April 17th, 2008 at 11:29 am
10y yield has been on a tear over the past week. What is it, two month high?
April 17th, 2008 at 11:38 am
“Have there been any stabbings or shootings at Jersey Gardens?”
Please shoot and/or stab me if I enter.
April 17th, 2008 at 11:38 am
Not that it really matters much to mortgage rates anymore.
April 17th, 2008 at 11:39 am
April 17th, 2008 at 11:37 am
chicagofinance Says:
April 16th, 2008 at 5:15 pm
make money Says:
April 16th, 2008 at 5:00 pm
Check out this on June 29th 2006. He’ss right on the money. Bc, Why didn’t I listen to you back in 2006?? http://www.europac.net/Schiff-CNBC-6-29-06_lg.asp
NO…he was 12 months too early….you would have missed a massive runup in stocks for the 15 months that followed his call.
Albani,
Are you kidding me? Check the Gold and Commodities and they blew away your “big run up” to Dow 14K.
I’ve been watching and reading this guy all the way back to the ’90s and the only thing that he didn’t understand was that Bush was not gonna let a recession stop him from being re-elected like his Dad.
Now the Pain is gonna be twice as bad.
April 17th, 2008 at 11:40 am
re: (107) Mitchell I was in the Mall of America in Minneapolis over the Christmas Holidays, paying my annual pilgrimage to the temple of consumerism. There was more than one stabbing the day I was there. They did not shut down the Mall. The security guards simply put up caution tape around the blood stains and it was business as usual.
April 17th, 2008 at 11:42 am
JB [118],
Triple top, price/not yield. It’s breaking support lines. Might be the beginning of a trend, lower prices/higher yields.
April 17th, 2008 at 11:43 am
‘Mini-riot’ breaks out in Nyack; 2 possibly stabbed
…
What one officer described as a “mini-riot” kicked off when competing groups of Spring Valley and Nyack teenagers converged at the Franklin Street park in South Nyack, police said.
A South Nyack-Grand View officer drove to the park. When the officer arrived, the teens left the area but a fight broke out at Franklin Street and Hudson Avenue a few blocks away in Nyack, police said.
“A large fight broke out with people supposedly showing weapons,” South Nyack-Grand View Police Chief Robert Van Cura said today.
…
Police drove around telling children and adults to get inside their houses.
“It’s like a mini-riot,” Sheriff’s Department Lt. William Barbera said. “We’re chasing people. There were reports someone displayed a gun.”
April 17th, 2008 at 11:52 am
Mitchell…some things are worth paying for, like not having to live next door to ‘you’.
April 17th, 2008 at 11:56 am
You guys are awfully tough on Mitchell. Be careful though. He has recently established relations with Boss Hogg.
April 17th, 2008 at 11:57 am
grim,
As home prices in NJ are approching its fair values, ypu should turn the tide and report positively on homes.
http://www.nationalcity.com/housevaluation
Ramesh
April 17th, 2008 at 11:58 am
BC Bob,
I think you should also turn the tide and report positively on homes.
http://www.nationalcity.com/housevaluation
Ramesh
April 17th, 2008 at 11:58 am
#122 Where did you get a stabbing or shooting would shut down the mall? Heck it doesnt stop WoodBridge mall.
Its just a prediction for Xanadu that someone will be shot and stabbed within a short amount of time. Gambling/drinking next to shopping? Mix well.
What would the incentive be to people to go to Jersey Gardens after Xanadu opens? Avoid crowds? Lack of crowds don’t help malls.
It will be like sea view square mall the lack of mall traffic will kill the mall.
April 17th, 2008 at 11:59 am
“But a bad mall in North Jersey is worth more than $100 million.”
Although that’s not impressive if it cost $1B to build.
April 17th, 2008 at 12:03 pm
OT,
Found a flyer in Manhattan yesterday which was advertising “Investment Banking Bootcamp”. I thought it was kind of amusing. Apparently they train you for P.E. jobs as well though, so I’m sure it’s a bargain.
April 17th, 2008 at 12:03 pm
Ramesh
As home prices in NJ are approaching its fair values
we are not approaching anything of the sort yet. when housing in nj approaches an average of 3X income or less then we can talk. I am talking about 2000 prices
April 17th, 2008 at 12:03 pm
make [121],
Despite the March blow out, the DJ-AIG, Reuters/Jeffries and GSCI are all busting out to new highs. Some may argue the boat is over-loaded. That’s OK, when this occurs, the late comers get thrown overboard. Others can protect themselves with a life preserver. On the flip side, I would imagine that it is tough going for the rowers on the the other boat, going against the tide.
April 17th, 2008 at 12:04 pm
Ramesh,
One should be wary of home valuations advertised by a bank which happens to depend on selling loans for its survival.
Sort of like buying pot from a homeless man.
April 17th, 2008 at 12:09 pm
I think you should also turn the tide and report positively on homes.
Ramesh [128],
I was a bull from 1985-2005. That was then, this is now. The tide has just started to turn. By the way, I have spoken positively in regards to housing. You should have been with me in 9/05. While the herd was bidding up, I was running to cash a check. How positive is that?
April 17th, 2008 at 12:10 pm
One of my best friends and an uncle work for NatCity back in Ohio. Both still have jobs but are pretty nervous.
April 17th, 2008 at 12:11 pm
Wildy OT:
I’ve got an entry-level position open and I’m just shocked at some of the “stuff” that’s walking in.
A few words of advice…
Spellcheck your resume.
Don’t wear a sweater that cannot contain both b00bs with jeans that almost show pubic hair.
Don’t wear call me 50 times for directions. Then another 50 times to ask what to do when you get there. Then another 50 times to make sure we have pens.
Don’t call me and purrrr into the phone you want an interview with “da boss-man”…
Don’t assume we’re interviewing every last chromosome carnage that comes thru and fills out an application…fill out an application and leave it.
Don’t ask to use the bathroom 7 times while you fill out a 2 page application.
Yes, being convicted of a felony is NOT a good thing. Sorry.
“Watching golf on TV” is not a sport. Golf may be, but not watching it.
Don’t beg for a job becuase otherwise you’ll be locked up for child support for 4 of your 7 kids. (It’s good to know that you’re up-to-date with child support on 3 kids…)
Do not drink before you come to apply. Being flammable is not a job prerequisite.
Please don’t wear shirts that exlaim how’d you like to kill everyone. For that fact, please wear a shirt! And don’t wear flip-flop-flip-flop-flip-flops…
Please take some sort of shower or bath before you come. Stringy hair and yesterday’s outfit is out.
Please find a babysitter before you come to apply. Having 4 kids running around you is not a good way to start off…
/rant off.
April 17th, 2008 at 12:13 pm
#127 Ramesh
I hope your not invested in NationalCity bank.
Got to go with kettle1 3x income or less.
Given NJ tax, insurance, fuel costs I might put that at 2.5x.
April 17th, 2008 at 12:17 pm
spam [137],
LMAO. It must be contagious, I see the same.
April 17th, 2008 at 12:17 pm
Current available middle/working class house sales/comps in Bucks County:
Flipper/granite 4/2 $250,000 /$4000 taxes
Ready to Remodel 4/2 $190,000 /$4000 taxes
I’d say, at least in Central NJ, prices need to come down to 2.5, as well, Mitchell.
April 17th, 2008 at 12:18 pm
#137 - Don’t wear a sweater that cannot contain both b00bs with jeans that almost show pubic hair.
Let’s not get hasty here….
Also, pics pls kthx.
April 17th, 2008 at 12:20 pm
National City? You mean the bank that got subprime and mortgage-backed so wrong that they’ve effectively put themselves out of business? A bank whose stock currently trades at 7 dollars, down from $38? Not to mention the fact that it trades solely on hopes of a takeover.
Somehow, I wouldn’t feel right taking my cues from Nat. City management.
April 17th, 2008 at 12:23 pm
Hell, even the $500m that was gifted to them from the Visa IPO couldn’t even help their position.
April 17th, 2008 at 12:26 pm
#137 I think if you violate any of those you the state should be able to deny your unemployment check because you simply aren’t trying to get a job.
I love the ones who ask how many sick/vacation/holidays they receive during the interview. Might as well say that your not that reliable when you have paid day coming to you.
My other favorite ones are the people who answer their cell phones or read their blackberry during an interview. Leave them in the car.
April 17th, 2008 at 12:27 pm
“You mean the bank that got subprime and mortgage-backed so wrong that they’ve effectively put themselves out of business?”
JB,
Easy. Ramesh[BIA] must have looked at the charts, upside down.
April 17th, 2008 at 12:28 pm
First Franklin origination quality, need I say more?
April 17th, 2008 at 12:28 pm
http://www.philly.com/inquirer/business/20080417_Advocacy_key_to_Philadelphia_foreclosure_plan.html
Advocacy key to Philadelphia foreclosure plan
April 17th, 2008 at 12:30 pm
NCC is still a good bet on bond side, trading at 80 cents on a dollar, some white knight up in Canada will buy the damm thing like two buck chuck and screw the shareholders.
More importantly I am going to hit auto auction next month when to pick up a 2006 or 2007 BMW. The 528i/528ix or 530i/530ix.
The 530 has a slightly larger engine and x is all wheel drive.
Is it worth it to spend a few extra thousand to move from the 528i up to the 530ix? Is the BMW a good car. E class is unreliable and my other choice the 2008 CTS is not showing up at the auctions, and the saabs/volvo/lexuses are a little boring.
3 series can’t get kids in backseat and 7 too expensive.
Just want to take advantage of recession to trade up cars.
April 17th, 2008 at 12:30 pm
On economics…
what are some of the opinions here as to whether we are facing significant yet vanilla inflation, or as suggested in an article posted earlier in the week, deflation masked as inflation by the crumbling dollar?
April 17th, 2008 at 12:30 pm
spam
loved it (still lol)
April 17th, 2008 at 12:34 pm
I had a guy I interviewed who told me he was running late so he decided it was to better to be on time than to stop and shower and be late.
He had a brand new suit on over the same dirty underware from the day before and the swampass almost knocked me off my seat once I closed the conference room door. When I complained to HR they said they pre-screened him on the phone so how would they know he was stinky.
April 17th, 2008 at 12:35 pm
John unless you get snow tires for the 5 then go with the X. Oh and 17 - 25mpg thats going to be a hefty gas bill when gas is close to or over $5/gal in summer 09. Actually that would be $6/gal or more for the premium fuel that the 5 takes.
April 17th, 2008 at 12:36 pm
Ramesh,
I am a Realtor(r), I sell houses.
I know, hard to believe, right?
I call it how I see it, and I’m looking forward to the market recovery. But I just don’t see it yet. Not to say there aren’t deals out there, there are always opportunities, but they take a savvy eye to spot.
April 17th, 2008 at 12:40 pm
Maybe were looking at this wrong.
National City bank believes those areas are valued right then they must be approving zero money down loans to finance in those low risk areas. Right? ;)
I guess no risk mortgaging is back!
LOL
Someone want to call and spoof they want to buy a 400K home with no money down on a 45K salary in a low risk area and see what National City has to say? But your website says? Yea thats a bit overboard but their website analysis started it first.
April 17th, 2008 at 12:41 pm
grim and bob,
I have been following National city valuation for last 5 years. They were pretty correct. In 2005 They correctly mentioned that houses in NJ are overvalued by 30% plus. I did not buy based on that report. I just bought one home in NJ. planning to but one at the end of year in DC. I feel it is part patriotic and part opportunistic to buy now.
Ramesh
April 17th, 2008 at 12:41 pm
On gas,
We are about to face an interesting dilemma. As gas prices rise, a significant portion of the population is going to be stuck with fuel prices that are becoming untenable, but with the job market down, stuck in their present commute. The only thing available to the majority of people is to cut consumer spending. A small % may move to reduce commuting, but i am skeptical that that would be practical for the majority for a number of reasons, such as job availability housing availability etc.
April 17th, 2008 at 12:41 pm
JP looking to raise $6 bil in capital?
April 17th, 2008 at 12:41 pm
I feel it is part patriotic and part opportunistic to buy now.
Ramesh
RE101?????
April 17th, 2008 at 12:44 pm
John [151],
I had a guy come in 2 hours late. He said, sorry, I was delayed in another interview. He came in with his visitor’s pass, competitor, still on his jacket.
April 17th, 2008 at 12:44 pm
That old gag? Like accidentally handing over a competitor’s offer letter under your resume.
April 17th, 2008 at 12:45 pm
re: (156) Kettle1
Have you been in a restaurant for dinner during the week lately?
April 17th, 2008 at 12:47 pm
Kettle [156],
That’s why they are walking away from houses. It’s too damn expensive to drive away.
April 17th, 2008 at 12:47 pm
NJ to review plans to build first new nuclear plant in US since 1973
New Jersey will review plans to build the first new nuclear plant in the United States since 1973.
A proposal released Thursday by Gov. Jon S. Corzine’s office calls for reviewing the site, permits, financing and waste disposal issues.
The plan is part of Corzine’s effort to reduce greenhouse gas emissions. No site has been selected.
The proposal is included in a draft energy master plan that will be subjected to public hearings before getting final approval.
April 17th, 2008 at 12:49 pm
“I feel it is part patriotic and part opportunistic to buy now.”
Ramesh,
I would suggest, get out your flag and buy. You have the pick of the litter. Oh, one other item. After closing, fly the flag at half mast.
April 17th, 2008 at 12:51 pm
re: (151)
I had a guy a few years back during the dot com boom who arrived for his interview with a a McDonalds bag in hand and really bad BO.
This slob them proceeeds to eat his sausage McMuffin during the interview.
April 17th, 2008 at 12:51 pm
grim 165 in moderation. thanks
April 17th, 2008 at 12:54 pm
BC (99)-
All the time; World Sports Exchange, on the net. You can buy election/American Idol futures there, too.
Good fun.
April 17th, 2008 at 12:55 pm
ket,
I talked to a few dealers about trading in my SUV. I couldn’t believe the low trade-ins they were offering. Most all of them said the same thing, nobody wants them and everyone wants to get rid of them.
Based on the quoted trade in amount, and the price of the car I was interested in, it makes no sense for me to buy a higher mileage car. The loss I would need to take dramatically outweighs any cost savings.
Makes more sense for me to guzzle gas and drive this thing into the ground.
So be it.
April 17th, 2008 at 12:56 pm
BC ,
No why?
April 17th, 2008 at 12:58 pm
Kettle [168],
???
April 17th, 2008 at 12:58 pm
Snow tires? Not since I had a 1969 Plymouth did I have a car with smow tires!! I better get the X.
April 17th, 2008 at 12:59 pm
#127 ramesh: grim is reporting positively, the more prices decline, the more positive news for housing, simple as that.
Funny when I clicked on NJ for my market analysis, it came up with Edison;bi is that you?
April 17th, 2008 at 1:00 pm
That’s it! I am headed to National Wholesale Liquidators to purchase a 99 cent chinese made american flag from an indian run store to boost the economy and show my love for America!!!
April 17th, 2008 at 1:01 pm
Grim,
We have an SUV too. Need it for the landlording, but drive the 95 Civic on long trips. Ya just got to figure out a way to take less drives I guess.
April 17th, 2008 at 1:01 pm
Is it worth it to spend a few extra thousand to move from the 528i up to the 530ix? Is the BMW a good car. E class is unreliable and my other choice the 2008 CTS is not showing up at the auctions, and the saabs/volvo/lexuses are a little boring.
++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++
outstanding cars. you’ll never want another brand after you drive one for a while. Handle like a dream. X is the only way to go.
April 17th, 2008 at 1:04 pm
167 grim
good point, another reason why i think there may be some unexpected issues with people caught between not being able to afford gas but having no choice because they have to get to work.
if you are buying new and are not as wealthy as john then it would be silly to touch a land yacht gas gussler
April 17th, 2008 at 1:05 pm
Actually more gas gets used if you trade in your SUV for a smaller car. The dealer will just sell the SUV to another person and it will continue to suck away, but now since you bought a new car their are two cars on the road your brand new one and your old SUV. Plus the amount of fuel and material used to make your new car.
Unless we do what california did in the 1980s when they paid people to crush their large gas guzzing smog causing land yachts people trading in SUVs to buy new cars only makes the problem worse.
April 17th, 2008 at 1:06 pm
Sorry BC
i meant 161 Sean.
# Sean Says:
April 17th, 2008 at 12:45 pm
re: (156) Kettle1
Have you been in a restaurant for dinner during the week lately?
i have not been in a restaurant in the last week. why do you ask?
April 17th, 2008 at 1:08 pm
John - Bimmer
I’ve got a 5 year old 325i. Not sure of the suspension options on the 5 series, but you can’t get sport suspension on the 3 series w/ ix. The reason for getting a BMW is the handling and top tuned suspension. BMW RWD w/ winter tires is the way to go. Never had a problem driving in snow, unless really deep. Even than i’m sure an ix is not that much of an advantage. Tires make a world of difference. Might as well get dedicated SUV for clearance on heavy snow and w/ wide tracked SUV type tires. 3 series is cramped for kids and car seats, as I’m now finding out, but 5 series is only marginally larger. For myself the time is coming where I need to upgrade to a minivan (Odyssey) or an 7/8 seat crossover (Acadia). Than I will get a smaller 4 seat coupe as a play car.
April 17th, 2008 at 1:08 pm
spammy (137)-
I should send my old secretary your way. Everything was going great until her ex-boyfriend came to my office one day to beat her up for stealing his credit cards and running up 5K of Mary Kay products on them.
She couldn’t understand why I fired her (after I called the cops to extract his hand from the knot of her hair he had gripped in a death-lock).
April 17th, 2008 at 1:10 pm
Anyone been watching the airlines lately? I would like to once again state my prediction that air travel will be for the business traveler and the affluent within 10 years. I cannot find the link, but i have seen calculation that airlines cannot afford to maintain current operations at oil above $100.
Dont get me wrong there will always be air travel, but airlines have reached the point where they have to start increasing fares to keep up with fuel costs.
April 17th, 2008 at 1:11 pm
I am X all the way!!!
A late model 60K new Escalade that is marked down to 30K has priced in a savings of 30K. If the cost of fuel over the life of vehicle has only risen 10K driving an Esclade makes more sense now then when the price of gas was cheaper.
This is no different then when I was in high school, fuel shot up and gass guzzlers could litterally be bought used for $500 bucks while a used economy car was almost $2500 bucks. All the college kids bought big old american cars and just spent the extra five or ten bucks a week as it was less out of pocket and they were only going to keep them for a year or two. Plus we took turns being the designated driver so I only drove my boat maybe once a month as we could cram five or six into our cars.
April 17th, 2008 at 1:11 pm
John - Car auctions.
Oh yeah. My 3 series was bought at auction for a great price. Dealer bought it for me after a blizzard and crowd was thin. Ended up getting a 1 yr. old car w/ 17k miles for 63% off MSRP.
April 17th, 2008 at 1:11 pm
John - meant to say “of MSRP”
April 17th, 2008 at 1:16 pm
“bi is that you?’
3b,
Are you saying that Ramesh is bi?
April 17th, 2008 at 1:19 pm
re: (178) It is warm out now, resturants should be packed during the week, take a drive or a stroll this evening by as many resturants as you can.
The sheep are waking folks.
April 17th, 2008 at 1:22 pm
rameesh (155)-
“I feel it is part patriotic and part opportunistic to buy now.”
Feeling patriotic? Join the Army, and go kill some Iraqis.
April 17th, 2008 at 1:23 pm
Maybe were looking at this wrong.
National City bank believes those areas are valued right then they must be approving zero money down loans to finance in those low risk areas. Right? ;)
I guess no risk mortgaging is back!
I know you are joking, but in all honesty, these products don’t work in “fairly valued” markets; just look at the problems in the rust belt areas where they had access to crazy financing, but didn’t get much home price appreciation.
These products only work (temporarily) in an environment of rapidly rising prices where its possible continually refinance or sell to the next guy.
April 17th, 2008 at 1:23 pm
VNO Chairman and CEO sells $22M in stock on Friday. Not a good sign!
CRE REITS are holding up well because it appears to be the only safe place to chase dividend yields. When the drop in consumer spending begins to impact vacancy rates, look out below! Just as the market is forward looking, REITS tend to have a lag before current ec