Wed 23 Apr 2008
LoanPerformance: NJ home prices down 5-10%
Categories: Housing Bubble , National Real Estate , New Jersey Real EstateFrom First American CoreLogic:
First American CoreLogic Releases Febuary 2008 LoanPerformance House Price Index
(click to enlarge)
Philadelphia, PA CBSA
3-Month -1.47%
12-Month -1.14%
Edison, NJ CBSA
3-Month -1.36%
12-Month -4.67%
New York-White Plains-Wayne, NY-NJ CBSA
3-Month -0.80%
12-Month -3.34%
“Thirty-three states now show year-over-year real estate declines according to this latest LoanPerformance HPI release,” said Mark Fleming, chief economist for First American CoreLogic. “However, on a quarter-over-quarter basis, there are now thirty-eight states with decreasing property values,” added Fleming.
April 23rd, 2008 at 6:30 am
NJ can finally be a red state.
April 23rd, 2008 at 6:43 am
From the WSJ:
Libor Hits U.S. Borrowers
Proposed New Version Of Rate Might Help Cut Americans’ Costs
By CARRICK MOLLENKAMP and MARK WHITEHOUSE
April 23, 2008
The troubles of banks in Europe are pushing up an interest rate widely used in the U.S., prompting the idea of a U.S.-based alternative to that rate, known as the London interbank offered rate, or Libor.
The problem: Payments on trillions of dollars in U.S. corporate and mortgage loans are set according to dollar Libor, but only three of the 16 banks that contribute their borrowing costs to calculate the rate are based in the U.S. That means the financial difficulties of European banks are having an outsized effect on U.S. borrowing costs, and could complicate the Federal Reserve’s efforts to bring those borrowing costs down.
European banks’ “demand for dollar funding is likely to raise dollar Libor and result in higher borrowing costs for everyone from [General Electric Co.] to the average homeowner, even as the Fed is lowering the fed-funds rate further,” says Scott Peng, an interest-rate strategist at Citigroup Inc. In a recent report, Mr. Peng proposed the creation of a “NYbor” index, which would track the borrowing costs of U.S. banks only.
A significant gap between borrowing rates reported by European and U.S. banks has opened up since last week, when many banks started raising their reported Libor rates. The banks’ moves came as the British Bankers’ Association, which oversees Libor, said it was investigating bankers’ concerns that their rivals were understating their actual borrowing costs to avoid looking desperate for cash.
April 23rd, 2008 at 6:44 am
From Bloomberg:
Ambac Posts Loss on CDO Writedowns, New Business Drop
Ambac Financial Group Inc., the world’s second-largest bond insurer, posted a wider loss than analysts estimated after being crippled by writedowns for guarantees on subprime-mortgage securities.
The first-quarter net loss was $1.66 billion, or $11.69 a share, compared with $213.3 million, or $2.04, a year earlier, the New York-based company said today in a statement. The company’s operating loss of $6.93 a share was larger than the $1.82 estimated by six analysts surveyed by Bloomberg.
Ambac, which was stripped of one of its three AAA ratings this year, was “severely impacted” by the plunging value of mortgage- related guarantees, interim Chief Executive Officer Michael Callen said in the statement. Ambac’s new business slumped 87 percent and the company took a $1.04 billion provision for losses on mortgage securities. Ambac insured 1 percent of municipal bonds sold in the quarter, according to Thomson Financial.
“Ambac’s franchise has been damaged by recent ratings pressure and negative publicity,” Barclay’s Capital analyst Seth Glasser wrote in a research report this week.
April 23rd, 2008 at 6:45 am
From the WSJ:
States Fault Effort to Stanch Foreclosures
By RUTH SIMON
April 23, 2008
Efforts by mortgage-service companies and government officials to address the nation’s mortgage crisis have done little to stanch rising foreclosures, state officials said in a report released Tuesday.
The study, compiled by the State Foreclosure Prevention Working Group, made up of banking regulators and attorneys general in 11 states, found that seven out of 10 borrowers who are seriously delinquent on their mortgages aren’t on track to receive any kind of help with their payment problems.
The number of delinquent borrowers working with their lenders has increased, the report found, but overall increases in the number of delinquent loans have outstripped those gains. The proportion of borrowers who weren’t engaged in any sort of loan workout was unchanged from the group’s previous report in February.
“While there’s been a lot of effort put in by mortgage servicers and government officials, there has been little change in outcomes for homeowners,” said Mark Pearce, deputy banking commissioner for North Carolina. “We’re still treading water.”
April 23rd, 2008 at 6:48 am
From the Philly Inquirer:
Region’s home sales continue to decline
In the eight-county Philadelphia region, year-over-year sales fell 32.8 percent last month from March 2007, according to Prudential Fox & Roach HomExpert, which is based on data from Trend Multiple Listing Service.
The drop was less than in February, when HomExpert reported a year-over-year decline of 40.2 percent.
Median prices declined or were flat in all eight counties, HomExpert reported. HomExpert factors in Delaware counties and Mercer and Salem Counties in New Jersey in calculating the regionwide median price. That 12-county median showed a drop of 2.3 percent year over year.
“We’re seeing a continuation of the downturn that began in the fall after the subprime crisis in August,” said Steve Storti, Prudential Fox & Roach’s senior vice president for marketing.
“In the first half of 2007, sales were cycling down, but we were bumping along because we hadn’t been affected by the credit crunch,” Storti said in comparing this year’s numbers with 2007.
“The Philadelphia metro area has been dragged into the housing downturn, but the pain here will be much less pronounced than in many other regions of the country,” said Mark Zandi, chief economist at Moody’s Economy.com in West Chester. “The Philadelphia area never soared during the housing boom, and is thus not suffering as serious a bust.”
“The relatively modest price decline seems to support the view that since we didn’t see a major price rise, we will not see a large price decline,” said Joel F. Naroff, chief economist at Commerce Bancorp Inc., of Cherry Hill.
April 23rd, 2008 at 6:52 am
I hope rates go up in the US. I would rather buy a house for 300k at 8% then the same house for 600k at 6%. I can always refinance if/when rates drop, but the debt won’t go away.
April 23rd, 2008 at 6:55 am
Super news for NJ, from MarketWatch:
Schering-Plough plans 5,500 job cuts
April 23rd, 2008 at 7:02 am
“The relatively modest price decline seems to support the view that since we didn’t see a major price rise, we will not see a large price decline,” said Joel F. Naroff, chief economist at Commerce Bancorp Inc., of Cherry Hill.”
What’s major? Houses we looked at doubled in price from 1999 to 2005. What would be major?
April 23rd, 2008 at 7:05 am
Schering-Plough plans 5,500 job cuts
April 23rd, 2008 at 7:13 am
Ambac has 1.6 billion dollar loss
http://www.bloomberg.com/apps/news?pid=20601087&sid=a0YgRaG.IHIc&refer=home
April 23rd, 2008 at 7:14 am
From Bloomberg:
UBS Plans to Slim Down Investment Bank, Kurer Says
UBS AG, the European bank with the biggest losses from the U.S. subprime mortgage crisis, will reorganize its investment bank into a “slimmed-down version” to complement wealth management.
“Significant and relevant questions have been asked about the value of the `one bank’ integrated model,” Peter Kurer, nominated to replace Marcel Ospel as chairman of Switzerland’s largest bank, said in a prepared speech before today’s annual general meeting in Basel.
April 23rd, 2008 at 7:18 am
From Bloomberg:
UPS, FedEx Decline Points to Continuing Recession
Falling shipments at United Parcel Service Inc. and FedEx Corp., which together deliver 80 percent of packages in the U.S., show the economy is in a recession and unlikely to rebound this year.
April 23rd, 2008 at 7:23 am
From MarketWatch:
Mortgage applications fell 14.2% last week: MBA
Mortgage applications filed last week decreased a seasonally adjusted 14.2% compared with the week before, the Mortgage Bankers Association reported on Wednesday.
…
Refinance applications took a dive last week, dropping 20.2% compared with the previous week. Applications for mortgages to buy a home dropped 6.4%, the MBA said.
The four-week moving average for all loans was down 10.5%.
April 23rd, 2008 at 7:50 am
More from UPS, via MarketWatch:
UPS sees no sign of economic strengthening in Q2
UPS cites deterioration of U.S. economic activity
April 23rd, 2008 at 7:56 am
grim I was at SP for an interview at the begining of the year did not come away impressed. Scary stuff but most of it is non-essential (duplication of staff due to the Organon acquisition, buyouts, reorginization of their Puerto Rico sites, and contractors)I know someone in HR. Any way you slice it, that is still 5500 individuals not contributing to the economy or buying houses for that matter.
April 23rd, 2008 at 8:04 am
I guess Watanabe does not want us to turn Japanese? Little nervous holding our paper?
“TOKYO - Likening the U.S. credit crisis to a broken bathtub draining water, Japan’s financial services minister urged Washington on Wednesday to inject public money to fix the problem before it gets worse.”
“Sounding almost alarmist, Yoshimi Watanabe used unusually blunt language to warn that drastic action was needed to address the crisis that has battered global markets.”
“If there is a big hole in the bottom of the tub, no matter how much hot water you keep adding, you will never have enough hot water,” Watanabe said in an interview with The Associated Press.”
http://www.msnbc.msn.com/id/24269007
April 23rd, 2008 at 8:14 am
I wonder how many of the 5500 will
retire?
move out of state?
not be able to find employment in NJ?
I also wonder how many of the 5500 jobs are high paying ones at SP…
April 23rd, 2008 at 8:19 am
“If there is a big hole in the bottom of the tub, no matter how much hot water you keep adding, you will never have enough hot water,” Watanabe said
Good analogy, unfortunately, he’s didn’t go far enough, we don’t need a fix, we need a new bath tub.
April 23rd, 2008 at 8:20 am
tbw [17],
Probably all 250-500K. However, no need to worry. They are looking forward to the pink slip, heading to the links. After all, their spouse is pulling down 250-500K.
April 23rd, 2008 at 8:21 am
“we don’t need a fix, we need a new bath tub.”
bb [18],
LMAO.
April 23rd, 2008 at 8:42 am
BC Bob Says:
April 23rd, 2008 at 8:20 am
tbw [17],
Probably all 250-500K. However, no need to worry. They are looking forward to the pink slip, heading to the links. After all, their spouse is pulling down 250-500K.
I hope you are sarcastic.
Very few in big Parma are getting 250K… very few are getting close to 200K actually. So i’d say most people out of these 5500 were earning about 80-140K.
NJ do not need these poor, lazy low earning folks here anyways. Just listen to heavy-hitter. Hell even our own acting State Treasurer David Rousseau said so:
He noted higher wage earners predominately paid the state’s income taxes. He said the top 1 percent wage earners taking home more than $500,000 contributed to 40 percent of state’s income tax, while the 12 to 15 percent earning more than about $100,000 accounted for 80 percent of the tax.
“The other 80 percent, if they move out of the state it doesn’t really matter,” Rosen said. “It’s the high-income people who matter.”
http://www.pressofatlanticcity.com/186/story/115893.html
So I’d say get rid of all big pharma in NJ. NJ do nto need them . And while you are at itget rid of ALL manufacturing jobs, Seaport and Airport jobs as well…
April 23rd, 2008 at 8:43 am
US Taxpayers to Japan: F-off!
April 23rd, 2008 at 8:45 am
Existing Home Sales Charts
Check out link, also read comment at end.
http://seekingalpha.com/article/73501-existing-home-sales-charts
April 23rd, 2008 at 8:46 am
“If there is a big hole in the bottom of the tub, no matter how much hot water you keep adding, you will never have enough hot water,” Watanabe said in an interview with The Associated Press.”
Sounds like a recipe for deflation (i.e. the fed can’t dump money into the economy fast enough to keep pace with debt destruction). With oil at $188 and food going though the roof, there hasn’t been much talk of deflation lately. But, I suppose it’s possible if debt destruction picks up pace.
April 23rd, 2008 at 8:51 am
“Ambac’s franchise has been damaged by recent ratings pressure and negative publicity,” Barclay’s Capital analyst Seth Glasser wrote in a research report this week.
Yeah, and the toxic sludge on their books had nothing to do with it. Whatever….
April 23rd, 2008 at 8:58 am
“Don’t forget an important point about Shiller’s calculations - he is deliberately excluding the healthiest housing markets in the country from his database.”
Pretorius - this reads like an admission that NYC is not one of the country’s healthiest housing markets.
Also, why is it that you seem to claim the permanent health of the NNJ RE market on it’s proximity to NYC (or the permanent health of Hoboken, Weehawken and parts of JC on their proximity to Manhattan), but then claim that Schiller’s NYC numbers are irrelevant.
Illogical, that.
April 23rd, 2008 at 8:59 am
AH,
The call with the analysts went something like this:
“But we can’t understand why our models failed, according to the last three years of data, default rates on loans shouldn’t be this high. This is a shock, no one could have seen this coming.”
April 23rd, 2008 at 8:59 am
#8 Pat:The relatively modest price decline seems to support the view that since we didn’t see a major price rise, we will not see a large price decline,” said Joel F. Naroff, chief economist at Commerce Bancorp Inc., of Cherry Hill.”
Was he talking about NJ?????
April 23rd, 2008 at 9:04 am
No one could have predicted that the levees would fail.
April 23rd, 2008 at 9:10 am
What energy crisis?
From South Jersey News Online:
Gasoline and bicycle reported stolen from Lakeview Park
Someone stole approximately five gallons of gasoline from a pickup truck at a Lakeview Park residence overnight April 18.
April 23rd, 2008 at 9:14 am
Patient
Fitting at this time in your travels.
April 23rd, 2008 at 9:19 am
Al—Enjoyed the Gilbert and Sullivan yesterday.
April 23rd, 2008 at 9:27 am
Wow PeaceNow, just came to post the same thing. Creepy.
April 23rd, 2008 at 9:31 am
BC Bob [16] ,
Thanks for the link. Watanabe knows the tsunami of credit contraction that hit about yesterday is about to crush the Japs.
April 23rd, 2008 at 9:35 am
BC #16 -
“There’s a hole in my bucket, Dear Liza, Dear Liza”
April 23rd, 2008 at 9:48 am
While most investors are focused on the latest stock market rally, hidden from view is a monumental change that few recognize and fewer understand: Unprecedented amounts of old debts are coming due in America, and many are not getting refinanced.
Even worse, borrowers are going into default, lenders are taking huge losses, and outstanding loans are turning to dust.
The numbers are large; the government’s response is equally massive. So before you look at one more stock quote or any other news item, I think it behooves you to understand what this means and what to do about it …
http://www.moneyandmarkets.com/Issues.aspx?A-Monumental-Change-1686
April 23rd, 2008 at 9:54 am
29 grim
Speaking of the energy crisis, we saw a sign out front of a local slop joint yesterday that said “free gas with your order of Red Beans”.
April 23rd, 2008 at 9:57 am
I’m done cryin’ into my pillow.
My cats didn’t seem to care how sad I was, either. How even more depressing. :)
But I’m back to fight another day. Time to go work the phones and do some drive-bys with my machine gun.
Ahhhh…the lifestyles of the entrepreneur.
Who was it here who wondered why more people aren’t self-employed/entrepreneurs?
Let me tell you why over a liquid meal…
April 23rd, 2008 at 10:04 am
Good luck, spam.
April 23rd, 2008 at 10:17 am
38 Patient..
Thanks
April 23rd, 2008 at 10:21 am
Listening to NPR this morning. It appears that the first lady and her daughter are visiting Glen Rock today to promote their childrens book. The book is aimed at getting kids to read.
Is is bad of me to think that it might be better to drive up the road to Patterson, where they could find some kids that might actually need the book, instead of a neighborhood that scores in the 90s in the standard tests.
April 23rd, 2008 at 10:37 am
Jersey City observation:
I can see a large condo tower under construction on the JC waterfront from home. I happened to notice today that there wasn’t any crane next to it. Now maybe they’re at a point where they don’t need one anymore, but it didn’t look like there was anyone working on it anyway.
April 23rd, 2008 at 10:40 am
Heard on Bloomberg this morning on my way into work. “IRS Cancels Rules” and here I thought the little guy was going to get a tax break. Guess again….
Fannie, Freddie Losses May Be Mitigated as IRS Cancels Rules
By Ryan J. Donmoyer and Dawn Kopecki
Enlarge Image/Details
April 23 (Bloomberg) — Fannie Mae, Freddie Mac and other companies suffering as mortgage delinquencies rise won a two- year battle with the IRS yesterday, allowing them to use those losses to reduce their tax burden.
The Internal Revenue Service withdrew proposed regulations that had asserted that mortgage loans are capital assets and any losses from them could be used only to offset capital gains. The agency also said it wouldn’t challenge companies that count such losses against ordinary income.
The action also clears the way for Fannie Mae, Freddie Mac and other holders of defaulted loans to benefit from Senate- passed tax legislation that would allow companies to apply those losses against previous tax years to get immediate refunds. So far, 70 of the world’s biggest banks, securities firms and mortgage companies have taken about $290 billion in asset writedowns and credit losses since the beginning of 2007.
“This is a serious windfall,” said Christopher Whalen, managing director of Hawthorne, California-based Institutional Risk Analytics. “Essentially, the Street gets a $290 billion tax shelter they did not have available” under the earlier IRS position.
Tax law generally allows companies to “carry back” losses realized this year to previous years and get a refund for earlier taxes paid or apply them to later years, known as a “carry forward” to reduce future liability. Carry backs currently are limited to two years; the Senate legislation would temporarily expand that to four. A House panel passed a separate relief measure that doesn’t contain the provision.
`A Great Victory’
Winning the right to treat mortgage-loan losses as a loss against regular income is “a great victory for Fannie Mae,” which led lobbying efforts against the regulations, said Robert Willens, president of a New York tax-consulting firm and an expert on tax and accounting rules.
“It means that the losses they sustain on these instruments will be eligible for the four-year carry back, assuming that provision gets enacted,” Willens said.
The Senate passed the provision earlier this month as part of legislation intended to alleviate the housing crisis earlier this month.
For Fannie Mae, the withdrawal caps an almost two-year regulatory tussle with the IRS, which first issued the rules in August 2006. In comments to the tax agency later that year, the company called the proposed regulations “not sound tax policy” because they would force its effective tax rate to rise higher than the statutory 35 percent.
Congressional Testimony
The company testified against the rules at an August 2007 hearing along with the Mortgage Bankers Association, the American Bankers Association and McLean, Virginia-based Freddie Mac.
Fannie Mae spokesman Brian Faith and Freddie Mac spokesman Michael Cosgrove declined to comment. The IRS said it would continue to study the issue.
Though Washington-based Fannie Mae took the lead in opposing the rule, the IRS decision would benefit Wall Street firms and other investors that have billions in mortgage losses piling up in their books.
The entire industry would benefit since most of its profits are derived from ordinary income, not capital gains.
As the nation’s two biggest mortgage investors, Fannie and Freddie both posted record mortgage losses during the fourth quarter, $3.55 billion at Fannie and $2.45 billion at Freddie.
Fannie Mae and Freddie Mac collectively own or guarantee more than $5 trillion in U.S. mortgages, roughly 45 percent of the market.
To contact the reporters on this story: Ryan J. Donmoyer in Washington at rdonmoyer@bloomberg.net; Dawn Kopecki in Washington at dkopecki@bloomberg.net.
http://www.bloomberg.com/apps/news?pid=20601103&sid=acM0ZuOZVzQA
April 23rd, 2008 at 10:46 am
This post and link below is for Frank and why you should not be shorting Fannie or Freddie.
Our polticans can help but tinker with the “Free” {sarcasm off} markets, they are busy crafting new legislation to “regulate” or bailout Fannie Mae and Freddie Mac, it will probably be wrapped into a large, multifaceted “bailout” bill to address the nation’s housing crisis.
http://www.washingtonpost.com/wp-dyn/content/article/2008/04/22/AR2008042202865.html
April 23rd, 2008 at 10:52 am
UBS looking to cut 2,500 more jobs. HQ for them is in Stamford, but they do have a NYC office as well. Majority of these will be investment banking jobs, as this business has been sorely underperforming for them.
April 23rd, 2008 at 10:57 am
#45 hardplace: They also have a large faility in Weehawken.
April 23rd, 2008 at 10:57 am
HP,
To hell with the bankers, what does that mean for Graydon and Ellery?
April 23rd, 2008 at 11:00 am
43
Tit-for-tat. Every corporation should scream to be allowed to expense IT development work, etc.
Heck, let’s just get rid of all capitalization. Everything’s an expense.
No assets.
April 23rd, 2008 at 11:01 am
http://www.njmls.com/cf/details.cfm?mls_number=2802713&id=999999
House in Alpine NJ for under one million. It is the end of the world as we know it.
April 23rd, 2008 at 11:02 am
32; 33 That was NOT Al. No way.
April 23rd, 2008 at 11:04 am
3B- I’d assume ops are in Weehawken.
grim - Poor Graydon & Ellery who now will have to shop off the rack at, OMFG, Macy’s!
April 23rd, 2008 at 11:05 am
John 49 It is the end of the world as we know it “and I feel fine”.
April 23rd, 2008 at 11:06 am
Yea, it was chicagofiance’s impersonator - I asked him to post something for me as well.
He was pretty good
April 23rd, 2008 at 11:10 am
#51 hardplace: Ops and also s chunk of Fixed Income. UBS has very little prescence left in NYC.
April 23rd, 2008 at 11:14 am
UBS has very little prescence left
Prescience might be more fitting.
April 23rd, 2008 at 11:21 am
That Alpine house looks very prestigious
April 23rd, 2008 at 11:26 am
hey here’s a question for nobody in particular: How far away can one move from NYC and still reasonably commutte in? Pennslyvania? Rhode Island? Delaware? Or do you have to basically stay in NJ, Conneticut or NY state?
April 23rd, 2008 at 11:28 am
To hell with the bankers, what does that mean for Graydon and Ellery?
Mommy will just have to look in the closet for the old Nieman Marcus boxes to put the present in when they go to Mathis and Lainey’s birthday party at Radicchio’s next week.
No one has to know the jumper and sport suit was purchased at Nordstroms.
April 23rd, 2008 at 11:30 am
Anybody else see this?
SEC declines to tell Congress why it ended Bear probe:
http://www.marketwatch.com/news/story/sec-declines-tell-congress-why/story.aspx?guid=%7B02806827-4B3D-4662-AA05-64A140D32778%7D&dist=msr_1
April 23rd, 2008 at 11:31 am
Oh please Gary, you expect us to buy that?
The gift receipt always tells the truth.
April 23rd, 2008 at 11:39 am
Commission Rates for Realtors
What is the typical rate that contracts end up at ? 6% ? 5%? 4% ?
Thanks in advance
April 23rd, 2008 at 11:39 am
Whoa, check out MLS# 2802607 in Mahwah.
Very nice Manor for sale, can be yours for $10,995,000.
Taxes are $63,500 a year!
April 23rd, 2008 at 11:40 am
think it is haunted?
April 23rd, 2008 at 11:46 am
CNN Money today:
“Why should American taxpayers have to pay to bailout reckless lenders and borrowers?
The website Angryrenter.com, launched just last week, has a vitiation demanding that Congress not pass any bailout programs that reward risky borrowing and lending. To wit: “Let the free market sort it out!”
The petition is gathering 40 to 50 signatures per hour, according to spokesman Adam Brandon, who adds that the site is already getting 15,000 visitors a day. “
April 23rd, 2008 at 11:48 am
Interesting MLS ID# 2498353
http://www.realtor.com/search/listingdetail.aspx?sby=6&lid=1097317713
We had talked about this house a few weeks back.
This is one of two houses side by side in Sparta beside RT15. They were builders specials getting offloaded at firesale prices. The other unit (don’t have the MLS ID) is under contract. It will be interesting to see what it sells for.
April 23rd, 2008 at 11:52 am
gary Says:
“No one has to know the jumper and sport suit was purchased at Nordstroms.”
I thought Nordstroms WAS fancy.
Obviously I’m not socially acceptable.
I’ll just have to go back to hitting up aquaintances for Abercrombie hand-me-downs for my kids.
Or is A&F now passe?
April 23rd, 2008 at 11:53 am
Sean @ 44:
IMO, a bailout of Fannie and Freddie would be disastrous for the housing market as the interest rates would skyrocket.
April 23rd, 2008 at 11:54 am
#16,#34,#35
Do you know how severe the post bubble after 1992 in Japan was?
-Apprx. 20,000 a year killed themselves in the reason related with heavily debts for about 10 years since.
April 23rd, 2008 at 11:55 am
#49 - There is NO way that house is in Alpine. It doesn’t have pillars, a pool or a neo-Grecian statue in sight.
Must have snuck in under the town border or something.
April 23rd, 2008 at 11:56 am
[57] Steve
Depends on what you consider reasonable. And where you work.
Lots of folks commute from PA, including Phila, Main Line, and Bucks, on Amtrak. Cost is high though - currently 1,200 per month from Phila. and takes about 90 minutes. Further, no tax savings if you work in NY, so you get hammered on taxes if you live in Phila. If you work in NJ, however, and earn decent money, and can commute, lots of people get the trains in Bucks, Hamilton or Trenton and commute on the corridor. Work in Princeton? Even better–you can drive. This is because NJ and PA have a tax compact — you are taxed where you live, and Bucks has no income tax.
We “live” in Bucks and work in NJ, so I avoid NJ taxation for now. Saves us thousands each year in income taxes and insurance. Another reason I am in no hurry to buy.
April 23rd, 2008 at 12:04 pm
I actually tested the commute from Bucks to Newark-Penn yesterday. It took 1:20 door to door, including about 5 minutes of walking after I stepped off the train in Newark. This included a 20 min drive from Yardley, PA to Hamilton Station, and a 50min NJ Transit ride. It was longer than I thought, and I’m slightly despressed about it.
I was convinced that Bucks county was my ticket out of NJ. Back to the old drawing board.
April 23rd, 2008 at 12:04 pm
Steve [57]
I guess it depends on what you mean by resonable commute. When I was working in NYC, I would stumble across people who came in daily from both Penn and Del. It was more common to find people from Penn and Del who would come into the city for 2-3 days/week and work from home the other days. However, even if you can swing a couple of days working at home, it is no kind of life. You are looking at >2 hours one way. One little NJT delay and your lookig at 3 hours.
April 23rd, 2008 at 12:06 pm
Jamil - Angryrenter.com
Backed by FreedomWorks - grassroots org for lesser govt. Also looks like Steve Forbes has his hands in the organization. I’ve read some of his editorials and I’m all for his flat tax idea, especially after being hosed by the AMT.
April 23rd, 2008 at 12:09 pm
renting 24
After reading your post i had to quickly check bloomberg. I was wondering what major oil field ahd been taken out !!!
With oil at $188 and food going though the roof, there hasn’t been much talk of deflation lately. But, I suppose it’s possible if debt destruction picks up pace.
April 23rd, 2008 at 12:10 pm
HP: yep..BTW, AMT was originally “soak the rich” tax. This is how democrats forced this moronic tax.
As always, the tax ends up being a middle class tax.
April 23rd, 2008 at 12:10 pm
#44,
Bailout of Fannie or Freddie means shareholders get $2 per share, read some of the articles from Bear bailout. Also since when new legislation to “regulate” is a positive thing for a company?
The government can do anything they like but the bottom line is the same, until home prices move in line with incomes, nothing will help.
April 23rd, 2008 at 12:17 pm
patient (26)-
The first inkling of trouble Pret will sense will be the falling pole-ax that cleaves his head in two.
April 23rd, 2008 at 12:19 pm
Jamil - Middle class for around these parts…
In Oklahoma I would be filthy rich w/ a 5000 sq ft house and a big pool.
April 23rd, 2008 at 12:21 pm
#64 Jamil
I just signed in. I am an angreehomeowner.
April 23rd, 2008 at 12:23 pm
grim (27)-
“…default rates on loans shouldn’t be this high…”
Did this analyst begin the call by saying there’d be no more writedowns, then offering up bad stock tips?
April 23rd, 2008 at 12:27 pm
Yep, said there was no need to raise capital either.
April 23rd, 2008 at 12:28 pm
spammy (38)-
I didn’t have gray hair and listened to Up With People all the time.
Then, I started my own business.
Drink has no effect on me anymore, and I have no taste for drugs, so I just grind my teeth a lot.
April 23rd, 2008 at 12:29 pm
PGC (41)-
Those two broads wouldn’t make it outta Paterson in one piece.
April 23rd, 2008 at 12:30 pm
Sean (43)-
Wow. What a surprise.
[yawn]
April 23rd, 2008 at 12:31 pm
Sean (44)-
We’d have to be as thick as Pret to not see what’s coming now.
Fannie/Freddie have been prepped as the quintessential bankruptcy/bailout vehicles.
April 23rd, 2008 at 12:32 pm
http://www.njmls.com/cf/details.cfm?mls_number=2802713&id=999999
How the h#e!! is anyone supposed to cook in this kitchen, in Alpine? Look at the kitchen table and the stove. What a joke. But at least the countertops make up for the disaster of a layout.
April 23rd, 2008 at 12:33 pm
grim (47)-
“To hell with the bankers, what does that mean for Graydon and Ellery?”
I think their prep schools had better start laying on the Steinbeck. Might also help if they learn some Woody Guthrie tunes at their Kindermusik classes.
April 23rd, 2008 at 12:36 pm
“Existing home sales are ’stable’ and we believe we’ve reached a bottom,” said Lawrence Yun, chief economist for the real estate agents’ trade group.
“It must have been a spark from an extinguished camp fire that set off the minor blaze,” said William Tecumseh Sherman, Civil War humanitarian.
April 23rd, 2008 at 12:36 pm
# 57 “hey here’s a question for nobody in particular: How far away can one move from NYC and still reasonably commutte in? ”
On a recent flight, I got talking to the woman sitting next to me and she commutes from Puerto Rico. She is a flight attendant for Jet Blue and is “based” out of JFK. It is a bit of an extreme commute but for her job it works; I guess it depends on the job and the working hours.
April 23rd, 2008 at 12:39 pm
gary (88)-
Please refrain from the mention of General Sherman.
That is a sore subject for many a Southerner.
April 23rd, 2008 at 12:40 pm
http://money.cnn.com/2008/04/23/news/companies/GE_crisis.ap/index.htm?postversion=2008042312
General Electric CEO Jeff Immelt said the U.S. economy is in the worst condition since the burst of the dot-com bubble and that housing hasn’t been in such dire straits since the Great Depression.
Did Jeff actually use the term, “dire straits?”
Come ooooonnnnnn.
April 23rd, 2008 at 12:42 pm
# 73 “especially after being hosed by the AMT”
Don’t uter thos evil letters anywhere near me. I despise the AMT, as currently applied, especially as it does not even come with a kiss while you receive your……..ing.
April 23rd, 2008 at 12:45 pm
With apologies to Queen Victoria and he rmother:
Taxpayer F, daughter of Mother F: Mother, I am scared about the AMT, how should I deal with it.
Mother F: Just bend over and think of the deficit.
April 23rd, 2008 at 12:46 pm
oops, utter, even
April 23rd, 2008 at 12:47 pm
Pat (91)-
Funny how Mr. Immelt came to this conclusion only after a deep reaming by his shareholders.
As late as mid-March, he was reaffirming GE’s 2008 outlook.
April 23rd, 2008 at 12:52 pm
MT: “I just signed in. I am an angreehomeowner.”
good for you. I’m a bitter renter. I cling to rentals because economy is bad because Messiah is not the president.
April 23rd, 2008 at 12:52 pm
But the president thinks he is, it seems.
April 23rd, 2008 at 12:55 pm
http://www.njmls.com/cf/details.cfm?mls_number=2802713&id=999999
Lets just shove all the junk against the wall.
April 23rd, 2008 at 12:57 pm
Evidently, Dubya’s descended to the level of game show appearances now. Deal or No Deal? Egads! Another sign of the endtimes, I guess.
Anyone else find a rich irony in the image of this dolt framed by the words “Deal/No Deal”?
http://tinyurl.com/5ltaey
April 23rd, 2008 at 12:58 pm
In regards to extreme commuting. Many years ago I was doing an audit at the old Cowan and Co on Old Slip. I was looking for a place to ditch a lot of audit files. Many years ago the company used to have receptionists who would take your coat and put it in this closet out in the hallway. Well those big closets are never uses anyomore. I found a clerk who lived in the poconos who worked a lot of OT living in the closet Monday night through Thursday night and would shower at NY Sports club nextdoor. He had a pillow and sleeping bag rolled up closet and a gym bag with tolietries and soem changes of clothes. Heck it make perfect sense to me. Work till 8pm hit the killerny rose for a sandwich and a beer and come back at 10pm for bed in the closet, get up at 6pm hit the gym and shower.
April 23rd, 2008 at 1:01 pm
John (100)-
Sure that “clerk” wasn’t you?
April 23rd, 2008 at 1:05 pm
Clot,
I’ve heard rumors on the street that he was the inspiration for Brantley Foster.
April 23rd, 2008 at 1:06 pm
#100 OMG, I had the same experience at an office I worked in. Except, it was a senior citizen. Fellow employee came in to work early one morning, found the senior lying in the middle of an office, arms crossed over chest - called to him and no response. Thought he had died… uhm nope. Had moved into the office (yes it had showers and a kitchen too!) his personal belongings were scattered thru various closets, as described. The company worked on finding him a place to live, he moved to one of the Salvation Army residences (most of which are on their way to being sold due to RE values). He was the holder of several patents.
April 23rd, 2008 at 1:07 pm
Actually, when I worked in a office building in NYC with an underground parking lot that had a bathroom we always wondered if someone could just pay the $400 a month to park their van (with a bed) in a corner spot near an outlet and just sleep down there.
April 23rd, 2008 at 1:08 pm
Grim #103 in moderation?
April 23rd, 2008 at 1:10 pm
http://www.imdb.com/media/rm2097716736/tt0093936
In Germany MBA programs Brantley Foster is a God.
April 23rd, 2008 at 1:20 pm
“Did Jeff actually use the term, “dire straits?””
Money for Nothing and the Chicks for Free?
April 23rd, 2008 at 1:21 pm
Somerville landfill upgrade unveiled
The market-rate units will range in price from $265,000 to $395,000. The affordable units will be approximately $65,000 for low-income residents and $115,000 for moderate-income residents. The average 1,000-square-feet apartments will rent for $1,750 per month.
April 23rd, 2008 at 1:22 pm
# 107 But enough about the executive compensation program over there.
April 23rd, 2008 at 1:23 pm
Al #21 is right. Schering Plough 5500 layoffs will hit mid-level people the hardest ($80,000 - $140,000), esp. if they are 50 or older (want to get rid of those “older” workers with the good benefits). Last week they all had to hand in their resumes again.
This will be the second round of layoffs in a few months (the one before this was in Feb./March). The workers are totally demoralized and depressed. It looks like Hassan will trim the workers, and then probably sell the company.
“Older” workers will not be able to find pharma jobs in NJ and will have to leave.
April 23rd, 2008 at 1:25 pm
So has this become the NJ elitist RE report? after some of yesterdays discussion it sounds like those poor uneducated suckers who comprise the middle and lower class should be happy with what is given to them by the rich and successful NY bankers and quit complaining.
While their may be a few people on this board who go home at night and smoke a cuban while their trophy wife/GF brings them a drink and the chauffeur buffs the german sports cars in the 5 bay garage, most people here are probably in the middle somewhere.
There will always be exclusive addresses, schools, restaurants etc. but a strong middle class is still an essential component of a healthy society. While we are all in the chase loung with the cuban and scotch, remember that maintianing a strong middleclass is all that lies between the traditional social structure in the US and smoking that cuban in you walled in estate surrounded by slums.
So please keep in mind that while no one expects the average teacher or mechanic to live in the middle of west haughtyville, that one of the key tenets of US society has been social mobility and the shunning of slum encrusted palatial estates
April 23rd, 2008 at 1:25 pm
#106 - Explains the difficulty I had with the Hasselhoff-Anderson options pricing model.
April 23rd, 2008 at 1:28 pm
re: (85) Clotpoll
re: “thick as Pret”
My warning to Frank seems to be going unheeded, see post 76.
April 23rd, 2008 at 1:28 pm
Sinking housing market maroons U.S. homeowners in unfinished projects
Apr 15, 2008
EGG HARBOR TOWNSHIP, N.J. — At the new community of Seapine Estates, street names like Sea Foam Drive and Shoreline Road are meant to evoke a feeling of coastal tranquility. Instead, the two dozen or so residents of this New Jersey Shore development, near Atlantic City, feel anything but peace. The Pennsylvania builder went bankrupt last summer and halted work, leaving open foundations, unfinished homes and empty streets that have invited outsiders to dump trash, spray graffiti and race cars.
Ken Bachman, 37, who lives on a half-empty street in Seapine, feels trapped. When he leaves the house every day, he has to look at an unsightly, unfinished home across the street. Bankrupt Elliott Building Group of Langhorne, Pa., had planned more than 200 houses in the development with prices starting around $300,000, but residents say the community is only about a fifth occupied.
“It’s an undesirable place to live right now,” Bachman said. “Homes have been on the market for sale in here for over a year and they’re just not selling, because who wants to move into a development that’s bankrupt?”
At the unfinished Seapine Estates, Denise and Kevin Urtubey, parents of a toddler, worry about the safety of their daughter. Cars have raced down the street in the middle of the night; a couple was found having sex toward the back of the development; tubs and other debris have been dumped in empty lots.
“It wouldn’t have happened if the neighbourhood’s completed. It’s not a dead-end street. It’s just that nobody’s back there,” said Denise Urtubey, 27.
“I don’t know what’s going to happen to the neighbourhood,” she said, wistfully. “It’s kind of sad that we won’t have all the people we were expecting to have.”
April 23rd, 2008 at 1:28 pm
ket - WTF set that off?
April 23rd, 2008 at 1:31 pm
i was annoyed by some of the ” not smart enough/ rich enough then get out” arguments yesterday.
Apparently i am not either one
April 23rd, 2008 at 1:32 pm
Kettle 1, According to the book the “millionaire next door” the number one profession of the spouse of a male millionaire is teacher. Given the fact the majority of teachers in NJ are females and plenty of school districts pay experienced teachers six figure salaries on top of the fact a high percentage of their husbands are millionires it is safe to say they ain’t broke.
However, it is safe to say that low paid mechanics do not generally have wives with good incomes or incomes at all. So I do feel bad for them.
April 23rd, 2008 at 1:34 pm
SG 114
At the unfinished Seapine Estates, Denise and Kevin Urtubey, parents of a toddler, worry about the safety of their daughter. Cars have raced down the street in the middle of the night; a couple was found having sex toward the back of the development; tubs and other debris have been dumped in empty lots.
Apparently Denise and Kevin need to google CALTROP. cheap and easy solution
April 23rd, 2008 at 1:34 pm
Kettle
You are either born rich, marry rich, win the lottery or earn it. Well you can’t make yourself be born rich and you can’t make yourself win lottery. If you decided not to marry rich you have left yourself with the hardest of the four ways to get rich which is like hammering a nail with your forehead.
April 23rd, 2008 at 1:36 pm
John: You compassion is Heart Worming !!!
April 23rd, 2008 at 1:36 pm
Kettle1:
Read Fooled by Randomness. You’ll start to feel a little better. Author’s underlying premise is that a lot of the rich are merely lucky.
April 23rd, 2008 at 1:38 pm
#113,
Sean, just because of you, I covered my Freddie puts today. I only made 50% on them.
I am not giving up on my Fannie puts just yet.
April 23rd, 2008 at 1:45 pm
can you help a fella out john?
http://tinyurl.com/5xr5zp
April 23rd, 2008 at 1:47 pm
Thanks for all the replies on the commute.
April 23rd, 2008 at 1:47 pm
ket - Ah. It was only John and that heavy hitter dude (hitting the sauce no doubt).
April 23rd, 2008 at 1:48 pm
#123 I would say cell phones have completely penetrated the market when homeles guys begging on the street have them.
April 23rd, 2008 at 1:55 pm
Beggars in central London are making on average £55 a day - more than workers’ average earnings, a survey found yesterday.
Some get enough from soft-hearted shoppers and commuters to go home with £280 after a day begging in the West End.
http://tinyurl.com/52846n
Hmmm maybe some a new career consideration
April 23rd, 2008 at 1:57 pm
re: 122 Frank - no credit needed, just a fair warning in a rigged game. Send a few ducets to Grim once you feel you are on the right side of the bet on this one.
April 23rd, 2008 at 2:00 pm
GBP 73,000 a year with no boss. And, one can work anyplace.
April 23rd, 2008 at 2:04 pm
John Says:
Given the fact the majority of teachers in NJ are females and plenty of school districts pay experienced teachers six figure salaries on top of the fact a high percentage of their husbands are millionires it is safe to say they ain’t broke.
Not to be rude, but this is irrational nonsense.
April 23rd, 2008 at 2:06 pm
Shore Guy Says:
April 23rd, 2008 at 2:00 pm
GBP 73,000 a year with no boss. And, one can work anyplace.
And no Dress Code :) - commuting expenses are low as well….
In some thirld world contries beggars are quite rich and pay their share to the local mob/police for premium locations.
April 23rd, 2008 at 2:06 pm
BC,
You might find this interesting
Rice, death and the dollar
http://atimes.com/atimes/Global_Economy/JD22Dj01.html
April 23rd, 2008 at 2:07 pm
Oh, Damn! I showered this morning, cant go to work today. Anyone got any wet dod odorant they can share?
April 23rd, 2008 at 2:07 pm
wet dog, even
April 23rd, 2008 at 2:09 pm
Great article,
Ponzi Squared:
No money down
No documentation of income
Initial below-market teaser interest rate
Negative amortization
That is not a loan, he said. Instead, it amounted to giving the home buyer a call option to buy the house at the current market price, coupled with a put option to sell the house back at that price.
If house prices kept rising, the “buyer” could make the small interest payments to keep the option open, and eventually sell the house. That happened for a time, and led to the conclusion by rating agencies that such borrowers were good risks.
But when prices went down, the “buyer” would suffer no loss if he exercised the put and gave the house to the lender. That is just what happened.
http://norris.blogs.nytimes.com/2008/04/17/ponzi-squared/
April 23rd, 2008 at 2:20 pm
#110 I touched base with a few people I know at Schering and two of them said if they lose their jobs they are moving. Both are renters and were saving for a home but if they are a part of the cuts they are throwing in the towel with NJ. One is going to Texas and the Other said he is going to North Carolina. There is another but he is trapped by his reduced house value which would be a comp killer for him if he moved so he is going to stick it out.
Both say they barely get called about job openings and second the pay rates on the jobs are lower than what they make now. Both said they received calls for out of state jobs more than for in the state of NJ. The one may jump to Texas anyway because the job offer pays slightly more than the job he has now and the dollar goes further in Texas than in NJ. I thought NJ paid 120K for a receptionist?
On Unemployment they will receive something like $457.00 a week. Both of which said they cant survive on that staying in NJ. But they can survive on that in TX and NC and they would have 6 months to find a job while collecting.
You have to wonder of the 5,500 being laid off. What percentage will not remain in NJ and return to NJ workforce and provide a NJ state income tax for the state? This is just Schering Layoffs.
This can only mean the states economy will get worse as more layoffs hit the NY/NJ area and they even take the unemployment for 6 months elsewhere.
In Turn Corzine wonderful person he is will look to raise taxes again because of lost income taxes.
Hate me if you must but its reality. As I said yesterday the cost of surviving in NJ when they lose their job is thousands a month and unemployment doesn’t pay enough to float you sink quickly.
While it might be great to see a friend from Jersey more often the circumstances are indeed a poor reason.
Queue the nasty Carolina comments now but I think Texas might start to steal more NY/NJ people than NC.
April 23rd, 2008 at 2:21 pm
The professional beggar I pass every night in Trenton has realized appearances matter.
When he first took the job, maybe a year ago, he looked like a Katrina refugee. Nobody opened their windows.
Now, he dresses up. Nice loafers, cuffed dockers, collar turned up and a sweater. People hand the green right out the windows at the light.
He’s got to be pulling in a grand a week.
April 23rd, 2008 at 2:22 pm
#130 My wife’s parents fall into that exact scenario.
April 23rd, 2008 at 2:22 pm
When I was in London last month it was all arab and indian women toting infant children in traditional garb begging. The govt pays you to have kids adn they are on the dole and collect their begging cash each day. If London keeps it up this will be their last century as an english speaking country.
April 23rd, 2008 at 2:26 pm
I saw an article on Costco rationing rice sales yesterday, but didn’t post it. Apparently Walmart is following suit. Have we moved to food hoarding so quickly?
April 23rd, 2008 at 2:29 pm
#132 Kettle, that article is awesome!
Confirms that CIA are at it again in Tibet causing havoc. Meanwhile our gov’t is filtering US dollar reserves out of China by forcing them to trade for rice, otherwise the havoc gets worse.
April 23rd, 2008 at 2:32 pm
You have to wonder of the 5,500 being laid off. What percentage will not remain in NJ and return to NJ workforce and provide a NJ state income tax for the state? This is just Schering Layoffs.
I also wonder, once this recession is over and companies begin hiring again, how many of these lost jobs will return to NJ?
It’s one thing to transfer existing employees and have to deal with headaches and expenses of relocations. It’s much easier however, to simply create new jobs in a more business friendly location during the next expansion.
April 23rd, 2008 at 2:36 pm
82 clot
“Drink has no effect on me anymore”
Not for lack of trying, I’m sure.
April 23rd, 2008 at 2:38 pm
I always wondered what those middle management people do at drug companies in NJ anyhow? Did a project their for a week a few years ago and they was a lot of middle aged guys in cubes pushing paper all over the place. Had no clue what it had to do with R&D, making drugs or selling them. Lottsa Logistics and QA type office space jobs. Can’t they do that stuff in somewhere cheap like Tampa?
April 23rd, 2008 at 2:45 pm
Beggars - with a twist and a somersault.
Last fall there were a group of preteen and teenage girls from Jersey City collecting “donations” for their cheerleading team right on on the ramp leading from the Turnpike to the Holland Tunnel. There is a traffic light there and a good few cars would stop every minute or two and the girls would run around the stopped vehicles in frenzy trying to collect as much as possible before the light changed to green. These young girls were dressed provocatively for their ages and their cheerleader outfits seemed to he hand made. They were filling up their coffee cans quite regularly and in fact they were there for many weeks during the evening rush hour. One day I noticed parked off to the side was a large fat woman dressed up in a Hajib who seemed to be watching and directing the girls. Seemed a bit strange to me that a woman of the Muslim faith would allow her child and other children under her watch to dress like that and collect money in what could be dangerous traffic, but then again the scammers will keep the game going as long as they are pulling in a quick buck.
April 23rd, 2008 at 2:45 pm
#139
John: Absolutely correct about london. They have the most idiotic asylum policy in the world. You can land at heathrow, tear up your passport and claim asylum. The socialist idiots, will gladly put you up at the tax payer’s expense for about a year while your asylum application is being heard and when it finally does get rejected,you go and find a cash job !!
April 23rd, 2008 at 2:49 pm
#136 “I think Texas might start to steal more NY/NJ people than NC.”
Not once they see it.
April 23rd, 2008 at 2:49 pm
#144: probably in an accounting type role. You can do well for yourself
April 23rd, 2008 at 2:50 pm
Sex with cows?
Only in NJ people. Only in NJ.
http://cbs3.com/topstories/officer.robert.melia.2.706410.html
April 23rd, 2008 at 2:51 pm
http://www.sfgate.com/cgi-bin/article.cgi?f=/c/a/2008/04/22/EDJK1097DC.DTL&ref=patrick.net
Kettle article
April 23rd, 2008 at 2:51 pm
NC and SC isnt utopia, I will take NJ thanks.
April 23rd, 2008 at 2:51 pm
..or upstate NY
April 23rd, 2008 at 2:53 pm
151 Upstate NY is nice but I wonder about the future of taxes there inasmuch as NY has a huge debt, a huge defecit, and the cash cow of Wall Street is sputtering.
April 23rd, 2008 at 2:56 pm
please sign up on
http://angryrenter.com/
to stop the bailout.
Zane
April 23rd, 2008 at 2:59 pm
Re 145 wow what a shock that the good decent honest folks who drove a plane into the side of WTC would be using girls to scam people out of money. I guess with fuel being so expensive their flight school classes have gone up in price.
April 23rd, 2008 at 3:10 pm
116 kettle
You and me both.
April 23rd, 2008 at 3:24 pm
John Says:
April 23rd, 2008 at 2:38 pm
I always wondered what those middle management people do at drug companies in NJ anyhow? Did a project their for a week a few years ago and they was a lot of middle aged guys in cubes pushing paper all over the place. Had no clue what it had to do with R&D, making drugs or selling them. Lottsa Logistics and QA type office space jobs. Can’t they do that stuff in somewhere cheap like Tampa?
Better yet - India and China????
April 23rd, 2008 at 3:36 pm
re: (153) Zane
The bailout will occur on its predetermined schedule, no amount of blogging is going to change things since they Democrats are at the helm now.
Fyi the site angryrenter.com is run by “Freedomworks” the same people who support Social Security privatization and the one thing they disire more than anything is to to build a nationwide “grassroots” army to pimp there causes.
They claim to non partisan and infact renters. Some how I do not belive Jack Kemp and Steve Forbers are renters.
If these folks really really want to stop the bailout they should be offering an alternative which they are not.
http://www.sourcewatch.org/index.php?title=FreedomWorks
April 23rd, 2008 at 3:45 pm
Tosh,
The WSJ had a column about stockpiling food as an investment alternative on Tuesday:
R.O.I.
By BRETT ARENDS
DOW JONES REPRINTS
This copy is for your personal, non-commercial use only. To order presentation-ready copies for distribution to your colleagues, clients or customers, use the Order Reprints tool at the bottom of any article or visit:
http://www.djreprints.com.
• See a sample reprint in PDF format.
• Order a reprint of this article now.
Load Up the Pantry
April 21, 2008 6:47 p.m.
I don’t want to alarm anybody, but maybe it’s time for Americans to start stockpiling food.
No, this is not a drill.
You’ve seen the TV footage of food riots in parts of the developing world. Yes, they’re a long way away from the U.S. But most foodstuffs operate in a global market. When the cost of wheat soars in Asia, it will do the same here.
Reality: Food prices are already rising here much faster than the returns you are likely to get from keeping your money in a bank or money-market fund. And there are very good reasons to believe prices on the shelves are about to start rising a lot faster.
“Load up the pantry,” says Manu Daftary, one of Wall Street’s top investors and the manager of the Quaker Strategic Growth mutual fund. “I think prices are going higher. People are too complacent. They think it isn’t going to happen here. But I don’t know how the food companies can absorb higher costs.” (Full disclosure: I am an investor in Quaker Strategic)
Stocking up on food may not replace your long-term investments, but it may make a sensible home for some of your shorter-term cash. Do the math. If you keep your standby cash in a money-market fund you’ll be lucky to get a 2.5% interest rate. Even the best one-year certificate of deposit you can find is only going to pay you about 4.1%, according to Bankrate.com. And those yields are before tax.
Meanwhile the most recent government data shows food inflation for the average American household is now running at 4.5% a year.
And some prices are rising even more quickly. The latest data show cereal prices rising by more than 8% a year. Both flour and rice are up more than 13%. Milk, cheese, bananas and even peanut butter: They’re all up by more than 10%. Eggs have rocketed up 30% in a year. Ground beef prices are up 4.8% and chicken by 5.4%.
These are trends that have been in place for some time.
And if you are hoping they will pass, here’s the bad news: They may actually accelerate.
The reason? The prices of many underlying raw materials have risen much more quickly still. Wheat prices, for example, have roughly tripled in the past three years.
Sooner or later, the food companies are going to have to pass those costs on. Kraft saw its raw material costs soar by about $1.25 billion last year, squeezing profit margins. The company recently warned that higher prices are here to stay. Last month the chief executive of General Mills, Kendall Powell, made a similar point.
[snip]
You can’t easily stock up on perishables like eggs or milk. But other products will keep. Among them: Dried pasta, rice, cereals, and cans of everything from tuna fish to fruit and vegetables. The kicker: You should also save money by buying them in bulk.
If this seems a stretch, ponder this: The emerging bull market in agricultural products is following in the footsteps of oil. A few years ago, many Americans hoped $2 gas was a temporary spike. Now it’s the rosy memory of a bygone age.
The good news is that it’s easier to store Cap’n Crunch or cans of Starkist in your home than it is to store lots of gasoline. Safer, too.
http://online.wsj.com/article/SB120881517227532621.html
April 23rd, 2008 at 3:58 pm
John (117),
Kettle 1, According to the book the “millionaire next door” the number one profession of the spouse of a male millionaire is teacher. Given the fact the majority of teachers in NJ are females and plenty of school districts pay experienced teachers six figure salaries on top of the fact a high percentage of their husbands are millionires it is safe to say they ain’t broke.
So let me see if I’ve got this straight….since most male millionaires have teachers for wives, most female teachers in NJ are married to millionaires?
April 23rd, 2008 at 4:30 pm
Actually, in my daughters elementary school 99% of the teachers are female and I would say 99% of them who are married have working husbands. On top of that since teachers in my school district are required to have masters and teacher are considered a great catch most have husbands with good jobs. Given that most women marry men who earn more than them and most teachers earn at least 90K it is safe to say the minimun annual household income of a teacher is 200K.
When I used to go to the Hamptons a lot when I was single the male I-bankers and traders etc. who worked a lot of hours and make a lot of money all eventually wanted to marry and have kids the last thing they wanted was to marry another workaholic but they wanted a wife who was educated and had a career for their little write up in the times. A pretty 27 year old single female elementary school teacher was a major major catch to a 70 hour a week wall street guy. She had her pick of the litter. I almost felt sorry for the girls at Goldman. The teachers with their summers off to hit the gym and the beach ruled the roost!!!! Females also spread this sterotype that teachers are a catch. I dated a pretty teacher once and OMG at a family wedding everyone was asking if we were getting married even though we were dating only four weeks. My Mom was fired up and my teacher cousin even cornered the girl to give her tips how to get in the family.
Funny part is a 27 year old elementary school male teacher who lives at home is considered a loser by both the men and women. It is no wonder their are hardly any male elementary school teachers.
April 23rd, 2008 at 4:40 pm
Re 145 wow what a shock that the good decent honest folks who drove a plane into the side of WTC would be using girls to scam people out of money.
Actually the people who did that were men. You know, like you.
April 23rd, 2008 at 4:41 pm
http://www.nytimes.com/2005/05/15/nyregion/15liteach.html?_r=1&oref=slogin
Good article bout six figure teachers. My sister already knows her raises for many years to come, she will easily be at close to 200K by the time she retires and then get a big pension and free medical for life.
April 23rd, 2008 at 4:43 pm
But there Moms are so proud of their martyr sons.
April 23rd, 2008 at 4:47 pm
Well, you know how men are…
April 23rd, 2008 at 4:53 pm
#160 John: I knew lots oF IB guys at Goldamn, and none of their wives were teachers. Many were stay at home Moms, or they had the big jobs too, doctors lawyers etc.
Perhaps that has changed, but I am amazed at how many people claim to know so much about Goldman, and yet never worked there.
I liked it much better when people who did not work on the street thought Goldman Sachs was a law firm or jewelry company.
And then you go on to say and I quote: “Given that most women marry men who earn more than them and most teachers earn at least 90K it is safe to say the minimun annual household income of a teacher is 200K.”
Where do you get this stuff from?
April 23rd, 2008 at 5:00 pm
I’ve been getting alot of emails from bloggers as to when I will be setting up my blog and post my articles & papers.
Soon my friends, its a work in process.
But when I do, the NJ bubble blog will be the first to know ; )
SAS
April 23rd, 2008 at 5:04 pm
3b, I actually interviewed at Goldman years ago and got turned down to work at Goldman as they told me I was overqualified. Turns out my friend works their now and it is near my office so I go to the cafteria with her and guess what I think I am overqualifed. Since the day John Thain a wasp became CEO over their and Goldman lost its title of jewish royality the place has lost its touch. Btw most teachers I know are stay at home wife’s you only need your MS to get your MRS. But they do teach until they have two kids and then call it quits.
April 23rd, 2008 at 5:05 pm
Also, just read a good book that helps to explan things about food and food prices.
Its called “The Omnivore’s Dilemma”
by Michael Pollan
SAS
April 23rd, 2008 at 5:09 pm
More Rice News:
Wal-Mart-owned Sam’s Club limits rice purchases
http://news.yahoo.com/s/ap/20080423/ap_on_bi_ge/wal_mart_rice
There better be some with my General Tso’s tonight!
April 23rd, 2008 at 5:10 pm
Rutgers has a program in resource management through Cook College. If I get canned tomorrow, that’s where I’m headed.
April 23rd, 2008 at 5:12 pm
They canceled the program as rutgers “right sized” the department.
April 23rd, 2008 at 5:14 pm
#167 John: when I worked at Goldman, I believe it was a different place than people believe it to be now.
It was quiet and understated, and most at least in the areas that I knew, did not take themselves that seriously.
And many of the most powerful,and most wealthy partners took the train home every evening. I used to see them at night, when I was still living in the Bronx,a nd rode up with many of them over the years. Of course in those daysnobody got off past 86th street.
One final note, before the firm went public, it was a huge battle,and it barely passed, as many of the partners did not want the firm to lose its specialness if you will. And it was special, and it has IMO lost it.
April 23rd, 2008 at 5:24 pm
Wow, stick around a place long enough and the punchlines start to write themselves…
April 23rd, 2008 at 5:27 pm
167:
‘I think I am overqualifed.’ ….’ most teachers I know are stay at home wife’s ‘
What are you overqualified for? Certainly not anything requiring communication or analysis skills.
April 23rd, 2008 at 5:30 pm
[71] daddyo
you’re in Gateway???
It is a tradeoff, taking NJT. You save hundreds but your commute isn’t any shorter. You could price the Amtrak from Trenton, but that isn’t going to be cheap and parking in Trenton is slightly more expensive. If you are working in Newark, and earning decent coin, the tax savings should cover your entire ticket though.
April 23rd, 2008 at 6:13 pm
#136 Michell,
We’re going to Texas this June for a look. If we like it we’re bailing out of NJ this year.
We like NC too, but we have family in Austin.
April 23rd, 2008 at 6:17 pm
From Reuters:
FHLB Chicago to stop mortgage-buying program
The Federal Home Loan Bank of Chicago on Wednesday said it would halt its program of purchasing mortgage loans, citing onerous costs.
The FHLB of Chicago will no longer make or renew commitments under the program after July 31, Matthew Feldman, acting president of the bank, said on the company’s website.
The bank in the past decade has been criticized for lax interest-rate risk management, in part due to the growth of the program known as the Mortgage Partnership Finance, or MPF, analysts said. The bank launched the program in the late 1990s to share the risk of managing mortgages with lenders.
April 23rd, 2008 at 6:23 pm
From MarketWatch:
Moody’s downgrades GMAC, ResCap ratings
April 23rd, 2008 at 6:32 pm
#169-SAS
Michael Pollan’s latest book “In Defense of Food” is another good one. So is Nina Planck’s “Real Food: What to Eat and Why”.
April 23rd, 2008 at 6:37 pm
bairen -
Austin is a great city. Humid as h@ll, but amazing nightlife.
April 23rd, 2008 at 6:47 pm
John Says:
Given the fact the majority of teachers in NJ are females and plenty of school districts pay experienced teachers six figure salaries on top of the fact a high percentage of their husbands are millionires it is safe to say they ain’t broke.
I wish i fit this scenario…i don’t.
April 23rd, 2008 at 7:30 pm
http://www.njmls.com/cf/details.cfm?mls_number=2802713&id=999999
House in Alpine NJ for under one million. It is the end of the world as we know it.
Odd place for a fireplace, no?
I have done zero homework on this house, but based on the basic specs, there’s no chance they get NEAR asking
April 23rd, 2008 at 7:34 pm
# daddyo Says:
April 23rd, 2008 at 12:04 pm
I actually tested the commute from Bucks to Newark-Penn yesterday. It took 1:20 door to door, including about 5 minutes of walking after I stepped off the train in Newark. This included a 20 min drive from Yardley, PA to Hamilton Station, and a 50min NJ Transit ride. It was longer than I thought, and I’m slightly despressed about it.
I was convinced that Bucks county was my ticket out of NJ. Back to the old drawing board.
That’s funny. We moved to Bucks recently and swore we were 30 mins from downtown Philly. We’ve been in twice now … 45 mins. And that’s doing 70 on the highway, no traffic. (Speaking of which - traffic in and around Philly is a joke. We gave ourselves all this time on a Friday afternoon to get to the airport early … and there’s no traffic. Don’t miss the NY traffic at all.)
April 23rd, 2008 at 7:37 pm
181 lishoosh,
Austin seems pretty interesting. With 2 little kids not sure how often we’d get to enjoy the nightlife, but there’s lots of family stuff to do. Plus we love the idea that you can get a nice house for 180 to 200k.
My sister lives in that area and says it has the nice things she liked about California without as many negatives.
April 23rd, 2008 at 7:39 pm
we can’t wait to get out of nj. what part of
bucks ?
April 23rd, 2008 at 7:45 pm
for the baseball fans here….
Don’t drink the water!
by Ed Price
Wednesday April 23, 2008, 1:23 PM
Two signs on the doors leading from the visitors’ clubhouse at U.S. Cellular Field to the first-base dugout read, “NO BOTTLED WATER ON THE BENCH.”
What’s this? Athletes can’t drink water? Even in the humid Chicago summers?
Here’s the explanation I got:
Gatorade is Major League Baseball’s “official sports drink.” So instructions were sent that no player could be seen drinking anything but Gatorade in the dugout. Not even Aquafina, which is the “official water” of MLB. Not even bottles of water with the labels removed.
White Sox clubhouse personnel said if players take bottled water onto the bench, all the bottled water will be removed from the clubhouse as punishment.
So remember, the biggest threat to baseball isn’t steroids or HGH or amphetamines or runaway ticket prices or four-hour games.
It’s water.
April 23rd, 2008 at 7:52 pm
Sean
what the he** is a Hajib?
afe
April 23rd, 2008 at 7:52 pm
Mark, here’s our early - early - take on Bucks. I think Pat and others live there as well, so they might be able to shed more light:
Yardley, Newtown and Washington Crossing are fantastic.
The schools, far as i can tell, are very good in some towns, and now good in others. Which is standard.
One town I did hear to be leery of - Levittown. Apparently, it is ‘hot’ because prices are affordable, BUT the town has a massive termite problem. We just purchased a dining room set off craig’s list from a couple in Levittown, and while there, they showed us all the new neighbors they had. One of the new neighbors found out that the house had a termite problem, and it cost the previous owner $40,000 to take care of it. My sample size here is small though (1 person).
April 23rd, 2008 at 8:22 pm
Kettle
We had a discussion last year on the board on the effect of a week long boycott of Exonn or other oil companies. I think the consensus was that the boycott would either have little or no effect or actually drive up prices.
What do you think a week long boycott of stations would result into today. I would think that the drop in demand would be balanced by the demand at the end of the boycott as the empty tanks are filled. SOno effect.
April 23rd, 2008 at 8:25 pm
John (172) - Thanks for the tip. I’ll practice saying “Welcome to Wal-Mart” instead of daydreaming of becoming a soybean baron.
Good thing I can taler a bit of Dansk:
http://www.nj.com/news/index.ssf/2008/04/corzine_danish_drugmaker_to_ex.html
I expect housing along the Route 1 corridor to go up by 10% as a result.
April 23rd, 2008 at 8:26 pm
Blood, it’s not everywhere, but some houses -in particular those that were rentals at any point - need serious inspection.
People buying in Levittown who know the area, and even those buying for rentals, know how to check to see if traps were ever out around the slab. Some of them had traps put in right away in the sixties, and the old folks kept up with the contracts. Those houses are clean.
If you go into a Fairless Hills ranch (not part of Levittown), it’s basically a prefab, but fairly-well built. You walk in the hallway to the bedrooms, where the original bathroom was. A lot of people have moved the bath to the masterbd and built a back addition with bath 2. Termites leave the floor in the old hallway with just a bit of play. You look up, see the seem and thats were you want to rock back and forth.
In Levittowners (Levittown ranch homes), the termite damage is easy to see.
Don’t buy into the school issues. As long as you buy in the sections of Levittown that are Pennsbury schools, your kids go to the same high school as the Yardley and Lower Makefield kids. If you really want a 4/2 under $200k, then Vermillion is the place. The elementary is O.K. there, and the little Catholic school is great. There’s also an excellent small private school right near that development.
April 23rd, 2008 at 8:27 pm
see the seem and thats were
see the seam and that’s where. Yikes.
April 23rd, 2008 at 8:33 pm
190 pgc
long story short…. the only people you might hurt are the indiviudal station owners, not the corporation.
April 23rd, 2008 at 8:48 pm
John (168)-
“I actually interviewed at Goldman years ago and got turned down to work at Goldman as they told me I was overqualified.”
John, was this the line they tried to use to jolly you out of the building…before they realized they needed to call security?
April 23rd, 2008 at 8:49 pm
Pat - Clearly you’re more of a vet in the area than I. A message board I read (unsure of the credibility) claimed that Lower Makefield was sort of near a walking bridge that connected to Trenton. That left us skittish about that area.
Have you heard this? Is it really an issue?
April 23rd, 2008 at 8:51 pm
ready for more gas price hikes next week?…..Grangemouth lies at the end of the Forties oil pipeline system that gathers oil (and liquids) from oil and gas fields throughout a large area of the Central North Sea. Whilst Grangemouth processes around 200,000 bpd the pipeline system handles around 700,000 bpd and according to this CNN report, a BP spokesman has said they may have to shut down the whole pipeline system. With the global oil market and European gas market already stretched, the impact of this dispute may reverberate around the world.
April 23rd, 2008 at 8:53 pm
Oh and if they close grangemouth….
It therefore looks like Ineos will have to proceed with closing the plant which they say will take 4 weeks to restart. We’ll be back with a fresh thread in a couple of hours.
April 23rd, 2008 at 8:57 pm
Why can’t Corzine get with the program?
Paterson issues his first veto
http://www.silive.com/news/index.ssf/2008/04/paterson_issues_his_first_veto.html
April 23rd, 2008 at 9:07 pm
[189]
I have a col