The “heartwarming side of the housing bust”

From the WSJ:

The Brighter Side of Housing
Amid Downturn, ‘Unaffordable’ Is Within Reach
By JAMES R. HAGERTY
April 24, 2008; Page D1

And now for the heartwarming side of the housing bust: It’s helping some people buy homes that they couldn’t afford a couple of years ago.

Michelle Dudley for years commuted 50 miles each way to her job as a civil servant in Anaheim, Calif., because she and her husband, Don, didn’t feel they could afford a home near her office. This week, though, the Dudleys moved into a three-bedroom house in Anaheim that they recently bought for $390,000, down from the original listing price of $445,000 in November. Similar homes in the area were selling for as much as about $600,000 two years ago, says Erin Eckert, an agent for Redfin, an online real-estate brokerage that represented the Dudleys.

Still, many potential buyers are holding out for better deals. The Wall Street Journal’s quarterly survey of housing-market conditions in 28 major metro areas points to continued downward pressure on prices in much of the country.

Kevin McCleary, a computer-security consultant, remained a renter through the housing boom even though he could afford to buy, because he believed prices were reaching unsustainable levels. In October, though, he and his fiancée finally decided to buy a foreclosed home in Herndon, Va., and negotiated a price of about $443,000. The same home sold in 2005 for $645,000. “I don’t believe we hit it at the perfect time,” Mr. McCleary says. On the other hand, he says, “we were just tired of putting our lives on hold.”

During the boom, home prices rose far faster than incomes. Home prices as measured by the S&P/Case-Shiller national index shot up 74% in the six years through 2006, while median household income rose 15%. (Neither figure is adjusted for inflation.) Now prices in many areas are adjusting back toward more affordable levels, a process that could take several years.

Economists at Goldman Sachs say home prices are likely to level off by late 2009. They also point to improving affordability. Goldman’s chief U.S. economist, Jan Hatzius, says the share of a typical family’s income needed to pay mortgage payments on a median-priced home averaged about 17.5% from 1993 to 2003, before jumping to 26% in 2006. The figure now has fallen to 20% and is likely to keep declining as home prices fall.

Mr. Hatzius estimates that average U.S. home prices have fallen 15% since the second quarter of 2006 and projects they will fall an additional 10% before stabilizing late next year. But he also sees a risk that home prices will fall further, particularly if the foreclosure problem proves worse than already expected.

Goldman estimates that foreclosures will add 1 million to 1.5 million homes to the for-sale market this year, compared with less than half a million a year before 2007.

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325 Responses to The “heartwarming side of the housing bust”

  1. grim says:

    From Bloomberg:

    Credit Suisse Posts SF2.15 Billion Loss on Writedowns

    Credit Suisse Group, Switzerland’s second-biggest bank, reported its first loss in almost five years on 5.3 billion francs ($5.2 billion) of writedowns linked to deteriorating credit markets.

    The net loss totaled 2.15 billion Swiss francs in the first quarter, compared with a 2.73 billion-franc profit a year earlier, the Zurich-based bank said in a statement today. Credit Suisse fell as much as 1.5 percent in Swiss trading after the loss exceeded analysts’ estimates.

  2. grim says:

    From Reuters:

    Foreclosures to affect 6.5 mln loans by 2012-report

    Falling U.S. home prices and a lack of available credit may result in foreclosures on 6.5 million loans by the end of 2012, according to a Credit Suisse research report on Tuesday.

    The foreclosures could put 12.7 percent of all residential borrowers out of their homes, Credit Suisse analysts, led by Rod Dubitsky, said in the report. That compares with a foreclosure rate of 2.04 percent in the last quarter of 2007, they said, citing Mortgage Bankers Association data.

    The new forecast includes 2.7 million subprime loans whose risky characteristics sparked the worst housing market since the Great Depression. Subprime foreclosures, on top of the 676,000 already in or through the process, will hit 1.39 million in the next two years alone, an upward revision from the 730,000 predicted by Credit Suisse in October.

    Falling home prices have made an increasing number of U.S. homeowners more vulnerable to default, they said. Nearly a third of subprime borrowers owed more than their home was worth at the end of last year, and that figure will double to 63 percent in 2009, they said.

    “These factors, coupled with snowballing negative psychology, are contributing to a rapid rise in foreclosures,” the analysts said.

    Credit Suisse expects home prices will fall by 10 percent in 2008 and 5 percent in 2009, before rebounding.

  3. grim says:

    From Dow Jones:

    Housing Slump Continues To Ravage Home-builder Earnings

    Two of the nation’s largest home builders after Wednesday’s market close reported quarterly losses as housing market weakness continues to weigh on the beleaguered industry and hopes for a recovery this spring.

    Sector bellwethers Ryland Group Inc. (RYL) and Pulte Homes Inc. (PHM) were out with first-quarter results after the closing bell.

    Ryland, based in Calabasas, Calif., reported a first-quarter loss of $29.3 million, or 69 cents a share, compared with a loss of $32.2 million, or 58 cents, a year ago. Revenue for the three months ended March 31 fell to $416.2 million from $711.1 million.

    The company said new orders in the first quarter fell 27.8% to 2,159 units from 2,989 units a year ago.

    Analysts note that Ryland has cut its prices more aggressively than peers in a bid to clear speculative inventory.

    Meanwhile, Pulte reported a net loss of $696.1 million, or $2.75 a share, compared with a net loss of $85.7 million, or 34 cents a share, in the same period a year earlier.

    Results in the latest period were hit by $663.6 million of pre-tax charges from inventory impairments and other land-related charges. Revenues dropped 23% to $1.4 billion in the first quarter, versus a year ago.

    “The difficult housing environment continued to erode during the first quarter of 2008,” Pulte Chief Executive Richard Dugas said in a statement. “Buyer demand for new homes continues to be soft, home prices remain under pressure, and overall buyer confidence is weak.”

    The poor results added to the growing pile of evidence that the key spring sales period is off to a lackluster start again this year. A report earlier this week said existing home sales fell 2% in March and home prices are down almost 8% in the last year. Simply, there are still too many homes for sale on the market, observers say.

  4. grim says:

    From the WSJ:

    Foreclosure-Relief Plan Gains
    By MICHAEL R. CRITTENDEN
    April 24, 2008; Page A4

    WASHINGTON — A House panel Wednesday approved $15 billion in loans and grants for local governments to purchase the growing number of foreclosed homes throughout the country.

    The House Financial Services Committee voted 38-26 in favor of the bill, part of a broader package of housing legislation being pushed this week by House Democrats to address the housing crisis. Earlier Wednesday the panel voted to provide legal protection in certain circumstances for mortgage servicers that work with borrowers facing foreclosure.

    Passage came despite the opposition of some panel Republicans, who argued that using federal funds to buy foreclosed homes could encourage foreclosure.

    “I don’t think we ought to be incentivizing foreclosure,” Rep. Spencer Bachus, (R., Ala.), said.

    Committee Chairman Barney Frank, (D., Mass.), said that provisions of the bill, including a requirement that purchased homes be at least 60 days into the foreclosure process, would prevent abuse. More importantly, he said, lawmakers need to do more to help local governments dealing with eroding tax bases and maintaining foreclosed homes.

    “Cities are being badly hurt and this is the only vehicle proposed that goes to the aid of the cities and counties,” Mr. Frank said.

    The $15 billion would be split equally between loans and grants, which would be distributed to states based on their percentage of nationwide foreclosures, median home price and other factors. Government-run entities and not-for-profit organizations would be eligible for the money, which could be used for the purchase, rehabilitation, and resale or rental of the housing.

  5. grim says:

    From Bloomberg:

    New-Home Sales in U.S. Probably Dropped

    New-home sales in the U.S. probably fell in March to the lowest level in 13 years, while overseas demand lifted orders for durable goods, economists said before government reports today.

    Purchases of new homes dropped 1.7 percent from the prior month to an annual pace of 580,000, the fewest since February 1995, according to the median forecast in a Bloomberg News survey. Orders for products meant to last several years probably rose in March for the first time in three months.

    A jump in subprime mortgage defaults and record foreclosures have worsened the real-estate slump and led banks to limit lending. Growing exports are mitigating the damage on American factories from the collapse in residential construction and credit crisis that may cause the economy to contract.

    “It’s highly likely the U.S. economy is in a recession, and housing is certainly at the center,” said Avery Shenfeld, a senior economist at CIBC World Markets Inc. in Toronto. “This year is going to be very soft.”

    The Commerce Department will issue new-home purchase figures in Washington at 10 a.m. Estimates in the Bloomberg survey of 75 economists ranged from 560,000 to 602,000.

  6. bairen says:

    30% off 2006 prices in California? I thought houses only go up?

    / sarcasm

    I wonder how long before we see that in NJ? I’m already seeing list prices down 20%.

  7. grim says:

    Reading this as I make my wife a grande one pump triple iced no whip lowfat white mocha.

    Starbucks Lowers 2008 Forecast as Sales Slide

    Starbucks on Wednesday warned of weaker-than-expected earnings for the second quarter and full year as it struggles to reignite U.S. growth in the “weakest economic environment” in its history, sending its shares down 11 percent.

    “The wheels have really come off of this train,” RBC Capital Markets analyst Larry Miller told Reuters, noting his surprise at the warning. “It’s amazing how fast business has derailed. If sales are down mid-single digits, that is a rapid erosion.”

    Chief Executive Howard Schultz said in a statement that “the current economic environment is the weakest in our company’s history, marked by lower home values, and rising costs for energy, food and other products that are directly impacting our customers.”

  8. grim says:

    I hear the black market for stolen Starbucks not-for-sale syrups/flavorings is hot hot hot.

  9. Shore Guy says:

    Syrup and coffee, two words that were never meant to be paired.

  10. Clotpoll says:

    grim (7)-

    I can remember telling agents of mine who struggled- when times were good- that the first thing they should do is cut out the daily Starbucks.

    I’m kicking myself for not having shorted the living daylights out of this company. Shoulda seen this coming.

  11. Clotpoll says:

    Shore (9)-

    Kinda like gin and juice.

  12. Clotpoll says:

    BC, is there a CME or NMX market in almond syrup?

  13. grim says:

    From Bloomberg:

    Libor to Rise as Banks Stay Wary, Derivatives Signal

    Interest-rate derivatives are signaling that the rate banks charge for loans in dollars in London may rise further as financial institutions remain reluctant to lend.

    “The correction in Libor has not completely happened,” said Bulent Baygun, head of interest-rate strategy in New York at BNP Paribas Securities Corp., a unit of France’s largest bank. “Given the dynamics that have persisted in the past few weeks, it looks like there could be a little bit more room for an increase.”

  14. grim says:

    Syrup and coffee, two words that were never meant to be paired.

    Sambuca and espresso?

  15. Cindy says:

    (205) Thurs. 9:21 P.M. lostinny

    “And btw, what happened to Cindy? I haven’t seen her posts lately?”

    I’m here, lostinny. but since….

    “There’s quite a bit of talk about things people know nothing about, yet have no problem voicing their opinions.”

    I’m a reader. I rarely have anything coherent to add to the conversation. I check the posts in the early AM (I’m up at 4:00 and off to work at 7:00 – brain dead in the evenings…)I’m teaching school and unable to check the day’s events so I’m content with being a reader and learning what I can.

  16. mark says:

    looks like Hov has the stopped building in
    the Clifton/W.paterson complex,.

    oh,but you can still spend 500k in the place

  17. Seneca says:

    Barbara Corcoran on Today Show Real Estate 101 segment just said that you need to hold on to your house purchase for at least two years just to recoup the closing costs.

    …. Housing apocalypse is near.

  18. grim says:

    So much for replacing those low-paying finance jobs with high-paying food service jobs. What happens if we lose the food service too?

    From the WSJ:

    Restaurants Feel Sting
    Of Surging Costs, Debt
    In Slump, Chains
    Shut Sites, Cut Jobs;
    No Free Sour Cream
    By JEFFREY MCCRACKEN and JANET ADAMY
    April 24, 2008; Page A1

    When you serve 1.1 million eggs a week, even a tiny price increase can pinch. So when egg prices tripled for casual-dining restaurant chains Bakers Square and the Village Inn over the past two years, the result was especially painful. Pricier eggs and other foods added $9 million in annual costs. This month, the chains’ owner, Denver-based Vicorp Restaurants Inc., filed for bankruptcy-court protection.

    Vicorp won’t be the last. The $558 billion restaurant industry is hitting rough times, squeezed by many of the same woes affecting other sectors of the economy: tightfisted consumers, scarce credit and surging commodity prices. Adding to the pressure is a big jump in the minimum wage starting this summer, which will boost wages by 12% in some states.

    That’s sent the industry into its worst slump in decades. Many chains have scaled back expansion plans or cut costs by skimping on things like extra sauce and free sour cream. Some are shuttering sites and laying off workers. Private-equity firms, which plunged into the business earlier this decade using gobs of borrowed money, are now especially vulnerable as those debts come due.

    The slowdown has broad implications for the economy. The industry employs 13.1 million people, making it the nation’s third-largest employer, behind the U.S. government and the health-care industry, according to the National Restaurant Association, a trade group. Many of those jobs are held by the poor and immigrants who have few other options for work.

    Restaurant analysts say they don’t expect a swift rebound this time. Part of the reason is the leveling off of women entering the work force and an increase in the quality of prepared food offerings at grocery stores, both of which have led consumers to eat more at home. And with many consumers looking to cut back, casual dining is one of the first things to go.

    Restaurants overexpanded in recent years, too. There were 524,286 eating and drinking places in the U.S. in 2006 — a 45% increase from 1990, according to the National Restaurant Association. The U.S. population rose 20% during that period, according to census figures.

    In part because of the glut, overall same-store sales at about 70 restaurant chains were flat or down in the fourth quarter, says Wachovia Capital Markets. Dips are rare in a business that has seen growth in all but two of the past 26 years, according to Wachovia.

  19. HEHEHE says:

    Kettle

    Brazil Oil Finds May End Reliance on Middle East, Zeihan Says

    http://www.bloomberg.com/apps/news?pid=20601109&sid=aBUoYKhu7PWk&refer=home

  20. BC Bob says:

    “Kevin McCleary, a computer-security consultant, remained a renter through the housing boom even though he could afford to buy, because he believed prices were reaching unsustainable levels.”

    Another wannabe.

  21. lostinny says:

    Cindy
    The same reason why I mostly just lurk. Unless of course Clot and I engage in our colorful conversations.
    Good to see you’re still around though. I think its good to hear whats happening in other areas of the country. While I live right next door to NJ, I don’t see listing prices coming down and I don’t see units that have been on the market for months lowering their prices either. If people think NYC is immune to this housing crash, Staten Islander’s must think Tony Soprano himself will protect them all.

  22. Shore Guy says:

    # 15

    We have devalued our currency allowing others to buy our assets (some call it investment in America, but an investment is when one builds a plant or such and adds to our productive capacity) thus removing control over those assets from American. At the same time that devaluation has sapped our economic strength overseas.

    Instead of being the credit extender, we find ourselves red-white-and-blue top hat in hand seeking loans to keep the government afloat and Wall Street banks from sinking.

    Families confuse having useless “stuff” with having wealth, and have descended deeper into debt with each passing month.

    When the housing bubble “created wealth” for families they used the opportunity to leverage themselves even deeper into debt for accumulating more usless (and if useful, of limited lifespan, stuff).

    With a huge national debt, huge state debts, growing national defecit, growing state and local defecits do we cut spending on the “nice to haves” in order to maintain the “must haves?” Of course not, and we delude ourselves into believing that a decrease in the rate of increasing spending is a “spending cut.”

    We have lost our grip on reality and instead of trying to get it back we amuse ourselves with insipid television and overpriced concerts and sporting events (and associated team jerseys, etc.) when the time could be better spent in pursuit of financial stability and the family money could be better spent saving for a rainy day or digging the family out of debt.

    We reflexively speak of our “greatness” forgetting that we have for many years ceased to behave in the manner that made us great. It is as if by repeating the mantra it will stay true: greatest economy, best health care, greatest schools and universities, most patents, longest life span, yadda yadda. More and more we resemble the once-great athlete who, failing to continue working out and pushing himself to stay on top, gets fat and lazy and bores everyone with stories about his past amazing performances — all the while missing the fact that others have caught and even surpassed him.

    We still have an opportunity to recover but the time to act is not unlimited. I don’t know whether RE will drop to where many of us here think it will, if only because folks from overseas will do what American’s used to do and snap up land (overseas to them, here to us) as vacation places, investment properties (rentals can provide nice passive income) so that when the dollar does recover they can make a killing at that end as well.

    If we do not insist on an honest discussion, and strong action, from our elected officials and allow ourselves to be distracted by the bread and circuses, we will have earned the inevitable decline to second-rate status. In our parent’s lifetime folks used to say “The sun never sets on the British Empire.” When the sunset came, it was hard and fast.

  23. BC Bob says:

    I think the Chinese stock players, the Japanese housewives, the Beardstown Ladies and the stuck in the mud flippers/investors of the RE bubble, should arrange a GTG and compare notes. Maybe in an establishment on the Gold Coast. One room for the NJ Vuture Fund GTG and another room for the experts.

    “It was the biggest party in the short history of the Chinese stock market – a rise of 500 per cent in the country’s top indices in Shanghai and Shenzhen, millions of new investors joining every day, champagne corks popping regularly as the latest once-creaking state enterprise unveiled its new sleek self for public listing.”

    “But China’s stock market bubble has burst, leaving 150 million share investors waking up to their worst hangover ever. There are reports of people picking stocks at random, using lucky numbers or consulting fortune-tellers to buy shares.”

    “Whatever shares I bought, they gave me a handsome return then. With the yields on stocks, I earned enough in just a couple of months to decorate my new home and filled it with an air-conditioner, LCD television and other things I needed,” she said. Now she faces a major loss.”

    http://www.independent.co.uk/news/business/analysis-and-features/chinas-bubble-bursts-814073.html

  24. BC Bob says:

    “BC, is there a CME or NMX market in almond syrup?”

    Clot,

    I hear that WS is structuring a new product with food ingredient tranches. After all, there is a vast world now rioting. WS wants to tap into this.

  25. BC Bob says:

    JB [13],

    Libor. HMMM? Sounds like the credit cruch is alive and well. Getting worse day by day.

  26. Cindy says:

    (21) lostinny

    Oh,residential prices are falling here for sure. I’d say the 30% off of 2005 highs is accurate.
    The problem is we were so overbuilt here in the Valley that the limited number of qualified buyers are jumping aboard the great deals the builders are offering. Talk here is still 08′ or 09′ for the best deals on foreclosures. There are some autions for foreclosures but so many more are expected to hit the market in the coming months.

    Our biggest issue here in California is the economy. We have huge gas taxes (so many refining rules.) ,,I pay $3.89 a gallon for reg. unleaded….and food…and we grow it here! The one bright spot is Agricultural land. From an article this weekend:
    Almolds – an acre $9,000 – 15,000 – stable
    Pistacios $8,000 – 15,000 – stable
    Tree fruit $9,000 – 14,000 – moderate

    Small acreage parcels (less that 40 acres -$10,000 to $20,000.)”Farmland is generating such good returns that farmers are holding on to it – and expanding when they can.”

    “High demand for crops grown in the Valley and a declining dollar, which is generating more exports, are helping prop up prices, even though deisel, fertilizer and other farm costs are climbing.”

    City governments, school districts etc. have all had their budgets cut.

  27. Joeycasz says:

    Anyone know more about MLS 2496098?

    I believe it might have sold. I also think its initial OLP was $340,000 but quickly reduced to $319,000.

    Thanks in advance!

    http://tinyurl.com/4o3ahm

  28. bairen says:

    Grim, #28 in moderation.

  29. grim says:

    Joey,

    287 Berkley Ave

    Purchased: 3/10/2005
    Purchase Price: $310,000

    MLS# 2377961
    OLP: $369,000
    LP: $359,000
    DOM: 179
    Withdrawn

    MLS# 2442000
    OLP: $349,000
    LP: $338,000
    DOM: 84
    Withdrawn

    MLS# 2496098
    OLP: $339,900
    LP: $319,000
    DOM: 48
    Active

  30. Cindy says:

    Fresno Bee yesterday..
    “In Fresno County, 31.7% of all resales in March were bank-owned.” In Stockton and San Joaquin County, 71% of all existing home sales were houses repossessed by banks. The percentages in neighboring Stanislaus and Sacramento counties were 62% and 54% respectively.”

    “The vast number of foreclosures is affecting competing home values. a neighborhood where more than half of the houses are foreclosures will experience a 5% to 10% decline in property values beyond what is typical in other areas.”

    “Banks are finally doing the right thing,” said Don Scordino, president of the Fresno Association of Realtors. “They are bringing down the price to where it needs to be. A year ago, the most unrealistic sellers in the market were the banks.”

  31. BC Bob says:

    bairen [28],

    That split for 439K. Not too bad?

  32. Joeycasz says:

    Thanks Grim! My wife was walking the dog last night and saw people moving some furniture and boxes in and out of the house. Maybe the current owners have already purchased a new home and are still trying to sell this one…hmmm

  33. bairen says:

    #31 Cindy

    Love this quote “Banks are finally doing the right thing,”.

    About 6 years late Donnie boy.

  34. Joeycasz says:

    #28

    Houses like that just make the correction take that much longer. It will never sell for that asking price, it’s ridiculous.

  35. John says:

    U.S. FIRST-TIME JOBLESS CLAIMS DROP SHARPLY IN LATEST WEEK

  36. RentininNJ says:

    BC, is there a CME or NMX market in almond syrup?

    NYMEX cleared M 08 almond syrup futures $8.50 @ $8.55 1,000 contracts up

  37. bairen says:

    #32 BC Bob,

    That’s what we thought. I really thought there was nothing in Westfield for less then 500k last spring except for some real dumps in the 480 to 499 range. Now there are a few nice updated houses below 450 and a real nice 3/1 colonial for 375k.

    I’m thinking I either need to work in NYC for us to make it here, (and move to Westfield/Cranford) or we need to join Mitchell and bail out of NJ. 2 kids under 5 is a killer with daycare.

  38. Young Buck says:

    From CNN:

    Backlash grows against the housing bailout

    Many Americans want no part of a government-funded bailout for troubled mortgage borrowers.

    http://money.cnn.com/2008/04/21/real_estate/bailout_backlash/index.htm?postversion=2008042315

  39. grim says:

    From the AP:

    Durable goods orders fall for third straight month

    Durable goods orders fall for third straight month, the longest stretch since 2001 recession

    Orders to factories for big-ticket manufactured goods fell for a third straight month in March, the longest string of declines since the 2001 recession.
    The Commerce Department said Thursday that demand for durable goods dropped by 0.3 percent last month, a worse-than-expected performance that underscored the problems manufacturers are facing from a severe economic slowdown. The last time orders fell for three consecutive months was from February to April of 2001, when the country was sliding into the last recession.

  40. Cindy says:

    (34) barien

    It appears that we have a bigger glut of foreclosures here than many places (except maybe Nevada and Florida.) It took a huge glut for banks to FINALLY drop prices.

  41. Jamey says:

    15:

    “Translation: I speak Paul Harvey.”

  42. Mr. Oliver says:

    11-

    Mr. Snoop Dogg would disagree with you.

    “Laid back, with my mind on my money and my money on my mind.”

  43. Al says:

    I wonder how this works:

    We put an offer in last week on REO house. This week we got an answer – bank took First offer they recieve (by somebody), and they are going with that offer.
    They said, they are not considering any other offers at the time??
    The house is not under contract yet, but they are not taking any more offers… is it normal?”?

    Is it just it takes them over 3 weeks to even process one offer and they do not want to process more than 1 at a time?

    P.S. I do not really want that house, just wondering? The most attractive part of it was the price on it.

  44. lisoosh says:

    Shore #22-

    Agree.

  45. pretorius says:

    “need to work in NYC for us to make it here”

    Go for it. Earning New York $$$ and paying New Jersey real estate costs is a great arbitrage.

    I worked in New Jersey until I realized I could double my comp straight away plus have more upside in a similar job in New York. I wasn’t the only one – many of my New Jersey colleagues made the same move.

    New Jersey employers thing they’re doing you a favor by giving you a 4% raise each year. Everybody gets the same raise, like the government. Performance doesn’t matter. That’s why you see New Jersey pharma companies filled with 50 year old guys. All the young talent became frustrated and left.

    Contrast that with the how New York firms paid workers during the past several years.

  46. Mr. Oliver says:

    #46 –
    MY wife and I both work in NYC, live in Queens (Astoria – REPRESENT), and are looking at possibly purchasing in either Cranford or Westfield near the end of ’08.

    Can you explain the numbers behind your post, in a little more detail. It would be very helpful.

    Thanks.

  47. grim says:

    Al,

    Don’t bother trying to analyze it, there are simply too many variables that you aren’t privvy to (like the terms of the other offer).

  48. kettle1 says:

    19 HEHE

    both fields are certainly significant finds, however lets put things in perspective

    These numbers put in perspective what Tupi represents globally, at its peak the field will produce less than half a percent of the world oil production. Even if the higher estimate of 8 Gb is confirmed, the field’s reserves represent 14 weeks of world oil consumption.

    we will have to wait for real #’s on the Carioca find, but assujing that the press release in representative of the actual field, then:

    Carioca is 4 times the size of Tupi an if we do a very basic extrapolation then Carioca represents 2% of world oil production at its peak production rate and the total field would represent 56 weeks of global supply.

    Once again, significant find, but the proof is in the pudding. Look at Thunder horse to see how reality often does not match with the hype

  49. Shore Guy says:

    # 50 “the proof is in the pudding”

    Ket,

    It is actually “putting,” not “pudding.”

  50. Hehehe says:

    Kettle,

    I agree. They’ve yet to get a drop out of any of them and their depth etc isn’t going to make anything easy. Time frames the guy suggests seems optimistic. I just thought it was interesting from a military standpoint. Today’s reality is our military is basically being used as the Brinks service for the oil flow throughout the world. We could see a large amount of budget savings if it were to happen.

  51. RentininNJ says:

    New homes sales below expectations

  52. ricky_nu says:

    new homes sales down 8.5%,…..Bwahahahaha

    yes – prices are not down in NJ, simply because nothign is trading. Price discovery needs stuff to change hands…..

  53. Shore Guy says:

    http://www.cnbc.com/id/15840232?video=720203325&play=1

    My heart bleeds. Last week I saw a $6.5 million beachfront villa south of Palm Beach that was REO. At least they had a 100′ blue-water-capable yacht to escape to, at least until that gets taken.

  54. grim says:

    From MarketWatch:

    U.S. March new-home sales plunge 8.5% to 526,000 annual pace

    U.S. March new-home sales weakest in 17-years

    U.S. March new-home sales much weaker than 577,000 expected

    U.S. new-home sales down 36.6% in past year

    U.S. March new-home supply on market 11 months, 27-year high

  55. spam spam bacon spam says:

    [22] Ramen.

  56. kettle1 says:

    HEHE

    good points, also consider that brazil is a rock solid government/country compared to the middle east. Although the other issue is that as global oil supply peaks and internal oil demand increases countries with oil are going to be exporting less and less of it. An advantage with the middle east is that they need food, as they cannot grow enough for their own population. Brazil may be sitting on the jackpot if they are smart. They are capable of growing enough food for their own population and they have large potential reservoirs of oil. if they are smart, they will sell some, but like the saudi recently announced, sit on a large majority of it as a future investment.

  57. kettle1 says:

    51,

    dont know if my sarcasm meter is working today, but it actually is “pudding”. “the proof is in the pudding” is a derivative of The proverb, “The proof of the pudding’s in the eating” which itself dates back to about the 1600’s.

  58. grim says:

    From Bloomberg:

    New-Home Sales in the U.S. Plunged More Than Forecast in March

    Purchases of new homes in the U.S. plunged more than forecast in March to the lowest level in almost 17 years as stricter loan rules and falling prices caused buyers to hold off.

    Sales dropped 8.5 percent to an annual pace of 526,000, the fewest since October 1991, from a 575,000 rate the prior month, the Commerce Department said today in Washington. The median sales price slumped 13.3 percent from the same time last year, the most in almost four decades.

    Economists forecast new home sales would drop to a 580,000 annual pace from an originally reported 590,000 rate the prior month, according to the median estimate in a Bloomberg survey of 75 economists. Forecasts ranged from 560,000 to 602,000.

    Sales were down 37 percent from March 2007.

    Purchases dropped in all four regions, led by a 19 percent decline in the Northeast.

  59. RentininNJ says:

    Go for it. Earning New York $$$ and paying New Jersey real estate costs is a great arbitrage.

    I don’t believe there is an arbitrage opportunity here. NJ real estate is expensive compared with other markets. A big factor is our proximity to Manhattan.

    Our Proximity to Manhattan and the Manhattan job market has been fully factored into the NJ housing market, as evidenced by higher prices in the areas with the easiest commutes.

    An arbitrage opportunity would mean that NJ RE is undervalued and would be expected to rise as people come to understand what a great deal living in NJ and commuting to NYC is, bid up NJ prices and thus close the arbitrage opportunity (as happened to all arbitrage opportunities over time). Since prices are falling, this is unlikely.

  60. kettle1 says:

    57

    may you be touched by his noodly appendage and live forever in the paradise of stripper factories and beer volcanoes!

  61. bairen says:

    #22 Are you trying to tell me my 6,832 DVDs are worthless? What about by 3,412 CDs? My Timberlake furniture? Our idea of low brow is shopping at Brooks Brothers or Jones NY on sale.

    / sarcasm

    What’s sad is I do know people who have thousands of DVDs, designer furiture and clothes, eat out almost every meal, yet do not contribute to their IRAs or 401ks because they don’t have the money.
    WTF?

  62. BC Bob says:

    “U.S. March new-home sales weakest in 17-years”

    [56],

    It’s starting to unravel. When the 1st major HB goes under, the boots come out of the closet. When the 2nd one follows, the laces get tied.

  63. BC Bob says:

    “Go for it. Earning New York $$$ and paying New Jersey real estate costs is a great arbitrage.”

    Pret, please explain how this is an arb play?

  64. kettle1 says:

    SHore 15,

    “hip hip hurray”,

    That leads us to the question of whether the american public and politicians are willing to make the comfort and luxury sacrifices that are needed. We are certainly capable of it. but like the smoker with lung cancer who is capable of quiting, we most likely will not.

  65. gary says:

    Dear Realtors,

    I would like to get your take on the new home sales numbers. I’m not talking about the regular posters here, I mean the ones lurking on this site from Weichert, Realogy, etc. I await your professional analysis with great anticipation.

  66. grim says:

    gary,

    The talking points memo hasn’t been distributed yet. But rest assured, in this environment of low interest rates and abundant choices, it most certainly is a great time to buy.

  67. bairen says:

    #eCONomists are wrong 99% of the time, the other 1% they got lucky.

    With increasing supplies and lower demand I believe we have reached, or are about to reach the tipping point. I’m starting to see some houses priced more realistically.

    I’m not trying to buy at the bottom, I just want to buy a decent house in a good town for 2.5 to 2.8 x our gross income. If that happens, we’ll stay in NJ, if it doesn’t happen by next Spring I’m pretty sure we’re going to bail out.

  68. pretorius says:

    Renting,

    Good observation about my loose use of the term arbitrage.

    My point is one can live in a place like Hoboken, have a similar commute to work as somebody who lives in Manhattan, and spend 1/2 as much on housing.

    Housing may feel expensive in this state, but it isn’t for people earning big bucks in the New York financial industry, where wages are the highest in the country.

    Given the access to high paying New York jobs, New Jersey is a great bargain compared to places like Boston and San Francisco which have higher housing costs but fewer high-paying jobs.

  69. Mitchell says:

    From the article and I said this maybe a few weeks back we should see more buyers coming out thinking the drop is a good time to buy. I don’t believe there is a massive group on the sideline waiting to buy but there are those from 2005 who will be. I certainly think inventory will grow as we go into spring/summer. Feds drop a half point and I think it will cause a little buying to occur and a lot of refinancing.

    We all agree its not rock bottom with a looming recession, excessive inventory of homes for sale, few more sub prime resets on the way, and uncertainty that the gov bailout will do nothing more than just delay the inevitable. But some people will see this as a time to buy even if they lose a few percent over the next year or two.

    If long term is in the equation then they start living in a house this year instead of next year and think about 10 years down the road. Those who think they can get rich quick will be in for a dose of reality.

    The bad is should they run into trouble in the next maybe 1-4 years they may not be able to recoup what they put in.

    I say the feds drop the interest rate a good measure for 3-6 months and let those who are going to buy buy and those who need to refi and can refi. After that your on your own.

    I’m not for the government buyout because it will just get flooded with scammers like hurricane Katrina. If I believed the Govt could determine who really would benefit from it then I would be for it but they are too quick to cut a check and it will go to scammers. Scams > Those in Need

  70. mr potter says:

    The CNBC realty gal stated that the cancellation rates are not in these numbers. Did I hear that correctly ? Could this be even worse ?!

  71. Al says:

    Interesting – I know a lof of people who actually lives in one of NYC borough’s and commute to work to NJ…

    Once you consider something other than manhatten, premium NJ towns all of the sudden lose its appeal.

    Actuall explanation – one of my colleagues living in Brooklyn, and all he can get for his house right now is about 450K… He said he can not afford comparable house in NJ in decent train town… Taxes here are higher as well.

  72. grim says:

    Cancellations are never included in these numbers, this is not new.

    Here is the Census Bureau position:

    http://www.census.gov/const/www/salescancellations.html

  73. gary says:

    grim,

    Ahhh… I see. Well, I’m sure all that pant up demand is just ready to burst. But, just to be sure, let’s see what the professionals tell us.

  74. BC Bob says:

    Gary [67],

    The market shows signs of stabilizing, we are dancing along the bottom. With all the choices available and lower prices we feel this is the best time, in the last decade, to buy. The fed is continuing to lower rates. You want to take advantage of this and buy before rates become a burden. Right? Also, there is pant up demand and past history indicates that RE doubles every 10 years. That pos cape, now 500k, will be 1M, in 2018. Furthermore, there are indications that Trenton is embarking on constructive, long term structural changes. Therefore we feel that property taxes will not be restrictive, going forward.

  75. Al says:

    Given the access to high paying New York jobs, New Jersey is a great bargain compared to places like Boston and San Francisco which have higher housing costs but fewer high-paying jobs

    housing in Boaston and SF: check your data – actuqally housing in boston surburbs right now is quite a bit cheaper that NJ surburbia. IN SF withing 40 minted drive from GOOGLE campus – prices are still raising. Butonce you get away from that you can get very nice 2000+ sqft houses for 350K or below.

    Where do you get this in NJ – which City?? They are built in the last 20 years and far superior to 350K cape cods in NJ.

    Also IN SF your heating bill – non-existant, and they are actually have prop 13 to at leats control taxes.

  76. gary says:

    pretorius,

    May I ask, what area of the country are you originally from? No agenda, I’m just curious.

  77. pretorius says:

    “Once you consider something other than manhatten, premium NJ towns all of the sudden lose its appeal.”

    Al, I agree. I live in this state because it provides access to good jobs in New York.

  78. pretorius says:

    Al, yes, probably LA is better example than Boston.

  79. pretorius says:

    Gary, I lived in a bunch of places growing up. Most of it was spent in New England.

  80. gary says:

    BC Bob [76],

    Bingo. You do realize that somebody in the industry is doing a cut and paste on your thread to be placed into a memo for distribution, right? :)

  81. gary says:

    pretorius,

    Thanks.

  82. Mitchell says:

    #177 bairen from yesterday.

    Great time to go. I know a few people who did move there and love it. One of them did have bad allergy problems living in TX and they wound up moving over to Florida. In the end it worked out because he got double promoted and makes a lot more coin now despite losing a lot on moving.

    I think Texas is really nice but going anywhere outside of where your at is a looooong drive. I lived in Killen, Tx for a while but a lot has changed since then.

    Texas is stealing a lot of Atlanta people. Know a few people from Atlanta that went to the Houston area. Amazing how 4 years ago many of my friends are now scattered up the US now. None moved out west.

  83. Shore Guy says:

    # 63 THe DVSs and CDs are not worthless. The make great coasters (especially if a CD of the Coasters), hot plates, and rearview mirror art.

    Ket,

    Re. putting and pudding, it seems there are two sayings. I stand humbled and corrected. The one in fashion in my experience has been “The proof is in the putting,” or the proof is in doing, not saying.

    As for your question posed in 66, my fear is that we will not and that we will become the next France — a former world-striding power that failed to act before slipping and now goes around with a chip on its shoulder trying to remind people that it once mattered and insisting that it should have influence beyond what it deserves just because of its past status. Our house needs a new roof and the levy is unable to hold back the flood waters and we have politicians and citizens fussing about what fabric to put onthe couch and whether the paint in the hallway is the right color.

  84. CAIBC says:

    got this from a buddy! thought it was pretty funny that needed sharing!!!!

    ‘We in Denmark cannot figure out why you are even bothering to hold an election. On one side, you have a bitch who is a lawyer married to a lawyer, or a lawyer who is married to a bitch who is a lawyer.

    On the other side, you have a true war hero married to a woman with a very large chest who owns a beer distributorship.

    Is there really a contest here?’

    gives us a prespective of what they are thinking!!!

    CAIBC

    now back to RE….

  85. Al says:

    To post #85 LOL

  86. bairen says:

    #85 too funny.

    LOL.

  87. Shore Guy says:

    Yikes! levee, that is.

  88. Shore Guy says:

    The October Surprise: Cindy sends a free six-pack to every voter. And a poster of herself to every male voter and every female Melissa Ethridge fan

  89. lostinny says:

    85
    Nice!

  90. John says:

    http://www.dhcr.state.ny.us/ohm/apps/hsgdevls/hsgdevls.asp

    If you are middle class just live in NYC in a mitchell lama coop. Who needs NJ?

  91. prtraders2000 says:

    How do you appease a spouse with an overactive nesting impulse that has stopped speaking to you since the home they fancied went under contract before you had a chance to see it?

  92. Sybarite says:

    prtraders2000 Says:
    April 24th, 2008 at 11:04 am
    How do you appease a spouse…..that has stopped speaking to you….?

    You say this like it’s a bad thing…

  93. bairen says:

    #92 prtraders must be a newlywed.

  94. grim says:

    From the AP:

    New home sales plunge to lowest level in 16 1/2 years

    Sales of new homes plunged in March to the lowest level in 16 1/2 years as housing slumped further at the start of the spring sales season.

    The median price of a new home in March, compared with a year ago, fell by the largest amount in nearly four decades.

    The Commerce Department reported Thursday that sales of new homes dropped by 8.5 percent last month to a seasonally adjusted annual rate of 526,000 units, the slowest sales pace since October 1991.

    The median price of a home sold in March dropped by 13.3 percent compared with March 2007, the biggest year-over-year price decline since a 14.6 percent plunge in July 1970.

    The dismal news on new home sales followed earlier reports showing sales of existing homes fell by 2 percent in March. Housing, which boomed for five years, has been in a prolonged slump for the past two years with sales and home prices falling at especially sharp rates in formerly boom areas of the country.

    For March, sales were down in all regions of the country, dropping the most in the Northeast, a decline of 19.4 percent. Sales fell by 12.9 percent in the West, 12.5 percent in the Midwest and 4.6 percent in the South.

  95. njrebear says:

    I’m waiting for John’s answer.

  96. RayC says:

    92 prtraders2000

    Remind her that you and she formed a family and that you are committed to taking care of that family. The “permanence” of owning a house pales in comparison to your commitment to her and your child on the way. Whenever you buy a house it will be a nice milestone in your life together, but just a part of it.

  97. Hehehe says:

    “grim Says:
    April 24th, 2008 at 10:19 am
    gary,

    The talking points memo hasn’t been distributed yet. But rest assured, in this environment of low interest rates and abundant choices, it most certainly is a great time to buy.”

    You forgot to add the pant up demand

  98. RentininNJ says:

    How do you appease a spouse with an overactive nesting impulse that has stopped speaking to you since the home they fancied went under contract before you had a chance to see it?

    If you find the answer, please share it.

    My wife was pretty good for a while, but her patience is starting to wear thin. When I explain how things are still way overpriced, I just get the “I don’t care, I just want a house”. I even offered to rent a SFH, but she doesn’t want to move twice.

    The one thing I do have going for me is that she is picky. When we look at open houses in our price range, she tends to get disgusted and leaves me alone for a few weeks.

    The problem with this strategy is that some homes that aren’t complete dumps are starting to fall within the upper end of our range. So now she is getting encouraged and growing anxious.

    Trying to convince her to hold out for a better deal on a place that is acceptable is a much tougher sell than holding out because everything in our range is cr_p.

  99. Al says:

    Trying to convince her to hold out for a better deal on a place that is acceptable is a much tougher sell than holding out because everything in our range is cr_p.

    I had to do my own market analysis and show to my wife that last year houses sold in october/september netted about anywhere from 15K-30K less than comparable ones in the spring time.

    I asked her: how long it takes us to save 15K?? 30K?? I suggested wating till fall, and after that deciding if we are staying in NJ – if we are staying – we will buy a house, if we are leaving – than we just rent untill next summer

    (I will be fully vested in all company’s benefits in about a year – which means leaving now i will be abandoning about 20K in various retirement funds…)

    Still not an easy proposition, espetially with 11 month old baby… My observation though her nesting urges are very strong during spring ans slowly die-off during summer/fall. Winder – easy time.

  100. Hard Place says:

    Age old issue. Woman are more emotional and rationalizing the purchase issue sometimes takes time. So lay out your rational reasons for not buying now w/ a detailed display of the soundness of renting or how expensive housing is relative to renting. Than hit her up with the emotional appeal of having a debt burden and servicing the mortgage knowing that it costs more to rent. Sure tell her moving is a pain in the arse, but appeal to her how much more painful moving is when you are foreclosed out of your home. That emotional argument should seal the deal. It worked for me. Didn’t buy 2 years ago, now living in a 2BR apt and with 2 young kids. My wife has bought into the program and we won’t start looking until next year.

  101. 3b says:

    #92 prtrader: With all due respect. the silent treatment is an insidious form of toture, and it is in my opinion emotional abuse.

    I would not stand for it,and if she engages in this kind of abuse, it will only get worse as time goes by.

  102. prtraders2000 says:

    Rent

    Sounds like we’re in the same boat. My problem is that she is finding homes in our price range, but they are 1.5 hrs from my job. For me waiting a little longer means shortening the commute to something bearable.

    Ray – good perspective. Thanks.

  103. Shore Guy says:

    # 92 Drown your sorrow in beer and televised sports.

  104. njrebear says:

    I think bribing the bribe may be an option.

  105. Shore Guy says:

    Hanging out at a bar and chatting-up women who do not attempt emotional blackmail is another option.

  106. BC Bob says:

    Who bails out the fed?

    “WASHINGTON (AP) — Battling to relieve stressed credit markets, the Federal Reserve has provided a total of $360 billion in short-term loans to squeezed banks since December to help them overcome credit problems.”

    http://money.cnn.com/2008/04/22/news/economy/fed_credit.ap/index.htm?postversion=patrick.net

  107. Shore Guy says:

    108 The printing press and hyperinflation.

  108. BC Bob says:

    “How do you appease a spouse”

    [93],

    Tell her the front door serves two purposes; coming and going.

  109. spam spam bacon spam says:

    ERA Van Syckel Agency offices here on Rt 22 Westbound in Bridgewater has a changeable marquee along the bottom of their agency sign that’s on the front lawn of their office…

    It says something like “The Time to Buy is Now!”

    Except, the marquee is at the BOTTOM of the sign and the grass has overgrown it…

    Maybe it’s supposed to be a subliminal message… ?

    (at any rate, you can see they “forgot” to call Juan’s Lawn Care. “sign” of the times…)

  110. daddyo says:

    I’m in the same boat as prtrader and rent. In fact, after reading Rent #100, I thought maybe I was schizophrenic and my other self had posted that.

    Every time my wife and I begin to talk about housing now, we end up arguing after 5 minutes, and drop the topic. It’s a real sore point, that will remain so for the foreseeable future. We’re stuck in a crap SFH rental with the lease ending shortly, and I have this rotten feeling we will be in the crap now-overpriced SFH rental another year.

  111. pretorius says:

    Mr. Oliver #47,

    I worked for a couple of companies in New Jersey. One of them had an fancy HR operation that got the company in the rankings for things like best places for women to work, best work-life balance, most respected company, best training programs, and on and on. They recruited brainiac grads from best schools all over the country. The only reason I got hired there is I evaded the normal HR process.

    This company really did have great training programs. They even paid for grad school. My friends and I were leaving at 3:30 every day to do masters degrees at NYU and Columbia.

    $50,000 feels like good $ when your 21. But $60,000 doesn’t feel like much when you’re in your mid-20s, read about Wall Street bonuses, pay more attention to what housing costs, and your qualifications equip you for a job paying a lot more in New York. In addition, if you do good work for a New York investment firm, they raise your comp a lot more than 5%. So people I worked with in New Jersey left in droves to work in New York. Everybody traded slightly less job security for a lot more $$$$ potential. Nobody regrets it. Those HR people recruited and trained a lot of talent, but they forgot to pay them what they were worth.

    New Jersey housing valuations partly reflect the influence of New York’s job market, but – unlike Westchester, Fairfield, and Nassau – also reflect New Jersey’s growing tax burden and diminishing telecom and pharma presence. For less than $500,000, you can get a nice home in Cranford which has a genuine town center and a train station, although it would be annoying to change trains in Newark every day. That’s affordable for a lot of people who work in New York, and I don’t think you could get that type of deal in a comparable Westchester or Nassau town.

    That’s what I mean when I say there’s a New Jersey housing arbitrage.

  112. make money says:

    NAR holds an emergency press release to address to New start numbers for March and it’s chief economist says”The market shows signs of stabilizing, we are dancing along the bottom. With all the choices available and lower prices we feel this is the best time, in the last decade, to buy. The fed is continuing to lower rates. You want to take advantage of this and buy before rates become a burden. Right? Also, there is pant up demand and past history indicates that RE doubles every 10 years. That pos cape, now 500k, will be 1M, in 2018. Furthermore, there are indications that Trenton is embarking on constructive, long term structural changes. Therefore we feel that property taxes will not be restrictive, going forward”

    (Sarcasm off)

  113. dblko says:

    Can anyone recommend a good home inspector in lower Westchester, NY?

    I’m easy to panic about everything health related. I want to make sure if we spend all that hard earned money for an overpriced house at least I can sleep well and don’t need to worry about hidden mold, asbestos, radon, lead-paint etc…

  114. make money says:

    BC,

    Who bails out the fed?

    IMF

  115. RentininNJ says:

    Sweden has soh-shill-ism (can’t use the real word) but NJ has meatballs
    http://tinyurl.com/6474o3

    Critics of Gov. Jon Corzine often accuse him of trying to turn New Jersey into a Swedish-style s-oh-shallist state. Even a moment’s reflection shows this is not quite accurate.

    When one thinks of loyal party members being paid overtime to charge their phones, for example, the comparison that comes to mind is not modern Sweden but the old Soviet Union. The same is true of the tens of millions spent on schools that were never built, the no-show jobs in Trenton and so on.

    As for the Swedes, I’ve long suspected that they have been unjustly maligned by the comparison to the Corzine crowd. Earlier this week, I got a chance to test out that theory.

    On the way, we compared Sweden to New Jersey, which has almost the same number of people. It turns out that unlike us Jerseyans, the Swedes get a lot in return for their tax money: Free medical care, free university education, five weeks’ annual vacation and so on. In return for all that, the Swedes pay a high level of taxes, Eskil said, but most feel they are getting a good return on their money.

    The government takes about 45 percent of his paycheck, Eskil told me. At first, that sounds like a lot. But then I started adding up all the different taxes I pay to stay planted in the Garden State. And when I told Eskil about the $23,000 property tax bill one Star-Ledger editor pays on an average home in Montclair, the look on his face was every bit as grim as if he’d just come out of an Ingmar Bergman movie.

    And when I told him that public employees in New Jersey can retire at 55, he was again surprised. In Sweden, public workers have to work till 65, just like the people who pay their salaries, he said.

    As we toured [Ikea], I was filled with admiration for the Nordic efficiency of the whole scheme. And the same holds true for cars. Not too long ago, New Jersey had three auto plants. Now we’ve got zero. Meanwhile, the Swedes continue to sell Saabs and Volvos to New Jersey residents who are glad to get them.

    In the area of education, the Swedes are also ahead. Eskil was amazed to hear about our urban schools with per-pupil costs of $20,000 a year. He was even more amazed that many of those schools are so bad that many parents in those towns pay tuition for their kids to go to private schools. That wouldn’t happen in Sweden. Sweden has school vouchers. In Sweden, the purpose of education is to benefit the public. Here in New Jersey, the purpose of education is to benefit the public employees.

    The same holds true for every other “service” provided by our government. Sweden has s-oh-shallism for everyone. New Jersey has s-oh-shallism for public employees. The rest of us get the bill. That’s the real comparison, and New Jersey does not come out on top.

  116. kettle1 says:

    shore 85

    both of our saying are likely derived from the original phrase from the 1600’s…. a regional think maybe?

  117. Dman says:

    Arby’s owner buying Wendy’s for $2.34 billion stock deal

    http://tinyurl.com/6xgtq3

    COLUMBUS, Ohio (AP) — After two past rejections, the owner of Arby’s shaved roast beef sandwich restaurants is buying Wendy’s, the fast-food chain famous for its made-to-order square hamburgers and chocolate Frosty dessert, for around $2 billion.

    Triarc Companies Inc., which is owned by billionaire investor Nelson Peltz, said Thursday it will pay about $2.34 billion in an all-stock deal for the nation’s third-largest hamburger chain started in 1969 by Dave Thomas. Wendy’s had rejected at least two buyout offers from Triarc.

    Triarc will pay about $26.78 per share for the company, which has about 87 million shares outstanding. The price is a premium of 6 percent from the company’s closing price of $25.32 Wednesday.

  118. make money says:

    Starbucks Corp said on Wednesday it was the latest victim of the U.S. mortgage meltdown.

    Blaming hard-hit housing markets of California and Florida for slowing sales, the coffee shop chain slashed its quarterly and 2008 profit forecast below Wall Street targets and said it faced the “weakest economic environment” in its history.

    The company’s shares tumbled 12 percent on the news, which came four months after company founder Howard Schultz returned as chief executive with a mandate to turn around the struggling U.S. business.

    “The wheels have really come off of this train,” RBC Capital Markets analyst Larry Miller told Reuters, noting his surprise at the warning. “It’s amazing how fast business has derailed. If sales are down mid-single digits, that is a rapid erosion.”

    If you can’t meet expectations and your business model is bust just blame everything on the subprime folks. You see according to Starbucks people took out home equity loans to drink lattes.
    We can’t economically produce products to meet our needs. Now as a nation we borrow the money from foreigners to buy their products- then we paint each others nails and walk dogs for a living.

    How is that a sustainable economic model?

  119. RoadTripBoy says:

    prtraders2000 (103):
    My problem is that she is finding homes in our price range, but they are 1.5 hrs from my job. For me waiting a little longer means shortening the commute to something bearable.

    How do you feel about 3 hours commuting time each day? Will your wife then complain that you’re not spending enough time with/neglecting her? Ah, married life. Good luck.

  120. BC Bob says:

    “IMF”

    Make [116],

    I’M F**ked?

  121. BC Bob says:

    Make [120],

    McDonald’s doesn’t have a problem selling coffee.

  122. Hehehe says:

    Another Mish Missive:

    “Interestingly enough, analysis posted on the Fed’s own website shows why the program is doomed to fail. The conclusion of a Fed sponsored study was that banks and broker dealers will not make short term unsecured loans to each other when instead they can swap increasingly lousy paper with the Fed. ”

    http://www.minyanville.com/articles/Fed-libor-swap-loan-reserves/index/a/16875

  123. Pat says:

    http://www.al.com/news/birminghamnews/index.ssf?/base/news/120904556560150.xml&coll=2

    19 Alabamians join Army under program providing mortgage and business funding

    For a minute, I thought that read “Albanians.”

    You know, I figured it was going to come down to military and housing…just thought it would happen sooner. Mortgage elimination for middle east sign-ups.

  124. 3b says:

    #121 Exactly.

  125. Outofstater says:

    Atlanta suburbs aren’t doing too hot either. A few observations: Two large beautiful subdivisions, wooded lots, walking trails etc sit empty. Not a single house has sold and the developer of one is paying $100K a month in interest (but won’t be able to for long). Little 9-hole golf course (10 bucks a round) is having the worst spring in its history. Girl Scout moms are worried about writing a check for $40. Gas was $3.59 this morning. And generic food, in plain white boxes, has appeared in the local grocery store of this “upscale” area.

  126. Hard Place says:

    RE: $15bb foreclosure relief plan

    At first I thought I would be for the plan, especially if they decide to use it as an affordable housing alternative. What a great way to get affordable housing. Existing structure paid for on the backs of banks who started this unaffordable housing mess to begin with by making poor lending decisions. Problem will be implementing the plan. I could see major problems with have government manage housing dispersed across various neighborhoods in an efficient manner. Lots of room for govt waste and overspending. Let the market set the price. It was government who got us in the mess in the first place by creating the $250k capital gains exclusion and started the home flipping train. Govt is the system that needs fixing, not the real estate market.

  127. VMC says:

    #104 – Tell your wife that a long commute is a prime source of unhappiness – this is an academic finding, not just someone’s opinion. From the Wall St. Journal:

    While we often adjust amazingly well to life’s hardships, commuting is an exception. “You can’t adapt to commuting, because it’s entirely unpredictable,” says Daniel Gilbert, author of “Stumbling on Happiness” and a psychology professor at Harvard University. “Driving in traffic is a different kind of hell every day.”

    I would NEVER buy a place 1.5 hrs from work.

  128. kettle1 says:

    Shore 109 and 108,

    We may be seeing short term inflationary activity, but look at how much debt (aka Money) is being destroyed. banks have written down about 200 Billion so far and could be liable for up to 1 trillion by some estimates. This is massive money supply destruction. Add in housing price drops and while it is a fuzzy picture it looks like we could be seeing long term deflation

  129. kettle1 says:

    i have tried an 1.5 hour commute. It has a huge negative effect on your life in general, less time with family/friends, always coming home annoyed from traffic etc.

    Dont Do It!

  130. Clotpoll says:

    BC (24)-

    “I hear that WS is structuring a new product with food ingredient tranches. After all, there is a vast world now rioting. WS wants to tap into this.”

    In that case, I want to get long high fructose corn syrup.

  131. Clotpoll says:

    BC (25)-

    Now that the UK has ordered the tide out- as it relates to LIBOR- it appears all the bathers are sans pants.

  132. Clotpoll says:

    Cindy (26)-

    Can’t nerve gas be made from almonds, peach pits and apricot pits?

  133. movinBC says:

    #127, 129-

    Am I missing something? Don’t most people who live in BC Haughtyville towns have 1.5-hour commutes each direction to Manhattan…? Surely those folks aren’t all working in NJ.

  134. Clotpoll says:

    Cindy (31)-

    “Banks are finally doing the right thing,” said Don Scordino, president of the Fresno Association of Realtors. “They are bringing down the price to where it needs to be. A year ago, the most unrealistic sellers in the market were the banks.”

    A preview of coming attractions in NJ?

  135. mark says:

    come on now ,,, most bc town advertised as
    minutes form the GW bridge. then a pleasent
    ride to the office.

  136. Shore Guy says:

    # 128

    Ket,

    I suppose the risk is always there but Big Ben is a student of the Great Depression and I don’t think it will happen. I suspect that the Fed (perhaps with assistance of the Marines and Air Force) would take some action tht would cause inflation to ignite. After all, the Fed has tools to deal with inflation, but not much ability to address spiraling deflation.

  137. Clotpoll says:

    BC (65)-

    “Go for it. Earning New York $$$ and paying New Jersey real estate costs is a great arbitrage.”

    I think bi was Pret’s quant on this one.

  138. Clotpoll says:

    gary (67)-

    “I mean the ones lurking on this site from Weichert, Realogy, etc. I await your professional analysis with great anticipation.”

    Gary, I’d reckon that lurking Realtors here are neither professional nor capable of offering analysis.

  139. twice shy says:

    bairen Says:
    April 24th, 2008 at 8:47 am

    Now there are a few nice updated houses below 450 and a real nice 3/1 colonial for 375k.

    bairen,

    the 3/1 colonial has been on the market over a year I believe and is located on Central Ave., not far from what many consider the projects here in town. Don’t waste your time on this one.

    There may be a few buys emerging in the lower end in Westfield but they are few and far between. Cranford, however, has some very attractive listings under $500k, is a decent town and two stops closer to NYC.

  140. Clotpoll says:

    (93)-

    This is a prime example of why the market never goes to 0.

  141. PGC says:

    I took my kids for lunch today and at the next table were two “Mendham Moms” doing lunch after “Little Gym”. While it reaffirmed how well my kids behave in public, I thought I would share a few of the more enjoyable quotes.

    #1 While peeling and slicing an Advocado from her handbag “I must pick up a copy of that Jessica Seinfeld book, I just can’t seem to get these kids to eat anything”
    #2 “Are you sure it’s not alergies, pick me up a copy as well.”

    #2 I’m scheduling Halley and Trey at the moment. Halley has a week free. I think I might sign her up for art class. Trey is so into acting class (He’s 4). Did I tell you he got the lead last week. Although I had trouble explaining why, the huff and puff wouldn’t blow the last house down.

  142. YankeeGal says:

    Hi everyone,

    A friend of mine is looking to relocate to NJ from southern CA. They just sold a lovely 3-bedroom, 2-bath condo in Thousand Oaks for $315K, down from their original asking price of $405K. (I find that amazing – I don’t know if such a condo for that price exists in Morris County.) Her husband makes around $70-$80K/year. She does not work and they have three kids. The youngest one is only 2 so her going back to work and paying daycare is not an option. Hher husband’s office is in Parsippany. They want a 4-bedroom, 2-bathroom house for under $300K with good schools and a decent commute. (I’m 100% serious.) They are flipping out over not just the prices, but the property taxes. I was perfectly straight with her. I said NJ is outrageous. The taxes are not going down anytime soon; if anything they’ll be shooting up some more. She’s looking in towns like Wantage and Vernon, thinking that an hour commute might not be too bad. I told her that it’s an hour commute WITHOUT traffic. I said that’s why we’re renting in a town close to work – we don’t want the stress of commuting. I’m trying to get her to look at some fixer-uppers in Roxbury, Randolph and Mt. Arlington in her price range, but they’re not too thrilled about getting a fixer upper. I said that’s all they’re going to get now unless they want to pay big bucks. They would consider renting but anything decent is at least $2000, and they’re used to a $1000 mortgage. Besides, if they do get a house for under $300K (assuming they decide to break down and get one of theser fixer uppers) they’re monthly payment would be around $2000 anyway. Any ideas? I think her husband should find a new job in a cheaper area. However, he works in IT and we all know where those jobs are going. I have a feeling they are going to move here and be miserable.

  143. Sybarite says:

    What’s with Gold? Temporary dip, or has the rally run its course?

  144. movinBC says:

    #142:

    I don’t have kids, so maybe this is clueless of me to suggest, but why is her going back to work “not an option”? If her youngest is 2, that means they’re all old enough to be in some sort of day care or preschool, right? Even if the mom is spending a large portion of her take-home for child care, it’s an investment in her family’s future, because at some point, the kids won’t want Mom around 24/7.

    Simplest solution to me is to earn more money. Or, rent.

  145. kettle1 says:

    Re 143

    who was it who had their plumber suggesting they buy silver at 20. you know that that plumber is panicking now. Although my opinion is that this is just the lull before the storm, similar to the housing market.

  146. Clotpoll says:

    yank (142)-

    “They want a 4-bedroom, 2-bathroom house for under $300K with good schools and a decent commute. (I’m 100% serious.)”

    Yank, you should tell them to stop the car in Kansas. Indeed, they will be miserable here. And, NJ certainly needs yet another underemployed, underpaid IT guy.

  147. 3b says:

    #140 clot: This is a prime example of why the market never goes to 0.

    And sadly why so many marriages are unhappy.

  148. BC Bob says:

    [144],

    Some players decided to take off their jockstrap. Will dress again when field conditions improve.

  149. Clotpoll says:

    vodka (145)-

    Another battlefield where the weak longs have been blown out.

  150. Jill says:

    Pat #124: So it turns out that comedian Marc Maron, former Morning Sedition host on Air America Radio. Maron predicted a kind of “Visa Army”, where you would have your debt forgiven in return for military service. I think the video is on his MySpace site.

  151. Hehehe says:

    “Sybarite Says:
    April 24th, 2008 at 1:49 pm
    What’s with Gold? Temporary dip, or has the rally run its course?”

    Gartman no longer has a position

  152. Jaw says:

    The 10 yr yield is going crazy. Is there some new news out there that I am missing? We were at 3.50% less than 2 weeks ago.

  153. lostinny says:

    My marriage must have the roles reversed. I have been the one doing all the RE research. DH happily agreed to waiting until the market comes back to reality. I wonder if I was married to a woman would I have had as easy a time convincing her to wait. After listening to all of you, I’m guessing the answer would be no.

  154. YankeeGal says:

    #144.. “I don’t have kids, so maybe this is clueless of me to suggest, but why is her going back to work “not an option”? ”

    Oh, I agree. She had her third kid because her second was about to go in to kindergarten and she knew she’d have to go back to work… so she had the third so she could stay home for five more years. She thinks I’m a terrible mother because I work. Meanwhile, I only have one child (he’s 8) because of this reason, and I rent so I can be close to work and my family in case of emergencies. We also have savings, college funds saved and retirement money, which she has none of.

    Clotpoll… LOVED the Kansas reference… HAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHA

  155. Clotpoll says:

    3b (147)-

    The emotional housing decision battle is a symptom of a much deeper problem.

    “Nesting instinct” is another way of saying “flight to safety”. There was a lot of that after 9/11, and it was perfectly understandable.

    However, a rashly-taken decision to buy a house these days- without careful examination- can hardly be termed a flight to safety. It’s more like Russian roulette: if you can stay in the house through this down cycle, you’ll probably be OK. If you lose your job, get sick or get transferred, you’re toast.

  156. movinBC says:

    #153-

    I’m in your camp… DH is deferring to my judgment on housing market matters.

    I suggest these fellers request that their wives read this blog daily for a few months, and perhaps we’ll see more marital success.

  157. Clotpoll says:

    Jaw (152)-

    A lot of people who had their money parked in a safe place (Treasuries) woke up one morning a couple of weeks ago and realized their parking bill was way too high.

  158. Al says:

    Clot – Are you advocating for …NOT buying a house ???

    There is no job safety now – only for MD’s in hospitals and goverment employees.

  159. movinBC says:

    #154 Yankeegal –

    I hear you… I plan on continuing to work if I have kids.

    It’s a simple numbers argument. If you want to live the “good life” with owning a house and having savings and college fund and retirement, you need to earn more and spend less.

    Good on ya for teaching your son about responsibility and independence. I hope your values rub off on your friend… I’ve lost a few friends who couldn’t wait to have kids so they could quit working…!!!

  160. Pat says:

    There are people who quit working when they have kids?

    Where’s that at, Delaware?

  161. YankeeGal says:

    #159 movinBC

    Not that I’m badmouthing my friend for not working… she’s super frugal and very resourceful and is so good at saving money every way she can. But even doing this, they still struggle and can’t save for college or retirement. And god forbid something should happen to her husband, they will really be in trouble.

    I do envy her spending all that time with her kids, however. Even though I work, I think having one parent home is definitely better for the kids… but not necessarily better for the parents!!!

  162. 3b says:

    #155 clot: I have seen it happen time and time again. And it always end badly

    Not to start a battle of the sexes here, but using the term nesting instinct, somehow seems to let some women off the hook, as far as making a hugh financial decesion, based on emotion.

    Nesting Instinct? You can nest anywhere, all you need is a decent roof over you head and 2 people committed to making the right decesions. If you are not on the same page, it will never work.

    No sense having your own nest if it will be filled with money woes, regrets, and recrimiantions.

  163. YankeeGal says:

    #160 Pat

    I live in Hanover Twp and when my son was in kindergarten, I think at least 60-70% of the mothers I knew with kids the same age did not work. They are starting to go back to work now; however, they mostly work in the school system and have summers off.

  164. Jaw says:

    I don’t know if this was posted earlier, but now even NAR doesn’t want any more rate cuts.

    Yun offered a caution. “With elevated inflation, the Federal Reserve should be extra careful about further rate cuts,” he said. “Mortgage interest rates, which do not move directly with Fed funds rates, may rise measurably and hurt the housing recovery if inflation gets out of hand. Monetary stimulus is plentiful – what is needed more at this point is a home buyer tax credit to get buyers off the sidelines and prevent the market from overshooting on the downside.”

    http://www.realtor.org/press_room/news_releases/2008/existing_home_sales_slip_in_march.html

  165. Jaw says:

    Clotpoll (157),

    It was about time they woke up.

  166. RentininNJ says:

    YankeeGal,

    Why NJ? Do they have ties here? If not, they have no business moving to NJ on one $70k-$80k income. Their property taxes alone will consume 10% of their gross income. They will be miserable here. At least where they lived, they had nice weather.

    Clot is absolutely right. They should stop in Kansas and throw away their map.

    It may sound offensive, but you may save them a lot of misery later if you are blunt with them now.

  167. 3b says:

    #152 jaw: One postitve reading on jobless claims, and the fear trade is over (for today), back to risk in the stock market.

    It is all good, that is until we see what next Friday’s April employemnt numbers look like.

  168. Nom Deplume says:

    [141] PGC

    Hilarious. I am looking forward to teaching the little Nom-ette (5 next month) how to understand the Halleys and Treys of the world (and their parents), so she can eat their lunch. Think I will start with poker so she can get their lunch money. That will do for starters.

  169. movinBC says:

    #161 Yankeegal

    Exactly – I was going to add a “PS” in there to the effect of “What if something happens to her husband?” … Must be horrible to constantly worry about having to support yourself if the unthinkable happens.

    On working – it’s not an all-or-nothing thing, either. Maybe she could consider a p/t gig, or working from home. Once you’ve pulled yourself out of the workforce, I’m willing to bet employers will be less flexible with such arrangements, but it’s worth a try. …But I’m guessing from what you’ve said that your friend isn’t likely to listen to reason on this.

    And again, this is why making a housing decision entirely on emotion will get you and your family into huge trouble. Somebody’s been watching those NAR commercials!

    Also: I’ll go out on a limb and say your son probably will end up respecting you more for working than if you’d decided not to.

  170. Jill says:

    Regarding 1-1/2 hour commute: If you are a guy with a wife who takes care of all housework and cooking and doesn’t need a lot of attention and is OK doing most of the child care, you can do it. If you ARE said woman, even if you don’t have kids, you can do it till you’re about 40. Then burnout sets in.

  171. movinBC says:

    #162 – 3b:

    *Standing ovation and thunderous applause*

  172. twice shy says:

    YankeeGal,

    Three kids is enough to justify an at-home spouse even if they are in school. There’s plenty that comes up before, during and after school, not to mention domestic chores.

    On their income, renting is the best option. Why risk buying in a new area with a new job when you’ll both probably be suffering from major culture shock? Suggest she take a stab at becoming a bitter renter like the rest of us and hanging out here for a few buying tips. There’s certainly no lack of rental housing, and while rents may be high, they aren’t as high as ownership costs.

  173. BC Bob says:

    “Nesting Instinct? You can nest anywhere, all you need is a decent roof over you head and 2 people committed to making the right decesions. If you are not on the same page, it will never work.”

    3b,

    Bingo.

  174. gary says:

    Should I go long on short-grain rice or short on long-grain rice?

  175. movinBC says:

    #172 twice shy –

    “There’s plenty that comes up before, during and after school”

    Like college for three kids, for example. And retirement.

  176. gary says:

    clotpoll [138],

    As Homer Simpson would say: DOH!!!

  177. RentininNJ says:

    The 10 yr yield is going crazy. Is there some new news out there that I am missing? We were at 3.50% less than 2 weeks ago.

    Stocks have been soaring over the last few weeks. The constant talk of a recession has subsided, many now expect a short mild downturn. Many people think the bad news is now all on the table & we have rounded the corner on write-downs. Even the bad news doesn’t seem to phase the market; hey, it could have been worse.

    So, nervous investors are coming out of their treasury bunkers and buying equities again, believing the storm is behind us.

    So…now I think the top is in (or we are close). We are completing a bear market rally and I would not be surprised to see the next leg down in the very near future.

  178. 3b says:

    BC Bob/chgofinance: Are you guys fmailiar with Matrix Unit Trust Ser 2 High-Yield? They look like ETF’s or perhaps UIT’s.

    A family member bought these from his broker, but does not know what he bought.

  179. Al says:

    RentininNJ Says:
    April 24th, 2008 at 2:25 pm
    YankeeGal,

    Why NJ? Do they have ties here? If not, they have no business moving to NJ on one $70k-$80k income. Their property taxes alone will consume 10% of their gross income. They will be miserable here. At least where they lived, they had nice weather.

    Clot is absolutely right. They should stop in Kansas and throw away their map.

    It may sound offensive, but you may save them a lot of misery later if you are blunt with them now.

    I’d agree – 70-80K, with 3 kids moving to NJ is absolutelly doesn’t make sense. Our family of 3 (one toddler) with me making about 90K is not struggling but if we do buy a house it will not be easy.
    wife is looking for a job right now, but the job market sucks big time for biotech.

    BTW – anybody need biochemist for hire? – PhD will gladly take MS position and pay…

  180. gary says:

    PGC [141],

    “Halley and Trey”

    That’s friggin’ beautiful.

    Geez, and I thought I hit the jackpot with Graydon and Ellery.

  181. YankeeGal says:

    #166 Renting in NJ

    They are moving here because they want out of California and he could transfer to he Parsippany office. He could also telecommute a couple of days a week. They don’t have family in NJ but her family is all on Long Island, so it would be nice for her to be closer since they are getting up in age.

    I have been pretty blunt with her regarding the house prices, taxes, I also told her that IT is very volatile in NJ and there’s no guarantee that his job is going to be stable.

  182. Al says:

    gary Says:
    April 24th, 2008 at 2:34 pm
    Should I go long on short-grain rice or short on long-grain rice?

    Most importantly go with WHITE RICE.

    White rice can be stored in hermetically sealed container under 70F for over 10 years.

    Brown rice doesn’t store for more than a year at about 70F.

  183. lisoosh says:

    I’m going to stand up and throw this back to the guys:

    Sure there are women pushing for a house, be it peer pressure, nesting or a million other reasons.

    BUT – there are also plenty of men pushing to purchase early – because of peer pressure (you know you get it), ego (look at me the big “provider” of the family), the investment angle, so they can build their workshop and a million other reasons.

    Plus, I know of more than one woman who has tried to get her husband to lower the price of a home for sale only to have HIM quibble and cry about the work he has put it, the effort, the materials, the investment “the house is his baby”, yada yada yada.

    So don’t go trashing the women. Got it?

    And add me to the chicks holding the husband back from diving in to buy a house.

  184. movinBC says:

    #183 lisoosh

    Agreed 100% – it’s a personality thing, not a sex or gender thing. In many households, it’s the woman who keeps the books.

  185. gryffindor says:

    On the nesting comments – I live in another state with my own life and career, yet my mom, who is fed up of living in an NJ apartment, has now stuck me in between her and my dad to find out why my dad is stalling in finding a house. They were going to rent a house that fell through, and she is now thoroughly angry and sick of living in an apartment for 2.5 years. Sucks for them having moved back to NJ from an area where the housing market wasn’t out of control. I get the sense from my dad he is watching the market tumble before jumping in since neither of them want to live in a 1960s POS and overpay taxes to a school system they won’t use.

  186. gary says:

    Al [182],

    Most importantly go with WHITE RICE.

    Gee, that’s solid advice but I hope that doesn’t make me a rice racist.

  187. John says:

    My mother-in-law says their is an old German saying the Baby Brings the Bread. Two earners work out fine I noticed in business if the two met once both their careers are doing fine. I know plenty of high paid dual income couples but extremely few you both did it after marriage, kinda like a senior lawyer married another lawyer. Problem is if two cube dwellers marry and both try to split responsiblilities of raising kids neither are getting too far. My one brother in law stayed home because of that. My wife left work in 2000 when we were both making peanuts and I spent 2000-2006 working like a dog on my career. Eight years later I alone make double our combined income from 2000. I say suck it up, pick which one of the married couple has the most earnings potential and go for it. There is no way I could have worked till 10pm if my wife was also working till 10pm without my wife pitching in 100% on her end. Quite frankly man or women it doesn’t matter the breadwinner gets the bread at work. Even Rosie brings home the bacon and her wife is behind her. Even Hillery has Bill behind her. Man or Women someone has to take the lead as you both can put in 100% effor and if you both put in 80% at work you both will end up in dead end jobs. Plus it is not forever those hours, just the six the ten years to get to the top and then you set the hours.

  188. John says:

    Hey YankeeGal I read that a stay at home wife is worth 130k a year. My wife reminds me of that and has stated if I can find her a job paying that with 9am to 3pm hours only on school days and I can get her a maid she will go back to work. Otherwise she is back at work once they hit college to help pay for it all.

  189. x-underwriter says:

    YankeeGal Says:
    He could also telecommute a couple of days a week.
    They should look over in PA if he can do this. The $80,000 will go much farther there and the commute won’t be bad doing it 2 or 3 days a week. They might also want to consider going straight north over the border into NY. It doesn’t take that much time going up 287 and getting over the border and I don’t thing there’s as much traffic as on 80. Both options will put them in more rural environments but at least they won’t be killing themselves financially either.
    I will always reccomend renting when you move to a new area regardless so you can get to know the place before commiting yourself to a house. If you don’t like it there, its easy to move if you rent.

  190. lisoosh says:

    movinBC – Never say never.

    Until you actually have kids, you don’t know exactly how you will handle it, or your employer for that matter. There are so many variables that come up, so many maybes.

    I thought I would work after kids. And then I had an employer who did his d@mndest to get rid of me before my first was born because he didn’t like dealing with absenses, so I was grateful to get my maternity leave.
    Then you breastfeed and find that pumping isn’t quite as easy as you thought so you are tied to the tyke on demand. Plus the kid doesn’t sleep much at night so during the day you are a zombie.
    Then you look for part time work, but find that you are charged full day daycare if you run over certain hours but there are no part time jobs with those hours. That is if a good daycare facility has part time spots, which many don’t.
    Then of course there is the issue of working full time, but throwing in commute and meetings and all that other stuff, and the kid is in daycare from 7 in the morning to 7 at night. Not that uncommon. Then you would have to rush home, rush to cook a meal (not that 7 is a great time for dinner for a toddler) get the kid in bed. No quality time. Shopping on the weekends.
    Then you could get pregnant again and that is pretty much the end of the road, daycare eats up most of the money, the kids never see their mother and the boss isn’t pleased because you have to take all sorts of time off for illnesses, mothers day teas and all the rest.

    So yes. Staying home when kids are little is a financial drain, it can also be an emotional drain too because lets face it, toddlers aren’t all that fascinating all the time. And yes, it would be tough if something happened to the husband, but it would also shock the husband up the wazoo to deal with all the stuff that comes up daily that the wife deals with and pay for people to replace her – housekeepers, cooks, nannies etc. Lets face it – raising kids is easier as a two person job.

    Kids are expensive and a massive time-suck. Whether you work or not. They are also worth it. There are mothers out there who work and parent, but they juggle and strive and plenty gives. Even when they have the really good, flexible high paying job and the nanny and the housekeeper and the understanding boss. Not everybody has that advantage. But everybody tries to do the best they can for their kids in the best way that they possibly can.

    So unless you have actually walked in those shoes, perhaps you ought to cut down on the attitude towards anyone who takes time out of their life to full time parent their kids.

    And if money is the be all and end all and heaven forbid a child might get in the way of the “good life”, don’t have kids at all.

  191. John says:

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  192. BubbleYum says:

    movinBC Says:

    I don’t have kids, so maybe this is clueless of me to suggest, but why is her going back to work “not an option”?

    You’re going to get it now . . .

  193. John says:

    I find it highly insulting the term “working mother”. My wife works her butt off at home and then you get some snot nosed working parent who has a maid, nanny and gets all take out food who is sitting in an air conditioned office catching up with her friends on e-mail making snide comments to the stay at home mom’s by questioning what they do and staying they are non-working Moms, what bull crap. My wife was in the hospital with our third one and out of commission for FOUR months. Taking care of a four year old, a five year old and managing a wife in and out of the hospital was a nightmare and incrediably hard. Going to work is a vacation next to being a stay at home Mom to three young kids!!

  194. Doyle says:

    I smell a stay-at-home vs working parent argument… it usually commences every six months or so. Actually, were probably overdue.

  195. movinBC says:

    #190 Lisoosh –

    No attitude. I’m honestly listening. I didn’t say “never.” I said “plan on.” I can only speak from what I already know.

    What’s the argument for having kids? Again, no attitude, I’m honestly asking.

  196. Sean says:

    Most men simply don’t know how to control their wives properly and they end up getting walked around the block every day. These girly-men usually end up relegated to the basement for the rest of their lives where they can watch the old TV from college and drink one or two Coors Light per week.

    {sarcasm off and bullet proof vest on}

  197. John says:

    Gasoline could hit $7 a gallon in four years: CIBC Crude predicted to top $200 by 2012 on tight supplies, pushing gas higher,

    Yea those houses way out in PA and NJ are going to be worthless soon when gas is 7 a gallon.

    My friend who is a Partner has a stay at home wife and they don’t have kids, they have a maid and she does not cook. She is eight years younger, has a smoking hot body and hot clothes and is always there to make him happy. If she worked it would make her grumpy, fat and tired. He would not like that.

  198. John says:

    Sean that is why women invented the split level house with no basement or attic where the garage is converted to a kids playroom. The men have nowhere to hide.

  199. kettle1 says:

    john 197,

    careful, you are starting to sound like me.

  200. JBJB says:

    lisoosh

    Good summary. We are it the position now of deciding on how to handle the whole back to work issue. We had our first child in March and my wife is scheduled to go back to work full time on June 1. I have been encouraging her to try it for a few weeks to see how it feels, if she doesn’t want to continue, either negotitate with her boss for flexible work hours or leave. Her boss is a prick so I don’t expect much fleixibility. I would just assume she stay home, but she does want to continue her career at some level. I guess we will just have to live through it for a while and find a balance. This is one of the rare times I am glad to be a renter, if we were tied to a morgtage and propert taxes, there would really be no option.

  201. Mike NJ says:

    Quite frankly, having children and balancing one or two careers while living in NJ and commuting is pure torture and was one of the hardest things I have ever had to go through to get to an equitable solution. My wife works in mid-town for Pfizer. Where her job shines is the lack of stress and the benefits are outstanding but her pay is about a third of mine. We came to the conclusion that she would go back to work part time mon-weds if we found a nanny that was perfect. After all was said and done we saw that over the years she would be putting into her 401K and getting the match while also getting us benefits (50 a month full family coverage). The net take home pay benfit of her working after paying the nanny is not much but it is the above the line benefits that we decided were worth the shot. We got lucky and found that perfect nanny and so far so good. One of the other reasons she stayed on is that Pfizer still has a full pension plan and at 58 she retires with full pay and benefits for life! I figured it was worth the shot to try and see if this all works out. Three weeks in and we have not killed each other yet, but there have been some close calls ;)

  202. movinBC says:

    #202 Mike –

    Cool story… thanks v much for sharing. Keep us posted, and best of luck.

  203. lisoosh says:

    movinBC Says:

    “What’s the argument for having kids? Again, no attitude, I’m honestly asking.”

    Why not have kids? It’s what we are biologically driven to do to ensure the continuation of the species. It’s what fills life with “life”, and energy and unpredictability. And if you look at it really well, it is about the only way you can have grandkids and people to come and visit you when you are old and grey and a connection with the present when all you can remember is the past. It’s part of life.

    All I can honestly tell you is that no matter how smart you are or how much you understand how much it will change your life there is nothing that can really prepare you. It changes everything. From your brain chemistry and neural paths (look it up), to how you view the future to how long it takes you to go to the store to buy milk.

    There is no way to prepare anybody for how overwhelming the change can be. For how tied you become, to how much a tiny little person, no matter how respectful or well behaved (and no mine aren’t) can dominate your life. And how much they cost. It is what it is.

    That said, people have them, they have to take responsibility for them and the vast majority, whether employed or not, do the absolute best they can. And they ALL sacrifice in some way. Either by falling behind in a career, or not having as much spare cash, or not spending as much time as they would like with their kids, or not being able to show up for some class production, or not being able to go to the bathroom in peace and quiet or whatever.

    And most of all I really dislike the way so many women who choose one path over another (either one) are talked about in derisory terms.

  204. BubbleYum says:

    John Says:

    Going to work is a vacation next to being a stay at home Mom to three young kids!!

    Just curious–is there some reason you don’t give your wife a break and let her take the vacation of paid employment?

  205. lisoosh says:

    sean/John

    OK both were pretty funny.

  206. (Former)NJGal says:

    YankeeGal and movinBC, I speak now as a mother of a 5 month old who is working full time, with a long commute, and I wouldn’t have it any other way for all the reasons you stated – god forbid something happened to my husband, what happens when the baby is older, etc. (although I admit I am looking for a job closer to home just to ease up on the babysitter hours – another plus is that we have a wonderful nanny for our daughter – we lucked out). I don’t believe too many people can take 5-10 years away from their career and then get back into it without taking a serious step back and possibly never making it back to where they were again.

    Then again, I am in a position where I earn more than what a stay at home mom is supposedly worth, and my husband earns way more than that, so the decision had a couple of other wrinkles for us. Part of why we both work is exactly so we can live in this area, near family and friends, and still save for retirement and college. Sure, we could move away and I could stay home, but in the end, with the exception of us having a little more free time, we’d still likely be in the same financial position in the end. And sure, things might change in the future, but right now this is what works for us.

    Also, why are wives the ones getting so much flack for their emotional decision to buy a home? My husband was the driving force there, and not because he felt the need to compete with anyone or felt like he needed a house because he was getting older. He’s just a suburbanite at heart – he wanted a yard and a grill and space for our giant dog. I suggested renting while we looked, and had we not found the house we did, I would have done that (because our apt. didn’t have a W/D and that would have killed me with a newborn). He reads all the headlines and gets worried that we bought too soon, but I don’t do regrets, because I’ve certainly made worse decisions in my life than not timing the market exactly. We’re there to stay, and can stay for 30 years if we have to!

  207. kettle1 says:

    they call this a prediction,???
    so with a 55% margin of error, at what point does this become propoganda?

    The American economy is in a recession, which is projected to be short and mild, while oil will likely trade at $91 a barrel by the end of the year, though the range of that forecast is plus or minus $50, Standard & Poor’s said Thursday.

  208. JBJB says:

    Mike

    Damn, are situations are almost the same. My wife works at Memorial Sloan Ketteirng, great benefits and all, but salary sucks. Thankfully, I work in NJ and can work from home at anytime. I am glad to hear you haven’t killed each other, hope we can same the same by the end of this summer.

  209. movinBC says:

    #204 lisoosh –

    No, I agree with what you’re saying about either side being talked about with derision, which is why I wanted to make clear that I was referring to the situation YG brought up specifically. For their circumstances and desires, it seemed logical for me to ask why her going back to work was not an option.

    I would personally be concerned about relying that much on others. But as we’ve established, I can only go on what I’ve experienced. And there’s more than one right answer to this question, fortunately.

    I find it a dilemma that it’s on women to make a choice for one path or another. I think we should be using our smarts to change the system and find alternative solutions.

  210. lisoosh says:

    Movin –

    Put it another way. My sister-in-law always said pretty much the same as you.
    I left her, and my husband in care of my kids for 2 days when I had to go to a conference.

    They freaked. They were totally overwhelmed and falling apart by the time I got back, never mind the state of the house and she is a neat freak.
    Of course now she insists that it is “different when they are your own” and she is right. It is harder. You can’t give them back.

  211. YankeeGal says:

    Let me say that I give my friend a world of credit. Even though she has no safety net financially, has sacrified a lot to stay home and is a wonderful full-time mom to her kids. I am very envious that she is willing and able to do this. I am a work-outside-the-home mother (like that phrase better, John?) because I have to be. But, since I HAVE to work outside the home, that is also the reason why we decided not to have any more children. Even though I have every advantage… I work ten minutes away, my mom is in town for emergencies, I have never missed a school event or ball game, I can work from home when my son is sick so he never, EVER goes to school ill…. we know that adding another one will just be too stressful. I think it’s better for children to have siblings (I am one of four myself), but what if our new child has special needs? How would we handle it? I have a retarded brother and if my mother worked outside the home I don’t know how my parents could have done it.. My husband and I have a hard enough time dealing with our one healthy child. I know other moms who work outside the home who have 3-4 kids and their kids are wonderful. Some mothers can do it with more than one – I know I couldn’t. Unless my husband starts pulling in a lot more money!

  212. movinBC says:

    #204 lisoosh –

    Also, thanks for sharing your experience – given the expenses (monetarily and otherwise), I’ve gone back and forth with the thought of whether to have kids or not.

    Seems like most people who have kids don’t regret it though, right?!

  213. BC Bob says:

    “She is eight years younger, has a smoking hot body and hot clothes and is always there to make him happy.”

    John,

    May be cheaper to be Client # 10.

  214. rhymingrealtor says:

    What’s the argument for having kids? Again, no attitude, I’m honestly asking

    There is no argument for having kids. What children do to your life is inexplicable. The highs and lows have to be felt to be understood.
    KL

  215. Al says:

    To #204:

    And new parent I wholeheartedly agree with every word.

    Great Post.

    John – I also agree with your idea that only one parent can actually achieve big success because it does take dedication and commitment and to get to the top you have to sacrifice “Balance Between Life and Work”, because you will be competing with people who do not have kids and their life is their Job.

    One point though – amount of “TOP” positions is a lot smaller than people who want them. So there are always people who did sacrifice a lot, and did not get to the top, wheither due to lack of talent, lor bad luck.

  216. movinBC says:

    #212 YG

    You make a good point. Your friend doesn’t seem like she’d have a support system nearby to help her, whereas many of us are lucky enough (myself excluded) to be near family who can pitch in. Maybe they could consider living even closer to his family (hers is in Socal, right?) for the assistance.

  217. BC Bob says:

    “they call this a prediction,???’

    kettle [209],

    It’s called what the f*ck do I know?

  218. movinBC says:

    #215 rr –

    Worth it?

  219. (Former)NJGal says:

    BC, I don’t regret it – I just happen to have the most precious, beautiful baby in the whole wide world (cause I’m not prejudiced or anything).

    But YG, I might end up like you – with one. I’ve been thinking about it a lot. The special needs issue is interesting, but I have a really kind of evil one – I worry that my next one won’t be nearly as easy or nice as this one. After all, I am the reason I have a younger sister – she is the reason my parents stopped at two:)

  220. kettle1 says:

    214 BC,

    cheaper and financially more prudent. If you marry for looks you have bought a depreciating asset that carries substantial liabilities. Also consider that this expensive purchase has a low level of utilization as the asset will only be making you happy (in what ever unspecified manner) for a fraction of the life of the purchase. Client # 10 is financially more prudent as he has less liability and is paying a one time fee for essentially 100% utilization of the asset for the period purchased.

  221. Al says:

    movinBC Says:
    April 24th, 2008 at 3:43 pm
    #204 lisoosh –

    Also, thanks for sharing your experience – given the expenses (monetarily and otherwise), I’ve gone back and forth with the thought of whether to have kids or not.

    Seems like most people who have kids don’t regret it though, right?!

    I was truly and genuinely regretting having my son, last night when he woke up at 3AM and decided to play for 2 hours. My wife was sick, So I stayed up with him. I left home to go to work at 6… That sucked.

    Try explaining 11 month old that it is time to sleep – it is amazing how long and loud they can cry……..

  222. JBJB says:

    movin

    “Seems like most people who have kids don’t regret it though, right?!”

    Was the best thing that ever happended to me. I wish we would have started earlier though.

    I was one of those dudes in my late twenties who swore I would never have kids. I really enjoyed being able to fly out to Vegas on Thursday evening, blow about 3 grand partying and gambling, and be on the redeye back for work on Monday morning. It does gets old though. The first time that baby smiles back at you, it will melt your heart and change your life forever.

  223. movinBC says:

    #222 Al,

    Genuinely and truly regretting?! Scary!

    Does that happen often enough to eat through your sick days? (All disclaimers on my experience, again.)

  224. movinBC says:

    #223 JBJB –

    How early did you, and do you wish you had, started?

  225. John says:

    Actually it is the women who work who have less of a financial safety net once the marriage breaks ten year. Once a women hits ten years of marriage she is entitled to her full share of his SS in retirement and 50% of the pension he earned during their marriage. In addition, a working Mom with three will be expected to continue working after divorce while the stay at home mom can use it for leverage for better alimony.

    There are lots of less top positions but since you need to work late for many years, speak at conference, get an MBA, get certifications and network there are a lot less qualified applicants for those jobs. So it kinda works out. My friend who works down the block from me makes around 100k less than he should due to hen pecking ,now his wife is hen pecking him cause he does not make as much as his non hen pecked friemns, now that is funny.

  226. kettle1 says:

    Al,

    Mine is 10 months, i feel your pain ;).

    Movin BC: ask me again in 18 years….. Kids are lifes version of a roller coaster. they will the source of some of your happiest moments as well as the source of some of you most frustrating moments.

  227. lisoosh says:

    Movin –

    The best solution is safe affordable and plentiful child care so that the choice becomes easier and a societal attitude geared more towards the family. Unfortunately, that doesn’t exist here.

    On the other hand, relying on others to some degree becomes a must at some point, or perhaps it is better to call it teamwork.

    However men and women ARE different, women tend more towards caring for the kids – we are biologically designed for it. I don’t see this as a feminist issue or that women are less than men, just different. We carry the kids, give birth to them, feed them. Even our brains rewire during pregnancy so we can better withstand sleeplessness and multitask more effectively. Some woman are nestier than others. So what?

    At work I was always a workaholic. I miss it. I liked it. I liked wearing a suit, making my own money. I liked being taken seriously, I liked being Me rather than a Mom as part of a package. On the other hand, I had always make more than my husband so my staying home gave him the opportunity to step up as the provider, which was good for him too.
    Plus, we have been able to live, in NJ and with 2 small kids on one income, invaluable experience. It is good to know that our budget can deal with that. If something should ever happen, we don’t have a lifestyle that would be devastated by the loss of one income, and as I return to work, the extra income will be some very nice gravy.

  228. YankeeGal says:

    #220 (Former)NJGal – too funny. Actually, several of my friends who had the perfect first baby decided, oh this is easy! and had another one… and let me tell you EVERY ONE OF THEM is a nightmare. The kids eventually grew out of it by age 4 or so but the first few years were tough. And I’ve heard that going from one to two is harder than you think. Then again, I am a second child and my mother said I was easier than my older brother. Maybe because I was a girl. Anyway, I guess sometimes it’s better to quit while you’re ahead!! LOL

  229. kettle1 says:

    JBJB

    the other thing that gets you is when they snuggled up under chin while being held against your chest

  230. JBJB says:

    Moving

    I’m 34 now, wife is 36. It’s not that were too old, it’s just that babies (and toddlers I’m sure) take a lot of energy, and I had a lot more when I was 28!

  231. BC Bob says:

    “BC, I don’t regret it “,

    NJ(Former) [221],

    ???

  232. movinBC says:

    #231 JBJB –

    Much agreed – I’m 29, and thinking back to the glory days of the energy I had when I was 21!

    So I can only imagine how much it will dwindle into my 30s. Add a few kids into the mix… I have no idea if I will be able to keep up!

  233. lisoosh says:

    Movin – I should also point out that my entire family lives 3,000 miles away and my husbands 6,000. So that is another reason why I stay home at the moment.

    My backup plan if ‘something happens” – move to be next to my parents or sister.
    His backup plan if “something happens” – find another wife.

  234. movinBC says:

    #232 BC Bob –

    This was for me… bad choice of handle. I’ll switch.

  235. BC Bob says:

    Kettle [222],

    LOL. Never any depreciation nor writedowns. Brilliant!

  236. lisoosh says:

    Yankee/ (former)NJ Gal –

    Yup. You get one sweet one and one devil. When the sweet comes first, the next one is a shocker.
    Mine were the opposite. My daughter was tough. When my son arrived I was constantly surprised by how easy everything was with him. Course NOW he is an instigating little monster with an angelic smile who likes to make his sister scream.

    Oh well.

  237. PGC says:

    “And I’ve heard that going from one to two is harder than you think.”

    Our third is due in July and I have been told that with three it is total chaos. You will always have 2 against 1. I have friends with 4 and their life is hectic although they get to a point where the older ones take care of the smaller ones.

    I’m gearing up for another six months without sleep, but it is always worth it.

  238. movinB says:

    #234 lisoosh –

    Ya the “plan” for us (if kids) would be to move near my folks (BC) so we could both continue to work. If I had to stay here in CA, I’d be singing a different tune.

  239. Al says:

    On the more positive note, no matter how shitt y my day at work was or how tired I am, when I come home and he smiles at me ans squeals -da-da-da-da it does make me feel a lot better.

    But so far – I believe a parent who’d say – I never regret even a bit having kids – will be either:

    1. Lying to you or himself.
    2. Have never changed diaper at 2AM at night.
    3. Have a very understanding spouse and her/his family and babysitter and never has to do anything with the kid except play and hold a baby for short periods of time.

    P.S. My memory of first two month of baby life – baby is screaming, crying, po0ping, torture device, who never sleeps when you do.
    We were lucky – our baby actually started sleeping through the night (mostly) after 2 month.

  240. (Former)NJGal says:

    YG, quit while you’re ahead is EXACTLY the way I’m thinking. Of course, my little sister is insulted by that, but it’s not her decision, is it? And she didn’t have to deal with herself as a baby. I can’t remember it well, but as my mother says, well, you slept through the night at 3 weeks – so did your sister, but that’s only because she had no choice – she screamed 12 hours straight a day and was exhausted. Heck, she still screams a lot.

    I’m not sure that I could handle a colicky baby, nor would it feel fair to me to leave such a baby home with a nanny. Right now, my daughter is an angel – she wasn’t the easiest at first (which I also attribute to us being first time parents), but she has become a very happy, sweet and even-tempered baby. Of course, she’s only 5 and a half months old, but I’m hoping this continues.

  241. Al says:

    Sorry, wrong tags.

  242. (Former)NJGal says:

    “You will always have 2 against 1.”

    Ha, my poor husband was the middle child. His sister was 3 years older, his brother 5 years younger. One day he had saved his money to buy himself a pizza (he was a growing teenage boy) and when he wanted to eat it, they stole it, locked themselves with it in the bathroom, ate what they wanted, and licked the rest.

  243. Al says:

    (Former)NJGal Says:
    April 24th, 2008 at 4:12 pm
    “You will always have 2 against 1.”

    Ha, my poor husband was the middle child. His sister was 3 years older, his brother 5 years younger. One day he had saved his money to buy himself a pizza (he was a growing teenage boy) and when he wanted to eat it, they stole it, locked themselves with it in the bathroom, ate what they wanted, and licked the rest.

    And when I grew up we had cold cement floors, wooden toys and going to school was uphill both ways …. really (school was behind a hill about a mile away – so you always have to go uphill).

  244. YankeeGal says:

    #238 PCG – my friends who have 3 say going from 2 to 3 was easier than going from 1 to 2, because with the third you are usually expecting the worst!!

  245. Mike NJ says:

    245 YankeeGal,

    I went from 1 to 3 and let me tell you, it is no picnic!

  246. Mitchell says:

    #188 On of my wifes friends pulled that a stay at home mom jobs is worth 130K.

    I told her you know there are plenty of women who stay and home, take care of the kids, and as a bonus collect a welfare check to boot. The quality might not be as good but its a positive cash flow instead of a negative. Now what again do you do beyond that makes you worth 130K?

  247. Hehehe says:

    “kettle1 Says:
    April 24th, 2008 at 3:40 pm
    they call this a prediction,???
    so with a 55% margin of error, at what point does this become propoganda?

    The American economy is in a recession, which is projected to be short and mild, while oil will likely trade at $91 a barrel by the end of the year, though the range of that forecast is plus or minus $50, Standard & Poor’s said Thursday.”

    Same guy must be the guy handing out all the CDO/CMO ratings

  248. Orion says:

    Oh, I forgot. This is a real estate site.

  249. bairen says:

    #139 Twice shy,

    Thanks for the info. Too bad. That 3/1 in Westfield looks decent from the photos.

    Cranford is also on our list, but we don’t know much about it, other then it has a little downtown and is on the train line.

  250. njpatient says:

    229 yankee

    All of my little Patients are perfect.

  251. bairen says:

    #84 Mitchell,

    Those allergies are a concern. My sister lives in Round Rock and has developed either asthma or allergies shortly after she moved there. The doctors think thats from Round Rock having lots of limestone underneath it that trap water and cause underground mold.

    My son had a lot of respiratory infections while we lived in Sydney. We weren’t sure if it was from him being a premie or from Sydney being built on sandstone (sandstone traps water that grows mold too)

  252. gary says:

    “Yun offered a caution. “With elevated inflation, the Federal Reserve should be extra careful about further rate cuts,” he said. “Mortgage interest rates, which do not move directly with Fed funds rates, may rise measurably and hurt the housing recovery if inflation gets out of hand.”

    Lawrence Yun and Baghdad Bob… perfect together.

  253. Hehehe says:

    Microsoft Profit Falls 11%, Forecast Is Tempered (Update1)

    http://www.bloomberg.com/apps/news?pid=20601087&sid=aH.QqP3V8AIs&refer=home

    Naughty naughty. Should be a good episode of Fast Money, all four of them said Microsoft was a buy last night;)

  254. 3b says:

    #253 gary:hurt the housing recovery if inflation gets out of hand.”

    Recover? What recovery? Did I miss something?

  255. 3b says:

    Anybody ever hear of Matrix Unit Trust Sr-2 High Yield? They are either ETF’s or UIT’s I believe.

  256. Mitchell says:

    #252 Thats why I think its a good time for you to take a trip out there now when this stuff is at its peak. Find out if your going to have a similar problem now before you commit. Thats a long move.

    My one buddy loved Texas and was having the time of his life then his wife started having all these issues and within a year of Texas they moved to Florida. Boy Sean must really love her to move. Typical Jersey reaction. Nobody else I know has had any real transition troubles. My Atlanta friends love Texas much more than Atlanta.

    Strange every day I go into this site I see more people sound a little closer to moving to upstate NY or somewhere else realizing that the economics of NJ will never really fall in line with their income and when there is a minor glimmer of hope the NJ gov raises something or takes away something and that hope just fades away to rent, save, and work more. The tone of this site is changing from what it was a while ago. Some hard core NJ people are starting to say you know maybe its time for a change of scenery.

  257. Shore Guy says:

    I saw this notice on a listing we were considering for an oceanfront property in North Carolina: low 2 ft. erosion rate

    “low 2 ft. erosion rate” !!!?????? If two feet per year is low, the Outer Banks are in trouble.

  258. Sean says:

    Mitchell, upstate NY sucks. Taxes in places like Middletown and Monroe are just as high as
    towns in NJ.

    PA is a nightmare of a commute. Most of the “hard core” New Jersey residents will just suck it up as we always have.

  259. Shore Guy says:

    # 257

    It sounds like a germ of a Springsteen song.

  260. Shore Guy says:

    # 196 Sean,

    You get to have as many as TWO beers a week? Sweet!

  261. bairen says:

    #22 shore guy

    “Voters recently turned down a $24 million measure to re-build the beaches and hurricane season is less than a month away.”

    Talk about cutting off your nose to spite your face. Of course maybe they figure the Feds will bail them out if they get hit by a hurricane.

  262. bairen says:

    #259 Sean

    This life long jersey guy wants out. Was just looking at Tampa real estate online.

    I just need to move to a nice area that has a Whole Foods and a Paneras and if I can golf once a month year round I’ll be happy.

    I’ve looked at Portland Oregon, Seattle, San Jose, Boston, Charlotte, Charlottsevill VA, and some other areas and have come to the conclusion that there isn’t much difference materially among the suburbs. just different forms of entertainment.

  263. Shore Guy says:

    # 263 “maybe they figure the Feds will bail them out if they get hit by a hurricane”

    The federal govt rushing in to provide money to help people who made bad decisions and failed to plan for reasonably-anticipated adverse conditions? No? Never. It will never happen, because that would encourage risky behavior and prevent people from doing the prudent thing.

    Can you imagine such a thing ever being seriously considered by congress or a presidential candidate?

  264. bairen says:

    #265 Shore gu,

    Do I detect a bit of sarcasm?

    Does Gary have a new handle?

  265. Shore Guy says:

    263 “Voters recently turned down a $24 million measure to re-build the beaches and hurricane season is less than a month away.”

    For those NC residents who live away from the OBX I suppose they fail to see the wisdome of spending millions to support a lifestyle chosen by a few who choose to live or engage in speculative RE investment out there.

  266. Mitchell says:

    #259
    I had the opportunity to work in IT in StCroix once. I should have taken it when I was young and single. Job could have been just as bad or worse than any other but boy the time off to live there I would have made priceless. Yet I will pay good money today to visit there when I could have lived there. Had me thinking why don’t people live where they like to vacation? Especially if its possible to make enough to live in those places? I couldn’t see myself killing myself weekly to live in NJ any more.

    My Wife and I were going to do this had they ever gotten off the ground. Even if it were for only a couple of years. Since the one guy has a com cast e-mail account I don’t have much hope for it.
    http://www.freedomship.com/

    Jersey really is a great place it just no longer fell into being a good financial position and I was making over 150K.

    So Sean taking everything out of the equation where would you prefer to live if you could? No shame if you want to live and die in NJ. Again great state and great people just wasn’t for me any more.

  267. Shore Guy says:

    # 266 “sarcasm? ”

    Moi?

  268. Shore Guy says:

    Wisdom, even

  269. Mitchell says:

    #263 How about SeaBrite? I dont know how people look at a 20ft wall and never think that the ocean will get over it. Its not beach front its china wall front.

    Jersey Shore was great now its overrun by kids wanting to play fight club. There are a few good NJ beaches left but some of us older guys should have gone and whipped those punks arses before they made a mess of the shore.

  270. Sean says:

    re: (264) Barien – We can all dream can’t we? Sure moving sounds great, PA, NY, Florida, Cali, and heck toss in Texas if you want they all can be great places.

    Here is my take on your other places mentioned above.

    San Jose – way way overpriced, and if you like congestion and dry skin move there.

    Boston – as soon as your kids start chanting “Let’s go Red Sox” you will put the house up for sale.

    Portland – is nice if you like a cold wet climate and Meth.

    Seattle – need I say more?

    Charlotte – Mitchell will want you to hang out with you and introduce you the drive through Hooter’s style coffee joints.

    Charlottsevill Va, – Have you ever had the pleasure of participating in a civil war reenactment?

  271. Mitchell says:

    #263 I live here not for the Real Estate opportunities, low taxes, low insurance costs, toll less roads, but for the lifestyle of what was NJ some 20-30 years ago. Affordable housing is just a perk.

    I bet you know people who vacation to the outer banks. What’s wrong with wanting to live where people desire to vacation?

    Does anyone say they want to vacation to NJ?

    Influx of Florida, Georgia, South Carolina, and North Carolina residents crowding the beaches of NJ make you angry? Even New Yorkers go to Virginia Beach, Delaware or Maryland.

  272. gl says:

    Not exactly sure what an “HBO Event” is, but apparently its going to sell a house this weekend in Summit…

    No price, no pics, no address, but according to the ad, it is not to be missed.

    http://cnj.craigslist.org/rfs/651403530.html

  273. Mitchell says:

    #272
    A guy once said “You can be a car thief in Detroit or a Car thief in Miami. One has a better climate” He was describing why there are more criminals in Miami over detroit believe it or not but the same applies to life style. If you can take the same job somewhere else and make good money why would you live in a place like detroit?

    The idea is why kill yourself at a job you can do anywhere if you don’t love where you live.

    If your not a financial analyst working in downtown Manhattan then there are 49 other states you can live in. Yesterday someone was thinking Canada. Cant blame them.

  274. Sean says:

    re: (268) Mitchell all kidding aside if I move it will be Marin County in Cali. It is close enough to San Fran without the traffic. I would choose commuting via boat to the city. A few other positives would be close to good skiing and close to good vino. Population there is only about 250k and if I ever want to reenact the scenes from the Return of the Jedi the woods are only a short bike ride away.

  275. bairen says:

    #272 Sean

    I dislike San Jose big time. I do like San Fran but i doubt my family of 4 could afford to live there. Would be like commuting from Somerset County to NYC with earthquakes thrown in.

    I was on a tram in Portland and heard a bunch of college kids boasting about going to the Methadone clinics. Then the downtown area turned into gangland around 5:15 PM

    Have never participated in a civil war reenactment. If I did i would want to wear a NJ regiment uniform.

    Charlotte’s nice, but I’m concerned it will morph into a modern Piscataway/Edison.

    Tampa and Austin are possibilities. Spent 5 months in Tampa on an assignment. It was great getting out of work at 5 PM and hitting the golf course at 5:15.

  276. Everything's Hobroken says:

    ‘Marin County’

    Me too. The walk down from Mt Vision to Limantour lives in my memory with the baby grey whale playing near shore at the beach north of the Pt Reyes lighthouse.

  277. Shore Guy says:

    # 277 “baby grey whale playing near shore ”
    A very Hoboken moment :-)

  278. movinB says:

    #276 Sean –

    Hope you have lots of $ to spend if you want to move to Marin. At least 97% of the house prices make Upper Haughtyville, NJ, look like the Crackton deal of the century.

    Also, a tip: only transplants call it “San Fran” :)

  279. Sybarite says:

    279

    What do locals call it, Frisco? I mostly heard it referred to as “The City” when I was out in Pleasanton recently.

  280. movinB says:

    #280 Sybarite –

    No, not San Fran, and not Frisco. “The City” (I think NYC and SF are the probably the only two in the country that are referred to as such by their neighbors?) or SF in written form.

    And welcome to the wonderful world of Bay Area elitism, where we even correct how you refer to the place ;)

  281. NJCoast says:

    #268 Mitchell

    I lived on St. Thomas until I was ten and was happy to move up here. The islands become very small and confining. I used to love to come up to the states whenever I could. It’s not easy living down there, especially if you have to make a living or go to school. Some places should just be be for vacations. Now I enjoy going down there to visit relatives knowing that I can come home to civilization.

  282. Sybarite says:

    Email from local realtor

    “Good Afternoon.

    With the real estate market down, have you considered how it offers a great opportunity to “move up” because the values of higher-priced homes have come down more than yours has?

    I also wanted to say that although the market is slow, I’m still doing well. The reason? Integrity, experience, and I use all the latest high-tech tools to maximize a home’s market exposure. In addition, I’ve come to the conclusion that the best solution to a softer market is harder work.

    So if you’ve considered selling, or if you hear that any family, friends or neighbors are, please call or email me any time.

    Sincerely,”
    -Hungry Realtor

  283. alia says:

    47- mr oliver: yo! (next gtg at the beer garden? they re-open may 1st!)

    190- thanks. :) …i was startin’ to feel a wee bit defensive, between the slamming of the “nesting female” and the slamming of the stay at home mom…

  284. gary says:

    No matter how you describe it, no matter what angle or spin or mantra you come up with, nor the shade of lipstick you use can hide the fact that a pig is still a pig.

    Here is a bloated, out-of-shape, worn, drab and lifeless over-priced sh*tbox that will sit, expire, get re-listed and expire again. Eventually, this house, this project, will get sold. Some day….. but I can tell you most assuredly, that day will not come soon.

    http://www.realtor.com/realestate/north+caldwell+boro-nj-07006-1095230679/

  285. gary says:

    Sybarite,

    Send that realtor one 49 cent box of ramen noodles.

  286. Sybarite says:

    #285

    That kitchen is a joke.

  287. Pat says:

    The sensitivity (defensiveness?) is pretty reserved around here.

    But can you imagine if we picked up this blog and moved it to Alabama or SC?

  288. alia says:

    222 al/other new parents: best info i got when #1 was born: “it’s perfectly normal to want to throw the baby out the window when they’re screaming at 3 am. it’s just not normal to do it.” got me through (and is currently getting me through, #2 being almost 4 weeks old) some rough nights…

  289. Pat says:

    gary, until your post 285, I kept thinking this was the Weekend Open Thread and I had no work tomorrow.

  290. lisoosh says:

    Mitchell Says:
    April 24th, 2008 at 6:38 pm
    “Had me thinking why don’t people live where they like to vacation? ”

    Then they would turn into the places they left.

    My choice of places to move would probably be topped by Oregon. I grew up with a rainy temperate climate so that doesn’t bother me.

    Napa Valley would be nice, Marin would be nice, but of course you need big bucks for those areas. Beach towns between LA and SF would be pretty cool too.

    I’m definitely a West Coast kind of person.

  291. lisoosh says:

    Movin – Utilizing your extended family if you choose to have kids and keep working is definitely the way to go. If you have back up that can take kids on the odd days off, pick them up after school when you can’t, give you the night off etc., it would make all the difference in the world.

  292. lostinny says:

    285
    How’d they get the ceiling to match the floor?

  293. spam spam bacon spam says:

    Can someone get me info on GSMLS# 2476974

    The listing has all 9999999’s for just about every field.

    (talk about a hard working agent…)

  294. gary says:

    Pat,

    I understand, sort of like going to a boxing match and a hockey game breaks out.

  295. Pat says:

    http://www.examiner.com/a-1358636~Bush_administration_opposes_Democrats__housing_rescue_plan.html?cid=rss-Top_News

    The comments, in separate letters to lawmakers, were the most forceful rejection yet by the Bush administration of Democrats’ housing aid plans. And they were the clearest indication to date that the White House intends to put up a vigorous fight against a bill to let the Federal Housing Administration take on as much as $300 billion in new mortgages for financially strapped homeowners.

  296. spam spam bacon spam says:

    Gary,
    You know what’s sad? Those people are PROUD of their house.

    I had a wonderful friend who lived in Middletown. Her husband had left some time earlier and she had 2 kids in college. An old-style Italian woman, she had a taste for ornate.

    Her house was completely done in FOIL and BLACK VELVET wallpapers, RED and white wallpapers, RED shag carpeting, wrought iron railings, gold-framed mirrors, you name it. I cannot describe the window treatments. I’d need therapy.

    I felt like breaking out some acid and taking a trip when I walked in.

    But she saw it through her eyes and was so proud of her “space”. Would lovingly repair wallpaper tears, etc. Velvet couches covered in plastic, godawful wood table with gargoyle legs lovingly covered with custom made protector, etc…

    Her parents lived in the in-law suite in the house. They were just as nice. The mother, a tiny italian lady who was about 800 years old was named “Elvira”. I’ll never forget. :)

  297. gary says:

    spam spam bacon spam,

    Gaudy and ornate is fine if a person is into that type of thing, but even a trip from the crew of Extreme Makeover wouldn’t make that house worth that price.

  298. lisoosh says:

    Royal Bank of Scotland isn’t too popular at home these days:

    http://thescotsman.scotsman.com/latestnews/Shareholder-to-RBS-bosses-39You39re.4014473.jp

    Shareholder to RBS bosses: ‘You’re paid as superhumans, but you’re clearly not’

    An audience brimming with indignation that belied their advancing years accused directors of “unbelievably bad management”.

    Shareholder John Steen was more abrupt when he told the meeting he would like the board to reconsider its entire remuneration policy, saying they were paid salaries “above anything the rest of us can only dream of”.

    He went on: “You guys are paid as though you were superhuman, and it’s very clear that you’re not.”

  299. kettle1 says:

    from telegraph.co.uk

    Lehman warns that oil boom will deflate

    By Ambrose Evans-Pritchard
    Last Updated: 12:33am BST 24/04/2008

    and how many billions in write downs have these clowns had when they were supposed to be masters of the financial universe, but could see a drop in housing????

  300. kettle1 says:

    from telegraph.co.uk

    Lehman warns that oil boom will deflate

    By Ambrose Evans-Pritchard
    Last Updated: 12:33am BST 24/04/2008

    and how many billions in write downs have these clowns had when they were supposed to be masters of the financial universe, but couldnt see a drop in housing????

  301. kettle1 says:

    isnt the republican party sending these out to everyone now?

  302. kettle1 says:

    isnt the republican party sending these out to everyone now?
    http://wrongcards.com/ecard/remember-wear-a-vague-smile-all-times

  303. lostinny says:

    297
    Spam
    There are a lot of goths out there that might really want that house the way it is. :)

  304. Mitchell says:

    #276 Sean – Sanfran area is real nice. If I had the coin I would consider that as well. I was only out there for a little while with Lucent but I can understand the attraction to the area.

    #291 I hear Oregon is beutiful Got a friend who told me about it. Said he never would have guessed.

    #282 I should have done it for a few years. I was young and well Ive done dumber things in the past.

  305. Sean says:

    re: Marin and San Fran,

    movinB & Everything’s Hobroken

    I fell in love with the area when I met my wife, who grew up in Marin County. We try and go there at least once a year and have family and friends there. Sure the housing is expensive but if you have been following the real estate situation in that area the numbers are now not as daunting.

    Anything north of the city is now heavily discounted.

  306. 3b says:

    #285 gary: Yeah but it is sprawling. And the realtor says its elegant!!

  307. njpatient says:

    I had a lot to say today, but lisoosh was posting, which pretty much makes me superfluous.

  308. movinB says:

    #306 Sean –

    Heavily discounted, as in, there are starter SFHs up there for less than $500k? Within commute distance from SF?

    URLs pls… cuz if you’re right, I can’t imagine why more people aren’t moving up there in droves.

    Heavily discounted, I’d say, as in: “It used to be $1.2m, and now it’s $900k!”

    Whoopee, does a lot for first-time buyers.

  309. njpatient says:

    301 kettle

    Bang

    And anyone who can’t see that, a year from now, oil will be somewhere between $50 and $150 is a homegrown fool.

    (Also, plan for the DJIA to be somewhere between $500 and $36000. You can hold me too that).

  310. njpatient says:

    297 spam
    Sometime I’ll tell you ab out the house Mrs. Patient and I made an offer on in early 2007 that was entirely in leopard print.
    Leopard print light switch covers
    Leopard print frames on the family pictures hung from the wall.
    Leopard print duvet
    Leopard print wallpaper
    Leopard print shoes in the MB
    Leopard print Christmas ornaments on the WHITE plastic Christmas tree that was still up in February.

    Thank Jeebus that she was “insulted” by our offer. (So was our own agent, but that’s another story (but hello to any Burgdorfff agents reading this)).

  311. Everything's Hobroken says:

    RE Marin
    Just looked up on RealtyTrac. Lots of Lis Pendens and REOs from Sausalito up. Looks just a little better than here.

  312. njpatient says:

    253 gary
    “Lawrence Yun and Baghdad Bob… perfect together.”

    Maybe, but one of them has a far better record as a prognosticator.

  313. njpatient says:

    265 shore

    New category: sarcasm of the day?

  314. Laurie says:

    Re:280/Sybarite…Aaahhh..Cali…
    So how is the mkt in Pleasanton??? My bro and SIL sold their “Colonial” there a few years back and moved to a condo in downtown SF..the mkt was SO SO crazy that they were inundated with people who wanted to buy their house…we’re talking flowers, food, catering offered to them so they would sell them their crappy badly built 1968 3 bedroom for 800k….my sister lives in Marin…ahhh…so beautiful there..would love to visit there this summer but I think the airfare from NJ will be a killer (I want to take the kids too).
    OK OK…all you stay at home Mom haters..I have 5 kids…No one and i mean No one would trade places with me for anything in the world. The work never stops and the $ is always short…plus they get to a certain age and hate you…who said this was a good idea??? 5 kids in 10 years…oh…yes, I work part time…I did manage to find a job that works with my schedule…no, not RE!

  315. PGC says:

    #303 lisoosh

    I remember the same thing with British Gas. The chairman sat on stage while various OAPs stood up and lambasted him. He smiled politely at them but never responded. When it came to the vote of no confidence the Intsitutional block vote gave him a massive victory.

  316. PGC says:

    I lived in SF for a while. It has a bad homeless problem and a very bad black tar heroin problem. To paraphrase an earlier poster. Why be homeless in SF rather than homeless in NYC. The weather and the toruists are nicer. The police do a great job of managing the problem so the tourists never see it. The homeless and the addicts know that if they leave the tourists alone, the police will not crack down on them and the city will provide good programs.

    Marin is way over priced. The city is worse and at times makes NYC look cheap. But they did finally get the Air Train running. Getting the bus to “The Stick” was a pain but worth it. But watching the 9ers was like watching the Jets these days.

  317. John says:

    You guys are wimps when it comes to kids. I remember visiting one of my great grandparents houses and they had 12 kids in a one room house with no bathroom, heat, electricity, kitchen or running water. Now that was work. I think with kids, one kids is a big fat joke, two kids is pretty easy, three kids becomes a pain in the butt, four kids the complete insantity starts and at 5 kids it is out of control and you lean on the oldest ones to raise the youngest ones so once you hit 5 kids, whats the difference go for 6,7 or 8 you ain’t paying for school, parties nothing anyhow.

  318. Laurie says:

    The assumption that you make that the oldest kids will help with the younger ones is completely false. The only things my oldest know about kids is that they don’t want any…we’re not in some fundamentalist compound with wierd hairstyles, we’re in NNJ ….the older kids are all expected to have jobs by 17 and we do without a lot of extras…BTW..we pay for school, parties whatever…what makes you think we don’t?? We also did it without the help of family…what makes you think Granma and granpa want to watch young kids…it’s selfish of you to think you can dump the kiddos on granma so you can persue your career…what if Granma has a hip problem? What if Granma wants to do something else with her golden years besides taking care of kids No

  319. Laurie says:

    The assumption that you make that the oldest kids will help with the younger ones is completely false. The only things my oldest know about kids is that they don’t want any…we’re not in some fundamentalist compound with wierd hairstyles, we’re in NNJ ….the older kids are all expected to have jobs by 17 and we do without a lot of extras…BTW..we pay for school, parties whatever…what makes you think we don’t?? We also did it without the help of family…what makes you think Granma and granpa want to watch young kids…it’s selfish of you to think you can dump the kiddos on granma so you can persue your career…what if Granma has a hip problem? What if Granma wants to do something else with her golden years besides taking care of kids No

  320. Laurie says:

    Sorry for the double posts

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