Wed 30 Apr 2008
From Bloomberg:
Economy in U.S. Probably Expanded at Slowest Pace in Five Years
The U.S. economy probably grew in the first quarter at the slowest pace in five years as consumer and business spending faltered and the housing slump deepened, economists said before a government report today.
A 0.5 percent annual pace of growth from January through March, the smallest gain since the last three months of 2002, is the median estimate of 80 economists surveyed by Bloomberg News.
“I’d probably call it a recession,” said Joshua Shapiro, chief U.S. economist at Maria Fiorini Ramirez Inc. in New York. “It’s a pretty bad environment that is unlikely to get better any time soon. The consumer is on very shaky footing.”
Spending by households, the biggest part of the economy, probably grew last quarter at the slowest pace in 13 years as job losses mounted, food and fuel prices surged and property values tumbled. Federal Reserve policy makers are forecast to cut the benchmark interest rate today to limit the downturn.
The Commerce Department’s report on gross domestic product, the volume of all goods and services produced, is due at 8:30 a.m. in Washington. The economy grew at a 0.6 percent pace in the last three months of 2007.
From the AP:
Fed expected to cut key interest rates one more time
The Federal Reserve, which began the year aggressively fighting a severe credit crunch and economic weakness, may push the pause button after delivering perhaps one more quarter-point cut in interest rates.
Fed Chairman Ben Bernanke and his colleagues were to wrap up a two-day meeting Wednesday and financial markets widely expected that the discussions will end with an announcement that the Fed will cut a key interest rate by a quarter-point.
That would be the seventh reduction in the federal funds rate since the central bank began battling against the credit squeeze and the growing possibility of a recession last September.
The Fed delivered two three-quarter-point moves and one half-point cut over an eight-week period from mid-January to mid-March that represented the central bank’s most aggressive rate cuts in a quarter-century.
However, the central bank is expected to respond with a less aggressive quarter-point move at this meeting, in part because the financial turmoil seems to have eased and because there are growing concerns about inflation.
While there is some thought that the Fed might decide to forgo a rate cut, most analysts believe that the greater likelihood is a quarter-point move.
April 30th, 2008 at 6:10 am
From the WSJ:
Delinquency Rate
Growing More Slowly
By SERENA NG
April 30, 2008
The subprime-mortgage market still is getting worse each month, but there are some indications that the massive problem of borrowers falling behind on their loans may be moderating.
Data provided recently to holders of securities backed by subprime mortgages showed that the number of borrowers who were delinquent on their home loans rose at a slower pace in April than in March. It was the third month in a row in which mortgages went bad at a slower rate. The data come from so-called “remittance reports” that are distributed monthly by trustees of mortgage-backed securities tracked by the widely followed ABX indexes.
Among pools of subprime mortgages made in the second half of 2005, the proportion of loans that were more than 60 days delinquent rose by 1.23 percentage points in April to 35.9%. That compared with a 1.61-percentage-point increase in March, a 2.36-point increase in February and a 2.64-point rise in January, according to a report from Wachovia Capital Markets. The report said similar trends were observed in April for loans made in 2006 and the first half of 2007. On average, between 25% and 40% of the subprime loans in these groups are more than 60 days delinquent.
While it is hard to predict when the subprime market will hit bottom, some analysts think the recent data indicate that some sort of stabilization is under way.
…
But many market participants remain skeptical or bearish about the outlook for subprime. Richard Parkus, an analyst at Deutsche Bank Securities, says the recent remittance data showed “no clear evidence of any recovery,” and his firm continues to expect extraordinarily high levels of losses among subprime loans.
Skeptics also say that with home prices falling and unemployment rising, delinquencies will keep climbing. There is also a possibility that the recent delinquency data might have been influenced by seasonal factors, such as individuals using recent tax refunds to become current on their mortgage payments.
April 30th, 2008 at 6:17 am
NY Times article,
The Road to a Jumbo Mortgage Was Supposed to Get Easier
In early February, Congress gave beleaguered mortgage borrowers a rare cause for celebration. As part of the economic stimulus package, it passed rules intended to make it easier and less expensive for people to take out hefty loans in the nation’s costliest housing markets.
Instead, the effort to make it easier to get jumbo mortgages — loans over $417,000 — has yielded frustration and disillusionment.
The program “is so much of a failure that it’s really unbelievable,” said Daniel M. Shlufman, president of the FCMC Mortgage Corporation in Clifton, N.J. Mr. Shlufman likened Congress’s effort to “coming up with a vaccine to a terrible disease, and then not giving it to people, or making it too expensive.”
Members of the financial services community, including executives of major banks, investors and mortgage lenders, have said there are good reasons that rates are not dropping and more new-style jumbo loans are not being written. They say that jumbo rates — even “conforming” ones — are unlikely to fall completely in line with conforming rates.
An influential trade group of the nation’s largest financial institutions, the Securities Industry and Financial Markets Association, recently made a key decision that some critics say has kept those rates from dropping. The association decided that loans above $417,000 — even those jumbo loans now considered by law as conforming — would not be eligible to participate in the “to be announced” market.
“I’ve been a little disappointed by the securitization people,” Representative Frank said. “What I’m told when I complain is that they have to iron out some wrinkles. It’s taken them longer to take advantage of this than I expected.”
April 30th, 2008 at 6:20 am
Philadelphia area’s foreclosure rate drops 30%
The Philadelphia region’s first-quarter foreclosure rate fell almost 30 percent from the same period a year earlier, bucking a national trend that saw filings rise to one in every 194 U.S. households.
The rate puts Philadelphia 82d on a list of 100 metropolitan areas compiled by RealtyTrac Inc., the Irvine, Calif., firm that tracks foreclosures nationwide.
Included in the top 10 metro areas for foreclosure filings were six cities in California, as well as Las Vegas, Detroit, Phoenix and Fort Lauderdale, Fla.
Stockton, Calif., in the central part of the state, led the list with 7,560 filings, or one household in 30, an increase of almost 292 percent from January-to-March 2007.
The more-populous eight-county Philadelphia region had 3,064 filings, or one household in 527, a decline of 29.64 percent, RealtyTrac’s data show.
Nationally, there were 649,917 filings in the first quarter, an increase of 112 percent over January-to-March 2007, RealtyTrac reported.
April 30th, 2008 at 6:22 am
N.J. foreclosure filings rank 16th-highest in nation
BY SAM ALI
Star-Ledger Staff
The onslaught of homes facing foreclosures has yet to ebb, a research report showed yesterday, with bank repossessions skyrocketing in the first quarter of 2008.
“Foreclosure activity in the first quarter increased on a year-over-year basis in 46 out of the 50 states and in 90 of the nation’s 100 largest metro areas, demonstrating that most regions of the country are seeing more foreclosures,” said James Saccacio, chief executive of RealtyTrac, a California firm that tracks foreclosures.
Nationally, the number of U.S. homes receiving at least one foreclosure filing jumped 112 percent during the first quarter, to 649,917, compared with 306,722 properties in the first quarter of 2007. Filings include default notices, auction sale notices and bank repossessions. The overall foreclosure rate is 23 percent higher than the previous quarter.
That means one in every 194 households received a foreclosure filing during the first quarter, as declining home prices and stricter lending requirements continued to worsen the foreclosure environment.
New Jersey had the nation’s 16th-highest state foreclosure rate during the first quarter, with one in every 265 households receiving a foreclosure filing, according to RealtyTrac. Foreclosure filings were reported on 13,104 New Jersey properties during the quarter, up 66 percent from the first quarter of 2007 and nearly 34 percent from the previous quarter.
April 30th, 2008 at 6:27 am
U.S. Foreclosure Filings Double in First Quarter, Led by Nevada
The median U.S. home price may drop by a record 5.8 percent this year, Fannie Mae, the world’s largest mortgage buyer, said April 7. Congress, the Bush administration and regulators have urged lenders to renegotiate terms for borrowers so they can stay in their homes, easing the glut of empty houses. Such efforts may mask the slump’s extent by delaying foreclosures, RealtyTrac Chief Executive Officer James Saccacio said in the statement.
“This country needs a cleansing,” billionaire real estate investor Sam Zell, chairman of Equity Group Investments LLC, said yesterday at the Milken Institute Global Conference in Los Angeles. “We need to clean out all those people who never should have bought in the first place, and not give them sympathy.”
About $460 billion of adjustable-rate loans are scheduled to reset this year, according to New York-based analysts at Citigroup Inc.
A surge in defaults among subprime borrowers spurred the collapse of the U.S. home loan market last year and caused more than $300 billion in writedowns and losses at banks and securities firms around the globe. More than 100 mortgage companies have stopped lending, closed, or sold themselves.
U.S. sales of existing homes probably will tumble to an 11- year low of 4.68 million this year, Fannie Mae, the world’s largest mortgage buyer, said in an April 7 forecast. Sales should climb to 4.91 million next year, the Washington-based company said.
April 30th, 2008 at 6:29 am
Another Star Ledger article,
Mortgage payments in trouble
April 30th, 2008 at 6:35 am
Defaults Rising Rapidly
For ‘Pick-a-Pay’ Option Mortgages
By RUTH SIMON
April 30, 2008
As the growth in subprime mortgage delinquencies appears to be slowing, lenders are seeing a rapid rise in defaults on a type of mortgage that gives consumers with good credit several different monthly-payment options.
These mortgages, which are sometimes known as “pick-a-pay” or payment-option mortgages but are generically called option adjustable-rate mortgages, are turning out, in some cases, to be even more caustic than subprime loans, in part because the loan balance and the monthly payments on some loans is growing even as home prices are falling.
On Tuesday, Countrywide Financial Corp. said that 9.4% of the option ARMs in its bank portfolio were at least 90 days past due, up from 5.7% at the end of December and 1% a year earlier.
Washington Mutual Inc. reported earlier this month that option ARMs account for 50% of prime loans in its bank portfolio, but 70% of prime nonperforming loans. At Wachovia Corp., non-performing assets in the company’s option ARM portfolio, which was acquired with the company’s purchase of Golden West Financial Corp., climbed to $4.6 billion in the first quarter from $924 million a year earlier.
Nationwide, delinquencies on subprime loans — at about 28% as of February, according to First American CoreLogic — remain much higher than for option ARMs. But recent reports from mortgage securitizations suggest that subprime delinquencies have started going bad at a lower rate while delinquencies on option ARMs are speeding up.
Many borrowers now say they didn’t understand the features of the loan. For example, borrowers who make the minimum payment on a regular basis can see their loan balance grow and their monthly payment more than double when they begin making payments of principal and full interest. This typically happens after five years, but can occur earlier if the amount owed reaches a predetermined level — typically 110% to 125% of the original loan balance.
Some borrowers say they weren’t suited for these loans or that the terms were poorly disclosed. Edward Marini, a 63-year-old disabled Vietnam veteran, took out a $280,000 option ARM from Countrywide Financial when he refinanced the mortgage on his 2,000-square-foot home in Little Egg Harbor, N.J., in 2005, pulling out cash to pay off some debts. “The way I understood it was that I would have a really low payment for five years,” says Mr. Marini.
Mr. Marini recently received a note from Countrywide that his payment, now about $1,300 a month, would jump to about $3,800 next year, well above his $3,250 a month in disability payments. Mr. Marini, who owes more than his home is worth, says he was turned down by Countrywide for a refinance and, more recently, for a loan modification. “I didn’t think they would even pull this kind of stuff on someone who is on a fixed income,” he says.
Whoa, Subprime is old news baby, Option Arm. CNBC talking heads better learn the terms and what they mean.
April 30th, 2008 at 6:39 am
Down economy gives rise to new-age price hagglers
By Matt Richtel THE NEW YORK TIMES
You can negotiate, but you have to do your research. When I’m bargaining, I’m bargaining with information.
David Achee,
SAVVY SHOPPER
SAN FRANCISCO— Shoppers are discovering an upside to the down economy. They are getting price breaks by reviving an age-old retail strategy: haggling.
A bargaining culture once confined largely to car showrooms and jewelry stores is taking root in major stores such as Best Buy, Circuit City and Home Depot, as well as mom-and-pop operations
Michael Roskell, 33, a technology project manager from Jersey City, N.J., said he and a friend from high school periodically visit electronics stores. While Roskell expresses interest in buying an item, his friend acts as though he is dissatisfied with the price and threatens to leave.
“We play good cop, bad cop,” Roskell said.
In February, he said, the friends got $20 off a pair of $250 speakers at 6th Avenue Electronics in the New York area. Earlier, he and the same friend negotiated to buy two 46-inch high-definition Sony televisions at P.C. Richard & Son, a New York-area electronics chain.
List price: $4,300. Price after negotiation: $3,305.50.
In fact, Last month, I bargained with PC Richard sales guy and got Refridgerator priced at $550 down to $400, and Microwave Oven from $200 to $130. Bargain Hard.
April 30th, 2008 at 6:42 am
WSJ Article,
The Brighter Side of Housing
And now for the heartwarming side of the housing bust: It’s helping some people buy homes that they couldn’t afford a couple of years ago.
April 30th, 2008 at 6:43 am
Employment outlook for New York changed to “Very Weak”.
http://s.wsj.net/public/resources/documents/retro-HAGERTY.html
April 30th, 2008 at 6:45 am
Rising wheat prices mean expensive local slices
Here in Hoboken, pizza - that time-honored staple - is sometimes regarded as a major food group.
So the recent news that the price of wheat has tripled over a year, and that grain prices rose 25 percent in February, has many restaurant owners raising prices to make ends meet. Consumers are also wondering how far they’ll have to dig into their pockets to feed their friends and family.
Perhaps nowhere is the impact of rising prices felt more than in stores that are dependent on wheat, like pizzerias and bread shops.
A recent survey found that some pizzerias around Hudson County are charging $2 or more for a plain slice, and at least three pizza shops in Hoboken said they now charge $3 for a plain slice.
April 30th, 2008 at 6:49 am
‘the number of borrowers who were delinquent on their home loans rose at a slower pace in April than in March. It was the third month in a row in which mortgages went bad at a slower rate. The data ‘
Decreasing rate of increase fallacy?
April 30th, 2008 at 6:50 am
Here you go Grim.
The Usual News: Home Price Data Remains Grim
http://seekingalpha.com/article/74630-the-usual-news-home-price-data-remains-grim
April 30th, 2008 at 6:50 am
View from experts at CNBC
Moving Up? Luxury Homes Going at Cut-Rate Prices
Though prices in many regions are still heading lower, luxury home prices in some areas appear to have hit bottom and are starting to rebound.
“If you’re moving up, it’s a bonanza,” says Ken Baris, president of Jordan Baris Realtors in West Orange, N.J. “The people that end up buying in this period will be seen in 15 years as the geniuses because they’re going to be the ones getting the great buys.”
“The reality is you want to be very aggressive in trying to find the deals out there and not wasting your time with sellers that are not willing to compromise,” he says. “You can find deals in this market.”
“The smartest thing a seller can do right now is get a very accurate evaluation of what the true current market value is and price it right there,” Baris says. “I have scores of examples when properties are priced right in this market, the properties sell like a shot. The sellers that want to test the market do not have a great experience.”
I don’t know what cool-aid this guy is drinking.
Baris compares the current real estate conditions to the late 1980s, when property values were just beginning a major surge and interest rates were in the 14 percent to 16 percent range. Those who entered the market then were able to refinance their mortgages a few years later when rates plunged, and got more house for less money.
“Now we have that same opportunity for somebody to go to a neighborhood that had been a million-dollar neighborhood, buy a house, and in five years it’s going to be a million-dollar neighborhood again,” he says.
In fact, he warns that those looking to sell their homes and downsize ought to wait a few years as the value of their homes increase. A home worth more generally will appreciate proportionately higher than a home of lesser value in the same area.
“I think this is probably the best time to buy,” Evans says. “With this amount of talent focused on the issue and the public focused on the issue and the clamor for the elected officials to be held accountable for their actions, I think you’re going to see the market go up soon. If you don’t buy now, you’re going to be buying after the market picks up.”
April 30th, 2008 at 6:51 am
From The Record:
Region’s home prices off 6.6%
Home prices in the New York metro area, which includes North Jersey, dropped 6.6 percent over the 12 months ended in February, the Standard & Poor’s Case-Shiller Index reported Tuesday.
The region’s prices held up significantly better than average prices in the 20 metropolitan areas tracked by the index, which posted a record 12.7 percent drop.
…
New York metro prices are about 8 percent below the peak recorded in June 2006. The Case-Shiller Index does not give actual prices.
…
In another recent report, Otteau Valuation Group Inc. of East Brunswick, which tracks the real estate market statewide, reported that the volume of home sales in the state dropped 27 percent from March 2007 to March 2008.
“The clear signal is that the housing market has further to fall,” the report said.
…
In Bergen County, Otteau reported that there are more than 6,000 homes for sale, double the 2,900 that were on the market in 2005. In Passaic, there are more than 2,200 homes on the market, double the inventory in 2005.
At the current pace of sales, it would take about 11 months to sell all the homes on the market in Bergen and Passaic counties, up from three to four months in 2005.
The Otteau report predicted that the spring season, traditionally the busiest time for home sales, will see only a modest increase in sales activity. And it said that North Jersey, in particular, might be hurt by job cuts predicted on Wall Street.
April 30th, 2008 at 7:00 am
Here are a few of the titles from my reading this morn. You can use the link in 13 to read all. “Grim” is the word of the day,
year, decade?
Can’t Keep Home Prices from Falling
No Sign of Bottom in Existing US Home Sale Prices
From Housing to Employment: We’re in Big Trouble
Still No Light at the End of the Housing Tunnel
Higher Property Taxes Could Accelerate Downturn - Housing Tracker
April 30th, 2008 at 7:04 am
From MarketWatch:
Mortgage applications fell 11.1% last week: MBA
Despite a modest drop in interest rates, the volume of mortgage applications filed last week fell a seasonally adjusted 11.1% compared with the previous week, the Mortgage Bankers Association reported Wednesday.
Application volume for the week ended April 25 was down an unadjusted 14.2% against the same week in 2007.
Refinance applications decreased 16.7% on a week-to-week basis, while applications filed for mortgages to buy homes were down a seasonally adjusted 4.8%.
The four-week moving average for all mortgages as tracked by the Washington-based MBA was down 4.3%.
April 30th, 2008 at 7:07 am
SG,
Regarding the Philly foreclosures piece, this is the operative paragraph:
James Saccacio, the company’s chief executive officer, said that “unusual, nonmarket factors” might be the reason for the drop in this region, citing the city’s April moratorium on foreclosure sales and a program, approved in March, to delay foreclosure proceedings on owner-occupied properties until the owners have met face-to-face with lenders to attempt a loan-workout plan.
April 30th, 2008 at 7:08 am
#15 grim,
Is there any depth to that data?
I’m wondering if capes, ranches, and small colonials are sitting while the nicer stuff has dropped more then 6.6%.
The asking prices for our townhouse in Somerset hills is down 20% YOY. I see lots of houses between Basking Ridge and New Providence listing for 15% less then last year. I think Shiller’s data is too conservative or skewed by Manhattan.
April 30th, 2008 at 7:11 am
I’m wondering if capes, ranches, and small colonials are sitting while the nicer stuff has dropped more then 6.6%.
There is, it’s in the tiered price index data, I’m working on it now. It’ll be posted up later in the day.
Very interesting, it seems that according to S&P Case Shiller, the weakness is on the low-end of the market, not the $500k+ range.
Unfortunately, since the top tier starts with a $500k lower bound, it’s likely that we see at least some sort of top-coding problem develop here.
April 30th, 2008 at 7:13 am
The tiered index very clearly illustrates the fact that the bulk of the boom was concentrated in the lower-end of the market. The higher end didn’t see nearly as big a run up. Likewise, it’s that low end that is now showing the sharper decline.
April 30th, 2008 at 7:15 am
#20 Thank Grim,
I am really only watching housing below 600k.
I’m definitely seeing big listing price drops YOY.
April 30th, 2008 at 7:18 am
We are thinking about moving to Cranford in the fall if we stay in NJ. Are there any sections to avoid like a “Slummit” in Summit or flood zones?
April 30th, 2008 at 7:23 am
I know it seems odd, but there appear to be some significant pockets of weakness centered around some very specific price ranges. Of course, this is based entirely on anecdotal information and my own MLS peeping, so weigh it at what it’s worth.
If I had to put a number, $700k +-$100k seems to be a very weak area. This range is clearly out of reach of the first time buyers, and is squarely move-up territory. However, the move up into this territory seems to be coming from the weakest part of the market.
All it takes is a simple comparison of what is available in the $500k range with what is available in the $600-700k range. To me, it seems, you get significantly more for your money if you push up into this sweet spot.
Likewise, there is another “sweet spot” in the $1m new construction range, but for very different reasons.
This does jive with the S&P Case Shiller tier data. It is entirely possible that these mid-tier homes didn’t appreciate as much as the lower-tier homes, so in comparison, the lower-tier homes seem much more overpriced. That gap was narrowed tremendously, not that either are cheap.
April 30th, 2008 at 7:25 am
From Bloomberg:
GM Posts $3.25 Billion Loss on North America Deficit
General Motors Corp., the world’s largest automaker, reported a first-quarter loss of $3.25 billion after a year-earlier profit because of mortgage losses at a finance unit and plant shutdowns caused by a supplier strike.
April 30th, 2008 at 7:27 am
#24
My wife loves to point these out to me. She’ll come across a listing priced at $500k, and another around $700k (not that I would consider either). The first listing is a complete wreck of a cape, on a bad piece of property, and the second is a nicely kept, larger, center hall on a nice piece of property. It would be impossible to buy the $500k property, knock down the house, and build a house similar to the $700k property for the same cost. Even if you purchased the lower price property and upgraded the kitchen and baths, you’d bring your net closer to $600k, and not gain a larger home, or better property. Even worse, you put that upgrade capital at risk of loss due to overimprovement.
If you are forced to buy, maybe buying up is the smart arb play? If the bottom doesn’t fall out, maybe the spread will widen in your favor. If the bottom does fall out, at least you can attempt to ride it out in a house you can stay in long-term. Unfortunately, who can afford to at these prices?
April 30th, 2008 at 7:38 am
#26 grim
Who can afford these prices? And when I look at the data on Realtor.com it’s mind boggling. Median prices are 6 to 10 times median income. What’s really bizarre is that median houses are 6 to 10 times median net worth.
Have so many people from Chatham to Basking Ridge become wealth destroyers instead of wealth builders? It looks like many people save very little and are basically living paycheck to paycheck.
April 30th, 2008 at 7:43 am
Grim (21) - That is what I was attempting to address the other day with the whole “neighborhood” phenomenon. It is the first-time buyer areas that were overbuilt here in my neck of the woods and sold to the very folks who never had the income and took out the funky loans.
There has been very little turnover in the more “established” neighborhoods where the buyers bought pre 2000, had the income and took out conventional fixed loans. As long as they didn’t HELOC themselves into oblivion..and evidently they didn’t - there are few sales if any. Those folks are just sitting tight. The price drop doesn’t really “mean” anything to them…they aren’t moving… May not until the kids sell the place 20 years from now.
That is probably also why cities such as Tracy and Stockton - huge expansion of lower-end housing during that period - got hit so hard. Those homes were filled with poorly qualified buyers at the height of the market taking out unconventional loans.
It is purely anecdotal on my end - I have not charts etc.
April 30th, 2008 at 7:49 am
From Bloomberg:
CDOs Face Downgrades as Losses Prompt Fitch Overhaul
The market for collateralized debt obligations faces more downgrades as losses on mortgage-backed securities prompt Fitch Ratings to overhaul the way it assesses the risk of CDOs based on company debt.
Fitch will begin next month to affirm or assign new ratings for about 500 CDOs, the New York-based company said in a statement today.
“While Fitch expects many ratings to be affirmed, downgrades are also expected, in some cases by several rating notches,” Fitch said in the statement.
April 30th, 2008 at 7:53 am
Decreasing rate of increase fallacy?
Most certainly, a useful device.
It is very easy to word it in such a way that causes the reader to confuse the second derivative with the first. Heck, even when it isn’t intentional, it is easily misunderstood.
The rate of change is easy, but the rate of change in the rate of change?
April 30th, 2008 at 7:57 am
Grim,
$700k+ houses..that is what I would have had to pay to move from my 3 bedroom ranch in CG to a CH or even split 4bdr, say in NC. After closing costs, moving costs and fixing up the “new” house, I decided to add the 4th bdr on to my curreny..and get exactly what we want ….smart move?, I doubt it, but we’ll stay here for another 8-10 years.
April 30th, 2008 at 8:09 am
#23 bairen Says:
April 30th, 2008 at 7:18 am
We are thinking about moving to Cranford in the fall if we stay in NJ. Are there any sections to avoid like a “Slummit” in Summit or flood zones?
bairen,
Avoid the NE quadrant in the vicinity of Riverside Drive. Major flood zone. Otherwise, the town is stable and unpretentious.
April 30th, 2008 at 8:17 am
Remember when I was talking about Repos a few days ago, well the news last night had a big story on the huge amount of repos in New Jersey. This guy owns a repo business and is making tons of money and has yards full of them getting waiting to get auctioned off. Well the owner tells him I am about to Repo a celebs car do you want to come with me? Can’t tell you name till we get there, report goes sure goes with camera crew and they go to hook a 300K rolls/bentley that little kim the rapper is six months behind, little kim comes out and see the camera crew and starts yelling F you and F that, it was priceless to see little Kim on the steps of her mansion getting her rolls repo’d.
April 30th, 2008 at 8:19 am
‘Most certainly, a useful device.
‘
An example:
price of an item increases from $1 by .50 a year forever.
First year rate of increase is 50%, year 2 only 25%. Cut by half! Such wonderful news!
April 30th, 2008 at 8:21 am
Oops. 33
April 30th, 2008 at 8:21 am
http://www.bloomberg.com/apps/news?pid=20601093&sid=axeUPXHfnG8U&refer=home
Hampton homes falling, I said it a year ago when hampton homes start to drop we are begining to enter the real fall in home prices, next up NYC. You need the last two areas where people believe it can’t happen here to fall to get the death spiral going.
April 30th, 2008 at 8:22 am
#32 twice shy
Thanks for the info. In a few weeks we are going to start going to the downtown and hitting some open houses. I doubt we will buy till next year. I’d rather live in the town for 6 months or so first to see if we like it.
April 30th, 2008 at 8:30 am
“Soaring global food prices and reluctant donors are pushing North Korea back towards famine, which could see the secretive government turn even more repressive to keep control, a paper released on Wednesday said.”
“The country is in its most precarious situation since the end of the famine a decade ago,” said the paper from the Washington-based Peterson Institute for International Economics.”
http://news.yahoo.com/s/nm/20080430/wl_nm/food_korea_north_dc
April 30th, 2008 at 8:36 am
From MarketWatch:
U.S. Q1 GDP rises 0.6% vs. 0.2% expected
U.S. Q1 final domestic sales fall 0.4%, 1st drop in 17 years
U.S. Q1 core inflation rises 2.2%; up 2.0% in past year
U.S. Q1 consumer spending up 1.0%, weakest in 7 years
U.S. Q1 business investment falls 2.5%, weakest in 4 years
U.S. Q1 residential investment down 26.7%, worst in 26 years
U.S. Q1 growth due to inventories, consumers, exports
April 30th, 2008 at 8:38 am
Inventory growth isn’t anything to be happy about..
From Bloomberg:
U.S. Economy Grew at 0.6% Pace in First Quarter on Inventories
The U.S. economy expanded at a 0.6 percent annual pace last quarter, reflecting an increase in inventories as consumer spending slowed, investment dropped and the housing slump deepened.
The gain in gross domestic product, the sum of all goods and services produced, was more than forecast and matched the pace of growth in the previous three months, the Commerce Department reported today in Washington. The last time the economy grew less was in the fourth quarter of 2002.
Spending by households, the biggest part of the economy, grew last quarter at the slowest pace since 2001, when the U.S. was in a recession, as job losses mounted, food and fuel prices surged and property values tumbled. Federal Reserve policy makers are forecast to cut the benchmark interest rate today to limit the downturn.
“The economy is struggling, it’s not going anywhere fast,” Mark Zandi, chief economist at Moody’s Economy.com in West Chester, Pennsylvania, said before the report. “The fundamental problem is the declines in home values and resulting impact on the financial system that’s weighing sharply on the consumer.”
The economy would have contracted last quarter if not for an increase in inventories that was probably caused by the slowdown in sales.
April 30th, 2008 at 8:45 am
This bull market never dies in Hudson County;
“Mayor and His Wife Are Guilty in Federal Extortion Case in New Jersey”
http://www.nytimes.com/2008/04/30/nyregion/30mayor.html
April 30th, 2008 at 8:46 am
Another bull market, Christopher Christie. Still undefeated.
April 30th, 2008 at 8:47 am
Back when I was the emissary of Grand Fenwick, I was scouting out a property for the embassy on US soil after that unfortunate Q bomb incident involving my friends …
Nah I can’t sound as pompous as him, I tried and failed. :)
April 30th, 2008 at 8:53 am
grim,
Can you give me a status on 121 Greenbrook Road, North Caldwell?
Thanks.
April 30th, 2008 at 8:53 am
Grim - I am not sure about your observation of weakness at low end of market. When I look at home sales with in last 3 month in central NJ towns, I see significant more volume for houses below $500K compared above $500K houses. Granted number of middle class houses are more in number than higher end ones. But at the least, lower priced homes are selling, while houses in higher bracket are just sitting on MLS forever.
The biggest trouble in comparing statistics is there is no way to quantify quality and location of the house. Doing range based analysis is wrong in itself as prices have moved so much (at least 10% to 25% with in 2 years), using that as range gives misleading statistic. The example you mentioned where $700K house looks much better than $500K, does not give any adjustment to location.
April 30th, 2008 at 8:57 am
If the government can report Inflation ex. Inflation, and Unemployment ex. Unemployment, I can at least talk about GDP ex. Private Inventories.
Which was squarely in recession territory at a negative 0.2%.
Inventory growth added 0.81% to the GDP, pushing up to 0.6%. Given the decline in consumer spending and a looming recession, both nationally and internationally, inventory growth isn’t a good sign. Inventory adjustment cycle? Fat inventories + Fewer Sales = More Layoffs + Lower Production.
April 30th, 2008 at 8:59 am
#21 grim: How would we break that information down price wise? Just curious, is it the 350 to 650K range where the inflation took place.
And lets say the 650 to 1 million and over was less inflated?
Because one could argue too that there have been many listings out there asking 1 million and over, and those asking prices were just as inflated
April 30th, 2008 at 9:02 am
bairen (19),
Is there any depth to that data?
I’m wondering if capes, ranches, and small colonials are sitting while the nicer stuff has dropped more then 6.6%.
The asking prices for our townhouse in Somerset hills is down 20% YOY. I see lots of houses between Basking Ridge and New Providence listing for 15% less then last year. I think Shiller’s data is too conservative or skewed by Manhattan.
First of all, it’s unlikely to be skewed by manhattan, since CS doesn’t include condos (or co-ops probably).
Anyway, I was wondering the same thing. I’m hearing reports of huge (50%) drops in other areas of the country that don’t seem to mirror the CS data. My thinking was maybe since CS is based on repeat sales, they aren’t getting a lot of sales yet from the peak of the market.
April 30th, 2008 at 9:03 am
3b,
The tiered index brackets aren’t defined in a way that would make them an ideal tool for this area.
Low Tier - Under $344,998
Mid Tier - $344,998 to $500,674
High Tier - Over $500,674
Like I said, we’re going to see a top coding problem in this area. A large number of the sales we’re interested are going to be in the high tier, and we have no way to peek into that. Unfortunately, the $505,000 POS Cape gets lumped in with the $15,000,000 Alpine Faux Chateau.
April 30th, 2008 at 9:09 am
This is what the mfg corp elite have based their cost savings on:
Thousands of children are being sold “like cabbages” to China’s booming factories as virtual slave labor.
Young people, some younger than 10, are said to have been discovered being bought and sold at a street market in one of rural China’s most overpopulated provinces, Sichuan.
According to investigative reporters, the children stood in line as they were assessed like cattle, before being driven to factories in China’s manufacturing heartland, the Pearl River Delta.
A newspaper based in the delta, Southern Metropolis Daily, suggested that abuses remain rampant in factories despite efforts by campaigners within China and abroad.
The abuses might have become worse as wages have finally begun to rise in recent years, prompting businesses to seek new ways to cut costs.
The newspaper was tipped off by residents living close to the street market. One local man said he had watched children being “sold like cabbages.”
One reporter, posing as a clothing factory manager, was allowed to inspect would-be “employees” by patting their arms and stomachs. He agreed to pay them three and a half yuan an hour — about 50 cents.
Many had fake papers saying they were older than 18; but, when asked, most said they were between 13 and 15. One was just 7, another 9.
The newspaper said many came from the same area of Sichuan, Liangshan County, where 76 children have been reported as missing since the Chinese New Year in February.
One of the most disturbing findings was that local officials seemed to be complicit. A foreman, who produced officially stamped documents concerning the children, said: “We have the complete right to manage them, by any means. You only need to sign a work agreement with us.”
The newspaper was told stories of hundreds of children being sent to electronics and toy factories across southern China.
Southern Metropolis Daily is part of the most adventurous newspaper group in China. Although run by the local government, it is encouraged to make money and breaks genuine stories to do so. Its staff have paid the price in the past, with a number of employees jailed on dubious bribery charges.
On this occasion, some of the allegations have been confirmed by the government’s central mouthpiece, the Xinhua news agency.
In a similar case last year, hundreds of young men were found to be working as slave labour in a string of brick kilns across northern China. Lured with promises of high wages, they were locked up and, in some cases, beaten to death.
According to reports from Sichuan, some of the foremen in the latest case have now been arrested and efforts are being made to return children to their parents.
April 30th, 2008 at 9:09 am
#49 grim: Got it. Thanks.
April 30th, 2008 at 9:10 am
3b,
The data is interesting, and certainly worth a look, while not ideal I don’t think we should just dismiss it. Hopefully, I’ll have something to post later in the day.
April 30th, 2008 at 9:16 am
SG,
Thanks for the plug. That was actually me in that article in the NYT on bargaining.
Mike
April 30th, 2008 at 9:18 am
gary,
Where was that listed?
April 30th, 2008 at 9:20 am
#52 grim: Thanks again for all your help. I just made a donation to your site, which is soemthing I had been meaning to do for quite some time. I finally took the time and did it.
Once again thank you for all of your time effort, help, and general good cheer in maintaining this site. All the best.
April 30th, 2008 at 9:21 am
Mike, where’s the best place to haggle for a TV?
April 30th, 2008 at 9:23 am
Thanks, I appreciate it.
April 30th, 2008 at 9:23 am
grim [54],
Good question. lol! It was on the market for at least a year and a half. Re-listed a few times and then it recently disappeared. I don’t know if it went UC or just fell through the cracks.
April 30th, 2008 at 9:27 am
grim,
The Address might be 121 West Greenbrook Road instead of just Greenbrook Road.
April 30th, 2008 at 9:38 am
Griffin, Black and Moelis. Some of the titans of the industry. Not comforting for a mold coast seller.
“Investors see recession, Wall Street depression”
http://www.portfolio.com/news-markets/national-news/reuters/2008/04/30/investors-see-recession-wall-street-depression
April 30th, 2008 at 9:39 am
Gary,
Went UC on 4/13
April 30th, 2008 at 9:46 am
#60 BC Bob: I do not agree with their belief that the recession is going to be that mild or brief.
Yes there are pockets that will do well, those areas that depend on commodities to power theri local economies (like Pittsburg)
But on a whole our economy is predicated on consumer spending. The consumer is tapped out, that will IMO make this recession quite severe.
I belive we were in much better shape to weather a refession in the ealry 90’s then we are today. A that time we did not have the huge over hang of consumer debt that we have today.
April 30th, 2008 at 9:52 am
Got my monthly compiled listings from the GSMLS today. There are now 6 3+ bedroom homes in Millburn listing for less than 500k. By this time next year, there might even be homes we’re willing to live in in this price range.
Can someone with GSMLS access please give me the status of the following in Millburn? I’m wondering if they went UC or were withdrawn. Thanks.
Lisa
4 Haran Circle
356 Wyoming Ave
April 30th, 2008 at 9:57 am
Some good RE discussion going on here, starting with those posts in the 20’s…
In the top towns if you have more than 2 kids, you’ll need a 4BR home and those are easily priced above 600k with the nice looking ones in the 800k range.
That Lil’ Kim story is classic. She’s got bad karma written all over her, so she gets what is coming to her. Somebody should youtube that news clip.
April 30th, 2008 at 9:57 am
Be prepared to lower price to sell your home
“Buyers just want price,” says Mike Morgan, a Stuart, Fla.-based lawyer, real-estate broker and consultant who researches property markets for hedge funds and financial institutions. “Buyers have become educated and they can easily cut through the fluffy incentives.”
Morgan doesn’t see any national rebound until at least 2010; maybe longer if builders keep constructing homes, and if banks continue dumping foreclosed properties on the market.
Living near a foreclosed home may even trim as much as $5,000 from your own home’s market value, the center says. Some 44 million households will be affected, or about a third of all U.S. housing units.
“On one $429,000 home a client wanted me to sell, the seller wanted to give the broker a $30,000 bonus on top of the commission. I told him it wouldn’t help. I told him to just drop the price.”
Because the market is so price-sensitive — buyers want bargains and sellers want to get prices they saw at the market’s peak — you have to be flexible when advertising your home.
“If you don’t get any calls on your listing price after a week, drop your price $10,000 or about 2 percent of your original asking price,” Morgan says.
“The market will tell you what the price of your home is. You better be priced 10 percent under your competition — and then be prepared to think about accepting offers under that.
“People were telling me Boston and Seattle were OK,” said Morgan, who recently visited both cities. “I’ve got news for those folks. They aren’t OK.”
To sell those houses, they have to offer steep discounts. They will be advertising and doing anything they can to attract buyers. It will take more than balloons and donuts, though, to land the number of buyers they need to stay in business.
April 30th, 2008 at 9:58 am
grim [61],
Thanks. I loved that house… obviously out of my price range. I wonder what price it went UC for?
April 30th, 2008 at 9:58 am
Dead mank walking.
BOSTON (MarketWatch) — Federal Deposit Insurance Corp. Chairwoman Sheila Bair will propose the government be allowed to offer loans to homeowners, marking the latest move to help strapped borrowers and the floundering mortgage market, the Wall Street Journal reported Wednesday.
The FDIC’s expected proposal would allow the Treasury Department to issue loans to close to 1 million homeowners, according to the report citing a confidential draft of the plan. The loans would let borrowers pay off up to 20% of principal they owed on their mortgages.
Borrowers would not have to make any payments on the Treasury loans for the first five years, the newspaper said.
The FDIC estimated it would require a $50 billion public debt offering in order to modify 1 million loans, according to the report.
April 30th, 2008 at 9:59 am
That’s dead man.
April 30th, 2008 at 10:04 am
Borrowers would not have to make any payments on the Treasury loans for the first five years, the newspaper said.
Why does this reek of a “Buy now and make no payments until 2013!!!!!” scheme.
$50 billion, eh? That must be why my wallet is in pain this morning.
April 30th, 2008 at 10:10 am
3b,
since you asked yesterday–
Criteria was a lower cost house in higher end neighborhood, around the corner from decent elementary school, in a town ideal for raising a young’un, that is the first high-end town on the Raritan line. Lower cost means I can get in with conforming loan and pay the rest, keeping the rate down. HELOC for renos comes at lower interest rate and I have it backed with cash anyway, and with effective taxable yield on munis higher than the HELOC, it makes sense to keep the cash. I figure this lowers my overall housing costs, which is the figure I always considered relevant–people never consider how much interest over time adds to their housing cost. Instead of paying about 1.1 MM over 30 years, I will probably pay less than 900K (with taxes being the wild card).
Bit small for my taste, but I recently sold a 1400 sqft rowhouse in Philly, so this is larger, to be sure. Also, we figured the house we wanted spacewise would cost us 750-850 anyway, so we bought a smaller house that could be expanded. Will spend the same $$ and get the house we want in the hood we want.
Agonized over it to be sure as I am a RE bear, but my time horizon is 15-20 years in this location, I am still able to hoard cash, and I did not think I would do much better before school starts.
Seller wants quick close, but I am not in any hurry to be a NJ taxpayer.
April 30th, 2008 at 10:11 am
Booya Bob-
This one’s for you…wherever you are…
http://news.yahoo.com/s/ap/20080429/ap_on_bi_ge/cashing_out_the_attic;_ylt=AqMdFztNJDOCupn8pIHHmK8DW7oF
JM
April 30th, 2008 at 10:11 am
Gary - I’ve seen that house many times. That’s a beautiful area. We drive through it every time we take our dog to the Rover Ranch and Spa.
April 30th, 2008 at 10:13 am
#56 Pat,
I personally prefer PC Richard. You can haggle the hell out of them and they expect it. BB and CC sales people have limited (to no) ability to set prices. PC Richard and 6th Ave Electronics will all work with you down to the last dollar. I went down and bought the new iMac on Monday night and even the Apple store in short hills mall worked with me. They would not drop the price of the computer (I never expected them to) but they gave me a free .mac account and a major discount on the applecare warranty. I even got a free printer also but that was part of an existing promotion. I find a lot of places will drop down a peg once you ask them to. I even got my termite insurance to drop 10% by asking but I wanted a bigger discount so I told them no thanks.
April 30th, 2008 at 10:13 am
So can I just borrow 20% for the heck of it and prepay my mortgage by 20%?
April 30th, 2008 at 10:14 am
John,
What news channel did you see that on. I would love to see it on you tube or perhaps on their website.
I love th erepo business especially at these times.
April 30th, 2008 at 10:15 am
Best way is to haggle them all down to rock bottom and then use a service like buyers edge to beat the rock bottom price. I will never use PC richards again, they sold me a serial number removed GE oven and then GE refused service and told me it was a return and PC richards refused service saying I most have peeled sticker off, the thing worked when I got it.
April 30th, 2008 at 10:16 am
Repo thing was on 10 pm news, I think channel 11, I laughed my butt of watching Little Kim outside her NJ mansion throwing F bombs at the reporter.
April 30th, 2008 at 10:18 am
“throwing F bombs at the reporter.”
John,
The Bronx cheer.
April 30th, 2008 at 10:28 am
Thanks, Mike.
April 30th, 2008 at 10:32 am
John, the stuff is disposable these days, anyway.
It’s not like in the 70’s, when you bought something like a washer and it was half your income for months, but it would last 20 years.
Now the stuff is made to last two years..it’s all about the price. Just like McMansions.
What’s better…a two thousand dollar thing that will last ten years, or a $500 buck thing that will last two years?
April 30th, 2008 at 10:33 am
Nom - That’s a good plan. I was planning to do something similar. Buy home on underutilized plot in top town and expand to my needs. The HELOC and muni investment was not something I thought about, but that’s an interesting concept to look into.
April 30th, 2008 at 10:42 am
Bob (41),
Ha! I know relatives of these people. It’s a pretty funny story.
April 30th, 2008 at 10:43 am
Have you checked out fridges lately they are like 2-3K and good ovens are 1-2K. Things today are crap, my mothers orignal to the house 1923 electric washer that you filled wtih a hose and had a clip on device you turned to squeeze out the water worked like a charm when we got rid of it in 2004. My mom washed rugs in the damm 80 year old washer, sure it cost a lot new but it was worth it.
April 30th, 2008 at 10:46 am
Edward Marini, a 63-year-old disabled Vietnam veteran, took out a $280,000 option ARM from Countrywide Financial when he refinanced the mortgage on his 2,000-square-foot home in Little Egg Harbor, N.J., in 2005, pulling out cash to pay off some debts.”
“‘The way I understood it was that I would have a really low payment for five years,’ says Mr. Marini.”
“Mr. Marini recently received a note from Countrywide that his payment, now about $1,300 a month, would jump to about $3,800 next year, well above his $3,250 a month in disability payments. Mr. Marini, who owes more than his home is worth, says he was turned down by Countrywide for a refinance and, more recently, for a loan modification.”
“‘I didn’t think they would even pull this kind of stuff on someone who is on a fixed income,’ he says.”
It’s a great time to buy because interest rates are at historic lows and there’s plenty of inventory. Do I have that correct, realtors?
April 30th, 2008 at 10:52 am
Here is the lil kim video…
http://cw11.trb.com/news/local/eveningnews/wpix-factfinderhome,0,6551865.htmlstory
April 30th, 2008 at 10:54 am
http://cw11.trb.com/news/local/eveningnews/wpix-factfinderhome,0,6551865.htmlstory
Here’s the news clip. It’s kinda funny. The reporter could have done a better job but it seems like he was scared.
April 30th, 2008 at 10:55 am
BC 41 Rich 82 I know relatives of them to.
I grew up around there. My Aunt sat with them at a party at Villa Amalfi about a month ago. Guttenburg is a wild town. Any of you guys experience to “The Cove” back in the day?
April 30th, 2008 at 11:07 am
test
:lol:
April 30th, 2008 at 11:09 am
“The Cove”
miw [87],
Not me. I was spending all my time in Belmar, DJais. Holme, the garden state boogie.
April 30th, 2008 at 11:17 am
Pat/Blood - what are good sources of rental info in Bucks + details of decent towns?
Think I’m done with Jersey, a friend wants to look there too and her hubby works in Trenton. A years rental would be a good way to give it a try risk free.
April 30th, 2008 at 11:18 am
Just in case no one saw it further up on the thread, can someone with GSMLS access please give me the status of the following in Millburn? I’m wondering if they went UC or were withdrawn. Thanks.
Lisa
4 Haran Circle
356 Wyoming Ave
April 30th, 2008 at 11:25 am
dave berry on economic stimulus
Q. What is an Economic Stimulus Payment?
A. It is money that the federal government will send to taxpayers.
Q. Where will the government get this money?
A. From taxpayers.
Q. So the government is giving me back my own money?
A. Only a smidgen.
Q. What is the purpose of this payment?
A. The plan is that you will use the money to purchase a high-definition TV set, thus stimulating the economy.
Q. But isn’t that stimulating the economy of China?
A. Shut up.
April 30th, 2008 at 11:33 am
BC 89 Did the Belmar thing too. This was a lets say unique bar for gentlemen, using the term loosely.
April 30th, 2008 at 11:36 am
#67
Call FDIC chairwoman - Sheila Bair’s office
# (202) 898-6974.
Let her know that we do not appreciate of her coming up with these crazy market manipulating ideas. Let the Market correct itself.
April 30th, 2008 at 11:47 am
Tom [94],
I agreee, bombard them with emails also.
April 30th, 2008 at 12:10 pm
Bucks County rentals (cheapskate version)
The competing rental finder companies (you’ll see them in the phillyburbs listings described below) charge a fee and advertise the same hook rentals over and over, so be careful.
All the agents who drank the Koolaid advertise their unsold condos & THs on craigslist for way too much rent. Here’s the rent you should expect to pay for a place in PA with an easy commute to Trenton:
Yardley: 2/2 condo 1125
Lower Makefield 2/2 condo: 1100-1300
Lower Makefield flashy 2/2 condo: 1400-1500
Lower Makefield TH: 1500-1600
Newtown: 2/2 condo: about the same.
Newtown TH: Many varieties; prices vary a lot.
Fairless Hills ranch 3/1, .25 acre: 1350
Morrisville Cape: 1250 (old);1500 remodeled k/b
Langhorne is good too, but you often need a real estate agent who handles rentals there. All the big real estate offices have a person who is their “rental specialist” now.
The newspaper ads are consolidated into the rentals area on phillyburbs . From the homepage, click Shopping, then Homesearch, then ForRent on the green bar. You’ll see categories in blue; click on each one. Unfortunately, you have to read them all..there’s no good way to parse the list. There are also a lot of nice places in NJ listed there for rent.
You can also check the apartment complexes for the lowest rents. If you have any questions, come back.
April 30th, 2008 at 12:11 pm
it looks like maybe someone is actually listing at something approaching a realistic price, at least not at 05 prices.
I found this house the other day by chance.
84 main st califon nj
http://tinyurl.com/4oqwrv
asking 387K
purchased 06/98 for $260K
3% annual Appreciation puts the house at about $350K in 2008
if we go for the 04 $ value of the house as some people on here suggest then the house would be about 310K
this house looks like a good candidate for challenging the tax evalution from 06 @ 462K
April 30th, 2008 at 12:12 pm
#50 Essex - I believe it. I used to work with a guy who was born in mainland China in the fifties - you would not believe some of the horror stories he told. And in a tone of voice that we would use to describe the most boring aspects of our lives. It was chilling. It really is another world there - where life is cheap.
April 30th, 2008 at 12:19 pm
Kettle [96],
Not bad. One possible negative, would you be within launching distance of Clot?
April 30th, 2008 at 12:19 pm
67. BC Bob Says:
April 30th, 2008 at 9:58 am
Dead mank walking.
BOSTON (MarketWatch) — Federal Deposit Insurance Corp. Chairwoman Sheila Bair will propose the government be allowed to offer loans to homeowners, marking the latest move to help strapped borrowers and the floundering mortgage market, the Wall Street Journal reported Wednesday.
The FDIC’s expected proposal would allow the Treasury Department to issue loans to close to 1 million homeowners, according to the report citing a confidential draft of the plan. The loans would let borrowers pay off up to 20% of principal they owed on their mortgages.
Borrowers would not have to make any payments on the Treasury loans for the first five years, the newspaper said.
The FDIC estimated it would require a $50 billion public debt offering in order to modify 1 million loans, according to the report.
This plan basically shows that the Bankrupt USA has no options left.
April 30th, 2008 at 12:23 pm
BC,
Dont forget about my bunker! no problem when you have a hardened bunker installed!
April 30th, 2008 at 12:24 pm
Ket 96 Looks nice, don’t know anything about town or area but I love the house if the pics hold true.
April 30th, 2008 at 12:27 pm
i lived in califon, and i personally think the area is quite nice. most people would have a serious commute from there, but it depends on what you are looking for.
if it or similar homes are still on the market in 1 year may seriously consider them. but its still to early in the game for me. there is still to far for the market to drop for me to jump in yet. Although it is tempting!
April 30th, 2008 at 12:30 pm
clott
do you have any info on the 2 homes that come up as foreclosed in califon, 1 on phillhower and 1 on river rd?
April 30th, 2008 at 12:39 pm
Dont worry, the economy is fine and will turn around by fall.
Americans unload prized belongings to make ends meet
http://tinyurl.com/67wdbb
By ANNE D’INNOCENZIO, AP Business Writer Tue Apr 29, 6:04 PM ET
NEW YORK - The for-sale listings on the online hub Craigslist come with plaintive notices, like the one from the teenager in Georgia who said her mother lost her job and pleaded, “Please buy anything you can to help out.”
Or the seller in Milwaukee who wrote in one post of needing to pay bills — and put a diamond engagement ring up for bids to do it.
Struggling with mounting debt and rising prices, faced with the toughest economic times since the early 1990s, Americans are selling prized possessions online and at flea markets at alarming rates.
To meet higher gas, food and prescription drug bills, they are selling off grandmother’s dishes and their own belongings. Some of the household purging has been extremely painful — families forced to part with heirlooms.
“This is not about downsizing. It’s about needing gas money,” said Nancy Baughman, founder of eBizAuctions, an online auction service she runs out of her garage in Raleigh, N.C. One former affluent customer is now unemployed and had to unload Hermes leather jackets and Versace jeans and silk shirts.
April 30th, 2008 at 12:48 pm
I think this guy has been reading our posts.
http://seekingalpha.com/article/74824-from-housing-to-employment-we-re-in-big-trouble
April 30th, 2008 at 12:50 pm
#90 lisoosh: Think I’m done with Jersey.
Oh No!! You too? Why? )Probably a stupid question.)
April 30th, 2008 at 12:59 pm
bairen
You have to wonder who might be using this board as a source. The level of the posts and conversations here is higher then most such boards i have come across. I believe that grim has caught newspaper pulling from him before also if i remember correctly….
April 30th, 2008 at 1:01 pm
when a house is listed as having a cesspool for sewage, is that the same as a septic tank?
April 30th, 2008 at 1:02 pm
Given the fact that I routinely push the limits of fair use, the media can use whatever they’d like. They won’t get a cease and desist from me. Speaking of which, I’m due for another.
April 30th, 2008 at 1:03 pm
moderation
April 30th, 2008 at 1:10 pm
If people move every seven years (or so they say) and we are going back to 2002 prices that means every home purchased from 2003-2008 will be worth less than the owner has paid for the house. 6 out of 7 homeowners underwater, cool beans. I doubt that is true but stats are funny you can make them say what you want. Kinda like saying the aveage person who have been in their house over 7 years has seen their home price more than double. As if to imply buy in 2008 and by 2015 you will have doubled your money. Prices are not that important, it is inventory and sales. Until people start buying and inventory falls pricing will be ilquid and comps won’t mean anything.
April 30th, 2008 at 1:11 pm
“when a house is listed as having a cesspool for sewage”
kettle,
ARM, piggyback, I/O, 80/20, pay option, neg amort, zero down?
April 30th, 2008 at 1:15 pm
#111
“when a house is listed as having a cesspool for sewage”
Break out the deck chairs and the water polo nets.
April 30th, 2008 at 1:16 pm
#104
Those are some strong words. They guy has a point but seems a bit alarmist. After reading his post, one thing comes to mind…location, location, location. Buy in a location that can withstand the crush. I sure hope I did but only time will tell. I think many of those that chose the cheaper/bigger home farther away from the area employment center will see their prices drop the fastest and deepest. I worry about a severe downturn like most homeowners but the numbers that this guys talks about I think will be reserved for the places that indeed were not properly priced in the grand scheme of things.
April 30th, 2008 at 1:19 pm
kettle1 Says:
it looks like maybe someone is actually listing at something approaching a realistic price, at least not at 05 prices.
That is a nice house and I’m willing to pay $20,000 over whatever offer you come up with…wait I just started a bidding war.
Seriously, watch the 3/1…might get a little cramped. I like Califon. The commute is tough though
April 30th, 2008 at 1:21 pm
kettle1 Says:
when a house is listed as having a cesspool for sewage, is that the same as a septic tank?
Nope. Cesspool is a tank that holds all the $hit. You have to get a truck in and get it pumped regularly. Enjoy that going on.
Septic spreads it out under you lawn and it all biodegrades naturally. Expect alot of those up in Califon area
April 30th, 2008 at 1:28 pm
“One thing we can count on is that as consumers are forced to de-lever many will likely see a decline in living standards because so much of household cash flow has been financed by credit. That’s when we will see the political and social reverberations of de-leveraging. For starters, take it as a given that most consumers won’t blame themselves for the end of dream.”
http://www.minyanville.com/articles/WB-C-banks-liquidity-debt-leverage/index/a/16957
I can’t believe he’d say that about Americans.
April 30th, 2008 at 1:30 pm
#33 John
http://cw11.trb.com/news/local/eveningnews/wpix-factfinderhome,0,6551865.htmlstory
April 30th, 2008 at 1:32 pm
X
the house is yours my friend. We have discussed different negotiation styles, and mine does not include bidding wars. There will always be another house.
Re septic:
I have had septic in most of the places i have lived, as well as well water. I do not mind either. I would consider having a septic installed if there were no prohibiting factors on that property
April 30th, 2008 at 1:34 pm
Hehe
My hope is that the economic $hit storm that is just beginning to rain down on the US will bring out the character in people that was exemplified by our founders. it may be a long shot, but adversity tends either bring out the best or the worst in people, i hope for the best and plan for the worst
April 30th, 2008 at 1:35 pm
MLS#: 2511272 Price: $569,000 . This house in New Providence is priced at 2003 prices. Nice house in ArchGate section, walk to school, park & train.
April 30th, 2008 at 1:38 pm
The Anti-Bill Gross;
“Must Government Inflate Home Prices?”
http://www.lewrockwell.com/anderson/anderson213.html
April 30th, 2008 at 1:39 pm
Kettle,
It being America, count on the worst.
April 30th, 2008 at 1:39 pm
hold on boys we (the economy) are going in!
http://tinyurl.com/3h52ab
April 30th, 2008 at 1:40 pm
#117
Wow, locksmiths are experiencing an increase in business from having to make new keys to the Repo’d cars.
April 30th, 2008 at 1:43 pm
MLS#: 2511638 Price: $459,000. This Berkeley Heights TownHouse in Berkeley Meadows is priced at 2003 prices. Nice location on Meadowview Lane. Was originally on for @ $629K.
April 30th, 2008 at 1:44 pm
i’m sure everyone has seen this image before, but i nominate this image as the official logo of the US home owner, underwater but focused on the important things
http://tinyurl.com/3huv3s
April 30th, 2008 at 1:52 pm
GSMLS Inventory Officially at 36,031…
We’ve passed 36k before the peak summer season.
April 30th, 2008 at 2:01 pm
#23 Bairen,
Stay away from the northern part around nomahegan park, its a flood zone.
April 30th, 2008 at 2:02 pm
3b Says:
April 30th, 2008 at 12:50 pm
#90 lisoosh: Think I’m done with Jersey.
“Oh No!! You too? Why? )Probably a stupid question.)”
Husbands work is slow and he is getting fed up. And just tired of busting his @ss and going nowhere. I used to make quite a bit more than him but at my age + 2 kids + 6/7 years out of the workforce, I won’t be making any money in a hurry. I have a couple of businesses I am setting up, neither of which is location specific but I do need a workshop/barn and more space in order to get them up and running.
We don’t have debts, have money in the bank and live fairly frugally so we’re fine, but in order to move forward, something has to give. A good sized rental from which he could commute until he finds something local would work out well.
Also looking at other areas entirely - I’ve shortlisted Eugene Oregon (Cindy?? what do you say?), Austin Texas (but not sure about the heat/humidity/allergies) and New Mexico. Liberal, more affordable and decent sized Jewish communities. Ithaca NY appeals too but I think the winters would be too chilly.
I think I’m just done with the big hair, big egos, big talk and big taxes. We’ll see. But I don’t want to become someone elses bagholder.
April 30th, 2008 at 2:11 pm
Benny, you’re on in 5!
April 30th, 2008 at 2:13 pm
Just took at the lil’ kim bentley repo clip. I want to see the unedited full length version where she opens the door cursing out the reporter with her little pasties on…
April 30th, 2008 at 2:15 pm
Polish central bank holds at 5.75%, what will Bernanski do?
April 30th, 2008 at 2:16 pm
Fed goes 25 bps….
April 30th, 2008 at 2:16 pm
Vote is 8-2 to cut 25 bps
April 30th, 2008 at 2:18 pm
At least Fisher and Plosser get it.
April 30th, 2008 at 2:20 pm
kettle1 Says:
the house is yours my friend.
I googled Califon to where I work…42 miles.
I’ve done that before…never again, especially with $5 gas coming up
Oldwick is max distance…10 miles less.
April 30th, 2008 at 2:20 pm
Off to the races. Dow above 13k again. What recession?
April 30th, 2008 at 2:24 pm
“This is not about downsizing. It’s about needing gas money,”
From [105],
Don’t worry about downsizing. The fed sees inflation risks moderating.
April 30th, 2008 at 2:24 pm
May I ask a genaral question?
If the home inspection report suggests “Have the system serviced and repaired as necessary”, but seller refuses to have it serviced because it is kind of maintenance. What could buyer response? Thanks
April 30th, 2008 at 2:25 pm
flexibleExecutives.com
FlexibleResources.com
Flexperienceconsulting.com
momcorps.com
on-ramps.com
are all looking for college educated stay at home moms with prior business experience for short flexible high paying gigs. just an fyi to the ladies at home looking for CASH.
April 30th, 2008 at 2:27 pm
Hard Place
We did’nt reach 36,0000 last year until oct. Looks like 40″ is really the new 30″
KL
April 30th, 2008 at 2:28 pm
FOMC: Inflation Moderating
BWAHHAHHHHHAAAAAA!!!
April 30th, 2008 at 2:28 pm
125 kettle
Jeebus!
Where’d you find that?
April 30th, 2008 at 2:28 pm
From the FOMC:
The Federal Open Market Committee decided today to lower its target for the federal funds rate 25 basis points to 2 percent.
Recent information indicates that economic activity remains weak. Household and business spending has been subdued and labor markets have softened further. Financial markets remain under considerable stress, and tight credit conditions and the deepening housing contraction are likely to weigh on economic growth over the next few quarters.
Although readings on core inflation have improved somewhat, energy and other commodity prices have increased, and some indicators of inflation expectations have risen in recent months. The Committee expects inflation to moderate in coming quarters, reflecting a projected leveling-out of energy and other commodity prices and an easing of pressures on resource utilization. Still, uncertainty about the inflation outlook remains high. It will be necessary to continue to monitor inflation developments carefully.
The substantial easing of monetary policy to date, combined with ongoing measures to foster market liquidity, should help to promote moderate growth over time and to mitigate risks to economic activity. The Committee will continue to monitor economic and financial developments and will act as needed to promote sustainable economic growth and price stability.
Voting for the FOMC monetary policy action were: Ben S. Bernanke, Chairman; Timothy F. Geithner, Vice Chairman; Donald L. Kohn; Randall S. Kroszner; Frederic S. Mishkin; Sandra Pianalto; Gary H. Stern; and Kevin M. Warsh. Voting against were Richard W. Fisher and Charles I. Plosser, who preferred no change in the target for the federal funds rate at this meeting.
April 30th, 2008 at 2:29 pm
https://secure.85broads.com/public/corporatesponsorship
85broads.com is the place to hit for telecommuting flex time mommy wall street jobs. Hint Hint 85 Broad is Goldman, but lots of wall street and banks advertise there.
April 30th, 2008 at 2:30 pm
131 ’soosh
You’d probably really like Austin (allergies aside). My died-in-the-wool NYC parents spent a year there (teacher exchange) and LOVED it.
April 30th, 2008 at 2:30 pm
gary
“FOMC: Inflation Moderating”
ah - but what’s it moderating…?
April 30th, 2008 at 2:31 pm
Re 141 depends if you are paying above market or below market. Last house we sold to a buyer at a good price starting dickering about chimmny cleaning type nonsense and wanted us to pay, took the slightly higher off instead as if I have to do nonsense I want to get paid for it. If you are paying market price and the owner does not have a back up buyer, tell him you are walking if he don’t pay.
April 30th, 2008 at 2:33 pm
Yield on the 10yr is up (2 and 5 as well). Countering for inflation?
April 30th, 2008 at 2:33 pm
has anyone else noticed the MS recently? I watched the morning news for the first time in months today. I swear that the MSM is attempting to mimic the fictional Ministry of Truth. The MSM take on the economy and what is happening is so far off the real events as to almost qualify as entertainment! and we wonder why the general public has no idea what is going on.
“Men fear thought as they fear nothing else on earth — more than ruin — more even than death…. Thought is subversive and revolutionary, destructive and terrible, thought is merciless to privilege, established institutions, and comfortable habit. Thought looks into the pit of hell and is not afraid. Thought is great and swift and free, the light of the world, and the chief glory of man.”
Bertrand Russell
April 30th, 2008 at 2:34 pm
njpatient,
Inflation’s moderating everybody’s pockets.
April 30th, 2008 at 2:36 pm
vodka (104)-
Sorry, no info at hand. Hunterdon filings aren’t online. You have to go to Flemington and deal with the most f-ed up county clerk’s office in NJ.
I only go once every few weeks. Every time I go, I swear to myself it’ll be the last time.
April 30th, 2008 at 2:41 pm
patient,
it was from a ship that passed near one of the 2006 hurricanes i believe
April 30th, 2008 at 2:41 pm
njpatient Says:
April 30th, 2008 at 2:30 pm
131 ’soosh
“You’d probably really like Austin (allergies aside). My died-in-the-wool NYC parents spent a year there (teacher exchange) and LOVED it.”
Allergies AND Heat and Humidity. Killer combo.
I know I’d love it though my experience totals 2 days. Good food, good beer, good nightlife, liberal outlook, multiple festivals, green, good public transport, affordable housing. What’s not to like, apart from all the Californians moving out there, but I don’t mind Californians anyway, I like loopy.
April 30th, 2008 at 2:42 pm
John. I do have to say, you constantly amaze me.
April 30th, 2008 at 2:46 pm
What’s the under/over on the time line when I receive the first email from a realtor telling me that mortgage rates will be even better now since the FED has dropped the rates once again.
April 30th, 2008 at 2:50 pm
122 & 127 Confused In NJ
Thank you for advertising the new listings from your office. Both places are expensive. I hope your seller’s come to their senses before they lose more $$
April 30th, 2008 at 2:51 pm
153 gary
exactly
April 30th, 2008 at 2:52 pm
#150, thanks John. This is not a super deal, just a reasonable one. But if we walk away, we will lose attorney and inspector cost, which could be higher than the cost of services. And, could it be the excuse to withdraw?
April 30th, 2008 at 2:53 pm
The US consumer should sue the fed; treason and fraud.
April 30th, 2008 at 2:55 pm
Gary,
I got one yesterday anticipating the drop!
KL
Ledward,
Inspection clause could get you out. Possibly
April 30th, 2008 at 2:56 pm
156 soosh
it’s the humidity that does me in.
I lived in LA for a year and had a friend explain to me why CA is so loopy: “Once a year, G*d picks up the US by grabbing Cape Cod, gives the country a couple of shakes, and all the loose people trickle down to CA.”
April 30th, 2008 at 3:01 pm
rhymingrealtor,
It’s inevitable.
April 30th, 2008 at 3:05 pm
njpatient Says:
April 30th, 2008 at 2:56 pm
“it’s the humidity that does me in.”
“and all the loose people trickle down to CA.””
Yup, that’s why NM would be fine, desert heat doesn’t bother me, just stay out of the noon day sun (mad dogs and Englishmen and all that).
I like the CA quote - definitely, the “loose” people. Always something to see though.
April 30th, 2008 at 3:16 pm
S&P’s now lower. Benny, Benny come back for an encore.
April 30th, 2008 at 3:19 pm
am so cheap that I don’t even enter office pools or buy a lottery ticket when the prize tops $100 million, so I will pass on your wager.
Good Call. Office pool? I thought you’re a rich guy who flies charter planes to Bermuda? you actually have to work for a living everyday?
April 30th, 2008 at 3:21 pm
Lisoosh,
be aware that the southwest is just starting to enter what will most likely be a decades long dry spell. What issues are going to become severe over the next several years. the available water supplies are predicted to not be sufficient for local population in 2 - 5 years depending on the city. FYI
April 30th, 2008 at 3:22 pm
correction
Water issues are going to become severe over the next several years
April 30th, 2008 at 3:33 pm
Lisoosh,
if you are interested…..
Study Sees Drought Trend in U.S. Southwest (NPR)
http://tinyurl.com/3pymdg
one of many sources.
April 30th, 2008 at 3:37 pm
re: cesspool
This suggests the possibility of a failed septic system with insufficient space or unsuitable soil for a replacement.
April 30th, 2008 at 3:42 pm
broken,
the cesspool thing is a definite red flag for me. i would do lots of digging (no pun intended) on that
April 30th, 2008 at 3:49 pm
#158 gary: Just talk to the Realtors about the difference between short and long rates, and how the Fed onoy controls the short end of the curve. And the market controls the long end,and how 30 yr fixed rated mtgs are based off of the 10 yr treasury. That will shut them up.
April 30th, 2008 at 3:53 pm
3b
Don’t forget to bring up LIBOR.
KL
April 30th, 2008 at 3:54 pm
3b [174],
Probably better chance of them understanding Mandarin.
April 30th, 2008 at 3:56 pm
Pat - Thanks. Those are good places to start. My husband works in Bridgewater so perhaps I should also look more northward (though I prefer Bucks), it is my friend whose husband is bound to Trenton (lobbyist).
Ket. - good point. Looks like only place left is Oregon. ‘Till I retire in Scotland that is.
April 30th, 2008 at 3:59 pm
Faux news AKA
The Ministry of Truth
Despite housing, credit woes, GDP actually grew
Shrugging off doom-and-gloom predictions, U.S. economy manages to expand 0.6 percent in the first quarter
http://www.foxbusiness.com/story/markets/economy/economy-expands–quarter/
April 30th, 2008 at 4:00 pm
BC (176)-
No chance of them understanding anything.
April 30th, 2008 at 4:01 pm
A rate cut just doesn’t go as far as it used to. Must be the inflation.
April 30th, 2008 at 4:07 pm
New government website for comparing fuel economy of cars:
http://www.fueleconomy.gov/
April 30th, 2008 at 4:11 pm
“GDP actually grew” - yeah inventories grew, but consumer spending didn’t, so what do they do next quarter when all that crap sits on the shelves, no wait we send out refund checks and hope they buy the crap
April 30th, 2008 at 4:15 pm
Looking forward to the mad maxian gas and water wars in the southwest. Welcome to barter town, I wonder how the real estate agents would spin that one. I really need to buy more ammo.
It is also nice to see that I’m not the only paranoid freak who thinks the MSM is sounding more and more Orwellian.
April 30th, 2008 at 4:25 pm