Mon 5 May 2008
According to the National Association of Realtors, the answer is no, it has always been a good time to buy…
…even during the darkest depths of the Great Depression. Unemployment was nearing 16% and approximately 8 million Americans were unemployed. Banks were in turmoil, with roughly 2,000 banks failing in 1931, including the New York Bank of the United States (the largest bank failure in the history of the nation at the time). You might think that in the midst of the worst economic downturn the world had ever seen the Realtors might would show some restraint.
Nope, it’s a great time to buy a home!
Realtor (R) Magazine, May 2008
May 5th, 2008 at 5:35 pm
By ‘31 home prices had already tumbled dramatically. While the intent of this was to poke fun at the Realtors, in retrospect, 1931 probably wasn’t such a bad time to buy.
But only if you had the means to do so…
May 5th, 2008 at 5:44 pm
1930’s Housing/Living Costs
http://www.thepeoplehistory.com/1931.html
May 5th, 2008 at 5:49 pm
Hovnanian
From Bloomberg:
http://www.bloomberg.com/apps/news?pid=20601110&sid=aIQg5gBUOJKA
May 5th, 2008 at 5:50 pm
I respectfully retract my comment about 1931 being a good time to buy.
May 5th, 2008 at 6:12 pm
The f*cking west coast could be wiped out by a meteor causing a tidal wave that moves 75 miles inland through Japan while throwing the planet into darkness for nine months and the NAR would claim interest rates are at historic lows and there’s plenty to choose from.
May 5th, 2008 at 6:28 pm
Grim,
I’m waiting for your wife to announce there is blood in the streets. Then it will be a good time to buy.
May 5th, 2008 at 6:39 pm
As a retired Long Island school administrator, James Hunderfund enjoys a special distinction. He collects the largest public pension in New York — $316,245 a year.
Hunderfund, 64, retired as superintendent from the Commack school district in August 2006, after 37 years in the system. In September 2007, he went to work as the superintendent of the Malverne school district, which has about 1,655 students. There, he collects about $200,000 a year in salary, according to state records. Altogether, Hunderfund is paid more than $500,000 a year.
In an interview, Hunderfund said he deserves the compensation, saying, “I think I earned every dollar I received.” To receive that pension, he said he followed the rules allowed by the state.
After all, “It’s For The Children”!
May 5th, 2008 at 6:42 pm
I’m waiting for your wife to announce there is blood in the streets. Then it will be a good time to buy.
Another house we were interested in back in 05/06 hit the market today. Asking price is $20k above the January 2006 purchase price. Unfortunately after commission the seller stands to lose more than $10,000.
If it sells at asking…
May 5th, 2008 at 6:44 pm
doh!
WSJ
Casino Operator Tropicana Expected
To File for Bankruptcy Protection
By JEFFREY MCCRACKEN AND TAMARA AUDI
May 5, 2008 4:52 p.m.
Struggling casino operator Tropicana Entertainment LLC is expected to file for bankruptcy protection as early as today, said two people familiar with the matter. It would be the largest corporate bankruptcy of the year, and the latest blow to Las Vegas, which has seen gambling revenues decline and major building projects canceled or delayed in the last few months.
Kentucky-based Tropicana has a small casino empire which includes the famed Tropicana Resort & Casino in Las Vegas and a host of small regional casinos from Mississippi to Baton Rouge.
AP Photo/Jae C. Hong
The Tropicana Resort & Casino in Las Vegas
The company, which has annual sales of around $1 billion with 11,000 employees, missed an interest payment Friday on a $1.32 billion loan with lender Credit Suisse and isn’t expected to make that payment, said these two people. Missing the payment then terminates a forbearance agreement it had with bondholders, putting further pressure on the gaming company.
A Tropicana spokesperson declined to comment.
Tropicana Entertainment was formed in 2006 when William Yung III — who also owns and operates Columbia Sussex, a large hotel-property owner — struck a deal to purchase Aztar Corp. for $1.94 billion. Mr. Yung bested competitors in a fierce bidding war and reset casino values in Las Vegas, paying an estimated $30 million an acre to gain control of Aztar’s crown jewel: the storied Tropicana Las Vegas.
But Tropicana has been stumbling since late last year, when New Jersey regulators stripped the company of its gambling license to operate a Tropicana casino in Atlantic City. The unusual license revocation came after severe cutbacks Mr. Yung made at the property, which regulators said left it poorly managed in violation of New Jersey regulations. Columbia Sussex will not be part of the bankruptcy filing, said these people.
Tropicana had $2.67 billion in rated bank and bond debt, according to Moody’s Investor Service. The largest previous bankruptcy filing of the year was Quebecor World Inc., which had rated debt of approximately $1.8 billion.
Tropicana bonds, which come due December 2014, traded around 50 cents last week.
“Tropicana had high leverage right out of the box,” said Peggy Holloway, Moody’s vice president and senior credit officer, who has Tropicana rated Caa3, its third-lowest rating.
“Gaming operators overall are facing headwinds from the broader economy. And unlike some past recessions, casinos are not proving to be recession proof this time around,” she said.
The company has retained Kirkland & Ellis LLP. as bankruptcy counsel and Lazard Ltd. as financial advisor, said these people. It is expected to file in Wilmington, Delaware.
Lenders on one Tropicana credit agreement have retained the firm of Houlihan Lokey Howard & Zukin as financial advisrr. Bondholders have retained Jefferies & Co.
The filing “will not be pre-packaged. It’s really kinda last minute with no real plan in place,” said one person briefed on the filing.
May 5th, 2008 at 6:59 pm
Marketplace Radio claims that bottom fishermen are buying now…marking a possible bottom tp this epic correction.
May 5th, 2008 at 7:01 pm
With more than 60,000 homes for sale in New Jersey right now, they better bring the entire fleet.
May 5th, 2008 at 7:02 pm
As I mentioned in the last thread, I killed my contract on VermiculiteAcre, in no small part due to this board.
Thank you to all who replied. It probably saved me many thousands of dollars.
May 5th, 2008 at 7:18 pm
#10 essex: that bottom fishermen are buying now…
Poor fools.
May 5th, 2008 at 7:19 pm
12: OR, you just bailed on a house that you really liked in order to waste many more hours (and a #!$!load of agitation) trying to call bottom. Good luck.
May 5th, 2008 at 7:21 pm
Kudlow says after today’s ISM #, the Recession is dead;Bears weep!!!
May 5th, 2008 at 7:22 pm
#14 Imus: Why it is only 4 walls and a roof. Never chase after a bus,or a house;there is alwaya another one coming.
May 5th, 2008 at 7:25 pm
#14 Immus,
Why would you buy a house with all the problems nom recited?
There are over 60k houses on the market in NJ. If nom really wants to buy now, I’m sure he can find a better conditioned one in his prcie range.
May 5th, 2008 at 7:34 pm
16: I remember friends of mine in NYC in the 90’s used to tell me the same thing. They are still waiting and still renting (Doh!). You have to man up and purchase at some point. Every house has a price that makes sense. I noticed that even Grim is pondering making a purchase now. Take the hint. Just friendly advice. Have fun getting worked up.
May 5th, 2008 at 7:41 pm
Nom saw smoke, why wait for the fire. Too bad just a small % of bubble buyers didn’t have just an ounce of his prudence.
May 5th, 2008 at 7:45 pm
“Every house has a price that makes sense.”
I agree. For me, 30-40 off peak. That said, does every property tax make sense?
May 5th, 2008 at 7:46 pm
30-40%
May 5th, 2008 at 8:08 pm
#18 Imus: So buying is a man up thing, even if it does not make sense? Guess it’s patriotic too. Sounds like you spend some time with realestatecrybaby.
As far as grim from the begining I believe he has always said he would buy when it makes sense;just like most people here.
There is a difference between manning up and making a stupid decesion just because you are afraid somebody won’t think you are a man.
May 5th, 2008 at 8:17 pm
I think I did man up here.
I put my foot down and said no to the house the spouse liked and my broker was pushing me to buy, and did so in order to protect my family’s fiscal and physical health. And I will hold out for the right house and price.
If that is not man enough, so be it.
May 5th, 2008 at 8:19 pm
#23 nom you da man.
If you can see so many problems on an inspection, who knows what else there might be.
May 5th, 2008 at 8:23 pm
barien,
This was more a combination of inquisitiveness and blind, dumb luck.
I would be in deep doo doo (or vermiculite) if it were not for Grim and others on this board. I did the follow-on research and found the ticking time bomb. I did not know, and no one warned me except this board.
If there is ever a GTG that I can attend, Grim is getting bombed on my dime.
May 5th, 2008 at 8:24 pm
What role do the testes play in the transaction, exactly?
I’ve never seen a purchase driven by a “manly” decision to buy. In fact, more often than not, it is emasculation that drives most transactions.
See: Suzanne Researched This
http://youtube.com/watch?v=Ubsd-tWYmZw
May 5th, 2008 at 8:28 pm
[26] my point precisely.
so when do you wanna get bombed?
May 5th, 2008 at 8:37 pm
The Suzanne Researched It commercial should be required viewing before any man can apply for a marriage license. We all know there are plenty of homeowners who are getting murdered by house payments. And on to of that they didn’t factor in the $500 a month winter heating bill in their calculations. In 3 out of 5 cases, the wife runs the show, it appears it was her decision to buy the house, the husband is completely p-whipped. Contractors will tell them something like it will take $6k and a weeks worth of construction to fix the problem, but they have no money / equity / credit left to draw on.
May 5th, 2008 at 8:41 pm
Yes, let’s get bombed! :)
May 5th, 2008 at 8:41 pm
#26 I’ve never seen that commercial before. Awful. i see why there are those Suzanne researched this comments on other blogs.
I have a TV. I was in Australia when it came out.
May 5th, 2008 at 8:42 pm
I should add that this is reported to me by my brother’s neighbor who does general contracting work. The guy says he has seen too many homes who finances are controlled by raw emotion and status seeking: Houses filled with ‘toys’ and homeowners with zero financial security.
May 5th, 2008 at 8:47 pm
So Grim/Chicago -Are you going to hear Thaler and Sunstein on the 7th? I just ordered “Nudge” -only $15.60. I read a few of the reviews - sheer genius. Opt out - not in…is the term “behavioral economics?”
If you are attending, I hope you’ll give a report…Thanks ahead of time.
May 5th, 2008 at 8:47 pm
Nom Deplume Says:
May 5th, 2008 at 8:17 pm
I think I did man up here.
I put my foot down and said no to the house the spouse liked and my broker was pushing me to buy, and did so in order to protect my family’s fiscal and physical health. And I will hold out for the right house and price.
If that is not man enough, so be it.
NDP: serious spine + serious sac + logic = manly manhood
May 5th, 2008 at 8:49 pm
Cindy Says:
May 5th, 2008 at 8:47 pm
So Grim/Chicago -Are you going to hear Thaler and Sunstein on the 7th? I just ordered “Nudge” -only $15.60. I read a few of the reviews - sheer genius. Opt out - not in…is the term “behavioral economics?”
If you are attending, I hope you’ll give a report…Thanks ahead of time.
C: sure thing Teach- ;-)
May 5th, 2008 at 8:54 pm
from the other thread:
Shore Guy Says:
May 5th, 2008 at 8:44 pm
# 185 Or we could conserve energy and up the CAFE standards, but that would actually require action and responsibility.
# 192 It is easy to distinguish it from other critters’ urine bythe taste, I am told.
May 5th, 2008 at 9:17 pm
The ultimate sign of how bad the economy has become.
http://www.lvrj.com/news/18559294.html
May 5th, 2008 at 9:23 pm
Stop pickin’ on the chicks.
May 5th, 2008 at 9:42 pm
Nom -
Welcome back to the Renter’s Regiment…
You almost got swayed into the Dark Side, but saw the light. Asbestos issues are serious. To think I remember when I was little seeing in the basement of our house these pipes wrapped with insulation. I think I used to hang on them once in a while. Knowing what I know now, they were probably wrapped in asbestos. Good for you to protect your family. Unfortunately my mom and dad didn’t know any better. Luckily I’m healthy, for now…
May 5th, 2008 at 9:42 pm
Foreclosure gutting party….
http://sanantonio.craigslist.org/hsh/668689746.html
May 5th, 2008 at 10:12 pm
this is a little interesting:
http://www.angryrenter.com/
SAS
May 5th, 2008 at 11:07 pm
#40 Don’t understand why these renters would be upset, little do they know that renters are the lucky ones in today’s housing market. If these people would chill out and have a drink or two then they will realize that they are the lucky and smart ones at the moment who didn’t cave into the “Buy now and be priced out forever” tantrums.
May 5th, 2008 at 11:38 pm
Kettle,
What do you make of this? Do you think it’ll work?
http://news.yahoo.com/s/afp/20080505/lf_afp/usreligionpovertyenergyoil
May 6th, 2008 at 12:29 am
Nom-
The vermiculite thing is for real. It’s scary stuff. As far as the asbestos-wrapped pipes thing goes, you might as well stop looking at older homes in NJ. Virtually all of them have this to some degree or another.
Unless you have a family member who enjoys handling asbestos wrapping and standing around to inhale the particles they release, this is a non-issue.
I’m still amazed at how many posters here believe the market can be talked down to zero. Buying right now only offers benefit to a few people, but for that few, the benefit is, indeed, there. To cheerlead someone you don’t know into not buying (or, for that matter, buying) is both self-serving and irreponsible.
In fact, it’s just as self-serving and irresponsible as working the “Suzanne researched this” gambit.
May 6th, 2008 at 12:34 am
Hard Place (38)-
Like I said…how many people would actually handle- or swing on- an asbestos-wrapped pipe?
May 6th, 2008 at 12:36 am
BTW…Chris Paul is the best player in the NBA.
May 6th, 2008 at 1:58 am
18 imus
“Just friendly advice.”
Yeah - what you said at 14 was really friendly.
Nom de Plume, reinvestor 101 is our only troll more unpleasant than Imus, IMO. Ignore him.
May 6th, 2008 at 2:06 am
43 clot
“I’m still amazed at how many posters here believe the market can be talked down to zero.”
Really? Who, for instance?
May 6th, 2008 at 5:35 am
Clot Talked down to zero. Clot in my area baring some unforeseen mass buying the market is set to over shoot to the down side. I don’t have to say a word. By watching sales & price declines you can see it coming. A re neighbor of mine put the months supply in my town at 17. I said 11 mon. but was corrected by her. Zero never, but my area is posed to hit levels that would make even the most ardent re bear happy. Whether this will occur in BC & train towns is open for debate, for Sussex County it is in the cards.
May 6th, 2008 at 9:13 am
Patient, et al.
I take none of the jibes seriously. Imus was not out of line.
May 6th, 2008 at 10:45 am
Sales are very slow right now, the market still has more to concede. Occasionally a deal comes around that isn’t bad and is reasonable but that is the exception not the rule.
As for asbestos, it is nasty stuff very expensive to remove, pipes are the beginning. I wouldn’t be too worried about that, but more likely wall insulation(vermiculite), plaster, wallboard, etc. Things that can very easily become particulates thus being dangerous, expensive to remove and a likely health hazard at some point. Abestos tiles and pipe insulation is of much smaller concern and cheaper to remove. Remediation is extremely costly in any event, just another unknown cost in renovating an older building.
May 7th, 2008 at 6:17 pm
Hi guys I sold my house in Florida after nearly 17 months on the market!!!! I purchased it for 549,000 in 2005….2 months after purchase the market dropped like a bomb. I would have stayed and tried to hang on, but got a divorce..ouch. I ended up selling the house for 450,000 dollars. I received 1 offer in the 17 months!!!!!I lost 100,000 dollars on the deal but actually feel lucky. Take a peek at what’s going on down here and I think you’ll find it similar to the Jersey situation. P.S. The house was waterfront with 160 feet of seawall!!!! I thought I stole it for 549,000 back in the day…We are in big trouble here in Florida and no end in sight. I won’t buy again until I move out of this country.
May 14th, 2008 at 7:36 am
Realtor should show you research to back up any recommendations.I think it is a good time to buy.