Tue 6 May 2008
From Bloomberg:
Bernanke Urges Action to Slow Jump in U.S. Home Foreclosures
Federal Reserve Chairman Ben S. Bernanke, seeking to end the worst housing slump in a quarter century, urged the government and mortgage lenders to intensify their efforts to avoid home foreclosures.
Bernanke, in a speech in New York yesterday, also reiterated his call for lenders to forgive portions of mortgages for some struggling homeowners. He said proposals should be “tightly targeted” at borrowers at greatest risk of losing their properties, and avoid providing an incentive for defaults.
The Fed chief also backed the idea of having the Federal Housing Administration refinance troubled mortgages, a concept included in Democratic legislation in Congress, without explicitly endorsing the bill. His remarks indicate a gap with the Bush administration, which has preferred to rely on industry-led efforts.
“Realistic public- and private-sector policies must take into account the fact that traditional foreclosure-avoidance strategies may not always work well in the current environment,” Bernanke said in remarks to a Columbia Business School dinner.
…
As the housing recession deepened, officials in Washington have offered a number of different proposals. Foreclosure filings rose 57 percent in March from a year earlier, according to Irvine, California-based RealtyTrac Inc.“Conditions in mortgage markets remain quite difficult, and mortgage delinquencies have climbed steeply,” Bernanke said.
…
Bernanke did note that accelerating foreclosures may push home prices down further, hurting the broader economy and threatening the financial system. He anticipated the foreclosure rate will increase this year after such proceedings began on 1.5 million properties last year.A quarterly Fed survey yesterday showed the share of banks making it tougher for companies and consumers to borrow approached a record last month in the aftermath of the subprime mortgage collapse. The Senior Loan Officers’ Survey found a net 70 percent of banks increased their loan rates over their cost of funds.
…
Bernanke warned that “to be effective, such programs must be tightly targeted to borrowers at the highest risk of foreclosure.” Qualification guidelines could be set, such as identifying an amount of debt compared with income, or the extent to which the home value is below the mortgage amount, he indicated.“Finding the right balance — particularly the need to avoid programs that give borrowers who can make their payments an incentive to default — is difficult,” the Fed chairman said.
May 6th, 2008 at 5:52 am
From the Courier Post:
Water bill may rise 23 percent in 47 towns
With approximately 600 heads a week to wash at his Haddonfield beauty salon, Tony Scoleri is dreading the possibility of a 23 percent hike in water rates.
“First fuel, then food, now this. Things are spiraling out of control. How much profit do these monopolies have to make? If I passed a 23 percent increase onto my clients, I’d be out of business,” said Scoleri, a 35-year veteran of the business.
New Jersey American Water, a subsidiary of American Water, is petitioning the New Jersey Board of Public Utilities for a 23 percent rate increase to cover more than $350 million it has spent upgrading “facilities, infrastructure and water sources” since last year when it was granted a 12.5 percent increase.
“Even with the proposed increase, our customers will pay less than one penny per gallon for water service,” said John Bigelow, president of the water company.
Headquartered in Cherry Hill, New Jersey American Water is the largest, investor-owned water utility in the state with 2.6 million customers. It provides water in whole or part to 47 communities in Burlington, Camden and Gloucester counties.
If the increase is granted, the bill for the average residential customer using 21,000 gallons of water per quarter would rise from $106 to $146 in some areas, according to the company.
That increase pales by comparison to another pending by United Water Toms River, the state’s second largest provider. It is asking for a 93 percent hike, which would push a typical customer’s annual bill from $266 to $512 per year.
May 6th, 2008 at 5:53 am
From MarketWatch:
UBS to cut 5,500 jobs, sell assets to BlackRock fund
Troubled Swiss banking group UBS said Tuesday that it plans to cut 5,500 jobs and sell a $15 billion chunk of its risky mortgage assets to BlackRock Inc. as it reported a first-quarter loss broadly in line with an earlier warning.
May 6th, 2008 at 5:54 am
From the WSJ:
Swiss Reinsurance Net Profit Halves
On Further Subprime Write-Downs
By GORAN MIJUK
May 6, 2008 5:06 a.m.
ZURICH — Swiss Reinsurance Co. Tuesday reported a sharp drop in first-quarter net profit as the company was hurt by another hefty write-down on its subprime-linked investments and warned of more such losses for the second quarter.
The company said net profit for the three months to the end of March dropped 53% to 624 million Swiss francs ($594 million), from 1.33 billion francs a year earlier, missing forecasts of about 890 million francs.
…
The company said the drop in net profit was mainly due to additional mark-to-market losses of 819 million francs on structured credit default swaps, hedging instruments that were issued by Swiss Re and designed to protect investors from falling bond prices. As bonds fell during the U.S. subprime-mortgages crisis, Swiss Re had to partly cover the losses.
May 6th, 2008 at 6:01 am
From CNBC:
Layoffs Loom at Morgan Stanley, JPMorgan, Lehman
Wall Street is being hit by another wave layoffs, with Morgan Stanley, Lehman Brothers and JPMorgan Chase all set to axe staff in the near future.
…
Chief executives of major wall street firms tell CNBC that the unofficial head-count reduction on Wall Street overall is 10 percent per firm as a result of losses and declining business stemming from the disappearance, at least for now, of the once-lucrative structured finance business.
May 6th, 2008 at 6:06 am
From the NY Post:
FORECLOSURE FIX
NEW York’s foreclosure rate remains well below the national average. One in every 1,631 households here faced foreclosure in March, compared to one in 538 nationwide, reports RealtyTrac. But that good news may not last.
New York’s working- and middle-class real-estate markets only started seeing weakness during the second half of last year, city tax analysts say - more than a year later than much of the country. Citywide foreclosures were up 18 percent in March compared to a year ago, as some people who run into trouble paying their bills can’t refinance or sell as the market weakens.
And some New York neighborhoods are harder-hit. On Staten Island, foreclosures are up 103 percent over March 2007, driven by the poorer North Shore. Foreclosures in Queens are up 35 percent, driven by Jamaica and Hollis. And turmoil in Brooklyn neighborhoods such as East New York can’t be ignored.
May 6th, 2008 at 6:09 am
From the Courier Post:
‘Extreme Makeover’ house on the market
You, too, can own the Camden County star of “Extreme Makeover: Home Edition” — for a cool $499,900.
And you don’t even have to go on TV.
The 3,000-square-foot, four-bedroom house at 3723 Federal St. has appeared for sale this week, according to real estate documents obtained by the Courier-Post.
Construction workers and thousands of volunteers built the house in just six days last summer, a massive effort recorded for the national ABC program “Extreme Makeover: Home Edition.”
The project lifted Victor Marrero and his five sons from poverty into a spacious new home, complete with high ceilings, a sprinkler system and central air conditioning. They moved in last August.
But for reasons that remained unclear late Monday, the Marreros apparently plan to move out. The property listing says the house is available within 30 to 90 days.
…
“It’s a very nice house,” he said. “But it’s hard for people in some parts of Cherry Hill to sell a house for $499,900.”
Comparable listings are hard to find in the township. The next-most-expensive property is a three-bedroom home on Browning Road listed at $324,900.
…
But approval for a mortgage isn’t a guarantee the loan will be granted.
“It’s highly unlikely a buyer would ever be able to get a mortgage for this house because it’s priced so much above market value,” Howard said.
May 6th, 2008 at 6:23 am
From Bloomberg:
GMAC Buys Time for ResCap Unit as Threat of Bankruptcy Looms
GMAC LLC, the car and home lender struggling to avert bankruptcy for Residential Capital LLC, may keep the mortgage business afloat long enough to find a buyer or break it up.
ResCap, after recording $5.3 billion in losses over the past six quarters, said on May 2 that it is seeking a $3.5 billion loan from GMAC as part of a bigger financing agreement. Less than a month ago, GMAC provided a $750 million credit line.
“That doesn’t mean the business is necessarily coming back,” said Christopher Wolfe, an analyst at Fitch Ratings in New York, which downgraded GMAC and ResCap debt last week. “Rather than throw everything into a bankruptcy court and everyone scrambles for how to liquidate the assets, maybe you can sell certain assets or parts of the business.”
Unable to lend to subprime borrowers or bring in new business in Europe, ResCap reported an $859 million first-quarter loss last week, wiping out GMAC’s profit from its auto-finance business. GMAC is owned by General Motors Corp. and an investor group led by Cerberus Capital Management LP.
The subprime meltdown has forced more than 100 mortgage companies to suspend operations, close or sell themselves since the start of 2007. Lenders including New Century Financial Corp. and American Home Mortgage Investment Corp. have gone bankrupt, while Countrywide Financial Corp. agreed to be bought.
May 6th, 2008 at 6:36 am
From MarketWatch:
Euro-zone producer prices climb 5.7% in March
Producer prices in the euro zone rose 0.7% in March compared with February, or 5.7% year-on-year. Excluding energy, annualized prices rose 3.7%.
May 6th, 2008 at 6:39 am
From Bloomberg:
U.S. Home Slump Puts Owners `Underwater,’ Zillow Says
U.S. home values dropped 7.7 percent in the first quarter to the lowest in almost three years, according to estimates by Zillow.com, an online real estate data provider.
The decline is the biggest in 12 years of data compiled by Seattle-based Zillow.com, a Web site started in 2006 to provide owners, real estate agents and potential buyers with value assessments called “zestimates” for single-family homes, co- operative apartments and condominiums.
U.S. house prices dropped for the first time since the 1930s last year, discouraging buyers who fear being “underwater” on their mortgage, or owing more on their home than it’s worth. That’s already happened to almost 52 percent of homeowners who bought in 2006 when prices peaked, Zillow estimates. At the same time, record foreclosures are adding to a glut of unsold homes and driving prices down further.
“While the high rate of negative equity has little consequence to owners staying in their homes, it can be devastating to those who need to sell immediately or refinance,” Zillow Vice President of Data and Analytics Stan Humphries said in a statement released today. “The inability to secure refinancing is ultimately contributing to the growing rates of foreclosure in many parts of the country.”
About 30 percent of existing U.S. homes sold through 2009 will be foreclosures, according to an April 24 report by Lehman Brothers Holdings Inc. economists Michelle Meyer and Ethan Harris.
May 6th, 2008 at 6:52 am
Mike (from yesterday’s thread)-
Yes, the market will overshoot to the downside. Yes, BC and the train towns will end up taking a hit.
That’s part of the reason I’m not a fan of cheerleading (the bull or the bear kind). Every buyer has a different set of circumstances; it’s presumptuous to offer opinion when one has no knowledge of that person’s particular situation and needs.
Things are going to get bad enough without the assistance of cheerleaders for the Bear team. If this thing really veers off the tracks, the low prices many here hope for may be accompanied by a whole slew of broad economic consequences that make the most prudent and well-financed among us think twice before buying…at ANY price.
May 6th, 2008 at 6:59 am
GSMLS Crossed the 36K mark this morning.
May 6th, 2008 at 7:14 am
From MarketWatch:
D.R. Horton Q2 revenue $1.62 billion vs $2.62 billion
D.R. Horton Q2 loss $1.31 billion vs $51.7 million profit
D.R. Horton Q2 loss $4.14 per share vs 16 cent profit
May 6th, 2008 at 7:38 am
From MarketWatch:
Fannie Mae sets plans to raise $6 bln in new capital
Fannie Mae Q1 net loss $2.2 bln
Fannie Mae Q1 loss $2.57 a share vs 85-cent profit
Fannie Mae to cut dividend in Q3 to 25 cents a share
May 6th, 2008 at 7:42 am
Dick Armey on Squawk, blasting away at Bergabe, Fannie, gubmint…everybody and everything.
May 6th, 2008 at 7:44 am
From the NY Times via CNBC:
Will Fannie and Freddie Need Saving Soon?
As home prices continue their free fall and banks shy away from lending, Washington officials have increasingly relied on two giant mortgage companies — Fannie Mae and Freddie Mac — to keep the housing market afloat.
But with mortgage defaults and foreclosures rising, Bush administration officials, regulators and lawmakers are nervously asking whether these two companies, would-be saviors of the housing market, will soon need saving themselves.
The companies, which say fears that they might falter are baseless, have recently received broad new powers and billions of dollars of investing authority from the federal government. And as Wall Street all but abandons the mortgage business, Fannie Mae and Freddie Mac now overwhelmingly dominate it, handling more than 80 percent of all mortgages bought by investors in the first quarter of this year. That is more than double their market share in 2006.
But some financial experts worry that the companies are dangerously close to the edge, especially if home prices go through another steep decline. Their combined cushion of $83 billion — the capital that their regulator requires them to hold — underpins a colossal $5 trillion in debt and other financial commitments.
May 6th, 2008 at 7:46 am
“think twice before buying…at ANY price.”
Clot [10],
I’m knocking on that door.
May 6th, 2008 at 7:47 am
JB [15],
Our Northern Crock.
May 6th, 2008 at 7:49 am
BC (17)-
Too bad there are no Fannie/Freddie branches for us to queue up and have a good, old-fashioned bank run.
May 6th, 2008 at 7:52 am
grim (15)-
“The companies, which say fears that they might falter are baseless, have recently received broad new powers and billions of dollars of investing authority from the federal government.”
Sure. The heads of Fannie & Freddie already know how the endgame will play out. They are silently being prepped as bankruptcy/bailout vehicles. Can’t take your ‘07 vintage slop to the window? Package it up, and sell it to Fannie/Freddie.
May 6th, 2008 at 7:54 am
Of course, we know whose money goes to bail out these august institutions, both pillars of financial good sense and conservative underwriting.
[sarcasm off]
May 6th, 2008 at 8:00 am
Just give everybody a free house already!
May 6th, 2008 at 8:05 am
I can now turn off the TV for the rest of the day:
Santelli just called the Fed a charity organization.
May 6th, 2008 at 8:09 am
“Will Fannie and Freddie Need Saving Soon?”
Who advised me to sell my Freddie and Fannie puts 2 weeks ago? You own me some money today.
May 6th, 2008 at 8:12 am
With all the layoffs in the city, when is it going to affect NYC? So far I don’t see any impact on NY or NJ. RE prices have only moved a little if any, traffic is just as bad. Trains and buses are packed with people going to work just like before. Are the unemployed taking taking the trains, like in Japan?
May 6th, 2008 at 8:13 am
“May 6 (Bloomberg) — Crude oil may rise to between $150 and $200 a barrel within two years as growth in supply fails to keep pace with increased demand from developing nations, Goldman Sachs Group Inc. analysts led by Arjun N. Murti said in a report.”
“The core of our super-spike view has been that a lack of adequate supply growth coupled with price-insulated non-OECD demand growth” is leading to higher prices, the analysts said. That could result in a “sharp correction in oil demand,” the Goldman analysts said.
“There’s a fundamental misperception that so-called speculators are driving prices to unjustified levels, the Goldman analysts said. “Unfortunately, we do not think the energy crisis will be solved by finding and punishing the big bad speculator.”
http://www.bloomberg.com/apps/news?pid=20601087&sid=ayxRKcAZi630&refer=home
May 6th, 2008 at 8:14 am
#19,
Clotpoll, how about taking out a mortgage and defaulting on it, it’s better than a bank run, it’s bank over-run.
May 6th, 2008 at 8:16 am
“Santelli just called the Fed a charity organization.”
Clot,
That was a compliment.
May 6th, 2008 at 8:16 am
grim Says:
May 6th, 2008 at 6:01 am
From CNBC:
Layoffs Loom at Morgan Stanley, JPMorgan, Lehman
Wall Street is being hit by another wave layoffs, with Morgan Stanley, Lehman Brothers and JPMorgan Chase all set to axe staff in the near future.
…
Chief executives of major wall street firms tell CNBC that the unofficial head-count reduction on Wall Street overall is 10 percent per firm as a result of losses and declining business stemming from the disappearance, at least for now, of the once-lucrative structured finance business.
grim: From what I understand, the bulk of these jobs are located in SoCal, Caracas and Havana.
May 6th, 2008 at 8:20 am
ooops….
http://www.bloomberg.com/apps/news?pid=20601103&sid=adSiHtVyQXmc&refer=us
May 6th, 2008 at 8:30 am
“Realistic public- and private-sector policies must take into account the fact that traditional foreclosure-avoidance strategies may not always work well in the current environment,”
From the main article.
Add this to the list of hopeless traditional strategies.
May 6th, 2008 at 8:31 am
Sure. The heads of Fannie & Freddie already know how the endgame will play out. They are silently being prepped as bankruptcy/bailout vehicles.
Silently? This is screaming loud and clear..
Fannie Mae’s regulator agrees to reduce capital surplus
Fannie Mae’s federal regulator said on Tuesday it will reduce the company’s capital-surplus requirement to 15% from 20% when Fannie Mae completes a new capital-raising plan
May 6th, 2008 at 8:32 am
05/06 08:10 Homeowner Perception of Home Value Inches Closer to Reality in Q1 but Wide Gap Still Exists, According to Zillow.com(R) Q1 Homeowner Confidence Survey Despite Record-Breaking Value Declines in Q1, More Than 70 percent of Homeowners Believe their Home’s Value Increased or Stayed the Same in the Past Year; Yet Reality is: 75 Percent of U.S. Homes Decreased in Value
SEATTLE, May 6 /PRNewswire/ — Despite continued home value declines nationwide, U.S. homeowners remain bullish about their own home’s value. For the second consecutive quarter, homeowner perception about changes in their personal home value is markedly off from the reality, according to a recent Zillow(R) survey of homeowner confidence conducted by Harris Interactive(R).
(Logo: http://www.newscom.com/cgi-bin/prnh/20060503/ZILLOWLOGO ) Perception-Reality Gap Remains Wide
According to the survey, 72 percent of homeowners believe their home’s value has increased or stayed the same the past year. The reality is 75 percent of U.S. homes actually decreased in value from the same period a year ago, according to Zillow. In fact, in the first quarter home values dropped 7.7 percent year-over-year, which was the largest year-over-year decline in more than a decade, according to the Zillow Q1 Home Value Report released separately today. Since the confidence survey was first conducted last December, homeowners show signs they are moving closer to reality as 5 percent more respondents in Q1 said they think their home value has decreased in the past year compared to those surveyed in Q407.
Homeowners in the Northeast may have a better grasp on reality than those in other parts of the U.S. as 27 percent of Northeast homeowners believe their home increased in value in the last year, which was in line with the actual increase (26%). While more homeowners in the West believe their home has decreased in value (37%), it’s wildly off from the actual 85 percent of homes that declined in value in the last year.
May 6th, 2008 at 8:38 am
From Bloomberg:
U.S. April Business Bankruptcy Filings Increase 49%
U.S. business bankruptcy filings in April increased 49 percent from a year earlier, the biggest gain so far this year, as the slowing economy prompted more companies to shut down.
Business filings rose to 5,173 during the month, according to statistics compiled from court records by Jupiter eSources LLC in Oklahoma City. Total bankruptcy filings, including those by individuals, were up 31 percent from a year earlier to 93,096, the group said.
Signs of distress, such as bankruptcies and foreclosures, are rising as economic growth has slowed to its weakest pace since the last recession in 2001. The economy lost jobs in April for the fourth month in a row, for a total of 260,000 jobs cuts so far this year.
May 6th, 2008 at 8:40 am
#29 Chifi
That my friend is natural selection at its very finest. Classic line:
“From a business standpoint, this was the stupidest thing I ever did. But it was so easy.”
May 6th, 2008 at 8:43 am
#2 grim: UBS is also exiting the municipal bond business;confirmed this morning.
I have been predicting for months that 1 or 2 of the big players in munis would bag the business, and UBS (old Paine Weber) was a big, big player.
May 6th, 2008 at 8:44 am
3b,
I’ve heard the muni headcount at UBS is approximately 300, can you confirm?
May 6th, 2008 at 8:51 am
From the AP:
Fannie Mae loses $2.2B in 1Q; warns of “severe weakness”
Fannie Mae said Tuesday it lost $2.2 billion in the first quarter as home-loan delinquencies mounted and home prices declined more sharply than the mortgage finance company had expected.
The company said it expects “severe weakness” in the housing market to continue this year, bringing increased mortgage defaults and foreclosures.
Fannie Mae, the largest U.S. buyer and backer of home loans, said it would raise $6 billion by selling new stock. The company will cut its dividend, starting in the third quarter, to 25 cents a share, to generate around $390 million a year.
May 6th, 2008 at 8:52 am
#36 grim: the head count in NYC is over 500, plus muni operations in Weehawken,and at least 7 or 8 regional muni desks around the country.
They had some very well paid traders and sales people there, and for the most part there will be no place for these people to land.
It is a big loss for the muni business, but as I said, I am not surprised.
May 6th, 2008 at 8:54 am
From Chicago’s post #29:
Jerry Tao, a part-time lawyer and spokesman for Evofi One’s parent company, lost access to his $50,000 Countrywide line despite earning more than $500,000 last year and having a credit score he says was between 750 and 770.
Replacing Pathfinder
Though he never accessed the line, Tao, 40, said he’d hoped to redo his backyard and replace his 1995 Nissan Pathfinder.
Let me get this one clear: You made 500K+ last year, you won a house and YET YOU STILL NEED 50K Home equity???
Another one:
“If you had anything on the ball, you could make it happen in Vegas,” said real estate agent Donna Marie Gold, 62, who built a $4.5 million fortune buying and selling properties over six years.
After failing to complete a single sale last year, Gold said she fell $22,000 short each month on payments needed to maintain 14 properties. Now two to four months behind on some mortgage payments, she’s lost access to a $250,000 Wells Fargo & Co. equity credit line.
I thought she made 4.5 millions?? What Mortgage?? Why get HELOC???? Come on 14 properties even at 300K - is about 4.3 mil. She should be able to pay them off, right???
Great find Chifi.
Aftet looking at how messed-up economy is, and people are, I think I will rent that house I found - rent is 30% below comparable sqft apartments!!!
Bring on 15% interest rates!!!
May 6th, 2008 at 8:54 am
6
I remember watching them build that house and thinking what were they going to do if they ever need to sell it. There couldn’t be comparable home.
May 6th, 2008 at 9:00 am
The folks who say the housing market will stabilize anytime soon must be smoking some really strong stuff.”
- Dean Baker, co-director of the Center for Economic and Policy Research in Washington.
May 6th, 2008 at 9:04 am
Perception-Reality Gap Remains Wide
According to the survey, 72 percent of homeowners believe their home’s value has increased or stayed the same the past year. The reality is 75 percent of U.S. homes actually decreased in value from the same period a year ago, according to Zillow
I am currently seeing this first hand. an elderly (extended) family member is currently looking to seel/reverse mortgage/ HELOC their house to pay for nursing home care. her and her children are sure they can get 350+ because that was what someone offered2 years ago. The recent comps in the immediate area are between 230 to 280K and dropping fast, at least the ones that really want to sell.
May 6th, 2008 at 9:04 am
39….Darwinism…..pure and simple.
May 6th, 2008 at 9:11 am
The Way Our World Ends
by Patrick J. Buchanan
This is the way the world ends/Not with a bang but a whimper,” wrote T.S. Eliot in the closing couplet of “The Hollow Men.”
Eliot’s poem was written after the Great War of 1914-1918 had carried off 9 million soldiers, wounded twice as many more, brought down the Romanov, Hohenzollern and Habsburg empires, and ushered onto the world stage Lenin, Stalin, Mussolini and, soon, Adolf Hitler.
Readers have ascribed various meanings to Eliot’s words. One college professor of English suggested Eliot was looking back to the “whimper” in the cradle in Bethlehem that signaled the end of the old world, the Pax Romana, and the coming of the new Christian age.
Some saw it as the whimper of a man facing the executioner’s axe. Others say Eliot was referring to the middle-aged protagonist of “The Love Song of J. Alfred Prufrock,” who had “measured out my life with coffee spoons” and soon would “wear the bottoms of my trousers rolled.”
Recent reports suggest God has another end in store for us.
An Augusta, Ga., group, The National Policy Institute, has meshed the figures on fertility rates with the continents and races on Planet Earth — to visualize what the world will look like in 2060.
In 1950, whites were 28 percent of world population and Africans 9 percent, a ratio of three-to-one. In 2060, the ratio will remain the same. But the colors will be reversed. People of African ancestry will be 25 percent of the world’s population. People of European descent will have fallen to 9.8 percent.
More arresting is that the white population is shrinking not only in relative but in real terms. Two hundred million white people, one in every six on earth — a number equal to the entire population of France, Britain, Holland and Germany — will vanish by 2060.
The Caucasian race is going the way of the Mohicans.
Arabic peoples, 94 million at the birth of Israel in 1948, outnumbered seven to one by Europeans, will rise to 743 million in 2060, a tenfold increase, and will be 75 percent of the white population.
Fleshing out the NPI picture is the U.N. population survey of mid-2007 that points to the 21st century disappearance of Western Man.
By 2050, a fourth of all the people of Eastern Europe will have vanished. Ukraine will lose one-third of its population. Russia, 150 million at the breakup of the Soviet Union, 142 million today, will be down to 108 million. Such losses dwarf what Hitler and Stalin together did to these countries.
CIA Director Michael Hayden said this week that Russia will have to import workers from the Caucasus, Central Asia and China, exacerbating already serious racial and religious tensions in a nation with thousands of nuclear weapons.
With Russians east of the Urals outnumbered 100 to one by the Chinese, there is little doubt who will control the oil, gas, gold and timber of Siberia and be staring hungrily across the Bering Strait at Alaska.
By 2050, Iran’s population will have risen from today’s 71 million to 100 million. Pakistan will add 84 million to reach almost 300 million, the U.S. population today. Afghanistan’s population will triple from 27 million to 79 million. Iraq’s will go from 29 million to 62 million. The destinies of these nations will be beyond the capacity of an aging, dwindling, dying West to dictate.
The U.N. statistics, however, show the populations of Northern, Western and Southern Europe stabilizing or falling only slightly.
How can this be when only Iceland and Albania have fertility rates — 2.1 children per woman — that can stop population declines, and all the rest have birthrates that would put bears, birds and wolves on the endangered species list?
Answer: Western Europe’s populations are being sustained by immigrants from the Maghreb and Middle East, Asia and Africa — and the baby boom among these black and brown peoples is lifting and changing the face of the Old Continent forever. Islam is returning to Iberia, Italy and the Balkans. The Third World is coming to colonize the mother countries.
And America? According to the Pew Research Center, the Hispanic population of the United States will triple to 127 million by 2050, as Mexico’s population grows to 130 million. An erasure of the U.S. border, or merger of the two countries, or the linguistic, cultural and social annexation of the American Southwest by Mexico appears fated.
Yet, last October, in another Pew poll of 45,000 people in 47 countries, a majority in 46 expressed fear of a loss of their traditional culture.
Sixty-two percent of Americans told Pew we should do more to protect our way of life. Three-fourths of Americans wanted more restrictions on immigration. Yet all three presidential candidates voted amnesty for the 12 million to 20 million illegal aliens.
Hopefully, the peoples of Asia, Africa and the Middle East, who are about to inherit the earth as we pass away, will treat us better than our ancestors treated them in the five centuries that Western Man ruled the world.
Otherwise, we all go out with a bang.
May 6th, 2008 at 9:20 am
Essex,
population growth is the hot potato that no one is willing to touch. While china’s implementation of its birth control policy is certainly “sub optimal” global population growth needs to go negative for a while
May 6th, 2008 at 9:21 am
“Swiss Reinsurance Net Profit HalvesOn Further Subprime Write-Downs”
That CAN’T be true!!! bi and S&P said there would be no more writedowns!!!
May 6th, 2008 at 9:22 am
i will have to find the link, but someone has run some basic calculations that suggest that if you want the entire world to live a US/european lifestyle, then the world population should be no more then about 1 billion people. we are currently at about 6.8 billion….. whoops
May 6th, 2008 at 9:23 am
Here we go again…
Merrill Says Level 3 Assets Jump 70% in First Quarter (Update1)
http://www.bloomberg.com/apps/news?pid=20601110&sid=aXqAIBLZr6YM
May 6th, 2008 at 9:24 am
4 grim
“Wall Street is being hit by another wave layoffs, with Morgan Stanley, Lehman Brothers and JPMorgan Chase all set to axe staff in the near future”
That means “Wall Street” in the figurative, rather than literal, sense. The actual layoffs will all take place in California.
May 6th, 2008 at 9:25 am
Clot,
In case you missed it yesterday’s thread.
” You were missed” (-;
KL
May 6th, 2008 at 9:27 am
just got this in an office email
We will be visiting to share some great news about our home loans.
We’d like to let you know that, for a limited time, we will be offering an opportunity to lock in a low home equity rate of 3.99%. This introductory HELOC rate allows qualified Proponent members to enjoy affordable monthly payments and save money.
A Home Equity Line of Credit (HELOC) is a great way to:
Consolidate higher-interest credit card debt
Pay for home improvements
Pay for education costs and other large expenses over time.
May 6th, 2008 at 9:47 am
During my investment club meeting last week, our education segment was a loan officer from HSBC. It was very informative to know exactly how they qualify loan applicants. Everything was going really well until she started talking about HELOCs. I told her I don’t have one nor need one. She said that was silly and that I should open one because I might not be able to in the future if I needed one. I said that I heard that many who have them are getting them involuntarily shut down, especially those who do not use them. So once again, how will this help me?
One interesting tidbit she shared with us was that if you planned to buy a 2nd investment property, don’t go deduction crazy on the first property in the tax year return prior to planning to purchase the next property. This is a red flag as it shows that if you can’t make money off the first property, then how will you make money by adding a second. I hadn’t thought of that.
She did restate a lot of what was stated on this blog and said that you must be squeaky clean to get a loan today. Most of the loans she was approving were 10-15% down now.
One thing that was a little disturbing is that she said she was paid a salary but made a commission based on the size of the loan. Isn’t it strange to motivate a loan officer into putting people into larger loans when her other duty is to try not to put the bank at greater risk?
What do I know?
May 6th, 2008 at 9:53 am
#10 Clot,
Bingo. If prices drop another 30% I would be very concerned.
This bubble could burn us all.
May 6th, 2008 at 9:53 am
I would never take a loan out from HSBC. Ever.
May 6th, 2008 at 9:54 am
If Bergabe gets to bail out the FBs, what’s in it for those who are fiscally prudent? We get to foot the bill? Lovely.
May 6th, 2008 at 9:56 am
I don’t know about you but I feel a bit cheated. There we all were, led to believe by so many commentators that the sub-prime crisis was going to force the United States into a new era of dust bowls and breadlines, a slump that would call into question the very functioning of the capitalist system in the world’s largest economy. Carried away on the surging wave of their own economically dubious verbosity, the pundits even speculated that this unavoidable calamity might presage some 1930s-style global political cataclysm to match.
Well, it’s early days, to be fair, but so far the Great Depression 2008 is shaping up to be a Great Disappointment. Not so much The Grapes of Wrath as Raisins of Mild Inconvenience.
http://business.timesonline.co.uk/tol/business/columnists/article3876863.ece
May 6th, 2008 at 9:58 am
Bugabe is the manchurian candidate.
May 6th, 2008 at 10:00 am
56,
the great depression did not become full blown in the course of 6 months either! someone should check their history
May 6th, 2008 at 10:00 am
Pat Buchanan isn’t the first one to sound the population alarm bell. What the alarmists forget to consider is that future growth rates will most likely plummet in developing countries. Mexico’s growth rate has crashed along with large swaths of Latin America as their economies have opened up. Economic and educational opportunities for women is the only way to slow population growth - free birth control and voluntary sterilization programs have minimal impact. The immigrant populations in Europe breed like the locals after a generation or two. I wouldn’t worry about an Arab horde re-taking the Iberian peninsula or Chinese pouring into Siberia.
May 6th, 2008 at 10:03 am
some here might find this interesting
“Bad Money: Reckless Finance, Failed Politics, and the Global Crisis of American Capitalism”
Renowned political analyst Kevin Phillips argues successive administrations have imperiled the U.S. economy by a combination of short-sighted policies and a trend against regulation. These include unparalleled credit-card debts, the expansion of financial industries such as hedge funds, ballooning national debts, and deliberately altering statistics like inflation and unemployment to mask the accurate picture.
With the collapse of the housing market and the rise in oil prices, much attention has been paid to the question of whether the U.S. is in a recession. But is it possible the nation’s economic well-being is in even deeper financial straits? A new book by the renowned political analyst Kevin Phillips argues it is. Phillips says successive administrations have imperiled the U.S. by a combination of short-sighted policies and a trend against regulation. These include unparalleled credit-card debts, the expansion of financial industries such as hedge funds, ballooning national debts, and deliberately altering statistics like inflation and unemployment to mask the accurate picture.
A generation ago Phillips wrote “The Emerging Republican Majority” which Newsweek described as the “political bible of the Nixon administration.” Throughout the 1970s and 1980s Phillips was viewed as one of the GOP’s top theoreticians and electoral analysts. But today he’s considered one of the leading critics of U.S. political culture.
Kevin Phillips” latest book is “Bad Money: Reckless Finance, Failed Politics, and the Global Crisis of American Capitalism.” It’s the fourteenth volume in his series of reflections on U.S. political culture, following the bestseller “American Theocracy.” Kevin Phillips joins me now from Houston, Texas.
http://tinyurl.com/6ldl2h
May 6th, 2008 at 10:05 am
# 24 “Are the unemployed taking taking the trains, like in Japan?”
If things get bad enough, riding a train all night may become a cheap form of housing.
May 6th, 2008 at 10:09 am
# 39 “who built a $4.5 million fortune ”
Ahh, paper gains. Until the gain is realized, it does not exist.
May 6th, 2008 at 10:09 am
Jmac,
The color or ethnic make up of future populations is irrelevant to me personally. But there is a strong link between income/education and birth rate. the best case scenarios put humans leveling out at 9+ billion people in 30 - 50 years. You cannot support an significant % of that population at the american/european level of life style.
not to stray to far afield, but i understand you correctly Jmac then i disagree and suggest that population is a problem on a global scale
May 6th, 2008 at 10:10 am
25#, bob, if that is the case and it stays there for a period of time, i see WWIII is imminent. apparently oil market is not a free market. it is the case that have-countryies manipulate the market and take money from other countries. For example, the state tax on crude oil in russia is about $60 a barrel, which is at the price level of last summer.
May 6th, 2008 at 10:12 am
25 BC
“There’s a fundamental misperception that so-called speculators are driving prices to unjustified levels, the Goldman analysts said. “Unfortunately, we do not think the energy crisis will be solved by finding and punishing the big bad speculator.”
Housing, on the other hand….
May 6th, 2008 at 10:13 am
22 clot
“Santelli just called the Fed a charity organization.”
I have a crush on Rick.
May 6th, 2008 at 10:14 am
BC Bob 25
The bloomberg article left this out
“We believe the current energy crisis may be coming to a head, as a lack of adequate supply growth is becoming apparent and resulting in needed demand rationing in the OECD areas in particular the United States,” Goldman Sachs analysts said in a research note Monday.
cnn
http://tinyurl.com/42q4jp
May 6th, 2008 at 10:16 am
Bi 64
the resource wars have already started. see Iraq War II and the 14 planned permanent bases.
May 6th, 2008 at 10:18 am
# 53 “If prices drop another 30% I would be very concerned. This bubble could burn us all.”
All the more reason for those who have a home already to pay off the mortgage and for those who do not, to ait and accumulate capital (or to purchase raw land while waiting to buy a home).
For those of us who own our homes outright, the values can drop 90% and it will not affect anything other than our net-worth calculation.
May 6th, 2008 at 10:18 am
32 john
reminds me of the survey I once heard where 70% of Americans think they’re in the top 10% of drivers in terms of skill.
May 6th, 2008 at 10:20 am
Economic and educational opportunities for women is the only way to slow population growth - free birth control and voluntary sterilization programs have minimal impact.
how about involantary birth Control???
Just for fun: There are water-soluble heterocyclic compounts, intake of which leads to 100% male’s Sterilization…..
I was making one of thouse as my side-job in contract lab, to make some $ while in school…. I was wearing full body suit, respirator and triple gloves (probably unnessessary).
Just add couple of kilos to city water supply and you have you “population control”.
May 6th, 2008 at 10:23 am
The immigrant populations in Europe breed like the locals after a generation or two. I wouldn’t worry about an Arab horde re-taking the Iberian peninsula or Chinese pouring into Siberia.
Tell it to France. They are projected to have Muslim majority in just 15 years. And Muslims will not be politically correct to non-Muslims. In Koran crime against non-believer is not a crime.
May 6th, 2008 at 10:23 am
44 essex
Buchanan is wrong because, put politely, today’s demographic trajectories are unsustainable, and nowhere more so than in the areas Buchanan is most terrified of.
May 6th, 2008 at 10:27 am
53 bairen
“Bingo. If prices drop another 30% I would be very concerned.”
Maybe, but propping up housing prices is not a solution, despite Bergabe’s opinion.
May 6th, 2008 at 10:29 am
“25#, bob, if that is the case and it stays there for a period of time, i see WWIII is imminent.”
bi,
No disclaimer? I guess bi is a synonym?
May 6th, 2008 at 10:30 am
63 kettle
It’s been since ~1750, but at long last the Malthusian Scissors will close again.
May 6th, 2008 at 10:31 am
From Reuters:
Wachovia restates, nearly doubles loss
Wachovia Corp, the fourth-largest U.S. bank, on Tuesday nearly doubled its previously reported first-quarter loss because of a write-down on three contracts in a bank-owned life insurance portfolio.
The bank is now reporting a net loss available to common stockholders of $708 million, or 36 cents per share. On April 14, it reported a loss of $393 million, or 20 cents per share.
May 6th, 2008 at 10:42 am
Kettle,
Population isn’t the problem. The problem is carrying capacity. The earth could support the current population, perhaps more, if we lived a simpler, sustainable lifestyle … and by sustainable I don’t mean hybrid cars and organic blueberries flown in from Chile in the dead of winter to Whole Foods. I’m talking powerdown, low animal protein consumption existences with little fossil fuel use. We’ve artificially enhanced the earth’s carrying capacity with fossil fuel use (fertilizers and food transport) and we will inevitably return to a sustainable population base. The question is whether it’s a peaceful transition over a generation or two, or a violent one (which may also take a generation).
May 6th, 2008 at 10:43 am
NJ patient
Its interesting that most modern/popular economics is based on natural resources essentially being limitless and that supply/demand will adjust for any scarcity. I am not so sure that many people have thought that process all the way though to its logical conclusion. what happens when food/clean water/energy become to expensive. these resources are relatively inelastic. eating 1 meal a day instead of 3 is slightly different then buying a civic instead of a BMW. drinking contaminated water is slightly different then switching from Dom to sutter home
May 6th, 2008 at 11:04 am
78 Jmac, i disagree.
the current 6 billion person population is indeed sustainable as is 9 billion, assuming that we all live like tibetan monks. While i have nothing against tibetan monks, i do not wish to live like that. I would imagine that most people do not want to live like tibetan monks.
i agree that we need to reduce our consumption and our ecological footprint. but what is the point of maintaining a population that is forced to live a relatively meager lifestyle. Space programs, semi conductor research alternative energy development are all high intensity activities that require significant resources. unless we want to give up a certain level of technological development and then the only answer is a smaller population.
there are 2 choices. A large population with a very small resource availability per person, or a smaller population with a higher resources availability per person.
May 6th, 2008 at 11:09 am
“Space programs, semi conductor research alternative energy development”
In the past, we argued bull/bear sentiment regarding the bubble. It is obvious that has been put to bed.
May 6th, 2008 at 11:15 am
Rick Santelli Takes Down Jim Cramer
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=SGkrNJ19DSU
May 6th, 2008 at 11:16 am
‘there are 2 choices. ‘
This dilemma itself rests on an assumption about energy.
May 6th, 2008 at 11:17 am
everything, 83
please elborate
May 6th, 2008 at 11:17 am
i am illiterate today :(
i meant …
would everything is broken please elaborate
May 6th, 2008 at 11:18 am
Why is everyone blaming Oil?
Look at the rest of the commodities. Gold.Silver. Wheat. Rice. Corn. Meats. other metals.
They’re all up. Do you really think it’s supply and demand for all of them.
Everyone was saying last week that there is no shortgage of oil hence current prices are unsusatinable. What they fail to recognize is that while there is no shortgage of oil there is also no inventory buildup. It’s simply the market equilibrium where market uses up all the oil at the current price.
Look at housing. It’s expensive and overpriced at current level hence the glut of inventory.
This is purely the purchasing power of US Dollar.
Priced in Gold (my currency of choice) oil is actually flat. No increase.
Can we get up a site that asks for Bergabe’s resignation.
May 6th, 2008 at 11:18 am
BC Bob Says:
May 6th, 2008 at 11:09 am
“Space programs, semi conductor research alternative energy development”
In the past, we argued bull/bear sentiment regarding the bubble. It is obvious that has been put to bed
I find it quite funny as well - but it just shows that heated debates about housing, from two eyars ago, even early last year are now in the past.
it is general consensus,that there was a housing bubble of epic proportions not supported by fundamentals.
There is nothing to debate here.
What we can debate about is how will thouse fundamentalls come back to the market - will it be through inflation?? Through large price drops? Through deterioration of quality of lie (e.g we will only have income to pay mortgage and taxes buy food and gasoline).
No big screen TV’s and fancy vacation except for elite 1% of populationin USA.
So discussion is naturally shifts to issues like mass transit, oil prices and inflation, food availability.
May 6th, 2008 at 11:19 am
seems like this could backfire…
Chrysler also announced an offer that caps the price of gasoline at $2.99 a gallon for three years for people who buy or lease new vehicles from Wednesday through June 2. The offer is based on 12,000 miles of driving per year at the vehicle’s rated fuel economy.
Customers will get a card for buying gas that is linked to their own charge account, Chrysler said. The customer will be billed $2.99 a gallon, and Chrysler will pay the rest.
http://money.cnn.com/2008/05/06/news/companies/chrysler_jobs.ap/index.htm?cnn=yes
May 6th, 2008 at 11:19 am
The Earth’s capacity to feed billions more people that already exist is limitless as long as you can make a profit doing so.
If a severe lack of natural resources was an impediment to sustaining a doubling of the population every 50 years then New York City would not exist today. No iron is forged there, little electricity is produced and water is piped from 200 miles away. I would guess not a single calorie of food is grown within a 100 mile radius of NYC during the winter months but no one starves to death.
May 6th, 2008 at 11:21 am
The problem with population control is the US is helpless to do anything about it. Germany is trying a program where college educated employed professionals are giving incentives to have babies. In Germany the problem is the native born employed Germans were not having kids. They were the ones who can afford to raise them and send them off to college and turn them into tax paying citizens. The unemployed and the new influx or Muslins are intent on pumping out kids as they received benefits just for having kids. Welfare/dole people being incentized to have more kids who will also be on welfare is a nightmare, even worse when they are poor non German speaking people.
The US could never ever create a program to encourgage the US born college educated mcmansion crowd with three empty bedrooms to have children as it would set off a political firestorm. Instead the 21 year old girl in the projects with three kids from three different fathers is who we support with govt money.
May 6th, 2008 at 11:24 am
“Priced in Gold (my currency of choice) oil is actually flat. No increase.’
make [86],
From St Paddy’s Day, this is not true.
May 6th, 2008 at 11:27 am
Make money
Virtually all of the commodities are dependent to varying degrees on energy intensive processes. Oil equals energy so if energy supply is becoming constrained and hence more expensive then commodities become more expensive. The world economy can be modeled using thermodynamics. In thermodynamics, you must continually add energy to a system in order to maintain order in the system. If energy inputs into the system become reduced for whatever reason then you will not be able to maintain the current level of organization. Energy is THE root of economics whether it takes the form of oil, or a craftsman exerting his energy gained from food to create a product for sale.
I am not an economist , and no i did not stay at a holiday inn express last night either
May 6th, 2008 at 11:27 am
Koran [2.191] And kill them wherever you find them, and drive them out from whence they drove you out, and persecution is severer than slaughter, and do not fight with them at the Sacred Mosque until they fight with you in it, but if they do fight you, then slay them; such is the recompense of the unbelievers.
May 6th, 2008 at 11:27 am
So the Media is now on a Full Court Press for a bailout.
NY Times today.
“It’s not irrational to be thinking about a bailout,” said that person, who requested anonymity, fearing dismissal.
To keep profits aloft and meet affordable-housing goals set by Congress, the companies (Fannie and Freddie) began buying huge numbers of subprime and Alt-A mortgages, the highly profitable loans often taken out by low-income and riskier borrowers. By the end of last year, the companies had guaranteed or invested in $717 billion of subprime and Alt-A loans, up from almost none in 2000.
http://www.nytimes.com/2008/05/06/business/06fannie.html?_r=1&hp&oref=slogin
May 6th, 2008 at 11:27 am
Kettle,
That’s it! At the next GTG, we’ll have to have some old fashioned fisticuffs.
Our dilemma is that we’ve had a taste of what technology and a high-impact lifestyle is like, and truth be told, even our poor people live better than medieval royalty did. I don’t want to give it up either.
You’re right about the search for tech progress and alt. energy being resource intensive. We have a choice to use the remaining sources to sustain 70 mile commutes from McMansions to office parks, or try to find another way to life the life we enjoy in a sustainable fashion.
May 6th, 2008 at 11:31 am
91 bc,
It’s catching up. It ascually allowed me to buy some more so I’m very happy about that.
It won’t be long until we get to the $1,000 number and then beyond. You know that.
May 6th, 2008 at 11:32 am
“Chrysler also announced an offer that caps the price of gasoline at $2.99 a gallon for three years for people who buy or lease new vehicles from Wednesday through June 2.”
Buy from the manufacturer of your choice. Burn your cc to the limit, gas purchases, and just default. The fed is accepting AAA/Aaa bonds backed by cc receivables. This is much cheaper than $2.99 gas. In addition to this, currently, there is no provision for the fed to accept Chrysler’s. However, subject to change.
May 6th, 2008 at 11:33 am
r
The Earth’s capacity to feed billions more people that already exist is limitless as long as you can make a profit doing so.
may i introduce the concept of exponential growth?
Suppose someone puts a few bacteria in a petri dish at noon on Monday. Suppose further that the bacteria grow at a rate that causes their population to double every hour. Suppose finally that the growth is such that the petri dish is completely full of bacteria at noon on Wednesday.
Question: When is the petri dish half full?
Many people say Tuesday at noon — halfway between noon Monday and noon Wednesday. That’s linear thinking, and it’s incorrect. Since the population doubles each hour, the dish is half full just one hour before it’s full, i.e., at 11 AM on Wednesday. From noon Monday to 11 AM Wednesday, the bacteria have plenty of room to spare. No worries. Then wham!
What’s the point? When growth is exponential, or when powerful feedback loops are present, we can think everything’s going along fine until just before we hit the wall. Many of the problems that face us — problems of population growth, resource depletion, environmental degradation, political instability — involve exactly this kind of exponential growth caused by powerful feedback loops. If we don’t have an appropriate mental model of what that means, we’ll be complacent right up to the moment when we hit the wall — hard — and, like the king, lose everything.
It’s crucial that we overcome our linear bias. We’re living in a world of exponential growth, and our petri dish is filling rapidly.
May 6th, 2008 at 11:35 am
make [96],
I got back in on BS, I mean, BLS Friday. I won’t argue your $1,000 call.
May 6th, 2008 at 11:41 am
galgon Says:
May 6th, 2008 at 6:59 am
“GSMLS Crossed the 36K mark this morning.”
That’s over four months earlier than last year. Wow!
May 6th, 2008 at 11:53 am
Finished compiling the April GSMLS data, will be posted later in the day.
Inventory continues to grow at a consistent pace.
May 6th, 2008 at 11:53 am
Stu (52)-
“Isn’t it strange to motivate a loan officer into putting people into larger loans when her other duty is to try not to put the bank at greater risk?”
The idea here is that the underwriting process is a check to any potential excess. Nowdays, it is. Hell, it’s just like the old days.
However, 2001-07? Didn’t work so well.
May 6th, 2008 at 11:55 am
the great depression did not become full blown in the course of 6 months either! someone should check their history
Agree.
What most people don’t realize is that after the Dow crashed in 1929, it rallied by almost 50% over the next few months. The big banks of the day (many the same as today) did a lot of talking about stabilization, signs of improvement, credit conditions easing and a general recovery. The recovery was short-lived.
May 6th, 2008 at 11:55 am
Latest sign o’ trouble:
Get a mailing from Chase last night. Includes a $15 Circuit City card along with free 30 days credit protection program. Program is initiated when/if you use this card. Of course you need to cancel the program before the 30 days expire to avoid being billed $8 the next month.
So basically Chase is hoping that people will just look at the $15 Circuit City card and forget the rest while they bilk them of $8 a month and hope the customer never realizes they are being charged. Circuit City is hoping you’ll come in and spend at least double the $15, because $15 isn’t going to buy jack in their store.
That is what things have come to in this country.
May 6th, 2008 at 11:55 am
kl (50)-
Saw it. Thanks!!!
It’s nice to be missed.
That’s missed, not missing.
May 6th, 2008 at 12:02 pm
66 njpatient,
22 clot
“Santelli just called the Fed a charity organization.”
I have a crush on Rick.
Get in line!
May 6th, 2008 at 12:03 pm
“It’s nice to be missed.”
Clot,
What did your bookie say?
May 6th, 2008 at 12:06 pm
Seriously, Santelli is clearly the only employee on CNBC who is playing with a full deck. I imagine he’s banned from doing interviews with guests because he’d call the on their bs too much.
May 6th, 2008 at 12:09 pm
Kettle 92
I like it.
May 6th, 2008 at 12:11 pm
Al (87) had an interesting typo.
Rather than type quality of life, he erred and typed ‘quality of lie’.
I couldn’t help but think about how great the current DC administration is at delivering a high quality of lie.
May 6th, 2008 at 12:16 pm
stu 110 is that a new unit of measurement? for example:
Ben Bernanke’s QOL (Quality of Lie) reached an all time hight his week as he once again insisted that while inflation may see a slight increase in the next quarter the FED has it well under control and is closely monitoring the situation?
May 6th, 2008 at 12:19 pm
# 103 “The big banks of the day (many the same as today) did a lot of talking about stabilization, signs of improvement, credit conditions easing and a general recovery. The recovery was short-lived.”
The big problem then as now is that there are far too few people with the willingness to look beyond the surface and to conduct a thorough analysis of the fundamentals in order to make an accurate assessment of the economic situation.
It is a common failure in many aspects of our lives. People go and look at the used car and focus on the heated seats, the sound system, the shiny paint, and ignore the engine and transmission. People go into the McMansions and get wowed by the countertops, bathroom fixtures, etc. and fail to notice the flaws in the construction that really matter.
Every day we see upward blips in the market based on little more than hope that things are better now and will get back to normal. C’mon people, get back to spending more than you have.
The National government is tapped out. Most of the state governments are tapped out. A large number or cities and towns are tapped out. We have huge debts and future obligations hanging over those political entities.
On a personal level, the citizens of the United States are tapped out, over-extended, and facing rising prices they just cannot absorb. Nevertheless, there is a hope that if we wipe out massive amounts of mortgage debt things will get back to normal.
We cant get back to “normal” until we have some assets to borow against. Unless another bubble ignites RIGHT NOW, that is not likely to happen anytime soon.
Whatever “recovery” we currently have, it is not based on anything sustainable. The Next president may well walk away with a worse reputation than Hoover.
May 6th, 2008 at 12:20 pm
kettle [111],
The fed expects inflation to moderate in coming quarters.
May 6th, 2008 at 12:22 pm
# 113 Since they exclude food and energy, and price rises for those items are sucking away the income of people, and thus there will be less demand for other items, I suspect they are correct.
May 6th, 2008 at 12:22 pm
I am thinking of nominating Cramer as an inverse leading indicator. Whatever he is pushing, you should short, and buy whatever he is avoiding. Not literally, but I find Cramer has made a lot of awful calls lately.
In another shot at CNBC, Jack Bogle was on CNBC a couple of weeks ago (at least I think it was Bogle), and his investment advice was “don’t watch CNBC. It will make you stupid and poor.”
I don’t think he will be asked back.
May 6th, 2008 at 12:22 pm
sorry BC, thanks for the correction ;)
May 6th, 2008 at 12:23 pm
Re 102, didn’t the realtor push them into a house they couldn’t afford long before they got pushed into a mortgage they couldn’t afford.
May 6th, 2008 at 12:24 pm
Off topic but important, as a fight between the WH and the congress will affect the govrnment’s ability to deal with all issues, including the economy and housing:
House panel subpoenas top Cheney aide
By PAMELA HESS – 1 hour ago
WASHINGTON (AP) — The House Judiciary Committee voted Tuesday to compel a top aide to Vice President Dick Cheney to testify to the committee about the Bush administration’s interrogation practices.
David Addington, Cheney’s chief of staff, refused to testify without a subpoena. No date has been set for his appearance before Congress.
Addington is one of several lawyers believed to have played a key role in crafting the administration’s interrogation policies shortly after the Sept. 11 terrorist attacks, policies which some say amounted to torture.
John Yoo, the former Justice Department lawyer who wrote a now-repudiated memo allowing the harsh interrogations of military prisoners agreed late Monday to testify to Congress about those practices, averting a subpoena. Yoo is now a law professor at University of California-Berkeley.
Yoo’s memo, dated March 14, 2003, outlines a legal justification for military interrogators to use harsh tactics against al-Qaida and Taliban detainees overseas — so long as they did not specifically intend to torture their captives.
Former Attorney General John Ashcroft, former Under Secretary of Defense Douglas Feith, and former Assistant Attorney General Daniel Levin have also agreed to give testimony at a future hearing. Former CIA Director George Tenet is still in negotiations with the committee, according to House Judiciary Committee spokeswoman Melanie Roussell.
The Judiciary Committee hearings are meant to determine what role administration lawyers played in creating and approving interrogation procedures that went far beyond those traditionally used by U.S. forces, and whether any of them violated their legal or ethical obligations, said Committee Chairman John Conyers, D-Mich.
May 6th, 2008 at 12:24 pm
Oils at $122.30! Market rallies.
May 6th, 2008 at 12:24 pm
“Unless another bubble ignites RIGHT NOW, that is not likely to happen anytime soon.”
shore [112],
Present bubble;
Inventory
Foreclosures
Lies
Types of various collateral accepted
Not in any patricular order.
May 6th, 2008 at 12:26 pm
kettle1 Says:
May 6th, 2008 at 9:20 am
Essex,
“population growth is the hot potato that no one is willing to touch. While china’s implementation of its birth control policy is certainly “sub optimal” global population growth needs to go negative for a while”
Considering pollution has been shown to be reducing fertility in Asia, and we are currently using the food supply to run cars, I think population control will take care of itself to a surprising degree.
May 6th, 2008 at 12:26 pm
SO if i want a loan can i use my “Core Income” numbers where core income equals my actual net income added to what i could theoretically make (200K on wall st according to john). So if i make 100K my Core Income is actually 300K! and if i lose my job, my income is still 200K
May 6th, 2008 at 12:28 pm
From the Consumerist:
Countrywide Still Asking Consumers To Lie About Their Income
Countrywide would like you to believe that it put all that messy “predatory subprime lending” business behind it and is no longer coaching consumers to lie on their loan applications in order to qualify them for loans they can’t afford… but are they telling the truth about telling the truth? One woman who recently contacted Countrywide about refinancing her home told NPR that sketchy mortgage lending is alive and well at Countrywide.
“It was really every sleazy move in the book,” says NPR’s tipster, an economic analyst turned stay-at-home Mom who has owned several homes in the past and who is married to a mathematician.
NPR’s tipster says that when she told the Countrywide loan officer that her income was low because she was a stay at home mom, he told her that she could lie about husband’s income because he had “manager” in his job title.
May 6th, 2008 at 12:30 pm
123 Just think about what the captain of a sanitation engineering land expedition vehicke can get away with.
May 6th, 2008 at 12:31 pm
Shore Guy (112):
“The big problem then as now is that there are far too few people with the willingness to look beyond the surface and to conduct a thorough analysis of the fundamentals in order to make an accurate assessment of the economic situation.”
This is why I expect a very bad black ___day very, very soon. If you just open your eyes wide enough, you can see both factual and anecdotal evidence. I can’t believe the tightening of consumer credit has not killed the market yet. I do not doubt that it will, just as housing prices finally collapse in these parts. Patience is what I have a lot of.
May 6th, 2008 at 12:33 pm
121 lisoosh,
dieoff due to mass starvation and disease is not my personal preferred method for population reduction.
recent stats seems to show africa as one of the fastest growing populations. And the question is even if we see a significant population drop due to environmental factors will people as a species be smart enough not to drive our population right back up to a collapse level.
some population charts
http://tinyurl.com/sxncl
May 6th, 2008 at 12:35 pm
124
he probably makes 500K right?
May 6th, 2008 at 12:35 pm
April WARN notices released:
http://lwd.dol.state.nj.us/labor/lwdhome/warn/2008/04-08warn.html
COMPANY CITY EFFECTIVE
DATE
WORKFORCE
AFFECTED
COLUMBUS HOSPITAL
NEWARK
6/1/08
874
JPMORGAN CHASE
WOODCLIFF LAKE
5/18/08
42
JPMORGAN CHASE
WOODCLIFF LAKE
6/1/08
33
FIRST TRENTON INDEMNITY
MARLTON
8/29/08
113
MUHLENBERG MED. CTR.
PLAINFIELD
6/15/08
749
COLEMAN NATURAL FOODS
WILLIAMSTOWN
6/16/08
182
ACCOONA
JERSITY CITY
6/20/08
53
FIRST STUDENT
PISCATAWAY
6/30/08
80
FOOTSTAR
MAHWAH
6/28/08
221
CHR. HANSEN
MAHWAH
6/28/08
50
HAPAG-LLOYD
PISCATAWAY
6/30/08
138
HUDSON CATHOLIC H.S.
JERSEY CITY
6/30/08
42
May 6th, 2008 at 12:35 pm
89 r
I hardly know what to say….
Lordy.
May 6th, 2008 at 12:36 pm
# 125 Stu,
Although I would not like to take the losses myself, in the final analysis, a one-day 20% drop could be cathartic for the economy.
May 6th, 2008 at 12:38 pm
$200 oil?
If you multiply $3.50 retail gas by the percentage increase from $120/barrel to $200/barrel you get gas at about $5.80/gal.
Too simplistic, sure, but probably a ballpark.
I really have to wonder how $5.80 gas (in NJ, higher elsewhere) will effect house prices, utilities, and an eventual economic recovery.
LOL
May 6th, 2008 at 12:39 pm
“So if i make 100K my Core Income is actually 300K!’
kettle,
In addition to this, if you learn to type twice as fast [hedonics], your core income is now 600K.
May 6th, 2008 at 12:42 pm
twice shy,
$200 oil would be more like $8 - $10/gal due to transport cost of the fuel and due to the refinery aspect. As oil becomes more expensive it becomes harder for refineries to secure an adequate supply of oil to maintain maximum utilization. this is somewhat vague, but without writing a thesis here, i will leave it at that.
it could also go higher as there is already talk of rationing and once rationing starts things get ugly.
if you are really curious google Export land Model / Import land model
May 6th, 2008 at 12:44 pm
those layoff above look heavy.
two hospitals, i guess the demos did not work.
what no more money from Trenton?
May 6th, 2008 at 12:44 pm
It’s funny how Bergabe is concerned that a significant decline in housing prices will hurt many, and will impact the economy.
But at the same time fails to see, that a significant decline in house prices will stimulate new economic activity from those potential buyers on the saidelines.
May 6th, 2008 at 12:45 pm
# 131 People will pay. They might not go out to eat, they might not fly down to florida to golf, they might not do lots of things BUT THEY WILL PAY FOR GAS. There just is no other choice. Gasoline is like heroin to the residents of places like Jersey; it may be killing them, but they cannot stop using it or they will die, or at least feel like they are.
May 6th, 2008 at 12:46 pm
3b [135],
Are you talking about pant up demand?
May 6th, 2008 at 12:47 pm
112 shore
“The Next president may well walk away with a worse reputation than Hoover.”
As may the current one. It’s a twofer!!
May 6th, 2008 at 12:47 pm
YHOO; Oil is going to $200/barrel, should be interesting when it get’s to $400/barrel. Pundits will still say it’s in our interests.
Is an Egyptian from Egypt in North Africa, living in the USA, an Arab American or an African American? Where is the geographical boundary drawn in Africa? One has to wonder?
May 6th, 2008 at 12:47 pm
Presently, gas is very cheap.
May 6th, 2008 at 12:48 pm
113 BC
“The fed expects inflation to moderate in coming quarters.”
Yeah - it’ll moderate your wallet and be incoming on your hindquarters.
May 6th, 2008 at 12:51 pm
121 ’soosh.
Agree.
What’s new…
May 6th, 2008 at 12:51 pm
#125 Stu:I can’t believe the tightening of consumer credit has not killed the market yet.
It has nto killed the market yet, I too am surprised. However, it is starting to, otherwise there would not be all that inventory sitting out there.
There are those that are wating to buy, like the people here, but I would imagine there are those who want to buy now, but cannot becasue of the tightening standards.
Amazing as it sounds, I think there are a fair amoutn of people out there who have no idea that things have changed until they actually bid on a house, and then try to get a mtg.
May 6th, 2008 at 12:53 pm
“Patience is what I have a lot of.”
Me too. And Patients.
May 6th, 2008 at 12:55 pm
126 kettle
“And the question is even if we see a significant population drop due to environmental factors will people as a species be smart enough not to drive our population right back up to a collapse level.”
Malthus would say no.
May 6th, 2008 at 12:55 pm
I wonder what the current presidential candidates take on the energy and economic issues really are, not their public opinions. Do any of them think they will come out the other side of a presidential term without taking the heat for the economy and energy?
May 6th, 2008 at 12:55 pm
140. BC Bob Says:
May 6th, 2008 at 12:47 pm
Presently, gas is very cheap.
True, current Pundit projections indicate it needs to be $10/Gallon, to resolve supply issue. Luckily, Food and Fuel will not effect inflation numbers. Unfortunately, it will effect life.
May 6th, 2008 at 12:56 pm
#137 BC Bob Yep!! Did you see this morning UBS is closing its muni bond dept?
There will be at least one more big one to announce before the year is up IMO.
May 6th, 2008 at 12:57 pm
Can we stop referring to it as “Inventory” and begin referring to it as “Pant Up Supply”?
May 6th, 2008 at 12:57 pm
145 patient,
that is the next step in our development as a species. learning to behave intelligently instead of instinctually. will we survive the transition? we are the equivalent of a 16 yr old with the car keys to a ferrari
May 6th, 2008 at 12:58 pm
Gasoline is like heroin to the residents of places like Jersey; it may be killing them, but they cannot stop using it or they will die, or at least feel like they are.
Talked to another car salesman the other day about trading in my SUV for a tinycar ™. Got an even worse offer this time around.
2003 Nissan Pathfinder SE, 60k miles, excellent condition, brand new tires, brakes, 60k service, etc.
Edmunds Trade Price: $10,094
KBB Trade Price: $10,500
Dealer offer on trade in? $3,000.
Why bother trading it in? I might as well drive it until it dies. Gas savings will never recoup the depreciation loss.
Dealer told me not to bother trying to trade an SUV in, they don’t want them, and nobody is buying them. Dealer told me that he talks to half a dozen SUV owners a day.
May 6th, 2008 at 12:59 pm
kt
“we are the equivalent of a 16 yr old with the car keys to a ferrari”
And daddy’s BP card.
May 6th, 2008 at 1:02 pm
#102 clot: Welcome back. Are there really lenders out there still doing that? Today, still?
No lesson learned yet?
May 6th, 2008 at 1:02 pm
Classes
My Top-Tier
Law School Should
Have Offered as
Warnings About
the Profession.
BY E. NOAKES
- - - -
Cutting and Pasting Legal Lingo
Explaining Business Associations to the People Who Are Running Them
4 A.M. Word Processing and the Law
Ethics of Conspicuous Consumption
Forwarding E-mails: Theory and Practice: Seminar
Arbitrary-Deadline Negotiation Strategies
Crying Quietly: Clinic
Cutting and Pasting II: Plural to Singular
http://www.mcsweeneys.net/links/lists/16E.Noakes.html
May 6th, 2008 at 1:02 pm
The SUV bubble has burst.
May 6th, 2008 at 1:03 pm
these 2 graphs look similar dont they
http://tinyurl.com/4frjtz
May 6th, 2008 at 1:03 pm
“No lesson learned yet?”
Bergabe, Paulson, Frank and co are trying to create a lesson-free society, dontcha know.
May 6th, 2008 at 1:03 pm
http://tinyurl.com/4u6omq
May 6th, 2008 at 1:05 pm
kettle - is that disease v. population? Not sure I’m understanding.
May 6th, 2008 at 1:07 pm
Dealer told me that he talks to half a dozen SUV owners a day.
And most all of them flip out/storm out.
May 6th, 2008 at 1:08 pm
“Dealer told me that he talks to half a dozen SUV owners a day.
And most all of them flip out/storm out.”
Another case of “insulted by the offer.”
May 6th, 2008 at 1:09 pm
Grim:
Bankrate.com:
Trading in gas guzzler may cost you
http://biz.yahoo.com/brn/080502/25295.html?.v=1&.pf=family-home
May 6th, 2008 at 1:10 pm
patient
chart 1 shows a typical bacterial growth curve
chart 2 shows human growth where 0 equals 0AD and the y axis is the # of people in millions
both charts show exponential growth charateristics
May 6th, 2008 at 1:11 pm
Also said that Cadillac Escalade owners were the most cranky of the bunch.
Told me that his $3k offer on my truck was pretty good when you compare it to what they offer on Escalades from the same year. He said maybe $6-7k on the Escalade, even though it cost more than twice what my Pathfinder cost new.
May 6th, 2008 at 1:12 pm
CFU and OD are ways to measure bacterial growth,
OD is optical density and CFU is Colony Forming Units
May 6th, 2008 at 1:14 pm
this is what happens when a 16 year old takes the keys to his father’s Ferrari:
http://video.aol.com/video-detail/son-crashes-fathers-ferrari/1006685693
May 6th, 2008 at 1:14 pm
3b Says:
May 6th, 2008 at 12:56 pm
#137 BC Bob Yep!! Did you see this morning UBS is closing its muni bond dept?
There will be at least one more big one to announce before the year is up IMO.
3b: It’s not the same Weehawken and Stamford.
Weehawken is a small town outside of Monterrey Mexico in Juarez county.
Stamford is actually an auto dealership in Urbana IL. It is properly spelled “Stam Ford”.
May 6th, 2008 at 1:15 pm
[154] patient,
I actually offered to teach a similar course at my law school, though not quite so negative, and geared more toward jr. lawyer survival skills.
Was politely rejected.
May 6th, 2008 at 1:18 pm
http://cbs4.com/consumer/rents.condos.retal.2.715122.html?ref=patrick.net
rents are falling
May 6th, 2008 at 1:18 pm
There is a very complicated formula we use in modern finance to calculate the return…
http://www.bloomberg.com/apps/news?pid=20601103&sid=aSlb8pOZVOng&refer=us
[MV / Cost] - 1 = return
It took me several hours, plus a lot of CPU time, but I estimated -86%
May 6th, 2008 at 1:19 pm
#167 chgo: Thanks for a minute there I wrongly assumed they were in the NYC area.
Oh but can you tell me where there 1221 Ave of the Americas muni sales and trading desk is located?
I think it is Caracas right?
May 6th, 2008 at 1:22 pm
people actually BOUGHT new SUVs?!? I just assumed these were all leased…
Last december I paid $4k for my $38k new 1998 Jeep Grand Cherokee 5.9L. All the bells and whistles, sounds like thunder, goes like hell, and gets 11mpg.
Only driven ~50miles/week though so until a 100mpg car for
May 6th, 2008 at 1:23 pm
less than $20k comes out the Jeep will do jus fine.
May 6th, 2008 at 1:23 pm
I am in thesame situation… We have a nissan X-terra - bought it when lived in Denver, CO. having it here is just doesn’t make sense. But I can not trade it in as loss of about 7K on price will neglect any gasoline savings even at 6$/gallon.
May 6th, 2008 at 1:24 pm
and my wife does not work - so last year we put about 1800 miles on the SUV (in a year).
May 6th, 2008 at 1:25 pm
A loan to increase core income will work if you have no intention of paying that loan back.
The thing that amazes me is how come heating fuel and electricity is never mentioned as a problem in all these mcmansions. Try filling up a 1,000 gallon heating fuel tank at four bucks a gallon.
May 6th, 2008 at 1:29 pm
My wifestill have a 2005 GMC Employee Pricing Envoy XL that has been averaging 9.9 MPG since new. Their is a boat load of underwater 2005 employee pricing SUVs out there as those deals were if you bought them. But heck the 2004 and 2006 buyers of SUVs are even worse off as they paid full price new. At this rate the train parking lot will be filled with monster SUVS with one person in them and the wife’s will be driving kids around in shoeboxes. Who cares about gas milage when you only do 15 miles a week to the train. They better widen the spots.
May 6th, 2008 at 1:33 pm
From CNN/Money: