Thu 8 May 2008
From the WSJ:
Keeping Families Above Water
May 8, 2008; Page A2
The latest flash point in the debate over the nation’s bursting housing bubble is this: Since so many American houses are worth less than their mortgages, should the government do more to get lenders to settle for less than the full debt, even if it may cost taxpayers some money?
The White House and Treasury say “No!” House Financial Services Committee Chairman Barney Frank and other House Democrats, with the quiet backing of Federal Reserve Chairman Ben Bernanke, say “Yes!”
Of the 80 million houses in the U.S., about 55 million have mortgages. Of those, four million are behind on payments. Foreclosure proceedings were begun on about 1.5 million homes last year, up more than 50% from 2006. This year will be worse. The Treasury, according to presentations its officials have made recently, predicts house prices could fall another 10% to 15% before touching bottom.
Moody’s Economy.com estimates that one in roughly 12 American families with mortgages — four million in all — already owe more than the current value of their homes. They are said to be “underwater.” The firm predicts that by early 2009 nearly one in four, or 12 million, homeowners will be underwater. Most will continue to pay mortgages on time. Many won’t, and are at risk of losing their homes.
…
In ordinary times, a lender shouldn’t need prodding from the government to do what’s in its self-interest. But these aren’t ordinary times. The drop in home prices is pervasive, mortgage markets messy and complexities caused by turning mortgages into securities many. No one in Washington wants to help the “speculators” who bought homes they don’t live in or those who lent to them. And there’s broad agreement that those who bought more house than they’ll ever be able to afford are going to lose out. The debate revolves around the “preventable foreclosures.”
…
The White House condemns this as a “bailout” and says it won’t work. As the Treasury argued in a recent PowerPoint presentation: “Homeowners who can afford their mortgage but walk away because they are underwater are merely speculators.” (It’s a bit jarring to hear the Treasury vilifying people who are acting in their economic self-interest.) But if not for the widespread decline in house prices — “a relatively novel phenomenon,” Mr. Bernanke labels it — and the proliferation of no-money-down mortgages made with the acquiescence of regulators, these homeowners wouldn’t be underwater.
May 8th, 2008 at 6:09 am
From the WSJ:
Home-Appraisal Code May End Up in Court
By JAMES R. HAGERTY
May 8, 2008; Page A4
New York Attorney General Andrew Cuomo may face legal challenges to his effort to overhaul the way homes are appraised across the U.S. Such a case could help clarify how far state officials can go in setting public policy for the nation as a whole.
Earlier this year, Mr. Cuomo made an end run around federal regulators and Congress with a campaign against inflated home appraisals, which have contributed to the current wave of mortgage defaults. He threatened to sue government-sponsored mortgage investors Fannie Mae and Freddie Mac for allegedly failing to ensure that appraisers were shielded from pressure to pad their estimates. Appraisers have long maintained that many loan officers or brokers, whose pay depends on how many loans they complete, pressure them to come up with value estimates high enough to ensure approval of the loans.
In March, Fannie and Freddie, eager to avoid a legal battle, agreed with Mr. Cuomo on an appraisal code of conduct, which is due to take effect Jan. 1.
The plan has drawn fire from mortgage-industry groups and some federal regulators. Among other things, they say the code could raise costs for consumers and cause unnecessary disruption in the appraisal business.
Mr. Cuomo’s staff describes the code as an agreement between his office and the mortgage companies, backed by their main regulator, the Office of Federal Housing Enterprise Oversight. But Fannie and Freddie buy or guarantee the bulk of all U.S. home loans. So nearly all lenders would be bound by the code, making it a de facto national standard. Many people in the appraisal and mortgage industries are upset that Mr. Cuomo was able to rewrite the rules without giving Congress or federal banking regulators time to weigh in.
Unless Mr. Cuomo works with the industry to revise the code, “somebody out there is likely to file litigation,” says Steve O’Connor, a senior vice president at the Mortgage Bankers Association. Roy DeLoach, executive vice president of the National Association of Mortgage Brokers, says legal action against the planned code is “one option” his trade group will consider.
The mortgage brokers and others argue that the code of conduct is tantamount to federal regulation and so is subject to the U.S. Administrative Procedures Act. The act requires federal agencies seeking to make new rules to first publish a proposal and solicit public comments on it, says Raymond Natter, a lawyer at the Washington firm of Barnett Sivon & Natter.
May 8th, 2008 at 6:17 am
From Bloomberg:
U.S. Consumer Debt Rises More Than Forecast in March
U.S. consumer borrowing jumped more than double the amount economists forecast in March, indicating a slowing economy is forcing Americans to accumulate credit-card and other forms of debt.
Consumer credit increased by $15.3 billion for the month to $2.56 trillion, the biggest monthly rise since November, the Federal Reserve said today in Washington. In February, credit rose by $6.5 billion, previously reported as an increase of $5.2 billion. The Fed’s report doesn’t cover borrowing secured by real estate, such as home-equity loans.
Consumers are turning to credit cards after banks tightened standards for home-equity loans and other borrowing. The March figures brought U.S. consumer borrowing in the first quarter to $34 billion, the most since the first three months of 2001, when the economy entered its last official recession.
“Consumers are strapped as incomes are not keeping up with inflation and this is leading them to rely increasingly on credit to see them through the worst housing downturn since the Great Depression,” said Chris Rupkey, chief financial economist at Bank of Tokyo-Mitsubishi in New York. “The days of extracting cash from one’s home to spend on goods and services are long gone.”
Economists forecast an increase of $6 billion in consumer credit for March, according to the median of 34 estimates in a survey conducted by Bloomberg News.
May 8th, 2008 at 6:21 am
From Reuters:
US House opens debate on major housing rescue bill
The U.S. House of Representatives opened debate on Wednesday on a bill to create a $300 billion fund to save homeowners from foreclosure, but President George W. Bush threatened to veto it.
The sweeping legislation, which Bush argues is too costly and could delay a housing recovery, would also provide $15 billion to buy abandoned properties and offer a $7,500 tax credit to first-time home buyers.
A vote on the measure, which looks certain to pass the Democratic-controlled House, is expected on Thursday.
Its sponsors expect many Republicans will break with Bush and back the election-year measure because of voter concerns over falling home prices and mounting foreclosures.
“We have seen the perfect storm of stagnant wages, rising mortgage payments and decreased home values, all of which have led to a record level of delinquencies and foreclosures,” Rep. Carolyn Maloney of New York said in arguing for the bill.
May 8th, 2008 at 6:26 am
From the Boston Herald:
Foreclosure surge hits toney towns
The foreclosure crisis in Massachusetts has gone from bad to worse, with the number of homes seized by their lenders soaring in some of the state’s wealthiest towns, a new report finds.
Some of the state’s toniest locales, including Nantucket, Edgartown and Weston, have seen their foreclosure rates double over the past year, ForeclosuresMass.com finds.
…
Late to the foreclosure mess, the state’s elite communities are now fast catching up to their less affluent urban and suburban counterparts. Buyers who stretched to purchase a home or condo in the state’s ritzier ZIP codes are now struggling to pay their mortgages amid a weakening economy and the crash in real estate values.
“The foreclosure crisis really has no boundaries in Massachusetts,” said Jeremy Shapiro, president and co-founder of ForeclosuresMass.com. “Communities rich and poor, urban and suburban and rural are all being impacted.”
Leading the foreclosure pack, three of the four towns with triple-digit increases are in the top tier of the real estate market. Belmont, Oak Bluffs and Nahant have seen the number of distressed properties increase by 200 percent, 217 percent and 240 percent, respectively.
Several wealthy suburban towns also make the list of the 25 Bay State communities where foreclosure rates have doubled.
…
The downturn in the market and falling home prices have made it difficult for people to escape, even in wealthy communities, if there is a job loss or other setback, said Karl Case, a Wellesley College professor and real estate market expert. In a down market, the option of selling the house is no longer there.
“House prices are really the culprit,” Case said.
May 8th, 2008 at 6:28 am
From the NY Times:
Wave of Lawsuits Over Losses Could Hit a Wall
Finding someone to sue over losses in the mortgage market and the credit crisis is easy. Winning in court, lawyers say, will be hard.
Shareholders in big financial firms have accused UBS, Merrill Lynch, MBIA and Morgan Stanley, among others, of trying to hide their home loan problems, which later led to declines in their stock prices.
Institutional investors have sued investment firms, including UBS, saying that they were misled into buying risky securities that later fell sharply in value. And there are more possible defendants, like the rating agencies that were supposed to evaluate these mortgage securities and the accounting firms that audited these companies.
“The wave of litigation that we’ve seen, and certainly the current momentum, is going to eclipse what we saw out of the savings and loan crisis” of the early 1990s, said Jeff Nielsen, managing director at Navigant Consulting. “Some of those cases are still ongoing.”
A recent study by Navigant found that 170 lawsuits — 44 of which were securities suits — had been filed because of subprime mortgage losses in the first three months of this year, up from 89 in the last quarter of 2007.
May 8th, 2008 at 6:33 am
Wonderful.
How kind of the legislature to ask us to bend over, instead of telling us.
From the AP:
Senators weigh asking voters to back new water tax
New Jerseyans may get the chance to decide whether to tax their water use.
A Senate committee on Thursday is slated to hold a hearing on a proposed constitutional amendment that would dedicate the $150 million that would annually be raised from the water tax to farmland and open space preservation in the nation’s most densely populated state.
…
Sen. Bob Smith said the tax would charge 40 cents per 1,000 gallons of water usage, equating to $32 per year for the average household.
“And the most important thing is it happens only if the people of New Jersey say they want it,” said Smith, D-Middlesex. “This is not the Legislature imposing a tax.”
May 8th, 2008 at 6:33 am
(cont)
Senate Minority Leader Tom Kean Jr. said the current method of open space preservation, in which borrowed open space money is paid back through sales tax revenue, has worked well.
“I don’t see why raising taxes is always the first option for the Democratic Party,” said Kean, R-Union. “Rather than find a way to live within our means, the Democrats are looking at new ways to raise money and outsource their responsibilities.”
May 8th, 2008 at 7:20 am
From the Star Ledger:
NJ plans bond-market moves
New Jersey taxpayers this morning are scheduled to take another step toward the exit of the fractured bond market known as auction-rate securities.
…
New Jersey and other public borrowers have been scrambling since February to remove bonds from the auction-rate market, since the market was paralyzed by concerns about credit and the solvency of insurers who backed many of the bonds.
…
Since the collapse, the state’s interest payments on its $3.4 billion in auction rate holdings jumped by $1.8 million a week. Leaving the market has also been costly.
So far the state has paid underwriters, attorneys and other professionals more than $48.9 million to replace the auction rate debt with other types of loans, state records show.
May 8th, 2008 at 7:27 am
From Yahoo Finance:
Are Single-Income Households a Thing of the Past?
Is it possible for families to go from two incomes to one?
It’s something most households with two working parents and young children at home have contemplated at some point. More than 60 percent of families with children under age 18 had both parents employed outside the home in 2005-2006, according to the Bureau of Labor Statistics. That compares to less than a third of mothers in 1975.
…
The single-income family with two children in the early 1970s earned about $32,000 in inflation-adjusted dollars, compared to $73,000 for the dual-income family in the early 2000s.
Despite the higher income, today’s families save less and carry more debt: In 1970, the one-income family saved 11 percent of its take-home pay and allocated 1.4 percent of its annual income to pay revolving debt, such as credit cards. In 2005, the two-income family saved nothing, and allocated 15 percent of its annual income to revolving debt, according to Warren.
In other words, the two-income family spends everything — the second income, all of its annual savings — and has piled on debt. Where does the money go? Despite the sticker-shock that goes with buying a gallon of milk these days, they didn’t spend it on food, clothing, appliances, electronics, or automobiles — on an inflation-adjusted basis, those costs actually went down.
…
So is it possible to downscale to one income? It may be, for couples who are willing to make bold changes with their money and in their attitudes, says Judy Lawrence, a financial coach and author of “The Budget Kit.”
“You have to be willing to do some soul-searching about the things you’re going to change and let go of,” Lawrence says, adding that the stay-at-home parent takes on the additional job of planning ahead and investing the time to get the best deal. It’s going back to your true priorities, values and goals and saying ‘it’s the best choice for me, my family, and our future’ — not ‘we’ll be locked into a life of drudgery and we can’t do what we want to do.’”
May 8th, 2008 at 7:46 am
Who Has More Level 3 Assets Than Capital?
http://www.minyanville.com/articles/index.php?a=17068
May 8th, 2008 at 7:49 am
Grim, in the early 1970’s my Dad was paying about 11% of his net salary in housing with taxes.
May 8th, 2008 at 7:53 am
“The firm predicts that by early 2009 nearly one in four, or 12 million, homeowners will be underwater.”
Not to worry, the fed is steering the ship, ooopps, the submarine.
May 8th, 2008 at 7:56 am
“An Essex County judge has ordered the arrests of former New York Giant Bart Oates and former New Jersey Devil Ken Daneyko for their repeated failure to show up for depositions in a real-estate lawsuit, an attorney said yesterday.”
“Nagel said he represents Cary Heller, a Short Hills investor who loaned $300,000 to the two players and a third man, J. Michael Gallagher. The loan was made in September 2006 for a luxury hotel and condominium complex planned for Wildwood, he said.”
“Nagel said the players’ partnership, Pro Re Developers Wildwood 1, would have been among the developers in the project, but he said the project has not gotten off the ground. He said the three men failed to repay the loan as promised.”
http://www.nj.com/business/ledger/index.ssf?/base/business-9/1210221362159820.xml&coll=1
May 8th, 2008 at 7:58 am
Patient- previous thread
Sprechen Sie Deutsch?
May 8th, 2008 at 8:01 am
hehe [10],
Before long we’ll have rankings, top ten, similar to college basketball, RPI. Instead of strength of schedule, they’ll be ranked by strength of lies.
By the way, I thought Goldman was in the lead. Comforting that we are in the 9th inning?
May 8th, 2008 at 8:14 am
“May 8 (Bloomberg) — The European Central Bank kept interest rates at a six-year high today to fight inflation, even as the euro’s appreciation and fallout from the U.S. housing slump curb economic growth.”
“Inflation could stay at an elevated level for a longer time than previously forecast,” said David Kohl, deputy chief economist at Julius Baer Holding AG in Frankfurt. “There’s clearly a risk that the ECB will cut interest rates later than forecast and less aggressively.”
http://www.bloomberg.com/apps/news?pid=20601087&sid=a92BH6plfvas&refer=home
May 8th, 2008 at 8:20 am
BC,
I honestly wonder if any of the clowns claiming the “9th inning” ever watched a baseball game, much less ever played the game.
May 8th, 2008 at 8:22 am
hehe [17],
LOL. They probably wouldn’t know the difference between a blacbox and a box seat.
May 8th, 2008 at 8:32 am
I don’t think the complaint that people spend more on housing (to rent or buy) than our parents did is legitimate. Society has changed a lot in the past thirty years, such that food and goods have become much cheaper (compare to thirty years ago) now that everything is made in China. On the other hand services and things that can’t be made in China have become more expensive compared to thirty years ago. Mymoneyblog had an excellent post about this, see
http://www.mymoneyblog.com/archives/2008/05/the-coming-collapse-of-the-middle-class.html.
I consider it noteworthy that despite the outrageous cost of housing and living in the tri-state area, the median family likey spends a much smaller percent of its annual income on food and clothing than 30 and 50 years ago. Despite being a staunch “bubble believer” since late 2005, its possible that certain rules use to determine affordability are less relevant today simply because our consumption patterns have changed so dramatically since these “golden rules” were made.
May 8th, 2008 at 8:34 am
Re 9, “working moms” is like “baked alaska”, what a joke, 60% of women with children go to a job to avoid the large amount of work at home and to get a break and be a part time Mom just on nights and weekends rather than a full time Mom.
The stay at home mom can’t justify a new car every three years, maid, expensive vacations, take out, new “office’ clothes and baby sitting. Heck my “working moms” siblings were shocked that some people actually purchase pre-owned cars and actually groom their own pets! How repugent. Plus how could they survive in a three bedroom house with their two kids. OMG no empty bedrooms.
May 8th, 2008 at 8:37 am
re: claiming we are in the the “9th inning”.
The fact that they are using innings as a yardstick only leaves them room to hedge as usual.
Pretty soon we will be hearing “extra innings” and Nobody ever said this would not go into extra innings Bla, Bla, Bla.
factoid: Longest MLB game ever 26 innings.
factoid: Last housing bust prices in some areas too 10 years to recover not including inflation.
May 8th, 2008 at 8:38 am
From MarketWatch:
U.S. initial weekly jobless claims fall 18,000 to 365,000
U.S. continuing weekly jobless claims fall 10,000 to 3.02M
U.S. 4-week avg. initial claims up 2,500 to 367,000
U.S. 4-week avg. continuing claims up 16,750 to 3.00M
U.S. 4-week avg. continuing claims highest in 4 years
May 8th, 2008 at 8:38 am
The White House and Treasury say “No!” House Financial Services Committee Chairman Barney Frank and other House Democrats, with the quiet backing of Federal Reserve Chairman Ben Bernanke, say “Yes!”
Politics aside, for what it’s worth, Rich says “No!” too.
May 8th, 2008 at 8:39 am
http://www.bankrate.com/brm/calculators/personalfinance/spouse_income_calculator.asp
The should my spouse calculator would most likely throw 50% of working spouses (male or female) out of the workforce.
Sean great WSJ article on Dark Pools in todays paper.
MLS said yesterday that last month that have stats on home prices in Nassau County and Queens rose in Price!
May 8th, 2008 at 8:42 am
BC (18)-
John Henry, the most famous (and only?) quant/baseball guy, nearly destroyed his franchise by encouraging his manager to bring on the closer in the 6th inning.
Funny…when Pedro was gassed and needed to be pulled in the playoff game vs. the Yanks, Grady left him in. I always thought that move was part FU to Henry. Too bad it cost him his job.
Golden rule: he who has the gold, rules.
May 8th, 2008 at 8:42 am
Saks sales up 24%
JC Penney sales down 2%
Lower and middle classes be proud, you get your own recession.
May 8th, 2008 at 8:43 am
Ironically, John Henry has ended up experiencing more success in baseball than in running his investments.
May 8th, 2008 at 8:43 am
IMF’s Lipsky Says Inflation Back After Years of `Quiescence’
http://www.bloomberg.com/apps/news?pid=20601087&sid=atBllA3IbEyI&refer=home
IMF research indicates that if the dollar hadn’t fallen from 2002 to 2007, oil prices would be $25 a barrel lower.
Middle East and Asian countries that keep their currencies linked to the dollar are seeing inflation pressures worsen as a result, Lipsky said.
May 8th, 2008 at 8:45 am
BC (16)-
No inflation in US…persistent inflation in Europe.
Those Europeans can’t do anything right. :)
May 8th, 2008 at 8:48 am
Inflation never left, but it has changed.
Old Inflation
Inflation = Goods Inflation + Services Inflation + Wage Inflation
New Inflation
Inflation = Goods Inflation + Services Inflation
May 8th, 2008 at 8:49 am
Old inflation punished savers and folks on fixed incomes. New inflation punishes everyone through a lower quality of life.
May 8th, 2008 at 8:50 am
re: 30 (Grim)
Wage inflation is rampant in NJ, just ask the teachers, Cops and other civil service employees.
May 8th, 2008 at 8:52 am
grim (30)-
goods inflation + services inflation - lies = no problem
May 8th, 2008 at 8:54 am
Here’s the percentage of homes that are underwater on their mortgages based on when they were bought, according to Zillow:
2003 7%
2004 16%
2005 42%
2006 52%
2007 45%
May 8th, 2008 at 8:54 am
re: (26) Grim I heard sales at Victoria Secrets was down 5% as well. I guess women are now starting to shop at Target for
undergarments. :(
May 8th, 2008 at 8:58 am
# 4 “House prices are really the culprit”
Noooooo. The REAL culprit was “fog a mirror and get a loan” lending standards, which created “qualified” buyers, which increased demand and started the unsustainable upward spiral. The high prices are a symptom of an underlying problem and the drop in prices is an indication of healing. It is not unlike the ugly yellow, black, blue, and green splotch one gets on the skin after taking a big hit of one type or another; THAT is not the problem, it is an indication of healing. It is folly to try and stop echimosis and it is folly to try to stop the fall in home values. What are we going to do next, refuse to allow fly balls from descending to earth because they have come down from their highs?
May 8th, 2008 at 9:05 am
Lazear Sees No Recession for U.S. Economy
May 8 (WSJ) — The White House’s top economist said he’s confident the U.S. economy hasn’t dipped into recession, and expressed optimism that stimulus checks could bolster growth in the current quarter, earlier than expected.
“The data are pretty clear that we are not in a recession,” Council of Economic Advisers Chairman Edward Lazear told a meeting of editors and reporters from the Wall Street Journal and Dow Jones Newswires.
May 8th, 2008 at 9:07 am
# 35 I think the real decline there is that the company has largely abandoned its previous focus on women 30-50, in favor of the 15-25 set. Before, they focused on women who not only had mney to spend but had some motivation to find undergarments that would accentuate the positives and help keep the husband’s attention.
THe recent emphasis on the size 0 to size 4 set, who would look good in anything, left many women feeling like they could not buy anything there. The CEO recently acknowledged that the brand had strayed and that it hurt the bottom line. Much of the product is now lacking the alure and the quality workmanship that prompted women to buy the company’s products. When things tighten up, the younger set can walk away and find the cheap trashy stuff in numerous other outlets. The 30-50 set, on the other hand, would be willing to continue buying, but now has litle ability to do so because VS lacks the product.
May 8th, 2008 at 9:09 am
# 37 He sounds like a guy who went off and had a threesome with two hookers just outside Vegas saying to his wife, “Honestly honey, I have never been with a single other woman since we got maried. Not even on my trips to Vegas.”
May 8th, 2008 at 9:09 am
39 It may be technically true, but it is not honest.
May 8th, 2008 at 9:11 am
#37 John:The data are pretty clear that we are not in a recession.
I wonder what data he is talking about?
Must be the date we cannnot see.
May 8th, 2008 at 9:13 am
I wonder what data he is talking about?
Sales at Saks up 24%, what recession?
May 8th, 2008 at 9:17 am
From Bloomberg:
State Street Subprime Damages May Reach 12 Times Reserve Amount
State Street Corp., the largest money manager for institutions, may have to pay more than 12 times the $625 million it set aside for damages from lawsuits over losses from subprime-mortgage investments made for pension funds.
Prudential Financial Inc., the second-largest U.S. life insurer, is suing the Boston-based company on behalf of more than 200 retirement plans, alleging that State Street inappropriately invested their money in risky securities. Three other companies filed similar actions.
May 8th, 2008 at 9:17 am
http://www.newsday.com/news/opinion/ny-walt-babyboomers-blurb,0,1036393.blurb
If you are over 50 very funny. If not, not so funny.
May 8th, 2008 at 9:19 am
# 41 We have not had two consecutive quarters of negative growth. True enough, but the economy is in a fall. We may not have crashed yet but the oxygen masks have dropped from the passenger service unit and the flight attendants are telling everyone to put on the life vests and to put their heads down. The Administration just hopes the statistical evidence of a true recession does not come until after election day, so they can blame the next administration.
May 8th, 2008 at 9:22 am
Businessweek article,
Your house is so underwater you need a submarine to get in the front door
Here’s what Zillow.com, the real estate website, says today: “Of homeowners nationwide who purchased when U.S. home values peaked in 2006, one out of every two (51.6%) now owes more on their mortgage than their home is currently worth.”
You’re in better shape if you bought before or after the 2006 peak in prices. Here’s the percentage of homes that are underwater on their mortgages based on when they were bought, according to Zillow:
2003 7%
2004 16%
2005 42%
2006 52%
2007 45%
Las Vegas may look dry, but from the point of view of homeowners, it’s deep underwater. Zillow says that buyers in 2006 posted a median downpayment of just 2%, and since then, home values have fallen 25 percent year-over-year, so 89.9% of homeowners now owe more than their home is worth.
Stockton, Calif., is worse: 95.8%. No wonder it’s known (unofficially of course) as the Foreclosure Capital of the U.S.A.
May 8th, 2008 at 9:24 am
“I wonder what data he is talking about?”
Employment- Birth/Death
GDP- Inventory growth
Consumer Spending- Up with inflation.
It’s a sunny day.
May 8th, 2008 at 9:24 am
Repost from late yesterday: Zillow report for NY-NJ MSA
http://www.zillow.com/quarterlies/QuarterlyThumbs.htm?msa=New+York+Northern+New+Jersey+Long+Island+NY
# SG Says:
In NY-NJ MSA Area, number of home buyers with Negative equity, (approx numbers below)
2005 Q2 - 15%
2005 Q3 - 25%
2005 Q4 - 30%
2006 Q1 - 30%
2006 Q2 - 32%
2006 Q3 - 32%
2006 Q4 - 35%
2007 Q1 - 35%
2007 Q2 - 32%
2007 Q3 - 30%
2008 Q4 - 25%
2008 Q1 - 30%
I think those are very conservative numbers as well as they are probably based on Zestimate. I have found zestimate give much higher value than what houses have sold in last few months
May 8th, 2008 at 9:27 am
32…
Wage inflation is rampant in NJ, just ask the teachers, Cops and other civil service employees.
——————————————
Or hedge fund managers……
May 8th, 2008 at 9:28 am
The richest hedge fund managers keep getting richer — fast. To make it into the top 25 of Alpha’s list, the industry standard for hedge fund pay, a manager needed to earn at least $360 million last year, more than 18 times the amount in 2002. The median American family, by contrast, earned $60,500 last year.
May 8th, 2008 at 9:29 am
I would venture to guess most teachers, police, and civil servants are making the median income.
May 8th, 2008 at 9:32 am
Believe It: Condo Sales Slow
By MICHAEL STOLER, Special to the NYSun | May 8, 2008
Very little correct information is being floated about the state of the New York City condominium marketplace. The glossy, full-page advertisements for luxury condominiums that are liberally sprinkled throughout local publications project strong sales, while the regular quarterly reports on the state of the local market suggest the city has been relatively immune to the real estate downturn that has crippled other cities.
In reality, nervousness about the economy, falling consumer confidence, and the rising cost of commodities are slowing sales of residential condominiums in Manhattan, the other boroughs, and the suburban communities.
“The truth is that people can’t take the truth,” the president of RAL Cos., Robert Levine, said.
Mr. Levine blames press coverage for creating an atmosphere of nervousness that is slowing the sales. He said smart buyers would see opportunity today, and make purchases on properties with good intrinsic value.
“The truth is that the principles and pricing of good real estate and the intrinsic values prevail. The truth is that the press has created an atmosphere of fear without basis. We are not talking about subprime real estate, we are talking about New York City and if the developer has priced his property appropriately there are interested buyers and sales. Although the impact of the press has certainly impacted velocity,” Mr. Levine said. “Yes, there is a slowdown in sales. Yes, the buyers need more time to make a decision. And yes, if you are qualified to buy there are mortgage opportunities at good rates and for properties that are complete or nearing completion, it is a good time to buy.”
He continued: “There is no clear answer to sales — one week nothing happens on the Upper East Side, and the next you sell three units. One week Chelsea is standing-room-only at an open house, and the next week three couples show up. Overall, the buyers are still there, but they are taking two to three visits if they decide to buy, and they are comparing products. There are those properties that have pricing the result of developers overpaying for land, and higher construction costs that will have to realize that their pricing is too high. But its not the pricing, its the abundance of product, and again the atmosphere created by the press.
“I am still optimistic! But then again I am a developer!” Mr. Levine said.
“It’s strange that the stock market is reacting as though the worst is behind us,” the president of Beck Street Capital, Kevin Comer, said. “For those who remember what a real estate cycle looks like, this one hasn’t even started down the hill. This cycle looks to be a textbook repeat of the late 1980s. At the worst possible time, while the equity markets are saying things are improving, the lending community has completely shut off capital. This will have the effect of snowballing property values over a cliff if liquidity isn’t restored in the very near future.”
He added: “As transaction volume dries up, and liquidity remains nonexistent, property values will fall, and banks will begin foreclosures. The kid gloves will come off, and it won’t matter if you own property at Fifth Avenue and 58th Street or Williamsburg, the banks will be brutal as they all struggle to survive and avoid Bear Stearns fate. The busted condo deals will be the first to fall given their short term financing. This scenario is now being played out in markets around the country; we’ve just avoided it to date in New York City.
“If a condominium project has been on the market for over 12 months, and there remains units to sell, then those units need to be re-priced as rentals until the next cycle. Until this has happened, the market won’t find a bottom. This doesn’t mean that there won’t be successful condominium projects still completed that sell out at luxury price points, but marginal projects will not be successful in this market,” Mr. Comer said.
A senior executive for sales of condominium at a national sales brokerage firm, who asked not to be identified, said, “Anyone who tells you the market today is doing great is flat-out lying.”
The broker added: “Every buyer coming in today is looking for a deal, and they are getting more brazen about given embarrassingly lowball offers. The more times they come in to view the property, the lower the offers seem to get. With this said, properties that are priced well — with room for some negotiations — are moving at a fair clip. Anything perceived as overpriced by the buyer is sitting on the market because the ball is squarely in the buyer’s court, and there is little to no urgency in the market.
“There are many people on the sidelines that want to buy, but are being cautious. Traffic at our sales offices in general is healthy, but the buyers are taking a much longer time to make decisions. The smart position in the market today for a developer is to remain flexible. Nobody can predict with certainty what around the corner, but I’m of the mind that it’s better to take a little off the price now, than a lot off the price later and keep moving your inventory. If the developer insists on remaining inflexible on sales price, they will be in a stalemate with the buyers,” the broker said.
A local developer who asked not to be identified said certain markets “are flooded with product. Buyers are aware of this and are negotiating hard and really taking their time in making decisions, and consequently, sales are slow.
“When a new building hits the market, there are a bunch of early sales during the initial buzz period from friends and family and the interest list, but then sales slow down rather quickly,” the developer said.
“It is clear that we are experiencing a change in the overall state of the real estate market,” the president of Citi Habitats, Gary Malin, said. “One change that is apparent is that even though the volume of transactions is off of the 2007 peak, prices of properties continue to increase in the first quarter of 2008. By no means, however, has business dried up. In fact, properly priced apartments are, at times, leading to bidding wars. I think that some market changes are to be expected given the economic conditions currently eroding consumer confidence, such as increases in the cost of oil, gasoline, food, etc., as well as an uncertain job market and the increase in the foreclosure rate as a result of the subprime market.”
The president of Troutbrook Companies, Marc Freud, said that in general, “the volatile market means that sellers are ready to negotiate off of sales prices. The malaise of the housing crisis is still with us, and buyers are very cautious.”
The president of Winter Financial, Gregg Winter, said, “Without question units in ‘b’ locations of the New York City condominium market, like parts of Queens and further reaches of Brooklyn, are moving slowly, even though well-qualified buyers can make very good deals right now with developers and can still get excellent mortgages at low rates.”
He added: “For the moment, developers who have slow unit sales are paying for some of the closing costs and or taking single digit discounts on pricing to execute the transactions. Sponsors are acutely aware that there are limited sources of debt available today to take out their existing condo construction loan.”
A local developer in Brooklyn who asked not to be identified said: “My project in downtown Brooklyn had consistent sales up until the third week in March. Since that date, the offers have slowed down and the quality of the offer has decreased. The amount of foot traffic of purchasers to open houses has decreased. In order to sell units we are now paying transfer tax, attorney fees, and other closing costs which amount to approximately a 4 to 5% discount.”
The president of the City Investment Fund, Thomas Lydon, said the pace of sales “has definitely slowed in Manhattan. No price concessions of major proportion as of yet, but definitely a willingness to negotiate transfer taxes, brokerage, etc, on higher priced units.
“Everyone knows there are fewer ‘real’ buyers in the market, and the smart owners are being flexible to capture every prospect,” Mr. Lydon said. “I can speak directly to the townhouse market in Greenwich Village area. Prices for properties, both renovated and unrenovated, were very strong the past two years. Prices rose over 10% both years, with properties selling between $2,000 and $3,000 a square foot, depending upon location and condition of property. Buyers are much more conservative this spring, making offers substantially below asking prices for unrenovated properties. Expect to see comparables dropping from previous highs, but still at substantial nominal dollars.”
Many real estate experts are still bullish on the overall condominium marketplace.
“In our Williamsburg development, the 575 market rate condominiums in our first phase of the Edge, we have entered into 65 contracts during the first 30 days of marketing,” the chairman of Douglaston Development, Jeffrey Levine, said. “
Mr. Winter said, “In the unique and peculiar algebra of New York City condominium sales, smaller projects in Manhattan which offer something unique and special to the marketplace are still selling and will continue to sell. The modest, outlying units in the boroughs may be sitting there for a moment, but the Manhattan projects with both sizzle and substance still seem to be selling.”
Mr. Freud said, “Overall buyer sentiment has improved from the beginning of the year. Bidding contests have not totally left the marketplace.”
The principal of Essex Capital Partners, Mitchell Rutter, said: “This past weekend I attended a grand opening in Williamsburg located in a section which is called the North Fourth; at the corner of Fourth Street and Driggs Avenue. Approximately 70 people were in attendance and according to the sponsor; four of the initial 20 units listed for sale were sold. Even with prices in the range of $750 per square foot, there seems to be many potential buyers undeterred by the current economy.
“Sales activity remains strong in Park Slope section of Brooklyn. For example, the Argyle Condominium located on the west side of Fourth Avenue, which many consider the wrong side of the street, and is not in the preferred school district has a sales office on Fifth Avenue has had steady and consistent sales,” Mr. Rutter said. “The average sales price per square foot is $740, and about 60% of the units have been sold with the building’s steel still in process. Another sign of the frothy Park Slope market is that these sales have occurred from floor plans and not from walking the actual units.”
It looks like some difficult times are ahead for the New York City condominium market place. As Mr. Freud said: “Condominiums that are well-executed and in stable neighborhoods are selling at a brisk pace.” One must concur with Kevin Comer when he says that for a project to be successful in this market, it has to have a truly great design, a great location, and a reasonable price. “Now more than ever its location, location and location. Long term, real estate remains a great place to invest capital, especially in New York City, and we are headed for one of the best buying opportunities of my lifetime,” he said.
May 8th, 2008 at 9:33 am
I’m wondering what kind of fairy dust will be required to run an economy that consists of nothing but teachers, police, civil servants and legislators.
May 8th, 2008 at 9:36 am
Just to get on a little diatribe on why I hate dealing with realtors. I find a bank owned POS cape through a GSMLS search a couple of days ago. Looks OK, perfect lowball opportunity and is the style the wife and I have looked at in the past. So I email the realtor through his website asking for information about the house. Basically, the address, condition and how long the house was back in the bank’s possession. Sales being down I figured I would get a quick reply. 2 days go by nothing. This is what I find in my inbox this morning.
Dear XXXX,
Thank you for your interest in our current listings. Spring is here and it is a great time to buy. (Ugghh, I guess if canaries can’t change there tune why would a realtor) I am unable to email you the requested information but I would be happy to speak with you by phone (if I wanted to speak with you I would have called the number on your website). Call me at XXXXXXX and I will be happy to schedule an appointment at the requested listing and show you some other great listings in the area.
Sincerely,
XXXXX
All I wanted was basic information nothing more nothing less why is that so difficult for him to understand. I would rather not waste my time and his if the house is in an undesirable location (proximity to highway, school, Etc), or if I think the loan amount is so exorbitant the bank won’t consider an offer. You would think the guy would like to make a potential sale. With the exception of Clot and some of the other realtors who post on this site, I hope the ramen tastes good schmuck!
May 8th, 2008 at 9:37 am
JB[53],
Easy. An economy marked to a model.
May 8th, 2008 at 9:39 am
I’m not sure that Mother Jersey has enough central planners to work that black box.
May 8th, 2008 at 9:52 am
#42, Grim,
I wonder how long it is going to take the decline in consumer spending to reach northern NJ. I have been to the short hills mall a number of times over the past few months and people are shopping. It is mobbed on the weekends and during the day it is filled with stroller pushing moms and the after school crowd with their kids. And people are not just window shopping as someone on the board once declared. They have their hands full of shopping bags. And they’re buying clothes, and pottery barn items and the restaurants in the mall have hour long wait lines at lunch time. So it hasn’t hit here yet.
On the other hand, interesting anecdote, was browsing the italian designer shoes at neiman marcus (not that I can afford it), the $500+ pair and most of the women buying were not speaking english. The salesman told me their customers are mostly russians from brooklyn, and south americans.
May 8th, 2008 at 9:54 am
Jobless claims fall sharply, except in New Jersey.
Jobless claims post sharp decline
The number of newly laid off workers seeking unemployment benefits dropped much more than expected last week.
The Labor Department reported Thursday that applications for unemployment benefits fell to 365,000, a decline of 18,000 from the previous week. Economists had been looking for a much smaller decrease of around 5,000.
…
For the week ending April 26, 32 states and territories had a drop in initial claims while 21 had increases.
The biggest increase was in Massachusetts, a rise of 5,591 that was attributed to higher layoffs in transportation, services and public administration.
Other states with big increases were New York, up 4,648; Kentucky, up 3,776, and New Jersey, up 3,521.
May 8th, 2008 at 9:54 am
Wage inflation is rampant in NJ, just ask the teachers, Cops and other civil service employees.
Private sector employees get paid based on market forces; supply and demand in a world flooded with cheap overseas labor. This labor pool is increasingly accessible as trade barriers fall and is growing increasingly sophisticated, competing for “better and better” jobs.
Market forces don’t play a role in NJ public sector pay. They get paid based on the strength of the union and the impotence of those on the other side of the negotiating table. They argue, and are mostly successful, to get paid based on the cost of living in NJ.
May 8th, 2008 at 9:56 am
From the Department of Labor:
http://www.dol.gov/opa/media/press/eta/ui/current.htm
NJ
+3,521
Layoffs in the transportation, warehousing, and service industries.
May 8th, 2008 at 9:59 am
Painhrtz [54],
I feel your pain (no pun intended..lol). The incessant sales pitch is nauseating. Find another way to go around the idiot.
May 8th, 2008 at 10:01 am
“Frustrated owners try to unload their guzzlers”
“The SUV craze was a bubble and now it is bursting,” said George Hoffer, an economics professor at Virginia Commonwealth University whose research focuses on the automotive industry. “It’s an irrational vehicle. It’ll never come back.”
http://www.boston.com/news/local/massachusetts/articles/2008/05/06/frustrated_owners_try_to_unload_their_guzzlers/
May 8th, 2008 at 10:03 am
59….Market forces don’t play a role in NJ public sector pay
——————————————–
In times of economic expansion or booming job growth….the recruitment of lower paying paublic sector jobs is much more difficult.
May 8th, 2008 at 10:03 am
All this talk about inflated wages. Don’t forget we pay overinflated taxes that go into the public servants overinflated benefits that go into the hedge fund managers overinflated compensation to generate outsized returns (that’s 1-2% more annually).
Someone please rationalize this. I can not.
May 8th, 2008 at 10:03 am
Hehehe (10),
I wonder what kind of level 3 assets Northwest Air has.
May 8th, 2008 at 10:07 am
In Vegas, recruiting teachers is a ruthless art
By Steve Friess | Special to The Christian Science Monitor
LAS VEGAS –
A secretary races into George Ann Rice’s office, apologizes for the interruption, and then blurts out: “My husband’s nephew heard that at least 80 teachers are losing their jobs in Iowa because of the budget cuts.”
Dr. Rice, the chief recruiter for Las Vegas schools, has just finished saying that she doesn’t like to capitalize on the misfortune of others when trying to staff the nation’s fastest-growing school system. Her eyes light up, she asks if this information has been passed on to the recruiter in charge of advertising, and then realizes the irony of the moment. “That’s not vicious,” she insists. “They’re losing their jobs anyway.”
OK, maybe it’s not vicious. Opportunistic might be a better word. But when you’re responsible for hiring as many as 1,900 teachers a year at a time when the nation is facing a shortage of instructors, opportunism can be a virtue.
Rice’s challenge is staggering. The district projects 400,000 pupils by 2009 – up from some 172,000 in 1995 – and plans to open dozens of new schools. By necessity, then, recruiters in Clark County, Nev., have become known as perhaps the most aggressive in the nation. They’re going after retirees, stay-at-home moms, cops, social workers – anyone and everyone from Majorca to the military.
As an Arizona legislator once told Rice: “We say in Arizona, ‘You hear that sucking sound? That’s our water and our teachers going to Nevada.’ ”
Some parents and national teaching advocates worry that the desperate need for instructors results in unleashing less-qualified people on students. But Rice insists she passes over hundreds of applicants who don’t meet her standards. “It’s much easier to not hire them than to realize you’ve made a mistake and try to fire them later,” she says.
The Las Vegas area has been the nation’s fastest-growing region for more than a decade. It now boasts 1.5 million people, luring new residents with plentiful jobs, cheap housing, and no state income tax.
The region has been fortunate to have a voting public willing to approve more than $4 billion in bonds for school construction since the early 1990s. As a result, 16 new schools opened last fall, nine will open this year, and 17 more are planned for 2003. More than 60 are planned through 2010.
But the local universities crank out only 600 teachers a year, forcing Rice and her team to raid other regions where economies are tight, school buildings are old and decrepit, job promotions are slow, or the city’s just not as much fun.
Anybody and everybody can be a job candidate. A stay-at-home mom whose children are school-age is liable to get a call informing her of a teacher-certification program that includes classes during the hours her kids are in school. A military service member near retirement might notice ads in armed-services publications. An accountant looking for a career change can be in the classroom within months, and have most of his expedited training paid for by the district.
Even vacationers at McCarran International Airport are beckoned with billboards like this one: “More career opportunities. More new schools. More all-you-can-eat buffets. Is this a great place to teach or what?”
These varied and far-reaching efforts have earned Clark County a national reputation, says Mildred Hudson of Recruiting New Teachers Inc., a nonprofit think tank in Belmont, Mass. “If you look across the nation, you can see that St. Louis also recruits teachers from overseas and Savannah also has grow-your-own programs,” she says. “But Clark County is cutting edge because it’s trying to solve this problem … with an unusually wide range of strategies.”
Indeed, Clark County’s prowess is legendary, says Stephanie Zuckerman-Aviles, career-development center director at Buffalo State College in New York. One example: After visits to regions like hers, recruiters play up the weather issue by e-mailing candidates to say it was hot and sunny when they returned to Nevada.
“Other recruiters used to sit there very passively at job fairs while people passed by their tables, but the Clark County group would arrive en masse, advertise before they came, make some noise,” says Ms. Zuckerman-Aviles.”
Job fairs remain an integral part of the push, but they’re fast becoming old-fashioned in an era when 95 percent of the district’s applications are accepted via the Internet. Rice believes Clark County is the first district in the nation to have a full-time “director of e-recruiting,” Greg Halloposs, who has devised a computerized system for tracking prospective teaching candidates by color-coding.
“Green is the color of people who have asked for but never even opened the application,” Rice says. “I can send an e-mail and say: ‘You haven’t opened your application yet! We’re eager to help you!’ ”
If it sounds a bit like stalking, it is nonetheless necessary. To not keep after candidates is to risk losing out to other newly aggressive school districts in the West, including those in Arizona, southern California, and Colorado.
That might explain how Shannon Lahiff of Cleveland raced through the process. The recent graduate spent three months being rejected or ignored by dozens of Ohio school districts with few openings before phoning Clark County on May 10. By that afternoon, Ms. Lahiff had faxed her transcript and had a date on May 15 for a phone interview. Hours after that interview, she had a job offer. “I was very impressed,” she says.
Clark County does have one significant competitive disadvantage: salaries. At $26,847 for a teacher fresh out of school, it is below the national average of $27,989 for the 1999-2000 year, the most recent data available. San Diego Unified School District, a major competitor, offers $33,903. To sweeten the deal, however, the Nevada Legislature provided for a one-time $2,000 signing bonus for out-of-state teachers. Rice’s crew also reminds candidates that Nevada has a low cost of living.
Still, even with the myriad of programs, the district is likely to start the school year at least 100 teachers short in high-need areas such as special education and math.
That means Rice and her staff can never slow down. On a recent flight from New York to Las Vegas, Rice and another associate superintendent found themselves sitting on either side of a young couple. Recalls Rice: “Halfway through the flight, the other associate superintendent leans over to me and whispers, ‘She’s a social worker! I’ve got her!’ And I whispered back, ‘That’s good, because he’s a police officer, and I got him.’ “
May 8th, 2008 at 10:08 am
Poser,
I think the Short Hills mall is not a good mall to use when judging recession and shopping trends. Although the Short Hills mall in the past few years has seen a good uptick in shoppers, it will never truely lose its base set of upper class shoppers. This group will not be as impacted.
This is will be / is a middle class recession fueled by bad lending, greed and jealousy. Look to other malls that are flooded by the middle class crowd who purchased 1/2 to 3/4 million dollar homes and shopped at Louis Vuitton and Prada on 75K a year.
May 8th, 2008 at 10:08 am
Check this link out - If you really drill down, zillow has some pretty interesting data. Very hard to find though.
http://www.zillow.com/static/xls/2008Q1_New_York_Northern_New_Jersey_Long_Island_NY_NJ_PA_MSA.xls
May 8th, 2008 at 10:11 am
On the other hand, interesting anecdote, was browsing the italian designer shoes at neiman marcus (not that I can afford it), the $500+ pair and most of the women buying were not speaking english. The salesman told me their customers are mostly russians from brooklyn, and south americans.
Welcome to the New World.
You weren’t looking at women buying shoes, you were looking at your competition.
May 8th, 2008 at 10:18 am
So, looking at the product “designer shoes,” can we make an assumption regarding the decoupling of these economies?
May 8th, 2008 at 10:25 am
Ready to Buy,
Thx, that’s really good info. Look at the popularity tab, 9 out of 10 were NJ towns. That either means more people are looking at NJ, or people looking to NJ tend to use zillow more.
May 8th, 2008 at 10:25 am
#69,Grim,
Exactly. If I get what you’re saying, my point was, it’s not the local Americans who are buying this product, or who can afford it. Obviously there are a few Americans who can and always will afford such items. Incidentally the brooklynites come to avoid paying NY sales tax.
May 8th, 2008 at 10:26 am
Once again the oh so noble and on our side democrats want to set free those struggling on the backs of those who did things the right way.
May 8th, 2008 at 10:26 am
# 41 We have not had two consecutive quarters of negative growth. True enough, but the economy is in a fall
A big difference between today and recessions of the past is the availability of credit cards and lack of aversion to running up a big tab. Everyone has a stack of credit cards these days. Does gas really cost $4 per gallon when you charge it and make the same $50 per month payment you always make? In the near term, one can blunt the impact of a downturn with credit cards. Credit card companies have noted an increase in the use of CC’s to buy gas and food. This strategy, however, only works for so long and only delays the inevitable.
May 8th, 2008 at 10:27 am
Why do they need schools in Vegas anyhow. Do they really need 12 years for girls to learn to work the stripper pole and to teach guys to deal blackjack?
May 8th, 2008 at 10:27 am
#67 TJ,
That’s what I’ve been wondering all these years. I could never understand how my colleagues and folks I knew who made less than I did, were affording the additions on the house, the 2 new cars, vacations at least twice a year, dinner out every weekend, etc. I thought I was doing something wrong.
May 8th, 2008 at 10:31 am
Unfortunately, it’ll never be fashionable to wear your brokerage statement on your chest.
May 8th, 2008 at 10:31 am
“the $500+ pair and most of the women buying were not speaking english.”
$500, USD. There’s your answer.
What’s the cost in SF, DM, BP, CD or Real?
May 8th, 2008 at 10:33 am
From November through April, women gained nearly 300,000 jobs, while men lost nearly 700,000.
May 8th, 2008 at 10:33 am
BC,
Less VAT, nobody declares.
May 8th, 2008 at 10:37 am
From MarketWatch:
Fitch cuts CIT’s default rating to ‘A-’; outlook negative
May 8th, 2008 at 10:48 am
Pain,
Post some more info and you may be able to get your answers here.
May 8th, 2008 at 10:51 am
“I wonder what kind of level 3 assets Northwest Air has.”
Probably some type of lease on their planes or equipment.
May 8th, 2008 at 10:53 am
Syb, I have in the past I don’t want to take advantage of this great resource unless I’m really excited about the house. Besides I like poking the hungry tigers, some of them have been very forthright. Toothless as they may be.
400000 new students in Vegas by 2009, what are they going to drink? If the drought continues in the southwest they are going to be hot and thirsty. Doesn’t exactly bode well for a learning environment.
May 8th, 2008 at 10:55 am
Essex Says:
May 8th, 2008 at 9:32 am
Believe It: Condo Sales Slow
By MICHAEL STOLER, Special to the NYSun | May 8, 2008
SX: someone correct me if I am wrong……the profile of the market in this article sounds like A NORMAL MARKET. You have a normal market and the sales force is bellyaching that people are performing due diligence and placing serious thought INTO A MAJOR PURCHASE!
NY Sun is a f—ing pandering s—rag owned by a 25 year old NYU trusta-farian….
May 8th, 2008 at 10:57 am
#67 TJ: True to a point. But lots of upper middle class and beyond were playing the same game.
And with significant Wall St layoffs (big money positions), this may have started as a middle class recession, but will move up the food chain.
Just as there were people making 75k a year spending like they made 200k a year.
There were 200k a year people spending like they made 500k a year, and so on and so on.
May 8th, 2008 at 10:58 am
Hat tip to Ben Jones for the link..
CITY OF LOCKPORT: Debtors tagged for problems at vacant houses
Lockport City Court is laying down the law on responsible home ownership.
Judge Thomas M. DiMillo sentenced a former homeowner to fines and community service Tuesday for his part in the deterioration of an Elmwood Avenue property that he lost to foreclosure. DiMillo also warned the former occupant of another vacated home that she, too, faces consequences for walking away from title-holder’s responsibility.
David Stewart, formerly of 31 Elmwood Ave., was ordered to pay a $1,000 fine and perform 60 hours of community service within 60 days to avoid jail time on his guilty plea to four building code violations.
…
“Word has to get out that you can’t just abandon property,” Brooks said. “You have to do something to get out from under it, not just stick your head in the sand.”
DiMillo, while expressing some sympathy for Stewart’s hardship, agreed.
“At some point three years ago you had an obligation … that you couldn’t afford to do anything about, so you abandoned it,” he said. “(That’s) a crime in itself.”
…
Also Tuesday, Judith Northcliffe, owner of 162 Monroe St., reported to the court that she has no means to make needed roof and drainage repairs at her vacated house. Brooks said he will look into initiating city seizure of the property under state abandoned housing law.
Northcliffe, a senior citizen, asked the court’s help to get out from beneath the burden of owning a house she bought sight unseen 14 years ago and has regretted ever since.
May 8th, 2008 at 10:59 am
The Recession That Never Was is Now Over
http://www.briefing.com/GeneralContent/Investor/Active/ArticlePopup/ArticlePopup.aspx?SiteName=Investor&ArticleId=NS20080501093140TheBigPicture
May 8th, 2008 at 10:59 am
grim (53)-
Don’t forget waiters and retail clerks…
May 8th, 2008 at 10:59 am
What does this mean?
Special to the NYSun
If it is anything like the “Specials” that run in the Record, it means it was written by advertisers or media firms and given preferential treatment to run along side articles written by staff.
May 8th, 2008 at 11:00 am
Wow John you’re in rare form today.
May 8th, 2008 at 11:01 am
#59 rent:They argue, and are mostly successful, to get paid based on the cost of living in NJ.
Sometimes it is not so much the pay that galls me, but the arrogance.
It is never enough,and they are constantly screaming for more.
For once I would love to hear just one acknowledge that they have a sweet deal.
May 8th, 2008 at 11:01 am
grim:
#1 make 9PM?
#2 check this out….read my mind….
GSB Real Estate Career Management Seminar
Tuesday, May 27, 2008
4:00-7:00pm
Please join us for a lively discussion led by speaker Michael Herzberg,
Co-Chairman and Co-Chief Executive Officer of FPL Advisory Group.
Location
Citibank, 153 E. 53rd St
Agenda and Event Details
Throughout this seminar you’ll have the opportunity to hear a leading industry expert share career trends and success drivers, particularly with the increasingly global demands of institutional real estate investment management firms.
May 8th, 2008 at 11:02 am
Council Adopts New Affordable Housing Rules
TRENTON – The Council on Affordable Housing (COAH) May 6 adopted its revised third round rules and methodology at its monthly COAH Board meeting.
Additionally, as a result of the over 4,800 public comments received regarding the new rules, the Board also voted on a series of amendments. The new rules, which go into effect on June 2, 2008, continue to use a growth share approach which bases municipal affordable housing obligations on market-rate residential and non-residential growth.
The complete list of amendments will be published in the June 16 NJ Register and will be open for a 60-day public comment period, which will end on August 15.
COAH unveiled the revised rules in December of 2007. During a 60 day public comment period, which ended on March 22, 2008, over 4,800 comments from 600 individuals and groups were submitted to COAH. COAH staff reviewed, analyzed and responded to all of the submitted comments.
the deadline for municipalities to submit affordable housing plans to COAH has been amended to December 31, 2008; municipalities that approved affordable housing projects between 2004 and 2008 will receive a one-for-one bonus for each affordable housing unit approved; municipalities that include affordable housing units in smart growth areas near transit or those that include affordable housing units in redevelopment areas will receive a one-third bonus for every affordable unit approved; the number of jobs generated by warehouse construction will be reduced from 1.5 to 1 job per 1,000 square feet; COAH’s vacant land analysis will be revised to incorporate new DEP spatial data.
May 8th, 2008 at 11:02 am
cf,
Just barely, I was the last seat.
May 8th, 2008 at 11:04 am
grim Says:
May 8th, 2008 at 11:02 am
cf,Just barely, I was the last seat.
grim: did you throw up on someone to get it as was suggested?
May 8th, 2008 at 11:04 am
grim (77)-
“Unfortunately, it’ll never be fashionable to wear your brokerage statement on your chest.”
If one assumes that NJ in 10 years will look like Colombia in 1988 (that’s my working thesis, BTW), letting anyone know that you have wealth will make you a target for kidnap.
May 8th, 2008 at 11:05 am
Pain (84)-
“400000 new students in Vegas by 2009, what are they going to drink?”
Grey Goose and beer?
May 8th, 2008 at 11:06 am
#78, BC Bob,
you are so right. I forgot to mention that. The salesman also said the euro was killing them. I know these same shoes were about $400 a year ago. Now they’re $600 to $800.
Only reason I know so much about this, is because I keep telling myself I’m going to treat myself to a pair of these unnecessary luxuries once in my life. But everytime I go to the store to do it, I just can’t shell out the dough. Instead I choose to leave it in my money market earning a meager 2% interest, while inflation erodes my dollars. Hmmmm, when I put it that way, maybe I will get those shoes . . . they might be worth more than the interest I’ll earn a year from now.
May 8th, 2008 at 11:09 am
How low will prices go?
hehehehehe
BOOOOOOOOOOYAAAAAAAAAAAA
Bob
May 8th, 2008 at 11:09 am
“the $500+ pair and most of the women buying were not speaking english.”
$500, USD. There’s your answer.
What’s the cost in SF, DM, BP, CD or Real?
Good Point.
Why is it that the founder of Jet Blue is starting a Airline Company in Brazil? With oil at $123?
Standard of Living in the US is collapsing and that means that other nations standard of living is rising.
May 8th, 2008 at 11:11 am
Only reason I know so much about this, is because I keep telling myself I’m going to treat myself to a pair of these unnecessary luxuries once in my life.
Needless Markup Last Call in Jersey Gardens, Woodbury Commons, Gucci outlet in Secaucus, etc. Go ahead and splurge, just don’t pay sticker.
May 8th, 2008 at 11:12 am
#88 Sean: I think it is a little early for this gentlemen to be calling the recession that was not over.
He mentions consumer spending yet does not mention what the consumer is spending on. Covering food and groceries with CC’s to me is not a sign of strength.
He mentions the growth in GDP, yet does not mention that the increase was due to an increase in inventories. An increase in inventories to me is not a sign of strength.
He talks about the boom in exports, yet fails to mention that it continues to become a smaller and smaller part of our overall economy, since we import far more than we export.
He acknowledges that mtgs have become harder to get for many, and yet at the same time says the credit crunch that hit Wall St has not hit Main St. Not being able to get a mtg qualifies as hitting Main street.
May 8th, 2008 at 11:20 am
has anyone seen this. Only in New York.
If you’re falling behind the City will pay three months mortgage.
One year moratorium on all subprime forclosures.
It’s not a bail out but an assistance program. I guess I’ll be trying to get assistance to pay 3 moths of mortgages on all my investment properties and use the money I save to buy more Gold.
This nation is getting to borderline pathetic.
http://www.thetruthaboutmortgage.com/ny-assembly-passes-one-year-foreclosure-moratorium-bill/
May 8th, 2008 at 11:25 am
Analysts, please digest..
Hovnanian to sell 14 mln shrs, stock falls
U.S. home builder Hovnanian Enterprises Inc said on Wednesday it is selling 14 million shares in the open market, sending its stock down 5.7 percent in after-hours activity.
After the close of regular trading, Hovnanian said it started the follow-on offering and would use the proceeds for general corporate purposes.
The company also said it would grant the underwriters an overallotment option for an additional 2.1 million shares.
May 8th, 2008 at 11:28 am
25% dilution?
May 8th, 2008 at 11:29 am
Poor Ara, at least he has the oil to fall back on.
May 8th, 2008 at 11:31 am
JB,
Not an Anal-yst. Yes, they are diluting shareholder value.
May 8th, 2008 at 11:36 am
#9 - single income households?
Yes, it can be done.
The income doesn’t go towards the house but you’re 20-35 & the only one living there who works because mom & dad are retired.
May 8th, 2008 at 11:38 am
What I want to know are the turkeys buying these shares?
HOV is Dead and just buying some time.
May 8th, 2008 at 11:39 am
What I want to know is WHO are the turkeys buying these shares?
Sorry.
May 8th, 2008 at 11:43 am
See D!ck go to the FHA housing blog contest.
See D!ck vote for some whack blog like the Title Insurance Blog.
See D!ck cost grim some money.
See D!ck cry when he realizes he could have voted for njrereport.com
Don’t be a D!ck.
VOTE GRIM!
http://www.fhamortgagecenter.com/contest/view.php?id=73
May 8th, 2008 at 11:47 am
What I want to know are the turkeys buying these shares?
Why bi of course.
You’ll see, there is plenty pant demand for this stock.
May 8th, 2008 at 11:49 am
http://www.baltimoresun.com/business/investing/bal-bz.economy08may08,0,7827903.story
What does one do when they’re intending to go Bankrupt?
When they know that they can’t pay back the current debt they have.
They do what our governament is doing borrow a lot more and at a faster pace. As long as they can find stupid lenders who are willing to lend them money. Hey what’s another 50K in debt when you already owe more than a million and your assets(House) are worth less than it’s mortgage.
Gas and Food are expensive, Who cares? I’ll just charge it and never pay these suckers back. It’s money coming from Arab world and Russia and Asia and India. Screw them.
Say good buy to America’s phoney economy and military might.
This movie is gonna end really bad.
May 8th, 2008 at 11:54 am
njp,
I take pride in the fact that this site is in both first and ninth place.
or, perhaps my head is so big, it requires two places in the top 10.
May 8th, 2008 at 11:56 am
Housing Market Crash Predicted By Ron Paul And Alan Greenspan
“Greenspan also broke new ground in the introduction to his thesis, where he noted that homeowners were refinancing for larger amounts than their original mortgage, in essence monetizing increases in their home’s market value and spending the excess cash on goods and services or putting it into savings.” This was long before double-digit rises is home values, subprime mortgages, no-doc loans, Home Equity Lines of Credit (HELOCs), and inflatable-value McMansion-burbs, but is a perfect representation of what happened during the real estate boom of the late 1990’s and early 2000’s
Ron Paul, as well, understood the consequences of the housing bubble. In a speech made into the Congressional Record on September 6, 2001, he stated, “Refinancing especially helped the consumers to continue spending even in a slowing economy.” The same monetization of rising property values that Greenspan was concerned about became Greenspan’s policy when looking for a new bubble.
Greenspan, for one. A “break in prices of existing homes would pull down the prices of new homes to the level of construction costs or below, inducing a sharp contraction in building,”
September of 2007, Paul said, “The housing boom was caused by the Federal Reserve’s policy resulting in artificially low interest rates. Consumers, misled by low interest rates, were looking to consume, while homebuilders saw the low interest rates as a signal to build, and build they did.” The larger the bubble, the more malinvestment would occur, and the more severe the correction would have to be.
May 8th, 2008 at 11:57 am
For once I would love to hear just one acknowledge that they have a sweet deal.
Amazingly, many of my cop and teacher friends have bought into their own line of B.S. When Snooty River cops get a pay raise, the cops in surrounding towns feel like they are getting a raw deal. “Well, Snooty River cops make $120k per year and here in Sleepy Hollows, we only get $110k…and we have 10% more speeders to deal with…we are being oppressed”.
I’ve talked to teachers who think getting to retire early is completely warranted because dealing with kids all day is hard work.
May 8th, 2008 at 12:00 pm
Why isn’t there a Taxpayers Union?
Maybe we could hire Katz and work a deal at the table.
May 8th, 2008 at 12:07 pm
There is a taxpayer’s union. It’s the head of our govt. Just like a union they spend some money on the contributors and the rest they squander away.
May 8th, 2008 at 12:12 pm
Housing crash claims a whole city as Vallejo, CA declares bankruptcy
I wonder what will happen to all NJ towns if property prices come down 30% or so. In fact in outer burbs the property taxes are almost becoming same amount as mortgage.
May 8th, 2008 at 12:14 pm
[112] Patient,
Someone took down the Tampa blog. Grim now stands alone. All others a very distant second.
May 8th, 2008 at 12:15 pm
# 74 Bingo
# 83 Most of the airlines “own” (aka mortgage) only a small portion of their fleets. Most planes in the commercial fleet are leased by GE and other such companies.
May 8th, 2008 at 12:21 pm
“I wonder what will happen to all NJ towns if property prices come down 30% or so.’
SG,
Their only chance of survival is to declare bankruptcy. Small towns can no longer afford to pay 3 times for 1 position, 1 active and 2 retirees.
Likewise, our federal govt may declare, in the future, bankruptcy. The dollar will be laid to rest and there will be a new currency. The Amero; US, Canada and Mexico. It will be the Amero vs the Euro.
May 8th, 2008 at 12:21 pm
Ridgewood
SLD 110 PINE ST $430,000 4/27/2004
ACT 110 PINE ST $474,900 12/8/2007
PCH 110 PINE ST $463,500 2/1/2008
PCH 110 PINE ST $447,900 4/4/2008
ACT* 110 PINE ST $447,900 4/16/2008
U/C 110 PINE ST $447,900 4/28/2008
SLD 110 PINE ST $425,000 5/8/2008
May 8th, 2008 at 12:24 pm
Small update on the house I described before. The front door pic prominently displayed the house number. So thanks to all of the tax links grim has posted and a little snooping with the info from the listing I found out the following nuggets.
Loan was 2003 vintage,
330000 large owned by Fannie Mae,
home debtor foreclosed early this year.
Why do we need realtors again?
May 8th, 2008 at 12:25 pm
Economist article,
American housing: Map of misery
The house-price bust has a long way to go
SOUNDING more like a cartographer than a central banker, Ben Bernanke this week showed off the Federal Reserve’s latest gizmo for tracking America’s property bust: maps that colour-code price declines, foreclosures and other gauges of housing distress for every county.
Hardest hit have been the “bubble states”—California, Nevada and Florida, and parts of the industrial Midwest. The biggest uncertainty hanging over the economy is how red will things get.
By most measures, prices are still above the levels implied by the fundamentals. Using a model that ties house prices to disposable incomes and long-term interest rates, analysts at Goldman Sachs reckon that the correction in national house prices is only halfway through. They expect an 18-20% correction overall, or another 11-13% decline from now. But their models suggest that six states—Arizona, Florida, Virginia, Maryland, California and New Jersey, could see further price declines of 25% or more.
Given the typical pace of rental growth, Mr Feroli reckons house prices (as measured by the Case-Shiller index) need to fall by 10-15% over the next year and a half for the rent/price yield to return to its historical average. Again, that suggests the national housing bust is only halfway through. And, given the scale of excess supply, house prices are likely to overshoot. All told, the pressure on policymakers to help struggling homeowners is bound to increase.
This is first time I read New Jersey mentioned among other top 5 states.
May 8th, 2008 at 12:25 pm
Tampa blog is at 18.
I’m guessing they lost votes due to ballot stuffing.
May 8th, 2008 at 12:28 pm
RentinginNJ Says:
I’ve talked to teachers who think getting to retire early is completely warranted because dealing with kids all day is hard work.
Believe me, I’d rather work 80 hours a week at my office job than 20 hours watching 28 or so children. It’s not the picnic that everyone thinks it is…parents are a real P.I.A. with their “special” sons and daughters.
Also, here’s how NJ teacher pensions are calculated. Take number of years service and divide by 55. Then multiply that figure times your ending salary. If you work 30 years at the same job and make $75,000, you will get $40,909/yr. If you work 20 years, you will get $27,272/yr….not exactly the lottery that everyone makes it out to be.
Tenure also sucks too. As soon as you leave one school district and go to another, you start over again. Non-tenured teachers can get bumped at any time. My wife is stuck to the town where she works because she doesn’t want to lose tenure, even if the pay in that district is lower than most.
May 8th, 2008 at 12:29 pm
RE: Taxpayer’s Union. My 0.02 on why it will never happen.
It won’t work here for a number of reasons. In Mass., which had a tax revolt, most homeowners were white, middle class, fiscal conservatives (notwithstanding Mass’ liberal bent, that is largely limited to social issues). That level of econ-demographic homogenity doesn’t exist in NJ. In addition, there was not a large uber-wealthy class of WS types there that the public could wring out, and that wealth was highly mobile, meaning that any millionaire’s taxes would cause deadweight loss rather than actual revenues. In addition, at that time, this same middle class group was becoming upwardly mobile so there was no real incentive to start a class war.
Another reason it worked there was that fewer Bay Staters sucked at the public teat, so there was a general, widespread antipathy toward taxes and gov spending that does not exist in NJ. Here, too many of the electorate rely on gov, directly or indirectly, for salaries, welfare, or other perks.
Finally, the wane of the traditional power bases centered in Boston, meant that there was no counterweight to the angry suburbanites, many of whom came from that waning power base in the city, moved from gov-centered employment to private-centered employment, and were getting gored by taxes in the suburbs.
When the tax revolt hit, it wasn’t a rollback but a cap on future growth, so the munis were handcuffed somewhat–if they started to cut programs immediately, it would look really dirty to the taxpayers. Another smart measure was to include renters by giving a deduction for rent on personal income tax forms. That won over a fair swath of city voters.
Finally, Mass has a clear statutory method for getting ballot initiatives on the ballot, and a reasonably independent judiciary, unlike NJ where the process is more difficult and the Supremes can be counted on to kill initiatives that the gov doesn’t approve of.
Those differences are why the tax revolt worked in Mass. but won’t work here.
May 8th, 2008 at 12:33 pm
7 grim
“Senate Minority Leader [AND BRIGADOON RESIDENT] Tom Kean Jr.”
May 8th, 2008 at 12:33 pm
“Tampa blog is at 18. I’m guessing they lost votes due to ballot stuffing.”
Rich [127],
Tampa? No street smarts. We’re from NJ, we know how to contend with that small obstacle.
May 8th, 2008 at 12:37 pm
I am ticked off. I called the Fed and told them that I had invested heavily in eight-tracks, but the market has tanked. I asked about being bailed out, but they said that we live in a market economy and people need to make good investment decisions. Treasury said the same.
So, I called the Fed back and told them about the declining value of my Beta-max. Same story at both the Fed and Treasury.
So, I called about my Atari, Commodore, and Sinclaire computer systems. Clearly with the importance of computers consumers should not be expected to suffer with assets that have declined in value. No dice they said, market economy and all that.
I guess the government really isnt in the business of bailing out people who make bad decisions after all.
May 8th, 2008 at 12:39 pm
# 131 “We’re from NJ, we know how to contend with that small obstacle.”
By the way, was it one kneecap or two? I always found that it is good to leave one, in case another message needs to be sent.
May 8th, 2008 at 12:40 pm
Well, it looks like Obama will be the nominee. We know what that means; it is time to start assessing the McCain cabinet appointments and his likely policies.
May 8th, 2008 at 12:43 pm
The dollar will be laid to rest and there will be a new currency. The Amero; US, Canada and Mexico. It will be the Amero vs the Euro.
No way, The canadians and the mexians are not stupid!!!!!!!!!
May 8th, 2008 at 12:45 pm
128……..Bingo! Most people who work in good private sector jobs will outearn teachers while they work and then once they retire…..it is not difficult. But then again, I cannot expect an electorate who voted twice to elect George Bush to understand this. So people will continue to complain about this ‘issue’….
May 8th, 2008 at 12:48 pm
14 lost
“Patient- previous thread
Sprechen Sie Deutsch?”
Ja, ein bisschen. Ich hab’ nicht seid ‘88 Deutsch studieren, aber.
May 8th, 2008 at 12:48 pm
http://www.iht.com/articles/ap/2008/05/08/africa/ME-FIN-Iran-Oil.php
IRAN says $200 oil in the near future and provide an explanation.
May 8th, 2008 at 12:51 pm
“No way, The canadians and the mexians are not stupid!!!!!!!!!”
make,
Funny, the same thought crossed my mind as soon as I hit submit.
May 8th, 2008 at 12:58 pm
Actually it is not the parents it the teachers. Teachers would not last a moment in the real world. I will use this weeks chapter of golden teacher moments. Monday of this week Teacher tells class to bring in six empty bottles/cans with a deposit return by tommorrow. I am not a big soda nut so my wife runs out buys a six pack of soda so we have something to give in on Friday. You would think the teacher would have gave more notice as lots of people shop on weekends. Then yesterday she tells the students that one of the parents needs to volunteer to come in on Friday pick up the cans take them to the supermarket return them and bring the cash back to class. Nice project, parents do all the work and what the heck does it teach. Everytime I have a party at my house I return cans the next day and one of my kids is usually with me. That and this week the school got a new phone blast system for “emergency response and snow days” well the school budget is this week, they have a fund raiser and PTA stuff so two or three times a night my phone is ringing with automated messages from the school to vote for this, give in money or go to a PTA meeting. The inmates are running the nut house at most NY/NJ surburban schools.
Are they underpaid? Not really.
May 8th, 2008 at 12:59 pm
“How to be an American citizen”
http://www.kahunaburger.com/2008/03/23/a-long-strange-trip-by-tom-hyland/
Do not read the above post if you do not want to know the Truth about the preset state of affairs.
If you read it, and feel compelled to act, it is at your own peril.
May 8th, 2008 at 1:00 pm
John….thanks for your riveting story. I am now convinced that you know ‘everything’.
May 8th, 2008 at 1:04 pm
Re early teacher retierment:
Is anyone aware of any reliable data that shows the percentage of eligible teachers or other governmental employees who actually retire early?
Here are my unscientific observations. I know alot of teachers and most of them do not retire until their early sixties because they cannot afford it or do not have 25 years in service because they took time off to raise children. On the other hand, there is no mandatory retirement age for teachers and I have known some who don’t retire until they have one foot in the grave. Also, most of the municpal employees I know, except for cops, do not retire early.
I am not for or against this benefit because I do not have enough information. Complaining about or defending it is a waste of time without data.
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