Fri 9 May 2008
This is the time and place to post observations about your local areas, comments on news stories or the New Jersey housing market, open house reports, etc. If you have any questions you wanted to ask earlier in the week but never posted them up, let’s have them. Also a good place to post suggestions, requests for information, criticism, and praise.
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May 9th, 2008 at 5:57 am
From Bloomberg:
New Jersey’s Corzine Seeks First Wind-Power Farm Off East Coast
New Jersey Governor Jon Corzine wants his state to be the first in the U.S. Northeast to build an electricity-generating wind farm off the Atlantic coast.
Five companies are vying for $19 million in grants and the right to put as many as 200 windmills within 20 miles (32 kilometers) of the Jersey Shore. The state plans to select a winner in August, said Lance Miller, chief of policy and planning for the Board of Public Utilities.
May 9th, 2008 at 5:57 am
Vote early and often. -Mayor Richard Daley
May 9th, 2008 at 5:58 am
From the WSJ:
Mortgage Firms Cool to Principal-Cut Plan
By RUTH SIMON and NICK TIMIRAOS
May 9, 2008; Page A3
A major provision of the housing-market legislation passed by the House Thursday is getting a lukewarm reception from the mortgage industry.
The measure, which is aimed at reducing foreclosures, would encourage mortgage companies to reduce the principal on troubled loans. In exchange, the Federal Housing Administration would pay off the current loan and issue the borrower a new FHA-backed mortgage. Struggling homeowners would get lower monthly payments to increase chances they could avoid foreclosure.
The latest effort comes as mortgage delinquencies are climbing and other government efforts have come under criticism for doing too little to help most borrowers. Moody’s Economy.com estimates that nearly 2.5 million homeowners will lose their homes in 2008 and 2009 because of problems managing their mortgages.
The Congressional Budget Office estimates that the proposal, which would be voluntary for mortgage companies, could help refinance loans for 500,000 borrowers over the next four years.
But trade groups that represent mortgage companies and investors say the provision might not help as many borrowers as some expect. They view the write-down provision as one of several options they might use to assist troubled homeowners. “I don’t believe this would be a tool that would be used significantly,” said Tom Deutsch, deputy executive director of the American Securitization Forum, which represents mortgage-servicing companies and investors who buy mortgages that have been packaged into securities.
David Kittle, chairman-elect of the Mortgage Bankers Association, said at a conference earlier this week that he sees no rush by mortgage bankers to write down loans.
Mortgage companies that choose to participate in the proposed plan would be required to write down the value of a delinquent loan by 15% from the home’s current appraised value. Borrowers would have to be at least 60 days late on their mortgage payments to qualify for the program. The bill excludes investors and those who lied about their income on their loan applications.
Mr. Deutsch says that in most cases, investors who hold mortgage-backed securities would be better off with other alternatives, such as temporarily reducing the borrower’s interest rate or extending the term of the loan, in part because those leave open the chance that investors will get a larger return if the borrower gets back on track and home prices rebound. Mortgage companies are more likely to participate in the write-down program if they expect home prices to continue to decline steeply, he notes, increasing the chances of larger losses.
May 9th, 2008 at 5:58 am
From Bloomberg:
Rebates Won’t Spark U.S. Economy as Prices Soar, Survey Shows
The Bush administration’s tax rebates won’t prevent the U.S. economy from stagnating in the second quarter as soaring food and fuel bills hurt consumers, a Bloomberg News survey showed.
“Consumers have gone into the bunkers,” said Ken Goldstein, an economist at the Conference Board, the New York- based research group that tracks confidence. They “fear that their budgets are getting squeezed tighter and tighter.”
The economy will grow at a 0.1 percent annual rate from April to June, the least since the 2001 recession, according to the median estimate of 54 economists surveyed from May 2 to May 8. Household spending may rise at a 0.5 percent pace, half the first quarter’s gain and the smallest increase in 17 years.
Economists also said the economy would grow less in the second half of the year than forecast last month, even as the odds of a recession came down. After paying the higher costs of food and gasoline, the $117 billion in rebates may leave little extra as individual taxpayers are limited to $600.
“A $600 check isn’t enough to turn things around,” said Goldstein. “It took so much to wilt consumer confidence, that it’s not going to be rebuilt real fast.”
May 9th, 2008 at 5:59 am
JB, looks like you are leading the pack in the Real Estate Blog contest. I noticed that there is two separate entries for your blog and the votes will get split. Not sure if this can be rectified.
Rank 1. New Jersey Real Estate Report, by James Bednar. Votes: 304
Rank 8: NJ Real Estate Report, by James Bednar. Votes: 19.
May 9th, 2008 at 6:01 am
Vote early and often. -Mayor Richard Daley
Unnecessary, we’ve got an 8 to 1 lead.
May 9th, 2008 at 6:03 am
From MarketWatch:
Citigroup may sell $400 billion of non-core assets: report
Citigroup will consider selling around $400 billion of non-core assets as part of a plan to slash costs and reinvigorate profit growth, according to a report in the Financial Times citing people familiar with the situation. The newspaper said CEO Vikram Pandit is likely to tell an analyst meeting that around 20% of Citigroup’s $2 trillion balance sheet consists of legacy positions, including entire businesses and trading positions outside its core focus of commercial, consumer and investment banking. Selling the assets will take years and some may never be sold, the report said.
May 9th, 2008 at 6:07 am
From the Asbury Park Press:
High-rise builder lowering his site
Metro Homes and the city have reached agreement to give the builder time to work out its financial problems on the partly built beachfront Esperanza high-rise. Metro would come back with new money and build what is expected to be a less extravagant structure.
According to the agreement, Metro Homes is negotiating a bank agreement with CapitalOne — the bank that holds the first mortgage on the project — to get enough time to cure defaults.
“Not only is the Esperanza in trouble with the city but with their construction lender,”
said city redevelopment lawyer Thomas Hastie.
Metro Homes President Dean Geibel is “coming up with $2 million to keep this viable,” Hastie said. “The goal of this agreement is that by the end of the year, we’ll know what the new project will look like and we’ll know he has the means and ability to complete it. Everyone’s excited about it.”
Metro closed down the construction site Dec. 7, citing the housing slump and mortgage woes.
May 9th, 2008 at 6:18 am
From Bloomberg:
UBS’s Exit Strikes at Heart of Municipal-Bond Market: Joe Mysak
For anyone who remembered the last time the industry fell apart, the news was stunning: UBS AG is getting out of the municipal bond business.
The move, part of a massacre slashing 5,500 jobs, was framed in other terms when it was announced on May 6. The bank was going to sell the municipal department. UBS was getting out of the business “on the institutional side,” as Jerker Johansson, chief executive officer of the investment-banking unit, put it in a conference call. UBS would move some traders over to the wealth-management division.
Most of the people in the department knew something bad was about to happen. The day before the announcement, the headhunters started reporting that they were getting calls from people at UBS’s municipal bond department.
And so another round of cutbacks in the municipal bond industry begins. It has been a while.
UBS, which was the third-ranked underwriter of municipals in 2007, may be the first firm in this cycle to announce its exit, like Salomon Brothers did so spectacularly back in 1987. There will be blood.
May 9th, 2008 at 6:24 am
From CNBC:
Lenders May Have to Disclose More About Rates
Lenders would be required to tell consumers when they are being offered less favorable terms based on poorer credit scores under new rules proposed on Thursday by the Federal Reserve and the Federal Trade Commission.
The rules would require a “risk-based pricing” notice to consumers when they receive more expensive credit terms than those offered to individuals with better credit histories.
“Under these rules, a risk-based pricing notice would generally be provided to the consumer after terms of the credit have been set, but before the consumer becomes contractually obligated on the credit transaction,” the Fed and the FTC said in a statement.
May 9th, 2008 at 6:32 am
From the Daily Record:
Bill would open rail corridor to private train service
A bill introduced in the House on Thursday seeks to explicitly allow private companies to compete to provide train service in the Northeast Corridor for the first time.
The bipartisan bill also proposes to provide $14.3 billion to Amtrak over the next five years and boost federal investment to use high-speed trains like those used in Europe and Japan.
The centerpiece of the bill, according to Florida Rep. John Mica, the ranking Republican on the House ranking Republican on the House transportation committee, calls for opening up the Washington-to-Boston route and 10 others across the country to private competitors.
Under that scenario, the nation’s taxpayer-subsidized passenger rail provider would have to outbid its privately funded rivals to run trains on Amtrak’s most heavily traveled and consistently profitable route.
Amtrak and NJ Transit trains travel on the Northeast Corridor, serving thousands of passengers every day.
“It’s pretty revolutionary. The private sector can develop, finance, construct and operate,” said Mica, a staunch Amtrak critic in the past, after a news conference announcing the legislation.
“Amtrak would still control the corridor as far as train traffic (is concerned),” he said.
May 9th, 2008 at 6:35 am
BC,
You think the lumber guy is still around?
Bad year for B.C. sawmills only going to get worse: consultant
The B.C. sawmilling industry is heading for a record bad year and was warned Thursday to expect “more blood on the floor.”
…
“Even though it seems like we are reading an obituary weekly about sawmills shutting down, the supply is not reducing quickly enough to keep up with reducing demand.”
…
“It’s going to be a record low. Worse than 1991. The first quarter results just came out and they are bad.”
There will be no recovery before 2010, he said.
“It will be 2010 before we get out of the basement.”
May 9th, 2008 at 6:46 am
From the NY Times:
Bad Investments and a $7.8 Billion Loss at A.I.G.
The fortunes of American International Group, one of the world’s biggest insurance companies, rise and fall on precise calculations of risk. Last quarter, those calculations went seriously awry.
In the worst three months of the company’s 89-year history, A.I.G. lost $7.81 billion, primarily from bad investments in complex financial instruments. The loss of $3.09 a share, reported after the market’s close Thursday, was four times worse than Wall Street analysts had expected.
The venerable insurer now joins the ranks of other industry giants that have suffered huge losses because of the recent tumult in the financial markets. This is the first time A.I.G. has lost money in two consecutive quarters.
…
Shares of the company closed at $44.15, down 93 cents, or 2 percent. In after-hours trading, A.I.G. shares fell another 7 percent, and the ratings agencies Standard & Poor’s and Fitch lowered the company’s credit ratings.
May 9th, 2008 at 6:50 am
From USA Today:
Mortgage crisis seeps to prime loans
The first concrete evidence that delinquencies on mortgage bills have spread well beyond those with subpar credit shows that even prime borrowers have increasingly fallen behind on their house payments.
The figures remain relatively small so far. But if they rise further, delinquencies on prime loans — given only to those with good credit — could prolong the housing crisis.
About 2.3% of prime loans were 60 days’ past due in February, the highest level in at least a decade, according to data from FirstAmerican CoreLogic LoanPerformance. That’s up from 1.4% a year ago.
Some economists, such as Brian Bethune of Global Insight and Dean Baker of the Center for Economic and Policy Research, say they think delinquencies on prime loans have likely risen further since then.
“We’re seeing the prime area coming under pressure, with delinquencies moving up,” Bethune says. “We’re in uncharted territory, and it’s definitely been affecting the prime market, although it’s still not anywhere as severe as in the subprime market.”
May 9th, 2008 at 7:25 am
Email/Call Bush to stop housing bailout!
http://globaleconomicanalysis.blogspot.com/2008/05/tax-rebates-robbing-peter-to-pay-paul.html
May 9th, 2008 at 7:38 am
From the AP:
Housing aid bill faces veto by President Bush
Democrats’ plans to help hundreds of thousands of homeowners struggling with rising subprime mortgage rates and plummeting house values could be sidetracked by President Bush’s threatened veto and the backing of many congressional Republicans.
Opponents of the plan say more prudent homebuyers and renters shouldn’t be called upon to bail out borrowers who gambled on ever-rising housing prices and lost.
“The American people don’t want to make their neighbor’s payment when they’re having trouble making their own,” said Rep. Randy Neugebauer, R-Texas.
May 9th, 2008 at 7:39 am
“You think the lumber guy is still around?’
Classic. My fav, along with the monkeys reading the chart.
Where else can you get this entertainment. I have a hunch, he/she, was shorting oil at 70-80?
May 9th, 2008 at 7:39 am
Well that short sale @ Maxwell in Hoboken sure seems to have scared the “investors”.
http://newjersey.craigslist.org/search/rfs?query=maxwell&minAsk=min&maxAsk=max
It’s gone from 1-2 listings/day on craigslist to like 7.
May 9th, 2008 at 7:40 am
From MarketWatch:
Oil futures break through $125, approach $126
Oil futures blitzed past the $125 a barrel mark in electronic trading as New York traders started to get in, rising as high as $125.98 a barrel. In more recent trade, oil traded at $125.55, up $1.86. Oil futures have climbed nearly $10 this week.
May 9th, 2008 at 7:42 am
grim (3)-
“David Kittle, chairman-elect of the Mortgage Bankers Association, said at a conference earlier this week that he sees no rush by mortgage bankers to write down loans.”
Wow. What a shock.
May 9th, 2008 at 7:47 am
“The Bush administration’s tax rebates”
It wasn’t too long ago that Paulson pressed the Chinese to increase the bands on the yuan. In conjunction with this, Paulson stated that Americans will do their part by increasing their savings rate. Now the half-wits, sorry for the compliment, decide that the same drunken consumer, buried in debt, need more spending $. The wizards of DC are viewed by the world as goons.
May 9th, 2008 at 7:52 am
Citi [7],
It’s a dysfunctional family. You have a hedgie running it, who knows absolutely nothing about Consumer Banking and Global Wealth Management. Before it’s over, 30-60K will lose their job.
May 9th, 2008 at 8:00 am
Bergabe vs. Trichet. How are you betting?
May 9th, 2008 at 8:02 am
BC (21)-
Our empire is crumbling, brought low by an epidemic of stupid.
May 9th, 2008 at 8:03 am
Grim 16 Do Dems have the votes to override the veto I wonder. Will the Senate Republicans cave in. Hope not.
May 9th, 2008 at 8:09 am
Clot 21 Most have no clue. Had a guy blame high fuel prices on the Jews controlling the world. Yes this just what Israel wants, more money going to countries sworn to wipe them out. You can’t make this stuff up.
May 9th, 2008 at 8:13 am
Sorry that’s Clot 24 More coffee!
May 9th, 2008 at 8:14 am
Mikeinwaiting Says:
May 9th, 2008 at 8:09 am
Clot 21 Most have no clue. Had a guy blame high fuel prices on the Jews controlling the world.
MIW: Rev. Wright?
May 9th, 2008 at 8:16 am
#6 grim
“Unnecessary, we’ve got an 8 to 1 lead.”
Is that a quote from Hillary from around the start of 2007?
May 9th, 2008 at 8:19 am
“Unnecessary, we’ve got an 8 to 1 lead.”
No time to get complacent. Bury the suckers. Go for the knockout.
May 9th, 2008 at 8:21 am
U.S. crude oil futures rose to a fresh record high of $125.98 a barrel on Friday. They were trading $2.11 higher at $125.80 by 7:09 a.m. EDT.
May 9th, 2008 at 8:26 am
Mike (26)-
I hear there’s a lot of that kind of thinking in Sussex Co.
May 9th, 2008 at 8:27 am
Cindy,
Here is the Thaler deck:
http://njrereport.com/files/thaler_nudge.pdf
I need a bit more time to put my thoughts together. Sitting at the lecture, I couldn’t help but draw parallels to some of core tenets of industrial psychology and design. This work, to me, seems like a logical extension of those concepts into the realm of decision making.
I’ve got the book in hand now, and was pleased to see a quote by Don Norman on the back flap, the author of The Design of Everyday Things. If you haven’t read it, I’d suggest reading it after Nudge, I’m sure you’ll immediately understand the comparison I’m trying to make.
May 9th, 2008 at 8:30 am
#18,
SHORT SALE at $699,000 MAXWELL PL. for 1BR?
How about $99,000 because that’s all it’s worth? Heeee Heeeee
May 9th, 2008 at 8:34 am
WASHINGTON (MarketWatch) - In a sign of weaker global growth, both imports and exports fell sharply in March, driving the U.S. trade deficit down to $58.2 billion, the Commerce Department reported Friday. Nominal imports fell 2.9% to $206.7 billion, the largest decline in more than six years, despite record oil prices. Nominal exports dropped to $148.5 billion, the biggest drop in nearly three years, despite higher prices for U.S. farm products. After adjusting for inflation, the real trade gap was the lowest since November 2003. The weaker-than-expected trade gap implies an upward revision to the 0.6% first estimate for first-quarter gross domestic product growth.
May 9th, 2008 at 8:36 am
33 Grim
Maybe I’m used to presentations being more detailed but I’d need more info to make sense of it.
May 9th, 2008 at 8:42 am
Clot It was in Morris talking to a fellow at
breakfast the other day. In Sussex they have
not even gotten to that one yet. Behind the curve & then some, but you can buy a nice house real cheap. Beautiful place to, if you can get to work from here it’s a great move. Schools good in most towns, taxes low compared to BC. 10 years coming up from Hudson would never go back.
May 9th, 2008 at 8:44 am
So I’ve been building a Jungle Gym for my 2 year old for the past 4 days. Decided to get a “build-your-own” set from Toys’r'Us rather then spending $3-5k on a set from places that deliver & install them. (BTW: If you haven’t seen prices on these megasets, don’t be surprised when they quote you $7-10k for a fully loaded set!)
…I’m on Phase 11 of 43 and I think it was easier to build my own house.
None the less, the excitement on my son’s face when he sees it complete will make it all worth it.
In 5 years when my son is bored with it, I’m going to list it on the MLS. It’s got major curb appeal.
-Richie
May 9th, 2008 at 8:46 am
Here is the Thaler deck:
I’d like to hear more about the “fly on the urinal” expairment
May 9th, 2008 at 8:48 am
Richie I don’t envie you that job, those things are a nightmare. But as you say it’s worth it. Good luck.
May 9th, 2008 at 8:50 am
Tent cities spring up in LA
Too bad NJ weather does not support tent living.
May 9th, 2008 at 8:52 am
Mr Mortgage - HERE COMES THE ALT-A CRISIS
Nice explanation. I think next word for News Papers - Option ARM.
May 9th, 2008 at 8:53 am
Mr Mortgage - Is Now The Right Time To Buy A Home?
May 9th, 2008 at 8:54 am
#37
Sussex really isn’t like that now, if it ever was. I like that stereotype though because it keeps alot of ignorant people from moving here.
Admittedly, I’ve only lived here for 16 years so I’m still a newcomer from “down below.”
May 9th, 2008 at 8:56 am
make that 500B!
Citigroup to cut about $500 bln in noncore assets
http://www.marketwatch.com/news/story/citigroup-cut-about-500-bln/story.aspx?guid=%7B3BF42C24%2D7972%2D40E6%2D96BD%2D26B472C7B27D%7D&dist=TQP_Mod_mktwN
May 9th, 2008 at 8:56 am
The fly experiment is a good example of Thaler’s Nudge concept.
By etching an image of a housefly in a urinal, the experimenters found that they could reduce “spillage”. Why? Because men aimed for the fly.
The key here is that the experimenters framed the context surrounding the decision to aim in such a way that the subject had a choice. They were not manipulated, forced, or fined into aiming, they just aimed. The “fly” nudged them to do it.
It really is a very different concept than framing the situation in such a way to manipulate the subject into choosing or doing what the experimenter wants them to do (advertising?). Contrast this with accomplishing the same outcome by putting a ring around the outside rim of the urinal that electrocutes the user if they “miss”. (Although I think Mythbusters debunked this one).
May 9th, 2008 at 8:58 am
Mobile park units help toward COAH quota
The amendment calls for including 100 units at the 130-unit Pine TreeMobile Home Park on Route 35 in the borough’s affordable housing plan to meet the affordable housing quota as determined by COAH.
May 9th, 2008 at 8:58 am
It’s Dubai, Shanghai, Mumbai or Bye-Bye.
“Citigroup Inc. (C) may be based in New York, but it’s gaining more of a Middle East influence.”
“The financial conglomerate on Thursday added to its close history with the region by sending Alberto Verme, co-head of its investment bank, to Dubai. Verme will be the first major U.S. investment-banking chief stationed in Dubai and the latest in a series of ties made between Citigroup and the region’s growing financial community and clout.”
http://money.cnn.com/news/newsfeeds/articles/djf500/200805081149DOWJONESDJONLINE000890_FORTUNE5.htm
May 9th, 2008 at 9:02 am
Against the grain 44 Sussex is rather large, I’m pretty far up. Sparta is normal,
the town of Sussex on the other hand fits my view to the tee. Yes “down below” you are a Sussex County resident!I thought I was alone on the board from here. Grim how about some Sussex #s for ATG & me.
May 9th, 2008 at 9:04 am
# 3 grim: Mortgage companies that choose to participate in the proposed plan would be required to write down the value of a delinquent loan by 15% from the home’s current appraised value.
This is what I was talking about yesterday evening. So if the house is appraaised at 500k and the mtg is 500K, a 15% write down is 75K.
Should not potentail buyers be factoring in the same discount? Why would I pay 500K if I know others in a similiar houses are only paying 425K?
All theoretical of course, but what does this do to the market. If this bill is passes, I will be factoring this in on any bid I make on a house.
May 9th, 2008 at 9:08 am
# 24 “Our empire is crumbling, brought low by an epidemic of stupid.”
I just love the folks who point to “American exceptionalism” and, essentially, argue that because the United States rose from nothing into a world military and economic power that we will always remain so regardless of our actions. Such a position ignores the fact that: we were blessed with abundant natural resources, which were cheap to extract from the land and the seas, and that this is no longer the case; we invested in basic infrastructure and kept upgrading it to achieve and maintain the best infrastructure in the world, and we no longer do this; we accumulated wealth and bought-up resources and means of production in other nations in furtherance of our own economic interest; we became the source of financing to others and, in the process, got to call the shots because, after all, it was our money; we maintained a favorable balance of trade and lived within our means. And, in the wake of WWII we had the playing field to ourselves.
These conditions no longer exist and yet a huge percentage of the population seems to think that greatness achieved by one’s grandparents and parents automatically guarantees perpetual greatness for them selves and their children – regardless of whether the nation abandons the course that led to its greatness.
Folks, military power is dependent on economic power; if we do not get our economic house in order, our military power will shrink faster than British military power did after WWII.
Homeowner bailouts and “stimulus checks” are symptoms of deep economic rot and we just do not seem to get it. We stand at a precipice and, I for one, would appreciate elected officials to come clean and lay things on the line in unambiguous terms. If we do not change our behavior, and soon, even those of us who have been prudent will get caught up in a maelstrom that I don’t think any of us can fully envision.
As cocky as we have been in recent years, I don’t expect the rest of the world to be kind to us should the storm come.
May 9th, 2008 at 9:08 am
# 51 in moderation
May 9th, 2008 at 9:08 am
#50
The town of Sussex has gentrified quite a bit since I moved to the county (correction - I’ve lived here 22 years, not 16 years).
There was a time that one bar fight in Sussex Boro would mean that there was no State Police coverage for hours in the rest of the county while the fight was sorted out.
On the other hand, take a look at Branchville, a beautiful little town.
May 9th, 2008 at 9:10 am
WSJ Article,
Mortgage Firms Cool to Principal-Cut Plan
By RUTH SIMON and NICK TIMIRAOS
A major provision of the housing-market legislation passed by the House Thursday is getting a lukewarm reception from the mortgage industry.
The measure, which is aimed at reducing foreclosures, would encourage mortgage companies to reduce the principal on troubled loans. In exchange, the Federal Housing Administration would pay off the current loan and issue the borrower a new FHA-backed mortgage. Struggling homeowners would get lower monthly payments to increase chances they could avoid foreclosure.
Mortgage companies that choose to participate in the proposed plan would be required to write down the value of a delinquent loan by 15% from the home’s current appraised value. Borrowers would have to be at least 60 days late on their mortgage payments to qualify for the program. The bill excludes investors and those who lied about their income on their loan applications.
But mortgage companies may face pressure to use the program. “I want to put the servicers on notice,” Rep. Barney Frank (D-Mass.), a co-sponsor of the bill, said at a hearing last month. “If we see a widespread refusal on the part of servicers to cooperate voluntarily in what we see as an important economic problem…they can expect much tougher regulation in the future.”
May 9th, 2008 at 9:10 am
“On the other hand, take a look at Branchville, a beautiful little town.”
ATG [52],
My brother lives there, on the lake. He trades the markets on his dock.
May 9th, 2008 at 9:11 am
Dow predictions for the day?
Down 150 is what I’m going with.
May 9th, 2008 at 9:11 am
Sorry about earlier article repost.
May 9th, 2008 at 9:15 am
(33) Grim…
I have the book on order…looking forward to the read. I was captivated by the “opt out” idea for organ donation when I read the reviews.
Reading the card’s conclusion, “Humans are imperfect. We need all the help we can get.”
“It is impossible to improve choices without restricting options.”
“Don’t use bans and mandates - just nudge.”
I’m reminded of my daughters and their outlandish daily clothing choices when they were small. I wanted them to be “in charge” and begin learning to make choices for themselves but invariably they’d choose some striped top to go with their checked pants. It finally occured to me I needed to “restrict” their choices - they still chose what to wear that day but from a “limited” selection. (The stuff I selected to choose from was going to match no matter what.)But….
no complaining - they WERE choosing what to wear that day….
Thanks for the post. I’ll save “The Design of Everyday Things” for next time…
May 9th, 2008 at 9:15 am
#34 Frank:SHORT SALE at $699,000 MAXWELL PL. for 1BR?
700k for a 1 bedroom condo in Hoboken? Insane!!!
May 9th, 2008 at 9:16 am
# 4 ““A $600 check isn’t enough to turn things around,” said Goldstein. “It took so much to wilt consumer confidence, that it’s not going to be rebuilt real fast.””
How about $1,000.00 for everyone just before Christmas? Or better yet, we can send everyone $1,000,000.00. Then there will be no poverty. “Every man a king, every man a king, for you can be a millionaire.” Hughey Long would be proud, his vision come to reality.
May 9th, 2008 at 9:18 am
# 8 “Metro would come back with new money and build what is expected to be a less extravagant structure.”
Maybe they should just errtet a modern-day Hooverville.
May 9th, 2008 at 9:19 am
# 10 “The rules would require a “risk-based pricing” notice to consumers when they receive more expensive credit terms than those offered to individuals with better credit histories.”
What am I missing? Isn’t this just the essence of banking?
May 9th, 2008 at 9:20 am
Economist article,
Congress can’t stop people losing their homes, but it can do a little to help
It is not hard to see why politicians are so keen to help. For all the hope that the worst may be over in financial markets, the housing mess is getting nastier. Nationally, house prices have fallen between 3% and 13% depending on which index you look at. And they have further to sink. The stock of unsold homes is huge and the ratio of prices to rents suggests that property is still expensive (see article). Some 1.5m households went into foreclosure in 2007, up 50% from the year before. And with 9m people owing more than their house is worth, that figure is likely to soar.
Criticism notwithstanding, the plan is hardly a bail-out. Lenders would have to write down their loans to 85% of the current value of a house. Borrowers would pay a fee for the insurance and give up a share of any later price rise to the government. By reinsuring more mortgages, the government would take on more risk, but the bean-counters at the Congressional Budget Office (CBO) put the explicit subsidy at about $1.7 billion over five years—a fiscal rounding error rather than a reckless handout. Yet because the plan involves little government cash and is voluntary, its effects will be modest, helping half a million households at most avoid foreclosure, according to the CBO. For all the hoopla, the FHA plan will be a useful addition to the anti-foreclosure tool-kit. But it will do less than its supporters hope—or its detractors fear.
A useful counterpart to the FHA plan would be a federal effort to streamline the states’ convoluted foreclosure laws. You will not be surprised to hear that no politician has supported that.
May 9th, 2008 at 9:21 am
# 11 What do people think about this? I know Mica pretty well, so I don’t know that I have the ability to look at the proposal clearly.
May 9th, 2008 at 9:22 am
#35 BC Bob: The weaker-than-expected trade gap implies an upward revision to the 0.6% first estimate for first-quarter gross domestic product growth.
And this will be spun as good news.
May 9th, 2008 at 9:23 am
I don’t understand Asbury.
Yes, the Metro stoppage was a major setback.
But to let them continue building just for the sake of building? Does Asbury really need a second-rate project (or worse)?
Lowering the cost is easy, strip the building of any architectural merit as well as quality.
This is a decision they’ll need to live with for a long time, they better be sure this is the right direction for Asbury.
I’m not so sure it is.
May 9th, 2008 at 9:23 am
Americans split on homeowner bailout - poll
The poll finds 49% of Americans believe such homeowners should receive special treatment, while 48% feel homeowners should not get assistance. Three percent of those polled had no opinion.
May 9th, 2008 at 9:24 am
A tenet I follow is “what you pay attention to will grow.”
In a classroom setting, the idea is to downplay poor behavior and find what is going well - focus on that….build on that…
Have high expectations…
Taken into our financial world, the government is planning to reward (focus) on those behaving poorly and punish (ignore) those who followed the rules. Not sound “behavioral economics” in my opinion.
May 9th, 2008 at 9:26 am
speaking of empires.
from the Baltimore chronicle
Portrait of an Oil-Addicted Former Superpower
How Rising Oil Prices Are Obliterating America’s Superpower Status
by Michael T. Klare
Nineteen years ago, the fall of the Berlin Wall effectively eliminated the Soviet Union as the world’s other superpower. Yes, the USSR as a political entity stumbled on for another two years, but it was clearly an ex-superpower from the moment it lost control over its satellites in Eastern Europe.
Less than a month ago, the United States similarly lost its claim to superpower status when a barrel crude oil roared past $110 on the international market, gasoline prices crossed the $3.50 threshold at American pumps, and diesel fuel topped $4.00. As was true of the USSR following the dismantling of the Berlin Wall, the USA will no doubt continue to stumble on like the superpower it once was; but as the nation’s economy continues to be eviscerated to pay for its daily oil fix, it, too, will be seen by increasing numbers of savvy observers as an ex-superpower-in-the-making.
May 9th, 2008 at 9:26 am
# 66 The city has been down for so long thay are grasping at anything. It is sad. They should not allow any building on that first beach block. It will forever destroy the best draw the city has.
I once knew a guy who had very low self esteem and had not dated much. The first woman who showed moderate interest in him (no prize, and seriously flawed psyche) swept him off his feet and he raced to marry her because something better might never come his way. He has been a miserable wrech ever since. Asbury is, in essence, doing the same thing. It is sad.
May 9th, 2008 at 9:28 am
ATG 53 As you have been here a lot longer than I you have seen this. Coming from Hudson 10 yr ago you can imagine my culture shock. I guess it was worse so I defer but plenty of WT on streets of Sussex for my tastes still. Been over to Ogdensburg lately
hit the local bar on main or Docs on 23 between Hamburg & Sussex. Really scary. If you stay in your own little piece of the world it’s fine but if you go around you run into these people. Try the Double S dinner on RTE 23 good food, good prices just people watch & listen, backwards plus.
May 9th, 2008 at 9:29 am
“And this will be spun as good news.”
3b,
Exactly. Like usual, they’ll get their jollies off on the headline and ignore the details.
May 9th, 2008 at 9:29 am
shore 64
any expansion and or improvement in mass transit is a very big step in the right direction. the size of the step depends on the level of incompetence and graft involved
May 9th, 2008 at 9:30 am
Materially changing the design of the project will likely mean that existing contract holders will pull out of the project. Why close on a contract for something that is different from what you intended to purchase?
This will be impossible to overcome, new potential buyers will be weary to sign on with Metro, for fear that they’ll stop work again.
Asbury should pull the plug.
May 9th, 2008 at 9:30 am
#63 SG
“Lenders would have to write down their loans to 85% of the current value of a house.”
Am I reading this right. Does that mean if someone took out a zero down mtg for 500k and the house dropped in value to 420k the lender is supposed to write down the loan balance to 357k?
Why would a lender want to guarantee themselves a 30% loss before fees? Where’s the lender’s incentive, especially if the loan has been securitized?
May 9th, 2008 at 9:31 am
# 72 AND, people more concerned with what LaBron or Sahaq did in a basketball game, or who is the points leader in Winston Cup standinge, or yadd yadda, will not notice the bull$h!t spin.
May 9th, 2008 at 9:32 am
#66 - I think they’re just trying to prevent a skeletal hulk from sitting on the beach for another 20yrs. They know how that story ends already.
You are right, the beach is their best draw and they are grasping at straws. How many of the existing condos built in the last 2 yrs are even occupied?
May 9th, 2008 at 9:34 am
3b, (59)
700k for a 1 bedroom condo in Hoboken? Insane!!!
To be fair, it is almost 1200 sq. ft. But you should check out what some of the other units are asking.
May 9th, 2008 at 9:35 am
Youtube Lobbying.
Housing Bailouts
YouTube can be great tool for Gen Y folks to participate in political discussions. I think this is where MSM is lacking significantly. Few weeks ago, I was giving an idea to Internet portal site product manager, on having online video debate with Bloggers and Experts.
May 9th, 2008 at 9:35 am
#66 grim,
Who would want to buy luxury condos in Asbury? It would be an incredibly long commute to NY or the corporate parks in North Jersey and there’s no way I would send my kids to its public school.
I’d much rather focus on Deal, Avon, the Elberon section of Long Branch, or Manasquan.
May 9th, 2008 at 9:36 am
Cindy,
I like the cut of your jib.
May 9th, 2008 at 9:36 am
#71
I was at Doc’s on 23 a couple of months ago and had a great time. It was karioke night and saw one outstanding young lady singer. The place was packed everyone was drinking, holding their booze well, polite and well behaved- my definition of real class - but maybe I’m just high class white trash myself.
May 9th, 2008 at 9:39 am
Ket,
I am all for high-speed rail. It is absurd that one cannot travel from Chicago to NY or Boston or Washington in about 5-6 hours via train. When we can, the need for airport construction will end. Downtown to downtown has a big appeal to this citizen. At this point, if a drive takes seven hours or less, I drive instead of fly. Bythe time one takes into account driving to an airport, parking, getting checked in, stripping down for security, the flkight time, getting a rental car or limo at the other end (not to mention the liklihood of delays), it just does not make time sense to fly. If there were a high-speed rail alternative, I would be all for it.
May 9th, 2008 at 9:40 am
ATG/MIW,
Ever go to Gyp’s?
May 9th, 2008 at 9:43 am
84
Yep, never had a problem there. I think its for sale now if your looking for an investment. A couple of other decent, unfancy places around your brother are the Layton Hotel and Third Base Pub.
May 9th, 2008 at 9:46 am
# 77 We looked at a penthouse unit at Weasley Lake last year. It was lovely, and had a huge pattio overlooking both the lake and the ocean. BUT, across the street was the South Bronk, circa 1975. The city would do well to focus on townhomes and 3-4 story condos (maybe go for an Art Deco theme) priced in the 300-400k range.
I have no issue walking the boards over there during the day, but a few blocks west is still dangerous in the daylight. At night? Fuggettabout it.
The commute is hell, but there are already so many people down the Shore making even longer ones that it is not the deal breaker. Buying into a city where there are so many serious threats to safety and economic viability is THE problem.
May 9th, 2008 at 9:47 am
28 chi
“Clot 21 Most have no clue. Had a guy blame high fuel prices on the Jews controlling the world.MIW: Rev. Wright?”
Or Billy Graham, Pat Robertson, Falwell, Hagee, etc. That list is long.
We’ve got a lot of deeply sick “preachers” in this country.
May 9th, 2008 at 9:49 am
BC No never heard of it not in my neck of the woods. I’m north of your bro a ways. 15 min to NY or PA from my loc.
Catch you all later time to go to work O bother.
May 9th, 2008 at 9:55 am
I was at Doc’s on 23 a couple of months ago and had a great time.
If this talk ever moves down 23 more towards Jiggs, I’m in.
May 9th, 2008 at 9:57 am
(81) Thanks, Rich..and thanks for all of the info.. I turned to this site last year to learn more about economics but obviously, a person learns so much more…
and laughs..
May 9th, 2008 at 9:58 am
From Reuters:
Fremont General says may file for bankruptcy
Fremont General Corp FMNT.PK, which is selling assets after regulators ordered it last year to stop subprime mortgage lending, on Friday said it may file for bankruptcy protection.
The company, which has already agreed to sell substantially all assets of its Fremont Investment & Loan unit, said that absent another “viable transaction” for remaining assets, it expects to file for Chapter 11 protection from creditors.
May 9th, 2008 at 10:02 am
“Median closing prices on homes on Long Island and in Queens have gone up for the first time in months, just as the house-buying season goes into full swing.
According to the Multiple Listing Service of Long Island, which also covers Queens, it went up in April to $415,000 from $409,000 in March. Some agents had predicted the median closing figure would fall to a four-year low of $400,000.”
http://www.newsday.com/business/ny-bzprice0508,0,7008718.story
May 9th, 2008 at 10:03 am
BC ATG How about we hit DOC’s,BC get your bro & come on up. Sussex gtg. ATG I’m not afraid for my safety just a lot of rednecks round here. Have a drink there one afternoon it’s different.
May 9th, 2008 at 10:08 am
#86 - I know the area to the west looks scary, I’m not too sure how bad it is in actuality though (crime stats, etc.). Of course, to a great degree the perception rules on this.
Even without the town-homes and condos there are so many houses for sale in Asbury currently I can’t see the justification for building anything.
I know the places you were looking at. There was a lot of very hip/pretty places built in Asbury over the past 3 years or so hoping the town would become a Hoboken/JC/Billyburg. They unfortunately priced it as if it already was there.
No gentrification process, straight from burned out dive to $800k lofts.
I looked at a 1100sf soho type loft in Asbury about 2 years ago. A really cool place but they wanted $600k for it which was absurd. All I could think after hearing the price was; “This is going to be some real nice section 8 housing in 3 years”.
The lofts were still for sale 6 months ago at just over $500k. I haven’t bothered to check since.
There is a Wegman’s in the area though, so they do have that going for them.
May 9th, 2008 at 10:12 am
I’ve just been federally stimulated.
US TREASURY 220 TAX REFUND PPD $725.70
I have a sudden urge to purchase fine Italian leather shoes at Nieman Marcus.
May 9th, 2008 at 10:15 am
# 94 “There is a Wegman’s in the area though, so they do have that going for them”
Indeed. Turn west nat Convevtion Hall and head straight out Sunset.
May 9th, 2008 at 10:18 am
#93 sounds good to me.
I live in Stillwater and work in Newton so I’m usually around.
May 9th, 2008 at 10:21 am
Stimulus payment pending. I will finally get my plasma tv — not.
May 9th, 2008 at 10:25 am
Congressman says his mail ran ‘50 to 1′ against mortgage rescue
California Rep. Kevin McCarthy (pictured) tells the L.A. Times that his constituent mail on the Barney Frank mortgage rescue plan was running “50 to 1: ‘Don’t bail these people out.’ ” McCarthy, a Republican from Bakersfield, voted against the bill.
May 9th, 2008 at 10:26 am
Wow I lurk and see a Gyp’s Tavern and Layton hotel reference. I have had a a few in each of those gin joints. Checked in deer at both also. Sadly the deer were unable to imbibe with me as they were deceased.
May 9th, 2008 at 10:29 am
ATG off of 521 like everyone else or 617?
May 9th, 2008 at 10:31 am
Just called the White House to express my opinion on the housing bailout bill. I also asked that the bill be veto’ed by the President.
They were very cordial. Give them a call.
1-202-456-1414
May 9th, 2008 at 10:34 am
I think all folks who disagree with bailout, should just send a fax to senator and house member and jam their fax machines. All you need to do is use a free service like this one.
Send a fax
May 9th, 2008 at 10:36 am
101
Out in the woods near five points. I hope you had a drink for the deer, even if you didn’t have a drink with them. Still, they’re just rats with hooves to me.
May 9th, 2008 at 10:36 am
Grim - Is it possible to have some standard text that can be used in fax.
May 9th, 2008 at 10:38 am
Got my refund… 1600$.
It is about 0.5% of starter house price in central Jersey.
well, to get to 20% downpayments all people need is 39 more rebates.
Ohh wait I filled my car yesterday…
P.S. It is really $hitty way to start your day by coming out in the morning rain and seeing two flat tires on the same side of you car.
May 9th, 2008 at 10:39 am
Grim (74),
Asbury as a City is on the verge of bankruptcy and desparately needs any new ratables they can get. In a real estate development climate like this one it is necessary that there is some visible progress in the form of construction to keep the ball rolling in order for the redevelopment to keep it’s momentum up. Also, trust me, this project was shopped around to everyone post the Dec. 7th stoppage with little to no interest generated. This block holds the curse of being the old C-8 block with the skeleton of the former redevelopments failure. The City will do anything to avoid this perception of failure from repeating.
Asbury does need some iconic buildings along the waterfront but starting out with one this high-end this early in the project was definitely a mistake. The market was just not there to support the sales pace needed to keep the Esparanza going. Metro’s sales, however, were actually the strongest in the redevelopment area despite shockingly high sale prices. You’re absolutely right though, it’ll be hard to convince anyone of Metro’s solvency once they re-open for sales……..
Also, construction prices sky rocketed since this project began. I would imagine they blew their budget very early on. The building definitely needs to be scaled back. I looked at a 900 square foot one-bedroom there on the lowest residential level with no view. The base price was $485K with $7K in taxes and a $600 monthly maitenance fee……….
May 9th, 2008 at 10:44 am
uh oh
Babysitter is sick.
Grim, you get to meet ALL the Little Patients today!
May 9th, 2008 at 10:44 am
Shore (86),
You’re right, developers definitely priced themselves out of the game. At $350K a thoughtfully laid out 2-bedroom would sell well. the condos at Wesley Lake have great terraces, I have some issues with their layout and fit and finish though. The boardwalk and Cookman Ave. have definitely come a long way. I jog on the boardwalk at night and have never had or seen any issues but you definitely need to stay out of the area West of Main and South of Asbury Ave. after dark……….
May 9th, 2008 at 10:48 am
njp,
I’ll bring cupcakes.
May 9th, 2008 at 10:48 am
what is ATG?
May 9th, 2008 at 10:51 am
Pain
are a rifle or bow hunter?
May 9th, 2008 at 10:56 am
MIW / ATG,
I just moved out of the Southern Sussex area and I have a few thoughts. The biggest issue I saw especially in places like Sparta was the clash of cultures and class. Sparta is a great example. It has all its McMansions with the former “DINKis”. The Lake Mowhak crowd, that think living on the lake makes them better than the rest and so called WT living in the more affordable housing on the Byram side.
Its always the kids that are the great leveler and force the people to interact. My great sport was watching couples like these two trying to get along at social gathering because their kids are in the same class at school. Note names and bios made up, but you should get the picture.
Billy and Sue are high school sweethearts. When they left school, Billy started driving a tow truck, Sue was a cashier at ShopRite. Married at 22, Tyler came along at 23 and Janie at 25.
Dale and Samantha met at Penn State, where he ran track for a scholorship to law school. She was a straight A student studying Psycology as her long term plan was to be a special needs teacher after she takes time off from her corporate career to have kids. Married at 28, Mattias at 33 Lilabeth at 35.
The number of things they have in common outside of the kids is probably zero.
Two things that really struck me in the dive bars (yes I saw a few of them). The number of people that knew someone busted for DUI or had a previous themselves. The second was the number that voted republican, because gun control would restrict their right to hunt.
May 9th, 2008 at 10:58 am
51 Shore
Thanks.
That entire rant is one heard frequently in the Patient household.
This bit is the most important, IMO: “military power is dependent on economic power; if we do not get our economic house in order, our military power will shrink faster than British military power did after WWII.”
And wasn’t this recently proved true on Wall Street?:
“As cocky as we have been in recent years, I don’t expect the rest of the world to be kind to us should the storm come.”
May 9th, 2008 at 11:00 am
55 BC
“My brother lives there, on the lake. He trades the markets on his dock.”
We’ve got somewhat similar brothers, so it would seem.
May 9th, 2008 at 11:02 am
BC: When are you starting Trade school?
May 9th, 2008 at 11:04 am
When Small Biz Can’t Get a Loan
With lending tight, more entrepreneurs are turning to controversial “merchant cash advances”
May 9th, 2008 at 11:07 am
67 SG
It always boggles my mind that the MSM reports on poll results like that without even bothering to say what the poll question was.
May 9th, 2008 at 11:09 am
“BC: When are you starting Trade school?’
SG,
I need all the schooling I can get.
May 9th, 2008 at 11:14 am
Comp Killer (I think).
From today’s newspaper
9 Henry St., Bridgewater, NJ, sold for $735,000
Courier News
The zestimate on that house is $1.01 million. That is 30% less than reduced zestimate value.
Not sure about past sales though.
May 9th, 2008 at 11:16 am
A Weak Dollar and Sluggish U.S. Economy Accelerate Toyota’s Retreat to Emerging Markets
http://www.moneymorning.com/2008/05/08/a-weak-dollar-and-sluggish-u.s.-economy-accelerate-toyotas-retreat-to-emerging-markets/
Toyota says it’s not profitable to do business in USA as the country is going broke.
May 9th, 2008 at 11:16 am
Hey I have an actually real estate related questions. I am putting in a new concrete driveway next week. Old one is close to 55 years old and is pretty cracked up.
Anyhow how many inches of base is necessary, you know how many inches of ground up bricks concrete etc. and how many inches of concrete on top is standard. My wifes baby hauling machine weighs 2.5 tons so I am worried if the guy does not do enough it will crack again.
May 9th, 2008 at 11:20 am
“They were very cordial. Give them a call.”
Done.
May 9th, 2008 at 11:22 am
http://calculatedrisk.blogspot.com/2008/05/fremont-general-may-file-bk.html
bye bye Freemont.
May 9th, 2008 at 11:22 am
122 Patient
Auf Deutsch?
May 9th, 2008 at 11:23 am
106 Al
Oh man. Sorry.
I’m a big fan of Fix-A-Flat myself.
May 9th, 2008 at 11:23 am
“They were very cordial. Give them a call.”
Will they transfer a call to Bergabe?
May 9th, 2008 at 11:23 am
Daniel Gale realty which is usually very snooty. Actually made me come in for an in person interview to see if I was worthy to be shown homes and had to answer detailed questions about job and income three years ago. Well now they are sending out fliers for Friday night twilight open houses. Flier says visit and sign in on all four open houses this friday night and be entered in sweepstake to win a valuable prize!!! They went from Park Ave marketing to sleezy orlando time share marketing in the course of two years. I give Daniel Gale credit, he you gotta do what you gotta do.
May 9th, 2008 at 11:24 am
# 109 I dont like it south of 5th. or west of Heck (except up between sunset and Deal Lake).
The redevelopment of the block between Kingsley and Bergh with commercial (restaurants, pubs, night clubs) abd the development of the block between Bergh and Heck with 2-3 story townhouses, and the block between Heck and Grand with 4-6 story condos is the ticket to the salvation of Asbury. The next west block would then be ideal for the 12-15 story condos, later on; folks would be closer to the train and yet still have nice views of the ocean.
May 9th, 2008 at 11:24 am
110 grim
“I’ll bring cupcakes.”
three little straitjackets might be better.
May 9th, 2008 at 11:26 am
# 121 I would not be comfortable with less than 6″, but I am not an engineer.
May 9th, 2008 at 11:27 am
51 Shore
Thanks.
That entire rant is one heard frequently in the Patient household.
May 9th, 2008 at 11:29 am
# 51 It is just about to the point where I am willing to suffer the business disruption and throw my hat into a congressional run. Not quite there, but there comes a time when one realizes that the people running things either do not have a clue or don’t care.
May 9th, 2008 at 11:29 am
# 131, that was supposed to be
May 9th, 2008 at 11:29 am
125
lost
Naturlich. Immer auf Deutsch wann Ich der Fuhrer angerufen muB.
May 9th, 2008 at 11:31 am
I’ll bring cupcakes.
Is your actual name really Jim Dunnam?
May 9th, 2008 at 11:33 am
133 shore
Particularly the bit about economic vs. military might.
May 9th, 2008 at 11:34 am
grim, LOVE that book!
The Design of Everyday Things.
May 9th, 2008 at 11:34 am
Americans are still buying nearly 2 billion a day more from the rest of the world then they are selling. Dollars are still our #1 export.(hence, worldwide infation)
meanwhile the Stupid foreigners are still sending Americans 2 billion a day of things in return for a bunch of paper.
How could anyone with common sense really believe that this is sustainable.
The only question is how long will it last and how bad will things be when it stops?
May 9th, 2008 at 11:37 am
#113
Yes the entire socioeconomic spetrum is represented in Sussex. I see that as a good thing, though.
In my town (pop. about 4500) there are multimillonaires living near other people’s houses that look like little slices of Appalachia, and everything in between.
Yes, the Republicans command the living-dead vote in Sussex, even in Sparta which I like to call the Beverly Hills of Sussex County.
I’m a Republican, not because I have any particular allegence to what the party represents, but because I want to vote in the local Republican primaries which are the defacto generel elections for local office holders. There are alot of people out here like me.
May 9th, 2008 at 11:37 am
from 102
Grim says-
Just called the White House to express my opinion on the housing bailout bill.
Can we call at 3 AM? :)
May 9th, 2008 at 11:37 am
# 136 The number of people who do not realize this link astounds me. AND, with the way we have been chewing up our military machinery in the sandbox it will take amazing sums to rebuild our capability. The Air Mobility Command assets are being run into the ground, attack aircraft are being worn out, ground equipment is being destroyed by the pace of operations and the sand.
We are in deep trouble with our equipment and it is not getting any attention.
May 9th, 2008 at 11:38 am
# 140 If you call at that hour you will only make an impact if you use the Signal operator.
May 9th, 2008 at 11:39 am
#128,
Anything west of Bergh is not in the redevelopment area…… Besides the main draw to Asbury is the beach/boardwalk. Highrise density should be concentrated on the oceanfront blocks with density stepped down on the blocks between Kingsley & Bergh and Kingsley and Webb. The train station is not a big selling point if you ask me. It’s not an easy or quick commute anywhere north as you need to transfer in Long Branch and there are no express trains. Most people that will buy in Asbury will buy as a second home because of proximity to the beach. Putting highrises on Grand Ave. 4 blocks from the beach doesn’t make any sense from a planning perspective, especially since that would put 15 story towers next to single family homes. Good luck getting that through the planning board.
May 9th, 2008 at 11:41 am
if i recall correctly, citi has about 2 trillian asset. $500B fire sale would reduce its asset by 25%. more write-down is expected. i thought citi will tank at least 10% from here but today it is amazingly strong.
By the way, i keep my call made last weekend. long: gold mining, food. sell: financials, energy stocks.
May 9th, 2008 at 11:41 am
“Good luck getting that through the planning board.”
Over the years, it appears, at least from a distance, that all it takes for that is a thick envelope.
May 9th, 2008 at 11:44 am
John Re Concrete driveway:
i am not a structural engineer, but the answer depends on the characteristics of the ground you are pouring the concrete on.
Although 6 inches of poured concrete on a base should be pretty solid. consider that your 2.5 ton SUV is only exerting about 300 PSI ( pounds per square inch)of pressure on the slab ( a rough estimate) and standard concrete can support about 1500 PSI at a minimum. Your biggest concern is the slab flexing over soft ground. flexure of the slab will cause excessive cracking and crumbling.
Unless you are going to park a bulldozer on your drive, then weight probably isnt an issue
May 9th, 2008 at 11:47 am
# 143 “the main draw to Asbury is the beach/boardwalk.”
Agreed. But for Asbury to thrive it needs daytrippers who come into town, spend $ and then leave without using much in the way of town services. High rise development between Kingsley and Ocean will all but kill that. And, any development that goes straight up, instead of gradual step-ups in height, reduces the number of blocks that can have desirable development. In the block or two between the ocean and the high rises one needs to build lower structures that also have a view of the water. The high rises can put parking and mechanical services in the lower floors and still allow each apartment to see the water and sunrises over the lower structures. Once the high rises go up close to the water, the chances of attracting the other development drops.
May 9th, 2008 at 11:47 am
Well, lunch is over. It is time to oppress the masses.
May 9th, 2008 at 11:50 am
Kettle mainly bow, but I would hunt with a spear if they let me just to get a few extra days in the woods.
Just faxed our lovely senator from NJ. I hope that annoys the corrupt twit. I can’t believe 49% of the population supports the housing bill. Who knew 49% of the population worked in real estate and its’ support industries. We are so screwed.
May 9th, 2008 at 11:50 am
WARNING- OVERSIMPLIFIED MATH TO FOLLOW
If the govt wants to mess with the free market to stimulate the housing market, how about legislating the differential between what the banks can borrow at and then charge? If they borrow at 2%, then they can only charge a prime borrower with 20% downpayment (OK, so that’s me) 3%. Let me tell you, that would simulate me into buying right now.
But how would that help the banks for their past mistakes you ask? It wouldn’t, so it won’t happen.
May 9th, 2008 at 11:52 am
Shore,
We just disagree on the whole urban planning process, no sense in us arguiung over it. We’ll just have to wait and see what happens.
It looks like we’ll have to wait a while though…………….
May 9th, 2008 at 11:52 am
As big as the news is on Citi going bust–foreclosed on—AIG is bigger. AIG’s kaput will be depressionary!!!!!!!
Why?
AIG is loaded with PENSION FUNDS going bad.
Hello Boomers!
AIG had to take $9B out of their risky investments to put it back into their safe money market funds–as they were loaded with subprimes.
If the money market funds were bad how about their risky investments?
And they took $9B from those funds—-OH—nice–those funds now are evern RISKIER.
Remember the Florida Pension Fund–the ultra safe money market fund that was at $60B and went to $20B and was frozen as people got their money out as it was loaded with subprimes?
Well AIG is like that Florida Fund—–get ready for the run on the bank.
May 9th, 2008 at 11:53 am
134) lol. whereas i just talk really slow and really loud.
May 9th, 2008 at 11:53 am
134 Patient
Er ist mein Fuerher nicht.
May 9th, 2008 at 11:53 am
Citi
May 9th, 2008 at 11:54 am
WARNING- OVERSIMPLIFIED MATH TO FOLLOW
If the govt wants to mess with the free market to stimulate the housing market, how about legislating the differential between what the banks can borrow at and then charge? If they borrow at 2%, then they can only charge a prime borrower with 20% downpayment (OK, so that’s me) 3%. Let me tell you, that would simulate me into buying right now.
But how would that help the banks for their past mistakes you ask? It wouldn’t, so it won’t happen.
Ray C,
Great math. You forgot one small thing. INFLATION!!!!!!!!
May 9th, 2008 at 11:55 am
So if I have to take my money out of Citibank where do I put it? The bank of Serta Perfect Sleeper?
May 9th, 2008 at 11:55 am
142 shore
The hidden cost of the war is insane.
May 9th, 2008 at 11:56 am
Make money
What inflation? Remember, I don’t eat food or use gas to fuel my car.
May 9th, 2008 at 11:58 am
Happy Friday All,
I anyone could help, looking for addresses and histories on these 2 houses - mls #2808067 and #2818774
thanks in advance
May 9th, 2008 at 12:00 pm
Make [138],
Our # 1 import is capital. Our # 1 export is inflation. How’s that for a scoreboard.
May 9th, 2008 at 12:02 pm
149) it actually makes perfect sense. 50% of the population has to have an IQ of less than 100, right?
less flip answer: people are selfish, and for good survival reasons. i think society/culture is defined by the groups it gets individuals to identify with and sacrifice some of the selfishness for. nationalism is just another word for selfish about a big group of geographically determined mes, right?
the bigger a group you can get ppl to identify with, the “better” for the individuals in it, usually and so far (i think). that identification has eroded, for whatever reason(s) (both in the small time frame and large time frame)… right now, people who are paying attention and easily frightened are hoarding…resources, attention, whatever. surviving the winter based on how much you eat over the summer. even if that means eating someone else’s stash. ’cause (to some people all of the time, and all of the people some of the time) it’s about survival.
May 9th, 2008 at 12:05 pm
RaC,
Good point. Send Barney and Dodd an E-mail and watch it be debated on the floor by next week.
Here’s another “great” idea:
Tell them to CUT the middle man and have the gov’t offer the mortgage themselves. they end up buying the junk anyway.
Give a 30yr mortgege at the 10 yr yield with no closing cost.
May 9th, 2008 at 12:06 pm
Make [138],
Our # 1 import is capital. Our # 1 export is inflation. How’s that for a scoreboard.
If you ask me life is great.
May 9th, 2008 at 12:06 pm
149/163
Re the bailout poll - the numbers on this issue seem to fluctuate wildly. It’s all in how the question is asked. Without knowing what the question was the elicited 49% approval, I don’t know whether to credit the poll at all.
For all I know, the question was: “Assuming the bailout plan does not create moral hazard, does not cost you a penny and is necessary in order for America not to fall into the ocean, do you (a) support the bailout or (b) wish to see your neighbors shoved out into the street on a cold rainy night with no clothing for the baby?”
May 9th, 2008 at 12:13 pm
“The number of companies defaulting on their junk-rated debt and filing for bankruptcy in North America is running at its fastest pace in five years amid the slowing economy and contraction in credit markets.”
“The US is leading the global default rate for companies, said Ken Emery, senior vice-president at Moody’s.”
http://www.ft.com/cms/s/0/bfe01f0e-1d36-11dd-82ae-000077b07658.html
May 9th, 2008 at 12:16 pm
When it come comes to AIG,
The silence on CNBC and Bloomberg is deafening
May 9th, 2008 at 12:27 pm
“The silence on CNBC and Bloomberg is deafening”
They normally turn horse manure into filet mignon.
May 9th, 2008 at 12:34 pm
A great quote
“Economics is run by people who didn’t[sic] understand it.”
http://www.guardian.co.uk/business/2008/may/08/bankofenglandgovernor.economics
May 9th, 2008 at 12:35 pm
Does anyone else here find it disturbing how unaware most people are of how precarious our current national economic situation is? I usually get the ” but we are america we cant go broke ( or fail etc)”. Apparently numbers no longer matter
May 9th, 2008 at 12:36 pm
I’m aware kettle1.
May 9th, 2008 at 12:38 pm
BC,
did you notice fast money the other day? they actually discussed why oil was up due to fundamentals and not due to some evil brown skinned people
May 9th, 2008 at 12:40 pm
For all I know, the question was: “Assuming the bailout plan does not create moral hazard, does not cost you a penny and is necessary in order for America not to fall into the ocean, do you (a) support the bailout or (b) wish to see your neighbors shoved out into the street on a cold rainy night with no clothing for the baby?”
Nudge
May 9th, 2008 at 12:40 pm
indeed you are stu,
most people on this board are we just differ in our opinions of degree . but it seems to me that people who i normally consider very intelligent and open minded poo-poo the real implications of our current mess.
May 9th, 2008 at 12:41 pm
Kettle,
Macke’s been saying ever since it broke 100 that if it was a stock and people were looking at the chart they’d be all over it bit for some reason they say “it’s oil” so there must be something wrong.
I am out now, got out the last time it got near 120, hoping for a pullback.
May 9th, 2008 at 12:42 pm
kettle [171],
It could be worse. Try asking them their thought on currency exchange rates.
May 9th, 2008 at 12:42 pm
hehe
i am in for a while, but then i doubt that surprises you.
May 9th, 2008 at 12:43 pm
Webb’s figures show wholesale prices on big SUVs such as Chevrolet Tahoes, Ford Expeditions and Toyota Sequoias are down 17% from a year ago. Full-size pickups have fallen as much as 15%, Webb says.
http://www.usatoday.com/money/autos/2008-05-08-suvs-resale-value_N.htm
May 9th, 2008 at 12:45 pm
BC 177
to be fair how much has the average individual ever been taught about exchange and its implications? Most of what i know i have had to teach myself by seeking out books on the topic. Still, not a good thing
May 9th, 2008 at 12:45 pm
grim
“Nudge”
hee!
exactly
May 9th, 2008 at 12:48 pm
171 kettle
Yes.
In spades.
And that’s another reference to Shore’s “american exceptionalism”
or the fool who was going on the other day about the earth’s limitless food-production capacity.
May 9th, 2008 at 12:50 pm
Make money
Here’s another “great” idea:
Tell them to CUT the middle man and have the gov’t offer the mortgage themselves. they end up buying the junk anyway.
Give a 30yr mortgege at the 10 yr yield with no closing cost.
Sure, why not? As long as they are going to meddle, I can root for something that will help me in the short run, even if it eliminates 1000’s of jobs. But then I guess they would have to do away with that pesky mortgage deduction…
I may just move to a Holiday Inn Express and use Zip Cars when I need them. Owning (or should I say buying) things is so last Century.
May 9th, 2008 at 12:54 pm
Kettle,
We don’t teach any financial literacy courses in High School and very littl in College. People are financial iliterates otherwise everyone would vote for Ron Paul and there would be a run at Washington demanding the death sentence for everyone.
I know exactly the day when the Iraq War will end. It’s the day after the foreigners say to the US that we are not willing to provide you with $2B and your credit line is cut off.
I can see McCain address the nation and say,
“For economical reasons we have to withdraw from Iraq and bring back troops from 130 different countries”
and the talking heads on Fox analyzing” No one could have possible saw this coming”
May 9th, 2008 at 12:57 pm
BC,
for your amusement
from
http://ap.google.com/article/ALeqM5iYG8SUnUOR9NfNAI-ZFekXsmN5GwD90I52M00
The world appears to have an insatiable thirst for oil. Millions of barrels of oil are pumped from the Earth each day, but does anyone know the “replenishment” rate? Is the prospect of depleting all the Earth’s oil a legitimate concern, or is new oil being created at a rate which will sustain us “forever”?
Gary Wagner
Morton, Ill.
May 9th, 2008 at 12:59 pm
never mind I just remebered who the 49% were
http://news.yahoo.com/s/ap/20080509/ap_on_re_us/18_kids
May 9th, 2008 at 1:00 pm
185 kettle
Ignorance = bliss
But don’t ask questions….
May 9th, 2008 at 1:00 pm
Who Has Billions in Level 2 Assets?
http://www.minyanville.com/articles/MER-GS-C-jpm-bac-LEH/index/a/17100
May 9th, 2008 at 1:02 pm
re: Asbury
Whoever said that something has to be built on the Metro site, lest another Beirut-esque skeleton remain there for twenty years, is entirely correct. But what I don’t understand is why the developers haven’t considered building rentals, like Long Branch did. People might take a chance on Asbury if they didn’t have to buy, especially given the ridiculous prices.
And the retail/restaurant establishments on Cookman are very nice once you arrive there…after driving or walking down a rather disgraceful-looking Main Street. It shocks me that any sane planner would’ve counted on people wearing blinders—not to mention, perhaps, a bullet-proof vest—before arriving at what is unquestionably the town’s best asset. (Maybe its only asset.)
Meanwhile, here in the Grove, an 86-unit project was given approval to go forward, despite the expressed fears that it won’t be viable because of the economy. Not to worry, we were told, things will be better then…
May 9th, 2008 at 1:04 pm
187 patient,
Sadly that statement is accurate. Its frustrating sometimes to see everyone around you worried about who got kicked off of dancing with the stars and has 0 interest in US international affairs or economics outside the blurb they heard on cnn.
May 9th, 2008 at 1:05 pm
Kettle, I just spit my afternoon coffee all over the monitor. Whenever I think to myself the populus of this country can’t get any dumber some mouth breather spouts a new nugget of idiocy. If you have seen the movie Idiocracy most would think it was a portent of doom instead of a comedy.
May 9th, 2008 at 1:05 pm
186 Pain
ITS NOT A CLOWN CAR!!!
vague perhaps?
May 9th, 2008 at 1:05 pm
pain,
Idocracy was a comdey???? i thought it was a documentary
May 9th, 2008 at 1:08 pm
Quiz from the paranoid side of my brain.
(Those tracking campaign contributions will find this way too easy.)
If we can assume that the current bailout scheme is a snowjob, intended only to educate (and then infuriate) Joe and Jane, what is the true plan to be unveiled in February?
Hint: This plan will *appear* to be a much lesser evil in comparison.
May 9th, 2008 at 1:09 pm
Kettle
FARK photoshop contest? I spend way too much time on the internet.
Sadly I thought the same until I saw Mike Judge wrote and directed it.
May 9th, 2008 at 1:13 pm
Shore Guy #51: Remember when Walter Mondale said this in 1984:
“President Reagan will raise your taxes, and so will I. He won’t tell you. I just did.”
You see how well THAT worked for him.
I read a lot of blogs, and I’m appalled at the number of people who are happy about the stimulus check, and who think that saving thirty bucks over the course of the summer is worth having bridges fall into the rivers over which they cross. It’s because we have always had this ridiculously high standard of living, and to say that we can no longer do this is political suicide. It isn’t JUST the fault of the politicians, it’s the fault of a willfully ignorant, selfish, and greedy population.
May 9th, 2008 at 1:15 pm
#114 nj patient:should the storm come.
The storm is already here my friend.
May 9th, 2008 at 1:16 pm
#123 Done here too.
May 9th, 2008 at 1:18 pm
NJ patient
Nj patient-> boat
US empire -> storm
http://tinyurl.com/4va7pr
May 9th, 2008 at 1:20 pm
Off topic: can anyone from the NYC crowd recommend bars or restaurants in midtown? I’ve got friends in from overseas staying near Times Square and I don’t think we’d like slogging around the city in the rain. Thank