From the Wall Street Journal:
The Biggest Housing Losers
May 12, 2008
You may not know it, dear reader, but Congress is playing you for a sap. During the housing mania, you didn’t lend money at teaser rates to borrowers who couldn’t pay, or buy a bigger house than you could afford. You paid your bills on time. As a reward for that good judgment and restraint, Barney Frank is now going to let you bail out the least responsible bankers and borrowers.
The Massachusetts Democrat’s housing bill passed the House Thursday, and it makes us wish we had splurged like so many others. In the name of helping strapped home buyers, Mr. Frank is giving lenders a chance to pass their worst paper onto Uncle Sugar. If both borrower and lender agree to participate, lenders can accept 85% of the current appraised mortgage value and in return get to dump up to $300 billion of those loans on the Federal Housing Administration (FHA). Guess which loans they are likely to dump?
Looking at the details in Mr. Frank’s 45-page first draft of this bill, FIS Applied Analytics estimated that taxpayer losses could reach as high as $27 billion, more than four times Mr. Frank’s estimate. The next draft, clocking in at 72 pages when it passed Mr. Frank’s committee, was miraculously scored by the Congressional Budget Office at “only” a $2.7 billion cost to taxpayers.
CBO lowballed it in part because it assumed that most people eligible for this assistance will not apply for it. It is true that some lenders may be wary of taking a 15% haircut off the top, but watch out if bankers and borrowers do take the taxpayers up on Mr. Frank’s offer. This is especially likely because at the same time that Mr. Frank touts the lowball estimate, he is also making mortgage servicers an offer they can’t refuse.
…
The plan seems to get more generous by the week, at least if you’re an ally of Mr. Frank. The monster he brought to the floor Thursday runs to hundreds of pages. State governments receive authority to issue $10 billion in tax-exempt bonds to subsidize home purchases and to help subprime borrowers refinance.In a sop to builders, Mr. Frank also expands the low-income housing tax credit, and he creates a new refundable credit for certain home buyers. To help defray the cost to the Treasury, Mr. Frank raises taxes on multinational companies by delaying a scheduled reform. A law set to take effect this year would expand firms’ ability to claim foreign tax credits and thereby avoid double taxation. Mr. Frank would put it off for another year.
…
We can only imagine what else is buried in this tome, which deserves a Presidential veto. But the worst problem remains its invitation for bankers to dump their biggest losers on taxpayers. The Frank plan appears to take care of everyone in the housing market, except the renters and homeowners who lived within their means.
From the APP:
N.J.’s return on U.S. taxes remains low
It’s long been a fact of political life in New Jersey: The state pays more in federal taxes than it gets back in federal spending. But expect it to become a campaign issue this year, as it frequently does.
For every federal tax dollar New Jersey sends Washington, the state has been getting back between 57 and 72 cents each year dating back to 1981, according to the Tax Foundation, a watchdog group in the nation’s capital.
That makes New Jersey a perpetual “donor” state because it gets a negative rate of return on the federal taxes it pays.
States such as New Mexico and Mississippi, which are poorer than New Jersey, are top “recipient” states because they typically get back more — twice as much — than what they send to Washington by way of individual, employment and corporate taxes, in addition to other levies that include tobacco and estate taxes.
Jesus help us if Hilary becomes president. I hope some banks are still offering 110% ninja loans cause if the dems win, I need to buy a house I can’t afford, really, really fast !
From the AP:
Tax shortfall may be lower than forecast
A rough week looms for New Jersey’s already cash-strapped budget proposal, but it may not be as bad as what was once feared.
Assembly and Senate budget committees will meet Tuesday and Wednesday to hear new tax collection estimates from state and legislative budget officials.
Most expect the figures — coming amid national and state economic struggles — will predict less tax revenue than expected when Governor Corzine unveiled a $33 billion spending plan in February.
“My expectation, based on how the economy is performing, is that if there are going to be surprises, it’s probably going to be lesser revenues,” Corzine said.
That could make it difficult for legislators to find alternatives to the $2.7 billion in cuts already proposed by the Democratic governor. It could also mean deeper budget cuts would be needed to balance state spending without moves such as a tax increase.
But Senate Budget Chairwoman Barbara Buono expects the shortfall will be $100 million to $200 million — not as bad as the $500 million shortfall Corzine speculated was possible a few weeks ago.
And Buono said the good news is twofold: The projected shortfall for next fiscal year is less than initially thought, and collections for the fiscal year ending June 30 could be about $600 million higher than expected.
From Bloomberg:
HSBC Sets Aside $3.2 Billion for More Bad U.S. Loans
HSBC Holdings Plc, Europe’s biggest bank by market value, set aside a smaller-than-estimated $3.2 billion for bad loans in the U.S. and said first-quarter profit was higher than a year earlier.
“The outlook for the rest of the year remains unusually difficult to foresee in the current environment,” Chairman Stephen Green said today in a statement.
London-based HSBC expects the U.S. economy to slip into a recession as deterioration in the housing market extends into 2009. While first-quarter earnings declined in the U.S., where the bank lost 1.1 billion in 2007, HSBC reported higher pretax profit from the Asia-Pacific region, the Middle East and Latin America. HSBC rose 2.1 percent in London trading.
“The U.S. provisions are less than some of the more aggressive forecasts,” said Simon Maughan, a London-based analyst at MF Global Securities Ltd. “People need remember how strong Asia can be,” said Maughan, who rates the stock “buy.”
From CNN/Money:
5 new rules for home sellers
Rule 1: Get real about price
…
Rule 2: Vet your agent – especially if it’s you
…
Rule 3: Pimp your house – hire a home stager
…
Rule 4: Cash will make your home look even better
…
Rule 5: Underwater? Learn to swim
From CNN/Money:
Mortgage delinquency on the rise
Mortgage delinquencies will continue to rise over the next six to 12 months as home prices decline and economic conditions remain difficult, according to one forecast released Monday.
The Core Mortgage Risk Monitor (CMRM), an index of foreclosure risk compiled by real estate data analyzer First American CoreLogic, increased 16% compared with the same period last year.
CoreLogic analyzes house price trends, foreclosure rates, economic health factors and fraud propensity to predict the chances that future mortgage delinquencies will occur.
The index, which has increased over the last four quarterly reporting periods, is now 47% higher than it was in the first quarter of 2002 when the last recession was winding down.
Nationwide, the markets with highest levels of delinquency risk also had double-digit declines in home prices and weakening labor markets.
“House price depreciation factors are now outweighing economic stress factors,” said Mark Fleming, CoreLogic’s chief economist.
From Bloomberg:
U.K. Producer Prices Rise at Fastest Pace Since 1986
U.K. producer prices climbed at the fastest annual pace since at least 1986 in April as raw-material costs jumped, adding to the case for the Bank of England to moderate the pace of interest-rate cuts.
Prices charged by factories rose 7.5 percent from a year earlier, the most since records began two decades ago, the Office for National Statistics said in London today. Economists predicted 6.4 percent, the median of 26 forecasts in a Bloomberg News survey shows. On the month, prices increased 1.4 percent, also the fastest pace on record.
From MarketWatch:
MBIA Q1 loss $2.41 billion, or $13.03 a share
MBIA says fair value of derivatives down $3.54 billion
From Forbes:
PMI Group swings to hefty 1Q loss on default claims
Mortgage insurer PMI Group says it swung to a first-quarter loss, due to hefty payouts on default claims amid the nation’s subprime mortgage crisis.
Walnut Creek, Calif.-based PMI Group Inc. says losses totaled $274 million, or $3.37 per share, compared with year-ago earnings of $102 million, or $1.16 per share. The latest period includes mortgage insurance losses of $172.5 million due to more claims, added loss reserves and a charge on PMI’s investment in bond insurer FGIC.
Total net premiums written rose to $255.3 million from $244.1 million.
Analysts surveyed by Thomson Financial expected a loss of $1.96 per share on revenue of $288.8 million.
From Bloomberg:
MBIA Posts Loss of $2.4 Billion as Mortgage, CDO Slump Deepens
MBIA Inc., the bond insurer that lost 87 percent of its market value in the past year, posted a net loss of $2.4 billion as the slump in mortgage securities deepened.
The first-quarter net loss was $13.03 a share, compared with a profit of $198.6 million, or $1.46 a share, a year earlier, Armonk, New York-based MBIA said in a regulatory filing today. Unrealized losses from derivatives were $3.58 billion.
The loss was MBIA’s third straight and comes less than three months after the bond insurer successfully retained its AAA credit rating. MBIA, Ambac Financial Group Inc. and the rest of the industry have posted record losses after misjudging the value of collateralized debt obligations and securities backed by home- equity loans they guaranteed. MBIA, once a dominant provider of municipal bond insurance, had 2.5 percent of the market in the quarter, according to Thomson Financial data.
“We’re not out of the woods yet,” said Richard Larkin, senior vice president at Herbert J. Sims & Co. in Iselin, New Jersey. “I’m not sure AAA bond insurers will ever be viewed the same way as in the past.”
“The state pays more in federal taxes than it gets back in federal spending”
I find it always funny when dems complain about unfair taxation. Rich people pay more taxes (unless you are some tax-evading capitalist pig, like Noam Chomsky) and people in NJ have high nominal income.
Re mr Frank: The world would be better place, had Mr Frank continued to run that gay prostitution ring from his apartment, instead of playing with taxpayers money. Well, elections have consequences.
From MarketWatch:
IndyMac posts loss, doesn’t expect see profit this year
IndyMac Bancorp said it swung to a first-quarter loss of $184.2 million, or $2.27 a share, after a year-earlier profit of $52.4 million. But the mortgage finance firm said it was able to trim its loss from the fourth quarter by 64%. It recorded credit provisions of $249 million during the quarter. It doesn’t expect to earn a profit until the current decline in home prices decelerates, which it doesn’t forecast this year.
Bought a certifed used 2006 Accord this weekend. 4 cyl, good on gas, economical. This should last 200k
I’ll be there on Sunday…
New view of the city, in Tour de Elizabeth
Last year’s event drew nearly 300 cyclists
http://www.nj.com/starledger/stories/index.ssf?/base/news-4/1210480537292020.xml&coll=1
13:
I’m looking to do something similar. Been shopping around for some older 4cyl hondas that I can put another 50-75k on.
115 miles a day sucks when you’re getting 17-19mpg.
Jamil 12
“I find it always funny when dems complain about unfair taxation. Rich people pay more taxes (unless you are some tax-evading capitalist pig, like Noam Chomsky) and people in NJ have high nominal income”
You seem to have completely missed the point. Leaving aside the fact that the post didn’t constitute democratic complaining, the issue isn’t about taxation; it’s about spending.
Large negative differentials in states like NJ permit massive overspending in states like Mississippi. It’s not a dem/rep issue: there are NO fiscal conservatives in this country other than maybe Bill Clinton – everyone else is arguing over HOW to spend, not whether to spend.
# 15 Ouch! So you are spending somewhere in the range of $20-25 a day on gas. I wonder what the median commute is for people in the non-train towns. In particular, Monmouth and Ocean Counties. While some folks can make a decent living in Monmouth, without a long commute, Ocen County is devoid of well-paying jobs and there are now folks commuting from the area atound exit 70 up to North Jersey and beyond. I suppose the same is true for Warren and Sussex as well. When one starts spending $500/month on gas to get to work, fuggetabout maint. and depreciation, it has got to make homes in those areas less desirable. Except for retirees, people flocked to the outlying areas because it was less expensive to live, but those assessments of cost were made based on low energy costs. Add to it the dreadful backups on the GSP and the insufficient infrastructure (e.g., Route 9) and the outlying counties begin to look far less appealing.
# 16 “there are NO fiscal conservatives in this country ”
We keep spending (towns, states, federal govt.) as if we are still in the 1950s, rolling in the dough, and no serious competition from overseas. The economic environment has changed and, because things were once a certain way, we seem to expect they will ever be so — or, worse yet, we aere entitled to them ever being so.
Stores that fail to adapt to changing consumer tastes or economic conditions go out out of business. Animals that fail to adapt to changed economic conditions or competitive pressures from other critters go extinct. Why would anyone think it is any different for nations? Just look at the Mongul empire of the Khans, which spread from the Pafic to the Med. Or the Roman Empire, the Spanish or Portugese empires of the 1500s, the British Empire, etc.
History is replete with examples of nations/empires that failed to adapt to changing economic conditions. Particularly relevant to our current situation is the dry rot that infected the Roman Empire. Most folks focus on “forceful invasion” by the “barbarians. The fact is, the “invasion” was welcome at first. The Romans turned a blind eye to residents from across the Danube and Rhine crossing into Roman lands because they would do jobs “Romans did not want to.” Then barbarian service in the legions became a path to citizinship. Eventually, the upper classes became more concerned with how they could make scadds of money and public good be d@mned. Toss in a few ill-advised wars, sucking the treasury dry and even the Goths who rushed in to fill the jobs the lazy Romans would no longer do could not save Rome from itself as politicians warred with each other for temporary political advantage in order to feather their nests and the nests of their friends and associates. Sound familiar? We will never be what we believe ourselves to be unless we behave in the manner that got us there in the first place. Economic strength is the pillar upon which everything else rests, including political strength.
Speaking of gas prices. I haven’t filled up in about two weeks and I just breached $60 a tank. Gas was $3.89 for super and it isn’t even summer driving season. This summer will be brutal.
“there are NO fiscal conservatives in this country other than maybe Bill Clinton -”
Then we had conservatives in charge in congress and they stopped spending. Maybe divided government is the best way to reduce (the growth of) spending.
17 Shore – even the retirees are being hit. My inlaws live in one of the older Active Adult communities in Jackson. They bought into the area in the mid-nineties. Since their develoment was completed, Toll Brothers constructed a fancier Active Adult community across the street, and now K Hovnanian is building 2 more. Since K HOV has to move their units no matter what, they are slashing prices like crazy. My inlaws turned down an offer of 325k FSBO for their home 2 years ago. Last fall they turned down an offer of 280k with a broker. They just relisted at their same ask price from last year, in the hopes of getting that 280k. As there are currently 22 other homes listed in just their community for less then 280k and K HOV is asking around that price for some of the smaller units in their brand new community, we are trying to get them to realize that it just won’t happen. At 75, my father in law has told me, they will just wait out the market, until they can get a fair price for their home. Crazy, especially considering they want to live full time in South Florida, where prices are falling even more than here.
In Florida and NY last week I payed over $4 a gallon, and, not being NJ, that was self serve.
Yeah, it is tough, but my rent is relatively cheap for a nice place… and at the time I got the place, I was concerned with the schools and they’re good. Now that I’m going to be single (she and her son are leaving), it doesn’t really matter.
I was thinking about getting a place closer to work, but for the money, I’ll never get anything 1/2 the size or as nice as this place.
Gator,
The lack of objective analysis with respect to real estate valuation is going to delay the pain causes by selling at lower prices but it will not prevent it. Beyond those who bought at peak and are resisting selling now because they are underwater and will take a real loss, there seem to be many — and Grim, Clot, and others in the industry can likely cast more light on this — who believed that their paper gains were real. As with any investment, unrealized gains cannot be considered money in the bank. “Hey, wadda ya mean my buggy whip factory is not worth what it was five-years ago. We make the best ones, and the horses who use them make far less noise than Mr. Ford’s automobiles.”
Bought a certifed used 2006 Accord this weekend. 4 cyl, good on gas, economical. This should last 200k
congrats.
“In Florida and NY last week I payed over $4 a gallon, ”
that’s nothing. In the last couple of months, I’ve payed about $9 (in Europe) and even in the US, $4.39 (Maui).
25…I get tired of cars to easily to make 200k on one I would think. Oh well. Trading up from the 3 to a 5 series. I believe.
“too easily”….oops.
# 26
Unless the Fed and Treasury start defending the value of the dollar, I suspect we are going to see $5/gallon gas by the end of summer. Allit will take is one decent international incident or a refinery accident in Texas to push us higher than that.
Americans More Negative Than Ever About Their Finances
Even I’ll lend US Dollars at 842%…
http://www.chicagotribune.com/business/chi-sun-payday-loans-may11,0,6075560.story
http://www.nypost.com/seven/05122008/news/regionalnews/trouble_in_li_paradise_110497.htm
Hampton Foreclosures??? Ahh, how times change.
5 series?
If it doesn’t come with an “M” prefix, you might as well be driving John’s Sable.
# 30 It is about time. People have been ignoring the true state of things for too bloody long.
#31 It makes some of the guys I know on the docks look like underachievers.
Jamil
“Then we had conservatives in charge in congress and they stopped spending”
Wrong. Clinton got the budget he wanted over the dead bodies of a republican congress – you don’t recall Gingrich shutting down the government in a budget showdown?
# 32 Did anyone else notice the nubmer of people underwater in Rumson? The Zillow map Grim posted showed a fair number of folks in that paradise in trouble too.
I can’t believe the Post named names, how rude..
Some of the Hampton high rollers feeling the pinch are:
* Janice Becker, a regular on the Southampton village social circuit, is facing foreclosure on her multimillion-dollar Wyandanch Lane property.
* Advertising veteran Ransel Potter is defaulting on a $1.8 million mortgage on an Amagansett parcel.
* Real-estate honcho John Conroy is in lis pendens for a $3.5 million mortgage on a Bridgehampton spread on West Pond Drive.
* Former UBS executive Marc Warren is in lis pendens on a $1 million mortgage for a Mitchells Lane pad in Bridgehampton.
* Investor Roger Thanhauser is trying to sell a home on Main Street in East Hampton village to avoid foreclosure.
Washer/dryer in good condition. Newer driveway & sidewalk. Tenant refrig 5 yrs.
This is part of a description for a house in SI.
Wow, the tennant refrigirator is only five years old, This is amazing I think I’m gonna put an offer for 575K and try to STEAL this one.
http://www.maltzauctions.com/auction_detail.php?ID=383415&v=d#vDetail
Love it when a builder goes bankrupt and they auction off at 25 cents on a dollar.
If it doesn’t come with an “M” prefix, you might as well be driving John’s Sable.
Amen brother Amen.
You had an M5, correct? I believe SAS drives an M5 as well.
37 grim
“How rude”
But in a good way.
# 32 Did anyone else notice the nubmer of people underwater in Rumson?
Shore,
I met a plumbing contractor at a graduation party on sat.. He does a lot of work in East Monmouth. He told me 4 properties, last week, were going back to the bank, in Rumson. All levered up, ws.
Grim,
I have the six. but I had the 5 before the 6.
# 37 Naming names? How gauche. Oh wait, it IS the Post.
Mrs. Shore and I spent the past 8 years wondering how it was that so many people could afford to overspend on RE. As we have all learned, they couldn’t. Not even the small number of people abov us on the economic food chain. Fools and their money SHOULD be parted.
# 43 It is bad enough when people at the lower end of earnings get snookered into believing that RE never declines and if they do not buy RIGHT NOW they will forever be priced out of RE. BUT, when folks who should know better (and if one is in Deal, Rumson, or has a second place in the Hamptons, one by default falls into that category) get snookered, it is very troubling as it points to an overall meltdown in sanity.
when is it time to bottom fish in mon. and ocean counties?
late summer? next spring,,,
Well, I think I will leave the office for a bit and go buy a $6 cup of coffee, just to show the other people on the street that I can and that I am worthy of respect. That is how it works, right?
# 39 “Only 15 Minutes from Monticello Gaming & Raceway & ($500 Million Proposed Full Gaming Casino)”
THIS is supposed to be a plus?
Actually my POS sable has has the DOHC engine which is the same engine used in the base Jaguar. Well for now, who knows what tanta motors will be putting under the hood.
BMWs are just the chevy implala of Europe. Some kind of taxicab?
I remember once years ago in Southampton the joke was: Q. what do you day to a man driving a brand new BMW? A. When does your S class get out of the shop.
That was in the 1980s and it is amazing how far down hill C (chrysler) Class Benzs have fallen and how really good BMWs have risen. I rather have a 5 series over a e class any day.
Just heard the housing meltdown quote of the day, possibly of the year!
” When the going gets tough the tough light a match!” -CNBC 5-12-08
KL
From the Record:
Pascack school district faces breakup
Montvale and Woodcliff Lake have hired an attorney to explore the possibility of seceding from the Pascack Valley Regional School District.
Both districts have set aside $35,000 in their budgets to help pay for an attorney to conduct a feasibility study.
Officials from those towns say their residents are shouldering an unfair burden by paying thousands of dollars more in school taxes than the other sending districts — Hillsdale and River Vale — which send more students.
“We’re getting screwed,” said Woodcliff Lake Mayor Joseph LaPaglia, whose town sent 366 students to the district this year.
Montvale sent 417 students, Hillsdale sent 591 and River Vale sent 550 children.
However, based on a state funding formula, Woodcliff Lake residents pay $27,000 per student, Montvale pays $22,000, River Vale pays $16,000 and Hillsdale pays $14,000 per student, LaPaglia said.
btw, why it is ok to confiscate excess profits from oil companies (8% ROI) but not from home-speculators? Shouldn’t the Obama politbyroo set the acceptable, uniform profit margings for everybody (say, 5%).
“It isn’t right that oil companies are making record profits at a time when ordinary Americans are going into debt trying to pay rising energy costs,” he said. “That’s why we’ll put a windfall profits tax on oil companies and use it to help Indiana families to pay their heating and cooling bills and reduce energy costs”.
# 52 “27,000 per student” !! “$14,000 per student ”
Heck, how long will it be before someone suggests that the towns just close the schools and give everyone a voucher to private school?
I know Grim doesn’t have access to the Middlesex MLS.
Anyone else?
There’s a house I’m curious about – new construction. It was on the market for a while, all during the construction phase and for some time after. If I remember right, the OLP was $649,000. I know it got bumped down to $595,555 before it disappeared from the MLS sometime last fall or winter. It looked like it was sold – looked occupied. But it just popped back up in the MLS about a week ago with a new asking price of $565,000. The photos in NJMLS show that it is indeed furnished and occupied. All the rooms are painted in colors, and someone hung a rhino head on the wall of the family room.
But I couldn’t find a record of a sale at that street address in the databases.
So I’m wondering if it’s being rented to keep it occupied, or whether someone bought it and they’re now trying to resell it, and the sale is so recent it’s not in the databases yet.
Maybe this is a new form of “staging” – make the house look more appealing by adding not just a vase of flowers, but actual real occupants and color to the walls.
I think the problem with selling this house might be that it doesn’t have a basement. The current ad says that it has a utility room on the first floor.
http://www.njmls.com/cf/frame2.cfm?mlsid=2
“Heck, how long will it be before someone suggests that the towns just close the schools and give everyone a voucher to private school?”
Certainly not until a heck of a lot more private schools get up and running. Private schools with no admissions standards, that is.
Shore Guy [48],
Exactly!
Both districts have set aside $35,000 in their budgets to help pay for an attorney to conduct a feasibility study.
What am I missing here. We are hiring lawyers to separate towns? What do lawyers know about financing and budgets?
Actually my POS sable has has the DOHC engine which is the same engine used in the base Jaguar. Well for now, who knows what tanta motors will be putting under the hood.
The Duratec 3.0 is actually a fine engine. It’s been used in various iterations in the Taurus/Sable/Five-Hundred/Montego, Jaguar S-Type and X-Type, Lincoln LS, and the Mazda6.
That was in the 1980s and it is amazing how far down hill C (chrysler) Class Benzs have fallen and how really good BMWs have risen. I rather have a 5 series over a e class any day.
I wholeheartedly disagree. The current crop of MB’s > current BMW’s, imo. Admittedly though, the previous MB C class (2000-2007) was far behind the E46 3 series.
#52 grim: And The River Edge Oradell fight still continues over River Dell. Same funding battle.
50….chevy used to make some great cars.
And uh, yeah I taxi my four year old around so something safe….fun…and a few toys for dad (Nav — I have no sense of direction)
————————————————
BMWs are just the chevy implala of Europe. Some kind of taxicab?
255 horses is fine for me…especially when I can get through snow and ice…and make 20/30 MPG. With some nice creature comforts too boot. M’s are nice….overpriced….but nice. a niche market for sure.
If it doesn’t come with an “M” prefix, you might as well be driving John’s Sable.
Amen brother Amen.
I was just in Europe and was talking about cars with some of the natives. I was told that the Mercedes is for the government people and the BMW is for the villagers. Audi is big.
60 essex
My bro drove his 1974 Impala up until about two years go. Fantastic car – not the greatest mileage….
#54
Whoops, link doesn’t work.
MLS#: 818439
Anything that starts with “M” or ends with AMG is second to none.
they all have watered down versions such as 525i and E-350 but paying for those in my opinion is like buying a 4th cousin of the Kentucky Derby Winner so you can tell your friends and family who know nothing about horses that yours and the champ are cousins. That’s all.
Auto prices are in a bubble too. Time to downsize to a gas saving, lower payment automobile.
That Duratec engine is a monster good engine, it is too bad it is attached to my Mercury. Even takes 5.5 quarts of oil for extra cooling capability. Once is a very blue moon just for fun I smoke them up. Now that is one weird combination. Brings me back to my Mom’s old Buick wagon in HS that had a monster 455CI engine, When you lit that nine passenger baby up with just one passenger in it with its slippery Plether Bench Seat up front you better hold on for dear life if your seatbelt ain’t on, with a 21 foot car with a 455CI under the hood don’t bang a hard ralpie fishtail or you will get pinned to the passenger door while you hope the backward donuts die down before you wack a parked car. Smoking H70 Snows on a Posi rear car is a scary amount of horsepower.
jamil Says:
May 11th, 2008 at 9:44 pm
Bob: I’m an index guy. I don’t believe in market-timing and I don’t want to start speculating on the market (even if hedged). I have my own investment plan in place already.
jamil: Care to disclose your high-level strategy and how you arrived at it?
Pat….prepare.. ;-)
#58 – The Duratec 3.0 is actually a fine engine.
I couldn’t agree more! Noble used 350bhp turbo versions to power the M12.
Chi[68],
Can’t wait.
ChiFi,
If you’re looking to take jamil to school I hope you cleared you afternoon.
66….I can upgrade to a larger car with better power and equal efficiency….more safety features….gadgets and performance…..for $100 less a month.
I am not going to drive a ‘compact’ (3 series)– anymore….too many morons here in the Garden State to risk my safety and that of my daughter…..
SX,
E90 3’s are almost the size of the older E39 5’s. Not so “compact” any more.
Plus, any given 3 will be more nimble than a similar vintage 5.
If I had money to burn, I’d be looking into a 135i or 335i for thrills. Although, E46 M3’s are coming down in price too…
ChiFi:
Jamil won’t be able to answer until some time after watching Mad Money tonight.
Brings me back to my Mom’s old Buick wagon in HS that had a monster 455CI engine, When you lit that nine passenger baby up with just one passenger in it with its slippery Plether Bench Seat up front you better hold on for dear life if your seatbelt ain’t on, with a 21 foot car with a 455CI under the hood don’t bang a hard ralpie fishtail or you will get pinned to the passenger door while you hope the backward donuts die down before you wack a parked car. Smoking H70 Snows on a Posi rear car is a scary amount of horsepower.
Those were the days – My buddy got hold of a 440 cubic inch Chrsler New Yorker that would smoke the tires off the rim. My older brother inherited a 318 Dart that my aunt thought he would take care of. First night I saw him doing donuts in the Grand Union parking lot. I got a pair of junker straight six Dusters to go back and forth to school in Newark. They were fun to blast through leaf or snow piles, drive across lawns or hit shopping carts with. Jumping tracks was always a blast. Cars were cheap and easy to fix so having a beater was cool.
OT here, but perhpas not with the cost of food and energy.
I was in my local super market this past week end. i have been going there for years. There is now a security guard at the front of the store.
I asked one of the managers why the securitiy guard since there had never been one there before. His reply, senior citizens stealing!!
#69: jamil: Care to disclose your high-level strategy and how you arrived at it?
I take it that indexing is not something you promote..Anyway, I don’t want to start another fight about indexing. I can easily achieve my financial goals with tax-efficient, diversified low-cost indexing. Other than that, ~25% down-payment, half in tax-exempt money-market and half in non-dollar demoninated currencies, and company stock options are enough for my needs.
I don’t need to take additional risk. Sure, I could speculate with RE, facebook, google, gold and oil, but I don’t have to. But I have weaknesses as well: Every now and then, I spend the querters in my wallet and buy lottery tickets. (Yes, I know, that $4/month is a stupid hobby but I’m not perfect – not that anybody would believe so but still)
can i ask 1 of you with access to look up this njmls listing, Listing Number: 2819063, for me? thanks in advance.
Stephen King: As safe as houses? How harsh realities are dispelling the home market myths
The level of misunderstanding about housing is really rather shocking. Many people believe, for example, that renting involves throwing money down the drain whereas buying via an interest-only mortgage does not. Admittedly, those who were lucky enough to buy houses which then appreciated in value did well with their interest-only mortgages, but that’s only because they turned out to be lucky speculators (and they’ll still have to find a way of paying off the loan). Others, who bought at the peak of the market, will be thinking very differently. For them, renting would have been the better option.
Arguments suggesting that the value of housing can only rise and that, therefore, housing investment is always safe are both wrong and dangerous. There are lots of good reasons why, over time, house prices tend to rise. One of the most important is the appropriate assessment of risk, in particular about the degree to which people should borrow. During housing bubbles, though, people too easily forget about risk and borrow too much. As a result, prices move a long way from their long-term “fair value” trajectory, paving the way for a painful adjustment.
Unsurprisingly, the English language is rich enough to offer the appropriate expression. In 2008, the chickens are coming home to roost.
Stephen King is managing director of economics at HSBC
http://www.marketoracle.co.uk/Article4591.html
Good article, two weeks ago smartmoney called the bottom in RE, this guy rebutes that we are nowhere near bottom.
I’m seriously considering getting a used SUV for pennies on the dollar if I find that I’m going to Home Depot every weekend after I close. My current car is paid for and reliable, and having a larger vehicle for all those hauling trips might make some sense. I’d drop the collision coverage, not care too much about maintenance, and not use it as my daily driver.
Borrowed time: Effects of housing crisis trickle down to private student loan market
When mortgage holders began having trouble making their payments, investors who bought them wound up losing their shirts.
As a result, investors haven’t been rushing to buy other debt-backed securities like student loans, according to the National Association of Financial Aid Administrators.
“Now, when lenders take their loans to auction, no one purchases them, and eventually there is little money left to make new loans,” the group said in a white paper released last week.
President Bush signed House Resolution 5715 into law last week giving the U.S. Department of Education the authority to act as a “lender of last resort” for student loan firms having trouble raising capital in the open market.
The bill also eased credit restrictions for federally backed loans, allowing parents as much as 180 days behind on a mortgage to still qualify for student loans for their children.
Make
Your M5 isn’t red/maroon is it?
Another Comp Killer in Central NJ.
770 Weemac Road, Martinsville, NJ
Closed last week for $550K
Courier News Link
Zestimate: $635,500
That is almost 20% less than lowered zestimate value.
http://www.telegraph.co.uk/money/main.jhtml?xml=/money/2008/05/12/ccambrose112.xml
interesting stuff and concerns about the world global economy.
68 I’ve already been waiting…like hours… for this one. Ready to attach.
lost,
I have a black on black six. I don’t have a five anymore.
my lease is up soon and my buy back is fairly decent if anyone is interested. Although I warn you that I puch it at almost every red light add drive it agressively.
here’s a bargain for an M5. This guy must be one of the gold coast guy’s.
http://www.leasetrader.com/2007_BMW_M5_Sedan_130635.xhtml
what an idiot, who puts 15k down on a lease?
“Low payments of only $598.00 Take over lease plus( $9500.00 CASH TO ME) and it’s yours. i PUT $15,000.00 DOWN on the car so I want some of it back!”
This is another form of natural selection at work. Like was said above, who in their right mind puts $15K down on a leased car? You should always put ZERO down on a lease. If the car gets totaled then insurance pays off the bank but whatever you put down is toast. This guy is delusional.
Since when does the military pay enough to afford a $100K leased car? Maybe I should check goarmy.com more often.
Dumbestn idea ever:
Seeking Alpha:
Saving the Economy with IRA Funds
http://seekingalpha.com/article/76819-saving-the-economy-with-ira-funds
“It all makes a great deal of sense to create an investment vehicle backed by the best investment and individual can make – their home.”
[81] Jmac, I second that.
Once I buy, I plan to do the same for hauling heavier stuff, and, once I ditch the A6, as a tank for keeping the Nomette safe from our average NJ driver(I know, I know, you are all great drivers here in NJ–that is why insurance is so low).
I already drive relatively little and have a leased car. We plan to get the cheap SUV for tank/truck duty, and the wife can lease something nice for her commute and our travel.
Also, this arrangement keeps taxes low!!!
#88 – That’s not too bad at all. You could get a Mini for about the same cost.
Seriously though, browsing through Lease Trader and looking at the $400 Miatas has become a new pastime for me. The pure comedy you can derive from a game of “you payed how much ?” can not be underestimated.
Clearly, it is a GREAT time to buy:
http://www.cnbc.com/id/24577916
Fed’s Evans Indicates Fed May Cut Rates Further
By CNBC.com With Wires | 12 May 2008 | 09:58 AM ET Font size: Chicago Federal Reserve Bank President Charles Evans said that U.S. interest rates are “accommodative” and at the right level given a weak growth outlook, but then indicated that the Fed could still be open to cutting rates further.
“My judgment is that the current net stance of monetary policy is accommodative — and this is appropriate in order to address the way we currently see the sluggish economy unfolding in 2008,” Evans said at an economic forum at Harper College in Palatine, Illinois.
Charles Evans
But in response to a question about when the Fed would start raising rates again, he said “There continue to be downside risks to economic growth…We’re still muddling through this.”
Though Evans isn’t currently a voting member of the Fed’s Open Market Committee, which sets interest rate policy, that comment reversed a rally by the dollar, which pushed oil prices back up toward $126 a barrel.
During his speech, Evans said that consumer spending, the backbone of the United States economy, is under pressure.
“Slower income growth, falling consumer sentiment, higher food and energy prices, lower housing and equity wealth, and tighter credit conditions are all restraining household spending,” he said.
The Fed’s string of interest rate cuts has brought rates to a level that “balances out substantial risks to the outlooks for both growth and inflation — which I see as being to the downside for growth and to the upside for inflation,” he said.
The Federal Open Market Committee lowered federal funds, its benchmark lending rate, to 2 percent in April, taking cumulative rate cuts since mid-September to 325 basis points.
At 2 percent, “the real fed funds rate is close to zero or perhaps slightly negative,” said Evans, who is not a voting member of the FOMC this year.
Strains on liquidity in financial markets have provided a large “offset” to lower interest rates, making it more difficult for Fed policy to gain traction, Evans said.
“We think the disruptions today are more significant than in the early 1990s,” when the United States faced another financial crisis from the savings and loan industry, he said.
Evans said U.S. growth should improve somewhat in the second half of 2008 given current interest rates and fiscal stimulus, but not regain a roughly “trend” rate of about 2.5 percent until 2009.
“We think conditions will improve in the second half of this year, but not enough to prevent economic activity from still running at a relatively sluggish pace,” he said.
Core inflation, meanwhile, could retreat to the 1.5 to 2 percent seen by “most policy-makers” as consistent with price stability, by 2010, Evans said.
High commodity food and energy prices have so far not made their way into longer-term inflation expectations, but still could, he said, adding that “any increase in inflation expectations would pose an important risk to the achievement of price stability.”
A California Couple’s Descent Into Foreclosure, Bankruptcy
The Floyds say their broker explained that their new mortgage would be at 7.25% for two years and go up to 8.25% for the next 30 years.
But in 2007, the loan went up to 9.25%, bringing monthly payments from $3,200 to $3,980. It later went up to 10.25% and a $4,367 payment. The couple then learned that their mortgage rate would increase every six months until it reached 13.25%.
chifi (68)-
Waiting with bated breath.
#92
I suggest thinking about more about avoiding accidents in the first place then surviving them. Your A6 will out brake and out manuever pretty much any SUV on the road, except maybe some of the BMW X models. It’s also less likely to roll over.
Stu (74)-
Indexers don’t watch Mad Money.
jamil (77)-
Did you start with a big pile of cabbage?
Even more confusing about that car is the fact that a big downpayment on a lease is for two purposes. One is a lower downpayment but number two is to get a shot at a below market buy back at lease end. Number two I see a lot. Exec can lease car for work pays a little extra up front for a cheaper buy back and at lease end buys back for wife or kids. That BMW has no buy back set price.
Secondary Market Says:
May 12th, 2008 at 12:18 pm
what an idiot, who puts 15k down on a lease?
“Low payments of only $598.00 Take over lease plus( $9500.00 CASH TO ME) and it’s yours. i PUT $15,000.00 DOWN on the car so I want some of it back!”
Ridgewood
2525833
SLD 651 MIDWOOD RD $575,000 11/2/2005
2745833
ACT 651 MIDWOOD RD $589,900 11/15/2007
PCH 651 MIDWOOD RD $539,000 1/8/2008
PCH 651 MIDWOOD RD $525,000 2/11/2008
PCH 651 MIDWOOD RD $500,000 3/31/2008
ACT* 651 MIDWOOD RD $500,000 4/8/2008
U/C 651 MIDWOOD RD $500,000 4/25/2008
SLD 651 MIDWOOD RD $485,000 5/8/2008
JPMORGAN CHASE SAYS IDENTIFIED POSITIONS FOR 40 PCT BEAR STEARNS STAFF.
8,400 to be laidoff at Bear.
anyone have that number to the White House that was posted earlier? thanks
#94 shore: What can I say. It is sacry, this guy is absolutely delusional.
Lenders offer little help in foreclosures
Companies ill-equipped to handle surge of distressed homeowners
Unable to afford their mortgage, the Barbozas are trying to sell their home. They have received three offers since last summer. But because the offers – between $220,000 and $225,000 – are less than their $320,000 mortgage, their loan company, Countrywide Home Loans, would have to sign off on the deal and accept a loss. Countrywide has either rejected or ignored the offers and foreclosure seems imminent.
Delays also affect the broader housing market. The longer troubled properties languish, the more they undermine other homeowners trying to sell into a market of mushrooming inventories.
Option One spokeswoman Christine Sullivan said short sales have numerous steps that make them difficult to approve. Also, loans today have a layer of complexity that didn’t exist when banks used to make loans and put the paperwork in their vaults. Option One sold this mortgage in a bundle of loans to investors, who have final say about a sale.
She said Countrywide barely responds to her correspondence. From a 3-inch stack of paperwork, she fished out a January memo to Countrywide that details how she spent two hours, in vain, trying to fax the company 32 documents – “many of which you already had.” She sent the documents overnight but got no reply. In exasperation, she wrote on one faxed letter, “NO ONE THERE KNOWS WHAT THEY ARE DOING!!!”
Teaneck
2503121
SLD 35 ORCHARD ST $359,000 8/4/2005
Mortgage $309,000 8/8/2005
LisPenden $309,000 6/5/2007
2740725
ACT 35 ORCHARD ST $370,000 10/6/2007
PCH 35 ORCHARD ST $345,000 10/21/2007
ACT* 35 ORCHARD ST $345,000 1/30/2008
ARR 35 ORCHARD ST $345,000 2/10/2008
ACT* 35 ORCHARD ST $345,000 4/22/2008
U/C 35 ORCHARD ST $345,000 5/4/2008
SLD 35 ORCHARD ST $327,000 5/9/2008
clotpoll (100):jamil (77)- Did you start with a big pile of cabbage?
I’m not a veggie..I like to eat something that has parents.
(I started without a baggage, and it seems I understated things in #78…50% DP for potential house here (mainly because of the dollar decline.)).
#106 rich: Thanks as always. Would love to see some from River Edge/Oradell, when you see them.
Hi everybody:
My last ofer on ahouse was basically declined (buyer came up with counter which is less than 3% down from listing). Looks like reality is not setting – or may be reality is that NJ IS TOO EXPENSIVE FOR ME. Anyways another year of renting.
I have a question – what is the best way to find a SFH/townhouse/condo for rent in NJ??
Not an apartment com,ex by by private landlord?
I found this one:
YOU CAN SEE THEM ALL SMALL FEE $120 RENTAL NETWORK 732-777-RENT (7368) DEAL LOCALLY AVOID SCAMS!!! 15 YEARS OF SERVICE IN MIDDLESEX COUNTY!!!!!!
But there is a report online saying it is a scam.
Anybody have an idea on how do find one -some good service which charge a fee but after you find a rental, not before?
3106 rich It lookes like it closed in a matter of days. That was quick.
SG (105)-
“From a 3-inch stack of paperwork, she fished out a January memo to Countrywide that details how she spent two hours, in vain, trying to fax the company 32 documents – “many of which you already had.”
The above describes what I spend 6-8 hours a week doing. Countrywide- and lenders of their ilk- are going down hard. The cubicle jockeys they have running the loss mit operations have the relative IQ of monkeys.
I myself am a semi-vegitarian. I only eat vegitarian animials. I refuse to eat animals that eat animals. Therfore, sticking to an all vegitarian meat diet is tough, chicken, lamb, cow, duck etc. Sometimes I just crave a piece of lion, tiger or aligator and on those days you betta keep out of my way at the Bronx zoo.
#109 Al;The reality is settling in, even of there are some sellers still in denial. Another 6 to 12 months, and IMO we will see some extremely significant price declines. Be patient.
3b Says:
May 12th, 2008 at 1:16 pm
#109 Al;The reality is settling in, even of there are some sellers still in denial. Another 6 to 12 months, and IMO we will see some extremely significant price declines. Be patient.
Thats why I need a place to rent …
And if it is still too expensive in a year I do plan to leave. Due to my job contractual detail I do have to stay for one more year.
jamil Says:
May 12th, 2008 at 11:16 am
#69: jamil: Care to disclose your high-level strategy and how you arrived at it?
I take it that indexing is not something you promote..Anyway, I don’t want to start another fight about indexing. I can easily achieve my financial goals with tax-efficient, diversified low-cost indexing. Other than that, ~25% down-payment, half in tax-exempt money-market and half in non-dollar demoninated currencies, and company stock options are enough for my needs.
j: That’s it? Aren’t you going to accuse me of beating people up in Kissena Park in Flushing? Oh sorry…wrong guy…
From Atlanta,
Tax assessors boggled by housing dip
For less than the price of a decent used car, you can buy a home in Atlanta today.
Actually, real estate agents list a dozen choices for $10,000 or less.
Step up in price to $20,000 and your choices expand 10 fold.
The cheapest, at 336 Adelle Street in the Lakewood area, comes in at $5,900. Tax records list its value at $101,700.
Wimberly said he’d recently sold a home in West End that tells the tale of what’s happened in some neighborhoods. The home sold in March 2004 for $305,000 and then in August 2004 for $700,000. It tumbled to $122,900 in a sale last year. It sold recently for $51,000.
Those are the kind of numbers that have public officials scratching their heads.
“I had the toughest time trying to convince the bank the price was correct,” Wimberly said. “They thought I was out of my mind.”
73…I am not sure that my lisc. would survive a 335….too much power! Besides….I dig the heck out of the new 5….the styling took a while to catch me…but I think they look great….I’m a big dude and appreciate a little extra room.
#94
that Evans is a clown. Muddle this!
Core inflation! Doesn’t count energy and food costs. Pure bogus information.
Where did he get his degree, Brookdale?
moneyman….I know I would be arrested with an M…and I really do not want to ‘shift gears’…I am lazy…give me the automatic…..nothing more gorgeous than the higher end bodywork on the M’s.
Realtors complain short-sale process is failing
LIVONIA, Michigan (Reuters) – Realtors in many U.S. states say lenders are demanding excessively high prices before allowing distressed borrowers to offload their homes in “short sales,” making the housing crisis worse.
In addition, many lenders simply do not have the people or processes in place to handle a swelling tide of short sales around the country, Realtors say. As a result, lenders are taking far too long to evaluate offers, leading many would-be buyers to walk away from deals.
“The system is broken,” said Ron Rosen, a Realtor in Lighthouse Point, Florida. “The only question banks should ask is can they make more in a short sale than in foreclosure.”
202-456-1414 is the main White House number.
# 112 “I refuse to eat animals that eat animals. ”
Ahh, the reverse of Ben Franklin. He posited that if an animal had eaten another animal it had no right to expect that it would not be eaten by some other creature, e.g., humans.
Minnesota news,
Lender listings drag down Twin Cities home prices
Of the 32,368 homes currently on the market in the 13-county metro area, 6,548 either are foreclosures or short sales, according to a report the Minneapolis Area Association of Realtors issued Tuesday.
I wonder what is the percentage in NJ
The above describes what I spend 6-8 hours a week doing. Countrywide- and lenders of their ilk- are going down hard.
Clot,
I can see why you get a kicker on the comission for a short sale. I had no idea what a nightmare it was to get one of these done. You would think that lenders would be jumping all over an opportunity to preserve more of the value of the loan and let the homeowner and their realtor do all the work and not be in the business of owning and maintaining devalued homes. Why aren’t they more easy to work with? Are they just overwhelmed?
SG,
My wife and I passed through Atlanta to go to Savannah in 2004. We checked out houses for fun in the area. Saw some fairly nice homes for about 400-500k, probably equivalent to some $800k – $1mm homes in the nice areas in NJ, right now. Amazing how far things can fall if that is accurate. Don’t expect NNJ to dive that deep because if it did, we would be in a world of pain.
I’m looking at the Morris county sheriff’s sale and not seeing something re-listed.
When something was “Writ Expired – Return Unsatisfied” what happens?
thanks Shore
Luxury homes lose luster fast in Las Vegas
To the untrained eye, the four-bedroom, five-bath retreat might appear top-drawer, shimmering with granite and marble throughout, with posh touches like a pool with a sandy beach entry.
But Antos pointed out that the house was showing its age. After all, it was built in 2000. In Vegas, that makes it as dated as a coin-operated slot machine.
About 1,000 houses are listed for sale in Las Vegas for $1 million or higher, more than 600 of them built since 2004. But unless they’ve been built in the past year or two, the properties are considered out of date – making them all that more difficult to sell, real estate agents say.
To be considered a premium home, “8,000 to 10,000 square feet is the new threshold,” Lemoine said. It was 5,000 to 7,000 square feet just five years ago, he added.
Buyers today want two sets of refrigerators and freezers, two game rooms (one for the kids, another for adults) and showers at least 7 feet by 7 feet, he said.
Don’t forget to call the senators, members of congress, and eventhe state and local party offices.
The FHA Mortgage Center site is holding a “best real estate blogs” contest. If you haven’t voted for this site yet, please do so:
http://fhamortgagecenter.com/contest/view.php?id=73
One vote only, please.
Correction: One vote per day please!
SG
Buyers today want two sets of refrigerators and freezers, two game rooms (one for the kids, another for adults) and showers at least 7 feet by 7 feet, he said.
They need that to fit their rear ends in the shower and still be able to bend over
Buyers today want two sets of refrigerators and freezers, two game rooms (one for the kids, another for adults) and showers at least 7 feet by 7 feet, he said.
That is completely and utterly ridiculous… glad I don’t live in Vegas.
Hey what do you guys think of Keller Williams Realty? They are planning on opening around 25 offices around here in the next year and their motto is a 70/30 split in favor of the agent and once an agent has funneled 30K commission in a year the agent gets 100%. Plus they get 5 to 50% of franchise profits each year in profit sharing.
Sounds a lot better than a 50/50 split but in life everything has a catch.
can i ask 1 of you with access to look up this njmls listing, Listing Number: 2819063, for me? thanks in advance.
[117],
From Mish;
http://globaleconomicanalysis.blogspot.com/
3b, #76
A lot of seniors are dependent on their interest income from CD’s to supplement their S/S checks. That’s where the drop in interest rates really hits home.
# 133 “Buyers today want two sets of refrigerators and freezers”
Outside of keeping Kosher, who needs this?
I never had a problem when I contacted any Keller Williams people, but I have this impression that the other agents bad-mouth them under their breath over here in PA. Basically, they aren’t as “Graydon-ish” as Coldwell, etc.
It used to piss a agent I knew off to no end that I knew the addresses of houses from the kw site. I don’t think that’s an issue anymore.
Jase,
18 Fairview
MLS# 2725002
Listed: 6/19/2007
OLP: $699,999
Reduced to $644,900 on 7/20/2007
Reduced to $574,999 on 9/25/2007
Expired
DOM: 197
MLS# 2819063 – Short Sale (Subj. to bank approval)
Listed: 5/8/2008
OLP: $480,000
Active
Was also listed for rent under MLS# 2743455, listed on 10/26/2007 for $2k/mo. Was on for 189 days.
#126 hardplace:Don’t expect NNJ to dive that deep because if it did, we would be in a world of pain.
And what makes you think we will not be in a world of pain. Lots of people already in it.
#138 – Outside of keeping Kosher, who needs this?
You obviously spent your time studying in college. 1 fridge for the beer and 1 fridge for the Jaeger…
Could I trouble one of you brilliant folks to provide me with some info on mls #2746481?
Mr. movinB doesn’t believe me that it was priced at like $530k around January and is now at $390k. (I posted about this one over the weekend open discussion, but I’m guessing it was my bad to post at late-nite CA time…)
Thanks in advance, and congrats on the contest… I voted a bunch.
138….Food hoarding will be the next big trend….and after the revolution…and subsequent grid failure…..you’ll be lucky to get fresh meat.
mb,
10/31/2005 – Sold for $430,000
11/19/2007 – Listed for $530,000
12/3/2007 – Under Contract
12/12/2007 – Back on Market
2/25/2008 – Reduced to $450,000
4/1/2008 – Reduced to $420,000
5/1/2008 – Reduced to $390,000
Currently asking is $40,000 (9.3%) under the 2005 purchase price
Make money revs his car in front of the summer house….
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=HsZhLqozdnI&feature=related
Es,
C’mon, I was hoping to go at least 1 day without a Mad Max reference.
#132 – kettle1 – I’m afraid you may be completely accurate. It never ceases to amaze me how big the inhabitants of SI are, even compared to Jersey. Don’t get me wrong, Jersey is home to some pretty big people (and by big I’m politely saying fat), but we have nothing on SI.
I was at the Target over the weekend because it’s close and I needed simple stuff. I swear I had to have been the only person there under 200lbs. Seriously, these people would need a shower that big. Half of them can barely walk, wheezing away with each step while desperately reaching for the last pint of Chunky Monkey.
essex
how long does a can of friskies or alpo last?
Danke grim
Ask my dog…..
May 12 (Bloomberg) JPMorgan Chase & Co plans to eliminate about 1 million square feet of New York office space as it takes over Bear Stearns Co, CEO Jamie Dimon said.
The company will move its entire investment banking operation into the Bear Stearns headquarters building at 383 Madison Ave., Dimon said today at a conference in New York.
JPMorgan is taking on about 4.1 million square feet of Bear Stearns space, he said.
though I wouldn’t feed that crap to a dog….you’d be better off asking…what’s my next move….*After I get axed from Wall Street.
# 142 I was soooo poor back then I couldn’t afford to buy alcohol in bulk. It was so bad that we resorted to making wine from grape juice concentrate. This, in turn, could be distilled into a brandy-ish concoction. All in all, it was easier to have teammates — who were bouncers at many of the clubs — let me in for free and then have bartending buddies pour some freebies. Ahh, the good old days.
# 146 A sure sign that one is firmly in middle age. One looks at that clip and thinks, “Humm, NICE driveway.”
148 Toshiro
How sad. And the thing is, I know you’re not even exaggerating.
Hat tip to DealBreaker
http://www.forexfactory.com/news.php?do=news&id=85966
LONDON AND NEW YORK – JP Morgan has taken a hatchet to Bear Stearns’ foreign exchange business in London and New York, with 62 of 73 positions set to be put on notice, according to a senior Bear Stearns official.
In New York, 28 out of 34 people working in foreign exchange are expected to receive consultation letters this week. In London, where letters from the takeover bank arrived last week, around 33 of the 39-strong team received notification they had entered a consultation period, which could result in their jobs being made redundant.
Senior management that received letters of consultation included David Schoenthal, global head of FX and precious metals in New York, and in London: Loic Meinnel, head of European forex and global options; Michael Kardouche, in foreign exchange institutional sales; and Steven Ware, in hedge fund sales.
Peter Williams, senior managing director in liquid product sales, FX futures and option commodities in London, is understood to have a transition date to leave the bank at the end of May but might take an opportunity at JP Morgan outside of forex.
“Some people that were offered positions at JP Morgan turned them down because the positiond were not at the same level as that at Bear Stearns,” said the Bear Stearns official.
However, another source said the integration was proceeding as planned.
Bear Stearns’ New York trading operations have almost ground to a halt, with the FX team handling only 1% of its pre-takeover commerce.
#52
This stuff from Pascack Valley Regional School District should be no surprise – I mean, a few years ago, PHHS booted Hillsdale (which was sending the “ritzy” side of town to PHHS and the “blue-collar” side of town to PVHS) over to PVHS entirely, if I’m not mistaken.
If this change goes through, the towns will still send to the same HS, but I would bet that PVHS takes a dip in quality… and I would hope that PHHS would improve. It’s a shame that one could have to happen as a result of the other.
thanks grim. from 699,999 to 480, 000, that’s a 220, 000 haircut!!
:)
Interesting stuff coming from MBIA.
“Mark to market losses not only unrealized, they are unreal” – Chaplin CFO
Nine houses lost, investor reflects on ‘stumbles’
California man speculated with ‘neg-am’ loans, now says it was mistake.
LOS ANGELES – A California man who has defaulted on nine homes and expects banks to foreclose on all of them, forcing him into bankruptcy, says he now considers it a mistake to have invested in the real estate market.
Shawn Forgaard, a 37-year-old software company project manager, bought one home for his family to live in and nine more as investments. He stands to lose all the investment houses in the mortgage meltdown but says he has come away wiser from the experience.
http://www.msnbc.msn.com/id/24569891/
Its that time of the year to start shopping for that weekend getaway.
http://www.nysauctionsbids.com/brochures/Sullivan.pdf
I swear I had to have been the only person there under 200lbs.
As someone weighing in under 150, this always shocks me. Looking around the DMV my last time there, I’d guess half the people would be considered obese.
#157
I personally know a lot of the people on the Bear FX desk. Most of them are worthless by the way. One of my good buddies that obviously is not will basically be getting 6-8 months of his salary as a severance (3 years at Bear) and he already has a job lined up making much more $$. This whole situation is basically free money for him. I just got off the phone talking with him on new TVs to purchase once the check clears :)
Sign of times, (MLS 2504058)
The house is listed asking $295,000. The Property Taxes alone are $11,552.
According to my calculation, the 6% 30 year fixed mortgage on 80% loan would be $1378, while Property taxes alone would be $950. Add the cost of Interests and regular maintenance, you are spending 50% other than mortgage.
http://new.gsmls.com/public/detailLst.do?mlsNum=2504058
ChiFi (116)-
Too bad Jamil won’t enter into pitched battle with you or me. He just won’t take the bait. I thought pretty much anybody who posts here could be goaded into an argument, but this is one mellow dude.
I think he IS a vegetarian. Probably listens to lots of NPR, too. :)
#163 – I’m in the under 150 group myself (143 last time I checked). Clothes shopping has become increasingly difficult over the years as more and more is made for the large. Even fitted shirts in my size are now cut for people with very large stomaches.
Realistically, I’m not even that thin.
Rent (125)-
Overwhelmed
Understaffed
Incompetent
Insolvent
Unmotivated
Stupid
There are my explanations, in no particular order.
#164Mike: That is kind of interesting, becasue there is not a whole lot of opportunities out there right now.
And his new job he will be making even more? Not to be cynical, but I would take that with a grain of salt, simply because the firms that may be hiring right now, have the upper hand. They do not and will nto over pay in this environment. They simply do not have to, especially knowing that he is coming from Bear.
Sign of times, (MLS 2504058)
The house is listed asking $295,000.
Sign of the times indeed.
Purchased in September of 2006 for $379,000.
“Mark to market losses not only unrealized, they are unreal” – Chaplin CFO
I love it!!!
Essex,
Why are you hating with that youtube nonsense? It was Grim that started with this M series and sable comparison.
#158 movin: The same thing is happening in River Dell.
#172 3b,
But there’s only one school to split up there, right? So that involves building a new one for the loser of the two towns…?
Isn’t Oradell doing the revaluation thing this year, too?
#167 toshiro,
I’m 6′ 190 lbs
In the US I’m a Medium
Australia Large
Taiwan & Singapore XL
In NJ I’m usually one of the thinnest people in a store (except for Whole foods)
John (134)-
Keller-Williams is basically an Amway-like cult. Their primary appeal is to the new- or newer- agent who responds to thinly-veiled appeals to their sense of God, family and country.
KW also promises bountiful overrides for agents, to be paid from the business generated by other agents that they can recruit into the system. This smashingly successful program generates an average of about $600/year for each US agent on their books. It is Ponzi-like in both its appeal and its idiocy. Recruiting productive agents is the hardest thing there is in this business.
The KW offices I’ve encountered in NJ feature giant rosters full of agents who do absolutely no business. Their training must be non-existent, because the agents of theirs I’ve dealt with so far are all certifiable retards.
67 john
laughed til I cried. I had the same experience with my Dad’s old Plymouth Volare station wagon which had a ridiculous V-8.
Grim: Interesting indeed. Can you give the address.
bts (161)-
Casey Serin should be happy to know they’ve found a bigger fool than he.
SG,
90 Alvin Sloan
3173 Yes Oradell is doing their re-val this year, it should be interesting in a declining real estate market. River Edge of course did their’s at the peak of the bubble.
The problem between the 2 towns is simply this Oradell sends approximatley 265 less kids to the regional school system, but pays over 6k more per srtudent.
Oradell either wants to pay just for the students it sends, or to dissolve the district entirely. Which would have Oradell keeping the HS, as it is physically in Oradell, and RE the MS as it is physically in RE.
Then each town would have a send receive realtionship with the other for MS and HS, an just pay for hte kide they send.
RE of course is simply attempting to ignore it, because they simply do not want to pay more in taxes.
#167
What’s amazing/scary to me is that few stores carry 32×30 pants, yet they are fully-stocked with 36×30 and wider.
And, without any change on my end, I’ve gone from a medium to a small in shirts.
Another way to save on drinks is the old Lick and Roll. One night we Licked and Rolled ten times off one paid admission. Never understood how the same bouncer let nine people re-enter a bar.
3b,
I agree that the environment sucks out there and I am pretty sure most of his peers will not be getting jobs at anywhere near what they were making at Bear but my friend was horrifically underpaid at Bear as a very junior FX guy.
Survey Says Execs Believe Oil Will Fall Below $100
“Oil and Gas executives say that the price-per-barrel of oil will drop significantly from the current high level by the end of the year, according to the results of a survey conducted by KPMG LLP’s Global Energy Institute.
….
“The combination of traders moving resources into commodities and the weak dollar has had a significant role in the surge in pricing in recent weeks,” said Bill Kimble, executive director for KPMG’s Global Energy Institute. “
Wow. I had actually visited that development back in 2000 when it was just starting out. The price at that time was around 250K. At $295K price, you are talking no real gains at all since 2000. In fact, that particular house has been built in 2002. It is actually a nice school district.
#181 – I know exactly what you mean. I’m 30×30 in pants. I think some of the waist sizes are there only as an odd joke; 42×30! How do these people have ankles left?
any opinions on the market in Mountain Lakes? Been shopping there for a while, and the sellers are willing to hold out for years rather than cut prices?
3b,
Speculation and use of toxic mortgages was much more pervasive in FL, CA, NV. I had friends on the west coast asking me if they should buy two years ago and when they told me the numbers I told them they were nuts. The deals were in South Calif and Arizona where PITI exceeded rents by a factor of 2 or more. These were spec condos and I didn’t sign up to join the party. I did sign up for some condo deals in NYC back in late 2003 that should have made me a killing. I was expecting two year completion, but it took four due to delays. Unfortunately developer was a relative and I was only a limited partner, so don’t have much sway. Right now project is only 2/3rds sold. Who knows when the rest will get unloaded.
109 al
If a business tells you that it is not a scam, then it is a scam.
hey guys,
Stop making fun of the 36 waist crowd I might be forced to diet.
any opinions on the market in Mountain Lakes?
It is now possible to find a Hapgood under a million. For a while even rough condition Hapgoods were trading over a million.
180 3b,
Is this why there are more houses for sale in RE than in Oradell?
I need the 36 waist not because I am fat but because I need the extra safe deposit space for the family jewels.
# toshiro_mifune Says:
May 12th, 2008 at 3:32 pm
#181 – I know exactly what you mean. I’m 30×30 in pants. I think some of the waist sizes are there only as an odd joke; 42×30! How do these people have ankles left?
—————–
toshy – your dwarf like measurements amuse me.
180
I mean “seem to be” more houses for sale in RE than Oradell… I’m only looking at the
…under $500k listings :/
#194 – I’m 5’8, that’s not that small.
171…it’s my jealousy….not hate…a close cousin!
how is 30×30 dwarf-like? I’m 32×30 and 5’11”, not exactly a dwarf. Although I’m developing a beer-gut so i’m pushing ever-outwards.
Its funny the slogan for RE is value doubles every 10 years. If they say it enough times for long enough it eventually becomes some sort of truth among the sheeple.
Its the same brain washing technique that Zales feeds everyone on the 2 months salary diamond engagement ring but there are a lot of people who think this is what your supposed to spend now.
I see there is someone AntiTrump and thats ok. I personally don’t know him well enough to make judgment but I would vote him for Gov of NJ if I could. Love him or hate him Trump had to do more things right than wrong to get to where he is at. Even if you don’t care for his methods to no end you can certainly learn from him. I think NJ made a big mistake with Trump that like he says will cost the people on NJ more money. Dont blame Trump blame the people in the house who didn’t get the information up front. They wasted your time and money more than Donald did.
From the AP:
Biggest US solar rooftop system planned
A Pennsylvania energy company is putting up what it says will be the largest rooftop solar installation in the country.
The 1.7-megawatt solar system will go on the rooftops of eight buildings at the Summit, N.J., campus of pharmaceutical company Schering-Plough Corp.
PPL Renewable Energy of Allentown, Pa., said Monday it will plan, construct and operate the system. PPL also will own the system, which will supply power to the Schering-Plough campus.
It will reduce the company’s emissions of greenhouse gases — a goal of the drugmaker — by about 1.3 million pounds a year, equal to saving about 66,000 gallons of gasoline.
PPL said such solar systems reduce energy bills by generating electricity during peak daytime hours when power prices are highest.
Grim #200 in moderation.
Not picking on any particular size. It’s more concern; I’m not sure how many angioplasties I want to float for the ‘common good’.
# toshiro_mifune Says:
May 12th, 2008 at 3:45 pm
#194 – I’m 5′8, that’s not that small.
——————–
No toshy, its not small, but I figured we were all making ridiculous statements, I would join in. and you were getting close to my pant size….
mdad [187],
Most of the more desirable towns are holding strong with the pricing, I’m finding that to be true, also. It appears that the next level homes are not moving much from the peak prices. I don’t know what the next year or two will tell, but if the last three years are an indication, then flat prices at the worst can be expected.
I was hoping for some more capitulation by now, but it just isn’t happening in the area’s that I’ve been following. I’m coming to the conclusion that if prices just stay flat for a few more years, then it gives me the chance to keep saving along with possibly increasing my salary a speck or two. I’m either going to put a greater percentage down or the prices are going to drop substantially. I’m not holding my breath on the price drop scenario.
Study: Fat people cheaper to treat
http://www.usatoday.com/news/health/2008-02-05-obese-cost_N.htm
#184 Mike: I hope it works out fro him.
#185 jamil: I do not think that is happening any time soon.
207 movin
I don’t think that study takes into account secondary effects, such as secondhand smoke, as costs.
#210 njpatient
I’m just feeling a little defensive on account of weighing “more than 150” (155) lbs, heh
#193 MovinB: In my own opinion I would definitely say that is one reason.
River Edge went from having one of the lowest property taxes in Bergen county over the last 5 or 6 years, to the third highest now in Bergen county.
The chickens are coming hoem to roost.
#212 3b
Ya I noticed that about RE – I’d look farther north to Montvale, for example, but the commute from there to midtown is a beast.
5’8″…..my wife is taller than you….but then she used to be a model.
Second and third questions?
– Chatham Boro or Chatham Twp?
– why?
but then she used to be a model
Morgan Fairchild?
mdad
Depends on location and what you’re looking for, I’d say. Certains areas of both municipalities have different appeal to different people.
RuPaul?
“You had an M5, correct? I believe SAS drives an M5 as well”
yup, M5 Sedan. and I love it ;)
although, you can usually catch me only driving 65, and people pass me like I am going backwards.
but hey… the grandkids like it when I whip cookies in the A&P parking lot;)
yee we have alot of fun together.
SAS
Study: Fat people cheaper to treat
Ummmmm, that’s one way of stating it, I guess.
I’ve never heard ‘dying prematurely’ described from a cost savings angle…
Everyone here knows that I love this guy.
ARLINGTON, VA – Republican Presidential candidate Ron Paul eclipsed an important milestone in yesterdays primaries in Indiana and North Carolina. By winning over 71,000 votes, Dr. Paul has earned the backing of over one million supporters across America. “By voting and caucusing for Dr. Paul, one million Republicans have sent a powerful message to our leaders that they want the GOP to return to its traditions of limited government, personal liberty and a strong national defense,” said campaign spokesman Jesse Benton. “Dr. Paul and the grassroots movement he has inspired are building a bright future for the Republican Party and the United states of America.”
#220
Count on McPaper to give you the real story!
#166 SG. I was saying a while ago how eventually you will not be pre-approved for your mortgage but need to be pre-approved for the taxes. Blurring the line between the two even more now.
When is the first houses with higher taxes than mortgage going to happen?
I said it before that NJ Democrats will bankrupt the state of NJ and that the democrats will do more damage to the state than the housing bubble.
Every time they raise the taxes they lower the value of the home. With jobs on the decline, pay rates on the decline, cost of living on the rise how in the world would anyone expect house values to increase? Can’t say NY City or Philly jobs because those jobs and pay rates are on the decline as well.
“Lung cancer is a cheap disease to treat because people don’t survive very long,” van Baal said. “But if they are old enough to get Alzheimer’s one day, they may survive longer and cost more.”
Does this seem, ummmmm, inhuman? In the completely cold solid business bottom-line way, of course.
I think this was the basis for Logan’s Run…
5:ft8in is pretty short for a guy on wall street. In general the taller you are the smarter you are and the more you earn. Granted there are some rich short guys. But if a girl is in a bar and and knows statistically the taller guy is smarter and earns more and since she will get his gene pool her children will be smarter and richer it is a no brainer. In college me and my brother bailed out our one short friend quite a few times in near brawls. Funny how when our six foot 160 pd friend accidentally split a beer on someone in a bar a fight nearly breaks out and when our friend Hans who is 6:ft 5in and 250 pds spills a beer on that same person he apoligizes.
http://www.slate.com/id/2148759/?nav=navoa
#215
Completely depends on what you are looking for.
Feel free to email me at boomer98 at gmail.com for any specific town info.
When is the first houses with higher taxes than mortgage going to happen?
Probably happened in Newark already. No rateables.
I said it before that NJ Democrats will bankrupt the state of NJ and that the democrats will do more damage to the state than the housing bubble.
Ahh good, blind partisan politics. Unexpected, given your locale.
If only your hero could serve a third term, I’m sure the cost-conscious Republicans could solve all our problems…
http://www.slate.com/id/2191124/
How to make a skull bong.
“How to make a skull bong”
back in the service, out on the Cam Lo… I rolled something a local gave me.
Come to find out it was crematory remains.
SAS
110.Al Says:
May 12th, 2008 at 1:10 pm
Hi everybody:
My last ofer on ahouse was basically declined (buyer came up with counter which is less than 3% down from listing). Looks like reality is not setting – or may be reality is that NJ IS TOO EXPENSIVE FOR ME. Anyways another year of renting.
I have a question – what is the best way to find a SFH/townhouse/condo for rent in NJ??
Not an apartment com,ex by by private landlord?
I found this one:
YOU CAN SEE THEM ALL SMALL FEE $120 RENTAL NETWORK 732-777-RENT (7368) DEAL LOCALLY AVOID SCAMS!!! 15 YEARS OF SERVICE IN MIDDLESEX COUNTY!!!!!!
But there is a report online saying it is a scam.
Anybody have an idea on how do find one -some good service which charge a fee but after you find a rental, not before?
Al; start by looking on GSMLS for rental in the towns you are interested in.
110. Al
http://new.gsmls.com/public/
healthcare in this state is crumbling..
“Since 1992, 22 hospitals have closed in New Jersey, including six in the last 18 months. Of the 76 remaining hospitals, half reported losing money”
“N.J. Hospitals Rally Against Funding Cuts”
http://www.1010wins.com/N-J–Hospitals-Rally-Against-Funding-Cuts/2170223
SAS
216…Morgan fairchild? I said model not bad actress.
I have a question – what is the best way to find a SFH/townhouse/condo for rent in NJ??
Craigslist
or the classified in:
NJO.com
Northjersey.com
gsmls.com also has rental listings
So then it is RuPaul
Hoe they F you,
3 minute educational video. Excellent stuff. Why aren’t people marching to washington I don’t know. What’s it really gonn atake to understand monetizing debt means printing money.
I have no idea why news camera send camera’s and news teams to gas stations. They need to send them to the Federal Reserve.
Can you picture this:
News reporter: The price of crude is up today another 3 dollars and is now approaching $100. Did you print any money today?
Employee: off the record?(showing their ignorance)
News reporter: Sure.
Employee: Under Benanke’s orders we have been printing around the clock. According to Ben there is a high demand for dollars overseas. China is buying them in bulk and Saudies get a special pre-construction price. However, the good news is that we are looking into outsourcing the printing department to India due to high cost of paper,ink and union wages in Washington.
Just think in 6 months we will just have the Indians print the money, that they will use to pay themselves and then sell it to Chinese and the Japanese and send us the profits while we lay on the beach, play Golf and see what Brittney is up to these days.
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=byebxE9k4vo
#227 The Republicans in NJ are no saints either but they seem to do damage a bit slower than the democrats. The Democrats of NJ come in make a huge mess then try and clean up just enough before elections. NJ is so darn corrupt and so messed up that you almost have to vote for someone like Trump if he would run for office. Someone who stands to make money from a housing increase. Anyone else will just drain the state of jobs and overall value. I don’t see the state getting better any time soon with taxes so out of control. Not unless you get someone who is willing to erase the last couple years of increases but fat chance of that happening.
President wise.
I got to say I think Obama is going to win. He might take guff for not having the experience but really look at where so called experience has gotten us? At this point I’m willing to take a chance on someone who lacks experience. His religious items throw up a red flag but come on when has any other candidates religious beliefs really been emphasized to work for the people.
Hillary is just telling people what they want to hear just to get votes to get into office. I just don’t believe what she has to say.
Bush killed any possibility of a republican winning.
The sellers told me their house was near the water. It was in the basement.
I have a temporary mortgage. What do you mean temporary? Until they foreclose.
Realtor: first you folks tell me what you can afford, then we’ll have a good laugh and go on from there.
There is no longer a need for the neutron bomb. We already have something that destroys people and leaves buildings intact. It’s called a mortgage.
My buyers went through debt consolidation. Now they have only one bill they won’t pay.
I listed a maintenance free house. In the last 25 years there hasn’t been any maintenance.
This country is great. It’s the only place where you can borrow money for a downpayment, get a 1st and 2nd
mortgage and call yourself a homeowner.
The house was more covered with mortgages than with paint.
A man’s home is his castle. That’s how it seems when he pays taxes on it.
Sign next to FSBO-We shoot every third agent and the 2nd one just left.
From the Star Ledger:
Trump blasts state for backing out of EnCap project
New Jersey broke its promise to help finance the $1 billion EnCap development in the Meadowlands that collapsed last week, Donald Trump wrote in a scathing letter to a top-ranking state official today.
“I do not believe the courts will allow you to get away with this,” Trump wrote in the letter to Gary Rose, the state’s economic development czar.
The New Jersey Meadowlands Commission voted on Wednesday to sever ties with EnCap, and the company filed for Chapter 11 bankruptcy protection the next day. Trump, who joined the project as manager in November, had recently expressed interest in buying out EnCap’s main backer, Cherokee Investment Partners.
In the letter, Trump accused Gov. Jon Corzine of reneging on a commitment to allow an upfront payment backed by future tax revenues from the site.
The state’s decision to pull the plug on EnCap last week was “unfair and wrong,” Trump wrote.
From the Star Ledger:
Sources: Feared state revenue shortfall now looks like a windfall
Legislative budget analysts now believe New Jersey will end up with a windfall, not a shortfall, over the next 13 months.
In March, the non-partisan Office of Legislative Services feared the state might be facing a $134 million revenue gap for the rest of the current fiscal year and for the full fiscal year that begins this July 1. But tax collections in the current year are running well ahead of earlier projections, according to legislative sources. And that will help offset an expected downturn in revenue during the new year.
The bottom line: The OLS now estimates $370 million more revenue through June 2009 than it had projected, the sources said.
That number assumes current year revenues will be nearly $600 million above administration projections made in February. However, it also assumes revenues in the next budget year will be about $200 million below projections.
Both OLS Budget Director David Rosen and Treasurer David Rousseau will officially announce their updated revenue figures Tuesday during a meeting of the Senate Budget and Approprations Committee.
Gov. Jon Corzine today declined to discuss the numbers in advance, or any budget adjustments he and Rousseau will propose.
“This is already a tough budget. It’s already an enormous challenge, as I hear repeatedly on the streets outside the Statehouse,” he said, referring to a rally protesting hospital budget cuts that was being held outside as he spoke in the governor’s outer office.
“We have a responsibility, both constitutionally and I believe actually a moral responsibility, to spend no more than what we take in,” Corzine said.
#232: “healthcare in this state is crumbling..”
NJ politicians had to choose between illegal immigrants and US citizens/LPRs. Unfortunately, they chose illegals. Take that NJ tax-payers. Hope you enjoyed voting for them.
NJ should follow the example set by AZ and increasingly, other southern states: Deny public benefits (including using ERs as HMO) from illegals. Illegals self-deported them quickly and problem solved in AZ. No more overcrowding and gangs in schools or hospitals and budget (and taxes) can be cut.
Anyway, I don’t expect the sheep in NJ to wake up and vote the bums out of office.
njpatient Says:
May 12th, 2008 at 3:56 pm
207 movin
I don’t think that study takes into account secondary effects, such as secondhand smoke, as costs.
njp: somehow I am also guessing TVM….
“Bush killed any possibility of a republican winning.”
Anything can happen, but in most polls McCain is tied or leading against Obama, and polls tend to overstate the support for black candidates. Also, challenger has usually a big lead at this point (Kerry had big lead in 04 etc).
Obama’s great image as a post-racial, bipartisan uniter is gone forever, he has little support beyond academic elite and AA community. White working-class (who cling to God and guns) will vote for McCain, and they are important in states like PA, MI, OH. McCain has actual record of bipartisanship and I expect him to win easily against Obama. Pretty much any other Dem candidate would have won, but not Obama.
In senate and house, dems will win big (despite losing many blue-collar districts because of obama).
Hillary would have won easily.
“Believe It: Condo Sales Slow”
http://www.nysun.com/real+estate/believe-it-condo-sales-slow
SAS
jamil,
So these same “White working-class (who cling to God and guns)” would have voted for Hillary over McCain?
SAS
What era M5?
#245: they are dems and voted in dem primaries..but they are still culturally conservative and most do not vote for obama. See another proof of this tomorrow as Hillary trounces Obama.
jamil Says:
May 12th, 2008 at 4:57 pm
“Bush killed any possibility of a republican winning.”
McCain has actual record of bipartisanship and I expect him to win easily against Obama. Pretty much any other Dem candidate would have won, but not Obama.
Hillary would have won easily.
j: I think I agree with you. I’ve have no idea what kind of debater McCain is, and whether he is full of gaffes, but I think it is pretty clear that McCain is going to crush Obama. FL, PA, OH, MI are going to go for McCain which means Obama is DOA……
E60 M5
SAS
Dont leave out the Oprah factor. Those millions of stay at home women with nothing better to do might get out to vote. Whatever Oprah tells them to do they do. Factor in the Oprah book club and you have some base numbers to work with.
Sybarite,
wanna go for a ride and blow the doors off those young & dumb fist pumpers along the Jersey shore during the summertime?
now that alot of fun too!!
SAS
oprah audience got mad already (they loved Hillary) and Oprah had to stop it..So it didn’t work too well, after all.
McCain is going to crush Obama
I’ll take some of that action.
That idiotic ‘100 years in Iraq’ line is going to hurt him. That hugging Bush can’t help, except maybe in NC.
McCain, Clinton, and Obama.
same heads of same snake.
They all are puppets for the same corporate interests.
SAS
#206 gary:I’m not holding my breath on the price drop scenario.
They are already happening, give it anoterh 6 to 12 months, and you will see some really significant price drops. No doubt about it.
Is there any way we can just start the nomination process over again?
Surely, there must be some “do over” provision, somewhere.
ARLINGTON, VIRGINIA – Republican Presidential candidate Ron Paul’s newest book, “The Revolution: A Manifesto”, is number one on the New York Times Best Sellers list for May 18th, 2008. The ranking is yet another of the many successes Dr. Paul has had during his presidential candidacy spreading his message of personal freedom and constitutional government.
Upon its official release on April 30th, “The Revolution: A Manifesto” was the number one bestseller on Amazon.com and remains the number one bestseller in political books.
One million people voted for him, he has a bestselling book what is it gonna take for Ron Paul to get some attention fron Joe Six pack.
45:
Not even the small number of people abov us on the economic food chain. Fools and their money SHOULD be parted.
Dude, STFU. Seriously.
Unless you’re just trolling with a Thurston Howell, III-type persona. If so, then keep up the good work..
“Ron Paul”
big supporter here.
I donated to the blimp.
SAS
sas Says:
May 12th, 2008 at 5:22 pm
McCain, Clinton, and Obama.
same heads of same snake.
They all are puppets for the same corporate interests.
SAS
Was there a questioning of this fact?
243 jamil
we must be looking at different polls
shytown,
no
SAS
253 schab
“I’ll take some of that action.”
So will I.
254 sas
“They all are puppets for the same corporate interests.”
That’s what Nader said in 2000 in claiming there was no difference between Bush and Gore.
That didn’t work out so well.
schabadoo Says:
May 12th, 2008 at 5:20 pm
McCain is going to crush Obama
I’ll take some of that action.
s: there are three groups…the ignant; the bleeding; and the mercenary……when you look at how that falls against the backdrop of the electoral college…..I see red….
FYI – McCain might carry NJ you know….think about it….
256 grim
“Surely, there must be some “do over” provision, somewhere.”
I’ll bet clotpoll could come up with one.
“Nader”
Nader is kind of a moron, but he did enough to take votes. Probabley away from Gore.
So, third party candidates can have causal effects.
If Ron Paul went third party.. huge effect.
SAS
jamil
try this for polls
http://tinyurl.com/2yke8u
of course, none of these are meaningful until after both conventions have ocurred.
267 sas
Agree
Bob Barr has also decided to run as a libertarian, which may have an effect.
well, just got “The Man from Snowy River”
from the Netflicks..
gotta go
SAS
265 chi
anything can happen, but RCP average has Obama by 10% over McCain in NJ.
http://tinyurl.com/6jncwc
#267 – If Ron Paul went third party.. huge effect.
He won’t though. I’m pretty sure he’s already stated as much.
A much more likely possibility is Hillary launching an vain-glorious 3rd party run.
Jamil, actually I think has it right on many counts. Obama will have a hard time pulling the general electorate, California, NY, NJ as always will go blue but I see PA, OH, etc. going red. Obama lacks the experience in running against the republicans in a national election, Hillary might have stood a better chance because the Clintons are very adept in elections. The truth is the democrats are weak because they have proven 9/10 of the time they select unelectable people and combinations. Gore-Liberman why combine two boring people, Kerry-Edwards the windbag did all of the talking, Edwards is a much better public figure but too leftist to be generally popular, I can’t wait to see who they will saddle Obama with.
McCain will win and it might be a good thing for the Dems. McCain will be forced to address the federal spending and deficit, he will have to raise taxes and cut programs, never popular, all while the economy is going down the tubes, wages are falling, unemployment is up, and prices are up. I think he just might do the right, unpopular responsible things and be utterly hated for it. 3 terms of republican rule will discontent the American public, the public will surprisingly swing left again and the Dems being very frustrated will let someone run who they normally wouldn’t. I really think if Liberman weren’t on the ticket and Edwards was Bush would have never been elected and the country would be better off as a result.
So while Jamil seems to be the target right now I also think he is correct about oil, it will not trend back to $40, but eventually $60-80 per barrel because of increased output in Iraq, alternative energy sources ie. genetically engineered sugar beets for ethanol, algae for biodiesel,electricity being produced from newer nuclear plants, improved solar panels, and new wind farms. Or how about coal gasification if we could get a diesel like substance from coal using a process that is substantially better than the fischer-troph process we could reduce the need for foreign diesel. Americans have the resources, technology, intelligence, education, and now motivation to build alternative sources of energy. To dismiss this notion severely underestimates the research dollars being spent by the gov, universities, and private industry. If we could reduce our oil dependency by 20% it will have a big impact on oil prices.
What ever happens it is only going to get worse before it finally gets better. American’s need to prove we still have the intangible qualities that are conducive to creating solutions to our problems, toughing up and dealing with the excesses, and fixing whats wrong with this country. I for one believe the US still has it and for all of its problems the empire will not collapse.
#268: thanks. (national polls are not that relevant – ask Pres Gore).
Anyway, in OH and FL McCain is leading in all polls (3 in both states). That alone is enough to win. It does not matter if illegals in CA and dead people in IL give extra 10M votes for Obama. Today was also one poll showing McCain leading in MI.
oh and btw…
when I was out on the Cam Lo… I inhaled;)
see post 229
Ciao
SAS
To follow-up on a Ron Paul 3rd party run;
“I have no intention of doing that,” Paul said.
source;
http://deseretnews.com/article/content/mobile/0,5223,695210444,00.html
He would have my vote though.
jcer: I agree that the winner of the 2008 election has a strong shot of being a one-term president.
jamil at 243
“Anything can happen, but in most polls McCain is tied or leading against Obama”
jamil at 274
“#268: thanks. (national polls are not that relevant – ask Pres Gore)”
Shifting goalposts a bit? National polls were important until you found out they didn’t say what you thought they said.
277 chi
I’d bet the house.
Just pulled the new issue of the Economist out of the mailbox. (Really ticked off that I no longer get these on Fridays)
Obama on the cover. Looks like a whole issue dedicated to him, but I haven’t read it yet.
Shifting goalposts a bit?
Your use of facts may have thrown him off.
#251
Yes please.
last time I checked, elections were decided on state level. The fact is, that according to the current state polls, McCain has a strong lead and he would win easily (because of FL and OH).
283 jamil
That’s nice, but it’s not what you said. But leaving that aside, what source are you using for all state polls?
Patient
Hören Sie auf, um die Troll zuzuführen
i know I should not feed them..
anyway, rcp has 3 polls both for FL and OH. McCain is leading in all of them.
286 jamil
“rcp has 3 polls both for FL and OH. McCain is leading in all of them.”
So that’s what you were referring to when you said “in most polls McCain is tied or leading against Obama”?
Got it.
1. Don’t think you’ll get much input regarding weight/clothing sizes from the female contingent. Certainly not from me.
2. Don’t think it is possible to make any predictions regarding the election yet. Neither has started going after the other, neither have had the “presidential” media treatment yet (the primary has proved a distraction), neither has been favored and then turned on by the media as always happens. There have been no debates or after debate gabfest. McCain hasn’t been raked over the coals yet as the Repub primary was pretty short. Obama already has had some laundry aired – which might help in a world with a 15 minute attention span, or might hurt in that he has been “defined” already. I think it is too early to call, at least until the nominations are officially locked in.
3. Whoever wins is royally scr*wed. To such an extent that I am seriously considering voting for whoever I like the least as winning would be quite a punishment.
It’s important to have a jamil around; like Pretorius (where has he been), a counterpoint to the consensus is always welcome as long as it remains respectful and inoffensive, unlike that JLB character from a while back.
#248 chifi
“j: I think I agree with you. I’ve have no idea what kind of debater McCain is”
Bill Clinton would crush them all. He is a master debater.
SG 166, 178
Grim 171, 180
I hear that Washington is “re-assessing” the houses on Alvin Sloan. The taxes there are frankly ridiculous, the school system is not THAT good… Crazy that the taxes would be nearly the same as the mortgage each month…
Took a ride over to Elston in Montclair, what a wreck.
I think it might be a good opportunity, but only on three conditions. You get it for approx. $475k, you’ve got $150k to dump into it, and you’ve got a contractor you trust. Even if you pushed it up closer to $650k, it would end up being a better value than anything currently available in the price range.
However, when you factor taxes in, it is another story entirely. However, realize that it is a 6br/3.3ba home.
Walking the property was surreal, I remember when the Burgdorff agent was telling me what a steal it was at $649k in 2005.
Perspective is an amazingly powerful tool.
# 258 Jamie,
Despite your persuasive use of the Queen’s English, I will pass on your suggestion to shut up. Clearly you missed my point, which was that although Mrs. Shore and I do much better than most people, and have the AMT scars to show for it, even we found RE to be priced unreasonably back as far as 2000; people with far lower net worth and far less yearly incomes were making RE purchases that we found unreasonably expensive at terms that made us uncomfortable.
In the final analysis, many people made serious miscalculations and took unreasonable risks. In our system, such foolish moves get punished by economic pain. It has ever been thus.
“It’s important to have a jamil around”
Sybarite[289],
Yeah, just enlightening. Last night we learned that crude was in a bubble because it was traded on an exchange. Before you know it, we’ll probably hear something outlandish, like baseball incorporating a DH?
It is fun to have a jamil or pret in the house. Keeps things interesting having another point of view. Otherwise we’d would be debating is this bust going to suck or really suck. Is it the SS Minnow on a 3 hour tour or the Titanic?
syb,
i was not ignoring you about your friend today. but didnt want to discuss it on a company network. i will stop by your office tomorrow
295 BC (and kettle too)
Interesting post by Kevin “Oil” Drum today:
“AN OIL BUBBLE? Every month the Energy Information Agency releases a near-term energy forecast, and as oil prices have been skyrocketing it turns out that the EIA has been a model of consistency: every month they predict that oil prices have peaked and are about to start declining. In May the EIA analysts got a little frisky and predicted a plateau for the next few months instead of an immediate decline, but needless to say, the market failed to cooperate. Prices continued to rise.So take the EIA forecasts with a grain of salt. The problem is that they, like many others, seem to believe that we’re in the middle of an oil bubble that’s being sustained by reckless speculators. My own hunch is that although speculation may be playing a role in the current runup, it’s only a small one. Fundamentally, prices are going up because demand is growing and supply isn’t. Paul Krugman agrees, and points out that artificially high prices can’t be sustained for long, since eventually supply will go up and demand will go down, breaking the bubble:The only way speculation can have a persistent effect on oil prices, then, is if it leads to physical hoarding — an increase in private inventories of black gunk. This actually happened in the late 1970s, when the effects of disrupted Iranian supply were amplified by widespread panic stockpiling.But it hasn’t happened this time: all through the period of the alleged bubble, inventories have remained at more or less normal levels. This tells us that the rise in oil prices isn’t the result of runaway speculation; it’s the result of fundamental factors, mainly the growing difficulty of finding oil and the rapid growth of emerging economies like China. The rise in oil prices these past few years had to happen to keep demand growth from exceeding supply growth.The lesson of those EIA forecasts is twofold. First, trying to predict short-term price fluctuations is a mug’s game. They might go up, they might go down, and nobody knows which. Second, the overall trend is nonetheless up. Eventually, high prices will reduce demand and prices should level out a bit, but this might take a while since energy consumption is famously inelastic in the short term. But that’s what it’s going to take: change in the real world. This isn’t a bubble, it’s Adam Smith in action.”
grim,
i like the new format!
Another interesting one from Drum:
” JINGLE MAIL….Has there been a sea change in the way Americans view the responsibility of paying off their mortgages? Has it become common to simply toss the keys to your house in the mailbox and walk away if you don’t feel like making your payments any more? Even if you can afford to? This has recently acquired the status of conventional wisdom, but Michael Hiltzik of the LA Times says there’s a problem with this story:When pressed for the number of borrowers who could afford their mortgage payments, major banks and lender groups could not produce numbers figures.Nor could the Mortgage Bankers Assn., the leading trade group for housing lenders….Wachovia’s [Don] Truslow acknowledged during the bank’s conference call April 14 that walkaways were “hard to quantify.”….Bank of America spokesman Terry Francisco said the bank had seen indications that some homeowners were taking pains to keep their credit card accounts current at the expense of their mortgage balances….But he said the bank did not have “firm figures” on how many homeowners were unnecessarily defaulting on their mortgages…..At Fannie Mae, the government-chartered company that owns or guarantees billions of dollars in home mortgages, Senior Vice President Marianne Sullivan conceded that there was growing “folklore” about residential walkaways but said that the phenomenon was more likely connected to investors than people who live in their homes, or “owner-occupants.””The vast majority of borrowers we find have been acting in good faith,” she said. “If they get behind, they are interested in working with their lender.”If this is right, there’s been no sea change at all. What there’s been is a huge increase in houses purchased by speculators and a huge increase in lenders willing to provide them with mortgages. Unsurprisingly, it turns out that speculators are willing to walk away from mortgages if they no longer look like a profitable investment, but this says nothing about the attitudes of ordinary homeowners. What it says is that banks should be careful about loaning money to speculators.But they weren’t, so now they’re trying to construct an urban legend about feckless home buyers who are defaulting not because their loans are resetting and they can’t afford them, but merely because they feel like it.”
patient
i think everyone here knows my stance by now, so i have tried to layoff some of the energy talk. that is a good source you have sited though
may i present…
http://www.thingsyoungerthanmccain.com/?m=200805
Shore – from Saturday
Asbury Park
I came close to buying in North Beach, but decided not to have such a high overhead for a weekend place. Also looked at Wesley Grove but did not appreciate the poor construction quality.
My place is in downtown, near Cookman Ave. , within walking distance to everything.
301 ket
I hear you.
I have to amuse myself somehow, though, and most of what I’d want to talk about that would be fully apropos of the blog is off limits. Accordingly, y’all have to make do with my generalized OT blathering most of the time.
This was a good one:
Earlier i posted that on my offer (i believe it was quite fair offer (it was based on rents for bigger homes in the area +5% premium at 100% occupancy. I did like the house.
Just happened that number I came up with was 19% off listing price (listed at 2006 high price). they came back with 2.8% off (10K)
So I said to my Realtor that i am coming back with anything higher – take my offer or I withdraw it. Realtor tried to convince me to leave the offer on a table in home that seller will eventually “change their mind”.
I said – why would I give them a chance to go around shopping my offers – even car dealerships do not so that.
Later on Realtor called my wife and said – ” you need to decide if you are serious about buying a house, that time is running out (our current lease is ending in July) and HOUSE RENTS ARE GOING UP BECAUSE OF ELECTION YEAR!!!!!!”
Unfortunately here goes another Realtor…
I showed them a certified check for 10% of house price to accompany my offer. Two pre-approval letters and I have being looking for a home for a month and a half.
How am I not serious. And calling my wife and trying to push me through her – well that just pissed me off.
patient [298],
Although I’m long term bullish, I got short today, for a trade, put spread. The widening of the future spreads, recent action, threw up a flashing signal, for me.
Al
“And calling my wife and trying to push me through her – well that just pissed me off.”
I had a former realtor try that one when we were on the market in early ’07. Little did she realize that Mrs. Patient is far tougher than me, and that she’d just placed the final straw on the back of Mrs. Patient’s camel (earlier straws labelled “you’ll insult the seller” and “you have to understand that the market in Brigadoon is different” and “do you know who Jeff Otteau is? Because he says…” were already on the back of that camel).
This is the same realtor who has been stalking us over the course of the past few weeks wanting our business going forward, and who sent me an email the other day acknowledging that we were right and she was wrong about the market in general but that it looks like “now is a good time to buy.” Mrs. Patient’s camel is out back looking nervous.
306 BC
Absolutely – and I can see there being a time when we get a ~20% to 30% drop in price if we start treating the dollar like something more valueable than Scottissue, but I also think the long term trend is inexorably higher. Could we see a temporary drop to $90? Sure. Could we see a drop to $60? Not a snowball’s chance in brick oven.
SAS
You were in Nam?!?
Ok, so I’m admittedly not a finance guy. But, why is the USD so weak right now? Isn’t this weakness partly the root cause of the current oil runup?
Can the causes of the weak USD be reversed by, say, raising the FFR marginally?
What harm would be incurred by such a raise in the FFR, aside from a potential dip in investment activity?
patient,
I agree.
I’m playing the 100/90 Nov put spread.
wanna go for a ride and blow the doors off those young & dumb fist pumpers along the Jersey shore during the summertime?
I’ll take my 650 Suzuki over the M5 for the summer months. 0-60 in 3.5s will leave that M5 at the lights.
#295: “Yeah, just enlightening. Last night we learned that crude was in a bubble because it was traded on an exchange.”
are you always distorting the comments made by other people? As you should know very well, the idea was that the recent influx of new money – coming from speculators – and new financial vehicles (that make it easier for speculators) may be big part of the recent bubble. I believe that this is the case, you may disagree, but please stop distorting my comments.
312
You have to fight fair. Apples & oranges, etc…
I’ll take the M5 over any bike, thank you very much. (I don’t have one, btw)
just came across this
The Legal Responsibility of Adult Children to Care for Indigent Parents
http://www.ncpa.org/pub/ba/ba521/
somewhat OT but not completely given how the boomers are going to have a big impact on their way out
Grim,
Drove by Elston today. Its a nice location, good size house. You know, if you can plow 150K into it, you’ll make out big. The taxes are a problem, but if you compare that house to what’s on the market and to the houses that have gone U/C in montclair YTD ’08 – its a good deal.
any open houses planned?
313 jamil
To be fair, here’s your comment:
“Oil futures are now traded in the market, and in recent years, there have been massive influx of new money there. So, it is not only supply/demand, but speculative investors buying long-term oil futures (contracts). Classic definition of bubble.”
It’s not entirely clear to me that this is so different than BC’s purported summary of your words, but perhaps I’m being obtuse.
314 syb
Never bring oranges to an apple fight, I always say.
“You were in Nam?!?”
yes.
and my happiest moment during the war was when I found out I was going home ;)
SAS
BC – phone for you.
It’s Ron Blomberg.
319 SAS
well, I’m sure glad you made it back! If you wind up at a GTG, I’m likely to pester you for stories.
321
Speaking of which, when will the mystery meeting take place?
any open houses planned?
Not likely, it is an as-is, buyer responsible for everything listing. Also being handled by a REO firm. This won’t be sold to an off-the-street buyer.
I can get in if you want to take a look, I’m about 10 minutes away.
“I’m likely to pester you for stories”
I’m ok with that. I actually tell a story from time to time on these blogs.
Shytown, Grim, and BC might know some of them too.
SAS
#305 Al,
tactics like claiming rents are going to go up because it’s an election year should be illegal. Very unethical behavior from that agent.
To strengthen the dollar we can:
1) Cut spending so as to eliminate the obscene deficits and balance the federal budget;
2) Start accelerated payments on the debt that we have already accumulated;
3) honestly deal with financing the medicaid/social security time bomb, even if it requires cutting benefits;
4) Invest (within the confines of a balanced budget) in solar, wind, and other energy sources so as to make the U.S. independent of foreign (including Canadian and Mexican) oil. If we do not need overseas oil and Europe, Japan, China still do, we will have a real advantage and freedom from the actions of despots, thus making our economic base more secure.
If we had spent all of the Iraq $ this way, just think about how much better of we would be as an economy.
“and my happiest moment during the war was when I found out I was going home”
but, I admit. Before I returned to the states, took a nice I & I trip to the red light district of Bankok.
thats something you should experience.
SAS
324 sas
Now I feel like a cad – I’ve been around too long not to have known that.
“To strengthen the dollar we can:”
ELIMINATE the Fed!
The Federal is neither private nor does it have reserves. Its a private banking cartel with monopoly over our monetary supply/system.
I think I would make that #1 on your list.
SAS
Shore guy – agreed, and vehemently, on all points. And I’m no Reagan appointee.
“Very unethical behavior from that agent.”
Any time a buyer’s agent produces BS reasons why the buyer should be paying more, you’ve got a serious problem.
72 make $
“If you’re looking to take jamil to school I hope you cleared you afternoon.”
You must have forgotten the blowout that took place on this thread:
https://njrereport.com/2008/03/07/weekend-open-discussion-105/
Shore Guy,
review the Argentine economic crisis.
Sounds very familiar, does it not?
SAS
…may explain why Chicagofinance didn’t have to roll up his sleeves today.
OK – that’s enough of the office for today. I’m going to make like a stocking and run.
SAS
here is a radical idea….
drop the fiat currency and replace it with a currency that it based on the ultimate arbiter of price….energy. lock the dollar to a given quantity of energy
i.e 1 dollar is the equivalent of 1 (watt-second) also known as 1 joule.
Hi everyone,
I’m new here, but I’ve been reading this blog for a few weeks now. I want to move back to northern NJ (currently in LI) but I still think prices are insane. I’m in finance, make decent money, and ample down-payment. I just can’t bring myself to dumb 500k on POS house. I would say that is entry level in northern NJ. I would gladly pay the money if I thought the house was worth it.
To use a baseball analogy – what inning would you say we are in relation to this housing blow-up??
“replace it with a currency that it based on the ultimate arbiter of price….energy.”
sure, but let me rephrase that for you.
It should read:
replace it with a currency that it based on the ultimate arbiter of price…..military power.
The only reason the dollar is currency of the world. True, it is the sickman in the house. But, the Fed is destroying it, and military might (i.e wars) will save it.
Not that I agree with this tactic, but this is usually the case.
thoughts?
SAS
SAS
Military power is only available to those who have money….. money requires a strong economy….. a strong economy requires ready access to energy. hence you cannot have military might without energy.
while the form of energy a society harnesses changes over time. all societies are based on it. where that energy comes from slaves working ancient egyption fields or great britian clear cutting the entire isle to burn the wood, or the US invading IRAQ for oil.
njp – don’t feel bad, I didn’t know either!
SAS – would love to hear some of the stories! My sister’s BF was in ‘Nam, too.
some of my fav stories are my Dad’s from WWII – on a destroyer- USS Case.
sl
To use a baseball analogy – what inning would you say we are in relation to this housing blow-up??
Depends on where you are looking.
John (238)-
Where’d you steal that material?
Attribution…try it.
patient (266)-
Sorry, I’m fresh out.
kettle1,
I understand your points.
keep in mind money vs. currency vs. energy.
3 seperate things, although are sometimes used interchangeably, or one for the other.
make sense?
SAS
BC (295)-
Thank you for a tactful riposte. I would not have been as circumspect.
“To use a baseball analogy – what inning would you say we are in relation to this housing blow-up??”
“Depends on where you are looking.”
Grim,
Yes, it’s a cliché, but I’m looking at Bergen County. I personally think were not even halfway thru this mess (I would say 4th inning). But – more & more of my coworkers are starting to thing it is coming to an end (of course they are all home owners). I was one those on the side-lines the entire time – but I’m also starting to think that prices in BC will remain sticky… I’m caving in a bit – can some please bring me back to reality
confused (337)-
The first period’s not over yet, and the visitors have a 2-man power play for 10 minutes. Our two best wings are both in the penalty box, with majors for fighting.
Unfortunately, both wings lost their fights and are bleeding and searching the penalty box for their missing teeth.
347 clot,
Gee…and all this while I thought you were being pessimistic, you optimist! ;-)
sl
SAS
keep in mind money vs. currency vs. energy.
3 seperate things, although are sometimes used interchangeably, or one for the other.
SAS
i understand your point as well, but i would suggest this hierarchy
energy –>mind money–>currency
all three are intertwinned but consider that energy is the apple that feeds the thinker. energy is the forest thst is used to make the tools to farm and that is burned to make the iron tools and is burned to keep the thinker warm.
mind money and currency cannot function without energy.
perhaps we can debate this point at the next GTG
All this get-together talk tells me we’re long overdue.
Let’s open the dialogue already! Wasn’t it Gold Coast this time? Hoboken, perhaps?
renting&confused
the engine has stalled and now we are costing. people have lost their HELOCs and if you listen to recent news, credit card debt and delinquencies are going through the roof. once the credit cards are maxed out is when you see the big drops and all economic momentum has been spent at that point. be patient my friend. look at the charts of the 90’s housing bubble it took 5 years to really flatline. as has been said many times before. you know bottom has hit when people STOP calling a bottom and just say that housing is a loosing bet.
Kettle1,
I agree with you… Though, the “Real Estate Propaganda Machine” is all powerful -must resist!
347 clot
Lol
So our wings are buffaloed and the RE market is on ice?