Mon 19 May 2008
From the Record:
Houses owned by banks may be bargains
Vincent and Kerri Bagnaturo had been looking to trade up to a bigger place in Ridgewood for almost two years when they came upon the house they felt was the right fit for them.
It was a spacious 4-bedroom, 3-bath house with a large family room, on a 200-foot deep property in the sought-after Willard School neighborhood.
The home also was an REO. Short for real-estate-owned, REO means a home has been through foreclosure, has failed to be sold at auction and has been repossessed by the bank holding the mortgage. Banks wants to get these properties off their books, and get them sold.
…
In New Jersey, REOs are more prevalent — and generally more of a mess — in urban neighborhoods hit by the subprime crisis.“The homes in Essex County, Newark, Jersey City, Paterson can be the worst,” said Derek Eisenberg, who specializes in REO appraisals for banks through his company, Continental Real Estate Services. “I’ve had to ask for a police escort to go into crack houses where the plumbing’s been ripped out, the windows have been ripped out, the properties became vacant and got looted.”
But he’s also appraised REOs in much nicer locales, such as Saddle River and Alpine.
The Bagnaturos first saw their home — a bank-owned property in Ridgewood — late last fall, right after it came on the market.
“It was listed at $1.89 million,” Vincent Bagnaturo said. “Way out of our price range.”
The Bagnaturos made a bid of under $1 million in November. The bank countered by lowering the price $80,000.
“We just sat tight,” Bagnaturo said. “They [the bank] sat tight and we sat tight. My assumption is that, over the course of time, they realized they were well overpriced.”
At the end of January, the bank lowered the asking price to $1.4 million. The Bagnaturos bid again, and, after a series of negotiations, won the house for $1,050,000.
…
The last big surge of bank-owned properties on the market was in the early 1990s during the savings and loan crisis, Eisenberg said.Real estate agent Mole bought an REO herself in the early ’90s.
“In those days, foreclosed houses never made it to the Realtors or to the Multiple Listing Service,” Mole said.
“You had to watch the sheriff’s auctions or you had to know somebody at the bank. I knew the guy at the bank. I had gotten divorced and my salary was low at the time. I said [to the banker], ‘Would you give me a mortgage?’ He said, ‘I’ll not only give you a mortgage, I’ll sell you a house.’ He got me into a beautiful house that I was able to buy for much less than its assessed value.”
…
REO specialist Stajek believes North Jersey will see even greater numbers of REOs for sale in the near future.“The country as a whole has not yet seen what is going to happen with REOs,” Stajek said. “Inventory is going to double. In Bergen County, we’ve just barely scratched the surface.”
May 19th, 2008 at 5:58 am
From Bloomberg:
Post-Subprime Economy Means Subpar Growth as New Normal in U.S.
A normal U.S. economy is likely to look a lot different, and worse, after the credit crisis is over and financial markets settle down.
Companies will continue to struggle to raise cash for expansion and innovation as investors and lenders remain focused on conserving capital. Workers, too, may have less flexibility to go after new opportunities, because many will be stuck where they are — in homes worth less than the balances on their mortgages.
“Once you’ve made terrible, overly optimistic errors, that paralyzes you for some time,” says economist Paul Samuelson, a Nobel laureate.
The bottom line: The U.S. may have to get used to a new definition of normal, characterized by weaker productivity gains, slower economic growth, higher unemployment and a diminished financial-services industry.
Long-term growth in the U.S. may drop to 2 percent to 2.5 percent a year from the 3 percent rate of the last 15 years, according to Peter Hooper, chief U.S. economist at Deutsche Bank Securities in New York and a former Federal Reserve official.
Even after markets recover, “the cost of risk capital is likely to be significantly higher than during the credit bubble,” he says.
May 19th, 2008 at 6:11 am
Market analysis, Texas-style
DALLAS–If you’re going to bring together the nation’s real estate journalists for a conference, you might as well do it in what is arguably the most stable housing market in the country.
They’re fond of saying here that in the housing boom, North Texas home prices never registered the meteoric rise as elsewhere in the country, so it’s unlikely the region’s prices will swoon the way they have in Florida, California, Nevada and Arizona—the four horsemen of the housing apocalypse.
Gaines told the journalists he expects national home prices to slide 8 to 14 percent before the market bottoms out. That could take until 2010, owing to the ongoing pressure of re-setting adjustable-rate mortgages, he said. And those ARMs aren’t solely of the notorious subprime variety, Gaines said.
“Subprimes aren’t the only iceberg in choppy waters,” he said. Prime ARMs (for borrowers with decent credit) were involved in a disproportionate share of foreclosures initiated in the fourth quarter of 2007: Though prime ARMs amounted to 15 percent of outstanding loans at that time, they represented 20 percent of all foreclosures started in that period, he said.
**
That means, besides listings of properties for sale, consumers have an insatiable appetite for data on neighborhoods, schools, crime and anything else that might affect their buying decisions, according to a panel of thinkers representing Realtor.com, Google and Zillow.com
May 19th, 2008 at 6:15 am
Inflation and credit crunch prompts pessimism over growth prospects
British businesses’ confidence in the state of the economy plunged during April, according to a survey from Lloyds TSB, with 70 per cent of companies pessimistic about prospects for economic growth.
Lloyds said confidence had been hit by rising oil prices, the fact that high inflation has reduced the chances of interest rate cuts this year, and the credit crunch. The picture painted by the survey is the gloomiest since the bank began researching business confidence in 2002.
Trevor Williams, Lloyds TSB’s chief economist, said: “For some time, the threat of a downturn has been looming, and now firms are becoming even more concerned as fuel prices rise further. With inflation on the rise, it’s highly unlikely that the Bank of England will be cutting interest rates any time soon, and that may be weighing heavily on some businesses.”
May 19th, 2008 at 6:16 am
“Houses owned by banks may be bargains”
keywords: may be
not so sure uf people would want to buy a house that has been left abandoned and left for up keep my the banks, and to buy in a neighborhood that has forclosed homes.
Because were there is one, there is another, and where there is forclosures, there is twice as many on the brink.
This headline and article sounds like a talking point just to try and attempt to peek peoples interst and get them motivated back into RE.
If you think the RE market has cooled off and are some slight price declines in your area, let me say this to you:
Baby!, you ain’t seen nothing yet.
SAS
May 19th, 2008 at 6:17 am
This headline and article sounds like a talking point just to try and attempt to peek peoples interst and get them motivated back into RE.
It is, read the byline, “Special to the Record”.
May 19th, 2008 at 6:18 am
Grim,
I’m calling it now.
I expect Citi to either collapse, or the Fed will have to do a JPM resuce on it sometime this year or next.
lets keep a watchful eye ;)
SAS
May 19th, 2008 at 6:18 am
Gloom & Doom Economist: Credit Crunch Will Spread
The credit crunch is far from over and is likely to hit sectors other than housing, Marc Faber, Editor and Publisher of “The Gloom, Boom & Doom Report”, told “Squawk Box Europe.”
Consumers will cut spending because of the high oil and energy prices, and all that the recent rally in stocks has shown is that investors think shares offer a better cushion against inflation than bonds, Faber added.
“I personally think we are just starting the credit crunch and it is going to be worse,” he said. “I think the economy really stinks and the next sector to be hit, in America and elsewhere, is retail.”
May 19th, 2008 at 6:19 am
“It is, read the byline, “Special to the Record”.
ya got me. I missed that one.
;)
SAS
May 19th, 2008 at 6:22 am
Hollywood bust as celebrities feel the credit crunch
Dido may be able to play the piano and the violin, but coping with the Hollywood property market has meant a little fine-tuning for the mistress of hotel-foyer melodies. The 36-year-old British singer has become the latest celebrity to take a hit as high-end houses in America show signs of falling prey to the sub-prime mortgage crisis.
Until recently, mega-rich homeowners felt themselves immune to the trouble afflicting those who Leona Helmsley, the late billionaire property investor, liked to call “the little people”. Yet a survey for The Sunday Times conducted by Zillow.com, a website that tracks house prices in America, has found that reality has begun to catch up with the cost of property even in the smartest postcodes.
May 19th, 2008 at 6:24 am
Credit crunch not over yet - Trichet
European Central Bank President Jean-Claude Trichet has warned that the end of the credit crunch is not yet in sight. He also told BBC radio the world was experiencing an ‘ongoing and very significant market correction’.
Mr Trichet said policymakers needed to make containing inflation their priority. ‘Price stability and credibility in price stability in the medium term is the best way to have a high level of sustainable growth and sustainable job creation,’ he said.
May 19th, 2008 at 6:26 am
also, I watched the Lindsey Williams “The Energy Non-Crisis” on the google video yesterday.
For the first 3o minutes of it, I thought this guy is a kook just trying to sell a book. But, as he continued on, and knowing what I know and whom I know, that guy isn’t really too far off.
He leaves some factors out, but he does highlight on a very good point.
SAS
May 19th, 2008 at 6:27 am
U.S. Recession to End by September, Business Economists Say
May 19 (Bloomberg) — The U.S. economy will probably exit from a recession by the end of the next quarter as credit markets improve after a year of turmoil, according to a survey by the National Association for Business Economics.
The worst of the U.S. credit crunch and housing slump is about over, and growth will pick up to 2.1 percent in the second half, according to the poll of 52 professional forecasters taken April 17 to May 1. More than 60 percent of the economists surveyed predicted that businesses and consumers will find it easier to borrow in the final six months of the year.
May 19th, 2008 at 6:31 am
From CNN/Money:
Why you just can’t seem to save enough
Your mortgage is prime. Your credit-card balance is reasonable. You’ve set aside some money for retirement. Feeling like you’ve done all you should? Didn’t think so.
All signs point to an economic slowdown, and there’s a real risk that it will be a nasty one. Jobs look shaky, food and gas prices are up, and the credit you thought would be there in an emergency could get a lot more expensive.
Even if you’ve been better than the average American about saving, you probably wish that you had a bigger cash cushion right now. And if you’re at all like me, you’ve been looking around your house lately and wondering, “Why didn’t I put the money I spent on that in the bank?”
Seriously, there are shirts in my closet that would make Daisy Buchanan weep…and I get misty too when I think of the cash I wasted on them. What can I say? I bought them during the booming ’90s when I covered Wall Street, where even the bit players dressed like minor British royals. I knew other reporters - reporters - who had their shirts custom-made. My off-the-rack extravagances seemed sensible by comparison.
In short, I got caught up in a kind of consumer mob. It’s no secret that our spending habits are driven in part by the crowd we’re in. But there’s more going on here than envy and status seeking. Most of us don’t like doing math, and even fewer enjoy keeping a budget. When deciding whether a big expense is reasonable or not, we often take mental shortcuts. One of the easiest is to look at what people we know are doing.
May 19th, 2008 at 6:32 am
#6 sas,
I think you may be right with Citi. A friend wants me to apply to them but I’m pretty hesitant about going to work for them.
May 19th, 2008 at 6:32 am
Shore (204, yesterday)-
“Islamist candidates won 24 of 50 seats in Kuwait’s parliamentary elections on Saturday, a gain of two seats over their total in the last round of elections there two years ago, according to official results released Sunday.”
Does this mean that Bush, the senior, can no longer visit Kuwait?
May 19th, 2008 at 6:33 am
From the NY Post:
LANDLORDS SLASHING CITY RENTS
Some New York City landlords are dropping their rents and offering up more incentives in a bid to woo tenants in the sluggish economy, several real-estate brokers told The Post.
It’s still not easy to find the apartment of your dreams, but more deals are popping up and some rents are dropping - even in Manhattan, according to brokers and tenants.
“The market is softening and it’s taking longer to rent apartments,” said Steve Fuchs, director of leasing for Besen Residential.
He said he’s had several prime apartments that have languished on the market, like a studio in the East 80s for $1,325 that’s been vacant for a month.
One of his landlords recently lowered the prices on his Upper West Side apartments - knocking down the studios from $1,850 to $1,700 and one-bedrooms from $2,650 to $2,400.
“Also, more and more landlords are starting to pay a one-month fee instead of the tenant paying the fee,” said Fuchs.
Adjina Dekidjiev, rental-operations manager with Manhattan Apartments, said that April is usually slow, but it’s been even slower than usual.
“I would say the recession has a lot to do with it,” she said.
Overall, rents across Manhattan have increased modestly or stayed the same in the past 12 months - except for studios, which dropped citywide by 2 percent, according to data from Citi Habitats.
However, average rents in some areas have dipped dramatically in that time.
For example, the price of a SoHo studio dropped a whopping 24 percent - from $2,455 to $1,855 - from April ‘07 to April ‘08, according to the most recent data from Citi Habitats.
And the average rents for two-bedrooms on the Lower East Side are down almost 18 percent, from $4,144 to $3,403.
May 19th, 2008 at 6:33 am
CalPERS misjudges the landscape
SACRAMENTO — The California Public Employees’ Retirement System, which poured about $1 billion into a troubled real estate deal, is in negotiations to keep a related loan default from turning into a bankruptcy.
CalPERS, the nation’s biggest public pension fund, and its partners acquired a controlling interest in 15,000 acres of undeveloped land in the Santa Clarita Valley early last year, before the meltdown in the housing market. The land, once owned by Newhall Land and Farming Co., was appraised at $2.6 billion at the time of the CalPERS investment but has dropped considerably in value since then.
LandSource received a notice of default on April 22 after missing a payment of an undisclosed amount, and a Standard & Poor’s online newsletter, citing anonymous sources, predicted that LandSource would file for bankruptcy this month.
May 19th, 2008 at 6:35 am
From the Press of Atlantic City:
Pawnbrokers prove to be kings of weathering economic storm
It used to be said that the casino business was the one industry that was truly recession-proof. The downturn in the local gaming industry during the ongoing economic slump is testing that conventional wisdom.
So is there any business that can weather the storm?
“People pawn just to buy gas,” said Martin Wood, owner of Wood’s Loan Office in Atlantic City. “Thing’s aren’t so great out there.”
Pawnbrokers, it seems, are uniquely positioned to thrive in times of uncertainty.
“This is the type of business that does well in good times and in bad,” Wood said. “In good times, you sell a lot of merchandise, and in bad times, we make loans. We just continue to plug along. We’ve been doing this since 1927. We’ve seen it all.”
Business, he said, is up about 15 percent over the past year and a half. But there is one odd part about the upswing in pawning - while people are pawning more, people are managing to pay off their loans more at the same time.
“The redemption ratio has increased,” Wood said, “which is amazing. The amount of loans paid up to date or redeemed is up to 90 percent. It’s always been around 80 percent.”
…
There is a downside, however: Pawning is up, but purchases of goods are down.
“Sales are not good,” he said. “Then again, people don’t have too much money to spend. We’re fortunate that we don’t live on sales but on the interest.”
Interest rates here stand at about 3.7 percent per month, he said, “pretty much the lowest in the country, interest-wise.”
May 19th, 2008 at 6:37 am
Only 3.7 percent?
Will he take CDOs?
May 19th, 2008 at 6:37 am
SG (10)-
“Mr Trichet said policymakers needed to make containing inflation their priority. ‘Price stability and credibility in price stability in the medium term is the best way to have a high level of sustainable growth and sustainable job creation.”
Silly me…all this time, I thought the way to sustain growth and job creation was through hyperinflation and lying about economic statistics.
May 19th, 2008 at 6:39 am
In foreclosures, guilt by association
With no safety net, owners watch condos slide or do the work themselves
Four years ago, she bought her first condo in a glassy new Miami tower when the building was filling up. Now nearly one in six residents in the 43-story building is battling foreclosure and their contributions to the association are shrinking. Each of the remaining owners has had to chip in an extra $1,000 assessment and $50 more a month for cable and Internet. That is on top of Sanz’s $450 monthly maintenance fee.
“We have not even approached the bottom and will not approach the bottom until 2009,” said Hessam Nadji, managing director of research services at Marcus & Millichap.
May 19th, 2008 at 6:39 am
grim (19)-
Why go the a pawn shop? Take your CDOs to the window.
You won’t even feel like a loser when you go there. After they hand you your Treasury notes, they tell you how wonderful you are.
May 19th, 2008 at 6:39 am
From Bloomberg:
U.S. April Leading Economic Indicators Index Probably Unchanged
The index of U.S. leading indicators was probably unchanged in April, signaling a prolonged stagnation in growth, economists said before a report today.
The projected reading in the Conference Board’s gauge would follow a 0.1 percent gain in March, according to the median estimate of 44 economists surveyed by Bloomberg News. The measure points to the direction of the economy over the next three to six months.
The biggest housing slump in a quarter century and mounting financial losses indicate the economy will not improve after growing over the last two quarters at the slowest pace since the 2001 contraction. The odds of a recession this year are better than even, according to economists surveyed earlier this month.
“Recession remains the most apt description of the economy, but it is a very modest recession, at least so far,” said Ryan Sweet, senior economist at Moody’s Economy.com in West Chester, Pennsylvania.
The Conference Board, a New York-based research group, will issue the report at 10 a.m. Economists’ forecasts ranged from a decline of 0.6 percent to a gain of 0.2 percent.
May 19th, 2008 at 6:41 am
From Bloomberg:
Banks Hide $35 Billion in Writedowns From Income, Filings Show
Banks and securities firms, reeling from record losses resulting from the collapse of the mortgage securities market, are failing to acknowledge in their income statements at least $35 billion of additional writedowns included in their balance sheets, regulatory filings show.
May 19th, 2008 at 6:46 am
From CNBC:
Recent Survey Says US Gas Prices Hit Record $3.79
The average retail price of a gallon of regular grade gasoline in the U.S. rose to a new record high as the cost of a barrel of crude oil price continued its ascent, an industry analyst said Sunday.
The U.S. average retail regular gasoline price rose to $3.7929 a gallon on May 16, up nearly 17 cents in the past two weeks, according to the nationwide Lundberg survey of about 7,000 gas stations.
In two areas - Chicago and New York’s Long Island - prices soared to an average of more than $4 a gallon for the first time, survey editor Trilby Lundberg said.
The gasoline price could rise to $4 a gallon on a national average basis, she forecast.
May 19th, 2008 at 6:49 am
Steep drop in home prices may help economy
The bottom should be hit faster, experts say. But the U.S. may have to lean on other sectors for a recovery.
Most economists believe the worst is yet to come.
“I see absolutely no signs of a bottoming, either nationally or in the regions,” said Patrick Newport, who tracks the housing market for Global Insight, an economic forecasting firm in Lexington, Mass.
“Because the prices are going down so fast, we’ll be hitting the stabilization point sooner,” said Lawrence Yun, chief economist at the National Assn. of Realtors.
“We didn’t get here quickly. There were years of excesses. And this won’t be resolved quickly,” Paulson said in remarks at a business luncheon. “Housing is the biggest risk to our economy,” he said.
Over the last year, index prices have fallen 12% to 14%, and Moody’s Chen thinks they have an additional 10% or 12% to go.
“I think we’re about halfway there,” she said.
Yun of the National Assn. of Realtors said prices of existing homes had fallen about 8.5% since their peak in the summer of 2006 and probably had 10% more to go. “Peak to trough, we’ll be looking at 20% or even greater,” he said.
“Do you want a slow bleed?” Lawler asked. “Wouldn’t it be nice to just get it over with? It might be that that’s what we’re seeing.”
Is this different Lawrence Yun or different NAR? Talking about 10% more drop in National Prices?
May 19th, 2008 at 6:52 am
The housing terrorists have destroyed the real estate markets by supporting the credit crunch. Routinely, investors often cash out of properties to invest or spend and it now appears that the banks have reduced the LTV percentages they will work with. I had a friend attempt to get an equity line set up the other day and the damn bank said that it’s working with a 55% LTV on income property. How in the hell can someone borrow anything with that kind of restriction? This is a bunch of BS.
Someone had better do something or this economy is really heading down the crapper. You don’t just take away someone’s damn money like that. I’m absolutely livid at this.
If we let democrats win in the fall, things are going to get worse. They hate business and will do everything they can to prevent people from getting money. Obama has got to be hypnotizing people. He and the liberals can not be allowed to win in the fall. The press is biased towards Obama. All hs has to do is fart and they fall all over themselves fawning over him. He supposedly drew 80,000 fawning liberals to a rally in Oregon yesterday. Why don’t they report on the crowds McCain is drawing? Why do they always showm McCain by himself?
The liberal press is a big problems.
May 19th, 2008 at 6:52 am
SG (26)-
“Because the prices are going down so fast, we’ll be hitting the stabilization point sooner,” said Lawrence Yun, chief economist at the National Assn. of Realtors.
“Because I’ve fallen off such a high cliff, I will hit the ground faster and become a more spectacular puddle of goo,” said famous cartoon character, Wil E. Coyote.
May 19th, 2008 at 6:54 am
N.J. Unemployment Rate up to 5 Percent
TRENTON — In April, New Jersey payrolls increased by 1,000 and the state’s unemployment rate edged higher by 0.2 percentage point to 5.0 percent equaling the United States rate which was down slightly from 5.1 percent in March.
Over the first four months of 2008, employment in New Jersey has followed the national trend, decreasing by 9,900 jobs; whereas nationally employment has declined by 260,000.
May 19th, 2008 at 6:56 am
Tard (27)-
“The housing terrorists have destroyed the real estate markets by supporting the credit crunch.”
What credit crunch? I can take worthless securities to the window and get Treasury notes in return.
If you can turn sh*t into gold, there ain’t no credit crunch.
As long as you’re a bank, that is.
May 19th, 2008 at 6:59 am
If you can turn sh*t into gold, there ain’t no credit crunch.
As long as you’re a bank, that is.
Where’s the investor’s damn money? They’ve cut off our money and that’s not right. It’s my damn money and I have a right to have it.
May 19th, 2008 at 6:59 am
RE: If we let democrats win in the fall, things are going to get worse.
Whoa!!! All RE Bubble and Bust happened on Republican watch my friend. Republicans controlled congress and white house for most of last 8 years. On the contrary, Dems are working hard on bailouts. Without Dem’s proposals, housing would be dead.
May 19th, 2008 at 7:02 am
Liberals, like those who populate this board, worked overtime to upend these housing markets. The coup de grace will come from a democrat controlled executive branch.
May 19th, 2008 at 7:05 am
Tard (31)-
So you want to borrow real money, backed by the imaginary collateral of your declining equity?
Indeed, this is not a privilege, this is a right!
[sarcasm off]
May 19th, 2008 at 7:06 am
All RE Bubble and Bust happened on Republican watch my friend. Republicans controlled congress and white house for most of last 8 years.
Ownership Society?
May 19th, 2008 at 7:07 am
Debtor Society.
May 19th, 2008 at 7:10 am
Lowes reports an 18% drop in profit, same-store sales down 8.4%.
May 19th, 2008 at 7:31 am
“Obama has got to be hypnotizing people.’
50.5,
Why wouldn’t socialists elect an anti-capitalist?
May 19th, 2008 at 7:46 am
Y’all miss me?
May 19th, 2008 at 7:52 am
“Y’all miss me?”
patient,
Where have you been?
May 19th, 2008 at 8:02 am
“Someone had better do something or this economy is really heading down the crapper.”
50.5,
Your President tried and got b*tch slapped by the Saudi’s. What in the world is going on? The most powerful nation in the world, bending over begging to the Saudi’s? A total embarrasment. You wonder why the dollar is in the tank? Why the hell do you make the trip to the Middle East? Why is Bush asking questions if he doesn’t know the answwer? Just a folly to the rest of the world.
May 19th, 2008 at 8:14 am
What have I missed?
Oil at $40?
The last writedown?
Found the WMDs?
Housing hit bottom?
Greenspan’s Mea Culpa?
Capture of Bin Laden?
Minnie Minoso’s comeback?
May 19th, 2008 at 8:16 am
Your President tried and got b*tch slapped by the Saudi’s. What in the world is going on? The most powerful nation in the world, bending over begging to the Saudi’s? A total embarrasment. You wonder why the dollar is in the tank? Why the hell do you make the trip to the Middle East? Why is Bush asking questions if he doesn’t know the answwer? Just a folly to the rest of the world.
That really pissed me off. We have protected the Saudi’s and they refuse to cut us a damn break? It is time to play some hard ball with those jerks. The damn Saudi’s wouldn’t be even getting the oil out of the ground if it wasn’t for us. We are their biggest damn customer and they want to disrepect us?
It may be time to support regime change in Saudia Arabia. We can have people disrespecting us with impunity. There has to be some payback.
May 19th, 2008 at 8:23 am
Not even 830 & re 101 wants to topple the Saudis. Monday is getting off to a good start.
May 19th, 2008 at 8:27 am
Democrat, Republican, blah blah…this isn’t a partisan issue. Both parties want to hurt us in some way.
May 19th, 2008 at 8:32 am
Although I have no particular respect for the House of Saud, they did make a good point the other day — U.S. refineries are at peak capacity and could not refine more oil even if the Saudi’s acted against self interest and raised production even higher.
The problem is the low value of the dollar. When we were an exporting nation, and made nearly everything we needed, one could argue that a low dollar brought benefits. Now when we import so many basic goods, including energy — does everyone here know that the U.S. auto industry, for example, does not make a single wiring harness in this country — the low dollar only hammers families.
May 19th, 2008 at 8:33 am
tbw [45],
I agree.
May 19th, 2008 at 8:41 am
Re 45 - Not to worry, Hank Paulson said the other day he wants a strong dollar.
May 19th, 2008 at 8:44 am
So 50.5 would happily send the army in, guns blazing, for the purpose of regime change in Saudi Arabia, as a result of the Saudis insulting Bush.
Reminds me of Duck Soup, the marx brothers movie, where Mrs. Teasdale asks groucho to meet ambassador Trentino of Sylvania and groucho immediately slaps him in the face proclaiming “this means war!”
May 19th, 2008 at 8:48 am
<iWhere’s the investor’s damn money? They’ve cut off our money and that’s not right. It’s my damn money and I have a right to have it.
He is Grim’s alter ego - He can’t be real with statements like this.
Grim confess - it is you who post as reinvestor101 because nobody is that clueless.
As far as investors credit - thats why out of last 4 bhouses I placed an affer on 3 were either REO or short sales.
How about this: If you are investor, you are liable for balance on your loan no matter what will house sell for, and student loans rules apply - no discharge ever, unless you are dead!!!
May 19th, 2008 at 8:51 am
#12 SG: But I thought we were still debating whether or not we were in a recession. We have been told it was not a recession, but rather a national economic slow down.
So now the recession that was not a recession, is a recession, but it will be over by September?
Well I believe that the recession that was not a recession, but really is a recession is just really getting started..
May 19th, 2008 at 8:52 am
#14 Is Citi even hiring?
May 19th, 2008 at 8:58 am
grim, #5
“special to the record” means a piece that was freelanced - that’s all.
“special” = non-staff
It’s a designation that came into being when newspapers were all union. Not sure if the Record is a union shop.
May 19th, 2008 at 9:00 am
#27 rebailout:You don’t just take away someone’s damn money like that. I’m absolutely livid at this.
That is right you don’t take away our money with tax payer supported bailouts for cry baby homeowners and investors. L
et the housing market continue to fall. Free market capitalism at its best.
May 19th, 2008 at 9:01 am
“He is Grim’s alter ego - He can’t be real with statements like this.”
Agree - he’s a spoof of a moron.
May 19th, 2008 at 9:03 am
“patient, Where have you been?”
Work has been killing me.
May 19th, 2008 at 9:11 am
Tard (42)-
“It may be time to support regime change in Saudia Arabia.”
Please wake me up when you’ve found the opposition underground in Saudi Arabia. Last I heard, opposing their gubmint is a good way to get one’s thumbs lopped off.
May 19th, 2008 at 9:12 am
gefilte Says:
May 18th, 2008 at 9:18 pm
can anyone recommend a professional asbestos inspector (for a residence in clifton)?
g-fish: sorry…they are all dead…
May 19th, 2008 at 9:12 am
Mike (43)-
I thought occupying Iraq was our solution to the Saudi/oil supply “problem”.
May 19th, 2008 at 9:13 am
Credit crunch? Money is cheap now.
May 19th, 2008 at 9:14 am
Patient
I take it you didn’t see the Extreme Home Makeover show in NOLA last night. THey did a church and a home. I’m not keen on the home but they did a beautiful job on the church.
May 19th, 2008 at 9:19 am
It was brought to my attention yesterday and i’ve only started to take a look with very little success today, but Has anyone heard about first time NJ buyers being able to get a grant for up to $12,000 for a down payment or other? We have a down payment but it sure would be nice to add to it or not have to pay the closing costs :)
May 19th, 2008 at 9:19 am
EHM homes seem to be turning into white elephants at a rapid pace. I’m hearing stories of these homes coming up for sale across the country. The reason is almost always the same, taxes and maintenance.
The same happened with the joke-that-is-the HGTV dream home give-away. Most all of these were sold at major discounts due to tax reasons. I believe only 1 or 2 of these actually remained occupied by the winner.
I guess EHM wouldn’t get nearly the ratings if they built modest, affordable homes for people.
May 19th, 2008 at 9:20 am
re 56
Our noble reinvestor throws in his lot with Bin Laden. Strange bedfellows, then again maybe not so strange after all.
May 19th, 2008 at 9:21 am
#27 - 55% LTV? Wow, looks like the banks are finally coming to their senses. How is this the Democrats fault?
May 19th, 2008 at 9:30 am
# 48 “So 50.5 would happily send the army in, guns blazing, for the purpose of regime change in Saudi Arabia, as a result of the Saudis insulting Bush. ”
There is no need for us to topple the Saudi regime; the royal family there has no broad appeal and they have bought themselves peace by supporting its biggest opponents by paying them off. It would surprise very few, if the Wahibbi groups decided the time had come to depose the Saud family.
Just another reason to wean ourselves from the imported oil teat.
May 19th, 2008 at 9:32 am
Clotpoll [from other thread],
I hope the hooligans punched Graydon’s daddy in the teeth and lit the stands on fire. lol!
May 19th, 2008 at 9:33 am
61 Joey
Several banks were offering incentives. I don’t know if they still are. Some will offer grants depending on where you buy- some specific to the point of certain blocks only in certain neighborhoods. There are also income limits. The last ones I remember doing this were Citibank, Chase and BoA. I don’t know who’s offering what now, if anything. If you contact ACORN, they may have more info.
Good luck.
May 19th, 2008 at 9:44 am
Thanks lost. We can only take advantage of being a first time buyer once so if it’s out there we may as well.
May 19th, 2008 at 9:45 am
61…………Yeah the grant is called….”Hey I wanna own a home too! And I want a Pony Fund”….Fill out form D4353245 on the staet of NJ site.
May 19th, 2008 at 9:49 am
Here is an example. You bought your home in 2006 for $500k with 100% financing using an 80/20 loan. So your first mortgage is 80% or $400k and your second mortgage is 20% or $100k. The market is down more than 20% from its peak and your house is now only worth $375k. This means if the house was sold, the first mortgage would take all $375k and the second mortgage would get nothing. In this case the second mortgage is “wholly unsecured” and the second clause of section 1322(b) does not apply, so we can modify the rights of the second mortgage holder and turn it into unsecured debt.
What happens to the now unsecured stripped off second mortgage? It gets paid in your Chapter 13 plan but only after your other secured debts are paid. Secured debts are the first mortgage, your property taxes, and your car payments. And because a Chapter 13 plan lasts only 3-5 years (usually 5) a whole lot of that unsecured debt does not get paid. At the end of 5 years, most unsecured debts (not student loans, back income taxes, or family support payments) are discharged so you don’t have to repay them.
So at the end of 5 years, you are left with just your just mortgage payment on your house. Your cars and your back property taxes are paid off, your student loans and back income taxes are paid down, but your second mortgage and your credit card debt is gone! Beautiful isn’t it? God bless the 80/20! It just keeps on giving.
http://www.sandiegopredatorylending.com/?p=38
Any truth to this?
May 19th, 2008 at 9:58 am
My predictions for 2009
NAR will book REO Speedwagon to play at their annual conference.
We will adjust the border patrol to prevent mexicans from escaping back to mexcico once all their off the book jobs dry up.
Private Equity, Hedge Funds, JP Morgan and Goldman Sachs will go to the Citigroup Garage Sale and buy their assets piece by piece for 40 cents on the dollar. Hey does anyone need a ten story tall Red Umbrella!!
Short Sales will be history. If no one is buying homes what is even the point of doing a short sale. Just foreclose and let RTC bang it out for 40% cents on a dollar.
May 19th, 2008 at 10:01 am
From Yahoo Finance:
No Bottom in Sight: Home Prices to Fall Another 10-15 Percent, Says NYU Prof
Friday’s “stronger-than-expected” home construction data really wasn’t so strong. The bulk of April’s 8.2% rise came from apartments as single-family home construction hit a 17-year low.
In the accompanying video, I attempt to dig a little deeper under the surface of recent chatter about a “bottom” in housing with, Professor Lawrence J. White, deputy chair of the Economics Department at NYU’s Stern School and a former member of the Federal Home Loan Bank Board.
The current downturn is “much more serious” than past housing declines, Smith says, predicting another 10%-15% downside, on average, for national home prices over the next 6-to-12 months before any recover begins.
In other words, the housing market isn’t anywhere close to a bottom yet.
May 19th, 2008 at 10:02 am
From MarketWatch:
Leading indicators rise for 2nd straight month
The U.S. economy is likely to remain weak, but is not in a recession, economists for the Conference Board said Monday after announcing that the index of leading economic indicators rose slightly in April for a second straight month.
The index, which attempts to forecast turning points in the economy, rose 0.1% in April, matching March’s gain after falling for the five prior months.
“These data certainly reflect a weak economy, but not one in recession,” said Ken Goldstein, labor economist at the private research group. The small increases in March and April “could be a signal that the economy may not weaken further.”
The leading index is down at a 2.3% annual pace in the past six months. Four of the 10 leading indicators are stronger over that period.
The coincident index, which measures the current economy, was flat in April and is down at a 0.7% annual rate in the past six months. The coincident index has not risen since October. The four indicators in the coincident index are the same ones used by the National Bureau of Economic Research to judge whether the economy is in a recession.
“Economic activity is likely to remain weak in the near term,” the organization said.
In April, six of the 10 leading indicators increased: Stock prices, interest-rate spread, building permits, jobless claims, vendor performance and consumer-goods orders. Consumer expectations, factory work hours and orders for capital goods fell. The money supply was unchanged.
May 19th, 2008 at 10:07 am
Illegal Immigration solved by housing bust:
We used to hire a cleaning lady who had come from South America and her husband worked in roofing.
Hubby cant find a job anymore and the family is moving back to their home country.
May 19th, 2008 at 10:08 am
61…………Yeah the grant is called….”Hey I wanna own a home too! And I want a Pony Fund”….Fill out form D4353245 on the staet of NJ site.
Didn’t get any search hits on that form number on the state of nj site, but thanks anyway, i’ll keep looking. And i hate ponies.
May 19th, 2008 at 10:12 am
#71 John:Hey does anyone need a ten story tall Red Umbrella!!
The umbrella trademark/logo was sold back to the Travellers Group Insurance Co about a year ago.
May 19th, 2008 at 10:12 am
On who is at fault, dems or republicans.
The “on whose watch” debate is a logical fallacy. You really do yourself a disservice by offering it up. That is like blaming Bush for 9-11 when all evidence demonstrates that his presence at 1600 Penn was irrelevant. It makes you look stupid, and we are stupider for reading it. Just drop the “whose watch” stuff.
People did not make loans or buy houses because of who was president, or what party controlled Congress. To me, more telling is to look at economic factors leading to the run up in prices, and what caused them. Much of it was money looking for a home (no pun intended) after the tech bubble burst. It can literally be that simple. A goodly portion of the run up, IMHO, was due to the Clinton tax rule change exempting most cap gains from the sale of a primary residence. That just took the brakes off of speculative housing, as evidenced by all the late-night ads I saw over the years for property flipping lessons. This is about the only piece of federal legislation that I think had any significant bearing in the housing crisis. Now, anyone here wanna blame Clinton? From a tax policy perspective, some blame could be assigned.
As for regulators, they have been beating the drum about credit quality for many years, but have not had the tools to force banks to eschew certain loan products. I know this because I read the missives and had to reply to them.
Could Congress have acted? I suppose, but they have never been blessed with clairvoyance and blaming them for not acting is almost as idiotic as the “whose watch” argument. Further, what if they did try to impose new restrictions on subprime and exotic loan products, and people started getting denied loans? Folks would have exoriated them for cutting off their access to credit. When Georgia passed legislation on subprime, banks warned that credit in the state would dry up because the rating services would not rate the CDOs with GA loans in them. People went nuts and GA promptly unpassed the law.
If anyone else has something useful to offer on our housing debacle, other than who was in control when the sh1t hit the fan, I would be happy to hear it.
Sorry, I haven’t ranted in a while, and felt the need.
May 19th, 2008 at 10:16 am
To me, the most important about turn is quote from NAR’s Lawrence Yun.
Yun of the National Assn. of Realtors said prices of existing homes had fallen about 8.5% since their peak in the summer of 2006 and probably had 10% more to go. “Peak to trough, we’ll be looking at 20% or even greater,” he said.
I guess he is getting pressure from Realtors that for them volume is important not price.
Can he send out broadcast email to all sellers on Realtor.com that prices will drop 10% this year.
May 19th, 2008 at 10:17 am
Australian dollar hits 24-year high
By Peter Garnham
Monday May 19 2008 05:10
The Australian dollar rose to a 24-year high on Monday as rising commodity prices and a sell-off in the US dollar boosted the currency.
Analysts said growing appetite for risk in the past week had also supported the high-yielding Australian dollar.
This has pushed investors back into carry trades, in which low-yielding currencies such as the yen are sold to finance the purchase of higher-yielding currencies like the Australian dollar.
great the Yen carry trade is done. Got Gold?
May 19th, 2008 at 10:24 am
#77- Nom
Dont you think that Bush pushing for an “Ownership” society led to Greenspan keeping the rates low for an inordinately long amount of time, thus leading to excess liquidity?
May 19th, 2008 at 10:31 am
SG (78)-
“I guess he is getting pressure from Realtors that for them volume is important not price.”
When the repo truck’s hook goes into the S-Class is when Realtors figure out the market’s tanked. This is happening in greater numbers now. We shouldn’t be surprised that the rank-and-file are finally after the mouthpieces to put out a more realistic message.
However, NAR stands strongly behind Barney Frank and his hallucination of a bailout bill, so we’ve far from learned our lesson as an industry.
In fact, we’ve never learned the lesson and never will.
May 19th, 2008 at 10:33 am
Dr. Lawrence Yun - Unplugged - Had Lunch with Bloggers.
Grim - We should invite him for a chat in next GTG.
May 19th, 2008 at 10:33 am
Vic (80)-
Not to butt in on your conversation, but I’d prefer to think that the modern Fed regulates our economy by promotion and manipulation of asset bubbles. This activity has taken the place of meaningful monetary or fiscal policy.
Understanding the Fed these days is no more than an exercise in attempting to predict what asset bubble they will ignite next.
May 19th, 2008 at 10:34 am
So what’s the deal with the new June 1 Fannie Mae low down-payment regulations? Would these mortgages be no-recourse (in New York)?
May 19th, 2008 at 10:38 am
Yun of the National Assn. of Realtors said prices of existing homes had fallen about 8.5% since their peak in the summer of 2006 and probably had 10% more to go. “Peak to trough, we’ll be looking at 20% or even greater,” he said.
See this, kids? Read it closely. Are you reading this sellers?
It’s ok tubby Mary, calm down and have a drink. I know it’s hard but this is what’s called, “entering the acceptance” stage. Here, take this hanky…. everything will be alright.
I know… I know…. no need to explain, you’re only human. But Mary, honestly… a two-headed clown sculpture might be appealing to you but the majority of potential buyers don’t want to see that when they walk in the front door. And besides, you’re frightening the children.
May 19th, 2008 at 10:44 am
Nom [77]
Well said. I will add that those who think that a D executive branch with a D congress is somehow going to right our economic course are completely naive, but more likey thye are just political hacks.
The only hope we have is McCain to win and beat back all of the nonsense spewing from congress via the veto. However, listening to McCain babble on the past few weeks I think thay may still be a boondoogle.
May 19th, 2008 at 10:45 am
Vic-
An intriguing thought, but no, I don’t think that. I saw that as jawboning, pure and simple, and fed minutes don’t support it. There was no substantive legislative changes and it was an empty “initiative.” I doubt much filtered down to the Fed’s rate setting policy, and none filtered down to the regulatory level, near as I can figure. Further, recall that Clinton and Gore did just as much jawboning on that issue.
That said, I don’t dispute the possibility that Greenspan was channeling Arthur Burns, but there were enough other factors supporting Fed decision-making, such that even if it was in the front of Alan’s cranium, it had company and could not have been a causal factor.
Finally, I don’t see liquidity from the Fed as being an issue in the current crisis. The liquidity evaporated at the bank level and the fed has kept the spigots open (smarter minds than me, like NJP or ChiFi can disagree) so I don’t see that as a causal factor. Further, look to the reasons for liquidity and it had little to do with housing. In fact, there was so much liquidity at the bank level, that Citi, among others, was agitating to get rid of the GSEs.
Interesting thought though. Will have to see how history treats it.
May 19th, 2008 at 10:50 am
# 82 I’d like to see LY show up in NJ to meet a group line this someplace at night. He’d have better luck with Paulie Walnuts,Big Pu$sy, and Tony Soprano.
May 19th, 2008 at 10:53 am
#86 gary: Went to look at a house yesterday. Form the pictures it looked OK, althouh too small as it only had 2 bedrooms.
It has an enclosed front porch, form teh angle of th picture it looked to be a decent size, howver, upon seeing it, no bigger than a foyer.
The other half of the porch was converted into a first floor bathroon, however that bathroom was now in the living room. How delightful.
However the realtor, said and I quote the price is negogiatable, especially in this market.
It was refreshing to hear a realtor admit that things had changed, especially in my blue ribbon prestigious Bergen Co town.
May 19th, 2008 at 10:55 am
It has an enclosed front porch, form teh angle of th picture it looked to be a decent size, howver, upon seeing it, no bigger than a foyer.
Is it me or are realtors now a days REALLY rockin’ the fish eye lense?
May 19th, 2008 at 10:56 am
Hiring Freeze in place at Goldman.
May 19th, 2008 at 10:57 am
#84 clot: 2 questions please. The new Fannie MAe down pymts that go into effect in June, have they lowered the credit score requiremetns too?
Do you think these new guideliens are going to make a difference one way or another?
May 19th, 2008 at 10:57 am
3b,
When the realtor told you that the price was negotiable, you should’ve put on a real big naive face and played it up. :)
“Wow, Mr. Realtor, perhaps they’ll accept $5,000 under asking?”
May 19th, 2008 at 10:58 am
# 92 Publicly announced?
May 19th, 2008 at 11:02 am
# 89 “a group LIKE this one”
May 19th, 2008 at 11:02 am
clot
“We shouldn’t be surprised that the rank-and-file are finally after the mouthpieces to put out a more realistic message.”
I would think it would be difficult for Joe Realtor to get a client to price appropriately when the NAR is telling Jane Seller that the market is just fine. The NAR was busy trying to fool the buyers, but instead they fooled the sellers.
May 19th, 2008 at 11:03 am
rich in NNJ or grim,
is 240 paramus rd ridgewood still UC?
and, grim or clot,
close price for 53 pleasant run readington?
just curious.
BTW, had fun at work printing out Schiller’s HPI graph from 1890 til now and then the one from the 80’s til now. Alot of lightbulbs flickering on at that point but,
still got puzzled looks when I started in on CDOs and SIVs and MBSs….oh well.
sl
May 19th, 2008 at 11:04 am
[87] JBJB,
I think that there is enough blame to go around, esp. when both parties are pandering to the same set of voters.
If Barney can sell this as a costless measure to get banks to absorb the loss themselves, it will coast. Of course, the gov also said the Iraq war would finance itself from oil flow . . .
May 19th, 2008 at 11:04 am
#94 gary: Once I actually saw the hosue, I knew it would not meet my needs. And since he had the decency to admit that the party was over, there was no need to be confrontational with him.
However, if he had pulled the rah-rah cheerleading nonsense, I might have called him on it; especially since my wife was not there.
She does not let me get confrontational with Realtors, and she is probably right. What good does it do?
Her perfered method is to nod politely and say REALLY in an incredibly sarcastic tone. She has perfected this method.
It is really effective, by saying so little she appears to say so much.
May 19th, 2008 at 11:06 am
I’m looking for some housing suggestions here.
My wife and I have been renting in Westfield for
a few years now, and she finally gave up all hope of ever owning there. It’s too expensive and too crowded. I work in Newark, so the commute was nice though.
Any thoughts on towns a little further out that might provide more value? I was looking into Bridgewater, but I have no opinion yet. How is the morning drive down 78? How is it for family life? How about other towns in that area?
We’re at the end of the housing rope now, and the fallback is Yardley, PA. Long commute, good lifestyle….
May 19th, 2008 at 11:09 am
sl,
53 Pleasant closed at $899k
May 19th, 2008 at 11:10 am
Where do I find how much someone owes on a mortgage?
May 19th, 2008 at 11:11 am
thx grim!
sl
May 19th, 2008 at 11:11 am
JBJB/Nom/victorian/etc
If I were looking for things to blame on politicians that have gone wrong over the course of the preceding decade, the RE bubble would be way down on my list.
I hate Alan Greenspan, and I resent the fact that the housing bubble occurred, but it wouldn’t even make my Top Ten list of politician-caused crap during the preceding decade.
May 19th, 2008 at 11:16 am
PA to Newark? Ugh. Too crazy. I do Hunterdon to Bridgewater. That sucks enough.
May 19th, 2008 at 11:19 am
101 Daddyo:
Bridgewater is built up, but has outliers of niceness.
Gets clogged traffic-wise.
I have my business here because it’s busy; I wouldn’t live here though. But then again, I don’t see my neighbors houses, and I like that. You may be different.
May 19th, 2008 at 11:19 am
@101 (daddyo)
Try Nutley or Lyndhurst.
May 19th, 2008 at 11:20 am
Repost from last night. I’m still curious, and it seems topical, given the headline:
Can someone with GSMLS access please give me the street address of MLS#2517313? It’s bank owned in prestigious Glen Ridge.
Many thanks.
May 19th, 2008 at 11:20 am
Middletown and take the train up to Newark Penn?
May 19th, 2008 at 11:21 am
Gator,
2517313 - 233 Baldwin
May 19th, 2008 at 11:22 am
I’ve got a prior sale at $605k in July of 2005.
May 19th, 2008 at 11:24 am
#98 Still looking
If you want fun with numbers and are interested in Ridgewood, have fun here.
http://www.ridgewoodnj.net/subdept_detail.cfm?sub_dept_id=74&dept_id=2
May 19th, 2008 at 11:25 am
sl,
240 is *still* UC..
May 19th, 2008 at 11:25 am
Last post b4 I go:
A recap of how realtors play the “aversion to loss game”…
I drove by some commercial properties. The ones I was interested in, I made appts to see.
One I looked at was empty. During our drive-by, we parked, and peeked inside. (empty warehouse)… alarm had been beeping offline, not an alarm going off, but an error saying it was offline.
A WEEK LATER, we meet with agents and go in (again :) Listing agent tells us bldg is really popular, tons of people looking at it in the past week… babbling on like this as he opens the door, looks at the alarm keypad with a quick puzzled look and then SHUTS IT OFF.
Silenced for the 1st time in AT LEAST a week.
Really.
May 19th, 2008 at 11:32 am
#108 - We ruled out the Montclair’ish area as too crowded, we tend to need at least a little bit of space.
And grim, I’m not sure we can do the shore, but I could broach the topic with her.
May 19th, 2008 at 11:38 am
Where do I find how much someone owes on a mortgage?
Public records will only provide the initial mortgage amount. You can use an amortization calculator to attempt to determine the current balance, but that assumes no prepayments, etc. The only place that number would be published would be on the notice to sell (Sheriff Sale) as the judgement amount.
May 19th, 2008 at 11:39 am
24 grim
“Banks and securities firms, reeling from record losses resulting from the collapse of the mortgage securities market, are failing to acknowledge in their income statements at least $35 billion of additional writedowns ”
That CAN’T be true!!! bi and S&P said there would be no more writedowns!!! bi, tell ‘em it isn’t true!
bi?
bi???
May 19th, 2008 at 11:39 am
HI
I saw in the realitytrack a house bank owned in west orange that I am interested in buying
I would like to contact a realter expert in buyng REOS or someone with knowledge to help me
Any reccomnedations?
May 19th, 2008 at 11:40 am
Thanks, Grim. Now listed at $483,900. Ouch. I thought it couldn’t happen here.
May 19th, 2008 at 11:48 am
@daddyo
Unless you’re willing to accept a grueling commute to Newark each day, finding a fair amount of space at a reasonable price is going to be difficult.
If you’re willing to take the train, then perhaps consider Denville, Stanhope, Ledgewood, Mt. Olive, Mine Hill, Kenvil, etc. Just a short drive from the Dover train station.
May 19th, 2008 at 11:49 am
HI
I saw in the realitytrack a house bank owned in west orange that I am interested in buying
I would like to contact a realter expert in buyng REOS or someone with knowledge to help me
Any reccomnedations?
I was considering West Orange until i saw the taxes. $300,000 house but it’s taxes were $12,000!!
May 19th, 2008 at 11:55 am
grim,
which public record source is best to find initial mortgage amount?
May 19th, 2008 at 11:56 am
What county?
May 19th, 2008 at 11:56 am
Gator essex is reo trouble territory, the obscene taxes make banks very eager to get rid of the property. Be wary of the taxes 10-12k on a 400k home is insane.
May 19th, 2008 at 12:01 pm
jcer,
I’m not kidding, nearly EVERY house i saw in the $300-325,000 range was AT LEAST 10-12K, nuts…
May 19th, 2008 at 12:03 pm
I am looking for initial loans in Bergen. I have used the taxrecords site and sometimes houses dont even come up with latest sold info.
I typically use the njactb monmouth county record searcher when looking for comps no matter what countly I am looking in.
I would also be interested in Union and Essex too.
May 19th, 2008 at 12:05 pm
Why do you think WO inventory is so high?
West Orange Active Listings - GSMLS
April 2005 - 263
April 2006 - 307
April 2007 - 407
April 2008 - 447
May 19th, 2008 at 12:05 pm
I know that the taxes are very high, but my other option is Livingston NJ, taxes are much lower but the houses average 170k, or 200k more expensives.
And b/c of the high taxes,maybe we can get a better price
Any reccomenndations, I need a expert realtor in REOS, or someone with knowleadge
May 19th, 2008 at 12:05 pm
On the affluent North Shore in Nassau, from Kings Point to Laurel Hollow, north of the Long Island Expressway and Route 25, buyers in the first quarter, on average, paid 13.4 percent less than sellers’ last asking prices, nearly four percentage points higher than in the same quarter last year, according to a report by Miller Samuel, a Manhattan appraisal firm, for Prudential Douglas Elliman. The number of homes sold there fell by 14 percent compared with the first quarter of 2007.
May 19th, 2008 at 12:06 pm
125 jcer - Not interested in the property, just curious. It looks like it has a bad location abutting the tracks of the defunct Boonton Line.
It was just assessed at 557,600 in the recent reval, where the town had been underassessing almost every property. My guess is that the assessors couldn’t inspect because it was bank owned. The house next door sold for 635k in July 2006, yet was only assessed at 475,900.
Taxes are currently over 12k and will be going UP due to the high assessment.
I wonder what the bank will eventually get for it?
May 19th, 2008 at 12:07 pm
shuck,
Check your email.
May 19th, 2008 at 12:11 pm
http://www.cemeteryspot.com/blog/?p=174&ref=patrick.net
Now this is a RE Blog for long term RE investors.
May 19th, 2008 at 12:11 pm
128 Grim - People trying to bail out/cash out before the collapse? The market in WO went up quite a bit, when folks who were priced out of Montclair/Millburn/South Orange bought there instead.
I also think they are due sometime soon for a property tax revaluation.
May 19th, 2008 at 12:12 pm
# 117 “Public records will only provide the initial mortgage amount. You can use an amortization calculator to attempt to determine the current balance, but that assumes no prepayments, etc. The only place that number would be published would be on the notice to sell (Sheriff Sale) as the judgement amount.”
The other way to find out the outstanding mortgage amount is to get a credit report on the owner. This can take some doing, but can be done.
May 19th, 2008 at 12:13 pm
thx again, grim
sl
May 19th, 2008 at 12:14 pm
Interesting:
The Top of the Class
Public schools are ranked according to a ratio devised by Jay Mathews: the number of Advanced Placement, Intl. Baccalaureate and/or Cambridge tests taken by all students at a school in 2007 divided by the number of graduating seniors. All of the schools on the list have an index of at least 1.000; they are in the top 5 percent of public schools measured this way.
NJ has 1 school in the top 100…, and 3 more in 100-200…
http://www.newsweek.com/id/39380
May 19th, 2008 at 12:15 pm
I love the VERY SOLID LIQUIDITY statement.
Lennar Corp., the largest homebuilder in the U.S., lost another notch on its corporate rating from Standard & Poor’s after losing investment-grade status in November. The new BB rating affects $2.2 billion in unsecured notes.
S&P said Miami-based Lennar has “very solid liquidity” although there is “limited clarity with regard to the timing of a cyclical trough.”
To contact the reporter on this story: Bill Rochelle in New York at
May 19th, 2008 at 12:16 pm
PGC (113),
That’s a great link. It allows those without MLS access to a quick comp by school district (which seems to be buzz word in this town).
May 19th, 2008 at 12:17 pm
# 122
Ouch! If anyone saw the 60 Minutes segment on Bon Jovi, it showed his house. I know the property and it, and the associated “farm” has a total tax bill of about $30,600. I doubt the house you were looking at came close to being 40% the house of his.
Too many towns in NJ have taxes that are just out of wack.
May 19th, 2008 at 12:18 pm
Long Island has 5 in the top 67, wait a minute, Long Island is not a state so how did it beat all of NJ.
May 19th, 2008 at 12:21 pm
Looked at a house in Wayne yesterday. Asking price was 550K and taxes were 15K. Something has to give.
May 19th, 2008 at 12:26 pm
# 142 The whole asking price to current tax issue is something that bugs me. I love when I see a house where the asking price is “X” and the taxes are “Y” but the assessed value (in a full valuation town” is 1/3X or 1/2X. As soon as the house sells for anything above the current assessed value, the taxes are going to rise. Thee should be some requirement to report estimate of new taxes based on asking price and millage for the town.
May 19th, 2008 at 12:32 pm
Not true, Shore Guy (143). The town cannot change the assessment until the town undergoes a revaluation, or if permits are filed for renovations.
We bought our house in 2004 for $480k. It was assessed for $208k. Our assessment didn’t change until last year, when our town was ordered to undergo a revaluation.
Now on the other hand, if your house was assessed for more than your purchase price, you’d be smart to do some legwork and file a
tax appeal in order to lower your assessment and taxes.
Most towns go many years between reassessments/revaluations. The state monitors sales price to assessment ratios to determine averages and towns are ordered to revalue property if the large deviations from the commone level ratio are seen.
May 19th, 2008 at 12:42 pm
Interesting enough in Nassau County Long Island they do an annual assessment and what you paid for your house counts very little. They do it all based on comps. If you overpaid it can be assessed for less and if you underpaid it can be assessed for more.
May 19th, 2008 at 12:44 pm
144/5 In a perverse sort of way, I suppose that is good.
May 19th, 2008 at 12:47 pm
NJGator is correct my parents house was assessed at 380k from 89 when they bought it till 2004 when it was reassessed to 1.1 million, the towns cannot reassess unless they reassess the whole town. In Essex though the tendency is not to reassess but raise the tax rate.
I concur that that house in glen ridge has a terrible location. Close to the train and the seedy parts of Montclair and Bloomfield.
I think the bank will be sucking wind on that one dependent on condition I would think 399k. Taxes in glen ridge are tough, in WO though I think if and when they reval and if that Edison Village project takes off taxes will go down some. I mean how could a town that has diversified ratables(unlike glen ridge, only residential) and not have super excellent schools or any other justifiable expenses have taxes so much higher than neighboring Essex towns.
May 19th, 2008 at 12:48 pm
I hate NJ.
May 19th, 2008 at 12:55 pm
147 jcer - I suspect that folks in neighborhhods like Upper Gregory that saw big price appreciations during the bubble are in for a nasty surprise. Hopefully the market collapses enough before their reval (2 years from now) to lessen any potential increases.
May 19th, 2008 at 12:55 pm
Would someone recommend a similar blog for monitoring real estate in Florida; and, if specifics matter, Miami-Ft. Lauderdale area? Thank you.
May 19th, 2008 at 1:02 pm
Grim
Thank you for the email
May 19th, 2008 at 1:04 pm
shuck,
Just keep in mind that RealtyTrac data has a tendency to be stale.
May 19th, 2008 at 1:05 pm
Not to mention that you can the same data for free (and faster), if you take the time to do it yourself.
May 19th, 2008 at 1:06 pm
Spring has sprung and it’s a great time to buy in the Pascack Valley and Bergen County area. Buyers beware - don’t wait until the market returns to a Seller’s market.
Buyers who are waiting for the return to a Seller’s Market may be surprised to find they missed the boat.
The above is from a realtor’s web site can some one (gary your help is always appreciated on these things, as I know you speak fluent realtorese),translate this portion for me:
Buyers who are waiting for the return to a Seller’s Market may be surprised to find they missed the boat.
May 19th, 2008 at 1:08 pm
From the Star Ledger:
Lawmakers use $260 million in budget for unemployment fund deficit
State lawmakers this morning advanced legislation that would head off a business tax increase by steering at least $260 million into the account that covers unemployment checks for laid off workers.
The bill won unanimous approval today from the Senate Budget and Appropriations Committee. It would use $260 million in surplus funds from the current state budget to shore up the state’s Unemployment Insurance Trust Fund.
Employers and workers pay for the trust fund through a payroll deduction. Last month, battered by rising unemployment claims and the effects of a string of state budget diversions, the fund’s balance dropped to about $161 milllion — about enough to cover benefits for four weeks.
Without the legislation and bailout, state law would require an automatic $350 million increase on July 1 in the tax businesses pay into the fund.
“In these tough economic times this is a good bill, not to add taxes on our employers,” said Sen. Paul Sarlo (D-Bergen).
Lawmakers acknowledged the $260 million proposed for the bailout may not be enough to offset rising claims against the fund.
May 19th, 2008 at 1:27 pm
patient (97)-
Getting a client to price right is tied directly to the agent’s willingness to walk away from the listing.
May 19th, 2008 at 1:28 pm
sl (98)-
$899,000.
May 19th, 2008 at 1:28 pm
GTG
May 19th, 2008 at 1:30 pm
<I/injpatient Says:
May 19th, 2008 at 9:01 am
“He is Grim’s alter ego - He can’t be real with statements like this.”
Agree - he’s a spoof of a moron.
For the umpteenth damn time, I am very real. There are no ghosts typing my posts and I am NOT Grim. For the umpteenth damn time, I am here to ensure that there’s some balance to the rampant liberalism and “chicken little sky is falling” type of talk that is frequently distilled here.
You on the other hand, appear to be a damn lawyer; a profession that has added a lot of costs to what I do and to the economy in general. Liberal lawyers present a deadly threat to the American body politic and to the economy.
May 19th, 2008 at 1:34 pm
Sir,
From reading your posts, it seems it is you who have taken the “chicken little sky is falling” stance.
I believe many here are quite happy with the process of a free market correcting itself by the downward movement in prices.
May 19th, 2008 at 1:39 pm
I got my economic stimulus check over the weekend. I don’t plan on spending it on anything, it’s merely taking back what I’ve already given to the govt.
If anything, it’ll come in handy in December when baby #2 is born.
-Richie
May 19th, 2008 at 1:41 pm
3b Says:
May 19th, 2008 at 9:00 am
That is right you don’t take away our money with tax payer supported bailouts for cry baby homeowners and investors. Let the housing market continue to fall. Free market capitalism at its best.
No one is taking your money. Stop bellyaching. What I want to know is when you will stop being so damn cheap. I’ve never seen a bank being pulled behind a hearse, so you can allow yourself to begin buying what other people consider to be necessities (and what you consider to be luxuries). Stop squeezing the damn Charmin and try buying some. Corn production is tight enough with demands of ethanol. We don’t need additional demands on production because you refuse to buy Charmin while squeezing every penny until it screams.
May 19th, 2008 at 1:41 pm
#159 rehandout: Get over yourself creampuff.
May 19th, 2008 at 1:41 pm
From Bloomberg:
Bush Stresses He Won’t Back Bill to `Bail Out’ Housing Lenders
President George W. Bush reinforced his opposition to legislation pending in Congress that aims to help struggling borrowers avoid foreclosure.
“Our policy in this administration is laws shouldn’t bail out lenders, laws shouldn’t help speculators,” Bush said after receiving a briefing on the housing and credit markets from Treasury Secretary Henry Paulson.
“The government ought to be helping creditworthy people stay in their homes,” Bush said.
The Democratic-controlled Congress is at odds with Republicans and the White House over plans to reduce foreclosures in the worst housing slump in 25 years.
…
Both Bush and Paulson have opposed the House bill. Bush says it would reward irresponsible lenders and borrowers at taxpayer expense.
May 19th, 2008 at 1:43 pm
3b (93)-
To answer your question, I went straight to my Wachovia account executive.
According to her response, the following changes now apply to Desktop Underwriter 7.0 and the new uniform Fannie DP rules:
1. No benefit given for MI.
2. Debt-to-income (DTI) cap is being reduced.
3. Neg Am ARMs are out of scope.
4. Collection accounts will play a larger role in qualification decisions.
5. Loans with excessive DTI are no longer in play.
6. No MI insurer will touch a loan with DTI over 50%.
7. Borrowers with foreclosure due to mismanagement will require 5 years of re-established credit; 3 years with documented extenuating circumstances.
8. Borrowers with deed-in-lieu require 3 years’ established credit. Pre-foreclosure or short sale require 2 years.
9. Any borrower with a prior foreclosure will need anywhere between 10-20% additional down payment.
I’d say the credit requirements are tighter.
I’d also say the new Fannie DP rules will have little-to-no effect on the market in general.
May 19th, 2008 at 1:44 pm
#162rebuttwipe: Give it a rest with the toliet tissue. Is this all you got?. Seriously if it is an attempt to be humorous, the attempt is sorely lacking.
House prices are falling, get over it. Stop looking for handouts, welfare for underater homeowners/investors like yourself.
May 19th, 2008 at 1:44 pm
A good read:
Debt, Dilution, Default and Denial
http://www.minyanville.com/articles/MER-lehman-buffett-C-citigroup-merrill/index/a/17212
May 19th, 2008 at 1:46 pm
#165 Clot: Well that does not sound like it will help stop the drop in prices.
Looks to me like it will only cause an acceleration in the price drops.
May 19th, 2008 at 2:03 pm
3b [154],
Yes, I can interpret that phrase. It means “I didn’t really read what was written as my only priority is bilking another idiot for a cut at the commission and it was oh so easy a few years ago when fools were a plenty and all I had to do was list the house and the money rolled in.”
That’s what it means.
May 19th, 2008 at 2:06 pm
#169 gary: Thank you. Your mastery of that foreign and compelx language is extraordinary.
May 19th, 2008 at 2:08 pm
Anectdotal story:
I was talking to a friend who is looking to buy his first condo/coop in Brooklyn. He was looking to carry a mortgage of approx. 600k. So he squarely sits in the “old” jumbo mortgage category and would fall in the new “conforming” category for this region. He told me the rate he is prequal with a under 6% interest rate. So it seems that people are being prequalified for the new conforming standards. I remember previously reading posts that people are not.
May 19th, 2008 at 2:08 pm
3b,
Why, thank you. And by the way, did you know that my dog can smell a realtor 3 blocks away?
May 19th, 2008 at 2:10 pm
162 repossessed101
“You on the other hand, appear to be a damn lawyer; a profession that has added a lot of costs to what I do and to the economy in general.”
Not to mention we put Bush in office. You’re welcome!!
May 19th, 2008 at 2:13 pm
#172 Bullsh!t Hound?
May 19th, 2008 at 2:13 pm
Re101 read 164. Does that blow your mind?
May 19th, 2008 at 2:15 pm
“The Democratic-controlled Congress is at odds with Republicans and the White House over plans to reduce foreclosures in the worst housing slump in 25 years.
…
Both Bush and Paulson have opposed the House bill. Bush says it would reward irresponsible lenders and borrowers at taxpayer expense”
reinvestor101 - any thoughts on this? Barney Frank and co. are valiantly and patriotically trying to rescue the American Housing Patriots and George Bush and co. are evildoers who are housing terrorists for stopping them?
How would you characterize this?
May 19th, 2008 at 2:19 pm
#176 njpatient: Yes and Barney Frank is of course a Liberal. And yet it is a Liberal who is the standard bearer for recrybaby’s handout.
May 19th, 2008 at 2:20 pm
#176 njpatient:How would you characterize this?
Oh and I would like to add, now you are asking recrybaby to think. And that is going to be very problematic.
May 19th, 2008 at 2:21 pm
I’ve got a question - will high rents put a floor under home prices in this area???
How would you price a house if there was no comps sold in the town within last 6 month?
And iof there was 8 sales closed this year, and 18 undr contract right now - while there are 125 homes listed for sale?? I went the only way I can come up with - based on equivalent rents in the area.
Couple of short sales right now listed at 2004 (0% appreciation) prices, and it is the same to rent as it is to buy them at these prices (Granted, with 10% downpayment).
May 19th, 2008 at 2:22 pm
last question - if house liasted for 300K as short sale, and say all offers are subject to bank approval - does this mean that bank will approve 300K??
Is it normal for seller to pre-negotiate the price or did he just pick a random number to get people interested?
May 19th, 2008 at 2:22 pm
#172 gary:that my dog can smell a realtor 3 blocks away?
Does he bite them?
May 19th, 2008 at 2:31 pm
if house liasted for 300K as short sale, and say all offers are subject to bank approval - does this mean that bank will approve 300K??
No
May 19th, 2008 at 2:32 pm
3b,
No, he has no teeth.
May 19th, 2008 at 2:32 pm
Tard (159)
What’s with the anger against lawyers? No law school wanted you? Too difficult to fill in the little circle with a pencil on the LSAT?
May 19th, 2008 at 2:35 pm
Ridgewood
SOLD 341 E GLEN AVE $655,000 10/30/2007
2820495
ACTIVE 341 E GLEN AVE $629,000 5/19/2008
May 19th, 2008 at 2:37 pm
grim 174,
yes!
May 19th, 2008 at 2:37 pm
Delanco, NJ…. Effective Monday May 19th 2008 Jevic Transportation, Inc, a less-than-truckload transportation services provider, is discontinuing operations. They are headquartered in Delanco, NJ.
Although the company will not be making pick-ups, a company spokesperson has said they are running a delivery operation until all freight “in our system is delivered”.
“We owe that to the many loyal customers who have been the backbone of Jevic over the last 27 years,” says Pete Robinson, director of marketing and corporate communications. “Our customers were what drove us and made Jevic the market innovator in frei