Thu 22 May 2008
From the Press of Atlantic City:
Real estate agents debate local statistics
The latest positive numbers for home sales and prices have divided real estate agents, ordinarily a group uniformly upbeat about the housing market.
Some doubt the numbers, even though they’re from their own association, and say it’s making it tougher to get home sellers to reduce their prices to more realistic levels.
Kevin Dawe, a real estate agent with Balsley Losco Real Estate in Northfield, said last week’s report that the median home price in the Atlantic City area rose 4.8 percent in the first quarter didn’t match what he’s been seeing.
In particular, Dawe said the figures from the National Association of Realtors, and other information gathered from state and local Realtor groups, seemed to disagree with what the Multiple Listing Service showed.
“As we talk to our sellers about the declining market we are actually facing and the fact that they have to be aggressive in pricing their homes if they expect to find a buyer, the statistics in your article are baffling and impact our credibility with customers,” Dawe said.
…
Bruce E. Breunig Jr., broker at Century 21 Alliance in Margate, admitted that “we Realtors remain part of the problem. We blame the media for fueling the downturn and try to counterbalance it with our own positive spin.”Breunig had a theory as to why the NAR survey shows rising prices locally that real estate agents aren’t seeing.
The Realtor survey tracks median home prices, the price at which half of all sales were for more, half for less.
The subprime mortgage crisis and subsequent credit crunch have made it far more difficult for low-end buyers to get a mortgage, he said, which has reduced the number of low-end sales. The homes that sell are then disproportionately from the upper half of the market, artificially raising the median price.
May 22nd, 2008 at 6:05 am
From the ABC 6:
Summer shore homes targeted by thieves
Authorities at the Jersey shore say they’re seeing a spike in thefts of copper and other metals, right from people’s homes. The metal bandits have been having a field day during winter and spring, since few people live at the Shore during the off season.
When Robert Bell, of Langhore, Bucks County began getting his Ocean City condo ready for Memorial Day, he discovered the copper pipes at his outdoor showers had been pilfered. And the copper crooks knew exactly what they were doing.
“They just took it right out,” said Bell, “cut the clamps with some kind of clipper. They didn’t just come down here to try to pull it by hand. They had tools with them.”
Bell has now replaced his missing copper pipes with plastic ones. Authorities say Bell is one of at least 10 victims in Ocean City alone. There are many more cases reporter in Atlantic and Cape May counties.
May 22nd, 2008 at 6:06 am
From the APP:
Get Asbury work on the fast track
The redevelopers of the Asbury Park oceanfront are getting antsy.
They have sped up the clock on the renovations to the boardwalk pavilions and the restorations to Convention Hall and Paramount Theater.
But they are disappointed they will miss their Memorial Day target date for completion of three of the pavilions, which will house 40 retail tenants.
And they believe city officials could do more to accommodate their tight timetable.
May 22nd, 2008 at 6:09 am
From the WSJ:
UBS Rights Issue Priced at Discount
By KATHARINA BART
May 22, 2008 2:18 a.m.
ZURICH — UBS AG Thursday set the terms for its 15.97 billion Swiss francs ($15.50 billion) capital increase at a steep discount to the current share price, reflecting that the Zurich-based bank remains a tough sell to investors because of its subprime-debt holdings.
Switzerland’s UBS said it will sell new shares at 21 francs a share, 31% lower than the stock’s 30.64 franc closing price Wednesday. Shareholders will receive one subscription right per share held, with 20 of the rights entitling the holder to buy seven new shares.
May 22nd, 2008 at 6:11 am
From the AP:
Senate to consider adding money to state jobless fund
The Senate is poised to act Thursday to avoid a tax increase on employers — at least for now — by pumping $260 million into the state fund that pays benefits to out-of-work New Jerseyans.
Democratic and Republican legislators and governors have diverted $4.7 billion from the fund over the last 14 years to help hospitals pay for treating the uninsured. As a result, the fund is close to falling below the level that would trigger an automatic $350 million increase in employer payroll taxes as of July 1.
The money was diverted before Democratic Gov. Jon S. Corzine took office in January 2006, and Corzine proposed putting in the $260 million in surplus money to avoid a tax increase.
…
The fund has currently $977.3 million.
Legislative staff estimate the cash infusion proposed by Corzine would put the balance at $1.05 billion by March 31, 2009, again leaving it close to the threshold for the tax increase. So depending on factors such as economic conditions and new unemployment filings, an employer tax increase could be triggered starting July 1, 2009.
May 22nd, 2008 at 6:12 am
From the Star Ledger:
TrimSpa distributor files for bankruptcy protection
The distributor of diet supplement TrimSpa, promoted by Anna Nicole Smith before her death last year, filed for bankruptcy protection today.
Goen Technologies, which had been based in Whippany but listed an East Hanover address in court filings, said it had $1.4 million in assets but $30 million in debts. Among the largest unsecured creditors are Fox Cable Networks, owed $3.4 million, and E! Entertainment Television, owed $477,063.
May 22nd, 2008 at 6:13 am
From the Philly Inquirer:
Jevic closure raises layoff-notice concerns
This week’s shutdown of Jevic Transportation Inc., which put more than 1,000 employees out of work on less than a day’s notice, is raising questions over whether the company violated a New Jersey layoff-notification law.
Employment-law experts and a state senator pointed to a recently passed state law known informally as the New Jersey WARN Act, which requires firms to inform employees and the state government 60 days in advance of a mass layoff.
May 22nd, 2008 at 6:14 am
From Bloomberg:
Oil Rises Above $135 After Unexpected Drop in U.S. Inventories
Crude oil rose to a record above $135 a barrel in New York after U.S. stockpiles unexpectedly dropped and traders closed losing trades on bets that prices would fall.
May 22nd, 2008 at 6:15 am
From the Star Ledger:
Proposed building permit extensions have green activists seeing red
A legislative proposal that would extend for six years the life of building permits for stalled commercial and residential development projects has been introduced in the Assembly, and environmentalists are fuming.
…
Called the Permit Extension Act, the proposal would extend for six years all permits and approvals given developers — even those that have expired — by the state and or local governments. It would enable projects permitted in past years but stalled for financial reasons to avoid having to comply with subsequent changes in environmental law, public health standards, building codes, or local zoning.
“This is part of an economic stimulus package,” Greenwald said yesterday. “We want to be more competitive with neighboring states like Massachusetts and Pennsylvania, where business is going to. This is no different than other permit extensions in the past when we faced similar recessions. It is designed to help stimulate the economy and vital to the financial recovery from the doldrums we are currently in.”
Greenwald said the bill is the result of meetings with business leaders and developers, who complained to legislators the permitting process is one reason business and builders are leaving New Jersey. He said requiring builders to face a new round of permitting could cost them millions of dollars.
Environmentalists don’t see it that way.
May 22nd, 2008 at 6:22 am
From Bloomberg:
Cerberus Rues ResCap as Mortgages Put Brakes on Plans
Cerberus Capital Management LP’s $7.4 billion purchase of General Motors Corp.’s finance arm in 2006 also won control of a mortgage unit supplying a steady stream of cash to finance the auto lender. Then the home-loan money disappeared in a flood of subprime losses.
Now the GMAC LLC unit, Residential Capital LLC, is fighting to avoid bankruptcy. ResCap has been forced to stop making loans to borrowers with poor credit histories after losses of $5.3 billion during the past six quarters.
ResCap’s problems have sucked time and money from what has become a $15 billion bet on selling cars and providing loans to the buyers. A year after it bought the 51 percent GMAC stake, New York-based Cerberus paid $7.4 billion for Chrysler LLC, including the carmaker’s profitable auto-loan and leasing unit. Cerberus founder Stephen Feinberg now has to decide whether to inject more money into ResCap or let it die.
“At the time the deal was done, ResCap was the good part,” said Tom Flaherty, a Philadelphia money manager at Aberdeen Asset Management Plc, which oversees more than $30 billion. His team owned ResCap bonds and sold them before they were cut to below investment grade. “They’re in an unexpected mess.”
May 22nd, 2008 at 7:18 am
“Some doubt the numbers, even though they’re from their own association, and say it’s making it tougher to get home sellers to reduce their prices to more realistic levels.”
The thing we should expect to start seeing now are more and more RE offices closing. Cendant, another LBO superstar, is bleeding out…so there go ERA, Coldwell Banker and Century 21. Two Re/Max offices near me have either sold or gone out of business. I’m pretty sure at least five more are on the ropes (if they all go out of business, I welcome it…Re/Max oversold franchises in NJ during the boom years).
A big hope for the RE market’s recovery hinges upon the number of agents being slashed to a point where only the competent can survive. On that front, we have a ways to go.
May 22nd, 2008 at 7:24 am
Grim - regarding your original posting - A front page article in the Fresno Bee yesterday - Sanford Nax - says “April sales of existing homes in Fresno County edged up 2% from last year.”
The figures were provided by DataQuick Information Systems out of La Jolla, California.
“Similar trends are being seen around the state: While home prices are down dramatically, sales numbers are up. Sales in Kern, Merced, San Joaquin (Stockton) and Stanislaus counties also experienced year-over-year increases.”
“Statewide, sales climbed 27% from March to April with more than one-third being foreclosed properties.”
“DataQuick analyst Andrew LePage said the sales were greatest in regions where home prices have fallen the most, such as the Central Valley. These are the places where the houses are more affordable. In Fresno County, the percentage of households that can afford an entry-level home climbed to 56% in March, up from 44% a year previously, the California Association of Realtors reported Tuesday.”
“Only the high desert region of Southern California and Merced County - where existing home sales doubled and the median price tumbled 39% in a year - had higher affordability rates.”
“Even if this is the beginning of a rebound, prices aren’t likely to rise soon. About 3,800 houses are for sale in Fresno and Clovis and more than 400 foreclosures are coming on the market each month, keeping the pressure on sellers to offer discounts.”
“The median resale price of an existing house in Fresno County last month was $220,000, a drop of 18.5% from April 2007 and 4% from the previous month, according to DataQuick.”
The article goes on to say that “real estate agents say the price decreases appear to be leveling off. From January to April, the median price in the cities of Fresno and Clovis fell from $241,000 to $237,000, a dip of only 1.6%, said Sandy Darling of Guarantee Real Estate in Fresno.”
But to get to this point - we underwent HUGE discounts - 30 to 40% over the last two years….in some places - even more.
With only one month of statistics to go by, I wouldn’t exactly call it a “trend.” That being said, we may have reduced our prices enough to start seeing positive sales data here…
May 22nd, 2008 at 7:45 am
From The Record
Wayne backs housing for sports dome site
The Township Council introduced an ordinance Wednesday night that would allow for housing at a site where a developer now proposes an 80,000-square-foot sports dome and recreation center.
The council voted 5-0 to introduce the ordinance to change the zoning on the 17-acre site off the Valley Road extension to allow for about 10 houses.
The Midland Park-based Wayne Sports Dome LLC is seeking approval to build a 71-foot-high dome and recreation center that would have artificial turf fields, an Olympic-sized swimming pool, a fitness facility and a school for handicapped young adults. But that project doesn’t fit the current zoning for research or office buildings, so it has come before the Board of Adjustment seeking zoning relief.
…
The council’s proposed zone change to residential does not come out of the blue. The township’s 1994 master plan recommended that type of zoning for the property, and a 2003 reexamination report upheld the recommendation. But the zone change was never adopted.
The developer isn’t happy with the proposed zoning change. Gregory Allen, a member of the LLC, has said the company would consider suing the township if the ordinance were adopted.
—
So instead of getting the zoning changed from research or office building to allow the “sports dome” the developer will now end up with land zoned for housing.
Too bad for the developer that it’s not 2005.
May 22nd, 2008 at 7:51 am
So - how’s the awl bidness this mornin’
May 22nd, 2008 at 7:53 am
# 10 Clot- I know of 3 or 4 ReMax offices that closed in Bergen Co. in the last few weeks, all the same owner. I agree, there are still way too many incompetent agents but that will thin… sooner the better!
May 22nd, 2008 at 8:24 am
Times are getting tough. NYSE just announced a voluntary early retirement package for all employees whose years of service and age equal 65 and Goldman just froze all new hires and is doing a firmwide look at current employees to see where the fat is. Even stranger times of the times are refridgerators. Turns out on Wall Street historically hardly anyone brings lunch to work. A lot of firms are buying fridges left and right to deal with the large amount of employees bringing lunch to work. Crazy times when a 250K a year worker has to brown bag it every day.
May 22nd, 2008 at 8:31 am
From MarketWatch:
U.S. weekly initial jobless claims fall 9,000 to 365,000
U.S. 4-wk. avg. initial jobless claims up 5,000 to 372,250
U.S. 4-wk. avg. continuing jobless claims rise to 3.05 mln
May 22nd, 2008 at 8:38 am
Hat tip to CR for this link, from the Fed:
Charge-off and Delinquency Rates
May 22nd, 2008 at 8:43 am
Trimspa- HAH. Just proves that these products are all gimmicks.
I remmeber seeing one of their cars (can’t remember what it was, maybe a Caddie) with the TRIMSPA license plate. Guess that license plate is part of their $1.4m in assets.
-R
May 22nd, 2008 at 8:53 am
#15,
People brown bag because the food is expensive and sucks in the City, not because they are broke.
May 22nd, 2008 at 8:54 am
#16,
Grim, where’s the recession I ask? Claims should be way above 400K if things are so bad.
May 22nd, 2008 at 8:55 am
lets see, record oil, social security broke,medicaid running out of money,retirement rasied to 67, i could go on.but’s its ok… al’s on top of global warming. we only have ourselves to blame
for these low life pols who will do nothing until we have a crisis.
imagine dragging the oil execs to washington yesterday,,, nothing more than a photo op.
and jimmy owes his boyfriend a couple of hundred grand. is this what it’s come to?
May 22nd, 2008 at 8:56 am
Good lord, another acryonym is going bust. I think I’m noticing a trend, use an acronym to describe a security, and it’ll go bust. Congress needs to pass a resolution requiring a moratorium on acronyms.
From Bloomberg:
Citigroup’s `Last Roman’ CDO Spotlights Banks’ Enron Accounting
Citigroup Inc. created a $2.5 billion mortgage-backed security called Bonifacius Ltd. in August as capital markets seized up and panic swept Wall Street.
The issue took the name of a general, called by historian Edward Gibbon the “last of the Romans,” who fought and died for a fading empire. The bonds were created from subprime home loans as demand evaporated. Within six months, Bonifacius collapsed as homeowners fell behind on their payments in record numbers.
…
“They never got the real problem fixed after Enron,” said Lynn Turner, the chief accountant for the Securities and Exchange Commission when the Enron scandal was exposed. “When people find out how little FASB did, they’re going to be shocked. FASB needs to be taken out behind the woodshed and given a good whoopin’.”
Variable interest entities, or VIEs, are a post-Enron version of special-purpose vehicles, the term for the investments Citigroup created that led to the demise of the energy-trading company. The lack of disclosure about VIEs is adding to concern among investors after financial institutions reported $382.6 billion of writedowns and losses from subprime-contaminated debt since the start of 2007.
May 22nd, 2008 at 8:58 am
Richie (18)-
My favorite of these idiot products was Enzyte. Those TV commercials were creepy, tasteless and funny…all at once.
Enzyte’s owners also have been found guilty of various frauds and money laundering, so they’re way beyond what you’d simply call a failed company.
May 22nd, 2008 at 9:00 am
It is no wonder we’re seeing bailout bills from Congress when Congresspeople themselves are facing foreclosure.
From Capital Weekly:
Foreclosure tale shows that nobody is immune from crisis
As the real estate market softened in 2007, the new owner of a three-bedroom, 1,600-square-foot house in Sacramento’s Curtis Park neighborhood ran into trouble. The house that was purchased for $535,000 in January had lost equity. The owner fell behind in her payments, and eventually, the bank seized the home.
What makes this story different from the thousands like it is that the owner of this house was a member of Congress.
The story of the foreclosure of Long Beach Democrat Laura Richardson’s Sacramento home is a tale of a real estate market gone sour. It is also an illustration of how far many candidates will go to seek elected office, even if it means quite literally mortgaging their own financial future.
…
Richardson’s decision to let the house slip into foreclosure was set in motion by an unlikely chain of events, only some of which had to do with Sacramento’s crumbling real estate market. Richardson was elected to the Assembly in November 2006, and purchased her new capital home two months later. But in April 2007, Rep. Juanita Millender-McDonald succumbed to cancer, creating a Congressional vacancy in Richardson’s district.
May 22nd, 2008 at 9:01 am
grim (22)-
I guess this is what Prince meant when he said “keep dancing”:
“Citigroup Inc. created a $2.5 billion mortgage-backed security called Bonifacius Ltd. in August as capital markets seized up and panic swept Wall Street.”
What smashing stupidity. I’m beginning to think these guys may actually bite the dust before WaMu.
May 22nd, 2008 at 9:03 am
grim (25)-
Talk about f*ck up and move up…
May 22nd, 2008 at 9:03 am
Kevin Dawe, a real estate agent with Balsley Losco Real Estate in Northfield, said last week’s report that the median home price in the Atlantic City area rose 4.8 percent in the first quarter didn’t match what he’s been seeing.
I don’t think this is a matter of the NAR lying about the numbers. A 4.8% increase in the median price of a homes actually sold in AC during the first qtr. is probably a factually correct statement. The problem comes in extrapolating this data point to say the price of homes in AC increased by 4.8%, which is highly doubtful.
AC has seen a lot of new construction at the higher end of the market, which will bring up median sale prices, even if home prices are actually falling. This is largely due to the mix of homes getting sold.
For example, Stinky Pete’s used car lot sells Chevys & Fords. Last weekend the median price of the cars sold on their lot was $10k. This weekend they decide to add BMWs to their inventory and to promote the change they hold a 10% off sale for all cars. This weekend, the median price of cars sold goes to $15k. The price of cars drop 10%, but the addition of the BMW’s drive up the median price of cars actually sold. Additionally, even buyers in the market for a Chevy or Ford now have the option of pocketing the 10% savings or using it to get something a little nicer than they could previously afford. Many will chose to buy at their budget level. This will show up in the median statistics as a flat or even rising median sales price.
May 22nd, 2008 at 9:03 am
State proposes early retirement plan
http://www.nj.com/news/ledger/jersey/index.ssf?/base/news-10/1211430975318780.xml&coll=1
May 22nd, 2008 at 9:04 am
Clot,
I did work for the owner. Can’t really say more than that.
May 22nd, 2008 at 9:04 am
I’ll just say that nobody ever made a fortune overestimating the intelligence of the American public.
May 22nd, 2008 at 9:07 am
#19 frank: The food on the city sucks? yes it is expensive, but sucks? As far as claims, unfortunatley they will get to that 400k level and higher.
May 22nd, 2008 at 9:08 am
the american public , morons ,but hey
rutgers gave 10k degrees yesterday.
May 22nd, 2008 at 9:12 am
19. 3b Says:
May 22nd, 2008 at 9:07 am
#19 frank: The food on the city sucks? yes it is expensive, but sucks?
Manhattan pizza sucks. It has nothing on Jersey pizza. My theory is that pizzerias here have such a high volume of customers everyday no matter what, that they don’t need to worry about taste/quality.
May 22nd, 2008 at 9:15 am
Lack of differentiation causes commoditization in the market. Commoditization increases pricing pressures, and the quality falls across suppliers.
May 22nd, 2008 at 9:18 am
I believe Commoditization-Differentiation is a key factor in why condo and townhome prices fell more dramatically during the last real estate bust, when compared to single family homes. Single family homes tend to have a larger number of differentiating factors, unlike condos and townhomes, which can be looked at as just a commodity. The greater competition among the commoditized/undifferentiated units led to greater and faster price declines.
You can probably apply this same theory to the large scale SFH communities as well.
But yeah, the pizza sucks.
May 22nd, 2008 at 9:18 am
YoungBuck says:
“Manhattan pizza sucks.”
But nothing is more atrocious than the tasteless cardboard pizza served as “snacks” at kids birthday parties.
May 22nd, 2008 at 9:19 am
Frank (15),
“People brown bag because the food is expensive and sucks in the City, not because they are broke.”
What have you been doing, eating from a cart?
May 22nd, 2008 at 9:21 am
Grim, where’s the recession I ask? Claims should be way above 400K if things are so bad.
I don’t have any links offhand, but I’ve read in a few places that:
1) Companies are slowly laying off workers over time rather than making large numbers if cuts at once, but the end result will be the same
2) Many people are getting hours cut or are taking temp or lower paying jobs and are therefore not showing up in jobless claims
May 22nd, 2008 at 9:22 am
Ritholtz takes a look at the 400k meme this morning:
http://bigpicture.typepad.com/comments/2008/05/continuing-unem.html
May 22nd, 2008 at 9:25 am
#37,
I tried everything these days, but unless I spend $20 on lunch it’s all heart attack specials.
May 22nd, 2008 at 9:25 am
I take it back, at 3am, *any* pizza is good.
May 22nd, 2008 at 9:28 am
#38,
My friends that got laid off from Merrill and Cit are happily employed already.
My phone keeps ringing from recruiters looking to fill hedge fund spots.
At 5% unemployment things are not bad. Talk to the French and Germans they manage in 10%+ unemployment rate.
May 22nd, 2008 at 9:34 am
The US is not France or Germany.
May 22nd, 2008 at 9:38 am
Whos says unemployment is the hinge pin to the economy and more specifically housing?
People may still be in their jobs but apparently wages aren’t keeping up with inflation (and debt) to keep the economy chugging.
Housing was (and is) dying before unemployment numbers started creeping up.
May 22nd, 2008 at 9:38 am
Yeah like the food is so great at the Olive Garden or Applebees in insert name mall. I think the places in Manhattan with not great food eventually die. The places by where I work that have good food are jam packed.
May 22nd, 2008 at 9:40 am
As for pizza, the variance is wide in quality. Some excellent places, but you have to no to avoid the bad places. I don’t quite understand how there are so many of the Ray Bari pizza’s. Those are horrible.
May 22nd, 2008 at 9:44 am
I tried everything these days, but unless I spend $20 on lunch it’s all heart attack specials.
I spend usually about $10 a day for food. That’s lunch & dinner. The food is probably a little over salted sometimes, but you can usually get a decent sandwich that’s healthy for $8 or less.
May 22nd, 2008 at 9:48 am
Glad to see that I’m not going nuts. When this report came out, I almost messed my pants when I saw that prices had increased in areas of the state.
I find the end of the article to be interesting where it says high end sales are skewing the numbers. Can we take this as more proof of the erosion of the middle class?
May 22nd, 2008 at 9:55 am
#47,
Hard Place, I am an old timer, I still think $3.5 for a sandwich is too much. I guess I need to adjust my expectation for inflation.
May 22nd, 2008 at 9:57 am
#35…I agree. Condos are the ultimate commodity….however, even on my block of 3bdr ranches, people decorate the insides, have different exteriors and different size back yards and landscaping and location which may appeal to a particular buyer.
May 22nd, 2008 at 9:58 am
I thought AC had some luxury condos come on line recently. I think that would skew th eprice upwards, especially if the lower end’s volume and prices have dropped.
May 22nd, 2008 at 9:58 am
# 32 “rutgers gave 10k degrees yesterday.”
What was it the Wizard of Oz said to the straw man? Some thing like:
Why, anybody can have a brain. That’s a very mediocre commodity. Every pusillanimous creature that crawls on the Earth or slinks through slimy seas has a brain. Back where I come from, we have universities, seats of great learning, where men go to become great thinkers. And when they come out, they think deep thoughts and with no more brains than you have. But they have one thing you haven’t got: a diploma.
May 22nd, 2008 at 10:00 am
# 42 “Talk to the French and Germans they manage in 10%+ unemployment rate.”
This is true, but they count differently than we do. If we used the same method of counting the unemployed, I suspect we would be just as high as they are.
May 22nd, 2008 at 10:01 am
Mr Bruno’s in Lyndhurst has excellent pizza/dinners. But you really can’t get bad Italian food in Lyndhurst.
May 22nd, 2008 at 10:01 am
48
I am not sure if its due to erosion of middle class, or even that higher end buyers are less effective by tight credit. Many of the most expensive homes were purchased with exotic mortgages, even if the buyer wasn’t a typical subprime borrower. Hence, they may have less ability to hold-out for peak prices than folks one tier down with similar incomes and credit. So, I suspect you seeing a shift in mix between what were 500-650k peak price homes and 650-900k peak price. Even if the 900k peak houses are selling for 750k, the average price will go up if 2 of those are selling for every 1 650k now at 540k house, vs the opposite more typical split. Bottom line median price is sort of useless, unless its attached to “median house” for comparison purposes.
May 22nd, 2008 at 10:04 am
#42: frank:My phone keeps ringing from recruiters looking to fill hedge fund spots.
That statement sounds very suspect to say the least. As far as your friends who were laid off from Citi and Merrill, where are they happily employed now? Goldman, Morgan Stanley, JP Morgan, Credit Suisse, perhaps E-Trade? (oh wait they are laying off too)
May 22nd, 2008 at 10:04 am
OFHEO numbers due out any minute now.
May 22nd, 2008 at 10:05 am
53 Shore
What’s the difference in methods of counting the unemployed?
May 22nd, 2008 at 10:07 am
OFHEO - Prices down 3.1% y/o/y
May 22nd, 2008 at 10:07 am
Grim I have a couple of questions about NJ real estate license but I don’t want to bore the blog- any chance I can email directly?
May 22nd, 2008 at 10:07 am
From MarketWatch:
U.S. Q1 OFHEO home prices down 1.7%
May 22nd, 2008 at 10:08 am
kiwi,
No problem, jamesbednar at gmail dot com.
May 22nd, 2008 at 10:08 am
That’s 3.1% y/o/y for the first quarter.
Down .4% in March from Feb.
May 22nd, 2008 at 10:09 am
From OFHEO:
DECLINE IN HOUSE PRICES ACCELERATES IN FIRST QUARTER
May 22nd, 2008 at 10:11 am
I have heard some economists discuss this before, and do not have all of the details at hand but as I understand it they, and the Canadians, take the number of people who are employed at the level of employment they seek (so a person who wants part-time employment who wants to work part time is fully employed and a person who wants full-time employment but only can get part-time employment is counted at some fraction of employment) by the number of working age people in the population.
We stop counting people after awhile, we count people as employed if they do any work for pay during the survey period, etc. We overestimate our employment figures and undercount the unemployed.
May 22nd, 2008 at 10:14 am
#56,
Hedge funds, insurance companies, pharma, accounting firms. Wall St is only hiring consultants these days.
May 22nd, 2008 at 10:15 am
65 Shore
Thanks for the info.
It’s amazing how you can make numbers look any way you want them to. So much for math being factual.
May 22nd, 2008 at 10:15 am
From MarketWatch:
U.S. Q1 OFHEO home prices down 1.7%
In the first quarter U.S. home prices fell a seasonally adjusted 1.7% — the largest quarterly price decline on record, the Office of Federal Housing Enterprise Oversight reported Thursday. Prices fell 3.1% in the past year. In the prior quarter, prices declined 1.4%. For March, prices fell 0.4%. The OFHEO index is based on repeat sales of homes mortgaged through Fannie Mae and Freddie Mac.
(emphasis added)
May 22nd, 2008 at 10:18 am
I don’t know if anybody has asked this but why don’t I see any more “Lowball” postings? The last one was January.
May 22nd, 2008 at 10:18 am
#15, #19
Somehow I’ve been skipping lunch lately. Works out pretty cool. Get more done at work at mid-day, save around $50 per week, avoid the lunch hour crowd, can eat all I want for breakfast and dinner and still end up losing some weight.
May 22nd, 2008 at 10:20 am
Do OFHEO and Case-Shiller indexes include REO and short sales?
May 22nd, 2008 at 10:21 am
Will,
It takes me something on the order of 3 or 4 hours to pull the data together to do that post, which usually means dedicating an entire Saturday or Sunday morning to the task. Custom programming, scripts to scrape HTML pages, an incredibly frustrating amount of tedious cut and pasting, etc. I wish I could do it with a single click, but I can’t. The answer? I’m lazy.
May 22nd, 2008 at 10:29 am
Grim,
I did not know that and now I understand. That’s tough getting all that together. Do you think if someone here knew how to do custom scripting with perl could possibly create something that is almost automatic or do you think it takes a lot of manual sorting through things no matter what? The reason why I ask is because I use perl for a lot of reporting tasks on my servers and I have grown to love working with it but some things just can’t be done and I bet this is one of them, but I’m asking just in case.
May 22nd, 2008 at 10:32 am
For what it is worth:
http://www.cnbc.com/id/23447576
The Spring RE Guide
May 22nd, 2008 at 10:33 am
# 74 I figured it would heve one item “Duck and cover.”
May 22nd, 2008 at 10:34 am
Shore (52)-
Everything you need to know about America is explained by The Wizard of Oz.
It is our country’s Orlando, Beowulf, Niebelungenliede, etc…all rolled into one.
May 22nd, 2008 at 10:40 am
Clot,
Who was it that the character Frasier Crane listed as Americans’ greatest philosophers? I believe it was Larry, Curley, and Moe. Which also explains much about this country. That and the fact that 80-odd million people can recite, in great detail, vast amount of information about the various American Idol or Dancing with the Stars participants, but cannot say anything meaningful about the public policy positions of their current congressional representatives or the current crop of presidential candidates.
May 22nd, 2008 at 10:40 am
Grim (72),
I think your time estitmate will continue to increase as it seems most sales are low balls these days.
I find the flat or loss of value compared to previous sales to be more tellling.
May 22nd, 2008 at 10:40 am
The wizard of Oz certainly explains the Fed.
May 22nd, 2008 at 10:40 am
From CNBC:
Home Prices Post Record Declines In First Quarter
The US housing market continued to weaken in the first quarter, with home prices falling a record 1.7% from the previous quarter and a record 3.1% from a year earlier, the Office of Federal Housing Enterprise Oversight said.
May 22nd, 2008 at 10:41 am
# 80 Which makes this ……………………………………………………………………………………………………………………………………………
May 22nd, 2008 at 10:41 am
From Reuters:
Home price declines at record: OFHEO
May 22nd, 2008 at 10:41 am
A great time…………………………………
May 22nd, 2008 at 10:42 am
Pay no attention to that man behind the curtain.
May 22nd, 2008 at 10:42 am
From the AP:
Gov’t home price index posts largest drop in 17-year history
The government says U.S. home prices posted a first-quarter decline bigger than any other in the 17-year history of tracking the data.
May 22nd, 2008 at 10:42 am
C’mon, everybody. You know how to end that statement.
May 22nd, 2008 at 10:43 am
From Bloomberg:
First Quarter U.S. Home Prices Tumble 3.1 Percent, Ofheo Says
U.S. house prices fell 3.1 percent in the first quarter from a year earlier, according to a government report.
Prices for previously owned single-family homes also fell an average of 1.7 percent from the fourth quarter of 2007, the Office of Federal Housing Enterprise Oversight, known as Ofheo, said today in Washington.
Potential buyers are waiting for falling prices to hit bottom, causing the inventory of unsold properties to swell. People who are ready to buy face difficulty obtaining financing as lenders have tightened lending standards and cut back on the number of mortgages they are writing.
“It’s a dismal picture, there’s no way around it,” said Paul Kasriel, chief economist at Northern Trust Corp. in Chicago. “A complicating factor is the fact that so many homeowners owe more on their mortgages than their houses are worth. This is a financial crisis. You can’t put lipstick on this pig.”
May 22nd, 2008 at 10:45 am
From MarketWatch
U.S. home prices down 1.7% in first quarter: OFHEO
U.S. home prices fell a seasonally adjusted 1.7% in the first three months of 2008 — the largest quarterly price decline on record, the Office of Federal Housing Enterprise Oversight reported Thursday.
Prices fell in 43 states, according to the agency. Prices were down 3.1% between the first quarter of 2007 and the first quarter of 2008, OFHEO’s data showed.
“For homeowners and financial market observers, these declines spell further erosion in home equity levels and potentially more trouble for mortgage markets,” said James Lockhart, OFHEO director. “To prospective home buyers who have been shut out of homeownership because of affordability constraints, these declines may be welcome news, as are continued low mortgage rates.”
…
On Wednesday, trade groups representing realtors and architects reported that commercial real-estate markets should weaken in the months ahead.
May 22nd, 2008 at 10:45 am
While I prefer to describe the market in terms of the inability to polish fecal matter, the ol’ “lipstick on the pig” works just fine.
May 22nd, 2008 at 10:46 am
# 80 #85 or floods, pestilence, economic chaos, personal bankruptcy, nuclear winter, entering hospice, it does not matter. Every disaster is just a good opportunity to……………….
May 22nd, 2008 at 10:46 am
Pay a commission?
May 22nd, 2008 at 10:47 am
(83)
…eat pizza?
…buy a stroller?
…shout out my stock/bond/commodity gains?
…ramble on about my personal political choice?
May 22nd, 2008 at 10:48 am
…complain about the fact that it cost me $70 to fill my tank this morning. Even worse knowing that it’ll all be gone by this evening. No skeeball for me down at the shore this weekend. I hope the shore businesses weren’t banking on a strong Memorial Day weekend this year.
May 22nd, 2008 at 10:50 am
You can afford to go to the shore?!
Why not just flaunt the gains you’ve made on your coral holdings too!
May 22nd, 2008 at 10:52 am
OFHEO purchase only index for NJ
Down 2.45% YOY
Down 1.45% Since last Qtr.
The OFHEO home price index includes a large number of refi’s. These tend to “kinder” to home prices than actual transactions. The “purchase only” index strips out the refinancings.
May 22nd, 2008 at 10:52 am
#67 lost,
old story of lies, darn lies and statistics.
#84 What curtain, clot? I don’t see any curtain…
off to work…catch you folks later.
sl
May 22nd, 2008 at 10:54 am
oh right, I forgot… fill *my* Pathfinder with gas to get there… grim, I feel your pain. :-(
sl
May 22nd, 2008 at 10:55 am
Afford to go down the shore? Heck no. I’ve got inlaws. But yeah, I guess I don’t have a right to complain.
Did I mention they make me do illegal construction for my bunk? I’m dreading the next bathroom remodel. Although, I’m looking forward to playing with PEX and a tankless water heater.
May 22nd, 2008 at 10:57 am
To answer my own question.
Do OFHEO and Case-Shiller indexes include REO and short sales?
“Subsequent sales by mortgage lenders of foreclosed properties are included if repeat sales pairs, because they are arms-length transactions”
May 22nd, 2008 at 11:01 am
…complain about the fact that it cost me $70 to fill my tank this morning
Just be happy the warm weather is here.
M 08 Heating Oil popped $4/gallon on NYMEX this morning. If these prices hold, we are probbaly looking at $5/gallon retail heating oil by winter.
May 22nd, 2008 at 11:05 am
56: 3b Says:
#42: frank:My phone keeps ringing from recruiters looking to fill hedge fund spots.
That statement sounds very suspect to say the least. As far as your friends who were laid off from Citi and Merrill, where are they happily employed now? Goldman, Morgan Stanley, JP Morgan, Credit Suisse, perhaps E-Trade? (oh wait they are laying off too)
They are now at MickDees, WhinDees and WaiteKhastel…
May 22nd, 2008 at 11:09 am
http://www.unsnobbycoffee.com/
Free pinball (no skeeball money needed) and coupons for coffee.
There. Who needs the shore, anyway?
If only Mickey Dee could figure out how to beam sunshine out of my monitor and I could convince the boss to let us wear swimsuits to work.
May 22nd, 2008 at 11:17 am
What will happen to oil prices during hurricane season?
From MarketWatch:
NOAA: Near or above normal Atlantic hurricane season seen
NOAA expects 6 to 9 hurricanes, 2 to 5 major hurricanes
NOAA sees 60%-70% chance of 12-16 named storms
May 22nd, 2008 at 11:20 am
Where are all the Oil profits are going?
http://globalwarming.house.gov/tools/2q08materials/files/0045.pdf
May 22nd, 2008 at 11:23 am
renting ,
watch the price of natrual gas as winter approaches….. oil will hurt, but a large % of peopl ein the northeast use natural gas. Guess what all the recently built power plants run on ….. natural gas…. look for a respectable price spike/ supply issues
May 22nd, 2008 at 11:24 am
From the Star Ledger:
Trucker group backs NJ toll, gas-tax hikes
A truck-drivers association today endorsed a proposal to raise tolls and the gasoline tax in New Jersey.
The Association of Bi-State Motor Carriers backed Assemblyman John Wisniewski’s plan to pay for transportation. Its president, Jeffrey Bader, saids the plan is sensible and responsible.
Wisniewski proposes increasing New Jersey Turnpike tolls 25 percent, Garden State Parkway tolls 50 cents and Atlantic City Expressway tolls 75 cents, with more increases in later years.
The Assembly transportation panel chairman also wants to boost the 14.5 cent per gallon gas tax by 18 cents over three years.
May 22nd, 2008 at 11:26 am
Just for giggles, I searched on the MLS for a similar house to the one I bought in 2006 (at 20% under comps). Seems like I am about 10k away from breaking even on the amount paid in my 2006 purchase.
I don’t regret buying yet…
May 22nd, 2008 at 11:27 am
NEW YORKERS DEAL WITH THE CRUNCH
http://www.nypost.com/php/pfriendly/print.php?url=http://www.nypost.com/seven/05152008/realestate/new_yorkers_deal_with_the_crunch_110846.htm
May 22nd, 2008 at 11:28 am
From the Staten Island Advance:
Staten Island a good place to raise kids, study says
May 22nd, 2008 at 11:29 am
Developers Move Away From Outlandish Residential Amenities
http://www.nysun.com/real-estate/developers-move-away-from-outlandish-residential/76875/?print=9410741121
May 22nd, 2008 at 11:30 am
Grim unmod 108
May 22nd, 2008 at 11:33 am
http://www.fanniemae.com/media/pdf/newsreleases/2008_Q1_10Q_Investor_Summary.pdf
Note: Using the S&P/Case-Shiller weighting method, but excluding the increased impact of foreclosure sales on that index, our 2008 expected home price decline would be 10-13% (vs. 7-9%); our expected peak-to-trough decline would be 20-25% (vs. 15-19%). The S&P/Case-Shiller Index is value-weighted, whereas the Fannie Mae index is unit-weighted; hence the S&P/Case-Shiller index places greater weight on higher cost metropolitan areas. In addition, the S&P/Case Shiller index includes foreclosure sales; foreclosure sales are excluded from the Fannie Mae index and from this forecast. Foreclosure sales tend to depress the S&P/Case Shiller index relative to the Fannie Mae index.
May 22nd, 2008 at 11:33 am
Grim, avoid the tankless, my folks put one in down the shore after 2 months of boiling hot/freezing cold showers it went to the curb and a tank was put back. I don’t know if it was just the brand(bosch) but many people had the same complaints.
May 22nd, 2008 at 11:40 am
There’s a relatively new ETF with a ticker of DBE. It’s 1/4 natural gas, 1/4 gasoline, 1/4 heating oil, 1/4 crude. Only bad thing is it’s not that well known so its volume is not that high so you may not be able to enter and exit at the price you want.
Personal opinion is that’s the one major problem with these ETF’s, the volume, firms are coming out with better products but if there’s limited volume you cam have hard times getting in and out. I’d reccommend before anybody invest in any of them that they keep that in mind and also what the weighting is if it’s modeled on an index. Some of them you are basically buying 3-4 stocks as 50-75% of the ETF.
May 22nd, 2008 at 11:40 am
Ps. I am not an investment advisor, I do not know anything.
May 22nd, 2008 at 11:46 am
Layoffs ‘08: Bloodbath in JP Morgan’s Structured Finance Group
http://dealbreaker.com/2008/05/layoffs_08_bloodbath_in_jp_mor.php
May 22nd, 2008 at 11:49 am
DJ US Energy Secy: Tight Mkt, Not Speculation, Driving Oil Prices
http://www.tradingmarkets.com/.site/news/Stock%20News/1601410/
Take that Congress!!!
May 22nd, 2008 at 11:54 am
Re: eating lunch in NYC
I can’t resist the $5 footlongs from Subway, but I’m cheap and not terribly picky about food. Being right across the street from the office helps too.
May 22nd, 2008 at 11:57 am
93 grim
“No skeeball for me down at the shore this weekend. I hope the shore businesses weren’t banking on a strong Memorial Day weekend this year”
did you catch the bit on CNBC this morning where reps from Hershey Park and Busch Gardens etc. were being asked about the effect of high oil prices on the tourism industry? They all maintained that it would be beneficial since people would vacation in the Yoo Ess of Ay instead of traveling abroad, but my favorite bit was this:
CNBC HOST: “Is there any level at which the cost of gas becomes prohibitive enough that it could affect your business?”
HERSHEY PARK REP: “No.”
May 22nd, 2008 at 12:03 pm
Boomers love chocolate.
May 22nd, 2008 at 12:05 pm
RentinginNJ Says:
May 22nd, 2008 at 10:52 am
“OFHEO purchase only index for NJ
Down 2.45% YOY
Down 1.45% Since last Qtr. ”
So where’s Pret?
May 22nd, 2008 at 12:07 pm
schlivo Says:
“So where’s Pret?”
Right here. So what’s your 2008 NJ home price prediction?
May 22nd, 2008 at 12:12 pm
109 Grim
The best part is the fighting in the comments after articles like that.
May 22nd, 2008 at 12:42 pm
From Reuters:
Subprime, Alt-A mortgage delinquencies rising: S&P
Delinquencies in U.S. subprime debt and higher-quality mortgages known as Alt-A securities are continuing to increase, Standard & Poor’s said on Thursday.
Delinquencies for Alt-A mortgages rated between 2005 and 2007 are climbing, with total delinquencies rising as high as 17 percent in some cases, more than 6 percentage points higher than previous estimates, the ratings agency said in a report.
Lower-quality subprime mortgage delinquencies soared as high as 37 percent for mortgages originated in 2006, 4 percentage points higher than previous estimates, S&P said.
Subprime mortgages originated in 2007 saw delinquencies climb to almost 26 percent, 6 percentage points higher.
“The 2007 issuance year continues to be the worst-performing vintage in terms of cumulative losses,” S&P said, regarding subprime mortgages. “Serious delinquencies” of payments 90 days late or more and foreclosures also are rising, S&P said.
May 22nd, 2008 at 12:43 pm
From CNBC:
S&P And The Staggering “New” Home Foreclosure Numbers
Whenever I see the word “traunches,” my eyes tend to roll backwards in my head because the world of mortgage backed securities and how they are rated is positively mind numbing.
But I can’t ignore a report from Standard and Poors today that puts some staggering new numbers on the mortgage crisis.
Delinquencies for Alt-A mortgages (these are the low-doc, no-doc loans where you don’t have to prove your income, etc.) rated between 2005 and 2007 are continuing to climb, with total delinquencies now as high as 17 percent in some cases. That’s 6 percentage points higher than previous estimates.
And of course it’s worse for subprimes. Subprime delinquencies are now as high as 37 percent for mortgages originated in 2006, that’s four percentage points higher than previous estimates. And the 2007 issuance year, according to S&P, “continues to be the worst-performing vintage in terms of cumulative losses.”
That leaves me to wonder why the estimates were off? Did S&P expect home prices to stabilize or lender/government programs to save more folks from falling behind on payments? Clearly things aren’t improving, and the more folks I talk to, the more I hear that we are not really near the end of the foreclosure crisis.
I know the Realtors, when they report existing home sales tomorrow, will likely say we’re bumping along the bottom with sales beginning to rebound.
May 22nd, 2008 at 12:51 pm
watch the price of natrual gas as winter approaches….look for a respectable price spike/ supply issues
Typically over the summer months the U.S. refills storage with imported LNG. However, LNG worldwide demand is high right now (as are prices) and most of these shipments are not coming to the U.S. As a result, we are likely to start next winter without full storage.
May 22nd, 2008 at 12:55 pm
times are so tough my boss is staying at his pied a tier coops in NYC a few nights a week to stay on commuting costs. it is tough at all levels.
May 22nd, 2008 at 12:55 pm
Does anybody have a link to the mortgages in Bergen County?
I have the link for Morris, but I can’t find Bergen.
May 22nd, 2008 at 12:57 pm
#87 “You can’t put lipstick on this pig.”
Looks like the NAR is going into cosmetics soon.
May 22nd, 2008 at 12:58 pm
From MarketWatch
GSEs seek extension in new loan-buying authority
Congress should make an increase in the conforming loan limit in certain areas of the country permanent, mortgage-buyers and realtors argued Thursday, saying such a move would help the housing market.
Executives from Fannie Mae, Freddie Mac, the National Association of Realtors and other organizations testified before a House Financial Services Committee about the increase in the loan limit, approved in February by President Bush.
…
The prior limit was $417,000. The new limit ($729,750) expires at the end of the year.
But lawmakers said the new limits aren’t working as quickly as they’d like to get the nation’s mortgage market back on its feet.
…
Several members of the committee said they supported a permanent increase in the loan-limit, but a bill passed by the Senate Banking Committee would reduce the limit to $550,000.
…
Executives from Fannie and Freddie, so-called government-sponsored enterprises, or GSEs, that buy mortgages and package them for sale as securities, said they are beginning to see results and urged lawmakers to allow them to buy bigger loans indefinitely.
…
Patricia Cook, Freddie Mac’s executive vice president and chief business officer, told lawmakers that it would be up to Wall Street to fund mortgages after the higher limits expire at the end of the year.
“As we have seen over the past year, however, Wall Street is not nearly as reliable as the GSEs in times of market disruptions, and at some point the jumbo market could revisit the dislocations of 2007-2008,” she testified.
More “testimony” at the link above, Rich
May 22nd, 2008 at 1:00 pm
Hehehe Says:
May 22nd, 2008 at 11:20 am
Where are all the Oil profits are going?
http://globalwarming.house.gov/tools/2q08materials/files/0045.pdf
H: I don’t want to pick a fight, but this article is a specious pile of patent idiocy that may just as easily be funded by private equity with huge investments in wind and solar.
The U.S. oil companies are completely screwed. They are buying back stock, because they have tied hands in terms of gaining access to fresh oil supplies. In the long-run, the state-controlled/sovereign-influenced oil companies of other nations are going to crush our guys. Additionally, oil prices are pure value destruction at this juncture, not an unlimited bankroll.
Look at the prices of these said companies…are they flying through the roof? NO! In fact, it the most recent quarter, these companies underperformed because ultimately, they actually need to buy more oil that they personally own.
Please do not misunderstand me. There is a large amount of factual assertions in the release, but it is about 60% facts and 40% political grandstanding. Do you want to attack corporate america? fine….but don’t single out these guys. Further, in the long-run we are in a lot of trouble if such easily supported and attractive philosophies take hold to the detrement of global competitive and strategic control of our own destiny.
May 22nd, 2008 at 1:11 pm
KETTLE
“The world’s premier energy monitor is preparing a sharp downward revision of its oil-supply forecast, a shift that reflects deepening pessimism over whether oil companies can keep abreast of booming demand.
The Paris-based International Energy Agency is in the middle of its first attempt to comprehensively assess the condition of the world’s top 400 oil fields. Its findings won’t be released until November, but the bottom line is already clear: Future crude supplies could be far tighter than previously thought.”
http://online.wsj.com/article/SB121139527250011387.html?mod=hpp_us_whats_news
May 22nd, 2008 at 1:12 pm
“The U.S. oil companies are completely screwed. They are buying back stock, because they have tied hands in terms of gaining access to fresh oil supplies. In the long-run, the state-controlled/sovereign-influenced oil companies of other nations are going to crush our guys.”
In the long run, all oil companies that do not diversify out of oil are screwed.
May 22nd, 2008 at 1:14 pm
131:
Chi: I know oil stocks are due to underperform. How? Jim Cramer this morning advised viewers to load up on them.
May 22nd, 2008 at 1:15 pm
njpatient Says:
May 22nd, 2008 at 1:12 pm
In the long run, all oil companies that do not diversify out of oil are screwed.
njp: are you one of the Rockerfeller trust babies?
May 22nd, 2008 at 1:21 pm
I have an idea for the oil companies, pump those profits into high lipid content algae farms, because presumably with oil at $130 it now makes sense to get diesel equivilents from non-food, high growth rate plants.
May 22nd, 2008 at 1:22 pm
I meant research algae farms.
May 22nd, 2008 at 1:24 pm
Jamey Says:
May 22nd, 2008 at 1:14 pm
131: Chi: I know oil stocks are due to underperform. How? Jim Cramer this morning advised viewers to load up on them.
Define….which and what….
(1) by county
(2) by step in the production chain…
For #2:
Buy oil directly
Buy owners of oil reserves
Buy oil explorers for (a)land or (b)sea
Buy builders of exploration equipment
Buy suppliers to the builders of equipment
Buy maintenance companies for existing oil sources
Buy construction companies that build wells (a)land or (b)sea
Buy maintenance companies for existing oil sources
Buy transporters of oil
Buy refiners of oil
as an example…the last step in the chain has gotten killed - why? They buy oil, but refined product prices have not kept pace so their margins are squeezed. XOM has the whole thing covered except “oil reserves” so they are getting hurt more than you would think.
It is really very complicated….
May 22nd, 2008 at 1:27 pm
Maybe I should buy the company that makes the barrels that hold the oil. Now who will notice if the barrel price doubled when oil is at $135.
May 22nd, 2008 at 1:40 pm
Sexy espresso
Anyone notice a leering gentleman with NC plates?
May 22nd, 2008 at 1:48 pm
http://www.state.nj.us/treasury/pensions/stateeri2008.htm
May 22nd, 2008 at 1:50 pm
#109..grew upon SI…maybe it was the time….I remember when our roads got paved for the first time! had neat little mini bike trails to ride our “sting ray” bikes on, biked to the waterfront, played in the woods…wasn’t bad…no ballfields though (20 minute car ride)….
May 22nd, 2008 at 2:02 pm
138:
That’s more parsing of a Cramer screed than I had anticipated, but:
2) ExxonMobil, etc. The US-based “blue chips,” or at least that’s what I inferred from Cramer’s breathless declaration.
1) Bergen. Always Bergen.
May 22nd, 2008 at 2:16 pm
[134] Jamey,
Good enough for me. Cramer is a contrarian signal for me too. Will be entering sell XOM.
May 22nd, 2008 at 2:19 pm
Chi,
I agree with the bias of the group but the facts in the report do raise some questions re exploration/diversification issues.
In many ways, with the exception of exploration in the US, I agree with the US companies exploration activities. Why should they dump a huge chunk of change into exploration/development in Russia or Venezuala then have Chavez or Putin come in and take it over once it gets profitable.
The most important thing they point out is the lack of venturing into oil alternatives.
I could care less about the socialistic babble re executive pay.
May 22nd, 2008 at 2:32 pm
Who could blame the realtors? There is a lot of conflicting information and opinions on improvements in the real estate market.
May 22nd, 2008 at 2:34 pm
10yr is aproaching 4%.
Is this a resul tof yesterdays feds minutes on inflation?
get we get rates to double digits and crush this housing bubble and return to business as usual?
it would be nice to save the dollar.
May 22nd, 2008 at 2:34 pm
10yr is aproaching 4%.
Is this a result of yesterdays feds minutes on inflation?
get we get rates to double digits and crush this housing bubble and return to business as usual?
it would be nice to save the dollar.
May 22nd, 2008 at 2:38 pm
Where can I find housing inventory statistics for New Jersey, and Somerset county in particular?
May 22nd, 2008 at 2:39 pm
Grim unmoderate me man
May 22nd, 2008 at 2:42 pm
#145 fmoore: on improvements in the real estate market.
I do not think anybody can maintian that we are seeing anything that could be called an improvement in the real estate market.
May 22nd, 2008 at 2:53 pm
Nom Deplume Says:
May 21st, 2008 at 7:07 pm
[258] confused,
Tell me more about the 9/4/2 split in NP. Any intelligence I could use?
I sold a house two doors away in 2003, by owner for $520K, (no commissions), with a sign in the dirt for two days. I know that house, it’s larger then mine was, located on Brookside Drive, walk to SaltBrook school, NP train, downtown and Lyons Park. Yards are private with SaltBrook behind them, no water problems. Owner is retiring, moving to NY where his daughter lives. There is another one priced at $599K, same house on Grant Ave with the train behind it.
May 22nd, 2008 at 2:58 pm
#147 - Make Money - It has been flirting with 4% for a few weeks now, hitting the mid 3.9xx region and then dropping back again.
I am not a bond trader so the intricacies of the market are unknown to me, I was chalking it up to a lack of demand for a variety of reasons.
May 22nd, 2008 at 2:58 pm
Top banks call for relaxed writedown rules
The world’s leading banks have stepped up pressure to relax controversial accounting rules with a new plan aimed at breaking the “downward spiral” of huge writedowns, emergency fundraisings and fire-sales of assets.
http://www.ft.com/cms/s/0/07cb8b1a-275e-11dd-b7cb-000077b07658.html
I like the word “controversial”. I do not believe the rules were controversial when they were making record profits the past several years.
May 22nd, 2008 at 3:03 pm
Well, accounting is a controversial activity to begin with.
After all, there haven’t been THAT many Enrons.
Why should we need accounting rules that help investors value assets, anyway.
May 22nd, 2008 at 3:04 pm
3b
I think “fmoore” threw out a comment just to get his link posted.
May 22nd, 2008 at 3:17 pm
chicagofinance Says:
May 21st, 2008 at 12:27 pm
Again posting…
Does anyone have access to the Monmouth County MLS?
njcoast Says:
May 21st, 2008 at 12:56 pm
chicagofinance
I do.
njcoast:
There is a small subdivision of eastern Middletown called Locust. I think it shares a zip code with Rumson.
I assume there are very few listings. Do you have a breakdown of all listings that may have expired and also transactions since last summer?
If it is more than a few, maybe I could ask to take this offline.
Please let me know, and thank you much in advance.
May 22nd, 2008 at 3:17 pm
chicagofinance Says:
May 21st, 2008 at 12:27 pm
Again posting…
Does anyone have access to the Monmouth County MLS?
njcoast Says:
May 21st, 2008 at 12:56 pm
chicagofinance
I do.
njcoast:
There is a small subdivision of eastern Middletown called Locust. I think it shares a zip code with Rumson.
I assume there are very few listings. Do you have a breakdown of all listings that may have expired and also transactions since last summer?
If it is more than a few, maybe I could ask to take this offline.
Please let me know, and thank you much in advance.
May 22nd, 2008 at 3:28 pm
#157 chicagofinance
I’d be glad to help you. You may get my email address from Grim.
May 22nd, 2008 at 3:33 pm
Hello,
Since you did not post my last comment (a reply) could you please delete my first comment. Thank you.
May 22nd, 2008 at 3:51 pm
On energy prices.
The producers blame the speculators. The investors blame demand and the dollar. The reg agencies say supply is fine, and are mum on the dollar. As dollar sinks further, they get on the demand band wagon. The refiners/distributors say they don’t set price and are only making a percent on the carry. Bottom line, all of these groups have a vested interest in one explanation of another.
Lets try to answer this in the near term - Putting aside longer term issues, as such dollar devaluation, peak oil, and global warming.
Was there an increase in demand porpotional to price increase, given the marginality of oil?
Was there at any time insufficient supply, before run up?
Did the rise in prices reduce demand, or even growth in demand?
Was the run in price, proportional to dollar slide against euro - given above factors?
What precentage of long interest are non-consumers or producers?
What percentage of consumer, distributor, and refiner purchases are stock piling to hedge against future increases vrs. near term needs?
May 22nd, 2008 at 3:59 pm
f moore
is that a name or a recommendation?
May 22nd, 2008 at 4:13 pm
406 Error?
May 22nd, 2008 at 4:13 pm
406 Error?
May 22nd, 2008 at 4:22 pm
Get ready to pay…
Low returns on state pension accounts bode ill for taxpayers
http://www.nj.com/news/index.ssf/2008/05/low_returns_on_state_pension_a.html
Ten months into the state’s fiscal year, investment returns on the account that bankrolls pensions for teachers and government workers are below 1 percent, managers of the account told state officials today.
…
“It’s still been a tough market,”
How much the fund gains or loses on Wall Street has expensive implications for taxpayers.
Experts who calculate how much the state needs to deposit in the fund each year assume the funds in the pension account will earn 8.25 percent in investment returns each year. If returns over five years average less than that, taxpayers must make up the difference.
As of April 30, the pension fund, which bankrolls about $6 billion in pension payments each year, held $81.5 billion. That is just short of the $82.2 billion that was on hand at the start of the budget year last July 1.
The lagging results are a stark turnaround for a pension fund that actuaries say is already underfunded by more than $28.3 billion.
May 22nd, 2008 at 4:46 pm
Oradell
SLD 820 BELLIS PKWY $579,000 8/1/2005
2740576 Withdrawn
ACT 820 BELLIS PKWY $599,000 10/5/2007
PCH 820 BELLIS PKWY $579,000 10/26/2007
W-U 820 BELLIS PKWY $579,000 2/2/2008
2804619 Sold
ACT 820 BELLIS PKWY $575,000 2/2/2008
PCH 820 BELLIS PKWY $549,000 3/13/2008
ACT* 820 BELLIS PKWY $549,000 3/31/2008
U/C 820 BELLIS PKWY $549,000 4/11/2008
SLD 820 BELLIS PKWY $535,000 5/22/2008
May 22nd, 2008 at 5:13 pm
Wyckoff
SLD 504 OLDWOODS RD $745,000 7/16/2007
Mortgage $596,000 7/16/2007
Deed $745,000 7/12/2007
Mortgage $68,000 12/4/2007
Mortgage $652,000 12/4/2007
2817935
ACT 504 OLDWOODS RD $874,000 5/1/2008
PCH 504 OLDWOODS RD $849,000 5/22/2008
No physical updates
A lot of praying after the “re-fi”… but no updates
May 22nd, 2008 at 5:18 pm
To the art buffs who love industrial NJ…really interesting NJ urban landscape pieces by Valeri Larko…
http://www.valerilarko.com/paintings.html
Here’s her bio:
Valeri Larko has had numerous solo and group exhibitions of her paintings throughout the New York metropolitan area. Notable solo exhibits include The New Jersey State Museum, Trenton, Safe-T-Gallery, Brooklyn, NY, Bronx River Art Center, Art Guild of Rahway, NJ, Johnson and Johnson Corporate Headquarters Gallery, New Brunswick, NJ and the Visual Arts Center of New Jersey, Summit, NJ. Notable group exhibits include The Jersey City Museum, The Morris Museum, The National Academy of Sciences in Washington, DC, Aljira, a center for contemporary Art, Newark NJ, William Paterson University, Wayne, NJ, MB Modern in New York City and the Bruton Street Gallery in London, England.
In the fall of 2000 Valeri Larko was awarded a major mural commission from New Jersey Transit and the New Jersey State Council on the arts for the Secaucus Transfer Station. She painted four murals for their north mezzanine. Completed in August of 2003, the Secaucus Transfer Station is the largest train station in the state of New Jersey. Valeri Larko was awarded another public art commission in 2004. This time by the city of Summit to create two Fragmented Glass Murals for the Bus Shelter located in front of the city’s train station. Other honors include grants from both the George Sugarman Foundation for painting and the New York Foundation for the Arts Strategic Opportunity Grant in 2006, an Artist in Residence Fellowship from the Newark Museum in 2002, a New Jersey State Council on the Arts Fellowship Grant in 1992 and several awards from the National Academy of Design in New York City. Ms. Larko’s work is in the collections of the Jersey City Museum, The Montclair Museum, The New Jersey State Museum, Johnson and Johnson, Rutgers University and a number of other significant organizations.
Educated at the Du Cret School of the Arts, Plainfield, NJ and the Arts Students League, New York City, In 2004, Valeri moved from her long time residence in Summit, NJ to an artist loft building in New Rochelle, New York. Presently she holds the position of Director of the Tomasulo Gallery at Union County College, Cranford, New Jersey, a position she has held since1996. She is also a painting instructor at the Visual Arts Center of New Jersey, Summit, NJ and teaches international landscape painting
May 22nd, 2008 at 5:50 pm
Interesting discussion of projected fall in previously “i-banking-esque” profits-per-partner at NYC Biglaw:
http://abovethelaw.com/2008/04/am_law_100_rankings.php
By this time next year there will be a lot less money in the city.
May 22nd, 2008 at 5:50 pm
Confused,
Thanks for the info. Seems attractive enough but wife hates splits and is focused on small CHCs. Looks like it needs major updating, and with a retiree, I can expect that.
Query whether you can walk to train/town/Salt brook sch. Seems like a hike when I look at it on satellite. Glad to hear about brook–was concerned when I saw how close it was. Also, tracks not that far away (but I suppose in a train town, you deal with train noise).
May 22nd, 2008 at 5:54 pm
[169] patient,
Surprised that Skadden wasn’t well ahead of the rest. That is telling b/c Skadden has a much lower ratio of partners to associates/counsel than other firms, so the PPP is typically much higher. Not to say that their year sucked, but I noticed that other firms were nipping at their heels, and if the ratios were less skewed, Skadden would not be on top.
May 22nd, 2008 at 5:57 pm
Nom - Skadden wasn’t tops in PPP. The chart at that link was as to gross revenue (although there was prose discussion of PPP).
May 22nd, 2008 at 6:03 pm
Here’s the flip-side on the legal employment issue:
http://abovethelaw.com/2008/05/post_5.php
May 22nd, 2008 at 6:07 pm
Since it’s still going:
See D!ck go to the FHA housing blog contest.
See D!ck vote for some whack blog like the Title Insurance Blog.
See D!ck cost grim some money.
See D!ck cry when he realizes he could have voted for njrereport.com
Don’t be a D!ck - VOTE GRIM!
http://www.fhamortgagecenter.com/contest/view.php?id=73
May 22nd, 2008 at 6:10 pm
#174 looks like a solid spanking.
May 22nd, 2008 at 6:10 pm
Low post volume today, eh? People on vaca?
May 22nd, 2008 at 6:13 pm
or looking for jobs
May 22nd, 2008 at 6:22 pm
Please vote if you haven’t yet, I think we may be falling behind. Only 9 days to go, and that Orlando blog is catching up!
http://www.fhamortgagecenter.com/contest/view.php?id=73
May 22nd, 2008 at 6:25 pm
There’s a tremendous opportunity before us, we shouldn’t be wasting time on distractions like ceo pay, big oil profits, etc.
I for one welcome peak oil. As a nation we’ve had over thirty years to create an alternative. If the only solution will be a market-driven one, and if it takes $5/gallon to get us there, then let’s get on with it.
Complaining about our dealer’s cashflow is not the solution if we are the oil addicts. It just makes us look more pathetic. No one has forced us to behave this way, so let’s grow up and face the problem.
Time to buck up courage and innovate. That’s what our country does best. Now, which way to the Betty Ford Clinic.
May 22nd, 2008 at 6:37 pm
Time to buck up courage and innovate.
I’m on it sir, I’ll have our boys in Bangalore on the line in just a few moments.
May 22nd, 2008 at 7:11 pm
I think it’s gonna take more than $5 a gallon to cause real pain. Don’t get me wrong, $5 a gallon will sting but real stimulation is going to come when we HAVE to carpool to get to work, or when we have to choose between gas or merchandise.
May 22nd, 2008 at 7:14 pm
By the way, has anyone noticed many gas stations are returning to the days of separate prices for cash vs. credit? Up to 10c a gallon difference.
Still cheaper to use the AMEX though, for the 5% cash back bonus.
May 22nd, 2008 at 7:26 pm
More problems for NJ, Taxpayer will have to pick up the slack. You all thought real estate taxes were high now, wait until this mess is over.
http://www.nj.com/news/index.ssf/2008/05/low_returns_on_state_pension_a.html
Jim
May 22nd, 2008 at 7:57 pm
hey kettle, looks like the IEA agrees with Shell’s CEO (from WSJ via Kevin Drum):
PEAK OIL WATCH….Why have oil prices doubled, doubled again, and then nearly doubled yet again over the past six years? Hedge fund speculation? A “risk premium” due to the Iraq war? Or genuine supply restrictions caused by the declining output of old oil fields?
I’ve long thought it was the latter — though I admit that the most recent doubling, which took place over a mere 12 months, looks so much like a bubble that it’s given me pause. Today, though, the Wall Street Journal reports that even the International Energy Agency is getting gloomy. In the past, they’ve simply projected demand and basically assumed that OPEC could keep up, but now they’ve decided to take a closer look at that assumption:
The decision to rigorously survey supply — instead of just demand, as in the past — reflects an increasing fear within the agency and elsewhere that oil-producing regions aren’t on track to meet future needs.
….The IEA’s pessimism over future supplies has been building for some time. Last summer, the agency warned that OPEC’s spare capacity could shrink “to minimal levels by 2012.” In November, it said its analysis of projects known to be in the works suggested that the world could face a shortfall by 2015 of as much as 12.5 million barrels a day, unless there was a sharp drop in expected demand. The current IEA work aims to tally the range of investments and projects under way to boost production from the fields in question to get a clearer sense of what to expect in production flows.
“This is very important, because the IEA is treated as the world’s only serious independent guardian of energy data and forecasts,” says Edward Morse, chief energy economist at Lehman Brothers. Examining the state of the world’s big oil fields could prod their owners into unaccustomed transparency, he says.
The IEA’s concern is with both the absolute condition of the world’s oil fields and the amount of investment being made in new projects. Either way, though, a shortfall of 12.5 million barrels is huge. If that’s an accurate assessment, prices are going to have to double another couple of times to bring demand into line with supply. $500 oil, anyone?
May 22nd, 2008 at 8:09 pm
patient
very few people realize the real implications of peak oil. the cost of gasoline is one of