Tue 27 May 2008
From Bloomberg:
S&P/Case-Shiller U.S. Home-Price Index Falls 14.4%
Home prices in 20 U.S. metropolitan areas fell in March by the most in at least seven years, pointing to weakness in the housing market that will constrain economic growth.
The S&P/Case-Shiller home-price index dropped 14.4 percent from a year earlier, more than forecast and the most since the figures were first published in 2001. The gauge has fallen every month since January 2007.
Prices continue to slide as record foreclosures put more homes on the market and stricter lending standards make it harder to get loans. Falling home values are slowing consumer spending, threatening to halt the six-year expansion.
“Many households are putting their home-buying plans on hold, given the expectations that the house price corrections will persist,” Celia Chen, an economist at Moody’s Economy.com in West Chester, Pennsylvania, said before the report. “The housing downturn remains in full swing.”
Prices dropped 2.2 percent in March from a month earlier, after a 2.6 percent decline in February, the report showed. The figures aren’t adjusted for seasonal effects, so economists prefer to focus on year-over-year changes instead of month-to- month variations.
From Bloomberg:
New-Home Sales in the U.S. Rose 3.3% to 526,000 Pace
New-home sales in the U.S. unexpectedly rose in April after readings for the prior month were revised down, signaling a worsening housing slump is still a threat to the economy.
Sales increased 3.3 percent to an annual pace of 526,000 from a 509,000 rate the prior month that was the lowest in 17 years, the Commerce Department said today in Washington. A separate report today showed home prices dropped in the first quarter by the most in at least 20 years.
Concern about declining home values and stricter loan rules are limiting demand and foreclosures are throwing even more properties on the market. Federal Reserve policy makers view the prospect of larger decreases in house prices and the effect that would have on financial institutions as a “key source” of risk to growth.
“There’s certainly more room for declines in home sales,” Adam York, an economist at Wachovia Corp. in Charlotte, North Carolina, said before the report. “People will be reluctant to buy, lenders will be reluctant to lend. We don’t think a leveling out in the housing market is coming anytime soon.”
May 27th, 2008 at 5:25 am
We’ve got competition!
http://www.fhamortgagecenter.com/contest/view.php?id=73
Hudson County Rules apply, vote early, vote often!
May 27th, 2008 at 5:26 am
From the NY Times:
Auto Industry Feels the Pain of Tight Credit
The auto industry is getting sideswiped by the housing crisis.
Auto lenders and banks, closing their wallets, have prevented hundreds of thousands of consumers from obtaining the financing for a car. Home equity loans, which had been used in at least one of every nine deals, when lenders were more generous, are no longer a source of easy money for many prospective buyers. And used-car prices have fallen nearly 6 percent as repossessed cars and gas-guzzling trucks and S.U.V.’s flood auction lots.
Those forces, on top of the softening economy, are putting enormous pressure on the American auto industry as it faces what may be its worst year in more than a decade. About 15 million vehicles are expected to be sold in 2008, down from 16.2 million last year, as sales reach the lowest levels since 1995, according to the marketing firm J. D. Power & Associates.
The impact on the broader American economy could be profound. Not only is the car a consumer’s biggest purchase after the home, but the auto industry remains one of nation’s most important economic engines. With less money available to bolster the industry’s growth, the businesses that support it are also facing the prospect of a sharp slowdown.
May 27th, 2008 at 5:27 am
From Bloomberg:
Libor Cracks Widen as Bankers Struggle With Reforms
“Even when the market knew UBS was massively exposed and Lloyds wasn’t, that was not reflected in Libor,” said Antony Broadbent, an independent banking consultant and former analyst at Sanford C. Bernstein & Co. in London.
Such discrepancies are creating a crisis of confidence in the London interbank offered rate published daily by the London- based BBA and taken from the contributions of UBS, Lloyds TSB and 14 other banks. Rates on corporate bonds, leveraged buyouts loans, derivatives and even U.S. mortgages are pegged to Libor.
The criticism has prompted the BBA to accelerate a review of the 24-year-old system of setting rates. The findings, due May 30, may determine how fast the banking industry recovers from the credit crisis.
…
“You’ve got to fix Libor,” said Tim Bond, head of asset allocation strategy in London at Barclays Capital, a unit of Barclays Plc, one of the banks that provide quotes to the BBA. “You don’t ever want to be in a situation like this again, where people can get away with quoting whatever rate they like. Real people get hurt like this.”
May 27th, 2008 at 5:29 am
From the WSJ:
U.S. Home Prices Lure Foreigners
By ALEKSANDRA TODOROVA
May 27, 2008; Page D6
Americans’ love affair with real estate may be cooling, but — thanks to falling home prices and the weak dollar — attention is heating up from another group of suitors: foreign investors.
Foreign buyers have long looked to certain U.S. markets, such as high-end properties in Manhattan or South Beach Miami, as investment opportunities.
These days, however, real-estate professionals report increased international interest in a much larger range of properties, from $60,000 single-family homes in South Florida’s inland neighborhoods to $1 million waterfront villas located just miles from the Canadian border in Washington State.
Almost one in five, or 18%, realtors surveyed by the National Association of Realtors last year said they sold homes to international clients between April 2006 and April 2007. More recent data aren’t yet available, but according to anecdotal evidence, those numbers continue to rise.
May 27th, 2008 at 5:35 am
From LoHud:
Condo developments stall in Port Chester
Crumbling houses still sit in the spaces on North Main Street where a developer once envisioned two dozen condominiums priced for middle-class professionals.
In late 2006, Nick DiFilippo, a Greenwich, Conn.-based real estate developer, proposed tearing down the dilapidated buildings at 417-425 and replacing them with 1,100 square-foot two-bedroom condos that would cost between $300,000 and $400,000.
“I pulled the plug because of the housing market,” DiFilippo said. “Just to borrow (money) to do the development is impossible. No one is loaning money.”
DiFilippo noted that even when developers can obtain a bank loan for a project in the county, they worry about being able to find buyers who can also afford the area’s high real estate taxes.
While DiFilippo has completely abandoned his project, other planned developments in the village have stagnated.
May 27th, 2008 at 5:35 am
From the WSJ:
UBS Warns Of Losses Tied To Real Estate
By STEVE GOLDSTEIN
May 27, 2008; Page C7
UBS AG warned it may have to record losses on non-U.S. real estate as it seeks nearly $16 billion from shareholders to repair a dented balance sheet.
In a prospectus for a share sale, UBS said economic and market conditions were volatile and challenging into the second quarter.
The Swiss bank last week said it plans to sell $22 billion of U.S. residential-mortgage-backed securities to BlackRock Inc. for $15 billion, with UBS providing an $11.25 billion loan to the fund manager in the process.
But as the subprime troubles cool down, others have heated up. UBS’s exposure to auction-rate securities, used mostly in municipal financing, increased to 11 billion Swiss francs ($10.7 billion) from six billion francs during the first quarter.
UBS said in the prospectus that its unprofitable positions in real-estate markets outside the U.S. “could increase.”
May 27th, 2008 at 5:39 am
From USA Today:
Skipped dues crunch home associations
A modest housing tract, set amid pecan trees here in suburban Phoenix, faces big problems: About 40% of its homeowners aren’t paying their association fees, leaving neighbors with higher assessments and reduced services.
“We’re looking at a very deep hole,” says Kent Miller, president of the Los Arbolitos Homeowners Association in Avondale. “I don’t know how we’re going to get out of it. We’ve put liens on all the (delinquent) properties, but it doesn’t do any good.”
It’s a scenario being repeated across the country. Delinquent fees at condo and homeowner associations have become an outgrowth of the mortgage crisis. Housing cooperatives, in a squeeze because of unpaid fees from struggling homeowners, are scraping to pay for landscaping, maintenance, pools, recreation centers and other amenities.
“It’s happening all over,” says Frank Rathbun, a spokesman for the Virginia-based Community Associations Institute. “It’s a national problem.”
The institute estimates there are 300,000 homeowner and condominium cooperatives nationwide, representing one in every five Americans. Assessments, which resemble self-imposed community taxes, total about $40 billion a year.
Though it’s not known just how many delinquencies have hit community associations nationally, the problem has escalated with a surge in foreclosures. The number of homes in the USA facing foreclosure in April jumped 65% over the same month in 2007, RealtyTrac reported this month.
To cope with unpaid fees, association leaders have tried to become creative. Many are negotiating discounted service contracts, running volunteer cleanups, cutting insurance coverage and attending seminars on how to collect money from members.
May 27th, 2008 at 5:48 am
“Skipped dues crunch home associations”
I wonder how many of these are “flipped” condos/townhouses?
That would be an interesting stat.
May 27th, 2008 at 5:55 am
When UBS & Citi collapse, I will be seen doing a dance in the street.
These 2 companies are crooked, their board members are morons, and I don’t feel sorry for them. They deserve everything they get.
crash and burn… what a sweet sound & a great smell.
;)
SAS
SAS
May 27th, 2008 at 5:56 am
From the AP:
End of US Housing Slump Likely to Be Long, Painful
Like spring flowers, the “For Sale” signs are sprouting in front yards all over the country. But anxious sellers are facing the most brutal environment in decades, with a slumping economy, falling home prices and rising mortgage foreclosures.
And even the faint promise of better days ahead might not come true, given all the headwinds the housing industry is facing at the moment.
“This is going to be another difficult spring,” said Mark Zandi, chief economist at Moody’s Economy.com. “I think we are at the beginning of the end of the housing downturn, but it is going to be a long and painful end.”
The devastation is certainly a far cry from the boom years from 2001 to 2005 when sales of new and existing homes were setting records for five straight years. During that time, home prices were soaring, luring thousands of investors into the market, hoping to buy homes and flip them for quick profit.
But since 2006, the country has been mired in a housing bust which, in many ways, is the worst since World War II. Construction is expected to drop to the slowest pace since the 1940s and prices are expected to decline by the largest amount since the Great Depression.
May 27th, 2008 at 5:59 am
“Bank failures to surge in coming years”
http://tinyurl.com/44n57d
SAS
May 27th, 2008 at 6:09 am
Is it me, or is this a doublespeak statement?
“I think we are at the beginning of the end of the housing downturn, but it is going to be a long and painful end.” said Mark Zandi, chief economist at Moody’s Economy.com
This guy must have went to the same mail to order school as what his name… its start w/ an O.
;)
In any case, housing will get alot worse.
more resets are on the way
so called “prime loans” are next…
better wipe that smile off your face
SAS
May 27th, 2008 at 6:11 am
Grim,
are you familiar with housing & loans during the “redline” days?
Do you think those days will come back?
I think they will.
Its getting interesting.
SAS
May 27th, 2008 at 6:15 am
For those not familiar with “Redline”,
bank would take a Red markers, draw circle/red lines, around different areas on your local maps, and whatever streets/addresses fell in that red circle, they didn’t get any credit/loans. End of story.
but during the RE boom, the redlines were gone, and anyone (even people without incomes) and everyone got RE loans.
and now look what you get..
SAS
May 27th, 2008 at 6:32 am
From the WSJ:
Home Sales Rise in Hard-Hit Areas
Buyers Snatch Up
Foreclosed Properties
After Big Price Cuts
By JAMES R. HAGERTY
May 27, 2008; Page A3
Home sales are rising in some U.S. metropolitan areas where lenders have slashed prices on foreclosed properties.
Generally, home sales remain weak. The National Association of Realtors reported last week that sales of previously occupied homes in April were down about 18% from the already depressed year-earlier level.
But sales are up sharply in some of the areas hit hardest by foreclosures and falling prices. They include: Las Vegas; Sacramento, Calif.; Fort Myers, Fla.; and inner-city Detroit.
Though Americans remain wary of further drops in housing prices, the data from these areas show that some buyers are trolling for bargains. Sellers “have moved into the acceptance mode” and are pricing homes more realistically, says Thomas Lawler, a housing economist in Leesburg, Va. “I think it is the first stage of good news for the market.”
Lenders’ inventory of foreclosed homes has steadily increased in the past couple of years and is believed to total around half a million homes. Many lenders initially were slow to slash prices, partly because they hoped to avoid huge losses. But more lenders have been capitulating as it becomes clear that delays often merely result in lower proceeds and higher costs for taxes, insurance and upkeep.
That doesn’t mean housing is poised for a quick recovery. In much of the U.S., there is still a huge glut of homes for sale, and foreclosures continue to dump more property on the market. Realtors reported that the number of single-family homes on the market in April was enough to last 10.7 months at the current sales rate, the highest since 1985. During the housing boom of the first half of this decade, the supply typically was four to five months.
May 27th, 2008 at 6:32 am
SAS
redlines were also ruled discriminatory by the courts. the banks may redline again, but they will be inc court for it. you probably know better then i, that the intent of many of the lending rules over the 90’s ( if i remember correctly, perhaps it was the 80’s) were to force banks to loan to low income high risk individuals when they normally wouldnt.
May 27th, 2008 at 6:46 am
is this where it starts???
Coin investors irked as U.S. curbs sales of ’silver eagles’
The government rationed food during World War II and gasoline in the 1970s. Now, it’s imposing quotas on another precious commodity: 2008 dollar coins known as silver eagles.
The coins, each containing about an ounce of silver, have become so popular among investors seeking alternatives to stocks and real estate that the U.S. Mint can’t make them fast enough. In March, the mint stopped taking orders for the bullion coins. Late last month, it began limiting how many coins its 13 authorized buyers worldwide are allowed to purchase.
http://www.baltimoresun.com/business/bal-coins0526,0,107845.story
May 27th, 2008 at 6:50 am
How can we reward savings when such a significant portion of our economy is based on consumer spending? A pro-savings policy would be anti-growth, recessionary perhaps.
Nothing new here, the Treasury slashed their annual limits prior to the start of the new year.
Annual Purchase Limit For Savings Bonds Set at $5,000
The annual limitation on purchases of United States Savings Bonds will be set at $5,000 per Social Security Number, effective January 1, 2008. The limit applies separately to Series EE and Series I savings bonds, and separately to bonds issued in paper or electronic form. Under the new rules, an individual can buy a maximum of $5,000 worth of electronic and paper bonds of each series in a single calendar year, or a total of $20,000, in single ownership form. If paper bonds are issued in co-ownership form, the limit applies to the first-named co-owner. All limits are based on the issue price of the securities.
The reduction from the $30,000 annual limit in effect for both series since 2003 was made to refocus the savings bond program on its original purpose of making these non-marketable Treasury securities available to individuals with relatively small sums to invest.
May 27th, 2008 at 7:31 am
From Bloomberg:
Wall Street Dismissals, Not as Bad as ‘01, Signal Worst to Come
It’s as if the entire workforce at Goldman Sachs Group Inc. and Morgan Stanley vanished in less than a year.
From Tokyo to London to New York, financial companies announced plans to shed more than 83,000 jobs since last July as revenue and compensation pools evaporated, according to figures compiled by Bloomberg. The dismissals range from 90 jobs, or 0.1 percent of the total, at London-based HBOS Plc to about 9,160 jobs, or 66 percent of the workforce, at New York-based Bear Stearns Cos., which is being acquired by JPMorgan Chase & Co.
The cuts add up to 3.3 percent of employees at the 28 firms eliminating positions. That’s significantly less than the market slump from 2000 to 2003, when 17 percent of banking and securities jobs in New York were wiped out, data from the Bureau of Labor Statistics show. Given the record-breaking losses of the past year — banks and brokers have taken $383 billion of writedowns and credit losses — some economic forecasters and industry veterans expect the number of dismissals to increase.
“My guess is there’s probably more to come,” said Sanford “Sandy” Weill, chairman emeritus of Citigroup Inc., who worked on Wall Street for 53 years, in a May 21 interview. “I think this is tougher” than the last market decline, Weill, 75, said.
May 27th, 2008 at 7:45 am
From the Boston Globe:
Mass. housing sales post big drop
Massachusetts home prices had their biggest monthly drop in two decades in April, the Warren Group reported today.
The median price of a single-family home in Massachusetts was $305,000 last month, down 12 percent from $346,750 in April 2007, said the Warren Group, the Boston-based publisher of real estate data and the publisher of Banker & Tradesman.
That drop was the steepest decline since the Warren Group began recording prices in 1987, the firm said.
The number of single-family homes sold in the state during April declined 12 percent to 3,215, from 3,654 a year ago, the Warren Group said.
The median price of a Massachusetts condominium fell 1.8 percent from $274,950 in April 2007 to $270,000 in April 2008, the Warren Group said.
On a volume basis, condo sales fell 22.2 percent in April from 2,204 last year to 1,714.
“In the early 1990s - during the last big housing slump - prices fell in 42 of 48 months,” Timothy Warren Jr., chief executive of the Warren Group, said in a statement. “Since March 2006, when prices first started to fall in this current slump, there have been price declines in 20 of the 26 months. But the early ’90s price declines weren’t as dramatic as the drops we’re seeing now. Let’s hope that these lower prices bring buyers back to the market so this slump will have a shorter duration than the 48 months we endured in the 1990s.”
May 27th, 2008 at 7:56 am
From last night re. ZILLOW:
A few days ago, someone asked what people thought of Zillows Zestimates. Here is my very recent experience.
A home that we had some cursory interest in at Bradley Beach has a current Zestimate of $536,500. The house is currently listed at $439,900. That is one heck of a percentage difference. That Zest must involve some 150 proof spirits, or some speed.
From my discussions with the RE agent, it would not surprise me to see the house go for $350,000. At the current price, the owners are taking a $100,000 haircut.
May 27th, 2008 at 8:41 am
Foreclose Tour in LI
If anyone sees foreclose tour in Hoboken, please let me know.
http://www.cnbc.com/id/24726372
May 27th, 2008 at 8:42 am
‘Sellers “have moved into the acceptance mode” and are pricing homes more realistically, says Thomas Lawler’
Not around these parks, people are still stubborn around here.
May 27th, 2008 at 8:49 am
Spent the long weekend at the Sandcastle on Long Beach Island at the Shore. Without question, it is the best B&B we’ve stayed at. The innkeeper is tremendous, and the stay was outstanding. Weather wasn’t awesome Saturday or Monday, but Sunday on the beach was sublime.
Saw a plot of land for $540,000 on the Bayside - it was maybe 30 yards from the Bay with a clear view. We’re tempted.
May 27th, 2008 at 8:55 am
# 5 “DiFilippo said. “…No one is loaning money.”
Pet peeve moment. What ever happened to the word lend? When one lends one makes a loan. “Friends, Romans, countrymen, lend (not loan) me your ears.” To paraphrase Yoda, “there is no loaning.”
May 27th, 2008 at 9:00 am
You know I am begining to miss the credit crisis. This commodity inflation and high oil prices is just so drawn out and boring. The credit crisis was exciting with chances to jump in and get 5% Munis and 9% investment grade bonds.
Plus why should people price realistic, my friend needs X to move, if she can’t get X she can’t move and she will stay in home. She hopes some idiot will overpay in a long shot and if not she will let listing expire and realtor got stuck with expense of trying to sell. Once death, divorce and dispair make people sell at a realistic price.
May 27th, 2008 at 9:03 am
#19 grim:“I think this is tougher” than the last market decline, Weill, 75, said.
Yeah Sandy? Well pret says it is not, so there.
May 27th, 2008 at 9:03 am
Builders are lowering prices from Sunday NY Times, but are expecting a turnaround.
Quote from Robert Toll.
“We’ve had five good years, from 1982 to 1987, and then we had three really bad years in ’88, ’89, ’90, followed by five tepid years from ’91 to ’95, followed by 10 great years,” he said. “And we now have had two and a half years of one of the worst markets.”
“I’ve seen this movie four or five times now, and I assure you this, too, shall pass.”
http://www.nytimes.com/2008/05/25/realestate/commercial/25sqft.html?ref=business
May 27th, 2008 at 9:04 am
From MarketWatch
Home prices fall 14.4% in past year, Case-Shiller says
The decline in U.S. home prices picked up speed in March, with prices down a record 14.4% in the past year for 20 key cities, according to the Case-Shiller home price index released Tuesday by Standard & Poor’s.
May 27th, 2008 at 9:05 am
From the Bond Buyer:
http://www.bondbuyer.com/article.html?id=20080523F2N4W0PW
Vallejo, Calif., Friday filed for Chapter 9 bankruptcy protections, becoming the largest municipality to seek protection from creditors in more than a decade.
May 27th, 2008 at 9:09 am
From MarketWatch
Home prices fell at record pace in first quarter: S&P
Prices of U.S. single-family homes plunged a record 14.1 percent in the first quarter from a year earlier, marking a pace five times faster than the last housing recession, according to the Standard & Poor’s/Case Shiller national home price index reported on Tuesday.
The S&P/Case Shiller composite index of 20 metropolitan areas fell 2.2 percent in March from February and plummeted 14.4 percent from March 2007.
Economists expected prices for the 20-city index to fall 2.0 percent on month and 14.0 percent from a year earlier, according to a median in a Reuters survey.
S&P said its composite index of 10 metropolitan areas declined 2.4 percent in March, for a 15.3 percent year-over-year drop.
May 27th, 2008 at 9:09 am
Oops, post 31 is from Reuters.
May 27th, 2008 at 9:09 am
# 12 “I think we are at the beginning of the end of the housing downturn, but it is going to be a long and painful end.” ”
This reminds me of watching from afar as a couple’s marriage falls apart. For a long time there is a refusal to acknowledge that it is going to end in a divorce and then when that realization finally hits it takes time to work through the process to the “long and painful end.” So, just because everyone and their mother now seems to realize that there is a real problem in the housing markets, there is no reason to believe that things will now turn around quickly.
The housing industry has lept out of the plane and pulled the ripcord but the chute has not deployed; we know how it will end, but there is a bit of distance to be covered before the bitter end.
May 27th, 2008 at 9:14 am
# 16 “the intent of many of the lending rules over the 90’s ( if i remember correctly, perhaps it was the 80’s) were to force banks to loan to low income high risk individuals when they normally wouldnt.”
And we see how well that worked out.
May 27th, 2008 at 9:18 am
# 20 “Let’s hope that these lower prices bring buyers back to the market so this slump will have a shorter duration than the 48 months we endured in the 1990s.”
Why? If assets are overpriced, the prices should drop. If the underlying basis for an increase in prices does not exist, why should we hope prices increase?
May 27th, 2008 at 9:22 am
From AP via Yahoo:
US home prices drop at sharpest rate in 20 years
A closely watched housing index shows U.S. home prices dropped at the sharpest rate in two decades during the first quarter.
The Standard & Poor’s/Case-Shiller said Tuesday its U.S. National Home Price index fell 14.1 percent in the first quarter compared with a year earlier, the lowest since its inception in 1988.
Its narrower indices also set record declines. The 20-city index tumbled 14.4 percent during the quarter, the lowest since that index was started in 2001. The 10-city index plunged 15.3 percent, a record in its 20-year history.
“There are very few silver linings that one can see in the data. Most of the nation appears to remain on a downward path,” said David Blitzer, chairman of S&P’s index committee.
May 27th, 2008 at 9:25 am
Han-ne, Hachi-gake, Niwari-biki.
(Half the price, then 20% off, again 20% off.)
May 27th, 2008 at 9:38 am
# 37 But how many people would say that 50% off, then another 20% off,and then another 20% off leaves one with just 10% of the original price, instead of 32% of the original?
May 27th, 2008 at 9:39 am
Calculated Risk has the data in chart form for those who prefer pictures
S&P Case-Shiller National Index off 6.7% in Q1 (from Q4)
May 27th, 2008 at 9:40 am
From Bloomberg:
S&P/Case-Shiller U.S. Home-Price Index Fell 14.4% in March
Home prices in 20 U.S. metropolitan areas fell in March by the most on record, pointing to continued weakness in the housing market that will further drag on the economy.
The S&P/Case-Shiller home-price index dropped 14.4 percent from a year earlier, more than forecast and the most since the figures were first published in 2001. The gauge has fallen every month since January 2007.
Prices continue to slide as record foreclosures put more homes on the market and stricter lending standards make it harder to get loans. Falling home values are slowing consumer spending, threatening to halt the six-year expansion.
“Many households are putting their home-buying plans on hold, given the expectations that the house price corrections will persist,” Celia Chen, an economist at Moody’s Economy.com in West Chester, Pennsylvania, said before the report. “The housing downturn remains in full swing.”
Prices dropped 2.2 percent in March from a month earlier, after a 2.6 percent decline in February, the report showed. The figures aren’t adjusted for seasonal effects, so economists prefer to focus on year-over-year changes instead of month-to- month variations.
The index was forecast to drop 14 percent following a 12.7 percent drop in February, according to the median estimate of 9 economists surveyed by Bloomberg News. Estimates ranged from declines of 12.9 percent to 15.1 percent.
May 27th, 2008 at 9:43 am
John (37),
Did you get that from the comments section of the MarketWatch story, “Home prices fall 14.4% in past year, Case-Shiller says”?
May 27th, 2008 at 9:44 am
Kettle,
Recent oil in ANWR report
http://www.eia.doe.gov/oiaf/servicerpt/anwr/index.html
May 27th, 2008 at 9:45 am
# 40 ““Many households are putting their home-buying plans on hold, given the expectations that the house price corrections will persist,” ”
All the more reason not to prolong things by trying to prop up prices through legislative action, no?
May 27th, 2008 at 9:48 am
An interesting look for Mozilo:
http://bp2.blogger.com/_wFWqWIH-WFU/SDZkRg1kz2I/AAAAAAAAEvs/RMF_-9DK_aI/s320/bus0e.jpg
May 27th, 2008 at 9:50 am
Re: Redlining
They are doing it in a much more subtle way these days. There are no red magic markers outling neighborhoods on maps in the lender’s conference rooms.
The “Declining Markets Zip Code” list is being used to force better Loan To Value ratios. Which is another way of saying….come up with more down payment money. Which has the effect of severely limiting the amount of loans that get funded.
So put away your grease pencils.
May 27th, 2008 at 9:54 am
Memorial Day Story
I was at the family GTG this weekend and one my relatives with a young family proclaimed that they were about to put there house on the market right after they are done with their bathroom remodel. Now they bought their place in Elizabeth in 2004 for $360,000. They plan on a FSBO listing at $625,000! They’re hoping to downsize into a place that will be fully paid off with their huge gain so they won’t have to worry about a mortgage payment once their 3rd kid shows up. This is why I stopped looking at FSBOs a long time ago. Dreamers.
May 27th, 2008 at 9:57 am
$625K in Elizabeth? Good luck. Not even in Elmora Hills will they get that.
May 27th, 2008 at 10:00 am
This month Fannie Mae dropped the Zip Code policy based upon pressure from Minority groups and the NAR, they also lowered the downpayments to of 3 percent to 5 percent.
There will be no redlining this time around, it is going to be a bust for everyone.
Batten down the hatches…….
May 27th, 2008 at 10:01 am
Oh my…..3 kids and they’re downsizing?? This could turn out all wrong. I wonder what their breakeven number is, based on the purchase price plus improvements.
May 27th, 2008 at 10:04 am
They’re in the Westminster area. The immediate surroundings are nice. I’d say they put 100K in max as the FIL does most of the work at cut rate labor. Apparently, there is a popular synagogue in walking distance that they believe will add a premium to their place.
May 27th, 2008 at 10:09 am
41, yep but I have heard that before. Japan called lots of bottoms in it’s RE slump but a lot of times you got 50% off and then a pause and then 20% off and then a pause. I think buying on dips has been working for over 25 years and people are used to it. But this time the bottom may drag on kind of like TMA Thornmburg stock. That thing would hit a bottom go sideways a few weeks and hit a new bottom and went sideways a few weeks, it suckered in a lot of people on those false bottoms. RE may do the same thing this time. Bottom line is when REO/Short Sales come up near me I go look, but I can’t even break even on the rental even with a 200K price cut. I have a lot of repairs and insurance headaches with owning a rental property so if the rent can’t even come close to covering mtg and taxes whet is the point might as well by a safe 3.5% muni and sit back and relax.
May 27th, 2008 at 10:09 am
Sign of a bottom?
April new single-family home sales rose 3.3 percent
http://biz.yahoo.com/rb/080527/usa_economy_newhomes.html?.v=1
May 27th, 2008 at 10:13 am
Fannie may have removed any reference to the “Zip List”, but you can be assured that the big players (Countrywide, et al) are referring to it on a daily basis.
May 27th, 2008 at 10:16 am
I live 5 minutes up North Ave, in North Elizabeth. Yes, Westminster (near North Ave & towards Hillside)is a nice area with a large Jewish community. Further down Westminster Avenue, however, are huge projects.
A quick search of their competition on Westminster Ave on the MLS has 1 listing. 607-611 Westminster Ave, 4Br 1.1Ba, DOM: 139, OLP $399,000, LP $379,000
May 27th, 2008 at 10:18 am
Frank (52),
Sign of a bottom?
No.
“…but they were down 42 percent from a year ago, which was the largest year-over-year drop in nearly 27 years, government data on Tuesday showed.”
May 27th, 2008 at 10:19 am
#51 John,
Exactly my point.
20% DP, Assume 80% occupancy, subrtact all expenses, minimum 4 family but prefer to start with six, 30 yr fixed rate, no section eight, in order to be worth looking at it it must produce a small positive cash flow assuming all of the above.
There needs to be a positive ROI immediately to compensate for my DP, risk, and time.
Use this formula and investment properties have been overpriced since 2003.
That’s why make money is a blog name only for the past three years.
May 27th, 2008 at 10:19 am
re:(53) Fiddy -
Don’t think for one second that the lenders especially the most egregious of them all Countywide is not out there still trying to game the system.
a 3% downpayment option sounds awfully like NO MONEY DOWN.
May 27th, 2008 at 10:20 am
From MarketWatch:
U.S. April new-home sales up 3.3% to 526,000 pace
U.S. April new-home sales first rise in six months
U.S. April new-home sales down 42% year-on-year
U.S. April new-home sales weakest in 26 years yr-on-yr
May 27th, 2008 at 10:22 am
From MarketWatch:
U.S. May consumer confidence below 59.5 expected
U.S. May consumer confidence at 16-year low
May 27th, 2008 at 10:22 am
From MarketWatch
U.S. May consumer confidence at 16-year low
U.S. consumer confidence extended its tumble in May to reach a 16-year-low, the Conference Board reported Tuesday, as inflation expectations reached a record high on rising gas prices. The May consumer confidence index fell to 57.2 from a reading for April that was revised up to 62.8 from a prior estimate of 62.3. Economists surveyed by MarketWatch had expected a May reading of 59.5. The percentage of consumers saying jobs are “hard to get” rose to 28.0% from 27.9% in April, while those claiming jobs are “plentiful” fell to 16.3% from 17.1%.
May 27th, 2008 at 10:26 am
Sean:
Oh yeah, that extra down payment money sounds like a Cover Your Azz vig.
And 3% down on a $400K purchase price is $12K. If they can’t come up with 12 large….then maybe they should stick to renting!
May 27th, 2008 at 10:26 am
From MarketWatch
U.S. April new-home sales rise for first time in six months
U.S. home sales rose 3.3% in April, the Commerce Department estimated Tuesday. The rise in new-home sales to a seasonally adjusted annual rate of 526,000 was in line with the expectations of economists surveyed by MarketWatch. Economists said the increase was not a signal of a rebound in home sales. New-home sales are down 42.0% compared with a year ago, the biggest drop since September 1981. The months’ supply of homes on the market fell slightly to 10.6 months from 11.1 in March. Median sales prices rose 9.1% to $246,100.
Emphasis added
May 27th, 2008 at 10:30 am
Is Lehman Brothers New Red-Headed Stepchild Of Financial Service?
http://www.minyanville.com/articles/MER-lehman-C-citigroup-bank-merrill/index/a/17304
May 27th, 2008 at 10:31 am
From MarketWatch (Audio)
Economist Joel Naroff: Housing Index indicates slump will last “an awful long time”
Joel Naroff, president of Naroff Economic Advisors and chief economist with Commerce Bank, tells Nancy Lyons that the latest S&P/Case Shiller Index showing a 14 percent yearly drop in home prices is a sign that the housing downturn will run “an awful long time.” He says it’s an extraordinarily large decline - the largest he’s ever seen. He predicts the housing slump will last through this year and maybe through the first half of next year. He says the increase in foreclosures is putting downward pressure on prices. He also says buyers are beginning to believe there’s still a long way to go before the bottom is hit, so they’re holding back on making offers on homes.
May 27th, 2008 at 10:42 am
Grim #18 - Best part about I-Bonds is the fixed component went to 0% in the last adjustment on 5/1/08. (Sarcasm Off) From the Treasury Direct Website
“I Bond Earnings Rate 4.84%, Fixed Rate 0.00%
The earnings rate for Series I Savings Bonds is a combination of a fixed rate, which applies for the life of the bond, and the semiannual inflation rate. The 4.84% earnings rate for I bonds bought from May through October 2008 will apply for their first six months after issue. The earnings rate combines a 0.00% fixed rate of return with the 4.84% annualized rate of inflation as measured by the Consumer Price Index for all Urban Consumers (CPI-U). The fixed rate applies for the 30-year life of I bonds purchased during this six-month period. The CPI-U increased from 208.490 to 213.528 from September 2007 through March 2008, a six-month increase of 2.42%.”
May 27th, 2008 at 10:44 am
3% is nothing down. Most banks use realtors to sell home when they take it back and most homeowners use realtors to sell. 3% down barely covers transaction costs on a FSBO and for a realtor sale it is a good loss. Anything under 10% down is really zero down, if you have to sell right away with a realtor. Banks are foolish to give any loan for less than 20% down that they can’t sell immediately to fannie or freddite unless fees and rates are skyhigh. Hence the problem, banks are accused of redlining or targeting minorities if they jack fees or charge high rates and if they don’t provide mortgages to communities with high risk people they are redlining.
Housing policy is like saying everyone deserves a brand new cadilac and everyone deserves one regardless of if they have the downpayment or could pay the loan back. That sounds crazy but that is how we gave housing loans for the last ten years.
May 27th, 2008 at 10:53 am
Anyone know what the original March sales # was? Just curious if they got a 3.3% gain by revising March down by 3.3%.
May 27th, 2008 at 11:01 am
Okay, I need a computer savy individual to tell me what I need to do in order to vote for this site again.
I keep getting “You have already voted for this site”.
I tried deleting temporary internet files, cookies and form data within IE, but that’s no help.
May 27th, 2008 at 11:02 am
# 58 “U.S. April new-home sales up 3.3% to 526,000 pace
U.S. April new-home sales first rise in six months
”
Any data on the number/% of these sales are builders slashing prices to clear-out inventory and lessen exposure to further declines?
May 27th, 2008 at 11:04 am
# 64 “He also says buyers are beginning to believe there’s still a long way to go before the bottom is hit, so they’re holding back on making offers on homes.”
We have finally hit the Homer Simpson moment: Doh!
May 27th, 2008 at 11:12 am
Paramus
2432322 Sold (Zero down…)
SLD 800 COTTONWOOD CT $630,000 6/24/2005
COMPLETELY REMODELED. GENEROUSLY USE OF MARBLE AND GRANITE. BRAND NEW KITCHEN WITH GRANITE COUNTERTOP, STAINLESS STEEL APPLIANCES AND MARBLE FLOOR. ALL BATHS ARE MARBLE. HUGE NEW DRIVEWAY, NEW ROOF, NEW EXTERIOR
2618197 Withdrawn
ACT 800 COTTONWOOD CT $929,000 5/9/2006
PCH 800 COTTONWOOD CT $879,000 6/6/2006
W-U 800 COTTONWOOD CT $879,000 10/15/2006
2643846 Withdrawn (New broker/agent)
ACT 800 COTTONWOOD CT $780,000 11/12/2006
PCH 800 COTTONWOOD CT $792,000 1/2/2007
PCH 800 COTTONWOOD CT $782,000 5/7/2007
PCH 800 COTTONWOOD CT $769,900 7/30/2007
W-T 800 COTTONWOOD CT $769,900 9/30/2007
2739994 Withdrawn (New broker/agent)
ACT 800 COTTONWOOD CT $729,000 10/1/2007
ACT* 800 COTTONWOOD CT $729,000 3/12/2008
U/C 800 COTTONWOOD CT $729,000 3/21/2008
W-U 800 COTTONWOOD CT $729,000 5/27/2008
2821360 Active
ACT 800 COTTONWOOD CT $649,000 5/27/2008
May 27th, 2008 at 11:17 am
#62 Rich:Median sales prices rose 9.1% to $246,100.
And of course the all is well crowd will be focusing on this number.
May 27th, 2008 at 11:22 am
#68,
Re-start your cable modem to change the IP address or use a different firewall.
May 27th, 2008 at 11:23 am
can someone post past sales information on
2476348?
…thanks in advance.
May 27th, 2008 at 11:28 am
Haworth
2531279 Sold
SLD 206 PARK ST $734,500 6/29/2006
2725051 Withdrawn
ACT 206 PARK ST $775,000 6/19/2007
W-T 206 PARK ST $775,000 7/9/2007
2805758 Sold
ACT 206 PARK ST $599,000 2/11/2008
PCH 206 PARK ST $579,000 3/4/2008
ACT* 206 PARK ST $579,000 4/16/2008
U/C 206 PARK ST $579,000 4/25/2008
SLD 206 PARK ST $525,000 5/23/2008
May 27th, 2008 at 11:30 am
12 sas
“Is it me, or is this a doublespeak statement?
“I think we are at the beginning of the end of the housing downturn, but it is going to be a long and painful end.” said Mark Zandi, chief economist at Moody’s Economy.com”
That’s the best example of doublespeak I’ve seen in awhile, SAS. Lordy!! The end of the housing downturn is going to be long and painful? Maybe if the downturn never ends it’ll be less painful? If the end of a downturn is the so long and painful that nobody notices it, is it really the end?
May 27th, 2008 at 11:31 am
To answer my own question, shamelessly stolen from CR:
“Now look at this year’s figures. Last month’s press release showed actual sales in March of 51K. This month’s press release shows actual sales in April of 47K. In percentage terms, that is almost exactly the same as last year’s March to April decline from 108K to 100K. If last year’s factors had been used, this would have translated to a decline month-over-month in seasonally adjusted sales of about (2.6)%. However, actual March sales were revised downward this month to 49K, and as noted, the seasonal adjustment factors were also changed, leading to the supposed 3.3% increase.”
May 27th, 2008 at 11:33 am
I was a little busy this weekend, are we still in recession? The memorial day party I was invited to, still had the hired help serving the drinks and the german ragtops and top of the line SUVs lined up the driveway.
The only sign of recession I saw was at BJs they are checking membership cards on the way in and your cart vs. your receipt on the way out as their has been a big increase in shoplifting.
May 27th, 2008 at 11:34 am
#71 think it’s not selling because it’s next to a huge cemetery?
May 27th, 2008 at 11:37 am
Re 76 - He is talking about Capitulation. We are getting near Capitulation time. Home sellers are like fresh meat in prision. You go as long as possible without getting screwed but eventually your going to get it.
First you get the Liar;s Loan and then you get the Liar’s Bone!!! As soon as the Liar’s bend over for their boning the sooner we will find a bottom. Or in this case the Liar’s bottom.
May 27th, 2008 at 11:40 am
25
you are referring to the verbing of nouns. My favorite is the LIRR announcement that “only the first five cars will platform at St. James” (or wherever it is).
I imagine grade school kids in Europe conjugating the verb “to platform”.
May 27th, 2008 at 11:43 am
“Let’s hope that these lower prices bring buyers back to the market so this slump will have a shorter duration than the 48 months we endured in the 1990s.”
Let’s not and say we did.
May 27th, 2008 at 11:44 am
jlx (79),
Compared to homes on Livingston Ct (which are all occupied) it is not near the cemetary. There is a very large stand of trees and brush (about 250′) that block the view of the cemetary as well.
It’s the market, not the headstones.
May 27th, 2008 at 11:47 am
probably posted already, but:
“According to its report, one investment bank had a contract with New Century, a leading issuer of subprime debt, that it would reject no more than 2.5 percent of its loans. Of course, such a contract would be an invitation to submit bad loans.”
http://www.prospect.org/csnc/blogs/beat_the_press_archive?month=05&year=2008&base_name=npr_nails_perps_in_subprime_cr#106697
(dean baker)
May 27th, 2008 at 11:49 am
Is there a further breakdown by metro area for the 14.4% decline? Where would a 14.4% decline leave northern NJ prices…at 2006 prices?
May 27th, 2008 at 11:49 am
Here is a REAL housing crisis, from a BBC e-mail alert, wheras our “crisis” is nothing more than the free market flushing out bad practices:
Aftershocks hit an area of China devastated by this month’s earthquake, causing more than 420,000 houses to collapse, state-run agency says.
For more details: http://www.bbc.co.uk/news
May 27th, 2008 at 11:50 am
#75 rich: A 200k+ loss, OUCH, and in Haworth no less.
May 27th, 2008 at 11:50 am
A cemetary in the backyard is very useful if you want to wait out a down market.
May 27th, 2008 at 11:51 am
42 hehehehe
Thanks for the link.
“The opening of ANWR is projected to have its largest oil price reduction impacts as follows: a reduction in low-sulfur, light crude oil prices of $0.41 per barrel (2006 dollars) in 2026 for the low oil resource case, $0.75 per barrel in 2025 for the mean oil resource case, and $1.44 per barrel in 2027 for the high oil resource case, relative to the reference case.”
May 27th, 2008 at 11:53 am
# 88 They should at least be quiet neighbors.
May 27th, 2008 at 11:55 am
Cemetary means quiet neighbors and no future construction. Some might view cemetaries as undesirable as one young mother said “it would frighten her children”
so in addition to shielding her kids from the poor, they will also be shielded from the deseased.
May 27th, 2008 at 12:02 pm
China is having a huge crisis right now and the US is barely thinking about it. But if you go back to 9/11, our war, our trade imbalance, how they artifically manipulated their currency values, our complaints about human rights etc., China has never really cared about any of our problems. I think given England was their for us I would care more about their problems. Ok I know it is wrong, but I don’t see this as a Katrina or 9/11 even though tons of people died in China.
May 27th, 2008 at 12:03 pm
Plus you can make bongs out of their skulls.
May 27th, 2008 at 12:03 pm
New York area only went down 7.4%
http://www2.standardandpoors.com/spf/pdf/index/CSHomePrice_Release_052703.pdf
Atlanta -6.5 percent
Boston -5.9 percent
Charlotte 0.8 percent
Chicago -10.0 percent
Cleveland -9.5 percent
Dallas -3.3 percent
Denver -5.0 percent
Detroit -17.9 percent
Las Vegas -25.9 percent
Los Angeles -21.7 percent
Miami -24.6 percent
Minneapolis -14.1 percent
New York -7.4 percent
Phoenix -23.0 percent
Portland -4.0 percent
San Diego -20.5 percent
San Francisco -20.2 percent
Seattle -4.4 percent
Tampa -19.6 percent
Washington -14.7 percent
May 27th, 2008 at 12:06 pm
This morning, my middle-school-aged daughter was reading the newspaper and came across an article in which a “distressed” homeowner was bemoaning the fact that her interest rate jumped from something like 5% to 12% and her payment also jumped considerably. My daughter tossed the parer down and in that tone of voice that only middle-school-students can do so well said:
“Oh, yea! Right! Like the bank forced her to borrow the money. Give me a break. Hellooooo? Didn’t you read what you were signing?”
May 27th, 2008 at 12:07 pm
# 93 Pumpkins and squash are more environmentally friendly.
May 27th, 2008 at 12:15 pm
I was beaching it out on the east end of LI this weekend and noticed a boat load of For Sale signs along Dune Road (as well as Westhampton and Remsenburg). I’ve never seen it this bad before. My sister has been trying to sell her house in Remsenburg for over a year now. Usually houses in this town sell very quickly.
May 27th, 2008 at 12:23 pm
[96] Shore,
sounds like you are bringing her up right!
May 27th, 2008 at 12:28 pm
I am looking for a suggestion for a location for a beach house that meets the following criteria:
1) Overlooks the ocean
2) Sandy Beach
3) House sits at an elevation of 20 feet above mean high tide level (or even higher)
4) Reasonable access to grocery stores and other amenities (without requiring a four-wheel-drive vecicle)
5) A well-developed dune structure or bluff preferred
6) Traditional beach home ambiance (not high rise condos, cookie-cutter townhouses, or McMansions).
We have been looking at various places from Miami north but are not finding what we want. We thought we had in the Outer Banks, but the errosion issue there is unsettling (beach losses of between 2 and 15 feet per year). If anyone has ideas about towns that might meet our requirements, we would appreciate your recomendation(s).
May 27th, 2008 at 12:30 pm
# 98 She is a very caring and empathetic person, but she GETS it.
May 27th, 2008 at 12:39 pm
“Aftershocks hit an area of China devastated by this month’s earthquake, causing more than 420,000 houses to collapse”
time to invest in Chinese home-builders?
May 27th, 2008 at 12:40 pm
Related to folks who lost homes during WWII:
http://www.cato.org/pub_display.php?pub_id=9426
Every American knows that Dec. 7, 1941 — the date that Japanese planes attacked the U.S. naval base at Pearl Harbor — is “a date which will live in infamy.” But few Americans remember a second infamous anniversary that is just around the corner: May 30.
[snip]
May 27th, 2008 at 12:41 pm
Shore guy,
http://tinyurl.com/3wg23x
Probably matches your criteria. 3 hour drive from North Jersey without traffic.
May 27th, 2008 at 12:41 pm
# 101 It does raise the question of whether building material supply will be affected. Perhaps the downturn in our housing boom will leave some slack in the system, so that any uptick in Chinese demand will not cause shortages.
May 27th, 2008 at 12:46 pm
Tax law email chain just devolved into a discussion (among NYers) of how awful it would be to have to live in New Jersey, and that being made to live in NJ should constitute constructive termination.
What’s old is new.
May 27th, 2008 at 12:49 pm
# 103 We had not even considered RI, for no particular reason other than it just did not come to mind. Mrs. Shore has a friend with a home down there, old, old money, that came with a trust fund for its maint. and upkeep. It must be nice to have childless wealthy uncles.
The street you suggested looks nice, ableit close to the water treatment plant. I need to check the topo maps to check the elevation of the RI shore communities.
As far as location goes, anyplace along the eastern seaboard works for us as we have the ability to telecommute much of the time. The key thing is being able to wake up and stroll the beach at 6 a.m. and then to be able to do it again in the evening. Sitting on the porch at night listening to the surf is another big thing with us. Of course, not being washed away in a garden-variery Nor’Easter is a big plus too.
May 27th, 2008 at 12:49 pm
99:
Block Island. Ferry in a second (beater) vehicle for the season, and the rest is easy. Domino’s delivers from Pt. Judith — by plane. Biggest social ill (according to the locals): Moped-ers.
Another possibility: York Beach, ME, near t he south border. An added plus to these communities: Understatement is never out of style. One room or one-hundred, it’s a “cottage.” You can be there, ready to tuck into a lobster roll in under six hours (from Exit 82 on GSP).
May 27th, 2008 at 12:49 pm
Variety, even
May 27th, 2008 at 12:54 pm
pretorius Says:
May 27th, 2008 at 12:41 pm
Shore guy,
Probably matches your criteria. 3 hour drive from North Jersey without traffic.
pret: no…NE Thruway is a disaster…I’d rather drive on the LIE, at least it is straight…
May 27th, 2008 at 12:56 pm
Now THIS looks like a shore house (Block Island):
http://www.realtor.com/search/listingdetail.aspx?ctid=10491&typ=7&sid=80749ad258c84b329b45d00bb2b78496&pg=1&lid=1089336081&lsn=2&srcnt=6#Detail
May 27th, 2008 at 12:59 pm
The train can be an alternative to the LIE, too. We are concerned about the NY State debt and the state’s propensity to tax. As much as we like many of the LI beach communities, I don’t think we will pick up anything out there.
May 27th, 2008 at 1:01 pm
Anyone need a beachfront family compound?
http://www.realtor.com/search/listingdetail.aspx?ctid=62127&ml=3&typ=7&sid=6d5ef3603a3544aba93db440422bb0db&pg=2&lid=1092643542&lsn=11&srcnt=11#Detail
May 27th, 2008 at 1:07 pm
Does anyone remember when one could find homes like this in Jersey?
http://www.realtor.com/search/listingdetail.aspx?ctid=46539&ml=3&typ=1&ofbm=1100&sid=e7a0ca741d9f4afca392cced7e516b06&pg=2&lid=1088359912&lsn=18&srcnt=235#Detail
May 27th, 2008 at 1:24 pm
http://www.mlsli.com/unidetailsredo.CFM?MLNum=1990481&typeprop=1&start=21&rpp=10
Now this is a real beachfront home for 750K
May 27th, 2008 at 1:25 pm
From MarketWatch
Justice Dept., realtors to settle antitrust case: report
The Justice Department and the National Association of Realtors are likely to settle an antitrust lawsuit over the posting of online real estate listings, The Wall Street Journal reported Tuesday on its Web site, citing lawyers close to the case. The suit against the realtor association charged that its bylaws undercut Internet-based realtors when association members withheld online listings. The Justice Department plans a Tuesday afternoon press conference.
May 27th, 2008 at 1:28 pm
From the WSJ:
Justice Department and Realtors
Are Likely to Settle Antitrust Suit
By JAMES R. HAGERTY
May 27, 2008 1:14 p.m.
The Justice Department appears close to settling a major antitrust lawsuit against the National Association of Realtors over the use of online real estate listings, lawyers close to the case said.
The suit, filed in a Chicago federal court in 2005, targeted the trade group’s bylaws, which let members withhold online listings from other brokers in a local market. The government charged that the rules illegally could restrict discounting and disadvantage a new breed of Internet-based competitors.
Last week, lawyers for the Justice Department and the Realtors told U.S. District Judge Matthew Kennelly that they were in serious negotiations on a possible settlement that would avert a trial scheduled to start July 7.
The department plans a press conference at 2 p.m. Tuesday with a deputy assistant attorney general, Deborah Garza. A spokeswoman for the government said she could neither confirm nor deny the subject of the announcement. An official with the Realtors association also declined to comment.
May 27th, 2008 at 1:35 pm
From MarketWatch
Yellen: Fed lending to investment banks to end at some point
Yellen says oil, food price hikes are driven by fundamentals
Yellen sees minimal risk from Fed holding mortgages
From Bloomberg
Fed’s Yellen Says Rates Appropriate to Spur Growth
Federal Reserve Bank of San Francisco President Janet Yellen said the central bank’s interest-rate stance is “appropriate” for reviving economic growth in 2008.
Rate cuts and more than $100 billion in federal tax rebates “should be sufficient to promote a gradual step up to moderate economic growth later this year,” Yellen said today in a speech to a conference in San Francisco.
Yellen’s remarks, similar to those she made on May 13, support the view the Fed will pause after reducing the main interest rate seven times since September, including a cut last month by a quarter-point to 2 percent. Policy makers are trying to reverse a contraction in credit and revive economic growth.
Reduced bank lending, falling housing values and rising commodity prices are impeding U.S. consumer spending, she said in a speech at the Northern California Regional Financial Planning Conference. That has “combined to weigh heavily on demand.”
…
The Fed can’t be “complacent about inflation,” Yellen said. Recent measures of price expectations “highlight the risk that our attempts to deal with problems in the real economy could lead to higher inflation expectations and an erosion of our credibility,” she said.
…
“I am encouraged by what I see in the economy and financial markets,” Yellen said in response to a question after the speech. The interest-rate reductions and other efforts by the Fed have reduced the chances that curtailed bank lending will trigger a downward spiral in consumer spending, asset values and economic growth.
Central bank actions have “really minimized the odds of that type of dark scenario,” she said.
Yellen acknowledged the Fed has assumed more risk by accepting mortgage bonds as collateral for loans.
“There are risks in doing this,” she said. Still, “the exposure to credit risk is quite minimal.”
May 27th, 2008 at 1:38 pm
From MarketWatch
Yellen sees less risk of darkest scenario for U.S. economy
It appears the U.S. economy has stepped back from the abyss, according to San Francisco Fed President Janet Yellen on Tuesday. For months, Fed officials have fretted, mostly behind closed-doors, that the economy might fall into a vicious downward spiral, where falling asset prices forced banks to cut back lending with led to lower growth which led to falling asset prices and the repeat of the circle. Fed officials called this an “adverse feedback loop.” In a breakfast speech on the economic outlook, Yellen said that the recent improvements in financial markets have lowered the odds of this loop. “[I] am encouraged by what I’ve seen, both from the economy and financial markets, to believe we’re really minimized the odds of that dark scenario,” Yellen said.
Whew!
May 27th, 2008 at 1:48 pm
Whew is right, Rich. Thank heavens.
I just spent the last twenty minutes eating my peas and looking at one bedroom shacks on Point Judith. Ahhh…childhood trips to one bedroom cottages without toilets and really rocky beaches.
Guess it’s O.K. to go back and look at oceanfront on LBI.
Thanks, Janet.
May 27th, 2008 at 1:50 pm
John,
I get an error opening that URL.
Also, Westerly RI seems to have some nice beachfront properties. This one reminds me of East Avenue in Bay Head:
http://www.realtor.com/search/listingdetail.aspx?cmid=1079099%2c1016461%2c1016483&ml=3&bd=4&bth=3&typ=1&ofbm=1100&sid=dced4675fd394582b6c383d566b08809&pg=4&lid=1079652685&lsn=34&srcnt=415#Detail
May 27th, 2008 at 2:03 pm
But… but…
From Bloomberg
HSBC’s U.S. Mortgage Business May Incur More Losses
HSBC Holdings Plc, Europe’s biggest bank by market value, may post more losses at its home-loan business in the U.S., Chief Executive Officer Michael Geoghegan told shareholders in Hong Kong today.
“I believe we have further losses to make,” Geoghegan said. “We are not convinced yet the worst is over.”
…
HSBC, which became one of the largest U.S. lenders to subprime borrowers with the acquisition of Household International Inc. in 2003, has posted $19.5 billion in writedowns and losses since the beginning of last year. UBS AG, the European bank hit hardest by the U.S. subprime contagion said last week, it may face more losses from mortgage securities.
…
London-based HSBC has closed 400 branches in the U.S., narrowing its network to 1,000, said Geoghegan. The bank cut 2,000 jobs in the first quarter as earnings declined in the U.S.
Geoghegan said he was concerned the U.S. economy may slip into a recession and said higher interest rates may offset inflationary pressure.
May 27th, 2008 at 2:03 pm
[120] shore,
and you have the benefit of being near Newport, so ‘Patient can visit for the Newport Jazz Festival.
Make sure there is enough room for lil patients.
May 27th, 2008 at 2:07 pm
Shore Guy,
Westerly is a great choice. Great beaches and relatively sleepy town compared to places like Newport, MV, etc.
If you’re willing to drive another hr, Little Compton, RI and Westport, MA are also worth checking out. These towns aren’t big tourist draws but are great examples of New England beach towns.
May 27th, 2008 at 2:08 pm
Ok, Midwest kid throwing my $.02 in here on waterfront property/towns. Pentwater, MI on Lake Michigan. I used to go to here in the summers. Neat little downtown. Very similar to Maine/NE village. Lot more bang for your buck.
http://www.realtor.com/search/listingdetail.aspx?ctid=25666&mnp=24&mxp=33&bd=5&bth=4&typ=1&sid=e06405f82996405d9f3c61cbb6e7938e&pg=2&lid=1091214259&lsn=20&srcnt=21#Detail
JM
May 27th, 2008 at 2:12 pm
Pentwater Chamber of Commerce site
http://www.pentwater.org/
May 27th, 2008 at 2:15 pm
From Bloomberg
Case Says More Foreclosure Auctions May Hasten Housing Comeback
Karl Case, co-founder of a home-price index that bears his name, said more auctions of foreclosed properties are helping remove inventory from the housing market and may lead to a faster recovery.
“I think we’re going to see some signs of life in the next few months,” Case, an economics professor at Wellesley College in Wellesley, Massachusetts, said in an interview with Bloomberg Radio. “The market is beginning to clear somewhat. There is some good news in this.”
…
Case said the quickening pace of home-price declines reflected mounting auction sales along with traditional transactions. “Banks don’t wait around,” he said. “They put it on the market and get rid of it. That means prices adjust more rapidly.”
…
U.S. foreclosure filings climbed 65 percent and bank seizures more than doubled in April from a year earlier as rates on adjustable mortgages increased and vacated homes added to a glut of unsold properties, RealtyTrac Inc. said May 14.
Inventories in April totaled 4.55 million homes for resale, the second-highest level on record, with the month’s supply amounting to 11.2 months, the highest ever, the National Association of Realtors said last week. Sales were down 18 percent from a year earlier and 33 percent lower than their record pace in September 2005.
Case said housing starts, which fell to a 954,000 annual pace in March, might also be signaling a turnaround in the market. He said starts “go below a million every single time, and then they come back.”
May 27th, 2008 at 2:17 pm
another couple of suggestions further north: Rye, NH and Old Orchard Beach, ME (this one reminds me of NJ beaches a lot)
May 27th, 2008 at 2:22 pm
We loke sleepy and charming, especially with a nice village. In South Florida, I like the beachfront at Delray Beach, as opposed to Lauderdale, Boca, etc.
As far as location goes, the ideal location is south, so as to extend the season and to allow snowbirding as we get older but I will look at these other places as well
May 27th, 2008 at 2:29 pm
Make sure you have room for your beer pong table
May 27th, 2008 at 2:34 pm
I would actually pay money to watch a retiree beer pong tourney
May 27th, 2008 at 2:36 pm
A perfect example of excessive gleefulness at the misfortune of others. A perfect example of an unpatriotic wish for our major companies to go under. I don’t understand how someone who has benefited so much from this country can sit up here and be so full of mirth at the prospect of financial disaster.
Let’s see you go the Iran and do the same thing and see how long you last.
sas Says:
May 27th, 2008 at 5:55 am
When UBS & Citi collapse, I will be seen doing a dance in the street.
These 2 companies are crooked, their board members are morons, and I don’t feel sorry for them. They deserve everything they get.
crash and burn… what a sweet sound & a great smell.
;)
SAS
SAS
May 27th, 2008 at 2:43 pm
Hey,
It’s da shore, it’s all beer pong all da time
May 27th, 2008 at 2:47 pm
# 125 It looks lovely but I don’t see us going out that direction. If gas or airlines get out of hand, at least north and south, one can always take the train and keep a car in a garage close to the station to get back and forth from the house. Train service to the midwest is always a step from the chopping block.
On a nother note, what is a good place to eat in the land of the Chicken Hawk? I may need to be in Lawrence in a few days.
May 27th, 2008 at 2:48 pm
# 131 Re, the poorly run ones should go under, in order to make the economy stronger.
May 27th, 2008 at 2:58 pm
#126 rich: We could be at the bottom as far as inventory, but as far as prices, there is much more room to go.
May 27th, 2008 at 3:03 pm
122 Nom
heh!
Speaking of that OT topic, have any of you guys ever been to the Crawfish Festival at the Sussex Fairgrounds?
http://www.crawfishfest.com/
It’s next weekend.
May 27th, 2008 at 3:07 pm
This article is such a crock of whiny b.s. & chock full of quotes to ring someone’s neck screaming that one has nothing to do with the other or something along the lines of where is
creditconstitution:““No one asked them for their credit score when we asked them to fight for us.” “
- Paul Sullivan, executive director of Veterans for Common Sense, a Washington-based advocacy group started in 2002 by Iraq and Afghanistan War veterans.
Source:
http://www.bloomberg.com/apps/news?pid=20601109&sid=awj2TMDLnwsU&refer=exclusive
May 27th, 2008 at 3:10 pm
#133 Shore Guy-
Keep in mind I was a poor student when I was living there so I was more interested in inexpensive drinking and cheap food (Raman!)
But, I did go here and I think they’re still very good. Excellent beer selection. Then, you can just wander on Massachusetts street.
The Free State Brewing co.
http://www.freestatebrewing.com/index.html
You also should take a walk on campus and stop by Allen Fieldhouse.
JM
May 27th, 2008 at 3:13 pm
131 reinvestor101
May 27th, 2008 at 3:15 pm
Allen Fieldhouse is an interesting building. I was in if a couple of times, including for a track meet. The football stadium was old as dirt, but the field was good.
I will be sure to check out Mass st.
May 27th, 2008 at 3:17 pm
131 reinvestor101
“Let’s see you go the Iran and do the same thing and see how long you last. ”
I hope that you are aware that SAS has actually spent time in exotic locales with a gun in his hand, fighting for the rights of patriotic capitalist Americans to go about their business (you know, the sorts of people who, unlike you, aren’t pinko commies with your hands out trying to get the rest of the taxpaying community to bail you out of the whatever situation your latest round of economic stupidity or all-out gambling has landed you in).
May 27th, 2008 at 3:21 pm
So, our economy is driven by consumer spending. And, energy costs are sucking $ out of family budgets. And, consumer confidence has dropped to an 18-year low. What does Wall Street do? It goes up 76 points.
May 27th, 2008 at 3:22 pm
Well, on that note. It is time to go fire someone. Have a happy day everyone.
May 27th, 2008 at 3:23 pm
Orchard Beach in the Bronx is a lovely place for a vacation home, 15 minutes to NYC plus if anyone trespesses on your house you are allowed to pop a cap in their ass.
May 27th, 2008 at 3:25 pm
Thanks to everyone (especially Rhymingrealtor) that ansered me in the weekend discustion regarding that Springfield house.
May 27th, 2008 at 3:26 pm
the ceo from hudson city is on bloom saying
business is booming, and apps are up.,
we are listening to the wrong people.
so,,, take that
May 27th, 2008 at 3:27 pm
River Edge
New Home
SLD 290 KINDERKAMACK RD $369,900 4/9/2001
SLD 290 KINDERKAMACK RD $480,000 11/10/2003
SLD 290 KINDERKAMACK RD $585,000 8/17/2006
Bank Owned
2804806 Withdrawn
ACT 290 KINDERKAMACK RD $575,000 2/4/2008
W-T 290 KINDERKAMACK RD $575,000 2/7/2008
2812200 Expired
ACT 290 KINDERKAMACK RD $499,900 3/27/2008 EXP 290 KINDERKAMACK RD $499,900 5/8/2008
2821368 Under Contract
ACT 290 KINDERKAMACK RD $499,900 5/27/2008
ACT* 290 KINDERKAMACK RD $499,900 5/27/2008
U/C 290 KINDERKAMACK RD $499,900 5/27/2008
Who thinks the closing price will be below 2003 sales price? I mean, besides me.
May 27th, 2008 at 3:28 pm
142
“And, energy costs are sucking $ out of family budgets.”
and by “budgets” you mean the family HELOC.
May 27th, 2008 at 3:31 pm
lostinny:
http://www.crawfishfest.com/
?
May 27th, 2008 at 3:43 pm
Registrant:
michael stoler
25 sutton place south
new york, New York 10022
United States
Registered through: GoDaddy.com, Inc. (http://www.godaddy.com)
Domain Name: NYREALESTATEREPORT.COM
Wonder who this guy is?
May 27th, 2008 at 3:47 pm
Building New York is a lively conversation hosted by Michael Stoler, Senior Principal, Apollo Real Estate Advisors, L.P. and contributing editor to The New York Sun. The show is New York’s only television broadcast featuring local and national leaders responsible for real estate activities in the Metropolitan region. The program debuted on television and CUNY TV, owned and operated by the City University of New York in March 2006. The program provides insight to the latest news, developments and economic trends. The guests share their thoughts and personal experience on important real estate issues in the largest real estate community in the world.
The half hour tax show airs six times a month in New York City on CUNY TV, Channel 75 and three times a week in East Hampton, Island, airing Monday at 6 AM, Tuesday at 9:30 AM and Friday at 5:30.
Each new broadcast airs on the last Monday of the month airing at 10 AM, 4 PM and 10 PM, then the following Thursday at 11:30 PM, Saturday at 5 PM and Sunday at 8:30 AM.
The show also aires the following Thursday at 6:00 AM, one week later on Saturday at 8:30AM with a final broadcast on Wednesday of that week at noon.
May 27th, 2008 at 3:48 pm
nice weather we’re having
May 27th, 2008 at 3:49 pm
#147 rich
Yes I believe it will sell below 03 price, well below. I believe it is bank owned, but could be wrong.
May 27th, 2008 at 3:56 pm
Did anyone open their unheated pool yet?
May 27th, 2008 at 4:04 pm
“So, our economy is driven by consumer spending. And, energy costs are sucking $ out of family budgets. And, consumer confidence has dropped to an 18-year low. What does Wall Street do? It goes up 76 points.”
Well, equity prices are driven by expectations of future corporate earnings viv a vis other comparable invenstment vehicles. Not all corporations are consumer driven. And consumer confidence indicies are as useless as any other poll used for predicting fickle human behavior. So it’s not really that suprising.
May 27th, 2008 at 4:12 pm
Well, equity prices are driven by expectations of future corporate earnings viv a vis other comparable invenstment vehicles. Not all corporations are consumer driven. And consumer confidence indicies are as useless as any other poll used for predicting fickle human behavior. So it’s not really that suprising.
None can really figure out why the market is up in any partucular day.
But I can tell you that that your future earnings on anyone that sells to the American consumer will get revised downward again and again.
And that my fried is bad news for the DOW.
May 27th, 2008 at 4:14 pm
3B (153),
Yes, it is bank owned.
May 27th, 2008 at 4:16 pm
A good one:
Meet Tracy Warren. NPR says she’s not surprised by the mortgage meltdown because she was supposed to be in charge of preventing it. Tracy worked for a quality control contractor that reviewed subprime loans for investment banks before they were sold on Wall Street, and her company’s biggest client was none other than Bear Stearns. Tracy says she found plenty of loans to reject. The trouble is, according to Tracy, after she rejected them… her bosses unrejected them.
http://consumerist.com/tag/corruption/?i=5011146&t=is-this-woman-the-smoking-gun-of-the-mortgage-meltdown
May 27th, 2008 at 4:18 pm
#157 Rich: Thanks.
May 27th, 2008 at 4:19 pm
# 158 Who was the woman at Enron who was able to point the fingers and bring down the house of cards?
May 27th, 2008 at 4:22 pm
#157 Rich: Anything else go UC in River Edge lately? I try to follow, but do not know if they go UC, or just expire.
Ones that I thought had gone UC, many times end up coming back on market.
May 27th, 2008 at 4:23 pm
Peter Schiff’s weekly newsletter,
It’s Not an Oil Crisis, It’s a Dollar Crisis.
It is unfortunate that the Supreme Court, in its ruling this week that U.S. currency is unfair to the blind, did not make the next logical step and declare it unfair to everyone who buys gasoline.
In their search for explanations as to why oil has surged past $130 per barrel, Washington, Wall Street, and the financial media are as clueless as cavemen after a freak summer snow storm. Despite the head scratching, the blame game is nevertheless in full force. Speculators and big oil companies are being trotted out as scapegoats, and increased margin requirements and taxes on windfall profits and futures trading have been mentioned as appropriate sanctions. In fact, this week the House of Representatives overwhelming approved a bill to sue OPEC for violating U.S. anti trust laws. It should be clear that all of this is pure farce, and that no one understands what is actually happening.
The reality is that after years of reckless consumption and dollar debasement, Americans are now being priced out of markets over which they formerly held unchallenged title. As more affluent foreigners consume more of the resources and products they previously supplied to us, Americans are being forced to cut back. The rising dollar-based price of gasoline is simply an illustration of this global trend.
Poorly concealed behind contrived government statistics, the signs of America’s falling standard of living are everywhere; all one has to do is look. We are unloading SUVs for less desirable compacts, and are paying more to fly on crowded planes (where we pay to check luggage and dine only on what we bring onboard). We drink our lattes at McDonalds or not at all, and we increasingly forego dining out, trips to the mall, and vacations, just so we can scrape together enough to fill our gas tanks and kitchen pantries, pay taxes and insurance, or make credit card, mortgage or car payments.
The collective belt tightening is simply the down payment on the Government’s massive bailout of Wall Street investment banks and mortgage lenders. As the Fed creates money to buy bad mortgages and other shaky securities held by banks and brokerage firms, the value of the savings and wages of everyone on Main Street will continue to fall. As a result, the costs of products previously taken for granted have begun to bite.
The various housing bills and stimulus packages now passing through Congress will add significantly to the staggering final price tag. In the end, the “free lunch” currently being dished out by Washington will be the most expensive