Tue 10 Jun 2008
From CNN/Money:
Across the country, real estate agents and home sellers in wealthy neighborhoods who grew accustomed to seven-figure bidding wars during the boom are feeling the sting of the housing crunch.
Ed McMahon can vouch for that. The former Johnny Carson sidekick and TV pitchman recently saw his $5 million Beverly Hills home go into foreclosure.
In fact, McMahon is a celebrity face to a broader trend.
Three of the nation’s richest zip codes saw particularly steep home-price declines in the three months ending April 30, compared with the previous three months.
In Palm Beach, Fla. (zip code 33480), median home prices fell 38% during that period, according to the real estate Web site Trulia. Prices in Greenwich, Conn. (06831), dropped 15%, while homes in Wayzata, Minn. (55391), are selling for 28% less.
Prices in other wealthy towns also declined: Gladwyne, Penn. (19035), was down 6%, and Beverly Hills (90210), Lincoln, Mass. (01773), and Ladue, Mo. (63124), each slid 2%.
“What I’m finding is that million dollar plus homes declined 4% or so [over the past 12 months],” said Don Kelly, a spokesman for Zaio, which is building a national data base of home value appraisals.
And foreclosure data tracks the pricing information. In Beverly Hills, filings nearly doubled to 41 in the first four months of this year, up from 22 in the same period last year, according to RealtyTrac, which compiles foreclosure stats. In Palm Beach, there were 34 foreclosure filings, up from 9 in the period a year ago. Greenwich had 23, up from 10, while Wayzata had 18, compared with 14 a year ago. Kenilworth, Gladwyne and Medina had just one each, while Lincoln had none.
…
But many ritzy areas are finding they are not immune to the housing slowdown.
…
In the Philadelphia suburb of Gladwyne, the wealthiest town in Pennsylvania which lies along the fabled “Main Line,” the market has also slowed, according to Judy Getson, the sales manager for Prudential Fox & Roach in Haverford.According to Trulia, just six homes sold in Gladwyne during the three months ending April 30, down from 14 sold in the same three months during 2003, a boom year. There are now 42 homes in town on the market for a million dollars or more, according to Realtor.com, ranging from $1.195 million to $17 million.
Getson is seeing a downsizing phenomenon similar to Greenwich in the Philadelphia area, although not in Gladwyne proper. “A lot of people are moving from mansions and buying condos in the city,” she said.
First Frist
How HUD’s mortgage policy fed the crisis
From the Allentown Morning Call:
Real estate is in a slump
The number of homes sold in the Lehigh Valley dropped more than 20 percent in May compared to the same month in 2007, with prices dipping as well.
A total of 517 homes sold last month, down 22 percent from the 663 homes sold in May 2007, according to statistics provided by the Lehigh Valley Association of Realtors.
The average sale price of a home came in at $217,000, down 3.6 percent from the $225,000 average price in May 2007.
”It’s taking longer for sellers to realize they may have to drop their prices,” said Mark Molchany, president of the Realtor’s association.
From today’s NY Times. I thought these were the guys who were holding the gun to our heads. Hmmm…
HONG KONG — Chinese stocks plummeted 8.1 percent on Tuesday, their biggest single-day drop in nearly 16 months, leading a broad downturn in Asian stock markets.
The plunge in the Shanghai and Shenzhen markets followed an increase in Chinese bank reserve requirements, increased worries about high food and oil prices, and fears about exports to the United States. The Hong Kong stock market also fell 4.1 percent.
From the Star Ledger:
New Jersey gambles on Lehman’s credit crisis
New Jersey government retirees picked up a $180 million stake in the troubled Lehman Bros. investment firm yesterday, as state investment officials continued a pattern of attempting to profit from the cash woes of banking giants stung by the subprime mortgage collapse.
Lehman yesterday reported a $2.8 billion loss for the most recent quarter of its fiscal year, and announced plans to sell $6 billion in stock to shore up its accounts.
The New Jersey Division of Investment, which manages about $81.5 billion in holdings for the state’s retirement plans, snapped up $120 million in newly issued common stock and another $60 million in a preferred stock offering that totaled $2 billion.
The purchases, according to Division officials, are designed to offset recent sales of financial stocks.
“These portfolio changes are intended to improve the investment performance of our financial-services equity portfolio over time,” according to a statement from the Division. “Please note that New Jersey’s portfolio continues to be underexposed to financial services stocks relative to overall market.”
From Bloomberg:
How Bernanke’s Banker Rescue Spells Their Demise: Michael Lewis
One of the many consequences of the Federal Reserve’s bailout of the subprime-mortgage market is the sudden urge felt by Fed Chairman Ben Bernanke to let everyone know he won’t be making a habit of the practice.
“Once financial conditions become more normal,” he told a Fed conference on May 13, “the extraordinary provision of liquidity by the Federal Reserve will no longer be needed. As (Walter) Bagehot would surely advise, under normal conditions financial institutions should look to private counterparties and not central banks as a source of ongoing funding.’
I don’t know if Bernanke actually believes that his words will make any difference, or if he’s just hoping out loud. But he might as well save his breath because his actions have spoken for him.
The long-term effect of the Fed’s decision to extend cheap money to distressed firms, and to take on the risk of Bear Stearns Cos.’s mortgage trades, is fantastically transparent: Investment banks now have even less pressure on them than they did before to control their risks.
Potential lenders will be less likely to worry about extending them the credit they need to run these risks, or being counterparty to their trades. Potential investors will suspect that their shares come with a put option attached to them. Potential employees, when deciding which firm to work for, will spend even less time than they now do asking if the place is likely to survive.
No price drops in PBC! Only the best and brightest…sea of cabbage…no layoffs on Wall St…parents forking over 600K gift letters on 1BR condos…Eurotrash buying everything in sight…downturns can’t happen here!
From the WSJ:
More Pain Ahead for UBS?
Lehman’s Warning
Spurs New Concerns
About Write-Downs
By KATHARINA BART
June 10, 2008; Page C2
ZURICH — Investors are bracing for more write-downs on mortgage securities from Switzerland’s UBS AG after prices for such holdings have worsened dramatically in recent weeks, and as rival Lehman Brothers Holdings Inc. disclosed a profit warning.
Write-downs announced Monday by Lehman Brothers are “clearly indicative of further write-downs for UBS, as is the deterioration in AAA-rated securities and the U.K. mortgage market,” said Peter Thorne of independent brokerage Helvea in London.
grim (5)-
“These portfolio changes are intended to improve the investment performance of our financial-services equity portfolio over time,” according to a statement from the Division. “Please note that New Jersey’s portfolio continues to be underexposed to financial services stocks relative to overall market.”
I think I just threw up in my mouth a little.
From the WSJ:
FHA Officials Seek to Ban
Seller-Assisted Payments
By MICHAEL CORKERY and MICHAEL R. CRITTENDEN
June 10, 2008; Page A13
Federal housing officials are trying again to ban seller-assisted down payments on federally insured mortgages, amid concerns about mounting losses tied to these loans.
The Federal Housing Administration has reopened a public-comment period on a proposed rule on such assistance, which the agency says leads to higher-than-normal foreclosure rates.
Under the seller-funding practice, a third party — typically a charity — provides the down payment for the buyer and is then reimbursed by the home seller, often a home builder. This can help home sellers close deals with buyers who can’t come up with down payments on their own.
FHA Commissioner Brian Montgomery said Monday that the government-backed loans made to borrowers who receive down-payment assistance go into foreclosure at three times the rate of loans in which borrowers pay for their own down payment. Loans with seller-assisted down payments make up about 35% of the FHA’s loan portfolio, up from only 5% in 2001.
After a recent evaluation, the FHA estimates it will incur an additional $4.6 billion in unanticipated long-term losses, primarily due to loans involving seller-funded down-payment gifts.
“We are concerned about this business, because the substantial losses affect FHA’s bottom line and FHA’s ability to serve American citizens who need access to prime-rate home loans,” Mr. Montgomery said during a speech at the National Press Club.
If things are so bad, when will home prices drop to affordable levels in NJ?
So far they have moved very little as opposed to CA, NV, FL.
From Bloomberg:
Treasuries Slump After
Bernanke Fans Speculation Rates to Rise
Treasuries slumped, driving two-year yields up the most in two days since 1985, after Federal Reserve Chairman Ben S. Bernanke pledged to “strongly resist” any waning of public confidence in stable prices.
Two-year note yields approached the highest level this year after Bernanke said the risk of a “substantial downturn” in U.S. economic growth has diminished. Traders have increased bets that policy makers will raise interest rates by September, futures showed.
“Central banks have spoken out more loudly that they will not allow inflation expectations to go up, so short yields have been shooting up quite dramatically, pricing in rate hikes,” said Allan von Mehren, a Copenhagen-based fixed-income strategist at Danske Bank AS, the biggest lender in Denmark. “Bernanke is spending more time on addressing the risk of rising inflation expectations.”
From CNBC:
London tops list of global financial centers
London is the most influential financial centre in the world for the second year running, according to MasterCard’s second annual survey.
European and Asian cities dominated the list as U.S. cities hit by the weak dollar tumbled in the rankings released on Sunday.
Shanghai, the world’s most populous and fastest-growing urban centre, shot up eight spots to No. 24, given its growing importance in China’s booming economy, while Los Angeles fell out of the top 10, to 17, as financial-services companies left.
“With a strong and secure economy, vibrant financial markets and a legal and political framework that supports high levels of International trade, London again secures the top spot in the Centers of Commerce Index in 2008,” the report says.
“London towers over other cities not only in narrow financial terms but in a broader sense as well,” said Michael Goldberg, Program Director, MasterCard Worldwide Centers of Commerce Program.
The index covers 75 cities, ranking them according to their legal and political frameworks, economic stability, ease of doing business, volume of financial activities, presence of financial institutions, reputations as business Centers, contributions toward knowledge creation, and livability.
“The European and Asian cities came out very strong,” Goldberg said. “They became strong against the weak dollar.”
New York, No. 2, and Chicago, No. 5, were the only two North American cities to make the top 10 global commercial Centers.
Tokyo was third and Singapore fourth. Hong Kong was sixth followed by Paris, Frankfurt, Seoul and Amsterdam.
Anyone see today’s dilbert strip?
The cartoonist takes a shot at financial ceos, and it’s a good one.
http://feeds.feedburner.com/DilbertDailyStrip
From the WSJ:
Hi, My Name Is Fred,
And I’m Addicted to Credit Cards
In the Debt-Soaked Economic Slump,
Americans Find Solace in Support Groups
By JENNIFER LEVITZ
June 10, 2008; Page A1
After years of free spending — $200 jeans, a silver BMW and other grown-up toys — Michael Wagner had racked up $25,000 in credit-card debt and was behind on his mortgage and car payments. Creditors called night and day. It was a “hopeless downward spiral,” he says.
Then, last November, the 34-year-old sales manager for the St. Louis Post-Dispatch joined the “Sunday morning breakfast club,” a group of debtors who meet weekly over coffee and eggs to share money woes. Mr. Wagner says he is now on the road to financial recovery, helped by his discovery that “I wasn’t alone.”
Far from it. In the debt-soaked economic slump of 2008, growing numbers of in-hock Americans are finding solace, and sometimes solutions, in support groups for the overextended. Gatherings like Mr. Wagner’s are springing up at churches, colleges and coffee shops.
From the AP:
NC senator defaults on $1.3M mortgage loan
A North Carolina state senator and her former domestic partner have defaulted on a $1.3 million mortgage on a New Hanover County home.
Sen. Julia Boseman and Melissa Jarrell have failed to pay the $7,156 monthly payments since last August, according to evidence at a court hearing last week. The home is now scheduled to be auctioned June 25 at the county courthouse, the Star-News of Wilmington reported.
From the NY Times:
F.H.A. Faces $4.6 Billion in Losses
The Federal Housing Administration expects to lose $4.6 billion because of unexpectedly high default rates on home loans, officials said Monday.
Brian D. Montgomery, the F.H.A. commissioner, attributed the unanticipated losses primarily to the agency’s seller-financed down payment mortgage program, which has suffered from high delinquency and foreclosure rates in recent years.
Housing officials said the agency was also hurt by poor performance in its traditional mortgage portfolio. Deteriorating economic conditions led some of its core clients — first-time buyers, minorities and lower-income owners — to default, they said.
The projected loss is the highest in the home loan program since 2004, and officials said the F.H.A. had to withdraw $4.6 billion from its $21 billion capital reserve fund in May to cover the costs. They said the agency, which is self-sustaining, would not need appropriations from Congress to remain solvent.
Clotpoll Says:
No price drops in PBC!
Holy short sale in Lambertville, Batman!!!!
Frank, it is not going to happen this year. It will possibly start next year but who knows by how much. I figured that as long as it took to rise is possibly how long it will take to go down or possibly faster. NJ is very much not like FL or NV, we do have NY to thank for that since there are many jobs to be had here unlike NV and FL. As for CA, they were the starting trend of home prices being way over priced, I think we will follow soon like them but not this year. Sellers are stubborn here, like my sister. She put her 2 family home up for sale last year and for 390K and the thing is so damn small with high taxes. I told her that she should lower it if she want to sell it. One year later she lower it to 369K, still no as low as I would like to see it since it is a two bedroom 2 family with each family being about 750 square feet (what a joke). I told her that her house since she bought it went up from 169K to what it was appraised for 390K was very ridiculous. I gave her the standard inflation rate from when she bought it in 1996 to now and I told her that her house is actually really worth 270K. I even told her that it was high considering that there was no upgrades since she bought the home and that everything is original. When I told her that she practically looked at me in shock and did not want to hear it. She is a typical owner in NJ that does not want to hear it and the fact that she is stubborn is what others are being now until they have to face reality.
Welcome to the new home of Garden State MLS’ public search engine. Currently, there are 37,006 properties
Lot of Properties!! and its only june. mmm
Wow everyone jumped on me when I said riding a bike to work is career suicide in the NYC
First of all most buildings leases do not allow Bikes in building period and have no place to lock them up. Some leases are even for 30 years. Second most leases prohibit showers, finally rent is so high they ain’t making lockers and changing rooms. Also anyone above VP leaves in NYC close to office or in bedroom tony community a short walk or short ride from train. There is no need for these guys to ride a bike, plus LIRR and Metronorth don’t let regular bikes on in rush hour.
We did have a nut at work who did it with a folding bike he would sneak in with and then would stink up the bathroom cleaning up. Even goofier was him in business casual with a rubber band on his pant leg, a helmut on his head and sneakers and a whole lot of sweat.
What is the point of riding a bike to work when we take the train?
Also someone said in Miwaukee they bike ride, WHAT? I did a six month project there, it is insanely cold six months a year and people live like 40 miles from work. Plus they are all fat as cows there from their wurst, cheese and beer. Those porkers rarely drive camry’s cause their big beer bellies barely fit behind the wheel.
x (18)-
A real bloodbath. Of course, Lambertville is an affluent and picturesque town, favored by wealthy second-home owners from both NYC and Phila. Prices could never drop there.
[sarcasm off]
From Reuters:
Small Business Confidence at Lowest Since 1980
Small business owner confidence in the U.S. economy deteriorated to its lowest in 28 years, according to a survey released Tuesday.
The National Federation of Independent Business said its index of small business optimism fell 2.2 points in May to 89.3, the lowest reading since 1980, when the index plunged as a recession hit.
“The current low readings, however, have not been accompanied by the declines in real spending and hiring as was the case in past recessions,” said William Dunkelberg, NFIB’s chief economist.
“Expectations are relatively more depressed in the current low index readings, thus an economy that is slow, but not experiencing negative growth,” said Dunkelberg.
The weak economy does not seem to be helping on the inflation front, the group said. The number of owners citing inflation as their number one business problem is up 3 points to 17 percent, the highest reading since 1982.
The job market will also be weak, the NFIB said. Over the next three months, only 2 percent of the owners surveyed plan to create new jobs, down 3 points from April.
Market Update
08:31 am : S&P futures vs fair value: -13.7. Nasdaq futures vs fair value: -18.5. Stocks futures point to a sharply lower open as they slip toward their session lows. The April U.S. deficit increased 7.8% to $60.9 billion, compared to the expected deficit of $60.0 billion.
So much for Bushes excuse that weakening the dollar will reduce our trade deficit. Buffoons they are. All of ‘em.
Clotpoll Says:
Lambertville is an affluent and picturesque town
Great place but it’s tough commuting to pretty much anywhere. That’s going to hurt it, and the other towns, where people have to drive 45+ minutes to work.
If things are so bad, when will home prices drop to affordable levels in NJ?
So far they have moved very little as opposed to CA, NV, FL.
Different dynamic in play.
In those places, you have lots of speculator-held properties that are sitting empty. There is little emotional connection to those houses and little ability to carry those places for long. Many of those speculators have simply walked away from mortgages or deposits when values tanked. Banks are liquidating inventory just to get it off their books.
In NJ, it’s less a case of speculators and more that homeowners (owner occupiers) over paid for their houses. They are more likely to drag their feet, dig-in, and fight. That being said, you can’t fight the fundamentals forever.
Prestigious Bergen County is broken out into the following categories
Real Wealthy Towns
Alpine
Englewood Cliffs
Franklin Lakes
Rockleigh
Upper Saddle River
Prestigious Blue Ribbon Wall St Towns
Allendale
Closter
Cresskill
Demarest
Emerson
Harrington Park
Haworth
Hillsdale
Ho-Ho-Kus
Mahwah (Township)
Montvale
Northvale
Norwood
Oakland
Old Tappan
Oradell
Park Ridge
Ramsey
Ridgewood (Village)
River Edge
River Vale (Township)
Saddle River
Tenafly
Woodcliff Lake
Wyckoff (Township)
Wannabe Prestigious Blue Ribbon Towns
Cliffside Park
Edgewater
Fort Lee
Glen Rock
Hasbrouck Heights
Midland Park
Palisades Park
Paramus
Rutherford
Waldwick
Washington Township
Westwood
Wood-Ridge
Entry Level Towns
Bogota
Carlstadt
Dumont
East Rutherford
Elmwood Park
Fair Lawn
Leonia
Little Ferry
Lodi
Lyndhurst (Township)
Maywood
New Milford
North Arlington
Ridgefield
Ridgefield Park (Village)
Rochelle Park (Township)
Saddle Brook (Township)
Teaneck (Township)
Wallington
Not So Prestigious Towns
Bergenfield
Englewood
Fairview
Garfield
Hackensack
Moonachie
Teterboro
In regard to Obama’s $50 million ’stimulus package plan’ that was discussed yesterday …
who ends up paying for it?
and do you have links to back it up?
damn moderation!
Market Conditions for Cherry Hill, New Jersey.
From “Realty Times”
June 4
http://realtytimes.com/rtmcrcond5/New_Jersey~Cherry_Hill~cheriemaffie
Higher priced homes are remaining on the market longer. Prices have stopped escalating and homes are not selling as quickly because of the increased number of homes on the market and tighter mortgage requirements.
There were 171 homes listed during May and 53 homes going under contract. It is taking an average of 78 days on the market to sell your home, down from 106 days last month. Currently Cherry Hill has approximately 9 months worth of inventory.
ZIP Codes: 08003, 08002, 08034
re: #4 Clotpoll Colonel Klink is supposed to give a speech today about the relationship between China and the USA. He will probobaly tank their stock another 5%.
http://www.mcall.com/business/realestate/all-smart00608.6443370jun08,0,3966636.story?ref=patrick.net
Lowballs
Every time Bergabe opens his mouth, wealth dies somewhere.
#32John: 13k off the price, does not sound like a low ball to me, without of course knowing what the asking and sales price was. But on a 400/500k house, 13K is nothing.
Greenwich CT?!?!?
If only Greenwich were near, say, New York and all of its rich investment bankers. If only the hedge funds and their crazy bonuses had moved to Greenwich.
If only it had beautiful old homes and good schools and a direct line to NYC and a lot of college educated people.
If only.
Ping!
#33 clot; With Greenspan, you knew at some point during his long reign at the Fed, that he started to believe that he really was maigical. it all went to his head if you will.
With Bergabe, I really think the guy is clueless. Yesterday he is rambling on about how he believes the economy has dodged a bullet.
What does this mean?
“Pinging is currently not allowed.”
Is it like “No Pepper Games Allowed”?
Ping!!
Sitting office hours in Princeton is looking damn good right now.
We need a low ball Hall of Fame.
8 grim
“Write-downs announced Monday ”
That CAN’T be true!
bi and S&P said there would be no more writedowns!!!
#30
I like the dope that wrote the report for Somerset County. They supply went up from 8 months to 9 months, but as he says, this Somerset country market is much healthier than what the national media wants you to believe.
What a dope. More proof that you can’t trust info from somebody trying to sell you something.
[27]
Real Wealthy Towns
Alpine - agree
Englewood Cliffs - ok
Franklin Lakes - ok
Rockleigh - agree
Upper Saddle River - disagree - Saddle River is welathy - USR belongs one tier down.
Prestigious Blue Ribbon Wall St Towns
Allendale agree
Closter eh
Cresskill eh
Demarest ok
Emerson one tier down
Harrington Park ok
Haworth agree
Hillsdale one tier down
Ho-Ho-Kus agree
Mahwah (Township) depends on the street
Montvale one tier down
Northvale - to far from anywhere
Norwood - to far from anywhere
Oakland - one tier down
Old Tappan agree
Oradell one tier down
Park Ridge agree
Ramsey agree
Ridgewood (Village) agree
River Edge one tier down
River Vale (Township) one tier down
Saddle River one tier up
Tenafly one tier down
Woodcliff Lake agree
Wyckoff (Township) agree
Wannabe Prestigious Blue Ribbon Towns
Cliffside Park one tier down
Edgewater one tier down
Fort Lee agree
Glen Rock one tier up
Hasbrouck Heights one tier down
Midland Park agree
Palisades Park one tier down
Paramus agree
Rutherford agree
Waldwick one tier down
Washington Township agree
Westwood agree
Wood-Ridge one tier down
Entry Level Towns
Bogota agree
Carlstadt one tier down
Dumont agree
East Rutherford agree
Elmwood Park agree
Fair Lawn agree
Leonia one tier up
Little Ferry one tier down
Lodi one tier down
Lyndhurst (Township) one tier down
Maywood agree
New Milford one tier down
North Arlington one tier down
Ridgefield agree
Ridgefield Park (Village) agree
Rochelle Park (Township)agree
Saddle Brook (Township)agree
Teaneck (Township)agree
Wallington one tier down
Not So Prestigious Towns
Bergenfield agree
Englewood agree
Fairview agree
Garfield agree
Hackensack agree
Moonachie agree
Teterboroa agree
.
“Pinging is currently not allowed.”
Fortunately, ‘ponging’ is still available. But with interest rates at historic lows, don’t let this opportunity pass you by.
21 john
“Plus they are all fat as cows there from their wurst, cheese and beer.”
That’s a feature, not a bug.
#43this Somerset country market is much healthier than what the national media wants you to believe.
Of course the media was never a problem when they were reporting that prices were going up, up and away.
[32] That article is a joke.
We talked to our mortgage loan officer yesterday and she said that we make too much money to qualify for “first time buyers” something or other. I have to admit…i’ve forgotten what she said. I think it was because i was shocked to hear it. We’re first time buyers and because we “make too much money” we don’t qualify. The cut off for Union County where we are looking is $84,000 for combined salaries. Anyone hear of this, experience this?
#27 tbw: mostly agree with your breakdown. i would howver move Glen Rock into the prestigious Blue ribbon town category.
Meanwhile back in River Edge, where obviously soem developers have not gotten the message that teh amrket has changed, the following projects are on the drawing baord.
A 104 unit Condo project, where Ali’s Carpet used to be, at the side of the entrance to Rt 4 East.
A 20 unit condo project on Kinkerkamack off of Resevior,and a 34 unit condo project where the old River Dell Florist used to be on KKR, across from the PNC bank.
CNBC would have you believe the turn-around has already happened. Seems about once every 5 minutes they have a talking head that says a market somewhere has hit bottom and now is the time to buy.
http://www.cnbc.com/id/25058900
Then there’s this “reporter” who takes a developer’s press release and pretends he wrote an “article” about how Phila condos haven’t taken a hit.
http://www.philly.com/inquirer/real_estate/20080605_Center_City_condos_thriving.html
[51] Get used to it. If you can afford a home in Northern New Jersey, the odds are that you will get phased out of any program, rebate etc, but hey look on the bright side you will get hit with the AMT.
[50] that’s just what the Ali’s area nees a 104 condo unit. Can you imagine the traffic nightmare and the back up on the u-turn
Franklin Lakes needs to move down a slot
I understand your pont there Grim, but it does have a tremendous amount of wealth not made on wall street.
It’s not old money like Englewood Cliffs or Saddle River (which has to be #1)
From Fitch:
10 Jun 2008 Fitch Downgrades D.R. Horton’s IDR to ‘BB+’; Outlook Remains Negative Ratings
10 Jun 2008 Fitch Downgrades Centex’s IDR to ‘BB+’; Outlook Remains Negative Ratings
10 Jun 2008 Fitch Downgrades Beazer’s IDR to ‘B’; Remains on Rating Watch Negative
10 Jun 2008 Fitch Downgrades Lennar’s IDR to ‘BBB-’; Outlook Remains Negative
10 Jun 2008 Fitch Downgrades M/I Homes’ IDR to ‘B+’; Outlook Remains Negative Ratings
10 Jun 2008 Fitch Downgrades Meritage Homes’ IDR to ‘B+’; Outlook Remains Negative
10 Jun 2008 Fitch Downgrades Ryland’s IDR to ‘BB+’; Outlook Remains Negative Ratings
10 Jun 2008 Fitch Downgrades Pulte’s IDR to ‘BBB-’; Outlook Remains Negative
What are you trying to say Grim?
It’s a nice town, but it isn’t in the same category as the others. How does the Sesame Street song go?
One of these things is not like the others,
One of these things just doesn’t belong,
Can you tell which thing is not like the others
By the time I finish my song?
Did you guess which thing was not like the others?
Did you guess which thing just doesn’t belong?
If you guessed this one is not like the others,
Then you’re absolutely…right!
It’s obvious Jam. The homebuilders have bottomed.
Jam,
Actually, Alpine and Saddle River are probably the only two Bergen towns that belong in that top tier. I suppose you could make an argument for Rockleigh as well.
Grim #16
US Senator defaults on a mortgage!!!Unbelivable.
We elect these guys to run our country and they can’t run their own finances.
Of course they are irresponsible and reckless with their own money then what the hell do you think they’re gonna do with mine.
There needs to be a financial proficiency exam if you wanna put your name on a ballot to run for a US senator.
damn lawyers.
[59] I’m convinced, Grim. You are right. Alpine, Saddle River, and yes Rockleigh are the only ones that belong there.
[58] bottomed?????
#54
What, no Toll Bros.?
oeycasz Says:
June 10th, 2008 at 9:59 am
We talked to our mortgage loan officer yesterday and she said that we make too much money to qualify for “first time buyers” something or other. I have to admit…i’ve forgotten what she said. I think it was because i was shocked to hear it. We’re first time buyers and because we “make too much money” we don’t qualify. The cut off for Union County where we are looking is $84,000 for combined salaries. Anyone hear of this, experience this?
Funny I had the same experience. for sommercet county it was something like 77K, for middlesex - 78K, union - 84K.
But loan limits: where something like 466K. Question -
Does anyone here sees a problem - conbined income less than 84K, loan - 466K!!!
With probably at least 7-10K taxes…. Something does not add-up in thouse govermental programms.
My take - with NJ taxes with 84K income you should be looking at mortgage of 240K max…
Also - all programms were with 3-5% downpayment.
In additon - tr4y to find anything semi-livable - I am not talking prestigious BC conty towns here, I mean livable in Middlesex, Union, and Somercet for 240K.
places I looked at for under 300K were all in need of major renovation/repairs.
“Something does not add-up in thouse govermental programms.”
As said earlier, we get to participate in AMT, which anecdotally, leaves us with nothing to withdraw from the ATM.
Sunny day…
sweepin’ the clouds away,
on my way to where the air is sweet…
Can you tell me how to get,
how to get to a Real Estate Bubble?
Come and buy,
everything’s a-okay.
Friendly neighbors there,
that’s where we meet
Can you tell me how to get,
how to get to a Real Estate Bubble?
It’s a magic carpet ride…
every door will open wide
to happy people like you,
happy people like,
what a beautiful
Sunny day…
sweepin’ the clouds away,
on my way to where the air is sweet…
Can you tell me how to get,
how to get to a Real Estate Bubble…?
how to get to a Real Estate Bubble…?
how to get to a Real Estate Bubble…?
(fade)
Question - anybody knows were (physical Address) can I look at property records - I need to make sure for the house I am going to be renting, on who is the owner - situation is complicated - it is “Family owned” according to the father of the family.
House is in woodbridge/colonia.
Would it be municipal building in woodbridge?
The first rule of a good program is to set one up that sounds good and seems to be a great deal. The second rule set up the qualifications in a way that hardly anyone quailifies.
re 21
John,
Although they seem the same from here, Milwaukee and Madison are different places. I would probably not ride in Milw, though some do. On swept paths it is not so much hassle.
I agree with you about the problems here, though a change in the law or voluntary changes in the agreements could happen very fast if necessary.
The idea of whst is commendable in the mind of the public can change faster than any of us can respond. Remember the SUV?
My take - with NJ taxes with 84K income you should be looking at mortgage of 240K max…
Also - all programms were with 3-5% downpayment.
In additon - tr4y to find anything semi-livable - I am not talking prestigious BC conty towns here, I mean livable in Middlesex, Union, and Somercet for 240K.
places I looked at for under 300K were all in need of major renovation/repairs.
It’s gotta be because we’re looking in the spring/summer right now as most of EVERYTHING we’re seeing in the 275-325 range needs quite a bit of repair. In some cases not a lot but some and in others it’s should just be torn down. We have noticed that if something is priced accordingly it sits on the market maybe 30-45 days and is snagged. I’ve also noticed much niver houses sell in the fall winter as there is obviously much less activity. Also i’m tired of looking at crappy capes priced WAY higher than they should be. These should be in a totally different price category. I just can’t image taking a shower on the first floor (usually in the kitchen or near it) and then going up to the second floor where the bedroom is, it doesn’t make sense!
Bugabe “Slowdown will help”.
>>
Is he being coached by Liereah and Yun?
Can someone give me the background on MLS #20823203 in Howell? It’s an REO. I think I recall it from earlier this spring. Did the deal fall through or was it relisted?
Al,
Tax assessor office in Woodbridge Twp. will have the ‘physical’ record of property owner.
County clerk or registrar of deeds (if they have one of the other) will get you records of the deed and mortgages on the property. Lastly this website will give basic property owner records. http://www.njactb.org/
Goto record search on top of page. Hope this helps. H
from #17 -
’solvent’ now, gone tomorrow.
italics added
“Let me repeat: F.H.A. is solvent,” Mr. Montgomery said on Monday in a speech at the National Press Club. “However, no insurance company can sustain that amount of additional costs year after year and still survive. Unless we take action to mitigate these losses, F.H.A. will soon either have to shut down or rely on appropriations to operate.”
I dont know, Franklin Lakes is much nicer than River Edge, maybe we need another tier!
hey all,
can someone provide some history on this listing please- mls #2808232
thank you
Ooooo ! We’re back. Hope it wasn’t anything serious with the server.
Five Things You Need to Know: Bernanke Says ‘Sell Your Gold Jewelry for Cash’ (Paraphrasing)
http://www.minyanville.com/articles/Bernanke-WMT-Fed-MAN-corn-SYY/index/a/17507
TO hirono, post 72:
Thanks a bunch!
The SUV is great, all the subprime crowd has to do is sublet their house and find a light pole with an electric outlet to park their Yukon XL next to at the train station. Heck with AC/Heat/DVD/Satelite Radio/8 beverage holders and a bathroom in the train station and a nearby Dunken donuts you could live their nine months out of the year. I swear I don’t know why more people just dont do it.
ALso what is all this talk of not being able to find nice homes in the 275-325 range? I was househunting in 1998 and 1999 and when I bought my 280K run down split with dog crapped homes that was the best I could get.
There hasn’t been nice well maintained homes in that price range since at least 1995.
#71 hughesrep
Regarding MLS#20823203
Sold- 10/29/99- $222,500
Sold- 6/29/04- $364,900
Listed- 7/13/06- $479,921
Reduced-11/14/07-$415,000
Reduced- 12/19/07- $394,500
Reduced- 2/22/08- $354,500
Under contract- 2/29/08
BOM- 4/12/08- $354,500
Expired-6/06/08
Relisted-6/09/08
property taxes- $7300
Bank owned
Agent notes- email agent with questions. Must use preprinted contracts attached with listing. Mortgage offers must have pre-approval letter. Cash sales must have proof of funds. Seller may take up tp 5 business days to respond to all offers and counters. No verbal offers. Not for rent.
I remember going to an open house in 2004 in Little Falls. This house was in a flood plain, very small and run down, the backyard was the Passaic River as I recall. House was under $300,000. There was a line out the door to get in!!
TO John:
ALso what is all this talk of not being able to find nice homes in the 275-325 range? I was househunting in 1998 and 1999 and when I bought my 280K run down split with dog crapped homes that was the best I could get.
There hasn’t been nice well maintained homes in that price range since at least 1995.
Houses I am looking for were all sold in 199-2001 for unter 150K!!!!
now they are all abouve 300K with no updates since - NOTHING updated.
Hey Chicago Finance, this is tempting me. Is the market really pricing in a complete default of wamu in the next 22 months to get this an over 10% yield. Even for Wamu this seems like a heck of a rate.
WASHINGTON MUT INC SUB NT 8.25000% 04/01/2010
Price (Ask) 96.460
Yield to Worst (Ask) 10.442%
Yield to Maturity 10.442357%
Third Party Price 98.875
Al, where are these homes located that they sold for 150K in 2000?
Piscataway middlesex, branchburg, bridgewater, dunellen, - and around that area. Look at GSMLS old sold records.
Piscataway, Dunelle, Middlesex, brunchburg - that general area.
P.S. I am not looking there anymore - just does not make any sense.
BigWindow #27
Saddle river > Upper Saddle River
Prestigious Blue Ribbon Towns (Monmouth County Edition.)
Real Wealthy
Rumson
Deal
Spring Lake
Sea Girt
Locust Section of Middletown
Prestigious Blue Ribbon
Little Silver
Fair Haven
Monmouth Beach
Shrewsbury
Avon-by-the-Sea
Allenhurst
Interlaken / Loch Arbour
Colts Neck
Holmdel
Brielle
The Wannabe Prestigious Blue Ribbon Towns
Oceanport
West Long Branch
Long Branch (Elberon and West end sections only)
Lincroft
Spring Lake Heights
Marlboro
Manalapan
Middletown sections (that can go to Middletown South HS)
Ocean Township
Shark River
Manasquan
Ocean Grove
Spring Lake Heights
Entry Level
Hazlet
Middletown (sections that can go to Middletown North HS.)
Red Bank
Atlantic Highlands
Eatontown
Tinton Falls
Freehold Township
Matawan
Bradley Beach
Belmar
Wall
Sea Bright
For the adventurous
Long Branch
Neptune
Keyport
Township of Shrewsbury
Highlands
Aberdeen
Howell
Don’t go there at night
Asbury Park
Keansburg
80 njcoast
Thanks!
Anyone want to do Morris County? Is every town there prestigious?
what about the famous and independent Lake Como?
can someone provide background with this property mls# 2808232, its down the block from me(my parents house) and has been vacant for a while, until recently…… but its still on NJMLS.com…. just curious
njpatient Says:
June 10th, 2008 at 9:35 am
“Greenwich CT?!?!?”
Obviously not Prestigious enough.
John Says:
June 10th, 2008 at 1:52 pm
“Al, where are these homes located that they sold for 150K in 2000?”
Al’s right. We were casually looking at the same time and there were plenty of starter ranches for around $150k. A well maintained cape, ranch or split on at least .5 of an acre was going for around $180k - a maximum of $200k (for spotless).
This is in the southern Somerset county/middle of Middlesex area. Basic blue collar/starter middle class neighbourhoods. All doubled in “value” over a period of around 5 years.
Believe you me…
Houses we were looking at were far from spotless - We had named them lovingly: the “cat’s house: “the flooded house” “the roach house” “smoker’s house” and such…
All had 1950’s appliances, no updates inside since … I just do not know when. Still above 300K. 3/1 Ranches and capes.
I think Elberon gets “Real Wealthy” status.
Here are a few homes among many
1085 Ocean Ave.- Elberon
Assessed-$12,583,300
Property taxes- $169,497.05
1115 Ocean Ave.- Elberon
Assessed-$10,834,500
Property taxes- $145,940.72
1129 Ocean Ave- Elberon
Assessed- $9,995,600
Property taxes-$134,640.73
1100 Ocean Ave.- Elberon
Assessed- $8,074,000
Property taxes-$108,756.78
1059 Ocean Ave.-Elberon
Assessed- $9,239,300
Property taxes- $117,333.13
981 Ocean Ave.- Elberon
Assessed- $15,043,500
Propert taxes-$0- Owned by the Catholic church-used as a “retreat”.
WOW - do people really pay 170K in taxes???
Holy cow, I should not complain.
to #27
Since when Oakland is Prestigious Blue Ribbon Wall St Town?
Glen Rock > Oakland > Paramus.
Re: Monmouth County towns…..
I think you missed on at least a half a dozen of those towns. Colts Neck, Holmdel, Atl Highlands are too low. Spring Lake Heights, Shrewsbury and Neptune too high.
Also, 6 different catagories is probably too much granularity. Try not to slice it so thin.
Since Elberon is technically a part of Long Branch, it is tainted by the corrupt government and sub-par school system there. In addition, its a buffer between Long Branch’s high crime areas and Deal’s bucolic lawns and architecture. Loch Arbour, Interlaken and Allenhurst, to the south, would similarly fare better too if they didn’t serve as a buffer between Deal and Asbury.
#94 Al
Yeah. The Elberon properties are all less than 5 acres so they can’t raise bees, grow X-mas trees, or have livestock to get farm assessments!
#7
I’m not ranking the towns within each category, just listing the towns that belong in each category. (ie. Little Silver is not necessarily the highest in the category its in.)
Atlantic Highlands is a tough call. The houses in the hills are very nice but some areas close to 36 or Leonardo can be pretty iffy.
The yield on the 10yr moving up again.
I noticed MorganStanley is calling for the yield to hit 4.75 this yr.
I bet for every tier you move upwards, total income taxes paid drops by 6%.
For example, the adventurous probably pays about 30% of their income in taxes.
The entry level resident, 24%.
Wannabees, 18%.
Prestigious, 12%.
Real Wealthy, (i.e. Corzine did in 2004), 6%.
Go ahead and vote for McCane. His economic plan is to increase the drop to 7 or 8%.
How? More borrowing. Did you hear he plans to remove AMT entirely? How? Didn’t explain it on his website (translation, tax cut for wealthy, more borrowing which impacts lower incomes significantly more).
Ten-year Treasury yields reach 4.10%, highest this year
59 make
“US Senator defaults on a mortgage!!!Unbelivable.”
State senator, actually.
10 year down (China selling??)
equities down
oil & gold down
Is this deleveraging?
86 r - I’d move Freehold Twp up into the “Wannabe Prestigious Blue Ribbon Towns” (McMansion Section Only) and you omitted Freehold Boro in the “For the Adventurous” category.
#63 Al
Tell me about it. I’ve been looking around southern Somerset country and coming up empty. I make around $73k ($63k salary and bonus a little over $10k) and I can’t find anything I consider liveable. The only places that could possibly be nice are in serious, serious need of repair. Tens, if not $100k of work.
I’m 25, and can’t say I know many others my age making what I am. If I can’t afford a half way decent home, how is anyone else my age supposed to? Keep in mind, I also have 0 debt. Credit card gets paid in full every month. Only other bill is cell phone. Car insurance is paid up through November. I can’t imagine too many people’s situation being better than mine.
Speaking of River Edge (and tbw was at 74), has anyone ever seen River’s Edge? One of the best lines ever in that flick, delivered by Dennis Hopper, describing the bike crash where his leg was ripped off:
“The rest of the gang ditched me, kept on riding. My leg was right out in the middle of the street. I remember lying in the gutter, all bleeding and shaking, staring at my leg, right next to a beer can, and I remember thinking: that’s my leg. I wonder if there’s any beer in that can?”
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=M5RhT7xyAW4
#63, 108
Prestigious Blue Ribbon/Wall St BC: Anything under $400k is a knock-down, and everything under $500k needs significant reno (on a main road) or is a knock-down (in a nice neighborhood).
Young couples, families, singles can’t afford this Prestigious BS.
We saw about a dozen houses in this area at the open houses, and only ran into two other young couples (with kids or expectant… I’d hate to be in a position to have to buy right now) and one middle-aged couple.
In my inbox today: An email from the most overpriced house we saw, urging us to make an offer now because it won’t last… and “now is the best time to buy.”
*cough*
Why the heck would a 24 yo old want a house?
Get the village voice find some single people with a rent stablized lease looking for a room mate and move on in. RE is dead for another 1-5 years, what is the rush for that anchor around your neck?
GetAClueNJ Says:
June 10th, 2008 at 3:02 pm
#63 Al
Tell me about it. I’ve been looking around southern Somerset country and coming up empty. I make around $73k ($63k salary and bonus a little over $10k) and I can’t find anything I consider liveable. The only places that could possibly be nice are in serious, serious need of repair. Tens, if not $100k of work.
There is an easy cure - move the #$%^ out of NJ. Unless your job is wall-street related - move. I am stuck here for at least another year due to contract/ retirements account vesting rules, after that I am moving.
(unless the UNthinkable happens and NJ prices will go down in a year significantly)
P.S. 73K is not that much, you should be able to get similar salary elsewere. - Think positive: 10% less in salary, 40% less in mortgage payments:)
#111 Al
You nailed my problem right on the head. I’m tied to NYC working in the hedge fund business. I’m not working in the city yet, but in Summit.
Also, I don’t believe that it’s unthinkable. I believe that reason it hasn’t happened already is the people are unbelievably stubborn and naive to think we are immune to the nation’s housing problem.
As you stated, 10% less salary and 40% lower mortgage payments. So that throw’s out the make more money here argument, as it’s clearly not enough to pick up the cost of living.
Next comes property taxes, where the average in NJ is more than double the average in the next highest state. $7k just for the “priveledge” of living in NJ isn’t very enticing.
Next you throw in the absolutly corrupt and inept government that does everything in it’s power to destroy the state’s economy and drive business and jobs away, which is also forcing people to move away in droves. In the next few years at the current pace, NJ is set to lose a congressman and guess who will gain one; North Carolina. Any wonder NC is the only housing market in the country not imploding. It’s full of NJ transplants.
So no, I don’t think it’s unthinkable, but I am getting tired of waiting for it to play out.
AMBAC is rapidly approaching de-listing, $1.88 per share from $89 a year ago.
Any idea of what would happen if they are de-listed? Will they finally loose AAA ratings?
I can’t believe the d*olts are still asking some of the prices for these piece of sh*t rat holes. $500,000 and $10,000 for a nothing house that needs major kitchen, bath and flooring updates as well as paint in every room and possibly some sort of heating/cooling unit. It’s just f*cking unreal.
We went to the food store Sunday morning to pick up a “few” items…. spent $185, kids. And there was no meat in the cart. Yup. Then got a half tank of gas for $45.
I’ll go one further: My cars are paid for, I bought my house in 2001 with 20% down, household income is well above the NJ median, current total credit card bills is around $900, we live prudently and save and invest. Despite all of that, we’ve just about given up on trading up to another home. Done. Let ‘em f*cking rot. Anyone…. anyone… who even considers paying these still, laughable, pitiful, absurd, embarassing, appalling prices is insane.
Any offer you make should be 20% below the asking. Attach a check to the formal offer stating this is the best and final with a 48 hour decision. If nothing, their loss, not yours. They’ll ride the market down and the realtor will have yet another empty effort.
Gary:
When the bottom drops out, we’ll have a couple of beers to reminisce.
Monoline downgrades present multiple problems for banks
Lower credit ratings lowering the value of instruments they insured; $350 billion in issuance affected
“The ABS CDO segment, which many bond insurers entered during the high growth of subprime securities in 2005-2007, has potential for the largest additional write-downs due to pressure on monoline creditworthiness,” wrote S&P.
More than $100 billion of asset-backed CDOs—mostly super-senior tranches—are backed by credit default swaps. The contracts are primarily held by a small number of financial institutions, some of which have already been forced to take substantial valuation charges on the swaps.
Stu,
I’m pumped. :)
Mortgage Bonds Resume Stumble; Some Debt Approaches New Lows
By Jody Shenn
June 10 (Bloomberg) — Some of the U.S. mortgage bonds at the center of the yearlong credit crisis are slipping toward new lows, as climbing gas prices, unemployment and interest rates deepen concern that homeowner defaults will increase.
The benchmark Markit ABX index linked to the last-to-be- repaid of originally AAA rated non-agency subprime-mortgage bonds from the first half of 2007 fell today to a mid-price of 51.75, according to a note to clients from Merrill Lynch & Co., from almost 60 on May 19. Top-rated bonds of “option” adjustable- rate mortgages are also down, according to RBS Greenwich Capital.
So-called super-senior, or the safest, floating-rate bonds from 2006 and 2007 backed by option ARMs, whose minimum payments create growing loan balances, slipped last week to 73 cents to 78 cents per dollar of principal, according to a report yesterday by RBS Greenwich strategists Desmond Macauley and Joseph Ruszkowski. More-junior AAA classes were at 60 cents to 65 cents, they wrote, while similar securities from 2005 were in the “low 80s.”
In mid-March, super-senior option ARM securities typically were trading at about 78 cents, while more-junior AAA classes were at 55 to 68 cents, according to UBS AG analyst estimates at the time.
Gary: Fist pumped? :)
CNNMoney.com:
More financial land mines ahead
http://biz.yahoo.com/cnnm/080610/061008_next_financial_woe.html
“When Lehman Brothers reported a stunning $2.8 billion loss Monday, it was just the latest sign that bad mortgage loans continue to be a problem for the financial markets and the economy.
But subprime mortgages could only be the beginning. Many economists and market experts are worried that other problems are lurking that could cause a new credit crisis for consumers and businesses.”
Gary and Stu: Terrorist fist-jab? [/Faux Noise] (:-D)
Buying A House? Take Foreclosure Bus Tour
“I’ll go one further: My cars are paid for”
Gary,
Everything that dies, someday comes back.
http://www.flickr.com/photos/fintag/2556031056/sizes/l/
Desperate Households - USA
uh..the California congresswoman (of unknown political affiliation) who foreclosured on one house (and is facing foreclosure proceedings on several other homes), is now trying to get the house back and evict the new owner.
from calculated risk:
“WaMu has filed paperwork to rescind the foreclosure sale, and the man who bought the home is not happy”
Standard procedure, I’m sure. Most ethical congress ever.
Believe you me…
Houses we were looking at were far from spotless - We had named them lovingly: the “cat’s house: “the flooded house” “the roach house” “smoker’s house” and such…
All had 1950’s appliances, no updates inside since … I just do not know when. Still above 300K. 3/1 Ranches and capes.
When i was moving into my first apartment in 2005 i found and old real estate magazine from April 2001 while cleaning up the ol’ room. I was just as shocked at the prices in this mag than as today. I mean they had some pretty ELITE looking houses in Livingston and Millburn for around $350,000. I also saw NEW CONSTRUCTION in Scotch Plains for $140,000! So yes, things were MUCH simpler only 7 years ago, and anyone that says different is just naive. It doesn’ t seem like a long time does it? If i buy i need to close at under $300,000, it’ll make me feel better i think.
HEHE
regarding iran….
a friend of mine who is still in the service ( army) swears that we have have been running black-on-black operations against iran for the last 6 months at least (black-on-black = special forces, i.e low intensity warfare)
and to answer your question from the other day, i think that there are 2 factions in the government. 1 wants to go into iran the other doesnt. I hope faction 2 ins. If we go into iran there is a high probability of nukes being tossed around. and even if we only use conventional weapons, do you really think that china and russia and gonig to sit by quietly? they may not take overt action, but they would supply iran and mostly attack us economically. if we go into iran it will be the fall of the US military. Iran knows that in a head to head fight it cannot match our firepower, but they have already said that they would make us pay for every inch we take and would initiate extensive guerilla operations against global US targets. you cannot defend against that.
njpatient Says:
June 10th, 2008 at 3:10 pm
” My leg was right out in the middle of the street. I remember lying in the gutter, all bleeding and shaking, staring at my leg, right next to a beer can, and I remember thinking: that’s my leg. I wonder if there’s any beer in that can?”
Sounds just like Heather Mills recalling when HER leg got ripped off.
if mccain takes office i think we will go to war with iran. i think it is possible but more likely that we will not go to war with iran before the elections
Spyder (90),
Another knock down
2719859 Withdrawn
ACT 56 PLEASANT ST $1,588,000 5/16/2007
PCH 56 PLEASANT ST $1,549,888 5/31/2007
W-C 56 PLEASANT ST $1,549,888 8/31/2007
2735648 Withdrawn (Same broker/agent)
ACT 56 PLEASANT ST $1,499,900 9/3/2007
PCH 56 PLEASANT ST $1,494,000 11/9/2007
PCH 56 PLEASANT ST $1,495,000 11/12/2007
PCH 56 PLEASANT ST $1,520,000 12/20/2007
PCH 56 PLEASANT ST $1,435,000 1/21/2008
W-U 56 PLEASANT ST $1,435,000 2/29/2008
2808232 Active (Same broker/ new agent)
ACT 56 PLEASANT ST $1,369,000 2/29/2008
Deed $682,000 7/26/2005
Mortgage $570,000 8/2/2005
Mortgage $560,000 9/14/2005
Mortgage $300,000 12/19/2006
Mortgage $1,100,000 5/4/2007
‘07 Taxes: $6,984.50
#128 - The US would be nuts to go after Iran. Their army is tough, ours is exhausted. We would look like morons and Russia would have a great excuse to jump in to “rescue the world from American expansionism”. We have NO political capital in the world to make that work. None, nada, and no money either and barring a draft not much in the way of manpower.
#130 - was reading through my stack of Newsweeks and came across an article mentioning a McCain speech where he wanted to start sanctioning/excluding/going after both Russia and China, totally bizarre and not particularly wise. I wasn’t impressed.
#128 kettle: This is obvious and there is nothing new or strange about it. Iran has special operatives in Iraq killing US forces and it is arming and training militants. Naturally, US is (as it should be) conducting “low intensity warfare” against Iran. (Not to mention the various terrorist strikes by Iran, in which US citizens has died).
Also, there are always several opinions (for every issue) among high-level government officials so I’m not sure what is your point.
As for nukes being used: WTF? The probability for that is zero (at least until Iran get the nukes).
The probability of major war in the middle east is about 100%. The only question is when exactly and on whose terms. If US does not act, Israel will.
Old Tappan FUTURE Comp Killer!
2609411 Sold
SLD 6 OLD CHURCH CT $1,374,000 7/10/2006
2823607 Active
ACT 6 OLD CHURCH CT $1,298,777 6/10/2008
#124 BC Bob
What is really scary about that photo is that between Feb 1969 and Oct 1971 they price jumped from 40c to 50c.
re: #130 kettle1 -
This is a more of a war of words. McCain is doing is a very bad impression of Ronald Regan right now and he should have his speech writers shot.
PGC [136],
That’s when Arthur Burns decided to get cute and strip energy/food out of the cpi, headline, #.
Jamil,
good to see that i still have a solid counter point out there. it forces you to think your arguments through a little more :)
re nukes,
current info suggests that our best bunker busters could not reach the primary targets we would want to hit n iran, they are buried to deep and to heavily shielded for conventional weapons. They ave been proposing nuke bunker busters for years. the pressure wave that a nuke creates allow it to take out extremely deep bunkers that conventional weapons cannot touch. even without bunker buster nukes, there is the suggestion that an appropriately sized regular nuke could do the job by causing large enough seismic waves to collapse bunkers.
Jamil,
if isreal has nukes ( and they have quite a few) then what is wrong with Iran having nukes? Although this is a somewhat pointless question, as our own intelligence agencies have told us that the Iranians stopped their nuke program years ago.
It does seem that the only countries we arent willing to “bring democracy to” are nuclear states
oopppss
It does seem that the only countries we arent willing to “bring democracy to” are non-nuclear states
I thought most of you nancy boys have your downpayment money in the money market waiting for housing to bottom. If that is the case higher rates will get you better rates on your money market and higher mortgages rate cause home prices to go down. You guys should pray for 14% mortgages!!
It is true that you can now leave NJ. My brother is job hunting and no American US based company is hiring. He has interviews for jobs in England and the Netherlands and a few foreign banks with satelite offices in NY.
Citi, Merril, Chase, Lehman the list goes on are dead. The skill set of being a banker for a US based bank is almost as usefull as having token clerk on your resume.
That said. You still are somewhat limted where you move, if there is no international airport nearby you will have trouble getting to work. My brother will just wrap up his last ten years of work Mexican Gardner style with him going overseas to earn the money which he sends back to his own impoverished country the good old USA.
“sanctioning/excluding/going after both Russia and China”
Do you have a reference? That would be totally stupid. I thought both our relations and the Russia’s actions in the world were getting better.
China on the other hand, if it weren’t for them providing us cheap goods, we probably would have sanctioned them years ago. But you know, we just have to have the ability to buy sneakers at 48 cents to sell to kids for 48 bucks.
I thought most of you nancy boys have your downpayment money in the money market waiting for housing to bottom. If that is the case higher rates will get you better rates on your money market and higher mortgages rate cause home prices to go down. You guys should pray for 14% mortgages!!
Mortgage rates fluctuate and you can always refinance. You can’t rebuy your house.
kettle: Yes, I’m aware of the limitations of bunker busters but this is hardly breaking news. There are several ways to deal with the nuke sites (e.g. from special forces to a week-long traditional air bombing destroying one layer at a time). In anycase, US military (and Israel, and pretty much every Sunni country) is planning this right now.
Btw, the head of the biggest Sunni tribe in Iraq is now offering to help US forces in Afghanistan and beyond. US (and Israelis) have a lot of spies and allies in the region. Also, few years ago a poll (done by a group linked to former Iranian president) showed that majority of Iranians supported US invasion of Iran in order to get rid of the mullahs. This reflects the general attitude in Iran, but of course, nobody knows how things would go in the case of war.
Anyway, there will be a major war (regardless what US does).
I happen to think that the world is a better place without genocide-advocating lunatics having nukes. If anybody have any ideas how to do it peacefully (after 20 years of appeasement), please share your thoughts.
I happen to think that the world is a better place without genocide-advocating lunatics having nukes
are suggesting we dissolve the US presidency????
heading off to Londonistan today, hopefully time for some house-hunting in the weekend (hmm, or is flat-hunting in the UK?)
Jamil,
i agree that major war in that region is only a matter of time and who takes what side.
Kettle,
I don’t think there’s enough people in the Bush administration that want a ground war with Iran. I see the hawks having the Israelis pull a similar deal to what they had them pull when they bombed Saddam’s reactor. I think we or Israel must have pretty good intel someplace in Iran because if I remember correctly the Israeli’s took out Syria’s special package from Iran a few months ago.
I still don’t think Russia or China would give a crap. They need Mideast oil as much as we do and most countries don’t even have the means to process it as its mostly sour crude. Russia collects a big hefty profit when oil spikes due to any saber rattling in the ME. They’ll probably raise a big stink but I doubt they’ll do anything else.
Having said all that I am by no means for any sort of action against Iran. I am just saying I see bits of news here and there that when I put them together it makes me worry quite a bit. Especially given the administrations past actions.
“SAN FRANCISCO (MarketWatch) — Global oil consumption climbed 37% less than expected during the first quarter of this year, and lower U.S. oil demand is expected to continue weighing on the outlook, a monthly government report said Tuesday.”
“Consumption of oil worldwide was up a lower than expected 630,000 barrels per day during the first quarter of 2008 compared with year-ago levels, according to the latest energy-outlook report from the Energy Information Administration, the U.S. Energy Department’s reporting arm.”
http://www.marketwatch.com/news/story/us-cutbacks-help-rein-global/story.aspx?guid=%7BF4A5C7E7%2D4ACA%2D4C4C%2D8F80%2DDB7380DFA8D4%7D&tool=1&dist=bigcharts&
jamit, the housing market in the UK appears to be going through similar issues.
“heading off to Londonistan today, hopefully time for some house-hunting in the weekend (hmm, or is flat-hunting in the UK?)”
Hope you are not buying with US dollars.
152 BC Bob: Nope..luckily, I have decent amount left in non-US demoninated currencies. Anyway, I’m not buying yet. Still looking if I stay in the US or not. London is one potential alternative (but I just learned of the tax challenges after you have lived 7 years in the UK).
Unfortunately, house prices are equally ridiculous in most places I could live.
One thing I like about London: Families can live (in houses, with small garden) in downtown London (and use bikes or public transportation, and walk everywhere).
Ho-Ho-Kus FUTURE Comp Killer!
2540287 Sold
SLD 333 RACETRACK RD $620,000 2/27/2006
2811896 Active
ACT 333 RACETRACK RD $659,900 3/25/2008
PCH 333 RACETRACK RD $624,500 3/30/2008
PCH 333 RACETRACK RD $609,900 5/4/2008
PCH 333 RACETRACK RD $599,900 6/10/2008
Re #96
gotta concur re Oakland - town cant be that “blue ribbon” when the Ramapo rover routinely floods them out!
126 jamil
“Standard procedure, I’m sure. ”
Actually, yes, it is - in most states, someone who is being foreclosed often has the right to make good on their loan, and subsequent buyers take subject to that right (at least this is what I remember from my first year property law course, which is admittedly a long time ago).
130 kettle
Agree, and I’ve been hearing the same things you have.
145 jamil
“Btw, the head of the biggest Sunni tribe in Iraq is now offering to help US forces in Afghanistan and beyond.”
You mean the folks who are grateful to us for having knocked them out of power and having handed the country to their main enemies?
“Also, few years ago a poll (done by a group linked to former Iranian president) showed that majority of Iranians supported US invasion of Iran in order to get rid of the mullahs.”
A few years ago, polls showed that Howard Dean was going to the the Democratic presidential nominee.
A few years ago, the US hadn’t just invaded and occupied multiple middle-eastern countries with disastrous consequences both for those countries and for the US.
The results of a poll taken this week might be a wee bit different.
John Says:
June 10th, 2008 at 1:50 pm
Hey Chicago Finance, this is tempting me. Is the market really pricing in a complete default of wamu in the next 22 months to get this an over 10% yield. Even for Wamu this seems like a heck of a rate.
JJ: Dude….why? Even if you hit a mega-grand-slam….how much money are you really going to make? It’s freaking fixed income….use fixed income for fixed income purposes, not because you have a rumble in your shorts…….you are in finance and I think you are getting bored. If you want to mess with something, have it be serially uncorrelated with your job…..
Yet again looking for advice…(sigh)
This time it’s lawyer type advice. (would be happy to trade for medical type advice in the future.)
I was given a referral to contact a lawyer in Fla regarding my incompetent mother’s estate. My sisters and I spoke with them 5 or 6 times and asked for fee information so we could decide if we wanted to retain them.
They never once told us they were going to bill us for this time (to the tune of nearly $6K. We gave no verbal or written agreement and decided we weren’t pursuing guardianship.
How do I address this?
Thanks in advance.
sl
#115 gary: In keeping with you spirit, I offer you this brand new listing in prestigious blue ribbon River Edge. (Only recent buyers from NY, realtors, and some delusional long time residents really believe that)
Just when I was saying to myself thta asking prices in River Edge are starting to reflect at least some reality.
I guess some realtors/sellers still habe not gotten the message, but they will.
Please feel free to comment on this delightful listing.
njmls.com mls # 2823437
What happened to pret & bi?
“I guess some realtors/sellers still habe not gotten the message, but they will.”
While a lot of people may either be deluding themselves or are being deluded by others, there are people actively trying to keep houses afloat inspite of reality.
Bubbles are bubbles. Like I said before similar things happened during the tech bubble. The tech bubble didn’t burst overnight, while some companies did collapse in a relatively short period of time, it took maybe 2 years for things to get back inline.
And the people “in the know” don’t share the information. It wasn’t uncommon to hear stories of people showing up to work one day and the doors were locked. Sometimes there was a message on the door.
Even though brokers and executives knew what was happening they kept secret to keep their stock prices afloat until they could cash out.
The writing’s on the wall. House prices are not inline with incomes. Barring a 50% increase in the average american’s income (very unlikely), house prices are going to come down. By a lot. I’m talking 25% minimum.
House prices are at an unaffordable rate and lenders are hurting from giving out loans that were too big.
Anyone who says otherwise is either naive or has something to gain.
Strawman
#159 cf
Good call.
Strawman, here is a classic piece of advice for someone in your situation
“Your average Wall Streeter, faced with nothing profitable to do, does nothing for only a brief time. Then, suddenly and hysterically, he does something which turns out to be extremely unprofitable. He is not a lazy man.
For one thing, customers have an unfortunate habit of asking about the financial future. Now if you do someone the signal honor of asking him a difficult question, you may be assured that you will get a detailed answer. Rarely will it be the most difficult of all answers — “I don’t know.”
There was always a scattering of bears, “aginners” by temperament, who spent their business days having their ears knocked off. Many of them, bowing to a force which finally seemed cosmic, switched to being bulls at a sadly late period in the era. The remainder who were still short at the time of the crash covered too soon (as who wouldn’t?). Then, after prices had gone inconceivably lower, they took their profits and bought stocks (as who wouldn’t?). In due course of time, if they bought on margin, they went to “the Cleaners,” that mythical establishment to which their brother speculators had repaired some time earlier. “The Cleaners” was not one of those exclusive clubs; by 1932, everybody who had ever tried speculation had been admitted to membership.”
“What happened to pret & bi?”
Good question.
With respect to the latter, perhaps being wrong got tiresome.
last comments in AA lounge..
#158 njpatient:
“You mean the folks who are grateful to us for having knocked them out of power and having handed the country to their main enemies?”
Yes. Iraqis, even sunnis, are grateful for US military.
Iraqi Sheik Offers To Take Fight to Bin Laden
WASHINGTON — The leader of the tribal confederation that has fought to expel Al Qaeda from most of Iraq’s Anbar province is offering his men to help gin up a rebellion against Osama bin Laden’s organization along the Afghanistan-Pakistan border.
In an interview, Sheik Ahmad al-Rishawi told The New York Sun that in April he prepared a 47-page study on Afghanistan and its tribes for the deputy chief of mission at the American embassy in Kabul, Christopher Dell. When asked if he would send military advisers to Afghanistan to assist American troops fighting there, he said: “I have no problem with this; if they ask me, I will do it.”
Of his meeting with Mr. Bush, Sheik Ahmad said he was impressed. “He is a brave man. He is also a wise man. He is taking care of the country’s future, the United States’ future. He is also taking care of the Iraqi people, the ordinary people in Iraq. He wants to accomplish success in Iraq.”
The sheik said he was leaving for Chicago in part to meet with agriculture experts in the hopes of learning new farming techniques for Western Iraq. He said he would like to meet Senator Obama though he has not asked for a meeting. He also said he would like to meet Mr. Obama’s rival for the 2008 presidential election, Senator McCain.
The SUV discussion was a couple days ago but this might be interesting to some.
Rising Gas Prices Finally Kill The Once-Mighty SUV
Car makers are going to take a big hit because the profit margins on SUV’s were WAAAAAAAAAAAY bigger than on cars.
Just got back into town, was traveling most of the day.
Sorry about the server issues.
#165 jamil: There is no country called Iraq. It is an artifical creation cobbled together at the end of WW I.
If Lebanon another artificial creation cannot get its act together, neither will Iraq.
3b: luckily, iraqis do not agree. Read the interview above..
can any one tell me the price history for this house?
7 Piermont Road Rockleigh, NJ 07647.
Thanks.
Lebanon has its act together except for when outside parties meddle. Throughout its history Lebanon has been at the crossroads and Lebanese people have generally been skilled at commerce and trade. The Lebanese diaspora has a talent for making money wherever they land, and Beirut can become a commercial center again if Israel and Syria (and Hamas / Hezbollah) stop using it as a battlefield.
The British literally drew the Iraqi borders on the map after WW 1 to keep oil out of French hands. Iraq has no legitimacy, no identity, no history of anything approaching democracy, and not surprisingly fell under the rule of a strongman because only a thug could keep the factions in line.
http://www.ebri.org/pdf/publications/facts/0607fact.pdf
Lets hope home prices work out as pensions
John.
Come to the GTG.
That is all.
I hear AT&T raised there rates just before the release of the new & “cheaper” iPod?
lol
SAS
Good luck in London. I lost my shirt on a flat.
However, I did pretty good in Manchester.
SAS
count me in on this one!
“Paul to hold rival event during GOP convention”
http://tinyurl.com/3j4thc
SAS
“Lets hope home prices work out as pensions”
You home home prices drop to 16% of their all time high?
That’s an interesting document. It shows that individual’s retirement savings have shifted from company backed pensions towards individual contributions to 401k plans.
What would be interesting to know is if companies that are abandoning their pension plans are still giving the same amount to their employees, either through employee matching funds or through increases in salary.
Search on BLS AND EMPLOYER COST TOTAL COMPENSATION
Here’s 06
http://www.bls.gov/news.release/archives/ecec_12132006.pdf
Westwood Comp Killer!
2526767 Sold
SLD 881 WESTWOOD AVE $645,000 11/18/2005
2805779 Sold
ACT 881 WESTWOOD AVE $649,000 2/11/2008
PCH 881 WESTWOOD AVE $624,000 3/20/2008
ACT* 881 WESTWOOD AVE $624,000 3/28/2008
U/C 881 WESTWOOD AVE $624,000 4/9/2008
SLD 881 WESTWOOD AVE $599,000 6/10/2008
Ooops, that was supposed to be River Vale
Tom Says:
June 10th, 2008 at 4:56 pm
“sanctioning/excluding/going after both Russia and China”
“Do you have a reference? That would be totally stupid. I thought both our relations and the Russia’s actions in the world were getting better.”
Newsweek, Fareed Zakharia article, from May I think. You’ll need to Google it. He was disappointed the speech hadn’t really been focussed on with all the Hillary/Obama fuss.
jmacdaddio Says:
June 10th, 2008 at 9:18 pm
“Lebanon has its act together except for when outside parties meddle. ”
Not entirely true. I have some very dear Lebanese friends who fairly frequently express their disappointment that internally, Lebanese people are Christian/Sunni/Shiite/Druze first and Lebanese second. That lack of a unifying nationalism is the root of much of their problems. And don’t forget that while Hizbullah is funded by Iran, they are indeed a local group.
I truly hope they do get their act together, the country has a wonderful history and amazing potential, but the Lebanese people are Lebanons biggest problem. Until they actually stand up and do what’s best for Lebanon first, they won’t get anywhere. I know a lot of the Lebanese diaspora who feel the same way.
kettle1 Says:
June 10th, 2008 at 4:49 pm
Jamil,
“if isreal has nukes ( and they have quite a few) then what is wrong with Iran having nukes?”
Ket - I try to keep out of this for a variety of obvious reasons, but this one is just too simplistic and jingoistic to ignore.
Due to basic geography and local weather conditions (winds from the desert to the east), Israels nukes are truly a weapon of last resort as they would inevitably poison that country and most Israelis realize this. The power of Israeli nukes is less in their existance and more in the IDEA of their existance in the fertile imaginations of the region. And even in existance - how many times has Israel used them in the past 35 odd years? Hardly a desparate threat.
The statement also relies on the concept that there are two balancing powers in the middle east - and you know I believe that this is patently untrue. Exclude Israel from the equation and you have many different power players and interests. The Sunni world, led by the Saudis also does not want to see Iran with nukes and if Iran developed them, you can bet that unstable Egypt, drunk on the memories of Nasserite pride and prestige would want them too.
It’s not an issue of dual balancing powers. It is a question of a multitude of nations, not necessarily friendly to each other, jostling for power and prestige in the Arab world. It would be the spark that would ignite a whole new arms race in the middle east.
I’m a lot less convinced than most that Israel is going to rush in to do the States dirty work in Iran. Bibi himself told one of the neocons “working groups” to shove off when they pushed this idea on to him, and he is hardly a left winger. The idea is a major wet dream of the right, including some in the Israeli right, but they have plenty to lose and Lebanon 2 was deeply unpopular. Israel tends to go for short sharp shocks, not protracted wars.
soosh, I really need to get my friend H__a on here to tell her story. She was born in Lebanon, but attended a trashy high school with me in the US after becoming the beneficiary of a deceased wealthy relative. She returned to Lebanon, her heart, but ran away to Syria, where she secretly married a handsome Syrian military operative. She was smuggled to a Syrian village, treated horribly by the Syrian family, and managed to escape with her husband, blanket-covered, in the back of a taxi. She then made it back to the US.
He now works for an insulation manufacturer, and she’s happily working in NEPA. Their grown children are beautiful.
People like Hana must go back and save Lebanon. But they are tired, and not a little afraid.
Oh, my. Excuse my words. I was off of work today, and a neighbor and I sat outside with wine and watched the lightening.
Pat Says:
June 10th, 2008 at 11:52 pm
“People like Hana must go back and save Lebanon. But they are tired, and not a little afraid.”
Pat - I absolutely believe you. The Lebanese diaspora is full of talented, tired people who just want to get on with their lives and not have to deal with the BS.
#191: lisoosh: Lebanon IMO is not salvageable.
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