Thu 12 Jun 2008
The long awaited Gold Coast Get Together! Don’t miss it!
June 14th, 2008 at 5pm
The Brass Rail
135 Washington St
Hoboken, NJ 07030
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From the NY Post:
FORECLOSURES HIT NYC LIKE A BRICK
How big has New York City’s foreclosure problem become?
“Two years ago, there were just a few selected ZIP codes where [foreclosures] were bad,” says Matthew Haines, the founder of PropertyShark.com, which tracks foreclosures in the five boroughs. “Now there are whole areas - areas that contain 12 or 15 ZIP codes - that are really bad.”
With foreclosures hitting the five boroughs hard, even responsible homeowners are going to feel the pinch. Just one foreclosed house can bring down property values on an entire block.
On the other hand, if you’re looking to buy a home in one of the city’s more distressed areas, your chances of finding a deal are increasing. That’s because the number of foreclosures and mortgage delinquencies only seems to be getting higher.
…
And while many real-estate professionals insist New York is immune to wider market woes, the city’s latest foreclosure data is cause for concern.“If you look at the map, more than 50 percent of the surface area of New York City is in foreclosure trouble,” says Haines.
In the first quarter of 2007, there were 554 foreclosures citywide. In the first quarter of 2008 there were 918 - a 66 percent uptick.
And homeowners looking to sell their houses in foreclosure-heavy areas are feeling the squeeze.
“I have a listing in St. Albans, [Queens],” says Anthony Carollo of Carollo Real Estate. “Their asking price was $399,000 [seven months ago], and they couldn’t sell it. We got it in April, and we started at $369,000.”
That house was a well maintained, three-bedroom frame Colonial that had not been foreclosed on - but several other houses nearby had been. And the banks were trying to get those properties off their hands as quickly as possible.
“We’ve been going up against homes that banks were willing to sell for $75,000 less,” says Carollo. “The bank doesn’t want to own the property. They don’t want to spend the money maintaining it or the legal fees.”
As for the listing in St. Albans: “We just dropped the price again, to $339,000.”
Data from May suggests the foreclosure problem is getting worse. New York City foreclosures overall were up 49.8 percent last month compared to May 2007. Queens saw 177 foreclosures, Brooklyn had 55, Staten Island had 47, and The Bronx had 20. Even Manhattan didn’t walk away unscathed - it counted 14 foreclosures.
June 12th, 2008 at 6:19 am
From the NY Times:
Housing Slump Helps the Draw of Fixer-Upper TV
The housing market is collapsing, but television shows about housing are booming.
The audiences for HGTV and TLC, the two channels with the most so-called property programming, have grown steadily over the last three years. The reason appears to be their shift in focus away from buying real estate as speculative sport to more educational and emotional shows.
“If anything, there’s more interest than ever before, because of what’s going on in the market,” Jim Samples, the president of HGTV, said.
…
Shows that were hallmarks of the bubble — like “Flip That House” (on TLC) and “Flip This House” (on A&E) — are still around, but have been retooled with less-than-happy endings. The TLC episodes are repeated several times each week and still draw an average of 700,000 viewers a showing.
“People loved comedies during the depression, too,” said R. J. Cutler, executive producer of “Flip That House.”
June 12th, 2008 at 6:20 am
From the LA Times:
Bank shot could pay off for Shaq
He has dubbed himself Superman, the Diesel, the Big Aristotle and Shaq-Fu among other nicknames.
If Shaquille O’Neal’s latest proposed venture works out, he might also become known as the Big Fannie Mae.
O’Neal told the Orlando Sentinel that he wanted to help people facing foreclosure on their homes.
“I want to come in not to kick them out, but to work with them and save them so they can stay in their homes,” O’Neal said during a visit to Orlando City Hall.
Attorney Mark NeJame told the Sentinel that O’Neal wants to buy the mortgages of homeowners who have slipped into foreclosure because of high interest rates. The Phoenix Suns center would sell the homes back with more affordable terms, hoping to make a small profit.
“He’s become a businessman with a conscience,” NeJame said.
O’Neal remains conscious of opportunity: According to the Sentinel, he would like to develop a TV reality show based on his Orlando project and call it “Shaq’s Big Save,” a sequel to a 2007 weight-loss show, “Shaq’s Big Challenge.”
June 12th, 2008 at 6:21 am
From the Washington Post:
Economy Remains Sluggish, Fed Says
Weaker attendance at Broadway theaters. Cutbacks at retailers in the southeast. A residential real estate market that is still in the dumps throughout most of the nation.
A new report from the Federal Reserve paints a portrait of a U.S. economy under pressure from almost every direction — growth is slow, consumers and businesses are stressed by high fuel prices and banks are more reluctant to lend money.
“Economic activity remained generally weak in late April and May,” said the Fed’s “beige book,” a compilation of anecdotal reports from businesses across the country. Three of the Fed’s 12 regions reported economic activity that was “softer, weaker, or lower,” and four reported “slower, sluggish, or modest” growth. The remaining districts described their regional economies as little changed in recent weeks.
June 12th, 2008 at 6:23 am
From the Record:
Tests reveal chemical vapors that may invade homes
A decades-old plume of underground pollution is back to haunt Pompton Lakes, and this time it may be invading as many as 350 homes.
Tests in a neighborhood near DuPont’s former explosives factory grounds show that chemical vapors are emanating from groundwater pollution that is a legacy of the factory’s 92 years of operation. The pollution has defied DuPont’s ongoing, $130 million efforts to clean the area.
June 12th, 2008 at 6:23 am
From Bloomberg:
FBI Halts Some Financial Cases to Investigate Mortgage Fraud
The U.S. Federal Bureau of Investigation, confronting a surge in mortgage fraud, has ordered more than two dozen of its field offices to stop probing some financial crimes so agents can focus on the subprime crisis.
Kenneth Kaiser, chief of the bureau’s criminal investigative division, issued the directive late last week on a video conference call with the heads of 26 offices in areas where mortgage crime is rampant, said Bill Carter, an FBI spokesman in Washington.
Carter said the shift was made after an analysis of how agents are spending their time. The FBI traditionally has moved investigators to address urgent needs, he said. About 150 agents were working on more than 1,300 mortgage cases before the change.
“If you’re seeing a significant crime problem, you have to move resources,” Carter said yesterday. “We’ve got a big problem with mortgage fraud.”
June 12th, 2008 at 6:24 am
From the WSJ:
Mortgagers’ Dual Roles Clash
June 12, 2008; Page A2
Richard Syron, the blunt chief executive of mortgage giant Freddie Mac, often refers to his company and its bigger sibling, Fannie Mae, as “odd ducks.”
That’s for sure. Freddie and Fannie are ungainly hybrids. They are part shareholder-owned profit-making companies, part government agencies with a mission to make mortgages cheaper and more widely available.
And they are huge — much bigger than Bear Stearns, the investment bank whose collapse, we were told, threatened the entire financial system.
The housing bust is heightening the tension between the two parts of the hybrid. Falling house prices and rising delinquencies weaken the companies financially, raising concerns about their stability and the risks they pose to taxpayers. After all, their entire business is housing. But the past year also underscores the societal importance of their mission — making home ownership more affordable for lower- and middle-class families and rescuing the economy when housing goes bust.
The basic deal has been this: Fannie and Freddie make big profits for shareholders and pay high salaries. Shareholders benefit because Fannie and Freddie borrow more heavily than other financial companies and more cheaply, because everyone who lends them money assumes — correctly — that the U.S. government stands behind their debt. (Based on recent public filings, Freddie Mac and Fannie Mae have a debt-to-equity ratio — a measure of how leveraged they are — of 27.6 and 19.6, respectively. By contrast, the ratio at Bank of America and J.P. Morgan Chase is about 3.9.)
In exchange for their borrowing advantages, Fannie and Freddie and their shareholders agree to promote affordable housing — even when it isn’t a great business — to be in the mortgage market when no one else wants to be, and to submit to regulation.
“We’re trapped between these two worlds. It’s a good general caution about this fascination with public-private partnerships: The private sector gets rich and the public sector gets something, but the something may not be worth the government subsidy,” says Douglas Elmendorf, a Brookings Institution economist.
June 12th, 2008 at 6:25 am
From the WSJ:
SEC Backs Changes In Rules on Ratings
Plan Would Bring Greater Disclosure; Key Firms Back It
By KARA SCANNELL and AARON LUCCHETTI
June 12, 2008; Page C2
The Securities and Exchange Commission recommended sweeping changes to the bond-rating business, the latest moves in Washington to address the causes of the subprime meltdown.
Among the proposals, the SEC would require credit-rating firms to make more information about ratings publicly available, would ban some practices and would require firms to clearly distinguish between corporate or government debt and the more complex structured products at the heart of the financial crisis.
The three largest rating firms, by market share, Moody’s Corp., McGraw-Hill Cos.’ Standard & Poor’s unit, and Fimalac SA’s Fitch Ratings broadly welcomed the SEC’s move. Two groups that represent investor interests, the Council of Institutional Investors and the CFA Institute Centre for Financial Market Integrity, said they believed separate scales for structured-finance bonds and greater transparency would benefit investors.
But others, including Wall Street firms and mortgage associations, are concerned that a new scale could cause investors to dump structured debt at fire-sale prices. At the same time, they worry that demand for those products, which are already hard to trade, would further diminish.
June 12th, 2008 at 6:27 am
From MarketWatch:
Thornburg swings to 1st-quarter loss, raises capital
Thornburg Mortgage Inc., the Santa Fe., N.M., mortgage lender, swung to a first-quarternet loss before preferred-stock dividends of $3.31 billion, or $20.64 a share, from net income of $75 million, or 62 cents, in the year-earlier period. The loss reflects unrealized market-value losses of $1.54 billion from the decline in the fair-market value of the company’s mortgage-backed securities and securitized loan portfolios, Thornburg said. Analysts surveyed by FactSet Research were looking for a loss of $3.36 a share.
June 12th, 2008 at 6:29 am
From the WSJ:
Citigroup to Close Hedge Fund; Blow to CEO
By DAVID ENRICH and JENNY STRASBURG
June 12, 2008; Page A1
Citigroup Inc. is closing a hedge fund co-founded by Chief Executive Vikram Pandit, 11 months after Citigroup bought the fund’s management company for more than $800 million.
Old Lane Partners has been dogged by mediocre returns and the loss of top managers. Citigroup plans to shut it and buy what is left of its assets, according to people familiar with the matter.
Mr. Pandit personally reaped at least $165 million when Citigroup bought Old Lane in July 2007, following its founding the previous year. At the time, many large banks and brokerages saw hedge funds as a lucrative new business. Citigroup was also willing to pay a premium to land Mr. Pandit, who quickly moved up the ladder and became chief executive in December.
But as the fund struggled, Citigroup was forced to choose between pumping new money into it or shutting it down. That created an awkward situation for the new CEO. Mr. Pandit removed himself from the deliberations to avoid the perception of a conflict of interest.
June 12th, 2008 at 6:39 am
Who was it who said “New York City prices can’t go down - its too close to New York City.”
But seriously, I think Manhattan prices will for the most part hold up (and by Manhattan I mean certain neighborhoods in Manhattan, I think the financial district is showing “real” signs of weakness) as (based purely on anecdotal experience) wall street layoffs disproportionately affect those who couldnt afford manhattan to begin with (the analyst and jr associate set at banks and their equivalent in related businesses).
June 12th, 2008 at 6:54 am
From CNBC:
Abu Dhabi And Chrysler Building: Get The Irony Of It All?
Is it just me or is there some bitter irony to the fact that the Abu Dhabi Investment Council is reportedly buying a 75% stake in the Chrysler Building for $800 million?
Yes, as you stand there, sweating under the heat of the summer sun and the stress of the $60 dollars you’re likely spending to top off your tank, you can take heart in the fact that your money is helping to fuel Manhattan’s commercial real estate market.
Here is a building, completed in 1930 and built to house the headquarters of the once-great American auto manufacturer, being sold to the folks who are holding a death-grip on America’s wallets. But why should I be surprised? Didn’t the wealth funds of Kuwait and Qatar help to juice a record price for the GM building?? We all know oil goes with cars, but this is taking things a bit far.
…
After all, who would have thought that a cruddy financial product designed to get less-than-credit-worthy borrowers into homes they couldn’t afford, would wind up spiraling into a situation ripe for Middle East oil money to buy up one of the great symbols of American industry and prosperity? Just my thoughts today.
June 12th, 2008 at 6:54 am
“Morgan Stanley ups U.S. financials to neutral”
I bet MS will now stop lay offs?
June 12th, 2008 at 7:03 am
Chrysler building is a big scam, as Cooper Union doesn’t pay taxes on it, even though the building (clearly) isn’t used for non-profit purposes. At least these guys will actually pay property taxes, as they don’t have some wacky non-profit law exempting them.
June 12th, 2008 at 7:06 am
How bad off is MS. I had a meeting their yesterday,,, looked like half the floor was empty… was the summer,,, or excess office space. meeting was in NYC
June 12th, 2008 at 7:09 am
grim (9)-
The American Way: f*ck up and move up.
June 12th, 2008 at 7:10 am
More polite people call it “failing forward”.
June 12th, 2008 at 7:21 am
A mile away from rail? This is really pushing the definition of “transit village”, no?
From the Star Ledger:
Piscataway gives green light to ‘transit village’
The 33-acre Fairway Golf Center in Piscataway is slated for redevelopment into a “transit village” with a mix of 331 residential units, retail stores and restaurants after the project recently received approval from the township planning board.
Piscataway officials are promoting the development at Stelton and Ethel roads as the start of a much-needed restoration of that section of the township along the border with Edison. The property is owned by prominent Middlesex County developer Jack Morris and his company, Edgewood Properties.
The “Fairways at Piscataway,” would include four three-story buildings. Retail, office and restaurant space would occupy the bottom floors with 136 residential rental units on the top two floors. The rest of the complex would include townhouses and condominiums sprawling across the property. The complex would provide 76 units for affordable housing.
To maintain the transit village appeal, Fairways would provide a shuttle service to the Edison Rail Station, about a mile away. The current mini-golf course would remain, but the rest of the current golf complex would be demolished. A pool and clubhouse would be built. There would also be space for community police.
June 12th, 2008 at 7:26 am
‘”We’ve been going up against homes that banks were willing to sell for $75,000 less,” says Carollo.’
I’m liking the $75k REO discount theory.
I’ve also found it on two separate sets of comparable REO/Non-reo resales in the $325-425 range in Bucks County.
Does anyone know if $75k came out of some black box, or just out of someone’s @ss?
June 12th, 2008 at 7:27 am
Fairways at Piscataway
more like
Projects at P-Way
June 12th, 2008 at 7:35 am
Re: 17: Transit Village. Is it possible they might think of building sidewalks/bike trails so commuters could walk/peddle the one mile to the train station?
Re: 10: Weakness on Wall Street. I have an overseas friend who is considering buying a unit at 75 Wall. Are prices really weakening?
June 12th, 2008 at 7:38 am
From Fitch:
Fitch U.S. Housing Update - Disappointing Spring; Negative Momentum Rules in 2008 and into 2009
The housing downturn continues to have ‘legs’, and most of the statistical data reported so far in 2008 are discouraging, according to Fitch Ratings. The spring selling season was a ‘bust’. Although it does not appear likely that the year-over-year declines in major metrics such as starts, new home sales, and existing home sales will continue at the current pronounced pace throughout this year, the decreases are likely to be greater than Fitch’s prior projections. Perhaps more important, initial projections for 2009 are for further slippage in starts and new home sales. The three specters: poor buyer psychology, easing pricing, and excessive inventories, are likely to mitigate other modestly to moderately positive developments. Tightened credit standards should continue to largely offset improving affordability.
…
Typically, there are positives and negatives relating to the housing sector at any point in time, but negatives continue to dominate.
June 12th, 2008 at 7:40 am
Blood/Laughing…if I wasn’t working today, we could hit the courthouse and see what that house over on Colonial [off the Bypass] by you goes for? It’s still active for today.
June 12th, 2008 at 7:54 am
“Bank sector in turmoil as HBOS share price falls”
“The British banking sector was thrown into fresh uncertainty yesterday as underwriters to the huge HBOS rights issue were faced with the prospect of being lumbered with £4 billion of unwanted shares.”
“Shares in Royal Bank of Scotland, Barclays and Alliance & Leicester, as well as HBOS, sank to levels not plumbed in at least eight years as London faced the possibility of the biggest equity capital flop since the BP fiasco of 1987.”
“The fresh alarm was triggered when HBOS shares dropped below the 275p price at which it plans to issue £4 billion worth of new stock in five weeks, closing at 258p, down 12 per cent.”
“Unless the share price recovers, the underwriters, Morgan Stanley and Dresdner Kleinwort, and sub-underwriters, will be forced to buy all the shares, leaving them with 29 per cent of the enlarged bank.”
http://business.timesonline.co.uk/tol/business/industry_sectors/banking_and_finance/article4116470.ece
June 12th, 2008 at 8:05 am
“I have a listing in St. Albans, [Queens],” says Anthony Carollo of Carollo Real Estate. “Their asking price was $399,000 [seven months ago], and they couldn’t sell it. We got it in April, and we started at $369,000.”
That house was a well maintained, three-bedroom frame Colonial that had not been foreclosed on
As for the listing in St. Albans: “We just dropped the price again, to $339,000.”
So let me get this straight - houses in Queens are actually cheaper now than comparable houses in blue colar central NJ towns??
Interesting…
June 12th, 2008 at 8:10 am
posing plosser?
Plosser says regs for investment banks on the table
Philly Fed Pres. Fred Plosser calls for pre-emptive action
Plosser says interest rates in position to support growth
Fed’s Plosser: Inflation threat is ’serious’
June 12th, 2008 at 8:12 am
Are you kidding me, in a city of 8 million people there are less than a 1000 foreclosures.
http://www.nypost.com/seven/06122008/photos/re050a.jpg
June 12th, 2008 at 8:14 am
#25,
Exactly, foreclosures make great NY Post story but in reality the housing market is still hot around NYC.
June 12th, 2008 at 8:26 am
…still hot around NYC.
How is data of increased Y-O-Y forecloses in NYC (or a decrease for that matter) evidence of a “still hot” market “around NYC”?
Or are you excluding NJ and CT in your statement?
June 12th, 2008 at 8:29 am
Re: TV Home Improvement shows.
I grew up watching this old house as a kid. I probably watched every single episode, including the stupid ones with adobe houses that I couldn’t apply anything from.
When these new shows came out on HGTV and TLC I kept watching for laughs saying things like “OMFG! Tom Silva would never do something that stupid!”
Somehow I got hooked on a few that were funny. Flip This/That House, whichever was the one on A&E with the Trademark team was awesome, primarily cause of the contractor and watching Ginger on the job site ;) Although when it moved to TLC it sucked. When FTH moved on to other RE investors it was strange but that Armondo guy, man, from the begining I thought “Now here’s a guy that’s going to self destruct on national TV!” And he did :)
Then there’s DIY to the rescue. I keep thinking it’s a gag, except for the one chick on it that seems to have a clue. I still can’t get it out of my head this one time the helper guy was explaining how to polyurethane something. He sais “It’s important to keep a wet edge to get a good finish.” OK that’s true I thought, then comes… “A wet edge means you need to make sure you keep your brush loaded with poly.” WTF!?!?!?!? Doesn’t anyone screen these things?
June 12th, 2008 at 8:32 am
Smith Barney Criteria for CIT Ratings Review
Based on our discussion with Moody’s, we think that CIT has to accomplish three goals to preserve its
Baa1 rating:
1. Get rid of the subprime mortgage overhang — Ideally, CIT would write down the portfolio and
sell it; alternatively, it would take such a big write-off that it’s no longer an issue for creditors or
possible strategic partners.
2. Establish a strategic funding arrangement — The Goldman deal might be enough, Moody’s said,
but then quickly added that CIT may be working on other arrangements. Moody’s would most
likely prefer to see a deal with another institution that involved either an equity stake or a joint
venture, we believe.
3. Return to the public unsecured market — Demonstrating access to the debt markets would be a
positive, Moody’s said, even if, as we suggested, the coupon were 9.50% or more.
Moody’s expects CIT to “pull it off” and said that it will likely confirm the Baa1 rating, indicating a
more positive attitude toward CIT than we had previously thought
June 12th, 2008 at 8:41 am
DL - re: Weakness on Wall Street.
It’s my understanding based on various articles that for lux rentals, rents have dropped dramatically (from “obscene” to “very high”) compared to elsewhere in the city; can’t speak as to sales though.
June 12th, 2008 at 8:54 am
The purge begins at LEH. CFO and COO out!
June 12th, 2008 at 8:58 am
BREAKING NEWS:
Lehman Brothers shares slump in early trading after CNBC reports bank’s finance chief and chief operating officer ousted. Full story to follow shortly.
June 12th, 2008 at 9:03 am
#26 Frank Hot around NYC, you have got to be joking.
Hey, you are entitled to your delusions, but come on, even the most blinded real estate bulls are no longer using the term hot.
June 12th, 2008 at 9:13 am
I am amazed at home many $14M properties go under contract in the big apple….amazing.
June 12th, 2008 at 9:18 am
CFO out. SEC on their tail?
June 12th, 2008 at 9:26 am
And the ousted dooshbags from LEH probably get a nice parting gift, I’m sure.
June 12th, 2008 at 9:28 am
Al, #23
And do you know what property taxes are like in the outer boroughs of NYC?
The typical, two-story, two-family, red brick structure on a 20 x 100 lot - about $2400 to $2800 a YEAR.
There’s just no comparison between NJ property taxes and NYC.
June 12th, 2008 at 9:28 am
#36 gary: And they will be using those gifts to buy houses in prestigious Bergen county.
June 12th, 2008 at 9:30 am
#37 scribe: My parents house in the northwest Bronx, right on the Yonkers border.
3beds 1.5 bath Lr,DR, small family room, fully finished basement, one car garage, 50 X 100 property.
The taxes are $2100 a year.
June 12th, 2008 at 9:33 am
anyone else exhausted? Financially and otherwise?
June 12th, 2008 at 9:34 am
nyc income taxes are considerably higher tho
June 12th, 2008 at 9:35 am
#26
Out of those 8 million people, how many do you think actually own their homes? I wouldn’t say very many. I bet there’s a high percentage that are renters.
June 12th, 2008 at 9:36 am
I can hear a helicopter starting up down in Washington DC.
June 12th, 2008 at 9:43 am
Started looking at BC house rentals on NJMLS yesterday (plan B if prices don’t drop significantly after July 4). A couple of observations:
1. Amazing how many places that are for sale are also for rent - I would say upwards of 50% of the properties I track are also for rent. I guess sellers think that the market will return and renting is a stop gap solution.
2. Many of the rental prices are completely out of line. I wouldn’t pay $600k for your 3/2 split and I am definitely not going to rent it for $4000/month.
Does anyone have experience lowballing a rental?
June 12th, 2008 at 9:44 am
NYC will have its share of problems as well. I read in an article that supply of new condos coming online this year was double that of demand. I’ll have to dig around for that article. NYC has a tax abatement that will expire that all developers are trying to benefit. Big whammy of rush of supply, waning demand and slackening job market. It’s probably where NNJ was a year or two ago.
June 12th, 2008 at 9:51 am
#45 hardplace: There are tons of condos and rentals that have yet to coem on line in the Wall St area. Not to mention many that are on line, but at or near empty.
June 12th, 2008 at 9:53 am
Retail sales are up, and all is good agian;until tomorrow. CPI # anyone?
June 12th, 2008 at 9:55 am
#46 - many that are on line, but at or near empty 20 Pine St?
June 12th, 2008 at 9:56 am
That is why so many Long Islanders own one and two family rental properties in Queens and not in Nassau county, in particular Bayside. RE taxes are very low and since you don’t live their you don’t get hit with property tax. Just buy a place in a town like Astoria, Woodside, Bayside that gets a young steady crowd of renters attracted by good train line and nightlife and the fact that these type of propertes are exempt from rent control.
paying 200 a month taxes on a rental house is great for cash flow.
June 12th, 2008 at 9:59 am
“Retail sales are up”
3b,
Maybe they’ll be $50B sent out each month to the starved shoppers?
June 12th, 2008 at 10:00 am
348 20 Pine from what I understand is not on line yet.
June 12th, 2008 at 10:00 am
John, good points. I am not a grammer freak but you always confuse ‘there’ and ‘their’.
June 12th, 2008 at 10:05 am
I am currently a renter in financial district. Two years ago the building (99 John Street)started being converted from all rental to condo. The listing for my unit, a ~500 sq. studio, was $525k. No discount for existing tenants. Supposedly the actual units would go through an upgrade (granite, etc). There was talk that they will no longer renew our lease. People moved out. I decided to hang around.
There were some tenant interest. At one point a few people want to organize to try to form a coop and take over un-upgraded units from the management company for a cheaper price. It kind of fizzled. Then there were some collective bargaining plan where some tenants want to band together and buy at a discount. That too, not much came of it.
In the mean time, conversion goes on, new wall paper, new paint. But they continued to rent, and renewed my lease. No rent increases.
Two month ago, we got a flyer in the mail. 20% off listing price for existing tenants. That’s 100k and change haircut off my overpriced studio. I still laugh.
June 12th, 2008 at 10:15 am
#51 - They’ve certainly taken their time with that. Didn’t JPM sell the building in 2k4?
#53 - I’ve heard a number if similar stories from other conversions in the FiDi. I might have to pay closer attention to see if any bargains show up.
June 12th, 2008 at 10:29 am
Bernanke needs to lower rates again to stimulate lending, don’t you all agree?
June 12th, 2008 at 10:34 am
re: #55 Gary
Bernake needs to start typing up a new coversheet for his resume.
June 12th, 2008 at 10:35 am
Downgrading from my cheap apartment and going to rent a room in a friend’s house at 1/4 the monthly cost with no lease, no security deposit.
About 18 months from now should be a nice time to start picking off the ‘real deals’ otherwise I’ll just stay there and continue to bank cash and end up buying something eventually with even more money down.
Sure, it is a “step back”, but as a single guy with nothing tying me down… what does it matter?
June 12th, 2008 at 10:35 am
#44 - Sellers might consider renting their homes after they move if they expect to realize less on the sale than they paid. This is due to the tax treatment of a loss on personal property v. the loss on rental property. By converting to rental property the taxpayer can sell a year or two down the road and use the loss to offset other taxable income. There is no tax benefit for a capital loss on personal property. If this were the seller/landlords strategy, I would believe they would be more concerned with getting responsible tenants that wouldn’t trash the place over getting the highest rent. So they may be more negotiable on the rent.
June 12th, 2008 at 10:35 am
“Bernanke needs to lower rates again to stimulate lending, don’t you all agree?”
G-Man,
He can lower to zero, doesn’t matter. Actually, he should raise, right now. Stop jawboning the market. At the same time we should release reserves,[spr]. Stop searching for excuses, crude. Do something.
June 12th, 2008 at 10:36 am
Gary,
yes we need lower rates and a even larger Stimulus Package 2 in order to be patriotic and turn this ship around ASAP.
/sarcasm off/
June 12th, 2008 at 10:38 am
Vodka,
Of course!! SP2! More Money! I need a jacuzzi and 270 inch flat screen, how ’bout you?
June 12th, 2008 at 10:38 am
#54 You also have 15 Broad Street, 25 Broad Street, 75 Wall Street, 67 Wall Street, and, tons of inventory on William Street.
June 12th, 2008 at 10:39 am
Pretty much $1,000+ a square foot for brand new condos downtown is the going rate for now. But by 2009 that will be a joke and it will be a lot less. The new condos are all the same and all renovated and all walking distance from each other. All I hear now is what floor, what view and price per square foot. Hard to stand out. Their and There always gives me a headache.
June 12th, 2008 at 10:39 am
BC Bob,
FYI - I did have a Pisarcik jersey and I actually wore it, too!
June 12th, 2008 at 10:41 am
3b,
I’m out of NY, now at Exchange Pl., JC. Any more handouts at the WTC Path for condos in JC?
June 12th, 2008 at 10:44 am
gary Says:
June 12th, 2008 at 9:26 am
And the ousted dooshbags from LEH probably get a nice parting gift, I’m sure.
g-man: that would be “douchebag”…take it from one….
June 12th, 2008 at 10:45 am
Fixed-rate mortgage rates at highest since October
Renewed concerns about inflation prompt rates to rise: economist
By Amy Hoak, MarketWatch
Last update: 10:42 a.m. EDT June 12, 2008CHICAGO (MarketWatch) — Rates on fixed-rate mortgages rose to their highest levels in almost eight months this week after Federal Reserve officials expressed concern about inflation, Freddie Mac’s chief economist said on Thursday.
The 30-year fixed-rate mortgage averaged 6.32% during the week ending June 12, up from 6.09% last week, according to Freddie Mac’s weekly survey. The mortgage averaged 6.74% a year ago and the last time the rate was higher was the week ending Oct. 25, when it averaged 6.33%.
June 12th, 2008 at 10:49 am
66. In a separate news release a source citied Erin’s bad spray-on tan as the reason for her termination.
June 12th, 2008 at 10:50 am
#68, you mean this one?
http://dealbreaker.com/2008/06/greenlight_v_leh.php
June 12th, 2008 at 10:54 am
26 Frank
“in reality the housing market is still hot around NYC.”
No - there is substantial softening, DOM substantially increasing even in Manhattan, and my two friends who are in RE sales in the city (Manhattan/Brooklyn), both of whom I would describe as RE bulls, state that the outer boroughs are rapidly dying and Manhattan is at the precipice. One has sold everything and is doing only renovations, and the other has sold everything in Manhattan and only has three remaining properties in Brooklyn, which he is trying to sell but can’t.
June 12th, 2008 at 10:57 am
#65 BC Bob: At least 2 or 3 times a month, and for Union City too.
Speaking of JC, I have spent most of this week over there,and it looks like lots of luxury condos on the river for sale.
June 12th, 2008 at 10:58 am
essex
“anyone else exhausted? Financially and otherwise?”
Definitely as to otherwise.
June 12th, 2008 at 10:58 am
From MarketWatch:
OCC: U.S. banks tightened lending standards
A survey conducted by U.S. Office of the Comptroller of the Currency found that the largest U.S. banks strengthened loan underwriting standards in the year ended March 31, the agency said Thursday. The 2008 survey included the 62 largest national banks and looked at an aggregate total of loans worth $3.7 trillion, or 83% of all outstanding loans in the national banking system. “The disruption in financial markets that began in 2007 led to an abrupt change in risk appetite of the majority of the banks and a renewed focus on fundamental credit principles by bank lenders,” said the OCC, an agency of the Treasury Department.
June 12th, 2008 at 10:59 am
Waiting for those luxury goods to hit 50% off.
June 12th, 2008 at 11:01 am
53 weed
“Two month ago, we got a flyer in the mail. 20% off listing price for existing tenants. That’s 100k and change haircut off my overpriced studio. I still laugh.”
Do you know any insiders who bought 25% too high?
June 12th, 2008 at 11:04 am
“I did have a Pisarcik jersey and I actually wore it, too!”
Gary - even after The Hand-Off?
June 12th, 2008 at 11:05 am
Italian Buys The Flatiron Building
Spurred by the weak dollar and the strong euro, European travelers to the U.S. have been lapping up everything from Gap boxers to iPhones to luxury condos in Palm Beach. Now a top Italian real estate investor has nabbed a crown piece of New York property, a sale that echoes the Japanese purchase of Rockefeller Center in 1989. Valter Mainetti has confirmed to TIME that his company, the Sorgente Group, has acquired a majority share of Manhattan’s historic Flatiron building.
http://www.time.com/time/business/article/0,8599,1813198,00.html?imw=Y
June 12th, 2008 at 11:10 am
Now, on CNN.com:
With foreclosures at an all-time high, the real estate meltdown is sending shock waves throughout the U.S. economy.
We want to hear how the crisis is affecting you — whether you are fighting to hang onto your home
or know someone else who is. Is your mortgage rate about to reset to a much higher rate? Have you been trying to sell your home, only to slash the price over and over? Or did you score a steal in a down market?
To be considered for a feature, send us your story and photo, or upload a video telling us all about your home and your family.
June 12th, 2008 at 11:12 am
Credit Crunch Turns Condos Into Rentals
A coming wave of developments originally envisioned as condominiums will instead be rented, observers say, due to lenders’ reluctance to finance condominiums in the midst of a credit crunch.
http://www.nysun.com/real-estate/credit-crunch-turns-condos-into-rentals/79861/
June 12th, 2008 at 11:16 am
patient
saw your article from yesterday…. interesting stuff
June 12th, 2008 at 11:16 am
#78 njpatient: Another CNN WAHHHHHHHHHHHHH story.
Like the one I saw a couple of months back where some woman was sobbing that she was going to lose her home.
Her salary was 38K a year, and she purcashed a 760k house with one of those I/o low teaser rates. Of course she said she did not know, and the broker told her she could refinance, and all the rest.
I was yelling at the TV, refianace? Refiance into what?
Of course Mr. Dobbs was full of righteous indignation and disgust at how this poor woman was wronged.
Never once did he ask her what business did a person making 38k a year have purchasing a 700K plus house.
June 12th, 2008 at 11:18 am
“Credit Crunch Turns Condos Into Rentals”
he [79],
Formerly known as condominiums. Pretty soon they’ll drop condo, just be known as miniums.
June 12th, 2008 at 11:21 am
#33,
3B,
Look at the RE market in CA, NV, AZ and FL then talk to me about NJ RE market.
NY/NJ market is still on fire in comparison to the rest of the country.
June 12th, 2008 at 11:25 am
#81
That’s Gov. Dobbs to you….
http://www.nj.com/news/ledger/index.ssf?/base/news-13/1213245387321760.xml&coll=1
June 12th, 2008 at 11:26 am
Looks like we’re getting all our money back from the cheap dollar & foreign investment in real estate.
Right?
“Freddie Mac and its fellow GSE Fannie Mae are now financing more than 80 percent of all mortgages in the U.S., up from 40 percent a year ago.
As lenders rely on Freddie Mac to buy their loans, the company is charging higher prices and increasing market share. Freddie Mac, which has a $738 billion portfolio of mortgage bonds and guarantees $1.78 trillion in home loans, is raising prices next month for the fourth time.
http://news.moneycentral.msn.com/provider/providerarticle.aspx?feed=AP&date=20080520&id=8671036
June 12th, 2008 at 11:28 am
anybody catch NPR this morning? they were pointing out that china and other countries are seeing double digit inflation while here in the US we are only running at 4-5 %.
mmmmmm fudge! too bad CPI is really running at about 12% and M3 is at about 17%
Take a look…. does anyone else find this somewhat alarming?
http://tinyurl.com/3bhh8b
June 12th, 2008 at 11:29 am
“Look at the RE market in CA, NV, AZ and FL then talk to me about NJ RE market.
NY/NJ market is still on fire in comparison to the rest of the country.”
The best of the worst?
June 12th, 2008 at 11:30 am
In times of high inflation, are you not supposed to buy hard assets, like RE?? Or is it ‘if there is blood on the street, buy RE’.
June 12th, 2008 at 11:30 am
Can anyone provide more information on this listing.
Am I wrong in thinking that this has been listed at $490K to start a bidding war or is there something wrong with this house.
MLS #: 2507502
Built in 2006 , listed for $490K in Scotch Plains, Tax - $9700
Great site by the way.
Thanks much.
June 12th, 2008 at 11:32 am
“NY/NJ market is still on fire in comparison to the rest of the country.”
Carlos Delgado is on fire in comparison to Mario Mendoza but he still sucks.
June 12th, 2008 at 11:34 am
Frank (83)-
“NY/NJ market is still on fire in comparison to the rest of the country.”
Compared to a moron or an idiot, a simpleton looks like Einstein…who had some understanding of the real meaning of relativity.
June 12th, 2008 at 11:36 am
Inventory in JC is nuts, no capitulation on price, very light on transactions given the inventory. The market is effectively dead, a friend of mine is a RE agent in Ridgewood and he was telling me that he is getting emails from developers in JC offering bonuses for bringing in buyers. With any luck we will see prices fall through the floor there and sales volume will pick up. Project like canco will have to go rental or fire sale, they are really nice apartments, piss poor location on the edge of an Indian neighborhood surrounded by industrial buildings and directly abutting the pulaski skyway.
June 12th, 2008 at 11:37 am
vodka (86)-
Who the hell knows? Gubmint may have a clue, but it seems they’ve just chosen to lie to us.
The fact that they are lying tells you a lot about what they really do know.
June 12th, 2008 at 11:39 am
“That house was a well maintained, three-bedroom frame Colonial that had not been foreclosed on
As for the listing in St. Albans: “We just dropped the price again, to $339,000.”
That does not compare favorably with listing I just received for a $769K three-bedroom in Brigadoon with $14K in taxes (but dig the antique pine paneling in the rec room/office!):
http://tinyurl.com/675ndu
June 12th, 2008 at 11:41 am
Al Says:
June 12th, 2008 at 8:05 am
“So let me get this straight - houses in Queens are actually cheaper now than comparable houses in blue colar central NJ towns??
Interesting…”
I noticed that too. Add in the lesser taxes, lesser car insurance and efficient public transportation (dump that 2nd car, spend less on gas) and Queens beats out a LOT of NJ neighbourhoods.
June 12th, 2008 at 11:42 am
Aaaaah - THIS explains the $769K price tag on the 3-bedroom with $14K in taxes. It’s the huge updated kitchen!!!
http://tinyurl.com/68crcj
June 12th, 2008 at 11:43 am
“Add in the lesser taxes, lesser car insurance and efficient public transportation (dump that 2nd car, spend less on gas) and Queens beats out a LOT of NJ neighbourhoods.”
Yeah, but when the nuclear strike hits Manhattan, it will take a lot longer to escape to Pennsylvania.
June 12th, 2008 at 11:46 am
njpatient Says:
June 12th, 2008 at 11:39 am
“That does not compare favorably with listing I just received for a $769K three-bedroom in Brigadoon with $14K in taxes (but dig the antique pine paneling in the rec room/office!):
http://tinyurl.com/675ndu”
Gorgeous. And that tile ceiling and air ducts just scream out 3 quarters of a million dollar house to me.
June 12th, 2008 at 11:47 am
#94 njpatient: Charm abounds!!!
June 12th, 2008 at 11:50 am
The carpeting in the family room (with wet bar!) does join with the pine paneling to create a cozy atmosphere. I can just imagine sitting in their, sipping a Manhattan, or perhaps a Sidecar, watching the Andy Griffith show.
http://tinyurl.com/6ksohl
June 12th, 2008 at 11:51 am
njpatient Says:
June 12th, 2008 at 11:43 am
“Yeah, but when the nuclear strike hits Manhattan, it will take a lot longer to escape to Pennsylvania.”
The basic choice is one of instant vaporization or a long slow painfull death from radiation sickness as you puke up your guts and watch your skin peel off.
The vaporization is preferrable.
Plus, the electomagnetic pulse that somebody is sure to add in to an attack will render all cars useless, so being in Jersey will have absolutely no benefit.
June 12th, 2008 at 11:51 am
and, to be fair, that previous picture of the kitchen was from an unflattering angle. here’s a more flattering shot:
http://tinyurl.com/67t67t
June 12th, 2008 at 11:51 am
“The vaporization is preferrable.”
Yeah, but I can’t afford to live in Manhattan.
June 12th, 2008 at 11:52 am
#83 frank: On fire? How about we just agree that Ny/NJ amrket is doing better than the other markets that you mention,for now.
Which of course means nothing.
June 12th, 2008 at 11:52 am
njpatient Says:
June 12th, 2008 at 11:42 am
“Aaaaah - THIS explains the $769K price tag on the 3-bedroom with $14K in taxes. It’s the huge updated kitchen!!!
http://tinyurl.com/68crcj”
Silly. The premium is for the custom polka dot wall paper.
June 12th, 2008 at 11:54 am
njpatient Says:
June 12th, 2008 at 11:51 am
“The vaporization is preferrable.”
“Yeah, but I can’t afford to live in Manhattan.”
I’m sure you can vaporize just as effectively in the Outer Boroughs.
June 12th, 2008 at 11:55 am
http://www.mlsli.com/unidetailsredo.CFM?MLNum=2084922&typeprop=1&start=1&rpp=10
Queens makes much more sense, this REO in the low threes is in a very good neighborhood, close to parkways, train, express bus and ten minutes to St. Johns and like 12 miles to Manhattan. You can rent this out for more the same price as that $769k house that has 6x the taxes. Plus this house is in good elementary school district and right by a great park.
June 12th, 2008 at 11:55 am
njpat,
Yeah, but when the nuclear strike hits Manhattan, it will take a lot longer to escape to Pennsylvania.
Almost scary, but I have thought this too. That’s exactly why I would not want to live in Queens or Long Island. No where else to go when Manhattan is hit. Everyone will be running for the boats to sail off the island. To even think like that, we may have watched one too many Armaggedon type movies.
June 12th, 2008 at 11:56 am
[159] NJP (from yesterday’s thread)
LOL, yeah, 6K.
If the recruiter is right, I happen to know you have it.
June 12th, 2008 at 11:57 am
97 patient
http://meyerweb.com/eric/tools/gmap/hydesim.html
This link will show you the expected damage at different distances from the center of a nuclear strike, overlayed on googlemaps.
FYI the smallest nukes that the US and russia have for “general use” is about 50 Kilotons (KT o). i believe that most of the US and Russian weapons are around 100KT but we have a large number of “dial-a-yield” weapons, where the explosive power can be set within a given range, i.e 75 - 150 KT.
1 kiloton is the explosive equivalent of 1 ton of TNT being detonated.
June 12th, 2008 at 12:07 pm
Ket,
Assuming missles, what is the CEP? They can aim for Manhattan and wind up in Parsippany for all I know. Also, can we safely assume that fallout will drift N.E. with what are generally prevailing winds?
I am liking my idea of sanctuary/productive farmland/weekend spot in N.E. Pennsylvania even more.
June 12th, 2008 at 12:07 pm
NJ Homehunter
Can anyone provide more information on this listing.
Am I wrong in thinking that this has been listed at $490K to start a bidding war or is there something wrong with this house.
MLS #: 2507502
__________________
It is not priced to start a bidding war, it sat at $509, and I believe $499 (among other prices) for some time.
RayC
June 12th, 2008 at 12:08 pm
Don’t forget Queens has NYC Income tax of upto 4%.
June 12th, 2008 at 12:08 pm
also consider that the more devastating attack would be to airburst a nuke at high altitude over the east coast. Little if any ground damage would occur due to the immediate effects of the blast, but the EMP would wipe out the electronic infrastructure of the majority of the east coats. The EMP would wipe out everything from cell phones to any modern car to PC’s, commuter train controls…… .
This is worse then a direct strike on Manhattan. Manhattan is one city. but imagine the devastation from wiping out a90% of electrical devices on the east coats. Society on the east coast would collapse and you would have a Katrina type mess on an unimaginable scale
June 12th, 2008 at 12:10 pm
John, your assessment is bad, huge difference between st. albans queens and Westfield. Maybe if you compare Forest Hills to Westfield you’d be closer in terms of the housing and amenities. Please note the level of college educated people, median income, CRIME rate. A better comparison would be West Orange where a comparable house could be purchased for similar $$ but with ludicrous taxes.
June 12th, 2008 at 12:12 pm
My uncle, a VP at an [name redacted] Wall St equities firm called to say, “if you have more than $100k in any one bank, start moving things around.”
Anecdotal, sure. But when a trader says CYA against bank failures, that’s gotta mean something
June 12th, 2008 at 12:13 pm
Nom,
an older NY target list….
http://tinyurl.com/4prtxv
June 12th, 2008 at 12:14 pm
Re 115 I am only talking about making a profit from renting. Good Neighborhoods the houses cost almost triple a bad neighborhood each month but rents are no where triple.
I never heard of Westfield is it nice, where the heck is it?
June 12th, 2008 at 12:17 pm
jamey, the more conservative of us juggled Grandma’s stuff more than two months ago.
We’re relaxing in our pine-panelled dens, wearing crush valor and relishing the comfort of our naugahyde recliners.
June 12th, 2008 at 12:17 pm
Jamey [116],
Your uncle is a smart man.
June 12th, 2008 at 12:21 pm
Approaching 48 hours without power at the old Montclair household. I suppose we shouldn’t complain. Two years ago we wer out for over 96 hours. Perhaps we ought to just permanently unplug the fridge and just stock the pantry with Ramen. Well, until the NG prices triple ;)
June 12th, 2008 at 12:21 pm
109 nom
I did, but I had to give it to the U of Penn.
June 12th, 2008 at 12:24 pm
lisoosh, 110 ket
I guess you’re right, ’soosh. Looks like I could even get vaporized in Hoboken, Weehawken and parts of JC (pretorius probably knew that already).
June 12th, 2008 at 12:27 pm
Nom,
I cant find it right now, but there are official fallout projection maps and they show that pretty much anything west of the hudson is safe from fallout in an NYC strike
June 12th, 2008 at 12:29 pm
Thank goodness most if not all the prestigous Bergen County towns will be safe.
June 12th, 2008 at 12:30 pm
124[ket]
That was my thinking. Don’t knock yerself out here for my benefit. Don’t care to get too off topic, lest Grim rename this the NJ Real Estate and Civil Defense Report.
[122] NJP
That explains all the new furniture in the lounge area.
June 12th, 2008 at 12:30 pm
I heard you should spread your accounts around & invest 100k in each transit village.
House passes bill funding Northeast corridor high-speed rail expansion
by The Associated Press Thursday June 12, 2008, 9:41 AM
Train travelers moved closer to a faster trip to New York or Washington with House passage of a bill supporting construction of a high-speed rail system in the Northeast, according to a report in the Asbury Park Press.
The report said the bill would authorize $14.4 billion for Amtrak and for states to develop intercity passenger rail systems in addition to high-speed rail systems during the next five years, including the Washington-to-Boston Northeast Corridor. The vote’s 311-104 margin Wednesday exceeds the two-thirds majority necessary to override President Bush’s threatened veto and aa 13 New Jersey House members voted for the bill.
June 12th, 2008 at 12:31 pm
time article on the prospect of a fight with iran
http://www.time.com/time/world/article/0,8599,1813706,00.html
June 12th, 2008 at 12:34 pm
[117]
Interesting. Vermont Yankee still shows as active. I thought it had been decomm’ed
Funny story from inside containment at VT Yankee. Will have to share it sometime.
June 12th, 2008 at 12:36 pm
129 nom,
yankee has been extended by the feds a couple times and the state politicians are fighting to have it closed.
June 12th, 2008 at 12:37 pm
Careful everyone, looks like we’ve got a swindler on the loose. The worst kind too, an ex-Hedgie.
Feds: Missing NY swindler armed and dangerous
Federal marshals in New York have issued a “Wanted” poster that says a missing hedge-fund swindler should be considered “armed and dangerous.”
A car belonging to Samuel Israel III was found Monday on a bridge over the Hudson River, with “Suicide is Painless” etched into the dust on the hood. But no body has been found, and investigators believe Israel may be on the lam.
He was supposed to start a 20-year prison sentence Monday for bilking investors out of $450 million in hedge funds.
June 12th, 2008 at 12:38 pm
116 Jamey
I started telling my friends the same thing last September.
June 12th, 2008 at 12:39 pm
[130] Ket
Must have extended the cooling ponds again.
Recall being in the turbine room, watching steam hit the blades thru a small glass window, and someone asked, BWR or PWR, and the guide said BWR.
Everyone in the group started stepping away from the window.
June 12th, 2008 at 12:39 pm
From DealBreaker:
Layoffs Watch ‘08: BoA
Not to change the subject, but Bank of America is apparently in the process (as in this morning) of laying off IB employees
June 12th, 2008 at 12:41 pm
72….just wake me up when it is over.
June 12th, 2008 at 12:42 pm
131. RUN IZZY RUN! Everyone likes a good fugitive story.
June 12th, 2008 at 12:42 pm
127 photo
“Train travelers moved closer to a faster trip to New York ”
Imagine what that’ll do to the phrase “close to Manhattan”!
June 12th, 2008 at 12:48 pm
131 grim
“But no body has been found, and investigators believe Israel may be on the lam.”
Nah - definitely suicide. He’s the type of guy who’d feel too guilty about the money he’d stolen.
June 12th, 2008 at 12:50 pm
Rich it is still hot in NYC. I think it was like over 95 over the weekend.
June 12th, 2008 at 12:51 pm
Nom,
2 questions…..
1 given that you are a legal beagle, what were you doing at a nuclear reactor?
2 sorry if i am being dense, but you are supposed to run steam through turbines…. both PWRs and BWRs use the primary cooling loop to produce steam in a secondary loop. the steam in the secondary loop turn a turbine for power generation. am i missing something?
June 12th, 2008 at 12:57 pm
somewhat back on topic…..
how does the government think they are going to fix the root of current US economic issues without moving away from a consumer economy? Being a consumer economy only works when you are the financial bigdog in the world and only while you can sustain the debt. we ca no longer sustain the debt.
Until we as a society recognize that the consumer lifestyle is dead and we had best start producing something of value to sell to the world we are hosed.
June 12th, 2008 at 12:58 pm
We can no longer sustain debt because the banks violated a cardinal rule of bidness…they crapped in their nest.
June 12th, 2008 at 1:00 pm
10y @ 4.20%
wow
June 12th, 2008 at 1:03 pm
86 kettle
I don’t think there is a single country right now that is not fudging their inflation numbers. If China says they have 10% inflation, rest assured it’s prbably close to 20%.
June 12th, 2008 at 1:05 pm
A few bps away from being at a 6/7 month high.
June 12th, 2008 at 1:07 pm
I thought this blog was down for a day; but I guess Grim stopped paying for njrealestatereport.com because it’s coming up as a dead link.
oh well
June 12th, 2008 at 1:07 pm
“Until we as a society recognize that the consumer lifestyle is dead and we had best start producing something of value to sell to the world we are hosed.”
kettle,
We are hosed.
June 12th, 2008 at 1:10 pm
“A few bps away from being at a 6/7 month high.”
Exactly Bergabe’s intentions. Nothing cures idiot bankers better than a positive sloping yield curve.
June 12th, 2008 at 1:11 pm
[141] Ket,
1. Field trip for Nuclear Energy and Issues class. In the ’80s, nuke issues were hot and I had classes that dealt with power generation, proliferation, and war game theories (my favorite was the Decapitation Theory that a massive airburst above Omaha would produce enough EMP to blow out circuitry across the continental US)
2. We were taught that in a BWR, there is no heat exchanger and secondary loop. The steam comes directly from the core (meaning that the water is also radioactive). Now, I could be wrong about that, but that was what we were taught, and I am not an engineer.
Now, back to real estate and banking.
June 12th, 2008 at 1:13 pm
Approaching 48 hours without power at the old Montclair household. I suppose we shouldn’t complain. Two years ago we wer out for over 96 hours. Perhaps we ought to just permanently unplug the fridge and just stock the pantry with Ramen. Well, until the NG prices triple ;)
Think of all the $ your saving by not having to run your AC unit!
June 12th, 2008 at 1:16 pm
[141] Ket,
Because I doubted my understanding, I cut this off of some website:
“This design (diagram next page) has many similarities to the PWR, except that there is only a single circuit in which the water is at lower pressure (about 75 times atmospheric pressure) so that it boils in the core at about 285°C. The reactor is designed to operate with 12-15% of the water in the top part of the core as steam, and hence with less moderating effect and thus efficiency there.
The steam passes through drier plates (steam separators) above the core and then directly to the turbines, which are thus part of the reactor circuit. Since the water around the core of a reactor is always contaminated with traces of radionuclides, it means that the turbine must be shielded and radiological protection provided during maintenance. . . .”
Now that everyone’s eyes have glazed over, I am going to drop this topic.
June 12th, 2008 at 1:18 pm
I think it may have been posted in the last day or two, but what was the website that had a search engine for Property Sales and historical tax records for Bergen county?
June 12th, 2008 at 1:25 pm
Re: Armagedon in Manhattan
A few years ago out here in Sussex County I went to a presentation given by a local emergency management person who stated that a big part of his job was planning for an influx of refugees from NYC in the event of an attack.
Here’s something to think about for all you potential refugees: most people around here are heavily armed. Be careful.
June 12th, 2008 at 1:28 pm
154 ATG:
“planning for an influx of refugees from NYC”…
Let’s look at the bright side, maybe they’ll decide to settle here and get rid of some of the excess housing inventory :)
June 12th, 2008 at 1:31 pm
OMG - I just now realized that Obama is younger than Don Mattingly.
I think I’m going to be sick.
June 12th, 2008 at 1:39 pm
John, Westfield is considered “Prestigious” the housing varies from nice to kind of old. I think it is way, way, way overvalued but it is a pretty nice town and has a very nice main street, train commute to NYC is a bit long which is why I think it is valued too high. It is very safe and has good schools which is key in NJ.
The truth is rental investment properties are almost always in marginal neighborhoods(That have colonies of young professionals moving in), you will give a young white collar worker a nice apartment close to the city for a good rent, in exchange the neighborhood is improving and you can eventually raise the rent, when the neighborhood makes the turn you profit big by selling. In a good area the competition from buyers who intend to live in the property and have a propensity not to look at the risk and cash flow. The truth is the worse the neighborhood the better the cap rate, I can buy property in Newark all week long that are 10 cap properties. In Hoboken you’d be hard pressed to get an 8 cap.
June 12th, 2008 at 1:42 pm
“Westfield is considered “Prestigious” the housing varies from nice to kind of old” to somebody’s-entire-family-was-hacked-up-in-here.
June 12th, 2008 at 1:45 pm
Anyone have an opinion on Hazlet? I had been hoping for Fair Haven, but maybe this is a more realistic alternative.
June 12th, 2008 at 1:46 pm
Westfield is a bunghole, just for fun I googled it and up popped this!!!
http://westfieldnj.com/support-group/
June 12th, 2008 at 1:56 pm
“Anyone have an opinion on Hazlet? ”
That loser couldn’t coach his way out of a wet paper bag, right gary?
June 12th, 2008 at 1:56 pm
#159 - I grew up there.
The schools aren’t that great, neighborhoods are fairly straight middle-class (or what passes for it today), traffic in the past 8 years has become increasingly like Staten Island. Good commute options into the city, Academy, NJ Train & bus, ferries not too far.
Very middle of the road, not horrible & not great.
Were you looking for specific info?
I’m moving back there at the end of summer as I got a free house.
June 12th, 2008 at 1:57 pm
Friend at KPMG just told me second round of layoffs announced this morning. They did a first round of layoffs two months ago which was supposed to be the only round of layoffs. When they start naming the number of the rounds of layoffs you are in trouble.
June 12th, 2008 at 1:59 pm
John #160
That’s not nice - every town has one of these:
From another “prestigious” Bergen County town:
“Career Resource Ministry Winter/Spring Workshops
The Career Resource Ministry will be presenting the fourth in a series of Winter/ Spring Workshops on May 4, 2008, at 12 Noon in the Parish Center. This invitation is extended to anyone seeking employment or who may be anticipating possible unemployment. An individual does not have to be a member of Mount Carmel Parish to attend. Anyone interested in the subject matter is invited to attend and all are welcome.
Professionals, who are members of the Ministry, will be on hand with advice on the topic: “Interview, Cultivate Offers and Negotiate”. Every discussion with a hiring manager should be considered an interview. Your role in the discussion is to position your skills, talents and experiences as the solution to the challenges they face in their organizations. Your task is to cultivate an offer by helping the hiring manager see you in that role, and eventually make you an offer. Professionals will also help with questions following the presentation. Please bring along your most recent resume or job experience information.”
June 12th, 2008 at 2:01 pm
To Erin of Lehman Brothers
Love John
I can’t take my eyes off of you
I can’t take my eyes off you
I can’t take my eyes off of you
I can’t take my eyes off you
I can’t take my eyes off you
I can’t take my eyes…
Did I say that I loathe you?
Did I say that I want to
Leave it all behind?
I can’t take my mind off of you
I can’t take my mind off you
I can’t take my mind off of you
I can’t take my mind off you
I can’t take my mind off you
I can’t take my mind…
My mind…my mind…
‘Til I find somebody new
June 12th, 2008 at 2:03 pm
nom,
you are correct, i was mixing up my reactor types :)
June 12th, 2008 at 2:04 pm
OK…John….you should get some rest.
June 12th, 2008 at 2:07 pm
“you are correct, i was mixing up my reactor types :)”
I hate when I do that!
June 12th, 2008 at 2:09 pm
http://www.newyorkfed.org/mortgagemaps/
This is cool, enter your zipcode and gives you subprime stats for your town. From the Fed
June 12th, 2008 at 2:13 pm
#153 Is this the site you were asking about?
http://tax1.co.monmouth.nj.us/cgi-bin/prc6.cgi?&ms_user=monm&passwd=data&srch_type=0&adv=0&out_type=0&district=1602
June 12th, 2008 at 2:15 pm
How does the pipeline look?
“Compensation packages offered to new Wall Street hires may fall 20 percent from peaks, according to a survey released by the smart cube, a global research boutique. “We are operating in what is clearly a buyers’ market (for talent) that appears likely to continue for at least the short to medium term,” the firm said. Some recruiters cited a trend to slash or even eliminate signing bonuses for new hires. Respondents also indicated the hiring process is taking longer, firms are often hiring temporary or contract employees, and candidates fearful of pricing themselves out of the market have “significantly scaled back their compensation demands.”
http://news.efinancialcareers.co.uk/newsandviews_item/newsItemId-14002
June 12th, 2008 at 2:27 pm
162 - Thanks TM. I’m on a middle of the road budget. I saw an REO come up. 50 Knoll Terrace. Doesn’t look half bad from the outside, except for what appears to be train tracks in back of the place.
June 12th, 2008 at 2:29 pm
This one’s for jamil, regarding China not drilling for oil off Florida/Cuba:
http://www.miamiherald.com/campaign08/story/567156.html
June 12th, 2008 at 2:29 pm
“Doesn’t look half bad from the outside, except for what appears to be train tracks in back of the place.”
Comes complete with really large toy train!
June 12th, 2008 at 2:31 pm
nom,
dont worry, a dose of radiation can be good for you. the catch is the the line between good dose and bad dose is different for everyone.
In case you are curious, a dose of radiation can be good for you because the right dose will boost your immune system. to much kills it.
you can thank the military doing illegal experiments on soldiers and civilians in the 50’s and 60’s for that little nugget. they dosed people without their knowledge and then tracked their health. injecting people with plutonium was one of the early types of experiments that they did.
June 12th, 2008 at 2:33 pm
169 john
cool.
Looking at % 90-days delinquent: Who knew that the bubble had hit Alabama and Mississippi so hard?
June 12th, 2008 at 2:33 pm
foreclosure rate higher in NJ than CA
June 12th, 2008 at 2:38 pm
#172 - I know exactly where that is. You will definitely hear the train from there. If the price is right though it could be worth it. Other than the train that’s a quieter section of the town. Traffic on keyport-holmdel rd can be very heavy. You would be close to Holmdel park which is nice if you have kids.
I’ll be moving about 2 miles to the north east of that, somewhere off of Middle Rd.
June 12th, 2008 at 2:40 pm
maine tied with NJ there patient. So much for New England austerity.
June 12th, 2008 at 2:43 pm
“Anyone have an opinion on Hazlet?”
Redneck central.
June 12th, 2008 at 2:46 pm
dont worry about inflation guys….. I mean Zimbabwe is currently at 355,000% inflation, so its not like we are doing so bad, really!
June 12th, 2008 at 2:47 pm
maine has pretty neat combination of second homes and some of the poorest people on the east coast (actual mainers). sounds to me like a recipe for foreclosures on both ends
June 12th, 2008 at 2:47 pm
re: Hazlet
I took the scenic route over the weekend returning from the Jersey shore on a three hour McMansion tour. There is a strange correlation between the number of McMansions for sale and the number of boarded up Go-Go joints on Rt. 35. The stretch of Rt 35 from around Hazlet to Perth Amboy is loaded up with derelict strip malls, abandoned boats and what seemed to be allot of Go-Go joints.
June 12th, 2008 at 2:50 pm
http://ny.therealdeal.com/articles/a-hedge-against-chaos-in-zimbabwe
In May 2007, a three-bedroom home with manicured gardens and a swimming pool in the upper-middle-class suburb of Borrowdale cost 4 billion Zimbabwe dollars. Six months later, the house was still on the market, this time listed for 380 billion Zimbabwe dollars. That house is still for sale, but last month a similar home in the same enclave went for 8 trillion Zimbabwe dollars.
June 12th, 2008 at 2:50 pm
Sean that sounds like a graduate thesis to me.
June 12th, 2008 at 2:50 pm
I saw this last night on the Pharmalot site.
For the employees of Schering-Plough it has been months and months and months of “psychological terrorism” (there have been ongoing layoffs for at least a year, but this is by far the biggest).
When a newspaper site calls it “bloodletting” you know it’s bad…
http://www.pharmalot.com/2008/06/schering-plough-bloodletting-begins-this-week/
June 12th, 2008 at 2:51 pm
re: Northeast corridor high-speed rail expansion Bill.
The train may be high speed but it will for damm sure stop at every town along the way.
June 12th, 2008 at 2:53 pm
# 183 - The stretch of Rt 35 from around Hazlet to Perth Amboy is loaded up with derelict strip malls, abandoned boats and what seemed to be allot of Go-Go joints.
It has always been like this. It was actually worse in the early 80s!
June 12th, 2008 at 3:02 pm
#135 grim: and they announced the sale of their prime broakerage the other day, it’s being bought by Paribas
June 12th, 2008 at 3:04 pm
I’ve always done better buying stocks after a good tumble and then holding rather than buying on the way up.
Does this correlate to the real estate market?
Could we be at a safer buying level than we were last year - assuming that you are buying to live in the home, not buying to flip the home.
June 12th, 2008 at 3:05 pm
Humm, decisions, decisions.
Grimm, any chance you would move the GTG to
the PNC?
http://www.ticketmaster.com/event/02004059AD867403?artistid=735341&majorcatid=10001&minorcatid=200
June 12th, 2008 at 3:10 pm
#172 prtrader: except for what appears to be train tracks in back of the place.
DONT DO IT!!!!
June 12th, 2008 at 3:11 pm
#191 - They’re playing the Garden as well. The last time I saw them was on the Somewhere in Time tour (yes, I am that old) and there was a riot. Any idea of who is opening?
June 12th, 2008 at 3:15 pm
It looks like the openers are Trivium and Lauren Harris (this isn’t Steve Harris’ kid is it?).
Per wikipedia yes it is.
June 12th, 2008 at 3:17 pm
toshiro no idea who is opening but the reviews so far have been great.
http://news.google.com/news?hl=en&q=iron%20maiden&um=1&ie=UTF-8&sa=N&tab=wn
June 12th, 2008 at 3:19 pm
#177
I really want to believe. Do you have any evidence?
June 12th, 2008 at 3:20 pm
“toshiro no idea who is opening but the reviews so far have been great.”
Sean,
I heard the reviews, regarding the previous GTG’s, were great.
June 12th, 2008 at 3:22 pm
Thank goodness the DJIA skyrocketed and oil plummeted today!
June 12th, 2008 at 3:24 pm
196 getaclue
That stat was from John’s link at 169
so as to evidence: yes.
June 12th, 2008 at 3:38 pm
China-Cuba rumors fuel renewed offshore drilling debate
Rumors of China drilling in Cuban waters are rallying support for drilling off Florida’s coast, but experts say they’re untrue.
http://www.miamiherald.com/campaign08/story/567156.html
June 12th, 2008 at 3:40 pm
Patient,
I think there is some confusion about the numbers on John’s link. All of the following have CA in much worse shape than NJ:
Loans per 1000 housing units
In foreclosure per 1000 housing
REO’s per 1000 housing units
Should we be looking at other numbers?
June 12th, 2008 at 3:40 pm
where’s cindy these days?
summer vacation?
June 12th, 2008 at 3:45 pm
njpatient [161],
Hazlet is a nar, plain and simple. And so are the Saints.
June 12th, 2008 at 3:46 pm
201 NJL
No confusion. The number that I am looking at is “share in foreclosure”, where NJ is worse than CA in both subprime and Alt-A. That category is defined in the appendix thus:
“Percent in Foreclosure means the share of loans for which the lender has initiated the foreclosure process but has not completed it. The length of the foreclosure process varies by state, so two otherwise equal areas in different states could record different foreclosure shares if the foreclosure process takes longer in one state than the other. Thus, this field measures the stock of loans in foreclosure at a particular time, not the rate of completed foreclosures.”
Seems to me like NJ is just a bit behind the curve in facing reality, rather than having a nicer reality.
Is it Clot who makes the comparison to Wile E. Coyote after he runs off the cliff but before he looks down?
June 12th, 2008 at 3:47 pm
hmm.. someone posting as me again.
June 12th, 2008 at 3:50 pm
#204 nj: Don’t tell Frank