June Beige Book

From the Federal Reserve:

Summary of Commentary on Current Economic Conditions (PDF)

SECOND DISTRICT–NEW YORK

The Second District’s economy has been generally weaker since the last report. Manufacturers report that business activity remained sluggish in May, while cost pressures have been increasingly widespread. Contacts at non-manufacturing firms, in general, report continued deterioration in business conditions and anticipate little improvement in the months ahead. A major employment agency notes recent weakening in hiring activity and some general slackening in the labor markets. Retailers indicate mixed results for April and May; sales are said to be close to plan on average.

Housing markets weakened further, with sales activity down and prices flat to lower. New York City’s office market continued to soften in April and May—while leasing activity has remained moderately brisk, vacancy rates have continued to rise. Finally, bankers report some steadying in loan demand, further tightening in credit standards, and continued increases in delinquency rates across all loan categories.

Housing markets in the District have shown further signs of weakening. Sales transactions for Manhattan co-ops and condos are reported to have been down sharply from a year earlier in April and May, while inventories of unsold units have risen by much more than the seasonal norm since the beginning of the year. A leading appraisal firm reports that average and median selling prices have been buoyed by a skew in volume toward the high end, with prices of comparable units flat to lower than a year ago. Sales activity in the outer boroughs is also reported to be down sharply from a year earlier. One industry contact says that he has heard of quite a few deals falling through due to difficulties in obtaining financing.

Separately, an expert in New Jersey’s homebuilding industry notes that the market for new homes is being hampered by ongoing weakness in the resale market, where sales activity remains at low levels and prices are down more than 10 percent from a year ago. However, builders are reported to have worked through much of their inventory overhang and are no longer offering aggressive discounts, but they are still offering concessions.

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