Fri 27 Jun 2008
This is the time and place to post observations about your local areas, comments on news stories or the New Jersey housing market, open house reports, etc. If you have any questions you wanted to ask earlier in the week but never posted them up, let’s have them. Also a good place to post suggestions, requests for information, criticism, and praise.
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June 27th, 2008 at 5:22 am
From MarketWatch:
Crude oil hits record high in electronic trading
Crude oil prices spiked to a record high in electronic trading early Friday. The August light crude contract traded as high as $141.71 a barrel. Recently it was up $1.23 at $140.87 a barrel.
June 27th, 2008 at 5:25 am
From Bloomberg:
Homes Less Affordable as Prices Fall, Rates Rise, Zillow Says
Rising mortgage rates are driving up the cost of buying a house even as prices fall, making property more expensive across the U.S., according to a new study by Zillow.com, an online provider of home valuations.
Monthly payments on 30-year fixed mortgages are 6 percent to 10 percent higher in 41 of the top U.S. housing markets than they were two months ago. First-quarter prices have declined from a year earlier in 88 percent of those areas, Zillow said.
“We’re going to need about a 30 percent decline in house prices if you are going to keep payments stable,” said Morris Davis, a former senior economist with the Federal Reserve and now a real estate professor at the University of Wisconsin-Madison’s School of Business.
June 27th, 2008 at 5:41 am
2nd?
June 27th, 2008 at 5:42 am
From the Washington Post:
This Recession, It’s Just Beginning
So much for that second-half rebound.
Truth be told, that was always more of a wish than a serious forecast, happy talk from the Fed and Wall Street desperate to get things back to normal.
It ain’t gonna happen. Not this summer. Not this fall. Not even next winter.
This thing’s going down, fast and hard. Corporate bankruptcies, bond defaults, bank failures, hedge fund meltdowns and 6 percent unemployment. We’re caught in one of those vicious, downward spirals that, once it gets going, is very hard to pull out of.
June 27th, 2008 at 5:46 am
From the LA Business Journal:
IndyMac Shares Swoon to Record Low
Shares of IndyMac Bancorp Inc. hit an all-time low Thursday, plummeting more than 25 percent to just 80 cents, leading Sen. Charles Schumer to express public concern over the Pasadena lender’s financial health.
Schumer, a member of the Senate Banking Committee, wrote letters to the Federal Deposit Insurance Corp. and the Office of Thrift Supervision expressing “concern for the safety-and-soundness risks posed by IndyMac.” The New York Democrat said IndyMac sits on the verge of collapse and asked if either agency is taking steps to protect IndyMac and its depositors.
The mortgage lender has been pummeled by the subprime meltdown and credit crunch. IndyMac posted a nearly $200 million loss in the first quarter as a result of writedowns on mortgage-backed securities.
The company’s stock has fallen nearly 95 percent over the past year.
June 27th, 2008 at 6:00 am
It’s friday people! Fri-day….now let’s see some excitement! It’s a great time to buy something….plasma TV, Stocks….or a home!
June 27th, 2008 at 6:01 am
Shopping as therapy?
June 27th, 2008 at 6:02 am
From Bloomberg:
AIG Poised to Absorb $5 Billion Losses From Securities-Lending
American International Group Inc. plans to absorb losses for a dozen insurance units after their securities-lending accounts suffered $13 billion of writedowns tied to the subprime-mortgage collapse during the past year.
The world’s largest insurer will assume as much as $5 billion of any losses on sales of the investments, up from a previous commitment of $500 million, said Christopher Swift, vice president for life and retirement services, in an interview. AIG also will inject an undisclosed amount of capital into some of the subsidiaries, he said.
Moody’s Investors Service and A.M. Best Co. both cited the writedowns in May when they downgraded New York-based AIG’s credit ratings. State regulators in Texas said they didn’t know AIG was investing cash collateral from the securities-lending business in subprime-linked assets and were concerned the insurance units hadn’t put aside enough capital to cover potential losses.
“We were aware of this portfolio, but we didn’t have transparency on what was in it because it was off-balance sheet,” said Doug Slape, chief analyst at the Texas Department of Insurance in Austin, which oversees three AIG insurers that have suffered about 60 percent of the writedowns.
June 27th, 2008 at 6:16 am
I take the position that it would be rude to call someone at home on business at 5:30 am, even if they didn’t have a baby in the house.
June 27th, 2008 at 6:22 am
From the Jersey Journal:
Condos get better tax deal
The Jersey City City Council voted Wednesday to give the Canco Lofts, a condo complex at the old American Can factory on Dey Street, a better tax abatement deal, responding to claims by the developer that sales had stalled.
James McCann, the attorney representing New York-based Coalco, the developer, said the change would save condo owners a total of $6.7 million during the first 10 years of the abatement.
In a 7-0 vote, the council voted to stick with a 30-year term for the abatement, but reduced the payments in lieu of taxes due the city from 16 percent of gross annual revenue to 10 percent for the first 10 years, 12 percent for the next 10 years and 14 percent for the final 10 years.
Coalco had agreed to the original terms of the abatement two years ago.
Out of 202 condos on the market since November, 57 have signed contracts, Coalco spokeswoman Christa Segalini said. More than 500 units are planned for the site.
June 27th, 2008 at 6:35 am
From CNBC:
Existing Sales Rise, But Look At What’s Selling
An interesting aside on the existing home sales numbers today from the National Association of Realtors: Sales appear to be hovering just below the five million annualized rate, with little bumps up and down and sales bounce around the bottom.
…
I asked the Realtors how much of these sales are “distressed” properties, that is, short sales (where the seller works with the lender to sell at a price below the mortgage value–that way the seller and the lender avoid foreclosure, which usually ends in bigger losses) and REO sales which are bank-owned properties (homes that have already gone through foreclosure).
According to the Realtors, a full one third of sales are distressed properties. Think about that. Five million home sales expected this year and of those about 1.65 million will be homes that a seller couldn’t afford to keep.
June 27th, 2008 at 6:36 am
Top CNBC Idiotic Observations:
1. We’ve hit a market bottom
2. Stocks are oversold
3. Overseas markets won’t be affected by the U.S. slowdown
4. Now’s a good time to buy financials
5. Rebound will happen in the second half
6. Core inflation only 2.1% (what are you little people complaining about?)
7. Now’s the time to bet on emerging markets
8. Housing turn-around in sight
Bonus Question: Who is the bigger idiot: Cramer or Dennis Kneale?
June 27th, 2008 at 7:04 am
From Reuters:
Merrill may take $5.4 bln in Q2 writeoffs: Lehman
Merrill Lynch & Co will likely incur $5.4 billion of write-downs in the second quarter, mainly from its exposure to monolines, said an analyst at Lehman Brothers, who also saw higher quarterly losses at the world’s largest brokerage.
Analyst Roger Freeman raised his write-down view by $3 billion for Merrill, making his estimate the highest among Wall Street analysts. Analysts have till date expected write-downs to range from $3.5 billion to $4.2 billion.
“We did a deeper review of Merrill’s monoline exposures on non-ABS CDO (asset-backed security and collateralized debt obligation) assets… this incremental $1.7 billion of writedowns constitutes the majority of our adjustment,” Freeman said.
In addition to the monoline write-down, the analyst said he was now incorporating a larger CDO/subprime write-down following a sharp decline in the ABX index over the past few days. ABX, a synthetic index of home equity asset-backed securities tied to credit default swaps, is comprised of risky home loans.
June 27th, 2008 at 7:17 am
rude to call someone at 5:30am period
June 27th, 2008 at 7:28 am
From the WSJ:
Fed May Give Private Equity
More Leeway to Help Banks
By DAVID ENRICH, ROBIN SIDEL and DAMIAN PALETTA
June 27, 2008; Page C1
The Federal Reserve may soon make it easier for private-equity firms and others to invest in the nation’s ailing banks, according to people familiar with the matter.
With bank stocks crumbling and the second quarter drawing to a close Monday, the changes could offer a lifeline to cash-strapped lenders desperate to secure capital.
“This would be a bit of a sea change for the Fed,” said Gregory Lyons, head of the financial-services practice at law firm Goodwin Procter LLP. “A number of banks would love to access the private-equity pool. It’s a clean slug of money.”
The move comes as regulators grow increasingly worried about the ability of many banks to replenish capital amid the worst banking crisis in decades. Small and regional lenders are expected to have a tougher time lining up new investors, particularly since some recent capital infusions have stuck banks’ new shareholders with big losses.
The Fed and other banking regulators historically have resisted unregulated entities’ exerting control over banks, and tough enforcement of federal rules has often prevented private-equity firms from pumping much cash into banks.
June 27th, 2008 at 7:34 am
14 tbw
agree. they don’t pay me enough.
June 27th, 2008 at 7:34 am
So looks like the Housing Bail out bill is stalled cause some Senators tried to sneak in some other crap into the bill.
Bofa must be lobbying hard for the bill as they start to gag on the Country Wide.
I wouldn’t take Bofa stock even if someone paid me to own it. I think Angelo stuck it to Kenny and now Kenny is putting up a brave face.
After pumping millions to build out Investment Banking and hiring the tier two management from the big I-Banks to lead Bofa Divisions, here’s what Ken had to say about I-Banking !!
“I’ve had all of the fun I can stand in investment banking at the moment, So to get bigger in it is not something I really want to do.”
Before long he’d say something similar about Mortages !!
June 27th, 2008 at 7:40 am
12 DL
“Bonus Question: Who is the bigger idiot: Cramer or Dennis Kneale?”
I’m going to have to vote for Dennis Kneale. Cramer’s got a show and a schtick, which is more about getting viewers than anything else. Cramer’s a maroon, but Kneale doesn’t even have an excuse.
June 27th, 2008 at 7:41 am
“So looks like the Housing Bail out bill is stalled cause some Senators tried to sneak in some other crap into the bill. ”
Unfortunately, the reason they chose that bill to sneak in their cr*p was that it is the bill voted Most Likely to Pass.
June 27th, 2008 at 7:46 am
“So much for that second-half rebound.”
Hah. I guess Meredith Whitney’s star is shining a bit brighter these days. Eh?
June 27th, 2008 at 7:47 am
There are some bright things about $7 a gallon gas.
1) It will stop the spread of Mcmansions for the masses
2) People will rediscover walking
3) Soccer moms will no longer be able to schedule Madison and Claymore’s every second of their lives with soccer, music, singing, art, mom’s book club, mom’s walking club, fingerpainting for 3 year olds, yadda yadda, yadda and other mindless child must be entertained at all times bs
4) We might actually eat better food and get healthier. Will TV shows switch from flipping houses to gardening shows so we can grow fruits and veggies on our 1/5 acre yards?
5) We will have a great excuse to avoid visiting relatives and casual acquaintances
June 27th, 2008 at 7:48 am
We live in South Brunswick, NJ. We placed our townhouse in Nassau Square on the market last Monday. The following weekend we got two offers and are no in attorney review.
Our asking price was about $20K less than neighbors. We are in the process of finding a large home for ourselves.
June 27th, 2008 at 7:49 am
“It’s a great time to buy something….plasma TV, Stocks….or a home!”
Dirt.
June 27th, 2008 at 7:50 am
#12 DL
Don’t forget the money honey. 2 years ago I saw her roll her eyes in disgust at the suggestion of a housing bubble. Hope she went long lots of north jersey real estate.
June 27th, 2008 at 7:50 am
I am so glad I got the 4cyl Accord instead of the 6!!
June 27th, 2008 at 7:52 am
“I take the position that it would be rude to call someone at home on business at 5:30 am”
njp,
Especially if it’s your margin clerk in London.
June 27th, 2008 at 7:55 am
“This would be a bit of a sea change for the Fed,”
The fed is lost with the dolphins in the Shrewsbury. By the way, have they made their way back to sea?
June 27th, 2008 at 7:56 am
“Dennis Kneale”
Total buffoon. Unless, of course, if you use him as a contra play.
June 27th, 2008 at 7:58 am
Anti[17],
Good to see you back. Haven’t heard from you in awhile.
June 27th, 2008 at 7:59 am
Whoa some of you guys are up WAY early…. I have college kids home and the only time i get uninterrupted puter time is now…so…from yesterday…what’s up in Montclair people??? I work in the pool (no, I’m not kidding) at a Y…mine is a JCC and therefore we have police protection a lot…helped me yesterday when i got stopped by a cop who moonlights at my Y and recognized me and didn’t give a ticket…apparently you supposed to come to a complete stop at a stop sign and look both ways before proceeding..who knew?
June 27th, 2008 at 8:03 am
Babs Corcoran coming up on the Today show. Can’t wait for her next tidbits of advice…
June 27th, 2008 at 8:04 am
Also from yesterday’s thread..RE#221 and #321
I have one word for your older first time Mom friend…Allendale.See yesterday’s post #321 for more info. This is the stuff i know. Unfortunately I also know the loss of a pet and you have my condolences..my kids still talk about our cat who ran off when we brought home our dog and except for the chipmunks and field mice who now run wild around here we all still miss her.
June 27th, 2008 at 8:06 am
#31…just turned on channel 4 …that woman has some crazy eyes…Coldplay too!
June 27th, 2008 at 8:07 am
Actually, its late where I live. Hint, a gallon of gas will cost you north of $10.
June 27th, 2008 at 8:08 am
How much will eventually be picked up by the Essex taxpayers? A high school stadium on Bloomfield Ave to depict the LA Coliseum, complete with a seperate clock tower?? Will they charge a license fee to all the taxpayers in the county? Wait to they calculate the final tally for this extravagance.
http://www.nj.com/starledger/stories/index.ssf?/base/news-5/1214455076124660.xml&coll=1
June 27th, 2008 at 8:13 am
#35 BC
$24 million for a high school sports complex? WTF? Another example of the waste in our schools. When will people realize that the government spends our money, not government money?
June 27th, 2008 at 8:15 am
North Korea blows up its own nuclear reactor. On purpose.
http://www.cnn.com/2008/WORLD/asiapcf/06/27/northkorea.explosion/index.html
Will this trigger a 1 day rally in the market?
June 27th, 2008 at 8:20 am
nj.com
Traffic declines at Hudson River crossings
http://www.nj.com/news/ledger/jersey/index.ssf?/base/news-10/121454140152510.xml&coll=1
June 27th, 2008 at 8:20 am
BOSTON (MarketWatch) — KBH 18.13, -1.06, -5.5%) before Friday’s opening bell reported a second-quarter loss of $255.9 million, or $3.30 a share, compared with a loss of $148.7 million, or $1.93 a share, in the year-ago period. Total revenue slipped to $639.1 million from $1.41 billion, the Los Angeles-based residential builder said. The latest quarter’s results included pretax charges of $176.5 million for inventory and joint venture impairments and the abandonment of land option contracts, and $24.6 million for goodwill impairment. “Despite substantially lower home prices, relatively low interest rates and an abundance of choices, potential new home buyers remain reluctant to purchase a home,” said KB Home Chief Executive Jeffrey Mezger in a statement.
June 27th, 2008 at 8:25 am
“$24 million for a high school sports complex?”
bairen,
When it is all said and done, it will be closer to $40M. Hey, what the f*ck, it comes with a giant clock tower. On a positive note, the Newark residents won’t have to shell out any $ for a wrist watch.
June 27th, 2008 at 8:34 am
#29 BC
I have been in Bangalore for since last December off-shoring some jobs. More on the way. Avg cost per employee in Bangalore about 50K USD a year as opposed to 300K per year in NY. Even with the much lower productivity it’s still commercial atleast for now. I was offered 30 people in Bangalore for 10 people I had to loose in NY.
Next years budget season should be kicking off shortly and given the mood on the street, any head count increase will have to be in India, I think.
June 27th, 2008 at 8:35 am
With outsourcing you get what you pay for…
June 27th, 2008 at 8:36 am
Anti,
What’s it like there? Is it worth a move?
June 27th, 2008 at 8:37 am
From MarketWatch:
U.S. May real disposable incomes flat excluding rebates
U.S. May incomes, spending get boost from rebates
U.S. May incomes rise 1.9% vs. 1.5% expected
U.S. May core inflation up 0.1%, vs. 0.2% expected
June 27th, 2008 at 8:38 am
Isn’t this sweet of big Dick:
Lehman’s Fuld, McDade to Forgo Their 2008 Bonuses (Update1)
By Yalman Onaran
June 27 (Bloomberg) — Lehman Brothers Holdings Inc. Chief Executive Officer Richard Fuld and President Herbert “Bart” McDade will forgo 2008 bonuses, the biggest chunk of their pay, after the fourth-biggest U.S. securities firm reported its first quarterly loss since going public.
http://www.bloomberg.com/apps/news?pid=20601087&sid=aWTfB3net_2M&refer=home
You think last years billions will make up for it?
June 27th, 2008 at 8:41 am
“Lehman’s Fuld, McDade to Forgo Their 2008 Bonuses”
he,
HMMM? What’s that regarding the 9th inning?
June 27th, 2008 at 8:41 am
30 laurie,
who says we go to bed????
June 27th, 2008 at 8:46 am
Here comes the shell(pun) game.
SEC looks to classify oil sands as reserves
The plan, which is a response to industry changes in the past three decades, aims to help investors get a ‘more accurate and useful’ picture of a company’s reserves
http://link.ft.com/r/J0VG55/WV14X/QHPW/4ZK6N/IEVIL/SN/t
June 27th, 2008 at 8:46 am
From the WSJ:
Stimulus Boosts Consumer Spending
By JEFF BATER
June 27, 2008 8:34 a.m.
WASHINGTON — Consumer spending surged in May, fed by mounting inflation and the round of income-tax rebates unleashed to brace a soft economy.
Personal consumption increased by 0.8% compared to the month before, the Commerce Department said Friday. That was the biggest gain since 1.0% in November 2007. April spending went up 0.4%, revised from a previously estimated 0.2% increase.
Personal income increased at a seasonally adjusted rate of 1.9% compared to the month before. That was the largest gain since 3.2% in September 2005. Income rose 0.3% during April, revised from a previously estimated 0.2% increase.
Economists had forecast a 0.4% increase in personal income during May and a 0.7% climb in consumer spending.
Consumer spending makes up about 70% of U.S. gross domestic product, reflecting a big part of the economy. Climbing prices helped elevate spending last month. In fact, when adjusted for inflation, spending in May climbed 0.4% — which was the largest gain of its kind since 0.5% in December 2006, yet much smaller than the unadjusted 0.8% increase in May spending. Friday’s data revealed a price index for personal consumption expenditures rose 0.4% in May compared to the prior month — double the increase of 0.2% in April.
Compared with a year earlier, the PCE price index climbed 3.1% in May. The year-over-year climb in April was 3.2%.
The PCE price index excluding food and energy, or core PCE, rose 0.1% in May, after rising 0.1% in April. Year over year, it climbed 2.1% in May, after increasing 2.1% in April.
June 27th, 2008 at 8:47 am
From Reuters:
KB Home posts deeper loss
KB Home, the No. 5 U.S. home builder, posted a deeper quarterly loss on Friday on tumbling revenue as the United States faced its deepest housing slump in months.
KB reported a net loss of $255.9 million, or $3.30 per share, in its second quarter, compared with a loss of $148.7 million, or $1.93 per share, last year.
June 27th, 2008 at 8:48 am
From Bloomberg:
Royal Bank of Scotland Credit Ratings Are Lowered by Moody’s
Royal Bank of Scotland Group Plc, the U.K.’s second-biggest bank, had its credit rating lowered by Moody’s Investors Service who cited “higher volatility” in its securities unit and “greater risk” of defaults at its U.K. division.
June 27th, 2008 at 8:49 am
#43 HEHE
Traffic, pollution & Law and Order is a b$#@%. Bangalore is years away from any decent infrastructure. If there is no compelling reason, I wouldn’t recommend moving there now.
June 27th, 2008 at 8:51 am
Too busy to look for the link but there was a report today on rising mortage rates. The interviewee said housing prices would have to drop another 30 percent if monthy payments were to stay at pre-hike levels.
June 27th, 2008 at 8:55 am
India is great for workers. Not thinkers. However, 90% of Clerks, AVPs and SVPS are like the working dead and can be easily replaced. The 10% of people who have brain activity in NY should be able to keep their jobs as someone has to direct the Indian worker drones. However, India in 20 years will resemble the US with a more capitialist mindset and they will be thinkers too and the 10% in NY will also get laid off.
June 27th, 2008 at 8:57 am
Oil Sands = Reserves then you may want to check out a stock called Oil Sands Quest, BQI, due your due diligence. Of course there’s Suncor, OXy etc too
June 27th, 2008 at 8:57 am
AntiTrump,
On the last day that I left Chennai, their version of CNBC (much more honest than ours, as each announcer kept saying the entire Indian market is overvalued) had this amazing graphic animation when the Sensex hit 21,000. This was late January. I checked the index today and it’s in the 13,000s. I feel bad for all of those who jumped into these emerging markets after ours began to implode late last year.
This is just crazy!
June 27th, 2008 at 8:59 am
Ps. I owned BQI before that douchebag Cramer started popping off about it last Friday. Usual Cramer affect, up 10% one day, down 10% the next.
June 27th, 2008 at 9:03 am
clot
“Babs Corcoran coming up on the Today show. Can’t wait for her next tidbits of advice…”
Please summarize!
June 27th, 2008 at 9:03 am
grim :51
That’ll teach the Royal Bank of Scotland to pop-off about the upcoming gloom & doom!! Next time they’ll keep their forecasts to themselves.
June 27th, 2008 at 9:03 am
#54
John, Agree with you from a Financial Services perspective.
However, Manufacturing/IT is moving up the value chain. They are now starting to move some R&D there.
But I do agree that India is atleast 10 to 15 years away from from giving the developed countries in the west any serious competition in High end R&D, Tech and Financial services.
June 27th, 2008 at 9:11 am
I have been in Bangalore for since last December off-shoring some jobs. More on the way. Avg cost per employee in Bangalore about 50K USD a year as opposed to 300K per year in NY.
India will always keep cost advantage by devaluing their currency to keep the Software industry. The key to successful outsourcing lies here in US. If you have developed matured process for Procedures, Standards, Documentations, Communications, Training etc… than you will succeed or fail miserably. I have been on all sides of this work - managing teams in India, US and both. I will tell you don’t fall for Indian or US services companies fool you into 5:1 cost reduction ratio. I work with all of them daily and listen they make their pitch to clients and kind of laugh in my mind. The real cost is time, and without proper management and process, you can take double the amount of time to get same thing done. Of course with proper mgmt, you can be done in half as well.
What John mentions here about thinkers is not true. I have done much complex product development in India than you could ever do in US. The key is hiring smart people and training them, in India average work experience is very less and folks are not exposed to many biz scenarios as here.
June 27th, 2008 at 9:16 am
AntiTrump: Also I would recommend not even going to Banglore for Employee turnover reason. If you want long term commitment from employees, go for 2nd tier towns like Pune, Nashik etc… Of course you will have same infrastructure issues but employees wont change jobs as quickly.
June 27th, 2008 at 9:16 am
I’m very annoyed at Weichert Financial. I specifically asked them if it would be worth it to get the “Floating” loan before we locked in our rate and they said absolutely not. The market sinks and the 10 year is at 4.01 right now we locked in when it was at 4.11. I really don’t know how much of a lower Interest rate we could have gotten but i’m sure it would have been a little better than 6.75%. Man i feel stupid. Not to mention that i wouldn’t even care if we could have gotten the 6.125% we were approved for but we “make to much money” to be considered first time buyers and therefore cannot take advantage of it. Because we can’t put 20% down we’re essentially being punished, or at least that what it feels like. “If you’re poor and don’t make X dollars here’s a great rate, good luck!” But “if you make X dollars and can actually afford the house but can’t put 20% down here’s a much higher rate, thanks for all the cash!”
June 27th, 2008 at 9:17 am
you guys are such pessimist, Look at th ebrite side of things. This country was founded on optimism.
“If you exclude the sub-prime, or the financials, things look good.”
“If you strip out food and energy, inflation is not a problem.”
“You can never underestimate the resilience of the American consumer.”
“The earnings are way down, but the earnings are above Wall Street estimates!”
June 27th, 2008 at 9:19 am
The millions of economic stimulus payments gave a massive jolt to household finances in May, sending after-tax incomes up by the largest amount in 33 years.
Ok, so the proletariat have squandered their meager rations in a flash and stand there with their bellies hanging out and chocolate smeared on their faces waiting for more. So what was the purpose of throwing this money out of helicopters?
June 27th, 2008 at 9:28 am
#65 gary,
It’s to delay the day of reckoning till after the elections
June 27th, 2008 at 9:29 am
India is in for a world of hurt,India imports around 76% of the crude oil it processes. Crude oil is the country’s largest import item in dollar terms. Indian Oil is running losses of $76 million a day, and will run through its line of credit of $21.4 billion by July.
The other two state run oil companies are not in any better shape. There will be widespread portests in India soon over fuel costs. They will need to raise prices at the pump and perhaps drop some of their subsidies to stay solvent.Perhaps even double to cost of gasoline.
June 27th, 2008 at 9:30 am
I doubt it will succeed.
although the payments seem to be staggered. some coworkers got their check in May, another got his this week, and my parents just received notice they are getting their check in July.
June 27th, 2008 at 9:32 am
Stu: CNBC had this amazing graphic animation when the Sensex hit 21,000. This was late January. I checked the index today and it’s in the 13,000s.
Indian Stock market has always been very volatile as there is lot of speculative money than long term investment money. In US you have large amount of 401K money being pumped every month, you don’t have anything even close to like that in India. Also it is prone to scams. In ‘92 there was scam by Harsha Mehta, in ‘00 there was scam by ketan parekh. I am sure something will come out in couple of years. Also all large stock brokers are from few communities and most people are related or know each other. Its very easy to manipulate the market.
June 27th, 2008 at 9:33 am
Actually Gary, the proletariat were suckered into spending money they didn’t even have.
If you give everyone a dollar, everyone will be a dollar richer, but no one will be better off as inflation erodes the added value of that additional dollar.
If you’ve saved that dollar, you’d be in exactly the same position as you started from, and no better. But if you spent it, you’ve put yourself into a position worse than you started in. Not only are you a dollar poorer, but the remainder of your savings has been devalued as well.
Who comes up with these things?
June 27th, 2008 at 9:34 am
Lets just give everyone a million dollars, then we’ll all be millionaires and there won’t be anything else to worry about…
June 27th, 2008 at 9:37 am
I have been in Bangalore for since last December off-shoring some jobs. More on the way. Avg cost per employee in Bangalore about 50K USD a year as opposed to 300K per year in NY. Even with the much lower productivity it’s still commercial atleast for now. I was offered 30 people in Bangalore for 10 people I had to loose in NY.
Next years budget season should be kicking off shortly and given the mood on the street, any head count increase will have to be in India, I think.
Good luck. The large pharmaceutical I work for has been trying to outsource IT operations to India for the past 8 months. It’s a complete disaster; we went from having great IT service to poor service with tons of communications issues. Don’t drop any of your resources until India picks up your operations 100%.
It’s OK to outsource SOME of the operations, but when it comes to the higher-technical level jobs; they really should have thought it over.
We probably had 30 guys here in our teams supporting the infrastructure; replaced with 100+ guys in India who are clueless.
In any case; I resigned this week and will be starting a new contract gig in July…
-R
June 27th, 2008 at 9:39 am
HE (55)-
Gran Tierra (GTE)- also Canadian- smokes ‘em all. Lots of operations in S. America.
June 27th, 2008 at 9:40 am
patient (58)-
Couldn’t bear to watch her, so I did some work. I turned on the TV again to see Coldplay, though.
June 27th, 2008 at 9:42 am
Richie: I agree with your experience. We had similar issues (company hired 400 people in India in 6 month), and then I quit due to frustration.
The issue always has been some senior manager in US, just looks at bottom line number and goes for kill. That is tries to do things in Big Bang manner without realizing any operational issues. To me the issue always has been political and lack of ground experience at Senior mgmt level in US.
June 27th, 2008 at 9:43 am
Joey (63)-
Why are you hooked up with Weichert Financial? They are the worst. Shit rates and horrible service…if you think they suck now, just wait until you’re ready to close. A complete Chinese fire drill.
June 27th, 2008 at 9:44 am
gary (65)-
I’m going to buy drugs with my rebate check. :)
June 27th, 2008 at 9:47 am
Lets just give everyone a million dollars, then we’ll all be millionaires and there won’t be anything else to worry about…
Grim,
Please don’t give Congress and the Fed any dangerous ideas they will support, after all it is an election year.
June 27th, 2008 at 9:48 am
grim,
That’s why I said Bernanke should lower the fed rate another 100 basis points. Why not? In fact, have the government back every single dollar… just lend people money like it was 2003 again. Who cares about inflation or a weak dollar and that nonsense. Tell people to go out and buy, buy, buy. The economy will be singing.
June 27th, 2008 at 9:49 am
Yes but did the think of the product or just develop it? The airplane, empire state building, lightbulb, Bike, telephone, man on the moon, internet etc. required some radical thinking and the US schools are good at that. The indian schools are good on turning out great engineers, doctors, chemists, IT people. But will those people cure aids, develop a car that runs on water, invent flying cars etc.? Or will they used their engineering know how and cheap labor to implemen? Even Japan and their world famous SONY brand, just copies things. The Radio, TV, DVD player, etc. none of it was invented by them. But their far superior education, dedication and work ethic made our inventions better. India is one of the birthplaces of civilization and Hindism is the oldest religion, how the heck did India not invent all of these things? Heck at least you could have come up with toliet paper given the 10,000 years you had to think!! Just kidding on that one!!
What John mentions here about thinkers is not true. I have done much complex product development in India than you could ever do in US. The key is hiring smart people and training them, in India average work experience is very less and folks are not exposed to many biz scenarios as here.
June 27th, 2008 at 9:49 am
It’s odd how people keep complaining about $4 gas. Yet the same sheeple fail to realize how expensive it will be to heat their homes this winter, how their food bill will increase at double digit rates, how oil is used in many products and those will be going up. etc.
I think most people spend more on utilities and food than they do on gas, yet $4 gas to cruise suburbia gets all the attention.
June 27th, 2008 at 9:50 am
[24] barien,
Don’t use money honey too much. She copyrighted it. Don’t want to get Grim in trouble ;-)
June 27th, 2008 at 9:50 am
clotpoll [77],
I’ll hook ya up, yo. Wadda ya need? Eightball? Diesel? P-funk?
June 27th, 2008 at 9:51 am
“Who cares about inflation or a weak dollar and that nonsense.”
Gary,
Our present monetary/fiscal policy indicates this.
June 27th, 2008 at 9:52 am
“man on the moon”
John,
REM?
June 27th, 2008 at 9:53 am
June 27 (Bloomberg) — American International Group Inc. plans to absorb losses for a dozen insurance units after their securities-lending accounts suffered $13 billion of writedowns tied to the subprime-mortgage collapse during the past year.
Dopes - sec lending is known as riskless trading, done via loanet and DTC, market to market daily and counterparties are vetted by credit and you can demand collateral back daily. Only AIG can turn it into a system to trade crap with crap counterparts and lose 5 billion.
June 27th, 2008 at 9:54 am
“Personal income increased at a seasonally adjusted rate of 1.9% compared to the month before. That was the largest gain since 3.2% in September 2005. Income rose 0.3% during April, revised from a previously estimated 0.2% increase.”
Where’s the recession I ask? People have more money then ever, there are too many jobs and not enough people and home are still selling.
When will the gloom and doom arrive in NJ? So far I don’t see it.
June 27th, 2008 at 9:54 am
[from yesterday's thread]
Pat and Still — Nice to see some old school ‘85 grads here, incl. me.
Still, what house were you in?
Hype, if you have CVs send them. Mrs. Nom gets a bonus if she refers a hire.
June 27th, 2008 at 9:54 am
#82 nom
How about $ bee sugar?
Is that safe? :)
June 27th, 2008 at 9:55 am
In 5 minutes;
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=EF–ldYIBnM
Record lows?
June 27th, 2008 at 9:55 am
# njpatient Says:
June 27th, 2008 at 6:16 am
“I take the position that it would be rude to call someone at home on business at 5:30 am, even if they didn’t have a baby in the house.”
Very rude. Could be a good power play though.
June 27th, 2008 at 9:56 am
Yes Man on the Moon. Heck Kennedy put his balls on the anvil for the whole world to wack when he said we would be on the moon by the end of the 1960s. With slide rules, adding machines and room sized Univac punch card early computers the US did it. A feat that the commies to this day could not recreate with a million times the technology. And don’t say it did not happen it did. My uncle worked for Grumman, Sperry and Fairchild Republic all during the 1960s to 1980s and it is amazing what they could do.
June 27th, 2008 at 9:58 am
“there are too many jobs and not enough people and home are still selling.”
Frank,
Inflation.
Question;
What do you get when you combine Richard, BIA, Listen, and the lumber trader?
Answer;
Frank
June 27th, 2008 at 9:58 am
“100+ guys in India who are clueless”
The core of the problem here is the 100 Indian associates sitting around saying “What the F*** are we supposed to be doing, because no-one has told us?” Off-shoring IT is a major task that needs a significant amount of capital and time and planning invested before it will generate returns. One big issue is telecoms. Most of the country is still running copper wire so there are frequent outages.
June 27th, 2008 at 9:58 am
oil shale / tar sands
hmm people thought drilling is bad w/ regard to pollution? you might want to look into oil shale/tar sand recovery methods. And of course then there is the question of stated vs in situ vs recoverable reserves. Guess which number they arent going to use? guess which number is the smallest? The avergae recovery from traditional oil wells is about 30%. Oil shale and tar sands look to be well below that avergae. SO next time yyou hear about a 100 bazillion barrel reserve in oil shale or tar sands, consider that we will be lucky to recover even a quarter of that…. but wait there is more! 1 barrel of kerogen (What is actually in the ground, a precursor to “real” oil) is the equivilent of about 1/2 of a barrel of light sweet crude (what we are getting out of saudi arabia).
Now lets check those numbers. We can only recover about 30% ( i will be generoous here) of the 100 bazillion barrel reserve to start with. Then the recovered material is only equal (in energy) to about 1/2 of that in light sweet crude terms ( light sweet crude is the gold standard of oil).
SO this mean that we can expect to actaully see 15 bazillion barrels worth of energy from that 100 bazillion barrel oil shale reserve AND this is best case scenarion.
YEEHAW!
PS i am not suggesting that these sources not be used, but be ready for all sorts of stories about how we are now an oil super power!
PSS I have run a little loose and fast with my numbers, but they are all ballpark figures
June 27th, 2008 at 9:59 am
frank & bergabe vs. Buffet.
Which side of that trade would you want to take?
June 27th, 2008 at 9:59 am
Please supply status of MLS ID#2499826. Thank you.
June 27th, 2008 at 10:01 am
We haven’t outsourced to a Vendor. Our’s is a captive unit in India. We have been there for a number of years now. The first groups to move there was core infrastructure. Those are the guys who work behind the screens and you never see or hear from until your outlook stops working.
This is the first time for my group, but other groups have been very successful there. I have have heard many success stories and failures stories of outsourced operations in India. We did have our initial set up issues, but over the past couple of years the office has grown to about 2500 people in Bangalore.
There will always be limitations and issues of an off-shored office. It’s just that some firms manage it better than the others.
My firm considers it a success so far and we are broke ground on the second facility this year. Personally, I think the biggest challenge is Domain knowledge and culture.
When the office was starting out, we spend a lot of money paying for expat packages for NY/London employees to work there. Over time we find talent locally to fill the management slots. We also have some people who moved back for personal reasons after spending many years in the west.
June 27th, 2008 at 10:02 am
#95 kettle1
Don’t forget the amount of natural gas it takes to convert tar sands to to synthetic crude. Plus the huge amount of water.
June 27th, 2008 at 10:02 am
From MarketWatch:
U.S. June UMich consumer sentiment 56.4: reports
Record percentage of consumers say finances have worsened
U.S. June consumer sentiment index 3rd lowest since 1952
Consumers’ inflation expectations reach highest in 2 decades
June 27th, 2008 at 10:02 am
BC (93)-
Frank has moved to the “Beavis & Butthead Rolled Into One” wing of the pantheon.
Move over, bi. Although your oil @ $40 call remains a classic.
June 27th, 2008 at 10:03 am
query whether our present economic situation is really unprecedented (see discussion of the Panic of 1837 below):
*****
The American people with one consent gave themselves to an amazing extravagance of land speculation. The Eden which Martin Chuzzlewit saw in later material decay was to be found in the new country on almost every stream to the east of the Mississippi, and on many streams west of it, where flatboats could be floated. Frauds there doubtless were; but they were incidental to the honest delusion of intelligent men inspired by the most extraordinary growth the world had seen. The often quoted illustration of Mobile, the valuation of whose real estate rose from $1,294,810 in 1831, to $27,482,961, in 1837, to sink again in 1846 to $8,638,250, not unfairly tells the story. In Pensacola, lots which to-day are worth $50 each, were sold for as much as lots on Fifth Avenue, in New York, which to-day are worth $100,000 apiece. Real estate in the latter city was assessed in 1836 at more than it was in the greatly larger and richer city of fifteen years later….
http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Panic_of_1837
June 27th, 2008 at 10:03 am
more on Panic of 1837:
The price of public lands was fixt by law at $1.25 an acre; and they were open to any purchaser, without the wholesome limits of area and the restraint to actual settlers which were afterward established. Here then was a commodity whose price to wholesale purchasers did not rise, and the very commodity by which so many fortunes had been made. In public lands, therefore, the fury of money-getting, the boastful confidence in the future of the country, reached their climax. From 1820 to 1829 the annual sales had averaged less than $1,300,000, in 1829 being $1,517,175. But in 1830 they exceeded $2,300,000, in 1831 $3,200,000, in 1832 $2,600,000, in 1833 $3,900,000, and in 1834 $4,800,000. In 1835 they suddenly mounted to $14,757,600, and in 1836 to $24,877,179. In his messages of 1829 and 1830 Jackson not unreasonably treated the moderate increase in the sales as a proof of increasing prosperity. In 1831 his congratulations were hushed; but in 1835 he again fancied, even in the abnormal sales of that year, only an ampler proof of ampler prosperity. In 1836 he at last saw that tremendous speculation was the true significance of the enormous increase. Prices of course went up. Everybody thought himself richer and his labor worth more.
There is no longer dispute that the prostration of business in 1837, and for several years afterward, was the perfectly natural result of the speculation which had gone before.
The enormous extension of bank credits during the three years before the breakdown in 1837 was rather the symptom than the cause of the disease. The fever of speculation was in the veins of the community before “kiting” began. Bank officers dwelt in the same atmosphere as did other Americans, and their sanguine extravagance in turn stimulated the universal temper of speculation.
http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Panic_of_1837
June 27th, 2008 at 10:04 am
bairen (99)-
SA Total has got the tar sands figured out. They’re building a giant nuke plant to power their extraction process.
Smart dudes.
June 27th, 2008 at 10:05 am
[89] barien,
yes, I think so. Flame away at Bartiromo.
Besides, she is done. Old news. I have taken to calling Becky Quick the New Money Honey.
I have also been watching Bloomberg more often in the a.m. for biznews, as it isn’t so campy and gets more to the point. It also has better intl. coverage. And they have some hot reporters as well, so I don’t miss out on the eye candy.
June 27th, 2008 at 10:05 am
John,
my uncle was one of those “bright young engineers” that actually put the whole thing togather and was incharge of the space shuttle atlantis untilhe retired . They were an impressive group and the number of incredible progets that they put together that got put on dusty shelves was amazing! the buerocracy killed the dream and the potential that that dream gave rise to. You should see some of the proposed projest the engineers drew up ( he left me his old design files) impressive stuff! a lot of them obviously read a lot of issac asimov.
June 27th, 2008 at 10:05 am
grim Says:
June 27th, 2008 at 9:34 am
Lets just give everyone a million dollars, then we’ll all be millionaires and there won’t be anything else to worry about…
It will be a mess initially and inflation wiol be something like 1000%/year - but hey we won’t have to pay out national debt back!!!
It will be worth about a barrel of oil!!!
USA might have some troubles borrowing money again… but who cares. All our debtors will be royally $crewed
June 27th, 2008 at 10:06 am
SG, Richie, Others:
I agree with your assessment of outsourcing. The teams I trained were unique in that they weren’t IT nor financial nor CS. I trained premedia (prepress/preflighters) technicians. Last year our company pushed most of our composition teams offshore. There was little documentation and we tried to force them to work OUR way. Cultural differences and the lack of procedure caused huge damage to some of our client relationships as turnaround times suffered greatly. With this in mind, I focused my training on learning our culture first, procedure next. Once they understand the process, I allowed them to adjust it to fit their needs constantly explaining that being late is OK as long as the job is done right. Being late and not giving us honest updates will earn you a bus ticket home. Most importantly, it is OK to say “no”. India is the land of the cup half full. No one there ever says “no.” It’s sort of like the Montclair town council.
For what it’s worth, my teams have been nothing short of fantastic and my supers really think it has more to do with teaching them culture than process. They understand the job at hand. Where they fail is when you tell them how they must do the job.
It does help that most of my team have degrees in the industry.
One other thing. Their accuracy is significantly better than my national teams and their ability to learn quickly is astounding. The toughest issue is dealing with attrition (30% annual rate) and constant training of new recruits.
June 27th, 2008 at 10:07 am
Sony, the CD player springs to mind.
I still think the moon landings were staged.
June 27th, 2008 at 10:08 am
All you bears on this board wish for a disaster, the reality is much better, US consumer will figure out a way to make and spend money.Wall St. will find another way to make money and you will try to convince old ladies to sell their homes and move to FL.
June 27th, 2008 at 10:09 am
“Move over, bi. Although your oil @ $40 call remains a classic.”
Clot,
How did I forget to add Bi into the equation?
Sorry Bi. Hey, where is Biluva?
June 27th, 2008 at 10:11 am
In a previous position I did some work evaluating Indian outsourcing. It was amazing what a failure the whole process was for a number of companies. Many companies I examined suffered huge losses of reputation due to poor customer service, just to point out the tip of a very big iceberg. As with any business trend, you have many executives who jump on a particular bandwagon without thinking things through.
I often marvel at the bigwigs and decision-makers I have come across. While some are brilliant, too many are just executive “sheeple”.
June 27th, 2008 at 10:12 am
“All you bears on this board wish for a disaster”
Frank,
I don’t wish for disaster, just 30-40% off 2005.
By the way, nobody has to wish for anything. The masters have done the job for them.
June 27th, 2008 at 10:14 am
104 clott,
i would love to see the numbers on that project . That seems like it wouldnt add up, but what do i know?
June 27th, 2008 at 10:15 am
My dear old mother is going to see her investment advisor today. He called her yesterday to tell her he would need to liquidate some assets if she was going to continue to draw money every month. I wonder how many other retired seniors are getting the same phone call?
June 27th, 2008 at 10:19 am
frank,
I’m not wishing for a disater. I’m predicting one.
Housing bubble collapse = credit crunch.
FED’s loose money and low rates = inflation
Developing countries growth = US having to compete for raw materials as the value of our dollar falls.
Higher raw materials causes higher energy and food costs for consumers who have little to none savings and are watching their houses crash in value.
You don’t have to get too close to a pig farm to know it’s going to stink.
Oink Oink
June 27th, 2008 at 10:22 am
Lodi FUTURE Comp Killer!
286 FARNHAM AVE
Purchased: $760,000 8/4/2006
Current MLS#: 2826140 (also listed as a 2-family)
Original List: $839,555 11/29/2006
Current List: $697,500 6/27/2008
June 27th, 2008 at 10:23 am
Frank says: “US consumer will figure out a way to make and spend money”
This, is the crux of the problem Frank. Wages for the bottom 98% have been declining against inflation since the 1980s. The only thing that has kept the train rolling is easy debt both personal (mortgage/loan/cc) and national (treasuries thanks to the Asian’s). Both have ground to a halt and I see no impetus for an improvement. The more the government prints greenbacks, the less likely the Asians will be to fund additional debt. The gig is up my friend.
America is no longer #1, except in military spending. You must spend some time out of the country for a change of perspective. Mention your an American and EVERYONE ASKS why we elected Bush. Our perception has gone from being the worlds policeman to the worlds slave master. I do not make this stuff up. If you want to make friends outside of the US, you must claim to be a Canadian!
How’s your 401k doing Frank? Optimism will get you a 18% loss in wealth.
June 27th, 2008 at 10:25 am
Joey #63
Did you get hooked up with Weichert Financial through a Weichert Realtor?
Were you also referred to a “Weichert Approved Attorney”? The only absolutely essential qualification for one of those attorneys is that he/she uses Weichert Title Company.
The wh@re lawyers who do that make me sick.
June 27th, 2008 at 10:25 am
#116,
So when are you getting a row boat to go back to Europe? Or are you moving to Mexico?
June 27th, 2008 at 10:26 am
-Goldilocks
-No Contagion
-Consumer Resiliency
-Stagflation
-Slumpflation
-Bustflation
-Complacency
-Concern
-Fear
-Panic
June 27th, 2008 at 10:27 am
If things are so bad in this country and will only get worse why do people are still willing to die to come here? When will all the blogger on this board start moving back to Europe or Mexico? Is grim moving back to Poland soon?
June 27th, 2008 at 10:28 am
Hackensack FUTURE Comp Killer!
108 LAWRENCE ST
Purchased: $249,900 3/21/2005
MLS#: 2823262
Original List: $242,900 6/6/2008
Current List: $235,900 6/27/2008
June 27th, 2008 at 10:28 am
Schumer, a member of the Senate Banking Committee, wrote letters to the Federal Deposit Insurance Corp. and the Office of Thrift Supervision expressing “concern for the safety-and-soundness risks posed by IndyMac.”
Is schumer really asking the Fed to back stop the IndyMac bank from imploding? Is he trying to have Merrill or someone who needs a depositor buy them with a loss limit aka Bear.
If it’s only a political letter type move then why i sthe stock up 5% today?
interesting nonetheless,
June 27th, 2008 at 10:28 am
Frank says(120):
“So when are you getting a row boat to go back to Europe?”
Keep ignoring the reality and Bairen will be paying you to row!
June 27th, 2008 at 10:30 am
Frank,
Many of us would consider moving, but the value of the dollar against foreign currencies is our shackle. Move to Europe sale…Lose half your worth!
June 27th, 2008 at 10:30 am
Ho-Ho-Kus FUTURE Comp Killer!
160 BLAUVELT AVE
Purchased: $1,350,000 6/30/2004
MLS#: 2813578
Original List: $1,479,000 4/4/2008
Current List: $1,349,000 6/26/2008
June 27th, 2008 at 10:30 am
I still wouldn’t mind sharing a glass of wine with Maria. I’m a sucker for nice eyes and she really, really has nice eyes. I believe they would be classified as bedroom eyes.
“Ok… someone toss a bucket of cold water on Gary, he’s sullying up the forum!”
June 27th, 2008 at 10:31 am
#120 frank
Neither one. Prefer Asia and Australia.
It was amazing watching the level of anit-americanism grow from 03 to 07 when I lived in Sydney. The last year I was getting dirty looks several times a day when people heard my accent.
June 27th, 2008 at 10:32 am
frank,
Why so touchy this morning? You get one of those late night margin calls too?
June 27th, 2008 at 10:35 am
41 anti
“Avg cost per employee in Bangalore about 50K USD a year as opposed to 300K per year in NY.”
Yeah, but the commute is a real pain.
June 27th, 2008 at 10:36 am
You NJ taxpayers ae screwed…
letter from the head of CWA local 1037.
“Dear Brothers and Sisters,
Despite the newspaper stories to the contrary – we did not get defeated in the Legislature.
Here’s what happened –
There were a half a dozen bills to cut our benefits including proposals to cut pension benefits by 9%, to put all new workers into 401K plans, to change the formula used to compute the pension from the average of the final 3 years to the average of the final 5 years, and to eliminate anyone not working 35 hours a week from healthcare and pension.
We launched a huge fight with our allies in AFSCME, IFPTE, AFT and the NJEA which included not only membership mobilization, but an extensive media campaign which brought pressure on the Legislature.
We beat back:
All cuts to Parks and Forestry;
All layoffs;
9% cut in pension;
New workers will not go into 401Ks;
We keep 3 years final average salary;
Part-timers keep pension and healthcare (where they have it);
But our enemies (Senators Steve Sweeney and Barbara Buono) are powerful and held the budget hostage.
They extracted 3 concessions as a price of their vote:
A bill changing the Normal Retirement Age for new workers from 60 to 62
At the end of our contract – ALL local government and state government workers lose the Lincoln’s Birthday holiday by statute
New part timers will have to earn $7500 a year to be in the pension plan instead of $1500. (All of our part-timers meet this requirement.)
Do not be discouraged. We protected our members and we have a Fight Back plan!
We demand that Corzine veto the bills that violate the contract.
If he does not, we are filing a grievance. We will seek to enforce the contract.
We are putting together a Day after Thanksgiving plan (which I don’t want to put into email.)
We are putting together a “Reward our Friends – Punish Our Enemies” plan which I also don’t want to put in an email.
Bottomline – We fought hard and beat back the worst. Many legislators are very angry at Sweeney and Buono for holding the budget hostage over the retirement age of people 25 years from now and over Lincoln’s Birthday (which saves nothing). We too will remember this and reward our friends and punish our enemies.
We don’t always win – but we do always fight! Thank you to every Shop Steward and every member who wrote or called their Legislator or came to Lobby Days or rallied to save our Parks. Your participation in mobilization, as always, made a HUGE difference in the outcome of this struggle.
In Solidarity,
Hetty Rosenstein “
You can find this online at:
http://www.cwa1037.org/budgetoutcome.htm
June 27th, 2008 at 10:36 am
re; #118 & 120 & so true about GWB, nearly every time I meet someone new from outside the US, invariably they will ask me why we re-elected him.
I will be travelling in September to Italy, Greece, Croatia and Turkey, not sure if I will pass myself off as Irish or American.
June 27th, 2008 at 10:36 am
#130,
I am loving this market, making so much money shorting bank stocks but I just don’t understand the pessimism.
June 27th, 2008 at 10:39 am
“Hetty Rosenstein”
[132],
The captain of Frank’s ship.
June 27th, 2008 at 10:40 am
Hard to get gloomy when the someone buys a house down the street, flattens it and builds a mcmansion. And where are all these unemployed people, I have hard time filling jobs.
June 27th, 2008 at 10:40 am
Pessimism? What pessimism?
June 27th, 2008 at 10:41 am
Just back from europe where gas prices are more than $10/gal in euro countries and the brits tell me it’s more like $12 in the UK. And we’re complaining?
June 27th, 2008 at 10:42 am
#135 BC
Since Pret seems to have diasappeared, he must have been their navigator.
June 27th, 2008 at 10:42 am
NNJ [136]
What type of jobs?
June 27th, 2008 at 10:44 am
#9
brutal
June 27th, 2008 at 10:46 am
IT, Corporate Finance, Retail (non wall-street).
June 27th, 2008 at 10:46 am
(from yesterday)… so, how many Nittany Lions are there, here? (penn state: a drinking school with a football problem.)
i was a townie. :*)
June 27th, 2008 at 10:47 am
at the federal level, you may be frustrated by either parties. at the state level, it is insane to vote for dems if you want to stay in new jersey. here is just a few reasons:
- raised sales tax by 14% and increased coverage of sales tax
- new COAH Regulations hurting businesses
- found 400 million plus for Democrat Christmas Tree items
- Decreased Municipal funding
- Elimination of property tax refunds
- Extension of the energy tax that was due to be phased out
- Union negotiations with Carla Katz and failure to disclose the emails from Governor Corzine to Ms. Katz
- The whole NJ Toll plan
- The bonding for 3.9 additional more in state debt to add more money for the 31 Abbott districts that already get most of the state funding
June 27th, 2008 at 10:47 am
68 bairen
“my parents just received notice they are getting their check in July.”
My bro gets his in July. Mine arrives shortly after H*ll freezes over.
June 27th, 2008 at 10:49 am
“Lets just give everyone a million dollars, then we’ll all be millionaires and there won’t be anything else to worry about…”
And think of the status symbolism - “My housekeeper is a millionaire, and so is my pool boy!”
June 27th, 2008 at 10:49 am
bi,
I agree with you, but good luck getting the people of Newark, Camden, Paterson, New Brunswick, etc. to agree with you. That’s where all of the gubmint workers live and they ain’t votin’ their jobs away. Speak to the hand!
June 27th, 2008 at 10:50 am
Just back from europe where gas prices are more than $10/gal in euro countries and the brits tell me it’s more like $12 in the UK. And we’re complaining?
US is a different animal where majority of the so called middle class lives in Suburbs. In Europe people live in Cities and their public tansportation is superior to ours.
If there is no Energy policy that aims at drilling then access to mass transportation will be the new granite, inground pool, curb apeal, acres, good schools and prestige neighboors combines equivalent.
just a few years from now in 2012 they expect 2 million less cars on the road.
What does that tell you. A sharp shift downward of our standard of living.
June 27th, 2008 at 10:51 am
“And where are all these unemployed people, I have hard time filling jobs.”
NNJ,
Come down to the canyons.
June 27th, 2008 at 10:52 am
If you look at today’s housing crash I’m sure then umbers will support that from here on the major price reductions will be the one’s that have the largest average commutte.
June 27th, 2008 at 10:52 am
“Retail”
NNJ,
Basic brick and mortar?
June 27th, 2008 at 10:54 am
N.J. housing rules deplored
Developers of commercial projects are abandoning plans; others are trying to figure out, if they do move forward, how to pony up millions of dollars to satisfy new financial requirements that fund affordable housing statewide.
For example, a developer of a proposed power plant in West Deptford, Gloucester County, will need to pay a $45 million lump sum to the state before receiving certificate of occupancy, Riccardi said.
“If it were deferred over 30 years that would be one thing, but there’s no way to pay $45 million up front,” Riccardi said. In the end, it also costs him business when developers needing his services drop projects on which he consults.
The $45 million figure is derived from charging 2.5 percent of the total assessed value of commercial projects and putting that money into an affordable housing fund. Residential projects are charged 1.5 percent.
June 27th, 2008 at 10:55 am
I have a hard time filling IT jobs too.
But its probably because we won’t pay a dime over 50.
June 27th, 2008 at 10:55 am
151, yup, upscale.
June 27th, 2008 at 10:56 am
Clot,
Thanks for the tip, I’ll add it to my list. Here’s one for you TGC. Little oil & gas co.
June 27th, 2008 at 10:57 am
COAH housing units elsewhere still EW’s hope
Council approves $1M addendum after legislators vote to ban RCAs
EAST WINDSOR — The Township Council agreed this week to the concept of paying Long Branch $1.16 million through a regional contribution agreement — a move that would further satisfy East Windsor’s affordable housing obligation — despite the state Legislature’s approval of legislation the day before banning that very practice.
June 27th, 2008 at 11:04 am
#92
my grandfather was an engineer who worked on the first moon launch. it blows my mind how they achieved that without any real computers
June 27th, 2008 at 11:13 am
AP - After tax income rose 5.7% last month due to stimulus checks.
This is NOT good nes.
June 27th, 2008 at 11:13 am
more on precursors to the Panic of 1837:
” During this time [the 1830s], the money supply was increasing (approx. 200%) despite the stable reserve rates of banks. This increase in the supply of money did not come from within the United States, but resulted from a positive specie inflow from foreign investors. British investors found it increasingly attractive to lend to the state governments in the United States in the 1830s.”
June 27th, 2008 at 11:15 am
nes = news
June 27th, 2008 at 11:16 am
Watching the indexing approach lose you money in slow motion……
http://dayton.bizjournals.com/dayton/stories/2008/06/23/daily34.html?ana=yfcpc
June 27th, 2008 at 11:17 am
@ Oleg (22)
Oleg Says:
June 27th, 2008 at 7:48 am
We live in South Brunswick, NJ. We placed our townhouse in Nassau Square on the market last Monday. The following weekend we got two offers and are no in attorney review.
Our asking price was about $20K less than neighbors. We are in the process of finding a large home for ourselves.
——–
Says the Moose:
Chris Walsh! Stop trolling the blog message boards selling overpriced crap! http://tinyurl.com/5k2za5
Once upon a time, row homes were poor city tennaments, and people didn’t delude themselves that they were desirable. They also paid accordingly.
June 27th, 2008 at 11:22 am
Have you guys with experience in India or China found many Americans or Europeans deciding to permanently move there?
The U.S. still seems to attract the talented and ambitious from the rest of the world, how much longer will that last?
June 27th, 2008 at 11:28 am
163: doesn’t exactly answer, but my father in law said, last time he visited, it used to be bright young brits would go to america or canada. now, he says if he was young enough he’d emigrate to australia/new zealand.
June 27th, 2008 at 11:30 am
Stan (163):
“Have you guys with experience in India or China found many Americans or Europeans deciding to permanently move there? The U.S. still seems to attract the talented and ambitious from the rest of the world, how much longer will that last?”
As long as an Indian or Chinese worker can make more money here and then send it home to family, the trend will remain intact.
June 27th, 2008 at 11:33 am
Here’s what I noticed today: ZERO traffic on the SI Expressway heading East. This is a miracle. I am positive that it’s beacause yesterday was the last day of NYC public schools (also my birthday). I cannot believe that all those cars on the road are teachers and parents taking their kids to school. It is unreal. I wonder what they’d think about mandatory carpooling.
June 27th, 2008 at 11:33 am
big problem I see with investing in China in particular (less so India) is that rule of law is basically non-existant. you are basically taking someone’s word for it that he is not simply going to steal your money. people overlook this when economy is going gangbusters, but when there is a pullback and people start defaulting, you are left naked
June 27th, 2008 at 11:35 am
#167
Sounds awfully like WS.
June 27th, 2008 at 11:36 am
lostinny,
Got a late jump this morning and at 7:50am on the GSP between exits 148 and 140, not a single slow down either way. This occurs about 10% of the time I commute. Very strange! 78 wasn’t backed up to route 24 either. This never happens ;)
June 27th, 2008 at 11:37 am
Sorry, take that back.
We just pass new law to legalize the pilfering.
June 27th, 2008 at 11:38 am
Companies like Cognizant, which are headquartered in Teaneck, but have 90% of their business in India, is a much safer way to play emerging markets.
Disclaimer: I think oil will get to $40 in the next few weeks.
June 27th, 2008 at 11:38 am
162#, Whats your point? one is 3bd and the other is 2bd. they are different.
June 27th, 2008 at 11:38 am
re; #118,120,129 re: anit-americanism
The media in other countries is placing the blame on the worldwide recession firmly on Americans.
Fortunately I can put on a pretty decent Irish brogue when the circumstances call for it, and I will use it to escape any raging mobs of anti-americans rioting over fuel prices in Europe.
June 27th, 2008 at 11:40 am
169 Stu
At least we had a nice drive in. I can only imagine what it will be like going home.
June 27th, 2008 at 11:42 am
Last two Friday’s were light traffic wise, on beautiful beach weekends. Another sign of the times, I’m going to LBI next week with the family. 2nd unit of our rental house is unrented. This is unheard of for July 4th at LBI. Our unit is empty this week which means we get to go down Saturday evening rather than Sunday morning!
June 27th, 2008 at 11:45 am
175
I love LBI. Have a great time!
I am very surprised about the vacancies though.
June 27th, 2008 at 12:02 pm
gary (128)-
Becky Quick is a dead ringer for my GF in college. However, she ruins it for me whenever she does a softball interview with people like Buffett. It almost seems like Buffett has told them he won’t appear unless he gets the cute girl who asks the easy questions.
It dawned on me the other day she’s probably the only reason I still turn on CNBC. Her, Gartman and Santelli. The rest of ‘em can go to hell.
June 27th, 2008 at 12:05 pm
Santelli is the only one who seems to be living in reality.
June 27th, 2008 at 12:08 pm
147#, stu
156#, sg,
the problem is not those munucipalities. the problem is people are voting along party line. for example, mayor Janice Mironov herself in that article is a democrats and likely will campaign for state dems in her town east windsor.
http://www.mercerdems.net/partyofficials.htm
June 27th, 2008 at 12:10 pm
Problem with CNBC broadcasters:
These are almost all people who studied broadcasting in college. Doubt any even have an economics minor. These people are making investment calls that the sheeple are following. This should be illegal.
June 27th, 2008 at 12:11 pm
The cd player was invented by philips who licensed the technolgy to sony.
http://www.bloomberg.com/apps/news?pid=20601087&refer=home&sid=ajMo97E3ZvS0
June 27th, 2008 at 12:13 pm
Bi,
When Whitman got in, people didn’t vote along party lines. Maybe you can write Corzine and ask him to make a 4 syllable promise on Saturday and then break it on Sunday. That seems to be the only way to communicate with the sheeple.
No new taxes
Read my lips
Mission accomplished
Yes we can
Tear down this wall
I am a gay american (wait that was a long one)
Did not inhale
Nucular
Etc.
June 27th, 2008 at 12:18 pm
Businessweek article,
The Housing Abyss
Why the worst may be yet to come as forces battering the market gain strength. And the remedy coming from Congress? It’s likely to fall short of the mark
by Peter Coy and Mara Der Hovanesian
June 27th, 2008 at 12:24 pm
182, i think nj legislature is worse than corzine. in general assembly, dem to rep ratio is 48 to 32; in senate, it is 23 to 17. dems can do whatever they want.
June 27th, 2008 at 12:25 pm
You said it!!! My uncle who is in his 80’s is back at work consulting for Boeing. In the dreamliner they had trouble getting IFE and wireless internet working. My uncle fixed the bugs and the dreamerliner has seamless wireless internet. Even cooler Mitusbishi sub Jamco which is an airline seat maker teamed with Mitsubishi electronics and Boeing engineert to make the seats out of this work electronic gadget wise. Everything in a plane is complicated. You may laugh but the dreamliner if the first commerical aircraft with a window in the bathroom. Even that was hard to figure out how to do. The dreamliner is made in the largest building in the world in the state of Washington. You can see that damm building from a crazy distance.
skep-tic Says:
June 27th, 2008 at 11:04 am
#92
my grandfather was an engineer who worked on the first moon launch. it blows my mind how they achieved that without any real computers
June 27th, 2008 at 12:31 pm
From Bloomberg:
Manhattan Office Rents Fall for First Time in Three Years
Manhattan office rents fell 2.2 percent in the second quarter, the first decline in the most expensive U.S. office market since 2005, according to real estate broker Studley Inc.
The decline was 4.4 percent for Class A office space, according to a preliminary second-quarter New York market report by Studley, which represents tenants. The broker blamed a “malaise” among Wall Street securities firms, which hadn’t previously stopped the rise in rents, in a report by Steven Coutts, Studley’s senior vice president for national research services. The full report will be released next week.
“We’re really starting to see the culmination of what people have been expecting to occur since the fourth quarter of last year,” Coutts said in a telephone interview. “It’s the result of the whole chain of events, from the subprime to financial jobs being lost in the city. In some cases, it’s starting to affect secondary industries. We’re starting to see a slowdown in advertising and publishing.”
June 27th, 2008 at 12:31 pm
For Clot:
http://farm3.static.flickr.com/2155/1715379219_32f5150037.jpg
June 27th, 2008 at 12:31 pm
Here’s one…
Next time you go and buy a bottle of water or a Starbucks latte - convert it into price per gallon. It will really surprise you. Think a gallon of gas is expensive at $4.00?
This puts things into perspective.
Diet Snapple 16 oz $1.29 ….. $10.32 per gallon
Lipton Ice Tea 16 oz $1.19 … $9.52 per gallon
Gatorade 20 oz $1.59 ……… $10.17 per gallon
Ocean Spray 16 oz $1.25 …… $10.00 per gallon
Brake Fluid 12 oz $3.15 …… $33.60 per gallon
Vick’s Nyquil 6 oz $8.35 ….. $178.13 per gallon
Pepto Bismol 4 oz $3.85 …… $123.20 per gallon
Whiteout 7 oz $1.39 ………. $25.42 per gallon
Scope 1.5 oz $0.99 ……….. $84.48 per gallon
And this is the REAL KICKER…
Evian water 9 oz $1.49 ……. $21.19 per gallon!
$21.19 for WATER … (and most probably know that Evian spelled backwards is Naive.)
June 27th, 2008 at 12:36 pm
“Manhattan Office Rents Fall for First Time in Three Years ”
Maybe the residential prices will finally fall.
June 27th, 2008 at 12:41 pm
my grandfather was an engineer who worked on the first moon launch. it blows my mind how they achieved that without any real computers
My grabfather was a geniuos who lived through two world wars, communism, socialism, never joined a political party and always managed to remain neutral.
he had 4 wives, he liked to add a young new wife every 8-10yrs. he said it was a formula that worked for him and forced him to stay young.
He had my dad when he was 72 yrs old and my grandma was 19. Now that’s living.
How he did this before V*agra blows my mind.
June 27th, 2008 at 12:41 pm
grim,
#190 stuck in moderation.
June 27th, 2008 at 12:47 pm
Here’s what I noticed today: ZERO traffic on the SI Expressway heading East. This is a miracle. I am positive that it’s beacause yesterday was the last day of NYC public schools (also my birthday). I cannot believe that all those cars on the road are teachers and parents taking their kids to school. It is unreal. I wonder what they’d think about mandatory carpooling.
I was wondering the same thing. I flew thi smorning. I must have been doing at leats 100 on Staten island expressway between Todt Hill road and the verrazanno. Unbelivable.
June 27th, 2008 at 12:49 pm
WAMU is under five bucks.
Last [Tick] 4.8300[ - ]
Change -0.2100
% Change -4.17%
June 27th, 2008 at 12:52 pm
BC Bob Says:
June 27th, 2008 at 10:26 am
-Goldilocks
-No Contagion
-Consumer Resiliency
-Stagflation
-Slumpflation
-Bustflation
-Complacency
-Concern
-Fear
-Panic
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=9AlH2oYedfk
June 27th, 2008 at 12:52 pm
Did Pretard read that? NYC rents falling? He said that would never happen. The commercial rent space was doing well. How can this be?
June 27th, 2008 at 12:53 pm
(189)
Maybe the residential prices will finally fall.
They already are Frank, they already are.
—————
Ridgefield FUTURE Comp Killer!
511 LOWE AVE
Purchase: $595,000 3/2/2007
MLS#: 2826177
Currnet List: $539,000 6/27/2008
June 27th, 2008 at 12:54 pm
alia
“so, how many Nittany Lions are there, here?”
I guess Quakers don’t count?
June 27th, 2008 at 12:56 pm
Qtn to all Finance wiz:
What is the impact of all 401K money going into Stock market? Does it contribute to boom/bubble?
How much money is put into equity mutual funds every year?
Ultimately, does the dollar cost averaging still make sense?