Weekend Open Discussion – Part II

Now Open, Part II!

Rich was nice enough to provide us with our weekend fill of Bergen County comp killers! Thanks Rich!

Harrington Park FUTURE Comp Killer!

182 SCHRAALENBURGH RD
Purchased $600,000 9/21/2006
MLS# 2825662
Listed 6/24/2008
Current Asking: $579,000

Hillsdale FUTURE Comp Killer!

260 MAGNOLIA AVE
Purchased $510,000 10/2/2007
MLS# 2825778
Current Asking: $499,999 6/25/2008

Mahwah FUTURE Comp Killer!

290 MILLER RD
Purchased $540,000 9/30/2004
MLS# 2825724
Current Asking: $529,000 6/25/2008

Wyckoff FUTURE Comp Killer!

727 MOUNTAIN AVE
Purchased $562,500 8/15/2006
Current MLS# 2825519
OLP: $619,900 3/19/2007
Current Asking: $549,900 6/24/2008

Woodcliff Lake FUTURE Comp Killer!

212 GLEN RD
Purchased: $838,000 8/8/2006
Current MLS#: 2825921
OLP: $829,000 5/1/2008
Current Asking: $799,000 6/26/2008

Ridgewood FUTURE Comp Killer!

8 PATRICIA CT
Purchased: $1,105,000 12/1/2004
MLS#: 2721648
OLP: $1,275,000 5/30/2007
Current Asking: $1,040,000 6/26/2008

Lodi FUTURE Comp Killer!

286 FARNHAM AVE
Purchased: $760,000 8/4/2006
Current MLS#: 2826140 (also listed as a 2-family)
Original List: $839,555 11/29/2006
Current Asking: $697,500 6/27/2008

Hackensack FUTURE Comp Killer!

108 LAWRENCE ST
Purchased: $249,900 3/21/2005
MLS#: 2823262
Original List: $242,900 6/6/2008
Current Asking: $235,900 6/27/2008

Ho-Ho-Kus FUTURE Comp Killer!

160 BLAUVELT AVE
Purchased: $1,350,000 6/30/2004
MLS#: 2813578
Original List: $1,479,000 4/4/2008
Current Asking: $1,349,000 6/26/2008

Teaneck FUTURE Comp Killer!

42 GENESEE AVE
Purchase: $380,000 11/22/2004
MLS#: 2819298
Original List: $350,000 5/9/2008
Current Asking: $320,000 6/27/2008

Waldwick FUTURE Comp Killer!

79 E PROSPECT ST
Purchase: $369,000 4/4/2007
MLS#: 2746066
Original List: $392,000 11/16/2007
Current Asking: $339,000 6/27/2008

Dumont FUTURE Comp Killer!

5 BIRCH RD
Purchased: $410,000 6/23/2005
Purchased: $425,000 6/30/2007
Current MLS#: 2824085
Original List: $429,000 2/12/2008
Current Asking: $389,900 6/27/2008

Bogota FUTURE Comp Killer!

69 MCDOUGALL LN
Purchased: $460,000 1/11/2006
MLS#: 2826265
Current Asking: $400,000 6/23/2008

Ridgefield FUTURE Comp Killer!

511 LOWE AVE
Purchased: $595,000 3/2/2007
MLS#: 2826177
Current Asking: $539,000 6/27/2008

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134 Responses to Weekend Open Discussion – Part II

  1. grim says:

    From the WSJ:

    PAGE ONE
    Dow Hits Bear-Market Territory,
    Signaling Woe for Economy
    By E.S. BROWNING
    June 28, 2008; Page A1

    Eight months after they peaked, stocks dropped to the threshold of a bear market, another signal of the mounting challenges that lie ahead for the economy, government and investors.

    Friday’s 106.91-point drop left the Dow Jones Industrial Average at 11346.51, down 19.9% from its October record, after it had fallen as low as 11297.99 during the day. At the day’s low the Dow was down 20.2% from October. Investors typically consider a decline of 20% or more the mark of a bear market.

    It might just be a matter of time. The last bear market, which extended from January 2000 until October 2002 for the Dow, was accompanied by a mild recession and wrenching corporate-profit declines.

    There have been nine declines of this size in all since the 1960s. Bear markets can be sparked by any number of problems — inflated stock values, mounting inflation, rising interest rates or a recession. This time, the problems are unusually broad and varied.

  2. grim says:

    From the Courant

    For Conn., Report Says, More Subprime Problems

    A report released Friday indicates that the state’s mortgage foreclosure troubles could become deeper and last longer than expected.

    New figures show the state has 77,000 active subprime mortgages totaling about $17 billion. Of those, about 15 percent — or 11,550loans totaling $2.5 billion — were seriously delinquent and headed for foreclosure as of Dec. 31.

    That compares with an earlier report showing Connecticut had 71,000 subprime mortgages totaling $15 billion, with about 8 percent — or 5,680 totaling $1.2 billion — that were seriously delinquent as of March 31, 2007.

    The new figures, released by the governor’s subprime task force, also show that two-year, adjustable-rate, subprime mortgages will continue to reset to higher rates through the first half of 2009. Previously it was forecast that the resets would wind down by the end of this year.

  3. grim says:

    From the WSJ:

    KB Home’s Loss Widens as Inventory
    Of Unsold Houses Mounts
    By SHARA TIBKEN and JOHN SPENCE
    June 28, 2008; Page B5

    KB Home reported a wider second-quarter loss because of a weakening housing market and said the glut of unsold homes continues to pile up.

    “Despite substantially lower home prices, relatively low interest rates and an abundance of choices, potential new-home buyers remain reluctant to purchase a home,” Chief Executive Jeffrey Mezger said.

    KB Home said it delivered 41% fewer homes in the May quarter compared with a year earlier, while average selling prices dropped 17% to $226,000. Net orders for new homes tumbled 42%, although the cancellation rate improved to 27% in the second quarter from 53% in the first quarter.

    “Persistently poor demand for new homes during the second quarter amplified pricing pressures and diminished asset values in many of our served markets,” said Mr. Mezger.

    Highlighting their desperation to sell houses, builders have been bringing back the gimmicks: mortgage rates that start low, help with down payments and zero out-of-pocket expenses. Along with offering zero-down deals, the fiscal second quarter was the first full quarter KB Home offered price protection, promising contracted buyers a reduced price if the price tag for comparable homes is trimmed before closing.

  4. Ben says:

    Hey Grim (and pals)–

    Can anyone give me any history on MLS:

    2499944

    and

    2506583

    Much appreciated!

  5. grim says:

    Ben,

    Thanks for the Madison soon-to-be comp killers

    34 Dean Street, Madison NJ

    Purchased: 11/04/2005
    Purchase Price: $600,000

    MLS# 2499944
    Listed: 3/20/2008
    Original List: $600,000
    Current Asking: $565,000
    Days on Market: 100

    42 Lorraine Road, Madison NJ

    Purchased: 7/29/2003
    Purchase Price: $469,000

    MLS# 2462296
    Listed: 11/16/2007
    Original List Price: $499,900
    Last List Price: $499,900
    Days on Market: 152
    Expired

    MLS# 2506583
    Listed: 4/9/2008
    Original List Price: $499,000
    Current Asking: $489,000
    Days on Market: 80
    Active

  6. willwork4beer says:

    Grim,

    Re: 42 Lorraine, 20K away from 2003 sale price and they added roof, furnace and central air in 2008.

    Ouch. That’s gonna leave a mark…

  7. grim says:

    From US News:

    Rent, Don’t Buy, Your Home

    Real-estate agents have been pushing the virtues of homeownership since homes were invented. Or since real-estate agents were invented, anyway. Paying a mortgage, they insist, is a can’t-miss investment (the tax breaks, the appreciation, the thrill of fixing your own roof!). Renting is for simpletons who don’t like keeping their own money.

    But does owning a home really trump renting? With the economy stumbling, house prices falling, and credit tightening, many housing experts are questioning the conventional wisdom. “Over the last decade, it may have been true,” says W. Van Harlow, an economist at the Fidelity Research Institute. “Clearly, there are periods where [the housing market] will dominate. But give this market correction another 18 months, and it may not be true anymore.”

    When the housing market slumps—as it has every 10 or 15 years for the past several decades—homeownership becomes little more than renting, from a bank. Without appreciation, buying a $400,000 house—instead of renting the same property for, say, $2,000 a month—can turn into an expensive, potentially money-losing proposition. Assuming home prices come out of their death spiral (prices fell 4.5 percent in the third quarter compared with last year), they would still have to appreciate at 4 percent every year for a decade—even if rents climbed well above the rate of inflation—before a family would save more owning than renting. An $80,000 down payment could be invested instead in a mutual fund earning 8 percent, and housing comes with myriad other expenses, from maintenance to insurance to taxes, none of which build equity. Tax breaks do ease the pain. But with the average family staying in a house only six years, homeownership during a slump (especially in foreclosure pits like Las Vegas and Tampa, where prices have dropped more than 9 percent since last year) can look less and less like the American dream.

  8. Laurie says:

    Re#6
    That leaves more than a mark…. That is very telling that they did that many improvements and it still dropped that much. Our house has dropped too but we haven’t done sh*t…roof alone is major bucks not to mention a furnace

  9. willwork4beer says:

    Grim,

    Raritan Twp Comp Killer

    54 Elm Terrace

    SLD 07/31/06 $364,000

    SLD 06/23/08 $315,000

  10. grim says:

    Ouch. That’s gonna leave a mark…

    If the loss on improvements leaves a mark, what will the $20k in commissions leave?

  11. willwork4beer says:

    Post traumatic stress disorder…?

  12. grim says:

    Montclair Comp Killer

    19 Yale Terrace

    Purchased: 6/1/2005
    Purchase Price: $762,000

    MLS# 2503228

    Sold: 6/26/2008
    Sale Price: $705,000

  13. BC Bob says:

    “I think the RE bears need to take a summer break.”

    Frank,

    Sorry. It’s engines revved, for the downhill race. All the dominoes were lined up perfectly. Now they are crashing. Stop complaining and suck it up. Maybe you better sell now, take your loss over 3 years [taxes]. Bamanomics might change that to 5-10 year. Who knows, maybe kill it completely.

    Summer, fall, winter, spring; it doesn’t matter. This bear is on the prowl until at least 2011. Buckle up.

    http://www.alaska-in-pictures.com/data/media/2/frightful-brown-bear_2912.jpg

  14. grim says:

    West Orange Comp Killer

    19 Woods End Road

    Purchased: 6/1/2004
    Purchase Price: $379,000

    MLS# 2493002

    Sold: 6/27/2008
    Sale Price: $362,500

  15. grim says:

    West Orange Comp Killer

    151 Forest Hill Road

    Purchased: 12/31/2005
    Purchase Price: $418,000

    MLS# 2459003

    Sold: 6/27/2008
    Sale Price: $395,000

  16. BC Bob says:

    “When the housing market slumps—as it has every 10 or 15 years for the past several decades—homeownership becomes little more than renting, from a bank. Without appreciation, buying a $400,000 house—instead of renting the same property for, say, $2,000 a month—can turn into an expensive, potentially money-losing proposition.”

    [7],

    US News, a lttle late to the game? Sounds like a late 2005 post, from this blog.

  17. bairen says:

    Grim,

    I think this is a future comp killer as well.

    Madison Boro, NJ 07940 465k
    MLS ID# 2503771

    Ad reads ” New roof, siding, tile floor in kitchen, carpeting, paint and newer windows. Private Patio. Rec Room & plenty of storage in bsmt. ”

    I was at this open house a month or so ago. I thought it was 469k back then. The agent was saying the owner had purchased it fairly recently and done lots to it.

  18. grim says:

    Chester Comp Killer

    31 North Road

    Purchased: 7/23/2004
    Purchase Price: $425,000

    MLS# 2498591
    Sold: 6/26/2008
    Sale Price: $390,000

  19. grim says:

    East Hanvoer Comp Killer

    2 Lent Street

    Purchased: 8/31/2005
    Purchase Price: $595,000

    MLS# 2504681
    Sold: 6/23/2008
    Sale Price: $490,000

  20. willwork4beer says:

    Grim,

    Raritan Twp Future Comp Killer

    8 VILLAGE GLEN ROAD MLS#: 2540107

    SLD 06/29/05 $369,000

    OLP 06/23/08 $349,900

  21. grim says:

    Montville Comp Killer

    3 Ryan Court

    Purchased: 9/7/2006
    Purchase Price: $1,883,065

    MLS# 2465933
    Sold:6/27/2008
    Sale Price: $1,875,000

    Might not be a big comp killer, but the owners managed to lose more than $120,000 over 2 years of ownership. 6% commission, ouch.

  22. bairen says:

    Frank, bi, and Pret

    We now have a house with a 2 handle in Madison
    299k http://www.realtor.com/search/listingdetail.aspx?ctid=90066&typ=7&sid=b640a9a57adb4353a8bf91aad0bb9e4e&lid=1099302286&lsn=1&srcnt=84#Detail

    Madison also has 3 other SFH below 400k. I believe in April of 07 there were only 5 houses in Madison below 500k, and four of those were in the 475 to 499k range.

    We now have almost as many below 400k as there were a year ago below 500k.

    Houses in prestigous train towns are going down. All disboard (alight in Australia) the downhill express!!!!

  23. grim says:

    Randolph Comp Killer

    2 Spring Brook Court

    Purchased: 10/25/2005
    Purchase Price: $620,000

    MLS# 2502058
    Sold:6/16/2008
    Sale Price: $580,000

  24. Confused In NJ says:

    The Mayan’s anticipated the current Housing, Oil & Financial Crisis, when they terminated their Calendar December 20, 2012. Intuitive people, the “Mayan’s”, considering that was hundred’s of years ago.

  25. grim says:

    Rockaway Comp Killer

    568 Herrick Drive

    Purchased: 12/22/2005
    Purchase Price: $395,000

    MLS# 2501924
    Sold:6/27/2008
    Sale Price: $385,000

  26. bairen says:

    #24

    Maybe the Mayan managed to pick the bottom of the housing bust?

  27. grim says:

    Washington Twp Comp Killer

    1 Shannon Mountain Lane

    Purchased: 7/23/2003
    Purchase Price: $625,000

    MLS# 2511748
    Sold:6/26/2008
    Sale Price: $616,500

    Below the 2003 purchase price!

  28. frank says:

    #22,
    $299K for this house? If this house sells for anything above 100K the RE market is strong. You sound surprised that homes are listed for less then 500K. Madison has median income for a household of $82,847, median homes should not be selling for more than $248,541 ($82,847 * 3). It looks like prices are double what they should be. You should be very happy.

  29. Confused In NJ says:

    By SETH BORENSTEIN, AP Science Writer
    Fri Jun 27, 9:02 PM ET

    WASHINGTON – There’s a 50-50 chance that the North Pole will be ice-free this summer, which would be a first in recorded history, a leading ice scientist says.

    Maybe Santa will put his house up for Sale (FSBO), once it’s exposed. Bad market though.

  30. gryffindor says:

    njpatient (from the previous thread) – I could fire back a bunch of questions to clueless newbie #2 to make my point, but I’ve found I get exhausted taking to these “own a home or else you are scum” types in the south.

    It’s much more fun to just rub in the ease of my 3 minute walking commute when they are complaining loudly about parking.

  31. Confused In NJ says:

    Madison is a nice Train Town, good Downtown area, good access to Morristown Hospital, three Colleges (Drew, Fairley & St Elizabeth’s), etc. Alway’s preferred it to Chatham.

  32. frank says:

    #13,
    BC Bob,
    The only think I am complaining about is the fact that I sold my place in Hoboken in 2005 and prices have doubled since then. I wish I bough more in 2005 since prices are still going up. When I see prices dropping below 2x income I will call it a disaster. Right now things are better than ever when it comes to RE in NJ.

  33. grim says:

    Basking Ridge Comp Killer

    152 Patriot Hill Drive

    Purchased: 8/22/2007
    Purchase Price: $640,000

    MLS# 2498959
    Sold:6/26/2008
    Sale Price: $610,000

  34. grim says:

    Hillsborough Comp Killer

    5 Crammer Lane

    Purchased: 9/13/2006
    Purchase Price: $495,000

    MLS# 2515281
    Sold:6/27/2008
    Sale Price: $490,000

  35. grim says:

    Frank,

    Jump back in, double down, you can’t lose in Hoboken.

  36. grim says:

    Scotch Plains Mega Comp Killer

    517 Cicilia Place

    Purchased: 6/15/2006
    Purchase Price: $389,000

    MLS# 2512061
    Sold: 6/27/2008
    Sale Price: $287,500

    26% off the 2006 sales price!

  37. IVV says:

    Frank:

    I’ve always liked the comparison of income to property value–it makes a lot of sense to me. However, I don’t have a good reference point for how nice of a property people are supposed to have for 3x, 3.5x, 4x income.

    What should a home for a $50K household look like? $30k? $75K? $100K? $200K?

    Perhaps we’re all supposed to be living in POS capes?

  38. grim says:

    For the Sussex crew.

    Newton Comp Killer

    23 Park Ave

    Purchased: 9/12/2005
    Purchase Price: $393,750

    MLS# 2469605
    Sold: 6/27/2008
    Sale Price: $382,500

  39. grim says:

    Hopatcong Comp Killer

    332 Knox Way

    Purchased: 11/21/2006
    Purchase Price: $210,000

    MLS# 2516427
    Sold: 6/26/2008
    Sale Price: $175,000

  40. grim says:

    Mortgage Fraud?

    10 Carolina Ave, Newark NJ

    Purchased: 8/9/2006
    Purchase Price: $195,000

    MLS# 2516055
    Sold: 6/26/2008
    Sale Price: $50,500

    75% below 2006 purchase price

  41. grim says:

    Pay attention to those sold dates folks, this isn’t cherry picking historical data, these are all fresh sales.

  42. Ben says:

    Thanks for the info, Grim!

    The house on Lorraine sits almost directly on top of 24, which may account for the lengthy DOM.

  43. grim says:

    The house on Lorraine sits almost directly on top of 24, which may account for the lengthy DOM.

    The high DOM is more likely due to the fact that it is overpriced.

    Based on my favorite Lowball Analysis, properties that stay on market greater than 181 days are overpriced by 15.6% on average.

    With an OLP of $499,900 and 232 days on market, the sale price should be nearer to $422,000.

  44. lookout below says:

    Check out how prices are suddenly crumbling in Maplewood. Inventory of homes between 500K and 600K is getting larger every day. Saw a place when it first went on the market at 650K. Today, month and a half later, it’s at 575K. They bought a couple years ago at 585K, put an entire 3rd floor master suite in, and are kissing all that money goodbye – and then some.

    Will Maplewood’s Pottery Barn Renaissance survive the bear?

  45. Fiddy Cents on the Dollar says:

    These recent Comp Killers are real eye-openers. There’s desparation written in those new asking prices. And if they haven’t sold by mid-July, they are toast.

    Interesting is that most were purchased in 2005 – 2006. Almost certainly, there was a toxic mortgage involved to get these people in at the peak. When that 3/27 kicks into high gear….the slide will deepen. Either sell it or set fire to it, but the new payment will finish it off.

  46. Joeycasz says:

    Hey Grim,

    We saw this house two weeks ago in Union and i believe it’s going to be a future comp killer. Any thoughts?

    MLS # 2497685

  47. grim says:

    Joey,

    Already is.

    421 Forest Drive, Union NJ

    Purchased: 12/29/2005
    Purchase Price: $379,900

    MLS# 2433769
    Listed: 8/9/2007
    OLP: $399,900
    LP: $379,900
    DOM: 183
    Expired

    MLS# 2497685
    Listed: 3/12/2008
    OLP: $359,800
    LP: $349,800
    DOM: 108
    Active

  48. Rich In NNJ says:

    Frank (32),

    Right now things are better than ever when it comes to RE in NJ.

    Really?

    Better than ever?

    REALLY?!

    Statements like that put you somewhere between Realtor and clueless wanker.

  49. lisoosh says:

    Everything is still badly overpriced. Future comp killer or no.

  50. Clotpoll says:

    Fiddy (45)-

    Newest development in Hunterdon/Somerset are owners of 800K-1 MIL homes knocking 50-100K off the price on the first reduction. I’ve never seen that before. My own conclusion is that these houses get absolutely no showings, and reality hits hard and fast.

    Amazing what happens when the owner can’t ignore the ticking timebomb of a looming mortgage reset.

    We’re right on the precipice of another big drop in prices. These huge price revisions I’m seeing come daily. There were also 3 lis pendens filed last week on 1 MIL+ homes in Bridgewater.

    Hell, the lis pendens filings are coming so fast now, I’ve had to hire help to stay on top of them.

  51. Clotpoll says:

    Rich (48)-

    He’s not “somewhere between”. I’d place him solidly in the “wanker” camp.

  52. Clotpoll says:

    In Albany right now for a soccer tournament.

    Lead story in the paper today?

    Giant mortgage fraud/flip scheme, involving 56 local homes.

    Armageddon is nigh.

  53. lisoosh says:

    From another forum:

    “Is there a time when you know you did the research, made the calls, inspected the smallest details, questioned everything,… but in the end you sit in your new home drinking a beer and feel dissatisfied with your decision?

    I wish I was a renter again. I didn’t care. Yes there was 1k layers of paint on the wall. Yes there was a 1957 kitchen. Yes the tile was coming up. Yes the place was way too small for me and my family…. But… I didn’t care. I didn’t have to do anything… It wasn’t my responsibility… No special assessments I must pay… No 1/4 million dollar mortgage on my back… I could just leave..Walk a way.. Find another place to live… 2 more months until the lease was up.. Let’s find another place.. was it throwing money down the drain… Sooo.. What do you think I’m doing now – oh yeah – I’m throwing it to banks who will invest in bad loans and post enormous losses… which in turn shakes up the economy which then makes my once secure job insecure..

    In the End do I think i made the right decision… I did all the research, asked all the questions, got “good deals” when I had to, met 90% of my requirements,…. …. … did I make the right decision… … … I don’t know…. and that’s killing me….”

  54. lisoosh says:

    One of the responses to the above is classic -the jist is if you don’t love owning a home, you must have some deep-seated issues and maybe a personality disorder:

    “You’re building equity. You can get an equity loan at some point. Your issues with the bank and the economy are separate from your house – commitment issue. You obviously didn’t relish having your own yard to landscape the way you want. Do you have a family or do you live alone? maybe you need a roommate.”

  55. frank says:

    Rich In NNJ,
    NJ and NY are places where I and my friends still make a lot of money in RE. Call it any way you like it, things are still gooooooood.

  56. frank says:

    “Jump back in, double down, you can’t lose in Hoboken.”
    It’s hard when prices have doubled since 2005 but I am looking, give me some comp killers for Hoboken.

  57. grim says:

    lis,

    He clearly doesn’t value the intangible benefits of homeownership.

    There is nothing more satisfying than trying to fix a plumbing leak at 3 in the morning. Birth of a child? Nope. Wedding? Nope. Winning the lottery? Nope.

    When you are down on both knees, water up to your stomach, and rusty wrench in hand, you’ll look up at that pipe, and in the midst of your homeownership baptism, you’ll find Nirvana.

  58. frank says:

    “Will Maplewood’s Pottery Barn Renaissance survive the bear?”
    You need a gun to survive in Maplewood, unless the house is free and it comes with M16, why would you want to live there?

  59. grim says:

    It’s hard when prices have doubled since 2005 but I am looking, give me some comp killers for Hoboken.

    No problem, just pay for me to join the Hudson County MLS. See that donate button up top?

  60. lisoosh says:

    grim Says:
    June 28th, 2008 at 9:58 am
    lis,

    “He clearly doesn’t value the intangible benefits of homeownership.”

    Obviously not.

    The time to buy will be when jokers like this are in a minority so small they sit in the corner with their mouths glued shut for fear of being b*tch slapped.

    And it’s coming.

  61. frank says:

    Hudson County is not part of GSMLS?

  62. BC Bob says:

    “Right now things are better than ever when it comes to RE in NJ.”

    Frank,

    I can only wish; you being the contra party to all my trades.

    Did you attend chart class this AM? Next time bring Grim’s charts. See how your prof interprets those.

  63. grim says:

    Hudson County is not part of GSMLS?

    No sir, MLSGuide/Liberty Board. I belong to the Realsource (Bergen) Board, and am a member of GSMLS and NJMLS.

  64. grim says:

    If I’m going to foot the bill, Monmouth/Ocean MLS membership and PA licensure/Bucks Co. board membership are both way above Hudson Co.

  65. lookout below says:

    “You need a gun to survive in Maplewood, unless the house is free and it comes with M16, why would you want to live there?”

    So you’re saying it’s a great time for real estate in NJ as long as it doesn’t have any black people close by?

  66. Timmy says:

    The bottom line is –people are finally waking up and realizing that in order to sell a house they are going to have to price it to sell. Unfortunately most people have charged themselves to death and lived beyond their means for so long that they don’t have 50-60,000 liquid dollars to shell out at the table when it comes time to take that big hit….So people will slowly bleed to death each month paying this crazy mortgage payment, all the while taking prozac…drinking heavily… and generally being miserable in their lives.

    Sad to see really. I rent…man I’m so much happier.Boy isn’t that American dream of owning a house great??

  67. bairen says:

    #67 Timmy,

    you forgot binge eating.

  68. Timmy says:

    Actually I want to laugh my ass off when I watch these games. Comp-killers??? These aren’t comp-killers…open up your eyes…this is the norm…home prices are falling…they have to since they were enormously inflated. This is the market adjustment…..Comp-killers as you call them are the norms not the exceptions anymore so wake the frick up.

  69. 3b says:

    #1 grim: Can we use the word recesssion now, instead of national economic slow down?

  70. grim says:

    I prefer downclimb, ala Paulson.

  71. 3b says:

    #28 frank: Why do you contradict yourself? You cannot have it both ways. You are rambling incoherently now.

  72. grim says:

    I’ll post photos to accompany these listings tomorrow morning.

  73. 3b says:

    #32 frank: Iam no expert regarding Hoboken real esate. But I know that prices there have not doubled since 2005. You are surely joking.

  74. 3b says:

    #63 BC Bob: He is too far gone to understand you. All we can do is pray for him.

  75. RelievedinFlorida says:

    oh yea…binge eating…night sweats…divorces…ritalin zombified kids…general lack of enegy…..low quality of life….worry..anxiety…The american dream is alive and well. Bank gets fat, Local government gets fat off property taxes…insurance companies get fat off increased rates. But hey wait a minute you can build equity!!! errrrr….wait never mind

  76. bairen says:

    #28 frank,

    you are contradicting yourself. If the median income in Madison is $82k, how come capes were going for 550k at the peak? Capes are one of the lowest priced typed houses, yet they were going for 7 times median income?

    There’s already 1 cape at 375 that is nicer then anything I saw in the 47k to 499k range a year ago. I wouldn’t be surprised to see capes in the 285 to 325k range in Madison this time next year as this bust picks up speed and FBs arms or the even more toxic option arms reset. But hey, they got to live in MADISON for a few years, even though they took out a suicide mortgage and were leading a lifestyle they could not afford.

    Hope they had a good time.

  77. BC Bob says:

    “Right now things are better than ever when it comes to RE in NJ.”

    Frank,

    S.O. listing, now 399K, short sale. 550-600K in 2005? Obviously, this seller has not received your Grubman like analysis/report.

    I just pray that you are short gold.

    http://njsections.travidia.com/SS/Page.aspx?sstarg=&facing=false&secid=38558&pagenum=39&adid=1090490&zoomid=2245898#2245898

  78. jamil says:

    njpatient from previous thread:
    “Thanks for your insight. What median FICO do asians have and how does that compare with the mean of other groups? Thanks in advance for not knowing the answer. Google is your friend.”

    Well, here are the stats from ultra left-wing source (wikipedia):
    “the results of a 2004 Texas Department of Insurance study found that of the 2 million Texans surveyed, “black policyholders had average credit scores that were 10% to 35% worse than those of white policyholders. Hispanics’ average scores were 5% to 25% worse, while Asians’ scores were roughly the same as whites.”

    wiki

    So who is not knowing the answer? Few weeks ago you got caught for spreading lies about my comments, then when called for it, you tried to weasel your way out of it without apologizing. Somehow I’m not surprised that you continue your BS here.

  79. Seneca says:

    I admit I am loathe to post anecdotes supporting the “bubble-proof” camp but here goes. I know a couple who bought in Westfield in 2002 and just sold for a 22% gain this month, so about a 3.5% gain per year. Normal right? If you are walking in their shoes, you can say “bubble, what bubble?”

    Yes, had they sold two years ago maybe they would have shown 5% gains year over year but they sure aren’t ‘hurt’ by the market now. I’m just saying, its a matter of perspective.

  80. watergapnomad says:

    The Nutley/North Bloomfield area has been holding up alright too. There were notable price declines in 07, but they seem to have leveled off somewhat in 08. I’m not quite sure what to make of it.

    I think though, that with the increase in Wall Street layoffs, fewer overall house sales, and a still weakening economy, that this situation will change for the worse by the end of the year.

  81. jamil says:

    more detailed Wall Street bonus info:
    WS bonuses

    Pretty impressive numbers for junior analysts. $100k bonus for working 80hr per week and losing billions?

  82. njpatient says:

    Mr. Beer

    “Re: 42 Lorraine, 20K away from 2003 sale price and they added roof, furnace and central air in 2008.Ouch. That’s gonna leave a mark…”

    Simple logic would appear to dictate that making home improvements causes the home to lose its value.
    ;-)

  83. lisoosh says:

    jamil Says:

    “Well, here are the stats from ultra left-wing source (wikipedia):”

    ?????

    Wiki is open source, meaning any Jack-a$$ can add to it at any time, making it neither authoritative, nor left wing.

  84. lisoosh says:

    Wonder what the median income in this area will be after everything shakes out.

  85. dblko says:

    [82] Jamil,

    aren’t bonuses paid usually at year end or in the beginning of the year? What bonus numbers there they talking about now in the middle of the year?

  86. Laughing all the way says:

    Great stuff as usual, fellas. Pretty unreal some of these houses. Not only are almost all of them hideously ugly, but the prices REMAIN outrageous.

    Pat – We almost went to check out a few open houses in Bucks today. Then we decided to go on this wine tasting tour. Hopefully, will be fun!

    Anyone on this board ever buy a house with an in-law suite? How did that experience work out? We’re contemplating it because my in-laws are going to be retired in a month, and because NJ taxes pensions, and PA doesn’t, they are seriously considering coming out here to Bucks. And it’s not like they’ll need a big place for just the two of them, so we’ve brought this idea back into play.

  87. jamil says:

    lisoosh 84: “Wiki is open source, meaning any Jack-a$$ can add to it at any time, making it neither authoritative, nor left wing.”

    Open Source has nothing to do with this. In several controversial topics, such as global warming, holocaust/israel/palestine, islamism and Bush, wikipedia is dominated by committed far-left activists who just write their own biased opinions and delete everything else (Global Warming is perhaps the most well-known topic for this). Maybe left-wingers have more free-time (work in public sector/academia rather than in private business) than right-wingers so they have more time to control it.

    #86: I don’t know about that..Check dealbreaker site. Maybe they are paid twice a year or junior analysts start in the summer so their bonuses are always paid in the summer(?)

  88. frank says:

    “aren’t bonuses paid usually at year end or in the beginning of the year? ”
    1st year analysts start in June and they get their bonuses year later. The bonus number is the same for all analysts for most part.

  89. frank says:

    jamil,
    Congress is going to pass the housing bailout after the 4th July recess. What are you going to do then?

  90. jamil says:

    Frank: I think it sucks but what I should be doing? It is bad for everybody, except corrupt politicians, speculators and National Association of Liartors (NAR).

    Anyway, I hope Bush will veto it.

  91. frank says:

    “you are contradicting yourself. If the median income in Madison is $82k, how come capes were going for 550k at the peak? Capes are one of the lowest priced typed houses, yet they were going for 7 times median income?”

    How am I contradicting myself?
    My point is that home prices have only dropped very little in NJ and they need to drop a lot to get back to long term trends, but to my surprise they are still selling at mind bugling levels. Which tells me that the RE market is still hot in NJ.

  92. frank says:

    Jamil,
    Did you write to your congressman and senator yet?

  93. frank says:

    Jamil,
    According to NYT the bailout plan about to be passed is not big enough.

    “When Congress started fashioning a sweeping rescue package for struggling homeowners earlier this year, 2.6 million loans were in trouble. But the problem has grown considerably in just six months and is continuing to worsen.”

    http://www.nytimes.com/2008/06/29/business/29housing.html?_r=1&hp&oref=login

  94. kettle1 says:

    for the finance gurus around here

    http://crap.fi/archive/6497.jpg

  95. njrebear says:

    750 Muhlenberg employees, comprised of full-time, part-time and per diem staff, who will lose their jobs due to the hospital closure

    http://web.doh.state.nj.us/apps2/documents/bc/recommendation_muhlenberg_regional_med_ctr_0608.pdf

  96. njpatient says:

    79 jamil

    So you tell me what fico asians had in texas in 2004? Why not just say “I don’t know the answer”?

    When you view everything through the lens of race, jamil, don’t be surprised that you get called racist. After all, that’s the definition of the word.

  97. njpatient says:

    Although in the latest skirmish between frank and jamil, I’ll take jamil’s side.

  98. afe says:

    Comp killer Basking Ridge

    MLS: 2519082

    LP: 749k
    OLP: 799k
    bought 10/26/05 815k

    6% commission/ $111k loss

  99. afe says:

    sorry that is LP: 759k
    6% commission/$102k loss

  100. Confused In NJ says:

    I am finally seeing cracks in the dyke in places like New Providence & Berkley Heights. I anticipate that by 8/09 you should see prices retrace by about $150K so that low end condo’s around $350K becomes $200K, middle end splits around $600K becomes $450K and lower upper end colonials around $750K becomes $600K. That reopens the market for private sector workers salary/mortgage metric. Of course, increased recession unemployment distorts the whole picture. Unless Corzine hires all Private Sector layoffs at Public Sector Salaries & Benefits.

  101. lisoosh says:

    #88 – Jamil. Spend a moment or two at Free Republic, LGF or a thousand other sites and I think you will find the rabid right has more than enough people with time on their hands to spew online.

    Ranting inanely is the provinence of neither right nor left.

  102. lisoosh says:

    #98, Patient – tough choice huh?

  103. bairen says:

    #101 Confused

    I’m seeing the same thing.

    So much for train towns with good schools can only go up, or at least sideways no matter what happens.

  104. Housing Purgatory says:

    Grim, etal,
    Can anyone tell me status on MLS 2813459..
    I lost track on this one..

  105. njpatient says:

    Hey Rich – almost forgot to say a big Thank You for the BC comp killers. Great stuff!

  106. njpatient says:

    soosh

    “Patient – tough choice huh?”

    Yep – like watching a steel cage match between Zell Miller and James Inhofe.

  107. PA says:

    Touring the area’s foreclosed homes

    They walked into the first house on the tour, and found it to be a little small. They looked at the water damage on the ceiling in the basement of another house and decided that indicated too many potential problems.

    The next house was a little dark.

    http://www.dailyrecord.com/apps/pbcs.dll/article?AID=/20080628/UPDATES01/80628001

  108. John says:

    When I pick up take out tommorrow I will ask the lady her FICO score. I am sure it is all the same for asians anyhow so why ask more than one asian.

  109. njpatient says:

    I’m looking at Brigadoon listings every day (and have been since 2005) and I can say that, although the stock is still laughably overpriced, it’s laughably overpriced at a level that is easily 10% below peak.

  110. rhymingrealtor says:

    2813459..

    Under contract 6/26/2008 olp 459,000

    lp 439,000

    KL

  111. jamil says:

    ouch.

    “BECAUSE IT’S NOT AS IF WE NEED MORE ENERGY:”
    US halts solar energy projects over environment fears

    “Okay: Nukes are out, coal is filthy, wind power destroys Ted Kennedy’s view, and solar leads to “environment fears.” Do they just want us all to freeze in the dark? Pretty much, I’d say.”

  112. Mikeinwaiting says:

    Jamil All for developing energy smartly & not recking the environment but these tree huggers are a..holes. When their kids are cold & the lights don’t go on they will sing a different tune.

  113. jamil says:

    Mike: Unfortunately, they are now in charge of US energy policy.

    Anyway, learjet liberals’ kids won’t suffer. Just check the energy consuming mega mansions where these a**holes (Edwards, Gore, fat-Kennedy) live. They are happy to block wind and solar power projects in their neighborhood as they won’t suffer. It is only the riff-raff who suffers.

  114. grim says:

    The next house was a little dark.

    What did they expect by going on a non-NJRE bus tour?

  115. Mikeinwaiting says:

    jmail 114 That can’t be they are the party of the little people. Not to say the repubs didn’t screw up the last 8 years. They are all a bunch of short sited self seeking greedy bastards.

  116. Mikeinwaiting says:

    Grim by the way thanks for the Sussex CT stuff. You could fill the site with the stuff up here in Vernon but then again who would care but me. Not necessary anyway I do my own homework.

  117. Rich In NNJ says:

    Fair Lawn Comp Killer!

    95 BLUE HILL AVE

    Sold: $425,000 9/15/2005

    MLS#: 2811101
    OLP: $418,500 3/19/2008
    Sold: $401,000 6/27/2008

  118. Mikeinwaiting says:

    That’s Sussex cty, auto spell check don’t you know.

  119. sas says:

    Kristine Marcy and Bruce McConnell are helping their Suite 450 associates to `manage’ the Obama presidential election campaign through the unlawful custody of a bogus Hawaiian birth certificate which, if exposed, would prove that Barack Hussein Obama is not a natural born American and therefore he cannot be president.

    SAS

  120. sas says:

    “As Obama stonewalls on uncertified birth certificate, official doubts mount”

    http://tinyurl.com/5nqovf

    SAS

  121. Housing Purgatory says:

    111
    Thanks rhymingrealtor…I’d love to see what that sells for..I can’t believe that duplexes sell for more than regular houses around there. There are a lot of houses listed less than that but the duplexes seem to be more updated than the regular houses…

  122. Sean says:

    re: 121 -Sas nothing to see here move along, since Mccain had a Senate resolution passed in April to recognize him as a natural born citizen of the U.S since he was born in Panama. Obama and Hillary were cosponsors.

    http://thomas.loc.gov/cgi-bin/query/D?c110:3:./temp/~c110ur5cqq::

  123. Confused In NJ says:

    MEYRIN, Switzerland – The most powerful atom-smasher ever built could make some bizarre discoveries, such as invisible matter or extra dimensions in space, after it is switched on in August.

    But some critics fear the Large Hadron Collider could exceed physicists’ wildest conjectures: Will it spawn a black hole that could swallow Earth? Or spit out particles that could turn the planet into a hot dead clump?

    The Mayans may not have anticipated this!

  124. SUV comp killers! My car’s value has dropped from $16,000 to $11,000 in two months, according to Kelley Blue Book. Is that possible? Guess it’s time to take a page from the world of real estate and slash the price.

  125. Sean says:

    re: #124 confused – Remember the Texas Supercollider project? The project was canceled by Congress in 1993 because costs rose from about 3 billion to 12 billion, they completed about 14 miles of tunnels and spent 2 billion before congress pulled the plug. I believe it was supposed to be twice the size of the collider now being completed in Switzerland.

    Hopefully the thousands of physicists working on the European Supercollider will come up with cold fusion, and better ways to travel, such as a time machine.

  126. njrebear says:

    http://money.cnn.com/2008/06/23/news/economy/local_government_layoffs/index.htm?postversion=2008062308

    State, city layoffs[2008]: 45,000 and counting

    Tennessee plans to cut 2,000 positions, or about 5% of that state’s work force, according to the CBPP. New Jersey is looking at cutting, 3,000 jobs while Ohio may trim 2,700 positions. The Detroit News reports that Detroit may lay off 1,300 workers after July 1 if the City Council doesn’t sell the Detroit-Windsor Tunnel.

  127. njpatient says:

    125 life

    Don’t just give it away!!!!

  128. Confused In NJ says:

    127.Sean Says:
    June 28th, 2008 at 11:25 pm
    re: #124 confused – Remember the Texas Supercollider project? The project was canceled by Congress in 1993 because costs rose from about 3 billion to 12 billion, they completed about 14 miles of tunnels and spent 2 billion before congress pulled the plug. I believe it was supposed to be twice the size of the collider now being completed in Switzerland.

    Hopefully the thousands of physicists working on the European Supercollider will come up with cold fusion, and better ways to travel, such as a time machine.

    Yes I do. A scientist on this project say’s there is only a 1 in 50,000,000 chance they will destroy the world. Pretty good odds, maybe. Same as the lottery.

  129. Rob says:

    Does anyone know a good source as to how to find a buyers agent? Its so difficult to talk to agents about low balling and discussing reality in terms of some price movement, that I’ve about had it with the lot.

    Thanks all!

  130. BC Bob says:

    “Thank You for the BC comp killers.”

    jnp,

    Patient, lighten up.

  131. BC Bob says:

    njp,

    Prices 10% off peak in B’gdn. Current asking or current closed, 10% off peak?

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